Topley’s Top 10 – August 07, 2023

1. Apple and Microsoft Close Below 50day Moving Averages

Short-term technical update post earnings AAPL and MSFT

www.stockcharts.com


2. European Financials Make New Highs Going Back to Great Financial Crisis

EUFN Euro Financials ETF

www.stockcharts.com


3. For Dow Theory Fans…Both Indices Close to Highs

Dow Jones and Dow Transports right at previous highs but no breakthrough.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dowtheory.asp


4. Russell 3000 Market Cap Just Short of New Highs

Bespoke Investment Group $10 Trillion Added in Market Cap; 2023’s Best and Worst Through July  The US stock market (using the Russell 3,000 as a proxy) has now seen an increase in market cap of roughly $10 trillion from its bear market low last October through the end of July 2023.  As shown below, the peak market cap for the US stock market was $51.5 trillion seen on the first day of 2022.  From high to low, total US market cap fell $13.7 trillion during last year’s bear, but since then it has risen back up to $47.7 trillion.  To get back to new all-time highs, total market cap would need to rise by roughly $3.8 trillion.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/10-trillion-added-in-market-cap-2023s-best-and-worst-through-july


5. The Spread of Corporate Bond Yields vs. the Fed Funds Rate has Reached a Low Point

Callum Thomas Chart Storm https://www.chartstorm.info/  Things You Don’t See at the Bottom:  The spread of corporate bond yields vs the Fed funds rate has reached a low point… similar to what it did at some of the previous major market peaks. The economic logic is that it reflects Fed tightening, yield curve recession signals, as well as (overly?) relaxed risk cushions on credit.

Source: @TaviCosta


6. Biotech Nowhere for 2 Years


7. Starbucks Made New Low for Year …Now Down 2023

SBUX chart 50day thru 200day to downside.


8. Chinese Citizens Investing Less …Parking in Money Market Funds

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/chinas-money-market-fund-market-continues-to-diversify/


9. China Pew Research Poll

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/27/views-of-china/


10. The 5 Secret Keys to Business Success

Ronald E. Riggio Ph.D. Psychological strategies for ensuring happy customers and profitable businesses.

KEY POINTS

  • Good customer service is critical to success; interactions need to be positive, helpful, and informative.
  • Selecting and training employees to provide great products and service is key to success.
  • Realize that providing great products and service taxes staff, so they need to be encouraged and supported.

Secrets? Okay, they’re not so much “secrets,” but I had to get your attention. These are common strategies that business owners, managers, and dedicated employees should implement in order to have happy, repeat customers, profitability, and dedicated, healthy employees—all based on research in industrial-organizational psychology and management.

1. Constant Customer Service Orientation. We have all experienced it, bad customer service, surly employees, rude treatment, or simply being ignored when you need something. Quality of product is certainly important for pleasing customers, but so too is the quality of service. Read any online reviews, and you will see criticism, not about what was received, but concerning how the customer/client was treated.

What to Do? Create a culture of service. Make customer service a priority, by choosing staff members who are customer-focused and helpful, but also by constantly emphasizing the importance of quality service. This means having staff who go the extra mile, and, if service falls short, ensure that it is acknowledged and that the customer/client receives an apology, an explanation, and, if appropriate, compensation.

2. Clear and Constant Communication. I fly a lot, and there are inevitable delays. But the quality of my airline experience is affected by how the delay is managed. Foremost, is that there is clear and constant communication about the reasons for the delay, the expected timeline, and the outcome, along with a sincere apology. Communication is critical in any sort of customer-staff interaction.

What to Do? Keep the customer informed about the process and particularly about anything that is unusual or unexpected (e.g., “Our credit card processor is not working, so I will have to manually record your information and put it in the system later). Tell the client what you are doing and why you are doing it. If the process is complex, give a sort of running commentary of what is happening. Importantly, (and bridging with key no. 1), be pleasant and customer-focused.

3. Training Personnel and Aligning Values. Certainly, it is important to select employees who are competent, and who are customer service oriented, but regular training is also necessary. It is also critical for the organization to make its values clear (e.g., top-quality product/service, and great customer service) and to incorporate those values into the mission statement and regular practices and procedures.

What to Do? Have regular quality “refresher courses” that share best practices for performance. Encourage employees to participate in sharing innovative strategies for improvement, and reward them for it, particularly if the new idea benefits the bottom line. Leaders/managers should frequently mention the importance of the company’s values, and they should be exemplary role models for “living the values/mission.”

4. Measuring Progress and Outcomes. It is impossible to know the impact of efforts toward quality and good customer service unless there is some measurement of outcomes. Objective (meaning unbiased—begging customers to give an undeserved 5-star rating isn’t going to get you true results) assessments are critical. Ask customers for accurate feedback and make it easy for them to give it.

What to Do? Consider a formal customer feedback system that is easy to use, such as a brief, online survey, or written comment card. Managers can periodically check in with customers and ask if the product and service met, or exceeded their expectations, or whether there are any complaints/concerns. Pay attention to reviews on social media, learn from them, and respond (if appropriate) with an apology and a promise to do better.

5. Providing Feedback, Support, and Care for Employees. This could be an entire post (or book) on its own. Employees can’t know when their performance and quality of interactions with customers is good, or falls short, without management providing them with regular, and constructive, feedback.

What to Do? Provide regular feedback/performance reviews, not just the formal once-a-year type, but ongoing performance management. The focus should be on what’s right, what’s falling short, and how to do things better. It is also important for leaders/managers to realize that the customer isn’t right 100 percent of the time. Sometimes, the client/customer is out of line and they are being difficult or abusive to the staff. That’s when it is time to step in and support employees.

It is also important to note that providing great service is an emotionally (and sometimes physically) taxing endeavor. The psychological construct of “emotional labor” suggests that a can-do attitude, and service with a smile, is emotionally taxing and stressful.

Managers and leaders need to realize this and provide support and relief when needed.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/cutting-edge-leadership/202308/the-5-secret-keys-to-business-success

Topley’s Top 10 – August 03, 2023

1. 10-Year Treasury Yield at Previous Highs After Hitting 3.3% in April

www.stockcharts.com

30-Year about to break above a sideways pattern.


2. Equity Inflows Back Above Bonds the Last 3 Months


3. Dividends as a Percentage of Total Returns


4. Dividend Yield Stocks Lag this Year

Jack Ablin Cresset

Stocks vs Bonds: A One-Sided Argument No More | Cresset Capital


5. Narrow Market Rallies Historically Broaden Over Next Year

Capital Group

Can this stock market rally continue? | Capital Group


6. Credit Card Companies

AMEX and Discovery did not make new highs….measure of consumer spending.


7. UBER Turns Profit Breaks Above 2022 Highs

UBER Still Below Record Highs $60


8. Emerging Markets Chart

EEM never made it back above 200-week moving average….50week still below 200week.


9. New Jersey house prices rise at fastest rate in the nation — but other states saw prices fall by up to 8%

By Aarthi Swaminathan

Several housing markets in the Northeast had a strong performance in June, according to CoreLogic. Other states? Not so much.

Good news for homeowners in New Jersey — home-price growth in the Garden State in June was the highest in the nation, according to real-estate data company CoreLogic.

Despite having the highest property taxes in the nation, New Jersey ranked first as its homes rose in value by 6.9% in June year-over-year. Nationally, home prices grew 1.6% on the year in June, the CoreLogic Home Price Index said.

Several housing markets in the Northeast gave a strong performance in June, CoreLogic said. New Jersey was followed by New Hampshire and Vermont, which both saw home prices grow by 6.4%. CoreLogic expects home prices nationally to increase to 4.3% by June 2024. 

Home prices fell the most in June 2023 as compared to June 2022 in the West, led by Idaho where values fell by 8%. Washington and Montana followed, with home prices falling 5.8% and 5.7% respectively. Homes in California saw their values fall by 2.2% from June. 

‘While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June’s annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending.’

— CoreLogic Home Price Index

“While the annual losses reflect last year’s declines, many West Coast markets are expected to see a strong rebound in prices over the next year,” CoreLogic stated.

Homes in California were also some of the most expensive in the nation. 

The U.S. housing market is currently facing a supply-and-demand crisis. Home buyers across the U.S. are struggling with a major lack of home listings, as homeowners find few reasons to sell their houses. But demand continues to hold strong, despite the 30-year mortgage rate hovering at 7%.

“While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June’s annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending,” Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic, said in a statement.

“And while higher rates are impacting affordability for buyers with loans, almost 4 in 10 sales are all-cash transactions,” she noted.

Not to mention the fact that many baby boomers who own their home “have substantial equity,” he added, “which could be putting pressure on prices in markets where that generation is currently migrating.”

CoreLogic also noted that the top real-estate markets at risk of home-price declines included the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro, the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro, both in Florida, and the Provo-Orem metro in Utah.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-jersey-house-price-growth-is-the-highest-in-the-nation-but-other-states-saw-prices-fall-by-up-to-8-5998e16f?mod=home-page


10. U.S. Happiness Chart

Marketwatch The chart-There’s been a bear market in happiness, if you are to believe this chart in the long-running General Social Survey, from ​NORC at the University of Chicago. That said, people are still happy, as the happiness scale runs from -100 to +100. Sam Peltzman, a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Chicago, says the U.S. adult population is mainly happy, and of the different factors shaping happiness, “marriage and income are most important followed by race and education and lastly by place, age and gender.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-is-downgraded-how-much-does-it-matter-to-markets-and-the-surprise-asset-that-may-benefit-55edfa06?mod=search_headline

Topley’s Top 10 – August 02, 2023

1. Average Quarterly Returns by Presidential Terms

Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


2. Caterpillar New Highs

www.stockcharts.com


3. PFF U.S. Preferred ETF…75% Financials

50day thru 200day to upside.


4. Shortage of Single Homes for Sale….AMH American Homes for Rent +25% Year to Date

AMH 50day thru 200day in late May


5. Blackstone Real Estate Interval Fund Continues to See Withdraw Requests….9 Months Running

BREIT Hit By Ninth Consecutive Month Of Redemptions; Plans Pivot To AI Data-Centers BY TYLER DURDEN ZEROHEDGE

Blackstone has limited investor redemption requests from its $68 billion real estate trust for high-net wealth investors for eight consecutive months while storm clouds continue to gather over commercial real estate markets.

According to a letter obtained by Bloomberg, Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) recorded investor outflows of $3.7 billion in July — the lowest redemption requests since the run on the fund began in November 2022. However, BREIT only returned about $1.3 billion, or approximately 34% of what was requested — as it continues to gate redemption to prevent massive outflows. 

“This structure was designed to both prevent a liquidity mismatch and maximize long-term shareholder value.

“A shareholder who began submitting repurchase requests when proration began has received approximately 94% of their money back and the semi-liquid structure is working as intended,” according to the letter.

BREIT has been working through redemption requests for the last eight months. We have provided a detailed account of the panic out of BREIT as CRE markets come under pressure in a high-rate environment: 

Remember when BREIT received a $4 billion bailout cash infusion from the University of California earlier this year?

Late January, Blackstone President Jonathan Gray told Financial Times that BREIT was experiencing a “backlog” of redemption requests. 

Redemption requests surged in Spring:

Bloomberg said BREIT had sold CRE assets to raise capital: 

BREIT has sold $12 billion of real estate assets since the beginning of 2022, generating $2.5 billion of profit during its ownership, according to Blackstone. Recent transactions include an $800 million sale of a Texas hotel, and a $2.2 billion deal to offload a self-storage business.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/breit-hit-nine-consecutive-months-withdraws


6. Meanwhile Global Bonds 17th Consecutive Week of Inflows

Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/08/01/a-generational-change/


7. Follow-Up From Yesterday….Hedge Fund Short-Covering the Most Aggressive Since 2016

Equities: Hedge funds’ short-covering this summer hasn’t been this aggressive since 2016.

Source: Goldman Sachs

Source: @markets  Read full article

https://dailyshotbrief.com/


8. TIPS Bond ETF has not Traded Above 200-Week Moving Average Since September 2022


9. Income Needed to be Happy in Your State


10. Mark Cuban says he avoids wasting time at work, and that meetings are the main culprit-Business Insider

In a June conversation, Mark Cuban called out the No. 1 time waster in the office.

  • Cuban says he will only take meetings and phone calls if there’s “no other way.”
  • Earlier in his career, Cuban would run standing-only meetings to ensure they ended faster.

Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily.

If you’re a believer that most work meetings could be condensed into emails, you’re in very wealthy company.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban called out meetings and phone calls during a June conversation with author Chris Voss on the streaming platform Fireside. Cuban does his best to avoid meetings and phone calls as he believes they hinder the productivity of the workplace. 

“I try to only do meetings if I have to come to a conclusion or there’s no other way — same with phone calls,” Cuban said to Voss. “It kills so much time.”

When he does attend meetings, the “Shark Tank” star said, most get bogged down with small talk and take away from talking through the important points of the agenda. His sentiment toward meetings remains unchanged from the early days of his career when he’d run standing-only meetings.

“It’s amazing how quickly meetings get over with if no one has a chair or someplace to sit,” he said in the interview.

He’s not the only exec who thinks meetings are a waste. Earlier this month, Shopify bosses introduced a plug-in for employees that would track the dollar amount spent during a meeting. According to the company’s COO, it was an attempt to cut down on meetings so workers could “get shit done.”

Now, as an executive, Cuban has more control over his own schedule, and he takes advantage of it. For him, emails are the preferred form of communicating about work.

“I can respond to those in the middle of the night. Or I can respond to those on my schedule as opposed to have to arrange everything around other people,” Cuban said.

Despite his success and wealth, Cuban remains dedicated to continuing to work. In an October 2022 interview, the billionaire said retirement isn’t for him just yet because “he’s too competitive.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-avoids-meetings-and-phone-calls-at-work-2023-7

Topley’s Top 10 – August 01, 2023

1. Hedge Funds Cover Shorts

Bloomberg Lu Wang Pro managers who make both bullish and bearish equity wagers last week slashed positions on both sides of their book, also known as de-grossing, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s prime brokerage unit. The rush to tweak positions was frantic enough to push total client stock flows to the highest level since the retail-fomented short squeeze in 2021.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-funds-throwing-towel-stocks-201254115.html


2. Dow Dividend Payers vs. Non-Dividend

Bespoke-Dogs of the Dow for the Dog Days of Summer

With the Dow coming off of a historic winning streak last week, below we check in on performance of the index versus the Dogs of the Dow. The Dogs of a Dow is a stock-picking strategy that invests in the index members with the highest dividend yields at the end of a year holds them through the end of the next year.  On a total return basis, the Dow’s recent winning streak has been a benefit to both the overall index and the Dogs alike. That said, the gains to the former have brought the index up near 2022 highs on a total return basis while the Dogs of the Dow has much further to go given the overall weakness of dividend-oriented equities recently.

In the table below, we show the returns of this year’s Dogs of the Dow and all other individual Dow members.  The Dogs of the Dow are host to some of the stocks with the worst performance this year like Verizon (VZ) and Chevron (CVX), however, there are also a couple of big winners like Intel (INTC) which has returned nearly 42% YTD or JPMorgan Chase (JPM) which has nearly posted a 20% return. However, the biggest gains in the index have come from non-Dogs.  In fact, the largest gains this year have been from those with the lowest or no dividend yields at the end of last year like Boeing (BA), Salesforce (CRM), or Apple (AAPL).

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/dogs-of-the-dow-for-the-dog-days-of-summer


3. Share of Banks Tightening Lending Standards

Axios-Courtenay Brown

Banks report toughest loan standards in years (axios.com)


4. Demand for C&I Loans

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Bloomberg reports The Fed’s survey of senior loan officers at 2pm may show the long-anticipated stiffening of lending conditions is finally playing out amid restrictive monetary policy and new capital requirement rules. The shift in the credit cycle may cut inflation-adjusted GDP in the US and Europe by 1%-2% by the end of 2024, Citi said


5. Energy Stock ETF Close to New Highs

www.stockcharts.com


6. U.S. Annual CO2 Emissions


7. Bitcoin Still at Center of Crypto Universe

www.chartr.com


8. Average Monthly Student Loan Payment $200

Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Partner Apollo Global Management  There are a total of 45 million people with student loans, and the average monthly student loan payment is around $200, so resuming student loan payments in October will subtract roughly $9bn from consumer spending every month, or roughly $100bn a year, and this will mainly have an impact on younger households, see chart below.


9. The Median Starter Home Price is 46% Higher than 2019

@Charlie Bilello Example: the median price of a starter home in the US is 46% higher than 2019 levels. The monthly mortgage payment needed to purchase one of these homes has more than doubled over that time period.


10. What is the Function of Worry?

The Daily Stoic One of the most timeless lines in all of the Stoic writings comes from Epictetus, “What upsets people is not things themselves, but their judgements about these things.”

It’s a powerful idea. And it’s made all the more transcendent by the remarkable fact that nearly every other philosophy has come to the exact same conclusion. We recently talked to Sam Harris on the Daily Stoic podcast. While Harris’ work is heavily influenced by Eastern philosophical traditions, on the podcast, Harris talked about one of the overlaps between his work and the Stoics:

With mindfulness, you’re not doing anything but noticing what is happening. Everything—thoughts, sensations—arises by itself. And it’s in that recognition that you see that the problem you thought you needed to solve a moment ago isn’t even there. The problem of your anxiety or of disappointment—these are thought-based delusions. That’s not to say that there aren’t challenging experiences. Things like physical pain don’t magically go away once you learn how to meditate. But so much of our suffering in response to something like physical pain is because of our psychological contraction around it and our anxiety about it and our fear that it won’t go away and our fear of what it means.

The Stoics had this very much in hand—the whole issue of, what is the function of worry? Either you can do something about the problem right now or you can’t. If you can do something about the problem, do whatever that is. And if you can’t, worry doesn’t add anything to your capacity to do anything—it just makes you miserable twice over.

East, west, north, and south—worry is pointless. As Marcus Aurelius writes in Meditations, “Today I escaped from anxiety. Or no, I discarded it, because it was within me, in my own perceptions—not outside.” Remember this the next time you get anxious, the next time you’re stressed or overwhelmed with worry—these are thought-based delusions. I can discard them. I can let it go.

Don’t let these things make you miserable twice over. Change your judgment about these things.

https://dailystoic.com/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 31, 2023

1. Oil Prices +14% One-Month


2. Gasoline One-Week Gain

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-30/five-key-charts-to-watch-in-global-commodity-markets-this-week?sref=GGda9y2L


3. Amazon Reports this Week

AMZN sitting right below 200-week moving average on long-term chart….Still $50 from highs.

©1999-2023 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

www.stockcharts.com


4. Fed Funds Rate Highest Since 2001

Barrons

https://www.barrons.com/articles/sizing-up-moves-by-the-fed-the-ecb-and-the-bank-of-japan-d13bf9fc?mod=past_editions


5. FRDM Freedom 100 Emerging Markets

FRDM outperformance (No China) versus traditional emerging market index….Chart is FRDM vs. EEM

www.stockcharts.com

https://www.etf.com/FRDM


6. World’s Leading Economic Power-U.S. vs. China

Asian Countries Largely Favor U.S. as Leading Economic Power.

Japan 64-22 for U.S.

India   53-14 for U.S.

S.Korea 83-8 for U.S.

From Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog

https://ritholtz.com/2023/07/sunday-reads-334/


7. Hedge Funds Giving Up on China

The Daily Shot Brief China: Hedge funds have been cutting their exposure.

Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook

https://dailyshotbrief.com


8. U.S. Leading World in AI Investments

Capital Group

Capital Group www.capitalgroup.com


9. 1 in 4 U.S. homebuyers want to move to a different city—here’s the No. 1 place they’re looking

Mike Winters@MIKEWINTRS CNBC

With mortgage rates at 20-year highs, more people are looking to relocate from high-cost coastal cities to places in the South and Southwest, with Las Vegas as the top destination.

Nearly 26% of property search queries on online real estate brokerage Redfin.com are for cities where potential homebuyers don’t live, based on data for the three months ending June 2023.That’s the highest percentage since 2017, when Redfin first started tracking migration data.

Homeownership costs seem to be driving the trend, as the majority of homebuyers are from cities with some of the highest home prices in the country, such as New York or Los Angeles.

Based on an analysis of 100 metro areas, the following 10 cities had the highest net inflow of property searches on Redfin’s website. Net inflow is the number of people looking to move into a city minus the number of people looking to leave. 

1.               Las Vegas: 5,700

2.               Phoenix:5,300

3.               Tampa, Florida:5,000

4.               Orlando, Florida: 4,900

5.               Sacramento, California: 4,800

6.               North Port-Sarasota, Florida: 4,700

7.               Cape Coral, Florida: 4,100

8.               Dallas:4,100

9.               Miami: 3,700

10.            Houston:3,600

For all cities on this list, the largest number of potential out-of-town homebuyers are from either Los Angeles, Seattle, New York or Chicago, according to the study. This makes sense, as those are some of the cities where the most homebuyers seemingly want to leave.

Here are the 10 metros with the largest net outflow of property searches, which measures the number of search queries interested in leaving a metro area minus the number of search queries about moving to that same city.

1.               San Francisco: 28,100

2.               New York City: 24,200

3.               Los Angeles: 20,900

4.               Washington, D.C.: 15,700

5.               Chicago: 4,900

6.               Boston: 4,400

7.               Seattle:3,900

8.               Hartford, Connecticut: 3,500

9.               Denver: 2,300

10.            Detroit: 2,300

The search patterns suggest homebuyers are looking to leave large coastal hubs for cities in low-tax states that have considerably cheaper home prices.

For instance, most out-of-town buyers looking for properties in Las Vegas are from Los Angeles. The median cost of a home in Las Vegas is $412,500 as of June, nearly half the $975,000 median cost for homes in Los Angeles, according to Redfin’s data.

For the purposes of the study, a person browsing Redfin counts as a migrant if they’ve viewed 10 properties in another city over the three months ending June 2023. The net inflow and outflow rankings were compiled based on the total number of migrants.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/30/1-in-4-us-homebuyers-want-to-move-to-a-new-city.html


10. Farnam Street -Clear Thinking

Tiny Thought

Contrary to what we’re led to believe, clear thinking is often the result of the position you are in at the time of the decision. 

Even a genius looks ordinary if circumstances force them into a bad position. 

The best position themselves to win before the game even starts. Tom Brady couldn’t show up on Sunday and perform if he didn’t put in the reps first. By studying film, eating healthy, stretching, and practicing, he puts himself in a position to win. It’s not just sports, the best in business do the same thing. 

An underrated element of doing your best is the position you are in when you need to perform. 

History is littered with successful people who positioned themselves to win and took advantage of the storm. 

You can position yourself to win no matter the circumstances. There is always something you can do to improve your current position. 

Eating well, saving money, sleeping, preparing for your next job, taking on more responsibility at work, removing people from your life who drag you down, reading and learning, etc. 

When you master your circumstances, every path is a winner. When your circumstances master you, things quickly go from bad to worse. 

Over a long enough time horizon, positioning beats predicting. 

(Click here to share on Twitter)

 www.fs.com