Topley’s Top 10 – March 30, 2023

1. Q1 in One Chart….QQQ +17% vs. RPV S&P Value ETF -5.5%

www.yahoofinance.com


2. Housing Affordability Worse than 2008….Big Difference-We Don’t Have the Leverage or Inventory of 2008

https://twitter.com/Barchart/statu/1640886723134603264


3. Homebuilders Holding Up Under Slowdown….Got Back to 2022 Highs


4. Most Americans The Largest Part of Net Worth is their Home

https://twitter.com/PeterMallouk


5. Office Space Vacancy 18.7% Highest in History

https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti


6. Alibaba Big Move this Week but Not Even Back to 2023 Highs

www.stockcharts.com


7. Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Standards Near Previous Recession Levels.

FRED Charts

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM


8. Renewables Produce More Electricity than Coal

www.chartr.com


9. Here are 9 eye-popping allegations in the U.S. government’s lawsuit against Binance

Lukas I. Alpert. Marketwatch

The CFTC has accused Binance of doing everything it could to avoid having to follow U.S. regulations.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit Monday against crypto exchange Binance and its charismatic CEO, Changpeng Zhao, alleging they went to great lengths to do business with U.S. customers while not following U.S. regulations.

The suit spells out a litany of alleged offenses that harkened back to wild west days of cryptocurrencies where no rules applied, despite Binance claiming it was playing by the rules.

The company says it is surprised by the CFTC’s as it had been working closely for years with the agency and had spent $80 million and hired 650 additional people to bolster its compliance efforts.

Here are nine of the most eye-popping allegations contained in the CFTC suit:

1) Where Chaopeng Zhao goes, Binance goes

The suit said the company was purposely vague about where it was based, with its founder, who is often called simply CZ, often saying that wherever he happened to be in the world, was the company’s headquarters that day.

2) Whatever you do, don’t let anyone know you’re American

Regulators allege Binance counseled its high-value U.S. customers to log in to their accounts using virtual private networks — or VPNs — to obscure their location. The company also didn’t typically ask these clients to provide any identifying documents as required by U.S. law.

3) What regulations?

The suit claims that Binance never registered with U.S. regulators and simply ignored U.S. laws despite the fact that its largest group of clients was in the U.S.

4) You might want to watch your back

Binance is accused of warning its VIP clients if they ever came under investigation by law enforcement. Account advisors were told to contact the clients immediately if their account had been frozen or unfrozen. If the account was unfrozen, they were instructed to  “ not directly tell the user to run, just tell them their account has been unfrozen and it was investigated by XXX. If the user is a big trader, or a smart one, he/she will get the hint.”

5) Don’t mind the man behind the curtain

Regulators say Binance quietly operated some 300 house accounts that made trades on its own exchange, which could affect prices, without telling customers. It exempted the trading entities, including Merit Peak and Sigma Chain, from its own anti-fraud and insider-trading policies.

6) Who needs records?

The suit alleges that Binance executives frequently used disappearing chat programs like Wechat, Telegram and SIgnal to communicate internally and with customers.

7) A maze of companies

The suit charged that Binance used a “maze” of ownership structures to purposely obscure where each entity operated from, making jurisdiction challenging.

8) Everything comes from the top

Despite running a multi-billion business, regulators say CZ micromanged even the smallest decisions, once personally approving a $60 expense for office furniture in a month the company brought in $700 million in revenue.

9) There’s a whale in the room

Regulators identified one Chicago-based firm as controlling some 12% of all of Binance’s trading volume, and that CZ urged them to do business on the exchange using non-US IP addresses.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-9-eye-popping-allegations-in-the-u-s-governments-lawsuit-against-binance-1f8125b6?mod=home-page


10. Change: Humankind’s Greatest Asset

By Jim Rohn | March 17, 2023 |    SUCCESS.COM

Our results are only limited by our imaginations. History has proven that time and again.

Once upon a time, it was a technological impossibility for humans to travel into outer space. In 1969, however, the first man stepped out onto the surface of the moon. The miraculous process of converting this dream into reality began when President John F. Kennedy challenged the scientific community to do whatever was necessary to see to it that America “commit itself to achieving the goal, before [the] decade [was] out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.” That challenge awakened the spirit of a nation by planting the seed of possible future achievement into the fertile soil of imagination. With that one bold challenge, the impossible path became the course for reality.

I can tell you with absolute certainty that the same principles that put men on the moon have the power to take you a long, long way in your own life. The unique combination of desire, planning, effort and perseverance will always work its magic. The question is indeed not whether this formula for success will work for a person, but whether a person will work the formula. That is the unknown variable, the challenge that confronts us all. We can all go from wherever we are to wherever we want to be—provided we first have the courage to believe in that dream.

I know, because it happened in my own life. By the time I was 25, I was broke and embarrassed—I felt like I was a failure, and well on my way to failing more. But with mentorship, study and hard work, I changed my circumstances.

Of course, it didn’t happen overnight. The first thing I had to realize is what I was doing that brought me such poor results.

The status quo leads to failure

Failure is not a single cataclysmic event. Just as we don’t succeed overnight, we don’t fail overnight, either. The difference between failure and success is whether we choose to learn from and build upon our past mistakes or continue to make the same poor decisions. To put it more simply, failure is nothing more than a few errors in judgment repeated every day.

Now why would someone make an error in judgment and then be so foolish as to continuously repeat it? Perhaps the answer is because we do not think that it matters. On their own, our daily actions don’t seem that important. A minor oversight, a poor decision or a wasted hour don’t generally result in an instant and measurable impact. More often than not, we escape from any immediate consequences. If we have not bothered to read a single book  in the past 90 days, this lack of discipline does not seem to have any immediate effect. And since nothing drastic happened to us after the first 90 days, we repeat this error in judgment for another 90 days, and on and on it goes. Why? Because it doesn’t seem to matter.

And herein lies the great danger. Far worse than not reading books is not even realizing that it matters to do so.

People who eat too many of the wrong foods are contributing to their future health problems, but the joy of the moment overshadows the consequences of the future. Those who drink or smoke too much go on making these poor choices year after year after year—again, because it doesn’t seem to matter.

But the pain and regret of these kinds of errors in judgment are only delayed until a later date.

Failure’s most dangerous attribute is its subtlety—that is, when we do not seem to be failing. In fact, sometimes these accumulated errors occur throughout periods of great joy and prosperity in our lives. Since nothing terrible happens to us—since there are no instant consequences to capture our attention—we simply drift from one day to the next, repeating the errors, thinking the wrong thoughts, listening to the wrong voices and making the wrong choices. The sky did not fall in on us yesterday; therefore, the act was probably harmless.

We should know better than that.

This is why it is imperative to refine our philosophy in order to be able to make better choices. With a powerful, personal philosophy guiding our every step, we become more aware of our actions and the ripple effects they’ll have. That’s the great news: Just like the formula for failure, the formula for success is easy to follow. It’s just a few simple disciplines practiced every day.

Making a change is the formula for success

How can we change the errors in the formula for failure into the disciplines required in the formula for success? The answer is by making the future an important part of our current philosophy.

What if you developed a new discipline to take just a few minutes every day to look a little further down the road? Perhaps you would then be able to foresee the impending consequences of your current conduct. Armed with that valuable information, you would be able to take the necessary action to change your errors into new success-oriented disciplines.

As you change daily errors into daily disciplines, you’ll begin to experience the positive results. When we change our diet, our health improves noticeably. We begin to feel a new vitality when we start exercising. When we take the time to study, we experience a growing awareness and a new level of self-confidence. Whatever new discipline we begin to practice daily will likely produce exciting results that will drive us to become even better at developing other disciplines in the future.

I know one surefire way to create change: start. If you start today, then this would be the first day of a new life leading to a better future. If today is the day you start to try harder, and in every way make a conscious and consistent effort to change subtle and deadly errors into constructive and rewarding disciplines, you may never again settle for a life of mere existence rather than one of substance.

More often than not, however, change isn’t as simple as flipping a switch. In my experience, it’s usually driven by one of three emotions.

Emotions are the most powerful forces inside of us. Under the power of emotions, human beings can perform heroic (and barbaric) acts. To a great degree, civilization itself can be defined as the intelligent channeling of human emotion. Emotions are fuel and the mind is the pilot, which together propel the ship of progress.

Which emotions cause people to act? There are three basic ones; each, or a combination of them, can trigger the most incredible progress. The day that you allow these emotions to fuel you is the day you’ll turn your life around.

Disgust

One does not usually equate the word “disgust” with positive action. And yet, properly channeled, disgust can change a person’s life. The person who feels disgusted has reached a point of no return. They are ready to throw down the gauntlet at life and say, “I’ve had it!” That’s what I said after many humiliating experiences at age 25. I said, “I don’t want to live like this anymore.”

Productive feelings of disgust come when a person says, “Enough is enough.” It is then that they are primed to become something new.

Desire

Almost anything can trigger desire. It’s a matter of timing as much as preparation. It might be a song that tugs at the heartstrings. It might be a memorable sermon. Maybe it’s a movie, a conversation with a friend or a bitter experience. Even a book or an article such as this one can trigger the inner mechanism that will make some people say, “I want it now!”

Therefore, while searching for your hot button of pure, raw desire, welcome each positive experience into your life. Don’t erect a wall to protect you from experiencing life. The same wall that keeps out the shadows of your disappointment also keeps out the sunlight of enriching experiences. So let life touch you. The next touch could be the one that turns your life around.

Resolve

Resolve says, “I will.” These two words are among the most potent in the English language.

The mountain climber says, “I will climb the mountain. They’ve told me it’s too high, it’s too far, it’s too steep, it’s too rocky, it’s too difficult. But it’s my mountain. I will climb it.” Who can argue with such resolve?

If you want to create change in your life, promise yourself you will never give up.

You have to choose to make a change

Any day you wish, you can discipline yourself to change it all, to open the book that will expose your mind to new knowledge, start a new activity and begin the process of changing your life. You can do it immediately, or next week, next month or next year.

Or, you can do nothing. You can pretend rather than perform. And if the idea of having to change makes you uncomfortable, you can remain as you are. Truth be told, this is the more comfortable setting right now. You probably haven’t experienced those consequences yet.

But are you thinking about the future? If you are, you know why you would choose labor over rest, education over entertainment, truth over delusion and confidence over doubt.

The emotions are ours to feel and the choices are ours to make. Don’t curse the effect while nourishing the cause. As Shakespeare uniquely observed in Julius Caesar, “The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, / But in ourselves, that we are underlings.”

We create our circumstances by our choices. We have both the ability and the responsibility to make better choices, beginning today. Those who are in search of the good life do not need more answers or more time to think things over to reach better conclusions. They need the truth. They need the whole truth. And they need nothing but the truth.

We cannot allow our errors in judgment, repeated every day, to lead us down the wrong path. We must keep coming back to those basics that make the biggest difference in how our life works out. And then we must make the very choices that will bring life, happiness and joy into our daily lives.

Making a change starts with you

If I may be so bold to offer a final piece of advice for someone seeking and needing to make changes in their life: If you don’t like how things are, change it! You’re not a tree. You have the ability to totally transform every area of your life, and it all begins with your very own power of choice.

For more life-shaping advice from the icon of personal development and to download a free guide to setting powerful personal goals, visit JimRohn.com.

This article originally appeared in the Fall 2018 issue of SUCCESS magazine and has been updated. Photo by Inside Creative House/Shutterstock

https://www.success.com/change-humankinds-greatest-asset/

Topley’s Top 10 – March 29, 2023

1. History of Spikes in One-Week Money Market Flows.

Irrelevant Investor @michaelbatnick

https://twitter.com/michaelbatnick

2. Fed Fund Rate Now Above Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation)

@Charlie BilelloIn looking at the recent inflation data, the Fed seems to finally have room to pause.

Importantly, the Fed Funds Rate is now above Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation), suggesting that monetary policy is now entering a contractionary stage.

3. Small Banks Hold $1Trillion in Treasuries

Torsten Slok Apollo Group

4. UBS Chart Update…UBS Held 200-Week Moving Average Post CS Buyout

UBS Hit $7 During Covid Crisis

www.stockcharts.com

5. Nasdaq 100 Leading 2023…Top 5 Holdings 40% of ETF.

MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA…40% of QQQ.

https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html?gclid=CjwKCAjwoIqhBhAGEiwArXT7Ky1Ax8I9Jwp_NYD8MT4o2DH6L1yr14Z-puF4SD4awfUtsc0Afp7gCBoCDCsQAvD_BwE

6. Cyclical vs. Systemic (structural) Bear Markets.

Jack Ablin Cresset—Good Picture of S&P Corrections

https://cressetcapital.com/post/bear-stearns-2007-deja-vu-is-svb-early-warning-of-systemic-equity-market-selloff/

7. Value Vs. Growth Recent History Chart

Zerohedge Value has outperformed Growth for 3 straight days… but note where the reversal happened (this is Russell 1000 Value / Russell 1000 Growth)…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-big-tech-breakdown-credit-calm-bitcoin-bullion-bounce

8. Indo-Pacific Region 65% of World Population

https://www.insightsonindia.com/2022/12/21/editorial-analysis-accepting-the-new-normal-in-the-indo-pacific-contestation/

9. Ski resorts in California got so much snow they’re going to stay open through June

By Zoe Sottile, CNN A snowboarder speeds down a run at Mammoth Mountain Ski Area. Peter Morning/Mammoth Mountain Ski Area CNN —

The slopes are open for summer, at least in California.

Several California ski resorts have announced they have received so much snow that they plan to stay open until well into the summer months.

Mammoth Mountain, a popular four-season resort located in the Eastern Sierra mountains, announced earlier this week it would be open for skiing at least until the end of July. This is the earliest in the year the resort has ever announced it would be open so late, communications director Lauren Burke told CNN over email.

Burke said that the resort was just 5 inches away from breaking its season snowfall record of 668” inches, set in 2010.

“We aim to keep lifts spinning until as long as conditions allow, which definitely could go into August this season,” she wrote. “Spring skiing and riding conditions are going to be the best we’ve ever seen with the mountain in mid-winter form.”

Snow blankets Mammoth Mountain.

Peter Morning/Mammoth Mountain Ski Area

Similarly, Palisades Tahoe announced on Thursday it would continue to operate the Alpine portion of the resort until the July 4 weekend. They attributed the extension to “Lake Tahoe’s second snowiest winter on record.”

California has faced dramatic weather conditions in the past weeks. The state has been racked by powerful, atmospheric river storms that have brought a deluge of rain and snow after a yearslong, historic megadrought. The onslaught of moisture has relieved the drought and replenished crucial reservoirs, but has also triggered flooding and mudslides in some parts of the state.

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that it expects the West’s influx of rain and snow will likely turn off in April.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/california-ski-resorts-snow-extended-season/index.html?utm_campaign=mb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew

10. A CEO shares the 5 toxic personality types he sees ‘over and over’ again—‘watch for these signs’

Matt Higgins, Contributor@MHIGGINS

The world is filled with toxic people, and working with them is a pain. The key is to learn how to identify them early on, but this can be challenging.

When you meet a person for the first time, you are seeing them at their best selves. So when I find someone hard to get along with or who displays behavior I can’t explain, I get away quickly.

In my 10-plus years of being a CEO, investor and founder, I’ve worked with thousands of people in business, and there are five types of toxic personalities I see over and over again.

To avoid working with these people as much as possible, watch for these signs:

1. Withholders

Withholders are unable to deliver praise or feel happy when someone else steps up and contributes to a group success. They are wired by insecurity or the need for domination.

They resent anyone who possesses skills they don’t have or who doesn’t feel the same self-loathing that they are plagued with. If you are thriving, they see it as their mission to bring you down.

How to handle them: Withholders take advantage of those who don’t speak up. Actively point out the strengths you each bring to the table. Demonstrate that, with your combined efforts, you can both achieve positive results.

2. Hijackers

It’s not always so brazen and extreme, but Hijackers are essentially Withholders with the added bonus of aggression. They want to trade on your vulnerability, take what you are great at, and claim it for themselves.

I’ve seen a lot of Hijackers in managerial roles. What they don’t understand is that to extract value from creatives, they must be empathetic to other people’s deficiencies — instead of trying to exploit them.

How to handle them: Own your achievements and demand credit when it’s due. Hijackers are less likely to bully someone who is assertive and who displays a strong sense of confidence.

3. Victims

Generally, good performers live in a place of gratitude. They don’t feel entitled to success, so they’re thrilled and thankful when it arrives.

But Victims live in a place of constant injustice. They see every bump in the road as confirmation that they are being unfairly targeted.

How to handle them: A Victim’s central argument might be that they are burdened with an undue workload. So raise your hand to volunteer, but know that your offer will likely be rejected. Going forward, remind them that you are willing to help, while also shouting out colleagues who are team players.

4. Martyrs

Martyrs are like victims who actually do the work, but they don’t do it well enough to justify the psychological drain they place on an organization.

They take on as much as they can handle — not to help the broader team, but to confirm the narrative they carry around about themselves as unjustly forced to take on the burdens of others.

How to handle them: Convince them that the greatest service they can do in pursuit of a cause is to delegate to people best suited to perform the individual tasks. Encourage them to redirect their energy into deploying others, instead of taking everything on by themselves.

5. Gaslighters

Gaslighters will spend their energy trying to rewrite reality, to the detriment of everyone around them. They often possess narcissistic traits.

They combine the qualities of Withholders, Hijackers, Victims and Martyrs all in one, attempting to convince people that they are not seeing what’s going on right in front of their eyes.

How to handle them: Put guardrails in place to keep them on track to deliver whatever value they can, and ignore the rest. If you don’t spend any energy engaging with their view of the world, the fire they’re trying to ignite will never take hold.

Matt Higgins is an investor and CEO of RSE Ventures. He began his career as the youngest press secretary in New York City history, where he helped manage the global press response during 9/11. Matt’s book, “Burn the Boats: Toss Plan B Overboard and Unleash Your Full Potential,” is out now. Follow him on Twitter @mhiggins.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/ceo-and-founder-shares-toxic-personalities-he-avoids-at-all-costs-and-signs-to-watch-for.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-pull-back-from-values-that-once-defined-u-s-wsj-norc-poll-finds-df8534cd

Topley’s Top 10 – March 27, 2023

1. FDIC Failed Bank List-75 Banks Failed in Last 10 Years…All Depositors Back Stopped.

FDIC Website List https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/


2. Money Markets are the New Hot Asset

Steve Goldstein  Marketwatch

Another bubble has emerged, courtesy of the bank-sector crisis which has already felled three U.S. regional banks.

Bank of America analysts led by the Michael Hartnett say money-market funds are the new hot asset.

They point out that assets under management for money funds has now exceeded $5.1 trillion, up over $300 billion over the past four weeks. They also counted the biggest weekly flows to cash since March 2020, the biggest six-week inflow to Treasurys ever, and the largest weekly outflow from investment-grade bonds since Oct. 2022.

The last two times money-market fund assets surged — in 2008 and in 2020 — the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates. Hartnett is fond of the saying, “markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking,” and he noted a surge in emergency Fed discount window borrowing has historically occurred around a big stock-market low.

There is one difference this time, in that inflation is a reality and that labor markets, not just in the U.S. but in other industrialized nations, remains exceptionally strong. The Bank of America team counted 46 interest rate hikes this year, including by the Swiss National Bank after its rescue of Credit Suisse last week.

History, according to the BofA team, says to sell the last interest rate hike. “Credit and stock markets are too greedy for rate cuts, not fearful enough of recession,” they say. After all, when banks borrow from the Fed in an emergency, they tighten lending standards, which in turn results in less lending, and that leads to less small-business optimism, which eventually cracks the labor market.

 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-identifies-the-next-bubble-and-says-investors-should-sell-stocks-rather-than-buy-them-after-the-last-rate-hike-98b803ab 


3. Signs of Accounting Fraud on the Rise

WSJ Josh Zumbrun Manipulation of earnings from Corporate America is on the rise, an ominous omen for the U.S. economy. That is the conclusion of new research on accounting fraud, using a technique that flagged Enron as an earnings manipulator several years before the energy company’s spectacular 2001 implosion.

“We think this is a measure of misinformation in the economy,” said Dr. Beneish. The new aggregate measure was published in a December paper, and the latest data—compiled in March and shared with The Wall Street Journal—shows that the collective probability of fraud across major companies is the highest in over 40 years.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/accounting-fraud-indicator-signals-coming-economic-trouble-506568a0


4. Biotech ETF -22% in 6 Weeks.


5. Apple Chart…50day thru 200day to Upside.

www.stockcharts.com


6. 60/40 Portfolio Closes Above 200 Day Moving Average….

50day thru 200day to upside if February

WWW.STOCKCHARTS.COM


7. Two-Year Treasury More Volatile than 2008 Great Financial Crisis

Bespoke Investment Group Below is one chart from this week’s Bespoke Report that you may find interesting. The most concerning aspect of the treasury market has been intraday volatility.  Traditionally, the two-year Treasury has been one of the least volatile areas of financial markets, but over the last month, the average daily move in the two-year yield has been over 17 basis points (bps), exceeding the peak volatility of the financial crisis to the most volatile trading since 1983.  These are not the types of moves you would expect to see in a well-functioning market and provide another example of something that’s ‘broken’ in the aftermath of the Fed’s most aggressive tightening cycle in forty years.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-bespoke-report-3-24-23-shaking-it-off


8. Tik Tok 834M Users Worldwide

https://www.insiderintelligence.com/charts/global-tiktok-user-stats/


9. 360,000 Jobs Reshored to the U.S. Last Year

WSJ


10. Farnam Street What it Means to Do Your Best….

What it means to do your best:

Doing your best is about the position you find yourself in when you show up. Over the long term, the average person who constantly puts themselves in a good position beats the genius who finds themselves in a poor position. What looks like talent is often good positioning. And the best way to put yourself in a good position is with good preparation.

 Source

Insight

“When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don’t. What you need is to identify the core principles – generally three to twelve of them – that govern the field. The million things you thought you had to memorize are simply various combinations of the core principles.”

— John T. Reed in Succeeding

Tiny Thought

Do my expectations match the level of effort I’m giving?

Etc.

Exact portions

“Every Sunday morning, Jeff (Bezos) makes pancakes. He wakes up early. He gets the Betty Crocker cookbook out every time, and I’m like, “OK, you’re the smartest man in the world; why don’t you have this memorized yet?” But he opens it up every time: Exact portions make the best pancakes in the world.”

 Source

https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – March 23, 2023

1. Groundhogs Day UBS and Credit Suisse get urgent bailout funds-NY Times Story from 2008

By Alan Cowell Oct. 16, 2008

PARIS — As the financial crisis continued to roll through world markets, the two leading Swiss banks said Thursday they had secured emergency support totaling some $14.1 billion, either from the Swiss authorities or from outside investors, including the Qatar Investment Authority.

UBS said it would receive a direct injection of government money worth some $5.3 billion, while Credit Suisse said it had raised $8.8 billion from “a small group of major global investors” including the Qatari authorities. The government injection of funds into UBS could represent a 9 percent stake in the bank, whose $44 billion write-downs related to toxic assets have been Europe’s worst.

Credit Suisse also reported a net third quarter loss of $1.3 billion after further write-downs.

Additionally, the Swiss National Bank said it had created a fund that would enable UBS, the country’s biggest bank, to transfer $60 billion worth of toxic assets from its balance sheet. UBS said the fund would be capitalized with $6 billion of equity capital provided by UBS and $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank.

UBS said in a statement: “With this transaction, UBS caps future potential losses from these assets, secures their long-term funding, reduces its risk-weighted assets and materially de-risks and reduces its balance sheet.”

For its part, the Swiss government said in separate statement that it was “confident that this package of measures will contribute to the lasting strengthening of the Swiss financial system.”

“The resulting stabilization is beneficial for overall economic development in Switzerland and is in the interests of the country as a whole,” the statement said.

Previously, the Swiss authorities had seemed to be standing apart from the wave of bailouts among European countries, who have pledged around $1.8 trillion to free up credit markets and support the continent’s banking system. But such is the size of the Swiss banking industry in relation to the overall economy that the Swiss might not have had the resources to bail out UBS and Credit Suisse if they ran into deep trouble.

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/business/worldbusiness/16iht-17swiss.17006058.html


2. Five Week Change in Deposits Leading Up to Banking Crisis

Jim Bianco Research


3. The Money Flows Still Going to Bonds

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Fund managers are still in bear town: long bonds, staples and cash; US equity weighting is at an 18 yr low. From BAML yesterday


4. XLE Energy ETF Never Made New 2023 Highs….Trading below 200day Moving Average.

www.stockcharts.com


5. XLF Financial Sector ETF 3rd Run at 200 Week Moving Average

XLF more diversified than bank ETFs ….touching 200 week moving average for third time since mid-2022

Top Holdings 25% of Portfolio Berkshire and JP Morgan

https://www.etf.com/XLF


6. NVIDIA Runs Up to Highs from One-Year Ago

NVDA almost hits exact number from last March


7. Recession Indicator Inventories to Sales Ratio

This ratio is not yet near previous recession levels…See arrows on chart.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RETAILIRSA


8. One Sub-Sector with Massive Inventory Build Up….Nike and Adidas 50% Increases in Inventory.

www.chartr.com


9. Who Do Citizens Trust? Congress Single Digits

Jack Ablin Cresset  https://cressetcapital.com/about/team/jack-ablin/


10. Founders Podcast Dinner with Charlie Munger

David SenraDavid Senra• 2nd• 2ndFounder at Founders PodcastFounder at Founders Podcast

 

I had dinner with Charlie Munger.

I spent over 3 hours with him.

I got to see his library. I could ask him any question I wanted.

At 99 he is still *ferociously* intelligent.

The most important lesson I learned from him that night was: GO FOR GREAT.

In typical Charlie fashion it is a combination of 4 simple ideas:

1. Charlie looks at everything through the lens of history. Human nature does not change. The same behaviors repeat forever.

2. Problems from time to time should be expected. This is an inescapable part of life.

3. Wise people do not whine about problems. They prevent them:

“Wisdom is prevention.” —Charlie Munger

4. Great businesses are rare. Great people are rare too. Great people and great businesses produce fewer problems.

Your mission in life is to get into a great business (and stay there)

and build relationships with great people.

Doing that will prevent the majority of problems that are under your control.

Go for great.

I made a podcast about what I learned from having dinner with Charlie Munger and rereading The Tao of Charlie Munger, you can listen to it here: https://lnkd.in/ezHrDnCb

https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidsenra/

 

Topley’s Top 10 – March 21, 2023

1. After Credit Suisse Bailout….UBS CDS Straight Up.

The Market does not like the UBS take under of Credit Suisse.


2. First Republic Bank -47% in One Day After Bailout.

90% Year to Date

https://www.google.com/search?q=frc+chart&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS898US898&oq=frc+chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i59l2.1544j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


3. S&P Financials Performance vs. Broad Market Equals Covid Dive


4. The Biggest Monthly Decline of 2-Year Yields Since 1980’s

The United States: The month-to-date decline has been the biggest since the early 1980s.

Source: The Daily Shot  https://dailyshotbrief.com/


5. Tech has Reversed All of 2022 Underperformance in Less than 3 Months

The tech sector has reversed nearly all of its 2022 underperformance in less than 3 months…

6. The Biggest Monthly Decline of 2-Year Yields Since 1980’s

The United States: The month-to-date decline has been the biggest since the early 1980s.

7. Tech has Reversed All of 2022 Underperformance in Less than 3 Months

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading The tech sector has reversed nearly all of its 2022 underperformance in less than 3 months…

Chart, histogram Description automatically generated

8. Amazon Another Large Layoff…Doubled Its Physical Footprint in 2020-2022

CNBC For the past year, Jassy has been trimming expenses across the company. Many unproven bets, like Amazon’s Scout delivery robot, a virtual tours service, Care telehealth program, and a video-calling device for kids were axed. He made the decision to shutter all of its 4-star, Pop Up and Books stores and, earlier this year, announced Amazon would close some Fresh supermarkets and Go cashierless convenience marts. Drone delivery, one of Bezos’ pet projects, is struggling mightily to get off the ground as it, too, faces cost cuts

Annie Palmer@ANNIERPALMER https://www.cnbc.com

Amazon trying to form a base in chart this year…watch to see if it holds lows

Chart

www.stockcharts.com

9. The Market Voted Negative on UBS/CS Merger Yesterday….Will Swiss Franc Still be Safe Haven? Another Chart to Watch.

Swiss economy dependent on the financial sector

Chart

www.stockcharts.com

10. How to Start Your Day Relaxed

Try these tips to help kick off your day in a calm, relaxed state of mind.

Bianca Ward

There are a group of people in the world who are very lucky. These are the ones who never seem to worry about anything. Stress washes over them, and they are able to just take whatever the world throws at them and deal with it, all the time keeping their blood pressure in check.

For most of us, it’s a lot more work than that to keep calm and be relaxed even in our normal, day-to-day lives. With this in mind, we need to make an effort to try and adjust our habits to include some stress-relieving tricks and help us find a little calmer in our day.

Start The Day Off Right

Experts agree that allowing the body to wake naturally is far better for you, and less stressful, than having a jarring alarm interrupt your beauty sleep. Of course, that’s the ideal, but when there is a job to get to, and a family to get fed and out of the door, it’s just not practical.

As a compromise, try and see if you can have at least one day a week when you can turn off the alarm and let the daylight gradually wake you. Just one day a week will give your body a break from the routine.

Take A Deep Breath

Various studies have been done on how important it is to breathe ‘right’, so once you’re up, open a window and take a good few, deep breaths.

Don’t worry if it’s raining or snowing, or if the sun’s beaming down. The weather doesn’t matter. It’s getting that air into your lungs that’s the important thing.

Obviously, if you live next to an overpass or similar, feel free to give this step a miss.

“Sometimes the most important thing in a whole day is the rest we take between two deep breaths”. – Etty Hillesum

Wash That Stress Right Out of Your Hair

Most of us enjoy a nice long soak in the bath, but it’s best to save that for the evening. In the morning, take a shower instead to help get the blood pumping.

Don’t listen to the doom and gloom of the early morning news while you are in there, either. Belt out a couple of upbeat songs.

Don’t worry about whether you’re in tune, or getting the words right, just let it go and release the energy.

Color Me Happy

Although there are those who proclaim that what we wear is not important and that clothes do not define us, there is another side to the story. Of course, they don’t define us, but they can be important in helping us feel good and calm and more able to face the day.

Plenty of us have an outfit that we love and that makes us feel confident and good when we wear it, but there’s more to clothes than that.

Color can play an important part too. White has associations with innocence and peace, whilst blue and green are both linked to tranquility, calmness, and balance.

Alternatively, if you want to inject a bit of optimism into your day, go for a splash of yellow.

Need to feel strong and powerful? Put on something red.

Don’t worry, you don’t have to dress in that color head to foot, just a tie, or a piece of jewelry in your happy color will all be of benefit.

Eat Right, Feel Right

Next, it’s that ‘most important meal of the day’, breakfast. There are plenty of people who skip breakfast, replacing it instead with a coffee grabbed on the way to work, but there’s a definite benefit, both physically and mentally, by making sure you get a decent start to the day, food-wise.

If you think about it, you’ve been effectively fasting all night, so it’s time to refuel your body for the day ahead. Going out on an empty stomach before taking in a big hit of caffeine isn’t going to do anything to build up that calm, relaxed state of mind you’re aiming for.

Porridge is a great start to the day as the oats not only release their energy gradually, but they’re also rich in B vitamins, which are useful in the fight against stress.

These vitamins are found in many whole grain foods, so if you don’t fancy a bowl of steaming porridge in the summer, try a bowl of muesli topped off with a fresh banana, and you’ll be setting your body up for a calm and relaxed morning.

Think Positive

Now you’re ready to head out of the door, there’s just one more thing; the power of positive thinking. Say to yourself, ‘I am calm and relaxed’. Repeat this several times. Although some studies indicate that saying this out loud is the most effective, in real life, it might not always be possible, so just take a few moments to yourself and repeat it in your head.

There’s plenty for us to stress about these days, both at home and in the world in general, but the more we can do, however small, to try to calm and prepare ourselves against these factors, the better we will feel. And the better we feel, the better those around us feel, which can only be good news.

https://addicted2success.com/life/how-to-start-your-day-relaxed/