Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – November 13, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Retail Investors Not Chasing Rally

Equities: Retail investors don’t seem to be chasing the current rally.

Source: Vanda Research

2. Clean-Energy Sub-Sector Trailing S&P by -45% in 2023

By Avi Salzman-Barrons

https://www.barrons.com/articles/sunrun-enphase-nextera-clean-energy-stocks-collapse-87ce2a49?mod=past_editions

3. Bitcoin: 52-Week High Two Years After a Record High-Bespoke

Even for a volatile asset class, it has been quite a week for crypto-related assets. With a gain of nearly 8% for the week, Bitcoin rallied to 52-week highs and crossed above 35K, 36K, and 37K in the process. Year to date, the largest cryptocurrency is up over 125%, but looking at the chart below, all of the year’s gains have been confined to a handful of trading days in January, March, June, and now.

Ethereum had an even bigger week, rallying by over 14.5% and nearly doubling the gain in Bitcoin. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum was trading just shy of its YTD high from back in April.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bitcoin-52-week-high-two-years-after-a-record-high

4. Novo Nordisk Passes LVMH as Largest Company in Europe.

Novo Nordisk vs. LVMH chart

5. EV Car Makers Turn to Discounts.

WSJ By Sean McLain

https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ev-makers-turn-to-discounts-to-combat-waning-demand-3aa77535

6. Average Borrowing Rate for Used Cars 3.85% to 7.3%

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Auto research firm Cox Automotive – the owner of the closely followed Manheim price index – published new data last week for October that shows wholesale used-vehicle prices continue to slide and have reached the lowest levels since April 2021. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index stood at 209.4 in October, down 2.3% from September. The index is down 4% from a year ago. Sliding demand comes as Bankrate data shows the average borrowing rates for used cars have surged from around 3.85% in Feb. 2022 to 7.3% this month

7. Autonomous Vehicles and Profitability

CHARTR Predictions of when fully autonomous cars make their way into mainstream adoption have, historically, been way too optimistic. Elon Musk believes that Tesla is “very close” to delivering on level 4 or 5 self-driving, although it’s worth noting that similar comments have been made by Tesla’s head honcho in years gone by. What is easy to predict: getting to level 5 is going to continue requiring an enormous amount of money.

Are we there yet? Data from Crunchbase reveals that the amount of venture capital funding being poured into AVs has fallen sharply from its peak, and the willingness of industry incumbents to invest billions into projects with uncertain timelines also seems to be fading.

Cruise, for example, reportedly only has 9 months of cash left, having burned through more than $8 billion since 2017, and this week a senior executive at Honda, which has also invested heavily into the company, said it had no plans to invest more. Waymo cut 100 jobs earlier this year, Ford-backed Argo AI has already shut down, and the pivot to electric vehicles is proving enough of an expense for many manufacturers, without the added complication of building full autonomy. Even as AI hype grows by the day, the road to full self-driving suddenly seems a little longer. www.chartr.com

8. Housing Market Affordability

From Barry Ritholtz Blog Taking into account mortgage rates, local house prices, and local incomes, buying a home in markets like L.A. and Miami today is more expensive than it was in 1981

Source: @NewsLambert

9. A Record High Share of U.S. Consumers are Planning International Vacation

Torston Slok Apollo Group

10. Tiny Thought(s)-Farnam Street Blog

  1. Anyone can do it once. The best do it consistently.
    Anyone can order a healthy meal once. Anyone can get up early to workout once. Anyone can save more than they earn for a month. Anyone can take their partner on a date once. Anyone can write a page. Anyone can focus on one thing for an hour.
    Most people can’t do it consistently because they want instant gratification. They want to see the results … right now. Just because the results aren’t immediately visible, doesn’t mean they are not accumulating. Ordinary moments compound over weeks and months into extraordinary results.
    Consistently boring days make for extraordinary decades.
  2. There are a lot of things you don’t control.
    You don’t get to pick your parents.
    You don’t get to pick the country you are born in.
    You don’t get to pick your given talent.
    You don’t get to pick the test.
    You don’t control where you start, but you can change where you go.
    Integrity is a choice.
    Kindness is a choice.
    Hard work is a choice.
    Preparation is a choice.
    Consistency is a choice.
    Your attitude is a choice.
    Your response is a choice.
    The people you hang around are a choice.
    Changing your trajectory is a choice.
  3. The person who focuses on fewer things goes further than the person distracted by many.
    https://fs.blog

Topley’s Top 10 – November 09, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Stocks Vs. Treasuries

Full disclosure …I am not familiar with this chart.

2. AAA Corporate Bond Yield Back to Average Trend Line

3. Follow-up on XLE Energy ETF….Close Below 200-Day

4. Short-Interest in Big 7 Nada

5. Factor Performance

Jack Ablin-Cresset

Are Equity Investors Jumping the Gun? | Cresset Capital

6. The U.S. stock market is absolutely massive…Dominant U.S. Economy

Source: TKer

https://ritholtz.com/2023/11/10-wednesday-am-reads-354/

7. Volatility VIX  Collapses Back to Lows

www.stockcharts.com

8. Growth of Net Worth in U.S.

9. WSJ-Turning Empty Offices Into Apartments Is Getting Even Harder

Only 3,575 apartment units were converted from office space last year. The already fraught process now faces even more challenges.  By Konrad Putzier and Will Parker

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/turning-empty-offices-into-apartments-is-getting-even-harder-b6659020?mod=itp_wsj

10. Critics-The Daily Stoic Blog

Nobody wants to be criticized. It doesn’t feel good when people judge what you’ve done. We want the right people to like us, we want all people to like us. We want to be accepted, appreciated, and celebrated. So we try to be like other people, like the people that everyone likes.

But in the end, does this effort pay off? No, it doesn’t. You work hard to preempt criticism, to appeal to the trends, to make people like you and then what happens? They still criticize you. Somebody finds something to find fault with you about. Think of how Marcus Aurelius was savaged by critics in his own time, just as he is today by many academics and philosophers, written off by many historians.

Imagine if he had tried instead to conform to their expectations, to fit more clearly in the box they wanted him to be. Imagine if he’d tried to win the mob’s favor or the respect of future generations by conquest or dazzling deed. Imagine if he had written Meditations for an audience instead of from a far more personal and vulnerable place.

It doesn’t matter what you do, the criticism is always going to be there. So you might as well do what you think ought to be done. You might as well do what seems meaningful and important and fulfilling and right to you. People are going to say what they’re going to say, haters will find a way to hate. In the meantime, just be true to yourself, be true to the mission you have, fight for the respect (and praise) of yourself, not the mob, not the future.

That’s hard enough to win anyway.  https://dailystoic.com

Topley’s Top 10 – November 08, 2023

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1. XBI Biotech Index Gets a 10% Bounce Off 5-Year Lows.

XBI has a negative 5-year return.

2. Crypto-Six Weeks of Inflows.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw the sixth consecutive week of inflows.

https://dailyshotbrief.com/

3. Gasoline Prices Fall for 7th Straight Week

Advisors Perspectives by Jennifer Nash, 11/7/23

4. Total Returns Since Jan 2022

Irrelevant Investor Blog https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/

5. Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time Highs.

6. Percentage of Credit Card Debt vs. Money in Bank at 20-Year Low

7. Credit Card Delinquency Rate Rising.

Courtenay Brown—Axios

8. Credit Card and Holiday Season Indicator…Amazon Right at Next Resistance Level from 2022

9. Weed may do way more damage to your heart than we thought-Business Insider

Smoking weed may have similar health consequences as cigarettes, and new research suggests cannabis use can be bad for your heart. Jamie Grill/Getty Images

  • Two new studies suggests marijuana use can be harmful for heart health. 
  • Using marijuana may increase risk of issues like heart attack or stroke in frequent or older users. 
  • More research is needed, but users should be aware of the risks, experts say. 

Smoking pot, taking edibles, or unwinding with a cannabis-infused beverage have become increasing popular as more states have eased up on laws restricting recreational use.  But a marijuana habit isn’t risk-free, new research suggests.

Regular marijuana use is linked to significantly higher risk of cardiovascular issues like heart attack or stroke, according to a pair of preliminary studies to be presented at the American Heart Association (AHA) 2023 Scientific Sessions.  The findings suggest that marijuana may be more concerning for health than people suspect, particularly for frequent consumers and those with underlying health conditions.

Using marijuana every day may increase risk of heart failure  In one study, researchers at Medstar Health in Baltimore looked at data from 156,999 people, who were initially free from heart failure, over four years of follow up to compare health outcomes with self-reported marijuana use.  They found that people who used marijuana daily had a 34% higher risk of developing heart failure than people who never used marijuana.

The study defined marijuana use as any consumption that was not prescribed for a health condition.  The findings suggest that more evidence on how marijuana affects health could help consumers and health professionals make more informed decisions, according to Dr. Yakubu Bene-Alhasan, lead author of the study and a physician at Medstar  “Our results should encourage more researchers to study the use of marijuana to better understand its health implications, especially on cardiovascular risk,” Bene-Alhasan said in a the press release.

The long-term health effects of cannabis aren’t yet clear  Along with evidence that smoking cannabis has similar risks as cigarette use, the findings warrant more caution around cannabis use and heart health, according to Robert L. Page II, professor of clinical pharmacy at the University of Colorado and chair of the volunteer writing group for the 2020 American Heart Association Scientific Statement: Medical Marijuana, Recreational Cannabis, and Cardiovascular Health.  Page, who was not involved with either study, said that inhaling cannabis smoke increases blood concentrations of carbon monoxide, a toxic gas, as well as tar, both of which are linked to serious heart problems.

“Together with the results of these two research studies, the cardiovascular risks of cannabis use are becoming clearer and should be carefully considered and monitored by health care professionals and the public,” he said.Previous evidence also suggests that while other forms of cannabis use — like consuming edibles — may avoid some exposure to the toxins involves in smoking, they can still have negative effects on heart health. That’s because THC, the active ingredient in marijuana that gets you high, may be harmful to the heart.

https://www.insider.com/marijuana-heart-disease-attack-stroke-risk-weed-2023-11?_gl=1*1btw1cc*_ga*MTcwNTA0MjU4My4xNjYxMzU3MTY0*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTY5OTM5NTY3OC43MS4xLjE2OTkzOTU2OTAuNDguMC4w

10. Keep Forgetting Things? Neuroscience Connects This Simple Habit to 17 Percent Better Memory Outcomes

Forgetting things. It’s the worst.

BY BILL MURPHY JR., FOUNDER OF UNDERSTANDABLY AND CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC.@BILLMURPHYJR

·         “Hello, neighbor!” (We’ve lived on the same street for years and I can never remember your name!)

·         “Yes, dear, I put that important document in a very safe place.” (If only I could recall where.)

·         “I was smart! I put an Apple AirTag on my keychain.” (Now, has anybody seen my phone so I can track it?)

We’ve all been there. And if there’s one common, existential fear I hear among successful business owners and other leaders when talk turns serious, it’s the worry that forgetting things like this might foretell even more memory loss when we get older.

If that sounds familiar, you’ll likely be interested in a new study from the NYU Grossman School of Medicine that found a correlation between a specific but common type of diet during middle age, and a remarkable 17 percent better memory outcomes decades later.

Writing in the journal Alzheimer’s & Dementia, researchers said they tracked data related to 5,116 women in the NYU Women’s Health Study over 30 years, focusing on answers the women provided about their diets between 1985 and 1991.

The women were an average of 49 years old at the time, and the researchers were focused on how closely their diets adhered to the DASH diet, short for Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, hypertension being the more formal medical term for high blood pressure.

Short version, according to Yu Chen, a professor in the Department of Population Health at NYU and senior author of the study:

With more than 30 years’ follow-up, we found that the stronger the adherence to a DASH diet in midlife, the less likely women are to report cognitive issues much later in life.

So, what exactly is the DASH diet? As diets go, it’s fairly simple and tasty. According to the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, which is a U.S. government resource, it includes:

·         Eating vegetables, fruits, and whole grains

·         Including fat-free or low-fat dairy products, fish, poultry, beans, nuts, and vegetable oils

·         Limiting foods that are high in saturated fat, such as fatty meats, full-fat dairy products, and tropical oils such as coconut, palm kernel, and palm oils 

·         Limiting sugar-sweetened beverages and sweets

Not too difficult, right? In fact, we’ve seen a lot of interesting research recently, suggesting things people can do that correlate with better memory, either in the near-term or more systemically as they get older. Some are easier than others:

·         Avoiding a sleep debt, wearing a sleep mask at night, and possibly even sleeping on your side

·         Drinking significant amounts of coffee, or possibly tea

·         Eating specific foods, some of which would go right in hand with the DASH diet, such as porcini mushrooms, all sorts of other vegetables, and even dark chocolate and cinnamon

·         Improving your work environment, specifically the lighting (“Dim lights are producing dimwits,” one study author said.)

·         Engaging in brain activities like pleasure reading, having detailed hobbies that require you to process and recall information, and doing crosswords and other brain games.

Oh, and my favorite, backed by at least one study whose authors say they have no idea why it works–but that I’ve actually used myself to surprising effect: walking backward to trigger memory recall.   

Look, the human brain is fascinating, and as I write in my free e-book Neuroscience: 13 Ways to Understand and Train Your Brain for Life, there’s no subject that seems to attract more universal interest than the unexpected ways in which it works.

Maintaining and improving memory are at the top of the list for so many of us — and doubly so if the behaviors we’re talking about are simple, tasty, and frankly things you might consider doing anyway.

Like this column? Sign up to subscribe to email alerts and you’ll never miss a post.

https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/keep-forgetting-things-neuroscience-says-this-simple-habit-connects-to-17-percent-better-memory-outcomes.html?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=freeform

Topley’s Top 10 – November 07, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Just Amazon AWS Revenue was Higher than Revenue of 461 Companies in S&P 500

@Charlie Bilello Amazon’s AWS revenue over the last 12 months ($88 billion) was higher than the revenue of 461 companies in the S&P 500. From $3 billion to $88 billion in less than 10 years (>40% annualized growth).

Apple has bought back $604 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 492 companies in the S&P 500.

2. XLE Energy ETF Interesting Chart

XLE failed at 2 attempts to make new highs..then twice bounced off 200-day

3. Berskire Record Cash….Sold $5B in Stocks.

4. Dow Jones Railroads Holding Lows

5. Last Weeks Rally Led by Weakest Previous Performers.

Bespoke The rally this week has been broad based, but the best performing stocks have been the names that did the worst in the 10 days prior.  Below we’ve broken the large-cap Russell 1,000 into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on stock performance during the market’s decline from 10/17 to 10/27 (last Friday).  As shown, the decile of the worst performing stocks during the 10/17-10/27 pullback is averaging the strongest gains during this week’s rally.

Looking at individual stocks, below are the 30 best performing names this week in the Russell 1,000.  At the top of the list is Roku (ROKU), which is up more than 50%!  Another eight stocks are up more than 25% this week, including names like DoorDash (DASH), DraftKings (DKNG), Pinterest (PINS), Paramount (PARA), and Palantir (PLTR).  Other noteworthy stocks up big this week include Wayfair (W), Block (SQ), Avis (CAR), Warner Bros. (WBD), Coinbase (COIN), TopBuild (BLD), and even Peloton (PTON).

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/boomerang-bounce

6. ARKK Rallied +19% Last Week

7. Regioanl Banks KRE +13% Last Week

8. S&P Returns Around Election Years.

Capital Group-Patient investors who stay the course have often been rewarded. Since 1932, stocks have gained an average of 11.3% in the 12 months following the conclusion of the primaries (using May 31 as a proxy) compared to just 5.8% in similar periods of non-election years.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/pdf/shareholder/MFGEBR-121-632421.pdf?sfid=1988901890&cid=81074122&et_cid=81074122&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=btn-LP-A1cta-advisor-b

9. MBA Applications at 7-Year Low

Bloomberg By Robb MandelbaumData Bloomberg Businessweek collected from highly ranked business schools in our survey indicates that applications to full-time MBA programs at most of those institutions have been falling since at least 2017, despite two good years during the pandemic. At least 17 of the top 26 programs have seen long-term application declines—which for most of them continued into 2023. (At press time, Columbia Business School had yet to publish data for its class of 2025. Berkeley’s Haas School of Business declined to provide application figures for the last two years.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/best-business-schools-applications-to-top-mba-programs-fall?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

10. The U.S. Receives 1m Legal Immigrants Per Year….More than the Rest of World Combined.

Zero Hedge  Why Immigrants Came to the U.S. in 2021

New arrival data in a given year includes non-tourist visas, new arrival green cards, refugees, and asylees.

Each arrival falls under a broad class of admission:

  • Work: Includes visas for specialty occupations or temporary agricultural work, as well as new arrival green cards issued for employment.
  • School: Includes student visas and families of student visa recipients.
  • Family: Includes immigrant visas and new arrival green cards issued for relatives of American citizens.
  • Safety: Includes refugees and asylees, as well as immigrant visas and new arrival green cards issued for fears of safety or persecution.
  • Diversity: Entry through the Diversity Visa Program—also known as the “green card lottery”—which accepts applicants from countries with low numbers of immigrants in the previous five years.

In 2021, the United States saw 1.53 million new arrivals. Here’s how the arrivals break down by class and origin:

New arrivals for work were the largest cohort of entries to America, totaling 638,551 people or 41.8% of new arrivals. The majority came from neighboring Mexico, which accounted for 55% of incoming workers and was the largest single country of origin.

School and education saw 492,153 people 32.2% of new U.S. arrivals, with the majority coming from Asian countries. China had the most school-related entries into the U.S. out of individual countries, accounting for 19.0% of total school-related entries, followed by India at 17.4%.

Family entries to the U.S. comprised just 23.2% or under a quarter of incoming new arrivals. In these instances, the largest cohorts came from India (17.6% of family entrants) and Mexico (15.2% of family entrants).

Compared to the larger classifications above, safety (1.9% of total entrants) and diversity (0.9% of total entrants) accounted for significantly fewer U.S. arrivals. The countries with the most citizens seeking refuge or asylum were the Democratic Republic of the Congo (4,876 refugees) and Venezuela (1,596 asylees) respectively.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-do-people-immigrate-us

Topley’s Top 10 – November 06, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. NVDA vs. AAPL

At 27 times projected earnings, Apple trades roughly in line with Nvidia. One company isn’t growing. One company is on fire. Investors can do the math. Barrons Eric J. Savitz  https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-nvidia-stock-price-tech-earnings-478083ec?mod=past_editions

2. Another Look at Small Cap vs. QQQ

Chart of the Day—Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

Large cap tech stocks have been outperforming small caps for awhile now.

(allstarcharts.com)

3. By Far the Longest Drawdown in Bond History

4. Global Central Banks Already Cutting Rates.

5. Companies with Huge Cash Stockpiles.

6. Ryan Detrick Carson—Recession Not In Numbers Yet.

 7. Who Owns U.S. Debt 2023?  China Selling and Japan May Start Selling

https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20totals%20from%20January%202023%20are%20lower%20than%20reported.&text=As%20of%20January%202023%2C%20the,and%20Luxembourg%20(%24318%20billion).

8. U.S. Dropping as China Trade Partner

WJS Latin America, Africa and developing markets in Asia now account for 36% of overall Chinese trade, compared with 33% for its trade with the U.S., Europe and Japan, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Chinese customs data. As recently as last summer, that trio of advanced markets accounted for a larger share of Chinese trade. Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com and Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/economy-us-china-tariffs-trade-investment-1c58d24e?mod=itp_wsj

9. Growth of Home Schooling in U.S.

10. The Secret to Persuading Almost Anyone Comes Down to 4 Simple Words

Getting buy-in is all about creating the right expectations.

BY JASON ATEN, TECH COLUMNIST@JASONATEN

Getting someone to do a thing you want them to do is one of the most challenging things about interacting with other humans. We all have our own agendas and desires and they are often informed by our individual values and perception of the world around us. 

If you are in a job that involves persuading people–like sales, or leading a team–you know that one of the most important aspects of persuasion is creating the right expectations. If you want a person to do something, it’s helpful to start by getting buy-in from them, and expectations help to do just that.

For example, imagine you are sitting across the table from someone who is trying to figure out what to buy from you. For them, this is all new, and they’re having to make a series of decisions about whether all of the things you offer will be a good fit. You can see that they’re trying to sort through it all when you say, “Most of my customers…” followed by whatever it is that most of your customers choose.

“Most of my customers find that option ‘C’ gives them the flexibility they need, while scaling affordably as they grow.”

There’s a very simple reason this works. Most people want to be like most people, most of the time. That’s human nature. If someone is considering becoming your customer, they aren’t just buying a thing, they’re buying into the experience of being your customer. For them, knowing what that means creates expectations and makes them more comfortable. 

Look, even though they may say otherwise, most people don’t want to be unique. They want to be like the rest of your customers and you can help by telling them what that means. That is, after all, the entire point of almost all marketing–to tell a story about what it looks like to use a product or service.

There are, of course, a few important caveats. The first is that whatever comes after those four words have to be true. If you just make stuff up, it might persuade someone for a short time, but, eventually, it will become obvious that you lied. Not only will they not be persuaded, they won’t ever trust you again. It’s just not worth it.

This is important because it can be tempting to try this trick to persuade people to spend more or to choose something that isn’t in their best interests. That’s a different four-word phrase altogether: “Everyone is doing it.” The difference is, that’s about putting peer pressure on someone to do something for your own benefit. Again, it might work for a little while, but it will cost you your credibility. 

Second, this works best when the person you are persuading is making a decision to buy in. The key is that the person wants to be a part of the group, whether that’s your customers or your team. It’s not helpful to tell someone what all of your customers do if they aren’t in any way interested in being one of your customers.

Finally, those four words work even better when you follow them with an explanation of why. For example, “most of our clients choose option ‘C’ because it gives them the flexibility they need while allowing them to scale affordably,” gives your potential customer the information they need to see themself in that situation. 

Obviously, this doesn’t work for everyone. That’s why I say “almost anyone,” because there will always be someone who resists any attempt to conform to whatever is normal. That’s okay. When you find that it doesn’t work, it’s probably a good sign that that customer wasn’t a good fit anyway.

https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/the-secret-to-persuading-almost-anyone-comes-down-to-4-simple-words.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=freeform