Still, traders “have their eyes open on a few different sectors and categories” that they feel are poised to do well, Metzger said, noting that they are bullish on value stocks and fixed income, as well as energy, healthcare, utilities and consumer-staples sectors.
Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Better Breadth Unlike the summer rally, the rip higher in stocks late last week came in response to inflation data that was actually better than expected. It was also aided by the drop in bond yields and the continued retreat in the U.S. dollar. In addition, there are now 56% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages vs. 51% at the mid-August high—at which point the index was 330 points higher than it was as of Friday’s close. We continue to believe the average stock will do well relative to the largest cap stocks (i.e., equal weight will continue to outperform cap weight).
The rally was also aided by quite dour investor sentiment conditions leading into last week. We have been pointing out the better (contrarian) environment for stocks—at least as it related to attitudinal measures of sentiment. Last week’s “crypto carnage” (more on that below) was a likely trigger for behavioral sentiment measures finally falling into line with attitudinal measures.
SentimenTrader’s Panic/Euphoria Model, which is a blend of attitudinal and behavioral sentiment indicators, recently inflected higher from a historically low reading, as shown below. As the accompanying table highlights, although equity market performance was mixed historically in the near-term after similar inflections; it was universally strong a year later.
6. Cintas Corporation Would Seem to be Very Tied to Economic Cycle…..It is not Acting Like Recession 2023.
Cintas about to make new highs……One of the best S&P stocks for last 25 years.
7. Taiwan Semi Big Move Higher but Still not Even Back to Early Sept Highs
8. More on LA Ports…Quietest Month Since 2009
Zerohedge LA Port Head Says October Was ‘Quietest’ Month Since 2009
BY TYLER DURDEN About a year ago, there was a massive queue outside two of America’s biggest ports, located on the West Coast. Now, the ports are coming to a crawl during the peaking shipping season, ahead of the busiest shopping period of the year.
There’s no longer a massive amount of container ships outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, which handle 40% of all cargo containers entering the country.
According to Gene Seroka, head of the Port of Los Angeles, the backlog has all but dissipated. In an online briefing, he said the Port of LA had the quietest October since 2009.
Together, LA and Long Beach are the main seaport gateway into the US economy from China. The quietest October since the GFC is sign retailers and manufacturers have slowed or stopped ordering from overseas due to either high inventories or collapsing demand.
Seroka’s comment Tuesday is another piece to the puzzle of an emerging global slowdown:
We predict in May that an inventory glut, i.e., thereverse bullwhip effect, would cool the booming freight market. It’s peak shipping season — retailers have already canceled overseas orders as freight companies reduce shipping capacity ahead of Black Friday and Christmas.
Companies across the board are bloated with inventories. This can be shown in the inventory-to-sales ratio, reaching multi-decade highs — forcing importers to reduce shipments from overseas suppliers.
Scott Galloway–As they gained territory and resources, each empire continued to expand. Brits in 1910 had witnessed six decades of growth. With each land grab came greater stores of resources, more coffee and molasses to import to their island. This created new markets and business opportunities to fund more land grabs. And the wheel turned.
However, from the British Empire to the Qing Dynasty to the Ottomans, they all have one thing in common: They all fall.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading PAIN TRADE– ETF traders just placed a record wager against the big comeback in tech stocks – As the Nasdaq 100 Index soared late last week, some $658 million was funneled into the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ exchange-traded fund (SQQQ). That’s the largest-ever inflow for a product that aims to deliver three times the opposite performance of the US benchmark for major technology companies.
2. One Inflation Figure Not Coming Down Yet….Residential Energy Prices
8. How Australia became the world’s greatest lithium supplier
By Royce Kurmelovs10th November 2022
As demand soars for electric vehicles and clean energy storage, Australia is rising to meet much of the world’s demand for lithium. While this helps reduce the need for fossil fuels, it raises another question – how can we source lithium sustainably?
Roughly a three-hour drive south of Perth, Western Australia, off the South Western Highway and behind the historic mining town of Greenbushes, the land beyond the town’s primary school falls away to reveal a deep, grey scar.
This is the site of an old tin mine known as the Cornwall Pit. At roughly 265m (870ft) deep, the terraced wall of the pit represents a century’s worth of work that began in 1888 when a pound of tin was lifted out of a nearby creek. When the surface-metal was scoured from the landscape, methods changed eventually giving way to open-cut mining in the host pegmatite vein – an igneous rock with a coarse texture similar to granite.
In 1980, another metal was found at Greenbushes which, at the time, didn’t give the mine owners much pause for thought. Lithium, a soft, silvery-white reactive alkali metal, was considered more of a geological oddity.
A small-scale mining operation began in 1983, extracting lithium for use in niche industrial operations like glass making, steel, castings, ceramics, lubricants and metal alloys. It wasn’t until decades later when the existential risk posed by climate change became widely understood, and governments began talking about replacing the estimated 1.45 billion petrol cars worldwide with electric vehicles, that the reserves at Greenbushes began to be seen in a very different light.
Today the Cornwall tin pit is closed for business, and Greenbushes has become the largest lithium mine in the world.
Demand for lithium could grow to more than 40 times current levels if the world is to meet its Paris Agreement goals
In less than two years, prices for Australian spodumene – a lithium-rich raw material that can be refined for use in laptop, phone and EV batteries – has grown more than tenfold. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, spodumene sold for $4,994 (£4,300) a tonne in October 2022, up from $415 (£360) in January 2021. By 2040 the International Energy Agency expects demand for lithium to grow more than 40 times current levels if the world is to meet its Paris Agreement goals.
This has sparked claims of a new lithium-rush and Australia has positioned itself to be the world’s go-to supplier. Which begs the question, as the world reaches for this metal in an attempt to help with decarbonisation – how sustainable is lithium mining?
=In 2021, the lithium mined at Greenbushes alone accounted for more than a fifth of global production – and it is expected to grow. In 2019 the mine’s owners Talison Lithium received permission to double the site’s size in an A$1.9bn ($1.2bn/£1.1bn) expansion that, when complete, will cover an area 2.6km (1.6 miles) long, 1km (0.6 miles) wide and 455m (1,490ft) deep. At 310m (1,020ft) high, the tallest building in London, The Shard, could be comfortably buried inside.
While Greenbushes is Australia’s largest lithium mine, contributing 40% of the 55,000 tonnes of lithium mined in the country in 2021, there are several others close behind. In total, there are four other hard-rock lithium operations in Western Australia’s legacy mining regions around Kalgoorlie in the east and the Pilbara in the state’s far north. A sixth – the only lithium mine outside Western Australia – is an open-cut mine near Darwin in the Northern Territory, which began operation in early October 2022. Two other mines are in planning with other proposals at various stages of development.
But serious mental decline doesn’t have to be an inevitable part of aging. In fact, certain lifestyle factors have a greater impact than your genes do on whether you’ll develop memory-related diseases.
As a neuroscience researcher, here are seven hard rules I live by to keep my brain sharp and fight off dementia.
1. Keep blood pressure and cholesterol levels in check
Your heart beats roughly 115,000 times a day, and with every beat, it sends about 20% of the oxygen in your body to your brain.
High blood pressure can weaken your heart muscle, and is one of the leading causes of strokes. Ideally, your blood pressure should be no higher than 120/80.
Cholesterol is critical to your brain and nervous system health, too. The American Heart Association recommends getting your cholesterol levels measured every four to six years.
2. Manage sugar levels
Blood sugar is the primary fuel of the brain. Not enough of it, and you have no energy; too much, and you can destroy blood vessels and tissue, leading to premature aging and cardiovascular disease.
Keep in mind that sugar isn’t enemy, excess sugar is. It’s easy for grams of sugar to add up, even if you think you’re being careful — and usually, sugar will sneak in through packaged foods.
Where is the sugar hidden? Look for these in the ingredients list:
· Dextrose
· Fructose
· Galactose
· Glucose
· Lactose
· Maltose
· Sucrose
And be wary of any product that includes syrup, such as agave nectar syrup or high-fructose corn syrup.
3. Get quality sleep
Studies show that people with untreated sleep apnea raise their risk of memory loss by an average of 10 years before the general population.
For most people, a healthy brain needs somewhere between seven and nine hours of sleep a night.
My tips for memory-boosting, immune-enhancing sleep:
· Keep a consistent bedtime and wake-up schedule.
· Turn off devices one hour before bedtime.
· Do something relaxing before bedtime, like listening to soft music or doing mindful breathing exercises.
· Go outside and get in natural sunlight as soon as you can after waking up.
4. Eat a nutritious diet
One way I keep things simple is to have most, if not all, of these items in my grocery cart:
· Fatty fish like salmon
· Avocados
· Nuts
· Blueberries
· Cruciferous veggies like arugula, broccoli, Brussels sprouts and collard greens
When food shopping, I ask myself three questions to help determine whether something is good for my brain:
1. Will it spoil? In many cases, perishable is a good thing. The additives and preservatives that keep food from spoiling wreak havoc on your gut bacteria.
2. Are there tons of ingredients in that packaged food? And for that matter, can you pronounce the ingredients? Or does it look like the makings of a chemical experiment? Also avoid anything where sugar is one of the first few ingredients.
3. Do you see a rainbow on your plate? The chemicals that give fruits and vegetables their vibrant colors help boost brain health.
5. Don’t smoke (and avoid secondhand and thirdhand smoke)
Then there’s thirdhand smoke, which is not actually smoke. It’s the residue of cigarette smoke that creates the telltale smell on clothing or in a room. That residue alone can emit chemicals that are toxic to the brain.
6. Make social connections
In a recent study, people over the age of 55 who regularly participated in dinner parties or other social events had a lower risk of losing their memory. But it wasn’t because of what they ate, it was the effect of the repeated social connection.
· Give a compliment without expecting anything in return.
· Make a phone call to somebody you don’t usually reach out to.
7. Continuously learn new skills
Maintaining a strong memory is not all about brain games like Sudoku, Wordle and crossword puzzles.
Learning skills and acquiring information are much more effective ways to make new connections in the brain. The more connections you make, the more likely you are to retain and even enhance your memory.
When you think about learning something new, approach it the way you would with fitness training. You want to work out different muscles on different days. The same goes for the brain.
Over the course of this week, try cross-training your brain by mixing mental activities (learning a new language or reading a book) and physical learning activities (playing tennis or soccer) .
1. Biggest One Day Decline of 10 Year Yield Since GFC
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank -After last week’s downside surprise in US CPI, we saw some of the biggest daily market moves in years. In fact, as today’s chart of the day points out, the daily decline in the 10yr real Treasury yield on Thursday was the second-largest since the GFC and behind only the initial Covid move in March 2020.
2. Wisdom Tree Weekly from Jeremy Siegel.
If CPI used up to date housing data…core inflation would be zero
4. Follow Up on Dollar Technical Breakdown Last Week….All International Charts on Watch List
EFA Developed International vs. S&P…Will it Bottom?
5. Barrons Stat on Tech Historical Bear Market Rallies
BTIG in Barrons For example, the Nasdaq 100NDX+1.82% (NDX) gained 7.49%. Of the 20 largest NDX daily gains since 1990, 16 of them happened either between April 2000 and May 2002, or in October 2008, none of which marked the end of those bear markets
FTX bought the naming rights to the Miami Heat arena in March 2021. (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk archives)
The collapse of FTX, already one of the most spectacular disasters in financial history, worsened as hundreds of millions of dollars were drained from the cryptocurrency exchange hours after it filed for bankruptcy.
More than $600 million was siphoned from FTX’s crypto wallets late Friday. Soon after, FTX stated in its official Telegram channel that it had been compromised, instructing users not to install any new upgrades and to delete all FTX apps.
“FTX has been hacked. FTX apps are malware. Delete them. Chat is open. Don’t go on FTX site as it might download Trojans,” wrote an account administrator in the FTX Support Telegram chat. The message was pinned by FTX General Counsel Ryne Miller.
Hours later, Miller disclosed in a tweet that FTX US and FTX.com had been moving all their digital assets to cold storage because of the Friday bankruptcy. “Process was expedited this evening – to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions,” he said.
Many FTX wallet holders reported $0 balances in their FTX.com and FTX US wallets. FTX’s API appeared to be down, which could account for this. According to on-chain data, various Ethereum tokens as well as Solana and Binance Smart Chain tokens exited FTX’s official wallets and moved to decentralized exchanges like 1inch. Both FTX and FTX US appear to be affected.
The transfers occurred on the same day that the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. after apparently losing – or misappropriating – billions of dollars in user funds. Suspicions – which are conjecture at this point – circulated online about whether, rather than an outside attack, someone inside the company might’ve been responsible.
On Twitter, members of the cryptocurrency community quickly began to speculatethat the outflows could have been coordinated by a member of Bankman-Fried’s inner circle, pointing out that the simultaneous and sophisticated hacks of FTX and FTX US are indicative of a potential inside job. Twitter sleuth ZachXBT tweeted Friday night that “multiple former FTX employees confirmed to me that they do not recognize these transfers.”
Around midnight Eastern time, FTX’s login portal was unavailable (though the site was still online) giving users a 503 error when they attempted to log in. A 503 error happens when the server is unavailable, commonly because it’s down for maintenance or unavailable for access.
Let’s look at the bright side of the FTX-driven crypto crash to kick off what will likely be another long week for the industry.
There are probably two positives worth considering here.
First, the crypto crash has not spread over into the stock market. The S&P 500 is up 5.9% in the past five trading sessions compared with a 19% drop for bitcoin. Why is this you ask? Simple. The rout is not as huge as the headlines suggest.
“We thinkBitcoin and ETH remain a too small part of the market to cause broader financial market contagion, with a total crypto market cap size of $890 billion vs $41 trillion for U.S. equities,” Citigroup digital asset analyst Joseph Ayoub said in a note to clients. “The FTX shortfall is still relatively small in comparison to other crypto events, such as Luna ($40 billion lost) or market cap losses in public tech names.”
So there’s that.
And two, what has happened with FTX should ultimately set the groundwork for a more stable crypto market over time (hopefully). Maybe that means less booms and busts, which is a positive for investors. There are a couple reasons for that, such as regulators coming in next year with new guardrails and the washout removing froth (maybe fewer crypto events in the Bahamas with Lambos parked outside for the Gram) and bad actors (we’re looking at you, SBF).
What we have witnessed in the past week is a flush out and it’s all good — even if there is pain to be had today.
“This should be a wake-up call that what you thought was worth something is actually not worth anything,” said Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev on Yahoo Finance Live.
Hiring the right talent and helping those people thrive in their positions is one of the biggest challenges any leader, CEO, or founder has, especially since job hopping has become the norm. You not only need to find incredibly smart people, you also need to make sure they stick around, rather than jump to the next best thing around the corner.
The single most important key to this is to make sure that your people are in the right roles for who they are. Often, performance issues are misdiagnosed. If you have someone on your team who’s not working enough, who isn’t performing the way that they should, or who seems bored and disengaged, the issue isn’t always a matter of that person’s ability. Sometimes, it’s a matter of fit. If a job isn’t aligned with someone’s strengths, values, and personality-;it’s pretty impossible for them to succeed.
How can you tell whether your employees are in the right roles? It’s often incredibly subtle, so you need to pay attention. For starters, look for these 10 signs.
They are often bored or disengaged, and you regularly get the sense that their head isn’t in the game.
They just can’t master the tasks they’re assigned, despite lots of feedback as to how to do them better or differently.
They often don’t share their ideas with you or other colleagues. Or, when they do, what they have to offer feels completely off base and unhelpful.
They seem to be struggling with confidence. They rarely participate in group discussions or share their perspective with others.
You can visibly notice that they get frustrated easily.
What is needed for them to perform does not seem to be aligned with their personality or strengths.
You’ve had a sneaking feeling for a while that something just isn’t working.
They communicate that they don’t feel valued, despite feeling that you’ve done everything you can to make them feel valued.
Despite efforts to provide feedback, coaching, and support, their performance doesn’t shift.
They’ve approached you saying that they aren’t happy with the work they’re doing or that they would like a different role.
If you see several of these signs in one of your employees, it’s time to make a change. Navigating transitions are always difficult, but know that you can start the conversation with empathy and compassion.
When you realize that someone on your team isn’t in the right role, ask them to tell you more about who they are, what they’re best at, and what they ultimately want out of their career. It could be that there is another place in the business that they could contribute to that would be a better fit for both of you.
Or, if not, then knowing that they aren’t right for your company is a great thing. It won’t only be good for your business, it’ll ultimately be a positive shift for that person’s career. After all, no one wants-;or can succeed at-;a job that isn’t the right fit for them.
Geoff ZochodneCovers.com As of around 8:00 a.m. E.T. on Wednesday, results showed that both Proposition 26 and Proposition 27 had been defeated. With 94.5% of precincts partially reporting, Prop 26 had been approved by 29.9% of voters, while Prop 27 had only 16.6% support, meaning both were well short of the 50% they needed.
Prop 26 aimed to bring in-person sports betting to racetracks and Native American casinos in California. Prop 27, meanwhile, would have permitted statewide online sports betting via tribes and licensed gambling companies.
Charlie Bilello But CPI Shelter continues to be a lagging indicator, as the real-time housing data has been moving in the opposite direction…
a) Rents are up 5.8% year-over-year, the smallest rate of increase since May 2021.
b) Home prices are up 3.2% year-over-year, their slowest growth rate since the start of the pandemic.
At some point, Shelter CPI will start reflecting this new data, but we don’t appear to be there just yet. There remains a considerable gap between reported and actual housing inflation that will likely be closed in part by continued increases in Shelter CPI.
5. Employment Cost Index Rolling Over.
6. Diesal Fuel Below Highs but Still Up Over 100% Since 2021
Bespoke The Financial sector ETF (XLF) has been on fire since its intraday low of $29.59 on October 13th, which was the day of the hotter than expected September CPI report. From that low point on 10/13, XLF is up 20.2%. As shown below, the ETF is currently at the very top end of a wide sideways range that has been in place over the last six months.
10. Discipline is Often a Carefully Created Environment
Tiny Thought-Farnam Street
Eventually, everyone loses the battle with willpower; it’s only a matter of time. Consider my parents. Neither of them smoked when they joined the armed forces, but it didn’t take long for them to join their smoking co-workers. At first, they resisted, but as the days turned into weeks, the grind of saying no when everyone else was saying yes wore them down. Decades later, quitting proved nearly impossible when they turned to willpower. Everyone around them smoked. The very same force that encouraged them to start was preventing them from stopping. They were only able to kick their habit when they changed their environment. They had to find new friends whose default behavior was their desired behavior.
What looks like discipline is often a carefully created environment to encourage certain behaviors. What looks like poor choices is often someone trying their best to use willpower to go against their environment.
The people with the best defaults are typically the ones with the best environment. Sometimes it’s carefully chosen, and sometimes it’s just plain luck. Either way, it’s easier to align yourself with the right behavior in the right environment.
The way to improve your defaults isn’t by willpower but by creating an artificial environment where your desired behavior becomes the default behavior.
Joining groups whose defaults are your desires is an effective way to create an artificial environment. If you want to read more, join a book club. If you want to run more, join a running club. If you want to exercise more, hire a trainer.
Your environment will do a lot of the heavy lifting for you if you align it with where you want to go.
The S&P 500 gained more than 5% today, the best day since April 2020. This was the 23rd >5% day since 1950. Most tend to happen in clusters, but higher 27.6% a year later and up 90.9% of the time is a nice takeaway. @ryanDetrick
2. Peaks in Fed Policy and Stock Market Performance.
Jennifer Wright Edward Jones Are we getting closer to a peak? While monetary policy tightening phases can be painful for stock and bond market returns, we may be closer to the end of the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign than the beginning. Market expectations currently call for the Fed’s final rate hike to occur at their February 2023 FOMC meeting. Historically, when the Fed’s policy rate peaks, market performance is quite strong in the 12 months that follow: Since 1980, S&P 500 returns during this period have averaged about +15%.
While every cycle is unique, given the negative returns and sentiment this year, markets may certainly welcome a potential pause in Fed tightening.
4. Average Performance of Commodities During Rising and Falling Dollar Environments
Dorsey Wright The graph below shows the average performance of four ETFs representing different areas of the commodities complex, copper (industrial metals), energy, gold (precious metals), and agriculture.
You may be familiar with the gut-brain connection, but according to Harvard psychiatrist Chris Palmer, M.D., author of Brain Energy, truly understanding metabolism is the key to resolving mental health issues. “Metabolism is a process our cells use to break down the products of food, turn it into energy used to maintain or grow cells, and it involves the management of waste products,” he explains on this episode of the mindbodygreen podcast. “Metabolism is fundamental to the definition of life.” He even suggests that mental disorders are metabolic disorders of the brain.
And once you start to connect the dots, you may be able to reach the root of your mental health concerns, whatever they might be. “You can start to understand why neurotransmitters might be dysregulated. You can understand why hormones might be dysregulated. You can understand why vitamin and nutrition deficiencies can cause mental illness,” he adds. And ultimately, you can start to understand just how important a balanced diet is for your mental well-being.
Sure, a healthy metabolism depends on so much more than what you eat, but assessing your diet is a solid place to start. Here, Palmer shares his top grocery staples for a balanced mood.
almon.
First up on Palmer’s list? Wild-caught, sustainably sourced salmon, which is rich in omega-3 fatty acids to enhance both metabolic and brain health. Ample amounts of omega-3s in the body have been linked with healthy blood pressure and circulation; by lowering blood pressure, research shows they may even reduce the risk of CHD (coronary heart disease)1.
In terms of mental health, one study shows that omega-3 fats candecrease stress2, and another demonstrates that diets rich in omega-3 fatty acids can help promote a healthy emotional balance and positive mood. All that to say: You may want to load up on omega-3-rich staples, like salmon, mackerel, anchovies, sardines, and herring (commonly referred to as SMASH).
2. Eggs.
Palmer also considers eggs a great addition to your brain-healthy plate (assuming you can tolerate them). Eggs, you see, are rich in choline, the precursor chemical for acetylcholine, one of the most fundamental neurotransmitters3 that’s important for our nervous systems. (And for what it’s worth, eggs also provide some omega-3s).
3.Low-carb veggies.
“I would definitely encourage low-carbohydrate vegetables,” says Palmer. “Spinach, broccoli, asparagus…Those provide fiber, which can be really helpful and beneficial to most people’s guts.” By feeding the healthy microbes in your gut, you inherently support mental health, too, thanks to the gut-brain axis4.
Not to mention,a meta-analysis of eight studies5 found that leafy green vegetable consumption significantly reduced the risk of cardiovascular disease by 15.8 percent—so consider them a major winner for heart and mental health.
4.Olive oil.
To round out his grocery list, “I would probably go with some type of pure, healthy fat,” says Palmer. “If I had to choose just one, it would probably be olive oil.” High-quality olive oil is brimming with polyphenols, which contain powerful brain-protective antioxidants; the monounsaturated fats in olive oil can also help support healthy cholesterol6. And if you’re at all concerned about increasing longevity, you should know that a study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology found that consuming more olive oil, particularly in place of other fats, may lead to a longer life.
5.Avocado.
But why choose just one healthy fat? “I love avocado,” says Palmer. “I eat avocado all the time.” Not only do the nutritious green globes have tons of fiber, but they also have magnesium, which has shown to be helpful for depression7.
The takeaway.
According to Palmer, a metabolic approach to mental health is crucial for getting to the root of the issue and optimizing well-being for your whole body. They say any food that’s good for your heart is also great for your brain—and with Palmer’s growing research, we can understand exactly why.
