Sorry…Missed last couple days due to travel.
1.Advisors Betting on Bank Loans for Rate Rise.
Bank Loan ETF…Fixed Income Allocators Rushing to Plays on Rising Rates.
Topley’s Top Ten – May 9, 2017
1.The Dividend Bull Market Has Pushed Valuations to Record Levels.
Larry Swedroe Weighs In…
The table below shows three value metrics—price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-book value (P/B) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF)—for two of the market’s most popular dividend strategies: the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), with more than $14 billion in assets under management (AUM), and the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG), with more than $22 billion in AUM. Data is as of July 13, 2016. VIG buys the stocks of companies with rapid growth in their dividends.
The table also shows the two large-cap value ETFs with the most AUM, the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) and the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV). Finally, I’ll compare the value metrics of these funds with that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). As you review the data, remember that the lower the price metric, the higher the expected return. Data is from Morningstar.
The above data makes clear that the popularity of the two dividend strategies (SDY and VIG) has led to a rise in the prices of these stocks and reduced their expected returns. No matter which value metric we look at, the expected returns for both SDY and VIG are now well below the expected returns of the two large value strategies, and also below that of the S&P 500 ETF. It’s an example of the curse of popularity, and what happens when a trade gets “crowded.” Forewarned is forearmed.
Larry Swedroe on Dividends
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-irrelevance-dividends?nopaging=1
Dividend Stocks Have Doubled Since Pullback in Mid-2015
www.stockcharts.com
Topley’s Top Ten – May 8, 2017
1.Home Improvement Retailers HD and LOW Thriving in Death by Amazon World.
LOW +20% and HD +16% YTD vs. RTH Retail ETF +8%
www.yahoofinance.com
Topley’s Top Ten – Short Version May 3, 2017
1.TSLA is Turning into Ice Juice for the Biggest Shorts on Wall Street. TSLA +49% YTD.
Traders short selling Tesla’s (TSLA.O) soaring stock have lost $3.7 billion this year, eclipsing the combined losses of traders shorting Apple (AAPL.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O) and Netflix (NFLX.O)
TSLA +49% vs. S&P +7%
www.yahoofinance.com
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks-idUSKBN17Y29O
Topley’s Top Ten – May 2, 2017
1.As Consumer Discretionary Stocks Continue Upwards…Credit Card Companies Sell Off??? Loan Loss Provisions Rise??
Synchrony, Capital One, and Discover – a gauge of how well over-indebted consumers are managing to hang on – have together increased their Q1 provisions for bad loans by 36% year-over-year.
Capital One 15% Off Highs.
Discover 15% Off Highs….Breaks 200day on Heavy Volume.
Wolf Street Read on Bad Debt at BI
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-consumer-debt-is-piling-up-2017-5