Topley’s Top Ten – December 7, 2017

1. It’s Not Over, but the Fat Lady is Stretching in the Warm up Room

It’s the end of the world as we know it
It’s the end of the world as we know it
It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine

REM “IT’S THE END OF THE WORLD”

Key Takeaways

  • Professional managers feel pressure to increase risk in order to produce outsized returns in a one-way market that seems to go only up.
  • There is still some steam left in this bull market, but a downturn will eventually occur when earnings are exhausted.
  • Tech will not be immune to the downturn.
  • The good news is that we will face a good-old fashioned correction—not a crisis—and we always come out of recessions stronger than before.

Read Full Story
https://matttopley.com/end-world-know/

2.Tech vs. 1999 Not Close…More Concentrated in FANG?

Equity Markets: Here is why analysts don’t think there is a bubble in tech shares.

Source: Credit Suisse

3.Internet Stocks Pullback

“The Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN) has found continued support at its 50-day Moving Average throughout 2017. And, low and behold, this is where we currently find the ETF as of Tuesday, with traders stepping in to buy shares intraday as the 50-day MA is tested.”

From Dave Lutz at Jones.

4.Best Performing Stocks Take a Hit the Last 2 Weeks.

Leaders Become Laggards — Updated YTD Winners

Dec 6, 2017

Below is a quick look at S&P 500 sector performance so far in 2017.  As shown, even after a pullback over the last week or so, Technology is still up double the S&P 500 with a gain of 34.2%.  The next best sector is Financials with a gain of 19.1%, followed by Health Care (18.8%), Consumer Discretionary (18.5%), and Materials (18.4%).  Telecom and Energy are both down 8%+ on the year.

Best performers pullback last 2 weeks.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/

5.The Implosion of Battery Pack Prices…Down 80% Since 2010

The battery pack is the costliest part of an electric car, but the price has fallen 80% since 2010

ElectrifyingAverage price for electric-vehicle battery packsTHE WALL STREET JOURNALSource: McKinsey

By Jacky Wong

Lower battery costs will help electric vehicles go mainstream—but not before the leading battery makers feel the pain.

Though the battery pack remains the single costliest part of an electric car, the price has fallen 80% since 2010, to $227 a kilowatt-hour, according to McKinsey. Tesla claims an even-lower $190, and the price could fall further as the company ramps up production at its $5 billion Nevada factory.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hard-to-invest-in-batteries-when-prices-keep-plummeting-1512385602?tesla=y

 

6.Market Pricing in 3 Fed Rate Hikes

The market has in the past few months started re-pricing the Fed without any negative consequences for equities or positive consequences for the dollar, see chart below. Currently, the market thinks there is a 60% chance the Fed will hike three times by the end of 2018. We think they will hike five times, once next week and four times in 2018, see also here.

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Let us know if you would like to add a colleague to this distribution list.

Torsten Sløk, Ph.D.
Chief International Economist
Managing Director
Deutsche Bank Securities
60 Wall Street
New York, New York 10005
Tel: 212 250 2155

 7.Jobs Dominated by the Under 35 Set.

The under-35 set has a powerful presence in a diverse range of careers

These stats speak for themselves.

Statistician is the job with the highest rate of millennials in America, according to data released Wednesday by personal finance site SmartAsset. Nearly 45% of the 74,000 statisticians in this country are between the ages of 25 and 34, the study, which analyzed 327 occupations of at least 50,000 people using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, found.

This may be thanks, in part, to the tech savvy of millennials, as statisticians today often deal in big data and new technology, the report reveals. (And props to millennials working in this field: Average pay is more than $71,000 a year, with many workers earning six figures, according to PayScale; job growth through 2024 is 33%.).

Here is the full list of the jobs with the highest rate of millennials.

10 most popular jobs for millennials
Percentage of total workers who are ages 25-34

Statisticians45%
Bartenders42%
Financial analysts41%
Advertising and promotions managers40%
Emergency medical techs and paramedics39%
Physician assistants38%
Web developers38%
Market research analysts and marketing specialists37%
TV, video and motion picture camera operators and editors37%
Firefighters36%

https://moneyish.com/ish/we-bet-you-cant-guess-what-the-no-1-most-millennial-dominated-job-in-america-is/?mod=mktw

8. Republicans just received 2 alarming reviews of their tax plan

Bob Bryan

Two new polls released Tuesday found that the GOP tax bill was deeply unpopular with the American public.

  • A Gallup poll found that 29% of Americans approved of the bill, while 56% disapproved.
  • A Quinnipiac poll found that 29% approved and 53% disapproved.

The Republican tax bill is getting dismal reviews from the American public as it moves closer to becoming law.

Two new polls released Tuesday found that the plan was deeply unpopular with most Americans, with many voters saying they believe it would not benefit them and would mostly assist wealthier people.

Gallup poll found that 29% of people surveyed approved of the GOP tax bill, named the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, while 56% disapproved.

Among Republicans, 70% approved, compared with 7% for Democrats. Independents joined Democrats in relative distaste, with 25% of those polled approving of the legislation and 56% disapproving.

And a poll from Quinnipiac University also found that 29% of those surveyed approved of the bill while 53% disapproved.

Additionally, 64% of Americans said the bill would mostly benefit wealthy people, while 24% said the middle class would see the most benefit.

The two surveys line up with several released since the start of Republicans’ tax push.

The data-journalism site FiveThirtyEight found that the current legislation was one of the least popular tax-related bills dating to 1981 — even less so than two bills that hiked taxes in the 1990s.

As of Wednesday, the bill had average ratings of 32% approval and 46% disapproval, based on polls from five organizations.

Despite the distaste for the bill among the public, Republicans have passed legislation separately through the House and Senate. A conference committee tasked with coming up with a compromise bill is expected to kick off later this week, with a goal of getting that bill to President Donald Trump’s desk by Christmas.

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-reform-bill-polls-gallup-quinnipiac-text-gop-2017-12

9.2017 was the year digital ad spending finally beat TV

You knew it was coming.

By Peter Kafka and Rani Molla Dec 4, 2017, 1:46pm EST

We’ve been headed here for a while. But this was the year it actually happened: Advertisers spent more on digital than traditional TV.

To be specific: Digital ad spending reached $209 billion worldwide — 41 percent of the market — in 2017, while TV brought in $178 billion — 35 percent of the market — in 2017. That’s according to Magna, the research arm of media buying firm IPG Mediabrands.

Bear in mind that this isn’t because TV ads are cratering — TV ad spending is still flat or slowly growing, depending on the year. And in most cases big TV advertisers have yet to move much of their budget over to digital, even though Facebook and Google are working hard to make that happen.

But you can expect that gap to keep growing: Next year, Magna expects digital ad spending to grow by 13 percent to $237 billion, while TV ads will grow 2.5 percent to $183 billion, thanks in part to one-off events like the Olympics and the U.S. mid-term elections.

By 2020, Magna expects digital ads to make up 50 percent of all ad spending.

https://www.recode.net/2017/12/4/16733460/2017-digital-ad-spend-advertising-beat-tv

10. Five Bad Habits That Will Keep You From Getting Ahead

Dear Reggie,

You’re depending on me?

I’m not sure that’s a great plan. The only CEOs who want my advice are the ones who already know they have problems. If Forrest isn’t bothered by his cousin’s working style, why would he care what you or I think?

Your situation will not improve until you rise out of victim mode and see your part in reaching your unhappy state.

You are the director and star of your movie. Why would you stick around in a dead-end job for four years? You are not rooted in place. You can kiss your boss and his cousin goodbye at any moment and step into a situation that works better for you.

Can you see what’s holding you back? It’s fear. We all feel fear, but we hate to talk about it. We love to complain about other people — for instance, Forrest and his cousin. Complaining about our unhappy lot is the most impotent and mojo-depleting thing we can do, but we do it anyway.

We complain to our friends, our pets and whoever will listen to us — instead of stepping through our fear to get what we need.

Here are five bad habits that could keep you from having the life and career you deserve.

Don’t feel bad if you see yourself in some of these descriptions. We all fall victim to bad habits at times. The key is to pay attention, and begin to notice when we fall into fear.

When we know we’re feeling fearful, we can ask the people around us for support in addressing our fears — rather than asking them to reinforce our fears by saying “There, there, poor darling — it’s not your fault.”

What does fault have to do with anything?

If you work for a lousy boss, it’s not your fault that you took the job but every minute you remain in it, passive and sulky, more of your power seeps away into the floorboards.

That’s a tragedy, because sticking around to complain about your job only hurts you and no one else. It doesn’t affect your boss in the slightest.

Five Bad Habits That Will Keep You From Getting Ahead

  1. Ignoring your trusty gut when it’s trying to tell you something, like “This job is no good for you!”
  2. Blaming your unhappiness on people around you  — like your boss. Your boss is not responsible for your happiness. You are the only person who knows what you need and want in your life — and the only person who can arrange your life to suit those needs and wants.
  3. Staying in a bad job for the wrong reasons, like “It’s hard to find a new job” or “I’m too old to make a change now.”
  4. Feeling angry, hurt or mistreated at work but staying silent. It  is scary to speak up but doing so changes the energy in a positive way. It takes courage to speak — but everything important and worth doing in life requires courage! You only have to step through the invisible (but powerful) force field of fear to become more powerful. Maybe your boss showed up in your life to teach you that lesson.
  5. Looking to other other people to fight your battles for you. Every hero has to fight their own battles — that’s what makes them heroes!

I think you wrote to me because in your gut of guts, you knew I was going to tell you to rise to the occasion and start looking for a new job. A new year is coming. There’s no reason to give Forrest and his cousin another year of your life. You deserve better.

Get your resume together and start looking beyond your current-workplace walls. The world is big. Nobody can hold you back once you feel your power coursing in your veins!

All the best,

Liz

Liz Ryan is CEO/founder of Human Workplace and author of Reinvention Roadmap. Follow her on Twitter and read Forbes columns. Liz’s book Reinvention Roadmap is here.