1. S&P Value Stocks Have Declined 11 Consecutive Days: The Longest in History

Via Dan Stratemeier, Jefferies Managing Director Equities, Event Driven Strategies

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2. Dow Jones Down 9 Consecutive Days, First Time Since 1978

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3. United Health is Half of Dow Sell-Off

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4. Fed Rate Cut Path to Slow 2025

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading: With inflation proving sticky, Wall Street banks have started to anticipate that the Fed will forecast perhaps one fewer cut next year, meaning three-quarters of a point in total. And some predict the central bank may pencil in just a half-point, a level that’s broadly in line with what swaps markets are pricing in.

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5. Equity supply

From the Daily DC Chart: Unlike previous risk frenzies, this one lacks an equity supply response. This year is tracking to a net negative, and marks three straight years of no supply, with a rolling three-year negative number.

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6. Musk Wealth Doubles Bezos

Via Bloomberg

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7. Tesla vs. Amazon Chart Post Election

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8. Tesla vs. FAANG Stocks Since Election

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9. Masa’s SoftBank bets $100B on America under Trump

Via Pitchbook: SoftBank is investing $100 billion into US companies, President-elect Donald Trump announced Monday with CEO Masayoshi Son.

“My confidence level of the economy of the United States has tremendously increased with his victory,” Son said at the press conference.

The colossal bet on US industry is Masa’s latest effort to reassert SoftBank—and himself—as the world’s leading tech investor after having retreated to the sidelines in 2023.

The Japanese investor is in a transitional period. Last month, Rajeev Misra, one of the original architects of the Vision Fund, left the company. After being burned by the tech reset in 2022, SoftBank has restarted investing in startups heavily geared toward AI. Its recent investments include OpenAI and Glean.

Across its two Vision Funds and LatAm fund, SoftBank’s current investment gain stands at $1.9 billion.

But SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2, which it largely deployed in 2020 and 2021, is still underwater to the tune of $22 billion. Despite strong tech stock performance in the second half of 2024, VF2’s fair value remained flat this year: It started 2024 at $33.7 billion, and its fair value had dipped to $32.9 billion as of September 30.

This is a huge sum for SoftBank to deploy from its balance sheet. SoftBank recorded a $17 billion investment gain in the six months ending September 2024—up from a $6 billion loss the year prior.

In 2016, after Trump’s first election victory, SoftBank announced it would invest $50 billion into US companies. It followed through, backing startups such as DoorDash and Slack. Both were tremendously successful for Vision Fund 1, netting a gross return on investment of $7.5 billion and $1 billion, respectively.

But the firm reportedly invested roughly $18.5 billion into the now-bankrupt co-working space provider WeWork.

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10. Not a Great Statement on Society

Walmart is putting body cameras on employees. The technology is being used as a deterrent against theft and other bad customer behavior

From QZ: As the holiday shopping season comes to a frenzied peak, Walmart is introducing a new tool that it hopes will help reduce tensions for frenzied staffers. CNBC (CMCSA) reports that the retail giant is going to start affixing body cameras to workers in its stores.

The company told the outlet that the cameras are still in the pilot testing stage, but a Walmart spokesperson did say that “we are always looking at new and innovative technology used across the retail industry.”

One use of the technology will be to create a deterrent for bad behavior by customers, to which retail workers are often on the receiving end. Another use will be to possibly reduce theft. Though the National Retail Federation walked back claims last year about the extent of shoplifting in recent years, the problem remains a concern for stores.

Walmart (WMT) is not the only company whose workers are donning cameras. This summer, discount retail chain T.J. Maxx (TJX) said that its staff would be using body cameras as well.

“When somebody comes in, it’s almost like a de-escalation where people are less likely to do something when they’re being videotaped,” CFO John Joseph Klinger said during a company earnings call, adding that the discount retailer started using the cameras late last year and “definitely feels that they’re playing a role.”

1. China Biggest Monthly Outflow EVER

China capital markets outflow hits record high in Nov after Trump election win.

From Reuters: China’s capital markets outflow reached a record high of $45.7 billion in November, according to official data tracking cross-border payments, as Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win roiled global portfolio flows.

Cross-border receipts from portfolio investments were $188.9 billion, while payments totalled $234.6 billion, resulting in the biggest monthly deficit on record, according to data from China’s foreign exchange regulator.

The data release comes as China’s policy-driven stock market rally that started in late September is losing steam, while the yuan has slumped against the dollar in the face of tariff threats from Trump.

The massive deficit, which widened from a $25.8 billion outflow in October, also reflects weakening investor confidence, despite a slew of policies announced by Beijing since late September to stimulate an economy mired in a property crisis, weak consumption and persistent deflation.

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2. KWEB-Chinese Internet Stock ETF

Back into sideways pattern…2 years sideways.

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3. AAII Sentiment: 50 Weeks of Bulls in 2024, Not Seen Since Late 90’s

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4. U.S. Large Cap Still Dominates Inflow

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5. Fund Managers Cash Levels

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6. Mapped: Crypto Ownership Growth by Region in 2024 ₿

Via Voronoiapp

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7. Majority of Investors consider Sports, Gaming, and Music Rights too risky, New Survey Finds

Goldman Sachs recently called sports investing the next trillion-dollar market.

So the answers that 107 institutional investors from around the world gave to a survey this fall are surprising. Nine in 10 said it’s too risky.

They also showed little appetite for two other hot areas — gaming and music rights, which NYT says is being swallowed, and ruined, by private equity. Middle Eastern investors may have this space to themselves.

The report has grim news for the industry: 90% of investors said they’ve received requests from money managers for fund extensions as dealmaking remains slow, and more than two-thirds said they’ve seen funds raise less than what managers had targeted.

Via Semafor

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8. Global Coal Supply

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9. Annual Income Needed to Buy Home

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10. Psychology Today Shares the 5 Things that can Increase Brain Inflammation

Alcohol, diet, and smoke, for starters.

Key points:

• Brain inflammation may damage our mood, cognition, and general brain health.
• Diet quality plays a major role in our overall inflammatory state, and may significantly influence brain inflammation.
• Poor metabolic health, exposure to smoke, and excess alcohol may all negatively impact brain inflammation.

From Psychology Today: When we experience inflammation in our joints, we may have redness, swelling, and pain. If we have inflammation in our skin, we might get an itchy or otherwise annoying rash. But what happens if there is inflammation in our brains?

In recent years, scientists have shown that inflammation in our brains may be a significant contributor to everything from risk for dementias like Alzheimer’s to mood issues like depression to trouble making healthy decisions. That’s a big deal, because these brain issues are major contributors to our quality of life.

Some factors in our lives that contribute to brain inflammation may be unavoidable, and some may have occurred long ago. But there are still several things that we can do to help keep levels of brain inflammation in check. Here are 5 great examples of things worth paying attention to:

1. A low-quality diet.

The food we eat is likely a major contributor to our overall immune state as well as the immune state of our brains. It’s thought that a diet rich in processed food (think added sugar, refined carbohydrates, seed oils, processed meats) may contribute to inflammation in our brains, while a diet rich in leafy greens, nuts, fruits/berries, whole fish/omega-3s, polyphenols, gut-healthy fiber (consider adding some fermented foods for an extra gut-health bonus) as well as flavorful spices like cloves, cinnamon and turmeric may have the opposite effect. For inspiration, check out the Mediterranean diet, which is especially rich in all of these key healthy nutrients.

2. Poor metabolic health.

Research shows that our metabolic health (our body’s ability to extract nutrients from and generate energy from our food) is tightly linked to our immune health, including levels of inflammation. We now know that most of us are likely to be metabolically unhealthy, and that this may have carryover effects for our risk of brain diseases, in part by way of inflammation. Key variables that influence metabolic health include our diet (especially the way our food influences insulin and blood sugar levels), whether or not we get exercise, and even our levels of psychological stress.

Some basic strategies to help improve metabolic health include paying attention to and limiting your added sugar intake, lowering your daily consumption of simple carbohydrates like white bread, pasta, muffins, cakes cookies, and cereal, and engaging in daily movement practices.

3. Exposure to smoke and substances (especially excess alcohol use).

Research shows that exposure to smoke (either because we smoke cigarettes or smoke in air pollution) may increase levels of inflammation in our brains. Similarly, it’s been proposed that exposure to certain drugs may have a damaging effect on our brains by way of the immune system. Though the use of some of these drugs is less common, we likely need to be careful about drinking too much alcohol which may increase inflammation in the brain. It’s still debatable if there really is a “brain safe” level of alcohol consumption.

Some basic steps include getting help quitting smoking (if you smoke), doing your best to reduce exposure to air pollution (check your local AQI) whenever possible—including considering a HEPA filter in your home, and limiting alcohol consumption as viable.

4. Too much weight around our bellies.

Our fat cells are immunologically active cells, and this appears to be especially the case for our belly fat. White fat cells deep in our bellies and around our internal organs are thought to contribute to inflammation in our bodies, which may negatively impact inflammation in our brains. While weight loss is a challenging conversation, some strategies worth considering as it relates to decreasing our belly fat include cutting back on refined carbohydrates and added sugar, as well as limiting alcohol consumption.

5. Chronic stress.

One of the most powerful connections between brain inflammation and what we put into our bodies concerns stress. When we experience chronic stress, which can happen for a wide variety of reasons, it appears to increase inflammatory pathways in the brain. Though some stress may be unavoidable, a few practices worth trying include limiting exposure to stressful news and social media (especially before bed) and trying a stress mitigation technique like mindfulness, time in nature, or breathwork.

1. Bitcoin vs. Gold Post Election

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2. 9 of 11 S&P Sectors Down Last Week….Equal Weight S&P on 50-Day Again

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3. S&P: 9 Consecutive Days of Negative Breadth – More Down Stocks than Up Stocks

Via Bespoke Investment Group

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4. Buffet Sitting on Record Cash Position…Stock Sideways Box Since August

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5. Software Companies Capex 46% AI

Tomasz Tunguz shares how AI is dominating venture capital software investment.

Via the Abnormal Returns blog

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6. Broadcom Hits New Highs: from $160 to $224

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7. Sector Comparison-Private Equity vs. Russell 2000 Small Cap

Via Cambridge Associates

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8. Fear and Greed Index Neutral…It Feels Otherwise But?

Via CNN Markets

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9. China’s “UEL”

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10. We are at the Beginning of a Downturn in High School Graduate Population in the U.S.

Via Interstate Passport

1. Semiconductor Index 4^th Pullback to 200-Day

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2. Ethereum Still Did Not Break Out

Long-term chart: 50-week approaching 200-week but no bullish cross yet.

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3. Uranium Pullback Still in Box

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4. Travel Season Airlines ETF JETS

50-week crossed above 200-week in chart.

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5. IWC-Microcap ETF Below Highs but Bullish Cross

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6. Back-to-Back 20% S&P Years with Manufacturing PMI in Downtrend

Via Trade Economics

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7. Economics vs. Stocks…Never Seen it Work

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8. United Healthcare is -18% from Highs

UNH closes below 200-day.

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9. The Longest Inverted Yield Curve in History Ending

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10. Highest Use by Teens

Via Abnormal Returns

1. Growth in S&P vs. Earnings

Via Jack Ablin-Cresset

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2. New-Highs for GOOGL

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3. Space UFO ETF +41% 6 Months Leading Up to Election

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4. Wow! This Might be the Stat of the Year

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5. ADBE had NOT Made it Back to Highs Prior to Last Night’s Number

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6. IBIT Surpassed $50B Assets in 227 Days

The Daily Shot Brief Cryptocurrency: The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) surpassed $50 billion in assets in just 227 days, achieving this milestone five times faster than the previous record-holder, IEMG, which took 1,323 days. IEFA and VOO reached similar levels in comparable time frames.

Source: @EricBalchunas,@JackiWang17

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7. Will 2025 See an IPO Boom?

CNBC reports that Renaissance Capital IPO ETF (IPO), a basket of recent IPOs, is up 22% this year, many of the companies in that ETF are two years old or more. There simply has not been enough IPOs to repopulate it with newer offerings. There are now only 32 holdings in the ETF, with half that were there two years ago.

IPOs: Total raised

• 2024 YTD: $28.8 billion
• 2023:  $19.4 billion
• 2022:  $7.7 billion
• 2021:  $142 billion (record)
• 2020:  $78 billion
• 2019:  $46 billion
• 2018:  $47 billion
• 2017:  $35.5 billion

Source: Renaissance Capital

Largest IPOs of 2024 (from IPO price)

• Reddit – up  364%
• Astera Labs – up 228%
• Rubrik – up 112%
• UL Solutions – up 80%
• OneStream – up  52%
• Waystar – up 56%
• Ibotta – down 15%
• Ingram Micro – down 1%

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8. Increased Use of Employee ChatGPT

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9. New Hedge Fund Launches Set to Hit 24-Year Low

Via Reuters: New hedge fund launches will ‘likely’ end the year at their lowest in 24 years amid tough fundraising conditions, hedge fund research firm Preqin said on Wednesday, based on numbers from the first three quarters of this year.

By the third quarter of 2024, hedge fund managers opened 123 new funds, the lowest number since at least 2000 when total launches reached 191, Preqin said. Hedge fund debuts peaked at 697 in 2017, according to its data.

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10. Why Are Perfectionists Prone to Depression?