1. 10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate has Dropped by 1/3

What does 10 year breakeven inflation rate mean?

The 10 year breakeven rate measures the difference or gap between 10 year Treasury Bond and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The 10 year breakeven rate serves as an indication of the markets’ inflation expectations over the 10 year horizon.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

2. Price to Sales and Price to Book S&P

S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio

S&P 500 Price to Book Value

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book

3. Highest Inflation in 40 Years…Nasdaq -30%+…VIX sideways no spike.

4. Lumber -50% from Highs

 www.stockcharts.com

5. Homebuilders Hold 200 Week Moving Average

Barrons Cheapest Stocks in S&P—3 are Homebuilders-DHI, PHM, LEN.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cheapest-sp500-stocks-now-51653346274

6. Crude Oil Back to Pre Ukraine Invasion Levels

Bespoke Investment Group-Gas prices are of course driven by the price of crude oil, and in Friday’s Morning Lineup, we noted that crude oil prices have now fallen back to the level they were at when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine back in late February:

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/charts-of-the-week-from-bespoke-7-22-22

7. Earnings Estimates Developed Versus Emerging Markets

Earnings Outlook:  Emerging Markets are usually a few steps ahead of developed markets given the heavy weightings in EM equities to traditional cyclical sectors (and hence sensitivity to the ebb and flow of the global economy).

As such, Developed Markets, and more specifically S&P 500 earnings estimates are likely the next shoe to drop in all this.

Source: @Mayhem4Markets  Found at Callum Thomas Weekly Chart Storm

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-24-july

8. Most Common Statues in America

Washington Post Analysis by Andrew Van Dam

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/15/diversity-statues-highways/

9. The Inflation Adjusted Cost of Baseball Game 1960 vs. 2022…..Its Out of Reach for Working Class Americans

The Hustle Zachary Crockett

America’s favorite family outings are increasingly out of reach

https://thehustle.co/americas-favorite-family-outings-are-increasingly-out-of-reach/

10. Risk Tolerance is the Scarcest Resource at Most Companies.

From Farnam Street https://fs.blog

Risk, decisons, and scarcity-Jason Fried
This weekend I took a long walk with a fellow founder/CEO. We talked on the phone before, but never met in person. We found ourselves in the same city, so it felt like it was time to shake hands and catch up IRL.

He runs a company that’s an order or magnitude larger than 37signals, so his experiences, responsibilities, and perspectives are quite a bit different from mine. But as we’ve careened towards our own renewed growth phase — we’re currently larger than we’ve ever been, and still hiring — a few of his insights really resonated.

And one really stuck.

When he said it, I had to repeat it to make sure I heard it right. I wanted to sear the words in my brain so I both fully understood and wouldn’t forget.

He said “Risk tolerance is the scarcest resource in most companies.” I just love how that’s framed.

He then went on to say, and this one I’m paraphrasing a bit, that it’s the one of the things that sets founder-led companies apart from founder-less companies. Founder-led companies tend to take more risks. They’re more risk tolerant, less risk averse.

He also related this to company size. This one’s a bit more obvious — the larger the company, the more risk averse they are, even if they’re still founder-led. But it’s not just a pure function of size, which is the typical conclusion. No, it’s about distance. The further away a founder is from would-be risky decisions, the more likely those decisions will be safe decisions. It’s only natural.

It made me realize something I may have inherently understood, but hadn’t really realized was a unique responsibility of a founder who’s still running the show: It’s my job — my obligation, really — to fill the coffers with risk. It’s my role to make sure there’s an ample supply. No one else will produce it, and few will introduce it. The more it’s drained, the more it needs to rain.

While the company at large is focused on results, founders should be focused on taking chances.

There are certain risks founders need to take that others will not. Step function changes, for example. Things that can’t be explained by past results and experiments, but a hunch that the equation has changed. All the while keeping in mind that there’s a notable difference between taking a risk and putting yourself at risk.

So, if you’ve decided you want to take a risk, then take it. If you don’t, then keep talking about it — it’ll almost certainly talk you out of it. The safer option is the most abrasive — it’ll wear down the risk, polish the edges, and make the object of beautiful and smooth. But risk needs to snag, or it isn’t much of a risk at all.

-Jason

https://world.hey.com/jason/risk-decisons-and-scarcity-d4c7636c

1. One-Year Treasury Coupon 3.13%

2. Natural Gas -42% Correction Before July Bounce Back.

3. Banks -33% Correction….Bounce Yesterday

4. XLF Financials ETF 16 Straight Weeks of Outflows.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading-The $28.4 billion Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (ticker XLF) has seen outflows for 16 straight weeks, the longest such streak in its 23-year history, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Almost $11 billion has been wiped away in that span, shrinking the fund’s total assets by roughly 28%.

5. Netflix Sideways Pattern on Chart Since April…Forming Bottom?

Long-Term Chart on NFLX Show True Damage…$700 to $180

6. Schwab Chart of Updated Global Equity Valuations

7. Microsoft and 200 Day Moving Average

Michael Batnick–Microsoft hasn’t been this far below its 200-day moving average since 2012.  https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/07/14/everything-must-fall/

8. ESG Have Largest Monthly Outflow on Record

Found at Zerohedge https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/esg.jpg?itok=TudIfEVf

9. 58% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck after inflation spike — including 30% of those earning $250,000 or more

Jessica Dickler@JDICKLER

KEY POINTS

• With inflation still near 40-year highs, more than half of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, according to one report.
• Consumers who are struggling to afford their day-to-day lifestyle tend to rely more on credit cards and carry higher monthly balances making them financially vulnerable.
• Even top earners say they are stretched thin, the report found.

With inflation at 40-year highs, workers across all income levels are having a harder time making ends meet.

As of May, 58% of Americans — roughly 150 million adults — live paycheck to paycheck, according to a new LendingClub report. That’s down slightly from 61% who reported living paycheck to paycheck in April but up from 54% in May 2021.

Even top earners say they are stretched thin, the report found. Of those earning $250,000 or more, 30% are living paycheck to paycheck. (Another recent survey, from consulting firm Willis Towers Watson, estimated 36% of those earning $100,000 or more are living paycheck to paycheck.)

“Consumers have experienced a tough last couple of years as different factors have affected their financial lifestyle, and there seems to be little relief in sight,” said Anuj Nayar, LendingClub’s financial health officer.

With inflation, paychecks don’t stretch as far

The consumer price index, a key inflation gage, rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, the highest increase since December 1981, spurred by surging housing, gasoline and food costs.

Those rising prices meant workers took another pay cut during the month.

When wages rise at a slower pace than inflation, paychecks won’t stretch as far at the grocery store or the gas pump — making it more difficult to cover monthly expenses and set some money aside.

Credit card balances contribute to financial vulnerability

Those struggling to afford their day-to-day lifestyle tend to rely more on credit cards and carry a higher monthly balance, making them financially vulnerable, the survey said.

Overall, credit card balances rose year over year, reaching $841 billion in the first three months of 2022, according to a separate report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

At this rate, balances could soon reach record levels amid higher prices for gas, groceries and housing, among other necessities, according to Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com.

For its part, the Federal Reserve has been hiking its target federal funds rate in an effort to calm runaway inflation.

However, anyone carrying a balance will also see the annual percentage rate on their credit card head higher as the Fed continues to raise rates to try and tamp down rising prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/more-than-half-of-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-amid-inflation.html#:~:text=As%20of%20May%2C%2058%25%20of,from%2054%25%20in%20May%202021

10. Arete: The Meaning of Life

I’ll admit that this is an ambitious post title. Thinkers have struggled against this question for thousands of years. One of the interesting things about this question is that the answers don’t converge on a single point. Instead there are many different methods to answer what might be the most important human question.

I’m certainly not going to answer that question in a blog post. Not only would that be incredibly presumptuous of me, but I think it sort of misses the point. Who wants to live a life where you’re handed all the correct answers in advance?

Instead, I’d like to focus on one viewpoint to this problem that I stumbled upon recently. This is a perspective I hadn’t heard before and nicely deals with some of the uncomfortable problems I feel have been brought up with the current Western stance on the problem. This answer to the meaning of life is simply: arete.

What is Arete?

Arete is an ancient Greek word meaning excellence or virtue. The arete of something is the highest quality state it can reach. Using arete as a principle for living life means that you are focused on the quality of everything you do and experience. Avoid actions that lack arete. Take actions that focus on arete.

When most people think of virtue, they look at moral virtue. But arete as a way of describing quality, touches on much more than that. A beautiful painting can have arete, even though it isn’t ethically superior to a dull painting.

I believe arete is a more comprehensive way of viewing life than the two main directions I see from popular Western philosophies.

Happiness or Service? Pick a Side.

I’m grossly simplifying philosophy here (so if you’re well versed in philosophical teachings, hopefully you won’t take offense to my blunt-club treatment of the topic). But in most of the readings I’ve done of major Western views on the meaning of life, I could clump them into two broad categories: happiness or service.

Pursuing Love and Happiness

“Don’t worry, be happy.” – Bobby McFerrin

The first viewpoint is that the ultimate meaning in life is happiness. Not just the naive happiness of short-term pleasure, but the long-term, pursuit of your dreams, happiness. From this viewpoint, your goal should be to maximize your long-term happiness by taking the best actions you feel will reach you there.

As a whole, I don’t feel this philosophy is completely broken. While a few people might be able to achieve happiness without connecting and providing value to the world, I don’t think most could. So the naive view that this philosophy degenerates into addiction and selfishness isn’t valid.

But the problem with this philosophy is that it isn’t always practical. Happiness can often twist on itself when you make it the goal of your actions. Getting the dream job, spouse or million dollars leaves you as unhappy as you were before. Pursuing happiness completely may also feel somewhat shallow as if the entire point of your existence rests on a few neurotransmitters in your brain.

Pursuing Service and Purpose

“At first I thought that life was joy. Then I learned that life was duty. Finally, I acted and, behold, duty was joy.” – Rabindranath Tagore

The second stream of Western thought in my blunt-club look at life philosophies is focusing on purpose and service. This stream of thought usually focuses on helping other people as a means of achieving meaning in life.

Just with our first philosophical stream, the naive view points out that a life devoted to service misses out on happiness. You’re so busy helping others that you don’t have a chance to enjoy life for yourself. I don’t feel this is a valid criticism, because as Tagore said, “duty was joy.” Serve and you will be happy.

But like the other philosophy, I feel this approach suffers from a weakness. The philosophy, if you look at it closely, tends to loop back on itself. The meaning of your life comes from having a purpose. Therefore your purpose is to have a purpose. It doesn’t take too much thinking to wonder whether there is a purpose to your purpose.

I don’t feel this small flaw destroys an entire viewpoint of the world, but it does make it somewhat less useful.

Pursuing Arete

“And what is good, Phaedrus, And what is not good — Need we ask anyone to tell us these things?” – Socrates

Instead of using words like “happiness” or “purpose” I prefer the word arete. Arete, covers the idea that there is an excellence in everything. Pursuing that excellence, whether it creates happiness for yourself or service for others, should be your ultimate goal. I see both happiness and service as being subsets of the larger domain of arete.

Who decides what has quality? I’m not going to touch this question and instead tell you to read Robert Pirsig’s, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. Pirsig believed that quality (or arete) was the underlying substance of the universe, from which both the subjective and objective are derived. Quality creates the mind and it creates the world.

On a more practical level, arete is a nifty word to have. It fits easily in the backpocket of your life philosophy and makes it easier to decide what you should focus on. Instead of focusing on just your total happiness or your total service, you focus on the quality of whatever you do.

Here are a few ways I’ve been trying to incorporate the philosophy of arete into my own life:

1. Gym Workouts. To me, strength, speed and flexibility are all signs of arete. Rather than put my emphasis on goals when exercising (from the happiness philosophy) or how being healthy will help me aid society (service philosophy), I focus on quality. Therefore, when I’m at the gym, I try to make my goal to have private excellence: lifting more weight, running faster or working harder.
2. Blog Writing. The happiness/service split here would be focusing on writing articles that will get me massive traffic flows or focusing on writing articles that will provide immense value to people. Instead I’d like to focus on arete–making each article the best expression of an idea that I can within the constraints.
3. Relationships. Instead of focusing on how people can help me, or how I can help people, focus on arete. What is quality in a relationship? My guess would be connection, sharing, loyalty, deep conversations or laughter.
4. Knowledge. I’m reading through The Wealth of Nations right now for fun. The book is difficult to read and requires more effort than a more entertaining novel. Why am I reading it? Because, for me, this book has arete. It represents a significant leap forward in human thought and I want to be a part of that journey Adam Smith started.
5. Food. Instead of eating for taste, weight goals or even long-term health, eat for arete. Eat the foods that have quality to you. This applies both in taste and nutrition. Eating greasy junk or cardboard-flavored health snacks both fail my model of arete.
6. Speech. Are your sentences peppered with um’s and ah’s? Do your words have clarity and meaning, or do you not know when to shut up? I’ve been trying to debug my communication patterns to help fit in with this model of quality.

These are just a few examples, but I thought I’d like to demonstrate a few of the practical applications from a life philosophy. I like to view philosophies to be like algorithms for life. If you have a great algorithm, you can solve problems with few flaws. Arete, while it isn’t perfect, is a fantastic algorithm for life.

https://www.scotthyoung.com/blog/2008/03/12/arete-the-meaning-of-life/

1. Major Indices Holding Above 200 Week Moving Averages.

S&P above 200 week

Nasdaq Comp above 200 week

www.stockcharts.com

2. Dow Jones and Dow Transports Above 200 Week

Dow Industrials

Dow Transports

3. Small Caps had Worse First Half Ever…Holding Sideways on 200 Week

www.stockcharts.com

4. Japanese Yen Falls to 20 Year Low vs. U.S. Dollar

www.stockcharts.com

5. Overall Asian Currencies have Slumped to Historical Lows vs. Dollar

Bloomberg-Unstoppable Dollar Risks Worsening $71 Billion Asia Stock Exodus

Unstoppable Dollar Risks Worsening $71 Billion Asia Stock Exodus-Ishika Mookerjee

(Bloomberg) — The dollar’s relentless rise is threatening to trigger more outflows from Asia’s emerging-market shares, spoiling hopes of the region making a comeback in the second half.

A gauge of Asian currencies has slumped to its lowest in more than two years, an ominous sign for equities given their strong relationship with moves in foreign exchange. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index has fallen 20% as foreign investors took $71 billion out of stock markets in emerging Asia outside China so far this year, already double the outflows in 2021.

The dollar has steamrolled through global currency markets lately, benefiting from bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. A stronger greenback bodes ill for Asian stocks when it signals lower risk appetite and is also seen as negative for growth in emerging economies, many of which rely on imports priced in the currency.

“The dollar is strengthening because there’s risk aversion rather than growth” and that’s “not a good mix” for Asian assets, said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unstoppable-dollar-risks-worsening-71-000000106.html

6. South Korea Chipmakers Inventory Build

QUARTZ Meanwhile, South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance reports that Korean chipmakers are sitting on a rapidly growing stockpile of unsold chips. The country, which is the world’s biggest producer of memory chips for electronics like laptops and smartphones, hasn’t seen its semiconductor inventory rise this fast since 2018.

https://qz.com/2186673/its-the-best-and-worst-of-times-for-semiconductor-supply-chains/

From Barry Ritholtz blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/weekend-reads-525/

7. The Tesla of China ….BYD Hit All-Time Highs

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BYDDF:OTCMKTS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwivy7jdg4H5AhW3hYkEHSPKCpMQ3ecFegQIFxAY

2022-BYD +11% vs. TSLA -32%

www.yahoofinance.com

8. Tesla’s Layoffs All Scooped Up Already

Here’s where Tesla’s recently laid-off talent is going

Fred Lambert

@FredericLambert

https://electrek.co/2022/07/11/where-tesla-recently-laid-off-talent-going/

9. 10 Places Where the Housing Market’s Tide Has Turned

1. Yield Curve Full Inversion.

CNBC-Yield curve inversion between 10-year and 2-year rates reaches biggest point since 2000

Samantha Subin@SAMANTHA_SUBINMatt Clinch@MATTCLINCH81

The 2-year Treasury yield popped Wednesday while its 10-year counterpart fell, pushing the so-called inversion between the two to its biggest level since 2000. Yield-curve inversions are seen by many on Wall Street as signals that a recession lies on the horizon.

The 2-year, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, traded more than 9 basis points higher at around 3.138%. The benchmark 10-year rate, meanwhile, slid nearly 4 basis points to 2.919%. Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.

Those moves came after the U.S. government said after the consumer price index rose 9.1% on a year-over-year basis in June. That’s well above a Dow Jones estimate of 8.8% and marked the fastest pace for inflation since November 1981. It also added to worries of even tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-higher-as-traders-prepare-for-inflation.html

2. U.S. Steel -57% in 3 Months…Back to Covid Levels

U.S. Steel Stock hit $16.50 intra-day 2020 levels

www.stockcharts.com

3. European Brent Crude Priced in Euros

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

4. Commodities Decline from Peaks

@samRo

(20) Sam Ro  (@SamRo) / Twitter

5. Odds of 100 Basis Point Raise in July Hit 30%

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

6. Inflation Breakeven Inflation Rates Falling Quickly

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab-Breakeven rates descending quickly over past 3 months … drop in 1y, 5y, and 10y is steepest since summer 2020

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSounders

7. Public Companies Record Stock Buybacks in Q2

WSJ By Hannah Miao Companies are also using their cash to repurchase their own shares at record levels, with second-quarter buybacks expected to set a fresh high of $286.4 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

CSD-Buyback ETF Clear Down Channel on Chart….broke uptrend line going back to end of 2019

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dividend-payouts-hit-record-despite-rocky-stretch-in-markets-11657618381?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo

8. Chinese Homebuyers Across 22 Cities Refuse to Pay Mortgages

(Bloomberg) — Across China, homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages as property developers drag on construction projects, escalating the country’s real estate crisis and risks of bad debt for banks.

Buyers of 35 projects across 22 cities have decided to stop paying mortgages as of July 12 due to project delays and a drop in real estate prices, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Griffin Chan wrote in a research report distributed on Wednesday.

The payment refusals underscore how the storm engulfing China’s property sector is now affecting the country’s middle class, posing a threat to social stability. Chinese banks already grappling with challenges from liquidity stress among developers now also have to brace for homebuyer defaults.

Now is “a critical time for social stability,” said Chan, adding that “the forgoing of down payments may bring social instability.”

A drop in home values hasn’t helped. Average selling prices of properties in nearby projects in 2022 were on average 15% lower than purchase costs in the past three years, according to Citigroup’s research.

The contagion is spreading to banks. Non-performing loans triggered by the wave of mortgage payment snubs could reach as much as 561 billion yuan ($83 billion), about 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance, according to Chan.

While the overall impact on banks will be “manageable,” state lenders including China Construction Bank Corp., Postal Savings Bank of China Co. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. may have more exposure to mortgages, and could suffer setbacks amid dampened investor sentiment, Chan wrote.

Postal Savings Bank’s shares fell 3.3% as of 2 p.m. in Shanghai, while ICBC declined 2%. The CSI 300 Banks Index fell as much as 2.7%, the most since April 25.

For Chinese banks, the non-performing loan ratio of mortgages was well below the level of other forms of lending, according to the banking regulator. At China Construction Bank, only 0.2% of its residential mortgages were bad as of December, compared with 1.42% for total loans.

The latest development comes at a time when renewed risks of Covid restrictions also pose a threat to the industry. A key real estate index fell for a third day Wednesday, heading for the lowest level since March.

Read: How China’s property bond plunge is spreading

A Bloomberg index of China’s high-yield dollar bonds fell to the lowest in a decade as of Tuesday. Domestic bonds of large property developers, including Gemdale Corp. and Country Garden Holdings Co., also slumped to record lows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-homebuyers-across-22-cities-062113892.html

9. Home Prices Slowdown but the U.S. is Still Under Built

@robanderson_stl

While the cyclical story could continue to weigh on the Homebuilding sub-industry, long-term fundamentals remain strong. NDR estimates around a 2.5 million unit shortage in housing for 2022 due to persistent underbuilding since the GFC. 2/4

https://twitter.com/robanderson_stl

10. ‘They couldn’t even scream any more. They were just sobbing’: the amateur investors ruined by the crypto crash

The Guardian Sirin Kale

The mania around bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies was fuelled by a social media hype machine unprecedented in the history of financial markets. Investors touted new coins that were amassing huge returns, hung off the tweets of crypto-influencers and spoke in impenetrable jargon. “Demand for bitcoin related purely to the level of interest in this new technology, and that interest was manipulated by the companies that offered different cryptocurrencies and exchanges and startups,” Yarovaya says. “All of this happened on social media, meaning that investors didn’t even know whether there was genuine interest in crypto, or lots of Twitter bots encouraging people to buy. The system wasn’t transparent.”

There are eight stages of crypto-crash grief.

Shock. “I couldn’t eat or sleep for two nights,” says Alla Driksne, a 34-year-old chef from London. “I got sick from the stress.” She has lost her life savings – a six-figure sum – in the Celsius freeze.

Denial. “I always thought the next project would bring me back up again and I’d cash out before it crashed,” says Roy. “In the next cycle, I’m going to try. In the next cycle, I’m going to do it again.” A part of him still believes this is possible.

Anger. Alex Koh, a 41-year-old engineer and personal finance YouTuber from Glasgow, directs his towards Do Kwon, the South Korean entrepreneur who founded terra/luna. Koh says he lost enough to buy a four-bedroom house in London. Kwon has been accused of fraud by five investors based in South Korea; he is being investigated there by a financial crimes unit and in the US by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The rollercoaster has taken crypto holders on a downward spiral. Many people have been caused serious financial pain

Susannah Streeter

Bargaining. Vahid, a 31-year-old from London, has used Twitter to plead for his money with Alex Mashinsky, the founder of Celsius. Vahid’s life savings, more than £50,000 in cryptocurrency, is locked in his Celsius account. Vahid had planned to use the money to start a business or buy a house. For support, he spends his time on conference calls with other Celsius victims; I listen in to one. “I know anything short of getting your native token [initial investment] back is unacceptable,” says one investor, with desperation in his voice. “But would you rather get back 10%, or 20%, or 34%, you know? Now, I’m hoping it’s not a complete loss.”

Depression. “I thought I’d be able to retire early,” says Koh. “But it’s all gone down the drain. I’ve never cried so much in my life.”

Acceptance and hope. “I worked my ass off doing 16-hour days for six years to earn this money,” says Driksne. “This is hard-earned money. That’s what hurts the most. I lost six years of hard work. But I am trying to stay positive. I’ll make it back again.”

Shame. Vahid hasn’t told anyone he has lost his life savings. “I don’t want people turning around to me, saying: you should have taken your money out last year,” he says. I ask him if he is embarrassed. “Of course,” he responds.

Processing. “I hope that I can show that I am willing to learn and accept my mistakes,” says Koh. “If I rebound from this, perhaps I can be an inspiration to people elsewhere around the world – or my kids, at least.”

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash

1. Inflation Adjusted S&P Returns Worst in Modern Times

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are US inflation-adjusted stock market returns during past episodes of turmoil:

The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-july-8th-2022/

2. Are Commodities Third Peaking Asset Class?

Callum Thomas-It’s the old textbook market cycle in progress: first bonds peak, then stocks peak, then commodities peak… At it’s simplest, price just reflects the progression of the business cycle (and inflation/monetary policy)

https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas

3. U.S. Dollar Record Strength

ZeroHedge Blog-Earnings Season The simple math on S&P 500 earnings from currency is that for every percentage point increase on a year-on-year basis it’s approximately a 0.5x hit to EPS growth. At today’s 16% year-on-year level, that translates into an 8% headwind for S&P 500 EPS growth, all else equal.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-soaring-dollar-will-crush-earnings-growth-and-snuff-rally-stocks

4. Driving Electric Car in Germany Getting Very Expensive

Electricity Pricing in Germany

Michael A. Arouet
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1546107176116260865/photo/1

5. Three Popular Sentiment Measures Combined…Hit GFC Lows

Investors Sentiment as Contra Indicator….All Hitting Lows
Bespoke Blog -The more bearish turn at the expense of bulls witnessed in this week’s AAII survey was echoed by other readings on sentiment like the Investors Intelligence survey and NAAIM Exposure index. Combining all three of these sentiment readings into one composite, overall outlooks for the market took a further bearish turn this week with the average survey currently 1.8 standard deviations below its historical norm. That is slightly better than earlier this spring, but still, the only period since the mid-2000s with similarly pessimistic readings was in late 2008 and into 2009.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bulls-back-below-20-2

6. Short Duration 1-3 year Bonds -3.5% vs. 20 Year Bond -23%

www.yahoofinance.com

7. Treasury Market Volatility Traded Back to Covid Crisis Levels in 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-11/jpmorgan-s-josh-younger-explains-why-the-bond-market-keeps-getting-shocked?sref=GGda9y2L

8. Amazon Spent $700m Policing Counterfeiting Last Year

This was 2019
Amazon puts out counterfeit warning

9.Americans on Gun Laws

From the Big Picture Blog-by Barry Ritholtz

https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/sunday-reads-281/

10. 3 Ways to Not Feel Overwhelmed Anymore

Psychology Today-Research explains how to withstand the toughest of emotions-Mark Travers Ph.D.
We all feel like we’re being held hostage by our emotions every now and then. While emotions can be overwhelming at times, most psychologists will tell you that they can also be powerful carriers of information about your mind and personality.

However, it can be difficult to understand your emotions from a detached distance if they begin to overpower you. To combat this vulnerability, here are three research-backed ways you can gain more control over problematic or painful emotions and build mental fortitude.

#1. Undo rejection through objectivity

According to psychologist Mark Leary of Duke University, rejection can come in six forms:

1. Criticism
2. Betrayal
3. Active dissociation (for example, a romantic breakup)
4. Passive dissociation (like not being included)
5. Being unappreciated
6. Being teased

Hurt feelings resulting from any of the mentioned events can result in the experience of the “rejection emotion,” which can then turn into sadness, anger, or even anxiety.

“People don’t need to be actually rejected to have the subjective experience of rejection,” says Leary. “For instance, even though we know that our romantic partners accept and love us, they can (unintentionally) make us feel rejected and hurt our feelings in certain situations.”

In order to tackle our rejection emotion, Leary explains that we must first understand why it is so important for us to feel accepted. Simply put, people feel accepted when they think that they have high “relational value,” or worth, to another person or group of people. A great deal of our behavior, thought, and emotion, according to Leary, is driven by our need to belong to groups.

Therefore, Leary advises, if you are experiencing the rejection emotion, make sure that you do not underestimate your relational value because of ambiguous social cues or misinterpreting neutral feedback from others as negative feedback. This is necessary because most people go through life feeling more rejected than they actually are.

“Viewed in this way, the first step to address one’s concerns with rejection is to examine the evidence as objectively as possible, trying not to read too much negativity into them,” warns Leary.

Having said that, if you are going through an obvious and painful rejection, here’s how you can boost your feeling of acceptance:

• Learn to ignore the negative reactions of people whose opinions of us are unimportant
• Seek connections with people with whom we have a higher relational value
• If necessary, make changes in ourselves that would increase the degree to which other people value having connections with us

#2. Watch closely for emotion dysregulation

Emotion dysregulation is best understood as the repeated encroachment of unhelpful emotional patterns. According to researchers, it lies at the core of a range of psychological disorders.

Emotional dysregulation can be elusive, as it can result from multiple causes. According to psychologist Arela Agako, instances of this phenomenon coalesce around five themes:

1. Brain activation
2. Physiology
3. Cognition
4. Behavior
5. Individual experience

“We can draw some conclusions from the overlap between all the different theories out there that try to define emotions and emotion dysregulation,” says Agako. “For example, in the case of fear, our amygdala gets activated (brain activation), we notice a lot of changes in our body, such as our heart rate increasing (physiology), we might notice thoughts related to danger (cognition), we might have an urge to run away (behavior), and we also might have different ways of describing this experience (experiential).”

An emotion can be activated when it is not helpful or needed. Or, an emotion can fail to activate when it is needed. It is not uncommon for the intensity of an emotion to be too high or too low than what is helpful in the moment. Moreover, emotions can last longer or shorter than we need them to. These things happen to everyone because our brains and bodies aren’t perfect.

If you are someone who struggles with emotional dysregulation, Agako has the following advice:

• Make time for the emotion, preferably in a comfortable setting and when you can dedicate a few minutes to it without being interrupted
• Notice precisely what the emotion feels like in your body
• Try to name the emotion
• Reflect on whether the emotion was justified by the situation or whether it came from somewhere else
• If the emotion is justified, ask yourself what the emotion is telling you you need at that moment. Is it finding social support? Is it figuring out a way to get out of a dangerous situation? Is it apologizing to someone? Or, is it something else?
• If the emotion isn’t justified, ask yourself if there is another way to think of the situation or what you might say to a friend who is in the same situation

#3. Use the “thinking threshold” to ride your emotional wave

Emotions are like waves: they have a beginning, middle, and end. Something (a situation in life, a thought about the past) triggers an emotion inside us. Like waves, emotions rise up, peak, and eventually come back down.

A study by psychologist Jennifer Villieux identified the “thinking threshold” as a level of emotional intensity above which thinking is impaired—where thinking is driven more by emotion than by logic. When one reaches this point, it is inadvisable to use strategies like cognitive reappraisal that require you to think logically as a means to regulate your emotions. Beyond the thinking threshold, complex cognition is impaired.

Therefore, using behavioral or sensory strategies is a better idea when above the thinking threshold, like splashing your face with ice water, taking a walk, or getting a hug.

Villieux also has the following words of wisdom for anyone who relates to this experience:

1. Sometimes emotions need to be felt. It’s okay to just ride it out, because the emotion will not last forever. It will come down because that’s what emotions do; waves crest and then recede.
2. In some cases, cognitive appraisal as a coping strategy may not be the best choice. For instance, cognitive reappraisal may lead to rationalizing of an abuser’s actions in a predatory or abusive relationship.
3. When you have made it past the emotional peak, make a concerted effort to use cognitive strategies to avoid such surges in the future. So, when you can think clearly, try to engage in some perspective-taking, problem-solving, or reflection on the experience.

Conclusion: Emotions are a big part of our lives, whether we like them or not. With a little bit of perspective, planning, and objectivity, they can transform from being our kryptonite to being our North Star.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202207/3-ways-not-feel-overwhelmed-anymore