Topley’s Top 10 – April 24, 2023

1. From Charlie Bilello…The Spread Between 3 Month and 1 Month Treasury Yields Highest Ever

The spread between 3-month (5.14%) and 1-month (3.36%) Treasury yields has never been higher: 1.78%.

What’s going on here? There a number of theories going around, but the one that’s gaining the most traction seems to be concerns about a US debt default due to the debt ceiling…

The cost to insure against a US debt default has risen to 90 bps, a record high.

Is the US actually going to default in the next few months? Of course not. They’ll raise the debt ceiling and borrow more money like they always do.

2. At the Same Time…Bond Volatility Index MOVE Dropped from $200 to $120

3. Mortgage Debt as a % of GDP vs. 2008

JP Morgan Private Bank

3. XRT S&P Retail ETF Sideways for One Year.

XRT $100 to $57 in sell off now sideways pattern…

4. S&P vs. Biotech

5 Year Chart S&P +55% vs. XBI Biotech -7%

6. S&P Returns Compared to CPI Levels.

Schwab -Liz Ann Sonders

7. Central Bank Gold Purchases Hit Highest Since 1967


8. Downtown San Fran Cellphone Activity at 31% of Pre-Pandemic Levels.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist Apollo, Partner Data from downtowns show that cellphone activity in San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels, see chart below. New York is at 74% and Chicago is at 50% of 2019 levels. Boston is at 54% of pre-pandemic levels. This has implications for retail, restaurants, and office.

9. Median Household by Ethnic Group.

10. WSJ on Happy People.

Good morning. What do very happy people have in common? The Wall Street Journal followed up with the 12% of respondents in a WSJ-NORC survey who called themselves “very happy”  and asked them what they were all about. Here are the traits they share.

  • Companionship: 67% of the happiest people said that marriage was very important to them, compared to 43% of overall respondents.
  • Religion: Two-thirds of very happy people characterized themselves as moderately or very religious. The overall share: less than half.
  • Closer to death: People 60 and over accounted for 44% of the happiest group, but represented 30% of total survey respondents.
  • Gym rats: Fitness was a common interest among very happy people.

What doesn’t seem to matter to being very happy? Political party affiliation or avoiding following politics.

Neal Freyman