TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 23, 2025

1. History of Small Cap During Similar Rate Cuts by Fed

Dorsey Wright When the Federal Reserve has implemented interest rate cuts spaced more than 100 days apart since 1990, historical returns indicate that small-cap equities, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), deliver strong forward returns. Although near-term returns (1–3 months) are often muted, IWM’s average returns are 16% at one year and 32.7% at two years, as shown in the table below. For investors aiming to diversify beyond the S&P 500 (SPX), IWM presents an opportunity to gain exposure in a different areas within U.S. equities.

NASDAQ DORSEY WRIGHT


2. Goldman Sachs Retail Favorite Buy Stocks…Record Consecutive Days of Gains

Sherwood News

Sherwood


3. Tech is Dependent on H-1B Visas…Majority from India

CNBC


4. 40-50% of Venture Funds Suffering a Loss Relative to NAV

PitchBook


5. PYPL has Reduced its Share Count by 1/5 in 5 Years

Koyfin


6. U.S. Dollar to Swiss Franc Trades Down to 2023 Lows

StockCharts


7. American Imports From China 21% to 9% Less than 10 Years

Semafor


8. Chinese Made EVs Big Market Share Gains in Asia

WSJ


9. Fantastic 4 Movie 3200 Employees?? Prof G

PROF G MEDIA


10. Brain Health and Mental Capacity Depend on Physical Activity

Our executive and emotional skills remain connected to activity by evolution. Sarah Gingell Ph.D.

Key points

  • The evolution of adaptations for physical activity and cognitive and emotional skills are intertwined.
  • Physical activity remains a key driver of brain health, while inactivity reduces cognitive resources.
  • This “evolutionary bug” has revealed itself only as sedentary lifestyles have become possible.

Nowadays, no one seriously doubts that physical activity improves our physical health, along with our mental health and cognitive abilities.

Physically active children perform better in school, achieving better academic outcomes than less active children. Active kids also typically have better mental health, with improved self-esteem, social confidence, and emotional regulation, and lower levels of stressanxiety, and depression. Sedentary adults who start exercising show improvements in attentionmemory, and thinking skills, in addition to improved mood and mental health conditions such as depression. Older adults who have been physically active throughout their lives tend to have higher physical and mental well-being, lower levels of neurodegenerative conditions, and retain sharper minds.

But have you ever wondered why?

We are familiar with the idea that our bodies adapt to functional demands. When we are new to running, we are initially unable to meet our muscles’ increased oxygen demand. However, with continued training, new blood vessels develop to supply more oxygen-laden red blood cells, and we breathe more easily. Muscles and bones would grow stronger, the lungs would become more efficient, and many other metabolic and energy management adaptations would occur.

It is often assumed that exercise improves brain health only as a beneficial side effect of these adaptive bodily changes. For example, better cardiovascular function increases cerebral blood flow, enhancing oxygen and nutrient delivery to better support the health of brain cells. However, recent research is clear that many of the exercise-related chemical factors produced by the muscles, bones, liver, and other tissues also target the brain directly. Some of these “exerkines” and metabolites might one day form part of an ‘exercise pill’ to protect brain health.

Why does our brain respond to physical activity in such a direct way?

The fascinating answer may date to around 2 million years ago, when our ancestors descended from the trees and developed skills to move and survive on the ground. The neuroscientist and anthropologist David Raichlen argues persuasively that “we evolved to be cognitively-engaged endurance athletes.”

As early humans developed physical adaptations for walking, running, and aerobic activity, they also developed skills for hunting and foraging. Foraging and persistence hunting—which could involve tailing animals for days—requires planning, organisation, and focus. We recognise these skills in our modern “executive functions” of working memory, cognitive flexibility, and self-control. Physical endurance also depended on constructively managing exhaustion, fear, and anxiety, flexibly responding to setbacks, maintaining focus, not giving up, and so on, all key aspects of emotional regulation.

What began as neural circuits for reflexive movement control gradually expanded through evolution in humans into systems in the prefrontal cortex, cerebellum, and basal ganglia that support flexible activity, abstract thought, and behavioural regulation. Early humans’ evolutionarily adaptive responses to the physical and mental demands of hunting and foraging developed in tandem, and remain intertwined in our modern brains.

This might explain how brain systems evolved, but not why day-to-day physical activity remains so important to the brain health of modern man.

Gerd Kempermann has argued that for our ancestors, being on the move was likely to be associated with mental challenges. Responses to physical activity prime neurons for possible learning, through neuroplastic changes that allow neurons to form new connections or reorganise existing connections to record learning. These connections can then be utilised and stabilised by cognitive and emotional tasks, so that repeated pairing of physical and mental tasks builds brain capacity.

But here’s the kicker.

Because movement wasn’t optional for our ancestors to survive and did not need to be encouraged, evolutionary pressures favoured energy conservation when possible.

This means that we lose energy-consuming capacity when it is not needed.

We are familiar with the idea that unneeded muscle strength and bulk are lost if we don’t exercise. Unfortunately, something similar occurs in the brain. If we are chronically inactive, the hippocampus shrinks more quickly, accelerating age-related cognitive decline. BDNF production is suppressed, limiting the capacity to learn. Levels of mood-enhancing neurotransmitters such as dopamine, serotonin, and norepinephrine drop, and the prefrontal cortex shrinks and becomes less efficient, impacting executive functions and emotional regulation.

This “evolutionary bug” is revealed only when sedentary lifestyles become a possibility.

What makes this so problematic is that we are also evolutionarily programmed to be drawn to inactivity to conserve energy (even though calories are abundantly available for most of us). The immediate visceral rewards of sedentary activities, such as eating and relaxing (or cat videos), often outweigh the abstract delayed benefits of fitness, such as long-term health improvements, when we have the choice.

Daniel Lieberman has pointed out that we are not well-equipped by evolution to “choose” exercise. One option is to change our environment so we have no choice but to move—our ancestors’ path to exercise. We might take the stairs, park a few blocks away from work, or sell the car… Another option is to make activity more pleasurable so that we want to do it. Start by dancing in the kitchen, walking with friends, trampolining with the kids, or working out with brilliant music and cool clothes.

The key is to start. Once we rouse ourselves into action, evolution has a neat trick to keep us going.

Even a short bout of aerobic exercise, a walk, or light stretching increases dopamine and BDNF release, enhancing mood and motivation and reducing stress. This reward reinforces learning behaviours by making them feel pleasurable, which encourages repetition.

More consistent exercise leads to a general upregulation of dopamine function, which strengthens the overall responsiveness of all reward pathways, not only those involved in exercise. So life in general starts to feel better. This is why exercise can be an effective treatment for depression, addiction, and other mood disorders. Exercise itself acts as a natural reward booster, with the added benefit of neuroplasticity, helping the brain form healthier motivational patterns.

We’ve been built to need to move. And moving more means you’ll like moving more, and everything in life will feel better. This is the real incentive.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/what-works-and-why/202509/brain-health-and-mental-capacity-depend-on-physical-activity

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 22, 2025

1. Sales Growth and Margin Expansion=Higher Market

SPX return drivers. “Sales growth & margin expansion [are] powering S&P 500 returns in 2025, much more so than multiple expansion.”

Sonu Varghese – Carson Group


2. INTC News ….AMD -20% Correction from Highs…Flat for 1-Year Basis

Stock Charts


3. INTC News…ARM Holdings Flat 1-Yr Return

Stock Charts


4. Intel Free Cash Flow Went Negative in 2022


5. Last Week was the End of 2nd Longest Small Cap Streak

Bespoke


6. Private BDC’s Raising Massive Assets

Financial Times


7. Tariffs Annualized $350 Billion

Significant Amounts of Tariff Revenue Collected at the Moment

The US government currently collects about $350 billion in tariffs at an annualized rate, which corresponds to 18% of annual household income tax payments, see charts below.

The bottom line is that the amount of money collected in tariff revenue is very significant.

Torsten Slok Apollo


8. Solar-Powered Cars and Trucks Are Almost Here

WSJ-New, power-sipping EVs due next year are efficient enough to gain 10 to 40 miles of daily charge from the sun alone

By Christopher Mims

Telo Trucks says its optional solar-panel system can provide 15 to 30 supplemental miles a day. Photo: Telo trucks

A handful of startups will soon sell technologies that can power a substantial portion of a driver’s daily mileage with nothing but abundant, free sunlight.

Aptera Motors needed automotive-grade solar panels that could conform to the sinuous curves of its radical new EV, but the Carlsbad, Calif.-based automaker found there weren’t any good options. So it decided to make its own.

In the process, it kicked off a cottage industry of U.S. companies aiming to make everyday vehicles solar-powered.

Now the company is poised to ship a $40,000 car as soon as next year that can get between 15 and 40 miles of range a day from the sun alone—and can run for up to 400 miles between charges.

The key to this innovation isn’t solar panels that are better at turning sunlight into electricity. Existing ones are already pretty good at that. The real unlocks are the innovations that have made today’s EVs more efficient, and new power electronics to get energy from the sun into their batteries.

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/aptera-motors-solar-powered-electric-vehicles-6ec1095f


9. New Grayscale ETF holds multiple cryptocurrencies together, combining bitcoin, Solana and others

Yun Li@YunLi626

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, US, on Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024.

Grayscale Investments has brought a new twist to crypto investing, rolling out the first multi-token exchange-traded product available in the U.S.

The Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF begins trading Friday on NYSE under the ticker GDLC. The fund bundles together the five largest and most liquid digital assets — bitcoin, ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano. These five tokens capture more than 90% of the market capitalization of the digital-asset class, according to Grayscale.

“We are ushering in the age of crypto index investing,” Peter Mintzberg, CEO of Grayscale, told CNBC. “We are typically in the first mover position. Grayscale will continue innovating at scale for investors to access the fastest growing asset class of the last 10 years.”

The long-awaited launch followed an approval Wednesday evening from the Securities and Exchange Commission that allowed Grayscale to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund into an ETF and allocate to multiple digital coins.

The move underlines the growing appetite among institutional and retail investors for diversified crypto exposure. The asset class is becoming more mainstream under the Trump administration after the White House’s move to open retirement plans to alternative assets including cryptocurrencies.

The fund allocates about 70% to bitcoin and 20% to ether. The product has existed in other forms since 2018, most recently trading over the counter.

GDLC has gained more than 40% in 2025 as many cryptocurrencies hit record highs. GDLC has outpaced bitcoin by nearly 11% since June, as all four other assets in the fund outperformed the largest digital token.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/19/new-grayscale-etf-holds-multiple-cryptocurrencies-together-combining-bitcoin-solana-and-others.html


10. Tyson Announced It Will Remove Crap from Food

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 19, 2025

1. Small Cap IWM Clear Break-Out to New Highs

StockCharts


2. Truflation Updated Number…Ticked Up 1.93% to 2.01%

Truflation


3. Intel Rallies Back to Gap Down Level 2024….July 2024 Suspended Dividend, Massive Layoffs

StockCharts


4. Supply Growth Rate of Commodities

zerohedge


5. IPO ETF Outperforming S&P 2025

YCharts


6. Tesla Making Run at 3-Year High

StockCharts


7. Nuclear Power by Country

Visual Capitalist


8. Klarna PE Investors from 2021 Still in Red on Valuation

Klarna


9. Share of U.S. Homebuyers that Get Help From Family

Business Insider


10. Before we learn a new skill-Seth’s Blog

The pre-work involves important choices:

  • Am I willing to be wrong about the fact that I’m a person who doesn’t know how to do this?
  • Am I open to feeling incompetent as I discover a new skill is possible, but I don’t know how to do it yet?
  • Will I be resilient enough to recover if I try to do this and fail?
  • Can I temporarily be an imposter, someone who acts like they know the skill, but doesn’t, not quite…
  • Am I eager to be friends with the person who I’m going to become if I make this shift?

Skip these steps and you might as well not bother to begin.

https://seths.blog/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 18, 2025

1. 63% of Venture Capital Deals in North America are AI—Torsten Slok Apollo

Torsten Slok Apollo


2. StubHub IPO Closes Down on Day….The Company has $2.4B in Debt

Google


3. Predicted Fed Rate Cuts

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates from 4.3% to 3.1% by the end of 2026.

Isabelnet at Spilled Coffee Blog


4. Here is the Stat Fed is Watching…Unemployment Rates Rising 20-24 Year Olds

Charlie Bilello


5. Defensive Consumer Staple Sector Continues Downward

XLP vs. SPY. “In case you’re wondering which type of environment we’re in right now, here’s the Consumer Staples sector relative to the S&P 500 hitting new all-time lows. During healthy markets, this line tends to go down. Currently, the line has never been more down.”

JC Parets – TrendLabs


6. America is a Stock Nation vs. World

Irrelevant Investor Blog


7. U.S. Dollar Closing in On Breaking Support

StockCharts


8. Canada and Mexico American Trade Reliance

Semafor


9. Cboe Plans to Launch Continuous Futures for Bitcoin and Ether, Beginning November 10

  • New futures designed to efficiently deliver continuous long-term market exposure to bitcoin and ether
  • Aims to provide access to perpetual-style futures in a U.S.-regulated, intermediated environment
  • Marks next phase of Cboe’s expanding product innovation roadmap

CHICAGO, Sept. 9, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe: CBOE), the world’s leading derivatives and securities exchange network, today announced plans to launch Cboe Continuous futures on Cboe Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE) beginning November 10, 2025, pending regulatory review.

The new product suite will debut with bitcoin and ether Continuous futures, offering U.S. traders a simpler and efficient way to gain long-term exposure to digital assets, execute trading strategies and manage risk – all within a U.S.-regulated, centrally cleared and intermediated framework.

Unlike traditional futures contracts that may require periodic rolling, Cboe Continuous futures are planned to be structured as single, long-dated contracts with a 10-year expiration, reducing the need to roll positions over time and simplifying position management. These contracts will be cash-settled and aligned to real-time spot market prices (i.e., spot prices of bitcoin and ether, respectively) through daily cash adjustments, using a transparent and replicable funding rate methodology.

At the HOOD Summit in Las Vegas, Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe, remarked: “Perpetual-style futures have gained strong adoption in offshore markets. Now, Cboe is bringing that same utility to our U.S.-regulated futures exchange and enabling U.S. traders to access these products with confidence in a trusted, transparent and intermediated environment. We expect Continuous futures to appeal to not only institutional market participants and existing CFE customers, but also to a growing segment of retail traders seeking access to crypto derivatives. As we continue to expand CFE’s offerings to serve all types of market participants, these futures are a next step to advancing our product innovation roadmap.”

The launch builds on Cboe’s ongoing commitment to further growing and diversifying its CFE product suite, which in addition to its flagship Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) futures include innovative products based on equity volatility, digital assets and global fixed income.

The new bitcoin and ether Continuous futures will be cleared through Cboe Clear U.S., a CFTC-regulated derivatives clearing organization, positioning Cboe to further expand its clearing capabilities as it looks to build a robust global derivatives exchange and clearing ecosystem.

The Options Institute will host educational courses on continuous futures on October 30 and November 20. Registration is open to the public. For more technical information on Cboe’s new bitcoin and ether Continuous futures, visit here.

About Cboe Global Markets

Cboe Global Markets (Cboe: CBOE), the world’s leading derivatives and securities exchange network, delivers cutting-edge trading, clearing, and investment solutions to people around the world. Cboe provides trading solutions and products in multiple asset classes, including equities, derivatives, and FX across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Above all, we are committed to building a trusted, inclusive global marketplace that enables people to pursue a sustainable financial future. To learn more about the Exchange for the World Stage, visit www.cboe.com.


10. Workers to Bear Brunt of Rising Healthcare Costs in 2026

Axios

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 16, 2025

1. Quarterly S&P Earnings Being Market Up

SPX earnings. “Positive S&P 500 earnings revisions are very uncommon unless the US economy is coming out of a recession, so the Street’s recent bullishness on future index earnings is nothing short of remarkable.”

@


2. Nasdaq Win Streak Tied for Longest in 4 Years

This is now the longest winning streak for the Nasdaq 100 in nearly two years (November 2023) and tied for the longest since November 2021, or nearly four years! The longest daily winning streak in the index’s history was 19 back in May 1990, just two months before a July peak that led to a 33% decline in the subsequent weeks. We also found it notable that while extended winning streaks were relatively uncommon before 2009, they have become far more frequent in the last 15 years. For example, in the 23+ years from 1985 through 2008, there were just nine winning streaks of nine or more days, but in the last 16 years, there have been 13.

Bespoke


3. Institutional Investors 3rd Weekly Purchase of Tech Stocks in 5 Years

@KobeissiLetter


4. GOOGLE is Best Performing Mag 7 Stock 2025 …At Lowest Point this Year -24% on Fear of Losing Search to AI

StockCharts


5. Bitcoin Did Not Make New Highs with QQQ

StockCharts


6. Small Cap One Tick from New Highs

StockCharts


7. Commodities Equal Weight New Highs

Crescat Capital


8. Money Markets Hit $7.5 Trillion Before Fed Cut Coming

Total MMFs (those held by households and institutions) rose by $83 billion in Q2 from Q1, and by $933 billion year-over-year, to $7.48 trillion. Since Q1 2022, balances have ballooned by $2.39 trillion.

WolfStreet


9. Bessent says US won’t hit China with tariffs over Russian oil unless Europe goes first

By David Lawder

  • Europe needs to ‘do their share’ to cut off Russian oil revenues, Bessent says
  • Bessent criticizes European countries for buying Russian oil, Indian refined products
  • US to consider new Russian sanctions, uses for Russian assets, Bessent says

MADRID, Sept 15 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the Trump administration would not impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods to halt China’s purchases of Russian oil unless European countries hit China and India with steep duties of their own.

Bessent told Reuters and Bloomberg in a joint interview that European countries needed to play a stronger role in cutting off Russian oil revenues and bringing its war in Ukraine to an end.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/bessent-says-us-wont-hit-china-with-tariffs-over-russian-oil-unless-europe-goes-2025-09-15


10. 5 Tips to Make Fast Progress on Any Goal

Some strengths are only visible when you’re in action mode.-Psychology Today

We all have goals that languish on our mental should-do list. Goals we’re either taking no action or painfully slow action on.

Common examples:

  • Home projects or de-cluttering
  • Health-related goals, like incorporating more strength-training
  • Systems-related goals, like becoming more organized at home or work
  • Learning a new tool or technology, like AI

Here are 5 tips to make quick progress on any should-do. As a bonus, they’ll help you discover how taking action itself changes what seems possible and reveals strengths you already possess but only see when you’re in action-mode, not thinking-mode.

Jumpstarts That Work

Choose the one or two strategies that best suit your goal and your flavor of stuckness.

1. Try an Idea You’ve Been Thinking About

Most of us have more good ideas we don’t try than bad ideas we do try. Even finding out an idea didn’t work moves you forward because it takes that idea off your mind.

Try the best (or just quickest to implement) idea you’ve got now, rather than waiting for a better one.

2. Dedicate a Consistent, Weekly Slot for Several Weeks in a Row

I recently dealt with a health concern that felt very emotionally weighty. It was hard to find a balance between ignoring it completely or letting worry about it take over my life.

How did I handle it? For four Mondays in a row, I did something toward addressing it.

To give a real-world example: In week one, I ordered at-home testing supplies. In week two, I started using them. In week three, I got a blood test and emailed some leading researchers. In week four, I did a urine test (after picking up the cup at the blood draw) and read a 14-page document one of the researchers sent.

By the end, I had an annual plan to follow.

A key to this strategy is that your weekly slot should be for executing an action, not deciding what it will be, so plan accordingly.

When you start working, you’re no longer waiting. You’re influencing your outcomes, even when the problem feels scary.

3. Message Someone the Progress You’ve Made on the Goal, Each Monday, for the Next Four Mondays

I’ve been specific with the instructions for this tip to relieve you of some decision-making. Pick a well-regulated friend, therapist, work supervisor, or anyone you think might be a good person for this role.

Let them know what you’re working on, and quietly message them each week to tell them the progress you’ve made in the previous week. You don’t necessarily need to let the person know this is what you’re doing if you’d organically be having ongoing discussions anyway.

4. Give Up Looking for a Solution You’re Sure Will Work

We often hesitate until we’ve thought of an action we’re sure will work.

When I emailed researchers, I had no idea if any would reply, but one did and was extraordinarily helpful.

Here’s another example. My spouse is currently fixing something that’s broken at our house. She’s not sure if she needs to replace the entire unit that’s causing the problem or one part of it.

In these scenarios, back-of-the-napkin math can help you choose an action. Say the whole unit costs $150, and the part costs $20. She estimates there is a 50% chance that swapping the part will be enough.

That seems like a good trade-off.

Rather than trying to know for sure what needs replacing, she can experiment.

Solutions that work often weren’t guaranteed to work. If your anxiety is only managed by knowing a solution will work before trying it, you’ll miss out on solutions you only discover work after trying them.

5. Progress Through Showing Up, Not Planning

This is a completely different strategy that’s well-suited to some goals.

Let’s say you want to learn to use AI, but the possible routes to doing so feel overwhelming. Rather than focusing on a specific goal, spend around 10 hours exploring the tools and possibilities. See where that takes you.

You could take a similar approach to strength training. Commit to spending, say, ten 1-hour slots in the weight room at a gym. Explore. Try out different equipment rather than attempting to have efficient workouts.

Don’t have a gym membership? Get a one-week trial at one gym chain, then try another. Or get a cheap weekly or monthly pass at a community center gym that doesn’t require contracts.

Leverage putting yourself in a setting where action and progress will occur. Focus on exploration and time spent, not a specific outcome.

Develop Meta-Awareness of How Action Itself Transforms Your Thinking and Emotions

By applying any of these strategies, you’ll see actions reveal options, strengths, and solutions you hadn’t imagined.

Taking physical action toward a goal tends to revolutionize our relationship with that goal vs. when we’re just mentally marinating on it. If thinking is a more comfortable state for you than doing, you can marry the two by better appreciating the processes through which action is clarifying.

When we act, we recognize levers we can pull and variables we can influence that we hadn’t considered. Scary tasks, like my medical example, become less scary when we actually start taking effective action. We might realize a goal is harder or easier than we expected, and can adjust accordingly.

Taking action helps us realize the creativity, flexibility, and strength within us that mostly sit unused when we’re not making active progress. There can be fun in seeing what works that we didn’t expect. Our ideas become better after we’ve acted, not before. The problem-solving skills that strong thinkers possess aren’t fully evident until the results of your experiments require them.

When you understand how fast progress can influence your ideas and your self-perceptions, and you have some specific strategies to jumpstart you, this combination can help you make progress on pesky or scary should-dos that have weighed you down.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/ie/blog/in-practice/202509/5-tips-to-make-fast-progress-on-any-goal