TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 07, 2025

1. Corporate Buybacks Reach Record in July

Bloomberg


2. AMD Did Not Make New Highs in this Rally Before Earnings Yesterday

StockCharts


3. SMCI -25% One-Year Chart


4. Number of Active ETF Launches Skyrockets…Active Management Moving Fully to ETF Model

Russell Investments


5. Data Centers vs. Office Construction

Data center construction spending in the US has more than doubled since ChatGPT’s launch. Source: Exponential View

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


6. 70+ Crypto ETFs Wait SEC Approval

Perplexity


7. How to Analyze a Balance Sheet

Brian Feroldi


8. Reduction in Mexican Remittance Payments from U.S.

Eric Finnegan


9. How Families Pay for College

Market Watch


10. Born Smart or Built Smart? The Truth About Intelligence and Effort

The Habits that Actually Help Make You Smarter-T. Alexander Puutio Ph.D.

Remember, whether any of the habits below nudge Spearman’s g one inch up or down is beside the point. What matters is that research has shown that they measurably improve performance. And if you’re serious about performing better, you need to get just as serious about the habits that drive it.

First, we know that learning isn’t a brute-force effort. It works best when we interleave what we’re learning, mixing subjects and testing ourselves regularly. It’s more effortful, yes, but much like lifting weights, that struggle is what makes the brain grow.

And sorry, podcast junkies—recent research by Hui and Godfroid showed that reading beats listening for retention, which isn’t all that surprising if you’ve followed the breadcrumbs of how ease in the process of learning often means a deficit in the results.

We also know that chunking helps us remember more, and that the memory palace method can turn almost anyone into a Roman orator, delivering entire speeches without a papyrus in sight. If these feats aren’t effective IQ in action, I don’t know what is.

To really hit home the brain-body duality, we also know that movement sharpens our cognition. Kim and colleagues weren’t exactly burying the lede in their 2011 article “Exercise training increases size of hippocampus and improves memory,” and numerous studies after theirs have shown how aerobic activity can improve executive function. In fact, in older adults, regular mobility is directly linked to better cognitive performance and lower risk of dementia.

If you’re surprised, remember that our brains didn’t evolve to operate in stillness. They evolved to think in motion, walking, navigating, reacting to the world around them. In fact, one of the most overlooked habits for improving cognitive performance is giving your brain the kind of environment it evolved for.

We didn’t get smart by sitting still or memorizing lists. We got smart by exploring the world, spotting patterns, making predictions, and adjusting course when we were wrong. That’s how our neural architecture was built by nature, through movement, curiosity, and conversation.

It’s no wonder then that brains perform better when they’re engaged in real-time experiential learning, in the company of others. People who stay mentally sharp into old age aren’t the ones who passively consume what they’re given; they’re the ones still asking questions about the world, expecting each answer to only beget another question.

What Really Matters About Intelligence

The truth about IQ is that the figure you got from WAIS or Stanford-Binet doesn’t define you, and it never did. What matters is how well you drive the mind you’ve got, and how seriously you take the road ahead.

So, if you want to maintain your edge, seek out novelty. Debate your ideas. Explain something out loud. Step into unfamiliar territory—and remember to sleep well before you do. The brain rewards exploration and punishes stagnation.

And above all, remember that your effective intelligence isn’t fixed. It’s as responsive and powerful when correctly tuned as it is fragile if neglected.

As with most things in life, you’re bound to fall to the level of your habits. And the truth about IQ is that we have much more agency over how it manifests in our lives than most ever dare to imagine.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/curiosity-code/202508/born-smart-or-built-smart-the-truth-about-intelligence-and-effort

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 06, 2025

1. Big Tech—Capex vs. Headcount.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/callie-cox-553a1a28


2. Top 10 S&P Stocks are 40% of Market Cap and 33% of Profits

Zach Goldberg Jefferies The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 40% of the market cap and 33% of the profits…Source: SocGen


3. Biotech Venture Investing Down 75%

Venture Capital


4. Insider Buying Lowest Since 2018

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Insiders at just 151 S&P 500 companies bought their own stocks last month, the fewest since at least 2018, according to data compiled by the Washington Service. And while July’s selling by corporate insiders slowed from June’s pace, purchases dropped even more, pushing the ratio of buying-to-selling to the lowest level in a year, the data shows.


5. Tokenization Market Value.

Charts tell stories. Hockey-stick charts tell big stories.

One of the biggest stories today is that tokenization — the idea of moving stocks, bonds, and other real-world assets over blockchains instead of traditional networks — is having a moment.

Not only has it catapulted from zero to a $25 billion market in four years. But suddenly some of the biggest players in finance are talking about it.

Think about that for a second. 

Stocks are a $117 trillion market. Bonds are a $140 trillion market. That’s $257 trillion up for grabs in the tokenization wars.

This is one chart you’ll want to keep your eye on.


6. Private Equity Stocks Performance vs. Their Funds Performance Last 3 Years.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dtjb/


7. Annual Percent of 1% Daily S&P Moves vs. History.

https://dorseywright.nasdaq.com


8. Demographics is Destiny….Single…China’s Fastest Growing Households.


9. Total U.S. Retirement Assets $43.4 Trillion….401ks $12.2 Trillion

https://www.theleadleft.com/middle-market-private-credit-7-28-2025/


10. 8 Phrases That Make You Sound Smarter.

https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-productive-leader/posts/?feedView=all

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 05, 2025

1. Stock Picking Long/Short Hedge Funds First Inflows in 10 Years.

https://www.ft.com/content/293d5329-2ff2-46e5-a6f9-4109d43fde2b


2. Real-Time Inflation 1.65%

https://truflation.com/marketplace/us-inflation-rate


3. What May Be Scaring The Fed? Level of Speculation?


4. Level of Speculation?  HOOD Assets Under Custody +100% Year Over Year.

From Howie Lindzon letter https://www.howardlindzon.com/


5. Prof G Newsletter—If the Magnificent 7 were a country, it would have the third-largest GDP, behind the U.S. and China. 

https://www.profgmarkets.com/subscribe


5. The Best Stock Market Days Occur During Major Declines.

NYT By Jeff Sommer

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/business/stock-market-best-worst-days-investing.html


6. DJT Stock Goes Full Crypto ….No Big Bounce Yet.

www.perplexity.com


7. More Money Raised by Crypto Treasury Stocks than IPOs in 2025


8. GOLD 4 Shots at New Highs…Not Yet.

www.stockcharts.com


9. The Downside of Betting Culture.

https://x.com/JohnArnoldFndtn


10. Technology/Venture Take on American Crime

Venture Investors Warm to Public-Safety and Law-Enforcement Tech

Startups are selling software to help solve crimes or free 911 dispatchers from nonemergency calls, among other things. This year they’ve raised $990 million, nearly double 2024’s total.

By Marc Vartabedian

A crime scene unit in Brooklyn. Venture investors are increasingly backing startups whose software can help in government services, including law enforcement. Photo: Kyle Mazza/Zuma Press

Venture capitalists have made a flurry of bets on public-safety and law-enforcement technology startups this year, the latest sign of a shifting appetite toward companies that rely on government revenue.

Venture firms, including industry leaders Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, have invested in tech ranging from artificial-intelligence voice chatbots that handle nonemergency 911 calls to analytics software that helps detectives solve cold cases. The deals propelled the sector’s overall U.S. funding haul to $990 million this year through July 9, nearly double the amount raised for all of last year, according to data firm Crunchbase.

Venture Capital

Venture Capital news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors.

Investors and entrepreneurs have long viewed plodding government sales cycles as incompatible with the hypergrowth many startups seek. But that’s changing. As AI supercharges the startups’ tech and lowers the cost of developing new products, founders say public-safety agencies are more eager and amenable to doing business with them.

Investors, in turn, are warming to young companies that rely on government sales. The recent success of defense-tech startups—many of them powered by AI—has demonstrated that startups with government-reliant revenue models can make it.

“The ‘Why now’ is AI,” said Nihal Mehta, co-founder and general partner of Eniac Ventures.

Eniac Ventures invested in San Francisco-based Hyper, which launched publicly this month and offers voice AI technology for nonemergency 911 calls. Voice AI has improved to the point where it can be used by police departments, Mehta said, which could save them money and free up human dispatchers to handle more critical calls.

“Historically this sector has had antiquated technology, and police departments were hard to sell into,” said David George, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz. “That has tipped relatively fast.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venture-investors-warm-to-public-safety-and-law-enforcement-tech-1fc1e21d

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 04, 2025

1. Valuations of AI Startups

Sherwood


2. A New Addition to Speculative Economy….56% Year Over Year Increase in Retail Investors Trading Futures

Barrons-During the second quarter, CME reported that more than 90,000 retail traders, a 56% year-over-year increase, traded futures for the first time. It was the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. This development suggests CME is creating a new class of customers, an incredible feat for any business but especially for an established exchange. Major bourses tend to rely on market volatility and well-established customers for growth.

Barrons


3. S&P Tech Sector Short-Term Overbought for 56 Trading Days

Bespoke


4. Capex at META Doubles in One-Year

Irrelevant Investor


5. Spotify Increased Free Cash Flow 100X in 2 Years


6. American Fast Food Managers Make More than European Developers

Michael A Arouet


7. Older Workers Set to Grow by 95% This Decade

Silver staffers aren’t leaving the office

Jacoblund/Getty Images

The promise of midday golf games and spending three hours drinking one cup of coffee at a McDonald’s is not enough to keep older Americans retired. As of last year, workers over the age of 75 are the fastest-growing group in the workforce.

Baby boomers (anyone in the 61–79 age range) are either refusing to retire or, increasingly, reentering the workforce. In some cases, they need to, as the cost of living increases and the Social Security eligibility age creeps higher. Additionally, only about 24% of boomers have defined pension benefits, and only half of private sector workers have access to employer 401(k) plans.

But some, especially white-collar workers, are choosing to spend their golden years in an office:

  • Industries like nuclear energy are desperate for seasoned experts as the country starts to bring plants back online.
  • Less labor-intensive jobs mean older people can work longer with more flexible schedules. Doing a desk job for extra money might be more attractive if you’re doing it from a nice office with central air.
  • Older Americans are also becoming entrepreneurs: As of 2023, nearly a third of new founders are 45+, and the percentage of businesses founded by people 55–64 is rising

Looking ahead…nearly 11 million older workers are employed right now, and that number is expected to jump by ~97% in the next decade, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.—MM


8. Ozempic and MAHA Hitting Snack Sales


9. American People Trust in Mainstream Media Trust Closing in on Single Digits But Still Above Congress

Bloomberg


10. Country #1 in Streaming

Abnormal Returns

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 01, 2025

1. Capital Expenditures on AI Already Passed Peak Telecom Highs.

PROF G MARKETS NEWSLETTER–Big Tech is pouring money into them. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google combined are on pace to spend roughly $340 billion on capex this year — more than the GDP of Finland.

The AI boom has become an infrastructure boom. Case in point: Capital expenditures on AI data centers are already more than the peak in telecom spending during the dot-com bubble and the buildout of 5G networksas a percentage of GDP.

https://www.profgmarkets.com/subscribe


2. XLV Healthcare ETF in Red 2025 -3.5%…One Year -12%

www.stockcharts.com


3. Trump Gives Pharma 60 Days to Cut Prices.

Axios-Tina Reed.

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/31/trump-us-drug-prices-deadline


4. Carvana Survived -90% Drawdown…Break Above 2021 Highs.


5. U.S. is Barely Growing Outside of AI Investments.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-the-pain-for-none-of-the-discount-why-small-caps-are-so-toxic-right-now-e84e0ba7?mod=home_ln


6. Heavily Shorted Stocks in Rare Period of Outperformance

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/shares-of-heavily-shorted-stocks-have-been-on-a-tear-lately-consider-this-before-buying-into-the-rally-40ff72dc?mod=home_lead


7. Follow Up to Yesterday’s Dollar Chart

https://twitter.com/themarketear?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor


8. How the U.N. is Funded.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/07/31/how-the-united-nations-is-funded-and-who-pays-the-most/


9. 2001 55+ Years Old Owned 50% of Assets vs. 2025 70%

https://www.apollo.com/aboutus/leadership-and-people/torsten-slok


10. 4 simple food rules to stay in shape and live longer, followed by a longevity doctor who studies diet and aging

By Kim Schewitz

  • Dr. Kurt Hong researches how what a person eats affects how they age.
  • Hong follows the Mediterranean diet, which has been deemed the healthiest eating plan for years.
  • His top tip is to eat plenty of fruits, vegetables, and wholegrains but not to overeat.

As an obesity doctor, a nutrition researcher, and a professor of medicine and aging, Kurt Hong has dedicated his life to understanding the link between our diets and longevity and helping patients avoid diseases such as type 2 diabetes and cancer.

But his career isn’t entirely selfless, he told Business Insider.

“I always joke with my wife that I also do this for selfish reasons,” Hong said, “I’m always looking for ways to stay young.”

To the 52-year-old father of three, age is just a number thanks to lifestyle choices we can make.

“Your body may tell you you’re 52 years old, but you can behave or you can feel like a 35-year-old,” he said. “And it can be the other way around as well.”

He added, “A lot of the age-related chronic diseases are directly related to what you eat and your weight.”

Hong’s approach to harnessing our diets to age well is simple and centered on the Mediterranean diet. It consists mainly of fresh produce, whole grains, healthy fats, and lean proteins and has been voted the healthiest way to eat eight years running by the US News and World Report.

Hong, who’s the chief medical officer of Lifeforce, a concierge preventive medicine company, and a professor at the University of Southern California, shared the four simple dietary rules he follows to stay healthy for as long as possible.

Eat your veggies

Hong’s No. 1 piece of advice is simply to eat your fruits and vegetables. He prioritizes getting enough plants, including whole grains, in his diet because they contain fiber.Diets high in fiber are associated with a lower risk of multiple types of cancer, lower cholesterol levels, a lower risk of cardiovascular disease, and a healthy gut microbiome — the community of microbes that live in the colon lining and are thought to affect overall health.

“The other part of it is that by getting your fruits and vegetables, you also get a lot of the vitamins,” Hong said.Plenty of evidence suggests that people who eat more plants are likely to be healthier than those who don’t. In a 2019 study published in the Journal of the American Heart Association, which followed more than 12,000 people for 29 years, those who reported eating about four to five servings of plants a day, and little to no processed or red meat, were 18 to 25% less likely to die prematurelythan those who relied more on meat and other animal products.

Eat a lot of fish

Hong’s main source of animal protein is fish, because it’s rich in vitamins, antioxidants, and protein. “I eat a lot of fish,” he said.Wild-caught salmon, albacore tuna, and halibut are his favorites, and he mostly bakes or poaches them.Fish contains omega-3 fatty acids, which are essential for brain health. A 2024 meta-analysis published in the journal Aging Clinical and Experimental Research found that eating fish was associated with a lower risk of cognitive impairment, dementia, and Alzheimer’s disease. The vitamins and minerals in fish, as well as omega-3, are thought to be brain-boosting, the authors said.

“Even if you don’t eat fish daily, try for just two, three times a week,” Hong said.

Don’t overeat

Hong also pays attention to how much he’s eating.

“You can eat all the right things, but if you still carry that extra weight, there’s still a level of systemic inflammation that’s contributing to your risk of chronic disease,” he said. “If your body’s burning 2,000 calories, but you’re eating 6,000 calories of fruits and vegetables, guess what? You’re still going to gain weight.”

Though it’s contested whether a person’s size is an indicator of their health, being overweight or obese is linked to a greater risk of several health conditions, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and certain types of cancer.To meet his nutritional goals — which are to eat enough protein, plants, and healthy fats, while maintaining a healthy weight — Hong eats higher-calorie foods in moderation.

For example, he may grab three hard-boiled eggs for breakfast, eat the higher-protein whites, and remove the higher-calorie yolks from two.

“It allows me to hit my calorie goals a little bit easier but still allows me to make sure that I get to my protein goal as well,” he said.

“So it’s the right volume and also the right type of food,” Hong said.

Meal prep to avoid ultra-processed foods

Ultra-processed foods are typically packaged and contain ingredients you wouldn’t find in a regular kitchen. They’re generally convenient and cheap, but eating lots of them has been linked to a greater risk of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, depression, and dying early from any cause.

Hong understands that it’s nearly impossible to eliminate ultra-processed foods entirely because they’re “everywhere.” But to eat fewer UPFs, he meal preps as much as possible.

“I do still have business meetings out where I have to grab dinners and other things. But you do the best you can,” he said.

For people who are time-strapped, he suggested trying out a meal delivery service.

“They’ll ship it to your home, where you have to put everything together within about 20, 30 minutes. That can take away the ultra-processed component,” he said.

https://www.businessinsider.com/simple-food-rules-stay-in-shape-live-longer-longevity-doctor-2025-7