TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 19 2024

1. NVDA Insiders Sell $700m in Shares…1/3 After May Earnings


2. 2024 Mag 1

Barrons – by Allan Sloan

3. NVDA vs. MAGS (Mag 7) ETF

This chart compares NVDA to Mag 7….straight up in 2024

4. S&P Top 5 Market Cap Trillions….Bottom 406 Market Cap Below $100B

Ritholtz Wealth Chart

5. Top 20 S&P Holdings Returns 2024

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

6. Uranium Bull

Uranium vs. Lithium Chart…..LIT Lithium ETF about to make new lows.

7. Millionaires Fleeing China and….UK???

By Devon Pendleton-(Bloomberg)
 The UK is on track to lose 9,500 millionaires this year, more than any country in the world except China, according to a new report on the migration intentions of the world’s wealthy.
It’s more than double the number that left the country in
2023 and lags only China, which is expected to lose 15,200 millionaires this year, according to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, authored by migration advisory Henley & Partners.
“As the world grapples with a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and social upheaval, millionaires are voting with their feet in record numbers,”
Dominic Volek, Henley’s group head of private clients, said Tuesday in a statement.
Read More: Britain’s Rich Race to Save Their Wealth From Election Hit The report’s numbers refer to net arrivals and exits, reflecting where millionaire populations are growing versus shrinking. Henley’s research partner New World Wealth estimated the migration figures based on relocation data, investment migration program statistics and interviews with intermediaries in the wealth industry.
The estimate comes as Britain girds for an election in just over two weeks where the opposition Labour Party, which is advocating for some higher taxes on the wealthy, has about a 20- point lead over the ruling Conservatives.
The recent uptick in departures of Britain’s ultra-wealthy residents is the acceleration of a trend that began around the time of Brexit. From 2017 through last year, the country lost
16,500 millionaires to migration, according to the report. The exodus is a reversal for the country that for decades served as a magnet for rich families from Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, who mainly flocked to London.
More than 7% of the millionaires projected to move globally this year will be leaving the UK, the report shows. That reflects “a steady accumulation of factors” that are making the country less appealing to the rich, including Brexit, the energy crisis from the war in Ukraine and the subsequent rise in inflation, said Hannah White, chief executive officer of the Institute for Government in London.
“The outflow of high-net-worth individuals already generated by the economic and political context is now being accelerated by policy decisions ahead of the election,” she wrote in an analysis accompanying the Henley report.

8. What Retail Apocalypse? Shopping Centers Are Making a Comeback-NYT

By Joe Gose-NY Times 
Vacancy is the lowest it has been in two decades, at 5.4 percent, according to a recent report. The properties are thriving even as retailers like Macy’s and Express shutter many stores.
Shopping center landlords have found themselves in a wholly unfamiliar position: For the first time in 20 years, demand for retail space outstrips supply.
That demand has soared recently and, after years of muted construction and a purge of weak-performing properties, met a retail market with less available space. Properties that survived the purge signed up tenants that would draw more shoppers and give them more reason to linger. That meant more restaurants and venues that promote recreational experiences, like ax throwing and, more recently, pickleball. It also meant less space for traditional retailers that weren’t performing as well, like bookstores and apparel brands.
Because of those moves, “there’s not as much redundancy from tenants, and landlords are creating much more robust tenant mixes,” said Barrie Scardina, president of Americas retail services, agency leasing and alliances for Cushman & Wakefield, a real estate firm. “We are seeing some of the most productive occupancy recorded in the last 10 years.”
Shopping center vacancy is the lowest it has been in two decades, at 5.4 percent, Cushman & Wakefield said in a recent report, and the edge in lease negotiations has shifted from tenants back to landlords.

Colliers-Anjee Solanki,new%20deliveries%2C%20according%20to%20Colliers.

9. Home Prices Stagnate in Florida and Texas as Supply Soars -Redfin

Redfin by Lily Katz

  • The number of homes for sale in Cape Coral, FL and North Port, FL surged roughly 50% from a year earlier in March—more than anywhere else in the country. And in McAllen, TX, supply jumped 25%.
  • Housing supply is soaring because both states have been building a lot of homes, which is limiting home price growth. Buyer demand is also lackluster because many people are priced out. And in Florida, an insurance crisis is throwing a wrench into deals.
  • Nationwide, new listings slowed in March as mortgage rates remained elevated. The Fed recently warned rates are likely to stay high longer than expected.

On the west coast of Florida, housing supply is surging, sellers are cutting their asking prices and the time it takes to sell a home is soaring—all at a faster rate than anywhere else in the U.S. The story is similar in parts of Texas.
Florida and Texas have been building more homes than anywhere else in the country, partly to accommodate the flood of newcomers that showed up during the pandemic homebuying boom. But the boom is over, in part because many people have been priced out. Now, homes are sitting on the market and price growth is stagnating.
Here’s how these trends showed up in U.S. housing-market data for March, which covers 85 major metropolitan areas: 

  • Supply: Of the 10 metro areas that posted the largest year-over-year increases in supply, six are in Florida and two are in Texas. Cape Coral, FL saw the biggest jump in homes for sale (51%), followed by North Port-Sarasota, FL (48%), Fort Lauderdale, FL (30%), Tampa, FL (29%), McAllen, TX (25%), Orlando, FL (23%), Knoxville, TN (23%), Dallas (20%), West Palm Beach, FL (20%) and Cincinnati (17%).
  • Price drops: Of the 10 metro areas where sellers were most likely to cut their list prices, five are in Florida and two are in Texas. In North Port-Sarasota, 48% of listings had a price cut—the highest share in the country. Next came Tampa (44%), Indianapolis (43%), Cape Coral (41%), Denver (37%), Orlando (35%), Portland, OR (34%), Houston (33%), San Antonio (33%) and Jacksonville, FL (33%).
  • Prices: Median sale prices fell from a year earlier in three metros, one of which is in Florida and one of which is in Texas: North Port-Sarasota (-4.6%), Oklahoma City (-1.5%) and San Antonio (-0.3%). Prices climbed least in Austin, TX (0%), El Paso, TX (0.5%), Memphis, TN (0.7%), Tampa (1.1%), Salt Lake City (1.1%), Omaha, NE (1.2%) and Charleston, SC (1.2%).
  • Speed of sales: Of the 10 metros that saw the biggest upticks in median days on market, two are in Florida and two are in Texas: In Cape Coral, the typical home took 31 more days to sell than a year earlier—the largest jump in the nation. Next came North Port-Sarasota (20), McAllen (20), New Orleans (18), Tulsa, OK (13), Cincinnati (13), San Antonio (10), Greensboro, NC (8), Honolulu (7) and Knoxville (7).

“Out-of-town homebuyers no longer see Florida as a place to get amazing value. Now they’re moving to North Carolina or Tennessee to get a good deal. Many local blue-collar workers have been priced out of homeownership, too,” said Eric Auciello, a local Redfin sales manager. “Two years ago, the North Port metro was one of the most competitive housing markets in the country because it was affordable for remote workers and there was a shortage of homes for sale, but none of those things are true today. Sarasota, in particular, has been overvalued for decades, and the chickens have finally come to roost. The Tampa metro has been faring a bit better.”

10. The intentional stance -Seth’s Blog

Dan Dennett explained that it began as a survival mechanism. It’s important to predict how someone else is going to behave. That tiger might be a threat, that person from the next village might have something to offer.

If we simply wait and see, we might encounter an unwelcome or even fatal surprise. The shortcut that the intentional stance offers us is, “if I were them, I might have this in mind.” Assuming intent doesn’t always work, but it works often enough that all humans embrace it.

There’s the physical stance (a rock headed toward a window is probably going to break it) and the design stance (this ATM is supposed to dispense money, let’s look for the slot.) But the most useful and now problematic shortcut is imagining that others are imagining.

There used to be a chicken in an arcade in New York that played tic tac toe. The best way to engage with the chicken game was to imagine that the chicken had goals and strategies and that he was ‘hoping’ you would go there, not there.

Of course, chickens don’t do any hoping, any more than chess computers are trying to get you to fall into a trap when they set up an en passant. But we take the stance because it’s useful. It’s not an accurate portrayal of the state of the physical entity, but it might be a useful way to make predictions.

There’s a certain sort of empathy here, extending ourselves to another entity and imagining that it has intent. But there’s also a lack of empathy, because we assume that the entity is just like us… but also a chicken.

The challenge kicks in when our predictions of agency and intent don’t match up with what happens next.

AI certainly seems like it has earned both a design and an intentional stance from us. Even AI researchers treat their interactions with a working LLM as if they’re talking to a real person, perhaps a little unevenly balanced, but a person nonetheless.

The intentional stance brings rights and responsibilities, though. We don’t treat infants as though they want something the way we might, which makes it easier to live with their crying. Successful dog trainers don’t imagine that dogs are humans with four legs–they boil down behavior to inputs and outputs, and use operant conditioning, not reasoning, to change behavior.

Every day, millions of people are joining the early adopters who are giving AI systems the benefit of the doubt, a stance of intent and agency. But it’s an illusion, and the AI isn’t ready for rights and can’t take responsibility.

The collision between what we believe and what will happen is going to be significant, and we’re not even sure how to talk about it.

The intentional stance is often useful, but it’s not always accurate. When it stops being useful, we need to use a different model for how to understand and what to expect.

JUNE 17, 2024