Topley’s Top 10 – December 13, 2022

1. VIX Volatility Index Technical Signal

Jessica MentonThe VIX, dubbed Wall Street’s fear gauge, measures market expectations of 30-day volatility and can serve as an important indicator of how investors are feeling. The so-called death cross pattern appears when the VIX’s short-term 50-day moving average slides below its 200-day moving average.

For individual stocks or indexes, a death cross is often considered bearish. But when it happens to the VIX it can be a hopeful sign for equities, according to Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, and Christopher Mistal, research director at the publication.

“Since the VIX is designed to measure near-term market volatility the lower it goes the better the S&P 500 usually performs,” Hirsch and Mistal wrote in a research note to clients. “Thus, a VIX death cross can be a bullish indication.”

Since 1990, there have been 35 death crosses for the VIX prior to the current one, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. On average, the S&P 500 has climbed 0.5% and 0.6% respectively one and two weeks following the formation.

With all that being said, equity traders are only confident in one thing over the next week: more turbulence.

Volatility has eased significantly, with the VIX falling below 20 at the beginning of this month after spiking as high as 34.53 intraday on Oct. 12. On Monday, however, it rose above 24 as investors brace for an important measure of consumer inflation on Tuesday, followed by the Fed’s rate decision a day later. Those key events will likely shape what’s ahead for a beaten-down stock market in 2023.

“This would suggest that the current VIX death cross is likely bullish in the near-term, but not a great indication much beyond two weeks,” Hirsch and Mistal wrote.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vix-fell-death-cross-usually-205633380.html


2. Earnings Growth Lagged the Bottom of S&P by 6 Months.

Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture Blog Since 1950, we’ve found the trough in earnings growth lagged the bottom in the S&P 500 by about 6 months — earnings failed to lead the market 75% of the time

Source: TKer

https://ritholtz.com/2022/12/1o-monday-am-reads/


3. ETFS Now Surpassing Fixed Income Mutual Funds

Dave Lutz Jones Trading SWAPPING OUT– Worn down from record losses, investors have fled bond mutual funds en masse. But many aren’t quitting on bonds—they are just turning to exchange-traded funds – One main reason: taxes. Some investors sell beaten-down positions in bond funds to harvest tax losses. In many cases this year, investors have opted to put cash into similar ETFs to maintain bond exposure in their portfolios.

As long as the securities within the ETF aren’t nearly identical to those in the mutual fund, swapping the so-called wrapper around the holdings allows investors to stay invested, while capitalizing on tax benefits – “More sophisticated investors are employing tax strategies, as well as trading up in credit quality,” said WSJ


4. Muni Yields the Highest in 10 Years

Advisor Perspectives Muni yields are near the highest level in over a decade

Muni Outlook: Back in Vogueby Cooper Howard of Charles Schwab, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/12/11/muni-outlook-back-in-vogue


5. Technology Capital Expenditures vs. Energy

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/insights/investing/tmt/the-year-ahead-five-dynamics-that-matter?pid=&programName=20221209-NAM-NL-INV-Top%20Market%20Takeaways&utm_source=email-pb&utm_medium=Other-NA&utm_campaign=%20UPDATE%20WITH%20DATE%20OF%20SEND%20(Format:%20YYYYMMDD)TMT&utm_content=CTA&mkt_tok=MzkyLUhLQy04NzYAAAGIlwCyKXlKqEVk8Ms2aEPoKAHhD61RcxOEwc6d4988mCcwX0SXcW7L23iFM9_6li3T8-HWAZ6koe9eVwEA0ZkYk6uszY1ZU_kE-Zt5cVk3fUMW4A


6. NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations Plunge At Fastest Pace On Record To Lowest Since 2021

BY TYLER DURDEN Zero Hegde With long-term inflation expectations (those 3-Years ahead or more) peaking more than a year ago, and even shorter inflation expectations – at least according to the NY Fed Survey of consumers – now sliding after hitting a record high 6.8% in June and dropping alongside 2Y breakevens which recently hit the lowest level in 2 years…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ny-fed-1-year-inflation-expectations-plunge-fastest-pace-record-slid-2021-levels


7. Gas Cheaper than One-Year Ago

The United States: A gallon of unleaded gasoline is now cheaper than it was 12 months ago.

Source: Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/


8. 1.7M Job Openings Per Unemployed Persons

Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/12/07/animal-spirits-a-bear-market-in-housing/


9. Eating 400 calories a day from these foods could raise your dementia risk by over 20%

By Nicole Lyn Pesce

More than half of the calories consumed by Americans come from this high-risk food group, which is associated with cognitive decline, cancer and heart disease

A growing body of research suggests that ultraprocessed foods like frozen pizzas and breakfast cereals high in sugars, fats and empty calories are bad for your health. Now, a new large-scale study presented at the 2022 Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in San Diego this week offers more evidence that people who get a high percentage of their daily calories from ultraprocessed foods are also at a higher risk of cognitive decline.

A team of researchers from the University of São Paulo Medical School in Brazil followed a diverse sample of more than 10,000 Brazilians for up to 10 years. The subjects filled out food frequency questionnaires to note how often they were eating foods including: unprocessed or minimally processed ingredients (e.g., whole foods like fresh, dry or frozen fruits, vegetables, whole grains, meat, fish and milk that underwent minimal processing, like pasteurization); processed foods (canned fruits, artisanal bread and cheese, and salted, smoked or cured meat or fish); and ultraprocessed foods (industrial formulations of processed food substances like oils, fats, sugars, starch, artificial flavors and colorings, but containing little or no whole foods).

The subjects also took cognitive tests up to three times a year, including memory tests and word-recognition tests, to monitor their cognitive functioning — mental abilities such as learning, thinking, reasoning, remembering, problem solving, decision making and attention. They also took regular verbal fluency tests to track their executive functioning — the mental skills that help an individual plan, monitor and successfully meet their goals.

The findings? Those who got 20% or more of their daily calories from ultraprocessed foods had a 28% faster rate of cognitive decline, and a 25% faster rate of executive-function decline, compared with the subjects in the study who ate the least processed foods. In other words, someone following a 2,000-calorie-a-day diet who consumed 400 of their daily calories from ready-to-eat frozen meals, processed meats, breakfast cereals and sugar-sweetened beverages each day saw a faster rate of cognitive decline.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eating-400-calories-a-day-from-these-foods-could-raise-your-dementia-risk-by-over-20-11670350860?mod=home-page


10. Neuroscientist: ‘Bookend’ Your Days With Reading for a More Peaceful and Productive Life

Sometimes the most impactful daily routines are also easy and pleasant.

BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM@ENTRYLEVELREBEL

Just about everyone agrees that how you start and end your days has an outsize impact on your mindset and productivity. Which is why the internet is jammed packed with complex morning routine prescriptions and tales of A-listers’ superhuman start-of-day rituals.

Far be it from me to criticize Tony Robbins’s morning ice baths or Tim Cook’s 3:45 a.m. wake-up time if these extreme routines work for them, but wouldn’t it be nice if there was an impactful routine out there that was also both easy and pleasant?

According to one Harvard-trained neuroscientist, there is, and it’s already in serious contention to be my New Year’s resolution this year. If you’re looking for more peaceful and productive days without any additional dawn hours discomfort, maybe you should consider adopting it too.

The most pleasant daily routine I’ve read about in a while

What’s this miracle tweak? Nothing more complicated than starting and ending your days reading a well-chosen book. On Ezra Klein’s podcast recently, Maryanne Wolf, a UCLA professor who specializes in how our brains learn to process written language, shared her simple morning and evening routine for a clear mind all day long (hat tip to Austin Kleon).

“I begin my day with meditation. And then reading at least 20 minutes a philosophical or theological or spiritual or sometimes political — something that will absolutely take me out of myself and center me, completely center my thinking. Slow it down. It prepares me for, if you will, clearing the deck of whatever detritus from the night or even the day before. And readying myself with a particular mindset for whatever the day brings,” she shares.

She begins the day with a book but she closes the day with one too, usually a classic essay by Montaigne or Marcus Aurelius. “They give me a kind of peace that I find in very few places,” she explains. “So I end and I begin each day with books.”

Why you should bookend your days with books

Counteracting the franticness of most of everyday life with the slower, deeper pleasures of reading something excellent has intuitive appeal. But there are plenty of more scientific reasons to think Wolfe might be on to something.

First among them is Wolfe’s own expertise. As a leading researcher into how reading affects our brains, she has written before about the way deep, focused reading trains us to be able to focus longer, wrestle with complexity, empathize with others, and appreciate subtle beauty. All of which are skills that can feel in danger of atrophying amid the hustle and bustle of daily life and our very online world.

But other experts have also noted how reading can reshape your days. Bill Gates, for one, claims to always read before bed. A variety of studies suggest this habit helps reduce stress and improve sleep.

Other recent research showed that people who take just a few minutes to reflect on their goals at the start of the day experience “a cascade of positive experiences during the day.” By choosing to read something that focuses her mind on larger questions of spirituality and meaning, that’s just what Wolfe’s morning reading does.

You might not have much appetite for Montaigne (though I personally found this book on his writings surprisingly compelling and readable, so don’t let the fact that he was a 16th-century philosopher scare you off). But just about everyone can find some sort of book to pick up in the morning and the evening that helps remind them of what they think life is truly about.

Not only will devoting 15 or 20 minutes to reading those books at the start and end of each day feed your mind and give you joy, but all the evidence suggests bookending your days with reading in this way will help you feel calmer, more rooted, and more genuinely productive all day long.

https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/neuroscientist-bookend-your-days-with-reading-for-a-more-peaceful-productive-life.html?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=IncThisMorning-Dec%2011,%202022&leadId=1548979&mkt_tok=NjEwLUxFRS04NzIAAAGIpVN64S2QomAH4IokOw7BrMUQioVqy__h2B5L0Wt2v3ZaLkVT5rm6NYwbv8tLds7mX-xeVhcoMnBOPtEK4NSZwSxI6V8XO6oErIplUeGU

Topley’s Top 10 – December 12, 2022

1. Equity Put/Call Ratio Highest in 20 Years?

A Contrarian Indicator -Investopedia

Contrarian investors use the put-call ratio to help them determine when market participants are getting overly bullish or too bearish.

An extremely high put-call ratio means the market is extremely bearish. To a contrarian, that can be a bullish signal that indicates the market is unduly bearish and is due for a turnaround. A high ratio can be a sign of a buying opportunity to a contrarian.

An extremely low ratio means the market is extremely bullish. A contrarian might conclude that the market is too bullish and is due for a pullback.

No single ratio can definitively indicate that the market is at its top or its bottom. Even the levels of the put-call ratio that are considered extreme are not set in stone and vary over the years.

Typically, investors compare current ratio levels to the average over some period of time to gauge if sentiment has changed recently. If the put-call ratio has fluctuated in a tight range and suddenly bumps higher, traders might see this as a sudden increase in bearish sentiment and make their moves accordingly.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/putcallratio.asp


2. Dow Industrials Chart Breaks Above August Highs

Industrials 50day approaching 200day to upside

 www.stockcharts.com 


3. History of Santa Rally in Down Years

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


4. Reversion to Mean…Dividends Historic Average vs. 2010-2020

Capital Group-While dividends accounted for a slim 16% of total return for the S&P 500 in the 2010s, historically they have contributed an average 38%. In the inflationary 1970s they climbed to more than 70%. “When you expect growth in the single digits, dividends can give you a head start,” Wagner adds. “They may also offer a measure of downside protection when volatility rises, but it is essential to understand the sustainability of those dividends.”

Dividends have historically been a larger percentage of total return

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. 2020s data is from 1/1/26 through 11/30/22. *Total return for the S&P 500 Index was negative for the 2000s. Dividends provided a 1.8% annualized return over the decade. Past results are not predictive of results in future periods

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/2023-us-market-outlook.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80895830&et_cid=80895830&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=A-btn-LP-2-CISynCTA


5. COMT Commodity ETF Breaking Below Early Fall Lows.

50day thru 200day to downside in October


6. Copper Miners Held 200 Week Moving Average in this Commodity Pullback

COPX still 10 points below highs but held 200 week average twice  

 www.stockcharts.com


7. Chinese Property Index Rallying

China: Property stocks are surging.

https://dailyshotbrief.com


8. FAANG Stocks Lost $3 Trillion in Market Value…..Weight in S&P 19.5% to 13%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/investors-call-time-on-faang-stock-dominance-after-nasdaq-s-rout?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


9. Surging retail theft could force Walmart to close stores and raise prices, CEO Doug McMillon warns

By

Thomas Barrabi

Shoplifting has gotten so bad at Walmart stores that the retail giant may shutter locations in areas where local governments are taking a soft-on-crime approach, the company’s boss said.

CEO Doug McMillon, who has led Walmart since 2015, confirmed the retailer has experienced an increase in “shrink” — a term the retail industry uses to address losses related to in-store theft or fraud.

“Theft is an issue. It’s higher than what it has historically been,” McMillon said during an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. “We’ve got safety measures, security measures that we’ve put in place by store location.

“I think local law enforcement being staffed and being a good partner is part of that equation, and that’s normally how we approach it,” McMillon added. “If that’s not corrected over time, prices will be higher, and/or stores will close.”

The Walmart CEO did not elaborate on how many stores could be in danger of closure, or where the closures might occur. The Post has reached out to the company for further comment.

Walmart has 4,720 stores in the US and 10,586 locations around the world.

has more than 10,500 stores around the world.Corbis via Getty Images

McMillon added that Walmart takes a “city by city” and “location by location” approach to how it handles shoplifting

Rite Aid bosses blame out-of-control NYC shoplifting for $5M revenue hit

 

“It’s store managers working with local law enforcement and we’ve got great relationships there for the most part,” he said.

Walmart’s top boss is the latest executive to warn of significant impact from what is often described as “organized retail crime.”

Last month, Target CFO Michael Fiddelke said shrinkage had already shaved $400 million from the company’s profits – with the final impact expected to rise to more than $600 million for the full year.

Target CEO Brian Cornell added that his company had “seen a significant increase in theft and organized retail crime across our business.”

As The Post reported in September, Rite Aid executives grumbled that shoplifting in New York City had contributed to “unexpected headwinds” and resulted in a $5 million year-over-year increase in shrink-related losses.

“I think the headline here is the environment that we operate in, particularly in New York City, is not conducive to reducing shrink just based upon everything you read and see on social media and the news in the city,” Rite Aid’s chief retail officer Andre Persaud during an earnings call at the time.

https://nypost.com/2022/12/07/retail-theft-could-lead-walmart-to-close-stores-raise-prices/


10. 10 Reasons Why I Am Addicted To My Sauna by Ben Greenfield

Hippocrates Health Institute Publication On Clearlight Infrared® Sauna

10 Reasons Why I Am Addicted To My Sauna by Ben Greenfield

I have a confession to make: I’m an addict. Every morning I wander to my basement gym, flip the power on my sauna, step inside, and sweat hard for thirty minutes. Knowing I can venture downstairs and enter a chamber that gives my body a myriad of benefits simply makes a sauna a daily must. There are many reasons I sauna and you should too – 10 scientifically proven reasons, in fact. In no particular order of importance, they are:

1. Heart Health and Longevity

JAMA Internal Medicine shows that regularly spending time in a sauna may help keep the heart healthy and extend life. Researchers from Finland tracked 2,300 men for an average of 20 years. They found that the more sessions per week men spent in the sauna, the lower their risk of sudden cardiac death and fatal coronary heart disease. The sauna also extended the life of participants with other illnesses, including cancer.

2. Detoxification of Chemicals and Heavy Metals

The skin is a major detox organ, and sweating through skin is a critical human detox function, yet most people don’t sweat enough. Because of this, we miss out on a major source of toxin elimination: the skin. To combat these effects, an infrared sauna helps to purify the body from the inside out, eliminating compounds such as PCBs, metals and toxins that are stored in fat cells, which can undergo lipolysis and release toxins upon exposure to heat.

3. Athletic Recovery for Pros and Weekend Warriors

Growth hormone is crucial for repair and recovery of muscles, and research has shown that two 20-minute sauna sessions elevated growth hormone levels two-fold over baseline. Two 15-minute sauna sessions at an even warmer temperature resulted in a five-fold increase in growth hormone. And two one-hour sauna sessions for 7 days has been shown to increase growth hormone 16-fold! For an additional recovery benefit, sauna also increases blood flow to the skeletal muscles, which helps to keep them fueled with glucose, amino acids, fatty acids, and oxygen, while removing by-products of metabolic processes such as lactic acid and calcium ions.

4. Arthritic and Muscular Pain Relief

In The Annals of Clinical Research Volume 20, research results show the benefits of sauna for relief of pain and increased mobility. Pain relief induced by a sauna was attributed to an increase in the release of anti-inflammatory compounds, as well as an increase in positive stress on the body, causing it to release natural pain-killing endorphins. More than 50% of participants reported relief of pain and an increase in mobility.

5. Muscle Gain and Fat Loss

Sauna can promote muscle growth and fat loss by improving insulin sensitivity and decreasing muscle protein catabolism. Intermittent hyperthermia has been shown to reduce insulin resistance in obese mice, and in this case insulin resistant diabetic mice were subjected to 30 minutes of heat treatment, three times a week for twelve weeks. The results were a 31% decrease in insulin levels and a reduction in blood glucose levels, both of which can contribute to an increase in muscle growth and an increase in weight control and fat loss. It has also been shown that a 30-minute intermittent hyperthermic treatment can cause a significant expression of something called ‘heat shock proteins’ in muscle, which is correlated with 30% more muscle regrowth after a week of immobilization. In other words, if you don’t exercise but you sauna instead, you can still maintain muscle!

6. Immune System Boost

The Journal of Human Kinetics investigated the effect of sauna on the immune system, specifically white blood cell profile, cortisol levels and selected physiological indices in athletes and non-athletes. After the sauna session, an increased number of white blood cells, lymphocyte, neutrophil and basophil counts was reported in the white blood cell profile, showing that sauna use stimulates the immune system. German medical research shows that saunas are able to significantly reduce the incidences of colds and influenza.

7. Skin Rejuvenation

When your body produces sweat via the deep sweating you experience in an infrared sauna, the rate at which dead skin cells are replaced can be increased. At the same time, heavy sweating helps to remove bacteria out of the epidermal layer of the skin and the sweat ducts. This pore cleansing also causes increased capillary circulation, which can give the skin a softer-looking, younger appearance. When you sweat, the movement of fluid to the skin delivers mineral-rich nutrients and also helps to fill spaces around the cells, increasing firmness and reducing the appearance of wrinkles. So by continually flushing waste through skin cells via the use of hyperthermia, you increase skin health, tone and color, and cleanse the pores.

8. Relaxation and Better Sleep

Researchers have found that a sauna can help provide a deeper, more relaxed sleep, relief of chronic tension, and relief of chronic fatigue issues, most likely due to a release of endorphins from the sauna. As endorphins are released into your body, they create a soothing, tranquilizing effect that not only helps to minimize chronic arthritic pain and other muscle soreness, but can also help with relaxation and sleep.

9. Increased Cardiovascular Performance

Research has shown 30 minutes of sauna treatment after exercise can cause an increase in oxygen consumption and red blood cell production. In temperatures of an infrared sauna, your skin heats up and core body temperature rises. Then, in response to these increased heat levels, the blood vessels near your skin dilate and cause an increase in cardiac output. So with regular sauna use, you are training your heart muscles and improving your cardiac output.

10. Increased Stress Resilience

Multiple research studies have shown that hyperthermia via the use of a sauna can prevent protein degradation and muscle loss by triggering the production of heat shock proteins. Heat shock proteins are then used by your cells to counteract potentially harmful stimulus, including environmental stress from pollutants, toxins, heat, cold, exercise stress and more. So, can you blame me? I’m addicted to my sauna and knowing these 10 benefits, I feel very good about myself when I walk out of my daily sauna session. If you’re up for the challenge, I’d recommend that for the next thirty days you try the Finnish practice of visiting a sauna four to five times a week for twenty to thirty minutes.

If you’re interested in an infrared sauna cabin for home, click here to view our range of full-spectrum saunas, far-infrared saunas, and outdoor saunas.

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https://infrared-sauna.com.au/blog/health-institute-saunas

 

 

Topley’s Top 10 – December 09, 2022

1. 10 Year Yield -20% from Highs

10 Year Yield Closes Below 50day Moving Average

www.stockcharts.com


2. 10 Year Yield Higher Highs and Higher Lows Still Intact

Wolf Street Blog The 10-year yield closed at 0.52% on August 4, 2020, which marked the end of the 39-year bond bull market. Since then, the 10-year yield has risen sharply, with big surges followed by smaller retracements, followed by big surges, followed by smaller retracements, etc., adhering to the Wolf Street dictum that “Nothing  Goes to Heck in a Straight Line.” The 10-year yield, as it went up, marked higher highs and higher lows each time. And the current bear-market rally fits in nicely, and the yield could drop further, and it would still fit in nicely:

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/12/04/drop-in-10-year-treasury-yield-mortgage-rates-is-just-another-bear-market-rally-longer-uptrend-in-yields-is-intact-with-higher-higher-highs-and-higher-lows/


3. More Evidence of Inflation Falling…..Citi Inflation Surprise Index

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab


4. US Total Crude Inventories at 36 Year Low

@JavierBlas  US **total** crude oil inventories (both commercial and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have fallen to a 36-year low, dropping below the previous bottom set in 2001 |

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas


5. Exxon Best Performance in History…$50B Buyback

(Bloomberg) — Exxon Mobil Corp. raised its annual share buyback by about 10%, six weeks after the oil giant posted its highest profit in its 152-year history.

Exxon will now repurchase $50 billion of stock through 2024, expanding its previous plan of $30 billion through 2023, the Irving, Texas-based company said in a statement. The buyback will now include $15 billion of share repurchases this year, which would be the highest annual total since 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“The runway on the buyback is likely to be well received, we think, as it provides visibility, relative to some peers that guide on a quarterly basis,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria wrote in a note.

The shares jumped 2.1% to $105.83 at 9:44 a.m. in New York. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 2% to above $73 a barrel. Exxon stock is up about 73% this year, which would be its best annual performance of the modern era if it holds through Dec. 31.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-lifts-share-buyback-50-145025690.html


6. The U.S. chip boom is just beginning

Matt Phillips, author of Axios Markets

Chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s decision to triple its investment in Arizona is part of a national rush to re-shore key inputs for the American economy.

Driving the news: President Biden traveled to TSMC’s Arizona plant on Tuesday to bask in the glow of the announcement. The company — which by some measures manufactures over half the world’s chips — said the three-fold increase would bring its investment to around $40 billion.

  • TSMC says the plants will create more than 10,000 high-paying tech jobs, including 4,500 directly at the plants themselves.
  • American manufacturing is back, folks,” President Biden said, speaking at the TSMC facility.

The big picture: The last few years of economic disarray — broken global supply chains, high inflation, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and growing trade and technology tensions with China — upended the system of globalization that emerged after the Cold War.

  • That global network required that people, commodities, capital and goods could — and would — always flow easily across borders.
  • But the onset of COVID generated a series of global government scrambles for essentials — first masks and vaccines, then semiconductors, and now oil and gas — that at times blurred the line between economic security and national security.

State of play: The disorder also highlighted the importance of developing domestic production of cutting-edge semiconductors, now sourced from a Taiwan that finds itself increasingly imperiled by an aggressive China.

  • The $280 billion Chips and Science Act of 2022 — signed into law in August — includes $52 billion in subsidies to coax companies into building production plants in the U.S.
  • Corporations have been receptive, in part because Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s response to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit this year “have really hammered home the fact that there is no guarantee of peace in the Taiwan Straits going forward,” says Chris Miller, a Tufts University history professor and author of the new book “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology.”

Context: TSMC’s announcement is just the latest in a string of high-profile investment plans from computer chip companies.

  • In early 2022, Intel announced it would spend $20 billion on a new chip production facility near Columbus, Ohio, and has plans to spend a similar amount building out plants in Chandler, Arizona.
  • Samsung Electronics has floated the possibility that it could follow a previously announced $17 billion investment in chip production in Austin, Texas, with up to $200 billion on 11 plants in the area, according to Bloomberg.

What they’re saying: The U.S. and European focus on boosting chip manufacturing, along with China’s simultaneous desire to lead global tech “all point to increased semiconductor capital expenditure in the coming decade,” analysts with S&P Global wrote in a recent research report.

The bottom line: In the aggregate, the reshuffling of the global chip market along national lines could be inefficient and costly as countries around the world rush to build, or rebuild, their own local supply of chips.

  • But in the U.S., it will make for good politics, offering shovel-ready photo ops for politicians at plants that promise good-paying jobs that, by definition, won’t be outsourced to China.

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/07/us-chip-boom-just-beginning-biden-tsmc


7. Weakening Dollar is Not Good for All International Companies

Capital Group Many European companies earn a substantial portion of their total revenue in dollars. In the health care sector, for example, French drugmaker Sanofi reported that currency effects boosted its sales by nearly 1 billion euros in the first half of 2022.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/2023-international-outlook.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80891680&et_cid=80891680&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=A-btn-LP-2-CISynCTA


8. 967K Immigrants Naturalized at U.S. Citizens….3rd Highest Ever

Eric Finnegan-John Burns Real Estate –Good news for housing demand, labor supply, population growth… and of course, all those new US citizens.  In fiscal year 2022, 967K immigrants were naturalized as US citizens.  That’s the 3rd highest level – ever.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericfinniganl/


9. Who Is Viktor Bout, Arms Dealer in Swap for Brittney Griner?

Story by Valerie Hopkins and Alan Yuhas • 1h ago

Shortly after his conviction in 2011 on charges including conspiring to kill American citizens, the Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout relayed a defiant message through his lawyer as he faced the prospect of decades in prison.

Viktor Bout, a notorious Russian arms dealer, arriving at court in Bangkok in 2010. He was extradited and convicted of conspiring to kill Americans.© Nicolas Asfouri/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Mr. Bout, his lawyer said, “believes this is not the end.”

More than a decade later, Mr. Bout, 55, has been freed, despite serving less than half of his 25-year prison sentence. He was exchanged on Thursday for the American basketball star Brittney Griner, who had been imprisoned in Russia for 10 months.Russian officials had pressed for Mr. Bout’s return since his conviction by a New York jury on four counts that included conspiring to kill American citizens. Prosecutors said he had agreed to sell antiaircraft weapons to drug enforcement informants who were posing as arms buyers for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.

A mural in Washington depicting American hostages held abroad, including Paul Whelan, left, in July.© Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

The attorney general at the time, Eric Holder, called Mr. Bout (pronounced “Boot”) “one of the world’s most prolific arms dealers.” Mr. Bout become notorious among American intelligence officials, earning the nickname “Merchant of Death” as he evaded capture for years. His exploits helped inspire a 2005 film, “Lord of War,” that starred Nicolas Cage as a character fashioned after Mr. Bout.

He was probably the highest-profile Russian in U.S. custody and the prisoner Russia had campaigned the most vociferously to have returned. His return to Russia is likely to reignite the debate over the wisdom of engaging in prisoner exchanges for Americans the United States considers “wrongfully detained” — as was the case with Ms. Griner and is with another American still imprisoned in Russia, Paul Whelan, a former Marine.

In interviews with journalists, Mr. Bout has repeatedly denied accusations that he has worked for Russian intelligence agencies. But Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russia’s security services, said there were strong signs — Mr. Bout’s education, his social and professional networks, and his logistical skills — that he is a member, or at least was in close collaboration with, Russia’s military intelligence agency, known as the G.R.U.

“That is also the opinion of U.S. and other authorities — and it explains the reasons Russia has been so assiduously campaigning to get him back,” Mr. Galeotti, a lecturer on Russia and transnational crime at University College London, said in an interview in July. “All countries try to get their citizens out of rough jurisdictions, but it is clear that it has been a particular priority for the Russians in getting Viktor Bout back.”

Mr. Bout grew up in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, until his conscription into the Soviet military at age 18. After a term in the Army, he studied Portuguese at the Military Institute of Foreign Languages in Moscow, a common entree to Russian intelligence services, and eventually became an officer in the Air Force

The Soviet Union broke apart not long after Mr. Bout left the military. As Russia’s economy collapsed and criminal groups thrived, he moved to the United Arab Emirates and started a cargo company that grew to a fleet of 60 planes.

With military supplies of former Soviet states leaking onto the black market, his shipping empire delivered guns to rebels, militants and terrorists around the world, prosecutors said. In the new era of privatization in Russia, arms traffickers were able to use old Soviet-era social, military and business networks, and to also develop shell companies to hide transactions.

Mr. Bout was accused of selling weapons to Al Qaeda, the Taliban and militants in Rwanda. According to several investigations and his U.S. indictment, he and his associates flouted arms embargoes in Sierra Leone, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Algeria, where he sold weapons to both the government forces and the rebels fighting them.

His ability to avoid being captured added to his notoriety among Western intelligence officials. In 1995, the Taliban forced down one of his planes in Afghanistan and seized the cargo and imprisoned the crew. Mr. Bout and Russian officials somehow managed to get the crew out of the country: In 2003, he told The New York Times Magazine “they were extracted,” and in 2012, The New Yorker reported, he said they simply escaped.

U.S. authorities finally caught up with him in Bangkok in 2008. Mr. Bout met with undercover Drug Enforcement Administration agents he believed represented rebels from Colombia’s Revolutionary Armed Forces, or FARC, which the United States considered a terrorist organization until last year.

When the prospective buyers told him the weapons could be used to kill American pilots, Mr. Bout responded, “We have the same enemy,” prosecutors said.

Thai authorities arrested him on the spot. He was extradited to the United States in 2010 and two years later was sentenced to 25 years.

In the years since, Russian authorities have maintained Mr. Bout’s innocence and brought him up as a possible swap for other high-profile American and Ukrainian detainees held by Russia. He has been at the center of a Russian campaign, “we don’t abandon our own,” that has cast his arrest as unfair and politically motivated.

Mr. Bout’s exchange has been a priority for Russia “a matter of honor and a matter of ruthless pragmatism,” said Mr. Galeotti, the Russia expert.

Russian intelligence agencies “have inherited from the former Soviet K.G.B. a culture that makes it clear to its own agents — ‘we will get you back.’ That kind of loyalty to your own is really important when you are expecting people to put themselves potentially in harm’s way.”

It was unclear whether Mr. Bout’s return would further encourage Russia to arrest Westerners who can be traded; Moscow denies allegations that it intentionally arrests people to force an exchange.

Andrei Soldatov, a Russian journalist and expert on the security services who is a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said that while Mr. Bout had been the highest profile Russian prisoner in America, there were many more Russians in U.S. prisons, particularly for hacking.

The Russian authorities, Mr. Soldatov said, learned how to “create banks of hostages” in the early 2000s during a brutal war with the breakaway region of Chechnya, right after President Vladimir V Putin came to power.

“It was a lesson they never quite forgot,” said Mr. Soldatov. Referring to Russian security agencies, he said, “It makes total sense, from their point of view to do the same with the U.S.”

Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.

Who Is Viktor Bout, Arms Dealer in Swap for Brittney Griner? (msn.com)


10. How to (Actually) Change Someone’s Mind

by Laura Huang and Ryan Yu

Summary.   Much of leadership boils down to turning adversaries into allies. In this piece, the authors discuss three persuasion strategies leaders can employ when faced with a disagreement in the workplace: the Cognitive Conversation, which is best for convincing colleagues…more

If you’re a leader, it’s likely that not everyone who works with you will agree with the decisions you make — and that’s okay. Leadership involves making unpopular decisions while navigating complex relationships with colleagues, partners, and clients. But often, you will need to get buy-in from these constituents, and therefore you will need to convince them to change their mind.

There is little friction involved in convincing people who are your natural supporters. But trying to change the mind of a dissenter, or a detractor, is a different story. How do you go about convincing someone who, for one reason or another, doesn’t see eye-to-eye with you? Someone who gives you a flat out “no”?

In the recent research we completed for Laura’s book, Edge: Turning Adversity into Advantage, we observed, and then interviewed, more than 60 leaders who were trying to convince business associates and other constituents to change their minds on a course of action that they initially disagreed with. The leaders who were most successful in overcoming others’ skepticism were those who diagnosed the root of the fundamental disagreement before trying to persuade. They first asked themselves, “What’s driving my detractor’s resistance?” These leaders often pinpointed which aspects of their arguments elicited the most pushback and the most emotional reactions. Then, depending on the answer, they approached the situation with one of the following three targeted strategies.

The Cognitive Conversation

When to use it: The detractor may be opposed to your argument because of an objective reason. If they’ve clearly articulated a logical set of objections, and they don’t appear to be hiding ulterior motives, approach them with a cognitive conversation. This is especially useful when the detractor is known to have a no-nonsense attitude and can easily set aside emotions in their decision-making process.

How it works: A successful cognitive conversation requires two things: sound arguments and good presentation. Take, for example, a situation where you are pushing to switch suppliers and you’ve found one whose materials and products are superior to the current supplier, whose products have been causing numerous downstream issues. But your colleague is in favor of sticking with your current supplier with whom he has a long-standing relationship. He expresses his resistance to your proposal by pointing out the higher prices the new supplier charges. You want to prepare sound arguments that disprove the detractor’s objections. In this instance, you might point out that the new supplier is actually less expensive in the long run, when you take into account all the additional production costs cause by the current supplier. You also want to use a logical framework and clear storyline to force the detractor to reassess their thinking. For example, you can emphasize that the decision is based on cost, quality, and service, but above all, cost and quality.

Be cautious about not introducing emotions into the discussion, which could give the impression that you and your detractor are not on common ground. For example, you don’t want to make it seem as if you believe your colleague’s relationship with the former supplier is irrelevant. The goal is to show the person that, on an objective and factual basis, their initial stance on the situation isn’t as reasonable as your argument. Be warned, these detractors are not easily swayed by broad generalizations. Be ready to mentally spar with them and come prepared with facts that back up each aspect of your overall argument.

The catch: Don’t assume that getting a “yes” from this type of detractor signals a conversion into an everlasting supporter. You may have persuaded them on this specific issue, but they may disagree with you again in the future. If that’s true, expect to have another cognitive conversation on that separate argument.

The Champion Conversion

When to use it: When the detractor isn’t easily persuaded through cognitive arguments, or when they harbor a grievance in your relationship with them, engaging in debates may be futile. Take, for example, a management decision where you’d like to promote a qualified individual who performed brilliantly under your supervision, but a counterpart of yours argues that your subordinates often get promoted over hers. Even if your promotion candidate is objectively more deserving, others may still feel resentment and refuse to provide support.

How it works: Don’t jump in and try to convince the other person. Instead, invest time in personally learning about and building rapport with them. Here, it’s not about arguments or presentation, at least initially, but understanding their perspective and why they might feel personally affronted. For instance, you might ask questions about her team, and which team members she feels have the most potential. Gradually convert this detractor into someone who is your champion or advocate, perhaps by shedding more light on the qualities that you value in individuals, both on your team as well as your counterpart’s team, or showing how you value her leadership style. By the time the decision must be made, try to make sure you’re both on the same page as to which qualities matter for promotion decisions and that you’ve clearly articulated how your candidate exemplifies those qualities.

The catch: No matter how much of a champion the other person becomes, don’t expect them to agree with a decision that’s fundamentally illogical. You can’t rely on relationship alone; your stance still needs to be backed by clear logic. Additionally, these types of detractors can easily sense if you’re trying to manipulate the situation to get them on your side. Authenticity is key: allow the other person to see who you are so that they can more fully understand your point of view.

The Credible Colleague Approach

When to use it: There are times when the detractor’s deeply-held personal beliefs make them fundamentally opposed to your proposal. Take, for example, a colleague who might disagree with you on the need to run a necessary clinical trial for a new product. Because they believe that the clinical trial might be harmful in some way or run counter to their values, they oppose the idea, even though the evidence shows that the benefits outweigh the harm. It’s sometimes tough to pinpoint where these personal beliefs stem from, but some combination of the person’s upbringing, personal history, and unspoken biases will, at times, make it seemingly impossible for them to accept a decision, no matter what logical or emotional argument you throw their way. In these situations, there isn’t much you can say or do to change their mind.

How it works: Rather than trying to argue with someone who seems resistant, bring in a credible colleague. A champion of your position from another part of the organization, whether they are a peer or superior, may be better-suited to convince this detractor. This forces the detractor to disentangle who you are from what your argument might be and evaluate the idea based on its objective merits. If you and the detractor are at an impasse, the credible colleague might just tip the scales in your favor.

The catch: Calling in an external supporter is a double-edged sword. While it can achieve the outcome you want, it may exacerbate your detractor’s opposition, especially if the detractor feels that the credible colleague has forced them to take your side. It’s critical to find the right colleague who can tactfully advocate for your position while maintaining a cordial relationship.

It’s not easy to have detractors, and it’s even harder to change their minds. The key is to understand the source of their resistance and use a targeted strategy that best resonates with your particular detractor. You’ll have a much better chance of getting a “yes.”

https://hbr.org/2020/07/how-to-actually-change-someones-mind?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_source=LinkedIn&tpcc=orgsocial_edit

 

Topley’s Top 10 – December 08, 2022

1. Average Short Interest Per Sector

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-december-6th-2022/


2. Average Earnings Contraction in a Recession -20%

Jack Ablin Cresset-The average earnings contraction over the last nine recessions (dating back to 1957) was nearly 20 per cent. That’s a far cry from the mid-single-digit profit growth analysts anticipate over the coming year.

https://cressetcapital.com/post/equities-brace-for-recession/


3. Europe Warmer Weather Lowering Gas Demand

Michael A. Arouet

@MichaelAArouet

https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet


4. Natural Gas Chart Update

Nattie Gas…50day thru 200day to downside…trading below 200day since mid-October….approaching previous October lows


5. Much Talked About Chart…The Divide Between Price of Oil and Energy Stocks

LPL Research

https://lplresearch.com/2022/12/01/the-great-divide-energy-sector-crude-oil/

www.stockcharts.com


6. NonTraded REITS $3.7B in Redemptions….12x Increase Over Last Year….Blackrock Gated Up Its Private REIT Withdraws

Investors are frantically pulling money out of real estate. Nontraded REITs saw $3.7 billion in redemptions in Q3. This is a 12x increase over last year.

Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA

@GRDecter

https://twitter.com/GRDecter


7. Solar Capacity Will Overtake Coal in 2027

Here comes the sun

Renewables are set to become the world’s leading source of electricity generation by 2025, with solar power leading the charge, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.
The global energy crisis, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has hastened the need for countries to look beyond fossil fuels, with the IEA expecting the world to add twice as much renewable capacity from 2022-2027 than we managed in the 5 years previous.

Power shift
As we’ve recreated in the chart above (which omits nuclear energy), the IEA report estimates that by 2025, renewable resources’ share of the world’s power capacity is projected to hit 48%, overtaking coal and natural gas. By 2027, the growth translates into an extra 2,400 gigawatts of renewable power capacity — a figure that’s ~30% higher than what the IEA forecast last year.
Arguably the most important narrative shift is that the move to renewables is increasingly becoming less about environmental incentives. Indeed, in many cases renewables can be the most economical choice — the IEA report states that “despite elevated commodity prices, utility-scale solar PV is the least costly option for new electricity generation in a significant majorityof countries worldwide“. The profit motive can be an ugly one, but, when it starts to align with wider societal goals, change can happen quickly.Go deeper: read an executive summary of the IEA’s findings here, or dive into the full report.

www.chartr.com


8. The U.K. is 10 Years in Front of U.S. with Online Gambling.

Story by Gavin Finch, Harry Wilson and Ann Choi

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-gambling-addiction-stories-how-uk-got-hooked-on-online-casino-betting/?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L


9. 24 Million Homes Ripe for Remodeling

John Burns Real Estate Good news for remodeling:24 million homes will be “ripe” for major renovations and improvement projects by 2027.  The “Prime Remodel” years is the predictable stage in a home’s lifecycle when it undergoes a series of major improvement projects.  Before 2021, this “Prime Remodeling Years” cohort of homes had never topped 21 million

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericfinnigan1/


10. If You Want to Be Smart, You Must Do This-Ryan Holiday

There are lots of smart people.

There are not a lot of people who can do this smart thing.

The poet John Keats called it “negative capability”—the mental fortitude to be able to entertain multiple contradictory ideas in your head at the same time. Or as F. Scott Fitzgerald famously wrote, “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless, yet be determined to make them otherwise.”

The world is complicated, ambiguous, paradoxical, and contradictory. To make sense of it, to survive it, one must be able to balance conflicting ideas. To try to force everything into a simple box, or adhere to a simple theory? It just won’t work.

People will sometimes email me, “Ryan, Marcus Aurelius contradicts himself. Sometimes he says to zoom in and other times he says to zoom out.” Or they’ll point out that Seneca’s writings tell us to be aware of the dangers of the future and also never avoid anxiety and worry.” Or that they are confused because Law 3 in Robert Greene’s The 48 Laws of Power is “conceal your intentions” but Law 6 is “court attention at all cost.”

I’ve even gotten this about Discipline is Destiny which of course talks about being strict with yourself…and also not so strict with yourself. Is that a contradiction?

The answer is yes.

The famous lines from Walt Whitman are,

Do I contradict myself?

Very well then I contradict myself,

(I am large, I contain multitudes.)

Yes, Marcus Aurelius contradicts himself. Yes, the Stoics contradict themselves. Yes, Robert Greene’s laws of power contradict each other. Yes, I contradict myself.

Because the world contradicts itself. Because different situations call for different things. Because everything in life depends on context.

Look, even the premise that only a genius can manage negative capability is itself a little contradictory. Because you know who has no problem holding a bunch of conflicting ideas at the same time? Really dumb people!

So negative capability seems to follow the Midwit Meme curve.

So how do you cultivate the kind of negative capability Keats was talking about? Here are some thoughts:

[1] Read widely and from people you disagree with. One of the most surprising parts of Seneca’s writing is how often the avowed Stoic quotes Epicurus, the founder of the rival school, Epicureanism. The reason he was so familiar with Epicurus, Seneca wrote, was not because he was deserting the writings of the Stoics, but because he was reading like a spy in the enemy’s camp. That is, he was deliberately reading and immersing himself into the thinking and the strategies of those he disagreed with. To see if there was anything he could learn. Epicurus’s dictum was that “One sage is no wiser than another.” The Stoics believed this too—that we should actively pursue and engage with anyone who can be a source of wisdom to us, regardless of the school of thought from which that wisdom arose. Because if there is wisdom out there to be had, we’d be wise to avail ourselves of it.

[2] Study deeply. Marcus Aurelius chided himself “not to be satisfied with just getting the gist of it.” Instead, he said, “read attentively.” Go “directly to the seat of knowledge.” Seek out tutors and mentors. Linger, as Seneca said, on a small number of master thinkers, reading and re-reading their work. Go way beyond the “gist.”

[3] Put yourself in rooms where you’re the least knowledgeable person. Observe and learn. Ask questions. That uncomfortable feeling, that defensiveness that you feel when your most deeply held assumptions are challenged? Do it deliberately. Let it humble you. In my own education, I’ve always followed Marcus Aurelius’ rule: “go straight to the seat of intelligence.” He also writes, “Mastery of reading and writing requires a master. Still, more so life.” For me, Robert Greene was and is my master in writing and, more so, in life. Go straight to the sources of knowledge, people who have different perspectives and expertise, people who can help you see things from a new angle and to consider alternative viewpoints. Absorb as much as you can from them.

[4] Understand that timing and context are everything. Confucius was once asked for advice by a student, and in replying essentially urged him to wait and be patient. Later he was asked for advice by another student, and advised that student to not be patient and to solve the problem immediately. An observant third student noticed the seemingly contradictory nature of Confucius’ responses and asked him to explain. Confucius replied, “Ran Qiu is over cautious and so I wished to urge him on. Zilu, on the other hand, is too impetuous, and so I sought to hold him back.” Everybody is different. Every situation is different.

[5] Embrace epistemic humility. Epictetus reminds us that “it’s impossible to learn that which you think you already know.” To the Stoics, particularly Zeno, conceitedness was the primary impediment to wisdom. Because when you’ve always got answers, opinions and ready-made solutions, what you’re not doing is learning. The physicist John Wheeler said that “as our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance.” The point is the more you know the more you realize there is much more to know.

[6] Keep your identity small. This is a rule from the great Paul Graham. His point was that the more you identify with things—being a member of a certain political party, being seen as smart, being seen as someone who drives a fancy car or someone who belongs to this club or that ideology—the harder it is for you to change your mind or entertain new points of view. You want to remain a free agent.

[7] Don’t always have an opinion. It’s possible, Marcus Aurelius said, to not have an opinion. Practice the ability of having absolutely no thoughts about something. You should be able to have multiple ideas you’re working on in your head at one time, as opposed to a bunch of things you have strong opinions about.

[8] Flexibility is key. A colleague of Churchill once observed that Churchill “venerated tradition but ridiculed convention.” The past was important, but it was not a prison. The old ways—what the Romans called the mos maiorum—were important but not to be mistaken as perfect. Plenty of people have been buried in coffins of their own making. Before their time too. Because they couldn’t understand that “the way they’d always done things” wasn’t working anymore. Or that “the way they were raised” wasn’t acceptable anymore. We must cultivate the capacity for change, for flexibility and adaptability. Continuously, constantly.

It’s one of the greatest exchanges between Epictetus and a student. “Tell me what to do!” the student says. Epictetus replied, “you must understand how laughable it is to say, ‘Tell me what to do!’” The student is confused. Epictetus says, “What advice could I possibly give? No, a far better request is, ‘Train my mind to adapt to any circumstance.’ . . . In this way, if circumstances take you off script . . . you won’t be desperate for a new prompting.”

It would be nice if someone could show us exactly what to do in every situation. Indeed, this is what we spend a good portion of our lives doing: preparing for this, studying for that. Saving for or anticipating some arbitrary point in the future. But that’s not life. Life punches us in the face. It destroys our plans.

The Stoics did not seek to have the answer for every question or a plan for every contingency. Yet they’re also not worried. Why? Because they have confidence that they’ll be able to adapt and change with the circumstances. Rooted in the teachings of Epictetus, the United States Navy Vice Admiral and prisoner of war James Stockdale perfectly described this mental attitude when he said that to survive years of imprisonment and torture, he needed a paradoxical combination of optimism and realism. He needed to maintain unwavering faith that he would ultimately prevail, and at the same time, he needed to confront the brutal facts of his current situation. As Fitzgerald put it above, Stockdale needed to “be able to see that things are hopeless yet be determined to make them otherwise.”

Instead of looking for instruction, the Stoic cultivates skills like creativity, independence, self-confidence, ingenuity, and the ability to problem solve. They cultivate negative capability. They cultivate true genius.

In this way, they are resilient instead of rigid.

https://ryanholiday.net/if-you-want-to-be-smart-you-must-do-this/

Topley’s Top 10 – December 07, 2022

1. I Listen to a Lot of Podcasts and Below is Top Ranked Episode….2 of My Favorite Groups Discussing Current State of Markets

Compound and Friends Josh Brown and Michael Batnick Interview Jeff DeGraff of Renmac Research ..TONS of good information.

Click to Listen

https://thereformedbroker.com/podcast/


2. Big Technical Break….U.S. Dollar Closes Below 200 Day Moving Average.


3. Gold (GLD) Dollar Weakens…GLD Runs Up to 200 Day and Backs Away.

www.stockcharts.com


4. December S&P Seasonality

Dorsey Wright Around this time each year we like to emphasize just how strong, and often positive, the month of December has historically been. The image below summarizes these tendencies and reveals that since 1957 the S&P 500 (SPX) has posted a gain in December 78% of the time and returned 1.73% on average (1.68% median return). The month with the second most positive returns is November, with a batting average of 72%.


5. For 2023 Bear Market??…A lot of Financials Near Highs.

Interactive Brokers

SEIC-SEI Investments

JEF Jefferies Financial Group

www.stockcharts.com


6. 10-year chart S&P Up Double Lithium ETF (LIT) …..5 Year Chart Not So Much

5 Year Chart Lithium ETF (LIT) +85% vs. S&P +50%

www.yahoofinance.com


7. Global Real Wages Go Negative

ZEROHEDGE BY TYLER DURDEN-The global inflation crisis paired with lackluster economic growth and an outlook clouded by uncertainties have led to a decline in real wages around the world, a new report published by the International Labour Organization (ILO) has found.

As Statista’s Felix Richter reports, according to the 2022-23 Global Wage Report, global real monthly wages fell 0.9 percent this year on average, marking the first decline in real earnings at a global scale in the 21st century.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/global-wages-take-hit-inflation-eats-paychecks


8. Amazon’s new robot is capable of handling millions of different products and could replace human workers

BYMATT DAY AND BLOOMBERG

Amazon.com Inc. has developed a robot capable of identifying and handling individual items, a milestone in the e-commerce giant’s efforts to reduce its reliance on the human order pickers who currently play a key role in getting products from warehouse shelves to customers’ doorsteps.

The robotic arm, tipped by a set of what appear to be retractable suction cup-like devices, is called Sparrow. In a company video released on Thursday, the machine autonomously grabbed items of different sizes and textures from a plastic tote and placed them in other receptacles. Amazon said the bot is capable of handling millions of different products.

Automating such tasks may look simple but has stumped Amazon roboticists for years. Machines at the company’s facilities have long lifted pallets, arranged tightly packed shelves and shuttled packages on conveyor belts. But Amazon also employs hundreds of thousands of workers, whose dexterity and intuition currently let them pick and pack items more quickly and more reliably than existing machines.

If widely deployed, robots like Sparrow could eventually render large portions of that workforce unnecessary, shifting the emphasis from employees who perform simple tasks that require little training, to a likely smaller cadre of technicians who supervise and maintain robotic systems. Amazon is the second largest private employer in the US behind Walmart Inc., with 1.54 million workers worldwide.

Amazon has for years been criticized for pushing its workers too hard in a relentless effort to get packages to customers quickly. Warehouse injuries exceed Amazon’s logistics peers, drawing the scrutiny of workplace regulators looking to ensure the company isn’t putting employees in harm’s way. Groups seeking to unionize these facilities are also pushing for improved safety and working conditions, along with higher pay.

“Working with our employees, Sparrow will take on repetitive tasks, enabling our employees to focus their time and energy on other things, while also advancing safety,” the company said in a blog post on Thursday. “At the same time, Sparrow will help us drive efficiency by automating a critical part of our fulfillment process so we can continue to deliver for customers.”

It wasn’t immediately clear how quickly or widely Sparrow would be deployed. The robot’s use could require a redesign of Amazon’s main warehouses, called fulfillment centers. They currently store most types of products on racks of mesh shelving that are likely incompatible with robotic arms like Sparrow.

Amazon has long aspired to mostly automate its warehouses. But the company has been sensitive to the perception that it plans to eliminate jobs. During a media event at an Amazon robotics research and manufacturing facility outside Boston, executives focused on the new types of roles increasingly automated facilities would require and said many frontline workers would be retrained for these higher-skilled jobs.

Sign up for the Fortune Features email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.

https://fortune.com/2022/11/10/amazon-new-robot-sparrow-replace-human-workers/


9. All the Favorite Covid Google Search Words Traffic Imploding Except…”Remote Jobs”

Chartr.com

Here to stay

Last week we explored the topic of remote work. If you missed it, the short version of the story is that roughly half of all job applications on LinkedIn last month were for remote work positions, way more than the number of remote work positions actually available. That got us thinking about other pandemic trends, many of which haven’t stuck around in the same way.

A time in spaceData from Google reveals how online yogahome workouts, the breadmaking boom and even searches for wine delivery all struggled to maintain their early 2020 momentum as life in America returned to something resembling “normal”.
Much to the chagrin of Zoom executives, far fewer people are searching for the video chat tool, making the company’s share price chart look oddly similar to the search trend presented above. Indeed, many of the lifestyle changes that could have lingered ended up being short-lived.

One hobby that has maintained some buzz is chess. Searches for “online chess” got a modest bump during the pandemic as competitive board game players turned to web versions of the ancient game to scratch their competitive itch. Then Netflix’s popular show The Queen’s Gambit came along and from there the game has made headlines a number of times — thanks in part to a cheating scandal. All told, daily user figures have quintupled to 5 million at Chess.com since 2020, according to the platform.

www.chartr.com


10. 3 Key Elements of a Fulfilling Life

Arash Emamzadeh-Psychology Today

  • The building blocks of a fulfilled life include resources (e.g., support), personal characteristics (e.g., curiosity), and life quality.
  • Cognitive and emotional evaluations include being free of regret, achieving self-development and other important goals, and leaving a legacy.
  • Sources of fulfillment include relationships, occupation, savoring life, recreational activities, and spirituality.

Correlates of a Satisfying Life-The following nine categories were the sources from which participants drew fulfillment.

  • Relationships and community: Sharing quality time with others.
  • Occupation: Living one’s calling.
  • Recreational activities: Music, exercise, enjoyment of small things, etc.
  • Learning: Meeting new people and exposure to new points of view.
  • Partnership: A loving romantic partnership.
  • Parenting: Raising children well.
  • Civic engagement: Working for a good cause.
  • Spirituality: Living spiritually.
  • Savoring: Enjoying every moment.

The biggest sources from which participants drew fulfillment were relationships and community and occupation. For instance, “I want professional fulfillment in a job where I add value to others through my skills.” (Female, age 32).

Antecedents of a Satisfying Life

The contextual aspects that facilitated a gratifying life:

  • Resources: Social and psychological resources, such as a sheltered (but not overprotected) childhood, social integration, social support, healthy self-connectionself-confidence, and effective problem-solving and coping skills. To illustrate, a 58-year-old male participant suggested fulfillment results from going “through life with confidence and self-assurance.”
  • Personal characteristics: Positive attitude, taking responsibility and showing initiative, positive traits (e.g., modesty, courage, persistence, curiosity), and acceptance. An example, for trait acceptance, was, “Being able to accept things in life that you would do differently today.” (Female, age 83).
  • Quality of life: Health, financial security and well-being, personal freedom, work/education opportunities, work-private life balance, and luck.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/finding-new-home/202212/3-key-elements-fulfilling-life