Topley’s Top 10 – October 02, 2023

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1. 60/40 Portfolio -5% in Two Months.

2. U.S. 30yr Treasury Yield saw their Biggest Quarterly Climb Since Q1 2009

3. Financial Conditions (lending) Significantly Tighter

From Callum Thomas chart storm https://www.chartstorm.info/

Source: @RealAlpineMacro via Daily Chartbook

4. Gasoline Futures Pullback

Energy: US gasoline futures fell further on Thursday.

Source: The Daily Shot  https://dailyshotbrief.com/

5. Home Prices Charging Back to New Highs

Bespoke Investment Group Case Shiller home price data published by S&P CoreLogic was released earlier this week for July 2023 (it comes out on a two-month lag).  As shown below, 19 of 20 cities posted month-over-month gains, with the National index up 0.6% MoM and up 0.98% year-over-year.  Las Vegas saw the biggest monthly gain at 1.12%, while Portland was the only city to see a monthly decline.

The big news from the report was that the National index and ten of twenty cities once again hit new all-time highs, erasing declines seen from mid-2022 through early 2023.  The National index saw home prices fall 5% from its prior high last June to its low this January, but it has bounced back by 6% since then to notch new highs.  The ten cities to also make new highs were: New York, Minneapolis, Miami, Detroit, DC, Cleveland, Chicago, Charlotte, Boston, and Atlanta.

Four cities remain 5%+ below their prior highs: Phoenix (-6.7%), Las Vegas (-7.2%), Seattle (-10.1%), and San Francisco (-10.8%).

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/home-prices-charging-back-to-new-highs

6. Car Insurance the Largest Year Over Year Increase in 50 Years.

BARRONS Nationally, the average cost of car insurance—a mandatory expense for most U.S. households—is nearly $1,700 annually, up 17% through the first half of 2023. Auto insurance now eats up about 2.4% of average household income, according to Insurify’s Mid-Year Auto Insurance Trends Report.   That’s a familiar lament, considering that the annual inflation rate for U.S. motor-vehicle insurance hit 19.1% in August, the largest year-over-year increase in nearly 50 years. And there is little relief in sight: Prices are likely to keep climbing well into 2024, along with the number and size of claims, ensuring another rough year for auto insurance buyers and sellers.

J.D. Power found in the second quarter that nearly 15% of vehicle owners had allowed their insurance coverage to lapse at some point in the previous six months, with nearly 30% having cited an inability to pay as the primary reason.  By Megan Leonhardt  https://www.barrons.com/articles/car-insurance-premiums-dba3432b?mod=past_editions

7. Bad weather has pushed the price of orange juice to the highest level ever, see chart below.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner

8. Construction Workers Historically Biggest Slowdown in Recession….New Highs

https://www.barrons.com/articles/economy-job-market-inflation-interest-rates-fed-7c567b51?mod=past_editions

9. Weight-Loss Drugs Estimated to Save Airlines Millions

· Slimmer passengers would mean less fuel needed for flights

· If flyers lose 10 pounds, United saves $80 million: Jefferies

By Mary Schlangenstein

Airlines and planemakers obsess about reducing jet-fuel consumption by constantly finding new ways to reduce aircraft weight. They may have new allies in Ozempic and other similar slimming medications.

United Airlines Holdings Inc. would save $80 million a year if the average passenger weight falls by 10 pounds, Sheila Kahyaoglu, a Jefferies Financial analyst, estimated in a report Friday. Her work was part of a broader Jefferies analysis of public enthusiasm for the drug and potential beneficiaries of its use.

There could be a more than $100 billion global market for such medicines, with sales climbing quickly through the end of the decade, the review concluded. Ozempic is made by Novo Nordisk A/S.

Weight is a major concern for airlines because the more a plane weighs, the more fuel it burns. Fuel and labor are the two largest expenses for carriers, with fuel accounting for about 25%. Over the years airlines have used a variety of methods to reduce pounds on flights, like removing magazines and switching to lower-weight dishes, utensils and beverage carts.

If the average passenger lost 10 pounds, this would trim 1,790 pounds from every United flight, implying a savings of 27.6 million gallons a year, the analyst estimated. At an average 2023 fuel price of $2.89 a gallon, United would save $80 million a year. That equates to 20 cents of earnings per share, or 2% of Jefferies’s full-year earnings estimate of $9.50 a share, she said.

“This benefit should be recognized similarly across airlines,” Kahyaoglu wrote.

Weight Loss Drugs: Ozempic, Wegovy Could Reduce Airlines Costs – Bloomberg

10. The Daily Stoic Blog-You Can’t Really Hear this Enough.

One of the most highlighted passages in the digital version of The Daily Stoic is the December 9th quote from Seneca:

“Were all the geniuses of history to focus on this single theme, they could never fully express their bafflement at the darkness of the human mind. No person would give up even an inch of their estate, and the slightest dispute with a neighbor can mean hell to pay; yet we easily let others encroach on our lives—worse, we often pave the way for those who will take it over. No person hands out their money to passersby, but to how many do each of us hand out our lives! We’re tight-fisted with property and money, yet think too little of wasting time, the one thing about which we should all be the toughest misers.”

It makes sense. Property, money, possessions—these things are tangible. We can clearly see when they are taken from us. Time, on the other hand, is more abstract. When our time is eaten up by other people or frittered away on trivial matters, we often don’t even notice.

In The Daily Stoic, the whole month of December is themed around Memento Mori (which you can get a history of here) because the year is ending. With Halloween around the corner, here in the Daily Stoic Email we’re doing a similar deep dive into that theme for the entire month of October. Because you really can’t hear it enough: We can’t live as if we have forever, as if we have unlimited time.

Memento Mori.

Which is an easy concept to nod along to while reading this email. Or listening to a podcast. Or double tap when you see on Instagram.

But how long does that stay with you? How quickly do other thoughts fill the space? How quickly do you go back to frittering your time away?

Will you be able to call upon that reminder in life’s stressful moments?

Different generations have attempted to keep the idea of Memento Mori at hand in different ways. The result can be seen across generations of writing, art, music, jewelry and ritual.

Roman generals employed aides to remind them of this fact at their moments of greatest triumph. Philosophers have kept skulls on their desks for millennia. Beneath the church of Santa Maria della Concezione dei Cappuccini in Rome, there is a crypt built in 1630, decorated with the remains of 4,000 friars. In the middle, there is a plaque inscribed in three different languages that states, “What you are now, we once were; what we are now, you shall be.”

They all were trying to remember: We can go at any moment. We must not waste time.

While times change and it may no longer be practical to keep an aide to whisper death in your ear, the benefits of memento mori remain.

That’s why we created our own additions to the rich history of memento mori, including:

The memento mori medallion which was inspired by the French painter Philippe de Champaign’s famous painting “Still Life with a Skull,” which showed the three essentials of existence: the tulip (life), the skull (death), and the hourglass (time).

The memento mori signet ring which shows Marcus Aurelius’s timeless words: “You could leave life right now…” leaving the wearer to repeat to themselves the final half of the quote “…Let that determine what you do and say and think.”

And the memento mori pendant which shows the hourglass, skull, and tulip with the words Memento Mori. A reminder constantly touching the skin around your neck.

All these were created to remind us that we must live NOW, while there is still time.

It’s a reminder that generations have been attempting to keep at hand and for good reason…

https://dailystoic.com/

Topley’s Top 10 – September 29, 2023

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1. Energy XLE Making Run at 2014 Levels

2. Semiconductors Did Break the One-Year Line I Sent Earlier in the Week

3. Last 3 Months Energy XLE +16.9% vs. Semiconductors SMH -6.3%

4. Monster Beverage Best Stock Performer in 25 Years

One of my favorite morning newsletters The Daily Dirt Nap https://www.dailydirtnap.com/ mentioned Monster stock so I hit up chart….…A series of lower highs and close below 200-day

5. 30-Year Mortgage 7.83%

6. U.S. Pending Home Sales Index -44%

7. History of Government Shutdowns and Stock Market-Vanguard Group

Shutdown: A history of mixed results for markets and the economy  Although there can be market volatility during a shutdown, history reveals no clear relationship between shutdowns and market returns. Markets might experience heightened volatility in response to the uncertainty in Washington. However, markets have historically had mixed reactions to government shutdowns, with equities finishing in positive territory more than half the time (as noted in the accompanying chart). In the seven instances where shutdowns have lasted 10 days or more, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell four times within the shutdown period and rose three times. The worst return, –4.4%, came during an 11-day shutdown in 1979.

Staying the course during a government shutdown (vanguard.com)

8. JPMorgan Chase to offer 6% interest rate for minimum of $5 million in high-end CD product: WSJ

By Steve Gelsi Marketwatch

The 6% rate for a six-month CD is a step up from JPM’s 5% offer for a minimum of $100,000.

Those wealthy enough to park $5 million in a certificate of deposit for six months will earn a lofty 6% interest rate at JPMorgan Chase & Co., The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday in an exclusive story.

There’s an important catch with the certificate of deposit, which has been a popular product with banks from people looking to cash in on higher interest rates than available on traditional savings accounts.

To qualify for the 6% CD, money must come from outside JPMorgan Chase JPM, 1.32%, in a bid to draw in fresh capital into the bank, the WSJ report said. The CD’s maximum deposit level is $100 million, with the offering ending on Saturday.

Also read: JPMorgan Chase names new investment-bank boss and sets up digital bank in flurry of personnel moves

Adam Stockton, managing director at bank data provider Curinos, told the newspaper that banks have been typically offering interest rates of about 2.5% to draw in regular customer deposits, but have been offering 4% to 5% for new wealth-management deposits.

For its part, JPMorgan Chase has been offering 5% to retail banking customers with a minimum of $100,000, while customers who put in less than $100,000 earn 4%. Meanwhile, the bank only pays 0.1% interest for interest-bearing checking and savings accounts, the WSJ said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jpmorgan-chase-to-offer-6-interest-rate-for-minimum-of-5-million-in-high-end-cd-product-wsj-f4ef25de

9. Bottom 50th Percentile See Large Increase in Net Worth

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/09/27/animal-spirits-house-poor/

10. A Harvard brain expert shares 6 things he never does in order to stay ‘sharp, energized and healthy’-CNBC

Christopher Palmer, Contributor@CHRISPALMERMD

As a psychiatrist and neuroscience researcher, I’ve spent 27 years studying the surprising connections between our mental health, physical health and brain health.

I’ve also learned a lot from my personal journey. In my 20s, I was diagnosed with metabolic syndrome, a combination of disorders that increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes.

But by making some lifestyle changes, I was able to overcome it in just a few months. To continue staying sharp, energized and healthy, here are six things I never do:

1. I never load up on high-carb foods.

Diet plays a role in obesity, diabetes and heart health, but most people don’t realize that it also has profound effects on the brain.

I reversed my metabolic syndrome by committing to a low-carb diet. Generally, low-carb diets eliminate or cut back on grains, baked goods, sweets and fruits that are high in sugar or starch.

I typically have eggs for breakfast. Throughout the day, I eat vegetables, fruits, and a good amount of meat, fish and poultry. This has helped me maintain a healthy weight and keep my blood sugar low.

2. I never take more than 2 days off from exercising.  

A study of 1.2 million Americans found that exercise is good for mental health.

For me, the optimal workout is 45 minutes, three to five times a week. In addition to stretching and core exercises, I lift weights, run, cycle, swim and take brisk walks.

I don’t push myself to exercise every day, but I also never take more than two days off from aerobic activities.

3. I never get less than 7 hours of sleep a night.

Poor sleep can result in cognitive impairment that might lead to a greater risk of Alzheimer’s disease over time. It can also impact mood and contribute to depression.

When you sleep, your body enters a “rest and repair” state. The brain undergoes many changes in neurons that play a role in learning and memory consolidation. Without sleep, cells can fall into a state of disrepair and begin to malfunction.

The amount of sleep people need varies, but I always get in at least seven hours a night. I’m usually in bed by 8 p.m. or 9 p.m., and wake up at 4 a.m. The “early to bed, early to rise” routine makes me sharper and more focused throughout the day.

4. I never drink alcohol.

I used to drink regularly, and would sometimes have a glass of wine in the evenings to relax.

But in June 2020, I decided to give it up for one month. Within weeks, I noticed improvements in my sleep and productivity, so I decided to quit drinking altogether. What’s shocking is that I don’t miss it at all.

This doesn’t mean you should give up drinking completely, but the benefits that we once thought alcohol conferred are now being questioned. In a study of over 36,000 people, consuming even one to two drinks a day was associated with brain atrophy or shrinkage.

5. I’m never done with self-growth.

Exploring your emotional health through psychotherapy can be life-changing. It can help you understand who you are and what you want from life, which will strengthen your sense of purpose.

Psychotherapy that focuses on empathy, relationships, social skills or improving cognitive abilities can strengthen brain circuits that have been underdeveloped.

6. I never lose sight of my purpose in life.  

Humans are driven to have a sense of purpose. I believe this is hardwired into our brains. When people lack a sense of purpose, it can induce a chronic stress response and lead to poor cognitive function.  

Remember that purpose is multifaceted. It involves relationships with other people, yourself and your community. We should all aim to have least one role in society that allows us to contribute and feel valued.

This can be as simple as having household chores, or take the form of being a student, employee, caretaker, volunteer or mentor.

Christopher Palmer, MD is a professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School and the author of “Brain Energy: A Revolutionary Breakthrough in Understanding Mental Health.” For the past 27 years, he has been an academic physician with administrative, research, educational, and clinical roles. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisPalmerMD.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/harvard-brain-expert-shares-what-he-never-does-in-order-to-stay-sharp-energized-healthy.html

Topley’s Top 10 – September 28, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. S&P Back to June Levels…7 Points Over 200day

2. Safe Bonds….TLT -40% Since the Beginning of 2022

3. Everything Falling Since Fed Began Raising Rates Except Largest Stocks

4. Mega-Cap Tech Failed to Make New Highs on Rally

5. Transports -11.5% Right on 200 Day Moving Average

6. I showed Staple Sector ETF Chart Yesterday….Another Defensive Sector Underperforming in Pullback ..Utility Stocks New Lows

Huge underperformance yesterday down almost -2% on day

7. Where Are Retail Investors Putting Their Money?

Zerohedge By far the most popular strategy for retail investors is dividend investing with 50% of the respondents selecting it as something they’re interested in.

Dividends can help supplement incomes and come with tax benefits (especially for lower income investors or if the dividend is paid out into a tax-deferred account), and can be a popular choice during more inflationary times.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/heres-what-retail-investors-are-most-interested-buying

8. Uranium….Making Run at 2021 Highs

www.stockcharts.com

9. NY Post -More workers returning to NYC office buildings than previously reported: study

By Steve Cuozzo

in Big Apple offices than the most often-cited “barometer” of attendance would have you believe.

The Partnership for New York City released a survey on Monday claiming that 58% of Manhattan office workers are at their desks on an average weekday.

That’s up from 52% in late January 2023 and 49% in September 2022.

The latest data are much higher than the Kastle Systems Back-to-Work Barometer’s, which most recently reported “metro” New York occupancy at 50.1% — and has usually cited even lower attendance in its weekly postings.

The Partnership further found that the “rate of return” to offices was 72% of pre-pandemic levels.

That means that offices were on average 72% occupied —  which is a different metric than the percentage of workers who go to the office.

Just about anyone who works in an office noticed a growing degree of remote-work absenteeism long before the 2020 lockdown.

In fact, prior to the pandemic, the Partnership explained, Manhattan offices were on average only 80% occupied on any given day — due to vacations, business travel and off-site meetings, among other reasons for absences.

“So the actual drop off in office attendance since 2019 is much smaller than has been previously assumed,” the Partnership said.

https://nypost.com/2023/09/25/more-workers-returning-to-nyc-offices-than-previously-reported-study/

10. 8 Signs of Emotional Maturity-Very Well Mind Blog

By Wendy Wisner 

Wendy Wisner is a health and parenting writer, lactation consultant (IBCLC), and mom to two awesome sons.

Emotional maturity is a person’s ability to manage their emotions and life stressors in a healthy manner.1 Emotional maturity plays an important role in relationships, as it helps us resolve conflicts and enter into satisfying and secure relationships.2 The American Psychological Association (APA) defines emotional maturity as “a high and appropriate level of emotional control and expression.”3

“Emotionally mature people are self-aware, attuned to their emotions, and know how to manage them,” says Eri Nakagami, Ph.D., LCSW, clinical director of Embark Behavioral Health West LA Outpatient Clinic. “Emotionally mature individuals continually work on various emotional and cognitive skills to help them cope with stressful or adverse situations and reach successful resolutions to life’s challenges.”

8 Signs of Emotional Maturity

First, let’s look at the top 8 most prevalent signs of emotional maturity, according to experts.

You Are Empathetic

Being emotionally mature means that you are able to take the focus off of your own needs and viewpoints at times, and focus on the emotional realities of others.

“Someone who has emotional intelligence is able to have empathy and show compassion to others,” says Lisa Lawless, Ph.D., a clinical psychologist at Holistic Wisdom, Inc. “Their thoughts and feelings are able to be expressed in a healthy and constructive manner, ensuring that they treat others with respect and require it from others.”4

You’re Able to Recognize and Share Your Feelings

People who’ve developed emotional maturity are able to recognize their feelings, and also have an understanding of what is motivating them to feel the way they do.5 This is the basis of being able to manage your feelings in a healthy way, explains Dr. Nakagami. “How a person feels can help them understand why they are reacting the way they are instead of taking out their feelings inappropriately or suppressing them,” she describes.

You’re Flexible and Open-Minded

Another important trait of an emotionally mature individual is that they are not rigid in their thinking. Life is inherently challenging, and an emotionally mature person will respond to life’s challenges with an open, creative mind.5

“A person who has developed a strong emotional maturity is flexible and open-minded by being adaptable to change,” Dr. Lawless says. They are able to consider ideas that are different from their own, which enhances their ability to compromise with others, Dr. Lawless adds.

You’re Able to Form Secure, Healthy Relationships

An important sign of emotional maturity is the ability to maintain healthy and secure relationships with others. This is often more easily obtained in individuals who have developed a secure attachment style, says Sefora Janel Ray, MFT, marriage and family therapist at Therapy to Thrive.

“Secure attachment refers to a deep sense of trust, safety, and connection that individuals develop during their early years through consistent and responsive caregiving,” says Ray. “When I think about emotional maturity, I see its strong connection with secure attachment, forming a foundation for healthy and balanced interpersonal relationships.”2

Of course, a secure attachment style is dependent to some extent on the type of care you were given in childhood by your parents. Thankfully, though, research has found that developing a more secure attachment style later in life is possible—in fact, simply having the desire to develop a more secure attachment style can help you move in that direction.6

You Take Responsibility for Your Actions

Emotionally mature people consider how their actions will affect others and will take responsibility if their actions end up causing any type of harm. “Those with a high amount of emotional maturity are able to easily apologize, take responsibility and be accountable for their actions by understanding and accepting consequences,” Dr. Lawless says. “In addition, they change harmful behavior as they see mistakes as an opportunity to grow and learn.”5

You Set Healthy Boundaries

Being able to set and maintain healthy boundaries is a cornerstone of being emotionally mature. That means that you are able to declare what your emotional boundaries are to yourself and others, and that you are able to hold tight to those boundaries when faced with conflict.

That doesn’t mean that setting healthy boundaries will come easily for you, but you will be able to recognize their importance, Dr. Nakagami says. You can think of setting boundaries as a form of self-care, self-love, and self-respect, she assures. “Not only are boundaries for oneself but also for others to know you have certain lines that you do not allow others to cross.”

You’ve Able to Resolve Conflicts

There’s no escaping the fact that conflicts are going to arise in life, but it’s a matter of how you handle them. Emotionally mature people will seek to resolve conflicts, rather than prolong their existence, or thrive off of their chaos.5

Learning how to manage conflicts means developing some specific emotional and behavioral skills. “Those who are emotionally mature can resolve conflicts effectively, as they are excellent active listeners and are skilled at finding resolutions,” says Dr. Lawless. “When they encounter aggression or manipulation, they are able to address it respectfully and know when to disengage.”

You Can Manage Stress In Healthy Ways

Another given in life is that you are going to encounter stress. An emotionally mature person will not try to push the stress away or to avoid feeling it. At the same time, they won’t plunge into despair anytime they are inevitably faced with it. Instead, they will learn how to manage stress.

“Stress management is a big part of emotional maturity, as it allows one to self-regulate emotions and navigate difficult situations,” Dr. Lawless describes. “Practicing self-care is vital for all of us, and those who are emotionally mature value this and make sure to practice it.”

 18 Effective Stress Relief Strategies

At What Age Do Most People Reach Emotional Maturity?

Emotional maturity is not something we are born with—it develops throughout our childhood and adolescence. According to the APA, emotional maturity begins to develop as early as infancy when babies begin expressing their feelings through smiling, frowning, and crying. It’s further developed in childhood as we learn which behaviors are and aren’t acceptable, and as we begin to learn simple methods of emotional regulation.7

Emotional maturity takes a greater leap during adolescence, but most adolescents are still wrestling with becoming more emotionally mature. Research shows that the brain reaches a level of stable and mature development—particularly in the region of the prefrontal cortex—by the age of 25. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that a person becomes emotionally mature at the age of 25, since other factors, such as genetics, environment, and childhood experiences, shape our ability to become emotionally mature.8

 How to De-Stress With a Smile

What Does It Mean to Be Emotionally Immature?

Being emotionally immature means that you are unable to handle your emotions in a healthy way. You may have trouble forming secure and healthy relationships with others. You may have difficulty recognizing and sharing your feelings, and you are unlikely to handle conflicts and life challenges well. You may not be able to restrain yourself from lashing out at others, or behaving in ways that are inappropriate or harmful. People who are emotionally immature may seem to “overreact” when it comes to normal life stressors, and may be seen as maladapted.9

 What Is Narcissistic Rage?

How Do You Develop Emotional Maturity?

Although emotional maturity is something that usually develops naturally as we move through adolescence and early adulthood, it’s not something that occurs easily for all of us. The development of emotional maturity is dependent on several factors, including:8

  • Genetics
  • Environment
  • Pregnancy and postpartum
  • Nutrition
  • Sleep patterns
  • Medications
  • Childhood healthy and well being
  • Psychological stress
  • Substance abuse
  • Adverse childhood experiences

People with neurodivergent brains, such as those with ADHD and ASD, may also have a more challenging time developing emotional maturity, says Dr. Lawless. “This can impact how they handle certain stimulation, including their emotions,” she explains. “In some cases, that can mean increased insights, empathy, and a sense of justice, while in others, it can mean challenges in processing things like sarcasm, changes, sensory stimulation, and being overstimulated easily.”

Wherever you are in your emotional maturity journey, and whatever roadblocks you may have faced, there’s hope, Dr. Lawless offers. Simply having the intention to change is an important first step. “By facing and overcoming challenges, we can better acknowledge our flaws and strive to improve,” she says.

Becoming more emotionally mature may involve:5

  • Learning to become more mindful of your emotions; learning to name them and manage them
  • Learning different methods for resolving conflicts
  • Learning how to listen to others, and broaden your ability to listen compassionately
  • Learning how to destress and what boundaries are needed for you to live a more balanced life
  • Learning how to develop more securely attached relationships, and ending relationships that aren’t healthy

Importantly, becoming more emotionally mature isn’t something you are meant to do on your own. Therapy is a great way to work on your emotions, understand what is triggering them, and learn methods for handling them with more ease and grace. Therapy can also help you tackle relationships with more emotional maturity.

https://www.verywellmind.com/signs-of-emotional-maturity-755331

Topley’s Top 10 – September 27, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Most Hated Stocks Down Over 10%

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading A Goldman basket of the most-shorted stocks is down more than 10% this month, handing bears with handsome profits.

2. More Small Cap Data….Russell 2000 Average Stock -33% from 52 Week High

3. Small Cap Getting Oversold on RSI 28….Pulled Back to Previous May Lows

4. Cintas Measure for Economy and One of the Best Performing S&P Stocks for the Last 25 Years

Cintas -10% fast, this is chart to watch for economic slowdown.

5. Consumer Staples Acted Well Yesterday But Not a Great Chart Yet

XLP Defensive Staples Sector ETF…50day thru 200day to downside …breaks June lows.

6. If We Had A Top This Will Be a Historical Chart

7. PKW Buyback Stock ETF Failed to Make New Highs….+7% 2023

PKW +7% YTD vs. S&P +14%

©1999-2023 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

PKW Historical Performance-Marketwatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-you-think-stocks-have-gotten-too-expensive-this-etfs-strategy-may-work-for-your-portfolio-a4940d3f?mod=home-page

8. Target closes 9 stores in response to retail theft, adds locked cases at some stores

Brooke DiPalma—Retail theft is now a $112 billion problem, a National Retail Federation report found.  Target (TGT) is taking action in response to retail theft.

On Tuesday the big box retailer announced plans to close nine stores, effective Oct. 21.

“We cannot continue operating these stores because theft and organized retail crime are threatening the safety of our team and guests, and contributing to unsustainable business performance,” the company said in a statement.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-closes-9-stores-in-response-to-retail-theft-adds-locked-cases-at-some-stores-190623263.html

9. Target Chart Ugly….Breaks Through Previous 2022 Lows….$250 High to $109 Last

10. Mental Imagery: Going to the Movies in Your Head

Psychology Today How visualizing the future can help professional athletes and you. Anna-Lisa Cohen Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • Mental imagery can help people like elite athletes to improve their performance in a competitive setting.
  • Mental imagery often involves not just seeing what will happen but also feeling it in the body.
  • Individuals can prepare for stressful events of all kinds by employing mental imagery.

I grew up in Winnipeg, Canada. Hockey was in our DNA. On August 9, 1988, the unthinkable happened. The Edmonton Oilers traded hockey player Wayne Gretzky, known widely as “The Great One,” to the Los Angeles Kings. I remember watching Gretzky attempt to speak at the press conference, slumped over a mass of microphones and dabbing at his eyes repeatedly.

While it was difficult for Edmonton and the rest of Canada, Gretzky being in L.A. breathed new life into the sport. Suddenly, arenas filled up with eager new warm-weather fans.

Most commentators acknowledge that among his many strengths as a player, one of Gretzsky’s greatest assets was his unique mental game. In what has become a staple of inspirational posters and MBA seminars, Gretzky is famously quoted as saying, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is.” It was like he was some kind of hockey fortune teller. He just knew where the puck was going to go.

Not all elite athletes have this type of built-in sixth sense, but there is a wide consensus that we can all benefit from training our minds to visualize the future. Jack Nicklaus, considered one of the greatest golfers of all time, once wrote, “Before every golf shot, I go to the movies in my head.” He explained that these mental simulations of each shot were critical to his success.

Harvard psychologist Stephen Kosslyn is known for his pioneering work in the field of visual cognition, most notably on mental imagery or reproductions of visual images in the absence of the stimuli themselves. A great deal of research has shown that a stronger command of mental imagery improves our ability to perform in competitive situations—including athletics.

The success of mental imagery seems to depend on the ability to conjure vivid images, which come more naturally to some of us than others. Because this is such an important ability, psychologists have methods for evaluating how easily a person can use mental imagery, which they measure on a “visual imagination spectrum.” The categories range from an “image-free imagination” all the way up to “extremely vivid visual imagery.”

In sports, mental visualization is not only visual; it also frequently involves kinesthetic imagery, or the ability to anticipate how it will feel to perform a certain action, like hitting a perfect serve in tennis or making the perfect free throw in basketball. 

There can be a dark side for those with an especially vivid imagination. In 2020, my colleagues and I conducted a study that showed that when we vividly imagine ourselves carrying out a future event, hours later, we may falsely believe that we actually carried it out when, in fact, we only imagineddoing it. This is a failure of reality monitoring, and it happens all the time.

For example, while at work, you might think to yourself, I really need to take my medication when I get home this evening. When you form this thought, you picture yourself opening the medicine cabinet, pouring some water into a porcelain cup, and swallowing the pill. Then, later in the evening, you think about taking your medication, and the image from earlier in the day (medicine cabinet, water, porcelain cup, pill) comes to mind, and you mistakenly conclude that you already took your medication. An earlier intention to take your medication has suddenly been mistakenly classified as a real action.

Notwithstanding the errors that sometimes occur with mentally visualizing future events, the benefits of mental simulation extend way beyond sports. We can use it in any domain. For example, when you simulate yourself performing well in a pitch for your genius new start-up idea, it activates and strengthens the regions of the brain responsible for its real-life execution.

Whether you are visualizing yourself playing sports or imagining the speech you will make at your best friend’s wedding, you are priming your brain on how to respond in the real moment. The neural pathways are getting practice for the real event.

Although much of the popular advice advises us to “be present,” our ability to disengage from the present and imagine the future is one of our most extraordinary gifts as humans and underlies some of our greatest achievements.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/remembering-the-past-and-imagining-the-future/202309/mental-imagery-going-to-the-movies-in

Topley’s Top 10 – September 26, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Small Cap Underperformance

Micro-Cap ETF Breaking to New Lows.

Russell 2000 Small Cap Turned Back Down.

2. Small Cap Volatility …Small Cap Vol Index at Lows?

Not sure of reason for low volatility in small caps…No one cares?

3-4. Earlier this Year Pundits were Predicting Dollar Crash….Yuan, Yen, and Euro Straight Down vs. U.S. Dollar

Chinese Yuan to Dollar Straight Down

Japanese Yen to Dollar about to make new lows

Euro to Dollar straight down

5. History of October Stock Returns

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright The histogram below is another visual that helps us wrap our hands around October’s past behavior. It categorizes each October’s return into a performance bracket, allowing us not only to see that there have been more up Octobers than down Octobers, but also the degree to which they have been up or down. If we look at the extremes, notice that only five Octobers since 1950 (including 2018) have experienced a decline worse than -5%. The most common experience in October has been a gain in the range of 2.5% – 5%.

https://oxlive.dorseywright.com/research/bigwire

6. TLT 20-Year Treasury $89 Tick will Break to New Lows

7. Europe Stagflation?

Torsten Slok Apollo Consensus expectations show that the market is expecting Europe to be in stagflation in 2023 and in 2024, see charts below.

The classic textbook response to stagflation by the central bank is to keep interest rates high until inflation is under control, and then wait for growth to eventually restart.

This is also what we should be expecting from the ECB. The implication for markets is high short rates and low growth in earnings.

8. These are the most overvalued housing markets in the world, according to UBS-Miami and L.A. Only Two U.S. Cities on “Overvalued” List

Marketwatch By Aarthi Swaminathan

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-are-the-most-overvalued-housing-markets-in-the-world-according-to-ubs-a27486eb?cx_testId=22&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=1&mod=home-page-cx#cxrecs_s

9. Last 20 Years…Philly Highest of Major Cities for Growth Rate of Citizens with Bachelor’s Degree

Philly Inquirer by Lizzy McLellan Ravitch

https://www.inquirer.com/business/undergraduate-degrees-millennials-gen-z-20230921.html#:~:text=Increase%20in%20Area%20Bachelor’s%20Degree,that%20of%20the%20surrounding%20area

10. U.S. Sends Drone Ships to Western Pacific in First Deployment Near China

WSJ Autonomous vessels could aid Navy in tracking China’s fleet and provide attack options

By Alastair Gale YOKOSUKA, Japan—Two prototype U.S. drone ships have arrived in Japan for their first deployment in the western Pacific, testing surveillance and attack capabilities that the Navy might find useful against China’s larger fleet.

U.S. Navy Cmdr. Jeremiah Daley said unmanned surface vessels that operate autonomously could substitute for larger ships such as destroyers in groups hunting enemy targets. “For example, one destroyer and two USVs could replace three destroyers. It’s a force multiplier,” he said. 

Daley spoke Thursday on board the unmanned surface vessel Ranger, a 190-foot-long ship originally designed for the oil industry that resembles a flatbed truck. It sat docked at the port of Yokosuka, near Tokyo, home to the U.S. Seventh Fleet. 

While the Ranger doesn’t currently carry missiles, it can carry and launch missiles in modules loaded onto its flatbed rear section.

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/u-s-sends-drone-ships-to-western-pacific-in-first-deployment-near-china-6d772297