1.Momentum Factor has Dominated 2017….MTUM Up Over Double the S&P YTD
But has the gap between the performance of the two indexes grown too big? MKM Partners technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky compared how big that gap is relative to its 200-day average, and found it’s at a level that often signals a peak in momentum. Sometimes it’s simply a pause—that was the case in 2005—but sometimes it can signal an impending peak, as it did in 2008. “Momentum names are stretched relative to the market,” Krinsky says. “But they can become more stretched.”
1.2017-The Least Volatile October Since 1928
And it is strange how quiet the market is. October, remember, is supposed to be the market’s most volatile month. Through Thursday, however, it was the least volatile October on record going back to 1928, according to Ben Bowler, global head of equity derivatives research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
The Most Volatile Month Not This Year.
1.ISM Hits a 14 Year High
But now, Kostin warns that this could be as good as it gets. He points to the ISM Manufacturing Index, which jumped to a 13-1/2-year high of 60.8 in September. Any reading above 50 signals growth.
“Although economic data are extremely strong now, an ISM reading above 60 typically marks the peak of growth and presages economic and equity deceleration,” he said. “Since 1980, the ISM has exceeded 60 in eight separate episodes; four of those lasted only one month.”
“Economic growth is the most important driver of corporate earnings and equity performance,” Kostin said.