TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 21 2024

1. Technology ETF RSI 80

For Technical Traders…Short-term RSI indicator on XLK …..From Dave Lutz Jones Trading XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, 14-day RSI now above 80 for the first time since September 2020.  It suffered a 15% drawdown in 2 weeks back then.

2. Semiconductors vs. Software 2024.

SMH (semis) vs. IGV (software)

3. Software Valuations Below 2020 Trough

4. Bespoke Investment Group-Nearing 10x Sales for Large-Cap Tech

In today’s Chart of the Day we took a look at valuations across the Tech sector and how things stand relative to historical extremes.  (It’s an eye-opening read, so make sure to check it out if you haven’t seen it yet.)

Below is a quick look at trailing 12-month price to sales ratios (P/S) over the last five years for the large-cap S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2,000 along with each index’s respective Technology sector.  As shown, the Russell 2,000’s price to sales ratio is just 1.25x, which is slightly below its average P/S ratio over the last five years.  The Russell 2,000 Technology sector’s price to sales ratio is higher at 2.8x, but that’s still below the 2.9x P/S ratio for the S&P 500 as a whole.  Incredibly, the S&P 500 Tech sector’s price to sales ratio has pushed all the way up to 9.8x, which is well above its high at the peak in late 2021.  A 9.8x multiple is attractive if you’re looking at price to earnings (P/E), but for Tech stocks to be trading at 9.8x annual sales, that’s just a remarkably high number.  (As mentioned, we’ve got further coverage of this topic in today’s Chart of the Day if you’d like to read more of our thoughts.)

Below is a look at the stocks in the large-cap Russell 1,000 that have seen the biggest increase in their price to sales (P/S) ratios since the current bull market began on 10/12/22.  As shown, NVIDIA (NVDA) has seen its share price rise more than 1,000% during this bull market, but its P/S ratio has made 32 turns higher from 9.7x up to 41.9x!  That’s by far the biggest jump of any stock in the index.  Of the 30 stocks shown, the average P/S ratio has risen 9.6 points from 8.6x up to 18.2x, and most stocks on the list are Tech stocks.

5. The Bear Market in Diversified Portfolio Investing

Bloomberg Lu WangThe numbers are stark. Money managers who obeyed the financial industry’s age-old wisdom to divide investments across markets and geographies are on an epic losing streak versus those who simply bought the S&P 500 and sat still. In one example, out of roughly 370 asset-allocation funds tracked by Morningstar Inc., just one has managed to beat the index since 2009.

6. Construction of New U.S. Homes Fell 5.5% in May to Lowest Level in 4 Years.

7. Solar High Use Hours…. Solar punches in and punches out-Moses Sternstein

One of the many challenges of relying on “renewable” energy sources is that they are unreliable. Solar energy does not work at night, and wind energy does not work if there is no wind.

It’s intuitively obvious, but I found a visualization that really drives the point home.

Take a look at California’s fuel mix, over a 24 hour period:


Solar energy powers 70% of CA’s consumption at its peak . . . and 0% at its nadirs.

On the one hand, this is a very impressive accomplishment. That’s a lot of solar energy doing work. CA is basically incapable of building anything, so the fact that they got this much solar online is no small feat.

On the other hand, you can see why skeptics think that LNG in the near-term (and maybe nuclear in the longer-term) will have to be part of the picture. Solar energy is entirely useless between the hours of 8pm and 6am. For 14 hours per day though, solar is a beast.

Again, that doesn’t mean that battery storage won’t improve, or that we won’t develop clever ways of optimizing for solar when it’s available. There are many companies focused on various iterations of both of these solutions.

But it sure seems like solar has a long way to go before it becomes the thing.

8. Record Number of Elections 2024

Jack Ablin Cresset

9. 7’9 Inch BBall Player Coming to Florida

10. A cardiologist shares one simple change you can make to your diet to protect your heart health-Business Insider

Gabby Landsverk 

Jun 19, 2024, 8:11 AM EDTSugary beverages can add about 500 calories a day to your diet, increasing your risk of heart-health issues. Start by cutting back on sodas, sweetened coffees, and alcohol. Oleh_Slobodeniuk/Getty Images

  • A cardiologist said the biggest heart-health mistake is waiting too long to make healthy changes.
  • Diet and exercise play a big role in preventing heart disease, heart attacks, and strokes later on.
  • A simple way to make your diet more heart-healthy is to switch up your drinks first. 

If you want to live a long life, the best time to pay attention to your heart health is right now, according to a doctor.

The biggest mistake people make about heart health is waiting until it’s too late to take action, Dr. Gregory Katz, a cardiologist at NYU Langone, said.

“People think it’s something that happens suddenly. Sometimes they look up and are like, ‘How the hell did I have a heart attack or stroke?’ The seeds are planted very early on,” Katz told Business Insider.

Your habits today, such as eating well and exercising, can make a big difference in protecting your heart and preventing heart disease, heart attacks, and strokes later in life, he said.

While medication can help, patients sometimes put off taking drugs that could help them manage their risk in favor of trying to change their habits first.

“Taking medication is not a moral failing. That’s an important message,” Katz said.

The trick is focusing on changes you can actually stick to, he added.

“People are not honest with themselves about what lifestyle changes they’re actually going to make,” Katz said. “A large percentage of patients tell themselves they’ll make changes, and suddenly five years later, their cholesterol is still high.”

To make heart-healthy habits stick, focus on making small, sustainable changes — one of the simplest is reducing your sugar intake from drinks, Katz said.

Cutting liquid calories can be transformative

High cholesterol and other heart-health risks are linked to diets high in processed food, added sugar, red meat, and saturated fat, which are common for the average American.

In contrast, diets for better heart health involve eating lots of veggies, whole grains, legumes, and unsaturated fats such as olive oil, which help lower your cholesterol.

But it can be tough to transform your diet overnight, and making too many changes at once can backfire

One of the simplest ways to make your diet more heart-healthy is to cut back on sweetened drinks or boozy beverages, Katz said.

“Drinking calories and drinking alcohol are the biggest modifiable risk factors. The number of people I see drinking 500 calories a day blows my mind,” he said. “Just because it’s simple doesn’t make it easy.”

Evidence suggests that sodas, juices, sugary coffees, and cocktails can all contribute to health risks such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and cancer.

A dietitian previously told BI a good strategy to cut back on sweet drinks is to replace them with alternatives such as:

  • seltzer with a splash of fruit juice
  • unsweetened tea
  • water flavored with citrus or herbs such as mint

Swapping out liquid calories is a good first step to improving key factors for better heart health (and a longer life), such as healthy blood pressure and cholesterol levels and stable blood sugar.