1. First Newsletter I Ever Read Starting in 1998…Art Cahsin RIP
2. Art Knew Communism Sucks…U.S. Productivity Separates From the Pack
A Wealth of Common Sense Blog—Joey Politano breaks down the productivity boom in the U.S. and how it compares to the rest of the developed world: He explains:Productivity growth is nothing short of the bedrock of progress–in the long run, creating more with the same amount of labor is the only way to durably increase wages, consumption, and society’s overall prosperity. That makes it such a historic achievement that American economic output per hour worked has risen 8.9% over the last five years–faster than the five years prior or any point in the 2010s–in spite of the COVID-19 pandemic.
3. U.S. Oil Production Per Day 47% Higher than Saudi Arabia in October
The Wall Street Journal reported that US officials anticipate the US will produce an average of 13.2 million barrels of oil per day this year, which was 47% higher than Saudi Arabia’s average in October.
Marketwatch-Altimeter Capital founder Brad Gerstner pounded the table for software stocks back in June, arguing the sector was trading 15% below its 10-year average. The call was prescient: the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF +3.89% has jumped 42% from its August lows. He shared this chart showing software multiples are still below their average and trading at a discount to pre-COVID multiples.
5. Small Caps are Only Group Trading Below 10-Year Average
Equities: Only small caps are trading at multiples below their 10-year average.
Source: The Daily Shot
6. Ethereum Close to Break-Out
ETHE no full break-out yet.
7. Morgan Stanley Projection on Weight Loss Drugs
8. Internet Retail Spike Post Covid
Jack Ablin Cresset Capital
9. xAI Raised $10B One-Year
10. Elites vs. elitism -Seth Godin
Tom Brady is an elite athlete. Few have even approached the stats he had playing football. And Catherine Walker, NSTA Science Teacher of the Year, is an elite, because her pedagogy and understanding give her the ability to create better outcomes for her students. There’s a hospital for special surgery, but all surgery is special if it’s surgery on someone you care about, so we seek out an elite doctor because outcomes matter.
Our culture prizes performance, we spend a lot of time ranking and measuring output. Fans of a team are rooting for their side to win, because identity is easily hooked into performance.
But this is not at all related to elitism. Elitism is a barrier, where we use a label to decide who gets to contribute and who is offered dignity. A law firm that only hires from a few law schools is elitist–they have no data to confirm that these recruits are more likely to contribute than others, they’re simply artificially limiting the pool they draw from.
Opening our filters and seeking a diversity of experience undermines elitist insecurity and creates the possibility for even better solutions and connection.
Elitism also shows up when elites who are arguably very good at something believe that this means that they’re also good at everything.
The scientific method isn’t elitist, nor is a stopwatch used to record the 100 meter dash. Seeking coherent arguments, logical approaches and a contribution that leads to better outcomes isn’t elitist, in fact, it’s precisely the opposite.
Barrons Oil companies are on a relentless quest to produce more oil at lower costs, and AI is boosting that effort. Their success has already been remarkable. Over the past decade, the U.S. pumped out 60% more oil a day with 40% fewer workers. The industry’s annual productivity gains in that stretch outpaced even those of online retailers, and are roughly seven times as large as those of the average U.S. business. By extracting more oil while reducing capital expenses and manpower, they’re lowering the costs at which they can drill profitably. In the Permian, the “break-even” price for oil producers has fallen to $40 a barrel from over $90 in 2012, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. AI should take that number even lower, boosting oil company margins and cash flow.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised President-elect Donald Trump that Canada would toughen controls over the long undefended joint border, a senior Canadian official said on Sunday. Trudeau flew to Florida on Friday to have dinner with Trump, who has promised to slap tariffs on Canadian imports unless Ottawa prevents migrants and drugs from crossing the frontier. Canada sends 75% of all goods and services exports to the United States and tariffs would badly hurt the economy.
8. The Ethereum-Bitcoin Ratio
Yahoo Finance Bram Berkowitz, The Motley Fool Given their history and the fact that cryptocurrencies can be hard to value because they have no intrinsic value, many investors have looked for trends between the prices of Ethereum and Bitcoin. After all, groups of stocks are often compared to one another to determine relative valuation. A simple way to track Bitcoin and Ethereum is by looking at the relationship between Ethereum’s and Bitcoin’s prices by dividing the price of Ethereum by the price of Bitcoin. Seeing where this ratio has trended over time can offer clues as to which looks undervalued or overvalued relative to the other.
Data source: TradingView. Chart by author. As you can see in the chart, the Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio recently fell toward 0.035, the lowest level seen since April 2021. The average ratio dating back to 2020 is 0.0538. Ethereum has performed well since Election Day, up roughly 38% compared to Bitcoin’s 44%. However, Bitcoin has widely outperformed this year.
10. AI Predicts Neuroscience Study Results Better Than Experts
Psychology Today LLMs beat human neuroscience experts in predicting study outcomes.
The results were clear—each LLM (Large Language Model) beat human neuroscience experts by a wide margin. The LLMs average accuracy of 81.4 percent far exceeded the 63.4 percent average of human experts.
Next, the scientists created a new LLM called BrainGPT by fine-tuning an existing version of Mistral and training data from twenty years of neuroscience publications from a hundred journals published during 2002-2022. BrainGPT had an 86 percent accuracy in predicting neuroscience study results, which was a three percent gain from the general-purpose version of Mistral.
“LLMs can be part of larger systems that assist researchers in determining the best experiment to conduct next,” the researchers wrote.
The ability to predict results of neuroscience research in advance can help guide neuroscientists to optimize limited resources such as time and money, enable timely adjustments based on probable outcomes, and augment our understanding of the brain and central nervous system that may lead to better treatments and health interventions.
This proof of concept is not limited to neuroscience. According to the scientists, none of their methods used was specific just to neuroscience and can be applied more broadly to other knowledge-intensive domains in the future.
“LLM’s impressive forward-looking capabilities suggest a future in which LLMs help scientists make discoveries,” the researchers concluded.
The proof that 7% mortgage rates are causing issues in the housing sector were evident in the U.S. New Homes Sales report that came out Tuesday. New homes sales dropped by 17.3% in October. It’s the biggest drop since 2013 and 8th worst going back to 1960. Source: Mike Zaccardi
10. What the Matthew Effect Reveals About Career Success
Psychology Today Understand the psychology of success and apply it to advance your career.-Benjamin Laker
KEY POINTS
Early career wins can snowball into greater opportunities, reinforcing long-term success.
Visibility and recognition amplify success, making it crucial to showcase achievements.
Networking builds on the Matthew Effect by opening doors through trusted connections.
Have you ever noticed that some people seem to climb the career ladder effortlessly, while others struggle to get their foot on the first rung? This isn’t always about talent or hard work—although both are important. Often, it’s about the Matthew Effect: the idea that initial success can create a snowball effect, making future success easier to achieve. Psychologically, this dynamic taps into the way human perception and social behaviours amplify advantage. Success signals competence and reliability, which are qualities that others instinctively gravitate toward when making decisions about promotions, collaborations, or mentorship. This principle, named after a biblical verse about those who have being given more, explains why some professionals seem to advance faster and more smoothly than others. Understanding how this dynamic works—not just externally, but in the minds of those who influence your career—can help you harness it to your advantage.
Starting Strong: The Power of Early Wins
The first big break in your career often sets the stage for everything that follows. Think of a young graphic designer who lands a high-profile client early on. That one project, if handled well, opens the door to bigger opportunities, referrals, and a growing portfolio of impressive work. The success becomes self-reinforcing: More clients want to work with someone who’s already successful. Early recognition builds confidence—not just in you, but in the people around you. When your manager sees you excel in one area, they’re more likely to trust you with bigger responsibilities. This phenomenon feeds into workplace psychology, where competence is often perceived rather than measured. One success leads colleagues and supervisors to view you as reliable, creating a positive feedback loop. How to Apply This:
Focus on excelling in one key project or role early in your career. Success in one area can act as a launchpad, so treat every early opportunity as a chance to build your reputation.
Say yes to opportunities that might stretch your skills but offer high visibility. A bit of risk in the beginning can pay off in long-term career growth.
Building Momentum: The Importance of Visibility
Visibility is crucial to the Matthew Effect. If people don’t know about your achievements, it’s hard for success to compound. Think of an employee who consistently delivers outstanding work but doesn’t share their accomplishments. They may be overshadowed by a colleague who’s just as competent but better at self-promotion. Consider the example of a mid-level marketing manager. By regularly presenting their team’s results at company meetings, they ensure leadershipassociates their name with success. This visibility can lead to opportunities like promotions, speaking engagements, or even being headhunted by other companies. Perception matters in the workplace, and being seen as a high performer often leads to more opportunities than quietly excelling behind the scenes. How to Apply This:
Learn to share your successes without coming across as boastful. Frame your achievements as team efforts or solutions to challenges, which makes self-promotion more palatable.
Use tools like LinkedIn to showcase your work and build a personal brand. A well-maintained profile can open doors to collaborations, new roles, or mentorship opportunities.
Leveraging Networks: Success Through Connections
Another key driver of the Matthew Effect is the power of networks. People with strong professional networks are often exposed to more opportunities than those with limited connections. A tech entrepreneur, for example, might get their first big break by pitching to a mentor who introduces them to an investor. Once they have one investor, others follow, because the initial endorsement signals credibility. Psychologically, people tend to associate success with competence. When you’re recommended by someone respected in your field, that recommendation carries weight. This is why networking isn’t just about meeting people—it’s about creating meaningful relationships that lead to trust and mutual benefit. How to Apply This:
Prioritise networking early in your career. Attend industry events, join professional organisations, and engage with colleagues outside of your immediate team.
Stay in touch with your network by offering value—sharing resources, celebrating their successes, or introducing them to others. A strong network should feel reciprocal, not transactional.
Compounding Skills: How Small Improvements Create Big Gains
The Matthew Effect doesn’t just rely on external factors like visibility and networking; it also plays out internally through skill development. Consider an entry-level journalist who invests time in improving their writing, researching, and interviewing techniques. Over time, these incremental gains lead to mastery, making them a standout in their field. As their reputation grows, they’re entrusted with more significant assignments, which further improve their skills. This compounding effect is a psychological motivator: When you see tangible results from your effort, you’re more likely to continue investing in your development. Success breeds confidence, and confidence inspires further effort, creating an upward spiral. How to Apply This:
Focus on developing one high-impact skill at a time. Mastery in one area often opens doors to opportunities that allow you to develop others.
Seek feedback regularly. Knowing where you’re excelling and where you can improve will help you grow faster and more strategically.
Turning the Matthew Effect Into Your Career Ally
The Matthew Effect can seem unfair at first glance—after all, it rewards those who are already ahead. But recognising how it works gives you the tools to use it to your advantage. By seeking early wins, making your achievements visible, building strong networks, and investing in your skills, you can create the conditions for compounding success. While initial breaks are helpful, the real power of the Matthew Effect lies in your ability to capitalise on opportunities and build momentum. For those starting from a disadvantaged position, the key is persistence and strategic focus. Every small win counts and can snowball into something much larger over time. Success may not come overnight, but understanding and leveraging the psychology of success can put you on a steady path toward it.
10. Russia Keeps Duping Foreign Fighters into Ukraine
Russia reportedly recruits Yemeni fighters for war in Ukraine Mathias HammerThe News-Semafor
Russia has recruited hundreds of Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine, the Financial Times reported, as the Kremlin increasingly looks to foreign troops to limit the impact of the war on the domestic population.
The men were seemingly recruited by a group linked to the Iran-backed Houthis, which promised them lucrative jobs and Russian citizenship, but they were instead sent to fight in Ukraine, some of the men told the FT.
Both Russia and Ukraine have struggled to recruit enough troops to replace their battlefield casualties; to avoid a costly and unpopular mobilization effort at home, the Kremlin has instead used more foreign fighters, including those from Nepal and India, as well as an estimated 12,000 North Korean soldiers.
The US special envoy for Yemen said Russia is discussing weapons transfers with the Houthis that could allow the group to more accurately target ships in the Red Sea. Since Israel’s war in Gaza began last year, the Houthis have attacked at least 90 merchant ships in an apparent show of solidarity with Hamas, another Tehran-backed group.
1. Number of International Markets Hitting Lows Reached Highest Level of Year
U.S. Is Still No. 1. HMR Insights. Hi Mount Research. himountresearch.substack.com Nov. 17: The number of markets hitting new lows reached its highest level of the year. The late-September spike (when half the world was making new highs) seems like a distant memory at this point. As it stands now, less than a fifth of markets are above their 50-day average and less than half are still above their 200-day average. Global weakness last week helped confirm one of the most durable trends over the past decade as the U.S. hit a new high versus the rest of the world (again). Willie Delwiche. Barrons
Vanguard International ETF on 200-Day
2. China -22% from Stimulus Rally High
Bespoke Investment Group
Chinese Stocks in Free Fall-In the US, equities have staged a solid rally this month with most of the move occurring after the election. Elsewhere in the world, equities haven’t exactly shared in the gains. Chinese stocks, using the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) as a proxy, surged throughout September and into early October as stimulus measures were announced. After a massive 42.7% gain from the end of August through the closing high on October 7th, MCHI reversed lower and was down 14.5% by Election Day. Headed into the election, MCHI actually stabilized somewhat, but post election it has taken another leg lower as it is now down 9% since then and 22.2% since the October high. As shown below, the ETF is also now in no-man’s-land trading smack in the middle of its 200 and 50-DMAs with gaps to fill from the September post-stimulus run up.
Teas made from the tea plant come in four basic varieties: black, oolong, green, and white. They differ in flavor and color depending on how the leaves of the plant are picked, rolled, crushed, and exposed to air before drying.
For example, black teas are exposed to the air for an extended period before being steamed and dried, which promotes oxidation and gives the tea its dark color and deep flavor. Oolong teas are exposed for a shorter time, creating a slightly milder color and flavor. The leaves in green tea retain their color because they’re steamed and dried soon after picking, preventing most oxidation, so green tea has a grassier, more herbal flavor. White teas are even lighter in color and flavor because they’re made from young tea buds that are steamed and dried immediately after picking.
In addition to the obvious differences in color and flavor, there are some differences in health effects. Most notably, the darker the tea, the higher the caffeine level tends to be. An 8-ounce cup of black tea, for example, usually has about 40 to 60 milligrams of caffeine, about half of what’s in a typical cup of brewed coffee and about twice as much as what’s in green tea.
While caffeine can promote alertness, too much can make you jittery and possibly pose other health risks. That’s why the Food and Drug Administration recommends consuming no more than 400 mg of it per day. If you are watching your caffeine intake, then, you may want to drink more green tea, for example, than black. Note, though, that how much caffeine ends up in a cup of tea can vary from product to product, and also depends on how long you let it steep. So monitor how you feel after drinking your tea and adjust accordingly.
There are also some subtle differences among tea types in the amounts of antioxidants—a broad class of substances that offer a multitude of health benefits—they contain. But overall, they are all excellent sources of those beneficial compounds, says Michelle Francl, PhD, professor of chemistry at Bryn Mawr College in Pa., who’s also the author of the book “Steeped: The Chemistry of Tea” (Royal Society of Chemistry, 2024). “Even though we tend to think of green tea as kind of healthier than black tea, the [antioxidant] profiles are practically all the same,” she says.
Here’s a quick rundown of tea’s likely health benefits and the compounds thought to contribute to them.
Heart Disease
Polyphenol antioxidants in tea seem to relax blood vessels, which could prevent them from constricting. And catechins, a type of polyphenol, may reduce levels of LDL (bad) cholesterol and keep levels of HDL (good) cholesterol high. That could help prevent plaque from building up in your arteries. In combination, these effects may explain why research generally suggests that tea reduces the risk of heart attack and possibly other forms of heart disease.
Diabetes
Catchins as well as theaflavins, which are another type of antioxidants found in tea, appear to affect how the body regulates insulin and blood sugar. And a study in the Journal of General Internal Medicine found that people who drank four or more cups of tea per day had a 20 percent lower risk of type 2 diabetes than those who drank less.
Weight Loss
Tea, especially green tea, has a reputation as a weight loss aid. And the combination of caffeine and catechins may boost your metabolism, some research suggests, which could translate into weight loss. However, that effect appears modest at best. Note that there’s little evidence that green tea supplements marketed for weight loss help in that effort, and some research has raised safety concerns about them, so it’s probably wise to skip them.
Bone Health
Tea’s effect on your skeleton is complicated because some research has found that caffeine may be bad for the bones. But a number of studies over the years suggest that drinking tea doesn’t reduce bone density, and may actually strengthen bones. For example, a 2022 study of 3,530 postmenopausal women found that those who drank one to three cups of green tea daily had lower rates of osteopenia (weakened bones) and osteoporosis (decreased bone mass) compared with people who consumed less than one cup daily.
Cancer
The catechins in tea, perhaps especially green tea, may suppress the growth or spread of certain kinds of cancer cells, according to a 2022 study in Frontiers in Nutrition. The study linked tea consumption to a possible reduced risk of gynecological, digestive, liver, lung, and gallbladder cancers.
Cognitive Decline
Regularly drinking tea may combat some of the normal declines in cognitive function that come with age, according to several studies, including a 2022 analysis in the journal Frontiers of Aging Neuroscience that looked at 36 previously published articles. One possible explanation for that apparent benefit is that the antioxidants in the beverage shield the brain from damage.
What About Herbal Teas?
Peppermint, chamomile, eucalyptus, echinacea, ginger, slippery elm—those are just a few of the hundreds of herbal teas you can buy, alone or in combination. They often have purported health benefits, from helping to soothe a sore throat, improving sleep, and relieving menstrual pain to easing stress, boosting immunity, and aiding digestion. But in part because there are so many of them, with so many different potential health claims, it can be hard to document their benefits with hard, scientific research.
That said, herbal teas often contain some of the same antioxidants and other healthful compounds found in true teas. Many of them also have long histories of use as traditional medicines from around the world, with few known risks when consumed in typical formulations. And, of course, they can be no-calorie ways to keep yourself hydrated—and many people find relief, or just comfort, from a soothing cup of hot herbal tea.
