2. Traditional Yield Curve Already Inverted =Gap Between 2 Year and 10 Year Treasury….The Gap below is Arguably A Better Timing Mechanism.
FRED CHARTS –10 Year Minus 3-Month Treasury About to Invert.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
3. However Credit Spreads are Not Blowing Out.
What does it mean when credit spreads are widening?
A widening bond credit spread typically suggests worsening economic conditions and higher overall risk
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading–Stay Focused on Credit Spreads – CarsonGroup notes Various spreads continue to tighten, not blow out. A potential nice sign for both the economy and stock market.
4. Watch Small Caps …They Lead Out of Bear Markets
Small cap stocks traded down to 2008 P/E levels prior to July Rally
@Charlie BilelloFilling the Inflationary Gap US Wages increased 5.2% over the last year while consumer prices (CPI) rose 9.1% and Rents increased more than 12%.
10. Visionary Leadership-Visionary Leadership Has 3 Characteristics You Want to Find and Follow
BY SUZANNE LUCAS When you think about visionary leadership, you may think of someone like George Washington, who led a war against the British to establish a new nation, or Mahatma Gandhi, who also revolted against the British, but in a very different way. Both men saw that a new vision of governing was possible and set out to achieve it—and they did.
With this historical perspective and pressure, you may think that visionary leadership is rare and certainly not something an average person can have. But, visionary leadership doesn’t have to be world-changing. You may already have visionary leadership and not even know it.
What is Visionary Leadership?
A visionary leader is an individual who sees the potential for how the world should exist and then takes steps to get there. You can achieve visionary without a leadership role—become an idea guy, for instance. And, you can successfully lead people to accomplish a course of action, while not having a vision for the change you’d like to create.
These two abilities combined—the ability to see the potential for change combined with the ability to lead others creates a visionary leader. If you want to become a visionary leader (or work for one) here are the three main characteristics you want to actively strive to develop or find.
Risk-Taking
Change is never risk-free. And it’s rare that the solutions will come immediately. George Washington didn’t trounce the British in the first battle. Defeating the British took years. It took sacrifice, the sacrifice of many people who were committed to the vision of self-governance and freedom from English control.1
You don’t need to put your life on the line—Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos slept comfortably at night over the years—but you may need to put your livelihood on the line. Jobs was fired from his own company. Visionary leadership is all about changeand change means risk-taking.
Listening
Contrary to popular opinion, a visionary leader doesn’t just go forth ignoring all the naysayers and do what he or she thinks is best. Yes, you will find that there are a lot of naysayers that you need to ignore, but you also have to listen to what people are saying.
This makes the difference between the big idea guy and the visionary leader. If you’re not willing to listen and accept advice, look at how the market is changing, and take feedback seriously, you won’t succeed. It’s fine to say, “No, I’ve considered all of those possibilities and I’m still moving forward with my idea.” But, if you haven’t considered the other possibilities, you’re setting yourself up for failure.
A good leader hears the voices of your team members. And your team needs to feel heard by their leader. You aren’t a real leader unless people follow you voluntarily, and for that to happen, your team members need to feel heard out and listened to by you.
Takes Responsibility
A visionary leader knows that his or her ideas are different and are a significant risk and the people that follow such a leader are also taking a chance in doing so. So, it’s critical that you take responsibility for your actions and your vision.
This is not only when events go poorly—it’s also to make sure that they don’t go poorly in the first place. The leader is responsible for ensuring that the finances are available to pay people and keep the project moving forward. You must ensure that you treat people fairly.
Remember, having a vision is much like having a child. You would do anything and sacrifice everything for your child, but when you want anyone else to participate in raising that child, you have to pay them. A vision is the same: you cannot expect your team to sacrifice like you are willing to do. It’s not their vision; it’s yours.
A visionary leader can become a great force in changing the world or the industry in which they work, but this leadership and participation aren’t always necessary. Sometimes you need a leader who just keeps people enthused about staying on the same path. But, when you need change, you often need a person with a vision.
Visionaries look at the status quo and see how they can make the situation different, instead of just making the current situation better. After all, George Washington didn’t set out to make a better relationship with King George. He set out to sever that relationship. And that vision made all the difference for the United States.
2. Average S&P 500 Return Following Yield Curve Inversion
The Daily Shot Blog The average total return for the S&P 500 the year following a yield curve inversion is almost 10%. Will we witness a similar outcome?
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator remains at “0” – Max Bearish
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading.
4. Hedge Funds Using Futures to Bet Against Stocks and Bonds
@AlessioUrban
5. China’s Next Credit Crisis After Real Estate…..Lending to Distressed Countries
For China, the war implies yet another increase in the exposure of its overseas loan portfolio towards debtor countries at risk of default. China’s exposure towards distressed debtors had started its upward march as early as the mid-2010s, when Venezuela defaulted on its debts. Default risks intensified and spread geographically with the pandemic, when more and more developing economies entered distress; almost 60% of low-income countries are now in debt distress or at high risk.2 As a result, China’s state banks now hold a large amount of potentially ‘distressed’ debt. Figure 1 shows the share of China’s total credit portfolio to borrowing countries in distress, which has increased from about 5% in 2010 to 60% at present. The figure traces the share of cumulative overseas lending that has been extended to countries currently in debt distress or involved in a war.
Figure 1 Share of Chinese loan claims to borrowers in distress
Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch 08 April 2022
7. However…China IPO Market Trounces the World With Record $58 Billion Boom
Bloomberg) — From London to Hong Kong, large initial share sales have all but dried up across the world’s major financial centers this year. But the market in China is bustling with activity.
Initial public offerings on mainland exchanges have climbed to $57.8 billion so far in 2022, the largest ever for such a period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. There have been five IPOs of above $1 billion since January, and one more is on the way. That’s versus just one such sale each in New York and Hong Kong, and none in London.
China’s IPO market has defied headwinds such as rising interest rates and fears of a US recession, which have brought major equity fundraising elsewhere to a virtual standstill. Offerings in the Asian economy — whose monetary policy is diverging from the Federal Reserve — are largely geared toward local investors.
There are things a leader—particularly in times of success—can get away with. There are also things that people, generally, can get away with when no one is looking, or when we think there won’t be consequences. And yet most of us don’t do these things. We try, as best we can, to observe that Stoic virtue of temperance, of moderation.
He held incredible power. His predecessors had treated the Senate and the laws as mere formalities. They treated Rome’s treasury as their personal purse. They treated other human beings as pawns to use and abuse. Imagine the discipline and rectitude it took for Marcus (a guy who didn’t even want the job in the first place), to be so strict with himself about what he would and wouldn’t do as emperor.
Now, also imagine how frustrating he must have found it to see other leaders operate with much lower standards. They had so much less power—so far from absolute—and yet it corrupted them absolutely. They had less means…and somehow more vices.
This is a common thing. You’ve probably experienced it in your own life. It’s baffling, exasperating. You tell yourself: I would never allow myself to get away with that. Then you wonder: How can they live with themselves? But be careful: this self-righteous indignation can eat you up if you’re not fully in control of it.
Marcus had to work very hard to be strict with himself, but tolerant with others. If he hadn’t, he’d have been consumed by resentment, disappointment and despair. Not everyone was as strong as him, just as not everyone is as strong as you. Not everyone has had the training, not everyone has been enlightened to the right principles. This is why they fall short. This is why they try to get away with things. This is how they live with themselves.
All you can do is be patient and tolerant. All you can do is keep being you. All you can do is keep doing the right thing, for no other reason than it’s the right thing.
5. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Falls to Feb 2021 Lows
Sam Ro @samro The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index1 — a composite of various supply chain indicators — fell in July to its lowest level since February 2021, meaning supply chains are easing.
If you’re in the market for a house — maybe hurry to get your loan.
Driving the news: Mortgage rates are still high, but the rate on the 30-year just saw its steepest weekly drop since March 2020, and is now below 5%.
It was as high as 5.81% on June 23.
What’s up: Markets got a little cocky — believing the Federal Reserve’s steep rate hike days were waning, as Axios’ Neil Irwin wrote.
That sent Treasuries lower — and mortgages followed.
But, but, but: The respite may not last.
Mortgage rates will keep bouncing around for a while, said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. “I think we’re going to continue to be in this unsettled condition until we get a clear move downward on inflation.”
Despite the shortage of housing in the U.S., it’s been challenging for builders to quickly ramp up production to meet demand.
That’s because of a variety of factors — from navigating lumber tariffs to a shortage of labor. And with interest and mortgage rates rising, on top of inflation making building materials more expensive, homebuilder sentiment has plunged, as would-be buyers take a pause.
To illustrate the five key drivers that influence homebuilders, the National Association of Home Builders’ chief economist Robert Dietz shared a list of the “5 L’s” of homebuilding with MarketWatch.
Every single one of these factors is presenting a challenge to builders at the moment, and that in turn is putting pressures on homebuyers, renters and others caught up in America’s housing sector.
Labor
It’s tough to find construction workers. So much so that one Harvard expert said the solution to fixing the shortage was to entice more women to join the construction sector, and to reform immigration laws so more immigrants could get construction jobs, too.
The construction industry needs about 650,000 more workers on top of the normal pace of hiring to meet demand this year, according to analysis by Associated Builders and Contractors.
In 2023, the industry will need 590,000 more new workers to keep pace with demand, even after assuming construction spending growth slows.
“Labor is a bloodbath,” Brian Tucker, who owns Tucco Home Improvements in Peyton, Colorado. His company does contracting and remodeling work.
“It’s hard to find anyone who is willing to work, and even then, it’s $30 an hour,” Tucker added, “which is not feasible for hauling drywall out of homes.”
Lumber (and other materials)
Lumber prices remain elevated. They’ve been on a wild ride over the last year, hitting new highs and then plunging sharply. But overall, the increase in softwood lumber prices have added $14,345 to the price tag of the average new single-family home, the NAHB estimated in a blog post, and $5,511 to the market value of an average new apartment.
If you’re renting, your household’s paying an additional $51 a month in rent for your new apartment, thanks to lumber.
Lending
Interest rates affect homebuilders’ and developers’ borrowing costs. And with the Federal Reserve hiking rates four times since March, that’ll increase expenses for builders, on top of homeowners.
“Higher rates affect supply and demand,” Dietz said.
“The demand impact is obvious,” he added. Higher mortgage rates are pushing would-be homeowners to wait on buying a home. That’s also affecting demand, which in turn, slows homebuilders’ businesses. The average rate on the30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.3%for the week ending July 28, according to Freddie Mac.
But higher interest rates also “means the cost of builder and developer loans increase, which make it more expensive to develop land and build homes,” Dietz stressed. “People often forget this.”
Laws
Regulations— from zoning approvals to fees to labor requirements — can also add to builders’ costs. The NAHB in May estimated that regulations imposed by the government added roughly $94,000 to the final price of a new single-family home built for sale.
There’s also the issue of NIMBYism, where locals resist new development for fear of increased traffic, pollution and other concerns, which also limits where homebuilders can start new construction.
The increase in softwood lumber prices has added $14,345 to the price tag of the average new single-family home, the NAHB estimated.
The nation is short on homes. But it hasn’t always been this way, which most Americans know.
Christopher Herbert, managing director of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, recalled in an interview with MarketWatch that in 2006, homebuilders built more homes than needed.
But after the Great Recession, the regulatory environment shifted. Jurisdictions became more restrictive, and “there’s a lot more caution on the financing side,” he explained.
Lots/land
Lastly, builders need developed lots to build on, but there’s been a shortage of that. Last October, in anNAHBsurvey, 76% of builders reported that the overall supply of developed lots in their areas was low to very low, which was an all-time record.
In its July survey of builders, the group also found that 13% of builders said they were cutting home prices in June to bolster sales, or to stem the flow of cancellations.
9. Deal Book-Doing the Math on the Inflation Reduction Act
The bill involves at least $260 billion in spending over 10 years, with a focus on energy and climate, but it would raise taxes by more than that, a congressional analysis found.
How it adds up–Soon after he entered the White House, President Biden announced a $4 trillion domestic spending agenda. More than a year later, the chunk of that plan that appears most likely to pass — the result of an agreement struck last week between Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, and Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a centrist Democrat — will be considerably smaller.
The bill, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, involves at least $260 billion in spending over 10 years, but it would also raise taxes by $326 billion in the same period. That’s according to an analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation, a nonpartisan congressional commission. A separate analysis, released on Friday by the Wharton School, found that the bill would have almost no effect on G.D.P., and would slightly increase inflation for the next two years but then lead to lower prices.
Republicans have denounced the bill as a giant tax increase and a major expansion of government spending.But the new estimates suggest that it is neither of those things, reports The Times’s Jim Tankersley.
Here’s what’s in the bill (all of the figures are over 10 years, and most come from the Joint Committee’s study):
Tax credits to increase production of electricity from renewable or non-carbon sources. Cost: $98 billion.
New and expanded tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and for improving the energy efficiency of homes. Cost: $51 billion.
An incentive and tax credit for companies developing biofuels and other renewable fuels for cars and planes. Cost: $19 billion.
New and expanded subsidies to bring down the cost of buying health insurance through the Affordable Care Act. Cost: $70 billion, according to the Wharton analysis.
How it raises taxes and lowers costs:
Imposes a new federal minimum income tax of 15 percent, based on the profits that companies report to investors, not just to the I.R.S. Tax increase: $313 billion.
Closes the so-called carried interest tax loophole that allows private equity and hedge fund managers to pay lower taxes on some compensation. Tax increase: $13 billion.
Allows the government to negotiate and in some cases set prescription drug prices for people enrolled in Medicare. Estimated savings: $266 billion, according to Wharton’s analysis.
The bill would require the Interior Department to hold lease sales for oil and gas exploration in the Gulf of Mexico and the Cook Inlet in Alaska.
It expands tax credits forcarbon capture technologythat could allow coal or gas-burning power plants to keep operating with lower emissions.
Manchin also secured a promise from Democratic leaders to vote on a separate measure to speed up the permit process for energy infrastructure, potentially smoothing the way for projects like a gas pipeline in West Virginia.
“We just made a deal with Joe Manchin,” said Senator Brian Schatz, Democrat of Hawaii, who had pushed for more expansive climate provisions. “I don’t think anybody should have expected that this is the bill I would have written.”
10. Happy Birthday, Brain Pickings: 7 Things I Learned in 7 Years of Reading, Writing, and Living
BY MARIA POPOVA
Allow yourself the uncomfortable luxury of changing your mind. Cultivate that capacity for “negative capability.” We live in a culture where one of the greatest social disgraces is not having an opinion, so we often form our “opinions” based on superficial impressions or the borrowed ideas of others, without investing the time and thought that cultivating true conviction necessitates. We then go around asserting these donned opinions and clinging to them as anchors to our own reality. It’s enormously disorienting to simply say, “I don’t know.” But it’s infinitely more rewarding to understand than to be right — even if that means changing your mind about a topic, an ideology, or, above all, yourself.
Do nothing for prestige or status or money or approval alone. As Paul Graham observed, “prestige is like a powerful magnet that warps even your beliefs about what you enjoy. It causes you to work not on what you like, but what you’d like to like.” Those extrinsic motivators are fine and can feel life-affirming in the moment, but they ultimately don’t make it thrilling to get up in the morning and gratifying to go to sleep at night — and, in fact, they can often distract and detract from the things that do offer those deeper rewards.
Be generous. Be generous with your time and your resources and with giving credit and, especially, with your words. It’s so much easier to be a critic than a celebrator. Always remember there is a human being on the other end of every exchange and behind every cultural artifact being critiqued. To understand and be understood, those are among life’s greatest gifts, and every interaction is an opportunity to exchange them.
Build pockets of stillness into your life. Meditate. Go for walks. Ride your bike going nowhere in particular. There is a creative purpose to daydreaming, even toboredom. The best ideas come to us when we stop actively trying to coax the muse into manifesting and let the fragments of experience float around our unconscious mind in order to click into new combinations. Without this essential stage of unconscious processing, the entire flow of the creative process is broken.
Most importantly, sleep. Besides being the greatest creative aphrodisiac, sleep also affects our every waking moment, dictates our social rhythm, and even mediates our negative moods. Be as religious and disciplined about your sleep as you are about your work. We tend to wear our ability to get by on little sleep as some sort of badge of honor that validates our work ethic. But what it really is is a profound failure of self-respect and of priorities. What could possibly be more important than your health and your sanity, from which all else springs?
When people tell you who they are, Maya Angelou famously advised, believe them. Just as importantly, however, when people try to tell you who you are, don’t believe them. You are the only custodian of your own integrity, and the assumptions made by those that misunderstand who you are and what you stand for reveal a great deal about them and absolutely nothing about you.
Presence is far more intricate and rewarding an art than productivity. Ours is a culture that measures our worth as human beings by our efficiency, our earnings, our ability to perform this or that. The cult of productivity has its place, but worshipping at its altar daily robs us of the very capacity for joy and wonder that makes life worth living — for, as Annie Dillard memorably put it, “how we spend our days is, of course, how we spend our lives.”
“Expect anything worthwhile to take a long time.” This is borrowed from the wise and wonderful Debbie Millman, for it’s hard to better capture something so fundamental yet so impatiently overlooked in our culture of immediacy. The myth of the overnight success is just that — a myth — as well as a reminder that our present definition of success needs serious retuning. As I’ve reflected elsewhere, the flower doesn’t go from bud to blossom in one spritely burst and yet, as a culture, we’re disinterested in the tedium of the blossoming. But that’s where all the real magic unfolds in the making of one’s character and destiny.
Looking at the chart, they got it right in 2009, but patchy otherwise, mostly a contrarian bullish signal. Does go to show though the steady transition in mood as the macro backdrop got worse and worse this year.
“Retail are buying Bitcoin at the fastest rate in history,” Marcus Sotiriou, an analyst at digital asset broker GlobalBlock, wrote in a late July note.
One sign that U.S. investors are particularly crypto-hungry is the Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the difference between Bitcoin prices quoted on Coinbase Global (ticker: COIN) and those on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. Since Coinbase is mostly popular in the U.S., the gap—tracked by data firm CryptoQuant—can be read as an indicator of how crypto demand among American investors stacks uprelative to those in the rest of the world.
As recently as July 12, there was a $25 per Bitcoin discount on Coinbase compared to Binance, but as the month wore on the discount turned into a premium for the first time in months. By July 31, investors on U.S.-based Coinbase were paying a $14 per Bitcoin premium to scoop up the token, the highest premium since the crypto was changing hands around $40,000.
Other evidence supports the notion that it is primarily smaller traders who have swung in to buy Bitcoin while it has been trading at its lowest point since 2020. The total supply of Bitcoin in the largest 1% of accounts decreased to 17.32 million from 17.34 million across the month of July, according to crypto market intelligence firm Messari. By contrast, the supply of Bitcoin in accounts with more than $10,000 increased from 18.2 million to 18.4 million in July.
“The 90-day change in Bitcoin addresses with less than 1 coin (typically retail) is at record highs. The last time it was close to this high was in 2018 when Bitcoin peaked at around $20,000,” noted Sotiriou from GlobalBlock. “The fact that a similar rate of accumulation is happening now after a 70% drop demonstrates conviction from retail holders in Bitcoin’s long-term value.”
The same trend is mirrored in the crypto derivatives market, which accounts for two-thirds of exchange-traded digital asset volumes, according to CryptoCompare. In the U.S., Bitcoin futures are particularly popular among institutional investors, because these products are traded on the CME and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The CME offers two types of Bitcoin futures: A standard contract which is valued at 5 Bitcoin, or more than $115,000 at current prices; and a micro contract valued at 10% of 1 Bitcoin, or about $2,300. The former contract is more popular with institutional investors, while the latter is geared more towards a retail crowd.
JP Morgan Private Wealth–The second is that we are probably closer to the end of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle than the beginning. The Fed acknowledged this backdrop of slowing growth in its policy statement. And while its primary focus is still on getting inflation back to target, in the press conference, it hinted that the worst of the tightening cycle is probably over. Two ideas help support this view.
The first is that the Fed thinks it is close to “neutral,” or the theoretical interest rate that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. This is important because a guiding principle for this tightening cycle has been to get to neutral as quickly as possible.
The US is now sending more gas to Europe by ship than Russia is sending by pipeline, per the Wall Street Journal.
In July, US liquefied natural gas accounted for 13% of total supply to Europe, compared to 10% from Russian pipelines.
Conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of easing, and the US has stepped in to help the EU amid a historic energy crisis
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has redirected energy deliveries around the world, and one result has been that the US is now sending more gas to Europe by boat than Russia is by pipeline, ICIS data shows, according to theWall Street Journal.
Since 1967, Gazprom’s pipelines in West Siberia and the Yamal peninsula have delivered huge amounts of gas to Europe but that precedent has been turned on its head in recent months.
In July, US liquefied natural gas accounted for 13% of total supply to Europe, compared to 10% from Russian pipelines. Pipelines from Norway were the top source of gas to the continent, while other sources include North African pipelines and Qatar liquefied natural gas supplies, as well as domestic production.
Over the last six months, European wholesale gas prices have tripled as Moscow continues to tighten natural gas flows. State-run Gazprom, citing technical issues, cut Nord Stream 1 natural gas deliveries to Germany to 20% down from 40%.
The European Commission said that 12 member states are enduring severely reduced flows and a handful of nations have been entirely cut off. Just this week, Gazprom halted natural gas deliveries to Latvia.
Now, the continent has turned to importing more Russian diesel amid its struggle to wean off other energy supplies from the country. Imports of Russian diesel are up 23% from a year ago, Vortexa data shows.
With conflict in Ukraine showing no signs of easing and the EU facing a historical energy crisis, the US has stepped in as an emergency energy supplier.
8. Glencore Pays Out $4.45 Billion as Coal Drives Record Profit
Thomas Biesheuvel
(Bloomberg) — Glencore Plc will return an additional $4.45 billion to shareholders in dividends and share buybacks after first-half profit more than doubled to a record thanks to surging coal prices.
Glencore, the world’s top coal shipper, has been one of the biggest winners from the global energy crunch as demand surges for fossil fuels. The company’s sprawling trading business has also cashed in on dramatic price swings across markets from metals to oil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/glencore-pay-4-45-billion-060201404.html
Summary. What does it take to work with an office manipulator? In this piece, the author offers three strategies for dealing with a manipulator at work: First, be skeptical about receiving too much special attention from them. Manipulators don’t usually show their true colors at…more
Almost everyone who’s ever gone to work has had to deal with an office manipulator. Unfortunately, most employees hesitate to go public with their concerns. And with good reason: Even if they do, typical corporate responses range from wary or dismissive to actually retaliating against the victim, rather than the wrongdoer.
Unfortunately, many workplaces promote manipulators because they appear to be effective at getting things done, despite the significant costs their abuse can inflict on productivity and people over time. Particularly when you can’t get the hierarchy or other authorities to intervene on your behalf, it helps to have your own approaches for coping, short of legal action.
Over almost 30 years of consulting, I’ve encountered countless examples of manipulation, bullying, and inappropriate use of power. Three kinds of responses have proven to be consistently effective for confronting most garden-variety manipulators, even if you have less rank, power, or status. At a minimum, they’ll help you assert yourself and regain a sense of control rather than suffering in silence while you figure out your long-term plan.
First, be skeptical about receiving too much special attention. Manipulators don’t usually show their true colors at the beginning of a relationship. In fact, they often present themselves as allies or confidantes, because they need to draw you close to size up where your soft spots are and how much they can get from you. They’re skilled at assessing which employees are sophisticated and confident enough to stand on their own and which ones are eager to please or easy to shame.
It’s exciting if a powerful colleague or superior seems interested in you, but if you’ve heard scary things about them, it’s sensible to proceed with caution. In particular, note if someone treats you as their favorite — but includes little digs that make you feel bad about yourself, puts you down when talking with others, or pressures you to act against your own interests to stay on their good side.
One C-level executive I worked with was hurt by a colleague who claimed to be her supporter and good friend but constantly pointed out imperfections and mistakes in a way that seemed helpful at first but eventually undercut her confidence. Over time, she began to doubt her own instincts and started acting like the manipulative colleague’s sidekick rather than championing her own causes.
By the time the weaker executive recognized what was going on, she had trouble separating herself from her colleague and lost a significant amount of status and clout with her peers. Her credibility and self-image were shaken, and she was not able to regain her footing or influence until she left the company.
Second, be willing to risk small public confrontations. Sometimes the only way to expose a manipulator’s maneuverings is by confronting them in the moment. It can be hard to do this if you’re the junior party. Even senior people can be stunned into disbelief, or might be unable to think of what to say when someone is subverting normal standards of behavior and fair play, despite the organizational damage they know is being done. So when someone has both the moxie and the wit to intervene, it puts the manipulator on notice that their behavior has been detected, and it shows observers that it’s possible to intervene and keep others safe while moving the business forward.
During one client meeting I attended, an executive was making a report by phone while the rest of the leadership team was physically present. At one point, a vice president who had an extremely self-serving and manipulative reputation raised his eyebrows in apparent surprise, shook his head repeatedly, and at the end shrugged, as if to indicate to his peers in the room that he either didn’t agree with what his colleague was saying or didn’t understand why he was saying it — all without him saying a word.
The vice president on the phone had no idea that his credibility and content were being disparaged. I asked the manipulator directly: “Was there something you wanted to add? You looked like you disagreed strongly with what we just heard. Did you want to counter either the conclusion or any of the specifics, or are you comfortable with the report?”
The vice president in the room denied having any disagreement, but he was clearly uncomfortable at being put on the spot and could no longer lord it over or cast aspersions on his colleague. And his colleague was tipped off to the possibility that he had been undermined.
Third, refuse to keep secrets or to act as interpreter in ways that normalize underhanded behavior. Instead, be direct and straightforward and hold your ground. These schemers may treat you like a trusted insider, feeding you tidbits about other people’s inadequacies and failures, as if only you have the perspective and discretion to understand what’s important. Don’t be taken in by the implied flattery. Ask for details and specifics to flush out their intent: “I’m not sure I understand what you mean. Why are you telling me this? What is it you’re asking me to do?”
In another client company, I worked with a leader who was uncomfortable with direct conflict and who tried to get other people — including me — to convey messages that she was afraid to deliver. Rather than letting her hide her criticisms behind others, I would say things like, “You’ve been clear that you don’t like how James handled his team’s conflict. I’ll be happy to meet with you and James so that you can explain your concern, and then I can work with him on managing his team.” Now that she understands her own behavior pattern and has received support to change, she’s far less likely to offload uncomfortable situations to others.
If your position is senior to the manipulator’s, the most effective thing is to begin a rigorous plan of corrective action promptly, using approaches such as these and providing concrete behavioral feedback until they either drop their inappropriate habits or you remove them. And if you hold less power or influence, these three approaches will help you protect yourself and minimize their negative impact both on you and on the rest of the organization, for as long as you’re willing to stay in the game.
The United States is known for its agriculture science and provides some advanced agriculture technology in the world. It proves a role model for many countries in the agriculture sector, and the United States agriculture is developing continually with increasing rates. Developing here refers to scientific soil, crop analysis, more innovative machinery, and increased use of computers. In short, we can say that the United States is the best country in agriculture technology.
Agriculture in the United States expanded by 5% every year after 1990. In addition to this, the production of every farming worker increased by 0.84% every year.
The United States produces the highest amount of timber. Approx 70% of the country’s forests officially owned with bounded logging permitted.
The United States is a net exporter of agricultural commodities. In 2007, the agriculture census recorded 2.2 million farms covering an area for agriculture.
In the United States, corn was the largest crop that produced an amount of 247,882,000 metric tons. And the 2nd one is soybeans with 74,598,000 metric tons. And the 3rd one is wheat that grew an amount of 69,327,000 metric tons.
The major crops in the United States are sugar cane, potatoes, coffee, sugar beets, and bananas.
Hackers yanked almost $200 million in crypto from Nomad, a so-called blockchain bridge.
Blockchain bridges allow users to transfer tokens from one network to another.
They’ve become a prime target for hackers seeking to swindle investors out of millions.
Hackers drained almost $200 million in cryptocurrency from Nomad, a tool that lets users swap tokens from one blockchain to another, in yet another attack highlighting weaknesses in the decentralized finance space.
Nomad acknowledged the exploit in a tweet late Monday.
“We are aware of the incident involving the Nomad token bridge,” the startup said. “We are currently investigating and will provide updates when we have them.”
It’s not entirely clear how the attack was orchestrated, or if Nomad plans to reimburse users who lost tokens in the attack. The company, which markets itself as a “secure cross-chain messaging” service, wasn’t immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
Blockchain security experts described the exploit as a “free-for-all.” Anyone with knowledge of the exploit and how it worked could seize on the flaw and withdraw an amount of tokens from Nomad — sort of like a cash machine spewing out money at the tap of a button.
It started with an upgrade to Nomad’s code. One part of the code was marked as valid whenever users decided to initiate a transfer, which allowed thieves to withdraw more assets than were deposited into the platform. Once other attackers cottoned on to what was going on, they deployed armies of bots to carry out copycat attacks.
“Without prior programming experience, any user could simply copy the original attackers’ transaction call data and substitute the address with theirs to exploit the protocol,” said Victor Young, founder and chief architect of crypto startup Analog.
Have you ever noticed how “busy” has become the new “fine”? As in, when you used to ask somebody how they were doing, they would answer, “Fine.” But nowadays, everybody answers, “Busy.”
Sometimes, people say it just to sound important. But most of the time, the person legitimately means it. They’re busy. There are too many responsibilities and not enough time in the day nor energy in the body to accomplish everything they want to do.
Busy has become the default state for many of us. But is the state improving our lives? Certainly not.
This is a problem. Activity is good, but we can become too busy.
It doesn’t have to be this way.
While busyness seems to be the prevailing condition of the human spirit these days, it is not true of everyone. In other words, busyness is not inevitable.
Some people are not busy. They appear calm, collected, and in control… but still productive. They are enviable in the life they live. What do they understand about life that others do not?
Learning from the Differences
Over the past fourteen years of minimizing my possessions and embracing greater intentionality in life, I’ve given lots of thought to this question:
How do we unbusy our lives but continue to pursue a significant and productive life?
Over the years, I’ve learned a lot from watching others and embracing habits and practices in my own life.
There is a difference between busy and non-busy people. Here are some of the most significant differences I have noticed:
Unbusy people know their purpose.
Unbusy people have thought long and hard about the legacy they want to leave, the goals they choose to pursue, and the significance they wish to discover.
These purposes may change or evolve over the course of one’s life, but they provide boundaries and a road map for the way they spend their days and time.
Goals shape us and goals move us. When we become resolved in the goals we pursue, we are less likely to allow distractions to remain in our life.
Every day we are presented with countless choices of how to spend our time, our energy, our effort, and our money. The wisest of us recognize we have the power to choose (more on that in a moment). But more than that, we know what we should choose, because we are guided by our life’s greatest mission.
Unbusy people are adamant about saying no to things that do not align with their mission.
Of course, sometimes the choices are obvious (I was never good at hockey, woodworking, or automobile mechanics, for example). But the hardest work is done in the trenches.
Staying on mission is about learning to say no to the urgent requests, the popular requests, and the countless opportunities in front of us each day—even good things that we could do. This becomes easier to do, the more resolved we become about our purpose in life.
What is your purpose? What goals do you have for your life? On what mission do you desire to live? And what plan have you developed to help you get there?
Pursue those with your heart and your life. And learn to say no to all the countless opportunities that will distract you from it.
Unbusy people know they have choice in life.
One of the most life-changing discoveries you can make in the pursuit of an unbusy life is the reality that busyness is a decision we make. We are never forced into a lifestyle of busyness.
We control our days. Our hours and our schedules are determined by us.
Greg McKeown, in his book Essentialism, says it this way: “No one can take away your right to choose. You can’t even give it away if you want. You can only forget that you have the power to decide.”
Now, this reality that we always have a choice in life doesn’t mean that there aren’t some external demands that may be placed on our lives. Anybody who has parented a young child knows this to be the case.
But in almost every case, when you get down to it, it is a decision that we made to put ourselves in that situation. You may have demands on your time from a boss, but your choice to stay in that job is yours. A newborn baby may require your time for a period of time, but what pursuit in life is more significant than raising your child?
You are not a victim and you are not a martyr. You need to show up in your life. In fact, you are the only one who can. You always have a choice. Unbusy people understand this and walk in that reality.
Unbusy people say no to almost everything.
Unbusy people know they can achieve more by doing less. Seneca wrote, “Everybody agrees that no one pursuit can be successfully followed by a man who is preoccupied with many things.”
Warren Buffett is credited as saying it this way: “The difference between successful people and very successful people is that very successful people say ‘no’ to almost everything.”
Now, your definition of very successfulmay be different than Warren Buffett’s, but the truth remains the same. If you desire to be successful in your most valued pursuits, you need to say no to the less important pursuits that distract you from them.
Recognize the inherent value in the word no. Learning to say no to less important commitments opens your life to pursue the most important.
Overcome your fear of saying no by reminding yourself, What my family, friends, and world need most is the best version of me that I can possibly be, accomplishing the most good with the one life I’ve been given.
Unbusy people don’t get distracted by unfulfilling pursuits.
You can never accumulate enough of the things that do not lead to fulfillment.
If, by definition, a pursuit can never satisfy our soul and longing for meaning and happiness, it is a pursuit with no end—it will always demand more time and energy. No matter how passionately we pursue it, we are left empty at the end of the day.
I fear too many of our lives resemble this interaction. We search for happiness, fulfillment, and meaning in the wrong places. We have searched for happiness in a number of society’s greatest offerings and have found most of them lacking—or fleeting.
We have searched for happiness in a bigger paycheck… only to discover we immediately desired an even bigger one.
We have searched for happiness in a job promotion or recognition… only to discover the accolades don’t last.
We have searched for happiness in bigger homes… only to discover they are accompanied by burdensome mortgage payments.
We have searched for happiness in fancier cars… only to discover they get scratches and dings just like the others.
We have searched for happiness in alcohol and drugs and sex… only to discover the pleasure has disappeared by morning.
We have searched for happiness in large savings accounts… only to discover money can’t solve all our problems.
When a pursuit does not provide lasting fulfillment, we have two choices:
First, we can chase after it harder and harder, hoping it will eventually satisfy. Or second, we can reject that pursuit altogether.
Choose the latter.
The sooner we recognize these pursuits will never fully satisfy, the easier it is to unbusy our lives.
Surely, lasting happiness and fulfillment can be found somewhere. There is something deep inside telling us that pursuing happiness is not an entirely futile endeavor. We just need to start looking in the right places.
And the sooner we recognize that the pursuits above will never fully satisfy, the easier it is to unbusy our lives.
Unbusy people value the significance of rest.
One of the reasons many of us keep busy schedules is we fail to recognize the value of rest. Rest is essential to our bodies, our minds, and our souls.
Consider the benefits that rest offers: a healthier body, improved life/work balance, less stress, deeper relationships, better opportunity to evaluate life’s direction, refreshed outlook, even increased productivity.
Yet setting aside one day each week for rest remains a practice that fewer and fewer people practice regularly (never mind the idea of taking a two-week vacation).
Overlooking the importance of rest is certainly not unique to our modern society. But our culture has made it increasingly difficult to take rest without specific intentionality.
Rest is not laziness. It is essential for our bodies and spirit. See it as such and embrace it regularly.
Take time for lunch. Find space in your morning to sit quietly before starting your day. Invest in solitude, meditation, or prayer. Find opportunity for breaks at work in between projects. Begin right away cultivating little moments of space and margin in your otherwise busy day.
I work hard to keep an entire day of rest as an important part of my life and weekly routine. But it is an upward battle that requires relentless intentionality—we live in a culture that has far too often underappreciated its value.
Schedule rest on your calendar. Then guard it at all costs.
The Miracle of Margin
If we are wise, we will take our lives seriously. We will seek to develop our talents and skills and grow in our abilities and potential to be our best.
We will realize, however, that this does not occur in a life that is burdened by an over-filled, cluttered, busy schedule. Joshua Becker
