1. Anthropic and OpenAI Growth Rate Since 2023
Frontier lab growth. Anthropic and OpenAI’s “growth rates have been both extremely rapid and remarkably robust since 2023: together, they tripled in 2024, and then grew more than fourfold in 2025. And this year they’ve already grown by 3.5x … these labs are growing faster from a higher baseline.”
DAILY CHARTBOOK
2. Since ChapGPT Launch NVDA Hasn’t Missed
In fact, since ChatGPT launched in November of 2022, Nvidia hasn’t missed estimates once.
fiscal
3. AI Data Center Build Out–Private Equity Deal Making in Building Trades
AI data center boom sends PE into the trades
Private equity is following the AI data center boom into the trades that build and equip facilities.
PE activity in construction and engineering hit a record 529 deals in the second quarter, up 56.5% from a year earlier, according to estimates in PitchBook’s Q2 Construction and Engineering report. Deal value slipped slightly from the prior quarter as investors prioritized smaller deals over marquee platforms.
Dealmaking has concentrated in specialty trades needed for site work, electrification and cooling.
PitchBook
4. Earnings Growth vs. Off Balance Sheet Debt
As a result, Morgan Stanley projects free cash flow to turn negative for Amazon and Google in 2026 and for Meta as soon as next quarter, even as reported earnings remain strong. In sum, the massive AI buildout is increasingly being funded through leases, contractual commitments, and debt rather than internally generated cash flow, highlighting the growing financial
Zach Goldberg Jefferies
5. September Seasonality
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Tomorrow brings a new month – Here’s what the average September looks like since 1950 for the S&P 500. Things are ok early, but by Talk Like a Pirate Day (September 19th) is when the trouble starts.
6. Biotech 2026
Chart of the Day
Biotech is having a year. (chart via YCharts) (ft.com)
Abnormal Returns
7. DJT Trump Media Stock Update…No Bounce
8. U.S. Workers Wages Below Inflation
9. College QB’s vs. NFL QB’s
Front Office Sports
10. The Global Sleep Economy is $585M
- Sleep Monitoring Apps Market size is expected to be worth around USD 17523.7 Million by 2033 from USD 3376.7 Million in 2023.
- In 2024, the global sleep economy reached USD 585 billion.
- As of 2019, 80% of adults across select countries desired to improve their sleep quality.
- As of 2020, 67% of adults in India were satisfied with their sleep, the highest among countries.
- As of 2020, 35% of respondents used television to unwind, 26% had used it before, and 39%never used it.
- In 2020, 14.5% of adults in the United States reported having trouble falling asleep most days or every day in the past 30 days.
- In 2018, the majority of people across India believed they were getting enough sleep, with 68%of respondents agreeing with the statement.
- In 2022, 21% of U.S. adults used open windows or air conditioning as a sleep aid.
Media Market.us
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