TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 10, 2024

1. WallStreetBets Sentiment Is Back To Its Earlier Highs

Via Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)


2. Assets In Leveraged Long ETFs Exceed Short Product By Record


3. Momentum Stocks Down 4.4% Yesterday

Sachs has what it calls the “high beta momentum long/short index,” and on Monday that grouping tumbled 6.1%, its worst daily performance since Feb. 2023. Morgan Stanley has its own momentum long index, which fell 4.4%; Bloomberg’s ‘pure momentum’ factor suffered its worst day in two years. The definitions slightly vary but all agreed that momo, as it’s called, was a mess.

Momentum stocks after five-day drawdowns.

Via Marketwatch By Steve Goldstein


4. Best Performing 2024 Stocks Were Down 2.9% Yesterday

If you’ve had a good year so far in the stock market, chances are you had a pretty bad day in the market today.  On the surface, today’s action wasn’t awful.  The S&P 500 (SPY) was down 0.5% while the Russell 1,000 was down 0.7%.  Within the Russell 1,000, the average stock was down even less at -0.33%.

So what’s the big deal?  Well, what made today noteworthy was the near-perfect performance distribution based on how stocks had performed so far this year heading into today.  In the chart below, we’ve broken up the Russell 1,000 into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on YTD stock performance through last Friday.  Decile 1 contains the 100 best-performing stocks YTD, decile 2 contains the next best 100, and so on until you get to decile 10, which contains the year’s bottom 10% of performers.  In the chart, we show the average performance today of the stocks in each decile.  As shown, the decile of the best-performing stocks YTD through last Friday was down 2.9% today, while the decile of the worst-performing stocks YTD was up 2%!  As you work your way down from the best decile to the worst, today’s performance gets better and better.

Via Bespoke Investment Group


5. Intraday Momentum Vs. Value Chart

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading: Mike O’Rourke noted the unwind tied to the Morgan Stanley US Momentum Index. “The Long/Short index had a return of 65% year to date coming into today’s session. The index cratered 6.7% in the first 90 minutes of trading today before settling in for a 5.5% decline on the session. It was the largest single day decline for the index since early February of 2023.”


6. Will This Lead To Small/Mid Rotation?

Via Marketwatch


7. MSTR $540 to $365 Approaching First Support Levels


8. ORCL Jumped 70 Points Since Summer

https://fundstrat.com


9. Lithium Supply Surplus Set To Stay With Battery Makers’ Help

Per Reuters: Many lithium mines, led by Chinese operators, are maintaining production of the raw material needed for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, in defiance of prices weak enough to trigger mass output cuts – providing a boon for battery makers.

The continued production raises the prospect of years of oversupply and of weak prices.

Some battery makers own mines or have injected cash into operations to keep them operational, company reports show.

Mines were also maintaining production to retain market share and good relations with governments and because closures and restarts can lead to technical issues, according to interviews with miners, consultants and analysts.

So far, around a dozen lithium producers have temporarily shut loss-making mines, trimmed output or delayed expansions.

Many others are still operating, meaning the global supply glut of the mineral needed for batteries for stationary storage, as well as for EVs, is likely to last for several years and keep prices low, the industry insiders and analysts said.


10. Carpe Diem In A Distracted World

Sum up: We’ll get insight from Roman Krznaric’s book, “Carpe Diem: Seizing the Day in a Distracted World.”

Alright, let’s get seizing…

Here are your options for how to “seize the day”…

  • Live This Day As If It Were Your Last: On the surface this sound like you’re trying to turn your life into some sort of Jackass-meets-the-Purge situation. But it doesn’t need to be that extreme. If you’re not occasionally ditching responsibilities to belt out “Total Eclipse of the Heart” to a crowd of strangers in a karaoke bar at 2 a.m., you’re not living.
  • Live This Year As If It Were Your Last: It’s not the end… but you can see it from here. You have time, but not too much time. This can help you prioritize without going crazy. And you’ll be more grateful.
  • Live This Day As If It Were Your First: “Be present” isn’t just a Pinterest quote for people who wear hemp. Really look around and notice the things you’ve come to ignore. See the world like a child again.
  • Live This Day As If You Were Living It For The Second Time: With the weight of that invisible, non-existent first day looming over you like a disapproving gym coach, you’ll skip some of the dumb decisions that usually leave you feeling like you’ve been hit by the regret bus. And you’ll seize those opportunities that make life memorable.

Via Eric Barker’s blog