Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

1. S&P Official Close Below 200-Day Moving Average.

2. FAAANG+ Above 200 Day

But Blue Trendline Broke

3. QQQ-4 Lower Lows and 200-Day in Play

4. Majority of Sector Names in -10% Correction …This is not counting Thursday.

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright

5. Greek Stock Market Doubled Off Bottom Before this Correction

Who had the Greece vs. China trade mid-2022? Greece straight up vs. China FXI ETF

6. Kering Luxury Goods Seller Missed Earnings….1/3 of Sales are to China…….Breaking 2022 Bear Market Lows.

7. Hong Kong Stock Market Approaching 2022 Bear Lows.

8. Argentina was International Performance Leader -20% Correction

9. Four Reasons the Housing Market is Broken-Ben Carlson

10. How to Be the Most Interesting Person in the Room, According to Science

The science behind owning the room in a social situation.

BY MARCEL SCHWANTES, INC. CONTRIBUTING EDITOR AND FOUNDER, LEADERSHIP FROM THE CORE@MARCELSCHWANTES

If you’re like most smart and savvy business people, you might be looking for an edge in jump-starting a great conversation at a social event. Have you ever wondered what makes some networkers more interesting and likable when it comes to connecting with others in such situations?

It starts with knowing your brain. You have this part of your brain that experts call the “deliberate system.” It’s pretty powerful when you know how to use it right. But here’s the catch: Your deliberate system, which is subconscious, is like a computer that can only handle so much data at once. So, it tends to filter out a bunch of stuff around us, which means we might miss out on essential cues and events.

What you need to avoid

Now, when it comes to making the most of this deliberate system, brain experts have some solid advice. They say to steer clear of negative stereotypes and quick judgments. Why? Because if we’ve already decided we don’t like someone, we’ll only pay attention to things that back up our opinion. It’s like wearing a pair of confirmation bias glasses. So, keeping an open mind and holding off on snap judgments is key. This way, you’re really giving your brain the chance to work at its best.

Why This E-Commerce Entrepreneur Changed Her Mind About Influencer Marketingnds of 1

Before you dive into a conversation, take a moment to figure out what you’re aiming for. This sets the tone for your whole brain operation during the talk. By having clear intentions, you are more likely to overlook any awkwardness or annoyances and be better able to notice the interesting aspects of the conversation. This will allow you to establish a strong rapport with the person you are conversing with.

Three ways to be interesting

To become more interesting, you must focus on the other person and be genuinely curious about them. This means finding something interesting about them, something you may have learned during a conversation, and following up with thought-provoking questions. Studies show that curious people have better relationships and connect better with others.

Another way to be more interesting is to focus on the positive. Our brains are wired to scan our surroundings for rewards and threats constantly. If we focus only on the threats, we become stressed, impairing our ability to think and communicate effectively. Instead, focus on the rewards. Even if you’re nervous, try to find something interesting or fascinating in the conversation to shift your brain’s focus.

Finally, people love talking about themselves, so ask them genuine questions. By showing an interest in their story, you make yourself more interesting. Science explains that when you build others up by being curious about them and asking about their views on a topic, it’s inherently rewarding for their brains.

When asking questions, quality counts. Avoid the generic conversational starters like “What do you do?” or “Where are you from?” and instead ask more compelling questions like “What made you choose to live there?” or “What do you like the most about your job?”

By making the conversation about the other person, you train your brain to be more socially active and become the more interesting person in the room.

https://www.inc.com/marcel-schwantes/how-to-be-most-interesting-person-in-room-according-to-science.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=freeform

Topley’s Top 10 – October 25, 2023

October 25, 2023

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. US Stock Repurchases are Tracking a 3% Decline in the Third Quarter after Falling 26% in the Previous Three Months, According to Bank of America Corp. Strategists

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Corporate America’s spending on share buybacks, a driver of the US stock market rally for over a decade, is slowing in the face of higher-for-longer interest rates and an uncertain economic backdrop. US stock repurchases are tracking a 3% decline in the third quarter after falling 26% in the previous three months, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. Though the reversal appears to be becoming less severe, BofA says tightening credit conditions and increased cost of capital mean buybacks remain at risk.

2. Since Fed Hikes S&P vs. Small Cap

Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor The S&P 500 is flat since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022. It’s weathered the hiking cycle much better than smaller stocks that are more sensitive to tighter financial conditions. Over the same time, the Russell 2000 is down 16%.

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/10/24/facts-can-be-misleading/

3. PKW-Buyback ETF Closes Below 200-Day

4. Equal Weight vs Cap Weigh S&P

5. Chinese Real Estate Index -80%

6. Gasoline Futures Back to 200-Week Moving Average

7. 10-Year Hit 5% then Reversed Intra-Day

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-closer-earnings-yield-reversal-positioning-10-23-23

8. AI Website Visits.

From The Daily Shot Brief

9. Americans Car Loan Default Rates.

Bloomberg By Claire BallentineAmericans are falling behind on their auto loans at the highest rate in nearly three decades. With interest rate hikes making newer loans more expensive, millions of car owners are struggling to afford their payments. It’s a clear indication of distress at a time when the economy is sending mixed signals, particularly about the health of consumer spending.

The percent of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans rose to 6.11% in September, the highest in data going back to 1994, according to Fitch Ratings. In April that figure slipped from a previous high of 5.93% in January. But after burning through tax returns, contending with a shakier job market and grappling with still-elevated inflation, more car owners have become delinquent.

10. Poor Wellbeing Linked to Formation of New Chronic Conditions

BY DAN WITTERS AND SANGEETA AGRAWAL

Lower wellbeing linked to 159 extra new conditions per 1,000 people
Analysis tracks 3,654 working adults over three-year period
$101.5 billion in new annual healthcare costs linked to extra conditions

WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. adult workers who have poor wellbeing across most or all of the five essential elements of wellbeing are about twice as likely to report a major new chronic condition over a 36-month period of successive surveys than are their counterparts who have high wellbeing in no more than one element. Overall:

Those workers with poor wellbeing (defined as having high wellbeing in one or none of the five elements) developed 450 new chronic conditions per 1,000 persons three years after being initially interviewed.
Those workers with inconsistent wellbeing (i.e., high wellbeing in two to four of the elements) added 330 new chronic conditions per 1,000 persons over the three-year period.
Those workers with holistic wellbeing (i.e., high wellbeing in all five elements) added 230 new chronic conditions per 1,000 persons over three years.

As such, out of every 1,000 full-time working adults with either poor or inconsistent wellbeing, the increased odds of developing or experiencing new diseases or medical conditions are associated with an extra 159 chronic conditions over the 36-month measurement period than what would otherwise be expected if all 1,000 workers had holistically high wellbeing.

The wellbeing classification is based on the wellbeing of each respondent at the start of the three-year window. The increased disease rate for high-wellbeing respondents is statistically lower than the rates for their lower-wellbeing counterparts.

Gallup’s five essential elements of wellbeing are:

Career wellbeing: You like what you do every day.
Social wellbeing: You have meaningful friendships in your life.
Financial wellbeing: You manage your money well.
Physical wellbeing: You have energy to get things done.
Community wellbeing: You like where you live.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/512750/poor-wellbeing-linked-formation-new-chronic-conditions.aspx

Topley’s Top 10 – October 24, 2023

October 24, 2023

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. S&P 200 Day in Play…Chart to Watch.

2. Vanguard Growth Index…4 Lower Highs.

VUG-up big for the year but chart needs reversal.

3. Blackrock 60/40 Update.

BIGPX chart below 200day and breaks early October level.

4. Small Business in the U.S. is Paying 10% Interest on Loans.

Torston Slok Apollo There are 33 million small businesses in the US, and the monthly survey from the NFIB shows that small businesses are now paying 10% interest on short-term loans, see chart below.

In other words, Fed policy is working as the textbook would have predicted, and companies are facing higher costs of capital.

The outcome is lower capex spending and lower hiring.

5. S&P 600 is Small Cap Names that Make Money.

40% of Russell 2000 has no net profits….But even Small caps that make money also approaching 2022 lows.

6. Moderna…$500 to $80

7. Update on Lithium Stocks….ETF -50% from Highs.

8. Home Construction ETF Chart Back to Summer Lows….Still +17% YTD with Disappearing Home Equity Lines.

9. Buy vs. Rent ….52% More Expensive to Buy than Rent.

Chartr.com

10. Body Movement.

Sunday Firesides: Be a Swiss Army Human

How many different physical movements did you perform in the past week?

You surely walked, at least between your house and car and your car and office. Perhaps you bent over or reached for something above your head. If you follow a regular fitness routine, maybe you also ran, pedaled, squatted, and lunged.

But even if you fall into the category of regular exerciser, you likely still only used a small percentage of your body’s physical capabilities.

And that’s been true not only for days, but months and even years.

When was the last time you crawled or rolled?

Jumped up to something . . . down from something . . . over something?

Threw a punch . . . or a ball?

Hung from a bar right-side up . . . or upside-down?

Balanced across a beam?

Scaled a vertical ladder . . . or traversed a horizontal one?

Vaulted over a wall?

Carried something other than groceries?

Climbed a rope . . . a tree . . . a mountain?

Swam? Dived? Danced?

The human body is the greatest multitool on earth. Yet most people function as if they were only a blade.

Your physical capacities aren’t just nice to have in your back pocket. They unlock a spectrum of possibilities. Practicing the myriad of embodied skills you possess hones your health, allows you to navigate more landscapes, and could save your life in an emergency. Best of all, it simply feels amazing to be physically competent, to be able to explore every environment — to fulfill the measure of your creation.

So don’t just attack life with a knife. Bust out your metaphorical magnifying glass, screwdriver, scissors, and toothpick. And regularly use that corkscrew to open a bottle of life’s many physical joys.

https://www.artofmanliness.com/health-fitness/health/sunday-firesides-be-a-swiss-army-human/ Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

Topley’s Top 10 – October 23, 2023

October 23, 2023

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Dow Industrials and Dow Transports Trading Below 200-Day Moving Average.

2. Solar Earnings Misses Push Sector to New Lows.

SolarEdge Technologies SEDG, -5.63% warned on profits due to a slowdown in solar-power installations in Europe, news that also hurt rivals including Enphase Energy ENPH, -6.41% and SunPower SPWR, -2.28%. Marketwatch

TAN Solar ETF 50day thru 200day to downside

3. ICLN Clean Energy ETF …50day thru 200day to Downside

4. Update…XLE Oil Energy ETF vs. TAN Solar ETF

Oil outperforming solar by wide margin

5. EWJ Japan ETF….Popular Post Warren Buffet Japanese Buys.

EWJ Triple Top and Close Below 200-Day

6. Gold Hits Record Level vs. Major International Currencies.

7. 10-Year Treasury Yield Hitting Resistance Level Going Back to 2008

8. Prologis Industrial REIT Making Run at 2022 Lows.

9. Mortgage Rates=5 Million Fewer Households Qualify for $400k Mortgage

10. Thomas Sowell Intellectuals and Culture

Topley’s Top 10 – October 18, 2023

October 18, 2023

Matt Topley

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. Stock vs. Bond Ratio

Callum Thomas Stocks vs Bonds: Stocks have had an amazing run vs corporate bonds since the 2009 market bottom. You might say though that they only just got back to the dot-com high, and effectively had a lost 2-decades. As they say: entry point and path matter! Interesting also though to see it peaking out after a sharp run up — overbought at resistance?

Source: @Barchart

2. Long-Term Bonds More Volatile than Stocks.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

BofA Notes that TLT is in its largest drawdown since inception – We had 3 Bad Auctions last week. Liquidity starting to get shaky in Treasuries?

Long-Term Bonds are now more volatile than stocks by the largest margin ever recorded, Bloombergs note.

3. Two-Year Yield Hits 2007 Levels.

4. Short-Term…US Treasuries Oversold Again.

Found at Irrelevant Investor Blog https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/10/15/these-are-the-goods-333/

5. Nasdaq 100 vs. Russell Small Cap Close to Record Spreads in Performance.

6. NVDA -5% Tuesday …..

NVDA did not get to previous highs…..next support $400-404

www.stockcharts.com

7. Ex-Magnificant Seven….S&P Just Hit Lowest Level of 2023

Marketwatch Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, highlighted the fact that the S&P 500 excluding the “Magnificent Seven” megacap technology names recently touched its lowest level of the year, while the ratio of the S&P 500 excluding the Mag Seven vs. the entire index has fallen to its lowest level since late 2021. By Joseph Adinolfi

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-biggest-bear-is-standing-by-his-call-for-stocks-to-slump-10-by-january-here-are-4-charts-that-support-his-point-f2558974?mod=home-page

8. The Cap Rate for Real Estate Now Equals 10 Year Treasury Yield….

The 10-year government bond now yields a higher return than the Cap Rate, or profit from operating a rental property.
The Kobeissi Letter https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter

9. Home Sales Major Drop in Volume.

Found at The Big Picture Blog Barry Ritholtz https://ritholtz.com/2023/10/10-tuesday-am-reads-446/

10. How to Achieve Goals.How to Achieve the Goals You Set

One of the most widely read TraderFeed posts in the last few years dealt with the topic of FIGS: Focused, Intensive Goal Setting. Too often, the goals that we set are not much more than good intentions. New Year’s resolutions are a notorious example. How can we become better at actually achieving the goals we set?

As the previous post emphasized, when we focus our attention on fewer priorities and work consistently and intensively on those, we are much more likely to make progress than if we have a laundry list of changes to make and work on those as the need/desire arises. So, for instance, if we want to get in good physical shape, dedicated daily time with gym equipment and running is a great start. That time with lifting, stretching, and running has to challenge us, which means we always tackle more when a given level of effort becomes routine. If our pursuit of goals is not focused, frequent, and intensive, we’re unlikely to sustain a consistent growth path.

We are most likely to succeed if our goals become our commitments. When I worked at a well-known hedge fund, the founder once commented that, “If it’s not in your calendar, it’s not part of your process”. This most certainly applies to our trading processes: researching ideas, turning ideas into trades, monitoring markets, and managing risk/reward. It equally applies to any of our purposeful activities, including the personal goals we set.

When we commit to our goal-seeking in the daily calendar and create a dedicated time for making efforts at improvement, we experience our desired future every day. “Anyone who fights for the future lives in it today,” Ayn Rand once observed. Fighting for the future daily means that we experience a piece of our future consistently, making it an intrinsic part of ourselves. What starts as passion and desire is expressed through regular effort and evolves into positive habit.

Imagine that you have a single hour every day to pursue one goal that will dramatically benefit your trading, your health, your mindset, or your relationships. Imagine that this is the first item to go into your calendar; routine work and home tasks have to fit around your one key objective. Every day, without fail, you are going to use a slice of your day to be your own performance coach and bring your real self closer to your ideal self. That way, you will spend a fraction of every day living in your future.

That is most likely to occur if we have very concrete targets to hit in pursuit of our goals. If we want to lose weight, we want to define a challenging but doable objective. If we are looking to improve our trading, we need to keep stats so that we can truly see our progress: number of winning/losing trades, average sizes of winners/losers, overall profitability, etc. If we are making improvements in our relationships, we want to very intentionally do more of the things that bring closeness, happiness, and fulfillment to our partners and to us.

Mental illness is when we live in the past every day. Mundane life is when we simply live life each day at a time. Greatness is when we live a consistent portion of each day in the future we are designing and building.

What future do you want to build? How can you immerse yourself in that future today?

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/10/how-to-achieve-goals-you-set.html Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com