1. It’s Not 1999 Yet.

Nick Maggiulli—Of Dollars and Data Blog

Markets often rhyme but rarely repeat

With the many eye-popping valuations of various technology IPOs in 2020, it can feel a bit reminiscent of 1999.  And while stock prices might be high, 2020 is no 1999.  Just take a look at the growth in the NASDAQ from 1995-1999 compared to 2016-2020 and you will see that it’s night and day:

This chart illustrates that there is a big difference between “bubble” and “BUBBLE.”  As my colleague Michael Batnick recently argued:

I don’t think the stock market is in a bubble, but it’s surrounded by them.  

Though we aren’t in 1999, some investors definitely are.  Markets often rhyme but rarely repeat.  

1. Small Trader Call Buying Exceeded 9% of Total NYSE Volume Last Week

SentimentTrader didn’t think traders could get any more speculative than they were at the end of August.  “We were wrong – For the first time, small trader call buying (adjusted for equivalent shares) exceeded 9% of total NYSE volume last week”

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

1. Shipping Prices Huge Spike

Holger Zschaepitz

A headwind for the global economy: Shipping goods gets prices amid higher demand and a shrinking pool of empty boxes. Costly containers adding to general supply chain shocks due to pandemic, threatening to stifle already weakened globalization, BBG reports.

1. Best Performers 2021 -Decile of Stocks with the Highest Short Interest

Heavily Shorted Stocks Stand Tall in 2021-In the chart below, we show the average YTD performance of Russell 3000 stocks broken into deciles based on their short interest.  The decile of stocks with the highest short interest as a percentage of float have by far been the best performers YTD, up for an average of 14.16%.  Even excluding GME, the decile’s average YTD performance is a 13.93% gain.  As you move across the deciles with lower short interest levels, performance gets worse. The tenth decile of stocks which consists of stocks with average short interest levels below 1% of float has only risen 3.6% on average.

1. Plug power stock chart–doubled in 6 days 

Plug Power Chart Below $5 to $65