Topley’s Top 10 – September 7, 2023

1. August Saw A Lot of Selling at the Close of Market Day

2. Crude Oil Rally Still Well Below 2022 Highs

Light Crude Oil Chart Held 200 Week Moving Average…Coming up on next resistance level

3. Energy Prices Up and Airlines Down

JETS corrects back to Spring levels with rise in crude oil

4. Recessions and Bonds….Long-Bond Lost Decade

@Callum_Thomas Recession Realities: But one thing I have to keep coming back to is the tyranny of the stats — historically treasuries put in their best performance, and stock-beating performance during recessions. I would note, you don’t need a recession for bonds to do ok, but you do need a recession for bonds to do spectacular (hence why bonds are often referred to as diversifying assets… at least outside of inflationary shocks!).

Source: @callieabost

Treasury Troubles: In real (CPI adjusted) total return terms, long-term US treasuries have seen a lost decade, and a catastrophic -50% drawdown off the peak in mid-2020 (p.s. for anyone who’s new to bonds remember: yields up = price down). Essentially this is what happens when an otherwise safe and conservative asset meets an inflation (+ monetary policy) shock.