TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 13, 2025

1. Mag 7–Only two of them (Nvidia and Google) have made a new 52-week high over the last month.

Source: The Leuthold Group via The Daily Chart Report  Eric Soda blog


2. Q3 Earnings Season Starting–Q2 2025 was One of the Best Earnings Seasons in Years…80% of S&P 500 beat estimates, 7th-highest on record-Ned Davis

NDR


3. Auto Loan Delinquency Rate

Barchart


4. Biotech ETF Breakout 3-Year Highs

Stockcharts


5. 3-Year Old Bull Market vs. History

Ryan Detrick


6. Equity ETF Flows NOT Extreme-Irrelevant Investor Blog

The Irrelevant Investor


7. The Top 20 Most Invasive Applications

by Barry Ritholtz

The Big Picture


8. Homelessness Globally

Statista


9. Want to feel calmer? How 20 minutes outside will help

Yasmin Rufo-BBC News 

Spending just 20 minutes in nature can trigger measurable changes inside your body

If you’ve ever felt calmer after a walk in the park or a stroll through the woods, it’s not your imagination – it’s biology. 

Being outdoors can trigger measurable changes inside your body from lowering stress hormones, easing blood pressure and even improving your gut health. 

You don’t have to hike for hours to feel these benefits as maximum impact happens after just 20 minutes, so even a lunchtime walk to the park and a sandwich on a bench a few times a week can benefit your body and mind. 

Here are four ways that being among nature can help improve your health.

Drs Chris and Xand van Tulleken are on a mission to help us take better care of ourselves. Listen to What’s Up Docs? on BBC Sounds or wherever you get your BBC podcasts.”

1. You unconsciously relax

When you see green trees, smell pine and hear gentle rustling leaves or the sound of birdsong, your autonomic nervous system – a network of nerves controlling unconscious processes – responds instantly. 

This can happen on a visit to the local park.

“We see changes in the body such as a lowering of blood pressure, a change in your heart rate variability and your heart beats slower – all associated with physiological calming,” Baroness Kathy Willis, a biodiversity professor at Oxford University, told BBC Radio 4’s What’s Up Docs? podcast.

A UK study, involving nearly 20,000 people, found that those who spent at least a total of 120 minutes every week in greenery were significantly more likely to report good health and higher psychological well-being.

The evidence for the benefits of spending time in nature is compelling enough that some areas have trialled so called green social prescribing connecting people with nature to improve their phsyical and mental health, with a positive impact on happiness and wellbeing.

2. Your hormones reboot

Your body’s hormonal system also joins in the relaxation act. 

Willis says that spending time outdoors triggers our endocrine system and lowers levels of cortisol and adrenaline – the hormones that surge when you’re stressed or anxious. 

“A study found that people in a hotel room for three days who were breathing in Hinoki (Japanese cypress) oil saw a big drop in the adrenaline hormone and a large increase in natural killer cells in their blood.”

Natural killer cells are cells that tackle viruses in the body. The participants in the study still had elevated natural killer cells in their body two weeks after inhaling the smell. 

Essentially nature “calms what needs calming and strengthens what needs strengthening,” is how Prof Ming Kuo from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, summed it up to the BBC.

“A three-day weekend in nature has a huge impact on our virus fighting apparatus and even a month later it can be 24% above baseline.” 

Studies also show smaller but still persistent effects from shorter periods spent in nature, she says.

3. Smell is a powerful sense

Smelling nature is just as powerful as seeing and hearing it. 

The scent of trees and soil is full of organic compounds released by plants and “when you breathe them in, some molecules pass into the bloodstream.” 

Willis says pine is a good example of this as the smell of a pine forest can make you calmer within just 90 seconds and that effect lasts for about 10 minutes. 

You may think that the relaxing effect of nature is all in your mind, but another study found that even very young babies with no memory associated with particular smells, still calmed down when another scent associated with calming, limonene was puffed into the room they were in.

4. Gets good bacteria into your gut

Touching soil can help your body adopt good bacteria 

As well as soothing your mind, nature can also help boost your microbiome as soil and plants are full of good bacteria. 

“They’re the same kinds of good bacteria we pay for in probiotics or drinks,” Willis explains.

Prof Ming Kuo has studied the effect on factors such as infection susceptibility as well as mental health and says breathing in certain ones have the potential to boost your mood; and the antimicrobial chemicals released by plants – called phytoncides – could help fight disease.

Dr Chris van Tulleken says as an infection scientist he sees nature as a positively challenging environment that “tickles your immune system”. 

He gets his children to play with dirt in the forest which then enters their system through the nose or mouth.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0yvdjgn5o


10. Interview with Hetty Green—1800’s Billionaire-Farnam Street Blog

Hetty Green was the richest woman you’ve never heard of. 

In the late 1800s, she built a fortune worth billions today in a world designed to stop her. She was a force that couldn’t be stopped. 

Her strategies still work today. This is the story of how an unwanted daughter became “The Witch of Wall Street,” and a playbook for building lasting wealth and independence. 

+ Listen to the full episode on Apple | Spotify | Web | X

Here are 10 of the maxims I took away from this episode and my research 

  1. “If you can manage your brain, you can manage your fortune.”
  2. The skills to get rich and the skills to stay rich are not the same.
  3. Only invest when downside risk is low and upside is high.
  4. Everyone looks smart when they’re in a good position, and even the smartest person looks like a fool in a bad one.
  5. “I go my own way, take no partners, risk nobody else’s fortune.”
  6. Mix extreme patience with extreme decisiveness.
  7. “Watch your pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves.” 
  8. Move in silence. Keep your positions private.
  9. Never take advantage of people, even when you could.
  10. “Seek elegance rather than luxury, refinement rather than fashion.”

https://fs.blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 10, 2025

1. Largest Retail Investor Demand Ever Last Month

Retail demand. “We have just witnessed the largest Retail Investor buying EVER. Retail has bought over +$100B of US stocks in the last month, the largest 1M buying on record.”

Morgan Stanley via @marlin_capital


2. Earnings Season Kicks Off Next Week….Tech Earnings Still Delivering

Ryan Detrick


3. Softbank Another Leg Up From Japan Bull News…$20-$70 2025

StockCharts


4. Airline ETF Still Below Pre-Covid Highs

StockCharts


5. Silver Has Been Here Twice Before

Sam Ro


6. Public Companies Owning Bitcoin

Bitcoin News


7. Most Large Private Equity Firms are Now Private Credit Firms

BRAMSHILL INVESTMENTS


8. Loss of Trust in American Institutions Continues

Axios


9. Rare Earth ETF Double Off Bottom…Still Below 2023 Highs

StockCharts


10. Are you a high-hope thinker? take the quiz

There’s been a fair amount of research done on whether optimism is good or bad for you, not just in investment outcomes but generally in life satisfaction. On the one hand, some studies conclude, optimism has a highly positive effect on mindset, motivation, entrepreneurial mojo, and even reactions to medical treatments. It helps people recover from setbacks, and increases the chance they will save money for what they expect to be a rosy future. 

On the other hand, too much optimism can backfire. People who are very optimistic may under-estimate risk and over-estimate their abilities. They may visit the doctor less often than they should, employ overly risky investment strategies, and be less happy in the long-run if their expectations for future success are not met. 

If you’re a parent, you’ve probably noticed how most kids allow their over-optimism to take the place of robust planning: until they eventually learn better, they’re so confident things will work out that they often skip the part where they have to actually study for their test, practice for their try-outs, or save money for the thing they might want later.

Optimism is passive– a somewhat complacent belief that good things will probably happen to you, without much need for planning or preparation on your part. This is distinct from the concept of hope, which is “the glass is half full”, but also implies that you can impact your future satisfaction by actions you take. 

One of the founders of the Positive Psychology movement in the 1990s was a research scientist named C.R. Snyder, author of the influential 1994 book The Psychology of Hope. In it he argued that a better predictor of life satisfaction is whether you have a strong combination of agency (the motivational energy to set and pursue goals) and “way-power” (the confidence that you will be able to find a way to attain your goals).

If you’re curious, you can take the same quiz thousands of research subjects have taken over the last 30+ years:

Contessa Capital Advisors

Source: The Psychology of Hope, C.R. Snyder

Better yet, try it with your kids and talk about the results over dinner.

To score the quiz, points are from 1 to 6 with the highest being “All of the Time”. Source: The Psychology of Hope, C.R. Snyder

Beyond his hope scale, some characteristics Snyder ascribed to “high-hope” people (quiz score over 24) include a propensity to downplay negatives and focus on problem-solving, a sense of humor even during times of struggle, a tendency to care about their physical health, and a social network they can call on for support. 

All this raises the obvious question: what are all these people hoping for? 

Snyder’s research showed that high-hope people don’t just set goals; they connect them to something larger, and generate multiple strategies for getting there. That’s what allows them to bounce back when life blocks the first route. 

A meta-goal is bigger than any single outcome. It’s the overarching aim that organizes your smaller goals. For example, “being healthy and energetic as I age” is a meta-goal. The daily sub-goals under it might be as simple as exercising three times a week or getting enough sleep. If one pathway fails — say you get injured and can’t run — the meta-goal still stands, and you can find another path, like swimming or yoga.

You can train yourself to think more hopefully by setting meaningful goals, breaking them into doable steps, and brainstorming alternate routes when you hit obstacles. Even small habits — reframing a setback as “just one blocked path,” or practicing saying “what’s another way I could try this?” — are productive.

When I work with clients I include a statement of financial purpose—effectively a set of meta-goals–in their action plan. Like an investment policy statement, it’s the umbrella for the smaller sub-goals related to how much money to spend or save and how much risk is worth taking. It’s also a chance to practice anticipating different pathways. 

Meta-goals aren’t just for financial plans. Since we’re talking about hope, it’s worth mentioning the amazing, inimitable Jane Goodall, who died this week at age 91 after a lifetime of education and conservation. She often spoke about her four reasons for hope — the energy of youth, the power of the human brain, the resilience of nature, and the strength of human connection and spirit. Her meta-goal was clear and unwavering: to protect and honor life on Earth. The specific pathways changed — research, advocacy, writing, youth programs — but the larger purpose never did.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 09, 2025

1. A Look at $7Trillion Cash on Sidelines

Spilled Coffee Blog Yes, money market balances are at all-time highs. But so is the value of everything else. The S&P 500’s total market cap has surged over the last decade. Even as cash balances look large in absolute terms, they haven’t grown nearly as fast relative to total asset values. As a percentage of total market cap, cash hasn’t really budged. In fact, as a percentage of the S&P 500 market cap, it’s near a record low.

Spilled Coffee LLC

Dan Greenhaus


2. AI is Now Largest Segment of Corporate Debt-$1.2 Trillion


3. UAE and Singaport Lead AI Adoption

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank


4. Capital Spending From Major AI Hyperscalers

The Irrelevant Investor


5. AMD Yesterday’s Rally Kicked It Above 2024 Highs

StockCharts


6. Gold vs. U.S. Dollar Chart

StockCharts


7. Dan Ives M&A Target List-CNBC

CNBC


8. IBIT $100B

Eric Balchunas


9. 30-Year Home Mortgage Rates Chart

Wolf Street


10. Interesting Poll of Pennsylvania College Kids….2% Trust Politicians, Climate/Environment Ranks Last in List of Worries, and Academics Come In Last for Information Sources

Philly.com by Julia Terruso

The Philadelphia Inquirer

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 08, 2025

1. Crypto $6B Week of Inflows

Crypto asset flows. “Digital asset investment products attracted [a record] US$5.95bn last week … Bitcoin saw a record US$3.55bn in inflows, Ethereum US$1.48bn, while Solana (US$706.5m) and XRP (US$219.4m) also set notable records.”

James Butterfill – CoinShares


2. History of 30% Six-Month Gains

Below are the twelve days since 1953 where the S&P gained more than 30% in the prior six months (for the first time in at least a year). In terms of forward market performance following these days, the S&P has definitely shown some weakness in the very near term, but going out three months to one year, returns are slightly better than normal.

Bespoke Investment Group


3. Fear and Greed Index

CNN


4. Nasdaq Has Become the Market of Choice for Dubious Penny-Stock IPOs

Jonathan Weil – WSJ


5. European Large Cap Stocks 25-Year Breakout

@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)


6. Tech 2025 vs. 1999

Mike Xaccardi


7. China Youth Unemployment Chart New Highs

Semafor


8. Nationally-There are 35% More Home Sellers Than Buyers

@CharlieBilello


9. Driverless Taxi Usage Update in California

Derek Thompson – Substack


10. The Daily Stoic -Everything we need to do draws on the same ability

Every problem we face, every decision we make, every risk we take, every belief we choose to accept or question—it all requires the skill of discernment. Life, business, ethics, success, it comes down to being able to see what’s what in a given situation.

…what to do

…when to do it

…and how to do it.

And no skill was more cultivated by the Stoics than this. Epictetus talked of money changers who could tell, just by banging a coin on the table, whether it was counterfeit or not. This, he said, was what a philosopher had to be able to do—to know a good impression from a bad one, a good response from a bad one, a virtue from a vice. This is what Seneca was doing in his evening reviews. It was what Marcus Aurelius was trained in by Rusticus and Fronto and Antoninus.

To be able to see what’s in front of you with clarity. To know what’s important and what isn’t, how things work. That’s what wisdom is. It’s not an encyclopedic knowledge of facts and figures but something both profound and applied—for it was not Gandhi’s sharp legal mind that made him the mahatma.

No one is born with this critical and all too rare ability. It is not something, Seneca reminds us, that can be delegated to someone else. There is no technology that can do it for you. There is no app. No teacher who can simply download everything into your brain. No guru who can lead you to enlightenment or shaman who can give it to you in a dose.

No, I say (it’s Ryan here), wisdom takes work (that’s the title of the new book, by the way, and you can preorder signed, numbered first-editions here!). Lots of work. Lots of reading. Lots of teachers. Lots of experience. Lots of reflecting. It took lots of work in the ancient world and it takes lots of work today. But where would we be without it? Who would we be without it?

The reason we need discernment is that life is constantly putting us in difficult situations, asking us difficult questions, putting us in ethical dilemmas. Especially in a world of social media and algorithms—where we are bombarded with information, with noise, with temptations, with endless distractions. How can we navigate this? How can we make sense of it?

Without wisdom, we cannot. We will be carried away. We will be misled. We will do the wrong thing.

https://dailystoic.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 07, 2025

1. Large Cap vs. Small Cap History of Wide Performance Spreads

Jeff Weniger


2. AMD Massive Move Short-Term Overbought

Bespoke Investment Group-With today’s gain, shares of AMD will also be trading at “extremely extreme” overbought levels. Over the last 45 years, there have only been a handful of other days when the stock traded four or more standard deviations above its 50-DMA, and if the stock holds onto these gains throughout the trading session, today would be another one.

Bespoke


3. Clean Energy Not Dead Yet….PBW ETF +30% One Month

Google Finance


4. American Energy Production Straight Up from 2010

chartr


5. Inflation  60% Items in CPI Basket Growing Faster than 3%-Torsten Slok Apollo

Apollo Academy


6. CMBS Office Delinquency Rates Pass 2008

Barchart


7. Bitcoin IBIT Clear Break-Out of Previously Mentioned Sideways Pattern

StockCharts


8. Small Percentage of Social Media Creators Receive All the Eye Balls-Prof G

Prof G Blog The bigger issue isn’t whether the AI-generated art is “good” or “bad.” It’s that most consumers don’t actually want to create it in the first place. Media consumption has long followed the “1% rule”: Only a small fraction of people create content, while the vast majority consume it.

  • 4% of YouTube videos account for 94% of views on the platform.
  • 5% of videos on TikTok generate 89% of the views.
  • On Instagram, 3% of videos earned 84% of all views.
  • The top 25 podcasts reach nearly half of U.S. weekly listeners.

https://www.profgmarkets.com/subscribe


9. Countries with the Most Airports—Brazil #2

Voronoi


10. Great Majority of Wealthy Parents Giving to Adult Children

Barrons The great majority of wealthy parents are giving their adult children financial support, according to a new survey by Ameriprise. Three-quarters of the survey’s 554 respondents are footing the bill for their adult children’s big-ticket items, like down payments on homes or tuition for graduate degrees. Nearly two-thirds are also covering ongoing costs like phone bills.

Barron’s