Topley’s Top 10 – July 31, 2023

1. Oil Prices +14% One-Month

2. Gasoline One-Week Gain

3. Amazon Reports this Week

AMZN sitting right below 200-week moving average on long-term chart….Still $50 from highs.

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4. Fed Funds Rate Highest Since 2001


5. FRDM Freedom 100 Emerging Markets

FRDM outperformance (No China) versus traditional emerging market index….Chart is FRDM vs. EEM

6. World’s Leading Economic Power-U.S. vs. China

Asian Countries Largely Favor U.S. as Leading Economic Power.

Japan 64-22 for U.S.

India   53-14 for U.S.

S.Korea 83-8 for U.S.

From Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog

7. Hedge Funds Giving Up on China

The Daily Shot Brief China: Hedge funds have been cutting their exposure.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook

8. U.S. Leading World in AI Investments

Capital Group

Capital Group

9. 1 in 4 U.S. homebuyers want to move to a different city—here’s the No. 1 place they’re looking


With mortgage rates at 20-year highs, more people are looking to relocate from high-cost coastal cities to places in the South and Southwest, with Las Vegas as the top destination.

Nearly 26% of property search queries on online real estate brokerage are for cities where potential homebuyers don’t live, based on data for the three months ending June 2023.That’s the highest percentage since 2017, when Redfin first started tracking migration data.

Homeownership costs seem to be driving the trend, as the majority of homebuyers are from cities with some of the highest home prices in the country, such as New York or Los Angeles.

Based on an analysis of 100 metro areas, the following 10 cities had the highest net inflow of property searches on Redfin’s website. Net inflow is the number of people looking to move into a city minus the number of people looking to leave. 

1.               Las Vegas: 5,700

2.               Phoenix:5,300

3.               Tampa, Florida:5,000

4.               Orlando, Florida: 4,900

5.               Sacramento, California: 4,800

6.               North Port-Sarasota, Florida: 4,700

7.               Cape Coral, Florida: 4,100

8.               Dallas:4,100

9.               Miami: 3,700

10.            Houston:3,600

For all cities on this list, the largest number of potential out-of-town homebuyers are from either Los Angeles, Seattle, New York or Chicago, according to the study. This makes sense, as those are some of the cities where the most homebuyers seemingly want to leave.

Here are the 10 metros with the largest net outflow of property searches, which measures the number of search queries interested in leaving a metro area minus the number of search queries about moving to that same city.

1.               San Francisco: 28,100

2.               New York City: 24,200

3.               Los Angeles: 20,900

4.               Washington, D.C.: 15,700

5.               Chicago: 4,900

6.               Boston: 4,400

7.               Seattle:3,900

8.               Hartford, Connecticut: 3,500

9.               Denver: 2,300

10.            Detroit: 2,300

The search patterns suggest homebuyers are looking to leave large coastal hubs for cities in low-tax states that have considerably cheaper home prices.

For instance, most out-of-town buyers looking for properties in Las Vegas are from Los Angeles. The median cost of a home in Las Vegas is $412,500 as of June, nearly half the $975,000 median cost for homes in Los Angeles, according to Redfin’s data.

For the purposes of the study, a person browsing Redfin counts as a migrant if they’ve viewed 10 properties in another city over the three months ending June 2023. The net inflow and outflow rankings were compiled based on the total number of migrants.

10. Farnam Street -Clear Thinking

Tiny Thought

Contrary to what we’re led to believe, clear thinking is often the result of the position you are in at the time of the decision. 

Even a genius looks ordinary if circumstances force them into a bad position. 

The best position themselves to win before the game even starts. Tom Brady couldn’t show up on Sunday and perform if he didn’t put in the reps first. By studying film, eating healthy, stretching, and practicing, he puts himself in a position to win. It’s not just sports, the best in business do the same thing. 

An underrated element of doing your best is the position you are in when you need to perform. 

History is littered with successful people who positioned themselves to win and took advantage of the storm. 

You can position yourself to win no matter the circumstances. There is always something you can do to improve your current position. 

Eating well, saving money, sleeping, preparing for your next job, taking on more responsibility at work, removing people from your life who drag you down, reading and learning, etc. 

When you master your circumstances, every path is a winner. When your circumstances master you, things quickly go from bad to worse. 

Over a long enough time horizon, positioning beats predicting. 

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