TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 20, 2024

1. Nasdaq Took 15 Years to Recover from the Internet Bubble

The Nasdaq actually went 15 years without hitting an all-time high (from 2000 to 2015), a drought that would be unfathomable to new investors today.


2. MU -45% from Highs


3. 3rd Biggest One Day VIX Surge Ever on Wednesday

Tom Lee Fundstrat mentions what is notable is how quickly markets recovered from these sell-offs:
– 3 of 4 times, the S&P 500 fully recover within a week
– Jan 2021, Feb 2018, Aug 2024. 
– 4 of 4 times, fully recovered within a month

Via fundstrat


4. The Fear and Greed Index

Via CNN Markets


5. XLE Energy ETF -13% One Month

XLE breaking through September lows.


6. The Average S&P 500 Stock is now Down since the Election

Per Sherwood News: That escalated quickly.

The hawkish body language from the Federal Reserve — despite delivering a rate cut — hammered the markets Wednesday. 

The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 had their second-worst days of the year, while the small cap Russell 2000 suffered its largest decline of 2024. 

The force of the sell-off was such that now some key market gauges are actually underwater since Nov. 5. Of course, that’s when President-elect Donald J. Trump’s election win generated a strong stock market reaction from investors excited by the prospect of both tax cuts and regulatory relaxation, which might provide a bit more pep for the domestic economy.

Today, the Trump bump is looking more like a hump verging on a potential slump as the US central bank grows more worried about inflation, though of course he isn’t even in office yet. 

Of note: The equal-weighted edition of the S&P 500 is now down since election day. That is, the average member of the benchmark US stock index is worth less than it was on November 5.


7. Novo Nordisk -27% After New Weight Loss Data Released

Via Bloomberg


8. U.S. Population Growth

Via Wolf Street


9. Man Admits to Running Secret Chinese ‘Police Station’ in NYC

From the BBC: Prosecutors say the outpost at Manhattan’s Chinatown was used to help Beijing identify pro-democracy activists in the US

An American citizen has pleaded guilty to helping run what has been described as the first known secret police station in the US on behalf of the Chinese government. 

Prosecutors say Chen Jinping and his co-defendent Lu Jianwang opened and operated the station in Manhattan’s Chinatown neighbourhood in early 2022 on behalf of China’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS). 

At least 100 such stations have been reported worldwide across 53 countries, with rights groups accusing China of using the outposts to threaten and monitor Chinese nationals abroad.

But China has denied that they are police stations, saying they are “service stations” providing administrative services to nationals overseas.

The outpost, which occupied an entire floor above a ramen stall, did provide basic services like renewing Chinese citizens’ driver licenses, but it also helped Beijing identify pro-democracy activists living in the US, say federal authorities. 

Matthew Olsen, an assistant attorney general in the US Department of Justice, called the attempt to operate the undeclared overseas police station “a clear affront to American sovereignty and danger to our community that will not be tolerated”. 

The station was closed in the autumn of 2022 after the Federal Investigation Bureau launched an investigation. 

But Chen and Lu destroyed text messages they exchanged with an MPS official when they learned of the probe, prosecutors said.

The men, who are both American citizens, were arrested in April last year

On Wednesday, Chen, 60, pleaded guilty to conspiring to act as an agent for China, and faces up to five years in prison when he is sentenced next year. 

Chen’s acknowledgement of guilt is a “stark reminder of insidious efforts taken by the [Chinese] government to threaten, harass, and intimidate those who speak against their Communist Party,” Robert Wells, an executive assistant director of the FBI’s National Security Branch said in a statement. 

Lu, 59, has pleaded not guilty and is awaiting trial. Prosecutors have accused him of harassing a purported Chinese fugitive to return to China and for helping to locate a pro-democracy activist in California on behalf of the Communist Party.

At the time of Chen’s arrest, authorities said it marked the first time the US has brought criminal charges in relation to such police outposts.

Mr Olsen said US authorities would “continue to pursue anyone who attempts to aid the PRC’s efforts to extend their repressive reach into the United States”.

In September, Linda Sun, a former aide in the New York governor’s office, was charged with using her position to serve Chinese government interests. She was said to have received benefits, including travel, in return.

Last year, 34 officers from the MPS were also charged with using fake social media accounts to harass Chinese dissidents in the US and spread official Chinese government propaganda.


10. The Stories We Tell Ourselves

From Seth Godin: If it happened to us, our memory of it is a story, our record of it with us at the center.

Even if it’s on video, even if other people were there, our narrative and the context and the play by play belong to us.

The useful question might be: “Is my story helpful?”

And the follow on could be: “Is there any other version of this story that might be more helpful?”