Topley’s Top 10 – October 04, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Credit Suisse CDS Hits 2008 Levels.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/

2. Is the Dollar Finally Hitting a Pause in Rally?

www.stockcharts.com

3. MOVE Bond Volatility Index Hit Previous Highs

Bond VIX volatility index hit $155….Historically the top in rising rates.

Barrons By Lisa Beilfuss–The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate, or MOVE, index, shows how violent the action has been in the U.S. Treasury market. Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, notes that the index, which captures bond-market volatility much like the Cboe Volatility IndexVIX –0.69% , or VIX, does with the stock market, hit about 159 during the past week. That is the highest level since 2009, with a lone exception in March 2020, early in the pandemic. Bianco says that every time the MOVE index has gotten above 155, the Fed has panicked and eased policy.

For investors conditioned to expect the Fed to backstop markets, this would suggest that at least a pivot away from aggressive tightening is in sight—and a return to rate cuts and QE might not be far behind that.Don’t bet on it just yet. Not only is the current turbulence the consequence of the Fed waiting too long to address inflation; it is also the result of some policy makers and investors missing the point that the economy has fundamentally changed since the pandemic, Bianco says.  https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-put-stock-market-economy-51664579357?mod=Searchresults

https://markets.ft.com/data/indices/tearsheet/summary?s=MOVE:PSE

4. 2000 and 2008 Last Time S&P was Down 3 Quarters in a Row

Michael Batnick For just the third time in a long time, the stock market has declined for three consecutive quarters.

Making Lemonade in the Stock Market – The Irrelevant Investor

5. Inflation Slowdown?…COMT Commodity ETF…Bearish Chart Action

COMT 50day thru 200day to downside….trading below 200 day most of September

6. Inflation Slowdown? Baltic Dry Shipping Index -70% from Highs

7. U.K. Stock Market ETF…Just Above Covid Lows…Trading at 8.5x earnings.

8. VNQ-Vanguard Real Estate Trades Back to Covid Levels.

A lot of charts below 200 week moving average and back to covid levels

www.stockcharts.com

9. Electric vehicle startups face an uphill climb

Joann Muller, author of Axios What’s Next

UPS-backed electric vehicle startup Arrival built its first delivery van last week — a significant milestone, considering the challenges it and other upstart EV makers like it are facing.

Why it matters: Arrival and other fledgling commercial EV companies are struggling to launch production as funding dwindles and bigger rivals like GM and Ford start to crank out electric trucks and vans of their own.

  • Some newbies have already collapsed, like Electric Last Mile Solutions, which went bankrupt in June.
  • For the rest, the goal is to at least show progress to investors — which is why Arrival made such a big deal about producing a single van on what happened to be the last day of the third quarter.

Driving the news: Arrival said Friday it had missed its third-quarter target to start serial production, but celebrated the fact that it produced its first “production verification vehicle” — in other words, an early prototype.

  • “Although we have not yet achieved serial production, we are focused on making it happen,” founder and CEO Denis Sverdlov said in a statement.
  • Scaling is more difficult than he imagined, Sverdlov told Reuters. “We are going through our own production hell,” he said, echoing Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s comments during the troubled launch of the Model 3.

The big picture: Other struggling EV manufacturers face similar challenges as financing options tighten.

  • Lordstown Motors last week said it began production of the Endurance, an electric pickup truck for businesses. So far, it has built a grand total of two and aims to build 50 by year-end. It too is looking to raise more cash.
  • Faraday Future said it will start production of its long-delayed FF 91 sports car by the end of 2022 with $100 million in new financing after resolving an investor dispute.
  • Canoo, which is also struggling to start production, has decided to outsource manufacturing to a third party.
  • Rivian is leaning on a lucrative Amazon contract while it boosts consumer production — but it too recently laid off 6% of its workforce.

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/03/electric-vehicle-startups-arrival

10. How to Harvest Your Hidden Intelligence

Three ways to enhance experiential intelligence. Lindsey Godwin Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • Our popular notions of IQ and EQ are no longer sufficient to predict success in today’s perpetually disrupted world.
  • Experiential intelligence offers a complement to IQ and EQ by inviting us to leverage the wisdom we accumulate through our experiences.
  • There are specific strategies we can employ to enhance our experiential intelligence and gain new wisdom to set us up for success in the future.

As autumn returns with its promise of pumpkin spice lattes, corn mazes, and fall festivals, my mind turns to the notion of harvesting. Defined as “collecting a resource in order to use it in the future effectively,” there are many things we harvest this season to sustain us through the year. Reflecting on our psychological resources, there is one garden in our lives we often neglect to fully harvest during the year: our experiences. Our myriad of past experiences, however, provides each of us with a cornucopia of wisdom to be leveraged into future successes if we take the time to harvest it.

Exploring the rich harvesting that is available to us through our experiences is exactly what Dr. Soren Kaplan does in his forthcoming book, Experiential Intelligence: Harness the Power of Experience for Personal and Business Breakthroughs. Kaplan (2023) defines experiential intelligence (XQ) as “the combination of mindsets, abilities, and know-how gained from your experiences.” More specifically, the three elements are:

  • Mindsets: Attitudes and beliefs about yourself, other people, and the world.
  • Abilities: Competencies that help you integrate your knowledge, skills, and experiences so you can respond to situations in the most effective way possible.
  • Know-How: Knowledge and skills.

For more than a century since German psychologist William Stern coined the term intelligence quotient (IQ), we have explored the notion of general intelligence as a gauge of future success. Nearly 50 years ago, we added emotional intelligence (EQ) as a complementary piece to the success puzzle of life. What we have yet to fully harvest and recognize as an important element for cultivating success is the latent intelligence that comes from our lived experiences. While the notion of multiple forms of intelligence endures within our zeitgeist, we have primarily focused on IQ and EQ as the core pillars for understanding our personal and professional achievements. Yet, perhaps we have been missing an important piece of the puzzle in our neglect to explore the wisdom gained through our array of past experiences. Experiential intelligence offers a complement to IQ and EQ by providing a framework for harvesting the accumulated wisdom and talents we have grown over time through our personal and professional experiences.

In many ways, XQ offers us a new lens through which to unpack our history in a way that sets us up for success in the future. Just as many have written about ways to increase our EQ, and even possibly expand our IQ (for example, see Relational Frame Theory that suggests IQ is a reflection of learned relational skills that can be enhanced over time), so too can we enhance our XQ. Specifically, we can:

1.   Get Curious About Successes. Our XQ can be deepened through unpacking our past wins. Too often we treat our successes as accidents, or not worthy of deeper inquiry, when in fact just the opposite is true. Much had to go right in order for our successes to have occurred, and reflecting upon how we were able to exercise our unique mindsets, abilities, and know-how to create those successes is key to developing our XQ. The next time something goes right at work or home, ask yourself, “What were the mindsets, abilities, and know-how that led me to be successful and how can I leverage them further in the future?” Success can beget success if we harvest our learnings from our experiences.

2.   Reframe Failures. If we begin to see all experiences as an opportunity for expanding our XQ, we begin to recognize that even when things didn’t turn out as we hoped, there is rich learning to be gained from reflecting on our experience. Instead of kicking ourselves for not succeeding, we can instead ask ourselves, “What are the mindsets, abilities, and know-how I will need in the future to be successful?” This simple shift can increase our XQ and help turn breakdowns into breakthroughs.

3.   Cultivate New Experiences. We can also bolster our XQ through the intentional pursuit of new and diverse experiences. Seeking out and creating diverse experiences offers an opportunity to add new chapters to our life’s book. The more diverse experiential text we have to draw upon, the more opportunities we have to deepen our XQ. Ask yourself, “What new experiences might help me expand my mindsets, abilities, and know-how?”

Farrah Gray once said, “Inside every seed is the potential for an incredible harvest.” Similarly, inside every experience is the potential for an incredible harvest of learning to expand our mindsets, abilities, and know-how. XQ invites us to become perpetual harvesters of our past to create better futures.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/possibilitizing/202210/how-harvest-your-hidden-intelligence

Topley’s Top 10 – October 03, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Global Bonds and Stocks Record Drawdown

This year’s pullback outpaces steep declines seen during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, based on the drop in market value of the Bloomberg GlobalAgg Index and the MSCI All-Country World Stocks Index combined.

Perhaps this is not surprising given the tidal wave of cash that flooded into world markets during the easy years. But the pace of this year’s value destruction is still alarming: the $36 trillion shaved off markets in nine months had been amassed over roughly double that time, between mid-2020 and late-2021. 

ByJan-Patrick Barnert https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-01/raging-markets-selloff-in-five-charts-36-trillion-and-counting?sref=GGda9y2L

2. Nowhere to Hide…Defensive Utilities Drop a Fast -15%

www.stockcharts.com

3. Nowhere to Hide…Defensive Consumer Staples Drop a Fast -16%

www.stockcharts.com

4. Money Supply is Collapsing.

Zero Hedge Collapse In Money Supply Is Still A Major Risk For The Market BY TYLER DURDEN  Via SchiffGold.com, Money Supply growth was barely positive in August at $2B and sits well below the $233B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with five straight months above $200B, whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/collapse-money-supply-still-major-risk-market

Investopedia–What Happens When the Federal Reserve Limits the Money Supply?  A country’s money supply has a significant effect on a country’s macroeconomic profile, particularly in relation to interest rates, inflation, and the business cycle. In America, the Federal Reserve determines the level of monetary supply.2 When the Fed limits the money supply via contractionary or hawkish monetary policy, interest rates rise and the cost of borrowing increases. This can dampen inflationary pressures, but also risk slowing down economic growth.

5. Retail Investors Buying More Puts than Calls…Contra Indicator

Retail investors’ put options have now exceeded calls, as they did in early 2020.

Source: Vanda Research

 https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-september-30th-2022/

6. Put/Call Ratio Hitting Lows of 2018 and 2020

-Past signal of short-term rally.  JC at All-Star Charts You can see it in the Put/Call Ratio hitting levels last seen at the 2018 and 2020 market lows:

https://allstarcharts.com/the-bulls-have-left-the-building/    From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

7. A Few Slides on the American Demographic Dilemma….Growth of U.S. Working Age Population Shrinking then Negative in 2021

John Burns Real Estate

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

8. Prime-Age Working Males Ugly Chart

Demographic-Drought.pdf

9. Women Surpassed Men in College….Now Women Overtake Men in White Collar Workforce

Women now outnumber men in the U.S. college-educated labor force BY RICHARD FRY  Women have overtaken men and now account for more than half (50.7%) of the college-educated labor force in the United States, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data. The change occurred in the fourth quarter of 2019 and remains the case today, even though the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp recession and an overall decline in the size of the nation’s labor force.

Women now represent a majority of the college-educated labor force in the U.S. | Pew Research Center

10. The Most Common Symptoms of Low Dopamine

By

Elizabeth Plumptre 

Dopamine is a neurotransmitter, or chemical, that plays the important role of sending signals from the brain to the body. It is produced naturally in different key sections of the brain and is important for functions such as motor skills, cognitive abilities, and reproduction.

This neurotransmitter spikes in anticipation of something important which is about to happen, plays key roles in the body’s reward and motivation system, and also affects memory.

Dopamine performs these important functions despite making up only a small percentage—less than 1% —of the brain’s neurons.1 In the right amount, this neurotransmitter is crucial for brain function, but when this amount is lowered beyond a prescribed point, it can just as equally have an unintended consequence on the body. Dopamine deficiency has been linked to neurodegenerative conditions in the body.

To understand the effects of low dopamine, we’ll first examine the signs and causes of this condition. Then, we’ll learn about the conditions most commonly linked to dopamine deficiency for a keener understanding of its effects. Finally, we’ll share the ways you can maintain your body’s production of this important neurotransmitter.

 What Is Dopamine?

Symptoms of Low Dopamine 

With links to conditions like schizophrenia and Parkinson’s disease, dopamine deficiency can exhibit similar traits with these conditions. These traits include:

  • Chronic back pain2
  • Persistent constipation3
  • Weight fluctuations4
  • Dysphagia or difficulty swallowing5
  • Sleep disorders6
  • Fatigue7
  • Attention difficulties8
  • Reduced sex drive9
  • Hallucinations and delusions10
  • Aspiration pneumonia11
  • Low moods12

Causes of Low Dopamine 

A number of factors may be responsible for reduced dopamine in the body. These include sleep deprivation, obesity, drug abuse, saturated fat, and stress. Here’s a closer look at each.

Sleep Deprivation 

Besides your morning coffee, dopamine is one of the reasons you feel refreshed and alert most mornings. This wakefulness is promoted by dopamine receptors, in particular the D2 receptor. These receptors help to mediate the functions of dopamine in the body.

However, sleep deprivation can reduce the number of D2 receptors in important parts of the brain. Where this happens, the transmission and production of dopamine is impacted.

In fact, with a condition like Parkinson’s disease which sustains low dopamine levels, most people feel excessive daytime sleepiness.13

Obesity 

Obesity has been linked to a number of health conditions, but one less known effect is the role it plays in downregulating or reducing the amount of dopamine in the brain.

Like the results of sleep deprivation, obesity can lead to a reduction in D2 receptors in the brain.14 This becomes especially obvious when comparisons are made with the number of receptors in people who are not obese.15

Drug Abuse

During early usage, certain drugs may contribute to an increase in dopamine. Cocaine is one drug that has been known to produce euphoria and increased dopamine levels following usage.

However, long-term use of these drugs is certain to offer diminishing returns, especially where dopamine production is concerned.

Because of the sustained increase in dopamine production following drug use, the brain intervenes to reduce the number of dopamine receptors available.16

Saturated Fat 

When you have fried chicken, buttered bread, chocolate, and other foods high in saturated fats, your brain understandably lights up with dopamine at all the pleasure you’re receiving from these foods.

However, while these foods only produce short-term enjoyment. Over time, persistently observing a high-fat diet disrupts central nervous system functioning, where dopamine is produced. When it is disrupted, this can lead to a dopamine deficit.17

Stress

There are very few things stress is good for, and maintaining optimal dopamine levels isn’t one of them. When you are constantly exposed to stressors like financial difficulty, relationship troubles, workplace stress, and more, this can affect your body’s production of dopamine. Over time, this may also lead to a deficiency of the neurotransmitter in the body.

Conditions Linked With Dopamine Deficiency 

Major Depressive Disorder

Major depressive disorder is one of the most severe mental and behavioral disorders. It is characterized by prolonged depressive moods, or a lack of interest in activities that would ordinarily be appealing. This loss of interest is commonly referred to as anhedonia.

However, beyond a loss of interest, anhedonia is also related to a disruption in the mind’s reward process. The usual anticipation, motivation, and decision-making stages involved in the reward system are greatly affected. This change has been linked to dysfunctions in the dopamine system.

Decreased levels of dopamine have been known to form the basis of the symptoms associated with major depressive disorders.18

 What Is the Chemistry Behind Depression?

Schizophrenia

This disorder is linked with an abnormal interpretation of reality. Schizophrenia is a severe mental health condition that can affect a person’s ability to think, act, or express themselves.

Typically diagnosable by symptoms like hallucinations, delusions, and abnormal physical gaits, these signs may also be attributed to an imbalance of dopamine in the body.

Lower levels of dopamine have been linked to other signs such as anhedonia, an inability to complete tasks, and demotivation to engage in social interactions.19

Parkinson’s Disease

Parkinson’s is a disorder of the nervous system. It is identifiable by tremors which may begin as barely noticeable, before progressing into obvious quivers, muscle stiffness, or delayed movement. This disorder may also cause problems with balance during motion.

Parkinson’s disease is the result of a number of factors, one of which is a reduction in the production of dopamine in the brain. When there is a dopamine deficit, this can cause the distinct movement difficulties associated with this condition.20

How to Treat Low Dopamine Levels

Low dopamine levels can produce negative reactions throughout the body. To prevent and remedy this deficiency, the following methods can prove useful.

Exercise

Working up a sweat by running, swimming, dancing, or other forms of movement, can help with increasing dopamine levels in the body. Studies carried out on animals have shown that certain portions of the brain are flushed with dopamine during physical activity. It is why exercising may sometimes produce a high.21

Natural Sources 

Your body’s supply of dopamine may be supported by external sources. Natural sources such as bananas, plantain, and avocado have been found to contain high levels of dopamine. Apples, eggplant, spinach, and tomatoes have also been recognized as dopamine sources. Proteins are also notable components in the dopamine production process.22

Probiotics 

Probiotics may get more notice for promoting gut health, but this bacteria is not only an important part of the body’s microbiome, it may also be useful for the production of dopamine and other neurotransmitters.23

 Could Probiotics Be a Good Mood Food?

Music 

It’s not 100% certain how music affects the brain, but there’s a reason why certain songs give you chills, make you mellow, and very notably, have the power to invigorate you while listening.

The last potential may be due to the ability of music to stimulate dopamine production in the brain. This leaves you with feelings of pleasure and excitement when listening to music, and can help to increase dwindling dopamine levels.24

A Word From Verywell

In the right amount, dopamine can give you feelings of pleasure, excitement and motivation when carrying out activities. Things start to go south, however, when the  body runs low on this neurotransmitter. This can happen because of a genetic predisposition, obesity, stress, and other causes.

When this happens, it isn’t uncommon for you to experience persistent tiredness, constipation, poor moods, sleep disorders, and other negative reactions.

Thankfully, the body’s dopamine levels can be increased using the right diet that consists of fruits like banana, probiotics, as well as protein. You can also get your dopamine fix by listening to music and routinely engaging in exercise.

By Elizabeth Plumptre 

 https://www.verywellmind.com/common-symptoms-of-low-dopamine-5120239

Topley’s Top 10 – September 30, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Is Netflix a Value Stock?

From my friends at Kailash Research https://kailashconcepts.com/

1.Despite the -65% decline, Netflix is still larger than 93% of all other large-cap stocks
2.So, post a -60% wipeout, Netflix is still more expensive than 82% of all US large-cap stocks.
NFLX -75% Correction top to bottom

2. Correlation Nasdaq and Bitcoin .71

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

www.dorseywright.com

3. U.S. Credit Spreads Have Not Spiked Yet

@DTAPCAP Dan Tapiero

https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP

4. High Grade Bonds Suffered 3rd Biggest Weekly Outflow Ever

@lisaabramowicz1

https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1

5. Preferred Stock ETF..Long-Term Chart

PFF ETF hit $20 during Covid and single digits during 2008 crisis

www.stockcharts.com

6. History of S&P 500 During Fed Rate Hike Cycles

Dan Petersen, CMT, CAIAIndexIQ ETF Product Manager

https://www.linkedin.com/in/danpeterseniiq/

7. Small Cap Value Holding Above 200 Week Moving Average.

VBR Vanguard Small Cap Value another chart right at 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com

8. How Much Home Can You Buy for $2500 Per Month?

One Year Ago $758,000 vs. Now $476,000 @M_McDonough

Michael McDonough https://twitter.com/M_McDonough

9. For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present.

More electric cars will be sold in the country this year than in the rest of the world combined, as its domestic market accelerates ahead of the global competition.

BYD, China’s largest electric vehicle maker, displayed cars at an auto show in Wuhan, China, in July.Credit…Getty Images

By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Claire Fu

Zhang Youping, a Chinese retiree, purchased an all-electric, small sport utility vehicle from BYD — China’s largest electric vehicle maker — at an auto show for around $20,000 last month. Her family has bought three gas-powered cars in the last decade, but she recently grew concerned about gas prices and decided to go electric “to save money.” A few months earlier, her son had also bought an E.V. It was a $10,000 hatchback from Leapmotor, another Chinese manufacturer.

This year, a quarter of all new cars purchased in China will be an all-electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid. By some estimates, more than 300 Chinese companies are making E.V.s, ranging from discount offerings below $5,000 to high-end models that rival Tesla and German automakers. There are roughly four million charging units in the country, double the number from a year ago, with more coming.

While other E.V. markets are still heavily dependent on subsidies and financial incentives, China has entered a new phase: Consumers are weighing the features and prices of electric vehicles against gas-powered cars without much consideration of state support. The United States is far behind. This year, the country passed a key threshold of E.V.s accounting for 5 percent of new car sales. China passed that level in 2018.

It took China more than a decade of subsidies, long-term investments and infrastructure spending to lay the foundation for its electric vehicle market to start standing on its own. Tu Le, a managing director of the Beijing-based consultancy Sino Auto Insights, said competition and dynamism were now driving the Chinese market, not government subsidies.“We have reached a point in China where we’re competing on price. We’re competing on features. So it’s not a subsidy thing,” Mr. Le said. “The market is taking over.”

For China’s Auto Market, Electric Isn’t the Future. It’s the Present. – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

10. 5 Keys to Simplify Decision-Making

Few wish they’d spent more of their lives analyzing what to order for dinner. Jill P. Weber Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • The day-to-day that most experience can easily become a mental overload.
  • The myriad of choices and searches available leave many feeling stuck, leaving some to give up on making a call completely.
  • Some second guess their decisions or berate themselves for their choices long after decisions have been made.
  • Simplifying the decision-making process brings on clarity and peace of mind.

Do you find yourself bogged down by decisions, even simple, everyday ones? Do you find yourself consulting with others, scouring the internet, and working to turn over every possibility before making a decision? And do you find, at times, you are paralyzed by the options to such an extent that you punt the decision and end up not making one at all?

The goings-on of day-to-day life that most experience can easily become a mental overload. Even the mundane can bog us down. For me, living in the D.C. area and considering my options for tonight’s take-out is kind of an over-stimulating experience. On the surface, having options feels like freedom and progress. On a deeper level, it can feel so entirely overwhelming that making a move in any direction is impossible. And then for some others, they make their decisions but internally berate themselves by wondering if they made the right decision, or by continuing to research other paths they might have taken.

Decisions—from the serious to the routine—can make many feel they have a perpetual death grip on the steering wheel of life. Interestingly, we seem to do better with the big ones, like finding a surgeon, for example. It’s the small, everyday decisions that can really bog people down.

Consider the time you spend in your head thinking about what to do or rethinking what you should have done differently. If you take a moment to sit with how you feel when this is happening, it may become blazingly obvious to you that time spent in decision-making mode is not necessarily supporting your psyche and peace of mind. How many people on their death beds think, “Wow, I wish I would have spent more of my time researching my decisions.” There’s a way out of this rabbit hole, one that can bring you peace and presence.

Here are five steps to making decisions less painful, adapted from my recently released book, Overcoming Stressed Induced Brain Fog:

  1. There’s No Absolute “Right” Decision: We’re taught that careful thought and intellectualizing all of life’s ills will protect us from pain and suffering. Unfortunately, this is a myth. All of the thinking, second-guessing, and planning in the world will not make you immune from life’s vagaries. When you’re obsessing about your next decision, gently remind yourself that whichever way you go will likely not impact your life in an enduring sense. Spending time finding peace, learning what brings you meaning, and connecting with others, however, will impact your long-term well-being.
  2. Cut Yourself Off: The vastness of the internet is anxiety-producing for many. It can feel that if you search enough, you’ll come to the end of the rainbow and all will be right in the world. Of course, your experience has likely already taught you that the internet has no end. The best way to stop this endless search for the ‘right’ decision is to literally set a timer on your watch when you’re doing “research.” Also, add talking to others into your decision process. Directly communicating with real-life people, in person, helps us find what’s right for us versus finding perfect.
  3. Good Enough: As much as you want things to be amazing and perfect, consider the stress this brings. Even when you’re able to achieve some version of perfection then you have to spend time and energy maintaining it. There is much to be said for things simply being…good enough. Sure, maybe everything is not glamorous and exactly right, but you will have a life where you haven’t squandered all of your time and resources trying to get it exactly right. Good enough leaves space for internal peace, connection, and meaning.
  4. Make A Decision: More than making a wrong or bad decision, not making a decision at all brings on brain fog. You aren’t able to move forward in any direction and your brain is full of random contingency analyses that never get resolved. Just do it. Call an end to the back-and-forth and make a decision. You will feel the peace it brings.
  5. Don’t Look Back: Once you’ve decided, embrace your decision. Shut down all of those mental and literal tabs in your mind and on your browser. You can cope if you find, along the way, the decision you made doesn’t bring you peace, or you realize it really is causing more harm than good. Regroup and change course without self-flagellating.

Topley’s Top 10 – September 29, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. S&P Approaching Giving Back 2 Years of Gains.

www.yahoofinance.com

2. Zero Coupon Bond Down Close to -50%

3. Another Bond Chart….Muni ETF

50 week going thru 200 week to downside….Munis break to new lows.

www.stockcharts.com

4. Oil Prices Officially Below Ukraine Invasion Numbers.

LPL Research

https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/chart-12.png?ssl=1

5. China Currency Drawdown Thru Covid Lows

https://dailyshotbrief.com/

6. Chinese Internet Stocks Not Breaking New Lows Yet.

KWEB forming base since March….-75% from Highs

7. Stock/Bond Drawdown $57.8 Trillion

@DTAPCAP DTAP Capital

https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP

8. Consumer Related Commodity Pullback

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla

9. Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow…Rents Huge for Inflation Numbers

Higher Rents will continue to impact measures of inflation in 2022CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride

Another monthly update on rents. First, from ApartmentList.com: Apartment List National Rent Report

Welcome to the October 2022 Apartment List National Rent Report. Our national index fell by 0.2 percent over the course of September, marking the first time this year that the national median rent has declined month-over-month. The timing of this slight dip in rents is consistent with a seasonal trend that was typical in pre-pandemic years. Assuming that trend continues, it is likely that rents will continue falling in the coming months as we enter the winter slow season for the rental market. … Year-over-year growth is continuing to decelerate, and now stands at 7.5 percent, down from a peak of nearly 18 percent at the beginning of the year.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/pace-of-rent-increases-continues-601  Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

10. Korn Ferry’s CEO says the best résumé he’s ever seen nailed these 6 key elements

Gary Burnison, the CEO of Korn Ferry. Anne Cusack/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

  • Gary Burnison is the CEO of the management-consultancy firm Korn Ferry.
  • He’s spent the past 20 years recruiting candidates for the LA-based company.
  • He told CNBC the six keys to one of the best résumés he’s seen in his time at the firm.

Get a daily selection of our top stories based on your reading preferences.

A Roblox creator earns up to $90,000 a month selling virtual items like $0.94 stud earrings and $1.24 fur hood…

This is an edited, translated version of an article that originally appeared on September 16, 2022.

Gary Burnison is the CEO of the management-consultancy firm Korn Ferry. He’s been interviewing and hiring candidates for the company for 20 years.

Writing for CNBC Make It, he said that despite being tough to impress when it comes to résumés, one, in particular, has stuck in his mind to this day.

Burnison shared the six key things that made this résumé stand out as one of the best he’d ever read.

1. A strong narrative

The résumé offered a clearly defined, chronological path through the candidate’s career history, Burnison told CNBC.

Burnison said a good résumé should start with the most recent professional experience and work backward from there. The résumé should show progression in terms of the candidate’s responsibilities and not have any career gaps, he added.

2. Well-presented 

Burnison said that the résumé was two pages long and well-organized.

“Line spacing was just right, company names in bold, titles italicized, and job details arranged in bullet points,” he said.

He added that he likes candidates to use a simple, clear font.

3. No clichés

Burnison also said that the best résumés avoid clichés and use action verbs instead.

He said including vague terms like “excellent communicator,” “team player,” “creative,” or “hard-working” could quickly put off recruiters.

As an example, Burnison said: “Instead of ‘excellent communicator,’ say ‘presented at face-to-face client meetings and spoke at college recruiting events.”‘

4. It highlighted achievements

Another integral reason this résumé stood out was that it provided examples of the candidate’s achievements, as well as the duties they had to carry out in their previous roles, Burnison said.

Burnison said that hiring managers want to see evidence that candidates have delivered “quantifiable” results and why they’re better than the average applicant.

He said one way to do that is by highlighting your responsibilities through your best achievements.

Burnison shared an example of what this could look like for a candidate: “Instead of ‘led marketing and sales team,’ say ‘supervised marketing and sales team and achieved 15% annual growth vs. 0.5% budget.”‘

5. It was open and honest

The candidate provided a link to a portfolio of their work and their LinkedIn page. Burnision said this left a positive impression as he could easily double-check any claims made in the résumé, which added to the candidate’s credibility.

Burnison said that honesty is crucial to success, as a reference check will end your chances if you’ve lied about anything.

6. It came with a referral

The candidate included a referral from a colleague from Burnison’s firm. The CEO shared that this is “the most effective way to get an employer’s attention.”

While this isn’t possible for everyone, even those who don’t have a contact at the company should still try and find a way of making an informal introduction to a current employee.

This can just be something simple like meeting an employee for coffee, he continued, adding that once you’ve formed a relationship with someone within the firm, you can start inquiring about job opportunities.

Read the original article on Business Insider Deutschland. Copyright 2022.

https://www.businessinsider.com/6-keys-best-resume-management-consultancy-recruiter-korn-ferry-2022-9

Topley’s Top 10 – September 28, 2022

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. 2022 Historical Event…Bonds Down More Than Stocks.

Michael Gayed Below are the top 20 largest peak to trough drawdowns for the S&P 500 going back to 1961. Never, IN HISTORY, in an EXTREME drawdown for stocks, have Treasuries, THE risk-off asset, GONE DOWN MORE THAN STOCKS.

(23) Michael A. Gayed, CFA on Twitter: “Below are the top 20 largest peak to trough drawdowns for the S&P 500 going back to 1961. Never, IN HISTORY, in an EXTREME drawdown for stocks, have Treasuries, THE risk-off asset, GONE DOWN MORE THAN STOCKS. WAKE. THE. FUCK. UP. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/MKlas14qv4” / Twitter2.

2. 30 Year Treasury -30% from Highs

30 year treasury ETF …oversold short-term

First time American investors experiencing a “short-term safe bond fund” chart that looks like BSV

www.stockcharts.com

3. Hockey Stick Spike in Put Option Hedging

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading–You can practically smell the fear. Single stock put premium has been surging to record levels! (FT via the Twits)

4. U.S. is Facing Shortest Lead Time Ever Between Inverted Yield Curve and Recession

@Charlie Bilello Back then, the expansion peaked in March 2001. Today, many believe we are already in a recession.

If that’s the case, it would be the shortest lead time we’ve seen from the inverted yield curve signal.

5. Amazon Market Cap in S&P Almost Cut in Half

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/

6. FANG Stock ETF Closes Below 200 Week Moving Average.

7. S&P Retail Index Closes Below 200 Week Moving Average

8. China vs. India…Straight Down

This chart shows China ETF vs. India ETF….China straight pattern down vs. India starting in 2021

www.stockcharts.com

9. New fully self-driving Volkswagen allows you to work, eat and SLEEP

Cody Carlson VOLKSWAGEN has shown us the future of transport with its fully self-driving GEN.TRAVEL vehicle.

The all-electric GEN.TRAVEL car operates at the highest self-driving level and acts as an alternative to short-haul flights.

Rearview image showcasing Volkswagen’s GEN.TRAVEL vehicleCredit: Volkswagen AG

The Society of Automotive Engineers [SAE] formed a ranking system for self-driving car automation in 2014.

These autonomous (or self-driving) rankings are leveled from 0 to 5, with level 5 being the highest.

Volkswagen’s GEN.TRAVEL vehicle has level 5 autonomy, meaning it can travel through bad weather and isn’t limited to specific geographical locations, according to the manufacturer.

GEN.TRAVEL’s interior is customizable for each journey, offering configurations for working, eating, and sleeping.

The fully self-driving vehicle’s work setup includes a conference layout with four seats and a large center table where passengers can work and eat.

Illuminating GEN.TRAVEL’S work environment is dynamic lighting that helps passengers avoid motion sickness.

GEN.TRAVEL riders looking to catch some rest can convert the four chairs into two flat-lying beds.

The dynamic lighting within this Volkswagen also induces passenger melatonin release to promote better rest.

https://www.the-sun.com/motors/6303145/fully-self-driving-volkswagen-sleep/

10. The Science of Weekend Recovery

Finding your own best way to recover from the work week—and go back stronger. Jeffrey Davis M.A.

KEY POINTS

  • Many Americans are spending weekends and holidays working, leading to negative work-related stress.
  • Unwinding on the weekend is important, but how we choose to unwind is equally important.
  • The right form of recovery for you depends on the nature of your work.

Does it feel like it’s more difficult to disengage from work these days? If so, you’re not alone. According to the latest American Time Use Survey, one in five American workers spends an average of 5.94 hours working on weekends and holidays.

Working on the weekends is the message society tells us about how to get ahead. A Google search of what entrepreneurs do on weekends returns cheerful articles filled with advice to unwind and relax—yet Quora and Reddit forums asking the same question reveal what entrepreneurs actually do: work on their businesses.

Is it any wonder that the American Psychological Association’s 2021 Work and Well-being Survey found three in five workers are experiencing negative work-related stress?

It’s time to reclaim our weekends.

Recent Research on Weekend Recovery

Earlier this year I wrote about setting goals for a life worth living outside of work and how, if we want to avoid burnout and improve our resilience, we need to rethink how we refresh ourselves while off the clock.

Since writing that piece, I’ve become curious about a pair of studies that go beyond the fact that relaxation is necessary and ask the question of which type of activity can help us feel the most rejuvenated.

In a 2017 study from San Francisco University, Kevin J. Eschleman and his colleagues found that workers in less-creative jobs (such as cashiers, security guards, and technicians) were more likely to benefit from creative activities outside of work. Workers in creative jobs such as designers and architects, on the other hand, were more refreshed by noncreative pursuits.

A more recent study from the Université Grenoble Alpes in France extended the question to look at not only the activities participants did but also the amount of effort those activities took and the way they made the participant feel (which they call “experiences”; e.g., relaxation, mastery, control).

They found that participants who engaged in activities related to their work experienced lower recovery over the weekend, while those who engaged in social, physical, and creative experiences recovered better. Digging even deeper, they discovered that two specific experiences—psychological detachment from work and relaxation—were more likely to assist with recovery.

I want to highlight this for the one in five of us who are working 5.94 hours on weekends and holidays: the more distinct your nonwork activities are from your work activities, the more recovered you will feel at the end of your weekend.

Complementary Work and Recovery

Given this, how should you be spending your weekends? What you find most restorative will depend on the nature of your work.

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Because so much of my work throughout the week is cerebral and done at a computer, I find that activities that are outdoors and physically engaging are incredibly restorative—even if they’re technically “labor.” A few weekends ago I spent the weekend stacking two cords of wood at our home, then helped a friend spread cedar chips. I ended up sore, but happy and refreshed.

I’ve seen similar stories from clients who have chosen to engage in recreative activities that complement their work.

  • One client, a tenured law professor, turned to painting to relieve stress, refresh her spirits, and spark her creativity. For several winter months, she awoke early and painted a small watercolor with soil paints. The pursuit opened up new creative avenues for her; she wrote a book to inspire other lawyers.
  • Another client, a writer, chooses a sewing or woodworking project when she needs a break from wordsmithing. She says it engages her creativity in a different way, engaging the problem-solving and engineering part of her brain and allowing her to come back to her creative writing refreshed.

Whatever the activity, it seems participation is a key factor in how it affects us. A 2014 study followed two cohorts in 10-week classes. One group was given art lessons and actively produced paintings, while the other only viewed and discussed art. The group that produced art saw increased connectivity in the brain’s default mode network, which can improve our ability to be creative and imaginative.

Your Own Best Weekend Recovery

Which activities will help you recover best over the weekend? Start by asking yourself the following questions.

1. What is the mental nature of your work?

Those in noncreative jobs should look for ways to explore their creativity on the weekends, such as taking up a new hobby.

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If you’re in a creative field, try giving your mind a few days to recover while you engage in physical work, or a complementary hobby that lights up other parts of your brain besides what you use in your work.

2. What is the physical nature of your work?

For those of us who spend our days physically sitting at a computer or desk, activities that get our bodies moving can be good recovery. Those who are more active throughout the week might find stillness to be the best thing for them.

Think about your environment. Do you spend most of your work week in an office or in the city? Try an activity that gets you into a natural environment. Do you spend your days in a home office? Try an activity that gets you out into a more social space.

3. What is the social nature of your work?

Changing up who you interact with throughout the week can also make a difference. If most of your work is solo, consider taking a weekend class or going on an outing with friends. If you spend your week in meetings, maybe a solo hike or a morning spent reading are just what you need to unwind.

Whatever activity you choose, I encourage you to experiment with your weekends and vary the pattern of your recovery to learn how you can best show up refreshed on Monday morning.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/tracking-wonder/202209/the-science-weekend-recovery