1.Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Hits $1 Trillion….A Little Larger Than New Mexico.

From
www.abnormalreturns.com

Map of Norway in relation to the United States

When I posted the map of Norway a few days ago, Annie made a comment saying that she didn’t really know the scale of the country and that it was interesting to compare it with its neighbors. When reading that, my very technologically advanced boyfriend said he could make a graphic superimposing Norway atop a map of the US, to see the size in comparison. And here it is! As you can see, it is a long and narrow country, almost as long as the US East Coast. On the West Coast, it would cover the distance from San Diego to Seattle. Enjoy:

Graphic: JY

A few facts:

• Norway has 4.7 million inhabitants
• The country is slightly larger than the US state New Mexico
• It borders Sweden, Finland, and Russia
• The four biggest cities are Oslo (the capital), Bergen, Stavanger and Trondheim. They are the only cities with more than 100,000 people.
• Oslo has 573,388 inhabitants

http://www.slowtrav.com/blog/chiocciola/2009/02/map_of_norway_in_relation_to_t.html

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1.Global Private Equity Sitting on $1.5 Trillion in Cash…Up 50% Since 2012

Preqin noted in its 2017 annual report that 48% of institutional investors plan to increase allocations to private equity.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/big-ipo-gain-dont-bet-on-it-1505529036

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-08/why-private-equity-is-betting-on-your-online-shopping-addiction

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1.Start with Another Gundlach Chart…Equities vs. Commodities.

www.businessinsider.com

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1. Longest Rally Since…

Sep 11, 2017

Back in late July we published a Chart of the Day looking at the current rally and how it ranks in terms of length without a significant pullback of any kind.  With the S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high today, it has now been 3,108 calendar days since the last 20% decline (the standard bull/bear market distinction).  As shown in the table below of the longest bull markets on record, the current bull is the second longest behind the 4,494 days that passed between December 1987 and March 2000 without a 20%+ pullback.

Today’s close was also a big deal in terms of gains for the current bull market.  As shown, the S&P’s gain of 267.61% makes this the second strongest bull market on record as well.

It has also been a long time since the S&P 500 had a 10% correction.  As shown, the current streak of 578 days since the last 10%+ correction is the 11th longest on record going back to 1928.

Not only have we not had a 10% correction in more than 18 months, but we also haven’t even had a 5%+ correction since last June.  The 441-day streak without a 5%+ correction is the sixth longest on record for the S&P 500.

And finally, it has now been 311 days since the S&P 500 last experienced just a 3% pullback.  As shown below, this is the 2nd longest streak of all-time without a 3%+ pullback.

To break this record, we’ll need to go another 59 days without declining 3% from today’s close.

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https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/

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1.Tipping Point for Fed Funds Rate???

 Wells Fargo comments in Barrons

Looking back over six decades, the Wells Fargo team found that the tipping point came when the fed-funds rate exceeded the 10-year Treasury yield’s cyclical low. This has predicted every recession since 1955, with an average lead time of 17 months—producing a significantly earlier warning signal than waiting for the yield curve actually to invert.

What about the current cycle? The 10-year Treasury’s low yield was 1.36%, touched on July 5, 2016. An increase in the fed-funds rate to 1.5%, which the Wells Fargo economists expect at the December FOMC meeting, would trigger the recession early-warning signal. Specifically, their research puts a 69.2% probability of a downturn within 17 months after that.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-and-the-art-of-the-deficit-1504932418

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