Daily Top Ten – February 20, 2017


1.Freddie Mac…2008 Implosion Leader is Up from the Ashes.

-Paid $4.5B dividend back to the treasury.
-4th quarter profit $4.85B
166% Rise Since Election

2.Global Dow Index Hits All-Time High….Proxy for International Markets.


50day thru 200day to upside in weekly chart.

3.Regional Banks…Are they Expensive After Massive Run?

Regional Bank Index trading at 1.37x book vs. 1.8- 20 year average.

4.High Yield Spreads Approaching Lows.

Good Look at Historical Spreads Leading up to Above Chart.

5.More Positives for Banks…

C&I Loans Averaging 11% Growth for the Last 5 Years.

C&I Loan Delinquencies at a 20 Year Low.


6.Mutual Fund Managers are Holding Record Low Cash….Ned Davis Cash to Assets Ratio.


7.Interesting Look at Market Pricing in Reagan Tax Cuts.

First, the market wastes no time in factoring in any to corporate taxes and according to Barclays calculations, corporate tax cuts get 85-90% priced in very short order. As an example, Barclays points out that the Reagan 1986 tax cuts showed that equities price in the benefits quickly. Perhaps too quickly.

There were some other notable similarities between the current tax-regime transition and 1986, namely “the oil collapse and growth cycle were also issues in 1986.” In any case, a harbinger of the current market rally driven by Trump tax cut hopes, “the S&P 500 rallied 40% pricing in the tax plan before it was really even implemented in July 1987.”
The S&P then infamously crashed in October of 1987, for a variety of reasons, one of which, Barclays suggests, was the rapid pricing in of the Reagan tax cuts. In fact, seen this way, the infamous Black Monday crash may have been – in addition to all the other noted catalysts – a very vivid example of “sell the news.”


8.Green Street Commercial Property Index +107% Since 2009…..26.7% Over 2008 Highs.

Green Street’s Commercial Property Price Index is a time series of unleveraged U.S. commercial property values that captures the prices at which commercial real estate transactions are currently being negotiated and contracted. Features that differentiate this index are its timeliness, its emphasis on high-quality properties, and its ability to capture changes in the aggregate value of the commercial property sector. Learn more.


9.The Reality of Globalized World in One Picture.

From Barry Ritholtz Blog

10.50 Things You Can Control Right Now

By Lori Deschene

“Why worry about things you can’t control when you can keep yourself busy controlling the things that depend on you?” ~Unknown

CNN reports that psychic businesses are thriving in this challenging economy, and the clientele has expanded to include more business professionals who are worried about their financial future.

According to Columbia Business School’s Professor Gita Johar, who studies consumer behavior, the greatest motivation for visiting a psychic is to feel a sense of control.

Sure, there are lots of things we can’t control: businesses may fold, stocks may plummet, relationships may end—the list is infinite, really. But wouldn’t we be far more effective if we focused on all things we can control instead; if we stopped worrying about the indefinite and started benefiting from the guaranteed?

Right now, you can control:

1. How many times you smile today.
2. How much effort you exert at work.
3. Your level of honesty.
4. How well you prepare.
5. How you act on your feelings.
6. How often you say “thank you.”
7. When you pull out your wallet for luxuries.
8. Whether or not you give someone the benefit of the doubt.
9. How you interpret situations.
10. Whether or not you compete with people around you.
11. How often you notice and appreciate small acts of kindness.
12. Whether you listen or wait to talk.
13. When you walk away from a conversation.
14. How nice you are to yourself in your head.
15. Whether you think positive or negative thoughts.
16. Whether or not you form expectations of people.
17. The type of food you eat.
18. When you answer someone’s question—or email or call.
19. How much time you spend worrying.
20. How many new things you try.
21. How much exercise you get.
22. How many times you swear in traffic.
23. Whether or not you plan for the weather.
24. How much time you spend trying to convince people you’re right.
25. How often you think about your past.
26. How many negative articles you read.
27. The attention you give to your loved ones when you see them.
28. How much you enjoy the things you have right now.
29. Whether or not you communicate something that’s on your mind.
30. How clean or uncluttered you keep your space.
31. What books you read.
32. How well you network at social events.
33. How deeply you breathe when you experience stress.
34. How many times you admit you don’t know something—and then learn something new.
35. How often you use your influence to help people instead of focusing on building your influence.
36. When you ask for help.
37. Which commitments you keep and cancel.
38. How many risks you take.
39. How creative/innovative you are in your thinking.
40. How clear you are when you explain your thoughts.
41. Whether you formulate a new plan or act on your existing one.
42. How much information you get before you make a decision.
43. How much information you share with people.
44. Whether you smoke or drink (unless you’re an alcoholic, in which case I am not qualified to offer you advice).
45. Whether or not you judge other people.
46. Whether you smell good or bad (unless you have some strange resistance to soap and deodorant).
47. How much of what other people say you believe.
48. How quickly you try again after you fall.
49. How many times you say “I love you.”
50. How much rest you get at night.

Odds are, some of these resonate with you more than others; so what? You can’t do fifty things at once anyway.

When I start fixating on something I can’t control, I pick just one of these to think about instead. Minor changes in thinking, I’ve found, lead to major changes in my reality. Do you have any to add to the list?

Photo by Steve Dean


Found at www.abnormalreturns.com