Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – April 18, 2023

1. Huge Options Trading Around Regional Banks as they Report Earnings this Week.

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Regional bank share prices have stabilised since SVB’s collapse sparked a massive mid-March slide, but traders are buying record amounts of options tied to midsized lenders that had some of the highest volatility, according to Bloomberg data. Several banks that were badly hit in the recent volatility — including Citizens Financial, Charles Schwab and KeyBank — have seen options interest hit record levels, while many more are at multiyear highs. Pricing of the contracts suggests investors expect stock swings for some banks to be up to three times normal levels, according to FT


2. Artificial Intelligence Adoption Rates Across Sectors

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights.html


3. No Recession for Ferrari’s…RACE Stock Makes New Highs

RACE vs. Walmart….This chart compares Ferrari to Walmart….Right at Previous Highs


4. Update AI and Robot ETFs.

BOTZ rally off lows still below 200 week moving average

ROBO closes above 200 week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


5. MSTR Following Bitcoin…Doubles Off the Bottom

www.stockcharts.com


6. 2008-2020 Commodities -73%

Ratio of GSCI to S&P 500 Index, 1998-February 2021

Total Return, 2008 to 2020: Commodities have trailed stock and bond returns since 2008

CAIA Association  https://caia.org/blog/2021/04/23/worried-about-inflation-get-real


7. Vacation Home Demand Slowing Down…-52% from Pre-Pandemic

Vacation Home Slowdown REDFIN BLOG

Demand for vacation homes has plummeted, now 52% below pre-pandemic levels (Redfin).

What’s driving this? Higher interest rates, the lack of affordability, a decline in remote working, and the cooling rental market are all contributing…

https://www.redfin.com/blog/


8. Population of India Passed China…Female Labor-Force Participation and Urbanization Far Behind

WSJ By Shan Li and Liyan Qi

https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-china-population-economy-9dd7bf27?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


9. Even More Young Americans Are Unfit to Serve, a New Study Finds. Here’s Why.

U.S. Marines with Charlie Company, 1st Recruit Training Battalion, stand in formation before the motivational run at Marine Corps Recruit Depot San Diego, Sept. 15, 2022. (Grace J. Kindred/U.S. Marine Corps)

Military.com | By Thomas Novelly

A new study from the Pentagon shows that 77% of young Americans would not qualify for military service without a waiver due to being overweight, using drugs or having mental and physical health problems.

A slide detailing the findings from the Pentagon’s 2020 Qualified Military Available Study shared with Military.com shows a 6% increase from the latest 2017 Department of Defense research that showed 71% of Americans would be ineligible for service.

“When considering youth disqualified for one reason alone, the most prevalent disqualification rates are overweight (11%), drug and alcohol abuse (8%), and medical/physical health (7%),” the study, which examined Americans between the ages of 17 and 24, read. The study was conducted by the Pentagon’s office of personnel and readiness.

Read Next: The Army is Having No Issue Retaining Soldiers, Amid a Crisis Recruiting New Ones

Mental health accounted for 4% of disqualifications, while aptitude, conduct or being a dependent accounted for 1% each. Most youth, 44%, were disqualified for multiple reasons.

The updated figures paint a picture of what is currently plaguing military recruiters in many of the service branches, with a shrinking pool of potential service members available to them.

Maj. Charlie Dietz, a Department of Defense spokesman, confirmed that the study shared with Military.com was accurate and said all the services are being challenged by the current recruiting environment.

“There are many factors that we are navigating through, such as the fact that youth are more disconnected and disinterested compared to previous generations,” Dietz said. “The declining veteran population and shrinking military footprint has contributed to a market that is unfamiliar with military service resulting in an overreliance of military stereotypes.”

Lawmakers have been raising the alarm over the recruiting environment throughout the year. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee personnel panel, said during an April 27 hearing that he was worried the widespread ineligibility of many Americans will contribute to readiness problems.

“To put it bluntly, I am worried we are now in the early days of a long-term threat to the all-volunteer force. [There is] a small and declining number of Americans who are eligible and interested in military service,” Tillis said. He added that “every single metric tracking the military recruiting environment is going in the wrong direction.”

The Council for a Strong America, a nonprofit organization made up of retired military officers, law enforcement and business leaders that advocates for better nutrition and healthy lifestyles among kids, issued a press release expressing alarm at the findings.

The group called on lawmakers in Washington to take action so that younger generations would qualify for military service.

“The retired admirals and generals of Mission: Readiness recognize that the underlying causes of obesity cannot be solved by the efforts of the military alone,” the Council for a Strong America said in a statement. “With an increase in youth being ineligible for military service, it is more important than ever for policymakers, including state and local school boards, to promote healthy eating, increased access to fresh and nutritious foods, and physical activity for children from an early age.”

Dietz told Military.com that the Army and most of the service’s reserve components are in jeopardy of missing their FY2022 recruiting goals.

— Thomas Novelly can be reached at thomas.novelly@military.com. Follow him on Twitter @TomNovelly.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/09/28/new-pentagon-study-shows-77-of-young-americans-are-ineligible-military-service.html


10. What SuperAgers show us about longevity, cognitive health as we age

These ‘Betty Whites’ are showing us that with a healthy lifestyle, social connections and resilience, we can lower our risks of cognitive decline

By Richard Sima

April 13, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

Aging often comes with cognitive decline, but “SuperAgers” are showing us what is possible in our golden years.

“These are like the Betty Whites of the world,” Emily Rogalski said. She is a cognitive neuroscientist at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine and associate director of the Mesulam Center for Cognitive Neurology and Alzheimer’s Disease.

She was part of the research team that coined the term “SuperAgers” 15 years ago. It describes people older than 80 whose memory is as good as those 20 to 30 years younger, if not better.

What researchers are learning from SuperAgers and about dementia prevention could allow us to discover new protective factors in lifestyle, genetics and resilience for common changes that arise with aging.

“It’s invigorating to know that there are good trajectories of aging,” Rogalski said. “It’s possible to live long and live well.”

What a good aging trajectory may look like

There are three major trajectories of aging’s effects on our cognition, Rogalski said.

In the pathologic trajectory, cognition deteriorates faster than expected for the age, as in the case of dementia.

The reality is that the biggest risk factor for dementia is aging, said Mitchell Clionsky. Clionsky is a neuropsychiatrist who, with his wife, physician Emily Clionsky, wrote “Dementia Prevention: Using Your Head to Save Your Brain.”

2023 report from the Alzheimer’s Association estimates that 1 in 3 Americans older than 85 have Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia. More hopefully, research has uncovered many of the different risk factors that can be mitigated with lifestyle changes. A 2020 report from Lancet estimates that about 40 percent of dementias may be preventable.

In the normal or average trajectory, research shows, memory and cognitive abilities can begin to decline around your 30s or 40s. By the time most people are 80, on certain memory tests, they can remember about half as much as when they were 50, Rogalski said. Despite being less sharp, older people following this trajectory are still able to function — and thrive — in everyday life.

There is, however, a lot of individual variability.

This variability led to the discovery of the third trajectory: SuperAgers, who even past their 80s appeared to be at least as mentally acute in memory as those in their 50s and 60s.

It is not known what percent of the general population qualifies as SuperAgers, but they appear to be rare, Rogalski said. Even when researchers tried to screen only participants who believed they had good memory, less than 10 percent met the definition.

Over time, researchers followed those enrolled, examining their health, imaging their brains, recording their life histories and asking them to donate their brains to be studied after they die.

“The word I would use to describe this group is resilient,” Rogalski said. Many SuperAgers endured hardship, including extreme poverty, losing family at an early age or surviving Holocaust concentration camps, she said.

SuperAgers tend to have strong positive social relationships, which require a degree of adaptability when there are fewer peers of their age.

One SuperAger lives with his daughter and grandchildren, who do not know much about Frank Sinatra or Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Rogalski said. Instead, the SuperAger asks his grandchildren about their interests: Taylor Swift and Chance the Rapper.

“He laughs at this and finds joy in trying to keep up with what his grandkids are interested in instead of seeing that as too far of a reach or a burden,” Rogalski said. “And I think that that’s a really lovely outlook.”

What makes the brain of a SuperAger special

With age, the brain normally shrinks, especially in the cortex, which is the more evolutionarily recent part of the brain.

Not so with SuperAgers, whose brains appear more youthful in areas implicated in memory and executive abilities.

In the anterior cingulate cortex, a frontal brain region important for many cognitive functions, including attention and memory, SuperAgers had a thicker cortical layer compared with cognitively normal 80-plus-year-olds and even 50-year-olds. SuperAgers also had larger, healthier neurons in the entorhinal cortex, another brain area critical for memory, compared with both their older and 20-to-30-years-younger counterparts.

Intriguingly, SuperAgers also have an abundance of a special type of brain cell known as von Economo neurons, which are believed to be important for social affiliative behaviors. Studies suggest that von Economo neurons were four to five times denser in the anterior cingulate cortex of SuperAgers than in normal 80-year-olds, and even in individuals decades younger.

At the same time, SuperAger brains appear to have added protection against suspected biological hallmarks of Alzheimer’s, with less amyloid beta plaques, a cellular waste product, and neurofibrillary tangles.

Preventing dementia and preserving cognition

Becoming a SuperAger is probably partly because of the genetic lottery, but there are many lifestyle factors we can modify to lengthen our cognitive health span as we age.

“Stop being a dementia worrier, start being a prevention warrior,” Mitchell Clionsky said. “The active approach to this is what’s going to make the difference.”

And it is never too late to address the risk factors we can change, Emily Clionsky said. The average age of her patients who saw benefits was the mid-70s. “My oldest patient was over 100,” she said.

There is no one thing that will ensure healthy cognitive aging, but all these factors are interactive, researchers said. If we start chipping away at the dementia risks and pile on protective factors, we can reap positive effects. Here are some that may help:

·         Eat like a centenarianby incorporating fiber-rich foods and nuts into your diet.

·         Exercise your body. Most people know the importance of getting up and moving, yet don’t always follow through. “I tell them to examine their ‘but,’” Mitchell Clionsky said. Figure out what is getting in the way of exercising and ask “How do we break it down into something you will do,” he said.

·         Exercise your brain. The brain loves a challenge, so do activities that engage your noggin.

·         Stay connected. Social isolation and loneliness are risk factors for dementia, while social contact is protective.

·         Foster resilience. When something bad occurs, try to embrace the challenge. “What in this can be a learning moment? What in this can be a turning point?” Rogalski said.

SuperAgers cannot only help us age better but also reimagine what is possible in older age.

“I think there’s the possibility to set new expectations in aging and to revalue rather than devalue older adults,” Rogalski said.

Do you have a question about human behavior or neuroscience? Email BrainMatters@washpost.com and we may answer it in a future column.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/04/13/superagers-brain-cognition-dementia-longevity/

Topley’s Top 10 – April 13, 2023

1. IWM Small Cap Stocks….Holding Lows 3rd Time


2. FANG+ Stocks Run Up to Previous Highs Versus Small Cap.

This chart compares FANG stocks to small cap index…recaptured all of 2022 sell off


3. FANG+ Big Outperformance Versus S&P Value in Q1

This chart shows FANG+ stocks vs. RPV (S&P Value)….Still well below 2022 highs.

www.stockcharts.com


4. PPH Large Cap Pharma Rally Back Toward 2022 Highs.

Big pharma underperforming S&P year to date but bumping up against new highs


5. Two Household Restaurant Names…McDonalds and Starbucks.

MCD straight up thru all the noise new highs ….

Starbucks…50day back thru 200day to upside


6. BITO Bitcoins Kinda Of ETF…..Close to Double Off $9.5 Lows


7. XLF Financial Sector ETF …Holds 200 Week Moving Average During Bank Semi-Crisis

www.stockcharts.com

XLF ETF 25% Banks

https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/funds/the-financial-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlf


8. Have Personal Computers Peaked?

Chartr.com

Bad Apple

Worldwide shipments of Apple Macs fell to just 4.1 million units in the first quarter of 2023, according to IDC figures, as the wider PC market struggles after reaching near-10-year highs during the pandemic.

Other heavy hitters in the computer hardware market like HPLenovo and Dell also had a rough start to the year, with figures dropping 24%, 30% and 31%, respectively, confirming that the brief boom for the PC world now looks to be far behind us.

Shutting down
While the rise of working from home had many rushing out to order new laptops and computers to load Zoom on, the Q1 shipment figure is “noticeably lower” than pre-Covid levels, with analysts speculating that it’s not only a post-pandemic drop off, but also wider economic uncertainty that’s driving sales down.  The 56.9 million PC shipments figure recorded in Q1 is the second lowest in the last 10 years and represents a 29.3% fall from the same period in 2022.

www.chartr.com


9. Small Business Owners Poll…Inflation Problem Rolling Over…..Poor Sales Moving Up Off Bottom.

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/inflation-concerns-continue-to-ease


10. At 100 years old, I’m the ‘world’s oldest practicing doctor’—5 things I never do to live a long, happy life

Dr. Howard Tucker, Contributor  CNBC

When I was born in 1922, the average life expectancy in the U.S. was 58 years old for men, and 61 years old for women.

So as a 100-year-old practicing medical doctor and neurologist, patients often ask me for tips on how to stay healthy, happy and mentally sharp.

Good genes and a bit of luck can give you a head start, but here are some lifestyle rules I have lived by over the past century:

1. I don’t spend my days retired.

I’ve been working for more than 75 years, and was even named as the world’s oldest practicing doctor by the Guinness World Records. Sara, my wife of 65 years, also still practices psychoanalysis and psychiatry at age 89.

During the pandemic, I treated patients for five or six days a week. Then I switched to teaching medical residents for up to three days a week. (My hospital just shut down, so I’m currently doing medical legal review work while I look for another role.)

When I’m not working, I like spending time with my four children and 10 grandchildren, snowshoeing, and watching Cleveland sports.

If you’re blessed to have a career you enjoy and are still able to work, consider delaying retirement. Many people who retire and become inactive in their day-to-day routine are at an increased risk of cognitive decline.

2. I don’t let myself get out of shape.

Swimming, jogging, hiking and skiing well into my late-80s has kept me strong and healthy.

While I no longer ski and am not quite as active as I once was, I try to get in at least three miles on my treadmill at a brisk pace most days of the week. Watching Turner Classic Movies in the background helps curb some of the boredom.

Studies have found that something as simple as a 15-minute walk outside could lower your risk of premature death by almost 25%.

3. I don’t smoke.

When I was in high school in the 1930s, I told my father that I wanted to take up smoking. He said, “That’s alright with me. But why would anyone want to put anything but fresh air into his lungs when life is so short as it is?”

That immediately took the fun and excitement out of tobacco for me.

I remember attending medical meetings where doctors would, with a cigarette dangling from their mouths, tell patients to take up smoking because it would “curb your appetite and quiet your nerves.”

Today, we know that cigarette smoking leads to cancer, stroke, peripheral artery disease, coronary artery disease, and other pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases.

4. I don’t restrict myself.

Moderation allows us to live life to the fullest while also keeping us from going overboard and impacting our health in the long run.

I’ll have a martini and New York strip steak occasionally, but not every day. Sara is an excellent chef, and she’s helped me maintain a healthy and varied diet. We have salad with every meal, and enjoy greens like bok choy, broccoli and Brussels sprouts.

The real secret to longevity is that there are no secrets. But we live daily and die once, so we must make the most of the time we have.

5. I don’t let my knowledge go to waste.

Having practiced neurology for over seven decades, I’ve witnessed medicine evolve from lobotomies to the latest computerized imaging techniques.

I thoroughly enjoy teaching my medical residents and students, and I learn a great deal from them as well.

I have also been participating in upcoming documentary about my life. It’s been a joy to share stories from my long career with the next generation.

Dr. Howard Tucker is a neurologist from Cleveland, Ohio and was named the ”Oldest Practicing Doctor″ by Guinness World Records. He received his law degree and passed the Ohio Bar Exam in his late 60s, and served as chief of neurology of the Atlantic fleet during the Korean War. A feature documentary about Dr. Tucker is in the works. Follow him on TikTokInstagram and Facebook.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/11/i-am-100-years-old-and-the-worlds-oldest-practicing-doctor-what-i-never-do-to-live-a-long-happy-life.html

Topley’s Top 10 – April 12, 2023

1. Percentage Positive Returns by Month in Stock Market

Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


2. Growth Outperforms Value in Quarter One…”Growth” ETFs Huge Disparity in Sector Holdings

Barrons Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth (RPG), for example, currently has 28% in energy stocks and only 14% in tech, while iShares S&P 500 Growth (IVW) has 34% in tech and just 8% in energy. Vanguard Mega Cap Growth has more than 50% in tech and less than 1% in energy, while First Trust Large Cap Growth AlphaDEX (FTC) has 16% and 19% in the two sectors, respectively.  By Evie Liu

https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-pick-growth-stock-funds-fc843e01?mod=past_editions


3. Bond Volatility Much Higher than Stock Volatility


4. Share Buyback ETF No New Highs Yet.

PKW got to withing 4 points of previous highs


5. S&P Dividend Growers did Make the New Highs.

SDY underperforming 2023 but made new highs in beginning of year.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Small vs. Large Bank Exposures

JP Morgan Private Bank

https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/insights/investing/tmt/the-ripple-effects-of-the-bank-crisis?pid=&programName=20230331-NAM-ES-INV-Top%20Market%20Takeaways&utm_source=email-pb&utm_medium=Other-NA&utm_campaign=20230331TMT&utm_content=CTA&mkt_tok=MzkyLUhLQy04NzYAAAGK13yFshRFVbOpHiqBgT_eXh-rDEngj4KiJ72NpBsgNj2KEMNaewNVhU35JTUE-rFJy469wrg8Hmqi-HPdRgWLgSnVEVtyI3Adpq3GWYOyJmQTJA


7. China New IPO Policy …1 Firms Launched Monday with 96% Average Return

China’s first batch of shares under new IPO system surge in debut

Reuters

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, April 10 (Reuters) – Some shares among the first batch of stocks to list under China’s registration-based initial public offering (IPO) system more than tripled in their debut on Monday despite tepidness in the broader market.

The listing of the 10 companies on the main boards in Shanghai and Shenzhen marks the full roll-out of China’s new U.S.-style IPO mechanism, designed to make public share sales more market oriented.The system has already been adopted by Shanghai’s tech-focused STAR Market, Shenzhen’s start-up board ChiNext and the Beijing Stock Exchange for smaller companies.Shenzhen CECport Technologies Co (001287.SZ), an electronic components distributor based in the southern technology hub of Shenzhen, opened up 161% on Monday, and surged by as much as 239%, after it raised 2.25 billion yuan ($327.18 million).

Under the new rules, there is no daily trading limit for the first five trading days for shares that have listed after an IPO. Previously, new stocks listed on China’s main boards could jump as much as 44% and slump no more than 36% in their debut.

However, after those five days, stocks listed on the main boards will be subject to the regular 10% daily trading limit.  Dencare Chongqing Oral Care Co (001328.SZ), an oral products maker, opened up 98% and soared by as much as 214%. The other eight companies, including Shaanxi Energy Investment Co (001286.SZ) and Both Engineering Technology Co (601133.SS), rose by between 50% and 120%.Ade Chen, the general manager of asset manager Fund Investment in Guangzhou, said the stocks surged as “their valuation and debut prices are not expensive”.

CECport Technologies’s IPO was priced at 26.8 times its earnings, below the industry-wide valuation in 2021 of 35 times earnings, according to its prospectus.Dencare’s price-to-earnings ratio for the IPO was 36.8, versus a wider industry valuation of 51.6 in 2021, its prospectus said.

Both figures indicate the companies are undervalued relative to their peers.  “Afterwards, investors will focus more on companies’ growth potential and fundamentals,” Chen said.Overall, China’s stock benchmark index (.CSI300), slipped roughly 0.3% on Monday, as investors focused on China’s drills around the Taiwan Strait and awaited more data to gauge the strength of China’s economic recovery after it dropped restrictive COVID-19 policies.The market-oriented IPO system reform is expected to speed up listings and corporate fundraising, as Beijing seeks to revive an economy ravaged by COVID restrictions.

“The changes brought about by the IPO reform are all-round and fundamental, centred by information disclosure,” Yi Huiman, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said, according to a report from state media CCTV on Monday.

“The service function of the capital market to the real economy, especially technological innovation, has been greatly improved,” Yi said.

($1 = 6.8769 yuan)  https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/chinas-first-batch-bluechips-under-new-ipo-system-surge-debut-2023-04-10/


8. Commercial Real Estate and GDP Growth

After the housing bubble burst in 2008, construction of new homes declined more than 50%, and residential investment pulled GDP growth down by 1% for three years.

With commercial real estate construction being roughly 75% the size of residential investment, and fewer skyscrapers and shopping malls being built, the bursting CRE bubble could be a drag on GDP growth of around 0.75% over the coming three years. This should be compared with a 2% potential growth rate for the US economy (according to the CBO).

In other words, with the commercial real estate bubble bursting, we are likely to enter three years with low growth, similar to what we saw after the housing bubble burst in 2008. Put differently, once the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, interest rates will likely stay low for several years, and QE is likely to come back in 2024.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management


9. State Tax Revenue at Record Highs

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/recession-resilience-muni-bonds-can-help-shield-portfolios.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80963071&et_cid=80963071&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=D-btn-LP-6-A1cta-Advisor


10. Good News: Stress Is Going to Kill You

Psychology Today…But it’s going to take longer than ever.

THE BASICS

  • Stress is endemic to modern society.
  • People are convinced that stress is leading to their demise, and it’s true that stress can contribute to life-threatening illnesses.
  • Compared to 100 years ago, dying of stress-related illness in our 70s or 80s is a luxury.

Welcome to Stress on the Brain. In this blog, I’ll be writing about stress and its impacts on the way we think, the way we behave, and the way we get sick. When I first meet someone and the conversation turns to my area of research, the most common response I get is, “You should study me because I’m so stressed!” This response reflects our culture’s attitudes: Stress negatively affects the way we think. Stress negatively affects our health. Stress is going to kill us.

What I tell people in response is both good and bad news. The bad news? Stress is going to kill you. The good news? It’s probably going to take a long time.

What do I mean by this? Consider that 100 years ago, the average life expectancy in the U.S. was about 54 years. Compare that to our current life expectancy of 76 years (in 2021, the most recent year for which data are available).

What was killing people so young 100 years ago?

Among the top five causes of death in 1923 were infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and influenza. Today, by contrast, four of the top five causes of death are stress-related: heart disease, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and stroke. (I haven’t forgotten that over 1 million Americans recently died from another infectious disease, COVID-19, but the point remains that most of the maladies that kill us today are made worse by stress.)

Why is this good news? One hundred years ago, most deaths of American adults were due to infectious diseases occurring in their 50s. Today, by contrast, we have the luxury of dying of stress in our late 70s or even older.

Much of this difference is due to the massive successes of public health.

Clean drinking water. Centralized sanitation. Improvements in maternal and infant health programs. These programs have shifted the causes of death for most Americans from acute infections to chronic diseases. Such chronic diseases are strongly impacted by lifestyle factors such as diet and stress.

Take, for example, the number-one killer of adults, heart disease. The cardiovascular system, including the heart and blood vessels, is a particularly sensitive target of stress. The system includes a pump (the heart) and a sequence of elastic tubes (blood vessels), which are always working.

One of the primary stress responses is to increase blood flow to working muscles to outrun a predator on the proverbial savannah. Just like with any mechanical system, the cardiovascular system will eventually wear out with increased use, as when under chronic stress. Modern stress rarely necessitates running from a predator, so the increased wear and tear on our cardiovascular system is for naught. It just hastens the eventual breakdown of the system.

This doesn’t sound like good news, either. But hold on. Advances in cardiovascular medicine reduce the negative impact of the modern lifestyle on our hearts and blood vessels. The negative impact that stress can have on the cardiovascular system can be counteracted with improvements in diet, exercise, and medicine, prolonging the health of the system into our eighth or ninth decade. The impact of stress is still there, but our modern mitigation techniques allow us to maintain a healthy cardiovascular system for much longer.

If all this sounds too good to be true, you’re correct. I’m glossing over a great deal, including the threat of future pandemics, increased number of deaths of despair, and the widening income gap, all of which threaten to wipe out some of the increases in life expectancy we’ve seen over the last 100 years. My message is this: You can now survive stress for longer than ever in our species’ history. Yes, stress will kill you. Until then, stay vigilant to maintain and expand on the gains that we’ve made. Future generations may have the luxury of being stressed for even longer!

Tony W. Buchanan, Ph.D., is a professor of psychology and neuroscience at Saint Louis University.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/stress-on-the-brain/202304/good-news-stress-is-going-to-kill-you

Topley’s Top 10 – April 11, 2023

1. Money Flowing to International Stocks

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading In Asia, meanwhile, almost $16bn has flowed into Chinese equities funds, encouraged by Beijing’s reopening after years of stringent coronavirus restrictions. That reopening has also helped in Europe, which is more reliant than the US on exports to China. China accounted for almost half of the $34bn inflows into emerging markets more broadly, according to EPFR


2. History of Nasdaq Bank Index Selloffs

Dragomir Kolev Lessons from prior 20%+ bank sell-offs  Over the past 40 years, the NASDAQ Bank Index declined by 20% or more in five sell-offs, as shown below. The average length of those sell-offs was 516 days, and the average peak-to-trough price drop was 47%. The duration of the current sell-off is 447 days, with a 43% decline on April 6 from the 14 January 2022 peak. History suggests that volatility may last a few more months before we reach a bottom, but that bottom is not far from current trading levels. Historically, bank stock rallies have averaged 61% in the 12 months after the bottom is reached.

https:://www.linkedin.com/in/dragomir-kolev-64588120/


3. Triple B CMBS Spreads Over Treasuries

WSJ By Sam Goldfarb  As of Wednesday, the average extra yield, or spread, above U.S. Treasurys that investors were demanding to hold CMBS with a triple-B rating—the lowest broad investment-grade tier—was 9.52 percentage points, according to an ICE BofA index. That was up from 7.6 percentage points at the end of February and approaching the 10.8 percentage point level reached in March 2020, when local authorities were issuing stay-at-home orders. The average price of the bonds has dropped to around 75 cents on the dollar from roughly 89 cents a year ago.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-retreat-from-commercial-real-estate-bonds-f4bdf040


4. Credit: The Fed’s emergency facility balances continue to rise.

The emergency facility is designed to help banks meet short-term funding needs, and banks have shied away from using it in recent years.

https://dailyshotbrief.com/


5. Costco Retail Spending Indicator

Three Lower Highs in a Row.

www.stockcharts.com


6. Cumulative Layoffs Since October 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-layoff-tracker-credit-suisse-ubs-job-cuts/?sref=GGda9y2L


7. Lending Tree Credit Card Data

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/


8. New Survey Shows That Up To 47% Of U.S. Healthcare Workers Plan To Leave Their Positions By 2025

Jack Kelly  Forbes

The Covid-19 pandemic unleashed wave after wave of challenges and feelings of burnout for United States healthcare workers, and unless changes are made to the industry, nearly half plan to leave their current positions, according to a new report examining the work environment and industry’s future for clinicians.

Elsevier Health, a provider of information solutions for science, health and technology professionals, conducted its first “Clinician of the Future” global report. It revealed current pain points, predictions for the future and how the industry can come together to address gaps—including that 31% of clinicians globally, and 47% of U.S. healthcare workers, plan to leave their current role within the next two to three years.

In the new report from Elsevier Health, published two years after the Covid-19 pandemic began, thousands of doctors and nurses from across the globe revealed what is needed to fill gaps and future-proof today’s healthcare system. The comprehensive “Clinician of the Future” report was conducted in partnership with Ipsos and uncovered how undervalued doctors and nurses feel, as well as their call for urgent support, such as more skills training—especially in the effective use of health data and technology—preserving the patient-doctor relationship in a changing digital world and recruiting more healthcare professionals into the field. The multiphase research report not only understands where the healthcare system is following the Covid-19 pandemic, but where it needs to be in 10 years to ensure a future that both providers and patients deserve.

The “Clinician of the Future” report includes a quantitative global survey, qualitative interviews and roundtable discussions with nearly 3,000 practicing doctors and nurses around the world. The data helps shed light on the challenges impacting the profession today and predictions on what healthcare will look like in the next 10 years, according to those providing critical patient care

According to the report, 56% of respondents said that there has been growing empowerment amongst patients within the last 10 years, as people take charge of their health journeys. When referring to soft skills, 82% said that it’s important for them to exhibit active listening and empathy to the people they serve. Furthermore, nearly half of clinicians cite the allocated time they have with patients as an issue, as only 51% believe that the allotted time allows them to provide satisfactory care.

To ensure a positive shift moving into the future and to fill current gaps, clinicians highlight the following priority areas for greater support:

  • Clinicians predict that over the next 10 years “technology literacy” will become their most valuable capability, ranking higher than “clinical knowledge.” In fact, 56% of clinicians predict they will base most of their clinical decisions using tools that utilize artificial intelligence. However, 69% report being overwhelmed with the current volume of data and 69% predict the widespread use of digital health technologies to become an even more challenging burden in the future. As a result, 83% believe training needs to be overhauled so they can keep pace with technological advancements.
  • Clinicians predict a blended approach to healthcare with 63% saying most consultations between clinicians and patients will be remote and 49% saying most healthcare will be provided in a patient’s home instead of in a healthcare setting. While clinicians may save time and see more patients, thanks to telehealth, more than half of clinicians believe telehealth will negatively impact their ability to demonstrate empathy with patients they no longer see in person. As a result, clinicians are calling for guidance on when to use telehealth and how to transfer soft skills like empathy to the computer screen.
  • Clinicians are concerned about a global healthcare workforce shortage, with 74% predicting there will be a shortage of nurses and 68% predicting a shortage of doctors in 10 years’ time. This may be why global clinicians say a top support priority is increasing the number of healthcare workers in the coming decade. Clinicians require the support of larger, better-equipped teams and expanded multidisciplinary healthcare teams, such as data analysts, data security experts and scientists, as well as clinicians themselves.

“While we know that many nurses are leaving the profession due to burnout, we also know that the pandemic has inspired others to enter the field because of a strong desire for purposeful work,” said Marion Broome, Ruby F. Wilson professor of nursing at Duke University’s School of Nursing. “We must embrace this next wave of healthcare professionals and ensure we set them up for success. Our future as a society depends on it.”

Jack Kelly  https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/04/19/new-survey-shows-that-up-to-47-of-us-healthcare-workers-plan-to-leave-their-positions-by-2025/?sh=7e6191bf395b


9. Americans Losing Faith in Government to Solve Important Problems-Pew Research

https://www.pewresearch.com.org/politic/2023/04/07/in-divided-washington-americans-have-highly-negative-views-of-both-parties-leaders/


10. Newspaper Delivery Penetration of Population 1950—120%

WSJ When Boys, Not Phones, Delivered the News

Many homes took two papers, a morning and an evening one.

By Bob Greene

I’m no stamp collector, but there is a 3-cent first class stamp, issued in 1952, that I keep in a frame on a bookshelf. The Post Office Department authorized the stamp to honor what the nation considered an essential job.

The rectangular stamp, light purple in color, depicts houses in a typical small town. Against that backdrop is an illustration of a boy with a canvas bag slung over one shoulder. The stamp’s inscription reads: “In recognition of the important service rendered their communities and their nation by America’s newspaperboys.”

I look at that stamp every time there is another news story about the declining circulation of print papers, even as digital circulation grows. Newspaperboys (and girls) were a vital part of the American landscape in the decades before the internet and cable news delivered up-to-the-second bulletins onto people’s screens. Today, print papers mostly are delivered by adults in cars. But that purple stamp celebrated the era when the speediest way of getting news to front doors was a boy on a bike.

How ingrained in the nation’s life was that boy? One proud former newspaperboy—Dwight D. Eisenhower—issued a statement from the White House in 1954 honoring the carriers “not only because they serve our daily family needs, but because they symbolize so many cherished American ideals.”



When Eisenhower mentioned “daily family needs,” he wasn’t being hyperbolic. In 1950 the penetration of American households by newspapers—a statistic measuring in how many homes a newspaper was read each day—was just above 120%. How could the number exceed 100%? Many homes subscribed to two papers—a morning and an evening one.

 

PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Part of newspaperboys’ regular duties was to collect by hand, each week or each month, the subscription fees from every home on their route. During World War II, they raised money for the nation’s defense by selling War Bonds and War Stamps as they made their rounds. In appreciation, the U.S. Treasury commissioned a poster featuring a G.I. in combat gear shaking the hand of a newspaperboy. “Thanks Buddy!” the poster proclaimed. “Newspaper Boys have sold over 1¼ billion war savings stamps since Pearl Harbor.”

Some states bestowed annual awards on delivery boys or girls for exemplary work. In Ohio the award was considered so prestigious that it was presented by either the governor or the chief justice of the state supreme court. In 1954 the Bowling Green Sentinel-Tribune explained to its readers that “the newspaperboy completes the job started by the reporter in far-off Asia . . . the photographer in Africa . . . the correspondent in Alaska. . . . But the job is a long way from being finished until the newspaper is in your home.”

For some of us who love this business, there is still no sweeter sound than the solid thump of a rolled-up paper hitting the front stoop. The future may be digital, but to that hardworking newspaperboy on the 3-cent stamp, with gratitude and respect across all the years: Here’s to you.

Mr. Greene’s books include “Late Edition: A Love Story.”  https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-boys-not-phones-delivered-the-news-stamp-post-office-war-bonds-media-print-circulation-cfa4e159

 

Topley’s Top 10 – April 10, 2023

1. S&P 500 performance around the end of Fed hiking cycles – GS

Internet Bubble was only negative returns since the 1980s after Fed ends rate hike cycle


2. Q1 ETF Leaders All Technology


3. Micro-Cap Stocks Make New Lows as Large Cap Dominates Q1


4. IPO Market Chart to Watch

IPO ETF look for break above this red downtrend line on chart


 

 

5. 20-Year Treasury Bond 4th Run at New High

 www.stockcharts.com


6. Just a Reminder that 10-Year Treasury Yield Broke Downtrend Line Going Back to 1981

 www.stockcharts.com


7. U.S. Federal Government Spending vs. Inflation

@Charlie Bilello A look at federal government spending tells the story, with a 185% increase over the last 20 years, far greater than the overall rate of inflation (64%).


8. Lumber $360 Would Be New Lows….$1700 in May 2021

www.stockcharts.com


9. Billionaires Pouring Money into Fountain of Youth

EXCLUSIVE: First anti-aging pills to hit shelves in 2028, expert predicts – as Silicone Valley races to conquer death

Pills that can help a person reverse the effects of aging could be on the market in the next five years, according to an expert.

Sam Altman, 37, was revealed to have funded biotech startup Retro BioScience to the tune of $180million last month. He is the latest in a long line of Silicon Valley billionaires to throw their considerable wealth behind the science of aging.

Amazon’s Jeff Bezos is reported to have invested $3billion in life-extension startup Altos Labs. PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel invested in the Methuselah Foundation, which has the goal of making ’90 the new 50′.

 

Steele said: ‘With these billionaires, I’m sure some of them are doing it purely for personal gain — they’ve got all this money and they can’t possibly spend it in a single human lifetime.

‘But… if you’re a savvy investor, you can see that anti-aging medication is a huge business opportunity because the potential market is every living human.

‘I think it’s going to be the biggest revolution in medicine since the discovery of antibiotics — and as a savvy business person, you want to be on the leading edge of that revolution.’

While aging does not directly kill people, older people are at risk of many deadly diseases such as Alzheimer’s, heart disease and cancer.

Researchers might have found a way to teach someone’s body to refresh their old blood

Around 100,000 people die from age-related diseases every day, according to the World Health Organization.

Mr Steele says: ‘Aging is the greatest humanitarian challenge of all time.

There are ’20 to 30’ companies developing new drugs known as ‘senolytics’ which kill aging cells in the body, he explained.

In mice, these drugs cause elderly animals to become lively and healthy suddenly.

‘Many of these drugs are drugs that we already understand and use for different purposes, so we don’t have to develop new medications,’ Mr Steele said.

An example of a senolytic treatment is the combination of datasinib, used for chemotherapy, and quercetin, a molecule found in fruits and vegetables.

Used together, they remove aged ‘senescent’ cells responsible for many of the problems associated with aging.

Another potential general anti-aging drug is metformin. First approved in 1994 for type 2 diabetes, the drug has shown promise extending lifespans by improving blood vessel health.

‘Some of those companies are trying to develop new and more effective drugs that could do the same thing better,’ the author said.

‘That’s the sort of thing that’s very, very close to clinical realization. And I’d be shocked if in five years we don’t have some senolytics in the clinic.

‘It probably won’t be for aging at first. It’ll be for a specific disease – and maybe in 10 years, we’ll use it for aging.

‘These things are very, very near term.’

Jeff Bezos’s investment in Altos Labs — the biggest biotechnology company launch of all time — is a longer shot, Steele believes.

The firm specializes finding and developing cell therapies that can halt and eventually reverse the process of aging.

Mr Steele says: ‘This relies on a process called cellular reprogramming. It’s been shown to work on cells in a dish, and there’s some evidence it works in mice – but it’s an incredibly complicated piece of science.

‘It’s like science that seems to have fallen through a wormhole from the future – and even if it does work, do we have the biological applied understanding in the 2020s to turn that into a workable treatment?’

When Altos Labs was announced, Elon Musk quipped on Twitter about the Amazon mogul: ‘If it doesn’t work, he’s gonna sue death!’

 

With labs launching in America and Cambridge, the company is reputed to pay scientists poached from the world’s top universities salaries of up to a million dollars a year.

Steele says that, realistically, treatments we are likely to see in the near term will extend ‘healthspan’ by dealing with age-related diseases — delaying the onset of problems such as dementia.

Dr Cathy Slack, a biologist from the University of Aston, in the UK, agrees, telling DailyMail.com: ‘The goal is to increase the number of years of healthy lifespan rather than extending the late-life period of poor health.’

She said there are now ‘many’ published studies that show that genetic or environmental changes can extend a healthy lifespan.

She says: ‘Many of the biological systems that have been shown to play a role in healthy aging in these animal models are also present in humans and perform similar functions – so there is every reason to believe that these same processes are impacting on human aging.

‘The ultimate goal is really to try and manipulate these systems during human aging to maintain health and quality of life.’

Dr Slack believes that successful treatments are likely to be a combination of drugs and lifestyle changes – and look holistically at all the diseases that afflict people in later life.

She says: ‘Historically, we have viewed the various diseases associated with older age as distinct entities – so research tends to focus on each one rather than looking at them more holistically together as a direct consequence of biological aging.

‘We already know that there are lifestyle changes that will help to maintain multiple aspects of heath during aging.

‘Exercise, for example. But supplementation with drugs that target multiple physiological parameters of aging could have a huge impact on quality of life for older adults.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11844303/First-anti-aging-pills-hit-shelves-2028-expert-predicts.html


10. The Daily Stoic Are You Showing Them How To Be A Student?

“Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever.”

—Mahatma Gandhi

If you think back to when you were a kid, what appeared to you to be the best part about being an adult? No more school. Our parents didn’t have to carry around heavy books or do homework. We never saw them applying to get into this school or that one. It’s sort of sad that, by and large, we show our kids that education stops. That while adulthood is isn’t always fun, one perk is that you no longer have to go to class. That graduation is a final destination.

It doesn’t have to be this way. There’s the story of Epictetus teaching one day when a student’s arrival caused a commotion in the back of the room. Who was it? Hadrian, the emperor. Hadrian’s example clearly had an impact on his successor and adopted grandson, Marcus Aurelius. Late in his reign, a friend spotted Marcus heading out, carrying a stack of books. “Where are you going?” he asked. Marcus was on his way to a lecture on Stoicism, he said, for “learning is a good thing, even for one who is growing old. I am now on my way to Sextus the philosopher to learn what I do not yet know.

If you want your kids to value learning, if you want them to never stop furthering the education you’ve been investing so much time and money and care and worry into, then we have to show them what an adult committed to lifelong learning actually looks like. We have to show them we have not graduated, we are not on summer break, we have not arrived at the final destination of education.

Wisdom, they must learn, is an endless pursuit.

 https://dailystoic.com