10. Update on Drinking in America—Professor Galloway Blog
Halved Between 2002 and 2018, the share of college students who don’t drink alcohol jumped from 20% to 28%, and, overall, Gen Z drinks 20% less alcohol per capita than millennials did at the same age — which was, in turn, 20% less than Gen X consumed. Among high school students, 39% drank alcohol in 2011; just 23% drink today. Think about that: In just a decade the number of high school students who drink has been almost halved. Youth drinking is declining despite another broad shift, the shrinking gender gap — older Americans are drinking more as a cohort, as a generation of women who grew up when drinking was more acceptable for them ages. The trend is global: In Japan, where drinking binges are ingrained in the work culture, as a means of establishing trust, 60% of the population now believes that after-work drinking is “no longer necessary.” Youth drinking in the U.K. has been falling for two decades.
Drinking hasn’t vanished from youth experience in the same fashion as mix tapes or call waiting, but the cultural impact of the shift is greater than the numbers suggest. Concert promoters report dramatic declines in alcohol sales at shows with younger audiences, and they’ve started stocking more no- and low-alcohol options at concessions. Alcohol giant AB InBev projects no/low brands (variants of traditionally alcoholic beverages without alcohol) will make up 20% of sales by 2025. High-end mocktails and drybars are on trend, and millions of people participate in Dry January every year.
2. 60/40 Portfolio Had Best Month Since 1990 in November.
Blackrock 60/40…50day thru 200day to upside.
3. Concentration Update S&P Top 10 Stocks Make Up 35% of Index.
The concentration in the S&P500 continues to increase, and the ten largest stocks now make up 35% of the index, the highest level since the last tech bubble in 2000,
Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
4. Coverd Call ETFS—Defensive Strategy $26B in Flows 2023
Dave Lutz Jones Trading COVERED CALLS TOMORROW– Investors on the hunt for regular income have this year poured almost $26bn into exchange traded funds that sell options tied to stocks, inspiring a wave of copycats and raising questions about their effects on market volatility. The funds, known as covered call ETFs, have surged in popularity to contain roughly $59bn in combined assets, up from only $3bn three years ago, according to the FTCovered call ETFs sell options on underlying equity holdings to generate income in the form of premiums while also limiting the magnitude of gains and losses. Typically seen as a defensive strategy, they’ve enjoyed continued success in a year when US markets have boomed. About half of this year’s new money into covered call ETFs has gone to the $30bn JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), an S&P 500 index-focused product that has grown to become the largest actively managed ETF.
5. Regional Banks-Chart Update.
KRE 50day crossing 200day to upside.
KRE Longer-Term Chart….Rallying to 200-week moving average
6. Russell 2000 Small Cap Still Not Even Back to August 2023 Levels.
7. PDD Holdings New Chinese Stock Leader +78% YTD….Revenues +90% + Year Over Year
PDD vs. BIDU chart
8. More Strong Labor Market Data
In recent months, we have seen a significant increase in the number of men age 55 to 64 joining the workforce, see chart below. Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
9. Range Rovers Become Thief-Magnets, Causing Prices to Tumble-Bloomberg
The second-hand luxury SUVs have dropped 9% in value since May
Jaguar Land Rover considers bespoke insurance for car owners
Tim Coen, a property investor, loved his Range Rover Sport but decided it was time to go green. He wanted to trade in the gas-guzzling sport utility vehicle for an electric Porsche.
There was a snag, however. A string of Range Rover thefts in the UK has caused insurance premiums to skyrocket. While the Porsche was being built, his coverage provider said it wouldn’t re-insure the Range Rover. He searched online and the cheapest quote he could find was £48,000 ($60,100).
The eye-watering cost has sent the SUV’s resale value tumbling. The Leeds-based entrepreneur, who runs investment firm North Property Group, paid £103,000 for his Sport SVR two years ago. He checked its value online three months ago and it was supposedly worth £75,000. Now, it would only fetch about £45,000, according to the same site.
Coen, 34, can’t even sell it — he would need to fork out an extra £25,000 to pay off the finance because of the drop in valuation.
“I was trying to be a bit more eco-friendly, but now I’m probably not because I’ve got two cars rather than one,” said Coen, whose previous Range Rover was stolen in London in 2020.
He isn’t the only one to have seen the value of his vehicle go into reverse. The average price of a used Range Rover has fallen 9.3% since May to £35,224, versus declines of 5.7% for all luxury SUVs and 2.8% for all cars, data from car site Auto Trader shows.
Range Rover prices fell 2.8% in November alone, Auto Trader said, the steepest drop since insurance costs spiked. The declines follow a surge in second-hand car prices during the pandemic, when new-vehicle production slowed due to semiconductor shortages and other supply chain crises.
Delving into the continuous process of individual growth in your relationships. Ilene Strauss Cohen Ph.D.
KEY POINTS
Personal development is not a destination but a continuous path. Individual growth requires commitment, effort, and patience. We develop the most through our important relationships.
Many individuals seek quick solutions and universal advice to overcome their challenges. However, personal development is not a destination but an ongoing journey of self-improvement and self-discovery. It’s not a process that can be expedited through a handful of therapy sessions but rather a lifelong pursuit of becoming the best version of oneself. After all, what could be more important than that?
Personal development is a continuous process that makes life all the more enjoyable. We are constantly evolving beings, each with our unique set of challenges. These challenges can be viewed as opportunities for growth and learning rather than problems to be solved and eradicated.
Personal development encompasses enhancing one’s skills, abilities, awareness, and overall quality of life. This improvement can manifest in various ways — from learning new languages to developing emotional intelligence. While external factors like career advancement or relationship transitions can stimulate personal development, it is primarily fueled by an internal drive for self-improvement.
However, where can we develop ourselves the most? Believe it or not, it is through our most important relationships. That, combined with our internal drive for self-improvement, is one of the best ways to improve ourselves. We should not understand individuals in isolation but as part of their family system. A family is an emotional unit that significantly influences an individual’s behavior and development. For instance, understanding one’s familial relationships can help identify patterns of emotional reactivity, a crucial aspect of personal growth. By recognizing these patterns, individuals can strive towards greater emotional maturity and reduced reactivity to the dynamics of their family systems. You can also become aware of who you want to be within your most important relationships.
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Consider Beth, a young professional who often conflicts with her colleagues. She had a short temper and found it challenging to handle criticism, constantly engaging in heated exchanges. Realizing the need for change, Beth decided to focus on personal development. She began by seeking to understand her emotional reactivity and its roots in her early family relationships. Beth realized her defensiveness and inability to handle criticism were patterns she had learned in her childhood home, where expressing disagreement was often met with hostility. With this insight, Jane committed to changing her behavior. She started practicing active listening, responding rather than reacting, and developing empathy towards her colleagues. Over time, she noticed a distinct change in her interactions, reflecting her growth and maturity within her professional relationships.
Brain Plasticity and Personal Development
Recent research on brain plasticity has given us a new perspective on personal development. Brain plasticity, or neuroplasticity, is the brain’s ability to reorganize itself by forming new neural connections throughout life. This neuroscientific concept suggests that our brains are not rigidly hardwired as once thought but are dynamic and adaptable.
Brain plasticity means that our habits, behaviors, and thought patterns can change over time, reinforcing the idea that personal development is an ongoing process. With consistent effort, we can reshape our brains to develop new skills, adopt healthier habits, and overcome limiting beliefs.
The Lifelong Journey
Personal development is not a destination but a continuous path through self-awareness of what needs to change. It requires commitment, effort, and patience, along with a willingness to see what we are up against in our most profound relationships. Here are some steps to help you on your journey:
1. Self-awareness: Begin by understanding yourself better. Recognize your strengths, weaknesses, values, and beliefs. Assess how you respond to different situations and what triggers certain behaviors in you. This understanding is the first step towards positive change. Keep a journal to record your thoughts, feelings, and reactions, and review it regularly for patterns and areas of improvement.
2. Understanding Your Family System: By viewing yourself as a part of an interconnected system, you can identify how your family dynamics have shaped your behaviors, emotions, and thought patterns. Understanding and addressing these familial patterns can lead to improved communication, healthier boundaries, and reduced emotional reactivity within the family system. Working on yourself involves acknowledging the interactive nature of personal development within your family context.
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3. Goal Setting: Identify what you want to improve or achieve. Ensure your goals are SMART – Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Time-bound. Once you’ve set your goals, devise a clear plan of action to bring them to fruition. Detail the steps you need to take, resources you may require, and potential obstacles you may encounter. Regularly assess your progress and adjust your plan if necessary, understanding that flexibility is critical to achieving your goals.
4. Skill Acquisition: Learn and develop the necessary skills to achieve your goals. This could involve formal education, online courses, reading, or practicing a specific skill. Suppose your goal is to improve your public speaking skills. Start by identifying areas you wish to enhance, such as articulation, body language, or audience engagement. Next, look for resources that can aid in your development. This could involve signing up for a public speaking course, reading books on the topic, or watching online tutorials.
5. Reflection and Evaluation: Regularly reflect on your progress. Consider what’s working, what isn’t, and how you can adjust your approach. For example, your goal might be to improve communication within your romantic relationship. After implementing changes for a month, you might reflect on what progress has been made. You may notice that while you’re having fewer arguments, you still struggle to express your feelings clearly. This reflection indicates that while the changes have been beneficial, there’s still room for improvement. The evaluation might lead you to seek resources focused explicitly on expressing emotions effectively. Remember, reflection and evaluation are ongoing processes crucial for continuous growth and development in any aspect of life.
6. Persistence: Change takes time. Stay committed to your personal development journey, even when it gets tough. Consider finding a therapist or joining a support group to help you stay persistent in your growth. Try not to give up and remember it is okay to take breaks. Development doesn’t happen in a straight line; there will be setbacks, and that is typical.
Personal development is a lifelong journey. It’s about being open to change and growth, understanding your family system, leveraging the power of brain plasticity, and consistently working towards becoming the best version of yourself. Remember, every step, no matter how small, brings you closer to your personal growth goals. And no matter how much work you have done on yourself, we all go backward at times, and the critical part is that you get yourself back up.
The accompanying chart plots this ratio, courtesy of data provided by Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates. You will notice that, from its low at the top of that bubble in 2000 to its high in 2006, the ratio nearly doubled—from 0.37 to 0.73. Over that period, the average small-cap value stock produced a 22.2% annualized gain (before transaction costs), according to data from Arnott, versus a 0.1% annualized gain for the average value stock. That’s equivalent to an annualized margin of more than 22 percentage points, which is extraordinary.
2. Large Stocks vs. Small Stocks Outperformance Record Levels.
@Charlie Bilello Large vs. Small: The S&P 500 is outperforming the Russell 2000 by 13.7% in 2023. In the last 30 years, large cap outperformance has only been higher two times: 1998 (31.1% spread) and 2021 (13.9% spread).
3. High Dividend Stocks are also at Record Low Valuations Versus S&P
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is cracking open the history books for its latest attempt to address a severe housing shortage in Canada.
The government is moving forward with a catalog of pre-approved home designs to reduce the cost and time it takes to build housing. The idea dates back to the 1940s when thousands of soldiers returned from the Second World War and needed a place to live.
“We are living in a housing crisis, but it’s not the first time Canada’s been here,” said Housing Minister Sean Fraser at a news conference on Tuesday.
The new program will differ from the wartime strategy in some key ways, however. Between the 1940s and 1960s, a catalog of simple designs allowed for as many as a million wood-frame detached homes — known as “Victory Houses” or “Strawberry Box” homes — to be built across the country.
This is how to be strategic and achieve your goals:
What Strategy Isn’t: Fluff, not facing the challenge, mistaking goals for strategy and bad strategic objectives are all signs of a bad strategy. You’re basically crossing your fingers and hoping the universe is in a really giving mood.
What Strategy Is: “Good strategy works by focusing energy and resources on one, or a very few, pivotal objectives whose accomplishment will lead to a cascade of favorable outcomes.” Yes, this phrase sounds like something a LinkedIn influencer would say while trying to sell you a webinar. But it makes sense and it works.
Diagnosis: Be honest about what obstacles you’re facing. Without that, strategy is just business improv. And nobody – I repeat, nobody – wants to see accountants and middle managers doing improv.
Guiding Policy: How can you apply your strengths to the weaknesses of the obstacle and create leverage to overcome them? You need to focus. Trying to do too many things, avoiding tough choices and thinking you’re going to please everybody might be why you cry in the shower.
Coherent Action: If your strategy is all goals and no action, it’s not a strategy; it’s a daydream with bullet points.
So how do you get started? You need to know what you want to achieve. This can be a problem for a lot of people. But it’s not that hard – in fact, it’s quite easy. Quick story:
It’s 1890 and multi-millionaire Andrew Carnegie is holding court at a cocktail party. People are hanging on his every word. Frederick Taylor approaches. He was famous as an expert on helping people organize their work. Carnegie looked at him and said, “Young man, if you can tell me something about management that is worth hearing, I will send you a check for ten thousand dollars.” Ten grand then was about $300,000 today. It was probably more of a status challenge than a real offer. Everyone turned to look at Taylor…
“Mr. Carnegie,” Taylor said, “I would advise you to make a list of the ten most important things you can do. And then, start doing number one.” A week later, Taylor received a check for ten grand.
Sounds ridiculous, right? This is the most basic advice in the world. Every corny self-help book recommends this. Why in the world would Carnegie – an amazing businessman by any measure — see this as valuable? The list wasn’t that valuable. But actually making the list was incredibly valuable. We talked about the importance of tough choices. And making a list forces you to decide what’s important and what’s possible. Taylor’s list got Carnegie to reflect on what mattered most to him – and to consider ways of getting there.
Business fads come and go. Self-help tricks come and go. We love shiny new things. But what’s important is making choices that don’t make future-you want to time travel back and slap some sense into present-you. So make a list. Consider what’s important to you. Think about the obstacles. Discover where the obstacles are weak and where you are strong to create points of leverage. And then…
Former Apple executive Guy Kawasaki recently interviewed an author he credits for “fundamentally changing my life.” The author is Stanford psychology professor Carol Dweck, who wrote the influential bookMindset: The New Psychology of Success.
Dweck popularized the concept of the growth mindset, which describes people who believe their skills and abilities can be developed. On the other hand, those with a fixed mindset believe they’re born with a certain amount of skill or intelligence, and that’s it.
Dweck says that mindsets fluctuate–a person can have a growth mindset most of the time, but shift to a fixed mindset when faced with setbacks. For founders to build successful teams, they must learn to identify those people who exhibit a growth mindset most of the time, because those hires will lift the entire team’s success.
After two decades of working with top CEOs and entrepreneurs who credit the growth mindset for getting them to the top, I’ve learned to recognize five signs that reflect a person who is always learning and always growing.
1. They’re learn-it-alls.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella credits Dweck’s book for helping him shift his mindset from fixed to growth. The change in his approach led Nadella to make major transformations at Microsoft. It also changed the way he hires.
Nadella looks for learn-it-alls and not know-it-alls. How can he tell? By hiring people who are not afraid to fail.
Job candidates with a growth mindset are the first to acknowledge mistakes they’ve made because they view failures as opportunities to learn and improve. They don’t wait for the question, “Tell me about your greatest weakness?” or “Tell me about a time you failed?”Instead, they bring it up themselves because they know setbacks are setups for success.
2. They seek out mentors.
“People with more of a growth mindset take on mentors and seek them out to enhance the likelihood that they can use their growth mindset successfully,” says Dweck.
I recently had dinner with a founder who built a business from the ground up and sold it for $100 million. The founder also brought along his mentor, a former CEO who had acted as this founder’s informal advisor for 20 years.
What I found remarkable is that–despite the founder’s success–he was still asking his mentor questions at the dinner table. That’s the growth mindset in action–always learning, always seeking feedback.
3. They admit to mistakes and learn from them.
Ray Dalio is a billionaire who founded Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund. Dalio famously owns up to financial mistakes he’s made over the years.For example, he bet a depression would take down the U.S. economy in 1982. He was wrong; stocks went on a bull run, and Dalio’s firm lost money.
But Dalio turned the mistake into a learning opportunity and openly discusses how the event changed his mindset, how he makes financial decisions, and the qualities he looks for in new hires. Dalio’s mistakes made him a more successful investor, and today he’s a strong advocate for turning mistakes into opportunities to grow and improve.
4. They’re insatiably curious.
Dax Shepard hosts the immensely successful podcast Armchair Expert, consistently ranked as one of the most popular podcasts on Spotify.
Shepard is a voracious reader who invites his favorite authors on the show. When Tim Ferriss asked Shepard which book he would gift others, Shepard immediately launched into a discussion of Ron Chernow’s book Titan, a biography of John D. Rockefeller.The question that Ferriss asked is a good indicator of a growth mindset. If you’re a founder, ask potential hires for their book recommendations. You’ll quickly find out if they’re insatiably curious, a key sign of a growth mindset.
5. They surround themselves with smarter people.
Warren Buffett is one of the most intelligent investors on the planet. Yet, he often credits his success to hiring people who are smarter than he is.By smarter, Buffet is not referring to a person’s IQ. He simply acknowledges that some people know a lot more about a particular topic than he does.Very few people can set aside their egos and admit that someone knows more than they do. But that’s why so few people truly exhibit the qualities of a lifelong learner. Once you identify growth mindset people, hire them, hold them close, and keep them around.
Source: @Callum_Thomas using Market ChartsFinancial Conditions Breakout: One positive is that the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index has broken out to the highest (most easy/stimulative) point since early-2022. And it has been this sharp turnaround in financial conditions that has fueled the rally in stocks (falling bond yields, weaker USD, tighter credit spreads, lower oil price).
…but. The Fed has its final meeting of 2023 next week, and while the market has already made up its mind that the Fed is done with rate hikes, it will be interesting to see if the Fed gives the OK to this easing — there is the potential they may see it as too much too quick, and seek to talk back some of the easing in financial conditions.
5. Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) P/E 32 vs. Russell 1000 Value (IWN) P/E 14
IWF vs. IWN 2023..Growth straight up in face of rising rates
6. Grayscale Ethereum Almost a Double Since October 1
7. Institutional Investors Pull $31B from China Stocks and Bonds
WSJ The amount of money that institutional investors have in Chinese stocks and bonds has declined by more than $31 billion this year, through October, the biggest net outflow since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, official Chinese data show. By Lingling Wei
8. India building world’s largest renewable energy project in salt deserts bordering Pakistan-AP Press
The solar and wind energy project will be so big that it will be visible from space, according to developers of what is called the Khavda renewable energy park
Workers tighten screws on the support structure for solar panel installation at the construction site of Adani Green Energy Ltd’s renewable energy park in the salt desert of Karim Shahi village, near Khavda, Bhuj in Gujarat. (AP)
Rising from the bare expanse of the large salt desert that separates India from Pakistan is what will likely be the world’s largest renewable energy project when completed three years from now.
The solar and wind energy project will be so big that it will be visible from space, according to developers of what is called the Khavda renewable energy park, named after the village nearest to the project site.
At the site, thousands of laborers install pillars on which solar panels will be mounted. The pillars rise like perfectly aligned concrete cactuses that stretch as far as the eye can see. Other workers are building foundations for enormous wind turbines to be installed; they also are transporting construction material, building substations and laying wires for miles.
When completed, the project will be about as large as Singapore, spreading out over 726 square kilometers (280 square miles). The Indian government estimates it will cost at least $2.26 billion.
Shifting to renewable energy is a key issue at the ongoing COP28 climate summit. Some leaders have voiced support for a target of tripling renewable energy worldwide in any final agreement while curbing use of coal, oil and natural gas, which spew planet-warming gases into the atmosphere.
What makes this heavy industrial activity peculiar is that it’s taking place in the middle of the Rann of Kutch in western India’s Gujarat state. The Rann is an unforgiving salt desert and marshland at least 70 kilometers (43.5 miles) from the nearest human habitation but just a short army truck ride away from one of the world’s most tense international borders separating the two South Asian nations.
Philadelphia Inquirer by Nate File and Massarah MikatiSince the pandemic began, gun sales and permit issuances have risen sharply in Philadelphia and Pennsylvania, matching nationwide trends. In 2021, the city issued 52,230 new license-to-carry-permits, an increase of more than 600% from the year prior. In both 2020 and 2021, there were more than a million gun sales or transfers across Pennsylvania.
But a significant group within this class of new gun owners are people who are not excited to carry such powerful weapons. They are not gun enthusiasts or Second Amendment hard-liners, and many of them don’t fit Pew’s demographic profile for the typical American gun owner. Over and over, this group articulated their growing fear for their safety in Philadelphia, and how they felt like buying a gun was the only way left to protect themselves.
The kids and I listened to the first 25 minutes of this episode on ego versus mastery orientation in the car, and it sparked a great conversation.
“Why do kids love to learn? Because learning is fun. Why do kids go out on the golf course [and] want to play until the sun is set and they’re out there all night? Because it’s an amazing sport. It’s super fun. It’s just a fascinating…, get lost in the game. So, at what point in educational development do kids start to dislike school? Happens around third grade. What happens in third grade? We start giving kids grades.
So what happens is there’s a shift from a mastery orientation to what’s called an “ego orientation.” … When you ask people with an ego orientation, “Hey, why do you do what you do?” what you’ll often see is, “Well, I like to beat other people” or “I want to prove something. I need to prove myself to other people.” Or it’s some version of image management — like you’re trying to show off and prove yourself to others.”
1. November-5th Best 30 Day Performance Ever for AGG Bond Index
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright As we touched on in yesterday’s featured piece, the bond market has been on a tear since the end of October. A stark change in rate expectations surrounding Fed policy has helped buoy bonds to one of their best performances in three decades. The iShares US Core Bond ETF (AGG) returned a staggering 4.90% from November 1st through December 1st, which is its fifth-best 30-day performance in 30 years. The only other 30-day periods that were better took place at the end of 2008 (twice), April 2020, and December 2022. Coincidentally or not, this strong performance follows one of the worst 30-day periods for AGG which ended on October 3rd marking a decline of 4.55%. Another interesting observation is the similarity to last year which had one of the largest 30-day bond market declines ending in late September and one of the best 30-day rallies ending in early December, a very similar time frame to this year.
5. Retail investors are sitting out the stock resurgence-CNN Cash and Bonds ?
Analysis by Krystal Hur, CNN New York CNN — This year’s stock rally is back on course, but not everyone is on board.
The S&P 500 index in November notched its best monthly performance this year, snapping a three-month streak of steep losses as Wall Street became optimistic that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates. The revival in stocks, though off to a bumpy start in December, has been broad in reach, pulling up shares of everything from small caps to cyclical stocks.
Among the chief catalysts for the rally are swooning US Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.12% on Wednesday, well below the 5% it topped in late October, according to Tradeweb.
The glut of cash on the sidelines is “poised to fuel a significant rally in risk assets, offering investors an opportunity to potentially capitalize on improved sentiment and market dynamics,” wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in a note on Monday.
But analysts say that retail traders aren’t jumping into the stock market and might not anytime soon. Cash is still king for many.
The TD Ameritrade Investor Movement index for November, a measure of retail investor sentiment, revealed that the company’s clients were net sellers of stocks last month despite the market’s recovery. The index also recorded its lowest monthly reading since May.
“A lot of retail investors are just happy to not participate right now,” said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management.
There is a record $5.84 trillion parked in money market funds as of November 29, according to Investment Company Institute data. About $2.25 trillion of that cash is in retail money market funds.
While institutional investors are starting to pick at stocks poised to do well if the economy reaccelerates — explaining the rally’s widening breadth — retail traders are taking a more conservative approach, especially after seeing steep declines in their portfolios during last year’s sell-off, says Mulberry.
8. 3200 Venture Backed Companies Have Gone Out of Business in 2023
NY Times By Erin Griffith WeWork raised more than $11 billion in funding as a private company. Olive AI, a health care start-up, gathered $852 million. Convoy, a freight start-up, raised $900 million. And Veev, a home construction start-up, amassed $647 million.
In the last six weeks, they all filed for bankruptcy or shut down. They are the most recent failures in a tech start-up collapse that investors say is only beginning.
After staving off mass failure by cutting costs over the past two years, many once-promising tech companies are now on the verge of running out of time and money. They face a harsh reality: Investors are no longer interested in promises. Rather, venture capital firms are deciding which young companies are worth saving and urging others to shut down or sell.
It has fueled an astonishing cash bonfire. In August, Hopin, a start-up that raised more than $1.6 billion and was once valued at $7.6 billion, sold its main business for just $15 million. Last month, Zeus Living, a real estate start-up that raised $150 million, said it was shutting down. Plastiq, a financial technology start-up that raised $226 million, went bankrupt in May. In September, Bird, a scooter company that raised $776 million, was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange because of its low stock price. Its $7 million market capitalization is less than the value of the $22 million Miami mansion that its founder, Travis VanderZanden, bought in 2021.
But approximately 3,200 private venture-backed U.S. companies have gone out of business this year, according to data compiled for The New York Times by PitchBook, which tracks start-ups. Those companies had raised $27.2 billion in venture funding. PitchBook said the data was not comprehensive and probably undercounts the total because many companies go out of business quietly. It also excluded many of the largest failures that went public, such as WeWork, or that found buyers, like Hopin.
10. This Proven 5-Step Method Helps You Fall Asleep Fast and Wake Up Rested, According to a Psychology PhD
Whatever you do, don’t look at the clock.
BY MINDA ZETLIN, AUTHOR OF ‘CAREER SELF-CARE: FIND YOUR HAPPINESS, SUCCESS, AND FULFILLMENT AT WORK’@MINDAZETLIN
Even if you think you’re getting enough sleep, you may not be getting enough rest. That insight comes from Terry Lyles, a psychology PhD, a stress expert who coaches fighter pilots and firefighters, and co-author of the new book Becoming Invaluable. “Sleep is what our body needs,” he explains. “Rest is what our mind and soul need for the body to recover itself.” If you sleep but don’t rest, he explains, you’re likely to wake up the next morning still feeling tired.
So how do you make sure you’re getting enough of the right kind of sleep? Here’s Lyles’s recipe for a restful night.
1. Have enough nightlights. Your first step in this process begins way before you head for bed. You have to make sure there are enough nightlights so that if you need to get out of bed in the middle of the night, for instance to use the bathroom, you’ll be able to see your way there and back without having to turn on a light. “Don’t turn lights on,” he says. “Have nightlights set up in your house so that it’s low lit. Do what you have to do and get back in bed.” Turning on a light will jar you out of that restful state, making it harder for you to get back to sleep.
2. Put your phone away. You’ve likely heard by now that looking at any kind of electronic screen, including your phone or a television, can interfere with restful sleep. Once you’re in bed and ready to go to sleep, don’t look at your phone anymore. In particular, he says, if you wake up during the night for whatever reason, resist the temptation to grab your phone or turn on the television. “How quickly can you recover and go back to sleep?” he says. Turning on your phone or your television won’t help you do that. “The way to recover is to relax and know how to go back into that brainwave cycle that can get you back to an eventual REM sleep.” (REM, or rapid eye movement, sleep is the sleep stage where you dream, and it’s important for making you feel rested.)
3. Never look at the clock. If you’re accustomed to checking your bedside clock or your watch if you wake up during the night, Lyles recommends getting out of that habit immediately. “Never look at the clock at night,” Lyles advises. “It’s worse than your cellphone.” Looking at the clock causes your left brain to take over, he says. That can make you start thinking about all the things you need to do or want to do for work.
Eventually, he says, you’ll fall back asleep because you’re tired. “But now you’ve got crazy dreams. Now you wake up not rested, even though you slept,” he says.
4. Reset your focus. Lyles recommends meditation as a way to unwind and get into that sleep state. But when he says “meditation,” he doesn’t necessarily mean sitting cross-legged or reciting a mantra. “Meditation is misconstrued and misunderstood,” he says. “I teach athletes how to meditate in the midst of performance.”
Here’s an example, he says: “Everyone knows how to worry. That’s a trained muscle. Worry is negative meditation.” So, he says, change the object of your focus. “If you change the object to something awesome, something you’re grateful for, someone who loves you or whom you love? Boom! That’s meditation.”
Focusing on the wrong thing causes your body to release cortisol (sometimes called “the stress hormone”). “Now we wind up with all this imagery and distractability, and we’re afraid,” Lyles says. To stop this process, he recommends having a visualization prepared that you can mentally grab when you need it. “The mountains, the beach, it doesn’t matter,” he says. “Go there and take it in visually. Keep your eyes closed and breathe yourself back. Before long, you’re back asleep.”
5. Practice “4-1-4 breath.” “You can actually breathe yourself to sleep,” Lyles says. This is because slowing down your breath slows your heartbeat and signals to your body that there is nothing to fear.
Lyles recommends “4-1-4 breath.” Breathe in for four seconds by counting to yourself “One one thousand, two one thousand,” and so on. Then hold your breath for one second, and breathe out for four seconds. By repeating that cycle, he says, “you literally put yourself to sleep because your body goes into that resting physical mode.”
Lyles says he teaches this approach to athletes lying on floor mats in a gym, and they usually fall asleep within five minutes. “We’re all fatigued, we’re all overused,” he says. “If you put your body in a restful state, your body will fall asleep. You don’t have to put yourself to sleep–it will go into sleep mode.”
There’s a growing audience of Inc.com readers who receive a daily text from me with a self-care or motivational micro-challenge or tip. Often, they text me back and we wind up in a conversation. (Want to learn more? Here’s some information about the texts and a special invitation to an extended free trial.) Many are entrepreneurs or business leaders and they understand the importance of sleep and rest if they want to do their best work. These simple steps can help you get more of both.
