1. Nov.1 Starts the “Good” 6 Months Based on Seasonality.

Market Seasonality Notes:

• Since October 31st, 2000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over +68.19%. However, the seasonally weak periods during those years are cumulatively down -15.89%, while the seasonally strong periods have produced cumulative gains of 100.25%!
• During the May to October periods, there are 27 out of 67 years that finished down in this study, while there were only fourteen down years out of the other six months and only three in the last 30 years.
• There have been only three times when the “good six months” have lost more than -10% (1969, 1973 and 2008), but with respect to the “bad six month” time period there have been eleven losing efforts of -10%, or more.
• There have been fourteen instances since 1980 where the “good six months” have posted a double digit return while five of those returned more than 20%.
• Interestingly enough, following those times when the “bad six months” did produce double digit losses, the “good six month” period afterward lost more than 1% only once (2008) and on four occasions actually posted double-digit positive returns.
• Beginning in November 2009, the Dow began a streak of four consecutive double-digit efforts during the strong six-month periods, the second longest such streak in history.
• Again, this study is not the end-all for risk management, but it is very interesting and does expose a bias within the market that many investors are not aware of.

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