1.The Most Hated Bull Market Ever Continues….January Redemptions in Domestic Equities.

Euphoria? Okay, sure. Maybe in word, but not in deed. Here’s Oppenheimer’s Ari Wald highlighting a divergence that merits attention…

While newsletter surveys are signaling optimism, recent fund flow data suggests that investor skepticism still lingers. For instance, ICI estimated a $2B net outflow from domestic equity ETFs and mutual funds for the week of Jan 6 which marks the first redemption since the US election. What investors are doing is often more important than what they’re saying, and we therefore view this lack of euphoria as a positive for the overall equity cycle.

From Josh Brown Blog
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/01/17/chart-o-the-day-bullish-but-selling/

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1.Speculators are Massively Short Stock Market Volatility and Short Treasuries….Contra-Indicator???

Equity Markets:  Risk appetite in the equity markets remains near multi-year highs. The chart below shows speculative accounts massively short VIX futures.

Rates: Short Treasuries is increasingly becoming a crowded trade. The chart below shows speculative accounts piling into the short 10yr note futures position.

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1.Junk Bond ETF Makes New Highs in 2017…$434 Billion of maturing junk paper must be refinanced in next 2 years.

50day thru 200 day to upside on Weekly Chart

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1.Measuring Europe Thru German Leadership.

German economic growth accelerated more than analysts forecast last year to its fastest pace since 2011,

as falling unemployment and record-low interest rates boosted spending. According to the Federal Statistics Office, GDP growth rose 1.9%, after a gain of 1.7% the previous year. Germany is the first of the world’s biggest developed economies to provide preliminary GDP data for 2016.
www.seekingalpha.com

German DAX-Sideways then Breakout….7% Spike 2017

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1.Nasdaq 269% Off Bottom.

Chart of the Day

For some perspective on the post-financial crisis rally, today’s chart illustrates how much of the downturn that occurred as a result of the financial crisis has been retraced by each of the five major stock market indexes. For example, the Dow peaked at 14,164.53 back in October 9, 2007 and troughed at 6,547.05 back on March 9, 2009. The most recent close for the Dow is 19,855.53 — it has retraced 174.7% of its financial crisis bear market decline. As today’s chart illustrates, each of these five major stock market indices have retraced over 170% of their financial crisis decline. However, it is the tech-laden Nasdaq that leads the pack with a retracement of 269% — impressive considering the severity of the financial crisis bear market.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20170111.htm?H

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