TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 24, 2025

1. Fear and Greed Index Hits “Extreme Greed”

CNN


2. Another Stat on “Non-Profit” Stock Index

Retail vs. non-profitable Tech. “The 10-day average of retail participation in non-profitable technology companies reached 23% — the highest level since a Goldman Sachs trading desk began tracking it — and rose to 25% this week.”

Daily Chartbook


3. Memes are Back

Bloomber


4. Here’s The Meme Recipe -via Barron’s

Barron’s

Here is the meme-stock recipe for creating a gamma squeeze, which appears to be the case with Opendoor Technologies , which all saw similiar sharp moves the week. As you’ll see, options gamma—an obscure way traders measure changes in the value of an options contract and associated stock—plays a role, but the activity is far more coordinated.

The first ingredient: Find a stock that can be easily pushed around. A heavily shorted stock is often a great place to start because it means that many investors have borrowed shares from their broker and sold them short in the market in anticipation that the stock will decline.

It also means that many investors are painfully sensitive to the potential of a stock rally. If the stock advances, those investors who have shorted the stock must buy it back at higher prices. If those investors panic, they create “a short squeeze,” which means they are basically competing with each other to buy back their stock at ever-higher prices. Kohl’s short-interest ratio is about 49%, which basically describes a pressure cooker.

The second ingredient: Buy at-the-money call options on the targeted stock. Such calls are basically the same as stock, but they have a superpower. Calls with strike prices that match the stock price often force options market makers to buy stock to hedge the stock’s gain.

Why? Because dealers always hedge risk, and when customers buy calls in anticipation that the stock will rise, the dealers must buy stock so they don’t lose money. The combination of aggressive call buying and dealers buying stock is what makes a stock like Kohl’s surge. The phenomenon is popularly called a gamma squeeze.

The third ingredient: Use social media to create awareness of the unusual stock and options trading. Make as many people as possible think that something extraordinary is happening, and that they should buy calls and stock. The social-media activity tends to create a huge wave of stock and call buying that the engineers of the gamma squeeze need to take profits.

The activity has a certain odor. Market regulators have done little more than watch from the sidelines. Rest assured, what happened with Kohl’s, GameStop, and so many other stocks will happen again.


5. Options Volume is Booming Again in 2025

MarketWatch


6. Rolex Traded Watch Index Rising with Meme’s and Crypto

Zerohedge


7. ETHA ETF AUM Doubles


8. YouTube is King 12.5% of All Viewing Time

@CharlieBilello

9. Nashville Tops List of Favorite U.S. Cities

10. Ten Tips for Calming Your Mind

Via Mark Hyman Here is what we know about how to influence the mind-body and the body-mind system. Consider these essential survival skills. You cannot thrive without them!

1. Address the Underlying Causes of Stress — Find the biological causes of problems with the mind by working on the 7 Keys to UltraWellness. Mercury toxicity or a magnesium or vitamin B12 deficiency or a toxic gut chemical or a gluten allergy could be changing your brain. So, by changing your body, you can change your mind!

2. Relax — Learn how to ACTIVELY relax. To engage the powerful forces of the mind on the body, you must DO something — you can’t just sit there watching television or drinking beer.

3. Learn New Skills — Try learning new skills such as meditation, deep breathing, yoga, biofeedback, and progressive muscle relaxation or take a hot bath, make love, get a massage, watch a sunset, or walk in the woods or on the beach.

4. Move Your Body — Exercise is a powerful, well-studied way to burn off stress chemicals and heal the mind, so just do it! It has been proven to be better than or equal to Prozac for treating depression.

5. Optimize Your Nutrition — Clean up your diet from mind-robbing molecules like caffeine, alcohol, and refined sugars and eat regularly to avoid the short-term stress of starvation on your body.

6. Supplement — Take a multivitamin and nutrients to help balance the stress response, such as vitamin C; the B-complex vitamins, including B6 and B5 or pantothenic acid; zinc; and most important, magnesium, the relaxation mineral.

7. Try Herbs — Use adaptogenic herbs (herbs that help you adapt and balance your response to stress) such as ginseng, Rhodiola rosea, Siberian ginseng, cordyceps, and ashwagandha.

8. Use Heat Therapy — Take a hot bath or a sauna to help your body deeply relax and turn on the relaxation response.

9. Change Your Beliefs — Examine your beliefs, attitudes, and responses to common situations and consider reframing your point of view to reduce stress.

10. Find a Community — Consciously build your network of friends, family, and community. They are your most powerful allies in achieving long-term health.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 23, 2025

1. Nikkei 225 Index (1949-2025)—Japanese Stock Market Finally Breaks Above 1990 Bubble Highs

MacroTrends


2. Tariffs Having Less of an Effect

Yahoo!Finance


3. Large Cap Growth Dominating Flows Again

Weekly ETF flows. “Over past week, flows into U.S. large-cap ETFs soared by nearly $10B … investment-grade bonds saw largest outflows, followed by U.S. small caps.”

Liz Ann Sonders


4. Putting Mega Cap Mag 7 in Perspective

The Irrelevant Investor


5. No Surprise…The Marriage of Tech and Defense VC Europe

PitchBook


6. Goldman Sachs and BNY join Forces to Transform $7.1 Trillion Money Market Industry with Digital Tokens

Key Points

  • Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon have created the ability for institutional investors to purchase tokenized money market funds, CNBC has learned.
  • Clients of BNY, the world’s largest custody bank, will be able to invest in money market funds whose ownership will be recorded on Goldman’s blockchain platform.

Via CNBC: Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York Mellon are set to announce that they’ve created the ability for institutional investors to purchase tokenized money market funds, CNBC has learned.

Clients of BNY, the world’s largest custody bank, will be able to invest in money market funds whose ownership will be recorded on Goldman’s blockchain platform, according to executives of the two firms.

The project has already signed up fund titans including BlackRock, Fidelity Investments and Federated Hermes, as well as the asset management arms of Goldman and BNY.

The Wall Street giants believe that tokenizing the $7.1 trillion money market industry is the next leap forward for digital assets after President Donald Trump last week signed a law marking the arrival of U.S.-regulated stablecoins. The GENIUS Act is expected to boost the popularity and use of stablecoins, which are typically pegged to the U.S. dollar, and JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America have said they are exploring their use in payments.

But unlike stablecoins, tokenized money market funds pay owners a yield, making it an attractive place for hedge funds, pensions and corporations to park their cash.

“We have created the ability for our clients to invest in tokenized money market share classes across a number of fund companies,” said Laide Majiyagbe, BNY’s global head of liquidity, financing and collateral. “The step of tokenizing is important, because today that will enable seamless and efficient transactions, without the frictions that happen in traditional markets.”

Money market funds are mutual funds that are typically invested in safer, short term securities including Treasuries, repo agreements or commercial paper. They are generally considered the most cash-like of investments that still offer a yield. Traditional money market funds can be liquidated within a day or two, though redeeming shares only happens during market hours.

Institutional and retail investors have rushed into the asset class in recent years, pouring roughly $2.5 trillion into them since the Federal Reserve began a rate-hiking cycle in 2022.

The banks view tokenized money market funds as setting the foundation for a future in which the assets are traded in a real-time, always-on digital ecosystem. Investors and corporations could lean on stablecoins for global payments and tokenized money market funds for cash management.

But tokenizing the asset class gives the funds new capabilities beyond speed and ease of use; the digitized funds could eventually be transferable between financial intermediaries without having to first liquidate funds into cash, according to BNY and Goldman.

That could bolster its use by the world’s largest financial players as collateral for a multitude of trades and margin requirements, said Mathew McDermott, Goldman’s global head of digital assets.

“The sheer scale of this market just offers a huge opportunity to create a lot more efficiency across the whole financial plumbing,” McDermott said. “That is what’s really powerful, because you’re creating utility in an instrument where it doesn’t exist today.”


7. U.S. Beef Prices …Protein Bull Market Adding to Supply/Demand Factors

Yahoo!Finance via SpilledCoffee


8. Meat Replacement Beyond Meat Stock -97%

Google


9. 46% of American Homes Being Purchased by 60+ Year Olds

In 2024, more US homebuyers were aged 70 and above (20% of buyers) than under 35 (around 15%). In fact, 46% of homes were purchased by those aged 60 and over. DB noted: “Over the long run, property is an asset that ultimately gets redistributed from one generation to the next. Right now, that handoff is being stalled by high interest rates and elevated home prices. At some point, either—or both—will have to adjust, or real wages for younger people will need to rise sharply. Eventually, the younger generation will own the homes currently held by the older generation. We just don’t yet know what the price will be.”

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


10. The Power of 1% Better Each Day

James Clear

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 22, 2025

1. Top 10 Largest Companies S&P at 30x P/E

Barrons- Tech’s strength has people talking about bubbles once again—and not without evidence. The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 trade for close to 30 times 12-month forward earnings, notes Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, above the 25 times the top 10 fetched during the dot-com bubble. “The difference between the IT bubble in the 1990s and the AI bubble today is that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than they were in the 1990s,” he writes

The bill also allows companies to expense all of their domestic R&D costs in the year they do the spending rather than amortizing it over a five-year period. That means companies get all of the tax benefit at one time, lowering their taxable income and improving cash flow, Pinder says—and they also get to apply the new rule to spending from 2022 to 2024.

And who does most of that spending? The Magnificent Seven stocks, which account for 47% of R&D by S&P 500 companies. “For them, the windfall should be somewhat immediate and provide more cash to reinvest in growth, or return to shareholders,” Pinder writes.  https://www.barrons.com/articles/donald-trump-ai-bubble-best-friend-soaring-bda738a8?mod=past_editions

Mega Cap Stock ETF New Highs

www.stockcharts.com


2. Goldman Non-Profit Tech Basket of Stocks Not Yet Back to 2021 Levels.

https://x.com/KevRGordon


3. 2010-2015 Big Returns But Below 1980’s and 90’s

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/the-double-digit-decades/


4. Palantir Expensive Beyond Rest of S&P Highfliers …This is Price to Sales Not  P/E

https://sherwood.news/markets/palantirs-valuation-just-how-insane-is-it/?utm_source=chartr&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=chartr_20250720


5. Crypto Economy Crossed $4 Trillion in Market Cap

https://www.howardlindzon.com/c/about


6. Bitcoin is 63% of Total Crypto Market Value.

On Monday morning, bitcoin briefly flew past a record $123,000 price point, before climbing down a little later in the week, as a handful of meme coins and altcoins started to steal the show. However, when it comes to the bigger (often messier) crypto picture, Bitcoin is still very much the main focus — accounting for a whopping 63% of the total crypto market’s value.

Unlike the early days, when 10,000 bitcoin would pick you up a couple of large pizzas if you were lucky, the asset has become seriously big — and somewhat seriously stable — as business, and institutional investors started taking notes in a major way.

Indeed, even bitcoin’s latest record surge is less to do with individuals looking to park their cash away from the governing and corporate powers that prop up the centralized financial system, and more closely related to some of those entities themselves getting into BTC. 

www.chartr.com


7. IBIT Bitcoin ETF 85% of Assets vs. GLD Gold ETF

https://x.com/KoyfinCharts


8. Open AI Lost 28% of Leadership Staff…Pro Sports Recruiting in AI

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/openai-loses-key-talent-analysis?sourceType=NEWSLETTER


9. YouTube Stand Alone Valuation $720 Billion

Analyst Laura Martin of Needham estimates that YouTube revenue was $58 billion in 2024, and will be $70 billion in 2025, with $30 billion of that coming from subscriptions. She projects that a stand-alone YouTube would have a market capitalization of $720 billion. Netflix has a market cap of $556 billion. Barrons By Adam Levine

https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-earnings-alphabet-youtube-658104fa?mod=past_editions


10. Farnam Street Blog Knowledge Project

The Knowledge Project [Outliers]

Charlie Munger once asked me: ‘How can someone give away fifty percent of profits and make billions more than if he’d kept it all?’ Before I could answer, he told me about Les Schwab, a tire shop owner who understood incentives better than almost anyone. 

What Schwab discovered will change how you think about business and life. 

Here are a few of his lessons: 

1. Win Win, The Math of Generosity: Les discovered that splitting profits 50/50 with store managers didn’t cut his wealth in half, it multiplied it. His reasoning was pure math: “If I share half the profits, I still have half. And if Frank makes more money, he’ll work harder to make the store successful. If the store is more successful, my half is worth more than my whole used to be.” You get rich by making others rich. 

2. All-In or All-Out: At 34, Les sold his house, borrowed against his life insurance, and scraped together $11,000 to buy a failing tire shop with no running water. He’d never changed a tire. His competitors had decades of experience. But Les had something they didn’t: no backup plan. That total commitment forced him to figure it out. One year later, he’d quintupled revenue. Half-measures guarantee half-results. 

3. High Agency: Everything is your job. Les bought his first tire shop having never fixed a flat in his life. On day one, a customer needs tires mounted. Les fumbles with hand tools on the cold concrete, making a complete mess until his employee arrives. He insisted on being taught, so the situation never repeated. Sometimes, the only qualification you need is the willingness to figure it out. 

4. Go Positive, Go First: Les instituted free flat repairs for anyone, customer or not. Competitors called him crazy. Why fix flats for people who bought tires elsewhere? But Les understood reciprocity: humans are biologically wired to return favors, even those that are unearned. Those free repairs created a loop, doing more marketing than marketing could ever do. Most businesses wait for the transaction before the service. Consistently going positive and going first is the most powerful force in the universe. 

5. Dark Hours: Every morning before dawn, teenage Les ran his paper route. Not biked, ran. For two months, he sprinted through dark streets on foot, saving enough to buy a bicycle. While his classmates slept, he earned. By senior year, Les owned all nine routes in town. When your competition sleeps, you can build your lead.

https://fs.blog/about/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 21, 2025

1. International Investors Will Stop Buying U.S. Treasuries—Not so much. Half the BRICS Members Didn’t Even Show Up for Recent Meeting.

Foreign capital flows. “Yesterday the US Treasury reported the largest inflow of foreign capital to that market (net purchases) since 2022, obliterating the narrative that foreign investors are fleeing Treasuries (or US equities) due to political risks.”

@bespokeinvest


2. Hedge Funds and Institutional Investors Underweight Mega-Cap Tech on This Rally.

https://www.spilledcoffee.co/p/investing-update-any-fuel-left-in?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F868a9e64-b166-48f1-89b0-d526c85edc7d_2186x1394.heic&open=false


3. ”Down Round IPO” Means Public Market Price is Below Private Market Peak….They are the New Normal.

https://pitchbook.com


4. Equal Weight S&P Hits All-Time Highs…Non-Tech Sectors Joining.


5. Utility Index Hits New-Highs.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Vanguard Internation REIT Fund New Highs

www.stockcharts.com


7. A Blip Higher in Goods Inflation


8. Fed Has Been Committed to Controlling Inflation Since 1970s


9. ICE Arrests Per Day Increasing But  Still Well Short of 2019 Levels.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ericfinnigan1


10. Americans Believe They Will Be Rich-Prof G Blog.

https://www.profgalloway.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 18, 2025

1. August/September Seasonality

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Over the last 35 years, August and September are the worst performing months of the year. Average performance has been mixed in August with DJIA and S&P 500 recording losses of 0.9% and 0.6% respectively while NASDAQ has eked out a meager 0.1% gain. September has been red across the board for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ – “Our July seasonal pattern chart shows this August-September market retreat actually tends to begin around mid-July” noted AlmanacTrader


2. All-Time Highs Not Bearish

SPX vs. ATHs. “Since 1990, the S&P 500 was higher a year after an all-time high 82.4% of the time and up a median return of a very impressive 13.5%.”

Ryan Detrick – Carson Group


3. Semiconductor Weight in S&P

https://www.topdowncharts.com


4. Small Cap Stocks Get in Green for 2025 …Still Below Highs.

www.stockcharts.com


5. FXI China Large Cap New Highs…+25% YTD

www.stockcharts.com


6. China Small Caps New Highs…+36% YTD

www.stockcharts.com


7. PKW Stock Buyback ETF Hits New Highs.

www.stockcharts.com


8. Multinationals Moving Out of China.


9. Where Inflation Hits

www.chartr.com


10. Admins vs. Doctors in Modern U.S.

https://x.com/robertlufkinmd/status/1945921745027740117