TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 12, 2025

1. ORCL Capital Expenditures (AI) +225% Year over Year

Bespoke


2. EFA Developed International Stocks Hits All-Time Highs…Just Got Above 2008 Levels

Google


3. U.S. Tech Weight vs. International …U.S. Tech 33% of Stock Market vs. International 9.6%

BlackRock


4. Summer vs. Rest of Year Stock Market Returns

Dorsey Wright Nasdaq


5. Equity Flows to Europe

Paychart Book


6. Countries Export to Russia’s Neighbors to Get Around Bans

The Brookings Institution’s Robin Brooks has been chronicling how countries have been exporting to Russia’s neighbors to get around bans. Now he’s finding China shipping to other countries in what he says is “obviously” transshipments to avoid tariffs. “Thailand and Vietnam look bonkers,” says Brooks.

MarketWatch


7. American Upswing in Energy Production Across the Board

ZeroHedge


8. Disappearances Surging in Mexico

Semafor


9. What Does Your Mortgage Really Costs?

Eric Soda Spilled Coffee You can see the actual cost of the mortgage isn’t what you started it at. The interest really changes that. The true cost to own a home is much costlier than you think.

Spilled Coffee


10. World fertility rates in ‘unprecedented decline’, UN says

Via the BBC: In a survey of 14,000 people, one in five respondents said they haven’t had or expect they won’t have the number of children they want

Namrata Nangia and her husband have been toying with the idea of having another child since their five-year-old daughter was born.

But it always comes back to one question: ‘Can we afford it?’

She lives in Mumbai and works in pharmaceuticals, her husband works at a tyre company. But the costs of having one child are already overwhelming – school fees, the school bus, swimming lessons, even going to the GP is expensive.

It was different when Namrata was growing up. “We just used to go to school, nothing extracurricular, but now you have to send your kid to swimming, you have to send them to drawing, you have to see what else they can do.”

According to a new report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the UN agency for reproductive rights, Namrata’s situation is becoming a global norm.

The agency has taken its strongest line yet on fertility decline, warning that hundreds of millions of people are not able to have the number of children they want, citing the prohibitive cost of parenthood and the lack of a suitable partner as some of the reasons.

UNFPA surveyed 14,000 people in 14 countries about their fertility intentions. One in five said they haven’t had or expect they won’t have their desired number of children.

The countries surveyed – South Korea, Thailand, Italy, Hungary, Germany, Sweden, Brazil, Mexico, US, India, Indonesia, Morocco, South Africa, and Nigeria – account for a third of the global population.

They are a mix of low, middle and high-income countries and those with low and high fertility. UNFPA surveyed young adults and those past their reproductive years.

“The world has begun an unprecedented decline in fertility rates,” says Dr Natalia Kanem, head of UNFPA.

“Most people surveyed want two or more children. Fertility rates are falling in large part because many feel unable to create the families they want. And that is the real crisis,” she says.

“Calling this a crisis, saying it’s real. That’s a shift I think,” says demographer Anna Rotkirch, who has researched fertility intentions in Europe and advises the Finnish government on population policy.

“Overall, there’s more undershooting than overshooting of fertility ideals,” she says. She has studied this at length in Europe and is interested to see it reflected at a global level.

She was also surprised by how many respondents over 50 (31%) said they had fewer children than they wanted.

The survey, which is a pilot for research in 50 countries later this year, is limited in its scope. When it comes to age groups within countries for example, the sample sizes are too small to make conclusions.

But some findings are clear.

In all countries, 39% of people said financial limitations prevented them from having a child.

The highest response was in Korea (58%), the lowest in Sweden (19%).

In total, only 12% of people cited infertility – or difficulty conceiving – as a reason for not having the number of children they wanted to. But that figure was higher in countries including Thailand (19%), the US (16%), South Africa (15%), Nigeria (14%) and India (13%).

“This is the first time that [the UN] have really gone all-out on low fertility issues,” says Prof Stuart Gietel-Basten, demographer at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Until recently the agency focused heavily on women who have more children than they wanted and the “unmet need” for contraception.

Still, the UNFPA is urging caution in response to low fertility.

“Right now, what we’re seeing is a lot of rhetoric of catastrophe, either overpopulation or shrinking population, which leads to this kind of exaggerated response, and sometimes a manipulative response,” says Dr Kanem.

“In terms of trying to get women to have more children, or fewer.”

She points out that 40 years ago China, Korea, Japan, Thailand and Turkey were all worried their populations were too high. By 2015 they wanted to boost fertility.

“We want to try as far as possible to avoid those countries enacting any kind of panicky policies,” says Prof Gietel-Basten.

“We are seeing low fertility, population ageing, population stagnation used as an excuse to implement nationalist, anti-migrant policies and gender conservative policies,” he says.

UNFPA found an even bigger barrier to children than finances was a lack of time. For Namrata in Mumbai that rings true.

She spends at least three hours a day commuting to her office and back. When she gets home she is exhausted but wants to spend time with her daughter. Her family doesn’t get much sleep.

“After a working day, obviously you have that guilt, being a mom, that you’re not spending enough time with your kid,” she says.

“So, we’re just going to focus on one.”

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 11, 2025

1. American House of Reps Families Trade Like Hedge Funds During Liberation Day Volatility

DAY TRADERS– As markets tanked in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in early April, members of Congress and their families made hundreds of stock trades, shining a spotlight on a controversial practice that some lawmakers have pushed to ban.  From April 2, when Trump launched sweeping tariffs to April 8, the day before he paused many of them, more than a dozen House lawmakers and their family members made more than 700 stock trades, according to a WSJ analysis.  The trading took place during one of the wildest stretches for global financial markets of the past decade. The S&P 500 tanked more than 4.5% for two consecutive sessions shortly after Liberation Day and recorded the biggest fall since the March 2020 market crash. More than $6 trillion in market value vanished.

Dave Lutz Jones Trading


2. Earnings Estimates Moving Higher

SPX NTM EPS. “S&P 500 forward EPS estimate hits a fresh all-time high. $280.”

Edward Jones via @mikezaccardi


3. IWM Small Cap ETF Right Below 200-Day

StockCharts


4. IWC Micro-Cap ETF Closes Above 200-Day

StockCharts


5. Apple Still -20% Off Highs

StockCharts


6. Bonds Market Value vs. Stocks Lowest Since 1960s

Barchart


7. Gold Chopping Sideways Since April

ZeroHedge


8. Public Companies Holding Bitcoin

Perplexity


9. 75% of Companies Have Already Raised Prices in Response to Tariffs, Fed Survey Finds

Via Barron’s: Early signs indicate that many businesses are quickly raising prices for shoppers to cover most of the higher costs from sweeping U.S. tariffs on imported goods.

Among businesses that are facing higher operational costs due to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, roughly 75% are imparting at least some of the their cost increases on consumers, according to an analysis released Wednesday of the New York Fed’s Regional Business Survey of firms in the New York and Northern New Jersey region.

Almost a third of manufacturers and about 45% of service firms report they have fully passed along all their cost increases due to higher tariff rates, the survey said. Meanwhile, another 45% of manufacturers and a third of service firms said they shifted some—but not all—of the cost increases to consumers.

It’s worth noting, however, that the NY Fed conducted the survey between May 2 and May 9. That was before the Trump administration reduced the tariff rate on goods from China to 30% from 145%—and before the recent court rulings around tariffs at the end of May.

The latest survey results found that firms implemented these price increases fairly rapidly.

“Over half of both manufacturers and service firms said they raised prices within a month of experiencing tariff-related cost increases—many within a day or week,” NY researchers found.

Tariffs have a broad impact, with about 90% of manufacturers and 75% of service firms surveyed reporting that they utilize some form of imported goods.

Manufacturers reported that the average tariff rate they paid as of early May was about 35%. Service firms reported an estimated average tariff rate of 26%. That marks a significant increase for both types of businesses from the rates they reported six months ago.

“Firms’ costs of tariffed goods may not have increased by as much as the tariffs, in part, because importers may have switched towards suppliers in other countries or in the United States; foreign suppliers may also have lowered their prices to help offset the tariffs,” NY Fed researchers noted.


10. Behind the Curtain-The Scariest AI Reality

Axios

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 10, 2025

1. Vanguard Growth Fund Right at Previous Highs

StockCharts


2. Magnificent 7 Volatility vs. Market

The Irrelevant Investor


3. Sector Performance Year to Date

Bespoke Research


4. Stablecoin Now Major Holder of U.S. Short-Term Debt

Ritzholz


5. Stablecoins Risk Stack

Per TBAC’s report:

Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value by pegging their worth to a reserve asset, such as fiat currency (USD). The intended stability of stablecoins has made them a key enabler for payments and as a store of value in on-chain ecosystems.

The graphic below, from its report, shows that some stablecoins are incredibly secure, as they are backed by Treasuries, repo transactions, and money market funds. However, as you move down the list of types of stablecoin, others are supported by riskier assets, algorithms, and smart contracts.

VettaFi


6. Electricity Generated by Solar Uptrend…But Stocks No Rally

Wolf Street


7. Top 10 States by Defense Spending

ZeroHedge


8. Ranking Sovereign Wealth Funds

CRE Analyst


9. First Time More Babies Born to Moms 40-44 vs. Teens

Eric Finnigan


10. What’s the Safest Sunscreen for Your Body

Via Mark Hyman, Co-Founder & Chief Medical Officer of Function Health

Right now, plenty of people are rethinking their sunscreen—not because they don’t believe in sun protection, but because they’re uneasy about what’s in the bottle.

Some of the chemical ingredients commonly used to block UV rays—like oxybenzone—have been linked to hormone disruption or skin irritation. Others haven’t been studied as thoroughly as you might expect, especially given how often we use them.

If you’re looking for something safer for your body (and your family), we’ve got you covered. In this article, the Hyman Health team shares the sun protection products we actually keep in our own beach bags—go-to picks made with ingredients you can feel good about.

Why Some Sunscreens Raise Concerns

If you’ve ever flipped over a sunscreen bottle and wondered what those long ingredient names actually mean, you’re not alone. Some of the most common chemical filters have raised red flags for their potential effects on human health and the environment.

Here are a few you may want to avoid:

Oxybenzone and octinoxate: linked to hormone disruption and banned in some locations for harming coral reefs

Homosalate: under review for safety due to potential endocrine-disrupting effects

Octocrylene: can break down into benzophenone, a possible carcinogen

One thing to keep in mind: The biggest concern with these ingredients isn’t occasional use on a beach vacation or a quick swipe on your nose. It’s about cumulative exposure—using them regularly, over large areas of the body, often without realizing what’s in the product.

If you’re in a pinch, and the only sunscreen available contains one of these ingredients, it’s still better than getting burned. But when you have options, choosing a cleaner formula is a simple way to lower your overall exposure.

If you’re curious about the research behind these concerns—or want to know how antioxidants from food can strengthen your skin’s natural defenses—check out our full guide to sunscreen safety.

How to Choose a Safer Sunscreen

When it comes to sunscreen, mineral-based formulas are generally your best bet.

Unlike chemical sunscreens, which absorb UV rays and can include ingredients linked to hormone disruption, mineral sunscreens use physical blockers—usually zinc oxide—to sit on top of the skin and reflect UV light.

They start working immediately, are less likely to irritate sensitive skin, and don’t absorb into the bloodstream the way some chemical filters can.

Look for sunscreens that use non-nano zinc oxide, which refers to particle size. Non-nano particles are larger and less likely to be absorbed through the skin, making them a safer choice for both people and the environment.

If you’re trying to figure out whether your sunscreen makes the cut, check out the Environmental Working Group’s (EWG) Guide to Sunscreens. You can search by brand, see how your current product rates, and explore safer options that meet EWG’s strict criteria for ingredient safety and UV protection.

Here are three Hyman Health staff favorites:

  • Annmarie Gianni Sun Love Natural Sunscreen SPF 20 This all-natural, mineral-based sunscreen isn’t rated by EWG, but it’s a team favorite for everyday use. It uses non-nano zinc oxide for broad-spectrum protection and includes antioxidant-rich botanicals. Sunflower seed oil adds hydration and helps support the skin barrier—especially helpful if you’re applying daily. Learn more.
  • Badger Sport Mineral Sunscreen Cream SPF 40 A reliable, water-resistant mineral sunscreen that’s earned a top rating from the EWG. It features non-nano zinc oxide as the active ingredient and keeps the rest of the formula simple: just a few clean ingredients to nourish the skin while you’re out in the sun. Learn more.
  • Sunly Kids Mineral Sunscreen Face Stick SPF 30 This EWG Verified™ sunscreen stick is a convenient, mess-free option for kids. (They also have an adult version.) It uses non-nano zinc oxide for broad-spectrum protection and glides on easily without leaving a heavy residue. The formula is fragrance-free, gentle on sensitive skin, and made with moisturizing ingredients. Learn more.

What about Sunblock Sprays?

If you’ve checked the Environmental Working Group (EWG) sunscreen guide, you might’ve noticed that no spray sunblocks or sunscreens score better than a 3 on their 1–10 hazard scale (where 1 is the safest and 10 is the most concerning).

A 3 isn’t terrible—it often means the ingredients themselves are relatively safe. But even mineral-based sprays that use zinc oxide or titanium dioxide fall short for one big reason: inhalation risk.

When sprayed into the air, small particles can become airborne and enter the lungs, where they may cause harm—especially over time or in children. That concern is enough to drop the product’s overall safety score, even if what’s on your skin is relatively clean.

Sprays also raise another issue: uneven coverage. It’s easy to miss spots or apply too lightly, especially on windy days or when you’re in a hurry. What looks like a fine mist doesn’t always translate to full protection.

If you still prefer a spray, just know the tradeoffs. To minimize the risks and get better coverage, spray it into your hands first, then apply it like a lotion.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 09, 2025

1. Most Bullish Bounce Back from -20% Correction Ever

It’s worth noting how much of a historic run this has been after a 20% drawdown for the S&P 500. It’s on track to have one of the most bullish bounces ever from a 20% drawdown.

Source: Jurrien Timmer  Eric Soda Spilled Coffee Blog https://www.spilledcoffee.co


2. Here is the Historical Forward Data Behind Above Chart

The NASDAQ 100 is just -2% below its all-time high. It was down -20% just 2 months ago. Historically, sharp rallies like this were bullish.

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


3. Biggest Volatility Crash in History

Charlie Bilello


4. AI Adoption Tracker

As for the AI adoption rate, analysts found that as of May, approximately 9.2% of U.S. firms reported using AI in the production of goods or services—up from 7.4% in 4Q24.

ZeroHedge


5. Palantir Retail Trading Favorite….More Trading Volume than Amazon

Amazon, for example, reported that it employed some 1.556 million people at the end of last year. Palantir’s roster was closer to a very large high school, at just 3,936, meaning that the e-commerce giant employs 395x as many people as Palantir, but its shares are less liquid. Even tech juggernaut Apple has been traded less than Palantir.

Sherwood


6. Polymarket Recession Odds Sinking

VettaFi


7. Most of Asia and Europe has Demographic Disasters Coming….Empty Homes

Michael A. Arouet


8. Foreign Buyers Step Back

NYT: Foreign buyers have long powered South Florida’s condo market, but many are now pulling out because of high interest rates, expensive prices and, more recently, restrictive immigration policies.  The Miami Association of Realtors reports that home sales to foreign buyers dropped to 10 percent of all transactions in the region from August 2023 to July 2024, the lowest level since 2015 and a stark drop from 50 percent in 2018.

The study polled nearly 2,400 real estate agents in South Florida’s Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Martin counties. Foreign buyers were defined as those who were not U.S. citizens and whose primary residence was abroad, as well as U.S. visa holders for at least six months and green card holders for less than two years.

NYT


9. The Cost of College in U.S. and the Proposed Cutting of Pell Grants

CNBC

CNBC


10. Focus Requires Subtraction

Via FS:Most people are too loyal to their distractions to ever meet their destiny.

The courage isn’t in taking on more, it’s in cutting off everything that doesn’t feed your goal.

Focus requires subtraction.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 06, 2025

1. Not the Sign of a Top…AAII Bull/Bear Sentiment Survey Just Had 15 Straight Weeks of Negative Readings…5th Longest Streak Ever.  Historically Bullish

What is AAII Sentiment Survey?

Dorsey Wright Nasdaq


2. Not the Sign of a Top…Margin Debt Skyrockets Near Tops in Markets…Going Down in 2025

YCharts


3. Not the Sign of a Top…Investors Bought the Dip Now Selling Rally

Macro Charts


4. MAG 7 Spending Huge of AI Capex Sending Free Cash Flow (FCF) Down

Equities: Excluding NVIDIA, the Magnificent 7’s year-over-year free cash flow growth has turned negative. The sharp rebound in 2023 was driven by cost-cutting and headcount reductions following the “metaverse” bloat, but that tailwind has faded as AI-driven CapEx ramps up, pressuring cash flows once more.

Source: @KevRGordon@StrategasRP Daily Shot Brief


5. Dollar Chart Turning Back Down…Chart to Watch 2025

StocKCharts


6. Weak U.S. Dollar Key to International Equities Reversion to Mean Trade

Capital Group


7. June Bearish Month

Bespoke


8. The Democratic Republic of Congo Produces 76% of World Cobalt

Markets & Mayhem

Perplexity


9. Mexico and Canada 40% of US Steel Imports Last Year

Reuters


10. Ten Science-Based Tools for a More Peaceful Mind

Learn about a few simple strategies for cultivating a peaceful mind.

Key points

  • The body’s stress response includes sympathetic nervous system activation and the release of stress hormones.
  • A relatively simple way to start calming the mind is by using visualization.
  • Research shows spending time in the wilderness, a park, or even your front yard may benefit your well-being.

Via Psychology Today: A peaceful mind may be defined as a state of calmness or tranquility that is free from worry, ruminative thoughts, or other types of busy, frenetic thoughts. Oftentimes, we spend too much time thinking—thinking about what’s to come in the future, what’s happened in the past, or even what’s going on right now. When we do this, we make it difficult for our minds to calm in ways that are good for our well-being (learn more about your well-being with this well-being quiz).

There is much research on how we can decrease our distressing thoughts and calm the body. For example, we know that the body’s stress response includes sympathetic nervous system activation and the release of hormones like cortisol, norepinephrine, and epinephrine (Charmandari, Tsigos, & Chrousos, 2005). All of these make us feel wired, and this makes it difficult to have a peaceful mind. That’s why some of the techniques we’ll discuss below target the body directly. Once we help the body calm down, the mind can more easily follow.

  1. Visualization: A relatively simple way to start calming the mind is by using visualization. To try it, simply imagine yourself in a peaceful place. While visualizing yourself in this place, try to look at the world around you. What do you see, hear, and smell? If you can get your mind to imagine you’re in a place that makes you feel peaceful, your brain and body actually react as if you are in that place (Quoidbach, Wood, & Hansenne, 2009).
  2. Doing things you enjoy: Sometimes we get stuck in a clouded mind when our lives are dull, stagnant, or uninspiring. That’s why doing things you enjoy may help put your mind at ease. Doing fun things can help stimulate your mind so that when you are relaxing, your mind can fully rest.
  3. Going for a swim: Another way to calm the body is to activate the parasympathetic nervous system. Interestingly, immersing the body in cold water helps activate this system (Mourot et al., 2008). So if you’re feeling your mind racing, go for a swim in cold water or even take a cold shower.
  4. Getting outside: Perhaps one of the best ways to put your mind at peace is to get outside. Research shows that spending time in the wilderness, a park, or even your front yard may be beneficial for your well-being (Ulrich & Parsons, 1992). The outdoors offers so many different things that can help soothe the mind—fresh air, sunlight, and breathing in the scent of trees are all good for our health. Try to spend at least 15 minutes outside each day.
  5. Meditation: Meditation is a commonly used strategy when we want a more peaceful mind. The goal with meditation is to clear the mind of thoughts and just be present, often focusing on the breath.
  6. Listening to music: One study showed that listening to peaceful, relaxing music can reduce cortisol, a key stress hormone (Khalfa et al., 2003). In particular, binaural beats (i.e., when two tones with slightly different frequencies are played to each ear) seem to be beneficial and can even help improve performance (Garcia-Argibay, Santed, & Reales, 2019). Given the research, listening to soothing music may be another simple way to put the mind at peace.
  7. Practicing yoga: Yoga can actually reduce cortisol, a key stress hormone (Thirthalli et al., 2013). It’s not entirely clear why, but it might be because yoga involves deep breathing and concentration that prevents us from ruminating on our worries. Doing yoga regularly can be a great way to create a more peaceful mind and a healthier body.
  8. Using mantras: Using mantras may be another way to create a more peaceful mind. Mantras are types of chanting that are often used as part of Eastern meditation techniques. Early research suggested that mantras may be beneficial for well-being. Studies show that mantras can result in short-term decreases in stress and depression (Wolf & Abell, 2003).
  9. Using massage: Massage is another technique that may be helpful. One study showed that 10, 30-minute massages over five weeks led to a lower cortisol response (Field, 2005). Soothing physical touch does indeed seem to relax us. Whether it’s human-to-human interaction or getting aches and pains out of our bodies, massage can be a useful trick for calming the mind and body.
  10. Deep breathing: Deep, controlled breathing has been shown to activate the parasympathetic nervous system. This system is key in helping us de-stress, and it is the counterbalance to the sympathetic nervous system—our fight or flight system. Deep breathing also can quickly reduce anxiety and promote a greater sense of calm (Zope & Zope, 2013). By taking a few deep breaths, we begin to tell our body that things are safe, and the systems that are overactive can begin to mellow.