3. Top 10 Weighted Stocks Market Cap vs. Earnings Contribution
Callum Thomas This is a very interesting juxtaposition, and similar to a chart I shared recently, it shows the market cap weighting of the 10 largest stocks… vs the earnings contribution of the same group. Seems they’re not really pulling their weight.
7. Commercial real estate is poised to take a $800 billion hit from remote work-Quartz
Offices need to adjust to the new reality of remote and hybrid work—or risk bigger losses for their cities.Clarisa Diazand Gabriela Riccardi
This week, a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute looks at how remote and hybrid work are changing real estate in the world’s biggest urban centers. Their projection: In nine global cities, remote work is poised to wipe out up to $800 billion of office value by 2030. And that’s just the moderate projection.
Chartr.com Scaling up Prescriptions for Ozempic, which is still technically only approved as a treatment for type 2 diabetes, have soared in recent years as word continues to spread about the drug and its reported pound-shifting properties. Indeed, at the start of 2018, US Ozempic prescriptions weren’t even breaking the 100 mark — by 2020, there were over 100,000 a week. That figure has risen even higher since, making it the most prescribed diabetes drug in America by some distance, with doctors increasingly prescribing Ozempic “off-label” — that is for a different purpose from what the medication is explicitly intended for.
And Ozempic isn’t the only diabetes drug that’s seen a surge in demand. Novo-produced Rybelsushas also soared, as has Mounjaro, which is one of the fastest-rising diabetes treatments, and being tipped by some doctors as the most powerful on the market in terms of weight loss credentials. Developers Eli Lillyare looking to get FDA approval of the drug for that purpose by the end of 2023.
It’s been a little over a month since the “Debt Ceiling” was suspended. What has transpired since? A borrowing binge for the ages, with National Debt increasing by over $1 trillion.
To say that the government is spending money like a “drunken sailor” would be an insult to drunken sailors who at least a) were spending their own money and b) quit when they ran out of funds.
Not so for the US government, which continues to borrow from the future to spend more money today. In June, federal budget deficit rose to $2.25 trillion, its highest level since 17 months.
10. Do Hard Things if You Want an Easy Life-Darius Foroux
The other day my mom told me about a family member who had a flat tire on her bike. This relative doesn’t live an easy life.
She had a doctor’s appointment and when she pulled out her bike to go there, she discovered the flat. She doesn’t have a car. So she ended up walking to the doctor’s office. To make it worse, it also started to rain after a few minutes into her walk.
She barely made it. I thought, “Man, I’m lucky. I have an easy life.” But then I also thought, “I did a lot of hard things to get here.”
I remember the days of not having much. When I was 17, I had a full-time job during the entire summer at a call center. One day I was cycling to work and a massive downpour started about halfway through.
If I stopped to get shelter from the rain, I would’ve been late. I also couldn’t return to get the bus. I had to keep cycling.
Man, I still remember how I felt when I showed up at work, completely SOAKED in water, from my socks to my underwear. I sat down, at 9 AM and started making my calls.
During my breaks, I went to the bathroom and tried to dry my clothes piece by piece with the electric hand dryer. That whole day I sat in my chair with wet clothes, cursing at everything in my mind.
I was livid. I didn’t want a hard life like that.
A hard life versus doing hard things
Looking back, I’m grateful for experiences like that when I was in my teens and early twenties. It taught me that a hard life can be like a black hole that you can’t get out from.
My luck was that after the summer, I went to college. My parents, who never went to college, forced me to study. I really wanted to keep working because I thought that having my own money would make my life easy.
They knew better. Having a salary and nothing else is the road to a hard life. The path to an easier life is to get educated.
Getting educated is hard.
Learning new skills is hard.
Exercising regularly is hard.
Eating healthy is hard.
Sleeping at the same time every day is hard.
Seeing your friends having fun and going out is hard.
But the truth is that these things are only hard during the moment. Because what’s the alternative? I bet you have family members or friends who also have hard lives. What makes your life hard?
You might be doing hard things, but you do it because you don’t want to have a hard life.
Having the freedom to do what you want and being comfortable doesn’t come easy. We must work hard for that privilege every single day. And we will never reach an end state where our lives will always be easy.
It’s something we keep working for. Day in and day out. But it’s all worth it.
From Morningbrew Newsletter…There’s been no shortage of record-high temperatures around the globe recently, and since “space fan” isn’t something NASA is currently working on, other scientists are picking up the slack to cool buildings down.
Some options:
Going underground.Geothermal heat pumps can cool (and heat, because it will get cold again someday) your home by sending water through buried pipes to take advantage of the stable temperature of the ground beneath your backyard. They’ve got big advantages over traditional air conditioning and heating because they uses far less electricity and are cheaper in the long run. They’re typically more expensive upfront, but a 30% tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act could change that.
The whitest paint in the world. We’re talking paint so white it would share a sandwich with its dog. A team of scientists at Purdue University created a white paint that reflects 98% of sunlight (most white paints only reflect 80%–90%). It won’t be ready for commercial use for at least a year, but it promises to decrease the need for air conditioning inside a building by about 40%.
7. Average Maturity of Junk Bonds has Shrunk to the Lowest on Record
Advisor Perspectives Blog Executives must have hoped interest rates would swiftly return to manageable levels, but that looks increasingly improbable. In the meantime the average maturity of US and European junk bonds has shrunk to the lowest on record; while there isn’t much risky debt maturing this year, the refinancing challenges become more daunting thereafter, and businesses may decide to get ahead of the problem by restructuring debts sooner rather than later.
“You have major maturity walls coming up in 2024, ’25, and ’26,” Moelis & Co. co-founder Navid Mahmoodzadegan told investors last month. “A lot of those companies unfortunately aren’t going to be able to refinance through those maturities. And so I think there’s going to be a lot of not just bankruptcies, but a lot of balance sheet restructuring, recapitalization activity around many different names.”
The Corporate Bankruptcy Wave Will Get Even Uglierby Chris Bryant, 7/11/23
Almost everyone shrinks with old age. Many older adults have more difficulty gaining muscle than they did in their childhood and teenage years. And when it comes to maintaining that muscle, the phrase “use it or lose it” holds weight, says Michelle Gray, a physiologist and professor of exercise at the University of Arkansas.
“I work primarily with older adults who are trying to either build and/or maintain muscle throughout their life span, and really how that happens is you use it or lose it,” Gray says.
But she adds that not all hope is lost. “It really is the neurology, as well as the muscular system and the interactions between the two, that changes,” she says. “There’s a fair amount of evidence that says all of those things are still there and [that] we can retrain them.”
Several factors contribute to involuntary age-related muscle loss. The exact age people start to see muscle mass decline varies, Gray says, but many begin to see noticeable changes in their 30s. Studies suggest that muscle mass decreases by about 3 to 8 percent per decade after age 30 and at higher rates after age 60. Losing that strength may not only be frustrating in keeping up with daily activities but can also have significant health consequences.
“If you look at who’s shrinking, and how much they’re shrinking, it predicts really important stuff, like how long you’re going to live, how vulnerable you are to getting sick and having to be in the hospital, how likely you are to develop problems taking care of yourself,” says Stephanie Studenski, a geriatrician and professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh.
CHANGES IN MUSCLE TISSUE AND CELLS
Muscle is a dynamic tissue, Studenski explains. “Your whole life, there’s turnover. We’re growing new muscle and breaking down old muscle all the time,” she says.
There are three main types of muscle tissue: smooth muscle lines the gut wall and organs, except the heart; cardiac muscle is striated and covers the heart; and skeletal muscle, which can be found in the arms and legs, is also striated. Skeletal muscle is often the kind that’s assessed for sarcopenia, a type of muscular atrophy in which age-related loss of muscle and strength is accelerated. Sarcopenia was classified as a disease in 2016. Muscle tissue is made up of long, slim fibers, each one containing a single muscle cell. The cells produce specific proteins—actin and myosin—that cause muscles to contract and relax like rubber bands at different speeds. But as we age, there is a decline in the overall number of muscle cells—along with mitochondria, which are essential for producing and storing energy in muscle. Mutations build up over time in the cells, sometimes causing the production of defunct proteins, which makes those rubber bands overstretched or less snappy, Studenski says.
Faulty muscle proteins and mitochondria, along with some other changes with age, have been linked to the impairment of the connection between muscles and the nervous system, called the neuromuscular junction. This junction between motor nerves and muscle tissue is where brain signals are transmitted for muscle contraction and movement. Issues in communication between nerves and muscles can create weakness and a decline in muscle mass.
Changes in hormone levels are also linked to age-related muscle loss. The gradual decrease in testosterone we experience as we age, for example, can lead to a decrease in the production of muscle proteins. Poor diet and malnutrition also influence muscle loss—generally, appetite and food intake tend to decrease with age.
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND EXERCISE
Though natural aging plays a dominant role in sarcopenia, lack of physical activity also contributes to the loss of muscle mass. As people age, they tend to become less active, Gray says. “There are some disease processes that occur [that cause muscle loss], but in a healthy adult who is aging, it really is a decrease in physical activity throughout the life span which is driving that negative change in muscle mass,” she says.
Sedentary or less active lifestyles don’t always lead to muscle loss in older adults, but movement and exercise influence muscle size and strength. Just a short break in muscle use can cause a reduction in muscle mass, even in younger people.
Proper diet and physical activity can combat some age-related muscle loss, Gray says. Maintaining muscle comes down to continued movement. “Doesn’t matter if you garden or if you ride a bicycle like I do or if you go to the gym,” she says. “You can help maintain your muscle mass by continuing to do the things that you’re already doing.”
Research over the decades have shown that resistance training in older adults can help to increase muscle mass. Several types of resistance training and exercises can help older adults, but Gray recommends high-velocity resistance-training programs. High-velocity resistance training targets muscle power (lifting weight quickly) in addition to strength (lifting a heavier weight). Typically, high-velocity training is practiced among athletes, such as football players, but Gray says basic exercises, such as power chair stands, leg lifts and triceps extensions, can also help older adults perform daily life activities.
“I’m not saying that our older adults need to be linebackers. But think about walking very quickly. Once in a while, I catch my foot on the tile going down the hallway, and I stumble,” she says. “I do kind of trip, but I don’t fall. The reason I don’t fall is twofold: I’m fast enough to be able to get my foot out in front of me, and I’m strong enough to be able to hold my own body weight.” If one of those two things is lost, you’ll fall, she says.
Muscle loss is a common contributor to severe falls and accidents that lead to injury or physical disability in older adults. Low muscle mass from sarcopenia can impact how well individuals can cope with cancer treatment, surgeries and heart and lung problems, Studenski says. It’s why understanding the causes of muscle loss and keeping up with regular activity is important as we age, Gray says. Remember, bulk isn’t everything, she adds. Even if people don’t notice muscle mass gains through resistance training at first, “you actually get stronger long before your muscles get bigger,” Studenski says. “That exercise is doing something to the wiring to the nervous system connection to the muscle.”
Gray and Studenski say that focusing on reinforcing that “wiring” is more important than muscle size. The foundation is key to improving basic physical functions people need to take care of themselves independently, Gray says.
“Even if an older adult who I have trained doesn’t improve muscle mass, but they’re able to walk faster, climb stairs faster, get in and out of the car easier, go on hikes with their grandkids, they have an increase in quality of life,” Gray says. “That part is the most important to me.”
Marketwatch – The chart plots the HSNSI over about three months of U.S. market trading days. The orange line reflects sentiment in the weeks leading up to the top of the internet bubble, while the gray line reflects sentiment over the weeks prior to now. By Mark Hulbert
Blackrock Q1 earnings growth was flat to slightly negative, Refinitiv and Factset data show. That masks significant divergence: We see a common denominator between what’s driving market performance this year and earnings – the artificial intelligence (AI) buzz. S&P 500 earnings forecasts for the next 12 months have risen in recent months (dark orange line in the chart) along with the market rally driven by tech firms with the largest market capitalization. Stripping out those mega-cap tech stocks, forecasts are flat this year (yellow line). 2023 consensus estimates have been cut but remain well above our expectation. We expect Q2 data will be similar to Q1 as the reporting season kicks off this week, with a contraction hitting in the second half of 2023.
4. Chinese Banks Price to Book 20 Year Move Downwards
The Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese bank stocks is trading at 0.27 times book value, just a whisker away from late October’s record low. That compares with 0.9 times for an index of global peers. The China gauge was little changed on Tuesday after registering mild gains early in the trading session.
At least 7,500 pedestrians died last year in America, the highest figure recorded for more than 40 years, according to the latest data from the GHSA. Although only a preliminary result — with data so far collated from 49 states — the numbers confirm that the trend of rising pedestrian fatalities has yet to stop. Indeed, fatalities are up more than 80% compared with the safest year on record, 2009, when ~4,100 pedestrians lost their lives.
Why are pedestrians at risk? Federal reports identify a few factors, including more dangerous driving during the pandemic as well as a lack of awareness and enforcement of laws that are intended to keep pedestrians safe. One author, Angie Schmitt, who explores the phenomenon in a recent book, also blames the rise in larger, heavier vehicles, as well as a generally aging population — who can be more vulnerable to accidents — for the increase in pedestrian fatalities.
Town planners have also been in the firing line. New lanes of traffic are often added to ease congestion, but that ends up limiting space for pedestrians. One traffic engineer blames the rise of “stroads”. The word refers to those that are some combination of “streets” — lower speed avenues where people can shop, dine and walk — and “roads” — which are designed to get cars from A to B quickly and efficiently. Places where the two are combined, without proper infrastructure like crosswalks and lighting, are reportedly responsible for a majority of the fatalities. Www.chartr.com
9. Average Credit Card Interest Hits Record High 22.2%
10. Surprising Solutions for Overthinking-Psychology
Quick, practical solutions for people who self-sabotage by overthinking.
If you think in-depth, you probably find that your tendency to overthink is both a strength and a weakness.
You may desire to retain the benefits of thoughtfulness while eliminating the self-defeating aspects of overthinking.
Attempt one of these three techniques to achieve that. Choose whichever strategy naturally appeals to you.
1. Execute once, then optimize.
Try taking this approach: Whenever you do anything for the first time, don’t try to optimize it. Instead, adopt the approach that you will execute once, with basic thinking, then optimize your approach the second and subsequent times you do whatever it is.
For example, I recently decided to buy a choline supplement. I got bogged down in factors like which brand to buy, which dose, which form, where to buy it from, and when. By employing the execute once approach, I selected an acceptable option, aware that I could obsess about the best choice during my next purchase.
The benefits? You’ll make quicker decisions, and probably learn more through your experience than from delaying.
2. Put your thoughts in a suitcase.
Anxiety tries to be helpful by not allowing us to forget about potential threats. It nags us by knock, knock, knocking to remind us of our worries and insecurities.
For example, filling out child development questionnaires on my baby’s milestones was stressing me out. I wanted to tell the pediatrician I didn’t want to do them but was worried she would think I was being neglectful. In reality, I’m hypervigilant about milestones; I didn’t need the questionnaires to make me even more so.
If you try to stop having a thought, anxiety tends to just get louder. However, what can sometimes work is imagining putting that thought aside somewhere safe where you won’t forget about it. The imagery I like is to imagine putting my worries in a suitcase, and then carrying it but not interacting with it.
This technique can create sufficient psychological distance from thoughts, enabling me to make more skillful choices in my actions. In this case, there was no reason to expect the pediatrician, who has always been supportive, would think I was being neglectful—and in fact, she reacted supportively again when I broached this topic.
3. Reflect on the benefits of both impulsive and well-thought-out decisions.
Remember I said at the outset that overthinking is both a strength and a weakness? People who overthink tend to be very willing to engage in meta-cognition, that is, thinking about their thinking. You can use that to your advantage here.
Try thinking of examples of good decisions you and others have made. What actions have led to awesome outcomes for you and other people you know?
Next, reflect on whether these were always well-thought-out decisions. In Stress-Free Productivity, I wrote about how some of my best decisions weren’t very well thought through. For example, I’ve put less research into house purchases than into some minor decisions, and yet these house purchases have turned out to be some of my best decisions. I also put relatively minimal thought into choosing a Ph.D. advisor, and yet that worked out wonderfully.
Sometimes good decisions are the result of exhaustive research and accurate perceptions, but not always. Other factors, like serendipity, or meeting the right person at the right time, can be influential too.
When you see this diverse pattern, it can help free you up. Overthinking is not the sole path to success. Engaging in random conversations, acting on instinct or impulse, or exploring topics that trigger your curiosity, even when you should be focused elsewhere, can also yield positive outcomes.
Sometimes it’s enough to recognize that you currently don’t overthink every decision, and that can work out fine, and even well. You can begin to see yourself as someone who sometimes overthinks, but not always.
It’s important not to be ashamed of overthinking. I’m being genuine when I say that it’s both an important strength and a frustrating weakness. Acknowledge the benefits of thinking deeply, but also master skills to dial it back when that is advantageous. This will give you maximum flexibility, lower stress, and the best results.
How did this article change your view of overthinking? What strategy are you excited to try?
