1. Buybacks Coming Back Next Week…Blackout Period Clears

2. Another Bull Market Stock Softbank Holding 200 Week Moving Average

3. Emerging Market Small Cap Holding 200 Week Moving Average

www.stockcharts.com

4. One-Year Inflation Break Even 2.9%

Marketwatch-Using CPI inflation swaps, I calculated the one-year forward, one-year inflation break-evens — basically, the expected inflation between July 2023 and July 2024, which is represented in the chart above and sits at 2.9%. By Alfonso Peccatiello

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-vowed-to-crush-inflation-with-higher-rates-then-the-stock-market-rallied-heres-why-its-not-good-news-11659037159?mod=home-page

5. Big Options Bets on Volatility Disappear

Options on VIX have been getting cheaper as investors give up bets on big shifts in volatility.

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-july-28th-2022/

6. Hong Kong Stocks -10% in July

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gloom-returns-china-stocks-worst-093652919.html

7. Alphabet Revenue Breakdown

Alphabet is A-OK

It’s still all about Search. That was the five-word soundbite that you might have come away with had you combed through Alphabet’s latest quarterly update yesterday.

Although the company reported a slowdown, Alphabet still managed to grow its second quarter revenue some 13% in the last year. Whilst not a home-run performance, it was something of a relief following the recent reports of digital ad rivals Snapchat and Twitter, both of which disappointed investors. At the time of writing it’s been good enough for Alphabet shares to climb 4% this morning.

Still searching

Google Search, which still represents more than half of Alphabet’s total business, saw ad sales grow 14% in the most recent quarter — significantly outperforming YouTube which only grew 5%. That confirms a long-held theory that the search ad market might be less fickle than the social media ad market.

In a recession people might not click that flashy e-commerce ad on Instagram or Snapchat quite as much as they used to, but they seem to still be searching Google for “cheapest car insurance”, “restaurants near me” or “best value vacations” — all of which Google can monetize.

www.chartr.com

8. Until Now Mortgage Rates Have Always Been Higher Than Inflation

John Burns Real Estate This is clearly a “never before” moment in time.
Mortgage rates have always been higher than inflation.
Also, not how tight the spread has been since the Fed started buying mortgage-backed securities in 2009.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

9. Coal Consumption Will Set a Record in 2023

Bloomberg Today’s Take: Coal is still king

This Sunday marks the 110th anniversary of the beginning of one of the most important energy transitions. On July 31, 1912, Winston Churchill, then Britain’s First Lord of the Admiralty, established a Royal Commission on Fuels and Engines to explore shifting the Royal Navy from coal to fuel oil.

Churchill convinced the navy to abandon coal-fired steam boilers. And over the next century, the world energy map transformed itself, first through the rise of oil and later to solar and wind power. The ecological movement became a major political force, pushing the fight against climate change.

And coal? It’s still there, king as always.

The International Energy Agency this week said global coal demand in 2022 will match the all-time high set in 2013 of about 8 billion metric tons. And next year, coal consumption will set a fresh record high.

It bears repeating: global demand for coal, the most-polluting fossil fuel, is still rising. The gap between the reality of the coal market and the well-intentioned words uttered at climate conferences has never been wider.

And it isn’t just absolute demand. Even as a share of the world’s primary energy, coal consumption remains robust. Last year, coal accounted for 27% of the world’s primary energy, a couple of percentage points higher than two decades ago, and about the same level as 50 years ago.

With demand rising – in part due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and supply stagnant, the world is paying a steep financial cost for coal alongside the environmental toll. In Europe, coal prices this week surged to a record above $400 per ton.

As important as the surge in spot prices is the fact that the whole forward curve has moved much higher in recent weeks. If in March, just after Russia’s attack, the market saw a short-term rally, now it’s betting on sustained high prices through the rest of 2022, into 2023 and even 2024.

It’s an increasingly expensive addiction the world just can’t seem to kick.

–Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-29/coal-is-still-king-of-the-energy-system-elements-by-javier-blas?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

10. Farnam Street Blog …READING TIPS-Taking Notes

The Blank Sheet

The single biggest change you can make to getting more out of the books you read is using the blank sheet method.

Over the years I’ve tested multiple approaches and this one works best for simplicity and effectiveness — it will 10x your comprehension overnight.

The blank sheet primes your brain for what you’re about to read and shows you what you’re learning.

Here’s how it works:

1. Before you start reading a new book, take out a blank sheet of paper. Write down what you know about the book / subject you’re about to read — a mind map if you will.
2. After you finish a reading session, spend a few minutes adding to the map with a different color.
3. Before you start your next reading session, review the page.
4. When you’re done reading, put these ‘blank sheets’ into a binder that you periodically review.

An example I made when I was reading a new book by Jeff Immelt—someone whom I was preparing to interview for The Knowledge Project.

Why does this work so well?

The blank sheet primes your brain for what you’re about to read and shows you what you’re learning.

When you first start with a blank sheet, you’re forced to search your memory and put on paper what you know (or what you think you know) about a subject.

As you read, you literally see that knowledge grow as you add new knowledge to the foundation. Often, you’ll even remove things you thought you knew.

Reviewing what you knew about a subject, as well as what you learned before a reading session not only improves memory and recall but helps connects ideas. Most of the early connections come from putting the authors’ raw material onto your foundation.

If you don’t know anything about the subject before you start, don’t worry. You’ll be able to borrow the scaffolding in the book to get you started.

As your cognitive fluency in a subject grows, you’ll start connecting ideas across disciplines, disagreeing with authors about specific points, and even developing your own ideas.

When you’re done with the book put the page into a binder. Review the binder every few months. This last step is essential for establishing deep fluency and connecting ideas across disciplines.

Conventional Notes

Forget the teacher that yelled at you for writing in your book when you were a kid. You bought this thing. It’s your property. You need to write in the margins.

Here is a very simple process to take notes while reading:

• At the end of each chapter write a few bullet points that summarize the main idea or specific points. Use your own words and not the authors. Try and connect it to something in your life — a memory or another idea. Also, make note any unanswered questions you had while reading.
• When you’re done the book, put it down for a week.
• Pick up the book again and go through all your notes. In a lot of cases, reading your notes will be as good as reading the book again.
• On the inside cover write out the main idea of the book using your own words. If you find yourself stuck, review your notes. (This is called the Feynman Technique). Writing is the process by which we often discover we don’t know what we are talking about.
• You can even make a custom index on the back cover with themes or topics.
• (Optional) Copy out the excerpts by hand and put them on the back of your blank sheet from above or type them out and put them into Evernote. Tag accordingly.

The point of both conventional notes and the blank sheet is to connect new knowledge to old knowledge and point out gaps in your understanding. Writing about what you read is a great way to see what you’ve learned.

https://fs.blog/newsletter/

1. 10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate has Dropped by 1/3

What does 10 year breakeven inflation rate mean?

The 10 year breakeven rate measures the difference or gap between 10 year Treasury Bond and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The 10 year breakeven rate serves as an indication of the markets’ inflation expectations over the 10 year horizon.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

2. Price to Sales and Price to Book S&P

S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio

S&P 500 Price to Book Value

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book

3. Highest Inflation in 40 Years…Nasdaq -30%+…VIX sideways no spike.

4. Lumber -50% from Highs

 www.stockcharts.com

5. Homebuilders Hold 200 Week Moving Average

Barrons Cheapest Stocks in S&P—3 are Homebuilders-DHI, PHM, LEN.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cheapest-sp500-stocks-now-51653346274

6. Crude Oil Back to Pre Ukraine Invasion Levels

Bespoke Investment Group-Gas prices are of course driven by the price of crude oil, and in Friday’s Morning Lineup, we noted that crude oil prices have now fallen back to the level they were at when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine back in late February:

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/charts-of-the-week-from-bespoke-7-22-22

7. Earnings Estimates Developed Versus Emerging Markets

Earnings Outlook:  Emerging Markets are usually a few steps ahead of developed markets given the heavy weightings in EM equities to traditional cyclical sectors (and hence sensitivity to the ebb and flow of the global economy).

As such, Developed Markets, and more specifically S&P 500 earnings estimates are likely the next shoe to drop in all this.

Source: @Mayhem4Markets  Found at Callum Thomas Weekly Chart Storm

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-24-july

8. Most Common Statues in America

Washington Post Analysis by Andrew Van Dam

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/15/diversity-statues-highways/

9. The Inflation Adjusted Cost of Baseball Game 1960 vs. 2022…..Its Out of Reach for Working Class Americans

The Hustle Zachary Crockett

America’s favorite family outings are increasingly out of reach

https://thehustle.co/americas-favorite-family-outings-are-increasingly-out-of-reach/

10. Risk Tolerance is the Scarcest Resource at Most Companies.

From Farnam Street https://fs.blog

Risk, decisons, and scarcity-Jason Fried
This weekend I took a long walk with a fellow founder/CEO. We talked on the phone before, but never met in person. We found ourselves in the same city, so it felt like it was time to shake hands and catch up IRL.

He runs a company that’s an order or magnitude larger than 37signals, so his experiences, responsibilities, and perspectives are quite a bit different from mine. But as we’ve careened towards our own renewed growth phase — we’re currently larger than we’ve ever been, and still hiring — a few of his insights really resonated.

And one really stuck.

When he said it, I had to repeat it to make sure I heard it right. I wanted to sear the words in my brain so I both fully understood and wouldn’t forget.

He said “Risk tolerance is the scarcest resource in most companies.” I just love how that’s framed.

He then went on to say, and this one I’m paraphrasing a bit, that it’s the one of the things that sets founder-led companies apart from founder-less companies. Founder-led companies tend to take more risks. They’re more risk tolerant, less risk averse.

He also related this to company size. This one’s a bit more obvious — the larger the company, the more risk averse they are, even if they’re still founder-led. But it’s not just a pure function of size, which is the typical conclusion. No, it’s about distance. The further away a founder is from would-be risky decisions, the more likely those decisions will be safe decisions. It’s only natural.

It made me realize something I may have inherently understood, but hadn’t really realized was a unique responsibility of a founder who’s still running the show: It’s my job — my obligation, really — to fill the coffers with risk. It’s my role to make sure there’s an ample supply. No one else will produce it, and few will introduce it. The more it’s drained, the more it needs to rain.

While the company at large is focused on results, founders should be focused on taking chances.

There are certain risks founders need to take that others will not. Step function changes, for example. Things that can’t be explained by past results and experiments, but a hunch that the equation has changed. All the while keeping in mind that there’s a notable difference between taking a risk and putting yourself at risk.

So, if you’ve decided you want to take a risk, then take it. If you don’t, then keep talking about it — it’ll almost certainly talk you out of it. The safer option is the most abrasive — it’ll wear down the risk, polish the edges, and make the object of beautiful and smooth. But risk needs to snag, or it isn’t much of a risk at all.

-Jason

https://world.hey.com/jason/risk-decisons-and-scarcity-d4c7636c

1. One-Year Treasury Coupon 3.13%

2. Natural Gas -42% Correction Before July Bounce Back.

3. Banks -33% Correction….Bounce Yesterday

4. XLF Financials ETF 16 Straight Weeks of Outflows.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-The $28.4 billion Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (ticker XLF) has seen outflows for 16 straight weeks, the longest such streak in its 23-year history, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Almost $11 billion has been wiped away in that span, shrinking the fund’s total assets by roughly 28%.

5. Netflix Sideways Pattern on Chart Since April…Forming Bottom?

Long-Term Chart on NFLX Show True Damage…$700 to $180

6. Schwab Chart of Updated Global Equity Valuations

7. Microsoft and 200 Day Moving Average

Michael Batnick–Microsoft hasn’t been this far below its 200-day moving average since 2012.  https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/07/14/everything-must-fall/

8. ESG Have Largest Monthly Outflow on Record

Found at Zerohedge https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/esg.jpg?itok=TudIfEVf

9. 58% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck after inflation spike — including 30% of those earning $250,000 or more

Jessica Dickler@JDICKLER

KEY POINTS

• With inflation still near 40-year highs, more than half of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, according to one report.
• Consumers who are struggling to afford their day-to-day lifestyle tend to rely more on credit cards and carry higher monthly balances making them financially vulnerable.
• Even top earners say they are stretched thin, the report found.

With inflation at 40-year highs, workers across all income levels are having a harder time making ends meet.

As of May, 58% of Americans — roughly 150 million adults — live paycheck to paycheck, according to a new LendingClub report. That’s down slightly from 61% who reported living paycheck to paycheck in April but up from 54% in May 2021.

Even top earners say they are stretched thin, the report found. Of those earning $250,000 or more, 30% are living paycheck to paycheck. (Another recent survey, from consulting firm Willis Towers Watson, estimated 36% of those earning $100,000 or more are living paycheck to paycheck.)

“Consumers have experienced a tough last couple of years as different factors have affected their financial lifestyle, and there seems to be little relief in sight,” said Anuj Nayar, LendingClub’s financial health officer.

With inflation, paychecks don’t stretch as far

The consumer price index, a key inflation gage, rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, the highest increase since December 1981, spurred by surging housing, gasoline and food costs.

Those rising prices meant workers took another pay cut during the month.

When wages rise at a slower pace than inflation, paychecks won’t stretch as far at the grocery store or the gas pump — making it more difficult to cover monthly expenses and set some money aside.

Credit card balances contribute to financial vulnerability

Those struggling to afford their day-to-day lifestyle tend to rely more on credit cards and carry a higher monthly balance, making them financially vulnerable, the survey said.

Overall, credit card balances rose year over year, reaching $841 billion in the first three months of 2022, according to a separate report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

At this rate, balances could soon reach record levels amid higher prices for gas, groceries and housing, among other necessities, according to Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.

For its part, the Federal Reserve has been hiking its target federal funds rate in an effort to calm runaway inflation.

However, anyone carrying a balance will also see the annual percentage rate on their credit card head higher as the Fed continues to raise rates to try and tamp down rising prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/more-than-half-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-amid-inflation.html#:~:text=As%20of%20May%2C%2058%25%20of,from%2054%25%20in%20May%202021

10. Arete: The Meaning of Life

I’ll admit that this is an ambitious post title. Thinkers have struggled against this question for thousands of years. One of the interesting things about this question is that the answers don’t converge on a single point. Instead there are many different methods to answer what might be the most important human question.

I’m certainly not going to answer that question in a blog post. Not only would that be incredibly presumptuous of me, but I think it sort of misses the point. Who wants to live a life where you’re handed all the correct answers in advance?

Instead, I’d like to focus on one viewpoint to this problem that I stumbled upon recently. This is a perspective I hadn’t heard before and nicely deals with some of the uncomfortable problems I feel have been brought up with the current Western stance on the problem. This answer to the meaning of life is simply: arete.

What is Arete?

Arete is an ancient Greek word meaning excellence or virtue. The arete of something is the highest quality state it can reach. Using arete as a principle for living life means that you are focused on the quality of everything you do and experience. Avoid actions that lack arete. Take actions that focus on arete.

When most people think of virtue, they look at moral virtue. But arete as a way of describing quality, touches on much more than that. A beautiful painting can have arete, even though it isn’t ethically superior to a dull painting.

I believe arete is a more comprehensive way of viewing life than the two main directions I see from popular Western philosophies.

Happiness or Service? Pick a Side.

I’m grossly simplifying philosophy here (so if you’re well versed in philosophical teachings, hopefully you won’t take offense to my blunt-club treatment of the topic). But in most of the readings I’ve done of major Western views on the meaning of life, I could clump them into two broad categories: happiness or service.

Pursuing Love and Happiness

“Don’t worry, be happy.” – Bobby McFerrin

The first viewpoint is that the ultimate meaning in life is happiness. Not just the naive happiness of short-term pleasure, but the long-term, pursuit of your dreams, happiness. From this viewpoint, your goal should be to maximize your long-term happiness by taking the best actions you feel will reach you there.

As a whole, I don’t feel this philosophy is completely broken. While a few people might be able to achieve happiness without connecting and providing value to the world, I don’t think most could. So the naive view that this philosophy degenerates into addiction and selfishness isn’t valid.

But the problem with this philosophy is that it isn’t always practical. Happiness can often twist on itself when you make it the goal of your actions. Getting the dream job, spouse or million dollars leaves you as unhappy as you were before. Pursuing happiness completely may also feel somewhat shallow as if the entire point of your existence rests on a few neurotransmitters in your brain.

Pursuing Service and Purpose

“At first I thought that life was joy. Then I learned that life was duty. Finally, I acted and, behold, duty was joy.” – Rabindranath Tagore

The second stream of Western thought in my blunt-club look at life philosophies is focusing on purpose and service. This stream of thought usually focuses on helping other people as a means of achieving meaning in life.

Just with our first philosophical stream, the naive view points out that a life devoted to service misses out on happiness. You’re so busy helping others that you don’t have a chance to enjoy life for yourself. I don’t feel this is a valid criticism, because as Tagore said, “duty was joy.” Serve and you will be happy.

But like the other philosophy, I feel this approach suffers from a weakness. The philosophy, if you look at it closely, tends to loop back on itself. The meaning of your life comes from having a purpose. Therefore your purpose is to have a purpose. It doesn’t take too much thinking to wonder whether there is a purpose to your purpose.

I don’t feel this small flaw destroys an entire viewpoint of the world, but it does make it somewhat less useful.

Pursuing Arete

“And what is good, Phaedrus, And what is not good — Need we ask anyone to tell us these things?” – Socrates

Instead of using words like “happiness” or “purpose” I prefer the word arete. Arete, covers the idea that there is an excellence in everything. Pursuing that excellence, whether it creates happiness for yourself or service for others, should be your ultimate goal. I see both happiness and service as being subsets of the larger domain of arete.

Who decides what has quality? I’m not going to touch this question and instead tell you to read Robert Pirsig’s, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. Pirsig believed that quality (or arete) was the underlying substance of the universe, from which both the subjective and objective are derived. Quality creates the mind and it creates the world.

On a more practical level, arete is a nifty word to have. It fits easily in the backpocket of your life philosophy and makes it easier to decide what you should focus on. Instead of focusing on just your total happiness or your total service, you focus on the quality of whatever you do.

Here are a few ways I’ve been trying to incorporate the philosophy of arete into my own life:

1. Gym Workouts. To me, strength, speed and flexibility are all signs of arete. Rather than put my emphasis on goals when exercising (from the happiness philosophy) or how being healthy will help me aid society (service philosophy), I focus on quality. Therefore, when I’m at the gym, I try to make my goal to have private excellence: lifting more weight, running faster or working harder.
2. Blog Writing. The happiness/service split here would be focusing on writing articles that will get me massive traffic flows or focusing on writing articles that will provide immense value to people. Instead I’d like to focus on arete–making each article the best expression of an idea that I can within the constraints.
3. Relationships. Instead of focusing on how people can help me, or how I can help people, focus on arete. What is quality in a relationship? My guess would be connection, sharing, loyalty, deep conversations or laughter.
4. Knowledge. I’m reading through The Wealth of Nations right now for fun. The book is difficult to read and requires more effort than a more entertaining novel. Why am I reading it? Because, for me, this book has arete. It represents a significant leap forward in human thought and I want to be a part of that journey Adam Smith started.
5. Food. Instead of eating for taste, weight goals or even long-term health, eat for arete. Eat the foods that have quality to you. This applies both in taste and nutrition. Eating greasy junk or cardboard-flavored health snacks both fail my model of arete.
6. Speech. Are your sentences peppered with um’s and ah’s? Do your words have clarity and meaning, or do you not know when to shut up? I’ve been trying to debug my communication patterns to help fit in with this model of quality.

These are just a few examples, but I thought I’d like to demonstrate a few of the practical applications from a life philosophy. I like to view philosophies to be like algorithms for life. If you have a great algorithm, you can solve problems with few flaws. Arete, while it isn’t perfect, is a fantastic algorithm for life.

https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/2008/03/12/arete-the-meaning-of-life/

1. Major Indices Holding Above 200 Week Moving Averages.

S&P above 200 week

Nasdaq Comp above 200 week

www.stockcharts.com

2. Dow Jones and Dow Transports Above 200 Week

Dow Industrials

Dow Transports

3. Small Caps had Worse First Half Ever…Holding Sideways on 200 Week

www.stockcharts.com

4. Japanese Yen Falls to 20 Year Low vs. U.S. Dollar

www.stockcharts.com

5. Overall Asian Currencies have Slumped to Historical Lows vs. Dollar

Bloomberg-Unstoppable Dollar Risks Worsening $71 Billion Asia Stock Exodus

Unstoppable Dollar Risks Worsening $71 Billion Asia Stock Exodus-Ishika Mookerjee

(Bloomberg) — The dollar’s relentless rise is threatening to trigger more outflows from Asia’s emerging-market shares, spoiling hopes of the region making a comeback in the second half.

A gauge of Asian currencies has slumped to its lowest in more than two years, an ominous sign for equities given their strong relationship with moves in foreign exchange. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index has fallen 20% as foreign investors took $71 billion out of stock markets in emerging Asia outside China so far this year, already double the outflows in 2021.

The dollar has steamrolled through global currency markets lately, benefiting from bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. A stronger greenback bodes ill for Asian stocks when it signals lower risk appetite and is also seen as negative for growth in emerging economies, many of which rely on imports priced in the currency.

“The dollar is strengthening because there’s risk aversion rather than growth” and that’s “not a good mix” for Asian assets, said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unstoppable-dollar-risks-worsening-71-000000106.html

6. South Korea Chipmakers Inventory Build

QUARTZ Meanwhile, South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance reports that Korean chipmakers are sitting on a rapidly growing stockpile of unsold chips. The country, which is the world’s biggest producer of memory chips for electronics like laptops and smartphones, hasn’t seen its semiconductor inventory rise this fast since 2018.

https://qz.com/2186673/its-the-best-and-worst-of-times-for-semiconductor-supply-chains/

From Barry Ritholtz blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/weekend-reads-525/

7. The Tesla of China ….BYD Hit All-Time Highs

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BYDDF:OTCMKTS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwivy7jdg4H5AhW3hYkEHSPKCpMQ3ecFegQIFxAY

2022-BYD +11% vs. TSLA -32%

www.yahoofinance.com

8. Tesla’s Layoffs All Scooped Up Already

Here’s where Tesla’s recently laid-off talent is going

Fred Lambert

@FredericLambert

https://electrek.co/2022/07/11/where-tesla-recently-laid-off-talent-going/

9. 10 Places Where the Housing Market’s Tide Has Turned

1. Yield Curve Full Inversion.

CNBC-Yield curve inversion between 10-year and 2-year rates reaches biggest point since 2000

Samantha Subin@SAMANTHA_SUBINMatt Clinch@MATTCLINCH81

The 2-year Treasury yield popped Wednesday while its 10-year counterpart fell, pushing the so-called inversion between the two to its biggest level since 2000. Yield-curve inversions are seen by many on Wall Street as signals that a recession lies on the horizon.

The 2-year, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, traded more than 9 basis points higher at around 3.138%. The benchmark 10-year rate, meanwhile, slid nearly 4 basis points to 2.919%. Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.

Those moves came after the U.S. government said after the consumer price index rose 9.1% on a year-over-year basis in June. That’s well above a Dow Jones estimate of 8.8% and marked the fastest pace for inflation since November 1981. It also added to worries of even tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-higher-as-traders-prepare-for-inflation.html

2. U.S. Steel -57% in 3 Months…Back to Covid Levels

U.S. Steel Stock hit $16.50 intra-day 2020 levels

www.stockcharts.com

3. European Brent Crude Priced in Euros

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

4. Commodities Decline from Peaks

@samRo

(20) Sam Ro  (@SamRo) / Twitter

5. Odds of 100 Basis Point Raise in July Hit 30%

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

6. Inflation Breakeven Inflation Rates Falling Quickly

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab-Breakeven rates descending quickly over past 3 months … drop in 1y, 5y, and 10y is steepest since summer 2020

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSounders

7. Public Companies Record Stock Buybacks in Q2

WSJ By Hannah Miao Companies are also using their cash to repurchase their own shares at record levels, with second-quarter buybacks expected to set a fresh high of $286.4 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

CSD-Buyback ETF Clear Down Channel on Chart….broke uptrend line going back to end of 2019

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dividend-payouts-hit-record-despite-rocky-stretch-in-markets-11657618381?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

8. Chinese Homebuyers Across 22 Cities Refuse to Pay Mortgages

(Bloomberg) — Across China, homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages as property developers drag on construction projects, escalating the country’s real estate crisis and risks of bad debt for banks.

Buyers of 35 projects across 22 cities have decided to stop paying mortgages as of July 12 due to project delays and a drop in real estate prices, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Griffin Chan wrote in a research report distributed on Wednesday.

The payment refusals underscore how the storm engulfing China’s property sector is now affecting the country’s middle class, posing a threat to social stability. Chinese banks already grappling with challenges from liquidity stress among developers now also have to brace for homebuyer defaults.

Now is “a critical time for social stability,” said Chan, adding that “the forgoing of down payments may bring social instability.”

A drop in home values hasn’t helped. Average selling prices of properties in nearby projects in 2022 were on average 15% lower than purchase costs in the past three years, according to Citigroup’s research.

The contagion is spreading to banks. Non-performing loans triggered by the wave of mortgage payment snubs could reach as much as 561 billion yuan ($83 billion), about 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance, according to Chan.

While the overall impact on banks will be “manageable,” state lenders including China Construction Bank Corp., Postal Savings Bank of China Co. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. may have more exposure to mortgages, and could suffer setbacks amid dampened investor sentiment, Chan wrote.

Postal Savings Bank’s shares fell 3.3% as of 2 p.m. in Shanghai, while ICBC declined 2%. The CSI 300 Banks Index fell as much as 2.7%, the most since April 25.

For Chinese banks, the non-performing loan ratio of mortgages was well below the level of other forms of lending, according to the banking regulator. At China Construction Bank, only 0.2% of its residential mortgages were bad as of December, compared with 1.42% for total loans.

The latest development comes at a time when renewed risks of Covid restrictions also pose a threat to the industry. A key real estate index fell for a third day Wednesday, heading for the lowest level since March.

Read: How China’s property bond plunge is spreading

A Bloomberg index of China’s high-yield dollar bonds fell to the lowest in a decade as of Tuesday. Domestic bonds of large property developers, including Gemdale Corp. and Country Garden Holdings Co., also slumped to record lows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-homebuyers-across-22-cities-062113892.html

9. Home Prices Slowdown but the U.S. is Still Under Built

@robanderson_stl

While the cyclical story could continue to weigh on the Homebuilding sub-industry, long-term fundamentals remain strong. NDR estimates around a 2.5 million unit shortage in housing for 2022 due to persistent underbuilding since the GFC. 2/4

https://twitter.com/robanderson_stl

10. ‘They couldn’t even scream any more. They were just sobbing’: the amateur investors ruined by the crypto crash

The Guardian Sirin Kale

The mania around bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies was fuelled by a social media hype machine unprecedented in the history of financial markets. Investors touted new coins that were amassing huge returns, hung off the tweets of crypto-influencers and spoke in impenetrable jargon. “Demand for bitcoin related purely to the level of interest in this new technology, and that interest was manipulated by the companies that offered different cryptocurrencies and exchanges and startups,” Yarovaya says. “All of this happened on social media, meaning that investors didn’t even know whether there was genuine interest in crypto, or lots of Twitter bots encouraging people to buy. The system wasn’t transparent.”

There are eight stages of crypto-crash grief.

Shock. “I couldn’t eat or sleep for two nights,” says Alla Driksne, a 34-year-old chef from London. “I got sick from the stress.” She has lost her life savings – a six-figure sum – in the Celsius freeze.

Denial. “I always thought the next project would bring me back up again and I’d cash out before it crashed,” says Roy. “In the next cycle, I’m going to try. In the next cycle, I’m going to do it again.” A part of him still believes this is possible.

Anger. Alex Koh, a 41-year-old engineer and personal finance YouTuber from Glasgow, directs his towards Do Kwon, the South Korean entrepreneur who founded terra/luna. Koh says he lost enough to buy a four-bedroom house in London. Kwon has been accused of fraud by five investors based in South Korea; he is being investigated there by a financial crimes unit and in the US by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The rollercoaster has taken crypto holders on a downward spiral. Many people have been caused serious financial pain

Susannah Streeter

Bargaining. Vahid, a 31-year-old from London, has used Twitter to plead for his money with Alex Mashinsky, the founder of Celsius. Vahid’s life savings, more than £50,000 in cryptocurrency, is locked in his Celsius account. Vahid had planned to use the money to start a business or buy a house. For support, he spends his time on conference calls with other Celsius victims; I listen in to one. “I know anything short of getting your native token [initial investment] back is unacceptable,” says one investor, with desperation in his voice. “But would you rather get back 10%, or 20%, or 34%, you know? Now, I’m hoping it’s not a complete loss.”

Depression. “I thought I’d be able to retire early,” says Koh. “But it’s all gone down the drain. I’ve never cried so much in my life.”

Acceptance and hope. “I worked my ass off doing 16-hour days for six years to earn this money,” says Driksne. “This is hard-earned money. That’s what hurts the most. I lost six years of hard work. But I am trying to stay positive. I’ll make it back again.”

Shame. Vahid hasn’t told anyone he has lost his life savings. “I don’t want people turning around to me, saying: you should have taken your money out last year,” he says. I ask him if he is embarrassed. “Of course,” he responds.

Processing. “I hope that I can show that I am willing to learn and accept my mistakes,” says Koh. “If I rebound from this, perhaps I can be an inspiration to people elsewhere around the world – or my kids, at least.”

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash