Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 29, 2025

1. Alibaba releases AI model it claims surpasses DeepSeek-V3

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese tech company Alibaba (BABA) on Wednesday released a new version of its Qwen 2.5 artificial intelligence model that it claimed surpassed the highly-acclaimed DeepSeek-V3.

The unusual timing of the Qwen 2.5-Max’s release, on the first day of the Lunar New Year when most Chinese people are off work and with their families, points to the pressure Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s meteoric rise in the past three weeks has placed on not just overseas rivals, but also its domestic competition.

StockCharts


2. ASML Good Number Last Night

ASML hit $1110 at high…-40% correction before bounce.

StockCharts


3. Semiconductor ETF …Trading Around 200-Day for 6 Months

StockCharts


4. Diamonds vs. Gold

Isabelnet


5. Average Fed Rate by Decade

Semafor


6. Trade Policy Uncertainty…No Shock Here

The Irrelevant Investor


7. Betting Markets 77% Chance of Canadian Tariffs

Torston Slok Apollo-Betting markets are telling us something about consensus expectations for the coming months. We can then begin to discuss the macroeconomic consequences.

Polymarket


8. Strategic Mineral Supply Chain….Not Many American Flags on Map

Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog


9. Inventory of New Construction Homes for Sale

Wolf Street


10. How Sleep Helps the Brain Build Learning Maps

KEY POINTS

  • Sleep hygiene fuels neuroplasticity, and quality sleep consolidates new experiences.
  • Myelination solidifies learning ensuring neural pathways become faster and more efficient.
  • The formation of habits is influenced by the intentions that guide our behaviors

Via Psychology Today: Our brains have an extraordinary ability to adapt and learn, a process known as neuroplasticity. From navigating a new city to mastering a new skill, neuroplasticity allows us to reshape our neural connections in response to experiences. But this process doesn’t work in isolation, and one key ingredient it requires is good sleep hygiene.

Sleep plays a pivotal role in refining the brain’s ability to form and solidify cognitive maps—mental representations of the spaces and connections around us. Recent research has revealed how the brain connects discrete memories into a cohesive map during rest, showcasing the critical interplay between neuroplasticity and sleep.

Neuroplasticity involves several stages, starting with the formation of new neural connections, followed by the strengthening of those connections. A critical part of this process is myelination, in which the myelin sheath—a protective coating around nerve fibers—thickens to improve the speed and efficiency of neural signals. This process ensures that the new pathways become permanent and robust, enabling long-term learning and adaptability.

The Power of Cognitive Maps

When you explore a new city, your brain initially remembers specific locations, like a cozy café or a bustling market. These isolated memories are stored in specialized neurons called place cells in the hippocampus. Over time, weaker neurons, known as weakly spatial cells, act as bridges, connecting these memories into a mental map.

During sleep, these connections are refined, allowing your brain to link locations and form a cohesive geography. For example, Sarah, a student navigating her university campus, initially found it overwhelming to locate her classes. However, after a week of exploration and restful sleep, she could effortlessly guide a friend from the library to the cafeteria, thanks to the cognitive map her brain constructed.

Sleep: The Catalyst for Memory and Learning

Research highlights how sleep consolidates learning by replaying experiences in the brain. This replay refines neural connections, making them more precise and efficient. Mohammed, an engineer preparing for an exam, experienced this firsthand. After implementing a strict sleep hygiene routine, he found that reviewing his notes before bed helped him recall critical information effortlessly the next day. Sleep provided his brain with the opportunity to strengthen the pathways needed for retention.

Neuroplasticity isn’t just about remembering spaces; it’s also crucial for forming habits. Jasmine, a professional striving to establish a morning exercise routine, struggled to make it stick. However, when she prioritized consistent sleep, her brain began reinforcing the habit through plastic changes during rest. Over time, waking up for her workout became second nature, demonstrating how sleep transforms intentions into automated behaviors.

The Science of Latent Learning

A recent study from MIT’s Picower Institute showed that sleep allows the brain to encode meaningful maps of space. When mice explored mazes without rewards, their brains initially registered individual locations. But after several days of exploration combined with sleep, weakly spatial cells stitched these discrete memories into a cohesive cognitive map. The role of sleep hygiene is further explored by Leah Irish, et al (2014) in a review of empirical evidence.

The role of latent learning—learning that occurs without immediate rewards—relies heavily on sleep-dependent neuroplasticity. Interestingly, mice deprived of sleep failed to form these maps, highlighting the irreplaceable role of rest in learning. Sleep enables the brain to organize and refine information, creating a foundation for navigation, planning, and problem-solving.

The Role of Myelination in Learning

One of the most fascinating aspects of neuroplasticity is myelination, the process of strengthening neural pathways. As we repeatedly use a new connection—remembering a route, mastering a skill, or building a habit—myelination thickens the protective sheath around neurons, ensuring faster and more reliable communication. This crucial process is impaired by insufficient sleep, leaving new learning fragile and incomplete.

Neuroplasticity in Everyday Life

Neuroplasticity and sleep intersect in countless aspects of daily life, from learning and memory to habit formation and emotional regulation. Here’s how you can leverage this connection:

  1. Prioritize Sleep. Aim for 7-9 hours of quality sleep each night to ensure your brain has time to consolidate and refine new learning.
  2. Engage in Exploration. Allow yourself to explore new environments and ideas without immediate goals or rewards. Trust that your brain will make sense of the experiences during rest.
  3. Repeat and Rest. Repetition strengthens neural pathways, but sleep is what solidifies them. Alternate periods of focused practice with restorative sleep for optimal results

Conclusion

Our brains adapt and learn, which allows us to reshape our neural connections in response to experiences. But this process requires sleep hygiene. The brain’s ability to adapt and grow is a testament to its resilience and complexity. Whether it’s finding your way, mastering your studies, or establishing healthy habits, neuroplasticity and sleep work hand in hand to help us navigate life’s challenges.

Rest isn’t a luxury; it’s a necessity. Sleep fuels the brain’s ability to create, refine, and maintain the connections that define us and what we can achieve. Let’s sleep better to shape mental maps, build habits, and drive our potential to new heights.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 28, 2025

1. NVDA Closes Below 200-Day Moving Average

StockCharts


2. NVDA in Danger of Close Below 50-Week Moving Average First Time in 2 Years

StockCharts.com


3. NVDA One-Day Snapshot

Charlie Bilello


4. AI Infrastructure Stocks

Although AI stocks are down broadly today, it is the Infrastructure basket that has been hit the hardest. With DeepSeek’s supposed low-cost to build its latest ChatGPT-like offering, it has brought into question the necessity for massive capex spend on chips and datacenters, and our AI Infrastructure sub-basket is down an incredible 8.2% on the day as a result! That compares to only a 1.5% decline in our Implementation sub-basket. As shown below, since the start of our AI Baskets a little over two years ago, this is easily the worst day for our Infrastructure basket relative to our Implementation basket to date, and it isn’t even close.

Bespoke Investment Group


5. CEG Constellation Energy -20% One Day…Still +13% YTD


6. German Stock Market DAX New Highs…Beating QQQ by 10% YTD

StockCharts


7. Earnings Growth by Sector: Financials Lead

Nasdaq


8. SpaceX Share Price

Daily Shot


9. Sports Betting Boom

Chartr


10. Farnam Street on “Leverage”

Leverage is the force multiplier of the world, the principle that allows the small to move the large and the few to influence the many. It’s the idea that a little force, strategically applied, can yield outsize outputs.

At its core, leverage is amplification. Think of a crowbar prying two boards apart or a pulley system hoisting a heavy load. In each case, the applied force is multiplied. But leverage isn’t just useful in physics. Rather, it’s a principle that applies across our lives.

Leverage is often lurking in the background of nonlinear outcomes. Consider the author who took the ideas in their head, put them in a book, and sold millions of copies, or the Wall Street investor who made a single decision that resulted in billions. Or even the CEO who directs the people working for them. All of these examples are leverage in action.

In personal development, leverage is about identifying the key habits, skills, and relationships that will impact your life and work most. It’s about focusing your energy on the critical few rather than the trivial many, about finding the points of maximum leverage where small changes can cascade into massive results.

An example of personal leverage is an employee who learns to use AI to amplify their impact on the organization far beyond their experience or effort. While labor is still a form of leverage, it can often be done with silicon chips. In this sense, the person who can leverage technology can compete in a way never imaginable.

However, leverage is not without its risks and responsibilities. Just as a small action can have an outsized positive impact, so can it have negative consequences. If you borrow too much money against your house and it turns out to be less valuable than assumed or interest rates change, the downside of leverage can quickly wipe you out.

Good ideas taken too far often cause unanticipated consequences. Wielding leverage to maximum effect all the time, as the West Virginia mine owners did, sows the seeds of ongoing unrest that undermines one’s ability to be truly effective. No one wants to feel exploited, and those who are never give their loyalty or their best work.

The key is to use leverage wisely and judiciously by understanding the systems you want to influence and considering the second- and third-­ order effects of your actions.

Leverage is a tool, not a toy, and like any tool, it requires skill, judgment, and respect.

Source: The Great Mental Models v2: Physics, Chemistry, and Biology

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 27, 2025

1. What is DeepSeek?

LSEG


2. META Capex Bigger than 70% of the S&P Combined

Nice: Meta’s capex this year will be bigger than the market caps of 69% of the S&P 50.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company is planning to build a truly massive data center to furnish its AI ambitions — and it’s going to cost a pretty penny. He estimates that the social media company’s capital expenditures will rise to $60 billion or $65 billion this year. That’s about 70% higher than analyst estimates for 2024’s full-year capex, which itself was a 40% jump from a year earlier. It’s also more than what Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft spent combined last quarter.

It’s also a bigger number than the market caps of 343 companies in the S&P 500. (Yes, we did the math. Yes, it’s really 69%.)

Sherwood


3. FCF Margins of Big 10 Stocks

From Ben Carlson: JP Morgan’s Michael Cembalest shared the following chart in a recent piece that shows how unique today’s top 10 companies are relative to history:

A Wealth of Common Sense


4. Netflix FCF Did Not Take Off Until 2023

Finchat


5. U.S. Public Companies Foreign Share of Revenues

Citigroup


6. Insider Selling Highest Since 1988

Dave Lutz Jones Trading INSIDER SELLERS – A gauge of insider sentiment that tallies the number of buyers versus sellers shows there were just 98 companies where at least one insider purchased the company’s shares this month through Jan. 22, compared with 447 at which at least one insider sold, according to data compiled by the Washington Service.

Bloomberg

With a little over a week of trading left in January, that buy-sell ratio, at 0.22, is currently on track to be the lowest in data going back to 1988, Bloomberg reported.


7. U.S. Dollar Since Inauguration

Business Insider


8. Yuan Best Week vs. Dollar in 2 Years

Daily Shot


9. Tik Tok Economic Impact on U.S.

Oxford Economics


10. Get Out of Comfort Zone

Psychology Today

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 23, 2025

1. Post Inauguration Stock Market Stats

NASDAQ


2. Corporate Bonds vs. Stocks Valuation

Reuters


3. A List of Well Known Hedge Fund Managers Calling for IPO Boom Under Trump

IPO ETF…50 week thru 200 week to upside on long-term chart.

StockCharts


4. Trump SPAC No New High Post Election

StockCharts


5. Defensive Consumer Staples New Lows

J.C. Parets


6. Canada and Mexico Since U.S. Election

Bespoke Investment Group: In the chart below, we show the relative strength lines of the country ETFs for Mexico (EWW) and Canada (EWC) versus the United States (SPY).  As shown, the two ETFs have seen relative performance drop since the election as tariff tensions have become more of a reality, but that weakness is in the context of longer-term underperformance that has been persistent throughout the past year.

Bespoke Investment Group


7. Income Required for Median Rent

Rental affordability. The income required to afford the median asking rent for a US apartment is $63,680, the lowest since early 2022. However, that’s still 16% higher than the estimated median income for renters.

Redfin


8. Opinion Poll on Our Nation’s Political System

NY Times


9. Consumer Reports Test on 300 Foods Found 86% Contained Harmful Chemicals

Mark Hyman


10. Don’t steal the revelation: Seth Godin

Learning is a journey of incompetence.
First, we realize that there’s something we don’t know.
Then we see that we’re going to be better at it, and we’re not good at it yet.
Then we figure it out and we’ve succeeded.
Repeat.
When we pre-process the information and simply test people on it, there’s no real learning going on. We become what we do, and if we actually solve the riddle, we’re more likely to have it stick than if someone simply tells us the answer.
The job of the teacher is to create the conditions for the student to explore their incompetence long enough to learn something useful.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 January 22, 2025

1. Time Spent in Recession by Decade….Last 15 Years, Almost Zero

Ben Carlson


2. Record Positive 5-Day Breath in S&P

SentimentTrader notes we had a week for the history books. The S&P 500 just strung together 5 straight days with more than 68% of its stocks advancing. That ties the record going back to 1928.

Jason Goepfert


3. Clean Energy ETF New Lows

StockCharts


4. Netflix has Record Subscriber Growth

Bloomberg


5. January Global Fund Manager Flows…Into Eurozone and Commodities?

The Daily Shot Brief


6. With Canada Entering Political Upheaval, the Canadian Dollar is Hitting Lows

Barchart


7. Apple Underperformer Yesterday

Pulls back to September 2024 levels….200-Day in play.

StockCharts


8. 20-Year Chart of Mortgage Rates

Wolf Street


9. World Citizens Reaction to Trump Presidency

The FT


10. Dive In: Cold Water Can Be Good for Your Brain-Psychology Today

Via Psychology Today: Research demonstrates the mental benefits of cold water swimming.

Key points:

  •  People have been immersing themselves in cold water for thousands of years.
  • Modern research shows that cold water immersion provides cognitive and mood benefits.
  • That may be connected with the effect of cold-water swimming on cortisol levels.

If you live near a body of water in the northern latitudes, you likely have heard of your local polar bear club — usually made up of a group of hearty swimmers who take part in cold water swimming.

Immersing in cold water dates back to ancient civilizations, with the first documented evidence appearing in an Egyptian text in 3,000 BC. Fast forward to modern times, a group of swimmers founded the first cold water swimming organization in the U.S. in 1903. Today, the Coney Island Polar Bear Club still holds weekly ocean swims from November to April.

Cold-water swimmers tout the numerous benefits of those icy dips: reduced inflammation in muscles and joints, boosted metabolism, improved sleep and enhanced libido. But what does the evidence say?

A growing body of research verifies that cold water plunges do provide benefits, particularly for mood and cognitive performance.

In a study published this year in the journal Physiology & Behavior, 13 healthy subjects submerged themselves in 10-degree Celsius water for 10 minutes, three times per week. Researchers evaluated participants’ cognitive performance, self-reported well-being, sleep quality and worry. They found participants’ cognitive processing speed and mental flexibility improved over the four weeks of the study. Participants also reported fewer sleep disturbances and scored lower on assessments of worry.

Two earlier studies back up these findings. In the first, participants reported a significant decrease in negative emotions like tension, anger, depression, fatigue and confusion after a 20-minute dip in chilly ocean water. In the second study, participants who immersed in a cold bath for five minutes reported feeling more active, alert, attentive, proud and inspired.

What’s going on here? Researchers don’t exactly know. But they have established that those good feelings likely have something to do with cold water immersion’s effect on cortisol levels.

Cortisol is a hormone released into the bloodstream when you experience stress; it prepares your body for the fight-or-flight response. If you have too much cortisol, or if your body releases it too often, it can lead to weight gain, mood swings, insomnia, and fatigue.

Researchers expected a cold-water plunge would elevate cortisol levels, but studies have found that cortisol levels remain relatively stable during cold immersion, and decrease significantly in the hours afterward. This likely explains why cold-water swimmers report improved mood and cognitive performance.

It’s important to note there are health risks associated with cold-water swimming including hypothermia, hyperventilation, and muscle cramping. It’s important never to swim in a body of open water alone, and to check with your doctor before cold immersion if you have any chronic health conditions.

That said, there is clear evidence that cold-water immersion can help boost your mood and cognitive performance, and may also help prevent sleep disturbances.