1. Federal Tax Revenue was 19.6% of GDP Last Fiscal Year…Highest on Record

It’s important for investors to recognize that even if the Democrats end up with narrow control of the House, they are unlikely to raise taxes in the next couple of years.  Federal tax revenue was 19.6% of GDP in the fiscal year that ended September 30.  That’s the highest on record with the exceptions of the peak of the first internet boom in 2000 and World War II.

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Firsttrust  Microsoft Word – w111422 – Democrats Overperform (ftportfolios.com)

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/tax-revenue–of-gdp

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2. Bitcoin Breaks Off from Tech Stocks.

Crypto and Tech Stocks stopped moving together on FTX news….This chart is BITO (bitcoin etf) compared to QQQ…straight down

One Month Performance….QQQ +11% vs. Bitcoin -15%

www.yahoofinance.com

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3. Ten Year Treasury Yield Closes Below 50Day Moving Average

Short Treasury Bond ETF is TBF….It Never Broke Above RED Long-Term Downtrend Line Dating Back to 2008 GFC

www.stockcharts.com

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4. Extreme Inversion of Yield Curve Tends to Coincide with Peak Fed Funds Rate

Percy Allison Jefferies LLC The yield curve is extremely inverted (2 year minus 10 year yield is -65bps) implying, based on historical precedent, that the odds of a 2023 recession are high (corroborated by ISM New Orders & Prices Paid/Inventories). A deeply inverted yield curve also tends to coincide with a peak in the Fed Funds Rate. We assume a 50bp hike in December in the chart below.

Source: Jefferies Trading Desk

Percy Allison Jefferies LLC

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5. Vanguard Total International Stock ETF Rallies Right Back to 200 Day

Vanguard International hits resistance at 200day….interesting 50day never closed below 200day on downside

www.stockcharts.com

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6. Most Crowded Trades….Long Dollar by Far the Largest

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7. The U.S. Needs Battery Plants….8 of 10 Largest Battery Plants in China

WSJ By Stephen Wilmot

Koch Teams With Startup to Build Giant Battery Factory in Georgia – WSJ

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8. American Credit Card Balances Reversed Quickly from Covid Lows

American household debt has hit a new high, with the collective tab rising $351bn in the latest quarter, taking the total owed by households to more than $16.5 trillion. There’s not many comparisons to give that number context, but its roughly 5x the size of the UK economy, or just shy of 7x what Apple is worth.

Credit or debit?Though mortgages are still by far the biggest source of debt, the collective credit card balance was the category that grew fastest on a relative basis. All told, household credit card debt grew 15% year-on-year, the largest annual jump for more than 20 years. A group of Federal Reserve researchers, hardly known for their sensationalist exaggeration, said that the increase “towers over the last 18 years of data”.
With over 500 million accounts open in the US, credit cards are a staple of consumer spending — more than 190 million Americans have at least one account, and 13% reported having five or more cards.

The concern for the economy is that consumers will find themselves owing more, at a higher interest rate, and may struggle to make payments. The good news is that, per The New York Fed, delinquency rates so far have only risen very modestly — and in a historical context remain low — suggesting that people are making payments on time.

www.chartr.com

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9. Interesting International Home Ownership Data

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank Adrian Cox and Galina Pozdnyakova in my team have just produced a report on global housing as part of my team’s 101 series aimed at simplifying big important topics for generalists. Today’s CoTD shows the proportion of homes by ownership status for a selection of countries. There are some interesting extremes in the data. Italy has a very low ownership by mortgage with only 10.8% owned with a mortgage and 60.8% of housing stock owned outright without one. This hints at a more traditional multi-generational family ownership structure. Spain is not too dissimilar. English speaking and Nordic countries are much more likely to have mortgages as the highest form of home ownership. Germany and Switzerland have the highest amount of renters in the sample.

The report shows that the hottest markets in recent years are in countries with the highest household debt ratios to GDP hinting at leverage fuelled gains. It also shows the maturity split of mortgages issued in recent times. For example virtually all Finnish and Norwegian mortgages issued in the last year or so have been variable with a fixed rate of no more than 12 months but virtually all new US mortgages have been long-term fixed.

Every market is different so it’s impossible to put a one-size fits all valuation framework on global housing but this report will hopefully give you some basic facts to understand the major differences. The table on p.19 puts it all together and shows which markets might be most at risk going forward. See here for the full report.

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10. 5 Reasons Fear Can Make You Better

By Patti Johnson | August 27, 2013 | 0   The fear of not being good enough, smart enough or successful enough can be debilitating. In my last blog, I talked about why it’s so helpful to know your “go-to” fears so you can learn to anticipate and manage them.

In certain situations, fear can also be expected. It is, for example, a normal part of starting any change. In fact, I have been studying people who made the decision to start a change. Many of them had some fears, but those fears didn’t stop them from acting. One new business owner told me that she was afraid at times, but she wanted to reach her goal so badly that she just accepted the fear and kept going. We often think of fear in a negative way, but fear can be a very positive force, one to signal that you are changing and growing. It can:

1. Be a sign that you are doing something that’s important to you
2. Indicate that you are learning something very new
3. Confirm that you are outside of your comfort zone
4. Give you creative energy and ideas
5. Cause you to act on something that you know is important

Ask anyone who has begun major changes in their work or life, and there is always some fear and discomfort. That is part of it. When I started my business, my fear of failure was absolutely a motivator and I did my best to use it to my benefit—at least most days. The reality is that if it were easy, you would have already done it. Progress is more likely to happen once you begin managing and using your fear to your advantage.

There is also a different kind of fear—the fear of being successful. Recently, a friend said to me, “I’ve realized that I’m not afraid of failure. I’m afraid of success.” We begin to wonder, what if the new business takes off? What if I get the new job? What if I get the book contract? Can I do it? Our own self-doubt can trip us up not only in our ability to get there, but in wondering what happens if we do.

I am reminded of one of my favorite quotes of all time from Marianne Williamson: “Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, ‘Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?’ Actually, who are you not to be?” Even fear of success can get in our way.

Accept that the fear factor is a natural part of starting down a new path. Know and accept your “go-to” fears so you are ready for them when they appear. Find the positives of fear and don’t aim to go around or avoid it. If you accept and embrace some of your fear, it can work for you—and it just might be a sign that you are ready to start a change that has been waiting for you.

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This article was published in August 2013 and has been updated. Photo by Dragon Images/Shutterstock

https://www.success.com/five-reasons-why-fear-can-make-you-better/

1. No Fund Outflows at All

Callum Thomas Chart Storm Flow With the Go:  Fund flows show outflow no-show.

Source:  @ISABELNET_SA  https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-13-november

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2. History of S&P Below 200 Day Moving Average LPL Research

https://i0.wp.com/lplresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Chart-.png?ssl=1

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3. Schwab Traders Favorite Longs

Still, traders “have their eyes open on a few different sectors and categories” that they feel are poised to do well, Metzger said, noting that they are bullish on value stocks and fixed income, as well as energy, healthcare, utilities and consumer-staples sectors.

By  Christine Idzelis

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whats-in-among-bearish-stock-market-traders-and-whats-out-according-to-charles-schwab-survey-11668516776?mod=home-page\

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4. Sentiment Indicator Hit Extreme Levels

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Better Breadth Unlike the summer rally, the rip higher in stocks late last week came in response to inflation data that was actually better than expected. It was also aided by the drop in bond yields and the continued retreat in the U.S. dollar. In addition, there are now 56% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages vs. 51% at the mid-August high—at which point the index was 330 points higher than it was as of Friday’s close. We continue to believe the average stock will do well relative to the largest cap stocks (i.e., equal weight will continue to outperform cap weight).

The rally was also aided by quite dour investor sentiment conditions leading into last week. We have been pointing out the better (contrarian) environment for stocks—at least as it related to attitudinal measures of sentiment. Last week’s “crypto carnage” (more on that below) was a likely trigger for behavioral sentiment measures finally falling into line with attitudinal measures.

SentimenTrader’s Panic/Euphoria Model, which is a blend of attitudinal and behavioral sentiment indicators, recently inflected higher from a historically low reading, as shown below. As the accompanying table highlights, although equity market performance was mixed historically in the near-term after similar inflections; it was universally strong a year later.

A little less panic

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/swing-swing-wild-week

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5. Tech Rallying the Last 2 Weeks but Vanguard Energy ETF Hit New Highs

Energy Still Leading Sector

www.stockcharts.com

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6. Cintas Corporation Would Seem to be Very Tied to Economic Cycle…..It is not Acting Like Recession 2023.

Cintas about to make new highs……One of the best S&P stocks for last 25 years.

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7. Taiwan Semi Big Move Higher but Still not Even Back to Early Sept Highs

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8. More on LA Ports…Quietest Month Since 2009

Zerohedge LA Port Head Says October Was ‘Quietest’ Month Since 2009

BY TYLER DURDEN About a year ago, there was a massive queue outside two of America’s biggest ports, located on the West Coast. Now, the ports are coming to a crawl during the peaking shipping season, ahead of the busiest shopping period of the year.

There’s no longer a massive amount of container ships outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, which handle 40% of all cargo containers entering the country.

According to Gene Seroka, head of the Port of Los Angeles, the backlog has all but dissipated. In an online briefing, he said the Port of LA had the quietest October since 2009. 

Together, LA and Long Beach are the main seaport gateway into the US economy from China. The quietest October since the GFC is sign retailers and manufacturers have slowed or stopped ordering from overseas due to either high inventories or collapsing demand.

Seroka’s comment Tuesday is another piece to the puzzle of an emerging global slowdown:

We predict in May that an inventory glut, i.e., the reverse bullwhip effect, would cool the booming freight market. It’s peak shipping season — retailers have already canceled overseas orders as freight companies reduce shipping capacity ahead of Black Friday and Christmas.

Companies across the board are bloated with inventories. This can be shown in the inventory-to-sales ratio, reaching multi-decade highs — forcing importers to reduce shipments from overseas suppliers.

LA Port Head Says October Was ‘Quietest’ Month Since 2009 | ZeroHedge

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9. The “Smartest” Funds in World Suffer FOMO ….Big Private Equity and Pensions Buying FTX at Top

From Irrelevant Investor Blog Michael Batnick

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/11/16/animal-spirits-the-crypto-blow-up/

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10. The Collapse of British Empire

Scott Galloway–As they gained territory and resources, each empire continued to expand. Brits in 1910 had witnessed six decades of growth. With each land grab came greater stores of resources, more coffee and molasses to import to their island. This created new markets and business opportunities to fund more land grabs. And the wheel turned.

However, from the British Empire to the Qing Dynasty to the Ottomans, they all have one thing in common: They all fall.

https://www.profgalloway.com/hubris/

1.ETF Traders Bet Big Against Tech Rally

Dave Lutz Jones Trading PAIN TRADE– ETF traders just placed a record wager against the big comeback in tech stocks – As the Nasdaq 100 Index soared late last week, some $658 million was funneled into the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ exchange-traded fund (SQQQ). That’s the largest-ever inflow for a product that aims to deliver three times the opposite performance of the US benchmark for major technology companies.

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2. One Inflation Figure Not Coming Down Yet….Residential Energy Prices

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders

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3. Year Over Year CPI International Markets.

Cresset-Jack Ablin

How to Prepare for Endemic Inflation | Cresset Capital

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4. Emerging Markets Rally Off Falling Dollar….

EEM ETF approaching resistance levels from Summer

This chart shows emerging markets vs. the U.S. dollar…straight down since end of 2020

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5. Crypto Bank Silvergate Capital….$220 to $35

www.stockcharts.com

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6. Broker Dealer ETF Jumps 25% on Mystery Whale Investment ….$211M Mystery Bet on Monday

Bloomberg Wall Street ETF Gets $211 Million Mystery Inflow, Most Since 2008

-IAI sees its second-biggest inflow in off-exchange transaction

-ETF focused on broker-dealers, exchanges is up 25% since June

BySam Potter  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/wall-street-etf-gets-211-million-mystery-inflow-most-since-08?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

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7. S&P Rallies Back to 200Day

www.stockcharts.com

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8. How Australia became the world’s greatest lithium supplier

By Royce Kurmelovs10th November 2022

As demand soars for electric vehicles and clean energy storage, Australia is rising to meet much of the world’s demand for lithium. While this helps reduce the need for fossil fuels, it raises another question – how can we source lithium sustainably?

Roughly a three-hour drive south of Perth, Western Australia, off the South Western Highway and behind the historic mining town of Greenbushes, the land beyond the town’s primary school falls away to reveal a deep, grey scar.

This is the site of an old tin mine known as the Cornwall Pit. At roughly 265m (870ft) deep, the terraced wall of the pit represents a century’s worth of work that began in 1888 when a pound of tin was lifted out of a nearby creek. When the surface-metal was scoured from the landscape, methods changed eventually giving way to open-cut mining in the host pegmatite vein – an igneous rock with a coarse texture similar to granite.

In 1980, another metal was found at Greenbushes which, at the time, didn’t give the mine owners much pause for thought. Lithium, a soft, silvery-white reactive alkali metal, was considered more of a geological oddity.

A small-scale mining operation began in 1983, extracting lithium for use in niche industrial operations like glass making, steel, castings, ceramics, lubricants and metal alloys. It wasn’t until decades later when the existential risk posed by climate change became widely understood, and governments began talking about replacing the estimated 1.45 billion petrol cars worldwide with electric vehicles, that the reserves at Greenbushes began to be seen in a very different light.

Today the Cornwall tin pit is closed for business, and Greenbushes has become the largest lithium mine in the world.

Demand for lithium could grow to more than 40 times current levels if the world is to meet its Paris Agreement goals

In less than two years, prices for Australian spodumene – a lithium-rich raw material that can be refined for use in laptop, phone and EV batteries – has grown more than tenfold. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, spodumene sold for $4,994 (£4,300) a tonne in October 2022, up from $415 (£360) in January 2021. By 2040 the International Energy Agency expects demand for lithium to grow more than 40 times current levels if the world is to meet its Paris Agreement goals.

This has sparked claims of a new lithium-rush and Australia has positioned itself to be the world’s go-to supplier. Which begs the question, as the world reaches for this metal in an attempt to help with decarbonisation – how sustainable is lithium mining?

=In 2021, the lithium mined at Greenbushes alone accounted for more than a fifth of global production – and it is expected to grow. In 2019 the mine’s owners Talison Lithium received permission to double the site’s size in an A$1.9bn ($1.2bn/£1.1bn) expansion that, when complete, will cover an area 2.6km (1.6 miles) long, 1km (0.6 miles) wide and 455m (1,490ft) deep. At 310m (1,020ft) high, the tallest building in London, The Shard, could be comfortably buried inside.

While Greenbushes is Australia’s largest lithium mine, contributing 40% of the 55,000 tonnes of lithium mined in the country in 2021, there are several others close behind. In total, there are four other hard-rock lithium operations in Western Australia’s legacy mining regions around Kalgoorlie in the east and the Pilbara in the state’s far north. A sixth – the only lithium mine outside Western Australia – is an open-cut mine near Darwin in the Northern Territory, which began operation in early October 2022. Two other mines are in planning with other proposals at various stages of development.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221110-how-australia-became-the-worlds-greatest-lithium-supplier

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9. Ukraine Invasion Updated Map.

Russia only taking poor and working class as soldiers

The Daily Shot Blog Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at where are Russia’s newest soldiers coming from. 

Source: The Economist Read full article

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10. A brain expert shares his 7 ‘hard rules’ for boosting memory and fighting off dementia

Marc Milstein, Contributor@DRMARCMILSTEIN

SHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via Email

caracterdesign | Getty

The average human brain shrinks by approximately 5% per decade after the age of 40. This can have a major impact on memory and focus.

What’s more, brain disorders are on the rise. In 2020, 54 million people worldwide had Alzheimer’s disease or other dementias, and that number is expected to grow.

But serious mental decline doesn’t have to be an inevitable part of aging. In fact, certain lifestyle factors have a greater impact than your genes do on whether you’ll develop memory-related diseases.

As a neuroscience researcher, here are seven hard rules I live by to keep my brain sharp and fight off dementia.

1. Keep blood pressure and cholesterol levels in check

Your heart beats roughly 115,000 times a day, and with every beat, it sends about 20% of the oxygen in your body to your brain.

High blood pressure can weaken your heart muscle, and is one of the leading causes of strokes. Ideally, your blood pressure should be no higher than 120/80.

Cholesterol is critical to your brain and nervous system health, too. The American Heart Association recommends getting your cholesterol levels measured every four to six years.

2. Manage sugar levels

Blood sugar is the primary fuel of the brain. Not enough of it, and you have no energy; too much, and you can destroy blood vessels and tissue, leading to premature aging and cardiovascular disease.

Keep in mind that sugar isn’t enemy, excess sugar is. It’s easy for grams of sugar to add up, even if you think you’re being careful — and usually, sugar will sneak in through packaged foods.

Where is the sugar hidden? Look for these in the ingredients list:

·    Dextrose

·    Fructose

·    Galactose

·    Glucose

·    Lactose

·    Maltose

·    Sucrose

And be wary of any product that includes syrup, such as agave nectar syrup or high-fructose corn syrup.

3. Get quality sleep

Studies show that people with untreated sleep apnea raise their risk of memory loss by an average of 10 years before the general population.

For most people, a healthy brain needs somewhere between seven and nine hours of sleep a night.

My tips for memory-boosting, immune-enhancing sleep:

·    Keep a consistent bedtime and wake-up schedule.

·    Turn off devices one hour before bedtime.

·    Do something relaxing before bedtime, like listening to soft music or doing mindful breathing exercises.

·    Go outside and get in natural sunlight as soon as you can after waking up.

4. Eat a nutritious diet

One way I keep things simple is to have most, if not all, of these items in my grocery cart:

·    Fatty fish like salmon

·    Avocados

·    Nuts

·    Blueberries

·    Cruciferous veggies like arugula, broccoli, Brussels sprouts and collard greens

When food shopping, I ask myself three questions to help determine whether something is good for my brain:

1. Will it spoil? In many cases, perishable is a good thing. The additives and preservatives that keep food from spoiling wreak havoc on your gut bacteria.

2. Are there tons of ingredients in that packaged food? And for that matter, can you pronounce the ingredients? Or does it look like the makings of a chemical experiment? Also avoid anything where sugar is one of the first few ingredients.

3. Do you see a rainbow on your plate? The chemicals that give fruits and vegetables their vibrant colors help boost brain health.

5. Don’t smoke (and avoid secondhand and thirdhand smoke)

Smokers have a 30% higher risk of developing dementia than non-smokers. They also put those around them at risk: Secondhand smoke contains 7,000 chemicals — and at least 70 of them can cause cancer.

Then there’s thirdhand smoke, which is not actually smoke. It’s the residue of cigarette smoke that creates the telltale smell on clothing or in a room. That residue alone can emit chemicals that are toxic to the brain.

6. Make social connections

In a recent study, people over the age of 55 who regularly participated in dinner parties or other social events had a lower risk of losing their memory. But it wasn’t because of what they ate, it was the effect of the repeated social connection.

To lessen isolation and loneliness, you can also boost brain chemicals like serotonin and endorphins by performing small acts of kindness:

·    Wish others well or check in with somebody.

·    Give a compliment without expecting anything in return.

·    Make a phone call to somebody you don’t usually reach out to.

7. Continuously learn new skills

Maintaining a strong memory is not all about brain games like Sudoku, Wordle and crossword puzzles.

Learning skills and acquiring information are much more effective ways to make new connections in the brain. The more connections you make, the more likely you are to retain and even enhance your memory.

When you think about learning something new, approach it the way you would with fitness training. You want to work out different muscles on different days. The same goes for the brain.

Over the course of this week, try cross-training your brain by mixing mental activities (learning a new language or reading a book) and physical learning activities (playing tennis or soccer) .

Marc Milstein, PhD, is a brain health expert and author of “The Age-Proof Brain: New Strategies to Improve Memory, Protect Immunity, and Fight Off Dementia.” He earned both his PhD in Biological Chemistry and his Bachelor of Science in Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology from UCLA, and has conducted research on genetics, cancer biology and neuroscience. Follow him on Twitter and Instagram.

A brain expert shares his 7 ‘hard rules’ for boosting memory and fighting off dementia (cnbc.com)

1. Biggest One Day Decline of 10 Year Yield Since GFC

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank -After last week’s downside surprise in US CPI, we saw some of the biggest daily market moves in years. In fact, as today’s chart of the day points out, the daily decline in the 10yr real Treasury yield on Thursday was the second-largest since the GFC and behind only the initial Covid move in March 2020.

 

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2. Wisdom Tree Weekly from Jeremy Siegel.

If CPI used up to date housing data…core inflation would be zero

https://www.wisdomtree.com/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/weekly-commentary/siegel-weekly-commentary.pdf

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3. Lumber at 25 Year Low

From Trading Economics Lumber 25 Year Low

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

www.stockcharts.com

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4. Follow Up on Dollar Technical Breakdown Last Week….All International Charts on Watch List

EFA Developed International vs. S&P…Will it Bottom?

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5. Barrons Stat on Tech Historical Bear Market Rallies

BTIG in Barrons For example, the Nasdaq 100NDX +1.82%  (NDX) gained 7.49%. Of the 20 largest NDX daily gains since 1990, 16 of them happened either between April 2000 and May 2002, or in October 2008, none of which marked the end of those bear markets

Stocks Rallied Dramatically. It’s Still a Bear Market | Barron’s (barrons.com)

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6. Non-Profit Tech Led the Rally Last Week

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7. Coffe Prices Go On List of Falling from Highs.

www.stockcharts.com

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8. ‘FTX Has Been Hacked’: Crypto Disaster Worsens as Exchange Sees Mysterious Outflows Exceeding $600M

FTX officials appeared to confirm rumors of a hack on Telegram, instructing users to delete FTX apps and avoid its website.

By Cheyenne Ligon, Sam Reynolds, Sam Kessler, Nikhilesh De, Reilly Decker

FTX bought the naming rights to the Miami Heat arena in March 2021. (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk archives)

The collapse of FTX, already one of the most spectacular disasters in financial history, worsened as hundreds of millions of dollars were drained from the cryptocurrency exchange hours after it filed for bankruptcy.

More than $600 million was siphoned from FTX’s crypto wallets late Friday. Soon after, FTX stated in its official Telegram channel that it had been compromised, instructing users not to install any new upgrades and to delete all FTX apps.

“FTX has been hacked. FTX apps are malware. Delete them. Chat is open. Don’t go on FTX site as it might download Trojans,” wrote an account administrator in the FTX Support Telegram chat. The message was pinned by FTX General Counsel Ryne Miller.

Hours later, Miller disclosed in a tweet that FTX US and FTX.com had been moving all their digital assets to cold storage because of the Friday bankruptcy. “Process was expedited this evening – to mitigate damage upon observing unauthorized transactions,” he said.

Many FTX wallet holders reported $0 balances in their FTX.com and FTX US wallets. FTX’s API appeared to be down, which could account for this. According to on-chain data, various Ethereum tokens as well as Solana and Binance Smart Chain tokens exited FTX’s official wallets and moved to decentralized exchanges like 1inch. Both FTX and FTX US appear to be affected.

The transfers occurred on the same day that the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. after apparently losing – or misappropriating – billions of dollars in user funds. Suspicions – which are conjecture at this point – circulated online about whether, rather than an outside attack, someone inside the company might’ve been responsible.

On Twitter, members of the cryptocurrency community quickly began to speculate that the outflows could have been coordinated by a member of Bankman-Fried’s inner circle, pointing out that the simultaneous and sophisticated hacks of FTX and FTX US are indicative of a potential inside job. Twitter sleuth ZachXBT tweeted Friday night that “multiple former FTX employees confirmed to me that they do not recognize these transfers.”

Around midnight Eastern time, FTX’s login portal was unavailable (though the site was still online) giving users a 503 error when they attempted to log in. A 503 error happens when the server is unavailable, commonly because it’s down for maintenance or unavailable for access.

‘FTX Has Been Hacked’: Crypto Disaster Worsens as Exchange Sees Mysterious Outflows Exceeding $600M (coindesk.com)

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9. We Shall See…..

FTX’s bust and crypto crash come with two silver linings

Brian Sozzi. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Read this and more market news on the go with Yahoo Finance App.

Let’s look at the bright side of the FTX-driven crypto crash to kick off what will likely be another long week for the industry.

There are probably two positives worth considering here.

First, the crypto crash has not spread over into the stock market. The S&P 500 is up 5.9% in the past five trading sessions compared with a 19% drop for bitcoin. Why is this you ask? Simple. The rout is not as huge as the headlines suggest.

“We think Bitcoin and ETH remain a too small part of the market to cause broader financial market contagion, with a total crypto market cap size of $890 billion vs $41 trillion for U.S. equities,” Citigroup digital asset analyst Joseph Ayoub said in a note to clients. “The FTX shortfall is still relatively small in comparison to other crypto events, such as Luna ($40 billion lost) or market cap losses in public tech names.”

So there’s that.

And two, what has happened with FTX should ultimately set the groundwork for a more stable crypto market over time (hopefully). Maybe that means less booms and busts, which is a positive for investors. There are a couple reasons for that, such as regulators coming in next year with new guardrails and the washout removing froth (maybe fewer crypto events in the Bahamas with Lambos parked outside for the Gram) and bad actors (we’re looking at you, SBF).

What we have witnessed in the past week is a flush out and it’s all good — even if there is pain to be had today.

“This should be a wake-up call that what you thought was worth something is actually not worth anything,” said Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev on Yahoo Finance Live.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ft-xs-bust-and-crypto-crash-come-with-two-silver-linings-103045894.html

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10. 10 Signs Your Employees Aren’t the Right Fit For Their Jobs

Find the job that’s right for you.

BY LAURA GARNETT, PERFORMANCE STRATEGIST AND AUTHOR, THE GENIUS HABIT@GARNETTL

Hiring the right talent and helping those people thrive in their positions is one of the biggest challenges any leader, CEO, or founder has, especially since job hopping has become the norm. You not only need to find incredibly smart people, you also need to make sure they stick around, rather than jump to the next best thing around the corner. 

The single most important key to this is to make sure that your people are in the right roles for who they are. Often, performance issues are misdiagnosed. If you have someone on your team who’s not working enough, who isn’t performing the way that they should, or who seems bored and disengaged, the issue isn’t always a matter of that person’s ability. Sometimes, it’s a matter of fit. If a job isn’t aligned with someone’s strengths, values, and personality-;it’s pretty impossible for them to succeed. 

How can you tell whether your employees are in the right roles? It’s often incredibly subtle, so you need to pay attention. For starters, look for these 10 signs. 

1. They are often bored or disengaged, and you regularly get the sense that their head isn’t in the game.
2. They just can’t master the tasks they’re assigned, despite lots of feedback as to how to do them better or differently.
3. They often don’t share their ideas with you or other colleagues. Or, when they do, what they have to offer feels completely off base and unhelpful.
4. They seem to be struggling with confidence. They rarely participate in group discussions or share their perspective with others.
5. You can visibly notice that they get frustrated easily.
6. What is needed for them to perform does not seem to be aligned with their personality or strengths.
7. You’ve had a sneaking feeling for a while that something just isn’t working.
8. They communicate that they don’t feel valued, despite feeling that you’ve done everything you can to make them feel valued.
9. Despite efforts to provide feedback, coaching, and support, their performance doesn’t shift.
10. They’ve approached you saying that they aren’t happy with the work they’re doing or that they would like a different role.

If you see several of these signs in one of your employees, it’s time to make a change. Navigating transitions are always difficult, but know that you can start the conversation with empathy and compassion. 

When you realize that someone on your team isn’t in the right role, ask them to tell you more about who they are, what they’re best at, and what they ultimately want out of their career. It could be that there is another place in the business that they could contribute to that would be a better fit for both of you. 

Or, if not, then knowing that they aren’t right for your company is a great thing. It won’t only be good for your business, it’ll ultimately be a positive shift for that person’s career. After all, no one wants-;or can succeed at-;a job that isn’t the right fit for them.

https://www.inc.com/laura-garnett/10-signs-your-employees-arent-right-fit-for-their-jobs.html?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=freeform

1. Ten-Year Treasury Yield Broke Above Trend Line from 1982

The red line in chart is trendline going back to 1982….See X’s breaking above

www.stockcharts.com

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2. Dollar Breaks 50day on downside and Copper Makes Run at upside 200day….China is 70% of Copper Demand

www.stockcharts.com

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3. Two Cali Gambling Votes Fail to Pass

Geoff Zochodne Covers.com As of around 8:00 a.m. E.T. on Wednesday, results showed that both Proposition 26 and Proposition 27 had been defeated. With 94.5% of precincts partially reporting, Prop 26 had been approved by 29.9% of voters, while Prop 27 had only 16.6% support, meaning both were well short of the 50% they needed.

Prop 26 aimed to bring in-person sports betting to racetracks and Native American casinos in California. Prop 27, meanwhile, would have permitted statewide online sports betting via tribes and licensed gambling companies.

https://www.covers.com/industry/us-midterm-election-sports-betting-ballot-results-november-2022

Dow Jones Gambling Index -50% Correction from Highs

www.stockcharts.com

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4. CPI Shelter 40% of Inflation Numbers

Charlie Bilello But CPI Shelter continues to be a lagging indicator, as the real-time housing data has been moving in the opposite direction…

a) Rents are up 5.8% year-over-year, the smallest rate of increase since May 2021.

​b) Home prices are up 3.2% year-over-year, their slowest growth rate since the start of the pandemic.

​At some point, Shelter CPI will start reflecting this new data, but we don’t appear to be there just yet. There remains a considerable gap between reported and actual housing inflation that will likely be closed in part by continued increases in Shelter CPI.

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5. Employment Cost Index Rolling Over.

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6. Diesal Fuel Below Highs but Still Up Over 100% Since 2021

Y Charts

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_retail_diesel_price

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7. Japan Equities 2022 Currency Hedged vs Unhedged Year to Date Massive Spread

DXJ Hedged vs. EWJ Unhedged

www.yahoofinance.com

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8. Financial Sector ETF +20% in One Month

Bespoke The Financial sector ETF (XLF) has been on fire since its intraday low of $29.59 on October 13th, which was the day of the hotter than expected September CPI report.  From that low point on 10/13, XLF is up 20.2%.  As shown below, the ETF is currently at the very top end of a wide sideways range that has been in place over the last six months.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/banks-and-brokers-on-fire

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9. Three Million World Cup Tickets Sold

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10. Discipline is Often a Carefully Created Environment

Tiny Thought-Farnam Street

Eventually, everyone loses the battle with willpower; it’s only a matter of time. Consider my parents. Neither of them smoked when they joined the armed forces, but it didn’t take long for them to join their smoking co-workers. At first, they resisted, but as the days turned into weeks, the grind of saying no when everyone else was saying yes wore them down. Decades later, quitting proved nearly impossible when they turned to willpower. Everyone around them smoked. The very same force that encouraged them to start was preventing them from stopping. They were only able to kick their habit when they changed their environment. They had to find new friends whose default behavior was their desired behavior.

What looks like discipline is often a carefully created environment to encourage certain behaviors. What looks like poor choices is often someone trying their best to use willpower to go against their environment.

The people with the best defaults are typically the ones with the best environment. Sometimes it’s carefully chosen, and sometimes it’s just plain luck. Either way, it’s easier to align yourself with the right behavior in the right environment.

The way to improve your defaults isn’t by willpower but by creating an artificial environment where your desired behavior becomes the default behavior.

Joining groups whose defaults are your desires is an effective way to create an artificial environment. If you want to read more, join a book club. If you want to run more, join a running club. If you want to exercise more, hire a trainer.

Your environment will do a lot of the heavy lifting for you if you align it with where you want to go.

https://fs.blog