1. After Credit Suisse Bailout….UBS CDS Straight Up.

The Market does not like the UBS take under of Credit Suisse.

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2. First Republic Bank -47% in One Day After Bailout.

90% Year to Date

https://www.google.com/search?q=frc+chart&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS898US898&oq=frc+chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i59l2.1544j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

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3. S&P Financials Performance vs. Broad Market Equals Covid Dive

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4. The Biggest Monthly Decline of 2-Year Yields Since 1980’s

The United States: The month-to-date decline has been the biggest since the early 1980s.

Source: The Daily Shot  https://dailyshotbrief.com/

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5. Tech has Reversed All of 2022 Underperformance in Less than 3 Months

The tech sector has reversed nearly all of its 2022 underperformance in less than 3 months…

6. The Biggest Monthly Decline of 2-Year Yields Since 1980’s

The United States: The month-to-date decline has been the biggest since the early 1980s.

7. Tech has Reversed All of 2022 Underperformance in Less than 3 Months

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading The tech sector has reversed nearly all of its 2022 underperformance in less than 3 months…

8. Amazon Another Large Layoff…Doubled Its Physical Footprint in 2020-2022

CNBC For the past year, Jassy has been trimming expenses across the company. Many unproven bets, like Amazon’s Scout delivery robot, a virtual tours service, Care telehealth program, and a video-calling device for kids were axed. He made the decision to shutter all of its 4-star, Pop Up and Books stores and, earlier this year, announced Amazon would close some Fresh supermarkets and Go cashierless convenience marts. Drone delivery, one of Bezos’ pet projects, is struggling mightily to get off the ground as it, too, faces cost cuts

Annie Palmer@ANNIERPALMER https://www.cnbc.com

Amazon trying to form a base in chart this year…watch to see if it holds lows

www.stockcharts.com

9. The Market Voted Negative on UBS/CS Merger Yesterday….Will Swiss Franc Still be Safe Haven? Another Chart to Watch.

Swiss economy dependent on the financial sector

www.stockcharts.com

10. How to Start Your Day Relaxed

Try these tips to help kick off your day in a calm, relaxed state of mind.

Bianca Ward

There are a group of people in the world who are very lucky. These are the ones who never seem to worry about anything. Stress washes over them, and they are able to just take whatever the world throws at them and deal with it, all the time keeping their blood pressure in check.

For most of us, it’s a lot more work than that to keep calm and be relaxed even in our normal, day-to-day lives. With this in mind, we need to make an effort to try and adjust our habits to include some stress-relieving tricks and help us find a little calmer in our day.

Start The Day Off Right

Experts agree that allowing the body to wake naturally is far better for you, and less stressful, than having a jarring alarm interrupt your beauty sleep. Of course, that’s the ideal, but when there is a job to get to, and a family to get fed and out of the door, it’s just not practical.

As a compromise, try and see if you can have at least one day a week when you can turn off the alarm and let the daylight gradually wake you. Just one day a week will give your body a break from the routine.

Take A Deep Breath

Various studies have been done on how important it is to breathe ‘right’, so once you’re up, open a window and take a good few, deep breaths.

Don’t worry if it’s raining or snowing, or if the sun’s beaming down. The weather doesn’t matter. It’s getting that air into your lungs that’s the important thing.

Obviously, if you live next to an overpass or similar, feel free to give this step a miss.

“Sometimes the most important thing in a whole day is the rest we take between two deep breaths”. – Etty Hillesum

Wash That Stress Right Out of Your Hair

Most of us enjoy a nice long soak in the bath, but it’s best to save that for the evening. In the morning, take a shower instead to help get the blood pumping.

Don’t listen to the doom and gloom of the early morning news while you are in there, either. Belt out a couple of upbeat songs.

Don’t worry about whether you’re in tune, or getting the words right, just let it go and release the energy.

Color Me Happy

Although there are those who proclaim that what we wear is not important and that clothes do not define us, there is another side to the story. Of course, they don’t define us, but they can be important in helping us feel good and calm and more able to face the day.

Plenty of us have an outfit that we love and that makes us feel confident and good when we wear it, but there’s more to clothes than that.

Color can play an important part too. White has associations with innocence and peace, whilst blue and green are both linked to tranquility, calmness, and balance.

Alternatively, if you want to inject a bit of optimism into your day, go for a splash of yellow.

Need to feel strong and powerful? Put on something red.

Don’t worry, you don’t have to dress in that color head to foot, just a tie, or a piece of jewelry in your happy color will all be of benefit.

Eat Right, Feel Right

Next, it’s that ‘most important meal of the day’, breakfast. There are plenty of people who skip breakfast, replacing it instead with a coffee grabbed on the way to work, but there’s a definite benefit, both physically and mentally, by making sure you get a decent start to the day, food-wise.

If you think about it, you’ve been effectively fasting all night, so it’s time to refuel your body for the day ahead. Going out on an empty stomach before taking in a big hit of caffeine isn’t going to do anything to build up that calm, relaxed state of mind you’re aiming for.

Porridge is a great start to the day as the oats not only release their energy gradually, but they’re also rich in B vitamins, which are useful in the fight against stress.

These vitamins are found in many whole grain foods, so if you don’t fancy a bowl of steaming porridge in the summer, try a bowl of muesli topped off with a fresh banana, and you’ll be setting your body up for a calm and relaxed morning.

Think Positive

Now you’re ready to head out of the door, there’s just one more thing; the power of positive thinking. Say to yourself, ‘I am calm and relaxed’. Repeat this several times. Although some studies indicate that saying this out loud is the most effective, in real life, it might not always be possible, so just take a few moments to yourself and repeat it in your head.

There’s plenty for us to stress about these days, both at home and in the world in general, but the more we can do, however small, to try to calm and prepare ourselves against these factors, the better we will feel. And the better we feel, the better those around us feel, which can only be good news.

https://addicted2success.com/life/how-to-start-your-day-relaxed/

1. Unrealized Losses on U.S. Government Bonds  Held by Bank

BARRONS-Daren Fonda

https://www.barrons.com/articles/banking-regulation-silicon-valley-first-republic-ebcfc98b?mod=past_editions

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2. Credit Suisse Has Been Imploding for a Decade but Blaming American Regional Banks Over Weekend for their Demise.

Credit Suisse has been mired in endless scandals and fines over the last 10+ years….$90B market cap to $1B and counting

https://twitter.com/charliebilello?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

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3. First Republic #14 on Biggest Bank List

Wall Street’s Biggest Banks Rescue Teetering First Republic.

Source: NYT

https://ritholtz.com/2023/03/weekend-reads-556/  Barry Ritholtz Blog

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4. $100B went into Money Markets this Week…Out of Banks??

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5. Bank Crisis Led to Huge Jump in Bond Market Volatility

The first and most important point we need to make is about bond market volatility.  Regional banks are not the only area that have been on a wild ride since last week. The bond market has seen a historic level of volatility.

https://allstarcharts.com/volatility-rocks-bond-market/

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6. And…The Near Breakout in Gold.

Gold ETF about to break out

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7. Money Poured Back into Tech as Banks/Value Stocks Sold Off…Naz Outperforms S&P 12 Days Straight

Nasdaq 100 Steadily Outperforms-Everywhere you look these days, you can find crazy things going on with the market.  A case in point is the Nasdaq 100’s performance relative to the performance of the S&P 500.  In early afternoon trading, the Nasdaq 100 is on pace for its 12th straight day of outperforming the S&P 500.  That’s a streak that has only been exceeded two other times (July 2005 and July 2017) since 1996, and there have only been a total of six streaks where the Nasdaq 100 outperformed the S&P 500 for ten or more trading days.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/nasdaq-100-steadily-outperforms

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8. DEEP…Deep Value Stocks Give Back All Gains for the Year….-15% from 2023 Highs

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9. Only 1 in 5 Homes Considered “Affordable”

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10. The 10 most expensive U.S. states to retire in — California didn’t make the list

Cheyenne DeVon  CNBC

In addition to being home to the most expensive city to live in worldwide, New York is the least affordable U.S. state to retire in.

That’s according to WalletHub’s “2023 Best States to Retire,” which compared all 50 states across three main categories: affordability, quality of life and health care.

For the affordability metric, WalletHub used data from various agencies such as the U.S. Census Bureau and the Council for Community and Economic Research. The ranking looked at adjusted cost of living, general tax-friendliness and annual cost of in-home services, as well as other factors.

While New York ranked 10th in the quality-of-life category and 16th in health care, it came in 50th for affordability. That’s likely due to having the second-highest adjusted cost of living, behind Alaska, and the third-highest tax rate, according to WalletHub.

Even $1 million in retirement savings would cover your living costs for only about 14 years, a fraction of the 25 years or moreretirement typically lasts.

Don’t expect to find affordability across the Hudson River either: New Jersey ranks as the second most expensive state to retire in.

Here are the top 10 most expensive states to retire in, according to WalletHub:

1.                New York

2.                New Jersey

3.                Vermont

4.                Massachusetts

5.                Maryland

6.                Washington

7.                Connecticut

8.                Maine

9.                Illinois

10.            Oregon

Retirement will look different to everyone, and there are several factors to consider.

While a state’s cost of living is often important, retirees may also think about how close they’ll be to family and how easily they’ll be able to access health care and engage in social activities, Alan Castel, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, and author of “Better with Age: The Psychology of Successful Aging,” said in WalletHub’s report.

If you’ll be living on a fixed income in retirement, it’s important to regularly review your budget and future financial commitments, said Castel.

“Sometimes our spending habits need to be re-evaluated, and many senior discounts can be utilized to lower bills,” he said. “It may also be useful to consider downsizing or minimizing certain costs that are no longer needed.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/19/most-expensive-us-states-to-retire-in.html

1. Two-Year Yield Falls 120 Basis Points in 5 Trading Sessions.

www.stockcharts.com

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2. Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Rallies Above 2023 Highs

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3. Biggest Drop Since 1987 Crash

https://www.twitter.com/nickgerli1

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4. Small Domestic Banks 67% of Commercial Real Estate Loans

Torsten Slok Apollo

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5. The long-anticipated office reckoning is upon us-Axios

• Emily Peck, author of Axios Markets

Data: Moody’s Analytics; Chart: Axios Visuals

Office vacancy levels are approaching highs last seen during the savings and loan crisis in the 1980s.

Why it matters: It appears that a reckoning in the office market, widely anticipated since the start of the pandemic, is upon us.

• “We’re not ready to say that this is a cliff for the office sector. But I think right now we’re finally entering the true turbulent times,” Thomas LaSalvia, director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics, told Axios.
• Context: Vacancies refer to the share of office space that is not leased by a tenant — as opposed to leased office space that’s mostly deserted.

Zoom out: This was always going to be a slow-moving trend. Remote work drove folks home, but companies didn’t instantly give up on their office spaces. Typical leases run for at least 10 years.

• And for property owners dealing with rising vacancies, there’s a new wrinkle: They’re getting hit with rising costs thanks to higher interest rates on their floating rate debt.

State of play: At the end of last year, even Class A buildings saw a drop in occupancy, per a new report from Moody’s.

• Some office landlords are showing signs of distress, as the WSJ reported. Brookfield Asset Management last month defaulted on $750 million in debt on two 52-story office towers in Los Angeles. (It still holds hundreds of properties.)
• These properties were Class A, but faced competition from even-fancier Class A+ properties with better amenities, according to Moody’s report. Brookfield’s moves might “spur other landlords,” it says.

• Meanwhile, Columbia Property Trust recently defaulted on a $1.7 billion loan backed by seven office properties, mainly due to the rise in interest rates.
• The company took out a floating-rate loan in December 2021, according to Moody’s. It’s gone from paying around 3% on the loan to 6%.

The bottom line: Office space is a good place to start cutting back if you’re a CEO looking to batten down the hatches in a turbulent time.

• Rather than lay off workers during a time of labor shortages, companies are looking to real estate as a way to cut costs, said LaSalvia.
• “The low-hanging fruit is definitely that office space,” he said.
• 

6. Tech Stocks Rally….QQQ 50day thru 200day to upside.

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7. EFA Developed International Correct Toward 200day Support

EFA outperforming U.S. stocks…See if it holds up

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8. EUFN-Euro Financials ETF Hits Wall at Previous High

CS crisis hitting European financial stocks back down

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9. XLF Energy ETF Update …Last Year’s Big Winner

XLF closes below 200 day moving average

XLF long-term weekly chart broke 50-week after holding it 4x

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10. Are Americans Really Becoming Less Intelligent?

Why is the Flynn effect is reversing in some domains? Karen Wu Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

• The Flynn Effect, the increase in intelligence over generations, appears to be stagnating or even reversing in parts of Europe and the US.
• Researchers cross-sectionally examined the Flynn Effect in a large dataset of almost 400,000 Americans.
• Cognitive ability scores decreased in several domains related to reasoning, while increasing for visuospatial skills.
• Potential reasons were offered for these results, however, there are alternative explanations, such as the test-taking environment.

Since the early 1900s, intelligence has been increasing by approximately 3 to 5 points per decade due to many factors including better nutrition, increased access to education, and familiarity with test-taking. The increase in intelligence over generations is well-documented and has been termed the “Flynn Effect.” However, recent research in parts of Europe and the US has started to find a plateau in intelligence scores, and even a reversal of the effect. For example, a recent study in the US found lower vocabulary scores in newer cohorts. Shockingly, US college graduates in the 2010s had lower vocabulary scores than their counterparts in the 1970s. Thus, to comprehensively test for the Flynn effect in recent years, Dworak et al. (2023) conducted a pre-registered study of almost 400,000 American adults between 2006-2018.

The researchers gathered cross-sectional data through the Synthetic Aperture Personality Assessment Project, which was advertised online as a personality test. They measured several domains of cognitive ability, including matrix reasoning (non-verbal reasoning), letter and number series (computational-mathematical reasoning), verbal reasoning, and 3D rotation (visuospatial skills).

Results indicated a reversal of the Flynn Effect for composite scores of cognitive ability, matrix reasoning, and letter and number series when participants were grouped by age, education, and gender. In other words, there was a downward trend in these domains of cognitive ability over generations. Yet, performance on 3D rotations increased over time. The greatest differences were within groups of 18- to 22-year-olds as well as those without a college degree. To explain their results, the researchers offered five main explanations:

1. The ceiling effect: Intelligence cannot grow forever and must eventually reach a plateau.

The researchers note that prior gains in intelligence were likely due to increases in nutrition, access to education, and familiarity with tests. At a certain point, these gains should plateau, as should performance on intelligence tests. In addition, while prior researchers have suggested decreases in health in recent years, poor health is unlikely to explain the patterns in this study given that 3D rotation abilities actually increased.

2. Media exposure may be responsible for lower scores.

Given the different findings by domain, media exposure might be partially responsible. However, this explanation is currently speculative, as there is little experimental research on the effects of media exposure on intelligence. In addition, no potential mechanisms for the effects of media exposure on cognitive abilities were offered by the researchers.

3. Technology may be protecting or enhancing certain aspects of cognitive performance.

Fortunately, there is a bright side to technology. The researchers propose that certain aspects of technology might explain the increase in 3D rotation abilities, which reflect visuospatial skills. Specifically, video games have been linked to greater visuospatial skills.

4. Quality of education may have decreased.

The researchers propose that education has either decreased in quality or changed in content, thus resulting in poorer non-verbal reasoning and mathematical-computational reasoning, as well as stagnation in verbal reasoning.

5. The importance of different skills may have changed.

Finally, the authors speculate that society now places more value on visuospatial abilities and less value on the various forms of reasoning skills.

Importantly, the researchers caution that cognitive ability scores may not actually be reflective of intelligence. In addition, there are several key limitations of the study. Participants self-selected into the study by finding it online, which could lead to differences in cohorts. Specifically, the authors mention that the personality test is now more popular and may thus include more “normal” people. Furthermore, since the study was advertised as a personality test, people might not have been motivated to do well on cognitive tasks.

An Alternative Explanation: The Role of Smartphones

Given the time frame of the study from 2006-2018 and the researchers’ method of data collection, I propose an alternative explanation for their results. Within that period, smartphone ownership in the US rose from an estimated 3 percent to 81 percent according to one source. The researchers do not appear to have accounted for whether participants took the test on their phones or on a computer. Given the huge increase in smartphone ownership over time, newer cohorts were much more likely to take the test on their phone, especially since they were led to believe it was a personality test. Therefore, they might have been unable to concentrate on complex questions surrounding verbal, mathematical, and non-verbal reasoning.

Meanwhile, 3D rotation tasks might not be as difficult to complete on a phone, and performance may be less affected by distractions. Furthermore, smartphones have been found to deplete our cognitive resources, so even the presence of a smartphone could be problematic when testing cognitive abilities. These explanations seem especially plausible given that 18- to 22-year-olds experienced the greatest changes in cognitive ability scores. Compared to older adults, this group seems the most likely to own a smartphone and to have taken the test on their phones in recent years. Hopefully, subsequent iterations of this study will shed light on the potential role of smartphones in the results.

References

Dworak, E. M., Revelle, W., & Condon, D. M. (2023). Looking for Flynn effects in a recent online US adult sample: Examining shifts within the SAPA Project. Intelligence, 98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2023.101734

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-modern-heart/202303/are-americans-really-becoming-less-intelligent

 

1. Credit Default Swaps on Big Banks Barely Budging

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Despite regional bank turmoil, credit-default swap spreads on big banks are barely budging, WSJ notes.

2. Two-Year Treasury Yield Falls 100 Basis Points in Three Days

Fed Fund Futures Pricing in 4% Down from 5.40% for Two-Year

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y

3. History of 2-Year Yield Collapses

Irrelevant Investor Blog Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse will make all the headlines, but what happened in the bond market deserves a lot of attention. The 2-year yield collapsed over the last two days to an extent only seen around historical events (h/t Jim Bianco). Since 1990, the only other times we saw a decline of this magnitude was after the 9/11 attack, when Lehman Failed, when the TARP vote failed, and this week, when SVB failed

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/03/11/a-reverse-minsky-moment/

4. The Rise.and Fall of One-Year Deposits at U.S. Banks

By: Eddie Duszlak Verdad Research

The failure of Silicon Valley Bank – and the crisis facing the banking industry today – started with COVID. After the U.S. government launched its stimulus program in response to COVID in 2020, the 1-year growth in deposits at U.S. banks increased at an unprecedented rate. The chart below shows just what an outlier this represented in the context of the last forty years.

Figure 1: 1-Year Growth in Deposits at FDIC-Insured Banks

Source: FDIC. Data is as of December 31, 2022.

Typically, deposits and loans have historically tracked each other quite closely. The lines in the chart below are almost indistinguishable through 2008, after which they diverge. At the risk of oversimplifying, loan demand in the U.S. weakened after the 2008 crisis, and banks increased securities portfolios as a result. This growth in securities portfolios saw another acceleration in 2020 and 2021, as deposit growth spiked. Prior to this recent outlier period, it is noteworthy how little the slope of the lines varied over forty years.

Figure 2: Deposits and Total Loans & Leases

Source: FDIC. Values are in millions of USD. Data is as of December 31, 2022.

https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/bank-run?e=b838bc224f Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

5. Will Credit Suisse Pull Off Restructuring Post SVB Crisis?

Bloomberg Marion Halftermeyer Credit Suisse Group AG said it found “material weaknesses” in its reporting and control procedures for the past two years, after questions from US regulators last week.

The Zurich-based bank said Tuesday it will take steps to fix ineffective checks on the process it follows to pull together its financial reports. But the firm said its statements for 2022 and 2021 “fairly present” its financial condition.

Credit Suisse was forced to delay the release of its annual report from last week after the Securities and Exchange Commission raised last-minute queries on cash-flow statements from 2019 and 2020, discussions which the bank said have now been concluded. Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner is attempting to push through a complex restructuring in a bid to return the bank to profitability, a process now at risk of becoming bogged down in a broader financial-sector selloff linked to US lender Silicon Valley Bank.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-14/credit-suisse-finds-material-weakness-in-financial-reporting?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

The collapse of Credit Suisse

www.stockcharts.com

6. Contraction of Money Supply Leads to Bank Crisis

https://twitter.com/nickgerli1

7. Schwab -45% from Highs

Schwab stock hit $30 at bottom of Covid crisis

8. Rates Falling will Help this Chart….Highest Mortgage Payments for First Time Home Buyers in Modern History

Gundlach Double Line

9. China has Low Profit Margin Businesses

Figure 3: Average Profit Margin by Country (2022)

https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/fortune-favors-state-owned-three-years-chinese-dominance-global-500-list

10. 1990-2018-Murders in NYC -80%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_New_York_City

1. Banks Assets $2 Trillion 2008 vs. $8 Trillion 2023

Jack Ablin Cresset Meanwhile, the stockpile of assets held at US banks over the FDIC’s $250,000 guarantee limit has mushroomed to nearly $8 trillion – up from a bit over $2 trillion during the financial crisis.

Any deposits under $250k are not on this list

https://cressetcapital.com/post/the-perils-of-skinny-dipping-at-ebb-tide/

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2. LPL Research Analysis of Banks

https://lplresearch.com/2023/03/13/dissecting-recent-bank-failures/

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3. Banks Net Interest Margins

What is meant by net interest income?

What is ‘Net interest income (NII)’ Definition: Net interest income (NII) is the difference between the interest income a bank earns from its lending activities and the interest it pays to depositors. Net interest income = Interest earned – interest paid.

Grid from @ecommerceshares

https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares

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4. Bond Volatility Surges to Highest Level Since 2008

https://twitter.com/TaviCosta

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5. Signature Bank 12% of New York City Commercial Real Estate Lending

Trepp Matt Anderson & Stephen Buschbom

“Commercial loans (including commercial and industrial loans and loans to commercial borrowers that are secured by real estate) constitute a substantial portion of our loan portfolio. Substantially all of the real estate collateral for the loans in our portfolio is located within the New York metropolitan area.” 

https://www.trepp.com/trepptalk/digging-into-new-york-commercial-real-estate-exposure-after-signature-bank-closure

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6. Cathie Wood ARKK ETF had Massive Inflows this Week….Investors Piled into Growth Stocks as Rates Came Down.

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders

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7. Crypto Saw Massive Trading Action

WSJ Highest Crypto Turnover Since FTX Collapse

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-03-14-2023-cpi-report-inflation-svb/card/crypto-volumes-hit-highest-level-since-ftx-collapse-s31RdBYbziP9VTJmv2UP

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8. Europe Adjusted Fast…Natural Gas Consumption Drops by a Record

ZERO HEDGE BLOG Natural gas consumption in OECD Europe fell by an estimated 13% in 2022, its steepest decline in absolute terms in history, IEA said in its quarterly gas report at the end of February. Demand in Europe fell amid mild winter weather and demand reduction in industry due to high prices. 

Significant changes in the energy mix, economic activity, weather, and consumer behavior were responsible for the dramatic shift in natural gas consumptionin Europe last year, IEA’s analysts Peter Zeniewski, Gergely Molnar, and Paul Hugues wrote in the commentary.

Record additions of solar and wind power helped lower gas demand, but record-high gas prices in the summer of 2022 also led to a lot of industry curtailments and lower consumption by industries and businesses, according to the IEA.

Yet, the extent to which the high prices will lead to permanent reductions in demand in gas-intensive industrial sectors remains unclear,the IEA’s analysts say.   

In Europe’s industry, gas use fell by 25 bcm, or around 25%, in 2022, due to production curtailment and fuel switching, as the energy-intensive industries were the first to respond to the gas price shocks last year, the IEA said.

In household consumption, “Policy measures – such as renewable support schemes, grants and preferential loans for housing retrofits and heat pump installations, alongside campaigns to encourage behavioural change – all played a part in moderating gas demand,” according to the analysts.

The European Union managed to beat its target for cutting gas demand this winter, Eurostat data showed last month.

According to the data, the EU’s winter demand has so far dropped by 19.3% compared to the five-year average, beating the 15% goal it set for itself to help it survive the winter without gas shortages.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/four-reasons-europes-record-breaking-drop-natural-gas-demand

Natural Gas Broke Below 2020 Lows

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9. Gold Watch

GLD watch list for run at highs

www.stockcharts.com

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10. Can’t Overcome the Navy SEAL 40 Percent Rule? Embrace the Mindset of High Achievers

We tend to quit when the effort is massive and the timeline indefinite. That’s why successful people embrace a different approach to making progress.

BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@JEFF_HADEN

Sometimes starting a successful business is a lot like exercise.

For example, imagine I put you on an exercise bike and ask you to pedal as hard as you can for five seconds so we can measure the power you generate. Then, after a short break, I ask you to ride until you run out of steam so we can measure your endurance. 

If you’re like the average person in the actual study published in PLoS One, you last about 12 minutes.

Box CEO Aaron Levie on the Biggest Factors That Will Shape Softwar 

Then I ask you to immediately repeat the five second, all-out-effort power test.

You’re crazy, you think. You’re whipped. Pedal more? No way. You stopped because you can’t pedal any more.

Although it turns out you can: If you’re like the average person in the actual study, you produce three times more power than you did during the endurance test.

So why did you give up because you couldn’t pedal any more, yet somehow crank out substantial power seconds later? Clearly your muscles weren’t as exhausted, and your energy as depleted, as you thought. 

The 40 Percent Rule

That finding provides research-based proof of the 40 percent rule, a concept popularized by Dave Goggins in Jesse Itzler’s book Living With a Seal. 

The 40 percent rule is simple. When your mind tells you that you’re exhausted, fried, and totally tapped out, you’re really only 40 percent done: You still have 60 percent left in your tank. 

So why do you (we) stop? In part, the problem lies with motivation: It’s hard to keep going indefinitely when your heart is pounding and legs are screaming.

Another problem lies in the word indefinitely.

Even if you think you’re exhausted, cranking out another five seconds is (relatively) nothing. The endurance test is a different beast. Stuck on a bike, hamster-wheeling away, heart pounding and legs screaming, and not knowing how long all that pain will last? That’s physically and mentally draining, a combination that makes it much harder to keep pushing past what you perceive as your limit. 

The same is true for starting a business.

Turn ‘As Long as You Can’ …

Launching a business is hard. Bootstrapping your way through a constant — at some point, they inevitably feel endless — series of challenges, and setbacks, and difficult decisions, and long nights and longer weekends doesn’t require just physical effort.

The mental effort required is just as extreme — especially since you have no idea when you will finally turn the corner and the struggle will, if not end, at least ease.

That’s why many entrepreneurs quit. When today is hard, and you know tomorrow will be hard, and you have no idea how many more tomorrows you will ultimately have to endure.

Yeah: It’s incredibly hard to keep going — even though you still have 60 percent remaining in your stay-the-course tank.

So what can you do?

… Into ‘Five Seconds’

Turn “indefinitely” into your own version of “five-second” bursts.

Instead of thinking in terms of an endless number of cold calls, set a target for each day. Make five. Or 10. Or 20. Whatever your plan calls for. That way you take your mind off tomorrow, and can just focus on today — and can focus on making each call to the best of your ability. 

Instead of thinking in terms of an endless number of pitch meetings, set a target for each week. Five. Ten. Whatever your plan calls for. That way you can take your mind off next week — and can focus on delivering each pitch to the best of your ability.

When “indefinitely” is the time window, it’s natural to ease up, even if slightly. To pace yourself. To give less than your all.

To our bodies, and minds, that’s Survival 101. We’re wired that way.

But when “all” you have to do is do the best you can for a finite period of time, or one task at a time, then it’s much easier to find the energy and focus you need to be at your best.

Being at your best? That will get you to whatever your finish line might be a lot faster. 

Because doing your best, each and every time, is the best way to bring “indefinitely” to an end.

https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/success-persistence-seal-40-percent-rule-high-achiever-mindset.html