Topley’s Top 10 – February 02, 2022

1. Energy Sector Outperformance vs. S&P in January Widest Ever

2. S&P Companies Have Record Cash and Low Debt Ratios

Bloomberg ByMichael P. Regan Yet help could come from somewhere else. Call it the “CFO put,” as in chief financial officer. Many American corporations, especially the big ones, are in dazzling financial health. S&P 500 companies had about $2.4 trillion in cash and short-term securities on their balance sheets at the end of the third quarter of 2021, compared with $1.6 trillion at the same time in 2019, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Google parent Alphabet Inc. alone had $142 billion going into its final quarter of 2021. Microsoft Corp. had $131 billion as of its most recent quarterly report; Amazon.com Inc. had $79 billion.

S&P 500 Cash and Equivalents Per Share

Companies also have surprisingly low debt in relation to how much income they are bringing in. The ratio of net debt to Ebitda—or yearly earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—was barely above 1 at the end of 2021 for S&P 500 companies, a record low, according to Bloomberg data dating from 1990. Compare that with a ratio of 4.25 in 2007, before the global financial crisis, and 3.88 in 1999, ahead of the collapse of the dot-com bubble.

S&P 500 Net-Debt-to-Ebitda Ratio

Market Turmoil Is Ultimate Test of What’s Real and What’s Not

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-26/is-the-stock-market-crashing-2022-stress-test-has-companies-crypto-scrambling?sref=GGda9y2L

3. American Possible Sanctions on Russia

NYT–American Sanctions on Russia seek to cutoff

  1. foreign lending
  2. sales of sovereign bonds
  3. technologies for critical services
  4. assets of elite citizens
  5. Possible “game over” sanctions on Russian banks…Foreign entities around world would stop doing business with Russian banks

By Michael Crowley and Edward Wong https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/politics/russia-sanctions-economy.html

www.stockcharts.com

4. 50 Day Change Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth

Tadas Viskanta

@abnormalreturns

https://buff.ly/3AOUIye

5. Is the Big Rotation Underway?

Callum Thomas-Great Rotation: A great rotation has already been underway for several years – out of old energy and financials and into tech. Big rotations like this can get unwound quickly/disruptively, certainly something to be mindful of.

Source: @t1alpha https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-sp500-chartstorm-23-january-2022-callum-thomas/?trk=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-hero-1-title_link&midToken=AQFjhnSMpoKQvw&fromEmail=fromEmail&ut=0Y1KTh8yEe3q81

6. Muni Bonds has Worse Month in 30 Years

MUB-Muni Bond ETF

www.stockcharts.com

7. Number of 10% Corrections in the Big 4 Since 2007

Capital Group

Corrections and results from select big tech companies from 2007 to 2021

Sources: Capital Group, Morningstar Direct. As of December 31, 2021. Corrections defined by share price decline of 10% or greater. Based on daily returns from 2007 to 2021.

8. The Share of Stock Trading by ETFs has Remained Constant

As a share of total US stock trading, ETF secondary trading has remained almost constant at 25% since 2011. This despite thousands of new products and trillions more in assets under management (AUM).

What about the primary market activity that occurs when ETF shares are created or redeemed by the associated participants? In this case, the underlying stocks are bought or sold, so there is a direct market impact.

Again, since 2011, as a share of total US stock trading, ETF primary market activity has barely budged. ETFs account for an insignificant 5% of this trading.

Myth-Busting: ETFs Are Eating the Worldby Nicolas Rabener of FactorResearch, https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/01/28/myth-busting-etfs-are-eating-the-world

9. Crypto-Top 20 Coins 2017 vs. Today….Only 6 on both Lists

PANTERA THEN & NOW :: 2017 RALLY VS. THIS RALLY

Bitcoin peaked in 2017 at $19,783.21. It’s amazing how much everything else has changed since then. This graphic has the top-20 coins at the peak of the 2017 bubble vs. today. Bitcoin is the only constant. Everything else has changed. Only six are in both lists (shown in gold). The majority of coins in the top-20 today didn’t even exist in 2017! They are shown in gray. Fourteen of the previous top-20 fell out – and fell a long way. The average position of those 14 is #90.

The Year Ahead In Crypto | Pantera (panteracapital.com)

10. People Who Use These 7 Key Rules in Conversations Have Very High Emotional Intelligence

Remember: Goals, attention, responses, design, emotions, nonverbal communication, and summations.

BY BILL MURPHY JR., WWW.BILLMURPHYJR.COM@BILLMURPHYJR

Getty Images

This is a story about communication, emotional intelligence, and how to get what you want in business and in life. If you find it valuable, I hope you’ll also download my free e-book, Improving Emotional Intelligence 2021, which you can find here.

It’s about seven key rules that make for better conversations, based on some compelling research and advice, and the ways that people with high emotional intelligence learn to use them in conversations that matter most.

These are compiled in such a way that you can use a mnemonic device — “GARDENS” — to remember it all: goals, attention, responses, design, emotions, nonverbal communication, and summations.

But let’s not get too hung up on these individual words yet; instead, we’ll go through all the rules below.

1. Goals: Think ahead of time about your ideal outcome.

Whether they admit it to themselves or not, everybody has a goal for the outcome of every conversation in which they engage.

  • It might be an important, strategic goal: “My goal is to convince this employee that taking on the new challenge I want her to tackle will be as good for her as it is for the company.”
  • It might be an emotional goal: “I want this prospective hire to walk away with a good feeling about us, even if he doesn’t match the requirements for the specific job we have open right now.” (You never know what the future brings!)
  • Or, it might be a purely defensive goal: “No matter what else happens in this conversation, I do not want to commit to any new obligations for this client.”

Of course, there might be multiple goals.

Let’s use a personal example: “I really want to go out to dinner tonight, but I also don’t want my partner to feel as if she has to say yes, if she would rather do so another night.”

Emotionally intelligent people understand how valuable it is to take a moment before almost any conversation and think through what your goals are, so that the conversational decisions you make don’t lead you away from them unintentionally.

Sometimes it’s helpful even to put things on the table, and communicate them explicitly: “Here’s what I’d like us to decide or do.”

Imagine if everyone in your life were that straightforward.

2. Attention: Stay focused, and also look like you’re focused.

We live in an addled time, a society of short attention spans.

Add to that the fact that we’ve just endured nearly two full years of constant distraction and danger, from the pandemic to the political climate, and I’m confident that entire academic careers will be made studying what we’ve all seen and done.

As Jeni Stolow, an assistant professor at Temple University’s College of Public Health, put it: “It’s this cognitive impairment that the whole world has been going through.

Thus, people with high emotional intelligence recognize two things when they begin conversations:

  • First, like everyone else on the planet, they need to make an extra effort to focus and pay attention now.
  • Second, also like everyone else on the planet, the people they are talking with likely need added reinforcement that suggests others are actually paying attention to them.

In practical terms, what does this mean? It means blocking out short bits of time for only the conversation you’re having. It means, physically removing other distractions — putting your phone face down on a desk, or shutting your laptop, for example.

It means not multitasking–and during video calls, making your environment appear conducive to one-on-one conversations.

Strive to be focused, but don’t make it look easy; make it obvious to the other people in your important conversations that they, and your discussion, are the only things you are paying attention to.

3. Responses: Think hard about how you look and sound to the other side.

In any exchange during any conversation, there are really only three classes of things you can say: the right thing, the wrong thing, or nothing.

Saying nothing is often awkward, and while sometimes you can use awkwardness to your tactical advantage, emotionally intelligent people understand the power of another option: mirroring back to the other person the things they’ve said to you.

Basically, any statement that begins with something like “So, it sounds as if you are saying …” or “Let me just clarify what I’ve heard, please …” or the like, will probably lead you to mirroring.

Mirroring also has to do with body language. In study after study, researchers have found that salespeople who mimic their customers’ speech and posture sell more products, and that people in negotiations who mirror the other side reach agreements five times as often.

However, an important caveat is to mirror without looking like you’re doing so intentionally, which makes you look fake, and undermines the whole thing. That can be hard, so perhaps the emphasis is to be both authentic and subtle.

“We tend to like people who imitate us, as long as we don’t notice that they’re doing it,” Chris Frith, an emeritus professor of neuropsychology at University College London, told The Wall Street Journal in a report on the phenomenon.

4. Design: Pay attention to the structure, timing, pacing, and length of the discussion.

Here’s a question that almost no two people will answer the same way: How long do you want this conversation to last?

Earlier this year, researchers published the results of a study of 932 one-on-one conversations, after which participants were asked if they thought the conversations had gone on too long, had not been long enough, or had been just right.

Result: Only about 2 percent of conversations ended around the time when both participants wanted them to.

Another study: Across all cultures, according to researchers, the average socially acceptable time for one person to talk in a conversation is roughly two seconds, while the average time between two participants speaking is just 200 milliseconds.

The practical result that emotionally intelligent people take from all of this is to talk a bit less, and to err on the side of brevity. Far better for others to leave most conversations with you feeling as if they’ve had the chance to have their say — and even wishing they’d had even more time to hear you out.

That’s accomplished by paying close attention to the structure and design of your conversations, almost as much as the substance.

5. Emotions: Be aware of and leverage the emotions on both sides.

Emotional intelligence for our purposes is the practiced awareness of how emotions affect your communications and efforts, coupled with strategies that you develop to leverage your emotions and other people’s emotions in order to help you achieve goals.

We should juxtapose this with what emotional intelligence does not mean.

For example, it does not mean stripping all emotion out of a situation, and it also doesn’t always mean striving for empathy and kindness. Those can be positive by-products, but they are not the key goals.

So, how about some examples? Let’s consider an emotion like excitement.

  • You might be able to leverage your excitement to convey to another person that they should also be excited about whatever it is that has you so eager.
  • Or, you might find that your excitement clouds your thinking and that you should be aware of it and tone it back.
  • Likewise, you might realize that excitement on the part of another person in a conversation leads you to reach an agreement more quickly, or simply to get along better.

Step one in these situations is to be aware of the emotion. Step two is to seek control over them. And step three is to think about how you can use them to help reach your ultimate conversational goal.

6. Nonverbal communication: Be aware of and leverage the communication that occurs in nonverbal dimensions.

Here’s an exercise. Next time you’re in a serious conversation and you have an important goal, imagine afterward that you had to write a screenplay about the discussion.

This seems daunting, so let me make it easier by letting you skip all the dialogue. Instead, imagine a script that contains only stage directions and descriptions. Example:

INT. CONFERENCE ROOM — DAY
JANE and JIM sit across from each other at a big table, which is cluttered with papers and leftover coffee cups from the last meeting. Jane rolls her eyes at Jim–she can’t believe they have to be here. Jim suddenly looks worried.

Jim softly begins to speak, but as he does, Jane’s cell phone buzzes. She seems to forget about him as she picks up the phone to see who has called …

OK, it’s been a long time since I was a screenwriter, but I hope you’ll see the point: A huge percentage of what we communicate comes from things other than the words we use. (One controversial study famously said that only 7 percent of communication is actually verbal.)

The facial expressions, the fact that Jane and Jim are holding this meeting in a cluttered room, the ease with which Jane is distracted from the conversation — all these things send messages that might or not be consistent with the verbal messages and goals each person wishes to communicate.

Emotionally intelligent people are highly aware of all of this, and they react and adjust accordingly.

7. Summations: Think hard about what you want the other side to remember.

I think there are two nearly universal things we can say about how good conversations end.

First, they involve some sort of summation and next step, or a promise for the future.

  • “We’re all set! We’ll start the project on Monday.”
  • “I don’t think we’ve found agreement here, but I’m happy to talk more tomorrow.”
  • “I had a really nice time. I hope I can call you again.”

Second, they involve a positive articulation of emotion — and most universally, an expression of gratitude.

In fact, an easy trick that the most emotionally intelligent people try to use is to find something to say thank you for toward the end of every conversation, so that the person you’re talking with remembers your gratitude.

Bonus tip on that one: Express gratefulness for something incontrovertible, rather than debatable.

  • In other words, say “Thank you for meeting with me today” or “Thank you for taking the time to talk.”
  • But avoid things like “Thank you for understanding” or “Thank you for coming around to my way of thinking.”

The first examples are gratitude for facts; the second examples are things that the other side might or might not agree with; thus, they can end the conversation with the other person thinking about the disagreement rather than the gratitude.

Don’t forget to break the rules

Pablo Picasso once said: “Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break them like an artist.”

That applies here as well. Even though we’ve organized these conversational rules to be memorable (remember: “GARDENS”), and even though it’s worth reflecting on them, it would be the very rare person with sufficient emotional intelligence to apply them all, all the time.

But, if you’re able remember at least some of them, you’ll likely be amazed at how your subconscious mind works to keep your conversations on track, and more likely to lead to the results you seek.

Let me know how it works for you. And don’t forget the free e-book: Improving Emotional Intelligence 2021, which you can find here.

https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/people-who-use7-these-key-rulesin-conversationshave-very-high-emotional-intelligence.html?cid=sf01003

Topley’s Top 10 – January 31, 2022

1. The Yield Curve is Flattening Quickly

Barrons-Ben Levisohn Follow

The yield curve is flattening quickly. On Friday, the two-year Treasury yield closed at 1.17%, while the 10-year closed at 1.779%, putting the gap between them at 0.61 of a percentage point. On Dec. 31, that gap was 1.069 points. Since 1955, the yield curve has flattened about 0.8 of a point a year during the first year of a tightening cycle, which would mean the curve would invert sometime in the first half of 2023, says Jim Reid, global head of credit strategy at Deutsche Bank. 

Recessions usually follow in eight to 19 months, which would put the next one in the middle of 2024. If the current market follows the historical path, the current upheaval, though painful, should simply mark a tantrum in risk markets that will pass. “The playbook is consistent with history,” he says.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/when-is-the-next-recession-coming-heres-how-to-time-it-51643417919?mod=past_editions


2. High Yield Bonds Calm During Stock Sell-Off

Bloomberg-Credit market’s reputation as a leading indicator has diminished at a time when even the Federal Reserve is having trouble anticipating where a highly volatile economy is heading. So if the economy experiences a significant slowdown, don’t look to corporate credit to send a signal, even if that part of of the debt market gets caught up in the fallout.

This month has been a good example of this changing dynamic. The U.S. stock market has suffered the worst start to a year since 2009 after waking up to the possibility that the Fed might tighten monetary policy much more than investors thought just a few months ago. And after the Fed’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference afterward, money market traders were pricing in almost five rate increases in 2022, with Bank of America Corp. economists led by Ethan Harris seeing the possibility for seven. The S&P 500 Index is down 7% this year and the Nasdaq Composite Index has plunged 12%. 

And yet, the corporate bond market has been relatively calm. Yes, yields have risen substantially along with U.S. Treasury securities, but what we’ve seen this month has not been a 2013-style “taper tantrum.” That is seen in the premium investors demand to compensate against the risk of default. That so-called spread on corporate bonds rated below investment-grade, or junk, have remained below levels reached late last year. Investment-grade rated companies have kicked off the year selling dollar-denominated bonds at a record pace, issuing 10% more such securities this month than a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-30/credit-traders-lack-edge-in-fed-s-new-regime?sref=GGda9y2L


3. Small Cap Value -6% vs. Small Cap Growth -19%

VBR Vanguard Small Cap Value vs. IWM Small Cap Growth YTD

www.yahoofinance.com


4. Warren Buffett Overcomes ARRK…Very 1999 Like Event.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jameseagle/ James Eagle


5. Break-Even for Crypto Miners 27,000

MARA $85 to $19.50

RIOT $46 to $13

www.stockcharts.com


6. China No Bounce.

China: The stock market selloff continues, …

Source: Daily Shot

… as Hong Kong and international investors pulled capital out.

Source: Daily Shot

 https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-january-28th-2022/


7. Doctors Most Trusted…Politicians Least Trusted

From Barry Ritholtz Blog

https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/eliminate-childhood-vaccinations/


8. Global Defense Spending

www.chartr.com


9. Housing Traditional Response to Surging Interest Rates.

John Burns Real Estate

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


10. Hard work vs. Long work

Seth Blog

Long work is what the lawyer who bills 14 hours a day filling in forms does.

Hard work is what the insightful litigator does when she synthesizes four disparate ideas and comes up with an argument that wins the case–in less than five minutes.

Long work has a storied history. Farmers, hunters, factory workers… Always there was long work required to succeed. For generations, there was a huge benefit that came to those with the stamina and fortitude to do long work.

Hard work is frightening. We shy away from hard work because inherent in hard work is risk. Hard work is hard because you might fail. You can’t fail at long work, you merely show up. You fail at hard work when you don’t make an emotional connection, or when you don’t solve the problem or when you hesitate.

I think it’s worth noting that long work often sets the stage for hard work. If you show up enough and practice enough and learn enough, it’s more likely you will find yourself in a position to do hard work.

It seems, though that no matter how much long work you do, you won’t produce the benefits of hard work unless you are willing to leap.

https://seths.blog/2011/05/hard-work-vs-long-work/

Topley’s Top 10 – January 27, 2022

1. Small Cap Top to Bottom Full -20% Correction

Russell 2000 $240 to $192 yesterday’s low.

www.stockcharts.com

2. Worse First 16 Days for S&P Ever

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-24/the-market-has-never-plunged-10-this-fast-to-start-a-year?srnd=premium-europe&sref=ZVajCYcV&sref=GGda9y2L

3. Stocks Average One 10% Correction Per Year

LPL Research

https://lplresearch.com/2022/01/26/all-you-wanted-to-know-about-stock-market-corrections/

4. BUZZ -Chat Room MEME Stock ETF…-35%

Fund Description

VanEck Social Sentiment ETF (BUZZ) seeks to track, as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the BUZZ NextGen AI US Sentiment Leaders Index (BUZZTR), which is intended to track the performance of the 75 large cap U.S. stocks which exhibit the highest degree of positive investor sentiment and bullish perception based on content aggregated from online sources including social media, news articles, blog posts and other alternative datasets. https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/social-sentiment-etf-buzz/

Gamestop -64% correction before bounce last couple days

AMC -72% from highs at low this week

www.stockcharts.com

5. Number of Big Insider Sales Had Record Year 2021

Jonathan Barird–A long-time investment maxim is that it pays to watch the stock transactions of company insiders, for they are in the best position to know the future earnings prospects of their company’s. Indeed, academic studies have confirmed that extremes of insider buying or selling are a useful leading indicator of share prices. Various services exist that provide such data to sophisticated investors. https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/

6. Bill Ackman Buys NFLX on Pullback Close to Covid Lows.

NFLX pulls back close to March 2020 lows.

www.stockcharts.com

Marketwatch By Jon Swartz

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman on Wednesday said his firm has purchased more than 3.1 million shares of Netflix Inc. NFLX, -1.83%, making it a top-20 holder. “The opportunity to acquire Netflix at an attractive valuation emerged when investors reacted negatively to the recent quarter’s subscriber growth and management’s short-term guidance. Netflix’s substantial stock price decline was further exacerbated by recent market volatility,” said Ackman, who is chief executive of Pershing Square Capital Management. He announced the investment on his Twitter account and in a press release. Netflix was not immediately available for comment.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-ackman-says-his-hedge-fund-just-bought-31-million-shares-of-netflix-2022-01-26?mod=home-page

7. Amazon to launch larger suburban Go stores

By Tonya Garcia

Amazon recently announced a high-tech clothing store in California

Larger-format Amazon Go stores are planned for suburban areas, with the first coming to Washington state

Amazon.com Inc. has announced plans to launch larger-format Go stores in suburban areas, starting with Mill Creek, Wash. in the coming months.

The Mill Creek Go store will cover 6,150 square feet, with the front area of the store spanning 3,240 square feet. The store will be equipped with Just Walk Out technology that allows customers to bypass a checkout line. Food and beverages, including beer and wine, will be available.

Amazon AMZN, 1.57% already has plans to open another Go store following the new format in the Los Angeles area.

The news comes shortly after Amazon announced plans for high-tech clothing store that will launch in Southern California.

And The Wall Street Journal reported last year on plans for larger stores that resemble department stores.

See: Kohl’s soars after takeover offer, but skeptical analysts question the retailer’s real-estate value

“We expect Prime member growth to continue with members spending more across additional categories,” wrote Stifel analysts in an earnings preview.

“Amazon continues to invest in developing and expanding Prime benefits, including Same-Day delivery expansion, video content and gaming. We expect Online Stores
sales growth to continue to decelerate in 4Q as the company compares against Prime Day in 4Q:20.”

Amazon will report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 3, according to the FactSet calendar.

Amazon stock has tumbled 15.8% over the past year while the S&P 500 index SPX, 1.63% has gained 13.2%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-to-launch-larger-suburban-go-stores-11643123478?mod=home-page

8. A Record 559 Newly Scripted TV Shows Hit Last Year

Can’t find something good to watch in the evenings? That’s on you, unfortunately.

According to the latest data from FX Networks, there have never been more new original scripted series, with 559 hitting the small screen last year across cable, streaming services and broadcast TV in the US.

Death by choice

In 2010, there were just 216 new original scripted series, meaning that in just the last decade, your options for viewing have almost tripled (presuming you can access them all, which admittedly is a different question altogether). Overwhelmed by options? You’re probably not alone.

9. Open Table Reservations 2019-2022

Dan Stratemeier

Managing Director

Equities, Event Driven Strategies

10. How to Optimize Your Default Decisions

Here are a few strategies I have found useful when trying to design for default in my life:

Simplicity. It is hard to focus on the signal when you’re constantly surrounded by noise. It is more difficult to eat healthy when your kitchen is filled with junk food. It is more difficult to focus on reading a blog post when you have 10 tabs open in your browser. It is more difficult to accomplish your most important task when you fall into the myth of multitasking. When in doubt, eliminate options.

Visual Cues. In the supermarket, placing items on shelves at eye level makes them more visual and more likely to be purchased. Outside of the supermarket, you can use visual cues like the Paper Clip Method or the Seinfeld Strategy to create an environment that visually nudges your actions in the right direction.

Opt-Out vs. Opt-In. There is a famous organ donation study that revealed how multiple European countries skyrocketed their organ donation rates: they required citizens to opt-out of donating rather than opt-in to donating. You can do something similar in your life by opting your future self into better habits ahead of time. For example, you could schedule your yoga session for next week while you are feeling motivated today. When your workout rolls around, you have to justify opting-out rather than motivating yourself to opt-in.

Designing for default comes down to a very simple premise: shift your environment so that the good behaviors are easier and the bad behaviors are harder.

Designed For You vs. Designed By You

Default choices are not inherently bad, but the entire world was not designed with your goals in mind. In fact, many companies have goals that directly compete with yours (a food company may want you to buy their bag of chips, while you want to lose weight). For this reason, you should be wary of accepting every default as if it is supposed to be the optimal choice.

I have found more success by living a life that I design rather than accepting the standard one that has been handed to me. Question everything. You need to alter, tweak, and shift your environment until it matches what you want out of life.

Yes, the world around you shapes your habits and choices, but there is something important to realize: someone had to shape that world in the first place. Now, that someone can be you.

If you want more practical ideas for breaking bad habits and creating good habits, check out my book Atomic Habits, which will show you how small changes in habits can lead to remarkable results.

https://jamesclear.com/design-default

Topley’s Top 10 – January 25, 2022

1. For Traders….Oversold Short-Term

Technicals still negative intermediete term but short-term  RSI 22 getting well oversold

QQQ-Short -term RSI 22

www.stockcharts.com


2. Plus….Nasdaq Investor Sentiment Lower than Covid

Dave Lutz Jones Trading–Mark Hulbert Noted Friday Nasdaq investor sentiment is worse now than it was in March 2020 – “That’s an extremely aggressive bearish posture.” (Bottom 1.8% of ALL days since 2000) – “Minus 67.2%, which means that the average Nasdaq-focused stock market timer is recommending that clients allocate two-thirds of their equity trading portfolios to going short”


3. History of Rough Starts for the Nasdaq

www.dorseywright.com


4. Crypto Universe Valuations Cut in Half.

@Charlie Bilello


5. This is a Big Year for Crypto Regulation

White House Is Set to Put Itself at Center of U.S. Crypto Policy Jennifer Epstein, Jenny Leonard & Allyson Versprille 04:00 AM IST, 21 Jan 2022 05:09 AM IST, 22 Jan 2022 Save (Bloomberg) — The Biden administration is preparing to release an initial government-wide strategy for digital assets as

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/white-house-is-set-to-put-itself-at-center-of-u-s-crypto-policy
Copyright © BloombergQuint


6. MSTR $1200 to $350…-36% YTD.

MSTR actually hit $2000 back in 2001

www.stockcharts.com


7. Fund Managers Allocation to Commodities the Highest Ever

Commodities: Fund managers are very long commodities.

Source: BofA Global Research

The Daily Shott


9. U.S. Political Party Preferences Shifted Greatly During 2021

BY JEFFREY M. JONES

  • Preferences shifted from nine-point Democratic advantage to five-point GOP edge
  • Average party preferences for all of 2021 similar to past years
  • Largest percentage of U.S. adults identify as political independents

WASHINGTON, D.C. — On average, Americans’ political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.

Line graph. Quarterly averages of U.S. party identification and leaning in 2021. In the first quarter of 2021, 49% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, while 40% identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. In the second quarter, 49% were Democrats or Democratic leaners, and 43% were Republicans and Republican leaners. In the third quarter, 45% were Democrats and Democratic leaners, and were 44% Republicans and Republican leaners. In the fourth quarter, 42% were Democrats and Democratic leaners, and 47% were Republicans and Republican leaners.

These results are based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled U.S. adults.

Gallup asks all Americans it interviews whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican or Democratic Party. The combined percentage of party identifiers and leaners gives a measure of the relative strength of the two parties politically.

Both the nine-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991.

  • The Democratic lead in the first quarter was the largest for the party since the fourth quarter of 2012, when Democrats also had a nine-point advantage. Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters between 1992 and 1999 and nearly continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009.
  • The GOP has held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991. The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s. Republicans had a larger advantage only in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. victory in the Persian Gulf War led by then-President George H.W. Bush.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferences-shifted-greatly-during-2021.aspx


10. Quotes on Courage

By Z. Hereford

When it comes to why I so enjoy reading the quotes of others, here is yet another quote to explain why:

“I quote others only the better to express myself.” Montaigne

Please enjoy these quotes on Courage.

The Quotes

It is better to live one day as a lion, than a thousand days as a lamb. Roman Proverb

You don’t develop courage by being happy in your relationships everyday. You develop it by surviving difficult times and challenging adversity. Epicurus

It is curious-curious that physical courage should be so common in the world, and moral courage so rare. Mark Twain

Everyday courage has few witnesses. But yours is no less noble because no drum beats for you and no crowds shout your name. Robert Louis Stevenson

Moral excellence comes about as a result of habit. We become just by doing just acts, temperate by doing temperate acts, brave by doing brave acts. Aristotle

Without courage, wisdom bears no fruit. Baltasar Gracian

He who loses wealth loses much; he who loses a friend loses more; but he that loses his courage loses all. Miguel de Cervantes

Clear thinking requires courage rather than intelligence. Thomas Szasz

We could never learn to be brave and patient if there were only joy in the world. Helen Keller

Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm. Winston Churchill

The greatest test of courage on the earth is to bear defeat without losing heart. R. G. Ingersoll

Courage is not defined by those who fought and did not fall, but by those who fought, fell and rose again. Anonymous

Take a chance! All life is a chance. The man who goes farthest is generally the one who is willing to do and dare. Dale Carnegie

Life shrinks and expands in proportion to one’s courage. Anais Nin

One man with courage makes a majority. Andrew Jackson

Courage is not the towering oak that sees storms come and go; it is the fragile blossom that opens in the snow. Alice M. Swaim

Courage is reckoned the greatest of all virtues; because, unless a man has that virtue, he has no security for preserving any other. Samuel Johnson

Sometimes even to live is an act of courage. Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Courage is the power to let go of the familiar. Raymond Lindquist

True courage is not the brutal force of vulgar heroes, but the firm resolve of virtue and reason. Alfred North Whitehead

There is no such thing as bravery; only degrees of fear. John Wainwright

Courage is the fear of being thought a coward. Horace Smith

Have the courage to live. Anyone can die. Robert Cody

We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light. Plato

Courage is the ladder on which all other virtues mount. Clare Booth Luce

The world is in a constant conspiracy against the brave. It’s the age-old struggle-the roar of the crowd on one side and the voice of your conscience on the other. Douglas MacArthur

It is only through labor and painful effort, by grim energy and resolute courage, that we move on to better things. Theodore Roosevelt

Be courageous! Have faith! Go forward! Thomas Alva Edison

He conquers who endures. Persius

Keep your fears to yourself but share your courage with others. Robert Louis Stevenson

Fear is the father of courage and the mother of safety. Henry H. Tweedy

It takes courage to grow up and turn out to be who you really are. e.e.cummings

The first of all qualities of a general is courage. David McCullough

Courage is nothing less than the power
To overcome danger, misfortune, fear, injustice,
While continuing to affirm inwardly
That life with all its sorrows is good;
That everything is meaningful even if in a sense
Beyond our understanding;

https://www.essentiallifeskills.net/quotesoncourage.html

Topley’s Top 10 – January 24, 2022

1. S&P and Nasdaq Close Below 200 Day Moving Averages.

S&P below 200 day but above October 2021 lows

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

Nasdaq closes well below 200 day and sinks below October 2021 lows

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

www.stockcharts.com

2. FANG Index Closes Below 200 Day…-13.5% from Highs

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

Long-Term Weekly Chart closes below 50day moving average for first time since March 2020

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

www.stockcharts.com

3. Nasdaq -1%+  4 Days in a Row…First Time Since Dot-Com Bust

Nasdaq 100’s Unrelenting Declines Ring a Dot-Com Bust Alarm Bell

Lu Wang(Bloomberg) — Bulls should be glad there were only four days this week instead of five.

To wit, the Nasdaq 100 just did something it hasn’t done since the aftermath of the internet bubble: fall more than 1% in every session of a week. It doesn’t count as a superlative because Monday was a holiday. But for investors caught up in the selloff, it felt like something shifted.

A full week of big down days hasn’t happened since the dot-com bubble burst, first in April 2000 and then in September 2001. Back then, the Nasdaq went on to fall another 28% before the market bottomed roughly a year later.

“If you just look at those two prior instances, right after 9/11 was a brutal market, while the other was the first leg down in the collapse of the tech bubble,” said George Pearkes, a strategist at Bespoke Investment Group. “It’s certainly ominous, isn’t it?”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-100-unrelenting-drops-ring-214018521.html

4. FANG Stocks Overlay with Central Banks Balance Sheets

Barrons-By

Randall W. Forsyth

This Fed Meeting Is Crucial. Future Rate Hikes Are Just the Start. https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-meeting-rate-hikes-51642784589?mod=past_editions

5. IPO ETF -41% from Highs.

IPO ETF 50 day thru 200 day to the downside on chart

This chart compares IPO ETF to S&P 500 index….The ratio has traded back to Covid 2020 bottom

6. XLE Energy ETF Break-Out.

Energy ETF opposite of broad markets…..50 day thru 200 day to upside…new highs

©1999-2022 StockCharts.com All Rights Reserved

www.stockcharts.com

7. If Bitcoin Gets No Bounce Early this Week….Next Technical Support $30,000

Error! Filename not specified.

1 / 3

BlackRock Plans ‘Blockchain and Tech’ ETF Amid Crypto Meltdown

 

BlackRock Plans ‘Blockchain and Tech’ ETF Amid Crypto Meltdown

Katie Greifeld

(Bloomberg) — BlackRock Inc. is stepping into the arena of cryptocurrency-flavored exchange-traded funds in the midst of a $1 trillion wipeout.

The iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF would invest in companies involved in the “development, innovation, and utilization of blockchain and crypto technologies,” according to a Friday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. If launched, it would be the first crypto-adjacent fund in the largest ETF issuer’s lineup.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-plans-blockchain-tech-etf-220719372.html

8. China Demographic Destruction Happening in Real Time

The GRID-Surveys reveal some of the reasons behind the decline. To begin with, fewer young people, particularly women, even want to get married. In a recent survey of urban Gen Zers conducted by a research institute affiliated with the Communist Youth League, 44 percent of women said they either didn’t want to get married or weren’t sure if they would. The men and women surveyed cited difficulty finding the right partner and a lack of time and energy as reasons for not wanting to marry.

Meanwhile, many married couples are choosing not to have kids for the same financial reasons that worry Liu. In a survey conducted by the China Youth Daily, millennials cited a lack of child care options and financial pressures as their top reasons for not having a second child.

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/01/12/what-happens-when-the-worlds-most-populous-country-starts-to-shrink/

Found at Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/01/weekend-reads-504/

9. The Top 10 and Bottom 10 States for Rearing Children

NY Times

ttps://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/20/realestate/the-best-place-to-raise-a-family.html

10. 6 reasons knowledge is true power!

I’m sure you’ve come across the famous saying ‘knowledge is power!’. Knowledge is so precious that it enriches you in diverse ways. Read my blog post to find 6 key ways you should take full advantage of this opportunity in life or else you’ll miss out on them!

While I strongly believe that ongoing learning is vital, I also find that knowledge is a true blessing and that it should be accessible easily. Learning can also be fun if you choose what to learn correctly and also find the methods that suit you best. So let’s dive into it.

1. Self-esteem

Your self-esteem, self-respect and self-confidence are all reinforced when you’re well-informed. In many life circumstances, being knowledgeable will give you additional power. It gives you the confidence you need!

2. Self-reliance

When you’re proficient, you have the freedom to make decisions on your own. You’re not dependent on others for guidance. You know that you can stand on your own feet.

3. Informed decisions

When you’ve got a good grasp, you’re more apt to take risks as well! You use your knowledge for your full benefit, so you can take calculated risks. Those with less understanding, are likely to be risk-aversive in life.

4. Learn from experts

While you learn from failures and use them to improve yourself, do learn from the experts as well! They’re the ones who are leaders in their respective fields. You’ll find out what works and what doesn’t, based on their experience and teachings.

5. Learn what’s proven

Find the best practices in your professional industry. Learn how to achieve what you truly want in your personal life. Follow hobby courses and much more… The point is that you can see what works best (from others) and save yourself precious time and money.

6. Success

Last but not least, with the knowledge you’re more likely to succeed. Success means different things to different people. However, set the right life goals for yourself, have an action plan to achieve them and learn the skills that will empower you!

Conclusion

Knowledge is indeed power… You cannot fool or take advantage of someone who is accomplished or has access to information. Make the most of learning experiences to make the most of your life! Do you have any tips to share? Please post a comment below. If you know anyone who could benefit from my blog post, please share it. Thank you!!

Photo/Image courtesy: Canva

https://tipsfromsharvi.com/2019/11/22/knowledge-true-power/