Topley’s Top Ten – May 17, 2018

1.Recession Timing After Economy Hits Full Employment.


2.S&P Hits 200 day 3x  During Recent Volatility.          

3.The Death Cross 50 day thru 200 day Has Historical Significance in Momentum Stocks.

The death-cross indicator works best, however, when applied to the market’s best-performing, or momentum, stocks. Momentum stocks historically have averaged a nearly 6% decline in the month following a death cross, and a tumble of more than 30% over the following 12 months. Which makes sense. “Momentum by its nature is a trend-following strategy,” Luo says. “Put [momentum and the crosses] together, and they work well.”

Trader Extra: “SeaWorld Makes A Splash”
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Death Cross Takes a Holiday

4. Institutions Moving to Cash…Contra-Indicator?

Institutional investors have been moving into money markets.

Source: Deutsche Bank, @tracyalloway

5.REIT Index Down 17% From Peak.






Full Read Below

6.The Dollar is Following Rates Higher.

TNX 10 Year Yield and UUP Dollar Bull ETF Moving Higher Together.

7.Euro Weakens Falls  Back to 2017 Lows.

Euro Weakness Contributing to German GDP Slowdown.

German Economy Stumbles as Europe Suffers Setback in Growth

Piotr Skolimowski
May 15, 2018, 2:12 AM EDT Updated on May 15, 2018, 7:34 AM EDT

Portuguese, Dutch, German GDP all fall short of forecasts

ECB stresses temporary nature of weaker euro-area expansion


8.  Here’s a little Econ 101 for you: Sanctions really work—just ask Iran. Only a week after the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear deal and reimposed heavy sanctions on the country, we’re already seeing some fallout.

  • Meet Total, a French oil and gas giant: It’s pulling the plug on its $2 billion investment in Iran’s South Pars gas project.
  • Why? “Total has always been clear that it cannot afford to be exposed to any secondary sanction.”

That means it won’t risk bumping heads with the U.S.

U.S. banks provide 90% of Total’s financing, 30% of Total’s shareholders are U.S.-based, and the U.S. is home to $10 billion worth of Total’s assets.

Bottom line: If you do business with Iran, you’re effectively cut off from the American financial system. So expect more European companies to rethink their engagements with Iran.

9.As U.S. Small Cap Hits New Highs Frontier Markets Pullback to Feb. Lows.

FRN Frontier Markets ETF…

10. 5 Powerfully Essential Questions Every Leader Should Always Ask Themselves (and Their Team Too)

The best leaders reach out to their people for clarity and positive changes. These questions are a great way to begin that conversation.

By Peter EconomyThe Leadership Guy@bizzwriter

Anyone who owns a business is aware that there are thousands of books and opinions out there regarding how to help make your business become successful. Management guru Peter Drucker wrote a 100 page book titled, “The Five Most Important Questions You Will Ever Ask About Your Organization.” In this short but enlightening book, Drucker shared everything he believed anyone needed to know about how to lead an organization and be successful in their business endeavors.

Take some time to ask your employees these crucial questions and allow them to freely answer and offer their thoughts on each one. You may find that by answering these questions together you could open up a totally new view of what is important and a much stronger focus that could positively change the future of your business.

  1. What is your mission?

Every business needs a reason to be, and this is most often encapsulated in a concisely-worded mission statement. This shouldn’t be an elaborate document that you file away in a drawer somewhere, but one that your organization and your people live by every day of the week. Says Drucker, “The effective mission statement is short and sharply focused. It should fit on a T-shirt. The mission says why you do what you do, not the means by which you do it.”

  1. What is your plan? 

Given how quickly everything changes today, it’s more important to have a plan than ever before. For a plan to be effective, it should comprise certain elements. According to Drucker, “A plan … is a concise summation of the organization’s purpose and future direction. The plan encompasses mission, vision, goals, objectives, action steps, a budget, and appraisal.” If you or your team can’t answer this question, you won’t know where you’re going or how you’re getting there.

  1. What are your results? 

Every initiative you undertake will have results, which will need to be collected and reviewed. Says Drucker, “Progress and achievement can be appraised in qualitative and quantitative terms. These two types of measures are interwoven — they shed light on one another — and both are necessary to illuminate in what ways and to what extent lives are being changed.” You and your team should make sure you know not just what your results are, but how you can evaluate them.

  1. Who is your customer? 

In many cases, a company’s leaders are uncertain about whom, exactly, their customers are. And even if they have some idea, these leaders fail to make their customers the primary focus of their attention. According to Drucker, “Answering the question ‘Who is our customer?’ provides the basis for determining what customer’s value, defining your results, and developing the plan.” Once you figure out who your customers are, then focus your efforts on satisfying their needs.

  1. What does your customer value?

The natural next step is to figure out what it is that your customer values and what they’re willing to pay for. However, this may not be an easy question to answer. Drucker writes, “The question ‘What do customers value?’ — what satisfies their needs, wants, and aspiration — is so complicated that it can only be answered by customers themselves.” While this may be the most important of the five questions, he says, it’s also the one that businesses most often fail to ask themselves.