3. Transports Chart-A Couple Ticks from New 2024 Lows
4. Semiconductors New Highs
SMH-Semiconductor ETF….Does Dow Theory Stil Matter?
5. China De-Dollarizing Cross Border Transactions
Zerohedge Blog The De-Dollarization of China’s Cross-Border Transactions
This analysis uses Bloomberg data on the share of China’s payments and receipts in RMB, USD, and other currencies from 2010 to 2024.
In the first few months of 2010, settlements in local currency accounted for less than 1.0% of China’s cross-border payments, compared to approximately 83.0% in USD.
China has since closed that gap. In March 2023, the share of the RMB in China’s settlements surpassed the USD for the first time.
Since then, the de-dollarization in Chinese international settlements has continued.
As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD. This is double the share from five years previous. According to Goldman Sachs, foreigners’ increased willingness to trade assets denominated in RMB significantly contributed to de-dollarization in favor of China’s currency. Also, early last year, Brazil and Argentina announced that they would begin allowing trade settlements in RMB.
Most Popular Currencies in Foreign Exchange (FX) Transactions
Globally, analysis from the Bank for International Settlements reveals that, in 2022, the USD remained the most-used currency for FX settlements. The euro and the Japanese yen came in second and third, respectively.
10. While U.S. Kids are on TikTok…….In Russia at war, kids swap classroom for shooting range
By Reuters
VLADIKAVKAZ, Russia, May 24 (Reuters) – Fourteen-year-old Russian schoolboy David learned something new this month: firing accurately with a Kalashnikov is trickier than with a pistol. With other pupils, he got to try out the weapons as part of basic military training – a feature of the school programme that was dropped in the final years of the Soviet Union but has been reintroduced since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine. In the southern city of Vladikavkaz this month teenage boys in camouflage uniform took turns at firing weapons and practising first aid under the eye of instructors. “It’s easier to fire a pistol. And it’s more difficult to take aim with an assault rifle,” said David, a lanky boy with black hair and glasses. He said the firearms practice would “make life easier” for him in the future. Military service is compulsory for young men in Russia, whose war in Ukraine is now well into its third year. Sergei Menyailo, a retired vice-admiral who is now the leader of Russia’s North Ossetia region, referred to the conflict in remarks to the youngsters, telling them the training would help them “to fulfil your military duty within a team” if they had to fight one day. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Report this ad The education ministry issued a decree in late 2022 introducing basic military training into the school curriculum as part of a subject called “basics of life safety”. Critics see it as part of a growing militarisation of Russian society since the start of the war. Boris Kantemirov, local head of a volunteer organisation that supports the armed forces, said the training delivered skills that any soldier would need. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-war-kids-swap-classroom-shooting-range-2024-05-24/
2. List of Countries with Semiconductor Government Funding
Dave Lutz Jones Trading South Korea has unveiled a 26 trillion won ($19 billion) package of incentives to bolster its chip sector – The total is more than double the 10 trillion won Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok had proposed less than two weeks ago. Shares in Samsung reversed earlier losses to gain as much as 1.4 per cent in Seoul after the announcement. Other semiconductor stocks had climbed in Asia in the wake of Nvidia’s earnings blowout. SK Hynix’s stock extended its morning gains and was up about 3 per cent after the news.
Jack Ablin Cresset As equity markets hit new highs, country club costs are surging and meme stocks are on the rise again. Since the end of 2018, the cost of playing golf at public and private golf courses has surged more than 40 per cent, nearly twice the rate of inflation overall.
Barrons On Friday, May Comex gold settled at a record $2412.20 an ounce, up 32.8% from October. WTI crude, meanwhile, trades around $80 a barrel, up from around $70 a year ago, although off from its short-lived pop over $90 after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. (For more on the bullish outlook for energy, see “12 Stocks to Play Growing Energy Demand.”)
Looking at what has happened to gold and oil, “the inflation outlook in the coming year is for a large increase,” Ranson concludes from his model.
6. Two Wars but Oil Volatility Measure Hitting New Lows
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Oil’s implied volatility near lows last seen in 2019 according to one measure, despite ongoing drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and another Houthi attack against a tanker in the Red Sea area over the weekend.
Marketwatch “Demand for electricity was almost flat for two decades. We are now beginning to see this trend reverse — driven by large customers such as industrial manufacturers, data processors and others who require significant amounts of power,” Fowke said as he spoke before the committee.
He told the panel that a large manufacturing facility just a few years ago might have required the same amount of power as 100,000 homes, but now it’s common for a single data center to need up three times, or even 15 times, that amount of juice.
10. Psychologist Adam Grant Says Your Overall Success at Work Comes Down to 3 Familiar Words
The always-brilliant Adam Grant offers a different spin on success and work-life balance. BY MARCEL SCHWANTES, INC. CONTRIBUTING EDITOR AND FOUNDER, LEADERSHIP FROM THE CORE @MARCELSCHWANTES
Adam Grant. Some people subscribe to the idea that work-life balance is critical for achieving success. Wharton organizational psychologist Adam Grant has a different take. He once called work-life balance “mostly a myth” and stressed something else as the key to success. We can boil Grant’s advice down to three words:
Work more hours.
Let’s put that in the right context. In a previous video posted on the Mic Facebook page, Grant tells viewers, “It’s not to say you have to be a workaholic in order to be successful, although the evidence is strong that one of the ways that people become successful is they just work more hours. Or they work with more intense focus than their peers.”
Grant adds, “But I don’t think that means you can’t have a life. The idea that work-life balance means ‘I show up at 10 a.m. and I’m done by 3 p.m.’ is ridiculous. The successful people I know don’t tend to have very balanced days. They will have a whole day where all they do is work. But then the next day, all they do is spend time with their families.”
Work With More Intense Focus
Grant has a good point, and I have seen a big difference in my own productivity when I work with intense focus, but definitely short of crossing the line into workaholism. That’s not healthy and leads to burnout. So, what’s the key? How do you get that same intense focus to maximize your day and get a ton of stuff done? The best way to do it is to achieve a state of flow.
Flow is a state of mind where time flies by and productivity increases. It’s like hitting that sweet spot where everything just clicks. This mental state was studied by psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, in which we benefit from peak experience and performance, enjoying what we’re doing and performing at our best. It’s being “in the zone” where we are entirely focused, free from distractions, and able to learn, grow, and improve.
Here’s how you can tap into it:
Clear Goals: Start by setting clear, achievable goals for what you want to accomplish. When you know what you’re aiming for, it’s easier to stay focused and engaged.
Challenge Yourself: Find tasks that are just challenging enough to keep you engaged but not so difficult that they overwhelm you. Flow happens when you’re stretched just the right amount.
Eliminate Distractions: Minimize interruptions and distractions as much as possible. Turn off notifications, close unnecessary tabs, and create a quiet workspace where you can concentrate.
Focus on the Task at Hand: Dive deep into what you’re doing. Forget about everything else for a while and immerse yourself completely in the task.
Stay Present: Don’t worry about the past or the future. Focus on the present moment and give your full attention to what you’re doing right now.
Take Breaks: Even though you’re in the zone, remember to take short breaks to rest and recharge. This can help prevent burnout and keep your energy levels up.
Once you find your flow, you’ll be amazed at how much more productive and fulfilled you feel. And to Grant’s point, the next day, you’ll feel like you can take the afternoon off to take the kids to the park or enjoy a bike ride on the beach. This is what having a healthy, productive life looks like. You work your butt off first, and then take time to reward yourself later. It’s what Grant meant when he said, “They will have a whole day where all they do is work. But then the next day, all they do is spend time with their families.”
“Without courage we cannot practice any other virtue with consistency. We can’t be kind, true, merciful, generous, or honest.”
— Maya Angelou
**
“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already.”
— Tolstoy
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“People spend too much time on the last 24 hours and not enough time on the last 6,000 years.”
— Will Durant
Tiny Thoughts
The highest form of leverage is reputation.
**
Imagine what you could accomplish if you weren’t focused on being right all the time.
***
Reasoning in public forces discipline of thought.
It’s like doing math on the chalkboard in front of the class. Every step must be clear and correct, or someone will point out the mistake. There’s no room for fuzzy thinking or skipped steps.
If your reasoning is correct, you have nothing to fear. If it’s wrong, you have everything to learn.
4. GE Announced Split of Company in November 2021….Spin-Offs Jan 3, 2023
GE +62% Year to Date.
5. Copper Breaks to New Highs
6. Druckenmiller Bets 15% of His Portfolio on Russell 2000 Small Cap Calls….Tom Lee Pick of Year is Small Cap
Here’s what Druckenmiller did as he sold Nvidia — it’s a risky bet on an unloved asset By Barbara Kollmeyer
The market wanted a reason to rally and got it on Wednesday after data showed slowing inflation and an economy that’s also ratcheting down. That data combination, in theory, may make it easier for the Fed to justify an interest-rate cut, and the market hopes soonish.
But lower rates could also help another group of stocks, which have a tough run this year — small caps. And one big investor seems ready for this bunch of equities to take off. Our call of the day focuses on billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who just revealed a big bet on the Russell 2000 RUT in a newly released 13-F regulatory filing. Through his Duquesne Family Office, Druckenmiller invested a 15% chunk of his portfolio in call options on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM in the first quarter. The filing also confirmed the firm reduced holdings in tech names Nvidia NVDA, +3.58%, which Druckenmiller discussed earlier this month, and Seagate Technology STX, +2.60%. That Russell 2000 bet would indicate that Druckenmiller’s firm smells opportunity for struggling small caps, which investors have struggled to love or even like in recent years.
Business Insider-3 reasons an overlooked area of the stock market is poised for 50% gains this year, according to Fundstrat Tom Lee
“Our top idea for 2024 is small-caps, where we see at least 50% upside,” Fundstrat’s head of research Tom Lee said in a note on Wednesday, noting that small caps are so disdained by the market that even a “wrong-way Charlie” can confidently bet against their success. Lee, who nailed his 2023 stock market forecast, laid down three fundamental reasons to take a closer look at this unloved segment of the roaring US equities market. First, Lee notes that Russell 2000 firms are poised for substantial revenue growth, outpacing the S&P 500 by a significant margin in 2025 from 2024 thanks to the Fed’s potential rate cut this year.
“Now, you may be surprised, but small-caps actually have faster revenue growth. 6.9% versus 5.5%, that’s 140 basis points faster or nearly 25% faster growth, and that’s true in every quintile” Lee said in a video on the topic posted this week.
Second, Lee also highlighted small-caps’ earnings growth potential, projecting 19% growth is earnings-per-share, outpacing the S&P 500’s 12% EPS growth. He said small-caps have an advantage in their lower P/E ratios compared to large-cap stocks, making them look more affordable to investors.
Finally, the Fundstrat CEO noted that institutional investors have been dumping small caps for years, making them ripe for a turnaround trade. “[M]ulti-cap investors have multi-decade low allocations to small-caps even as small-caps have begun to outperform. We see this performance chasing as a key factor for small-caps to sustain gains,” he added.
Item 1 of 7 Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico looks on during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany, January 24, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico looks on during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany, January 24, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Summary
Slovak PM was shot five times at close range on Wednesday
Hospital says his condition is ‘very serious’ but stable
Police charge suspect with attempted murder, says website
Slovakia’s president, president-elect call for calm
Security council, cabinet are meeting on Thursday
BANSKA BYSTRICA, Slovakia, May 16 (Reuters) – Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico was in a “very serious” but stable condition on Thursday, a hospital official said, after he was shot five times in an assassination attempt that has laid bare deep political divisions in the country. The shooting was the first major assassination attempt on a European political leader for more than 20 years, and spurred international condemnation, with political analysts and lawmakers saying it was indicative of an increasingly febrile and polarised political climate across the continent. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Slovak President Zuzana Caputova called for a calming of political tensions and said she would invite all parliamentary party leaders for a joint meeting. Fico ally and President-elect Peter Pellegrini urged parties to suspend or tone down their campaigning for next month’s European Parliament elections. “If there is anything the people of Slovakia urgently need today, it is at least a basic consensus and unity among Slovaks’ political representatives,” said Pellegrini, who won an April election for the mainly ceremonial post of president. Advertisement · Scroll to continue News website tvnoviny.sk reported on Thursday that police had charged the suspect with attempted murder and that he could face life imprisonment. Miriam Lapunikova, director of the F.D. Roosevelt University Hospital in Banska Bystrica where Fico is being treated, said the 59-year-old prime minister had undergone five hours of surgery with two teams to treat multiple gunshot wounds. “At this point his condition is stabilised but is truly very serious, he will be in the intensive care unit,” she told reporters. Slovakia PM Fico’s condition still ‘very serious’ after surgery | Reuters
9. Longer-Term Perspective on Crime..Violent Crime in the U.S. Since 1990s Big Dowtrend
“Choose not to be harmed — and you won’t feel harmed. Don’t feel harmed — and you haven’t been.”
This passage has been highlighted by 11,590 readers in the Kindle edition of Gregory Hays’ translation of Meditations. It’s the most popular quote in the most popular edition (we think that it’s the best edition too).
The reason it resonates is that it articulates in simple terms a timely and timeless truth that is as empowering as it is profound: it’s not events themselves that cause our suffering but how we choose to interpret them. Events are objective, our interpretations are not. They are a guess, a story, an opinion as to what’s happened and what it means, and whether or not our actions are governed by those instant interpretations is a good indicator of exactly how stoically we’re behaving.
Remember Epictetus’s famous observation that every situation has two handles—or two interpretations—and that we choose which one to grab. We decide what story to tell ourselves. We decide how we react. We decide to feel harmed or to not feel harmed. And once we make that choice–choosing not to be offended, choosing to see an opportunity to practice a virtue–then we really haven’t been harmed.
There’s a reason so many people have highlighted that passage. It’s because it’s true.
