TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 01 2024

1. Bitcoin ETF Sideways Channel

IBIT after big run-up, now in sideways pattern, see how it breaks.

2. Bitcoin Trades 24/7 But Since Launch of ETF….Weekend Trading Volume Sinks

(Bloomberg) – The proportion of Bitcoin traded over weekends has declined to an all-time low of 16% this year, according to cryptocurrency research firm Kaiko. The drop comes in the wake of the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded-funds, which appears to have shifted the periods when Bitcoin is traded to be more in line with the schedule of traditional equity exchanges and has lowered its price volatility.

One of crypto’s noteworthy traits is that, unlike stocks, it trades during all hours of the day and even on Saturdays and Sundays. In the past, Bitcoin trading gained notoriety for its “Wild Weekends,” where the digital currency would experience wide price fluctuations.

But that phenomenon seems to be cooling since Bitcoin’s weekend trading volume has continued to dwindle from its high of 28% in 2019. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs is likely a big reason why.

3. China Giving Back May Run-Up

FXI Large Cap China…May 20th gave bullish upside 50day thru pulling back

4. That Same Run-Up Started Catch Up vs. India

5. U.S and India Growing Percentage of World Market Cap

Bespoke Investment Group —We began the week with our Chart of the Day on Monday looking at Bloomberg’s % of World Market Cap indices.  As shown below, the US now makes up 48% of world stock market cap, which is a record high going back to late 2003.  Ten years ago in 2014, the US made up roughly 36% of world market cap, so it has risen 12 percentage points since then.  Note that while the US makes up nearly half of world stock market cap, it only makes up about 25% of global GDP.

While most countries have seen their share of world stock market cap fall as the US has risen, India is really the only major player on the world stage that has also seen its share increase consistently over time.  As shown below, India has seen its share of world market cap more than double since its COVID low in early 2020.

6. Nike Breaks Hard Thru 2022 Bear Market Levels

7. Silver Outperforming S&P in First Half 2024

8. This is not Meant to be Political….Hydrocarbon 2004-2023

Authored by Robert Bryce via Substack
I’ve updated it with the latest figures from Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the Statistical Review.

From Zerohedge

9. 25% of Offices Will Be Empty By 2026

While employees initially had to create home office setups by necessity, factors like work-life balance, reduced time spent commuting, and generally becoming accustomed to the comforts of their own desks (and/or couches) left many with a taste for the hybrid 9-5 model that still lingers today… despite mounting pressure from businesses trying to clamp down on remote working.

Indeed, the desire to WFH remains strong: research cited by The Economist indicates that the typical worker worldwide wants 2 days at home — an entire day more than the actual average — and a LinkedIn survey in January found that now only 39% of US employees want a fully in-person job. 

With WFH looking increasingly established, one sector in particular is struggling to adjust to the new normal: commercial real estate. In fact, although US office vacancy rates are already at record highs, according to a report from Moody’s published yesterday, they are set to continue rising up to 24% by early 2026, driven by the expiration of leases and an influx of new office buildings onto the market.

As we noted earlier this week, the pressures on the commercial real estate sector are weighing heavily on REITs and other real estate-exposed stocks… but, while there might be short-term pain, the outlook is not entirely bleak. Moody’s foresees vacancy rates eventually stabilizing as redundant offices are either demolished or repurposed into warehouses and residential properties.

10. Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA Grew Up in Russia…Why He Doesn’t Invest in China?

Excerpt #3: Why I Don’t Invest in China

The easiest question to answer of all is why I don’t invest in China. If every question were this straightforward, life would be much simpler. 

So, why do I avoid investing in China? 

For the same reason I don’t invest in Russia or any country where I operate by this one simple rule: If I were to write a negative article about the country’s leader, would I feel comfortable traveling there afterward? 

If the answer is no, I probably shouldn’t invest in that country.

Let me share a true story. 

In 2008, I went to Russia for the first and only time since leaving in 1991. This was after the government had stolen a company from its shareholders. I was planning to write a negative article about the incident and actually did write it, but I never published it. 

The reason I didn’t publish was that I realized nobody in Russia would care about the content of my article, except if I got arrested for jaywalking. They would find out I was an American citizen, Google me, find the article, and then my fate might change.

For that reason, I’ve never invested in Russia; and for the same reason, I’ve never invested in China. 

The Chinese government decided that Jack Ma said something wrong. By the way, this is something I always had an issue with regarding Charlie Munger. Somehow, he looked at Singapore and Hong Kong and fantasized about China. I looked at China and just saw a bigger version of Russia, albeit maybe slightly more pragmatic. 

This is why we never really invested in China. I don’t want to wake up one morning and find out that a CEO said something the government didn’t like, and suddenly I don’t own the company anymore.

But do you know what happened during this period? Where do we begin …
1.3 million Americans died while fighting nine major wars.
Roughly 99.9% of all companies that were created went out of business.
Four U.S. presidents were assassinated.

  • 675,000 Americans died in a single year from a flu pandemic.
  • 30 separate natural disasters killed at least 400 Americans each.
  • 33 recessions lasted a cumulative 48 years.
  • The number of forecasters who predicted any of those recessions rounds to zero.
  • The stock market fell more than 10% from a recent high at least 102 times.
  • Stocks lost a third of their value at least 12 times.
  • Annual inflation exceeded 7% in 20 separate years.
  • The words “economic pessimism” appeared in newspapers at least 29,000 times, according to Google.

Our standard of living increased 20-fold in these 170 years, but barely a day went by that lacked tangible reasons for pessimism.
Getting Wealthy vs. Staying Wealthy · Collab Fund