4. Interesting…Who is Buying Gold Protection? Asia
Commodities: Retail purchases of gold in Asia surged over the past 12 months.
Daily Shot Brief
5. Stocks/Gold and the U.S. Dollar
Ben Carlson
6. Energy ETF Broke 2 levels…Exxon and Chevron 40% of ETF
StockCharts
7. Starbucks Gives Back All NEW CEO Rally…. -30% from Highs
StockCharts
8. Pfizer Down on 5-Year Basis
Google Finance
9. Russians Building a Military Base 100 Miles from Finland
Via WSJ: HELSINKI—With President Trump and many other world leaders preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, some Europeans are growing alarmed about what the Russian army has been doing much more quietly along other stretches of its border with Europe.
Some 100 miles east of its border with Finland, in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, military engineers are expanding army bases where the Kremlin plans to create a new army headquarters to oversee tens of thousands of troops over the next several years.
As Russia prepares to increase its military presence along NATO’s eastern flank, Putin has ordered the military to expand its ranks to as many as 1.5 million troops, up from around one million before the Ukraine invasion.
Russia has increased military spending to more than 6% of GDP this year, from 3.6% before the war. By comparison, the U.S. spent 3.4% of its GDP on its military last year, and EU countries, on average, spent 2.1%. In 2021, before the invasion, Russia made about 40 of its main battle tanks, the T-90M, according to Western intelligence estimates. Now it is producing nearly 300 a year. A senior Finnish military official said almost none are being sent to the front line in Ukraine, but are staying on Russian soil for later use.
You don’t need to be a meal prep pro—you just need a few simple go-to methods that make your whole foods ready to eat. These are some of the easiest, most versatile ways to get set up for the week ahead.
1. Roast Lots of Vegetables
Roasting brings out the natural sweetness in vegetables and makes them more satisfying and snackable. You can batch-cook a tray or two early in the week and use them in salads, bowls, or as a ready-to-eat snack or side.
Best vegetables for roasting: cauliflower, broccoli, carrots, Brussels sprouts, sweet potatoes, zucchini
Preheat the oven to 425°F.
Chop your veggies into similar-sized pieces so they roast evenly.
Toss with about 1 teaspoon of avocado oil per cup of vegetables.
Add dried herbs and spices—rosemary, smoked paprika, cumin, and garlic powder all work well.
Spread veggies in a single layer on a baking sheet (don’t crowd them).
Roast, stirring every 10 minutes, until fork-tender—usually 20 to 40 minutes, depending on the vegetable.
Sprinkle with sea salt and pepper to taste once they’re done.
2. Make Shredded Meat
Shredded protein is one of the easiest ways to prep for the week. Toss it into salads, wraps, bowls, soups, or have it ala carte. The key is matching the method to the type of meat.
Stovetop method (best for chicken breast, chicken thighs, turkey breast)
Add 1–2 pounds of boneless, skinless poultry to a saucepan or skillet.
Pour in just enough water or broth to cover.
Add a pinch of salt or flavor boosters like garlic cloves or a bay leaf.
Bring to a boil, then reduce heat and simmer gently for 15–20 minutes, until fully cooked.
Let cool slightly, then shred with two forks or your hands.
Slow cooker method (best for pork shoulder, beef chuck roast, or boneless short ribs)
Add 2–3 pounds of meat to the slow cooker.
Pour in ½ to 1 cup of broth or water. Add chopped onion, garlic, or dried herbs if you’d like.
Cook on low for 6–8 hours or on high for 3–4 hours, until fork-tender.
Shred and store in an airtight container for up to 4 days.
3. Prepare Healthy Dips and Dressings
Dips and dressings can make vegetables, proteins, and salads more appealing—but most store-bought versions are packed with added sugar, preservatives, and low-quality oils.
Instead, try making your own. It only takes a few minutes, and you can control exactly what goes in.
This kitchen clean-out is just one part of the 10-Day Detox—our simple, step-by-step reset designed to help you eat better, feel better, and take back control of your health. So if you’re ready to seriously upgrade your nutrition and start feeling better in just 10 days, click here to learn more.
The Zweig Market Breadth Thrust has triggered for the 17th time in history. The previous 16 times have resulted in an S&P 500 average gain of 16.35% after 6 months and 23.78% after 12 months. The S&P 500 has NEVER been red after 6 months and 12 months following the trigger.
Real Investment Advice
Perplexity
2. Tesla Rallied Right Back to 200-Day Moving Average…
StockCharts
3. Kyle Bass on International Stocks
Kyle Bass
4. Bitcoin ETFs $2.9B Inflows
Bitcoin flows. “Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 31,323 $BTC, equivalent to approximately $2.9 billion. In BTC terms, it was the fifth-largest weekly inflow on record. In dollar terms, it ranks even higher – the third-largest inflow.”
Glassnode
5. Container Bookings from China Falling
Vizion
6. Gold Short-Term Overbought
Daily Shot Brief
7. Total Weight of Top 10 Companies S&P 500…Rise Since 2017
The Irrelevant Investor
8. Plane Ticket Prices Flat for 15 Years
Sherwood
9. Top Colleges Are Too Costly Even for Parents Making $300,000
Many families earn too much to get meaningful aid but too little to cover tuition out of pocket.
Bloomberg
10. Win the Morning
Via The Daily Stoic: One of the most relatable moments in Meditations is Marcus Aurelius’s argument with himself at the beginning of Book 5. It’s a struggle he’s clearly faced many mornings—as have so many of us: He knows he must get out of bed, yet desperately wants to stay under the warm covers.
It’s relatable…but it’s also impressive. Marcus didn’t actually have to get out of bed. He didn’t really have to do anything. As emperor, he could do as he pleased. One of his predecessors, Tiberius, basically abandoned the throne for an exotic island. Marcus’s adopted great-grandfather Hadrian hardly spent any time in Rome at all. The emperor had all sorts of prerogatives, and here Marcus was insisting that he rise early and get to work.
Why? Because Marcus understood that winning the morning was essential to winning the day—and ultimately, life itself. Though he wouldn’t have known the phrase “the early bird gets the worm,” he grasped that a day well-begun is half done. By pushing himself to do something difficult, by committing to what he knew he was born to do and loved to do, Marcus set himself up for daily success (more on this in our How To Read Meditations guide, by the way).
This is a practice we must follow today and every day. We should rise early, without delay. We should nourish ourselves properly. We should maintain good habits. We should tackle our most important task first thing. By winning the morning, we reduce the power that the rest of the day—much of which lies beyond our control—holds over us.
Consecutive gains. From Tuesday-Thursday, the S&P 500 was up “at least 1.5% for three days in a row. This isn’t stuff you see in bear market rallies or short covering rallies. You see this before times of strong performance. Higher 10 out of 10 times a year later and up 21.6% on average.”
Ryan Detrick
2. Gold Articles All Over the Weekend Financial Press
All told, there is now an estimated $4 trillion worth of gold held by central banks, and $5 trillion by private investors. Calculated against $260 trillion for all financial assets, including stocks, bonds, cash, and alternatives, that works out to a global gold portfolio allocation of 3.5%, a record.
Barron’s
3. Major Indexes and Max Drawdowns
Liz Ann Sonders
4. Foreign Investors are at Max U.S. Equities with Little Currency Hedging
Bloomberg
5. Household Wealth -$6T YTD
MarketWatch
6. Despite Volatility…10-Year Treasury is Back to March Levels
Bespoke
7. Americans Still Spending
WSJ
8. Asian Countries Opinion of China
Semafor
9. The Sinking Birth Rate in U.S.
Eric Finnigan
10. 6 Under-the-Radar Mindsets You Need to Excel
How to problem-solve at a higher level.
Key points:
Seek unsolved problems to enhance pattern recognition and problem-solving skills.
Innovate by sourcing knowledge from unexpected fields and perspectives.
Embrace abstraction to apply concepts to diverse challenges.
Via Psychology Today: The mindsets that separate extraordinary from average aren’t just about productivity or career advancement. They’re the same patterns that help you navigate life’s complexities.
While most self-improvement advice focuses on discipline and routine, these six under-the-radar mindsets develop something more fundamental: your capacity to learn, adapt, and discover what others miss. They’re about seeking novel challenges, embracing unexpected discoveries, and finding connections where others don’t look. Whether you’re wanting to excel at work, at self-management, at home, or at sports, these mindsets can help you be more innovative, resilient, and a better problem-solver.
1. You Need To Be Attracted To Problems You Haven’t Seen (Or Solved) Before
School and corporate life train us to feel most comfortable applying familiar formulas to familiar problems, again and again.
But to excel, you need to seek out problems you haven’t already seen and solved. That’s what grows your problem-solving skills and intuition.
Why it’s important for excellence: Knowledge comes from recognizing patterns — and you won’t encounter enough different patterns without exposing yourself to new kinds of problems.
2. You Need To Be Open To Learning Something More Important Than What You Set Out To Learn
The history of science and innovation is full of examples of unintentional discoveries that turned out to be more important than solving the intended target problem. For instance, French polymath Henri Poincaré expected his approximations would solve the problem he was working on. When they unexpectedly didn’t, it led him to develop chaos theory!
The problems we solve or discoveries we make along the way often end up being the most valuable part of the experience. This applies psychologically too.
Why it’s important for excellence: If you’re not open to this, you’ll miss your biggest discoveries.
3. You Have To Be Interested In Abstraction
Abstraction allows us to carry ideas like tools and apply them to new problems. For example, I was recently introduced to two paradoxes. First, the “Barber Paradox”: If there’s only one barber on an island who shaves everyone who doesn’t shave themselves, the question is: who shaves the barber?
Next, consider the “Baldness Problem”: If a person has no hair, they’re bald. With one hair, still bald. A few hairs? Bald. But when do they stop being bald? How many hairs is too many?
Within a week of learning about these ideas, I encountered situations these paradoxes helped me understand. They had seemed like curious puzzles at the time, but they turned out to be unexpectedly useful.
For example, the Baldness Problem might help you understand tensions arising from different people’s definitions of “clean.” The Barber Paradox can help you spot self-referential patterns of circular logic.
Why it’s important for excellence: Without abstraction, it’s hard to carry knowledge with you. We need this to spot patterns we wouldn’t otherwise recognize. Another example here.
4. You Have To Be Interested In A Variety Of Ways Of Solving A Problem
Imagine a non-curious person learning math. They learn one method for solving a specific type of problem—say quadratic equations—and once they’ve got it, they’re not interested in learning any others. Why would they do that? It seems inefficient, like flogging a dead horse.
Now, contrast that with a curious person who, after learning one method, sees a video showing nine other ways to solve the same problem and is excited to try them all.
Why it’s important for excellence: We need to build mental flexibility and the intuition that problems can generally be solved in many different ways. For example, if storming a castle’s main gate isn’t working, we step back and try to view the problem from a completely different angle. Shifting how we approach familiar problems helps us apply the same flexibility to more complex, unfamiliar ones.
Knowing multiple ways to solve a problem also builds resilience. If your usual method isn’t available, you’ll have other strategies. Again this applies psychologically. For example, if you’re injured and can’t exercise to relieve your stress, you need other methods.
5. You Have To Be Interested In Exploring The Long Tail Of Your Strengths
We often focus on obvious strengths that influence success, like a visionary entrepreneur or a runner with a high VO2 max.
However, at elite levels, everyone possesses these top strengths. What sets people apart is the long tail of their strengths, like fast recovery from hard workouts or high-carb fueling tolerance.
Why it’s important for excellence: Without understanding your full range of strengths, you won’t fully appreciate how to use them. It’s crucial to recognize them, see how they might be applied in unconventional ways, and be willing to experiment—even if it means stepping outside conventional methods.
6. You Have To Be Interested In Finding Knowledge In Unexpected Places
Imagine a running coach who only looks for new methods from other running coaches or running journals. Now, picture a coach who also seeks ideas from cycling. Or someone who explores models of recovery, mental toughness, and innovation from fields completely outside of sports. Then, think of a coach who disagrees with another on almost everything but decides to adopt an interesting method they come up with.
Why it’s important for excellence: We become more innovative when we’re open to learning from a wide variety of sources, not just from the usual places or our buddies.
Your Mindset Determines Your Approach to Challenges
Mindset shifts change your approach in ways that routine and discipline alone cannot. They push you beyond applying familiar formulas to familiar problems. While most people scramble for quick wins, your mindset can help you see deeper connections between knowledge sources that others miss. Excellence isn’t just working harder—it comes from sharpening your reasoning skills and problem-solving intuition.
If you’re interested in improving your reasoning further, try this guide.
My Q1 breakdown of the emerging opportunities, overlooked market inefficiencies, and key strategic shifts most investors didn’t see coming. Read it here.
2. China Large Cap Stocks Nowhere for 17 Years
Google Finance
3. China Pulling Private Investments in U.S.
The Kobeissi Letter
4. Gold Trading at 100x Silver
Bespoke
5. IWM Russell 2000 Small Cap Bullish Triangle
StockCharts
6. S&P Underperforming MSCI All World by Most in 32 Years
Lisa Abramowicz
7. MBA Mortgage Applications Falling
Barchart
8. Argentina Driving Free Trade.Imports Increased by 42%…Exports 10%
Perplexity
9. Generic Drugs 90% of Prescriptions in America
Sherwood
10. Work Ethic vs Discipline
Via Seth Godin: A solid work ethic drives someone to show up, even when they’d rather not. If there’s work on their desk, they’ll take it on.
Discipline, on the other hand, is the ability to say ‘no’ to free up focus and resources for the work that’s worth saying ‘yes’ to.
‘Sell America’ gathers steam. The dollar plunged to a three-year low, as a US trade war and threats against the Federal Reserve drove “Sell America” trades. President Donald Trump’s renewed push to fire the Fed chair, in particular, has undermined the haven status of US assets, resulting in a combined stock, currency, and bond weakness not seen since 1981, according to Sherwood News. Pension funds worldwide are reassessing whether to keep betting on the US, while Chinese state investors are pulling back from US private equity. Traders have flocked to gold, which hit a fresh record Monday, as well as German bonds. The “exorbitant privilege of the US,” Commerzbank’s chair said, “may not be carved in stone.”
Semafor
2. Gold ETF Flows Hit Record Level
Macro Charts
3. Swiss Franc Safety Currency Rallies to New Highs vs. Dollar Sell Off
StockCharts
4. Japanese Yen Rally
StockCharts
5. Dow Jones 50-day thru 200-day to Downside…Not Sure of History
StockCharts
6. Growth Vs. Value 2025
Robertson Stephens
7. Ethereum Bounce Yesterday…Hit Lowest Valuation in History vs. Bitcoin
Barchart
8. Ex-US Stocks See Record Volatility…ACWX Did Not Make New Highs on International Rally
From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright: International equities have held up better than US stocks during the most recent bout of global uncertainty. The iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index ETF (ACWX) fell into correction territory on April 4 with a 10% decline from its most recent high on March 19. The fund ultimately bottomed out 13.8% below that high on April 8. Over the next couple of weeks, ACWX advanced sharply to notch a 10% rally last Thursday, April 17, officially moving the fund out of correction territory.
The 20-day peak-to-trough move for ACWX was the shortest correction the broad international fund has seen since 2009, spanning less time than the previous 18 corrections. The nine-day rally was also the quickest ascent we have seen since 2011, outside of the two-day rally during COVID that saw ACWX climb out of correction territory in record time. Meanwhile, US stocks still sit in correction territory, despite the 9.5% upside movement seen from the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on April 9, the day after the recent low.
Voronoi
9. More Take Private Deals than IPOs
Private equity capitalized on take-private opportunities in the first quarter of 2025 as the market grappled with the new reality of tariffs and prolonged uncertainty around deals.
Take-private deal value increased 24.6% quarter-over-quarter, according to PitchBook’s Q1 2025 US PE Breakdown, with one big deal driving much of the action.
That prominent deal occurred in March, when consumer retail sector-focused investor Sycamore Partners acquired Walgreens in a transaction valued at $23.7 billion, the largest PE-backed take-private transaction over the last two years.
Through all this volatility, retail investors continue to buy the dip. They have not let up on buying.
Josh Schafer
2. New Highs in Account Openings at Interactive Brokers
March saw a record high in new account openings for Interactive Brokers. To be fair, maybe some of this was people opening accounts to try and short the market…
FinChat
3. China Central Bank Five Straight Months of Gold Buying
The Kobeissi Letter
4. How the Latest Sell-Off has Impacted the United States’ Share of Global Market Cap
Bespoke
5. Private Equity Stocks Down Double the S&P
Abnormal Returns
6. Miami Housing Correction
Nick Gerli
7. China Manufacturing Contracting Since 2015
China’s labour-intensive manufacturing sectors have seen broad-based declines in employment since around 2015, with textiles, clothing, and fur products experiencing the steepest drops.
Financial Times
8. Government Funding of Universities
Barron’s
9. Confidence in American Political Parties
Gallup
10. Earnings to Achieve Middle Class in Each American State
2. But Gold Still Very Small Share of ETF Holdings
Topdown Charts
3. 20% Pullbacks With and Without Recession
Charlie Bilello
4. Tesla 50-Day thru 200-Day to Downside…I am not sure of Bearish Crosses in TSLA
StockCharts
5. Tesla Bounced at Summer of 2024 Levels. That Level Goes Back to Mid-2023
StockCharts
6. Foreign Currencies vs. US Dollar Month to Date
Bloomberg
7. Foreign Tourism to US Falling Fast
Spencer Hakimian
8. APPS-Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger—98% of META Business
Sherwood News
9. Betting Line Recession 52%
The Irrelevant Investor
10. Seth Godin on How to Win an Argument with a Toddler
You can’t.
That’s because toddlers don’t understand what an argument is and aren’t interesting in having one.
Toddlers (which includes defensive bureaucrats, bullies, flat earthers, folks committed to a specific agenda and radio talk show hosts) may indicate that they’d like to have an argument, but they’re actually engaging in connection, noise, play acting or a chance to earn status. It can be fun to be in opposition, to harangue or even to use power to change someone’s position.
An argument, though, is an exchange of ideas that ought to surface insight and lead to a conclusion.
If you’re regularly having arguments with well-informed people of goodwill, you will probably ‘lose’ half of them–changing your mind based on what you’ve learned. If you’re not changing your mind, it’s likely you’re not actually having an argument (or you’re hanging out with the wrong people.) While it can be fun to change someone else’s position, it’s also a gift to learn enough to change ours.
The toddler puts on a show of having an argument, but they are holding a tantrum in reserve. If they ‘win’ the argument, no tantrum is needed. If they lose, they can tell themselves that they tried but the other person deserved the tantrum because they didn’t listen.
“Tell me about other strongly-held positions you’ve changed as the result of a discussion like this one…” is a direct way to start a conversation about the argument you’re proposing to have. “What sort of information would make it likely you could see this in a different way?”
It probably doesn’t pay to argue over things we have chosen to believe as part of our identity.
1. Asset Class Returns Rising vs. Falling US Dollar
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
2. Global Investors Moving Away from Overweight US
BofA Blog
3. Palantir $120 to $60�Back to $98
StockCharts
4. Rare Earth Imports from China
StockCharts
5. LVMH Luxury Goods Leader -32% from Highs
StockCharts
6. Zero-day Options are Fueling the Unprecedented Volatility on Wall Street amid Tariff Chaos
Key Points:
The trading volume of 0DTE options tied to the S&P 500 surged to 8.5 million in April, a 23% jump since the beginning of the year and accounting for roughly 7% of the total volume in U.S. option markets, according to data from JPMorgan.
These securities have become a popular tool for investors, big and small, to make a quick buck or hedge against sudden event-driven moves in the broader market.
Via CNBC: Wild intraday gyrations in stocks since liberation day have put investors more on edge than ever, and the popularity of zero-day-to-expiration options is partly to blame.
Zero-day-to-expiration options are cracts that expire the same day that they’re traded. The trading volume of 0DTE options tied to the S&P 500 surged to 8.5 million in April, a 23% jump since the beginning of the year and accounting for roughly 7% of the total volume in U.S. option markets, according to data from JPMorgan.
These securities have become a popular tool for investors, big and small, to make a quick buck or hedge against sudden event-driven moves in the broader market. Many cend that large volumes of these short-lived vehicles can exacerbate price swings in the market as dealers and market makers buy and sell underlying assets to balance their positions.
You’re seeing the zero data options market amplify and exaggerate almost up or down. If you go back 10, 20 years, you didn’t have these catalysts, said Jeff Kilburg, CEO and CIO of KKM Financial. It’s almost like gasoline on a fire when you see a move being exaggerated by the underlying options move.
7. Tariff vs. Semiconductors
Semafor
8. New Vehicle Sales Jumped 13% in March
Wolf Street
9. Apple Has Over 100 Suppliers in China
China Global South Project
10. The Power of Single-Tasking
Multi-tasking is ineffective. For productive work, time-boxing is better.
Key points:
Multi-taskers are less productive, because our brains have a cognitive bottleneck.
Time-boxing, time-blocking, and deep work productivity techniques are based on single-tasking.
Simple changes to your daily routine can help you make better use of your time by single-tasking.
Via Psychology Today: Distractions are everywhere. Emails pop up while you try to finish a task. You remember that your taxes are due soon, but you are busy trying to meet a deadline. It often feels like we should be doing a dozen things at the same time. The temptation is to multi-task answering your email while monitoring social media and listening to a presentation.
Our brains do not work that way. For example, a number of studies have looked at the cognitive performance of heavy (media) multi-taskers (Ophir, Nass, and Wagner 2009, Uncapher and Wagner 2018). Those are people used to working with lots of distractions, permanently on their smartphones while reading on the computer and listening to music. Heavy multi-taskers thought that they were more productive than light multi-taskers, but they were wrong. Multi-taskers are less productive.
The Myth of Multi-Tasking
The problem is that our brains cannot engage in two cognitive tasks at once (anything involving thinking). Research has shown that our minds have a cognitive bottleneck, first described by Pashler (1992). You essentially work by iterating a see-think-move loop. First, you see stuff (perception phase). Then, you process it, think about it, and decide what to do (cognition or central processing phase). Finally, you do something about what you have decided, maybe by typing a sentence or grabbing an object (motor phase). Alas, your brain can only engage in one cognition phase at once. You can monitor a waiting room while working on a report, and you can walk while thinking about a problem, but you cannot answer an email while you follow and actually understand a presentation.
When you try to multitask, your brain just queues the cognitive phases of the different tasks, never managing to engage in more than one at a time (for example, see Lee and Chabris, 2013). If you try to work on two cognitive tasks at the same time, your brain just switches back and forth between them, never really concentrating on either one and making mistakes. The meeting ends, you have missed half of what the speaker said, and there are mistakes in every email you sent.
Multi-tasking taxes your (working) memory, which is limited. A study by Colom et al (2010) found that people with larger working memory capacity are better at multitasking. But even those people would probably have been more productive by giving their undivided attention to each task, one after the other. One fMRI study worryingly suggested that multi-tasking for long periods of time might even result in permanent brain alterations, including lowered gray-matter density in the anterior cingulate cortex, a part of the brain associated with cognitive crol (Loh and Kanai, 2014).
Time-Boxing, Task-Batching, and Time-Blocking
If multi-tasking does not work, how can we be more effective? Productivity experts like Cal Newport speak about deep work and distraction-free environments. But you don’t need to completely reorganize your life to reap the benefits of that. You simply need to realize that single-tasking is often more effective.
Many modern time-management techniques are all about concentrating on a single task at a time. For example, time-boxing means setting a block (or box ) of time where you will work only on one specific task, making sure that you stop when the time is up. For instance, you schedule answering emails from 9 to 9:30 and from 16:00 to 16:30, but you stop (and close the email program) once the alarm clock sounds. Or you clean and organize your desk every Thursday from 16:30 to 17:00. Or you work on that report you need to write from 10:00 to 12:00, with every program in your computer shut down except for the word processor and whatever you actually need for the report.
If time-boxing seems too rigid for you, try task-batching. Instead of scheduling individual tasks, think about the different kinds of work and chores you do, and set longer time blocks for each kind of work. This will look very different depending on the kind of work you do. For instance, a writer might do research in the mornings and distraction-free writing in the afternoons. If you work on a schedule (9 to 5 or similar), talk to your supervisor about lumping together all the tasks that you can do alone and keeping all your meetings within two fixed days of the week.
Time-blocking is taking time-boxing to the extreme, and filling your entire (work) schedule with boxes for specific tasks so that you always know what you are supposed to do. This might sound daunting, but it can work if you approach it as a preliminary schedule and keep tweaking and adjusting it (maybe with a 15-minute review at the end of each day) until it clicks into place. For instance, if your 30-minute email slots keep spilling over, make them 45-minute slots.
Do Not Take It Too Far
Some advocates of time-blocking will tell you to time-block your entire life, including leisure and family time. That might not be a good idea for everybody. Research has shown that, if you schedule leisure activities the same way you schedule work, you will enjoy them less (Malkoc and Tonietto, 2019). If you treat having coffee with a friend the same way you treat a dentist’s appointment, you will end up seeing pleasurable activities as chores.
So where is the sweet spot? Start small. Look at those tasks that really get in the way, like answering emails or putting files away, and schedule them into time boxes. Move them around and adjust how long they are until you are comfortable with them, but remember that, when the boxes end, you stop. Then, look at specific tasks you have to complete, like writing a report or cleaning a room at home. Schedule time boxes for those, and keep experimenting. If you end up planning your entire work day (including domestic chores) and you are comfortable with that, go ahead. If you end up with only half of your week time-boxed, that is also OK. In any case, resist the temptation to go beyond your work and chores time. You are supposed to enjoy your free time, not turn it into work!
2. Updated: Foreigners Own 33% of U.S. Treasury Market
BofA Blog
3. International Stocks Outperforming for 2025 but Down in April EFA Developed Markets -5% April
StockCharts
StockCharts
4. Casino Stocks -50% High To Low
StockCharts
StockCharts
5. Volatility of Largest Company in World, AAPL
Talk about a roller coaster. After peaking just after Christmas, shares of AAPL lost more than a third of their value in less than four mhs and have since recovered more than 23% when you consider this morning’s gains. Volatility of this magnitude is notable when it occurs in just about any stock, but this is the largest company in the world we’re talking about. Are we really to believe that the company’s value has fluctuated by this magnitude in such a short period?
Bespoke Premium
With today’s 5% rally in the pre-market, AAPL is on track for its second straight daily gain of over 4%. Since the iPod was launched in 2001, the only other time the stock had a higher number of consecutive 4%+ daily moves was in October 2008 when there were three in a row. The current streak of back-to-back gains, if it holds, would be the first such streak since coming out of the Financial Crisis, but before that, they were common as the market cap was much lower.
Bespoke Premium
6. Due to Companies Like AAPL The U.S. has a Trade Surplus with China in Services
Liz Ann Sonders
7. 30-Year Mortgage Rate Flirting with 7% Again
Mortgage News Daily
8. Crypto Platform Kraken Rolls Out Stock Trading
Kraken unveils phased rollout for US stocks and ETF trading, shares plans for UK and European expansion.
Quick Take
Kraken now supports equities trading on its digital asset exchange, powered by a brokerage deal with Alpaca.
The firm teased the move in March after disclosing plans to acquire CFTC-regulated NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion.
Via The Block: San Francisco-based crypto exchange Kraken has added U.S. equities trading to its mobile and web platforms in a step forward for its offerings. The move will allow U.S. customers to manage crypto, stocks and Wall Street funds from a single account, similar to brokerages like Robinhood.
This expansion, executed in collaboration with licensed broker-dealer Alpaca, enables customers to trade over 11,000 U.S.-listed stocks and exchange-traded funds commission-free. More than half of the new offerings will include fractional investment, meaning buyers can purchase less than one whole share.
The program will initially be exclusive to select U.S. states with plans to expand nationwide as part of a phased rollout, according to an announcement on Monday. Additionally, Kraken has eyes on markets in the UK, Europe and Australia.
9. 600M Chinese Live on $140 a Mh
10. Countries with the Most High-Net Worth Individuals
1. XLK Tech ETF Holding 200-Week Moving Average on Long-Term Chart
StockCharts
2. Semiconductor ETF SMH-Same Story
StockCharts
3. $2 Trillion in Prime Brokerage Borrowing
Apollo
4. ROBO-Everyone Talking Robots…ETF New Lows
StockCharts
5. Same with Lithium ETF
StockCharts
6. Small Cap Discount Now in 4th Percentile
VettaFi
7. RIP to the IPO comeback…It Will Be 4 Years in a Row with Lower Number of IPOs
Via Business Insider: A few months ago, after years of abysmal performance, it looked like IPOs were finally set for a comeback. ServiceTitan, a software platform for general contractors, saw its stock soar by 35% after its debut in December. A bunch of hot companies were lined up to go public: the buy-now, pay-later lender Klarna, the ticket reseller StubHub, and the AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave. Silicon Valley, it seemed, was about to return to the good old days, when snazzy new startups could expect a huge payoff on Wall Street. “All signs were pointing to 2025 as the year when we would finally get some IPOs,” says Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital.
But now, the long-anticipated boom in IPOs has suddenly gone bust. CoreWeave’s public offering in March was the biggest tech IPO since 2021, but it was forced to price itself well below the expected range. And on Friday, StubHub and Klarna both delayed their planned IPOs, as Donald Trump’s tariffs sparked a huge slide in the stock market. IPO analysts at Renaissance now estimate that there could be as few as 150 deals this year, which would make 2025 the fourth straight down year for IPOs.
“This is going to shut down the IPO market,” Kennedy says. “The question is, for how long?”
StockCharts
8. Housing in South Update
New single-family houses for sale in the South, where Florida is by far the largest housing market, have ballooned past the Housing-Bust high since mid-2024 to a range between 290,000 to 304,000 houses for sale, with 296,000 new houses for sale in February, up by 72% from February 2019, according to Census Bureau data, which doesn’t provide state-level data, only regional data.
Those new houses are adding large amounts of additional supply to the surging inventories of existing homes. Homebuilders are the pros in this business, they know how to move the inventory: price cuts, building at lower price points, large-scale mortgage-rate buydowns, and incentives. And homeowners wishing to sell have to compete with this supply of new houses and increasingly aggressive builders.
Buyers are still on strike: In the South, pending sales of existing homes rose month-to-month in February, seasonally adjusted, but were down by 3.4% from the collapsed levels February last year, and booked the worst February in the data from the National Association of Realtors. Compared to 2019, pending sales plunged by 29%.
Concepts First: Learning the fundamental principles instead of just the immediate behaviors is the difference between being a cook and being a chef.
It Needs To Be Difficult: If you’re doing it right, you don’t feel like an expert; you feel like a person who has been mildly electrocuted by their own ambition. It’ll make you wonder if ignorance really is bliss. But an arduous process is what creates mastery.
Don’t Cram: Distributed practice is the sensible Volvo of studying techniques. You’re supposed to take things step-by-step, day after day, until the knowledge seeps into your brain and settles down like a retired couple moving to Florida. Your brain hates the quickie approach and prefers to be seduced gradually, like a Jane Austen character.
Feedback: It’s not “feedback”; it’s a forensic investigation into your incompetence. Find a mentor.
Retention: The “decay curve” is like a ski slope, except there’s no lodge at the bottom — just a pit of “Whoops, I forgot how to speak Spanish.” Overlearning is repetitive, it’s boring, it’s the linguistic equivalent of hitting your head against a wall until the wall starts to feel bad for you. But that’s how you make stuff stick. Wax on, wax off, Daniel-sa
3. 2008 GFC & 2020 Covid Only Periods with Similar Intra-Day Volatility
In yesterday’s session, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded in an incredible intraday range of 10.8%. Even crazier is that on Tuesday, the intraday range was 7.3% while Monday’s range was 8.6%! Since SPY was launched in 1993, the last three days represent just the sixth time that the ETF has had an intraday range of more than 5% for three or more days. The only periods with as many or more consecutive intraday ranges of at least 5% were in the fourth quarter of 2008 (four separate occurrences) and March 2020. These levels of sustained volatility are truly historic.
Bespoke
4. Every Pundit on Planet Arguing Whether Tariffs are Inflationary or Deflationary (demand destruction); CPI Today
CNBC
5. The Rent Lag in CPI Number
Charlie Bilello
6. 300m Chinese Moved to Middle Class Selling to U.S.
Semafor
7. Solar is Adding More Generation than Any Energy Sources
Sherwood News
8. TAN Solar ETF Straight Down…All-Time High $104 2021…$28 Last
StockCharts
9. American Poll on Illegal Immigrants
Food for Thought: Americans’ views on the deportation of immigrants living in the country illegally
The Daily Shot Brief
10. For Your Weekend Read: NVDA Stock Fell -90% Twice
The New King of Tech-How Jensen Huang built Nvidia into a nearly $3 trillion business’
Via The Atlantic: Another day, another new AI large language model that’s supposedly better than all previous ones. When I began writing this story, Elon Musk’s xAI had just released Grok 3, which the company says performs better than its competitors against a wide range of benchmarks. As I was revising the article, Anthropic released Claude 3.7 Sonnet, which it says outperforms Grok 3. And by the time you read this, who knows? Maybe an entirely new LLM will have appeared. In January, after all, the AI world was temporarily rocked by the release of a low-cost, high-performance LLM from China called DeepSeek-R1. A month later, people were already wondering when DeepSeek-R2 would come out.
The competition among LLMs may be hard to keep track of, but for Nvidia, the company that designs the computer chips—or graphics-processing units (GPUs)—that many of these large language models have been trained on, it’s also enormously lucrative. Nvidia, which, as of this writing, is the third-most-valuable company in the world (after Apple and Microsoft), was started three decades ago by engineers who wanted to make graphics cards for gamers. How it evolved into the company that is providing almost all the picks and shovels for the AI gold rush is the story at the core of Stephen Witt’s The Thinking Machine. Framed as a biography of Jensen Huang, the only CEO Nvidia has ever had, the book is also something more interesting and revealing: a window onto the intellectual, cultural, and economic ecosystem that has led to the emergence of superpowerful AI.
That ecosystem’s center, of course, is Silicon Valley, where Huang has spent most of his adult life. He was born in Taiwan, the son of a chemical engineer and a teacher. The family moved to Thailand when he was 5, and a few years later, his parents sent him and his older brother to the United States to escape political unrest. Eventually, his parents relocated to the U.S. as well, and Huang grew up in the suburbs of Portland, Oregon. In the early 1980s, after majoring in electrical engineering at Oregon State (which at the time didn’t offer a computer-science major), he got a job at Advanced Micro Devices. The company—then the poor cousin of the chip giant Intel—was headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, near US 101, the highway that runs from San Jose to Stanford. Since then, Huang’s career has unfolded within a five-mile radius of that office.
1. Russell 1000 Average Stock -30% from 52-Week High
Bespoke
2. Small Cap Healthcare Stocks Officially Flat for 7 Years
Kevin Gordon
3. The Biotech Bear Market in Small Cap…Disappearing IPO Market
Barron’s
4. High Yield Euro Bonds Spreads Widening
Bloomberg
5. Ethereum -55% YTD…Almost Back to 2023 Levels
StockCharts
6. AAPL -31% from Highs…Right on 200-Week Moving Average Long Term Chart
StockCharts
7. Amazon -32% High to Low
StockCharts
8. Jackson Hole Real Estate…$2m to $10m in 15 Years
WSJ
9. China’s Humanoid Robot Market
WSJ
10. Ten Million Less Viewers without Caitlin Clark
March Madness hit badly in Caitlin Clark’s absence as women’s Final Four TV ratings revealed.
Via MSN: UConn’s Final Four win over UCLA averaged 4.1 million viewers on Friday, which was a drop of over 10 million viewers compared to last season when the Huskies faced Iowa and Caitlin Clark.
When the Hawkeyes advanced to their second consecutive national championship game with a dramatic 71-69 win over UConn, it drew a record 14.2 million viewers. While the Huskies’ win over the Bruins in 2025 was the fifth-most watched women’s college basketball game ever on ESPN, the absence of Clark was felt.
“I feel like we’re just scratching the surface. If you would have told people this is where the WNBA is, five years ago … people probably wouldn’t have believed you, because they never thought that was possible.
“They never thought people would buy tickets; they never thought we’d play on ABC, never thought we’d be on ESPN. They never thought there could be sold out arenas or little kids wanting to wear WNBA jerseys.”
1. S&P Biggest 2 Day Decline Since 1950—What Does History Say?
Charlie Bilello
2. Forward P/E Correcting Fast…Ex-Mag 7 Closer to 15
Bloomberg
3. Last Week Higher Dollar Amount was Lost than 2008 Crisis
StockCharts
4. S&P 50day Still Above 200day…Break Today?
StockCharts
5. Crude Oil Fell -13.6% in 2 Days, THU and FRI
StockCharts
6. Ten Year Treasury Moved Back Above 4% Last Night
CNBC
7. China Tariffs…U.S. Does Not Export Much to China
Markets are freaking out about China retaliating hard against the United States, with a 34% tariff on all US goods. But in economic terms, this isn’t such a big deal: China barely imports from the US in the first place.
Chartbook
8. The Top in Globalization was in Motion
StockCharts
9. Another Contra Indicator?
Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout.
Summary:
Some hedge funds offload all stocks as selloff widens
Prime brokers say leverage falling, more selling coming
Sales triggered by margin calls rise in South Korea
Via Reuters: Some hedge funds say they are offloading all or most of their holdings of stocks as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war wipes out trillions of dollars of market value and forces them to curtail trading using borrowed cash.
In the three trading days following Trump’s announcement of broad reciprocal tariffs on almost all countries, stock markets across the world have plummeted, and bonds have become both a haven and a bet on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, turning on their head market assumptions before Trump took office.
The selloff on Wall Street has been vicious as investors that bet on U.S. exceptionalism and economic might stampede out of its markets.
The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab fell 10.5% over two days and lost about $5 trillion in market value. China’s CSI300 (.CSI300), opens new tab blue-chip index fell more than 5% on Monday, while the pan-European STOXX index (.STOXX), opens new tab is down nearly 12% from its March 3 all-time closing high and in correction territory.
William Xin, chairman of hedge fund Spring Mountain Pu Jiang Investment Management based in Shanghai, said he had liquidated all of his stock positions as the current geopolitical landscape is messy, and the risk of a global recession is rising.
2. Q1 2025: Everything Positive Except U.S. Stocks
Nasdaq
3. China Top 25 Export Countries
StockCharts
4. UNG Natural Gas ETF +25% YTD…Still Below 2024 Levels
StockCharts
5. Crude Oil -7.5% Pre-Market on Tariffs
CNBC
6. CAVA: -56% High-to-Low Correction
StockCharts
7. EuroZone Unemployment Rate Dropping
The unemployment rate hit a new low in February.
The Daily Shot
8. Working Class/Middle Class More Concerned About Hourly Wages
Chart from the Fed shows the Top 1% of U.S. earners now have more wealth than the entire middle class.
Zach Goldberg Jefferies
9. Mexico Border Crossings
Semafor
10. Mark Cuban’s Advice to His Kids on How to Be Successful Is 2 Simple Words
The research-backed advice doesn’t just applies to his kids, but to you too.
Via Inc: As a serial entrepreneur, former NBA team owner, long time Shark Tank co-star, and multibillionaire, Mark Cuban has certainly seen up close what it takes to make it big in life. When it comes to his three children, what advice does he give them on how to be successful?
You might think a guy with so much insider knowledge might point his kids to a particular professional niche or industry sector. But on a fun, free-wheeling recent episode of podcast Your Mom’s House, Cuban explained he doesn’t push his kids to take any particular path. Instead, his best advice to help them be successful is all of two words long: “Be curious.”
Mark Cuban’s top success advice to his kids.
The conversation kicks off when podcast co-host Robert Smith asks a perceptive and interesting question: When you’re super successful in a very public way like Cuban, how do you help your kids have their own identities and success beyond the shadow of their famous parent?
“It’s hard,” Cuban responds before walking through his thinking on setting his three teenage and young adult kids up for success and sanity. “You try to just let them be themselves. I try to not say you’ve got to go in this direction or that direction.”
Whether or not a young adult has wealthy or well-known parents, Cuban believes it’s OK for them to not know what they want to be when they grow up at first. That’s especially true these days when the world is changing so fast.
So if Cuban isn’t pushing a particular professional path, what is he pushing? Curiosity.
“Just be curious,” he advises his kids. “That’s what I try to get them to do.”
Research agrees with Cuban about the value of curiosity.
Cuban wants his kids to be continually learning and to view knowledge as strength to stockpile. He believes the route to lifelong learning and growth is curiosity. Turns out a ton of science agrees with him.
Curiosity, studies show, is one of the best predictors of how well a particular student will do in school, no matter what their IQ might be. The benefits of curiosity extend well beyond graduation. Other research links curiosity with increased memory, patience, empathy, creativity, and engagement.
Given all of those are traits that help people get ahead professionally, it stands to reason that more curious kids would tend to become more successful adults. And indeed studies show a link between higher curiosity, work, and better job performance.
That suggests Cuban’s efforts to inculcate curiosity in his kids will help them be successful in life independent of their billionaire dad. There is also evidence that focusing on curiosity will help his kids grow up to be happier too.
“Research has shown curiosity to be associated with higher levels of positive emotions, lower levels of anxiety, more satisfaction with life, and greater psychological well-being,” reports UC Berkeley’s Greater Good Science Center. “Of course, it may be, at least partially, that people who are already happier tend to be more curious, but since novelty makes us feel good, it seems likely that it goes the other direction as well.”
Nudge your kids to be more curious like Mark Cuban.
All of which suggests that Cuban is very much on to something in wanting his kids to be curious and hungry for learning. But how do you accomplish that?
Cuban doesn’t say so, but he’s clearly a great model of someone who is always exploring new possibilities and learning new things. You don’t have to be a billionaire to model curiosity to your kids. Explore the world and discuss and investigate new topics with your kids.
Actively talking up the benefits of curiosity as Cuban does can help too, according to science. According to a report from the BBC, Rachit Dubey, a cognitive scientist at Princeton University, found that reminding people of the usefulness of new knowledge can boost their curiosity when it’s lagging. Research suggests actively brainstorming questions you want answers to is another good way to become more curious.
Takeaways for entrepreneurs about curiosity.
If you’re a parent, consider being like Cuban and pushing your kids less toward a particular career path and more toward curiosity. You’ll probably help them get further and be happier if you value novelty and learning over certainty and consistency.
Second, curiosity is great for you too. Most of the science that shows curiosity is great for kids also applies to adults. Perhaps, you should also follow the tips above to nudge yourself toward greater curiosity.
Finally, curiosity helps people do better at work. As a business leader, is there anything you can do to nurture and support your team’s natural curiosity?
“Managers might consider giving their employees a little more independence … with various studies showing that a sense of autonomy increases curiosity,” the same BBC article suggests. “Where relevant, employers might also encourage workers to look beyond the narrow confines of their primary expertise.”
As Mark Cuban seems to have figured out, success usually isn’t about finding your lane early and sticking to it. It’s about being curious and continuously learning. That applies to his kids, but it applies to you too.
3. Europe 2025 Stock Rally—Euro Growth Stock ETF Never Made New Highs
StockCharts
4. Biotech Stock Bear Market…XBI -25% from Highs…Flat Return on 5-Year Basis
StockCharts
5. Charted: How Nvidia Makes Its $131 Billion in Revenue
Visual Capitalist
6. Reddit -57% High to Low…High Beta Stocks Huge Corrections
StockCharts
7. ETF frenzy hits fever pitch with 1,000 new launches forecast for 2025
Via Investment News: After breathtaking first quarter burst of 230 new products, industry experts are starting to see a thousand-launch year ahead driven by advisors and retail investors. This year’s whiplash headlines and thrashing in equity markets have done little to slow down the ETF industry.
While tariff and economic news have commanded investor attention, exchange-traded funds issuers have kept busy: they’ve churned out more than 230 new products in the US, a record for a first quarter in data going back to 2015. In comparison, the first three months of 2024 — a year which ended up seeing both a record 700-plus launches and more than $1 trillion in fund inflows — saw 174 brand-new ETFs, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Issuers, including a growing number of asset-managers or even research shops that are debuting products for the first time, are seeing opportunities in a space that’s been attracting massive amounts of cash from institutional and retail investors alike, mostly at the expense of mutual funds. If the breakneck speed of more than 75 new ETFs on average coming to market every month continues, over 900 new ETF products could debut this year. Some industry participants say that number could go even higher.
To Amrita Nandakumar, president of ETF sub-adviser Vident Asset Management — whose clients have debuted funds in recent days — it’s possible 1,000 new products launch this year.
8. Defense Spending by Country
ZeroHedge
9. U.S. Vehicle Sales by Country of Origin
Food for Thought: US vehicle sales by country of manufacture:
The Daily Shot
10. The Psychology of Motivation
Via Addicted2Success: No matter how worn out you might feel right now, a few small changes can give your motivation a serious boost. Below is a short list of motivation tips and ideas you can try. Pick what sounds doable and see how it goes. Little steps often have a bigger impact than you’d expect.
Create a “Daily Win” Ritual – Doesn’t matter if it’s writing down a quick list of accomplishments or celebrating a small triumph with a high-five in the mirror, acknowledging your wins keeps your spirit lifted. Even something as simple as completing your laundry or finishing a single work email counts. So count it!
Make Mornings Count – Establish a steady morning routine that gets you into gear. Maybe it’s two minutes of gentle stretching, a quick journal entry about your intentions for the day, or a little moment of positive thinking before your shower. A good start sets the tone for everything else.
Use “Odd Moments” Wisely – Try to maximize random moments—like waiting for your coffee to brew or standing in a line—by reviewing mini-goals or reminding yourself of something you’re aiming for. This helps keep your brain engaged with your goal setting plan.
Rotate Your Rewards – Similar to how you might switch playlists to stay interested, change up your rewards to keep them fresh. Maybe treat yourself to a healthy snack one day and allow yourself an extra 15-minute break the next time you hit a milestone.
Lean on Productivity Apps – Digital tools can be lifesavers. It might be a scheduling app, a note-taking system, or an AI program that helps you plan tasks. You can even ask AI for ideas on making your day more productive. The key is to pick tools that fit your style instead of complicating your routine.
Build an Encouraging Network – Surround yourself with people who uplift your spirits. This can mean positive co-workers, motivational podcasts, or even online communities that share helpful advice. Seeing others’ commitment to self discipline often encourages you to stay true to your own goals.
Keep Tracking Progress – Regularly check how far you’ve come. This doesn’t need to be an elaborate spreadsheet—just a quick note of tasks completed or personal milestones reached. Watching your progress can keep your drive alive, especially on days when you doubt yourself.
Space Out Your Responsibilities – Give yourself mini-breaks between tasks to reduce the chance of burnout. Go for a short walk, stretch your legs, or sip some water while gazing out a window. These micro-pauses clear your mind and get you ready for the next challenge.
1. U.S. Stock Investors Bought a Record Amount of American Stock ETFs in Q1
Equity ETF flows. “US-focused ETF inflows have obliterated any other Q1 with +$137b, which is 85% of all flows. Ex-US ETF haul as actually been below avg. While headlines, HFs talk ‘exiting’ the US, ETF investors are on a buying spree for better or worse.”
Daily Chartbook
2. Tech ETF XLK at Key Levels. Back to Early March Lows…50-Day Touching 200-Day to Downside
StockCharts
3. KWEB Chinese Tech vs. XLK U.S. Tech…Big Reversal in 2025
StockCharts
4. History of Weak Q1 Tech Stocks
NDR
5. Sign of Slowing Speculation…Gamestop Bitcoin Reserve Announcement…Stock Down
StockCharts
6. Bitcoin 5 Lower Highs…Holding Above 200-Day
StockCharts
7. Europe Rally….Euro Small Caps Still Below 2024 Highs
StockCharts
8. Metals Outperformance Over S&P One-Year
Bespoke
9. Corporate Large Caps Buy Up Venture Start Ups
Sherwood
10. The Keys to Happiness, According to the World Happiness Report
Via Psychology Today: A lot of research on happiness and subjective well-being has been done over the last fifty years or so. It seems like everyone wants to determine the exact formula for joy. While there is never going to be a specific prescription for attaining happiness, there are some important findings that can be guidelines for us. Here are five prerequisites for experiencing happiness in life:
Human beings need relationships to enjoy optimum well-being and happiness. This is a simple truth: We are born with a strong drive to establish connections with others. While many of us think that we will be happy when we find “true love,” or whatever we feel approximates that, it is not generlly romantic relationships that provide what we require for happiness. Simply having good friends who encourage and support you will contribute just as much to your overall feelings of happiness and contentment.
Being kind to others is essential to finding a sense of personal happiness. Our human brains are wired so that we feel joy when we behave in altruistic ways. Just making plans to do something nice for others – whether it’s throwing a party for a friend, volunteering for a worthy cause, or planning a monetary donation – will give you a boost and generate a sense of satisfaction and well-being.
Acknowledging the abundance of your own life, no matter how austere or extravagant it might be, and experiencing gratitude for people, experiences, and things also positively contribute to a sense of well-being. When people focus on scarcity or what is lacking, negative emotions bubble up, like envy, discontent, and resentment.
Finding a sense of meaning and purpose in your pursuits in life is necessary for contentment and happiness. Believing that you are contributing to something beyond yourself and being a part of something larger than your individual existence are also necessary to experience a feeling of peace that is a part of happiness.
Making healthy lifestyle choices in terms of your basic needs – sleep, nutrition, and exercise – also contributes to your happiness in life. Studies show that regular exercise – even just a daily walk – is highly effective in reducing depression. Contemplative activities, such as yoga, meditation, and reflection, have also been proven to reduce stress and promote well-being. And while many people think a good night’s sleep is “optional,” research shows that poor sleeping habits lead to greater stress, increased risk for cardiovascular illness, and even weight gain.
2. One Stock that Held Its Post-Election Rally…Fannie Mae: +400% over 6 Months
StockCharts
3. Large Bitcoin Traders are Buying
Bitcoin whales. “The 30D position change for whales shows they’ve added +129K BTC since March 11 – with momentum picking up sharply over the past 2 days. That’s the largest accumulation rate since late August 2024, signaling growing confidence from large players.”
Glassnode via DailyChartBook
4. Put Software on Long List of Growth Sub-Sector Charts that Mirror below, pulled back to 2+ Year Trendline
StockCharts
5. Before Yesterday Mag 7 Big Bounce
It’s been a good couple of days for the Magnificent 7 stocks.
The Daily Shot
6. Interesting…Middle Class Shrink Due to More High Class Earners?
The Irrelevant Investor
7. GDP of Ukraine and Its Allies Vs. Russia
Professor Galloway
8. 700 Basketball Players Entered Transfer Portal Day 1…Private Lending Coming to College Sports
Via PitchBooK: Pitch Book Private credit lenders, usually known for financing loans to companies, may be recruited for a new role: funding athletic programs as the NCAA changes rules on compensating players.
Until now, US colleges have enjoyed an unusual advantage in their business models by not having to pay athletes.
That’s set to change. Final approval of a $2.8 billion antitrust lawsuit is imminent, paving the way for college athletics programs to share revenue with their players. The rule change could mean up to $20.5 million of direct payments to student-athletes per school, per year, starting in the 2025-2026 academic year.
Early in the quarter
College athletics programs have historically spent more than they have brought in. The new balance sheet line item on the sports programs’ balance sheets will dramatically increase capital needs that tuition increases and alumni donations can’t solve.
According to lenders, advisors, and law firms to whom LCD spoke, banks will not be able to meet the additional financing needs. What’s more, a dearth of sponsor-backed M&A and buyouts makes these opportunities more enticing for lenders with capital to put to work.
Several private credit providers told LCD they’ve already begun holding early conversations with universities and conferences about forming new lending relationships.
It’s likely that schools will need to demonstrate additional revenue streams to support any potential incoming capital infusions to offset normal operational deficits.
Randall Boe, senior counsel at Akin Gump and former commissioner of Arena Football League, says that private credit will prioritize transactions that fund projects and renovations that will generate new streams of revenue and help schools transition to the new business models necessitated by changes in the college sports landscape.
4. Another 25th Anniversary of Internet Bubble Chart: Up 15% in a Month then -50% from Highs
Bespoke
5. Investors Remain Concerned About Inflation
The Irrelevant Investor
6. Buffered ETFS
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
7. China and U.S. Buying 80% of Venezuelan Crude
Kpler
8. The U.S. has Run a Trade Deficit Every Year Since the 1970’s
Capital Group
9. Navy Next Big Ship Exceeds Budget by $1.3 Billion…10% Done After 2.5 Years
Navy Frigate USS Constellation Only 10 Percent Done after 2.5 Years.
Via 1945: Physical construction began on the United States Navy USS Constellation in the middle of 2022. After over two and a half years, the ship is only 10 percent complete, according to a person familiar with the timeline.
At this pace, including the two years of design development before the building began, the ship will only be complete after nine years.
This span is twice the number of years that it would take an Italian shipyard to build the naval vessel.
The US Navy and the ship’s designers based the design of the Constellation on Italy’s Fincantieri.
The Constellation is the first of what is supposed to be a line of 20 ships.
However, even though it is being built to the original Italian design specifications, the Constellation is now projected to exceed the budgeted initial cost estimate of $1.3 billion.
Constellation was expected to be ready for commissioning in 2026. The Navy set a short timeframe for the ship’s launch because it chose a proven design, which was supposed to accelerate the production cycle.
Construction of the Constellation has presented production cycle headaches due to an extended construction time of twice the expected time to complete the Constellation, cost overruns of nearly 50 percent, problems with rising steel costs, and numerous other factors.
10. Global Developments: Military spending is beginning to rise after a prolonged period of decline
QQQ vs. KWEB. Chinese Tech stocks (using $KWEB as our proxy) recently beat the Nasdaq 100 by 2 standard deviations over the prior year. When $QQQ has been this oversold in the past, it went on to outperform by strong-double digits and with a 100% win rate over the next year.
DataTrek
2. Small Cap Russell 2000 50-Day Thru 200day to Downside…History Not Bearish?
MarketWatch
3. Micro-Cap Stocks Never Made It Back to 2024 Highs
StockCharts
4. Retail Investors Buying TSLA Stock the Entire Way Down…$8B Over 13 Sessions
JPMorgan analyst Emma Wu told clients that the current level of retail enthusiasm for Tesla is unlike anything seen in the last ten years. This surge in retail buying comes as the stock remains halved from its December high of around $479. Weighing on shares are concerns over a potential slowdown in electric vehicle deliveries during the first quarter, along with mounting backlash from radical leftist nonprofits seeking to destroy the company and investors.
The global equity derivatives strategist told clients that retail net buying flows into Tesla topped $8 billion over the last 13 consecutive sessions through Thursday. This was the longest buying streaks for Tesla via JPM data dating back to 2015.
ZeroHedge
5. SMH Semiconductor ETF Back to Jan 2024 Levels
StockCharts
6. Crypto/Options Trader HOOD -45% Correction Top to Bottom
StockCharts
7. Inflation Still Dominating Voters’ Mindset….”Global Trade” Dead Last in List of Issues
People care about prices. They don’t care about global trade.
Bloomberg
8. Dividend Stocks Outperforming 2025—See Big Gap Underperformance Post Covid vs. Historical
Bespoke
9. Reminder: U.S. Household Balance Sheets are in Excellent Shape
The Irrelevant Investor
10. How to Turn Regret Into Purpose
From Psychology Today: A life lesson from the dying: Regret can be a powerful teacher.
KEY POINTS
You don’t find purpose—you build it using regrets as anchors for growth and meaning.
Inaction regrets are missed opportunities; take steps now to prevent future regret.
Action regrets can’t be undone, but they can be transformed into purpose through learning and service.
Reflect on your regrets today to create a life you won’t look back on with sorrow.
If you feel lost when it comes to purpose, you’re not alone. Many of us spend years searching for that one big thing that will make our lives feel meaningful.
But here’s the truth: You don’t find your purpose—you build it. Purpose isn’t a lightning bolt of revelation; it’s a structure we create, brick by brick, using the anchors, inklings, and beckonings that light us up.
As a hospice doctor, I sit with people at the end of their lives, and I’ve learned an important lesson from them: Regret is a powerful teacher. The saddest thing about regret for the dying is that, by the time they acknowledge it, they no longer have the agency, energy, or time to turn those regrets into something meaningful.
But you and I? We still do.
The Two Types of Regret
Understanding regret is the first step in using it as a tool for purpose. As Daniel Pink explores in his work on regret, there are two primary types: inaction regrets (things we never did) and action regrets (things we did but wish we hadn’t).
Inaction Regrets: The Things We Never Did
Inaction regrets are often the easier ones to spot. They are the untraveled roads, the missed opportunities, the dreams left unexplored. And I am a perfect example of this.
Ten years ago, I carried a deep regret: I had never traditionally published a book. Writing had always been a passion, but I never felt like I had the time, courage, or energy to pursue it seriously. Working with dying patients, I often asked myself: If I were in their shoes, what would I regret never doing?
For me, the answer was clear—I would regret never becoming a published author. This realization turned my inaction regret into a purpose anchor. Instead of just feeling bad about it, I used that regret as motivation to take action. I got an agent, wrote a manuscript, and eventually published my book. That’s the power of recognizing inaction regret: it can become the foundation upon which we build a meaningful life.
Action Regrets: The Things We Did but Wish We Hadn’t
Action regrets are more complicated because they involve mistakes we’ve made. They are the choices we look back on with sorrow, embarasment or guilt. Unlike inaction regrets, they can’t be undone.
I once took care of a patient who, as a young woman, had been texting while driving and caused a car accident that severely injured another person. The guilt stayed with her for the rest of her life, an ever-present burden. She deeply regretted that one decision, and no matter how much she wished she could, she could never undo it.
So how do we turn action regrets into purpose?
For her, the answer was education. She couldn’t erase the past, but she could prevent others from making the same mistake. She became a national speaker on the dangers of texting and driving, using her own painful experience to teach and protect others. In doing so, she transformed her action regret into a purpose anchor.
Turning Regret into Purpose
Both types of regret—inaction and action—have the potential to serve as powerful guides. They show us what matters, what we wish we had done differently, and where we can create meaning moving forward.
So, what about you? Ask yourself:
What are the things you regret not doing?
What are the actions you regret taking?
How can you build a life of purpose around those regrets?
If you regret not traveling, can you start prioritizing experiences over possessions? If you regret not expressing love to someone, can you start showing up more fully in your relationships? If you regret hurting someone, can you work toward making amends or helping others in a similar situation?
These reflections aren’t meant to fill you with guilt. They are meant to empower you. Unlike my hospice patients, you still have time. You can make different choices, shift your priorities, and turn regret into action.
What Will You Regret on Your Deathbed?
One day, you will be at the end of your life. When that time comes, will you look back with a sense of fulfillment, knowing you used your regrets as fuel for a meaningful life? Or will you be haunted by all the things you never did, never said, and never became?
The good news is that you still have a choice. Regret doesn’t have to be an anchor that weighs you down—it can be the foundation upon which you build a life of deep purpose.
So, what will you do today to ensure that, when your time comes, regret isn’t the final chapter of your story?
1. History of Down -10%+ Years…You Need Something Bad to Happen
Ryan Detrick
2. Mag 7 2025 are All in the Red
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
3. Since First Rate Cut Mag 7 is Still Outperforming -But Gap is Closing Fast
Liz Ann Sonders
4. QQQ Pulled Back to Blue: 2+ Year Trend Line
StockCharts
5. Russell 2000 Small Cap Also Pulled Back to Big Trend Line…200 Week Moving Average
StockCharts
6. Emerging Markets and China Have Low Gold Reserves vs. Developed
Spencer Hakimian
7. The City of L.A. is Facing a $1B Deficit
Bloomberg
8. The NVDA Rubin Chip
Chartr via Sherwood
9. BYD Chinese EV Car Company Building a 50 Square Mile Factory
Via The Sun: STAGGERING drone footage shows the scale of the vast Chinese electric vehicle mega factory that is being built.
The sprawling BYD factory in Zhengzhou, in China’s Henan province, is set to be bigger than a major US city and has its own football ground.
New China-built electric vehicles of the company BYD, are seen parked in the port of Zeebrugge
Aerial footage of the factory and the land it is expanding onto shows masses of sleek production buildings, high rise blocks, a football pitch and tennis courts all separated by roads.
As the drone continues to cover the site, it shows the vast expanse where work is beginning on building new parts of the facility, as well as what looks like a small village where workers live.
At the back of that settlement is more land earmarked for construction work.
The site is set to dwarf rival Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada that covers 4.5 square miles.
When completed, the factory, which is being built in eight phases, is set to cover 32,000 acres or 50 square miles.
For comparison, San Francisco in California is 46.9 square miles.
Phases five to eight are now underway, majorly expanding the current factory.
According to reports, BYD as a whole has over 900,000 employees and will add over 200,000 more in the next three months.
10. Waves and Tides
From Seth Godin’s Blog: It’s easy to be distracted by the wave that’s crashing on the shore.
On the other hand, the tide is inexorable. It’s the long-term trend, the one that is quietly happening, over time.
Sometimes, a big wave comes along and we lose our focus. It’s urgent.
But expecting and working with the tide pays off. Waves burn out.
1. Huge Drop In U.S. Stock Allocation…Contra Indicator
Macro Charts
2. We are Above Bearish Sentiment Indicators from 2009. Does It Fell Like 2009?
Bespoke Investment Group
3. Past “Policy Uncertainty” Has Been Buy Signal for Stocks
Bull & Baird
4. Gold and Uncertainty
Abnormal Returns
5. Silver +14% Year to Date…$48.70 was 25-Year High 2011
StockCharts
6. Rolling 2- month Performance International vs. U.S. was Biggest Since 2008
Charlie Bilello
7. Airline Subsector vs. S&P 2025
Cresset Capital
8. Most New APPS Bomb
In the increasingly competitive battle for space on our precious home screens, most apps never even come close to getting enough subscribers to cover their costs.
According to the 2025 State Of Subscription Apps report from RevenueCat, published last week, just a handful of apps now dominate a huge share of users’ screen time. According to the research, the top 5% of newly launched apps make over 400x more in their first two years (~$8,888) than the bottom 25% (~$19).
The report also outlined that only 19% of new apps across all categories generated $1,000 in monthly recurring revenue within two years of launch, implying that 81% failed to hit that threshold. After this, the drop-off is steep, with a large portion of apps failing to meet each consecutive monetary milestone. At the upper end, only 5% of all new apps reached $10,000 in revenue.
Chartr via Sherwood
9. Retirement Fears
Food for Thought: Top retirement fears among US workers:
Daily Shot Brief
10. Improve Your Strategic Thinking
I’ve seen too many leaders get stuck in day-to-day operations and lose sight of the larger picture.
Via Inc: When scaling my company, I learned that strategy wasn’t about having a brilliant idea but about making intelligent, well-informed decisions over time. As an Inc. 500 CEO and now as a strategic coach, I’ve seen too many leaders get stuck in day-to-day operations and lose sight of the larger picture.
The ability to think strategically and make strong decisions separates successful companies from those that stagnate. The good news? Strategic thinking is a skill that can be developed. Here’s how.
1. Zoom out before you zoom in
Many leaders dive into execution without considering the bigger picture. Before making key decisions, assess the industry trends, customer demands, and competitive shifts. A great way to do this is by using frameworks like SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats). But don’t stop there—combine multiple frameworks to get a fuller picture.
Consider using Porter’s Five Forces to analyze competitive dynamics or the PESTLE framework to evaluate external factors. I’ve found that leaders who regularly step back to assess the landscape make better choices and avoid costly missteps. One CEO I coached saved millions by spotting an emerging technology trend during a quarterly strategy review that would have made their planned expansion ob
2. Ask better questions
Strong strategic thinking starts with asking the right questions. Instead of rushing to solutions, challenge assumptions. Ask, “What are we assuming?” or “What would have to be true for this to work?” The best leaders encourage debate and seek out different perspectives. Create a culture where team members feel safe challenging ideas, regardless of hierarchy.
The most valuable insights often come from front-line employees who interact with customers daily. Consider implementing regular strategy meetings where team members from different departments share perspectives and challenge conventional wisdom. Questioning the status quo opens the door to new opportunities and avoids blind spots.
3. Embrace second-order thinking
Short-term wins can create long-term setbacks. Second-order thinking—asking, “And then what?”—helps leaders anticipate future consequences. Cutting costs by reducing staff might improve short-term margins but could lower team morale and productivity later. I’ve seen companies lose key talent and market share because they failed to consider the ripple effects of their decisions.
Create decision trees to map out potential consequences and scenarios. Consider the immediate impact and how competitors, customers, and employees might react. Before making decisions, think through their long-term implications and whether they align with your bigger goals.
4. Make time for deep work
Strategic thinking requires focus, but most leaders’ calendars are packed with meetings and urgent tasks. If you don’t carve out time for deep thinking, you’ll always be reacting instead of planning. Block out a few hours each week for strategic reflection.
The best CEOs I work with treat this time as non-negotiable. They create “think weeks” like Bill Gates or monthly strategy days to disconnect from daily operations. Use this time to read industry reports, analyze competitive moves, and envision different futures for your business. Consider keeping a strategic journal to track your thoughts and patterns over time. Unplug, analyze trends, and think long-term.
5. Test, learn, and adapt
No strategy is perfect from the start. The best leaders continuously test their ideas, gather feedback, and adjust. Instead of committing all your resources upfront, run small experiments. Try a limited product launch, test a new sales approach, or pilot a new process. Set clear success metrics and timelines for these experiments.
One technology company I advised saved substantial resources by testing their new feature with a small user group first, allowing them to identify and fix critical issues before a full launch. Create feedback loops that bring in customer insights, market data, and team input. Learning from real-world data allows you to refine your strategy and stay adaptable.
The best leaders aren’t just problem-solvers; they’re opportunity-finders. They understand that strategic thinking is a muscle that needs regular exercise. Adopting these habits and creating structures supporting strategic reflection will strengthen your decision-making capabilities and build a more resilient organization.
Remember, strategy isn’t a one-time exercise—it’s an ongoing process of observation, analysis, and adaptation.
1. KWEB China Internet Stock ETF Breaks Above David Tepper “Go Big on China” Call. Yesterday-KWEB +4% vs. MAG 7 -1%
StockCharts
2. China vs. India Chart…China Big Move Back After Trailing India for 2 Year. 2025: FXI +28% vs. INDA -7%
StockCharts
3. VIX Volatility Index Never Broke Out of 2 Year Low Sideways Pattern
StockCharts
4. Gas Prices Down 4 Weeks in a Row…Crude Oil Breaking to 2-Year Lows
StockCharts
5. Global Gold Market Capitalization Surpasses $20 Trillion in 2025
Visual Capitalist
6. Largest 4-Week Inflow to European Equities in 10 Years
BofA Global Research
7. China’s EVs Increasing Sales Around the World
Bloomberg
8. Mortgage Refi Rejection Rate???
Bespoke Premium
9. Wait Until American Baby Boomers Leave Their Kids $80 Trillion
Via CNBC: Ferrari car buyers are getting younger. CEO says 40% of new clients are now under 40.
Key Points
Ferraris are becoming increasingly popular among younger buyers, with the CEO of the luxury automaker revealing that 40% of new buyers are now under the age of 40.
Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore, Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna said Ferrari remains on track for the landmark unveiling of its first fully electric car on Oct. 9.
The Maranello-based carmaker is well known for keeping a tight rein on the production of its cars, seeking to maintain the brand’s promise of exclusivity.
StockCharts
10. Where Should the Government Play a Large Role? Here is Where Americans Agree
Magnificent 7 stocks fell into bear market territory on Monday amid economic concerns.
The Daily Shot
2. Mag 7 vs. Rest of S&P 2025
Individual investors snapped up shares of an exchange-traded fund tied to the “Magnificent Seven” group of technology megacap stocks during the recent nosedive in the U.S. stock market, according to data on Wednesday. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven attracted a net $50 million of inflows in the four trading days ended on Tuesday, according to market analysis firm VettaFi. The inflows marked a sharp end to a five-week period during which the $1.68 billion fund lost $163 million in assets.
Reuters
3. Amazon Hits -20% from Highs…Closes Below 200-Day
StockCharts
4. Vanguard Europe vs. SPY 2025
StockCharts
5. Economic Policy Uncertainty Higher than 2008 GFC
Unio Capital
6. Follow Up From Yesterday’s Chart on Sentiment
Retail investor sentiment (III). There have only been 2 other instances were the % of bulls was <20 for 3 consecutive weeks: Dec’88 and Apr’22.
SentimenTrader
7. Small Cap Back to Lows
Bespoke
8. Walmart -19% Close to 200-Day
StockCharts
9. COST -17% Closes Below 200-Day
StockCharts
10. I’m a psychologist who studies couples—if you say ‘yes’ to these 4 questions, your relationship is stronger than most
Via TherapyTips: Low points are inevitable in any relationship; no two people can see eye to eye all the time. But when push comes to shove, how do you know if your relationship has the foundation to endure?
As a psychologist who studies relationships, I’ve come to learn that thriving relationships often share some key traits.
Here are four simple questions that can determine longevity of your connection. If your answers are all “yes,” you’re likely on solid ground.
1. If you weren’t a couple, would you still be close friends?
Every healthy relationship should be grounded upon a foundation of friendship. Imagine your partner as just a friend: Would you still want to spend time with them, laugh with them and turn to them for support?
Couples who say “yes” to this understand that relationships require a lot more than just passion and commitment. Studies even show that if like your partner as a person, your bond will be much harder to break.
On the other hand, some couples stay together out of habit, fear of starting over or because they feel they’ve already invested too much in the relationship to let it go. This is what keeps people in unhappy relationships for years.
2. Do you like who you are when you’re around your partner?
Your life partner should bring out the best in you. Does having them in your life make you feel supported, loved and inspired to grow? Or do you feel stifled, diminished and drained?
Truly great relationships often reflect what’s called the “Michelangelo effect.” Just like the artist shaped raw stone into breathtaking sculptures, healthy partners will “sculpt” each other into better versions of themselves. They encourage your goals, cheer on your successes and remind you of your worth even on hard days.
Unhealthy relationships can have the opposite effect. If being around your partner makes you feel small, criticized or unsure of yourself, it’s worth reflecting on why. The way you feel when you’re around your partner is often one of the biggest clues about how healthy your relationship is.
3. If you knew that your partner will never change, would you still want to be with them?
No one is perfect, but ignoring flaws isn’t really what love is about. Rather, we all have to learn that those imperfections aren’t what define your partner, nor your relationship. Couples in healthy relationships don’t rely on fantasies of how the other person could change — they focus on loving each other as they are presently.
This doesn’t mean you should tolerate toxic behavior. But it does mean accepting the small fumbles and imperfections that make your partner human, like forgetting to pick up their socks once in a while or telling the same joke over and over.
If you can genuinely say you’d choose your partner if they stayed exactly as they are, warts and all, then you’ve likely built a relationship that can stand the test of time.
4. When you have good news, is your partner the first person you want to tell?
One of the clearest signs of a strong relationship is that your partner isn’t just there for the hard times — they’re also your go-to person for sharing your wins. When you get exciting news, do you instinctively reach for your phone to call them? Do you look forward to celebrating your successes together?
Psychologists call this “capitalization,” and research shows that couples who actively share and celebrate each other’s good news tend to have stronger, happier relationships. It builds a sense of partnership and camaraderie — one that reinforces that your joys are their joys, too.
3. Bitcoin Miner Riot Almost Cut in Half Post Election
StockCharts
4. Russian Gas Exports to EU -90%…Gazprom Stock $300B Market Cap to $42B
Reuters
5. Natural Gas is 43% of Electricity Generation…+140% in 12 Months
Wolfstreet
6. Inflation Breakdown from CPI Number
yahoo!Finance
7. “Affordable Homes” Have Saw the Biggest Price Increases
Axios
8. Housing Prices During A Recession
Axios
9. 80% Of Coming Wealth Transfer Will Go to Women
Semafor
10. 3 Steps for Conducting an Exit Interview
Via Success Leadership Lab: I’ve been there—sitting through an exit interview, the final conversation that officially closes the door on your job. My eyes were swollen, and a lump formed in my throat as the interviewer turned on her camera. I wasn’t sure what to expect, what questions might come or why the meeting had appeared so quickly on my calendar. I had never had one before.
As the interview began, she explained that it was company policy to ask me a series of survey questions, and I was asked to answer them honestly. I nodded, and the survey began. I didn’t want to be there—I didn’t want to lose my job two days before Christmas. But I agreed, hoping that my answers might improve the company in some way.
That experience stayed with me. Since then, I’ve often wondered if there’s a better way to conduct exit interviews. Is there a right or wrong way to do them?
All companies are different, but there are ways to make exit interviews a little better for those involved. Let’s take a look at a few.
Conduct exit interviews face-to-face
According to Deborah McGee, president and CEO of PZI Group, a consultancy focused on human resources outsourcing, one of the biggest mistakes companies make is skipping exit interviews altogether.
“It’s a shame because I think they lose out on valuable information,” she says. “It’s an opportunity for the employee to discuss issues that they might have felt… or things that possibly the company could have done better.”
McGee also emphasized that exit interviews should be conducted by human resources. This helps HR see what their internal managers are doing, rather than by sending a survey to an employee’s inbox. “It should be done face to face. If somebody’s leaving your organization, you should take the time to at least spend five [or] 10 minutes with them,” she says.
Timing is another key factor. It’s important not to conduct an exit interview too early, as the employee still needs to work there, McGee explains.
At McGee’s company, she prefers to schedule exit interviews two days before the employee’s final day. This gives them enough time to share their thoughts while also allowing them to say their goodbyes and participate in farewell activities, like a final lunch.
The goal is to ensure that they leave on a positive note and maintain a good relationship with both their colleagues and the company culture, she says.
Watch what questions you ask
When conducting an exit interview, McGee suggests asking questions like, “‘What did you like about your position?’” She explains that it’s important to remember that nobody hates everything about their job.
Other questions to consider include, “What would you have done differently if you’d had the opportunity?” and “Would you consider coming back to work for this organization?”
McGee also recommends steering clear of certain questions, such as, “What didn’t you like about your manager?” or “Was there anyone in particular you had issues with?” While departing employees might choose to share these details, McGee stresses that the interview shouldn’t feel like a witch hunt.
While HR should have a guide or template with questions to ask, it should serve as just that: a guide. Interviewers should take the time to understand the individual they’re interviewing—rather than simply reading off a list of survey questions—and also remind them where their efforts were valued.
“Especially if they’re not leaving by choice, then praise them for what they did for the company,” McGee says.
Don’t take feedback personally
Exit interviews can be uncomfortable on both ends, especially if the interviewee is hostile or upset, McGee says. It’s important to recognize that the employee may be facing difficult circumstances, such as losing their insurance.
“They’re in a really hard spot that makes it uncomfortable,” she explains.
McGee also emphasizes that interviewers should avoid taking negative feedback personally. “It will feel personal because it’s person to person,” she says, but it shouldn’t be taken that way.
Overall, an exit interview should be just as important as onboarding since it represents the employee’s final experience with the company. Because of this, it’s important to understand the purpose behind the exit interview and ensure that it’s handled respectfully, McGee says.
What to do before getting to an exit interview
Although exit interviews often occur due to layoffs, they can also happen when employees choose to leave for better opportunities. Before it gets to that point, it can be helpful to check in with your employees while they’re still working for your company.
“We actually do stay interviews,” McGee says. After six months or more, she asks her employees, “‘Why do you stay with us? What are we doing well? How can we make it better for you?’”
Conducting stay interviews addresses employees’ concerns proactively an2d creates a better work environment, McGee says, which helps employees choose to stay rather than leave.
1. Vanguard Growth Fund Nearing 2 ½ Year Up Trend Line
StockCharts
2. Another Extreme Pessimism Signal for Short-Term Bottom
NDR
3. U.S. Share of Global Stock Market Cap Exceeded Internet Bubble Levels
WSJ
4. Rotation to International is Strongest Start to Year Since 1988
US vs. RoW. “As of March 7, this is the worst start to a year for the S&P 500 compared to the MSCI ACWI ex-US Index on record, going back to 1988.”
Sherwood
5. Alternative/Private Equity Stocks
StockCharts
6. Uranium ETF at Key Level..Right on 200-Week Moving Average
StockCharts
7. Tesla Market Share Dropping Well Before Political Turmoil
Sherwood
8. Will We See Weak Dollar Policy After $1.4 Trillion Spent on New Factories Last Year?
After 50 years of rust and decline, American manufacturing is roaring back to life. Spending on new factories hit $1.4 trillion last year… easily a record.
Rational Optimist Society
9. US Population Turning 25 Years Old Each Year Beginning a Downtrend
John Burns
10. The Reading Crisis in College
How critical thinking skills can help combat the decline in college reading skills.
Key points
In the attention economy of the digital world, long-form content may be seen as a chore, not a pleasure.
Teaching students to restate complex ideas in their own words is a powerful tool.
Educators and parents need to model good reading habits and emphasize the irreplaceable value of deep reading.
Via Psychology Today: Many professors have witnessed a troubling trend in recent years: College students are struggling with reading more than ever. This isn’t just about preferring Netflix to novels; it’s a fundamental shift in how young adults engage with text, and it can have serious implications for their academic success and future careers.
The Decline of Reading Skills
Let’s face it: Reading isn’t what it used to be. In the attention economy of the digital world, long-form content is often seen as a chore rather than a pleasure. Recent trends indicate a concerning decline in reading skills among college students:
Struggles with complex texts: Many students fixate on isolated details rather than grasping the full context.
Diminished focus and endurance: Short attention spans make it difficult to engage with long passages.
Preference for short-form content: Social Media consumption has rewired reading habits, making traditional texts feel overwhelming.
Superficial engagement: Skimming has replaced deep reading, leading to a weaker grasp of complex ideas.
Skepticism about reading’s value: Some students view reading as outdated, favoring video content and AI summaries instead.
Pandemic’s lasting impact: Lowered academic standards and inflated grades have left many underprepared for college-level reading.
The Consequences
This decline in reading skills isn’t just an academic issue; it has real-world implications. Students who struggle with reading often:
Have difficulty comprehending complex ideas in their chosen fields.
Struggle to communicate effectively in writing.
Miss out on the cognitive benefits of deep reading, such as improved empathy and critical thinking.
Face challenges in careers that require analysis of detailed reports or contracts.
The Critical Thinking Solution
The solution to this problem lies in harnessing the power of critical thinking to revitalize reading skills. Here’s how:
1. Active reading strategies: Encourage students to engage with texts actively. This means underlining key points, jotting down questions in the margins, and summarizing main ideas after each section. By treating reading as a dialogue with the author rather than a passive activity, students can improve both comprehension and retention.
2. The power of paraphrasing: Teaching students to restate complex ideas in their own words is a powerful tool. This process forces them to truly understand the material before they can explain it, deepening their engagement with the text.
3. Contextual analysis: Help students see the bigger picture by asking questions like:
What’s the author’s background?
When was this written, and how might that influence the content?
How does this text relate to other things you’ve read or learned?
This approach turns reading from a solitary activity into an investigative one, making it more engaging and relevant.
4. Debate and discussion: Organize group discussions or debates around the texts students are reading. This not only makes reading a social activity but also exposes students to different interpretations and viewpoints, enriching their understanding.
5. Real-world application: Encourage students to connect what they’re reading to current events or personal experiences. This makes abstract concepts more concrete and demonstrates the relevance of reading in understanding the world around them.
6. Digital literacy integration: Instead of fighting against digital trends, incorporate them into reading exercises. Use social media-style summaries as a starting point for deeper analysis or have students create video responses to readings, combining their digital skills with traditional comprehension.
7. Metacognitive reflection: Teach students to think about their thinking. After reading, have them reflect on questions like:
What was challenging about this text?
How did my understanding change as I read?
What strategies helped me comprehend better?
This self-awareness can help students develop personalized reading strategies.
8. Interdisciplinary connections: Encourage students to draw connections between texts from different courses or disciplines. This not only reinforces the idea that reading skills are universally applicable but also promotes a more holistic understanding of complex issues.
The Road Ahead
Improving reading skills among college students is not just about assigning more books or lamenting the influence of technology. It’s about reimagining how we approach reading in the digital age. By integrating critical thinking strategies, we can make reading more engaging, relevant, and rewarding for students.
Educators and parents need to model good reading habits and emphasize the irreplaceable value of deep reading. In a world increasingly dominated by soundbites and AI-generated content, the ability to critically engage with complex texts is more important than ever.
So, let’s turn the page on disengaged reading and write a new chapter where critical thinking and deep reading go hand in hand, to prepare students not just for academic success but also for a lifetime of learning and growth.
The indicator to which I refer is the ratio of gold’s
According to a 2019 study, “Gold, Platinum and Expected Stock Returns,” the U.S. stock market more often than not rises over the subsequent 12 months when the gold/platinum ratio is in a strong uptrend — and vice versa. In fact, researchers Darien Huang, a former finance professor at Cornell University, and Mete Kilic, a finance professor at the University of Southern California, found that the ratio has a better track record than most of the other better-known indicators to which investors typically pay attention.
This is good news since the gold/platinum ratio has risen strongly over the last 12 months, as you can see from the chart above. The correlation between this ratio’s trailing 12-month change and the stock market’s subsequent 12-month change is significant at the 99% confidence level — higher even than the 95% level that statisticians often use when assessing whether a pattern is genuine.
The gold/platinum ratio has grown 25% over the past year, higher than 82% of all comparable readings of the past 20 years. As you can see from the table below, this puts the current ratio solidly in the quartile associated with impressive double-digit stock-market returns over the subsequent 12 months.
Market Watch
8. U.S./Canada/Mexico Trade $1.6 Trillion Per Year
Irrelevant Investor
9. 8 Million People Left Venezuela in Last 10 Years…82% Poverty Rate
Statista
10. Want to Keep Your Mind Sharp? Neurology Research Says Cutting Out This Food Can Improve Your Brain Function (and Make You Live Longer)
Not good news for meat lovers, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Imagine you’re gearing up for another high-stakes day—important meetings, big decisions, and lots of problem-solving. Your focus needs to be sharp and your mind clear; you want to be at the top of your game.
But what if one of the things you’re eating every day is quietly working against you?
Turns out, that giant burger at lunch or sizzling five strips of bacon in the morning might be doing more than adding to your waistline—it could be increasing your risk of dementia and even cutting your lifespan short.
The downside of too much processed meat
I’m not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, as I love a good, triple-decker turkey sandwich drenched in mustard. But consider the data: A massive study published in Neurologyfollowed over 133,000 health care professionals for more than four decades and found a clear connection between eating processed red meat—things like sausages, bacon, salami, and hot dogs—and a higher risk of cognitive decline.
People who ate about two servings of processed red meat per week had a 14 percent greater risk of developing dementia compared with those who ate it sparingly. And the rate of cognitive aging was even faster in regular consumers.
On the flip side, swapping out processed meats for plant-based proteins like nuts, beans, or tofu reduced dementia risk by 19 percent. It’s a small change with big benefits—not just for your brain at work, but for your longevity.
And it’s not just your mind at stake. The study estimated that if everyone ate less than 42g of red meat per day (less than half a serving), one in 10 deaths from heart disease and cancer could have been prevented.
But it’s not just about what you take out—it’s also about what you add in. Foods rich in “good fats,” like avocados, nuts, olive oil, and fatty fish, can help fight inflammation, protect your blood vessels, and support brain function. Your gut health also plays a massive role in cognitive performance. The latest research shows that eating more fiber-rich foods (like plants, beans, and fermented foods like kimchi) can improve gut health and lower your risk of mental decline.
Meanwhile, ultra-processed foods—like chips, sodas, and ready-made meals—have been linked to a 44 percent higher risk of dementia, according to another review of multiple studies. That’s a stat worth paying attention to next time you reach for a snack or drink from the vending machine.
The good news
So, do you need to cut out all meat forever? Not at all. Moderation is key. Ease up on red and processed meats and add more plant-based foods, good fats, and regular exercise. That’s the right balance. This lifestyle change won’t just help you live longer—it’ll help you think clearer, work smarter, and lead better. After all, a sharp mind and strong body are two of the best assets any entrepreneur or business leader can have.
The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.
1. The Nasdaq 100 has Closed above its 200-day Moving Average for 496 Consecutive Trading Days, the 2nd Longest Uptrend in History
Zach Goldberg Jefferies
2. AMZN -17.5% Correction to 200-Day
StockCharts
3. 10-Year Treasury Yield Key Spot..Back to December 2024 Levels…Below 200-Day
StockCharts
4. JR. Gold Miners GDXJ +15% YTD
StockCharts
5. Gold Up Double the S&P 12 Months…GLD vs. SPY Chart
StockCharts
6. Weak Dollar Driving International Stocks…PE Ratios Latin America…All-Time Lows
Topdown Charts
7. Another High Beta Name Down Big…MDB -44%
StockCharts
8. Private Equity Stops Growing First Time in 20 Years
Via Morning Brew: While it might seem like private equity has dominion over everything from your dog’s vet clinic to your date-night seafood spot, the industry actually got smaller last year for the first time in 20 years. The amount of assets managed by PE firms fell 2% in 2024 to $4.7 trillion—marking the first time assets fell since consulting group Bain & Co. started tracking it in 2005, according to the Financial Times.
So, what’s squeezing private equity like private equity squeezes a mid-sized company it’s just acquired? The industry has a $3 trillion backlog of aging deals it can’t manage to sell off during a slow period for M&A, and investors are taking note and refraining from new investments into the industry. Bain found that PE funds are holding ~2x the assets they had in 2019, while the amount they’re selling is about the same—meaning it could take years to work through their excess holdings.
Retail imbalance. “In the first hour of trading, the so-called retail investors yanked $1.2 billion out of the US equity market — the largest pullback during that time period since JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s data begin a decade ago … The pullback from single stocks reached $1.1 billion and was broadly distributed across sectors.”
Bloomberg
2. XLK Tech ETF Below 200-Day
StockCharts
3. XLK Tech ETF Longer-Term Chart…Trading Above 50-Week Moving Average Since March 2023
StockCharts
4. Google Searches Grew 20% Since ChatGPT Debut in 2022
Google-ing it still reigns supreme. OpenAI’s ChatGPT may pose an ongoing threat to Google’s business, but the numbers don’t indicate that just yet. On Monday, Google said it sees more than 5 trillion search queries a year, and basic math from Barclays analysts suggests it may have grown over 20% since ChatGPT’s debut in 2022. Although, the arrival of AI agents is a different story.
Business Insider (Chart via StockCharts)
5. 27% of Cannabis Businesses are Profitable vs. 42% in 2022
Marijuana-industry research firm Whitney Economics said in a survey released last year that roughly 27% of cannabis businesses are profitable, down from 42% in 2022. Nearly a third are unprofitable, with the rest breaking even. Whitney estimates next year’s debt maturity at roughly $6 billion, based on both public and private multistate operators. Equity investors have noticed the glut. Cannabis investments by private-equity and venture-capital firms are at their lowest levels in years in both dollar values and deal counts. Last year, U.S. private-equity deals in the sector totaled $260 million, compared with $1.3 billion for all of 2018, deal tracker PitchBook said. Venture-capital deals were $410 million, compared with roughly $3.06 billion in 2019.
MJ Weed ETF -92% from Inception
WSJ (Chart via StockCharts)
6. Tesla Euro Market Share 1%
Barron’s
7. More Good Inflation News
Andreas Steno Larsen
8. U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall to All-Time Low…Below 2008 Crisis
3. Defensive Consumer Staples Breakout to New Highs
StockCharts
4. 20-Year Treasury Back to December 2024 Levels…10 Year Treasury Yield 4.20%
StockCharts
5. Data Center Favorites….Vertiv Almost Cut in Half from Post Election Highs
StockCharts
6. Solar Stocks New Lows…FSLR -50%
StockCharts
7. TAN Solar ETF -60% from Highs
StockCharts
8. Gas Prices Going Down Good for Inflation…Crude Oil Chart
StockCharts
9. China vs. U.S. Global Trading Partners
Barron’s
10. The Key Role of Temperature in Sleep Quality
Key points
A cooler bedroom supports deep sleep by aligning with the body’s natural temperature drop.
Ideal sleep temperatures range from 60°F to 67°F (15°C to 19°C) for optimal rest.
Overheating at night can reduce deep sleep and increase wakefulness.
Via Psychology Today: When it comes to achieving high-quality sleep, factors like light exposure and noise levels often come to mind. However, one of the most crucial yet often overlooked variables is temperature. Research suggests that the temperature of your sleeping environment significantly impacts sleep duration and efficiency and the ability to transition into deep sleep stages. Understanding the relationship between body temperature and sleep can help you optimize your bedroom conditions and improve overall sleep health.
How Temperature Affects Sleep
Our bodies follow a natural circadian rhythm that dictates fluctuations in core body temperature throughout the day. About two hours before bedtime, the body begins to cool down, signaling that it is time to sleep. This physiological process prepares the body for the onset of deep sleep, which is essential for cognitive function, memory consolidation, and overall well-being.
If your sleeping environment is too warm, it can disrupt this natural cooling process, leading to fragmented sleep and frequent awakenings. Conversely, a cooler room can support the body’s natural thermoregulation, making it easier to fall asleep and stay asleep.
The Science Behind the Ideal Sleep Temperature
While personal comfort levels vary, scientific research indicates that most people sleep in environments that are too warm for optimal rest. Studies suggest that an ideal bedroom temperature for sleep falls between 60°F and 67°F (15°C to 19°C), though some research recommends a slightly broader range of 68°F to 77°F (20°C to 25°C). One large-scale study involving over 34,000 participants found that sleep quality tends to decline as bedroom temperatures exceed 60°F (16°C). Global data also indicates that sleep efficiency drops significantly in temperatures above 50°F (10°C). These findings suggest that even mild increases in ambient temperature can negatively impact sleep duration and depth. In fact, in the largest study of billions of sleep measurements from people in 68 countries, it was found that higher nighttime temperatures across the world are specifically leading to more trouble falling asleep.
Why Warmer Temperatures Disrupt Sleep
When the bedroom is too warm, the body struggles to maintain its natural cooling cycle, leading to alterations in sleep cycles and impaired sleep quality. Two of the major mechanisms include:
Increased Wakefulness: Excessive warmth can lead to frequent awakenings throughout the night, preventing deep and restorative sleep.
Reduced Slow-Wave Sleep: The body requires a cooler environment to enter slow-wave sleep (SWS), the deep sleep phase crucial for brain health and memory consolidation.
How to Keep Your Bedroom Cool for Better Sleep
If you struggle with overheating at night, there are several strategies you can implement to create a cooler sleeping environment:
1. Adjust Your Bedroom Temperature
Keep the thermostat between 60°F and 67°F (15°C and 19°C) for optimal sleep conditions.
Use an air conditioner or a fan to promote air circulation and maintain a consistent temperature.
2. Improve Airflow
Open windows to allow fresh air to circulate, especially in cooler seasons.
Position a fan near your bed for a gentle cooling effect.
Use breathable curtains or blinds to block excessive heat from the sun during the day.
3. Choose Cooling Bedding Materials
Opt for lightweight, breathable fabrics such as cotton, linen, or bamboo for sheets and pillowcases.
Consider using a cooling mattress or mattress topper designed to regulate body temperature. A smaller but compelling study investigated how overnight temperature regulation influences sleep duration. The results showed that manipulating nighttime temperature could lead to more than 20 minutes of additional sleep per night.
Sleep with a thinner blanket or remove extra layers of bedding.
4. Wear Breathable Sleepwear
Avoid heavy or synthetic fabrics that trap heat; instead, opt for loose-fitting cotton or moisture-wicking sleepwear.
5. Optimize Your Nighttime Routine
While it may seem logical to take a cold shower before bed, doing so can be counterproductive. Cold exposure can activate the sympathetic nervous system, increasing alertness and making it harder to fall asleep.
Instead, taking a warm shower or bath about an hour before bedtime can promote better sleep. This practice helps the body to cool down naturally by dilating blood vessels, leading to a gradual temperature drop that enhances sleep onset and quality.
1. International Stocks: Possibly Off to a Good Start for the Year
Equity markets around the world are trouncing US stocks in early 2025, an ominous historical signal for how the rest of the year could shape up for US investors.
While the S&P 500 Index eclipsed most foreign markets in 2024, that dynamic has gone into reverse so far this year, as tariff worries and nascent economic concerns weigh on US equities. The US stock benchmark is up just over 1% this year, compared to the MSCI All Country World Index excluding the US, which has gained nearly 7% since January.
If history’s a guide, that could mean further relative weakness for US stocks in the months ahead. The S&P 500 has never outperformed global peers on an annual basis when it has trailed the international benchmark by more than 2.8 percentage points by mid-February, as it did this year, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis studying 35 years of data.
The underperformance is “a rare and historically significant red flag against a full-year recovery as the market’s fundamentals deteriorate,” according to BI strategists Gina Martin Adams and Gillian Wolff, who conducted the analysis.
2. Europe Facing Massive Increase in Defense Spending…Rheimmetall Chart +100% Year to Date
StockCharts
3. NVDA Revenue +385% vs. Headcount +60%
Chartr
4. Uranium ETF 4th Pullback to these Levels in 18 Months
StockCharts
5. Collateralized Debt Obligations Forecast to Return to 2008 Levels
Wall Street expects to sell more than $335 billion in asset-backed debt this year. Remember that conference in ‘The Big Short’? It just drew a record 10,000.
WSJ
6. Private Equity Managers Apollo and Blackstone Pullback to 200-Days
StockCharts
7. Private Equity Secondary Funds Raise $100B
PitchBook
8. $416,000 for a Ferrari
In 2024, the estimated average cost of a Ferrari was more than $400,000. While that’s a pretty outrageous amount in isolation, it’s almost more impressive that Ferrari has been able to increase its prices by ~5% per year since 2012.
Formula: Cars & Spare Parts Revenue / Total Shipments
FinChat
9. The World’s Most Valuable Sports Teams
Semafor
10. ‘The largest crypto theft of all time’: Historic $1.4 billion Bybit Hack Shocks World of Digital Assets
Quick Take:
Bybit’s massive hack and loss of over $1.4 billion in crypto assets triggered various reactions.
Elliptic’s Chief Scientist called it “the largest crypto theft of all time, by some margin.”
Flashbots Strategy Lead Hasu said Bybit should be fine and expects the exchange “will make all customers whole.”
Via The Abnormal Returns blog: Bybit’s massive hack and loss of over $1.4 billion in crypto assets shook the world of digital assets on Friday, triggering multiple reactions.
“This makes it the largest crypto theft of all time, by some margin,” Elliptic co-founder and Chief Scientist Tom Robinson told The Block. “The next largest crypto theft would be the $611 million stolen from Poly Network in 2021. In fact it may even be the largest single theft of all time. We’ve labelled the thief’s addresses in our software, to help to prevent these funds from being cashed-out through other exchanges.”
On Friday, hackers appeared to steal more than $1.4 billion in ETH from Bybit’s cold wallet, the exchange confirmed. It seems the hacker tricked Bybit’s ETH cold wallet signers into approving a malicious transaction to gain control of the wallet surreptitiously.
The company’s CEO took to social media to reassure the public.
“Bybit is Solvent even if this hack loss is not recovered, all of clients assets are 1 to 1 backed, we can cover the loss,” Bybit CEO Ben Zhou posted to X.
Flashbots strategy lead Hasu also took to X to say that the hack would not lead to the demise of Bybit.
“If you want my serious take, Bybit has way more than 1.4 billion of revenue per year,” Hasu wrote. “They are good for the money and will make all customers whole. It doesn’t matter for ETH because Bybit will honor customers’s ETH liabilities and buy back the assets on open market.”
Nonetheless, the amount taken in the attack on Friday was astronomical, even by cryptocurrency standards.Start your day with the most influential events and analysis happening across the digital a
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Last May, the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange DMM Bitcoin suffered the largest crypto hack of 2024 when it lost over 4,500 BTC, valued at over $300 million at the time. FTX lost $477 million in 2022.
Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao, or CZ, offered assistance in reply to one of Bybit CEO’s many posts relaying information related to the hack. “Not an easy situation to deal with. Might suggest to halt all withdrawals for a bit as a standard security precaution. Will provide any assistance if needed.”
Meanwhile, Arkham Intelligence offered a bounty to track down whoever was responsible for the hack.
“We’ve created and funded a bounty to help identify the person or organization behind today’s [over] $1 billion Bybit hack,” the firm posted to X. “Submissions to this bounty will be shared with the Bybit team to support their investigation. Reward: 50,000 ARKM.”
“This Bybit hack really sucks,” trader Julius Stark posted to X. “As pro trader there isn’t a better trading platform with more accurate data and better UI. They are one of the good guys.”
Co-founder and CEO of Solana swap platform Titan told The Block: “The Bybit hack shows how important the human component of approving transactions is. If humans cannot easily inspect a proposed transaction in a multi-sig, people eventually approve anything that comes through.”
“Given the scale of the alleged exploit, this breach raises serious concerns regarding centralized exchange security and the evolving threat landscape in web3,” a CertiK spokesperson told The Block. CertiK is a digital assets auditing firm backed by Sequoia Capital, Tiger Global and Goldman Sachs.
So far in 2025 the Magnificent 7 have been lagging behind. They’re actually last behind all the others.
Edward Jones via Spilled Coffee
2. Another Stat on Concentration of Market…The Number of Growth Stocks Shrinking
Rare Growth: Another interesting angle on US markets is how undiversified things are becoming, especially on the growth side — the chart below shows the Russell 1000 growth index down to a record low 394 names mid last year, while the Value index at a record high 871 (much more diversified). And as for concentration within that, “the top 10 weights of the Russell 1000 Growth Index comprise 61.0% of the index, compared to the Russell 1000 Value Index at 17.2%.” Stark stuff.
Glenmede
3. Small Cap Close to Record Amount of Days Below Highs
Equities: Here is the number of days the Russell 2000 has remained below its previous high.
Daily Shot
4. Airbus vs. Boeing
Abnormal Returns
5. Amazon Passes Walmart in Revenues
Sherwood
6. 2025 Daily Market Data
Ryan Detrick
7. Commodities Leader Glencore Chart New Lows
StockCharts
8. Tech Stock AKAM Back to 2023 Levels
StockCharts
9. Russia/China Trade
Russia’s leader briefed his Chinese counterpart on recent talks with the US, underlining their close ties even as Washington purportedly seeks to draw Moscow away from Beijing. The telephone conversation Monday afternoon came as The Wall Street Journal noted that the two countries’ militaries are “working together as never before,” accelerating the pace of joint military exercises in the Pacific, from near Alaska to the Philippines. The US strategy of prying the pair apart will be challenging, the Journal’s chief foreign-affairs correspondent noted, pointing to China and Russia’s deepening relationship that ranges from military and intelligence cooperation to economic support, and the potential cost for Washington of alienating its allies in Europe.
Semafor
10. We Have Power
Via The Daily Stoic: Epictetus’s most powerful line teaches us that it’s not events that upset us, but what we think about those events that causes our distress.
His insight reveals that our perception of an obstacle, disadvantage, or trial—our subjective understanding—holds more power than the objective reality itself.
Consider this: if you convince yourself that inadequate teachers are the reason you’re not as smart as others, you’ll struggle with learning throughout your life. While your teachers may indeed have been subpar, the limiting story you’ve chosen to believe is the real obstacle. Someone who reframes the same experience differently—“I rose above my underperforming schools through my hunger for learning” or “My street smarts compensate for gaps in my formal education”—will achieve far more in life.
As Epictetus said:
“Sickness is an impediment to the body but not to the will unless the will wants to be impeded. Lameness is an impediment to the leg, but not to will. If you tell yourself this every time, you will find the impediment is to something else but not to yourself.”
Remember, he spoke these words as someone with a crippled leg (sustained during his time as a slave, no less). He refused to let his physical impairment define his identity. Rather than embracing a narrow, self-pitying narrative about being broken or deprived, his teachings consistently reflect a more empowering story: he had discovered his true strength, and no one could diminish his spirit, no matter what they did.
This is the narrative we should embrace. Yes, we have problems, but we are not the problem. We have flaws but we are not flawed. We may act foolishly at times, but that doesn’t make us fools. We determine what things mean. We choose what truly counts as an obstacle.
S&P 500 TTM operating EPS are on pace to hit another record high (75% of companies have reported Q4 earnings), up 9.5% over the past year.
Biello
2. Largest 50 Stock XLG Sideways Channel…Which Way Will It Break?
StockCharts
3. BuyBack Window is Wide Open
GS noted, “We now estimate ~80% of the S&P 500 are in open window with ~85% in open window by the end of the week. We are expecting open window to run for another month.”
4. From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
39% of February FMS investors say a recessionary trade war is the biggest ‘tail risk’, overtaking inflation causing Fed to hike (31%), and followed by AI bubble (13%).” – BofA Fund Manager Survey.
BofA
5. Natural Gas +23% Year to Date -UNG
StockCharts
6. MSCI Europe Up 2x U.S. 2025
Nasdaq
7. Chinese Internet Stocks Stop Right at October Highs…
StockCharts
8. Housing Market—Toll Bros -33% from Highs…Earnings Yesterday
StockCharts
9. Lowest Rents for Singles
NYT
10. Warren Buffett and Mark Cuban Agree: This Is the Best Investment You Will Ever Make
Buffett and Cuban certainly value investing in and owning businesses, but both agree this investment makes an even bigger difference.
Via INC: Plenty of people ask Warren Buffett for investment advice. No surprise, since over his lifetime—and as a result, at least in part due to what he calls the Methuselah effect—Buffett has turned a $10 million net worth at age 30 into an estimated $147 billion.
Plenty of people also ask Mark Cuban for investing advice. Not necessarily for the stock market, but as a longtime panelist on Shark Tank, for investing in startups and small businesses.
Those are clearly different forms of investing, but what does each say when asked to name the best investments they’ve ever made?
Warren Buffett’s Best Investment
Buffett doesn’t feel investing in stocks, or even businesses, is the best investment you can make.
As Buffett says:
Generally speaking, investing in yourself is the best thing you can do. Anything that improves your own talents; nobody can tax it or take it away from you. They can run up huge deficits and the dollar can become worth far less. You can have all kinds of things happen.
But if you’ve got talent yourself, and you’ve maximized your talent, you’ve got a tremendous asset that can return 10-fold.
Improving your skills, gaining experience, broadening your perspective, expanding your network—unlike many other investments, those things don’t depreciate in value. Inflation doesn’t lessen their value.
Once you gain a skill, it can never be taken away from you—and on the flip side, can be leveraged for the rest of your life.
Mark Cuban’s Best Investment
Here’s what Cuban said when asked by Men’s Health to name some of the best investments he’s ever made:
Some of the best investments I’ve ever made were investing in myself, first and foremost. When you’re first starting, you may or may not have a job. You don’t have any money. You’re at a complete uncertainty about your career.
What I learned early on is that if I put in the effort, I can learn almost anything. It may take me a long time, but by putting in the effort I taught myself technology, I taught myself to program … it was time-consuming, painfully so, but that investment in myself has paid dividends for the rest of my life.
I learned that learning truly is a skill … and that by continuing to learn to this day, I can compete and get ahead of most people, because the reality is most people don’t put in the time to learn.
And that’s always given me a competitive advantage.
Knowledge, once gained, can never be taken away—and can be applied to the rest of your life, for the rest of your life. Investing in yourself will produce better long-term results than any other investment you can make, if only because investing in yourself is one of the few investment outcomes you can almost totally control.
Learn to sell—a skill Cuban feels is crucial to business success—and you can forever generate revenue. Learn to understand the basics of accounting and finance—a skill Buffett feels is crucial to business success—and you can forever analyze and improve your business.
Put in effort. Get a return. Guaranteed ROI. No wonder investing in yourself—your knowledge, your skills, your experience—is the best investment you can make.
Weekly ETF flows. “Over past week, U.S. large-cap equity ETFs had most outflows (nearly $2.8B) while agg bond funds had most inflows (nearly $2.2B).
Arbor Data via LIz Ann Sonders
3. Bonds During Recent Stock Drawdowns
Capital Group
4. Euro Stock Large Cap 50 Breaks Out to New Highs
StockCharts
5. FinTech VC Activity Higher…Back to 2022 Levels
PitchBook
6. The End the “de minimis” Duty-Free Import Provision Hits Shein IPO Valuation
Shein faces investor pressure to slash valuation to $30 billion ahead of London IPO, Bloomberg News reports
Via Reuters: Online fast-fashion retailer Shein is under pressure to cut its valuation to about $30 billion ahead of its London listing, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Its shareholders are suggesting that an adjustment is required to help get the potential initial public offering in the UK over the line, Bloomberg News reported.
A spokesperson for Shein declined to comment.
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Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Shein was set to cut its valuation in the potential London listing to around $50 billion, nearly a quarter less than the company’s fundraising value of $66 billion in 2023, amid growing headwinds.
Shein is aiming to go public in London in the first half of this year, assuming it secured approvals from regulators in the UK and China, Reuters reported.
The Financial Times reported last week that Shein’s listing was likely to be postponed to the second half of this year after U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to end the “de minimis” duty-free import provision.
7. Walmart Sell Off Yesterday…Back to 50-Day
StockCharts
8. U.S. Superstores Good Start to Year
Business Insider
9. Four Ways to Get More Deep Sleep over 50
Via The Telegraph: While many of us tend to assume poorer sleep is a natural part of ageing, Dr Sabia urges over-50s to do everything they can to strive for more deep sleep.
“There are so many reasons for us not to get enough quality sleep – we live in a society where it isn’t prioritised,” she says. ‘But it is essential for brain health.
1. Get into daylight every morning If we do one thing to improve our sleep, she advises: “Get up at the same time every day and get outside into daylight to regulate your circadian rhythm.”
Studies have shown that bright light therapy, in which people with dementia sit in front of a light box for 30 minutes every morning, can help reduce their sleep disturbances by reinforcing their body clock. Scientists are currently exploring whether this kind of therapy could be used to prevent the disease.
In the meantime, research has proved that making efforts to regulate our circadian rhythm, including exposure to natural light in the daytime, avoiding blue light from screens before bedtime and blocking out light at night using an eye mask or blackout blinds, can help us get better-quality, deeper sleep.
2. Keep naps short It’s tempting, following a restless night, to try to catch up the following day, but this doesn’t offer the same brain benefits as night-time sleep, says Dr Sabia.
“Napping doesn’t result in the same deep cleaning as happens during the night,” she says. “It can also interfere with good quality nighttime sleep, particularly if you enter deep sleep during the nap as this means getting less deep sleep at night.”
3. Try pink noise Sleep researchers at the University of Cardiff are working on sounds that may help to boost deep sleep, including soft “clicks” played to sleepers as they approach the peak of their brain activity during slow wave sleep. Their research has shown this can increase deep sleep.
Until the technique is marketed as a gadget we can use at home, it’s worth trying pink noise. A small recent study by researchers in Zurich found that playing pink noise, which includes sounds such as falling rain, a flowing river, crashing ocean waves or rustling leaves, enhanced slow wave brain activity during deep sleep in some participants.
4. Limit alcohol in the evening Moderate drinking has not been linked to an increased risk of dementia, but research has proved a link between alcohol and diminished sleep quality.
Drinking tends to increase slow wave sleep in the first half of the night, but in the second half, all stages of sleep are disrupted, leading to frequent wakings. Ideally, it’s best to avoid alcohol for three hours before bed. Avoiding caffeine for at least seven hours before bedtime is also recommended, as it significantly reduces slow wave sleep.
10. Martial Arts Training Can Help You Change Your Mind
Key points
Martial arts training can have widespread holistic health benefits.
Changes in brain activity patterns related to mindfulness and meditation occur even with 12 weeks of training.
Martial arts training stimulates neuroplasticity benefiting health, function, and creativity.
Via Psychology Today: When I was an undergraduate in the late 1980s, I did several research projects on the physiology of martial arts. At that time, there were only a handful of published scientific research on physiology, psychology and martial arts. There are now hundreds appearing every year. Often such studies are cross-sectional, meaning a group that do some martial arts are assessed on various measures and contrasted with “control” folks who don’t. There are far fewer experimental studies, especially related to measures in exercise neuroscience, which is why a recent study caught my eye.
Young Adults Kung Fu Fighting Are Also Fast as Lightning
Min Wang, Kurusart Konharn, Wichal Eungpinichpong, Sawitri Wanpen, and Paramaporn Sangpara from Huzhou University in China and Khon Kaen and Rajabhat Mahasarakham Universities in Thailand wanted to know if there were measurable changes in electroencephalographic (EEG) power bands arising from martial arts training. To answer this question, they conducted an intervention study that saw young (18-22) adults train tai chi forms for about 45 minutes, three days per week for 12 weeks. The comparison age-matched non-intervention group maintained their activity levels. Before and after the intervention, resting state EEG power bands were assessed along with measures of physical capacity including handgrip strength, explosive leg power, balance, and flexibility.
Much Ado About Brain Power
The key outcome from this study was that alpha band (8-12 Hz) power increased in the martial arts but not in the non-intervention group. Alpha band power is associated with performance of skilled motor acts, creativity, meditation, and mindfulness. As such, the martial arts training led to measurable changes associated with a calm and focused mindset. The authors also note that “….alpha band have been associated with the relaxation response, which is the body’s natural counterbalance to stress….” and thus martial arts training may contribute to overall holistic health. It is also important to point out that often studies of tai chi in particular are done with older populations. These results are important to emphasize the important role of martial arts as lifelong health activities.
Neuroplasticity Spills Over to Other Activities
That tai chi training, even for only 12 weeks, can enhance physical fitness and alpha-band power in college students highlights possible health benefits. Additionally, the authors of this study suggest that, since alpha band power was enhanced after training, it “may contribute to the experience of ‘flow’ or being in the zone during exercise. Flow is a state of optimal performance characterized by deep focus, heightened awareness, and a sense of effortless action. Alpha band have been observed in individuals experiencing flow states during various activities.”
This observation underscores an important characteristic of health benefiting activities—that they apply to other things. Martial arts training not only improves health related to the trained activity but may enhance capacity in many other activities. This nicely highlights my all time favorite martial arts quote from the 16th-century Samurai Miyamoto Musashi: “The true science of martial arts means practicing them in such a way that they will be useful at any time, and to teach them in such a way that they will be useful in all things.”
Martial arts training can clearly enhance many aspects of holistic health. So, if you are already training, please continue, or if you are considering giving martial arts a go, please do so as well. Many benefits for body, brain, mindfulness, and creativity await.
1. Semiconductor Index Underperformed S&P on One-Year Basis
Within technology, semiconductors had been the strongest industry group, outperforming everything by a wide margin. But that too has flipped, with semiconductor relative strength peaking last June. Semis have actually underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year, a fact that would likely surprise many.
Biello
2. Elon Musk Companies and Government Subsidies
His space exploration company SpaceX has received over $20 billion from the federal government over the past 15 years, according to federal spending records. SpaceX CEO Gwynne Shotwell has said that the company has $22 billion in government contracts, Reuters reported.
EV company Tesla, whose stock makes up the bulk of Musk’s nearly $400 billion net worth, has benefited from $2.8 billion in tax subsidies or grants, according to subsidy tracker Good Jobs First. The Los Angeles Times calculated in 2015 that Musk’s empire of companies, which includes Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity and The Boring Company, took in nearly $5 billion in tax breaks.
Tesla, SpaceX, and DOGE did not reply to a request for comment from Fortune.
Fortune
3. Hedge Inflation with Stocks. Change in S&P 500 Dividends, Median Earnings, and Consumer Prices
Axios
Abnormal Returns
4. SMCI Bounced at 200-Week Moving Average…Still More than Halfway Off Highs
Stock Charts
5. Share of EU Imports by State
Visual Capitalist
6. The Big 6 Private Equity Firms Dominate
Meanwhile, the big are getting bigger by raking in money from insurance companies and individual investors. The top six private-markets managers—Apollo, Blackstone, Ares Management, KKR, Carlyle and Brookfield Asset Management—were responsible for nearly 60% of the industry’s total fundraising in the first three quarters of 2024, according to company filings and data compiled by Preqin. The figure is up from about 20% in 2019 and includes areas such as credit and infrastructure.
WSJ
7. Venture and Private Investment in Crypto
The Irrelevant Investor
8. Europe VC Valuations Also Moving Higher
Despite a lackluster year for VC dealmaking, European startups that raised capital in 2024 received more money and at higher valuations than before. Here are five charts from PitchBook’s 2024 Annual European VC Valuations Report detailing how price tags and deal sizes moved last year.
PitchBook
9. Male Vote 2020 vs. 2024
The COVID-19 pandemic reduced young people’s trust in authority and pushed them further to the right, a political writer argued. US youths have traditionally been progressive. But in 2024 they were nearly evenly split between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and Europe has seen a similar shift. One possible explanation is a global protest vote against inflation: Many incumbents were voted out in 2024 as prices soared. But Derek Thompson argued in The Atlantic that the pandemic reduced physical-world socialization, pushing young men in particular into online echo chambers: Thompson said that youths who experience pandemics “have less confidence in their scientific and political leadership,” which can persist for years because political ideology tends to solidify in one’s 20s.
1. Cash at Lowest Levels Since 2010 for Professional Investors
Yahoo Finance
2. Mag 7 Not Leading in 2025
Financial Times
3. U.S. Dollar Chart Fails to Make New Highs….Closes Below 50-Day
Stock Charts
4. Weaker Dollar Helping International Stocks…Rotation to Europe Fund Flows
Fund inflows into Europe-focused equity funds surged last week.
Deutsche Bank Research
5. Euro Defense Spending
For example, if we assume a gradual increase in defence spending until 3% of GDP is reached in 2030, it would be equivalent to about EUR600bn of additional spending relative to the 2% target by the end of the decade. This extra spending is equivalent to about 3.5% of GDP. Correcting the last 10 years of underspending relative to the current 2% of GDP defence spending target would cost EUR800bn (equivalent to about 4.5% of GDP). An alternative approach to thinking about spending needs is to look at closing the gaps in European defence capabilities. These too point to the need for significant additional spending on defence. For example, Commission President von der Leyen has talked about an EU missile shield as a priority. The EU Commissioner for Defence said this alone could have a price tag of EUR500bn or almost 3% of GDP.
Jim Reid Deutsche Bank
6. Fires…PCG California Energy Down -30%
Stock Charts
7. FXI-China Large Cap Breaking Above Previous 2024 Highs
Stock Charts
8. Small Cap Stocks Still Stuck Sideways Below Highs
Stock Charts
9. Barron’s DOGE Update
Via Barron’s: Nor did markets seem perturbed as Elon Musk’s DOGE wielded a scythe on federal payrolls, ostensibly to slash the budget deficit. The 75,000 workers who reportedly have accepted buyouts represent about 2.5% of the federal workforce, according to a report from Veneta Dimitrova and London Stockton of Ned Davis Research, which would represent a savings of about $15 billion out of the $650 billion in employee compensation. “In the context of $7.0 trillion total federal outlays, however, the expected savings are a drop in the bucket,” they note.
To save $100 billion annually—one-tenth of the $1 trillion of cost cuts bruited by Musk—would mean sacking a quarter of the federal workforce, some 750,000 employees, according to an analysis by Macquarie economists David Doyle, Chinara Azizova, and Ric Deverell. To realize the $1 trillion goal would require a 30% reduction in nondefense spending (excluding entitlements such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid); a 15% cut in defense outlays; and a 15% cut in social spending such as entitlements. They also note a GAO estimate that between $233 billion and $421 billion annually was lost to fraud between 2018 and 2022, which included pandemic spending.
10. Woop Method
20 Years Ago, Psychologists Developed the WOOP Method. It’s Still the Best Way to Control Your Emotions to Reach Your Goals Sometimes the biggest barrier to our success is our own feelings.
Why don’t more of us reach the big goals we set for ourselves? Sure, sometimes the answer is lack of ability. It is entirely possible you are not smart enough to be an astrophysicist or strong enough for the NFL. But for many everyday goals the issue isn’t ability, it’s emotions.
You want to be bolder with your business, but fear of failure sets you back. You want to improve your relationships, but your anger keeps blowing things up. You mean to make it to the gym, but somehow you just can’t muster the self-control to get off the couch.
Feelings can be a powerful fuel to propel us forward, but they can also be the hurdle that blocks our way. How do you overcome that hurdle to finally achieve your dreams?
Twenty years ago, a pair of psychologists came up with a simple four-step procedure for clearing emotional blocks so you can reach your goals. After a couple of decades of research and testing, it remains one of the most reliable ways to turn wishes into reality.
Actually, it’s OK to bottle up your emotions sometimes. First off, it’s important to clear up a common misconception. In our enlightened age of mental health awareness and widespread therapy speak, most of us have heard it’s a bad idea to bottle up your feelings. But that’s actually not quite right, according to neuroscientist and author Ethan Kross.
Yes, it’s a bad idea to permanently deny or ignore emotions. The sadness, rage, shame, or anxiety you’re hiding from will just leak out elsewhere in unpredictable and destructive ways. But as Kross recently explained in an interview with NPR, “It’s a myth that when we’re experiencing some big emotion, we’ve got to get to the bottom of it right away.”
If getting something off your chest is constructively helping you, by all means keep going. But if you’re just turning the same worries, fear, or pain over and over in your mind without any improvement or resolution, taking an intentional step back from your feelings is often a good idea.
Consider that some of the most respected and long-lasting studies of both adults and children suggest that the ability to recognize your emotions and then set them aside to deal with them later with a clearer mind is one of the most important skills for a happy and successful life.
“You don’t have to choose between only confronting immediately or avoiding chronically,” Kross concludes.
20 years of science supports the WOOP Method If the answer to the troubling emotions that keep getting in the way of reaching your goals isn’t to ignore or fruitlessly fret over them, what is the solution? Twenty years ago, a pair of psychologists out of New York University—Gabriele Oettingen and Peter Gollwitzer—developed a protocol for shifting the difficult feelings that so often sabotage our goals.
Over the past two decades it’s been tested in a variety of settings, from classrooms to hospitals to gyms, and repeatedly found to be effective. The method goes by the handy acronym WOOP, which stands for:
Wish – Outcome – Obstacle – Plan
The idea is to use this framework not when you’re in the heat of a difficult moment, but a bit later when you’re calm enough to think through your feelings and plan a constructive path forward. It works in a variety of settings and benefits from repetition. The more you practice it, the better you’ll become at using it.
How to use the WOOP method to reach your goals The method is simple. The first step is to identify your Wish. What is the attainable but ambitious goal you are trying to reach that keeps getting derailed? Once you’ve got that clearly in mind, go a step deeper by moving on to the Outcome. If you achieve this wish, how will you feel? Understanding why you want something is one of the best motivators out there.
Now that you understand what you’re aiming for and why, move on to identifying the internal Obstacle standing in your way. Maybe this is a nagging sense of unworthiness, a feeling of being overwhelmed at the scale of the project, or a worry about the judgement of others. Whatever it is, put a label on it, so you have a clear sense of what’s holding you back.
The last and crucial step is making a clear and specific Plan to overcome that obstacle. Often this will take the form of: When [specific time or occasion], then I will [concrete, feasible action].
Perhaps when you feel yourself losing your temper, you can leave the room for 30 seconds. If you want to stop feeling constantly overwhelmed, you could decide to spend five minutes over coffee each morning laying out three priorities for the day. If fear of failure is stopping you from embarking on a difficult project, you could plan a specific time to reach out to a mentor and talk through your worries.
Is that a dream or a goal? The coach of boxing champ Evander Holyfield once asked him if becoming the best in the world was “a dream or a goal? Because there’s a difference.”
Dreams are things we idly imagine and hope may one day happen. When difficult emotions or circumstances arise, we often abandon them. Goals, on the other hand, are concrete objectives with workmanlike plans to attain them.
WOOP is a method for, essentially, transforming flimsy, easily derailed dreams into sturdier goals. The key is to get out of pointless and repetitive brain loops—whether they’re fantasies of success of anxieties about your shortcomings—and move on to making actionable plans to deal with whatever obstacles you face. If you do that, you’re far less likely to get knocked off course by difficult emotions.
5. Robinhood +438% One-Year…Crypto and Options Trading Lead
StockCharts
6. Ethereum -25% YTD….Gives Back All Post-Election Gains
StockCharts
7. High Flyer…Trade Desk TTD -42% from Highs
StockCharts
8. Russia Outspends All of EU Combined on Defense
Semafor
9. Wall Street’s digital lifelines: How severed undersea cables could be a big problem for the global financial system
With $10 trillion at stake daily, the mysterious undersea cable breaks add another threat that financial services players must protect themselves against. ·
There have been a series of mysterious incidents of severed undersea cables.
Damage to undersea cables could negatively impact the global financial ecosystem.
Security and policy experts say what it could mean for finance firms and how to mitigate the risk.
While much of banking and trading seems to have gone digital, the global financial system still depends on a vast network of undersea cables that crisscross the sea floor. Carrying $10 trillion worth of transactions every day and powering Wall Street’s global trading and communications, these cables have had little mainstream attention as they lay deep in the world’s oceans for decades quietly serving their purpose.
But now these cables, many no thicker than a garden hose, are at the center of a series of mysterious incidents that have Wall Street security leaders and consultants on high alert.
Tankers dragging their anchors have severed undersea cables in recent months in the Baltic Sea and East China Sea. Officials in Europe accuse Russia of sabotaging the infrastructure, while Taiwan has said it suspects China is behind the damage off of its northern shores. The cables are part of a network spanning about 745,000 miles that transmits 95% of the world’s data. The snap of a few subsea cables has knocked islands the size of Taiwan offline, cutting off access to communications, internet, and banking.
1. BABA Stock Breaks Above David Tepper China Call Highs… +40% YTD
StockCharts
2. Chinese Internet KWEB +17% YTD…Not Yet at Previous David Tepper Highs
StockCharts
Bloomberg
3. Coke vs. Pepsi War…KO Straight Up vs. PEP
StockCharts
4. European Financials +13% Year to Date…New Highs in Chart
StockCharts
5. Leverage Long ETFs at Record Levels
There are is a record ~$95bn in leveraged long ETFs vs. just ~$9bn in their bearish counterparts.
Bloomberg
6. The Number of People Turning 65 Every Day by Country
Wealth of Common Sense
7. Work From Home Number Staying Sticky at 30%
Via Wolf Street: Of all full-time employees, 13% were full WFH in late 2024, while 26% were in a hybrid-WFH situation, so about 39% were at partially or fully WFH, according to the study. The remaining 61% were working fully on site.
Wolf Street
8. Google says U.S. is Facing a Power Capacity crisis in AI Race against China
Via CNBC: The U.S. is facing a power capacity crisis as the tech sector races against China to achieve dominance in artificial intelligence, an executive leading the energy strategy of Alphabet’s Google unit said this week.
The emergence of China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence firm sent the shares of major power companies tumbling in late January on speculation that its AI model is cheaper and more efficient. But Caroline Golin, Google’s global head of energy market development, said more power is needed now to keep up with Beijing.
“We are in a capacity crisis in this country right now, and we are in an AI race against China right now,” Golin told a conference hosted by the Nuclear Energy Institute in New York City on Tuesday.
Alphabet’s Google unit embarked four years ago on an ambitious goal to power its operations around the clock with carbon-free renewable energy, but the company faced a major obstacle that forced a turn toward nuclear power.
Google ran into a “very stark reality that we didn’t have enough capacity on the system to power our data centers in the short term and then potentially in the long term,” Golin said.
9. Top Import Partners for Each U.S. State
Visual Capitalist
10. 8 Mistakes to Avoid Making During Work Meetings, According to an Etiquette Expert
There are lots of things to avoid doing during work meetings. Business Insider asked an etiquette expert about the mistakes to avoid making during work meetings.
Whether in-person or virtual, work meetings are almost always a guaranteed part of professional life. Unfortunately, employees can unintentionally undermine their professionalism during meetings in several ways.
To help you avoid these missteps, Business Insider asked etiquette expert Arden Clise to share some common mistakes people make during work meetings. Here’s what she said.
Showing up late
When it comes to meetings, a common faux pas is showing up late and disrespecting the time of others.
“If everyone’s arriving late, then you can’t start a meeting on time, and you don’t accomplish what you need to accomplish,” Clise said.
Clise told BI that she recommends facilitators always start the meetings on time to reward those who show up when they should.
Turning the camera off in virtual meetings
In a virtual meeting, keeping your camera off can be seen as rude.
“I think it’s really disrespectful to just remain with your video off when you’re addressed and when you are speaking,” Clise told BI.
She added there might be a few exceptions, like if your kid just came in the room or you have coworkers around you, but your camera should generally be on — especially when you’re talking.
Trying to multitask during the meeting
According to Clise, it’s not polite to juggle other tasks while in a meeting. This includes using your phone, jotting down notes unrelated to the meeting, or thinking about other to-do list items.
“If you’re not present in the meeting, if you’re doing other work, you’re not going to hear what’s going on. You’re not going to participate because you’re missing that opportunity to,” Clise told BI.
In general, she said to avoid anything that can pull your attention elsewhere.
Excessively typing in the chat
Another etiquette mistake to avoid in virtual meetings is overusing the chat box. Clise said that continual messages can be distracting for others, so it’s best to keep chat box usage to a minimum. She said that if you have a question for one person, sending them a direct message is much better than drawing everyone’s attention to it in the chat.
“Chatting is like a side conversation in an in-person meeting,” Clise told BI.
Dominating the conversation
It’s important to give others the chance to talk.
Another big mistake to avoid is dominating the meeting and not allowing others to share their thoughts. Clise said it can be extremely frustrating if one person constantly shares ideas or asks questions without letting others talk.
If you’re running a meeting, it’s also important to make sure everyone is given a chance to speak
Interrupting others while they’re speaking
Interrupting, especially in virtual meetings, is a common misstep.
“It’s hard sometimes in a meeting, particularly a virtual meeting, to know when someone is finished or going to be finished. But if you’re someone who regularly interrupts people … that can be really offensive,” Clise said.
Even if it’s accidental, it’s essential to avoid talking over other people.
Putting quiet team members on the spot
Clise said it’s never OK to point out that someone is quiet in a meeting. Doing so might make them feel uncomfortable, and it can come across as though you’re trying to make them look bad.
Instead, politely ask their thoughts on a certain point, reassuring them that they’ve had great ideas in the past, so they feel comfortable speaking up.
Not following through on assigned tasks after the meeting
Don’t drop the ball after the meeting is over.
After leaving a meeting, it’s crucial to follow through on the tasks you agreed to handle.
Clise said that sometimes, people forget to follow through on action items because they didn’t take notes, make a to-do list, or add items to their calendars. However, forgetting to follow through can come across as disrespectful to others.
“It doesn’t reflect well on you if you’re not holding up your end of the work tasks. If you’re not getting work done, you’re not helping your coworkers, and you’re not allowing the company to accomplish what it needs to accomplish,” she said.
1. Tesla -32% from Highs…Approaching Support Level…Gives Back Post-Election Gains
StockCharts
2. Gender Divide in Crypto
According to a Pew Research survey based on February 2024 data, men under age 50 are more likely than older men and women of all ages to have used cryptocurrency. The gender divide is notable even among young investors. Forty-two percent of men ages 18 to 29 have invested in, traded, or used cryptocurrency, compared with 17% of women in the same age range, Pew said. Interestingly, just 17% of all U.S. adults say they have invested in, traded, or used a cryptocurrency, according to the 2024 survey. That was statistically unchanged since 2021, Pew said.
Barron’s
3. 8 of the 10 Most Downloaded Financial Apps are Crypto Apps
From MarketWatch: Granted, institutional investors are not holding such cryptocurrencies, and memecoins account for just under 2% of the entire crypto market, by BCA’s calculations. But the strategists say the surge in memecoins is a symptom of a larger trend, that consensus is now very bullish on crypto: The bitcoin ETFs were the most successful exchange-traded-fund launches in history, with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink saying big investors are discussing whether to allocate up to 5% of their portfolios to bitcoin. Fink said bitcoin’s price could climb as high as $700,000.
“We are concerned that this raging optimism is a sign that we are near a top,” says the BCA team, which points out the supply of bitcoin in profit is over 90% — historically a proportion at which tops have formed in bitcoin prices. Eight of the top 10 most downloaded financial apps are crypto trading apps, they add.
MarketWatch
4. Firms are Not Mentioning Inflation on Earnings Calls
Few firms are mentioning inflation on earnings calls.
Bloomberg
5. Truflation Dropping
Andreas Steno
Google
6. Bearish Sentiment at 52 Week High
The Irrelevant Investor
7. China Biotech Transactions Go from 5% to 30% of Global Market
Via the WSJ: China’s rise in biotech has been years in the making, but it is now impossible to ignore. In 2020, less than 5% of large pharmaceutical transactions worth $50 million or more upfront involved China. By 2024, that number had surged to nearly 30%, according to DealForma. A decade from now, many drugs hitting the U.S. market will have originated in Chinese labs.
WSJ
8. $10,000 EVs Made in China
Semafor
9. YouTube Viewership On TV Screens Exceeds Mobile For First Time In U.S.
Deadline
10. Doing This for 30 Minutes a Day Can Unlock Your Full Potential
Taking just 30 minutes a day to learn something new improved my life
Via Addicted to Success: Between the demands of work, life, and the never-ending cycle of bills, we often put our development, learning, and self-improvement at the bottom of our daily to-do lists.
When I was younger, I typically justified this in two primary ways:
Lack of Control – I believed I didn’t have a choice. Things were beyond my control. Excuses like “I’m just so busy,” “My boss is unfair,” or “I’m just not as fast as my colleagues” were my go-to justifications.
Fear – I was afraid of not being next in line for a promotion, of not getting my next raise, of not being enough. Although I never missed a promotion, I wasn’t exactly the healthiest individual. Years later, burnt out, overworked, and with no sense of who I was outside of work, I collapsed.
It took years (and thousands spent in therapy) to realize both excuses stemmed from the same place—a deep-rooted insecurity.
Self-Worth & Work
Unbeknownst to me at the time, my self-worth was directly tied to my job. My value depended on what my boss thought, how hard they saw me working, and how much time I spent in the office (this was clearly before COVID).
As I’m sure anyone in a similar situation can attest, I allowed the allure of winning to eclipse everything else in my life including myself.
For those who are good at it, business is fun. Winning contracts, pursuing leads, figuring out a new code base, it’s all exhilarating! But that excitement wasn’t enough to compensate for everything else I was losing.
In the grand scheme of a universe that’s at least 13.8 billion years old (and likely older), it’s silly to think anyone including your boss, can dictate your self-worth or justify your existence.
Think about it. For all the great philosophical minds that have come before us—Jesus, Buddha, Mohammad, Confucius, the ancient Greeks—no one can definitively explain why we are here, as a species or as individuals.
Before You Freak Out
Years ago, this uncertainty would have terrified me. The not knowing used to bring anxiety.
Now? I’ve realized it’s one of the best parts of life: No one can tell me or you why we are here. Which means we get to figure it out for ourselves—if we choose to.
Most of us got to where we are today by doing what we were supposed to. By following the rules.
But in doing so, we likely left pieces of ourselves behind. Pieces we miss even if we don’t realize it yet.
The good news? You can start rediscovering those pieces today by setting aside time to learn something new.
30 Minutes of Mastery
Taking just 30 minutes a day to learn something new improved my mental health, sharpened my skills, and, most importantly, helped me find myself again.
Here’s how you can do the same:
Step 1: Identify Your Peak Time
Find the time of day when you’re at your sharpest, most alert, and most capable.
For most, this is an hour or two after waking up.
Others hit their peak right after lunch.
Observe yourself for a few weeks. Track your energy levels throughout the day in a journal. Your peak time will naturally reveal itself.
Step 2: Block 30 Minutes for Learning
Once you’ve found your peak time:
Block 30 minutes of it on your calendar every day.
Only schedule a week at a time to allow flexibility for unexpected changes.
Set a recurring meeting with yourself—just like you would for an important client or project.
Step 3: Show Up & Protect Your Time
This is the hard part.
Show up every day (at least three times a week, minimum).
Don’t let distractions cancel your session.
Don’t use holidays or busy schedules as excuses.
Don’t waste this time responding to emails or texts.
Instead, use it to learn something meaningful, robotics, graphic design, mindfulness, coding, creativity, whatever calls to you. Trust your intuition.
Step 4: Observe & Adjust
As Annie Dillard said, “How we spend our days is, of course, how we spend our lives.”
By prioritizing yourself and daily learning, you’re making an investment that will pay dividends for you, your career, and society as a whole.After all, if we’ve all left pieces of ourselves behind along the way, maybe it’s no wonder life isn’t as fulfilling as it could be. The choice is yours are you ready to reclaim those lost pieces?
1. Top 10% of U.S. Stocks are 75% of Entire Market
Market Ear
2. Mag 7—Earnings-First Quarter with No Positive Surprises Since 2022
Chart Rounding Top Close Below 50 Day.
StockCharts
3. This Chart Shows Mag 7 ETF vs. KWEB Chinese Tech Stocks…Closed Below 200 Day
StockCharts
4. Homebuilders XHB -8% Since Election
StockCharts
5. T-Mobile +694% over 10 Years
Via Barron’s: Why is a phone company trading like a member of the Magnificent Seven? T-Mobile US stock is up 54% in a year and 694% over the past decade. That beats Amazon over the first time frame, Meta Platforms over the second, and Alphabet and Apple over both.
StockCharts
6. China 5% of Global Manufacturing to 32% Today
Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank
Thirty years ago, the West and its allies controlled nearly three-quarters of global manufacturing. Today their share is less than half. China alone has gone from 5% of global manufacturing in 1995 to 32% today, more than double the share of the United States. When China’s dominance was limited to toys and textiles, and even laptops and smartphones this did not raise alarm, but the scale and speed with which China has broken into high-value added manufacturing is becoming a concern in Western capitals.
China’s 32% share of global manufacturing masks more relevant and staggering facts. Just a few here: more than half the world’s industrial robots are installed in China; China dominates in shipbuilding, with 80% of export market share, and over 200 times the production capacity of the US; the number of 5G base stations installed in China is estimated at around 4 million compared to about 100,000 in the US, despite both countries having almost equivalent land mass.
One key industry where China has lagged is in high-end semiconductors where the US and its allies (Taiwan and Korea) still dominate by a significant margin, and where the desire to limit China’s gains led to US export controls. But again, China’s development of Deep Seek showed how these disadvantages could be circumnavigated.
7. ETF Money Flows: Bitcoin 5x Next Ticker
Ned Davis Research
8. LinkedIn’s $16B Business
Chartr
9. January Effect Visual
Chart of the day.
FundStrat
10. 200 Emails…
Muscling your way through Via Seth Godin’s blog: When there’s an overwhelming amount of incoming, it’s possible to bear down and simply get through it. 200 emails because of a product launch. A project goes viral and there are a lot of fires to put out. A deadline is imminent and it’s going to be a long night… But when the incoming becomes chronic, it’s simply not possible. The problem isn’t a lack of effort. The problem is the system. Forty years ago, anyone working in an office had to work their way through the pink while-you-were-out slips and the inbox. That’s it. Now, there’s exponentially more, particularly if you are engaging with anyone outside of your organization. The only solution is to change the system. Simply shut down some channels of communication. Hand off entire swaths of engagement to someone else. Not next week, but now. Not for awhile, but forever. Attention doesn’t scale, no matter how hard we try.
1. Mag 7 Capital Spending Equal to U.S. Government R&D
We are in the AI buildout, with total capital investment by the “magnificent seven” mostly mega cap tech stocks on par with government R&D. See the chart. The release of a seemingly more efficient AI model by Chinese startup DeepSeek has renewed questions about AI capex. While these questions are valid, more spending is likely needed to unlock AI innovation – recent developments don’t change our view. Broad AI adoption is still to come, and we have barely scratched the surface of all the potential AI use cases. Yet AI advances mean these models could be evolving faster than expected. That could push AI into the adoption phase sooner and is why the AI narrative and the market’s reaction could change quickly.
BlackRock
2. Tariffs vs. Trump I
Bloomberg via Barchart
3. Temu and Shein Big Chinese Retailers at Risk of New Tariffs…..Shein Revenue Growth
Statista
4. TEMU Revenue Growth
Backllnko
5. 75% of American Adults Use Amazon Prime
Chartr
6. FMC -33% Yesterday…Stock Traded Above $100 2020-2023….$35 Last
StockCharts
7. Europe Beating American Market to Start Year…But Just Got Back to Pre-Election Levels
StockCharts
8. Agencies Share of Civil Service Jobs
Semafor
9. Illegal Border Crossings Hit 2020 Levels
Eric Finnigan
10. Diet Strategies that Enhance Sleep
ViaConsumer Reports: When you build your diet around foods that fit those criteria, you end up with something that looks like the Mediterranean diet—a way of eating that emphasizes plant-based foods, including lots of fruits, vegetables, legumes, whole grains, and healthy sources of fat (such as olive oil, nuts, and avocados), while limiting red meat, sweets, and refined carbohydrates (such as foods made with white flour). Indeed, studies examining the connection between this pattern of eating and better sleep have shown promising results.
For example, a 2020 study published in the journal Nutrients followed more than 400 women in the U.S. for a year to see whether compliance with the Mediterranean diet affected their sleep quality. Those with the greatest adherence to this way of eating had 30 percent lower sleep disturbance scores (meaning they got more solid rest) than those with the lowest adherence.
Certain categories of foods—namely fruits, vegetables, and legumes—stood out for their positive effects on various measures of sleep quality. “Legume consumption was associated with better sleep overall,” says Brooke Aggarwal, EdD, an assistant professor of medical sciences in the division of cardiology at the Columbia University Medical Center in New York City and one of the study authors. “And the effects were dose-dependent—the more servings of legumes they ate, the more significant improvement they had in sleep efficiency.” (Sleep efficiency is the ratio of how many hours you sleep to how many hours you spend in bed.)
A 2024 review and analysis of 37 studies published in Sleep Medicine Reviews bolstered the link between a healthy diet and better sleep. Following a Mediterranean or other high-quality quality diet reduced the risk of insomnia symptoms by 9 to 34 percent.
But it’s not that the Mediterranean diet necessarily has magic abilities to enhance sleep. “It’s the healthy components of that way of eating—more fruits and vegetables, legumes, whole grains, and healthy fats,” St. Onge says. “You can focus on eating those foods in any predominantly plant-based diet.”
How Better Eating Leads to Better Sleep
There are several possible explanations for how a healthy plant-based diet enhances sleep.
“All of the foods plentiful in the Mediterranean diet are rich sources of fiber, which has beneficial effects on the gut microbiome,” Aggarwal says. A healthier gut and better sleep are connected by various mechanisms.
“The gut and brain communicate via the gut-brain axis,” she says. “Specific to sleep, the gut microbiome is thought to send signals that help to regulate circadian rhythms.”
Circadian rhythms, part of the body’s internal clock, are controlled by daylight and darkness and affect many body processes, including hormonal activity and the sleep-wake cycle. Additionally, the gut is involved in the synthesis of serotonin, a neurotransmitter that promotes better mood and is an important component for regulating sleep.
Higher fruit and vegetable consumption as part of a plant-based diet also means a greater intake of beneficial antioxidant compounds called polyphenols. Emerging research points to an association between these compounds and improvements in sleep. “Polyphenols have effects on the autonomic nervous system and can increase heart rate variability [the fluctuation in time between heartbeats],” St. Onge says. Higher heart rate variability is a sign you’re in a relaxed state and is associated with better sleep quality, she says. Some polyphenols also act on receptors in the brain that promote sleep.
Plant foods can even enhance the production of the sleep hormone melatonin. Legumes, soy, leafy greens, and seeds are all rich sources of tryptophan, an amino acid (a building block of protein) that the body uses to make melatonin. Turkey and dairy are often cited as the best sources of tryptophan. But the tryptophan in those high-protein foods isn’t actually synthesized as efficiently in the brain as the tryptophan from plant foods. That may be in part because you also need B vitamins and carbohydrates to process tryptophan, both of which you get when you eat a diet rich in fruits, vegetables, legumes, and whole grains.
Eating Habits That Can Wreck Your Sleep
In addition to leaving you feeling tired, not getting enough sleep affects various processes in your brain and body that can lead to unhealthy food choices. Sleeping too few hours may increase hormones that stimulate appetite as well as suppress those that signal satiety. At the same time, short sleep durations appear to activate the reward centers in the brain, increasing cravings for high-sugar, high-fat snack foods.
“If you have good sleep, you tend to make better choices in all aspects of your life—eating healthier foods, taking the stairs instead of the elevator,” St. Onge says. “And when you don’t have good sleep, you tend to go for the easier, less healthy choices—more processed foods, more snacks, more sugar, less exercise. And this vicious cycle perpetuates itself.” A habitually unhealthy eating pattern (that may be exacerbated by not sleeping well) can, in turn, lead to more sleepless nights.
Along with obvious sleep-wreckers like alcohol and caffeine, foods that are high in fat, sugar, and saturated fat have been shown to affect sleep quality negatively. For example, a small study led by St. Onge, published in the Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine in 2016, found that when participants ate more sugar, refined carbs, and saturated fat, it took them longer to fall asleep and they spent less time in the deep, restorative short-wave sleep phase.
In another study, published in 2020 in the Journal of the American Heart Association, researchers looked at the diets and sleep quality of almost 500 women. They found that those who reported poor sleep quality also had worse-quality diets. For example, women who took more than an hour to fall asleep consumed over 400 calories more per day than those who routinely fell asleep in 15 minutes or less. The poor sleepers not only ate more calories per day but also consumed more sugar, more saturated fat, and less fiber.
Diets rich in ultraprocessed foods—packaged foods that are made with ingredients not typically found in home kitchens—have also been linked to insomnia. A 2024 study published in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics found that people with chronic insomnia had a higher percentage of UPFs in their diets than those without insomnia. Every 10 percent increase in UPFs in the diet was linked to a 9 percent increase in insomnia risk in men and a 6 percent increased risk in women.
Can Specific Foods Help You Sleep?
Over the years there have been various studies about how eating individual foods could ease you into slumber. Although these studies were typically small in scale (and often funded by the food industry), they usually resulted in lots of splashy headlines touting the miraculous effect of certain foods—such as tart cherries or kiwifruit. But experts caution against looking to a single food as nature’s sleeping pill.
“I like to advocate for better overall dietary patterns for better health and better sleep,” St. Onge says. “Including those foods can’t hurt, but you can’t negate the effect of a day’s worth of a bad diet with a single kiwi before bed.”
1. Big Tech Share of Revenue from Outside the U.S.
FT
2. Another Look at Current Valuations: High But Not Near Internet Bubble Levels
The Daily Chartbook
3. Nvidia Down -13% in 2025
4. U.S. Imports from China by Category
Apollo Academy
5. California Tesla Car Sales Dropping -17% from Two Years Ago
But Tesla sales in California dropped in Q4 to 43,658 vehicles, the lowest since Q3 2022, down by nearly 8% from a year ago, and down by 17% from two years ago, according to vehicle registrations released by the California new vehicle dealer association CNCDA.
Wolf Street
6. Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds
Semafor
7. Top Countries for VC Funding vs. Population
PitchBook
8. We Showed the Gold Breakout this Week….Next to Watch in Junior Gold Miners…Getting Close
StockCharts
9. Where Declining Rents are Improving Affordability
Austin, Texas is No.1 among the “most affordable metros,” which Redfin defines as placeswhere renters typically earn more money than they need in order to afford a typical rental unit.
The typical renter in the area makes $69,781 annually, which is 25.14% higher than the $55,760 the site estimates is required to afford a typical apartment there.
Austin is followed by Houston; Dallas; Salt Lake City; Raleigh, North Carolina; Denver; Phoenix; Washington, D.C.; Baltimore; and Nashville.
CNBC
10. Why the aging process spikes at 44 and 60 (and how to stop it)
Researchers have discovered two spikes in our ageing. Here’s how to turn back the clock.
Via The Telegraph: In our 40s, our ability to process alcohol diminishes and our skin and muscle texture weakens
It’s no revelation that our health malfunctions as the years advance. But a study from Stanford University has challenged the traditional idea that we steadily age over time. The research team extensively monitored molecular changes over a period of up to seven years in people (male and female) aged 25 to 75, and discovered two spikes in our ageing – one at around 44 and the other at 60.
Prof Michael Snyder, an expert in genetics and senior author of the study, says: “You really do want to take care of yourself as you approach these periods. Eating better will help with the drop in lipid metabolism which shows up in the 40s. And strength training is important, especially as you hit your 60s, when there is a loss of muscle mass. Always try to track yourself with specific check-ups, so you can make sure things are going fine during these periods.”
No one wants to decline with age, so intervention is key. And when it comes to health, time seems to be of the essence.
What to watch out for in your 40s
While menopause often gets the blame for the sudden increase in health concerns amongst midlife women, the Stanford report revealed a similar jump in age-related issues among 40-something men. It also confirmed what we already know: our ability to process alcohol diminishes, skin and muscle texture weakens, and the way we deal with caffeine, fats and sugars is compromised. Other changes include:
Our ability to process fats and sugars drops off a cliff
Steak lovers, look away. The Stanford research tells us that shifts in our lipid metabolism means our body finds it harder to process these as we age, which can result in high cholesterol levels.
When the body doesn’t manage cholesterol, it sits along the artery walls and clogs them. This puts more strain on the heart to pump blood and so blood pressure rises. Foods containing saturated fats (for example, processed meat, dairy products, baked and fried goods) are on the culprit list.
After 40, it’s worth keeping an eye on your metabolic health, by signing up for a free NHS Health Check every five years, which includes a blood pressure and cholesterol check.
Bones get weaker
The Stanford study shows that musculoskeletal issues shoot up after 40. The Royal Osteoporosis Society (ROS) confirms that we reach our peak bone health at the age of 30. As we get older, the tissue inside our bones naturally declines, but this especially true for women around the menopause when levels of oestrogen decrease. And while osteoporosis disproportionately affects females, anyone can suffer. The ROS says: “Data shows one in two women and one in five men over 50 will break a bone because of osteoporosis; it is an escalating public health crisis.”
Weight-bearing exercises with impact, such as walking or jogging, and muscle-strengthening exercise, such as Pilates or weight training, will keep bones strong, and the earlier in life you start the better – but it’s never too late. Build up to 20-30 minutes muscle-strengthening exercise a day, specifically working on your legs, arms and spine.
Foods high in vitamin D (for example, oily fish, red meat and egg yolks) help your body to absorb and use calcium, which is necessary for strong bones. Between the end of September and the beginning of April, when sunlight is scarce in the UK, you should consider taking a daily supplement of 10 micrograms (sometimes called 400 international units) to boost your levels.
The second wave of ageing in your 60s
As we hit our 60s, our immune function takes a dive, our ability to process carbs becomes ever more sluggish while our heart and kidneys are not as robust as they once were. Fortunately, there’s still time to reboot our health.
Type 2 diabetes is more prevalent
There are significant changes in our metabolism as the years tot up. And our decreased ability to process carbs is linked to a greater risk of Type 2 diabetes. According to Diabetes UK, there are 4.4 million people currently living with a diabetes diagnosis and a further 1.2 million with Type 2 diabetes yet to be diagnosed.
Douglas Twenefour, the head of care at Diabetes UK, states, “Type 2 diabetes is more prevalent as we get older as a result of a combination of increasing insulin resistance and a reducing ability to make the right amount of insulin. Insulin resistance is where the insulin that is produced does not work properly, and in older people, this could be due to being less physically active and more sedentary. It’s not unusual to lose muscle with age, but this can make it harder for the cells to absorb glucose from the blood, leading to higher blood glucose levels over time which increases the risk for Type 2 diabetes. A positive solution would be to do strength-building exercises at least two days a week.”
Kidney disease risk rises after 64
An unhealthy lifestyle can be tough on the kidneys, mainly because their primary job is to clean out the bad stuff – they filter about 180 litres of blood every day. Fiona Loud, the policy director of Kidney Care UK, says: “Natural ageing means we lose about 1 per cent of our kidney function year on year. But if things go really wrong, the average age for people to get kidney failure is 64-85. Many people are unaware that diabetes is the most common cause of kidney damage, plus high blood pressure is a significant risk factor, so anyone with these conditions can be vulnerable.”
Always check your urine. Healthy urine is a lighter yellowish shade; a darker colour could indicate dehydration. Continual urinary infections can also take their toll on the kidneys, and are common amongst older people. It’s extremely important to stay well hydrated, as dehydration can lead to crystals which affect kidney function.
Outside of conditions such as diabetes that put people at risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD), the main offenders for kidney damage are too much salt in the diet, sugary drinks and smoking, combined with a sedentary lifestyle; even some medications like ibuprofen should be monitored as overuse can be damaging. Warning signs include: anaemia, tiredness, nausea, foamy urine, increased blood pressure, puffy eyes and swollen legs. There is no cure for kidney failure, so prevention is definitely better.
Heart disease and stroke
Age is the main risk factor for heart disease. The ability for the heart to regenerate itself tails off, so any disease or trauma is significant. Our arteries can also harden and become narrow with a build-up of plaque which can lead to stroke.
Joanne Whitmore, a senior cardiac nurse at the British Heart Foundation, advises us to get moving, eat a healthy diet, stop smoking and cut down on booze. She says: “The strain on the heart can also be reduced by lowering cholesterol, blood pressure and maintaining a healthy weight. Aim for 150 minutes of moderate intensity activity a week. Eat smaller amounts of meat – if you eat more than 90g of red and processed meat per day, it is recommended that you reduce this to 70g or less.
“If you want to quit smoking, get in touch with your local stop smoking services. They’ll provide you with support and boost your chances of success. Stick within the recommended guidelines of no more than 14 units of alcohol per week. Drinking more on a regular basis can cause abnormal heart rhythms, high blood pressure, palpitations, damage to your heart muscle and stroke.”
Dr Maeva May, an associate director of system engagement at the Stroke Association,adds: “A stroke happens when the blood supply to part of the brain is cut off, killing brain cells. Nine out of 10 strokes are preventable – there is enormous potential for reducing strokes if the risk factors are better detected, treated, and managed.”
Cancer risk rises after 60
The study picked up a drop in the function of our immune system, which can mean a rise in the risk of cancer. The advanced years will see us less able to fight infections and illnesses as the body produces fewer immune cells, while the ones we do have are less robust. Maxine Lenza, a health information manager at Cancer Research UK, explains: “The possibility of cancer increases as we age because cancer starts when cells in our bodies get damaged. The older people get, the more time there is for cell damage to build up, which can lead to cancer.”
Maintaining a healthy immune system is your golden ticket. Sleeping and eating well, reducing stress, keeping up with your vaccines, exercising and stopping smoking all are positive steps towards being fighting fit.
1. On DeepSeek News/AI Sell-Off Day…Retail Investors Bought $562M in NVDA Stock
Tipranks
2. Canadian Currency Weakness Offsetting Any Tariffs? Chart of Canadian Dollar vs. U.S. Dollar Straight Down
StockCharts
3. Trudeau Post After 30-Day Delay Announced
Bloomberg
4. Mexican Peso Weakness Offsetting Tariffs….Peso vs. U.S. Dollar Straight Down
StockCharts
5. 80% of Mexican Exports Go to U.S…Mexican Stock Market Down -30% Before Tariffs
StockCharts
6. U.S. Exports to Mexico Mostly to Texas
The United States and Mexico trade over $800 billion annually in goods (nearly $300 billion just from the top six exporting states, as shown in the graph above). More than one million US jobs are tied to cross-border commerce and over five million US jobs depend on commerce with Mexico, all intertwined in a highly diversified supply chain that keeps everything from cars to avocados flowing.
Atlantic Council
7. Goldman Global Clients Bullish on U.S….Much Higher than Recent History
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
8. Who Owns the Cloud?
The Capitalist
9. SuperBowl Tickets Down -30 to 50%
Via CNN: The Kansas City Chiefs might make history this weekend, but ticket prices aren’t reflecting that.
The cheapest ticket forSuper Bowl LIX in New Orleans has fallen below $4,000 on the secondary market, according to reseller TickPick, marking a 30% decline over the past week — and more than 50% cheaper compared to last year’s record-breaking Super Bowl.
The Chiefs, whoface the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, are hoping to be the first team to win three successive Super Bowl rings. Despite that historic feat on the line, fans apparentlyaren’t excited to splash out big bucks.
There are a few potential reasons related to this year’s host city — and perhaps a slight dose of Chiefs fatigue.
Consistency compounds while occasional brilliance fades. You don’t need more time. You need more focus. Time isn’t the constraint. Your choices are. Great outcomes aren’t built on great days, but on consistent ones. You can’t just count the days when it’s easy. Each day moves you closer to the goal. No day is a hero; no day is a villain. Perfect days don’t compound. Consistent ones do.
You know what’s going great? Gigachad. It’s a memecoin representing, to quote fromgigachad.com, “tokenized masculinity.” A sparse splash page there explains that there is “no intrinsic value or expectation of financial return. There is no formal team or roadmap.” It’s up 91,000% over the past year, with a market value of more than $600 million. I’m leaving out some key fundamentals. There’s also a picture of a guy with a beard on the website, and phrases like, “I don’t care, I win.”
Barron’s
2. A Positive January is Bullish
Of the 32 years where January was up 2% or higher, the S&P 500 finished down in only 4 of those 32 years.
Ryan Detrick
3. Apple Buybacks and Dividends
The world’s largest company by market cap continues to return all its cash flow (and then some) to shareholders.
Over the last 5 years, Apple has returned $550 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, more than any company in the world. Notably, over that same timeframe, Apple has generated $511 billion in free cash flow.
Performance since earnings: +0%.
FinChat.io
4. Update on H100 NVDA Chip Hoarding
Sherwood
5. Money Flows to Bonds 2024
Vanguard
6. Healthcare: 2-Years of Underperformance
Advisor Perspectives
7. Rise of Stablecoins for Cross-Border Cash
Stablecoins have become a crucial part of the global economy. Crypto has great potential for cross-border trade: People in developing markets with unreliable banks, poor financial infrastructure, or high tariffs can use it to buy goods from abroad. But crypto’s unpredictable value makes that difficult. Stablecoins, cryptocurrencies pegged to the value of traditional currencies such as the dollar, allow frictionless transactions without crypto’s usual instability. As a result, major companies, including SpaceX — whose Starlink satellite service is a key source of internet in developing countries — and financial services firm Stripe have begun using stablecoins for some cross-border transactions. The coins are now a $205 billion market, “driven by real-world utility, not speculation,” according to TechCrunch.
Semafor
8. Republican vs. Democrat Congressional Traders
Unusual Whales has created two counterpart ETFs that are meant to track Republican Trading (KRUZ) and Democratic Trading (NANC) based on trading activity disclosures from members of Congress and their spouses. As shown below, the Democratic Trading ETF has outperformed SPY since the ETF’s inception in early 2023 with NANC up 58.9% compared to a 46.6% gain in the S&P 500 (SPY). The Republican Trading ETF (KRUZ) has gained roughly 30%, which means it’s up about half as much as the Democratic ETF. Based on these two ETFs at least, investors have recently been better off following the trading patterns of Democrats rather than Republicans in Congress.
Bespoke Investment Group
9. Tariffs Have Been Eliminated Over the Last Century
Yahoo! Finance
10. Why You Wake Up at 3 a.m., and How to Get Back to Sleep
Psychology Today: Do you often awake at the witching hour? Here’s how to cast off its spell.
KEY POINTS
A key to getting back to sleep is to reframe your response to seeing the time displayed on the clock.
Instead of panicking about what time it is, remember that it’s normal to awaken during the night.
Nervous system regulation strategies (progressive muscle relaxation, mindfulness, deep breathing) can help.
Waking up in the middle of the night isn’t an uncommon experience. About one-third of the general population struggles with it. Many of us have one or two interruptions to slumber that entail a bathroom trip or a reconfiguration of our pillows, sheets, and sleep positions. Some of us, however, wake up wired and can’t for the life of us get back to sleep. It’s the 3 a.m. wide-awakeness that tends to be the bane of many insomniacs’ existence. If this is happening to you on the regular, here are some possible reasons why—plus, some strategies to increase your odds of getting better shut-eye.
1. Age
As we age, we tend to have more frequent awakenings from sleep and stay awake longer during those stretches. This isn’t a cause for panic. It’s just something to be aware of. Relaxation strategies (think: progressive muscle relaxation, light stretching, meditation) and low-stimulation endeavors like reading (an actual book or magazine, not using an e-reader or phone) can help fill that time and prevent the body from being so overly stimulated that it can’t get back to sleep.
2. Blood sugar imbalances
Falling into a hypo or hyperglycemic state during the night has been linkedwith poorer sleep quality. If you have a family history of diabetes or have been diagnosed yourself, consider consulting with your doctor or a specialized dietitian about a helpful pre-bedtime snack to support stabler glucose levels throughout the night. Some evidence suggests that a small serving of peanuts, other nuts, or nut butter before bedtime may help keep blood sugar levels on a more even keel throughout the evening.
3. Alcohol
Alcohol disrupts our sleep, making it more fragmented and robbing us of the REM cycles essential to emotional processing and memory consolidation. Stopping drinking alcohol at least four hours before bedtime can help reduce this negative impact. If insomnia is a regular bugaboo for you, consider forgoing nightcaps as a standard practice.
4. Caffeine
Even if you fall asleep after having an after-dinner coffee, research shows that caffeine can lead to “increased nocturnal awakenings” as well as disrupted REM sleep. Try curbing caffeine intake before the late afternoon (or sooner, if you can) to avoid this.
5. Freaking Out
If your response to seeing the clock (or more likely, your phone) display 3 a.m. (or an equally non-preferred time) is to spiral into a panic, this could explain why you’re not able to fall back asleep. Anxiety and panic cue the release of cortisol, adrenaline, and other excitatory chemicals in the body, shutting down parasympathetic nervous system activity (which we need to have on in order to relax into sleep) and shifting you into fight, flight, or simply freak out mode.
Combat this negative cycle by reframing your interpretation of the so-called witching hour. Instead of seeing being awake as a bad thing, rest assured that it’s natural to awaken at this time, as sleep cycles typically last 90 to 120 minutes and you may simply be emerging from one.
Consider this witching-hour wakefulness an opportunity to practice self-care and relaxation. Each of the below strategies can help downshift your nervous system and lull you back into a dreamy state:
Box breathing. Inhale fully and hold your breath for three to four seconds. Exhale slowly; at the end of that exhalation hold your breath again for three to four seconds. Repeat three to five times.
Bilateral stimulation. Here’s a handy trick from EMDR (eye movement desensitization and reprocessing). Cross your arms over your chest and tap your left and right shoulders or upper arms quickly and firmly for 20 to 30 seconds. Pause, inhale, and let that breath go. Repeat the process several times. Observe any shifts in energy, tension, and relaxation.
Observe your thoughts. Part of why we can’t sleep when we wake up in the middle of the night is because we finally have time to process our thoughts in the absence of the day’s distractions. Getting too preoccupied by them can, however, overstimulate our brains and keep us wide awake. Try watching your thoughts come and go as if they are credits at the end of a movie. You might even imagine them as billboards in a parade. Or leaves on a steam. (This is a handy tip from acceptance and commitment therapy, or ACT.)
Progressive muscle relaxation. Starting with the muscles on your face, tense and hold each muscle group in your body for five (or so) seconds, and then release. From your face, move to your shoulders, your arms, your chest, upper back, abdomen, lower back, groin area, upper and lower legs, ankles, feet, and toes.
The goal is to reduce the hold that negative thought patterns have on your mind and awareness. This helps you amass evidence that you can wind down, even when you awaken, so you can do this more effectively each night it happens.
If you’re really struggling in the staying-asleep department, consider reaching out to a psychotherapist who specializes in insomnia (such as a CBT-i or EMDR therapist or a sleep medicine practitioner). There are many well-researched interventions (some of them mentioned briefly above) that can help you reduce symptoms of insomnia, get better rest, and stop associating the middle of the night with dread and despair.
1. Microsoft: Which Way Will Sideways Pattern Break? Up or Down?
StockCharts
2. Software ETF Below Highs
StockCharts
3. UPS Has Worst Single Day Ever…-40% from Highs
StockCharts
4. GOLD: New High Yesterday
StockCharts
5. Which S&P Sectors Hold the Most Cash?
Visual Capitalist
6. Healthcare: 2-Years of Underperformance
SentimenTrader
7. Factory Construction in the U.S.
Bespoke Premium
8. Military Spending has Almost Doubled Since the 90’s
Statista
9. Share of Religious Nationalism
Pew Research
10. You Want to Do Big Things
Via The Daily Stoic: You want to do big things. You want to achieve. You want to leave your mark on the universe. You want to conquer the world.
This is what Alexander the Great did—literally. And yet where did it get him? Marcus Aurelius took pains to remind himself that the man died and was buried like the rest of us. The band Iron Maiden has a lyric: “Measure your coffin / does it measure up to your lust?” As it happens, there is a much older poem–from Juvenal writing sometime between around 100 AD—who pointed out that in life, while the world was not big enough for Alexander’s ambition, in death, a coffin was sufficient.
No one is saying you should put all your drive aside, that you should not try to do anything. Clearly, Marcus Aurelius tried to be a good person, tried to be a good ruler, tried to be a good philosopher. But that’s the point: He measured his life not by the size of the monument he hoped they would leave to him (and there are some) but instead by the things he controlled.
In the end, it’s not about the empire you build or the fame that outlives you. It’s about the character you lived by, the person you were, and the impact you make on those who matter most. Aim high, but remember: your legacy isn’t measured in the grandness of your ambition—it’s measured in how you live each day.
1. S&P Sector Performance Before Yesterday…Technology Worst Sector
CNBC
2. Equal Weight S&P Still Below Highs
StockCharts
3. India vs. China Chart Swinging Back to China Favor
India (INDA) had big run of outperformance vs. China (FXI). This chart shows FXI vs. INDA.
StockCharts
4. DJT-Trump Media…It Would Not Take Much to Move Lower than Election Day
StockCharts
5. Argentina Budget Surplus
Barchart
6. Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Owns 1.5% of All Listed Stocks Globally
Cut to today, and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is the biggest in the world. It owns 1.5% of all listed stocks globally, making it the world’s largest single investor. Now, following a bumper year for big tech, the fund posted a record-breaking annual profit of ~$222 billionon Wednesday, with the fund’s value topping $1.78 trillion at the time of writing — the equivalent of ~$319,900 for each Norwegian citizen.
Chartr
7. Good Demographics Tailwind….Gen Z and Millennials Earning Above Inflation
John Burns Research
8. U.S. Government Spending as a Share of GDP
Semafor
9. Population Without Electricity
10. Organizing for Urgent
From Seth Godin: There are many ways to prioritize our time and focus, but the easiest and most vivid way is to do the urgent things first.
If we wait until a house plant is sick before we take care of it, though, it’s too late.
Deadlines, loud requests and last-minute interventions are crude forcing functions. They’re inefficient and common.
It’s far more effective to organize for important instead.
We thrive when we do things when we have the most leverage, not when everyone else does. Waiting for trouble means that you’re going to spend your days dealing with trouble.
1. Alibaba releases AI model it claims surpasses DeepSeek-V3
BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese tech company Alibaba (BABA) on Wednesday released a new version of its Qwen 2.5 artificial intelligence model that it claimed surpassed the highly-acclaimed DeepSeek-V3.
The unusual timing of the Qwen 2.5-Max’s release, on the first day of the Lunar New Year when most Chinese people are off work and with their families, points to the pressure Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s meteoric rise in the past three weeks has placed on not just overseas rivals, but also its domestic competition.
StockCharts
2. ASML Good Number Last Night
ASML hit $1110 at high…-40% correction before bounce.
StockCharts
3. Semiconductor ETF …Trading Around 200-Day for 6 Months
StockCharts
4. Diamonds vs. Gold
Isabelnet
5. Average Fed Rate by Decade
Semafor
6. Trade Policy Uncertainty…No Shock Here
The Irrelevant Investor
7. Betting Markets 77% Chance of Canadian Tariffs
Torston Slok Apollo-Betting markets are telling us something about consensus expectations for the coming months. We can then begin to discuss the macroeconomic consequences.
Polymarket
8. Strategic Mineral Supply Chain….Not Many American Flags on Map
Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog
9. Inventory of New Construction Homes for Sale
Wolf Street
10. How Sleep Helps the Brain Build Learning Maps
KEY POINTS
Sleep hygiene fuels neuroplasticity, and quality sleep consolidates new experiences.
Myelination solidifies learning ensuring neural pathways become faster and more efficient.
The formation of habits is influenced by the intentions that guide our behaviors
Via Psychology Today: Our brains have an extraordinary ability to adapt and learn, a process known as neuroplasticity. From navigating a new city to mastering a new skill, neuroplasticity allows us to reshape our neural connections in response to experiences. But this process doesn’t work in isolation, and one key ingredient it requires is good sleep hygiene.
Sleep plays a pivotal role in refining the brain’s ability to form and solidify cognitive maps—mental representations of the spaces and connections around us. Recent research has revealed how the brain connects discrete memories into a cohesive map during rest, showcasing the critical interplay between neuroplasticity and sleep.
Neuroplasticity involves several stages, starting with the formation of new neural connections, followed by the strengthening of those connections. A critical part of this process is myelination, in which the myelin sheath—a protective coating around nerve fibers—thickens to improve the speed and efficiency of neural signals. This process ensures that the new pathways become permanent and robust, enabling long-term learning and adaptability.
The Power of Cognitive Maps
When you explore a new city, your brain initially remembers specific locations, like a cozy café or a bustling market. These isolated memories are stored in specialized neurons called place cells in the hippocampus. Over time, weaker neurons, known as weakly spatial cells, act as bridges, connecting these memories into a mental map.
During sleep, these connections are refined, allowing your brain to link locations and form a cohesive geography. For example, Sarah, a student navigating her university campus, initially found it overwhelming to locate her classes. However, after a week of exploration and restful sleep, she could effortlessly guide a friend from the library to the cafeteria, thanks to the cognitive map her brain constructed.
Sleep: The Catalyst for Memory and Learning
Research highlights how sleep consolidates learning by replaying experiences in the brain. This replay refines neural connections, making them more precise and efficient. Mohammed, an engineer preparing for an exam, experienced this firsthand. After implementing a strict sleep hygiene routine, he found that reviewing his notes before bed helped him recall critical information effortlessly the next day. Sleep provided his brain with the opportunity to strengthen the pathways needed for retention.
Neuroplasticity isn’t just about remembering spaces; it’s also crucial for forming habits. Jasmine, a professional striving to establish a morning exercise routine, struggled to make it stick. However, when she prioritized consistent sleep, her brain began reinforcing the habit through plastic changes during rest. Over time, waking up for her workout became second nature, demonstrating how sleep transforms intentions into automated behaviors.
The Science of Latent Learning
A recent study from MIT’s Picower Institute showed that sleep allows the brain to encode meaningful maps of space. When mice explored mazes without rewards, their brains initially registered individual locations. But after several days of exploration combined with sleep, weakly spatial cells stitched these discrete memories into a cohesive cognitive map. The role of sleep hygiene is further explored by Leah Irish, et al (2014) in a review of empirical evidence.
The role of latent learning—learning that occurs without immediate rewards—relies heavily on sleep-dependent neuroplasticity. Interestingly, mice deprived of sleep failed to form these maps, highlighting the irreplaceable role of rest in learning. Sleep enables the brain to organize and refine information, creating a foundation for navigation, planning, and problem-solving.
The Role of Myelination in Learning
One of the most fascinating aspects of neuroplasticity is myelination, the process of strengthening neural pathways. As we repeatedly use a new connection—remembering a route, mastering a skill, or building a habit—myelination thickens the protective sheath around neurons, ensuring faster and more reliable communication. This crucial process is impaired by insufficient sleep, leaving new learning fragile and incomplete.
Neuroplasticity in Everyday Life
Neuroplasticity and sleep intersect in countless aspects of daily life, from learning and memory to habit formation and emotional regulation. Here’s how you can leverage this connection:
Prioritize Sleep. Aim for 7-9 hours of quality sleep each night to ensure your brain has time to consolidate and refine new learning.
Engage in Exploration. Allow yourself to explore new environments and ideas without immediate goals or rewards. Trust that your brain will make sense of the experiences during rest.
Repeat and Rest. Repetition strengthens neural pathways, but sleep is what solidifies them. Alternate periods of focused practice with restorative sleep for optimal results
Conclusion
Our brains adapt and learn, which allows us to reshape our neural connections in response to experiences. But this process requires sleep hygiene. The brain’s ability to adapt and grow is a testament to its resilience and complexity. Whether it’s finding your way, mastering your studies, or establishing healthy habits, neuroplasticity and sleep work hand in hand to help us navigate life’s challenges.
Rest isn’t a luxury; it’s a necessity. Sleep fuels the brain’s ability to create, refine, and maintain the connections that define us and what we can achieve. Let’s sleep better to shape mental maps, build habits, and drive our potential to new heights.
2. NVDA in Danger of Close Below 50-Week Moving Average First Time in 2 Years
StockCharts.com
3. NVDA One-Day Snapshot
Charlie Bilello
4. AI Infrastructure Stocks
Although AI stocks are down broadly today, it is the Infrastructure basket that has been hit the hardest. With DeepSeek’s supposed low-cost to build its latest ChatGPT-like offering, it has brought into question the necessity for massive capex spend on chips and datacenters, and our AI Infrastructure sub-basket is down an incredible 8.2% on the day as a result! That compares to only a 1.5% decline in our Implementation sub-basket. As shown below, since the start of our AI Baskets a little over two years ago, this is easily the worst day for our Infrastructure basket relative to our Implementation basket to date, and it isn’t even close.
Bespoke Investment Group
5. CEG Constellation Energy -20% One Day…Still +13% YTD
6. German Stock Market DAX New Highs…Beating QQQ by 10% YTD
StockCharts
7. Earnings Growth by Sector: Financials Lead
Nasdaq
8. SpaceX Share Price
Daily Shot
9. Sports Betting Boom
Chartr
10. Farnam Street on “Leverage”
Leverage is the force multiplier of the world, the principle that allows the small to move the large and the few to influence the many. It’s the idea that a little force, strategically applied, can yield outsize outputs.
At its core, leverage is amplification. Think of a crowbar prying two boards apart or a pulley system hoisting a heavy load. In each case, the applied force is multiplied. But leverage isn’t just useful in physics. Rather, it’s a principle that applies across our lives.
Leverage is often lurking in the background of nonlinear outcomes. Consider the author who took the ideas in their head, put them in a book, and sold millions of copies, or the Wall Street investor who made a single decision that resulted in billions. Or even the CEO who directs the people working for them. All of these examples are leverage in action.
In personal development, leverage is about identifying the key habits, skills, and relationships that will impact your life and work most. It’s about focusing your energy on the critical few rather than the trivial many, about finding the points of maximum leverage where small changes can cascade into massive results.
An example of personal leverage is an employee who learns to use AI to amplify their impact on the organization far beyond their experience or effort. While labor is still a form of leverage, it can often be done with silicon chips. In this sense, the person who can leverage technology can compete in a way never imaginable.
However, leverage is not without its risks and responsibilities. Just as a small action can have an outsized positive impact, so can it have negative consequences. If you borrow too much money against your house and it turns out to be less valuable than assumed or interest rates change, the downside of leverage can quickly wipe you out.
Good ideas taken too far often cause unanticipated consequences. Wielding leverage to maximum effect all the time, as the West Virginia mine owners did, sows the seeds of ongoing unrest that undermines one’s ability to be truly effective. No one wants to feel exploited, and those who are never give their loyalty or their best work.
The key is to use leverage wisely and judiciously by understanding the systems you want to influence and considering the second- and third- order effects of your actions.
Leverage is a tool, not a toy, and like any tool, it requires skill, judgment, and respect.
Nice: Meta’s capex this year will be bigger than the market caps of 69% of the S&P 50.
CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company is planning to build a truly massive data center to furnish its AI ambitions — and it’s going to cost a pretty penny. He estimates that the social media company’s capital expenditures will rise to $60 billion or $65 billion this year. That’s about 70% higher than analyst estimates for 2024’s full-year capex, which itself was a 40% jump from a year earlier. It’s also more than what Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft spent combined last quarter.
It’s also a bigger number than the market caps of 343 companies in the S&P 500. (Yes, we did the math. Yes, it’s really 69%.)
Sherwood
3. FCF Margins of Big 10 Stocks
From Ben Carlson: JP Morgan’s Michael Cembalest shared the following chart in a recent piece that shows how unique today’s top 10 companies are relative to history:
A Wealth of Common Sense
4. Netflix FCF Did Not Take Off Until 2023
Finchat
5. U.S. Public Companies Foreign Share of Revenues
Citigroup
6. Insider Selling Highest Since 1988
Dave Lutz Jones Trading INSIDER SELLERS – A gauge of insider sentiment that tallies the number of buyers versus sellers shows there were just 98 companies where at least one insider purchased the company’s shares this month through Jan. 22, compared with 447 at which at least one insider sold, according to data compiled by the Washington Service.
Bloomberg
With a little over a week of trading left in January, that buy-sell ratio, at 0.22, is currently on track to be the lowest in data going back to 1988, Bloomberg reported.
3. A List of Well Known Hedge Fund Managers Calling for IPO Boom Under Trump
IPO ETF…50 week thru 200 week to upside on long-term chart.
StockCharts
4. Trump SPAC No New High Post Election
StockCharts
5. Defensive Consumer Staples New Lows
J.C. Parets
6. Canada and Mexico Since U.S. Election
Bespoke Investment Group: In the chart below, we show the relative strength lines of the country ETFs for Mexico (EWW) and Canada (EWC) versus the United States (SPY). As shown, the two ETFs have seen relative performance drop since the election as tariff tensions have become more of a reality, but that weakness is in the context of longer-term underperformance that has been persistent throughout the past year.
Bespoke Investment Group
7. Income Required for Median Rent
Rental affordability. The income required to afford the median asking rent for a US apartment is $63,680, the lowest since early 2022. However, that’s still 16% higher than the estimated median income for renters.
Redfin
8. Opinion Poll on Our Nation’s Political System
NY Times
9. Consumer Reports Test on 300 Foods Found 86% Contained Harmful Chemicals
Mark Hyman
10. Don’t steal the revelation: Seth Godin
Learning is a journey of incompetence. First, we realize that there’s something we don’t know. Then we see that we’re going to be better at it, and we’re not good at it yet. Then we figure it out and we’ve succeeded. Repeat. When we pre-process the information and simply test people on it, there’s no real learning going on. We become what we do, and if we actually solve the riddle, we’re more likely to have it stick than if someone simply tells us the answer. The job of the teacher is to create the conditions for the student to explore their incompetence long enough to learn something useful.
1. Time Spent in Recession by Decade….Last 15 Years, Almost Zero
Ben Carlson
2. Record Positive 5-Day Breath in S&P
SentimentTrader notes we had a week for the history books. The S&P 500 just strung together 5 straight days with more than 68% of its stocks advancing. That ties the record going back to 1928.
Jason Goepfert
3. Clean Energy ETF New Lows
StockCharts
4. Netflix has Record Subscriber Growth
Bloomberg
5. January Global Fund Manager Flows…Into Eurozone and Commodities?
The Daily Shot Brief
6. With Canada Entering Political Upheaval, the Canadian Dollar is Hitting Lows
Barchart
7. Apple Underperformer Yesterday
Pulls back to September 2024 levels….200-Day in play.
StockCharts
8. 20-Year Chart of Mortgage Rates
Wolf Street
9. World Citizens Reaction to Trump Presidency
The FT
10. Dive In: Cold Water Can Be Good for Your Brain-Psychology Today
Via Psychology Today: Research demonstrates the mental benefits of cold water swimming.
Key points:
People have been immersing themselves in cold water for thousands of years.
Modern research shows that cold water immersion provides cognitive and mood benefits.
That may be connected with the effect of cold-water swimming on cortisol levels.
If you live near a body of water in the northern latitudes, you likely have heard of your local polar bear club — usually made up of a group of hearty swimmers who take part in cold water swimming.
Immersing in cold water dates back to ancient civilizations, with the first documented evidence appearing in an Egyptian text in 3,000 BC. Fast forward to modern times, a group of swimmers founded the first cold water swimming organization in the U.S. in 1903. Today, the Coney Island Polar Bear Club still holds weekly ocean swims from November to April.
Cold-water swimmers tout the numerous benefits of those icy dips: reduced inflammation in muscles and joints, boosted metabolism, improved sleep and enhanced libido. But what does the evidence say?
A growing body of research verifies that cold water plunges do provide benefits, particularly for mood and cognitive performance.
In a study published this year in the journal Physiology & Behavior, 13 healthy subjects submerged themselves in 10-degree Celsius water for 10 minutes, three times per week. Researchers evaluated participants’ cognitive performance, self-reported well-being, sleep quality and worry. They found participants’ cognitive processing speed and mental flexibility improved over the four weeks of the study. Participants also reported fewer sleep disturbances and scored lower on assessments of worry.
Two earlier studies back up these findings. In the first, participants reported a significant decrease in negative emotions like tension, anger, depression, fatigue and confusion after a 20-minute dip in chilly ocean water. In the second study, participants who immersed in a cold bath for five minutes reported feeling more active, alert, attentive, proud and inspired.
What’s going on here? Researchers don’t exactly know. But they have established that those good feelings likely have something to do with cold water immersion’s effect on cortisol levels.
Cortisol is a hormone released into the bloodstream when you experience stress; it prepares your body for the fight-or-flight response. If you have too much cortisol, or if your body releases it too often, it can lead to weight gain, mood swings, insomnia, and fatigue.
Researchers expected a cold-water plunge would elevate cortisol levels, but studies have found that cortisol levels remain relatively stable during cold immersion, and decrease significantly in the hours afterward. This likely explains why cold-water swimmers report improved mood and cognitive performance.
It’s important to note there are health risks associated with cold-water swimming including hypothermia, hyperventilation, and muscle cramping. It’s important never to swim in a body of open water alone, and to check with your doctor before cold immersion if you have any chronic health conditions.
That said, there is clear evidence that cold-water immersion can help boost your mood and cognitive performance, and may also help prevent sleep disturbances.
1. The Dollar is +10% Since September Lows…Going Up with Fed Cutting Rates
StockCharts
2. Unleaded Gasoline Prices Up 8.8% in Last Month
StockCharts
3. Transports Index Down -12% in Correction from December 2024
Holding Right on 200-Day.
StockCharts
4. 3rd Year of Bull Market Historical Returns Muted
Callum Thomas: And as I’ve previously highlighted, the 3rd year of the bull market (which we are now in) tends to be troublesome. This excellent chart maps out the average path of bull markets during the 3rd year. I suspect there’s probably a bit of variation around it, but it does go to show that we’re likely in for a fair amount of range-trading and volatility this year. So embrace the chop?
Todd Sohn
5. Small Cap Holding 200-Day
Via Barrons: The iShares Russell 2000 exchange-traded fund (ticker: IWM), at $217, has held strong above its 200-day moving average of $214. It has remained above the 200-day moving average for 280 consecutive days, the longest stretch since late 2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data. When it has such a stretch, or a longer one, it has gone on to see a gain most of the time over the following 12 months of as much as 19%.
StockCharts
6. Nasdaq 100 QQQ-Second Longest Streak Ever Over 200 Day
Charlie Bello
7. Netflix Chart Closes Below 50-Day
Netflix straight up since August…It has first close below 50-day.
StockCharts.com
8. Netflix straight up since August…It has first close below 50-day.
Barron’s
9. Wine Sales -6% from 2023
Via NBC News: The losses keep stacking up for the U.S. wine industry. Wine sales in the U.S. last year tumbled approximately 6% from 2023, according to data from the industry data group SipSource. The drop is the latest in a long-term decline in wine demand in restaurants, bars and stores that some are calling an “existential threat” to the industry.
NBC News
10. Open AI 15 Page Manifesto to America
From Sherwood: Framed as a plan for ensuring American superiority in AI, the document warns that overregulation will drive hundreds of billions of dollars to Chinese AI projects.
OpenAI just published a 15-page manifesto titled “AI in America: Open AI’s Economic Blueprint.” But if you read between the lines, the blueprint boils down to a wish list of things that OpenAI wants from the US government:
🚦 Voluntary “rules of the road” instead of federal regulation
⚖️ Exclusion from the patchwork of state AI regulations
🪖 Classified national-security briefings
🚔 Defense, national-security, and law-enforcement contracts
🎟️ Exclusion from any AI regulations if the companies work on national-security applications
📊 Mountains of digitized government data to train its AI on
From WSJ: Shares of single-family landlordsInvitation HomesINVH ( 1.90% increase – green up pointing triangle) and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH 1.25% increase) are trading at 35% and 20% discounts to their net asset values, respectively, according to real-estate analytics firm Green Street. Invitation Homes’ stock has traded at a particularly large discount to NAV since interest rates began to rise in early 2022, but the gap has widened by 10 percentage points in the past year.
Put another way, while the average house in the metro areas where Invitation Homes owns its properties sells for $415,000 based on Green Street’s analysis of prevailing market values, the company’s share price implies that investors think $310,000 is more appropriate.
Invitation Homes
StockCharts
American Homes
StockCharts
5. UNG Natural Gas Fund +17% YTD
StockCharts
6. Biotech No Bounce
XBI -4% YTD….and -12% in last 6 months.
StockCharts
7. Mag 7 Pulls Away from Euro Granola Stocks
Europe gains have also been concentrated in one group of stocks.
This next chart shows the prift margins of the S&P going up and to the right. It seems implausible in 2017 that this would continue to increase. But that’s just what happened.
Travel advisers agree. Some of the most sought-after journeys are already sold out for the entirety of 2025 and booking well into 2026. “Think about how River Cruises blossomed in the past decade,” says Jack Ezon, founder and managing partner of luxury travel consultancy Embark Beyond. “Train travel, which is super niche and limited, will go prime time in the same way by 2030.” “Requests for train trips have grown 158% in the past five years, especially among a younger generation,” he adds, as part of a zeitgeisty obsession with throwback luxuries. “It’s the millennial and Gen Zer obsessed with vintage record players and Polaroid cameras, buying the $1,000 cashmere Ritz Paris Frame hoodie and clamoring for a room in an uber-traditional hotel.”
From Seth Godin: Process is the investment we make in inefficiency now to prevent errors from costing us later.
Jet airlines are the safest form of travel ever created, largely because of the inefficient process that we put in place. They’re over tested and over staffed, with checklists and feedback loops in place to ensure that errors don’t occur. It would be way less costly if one person simply jumped onto the plane with you and took off–less costly, but less reliable as well.
If you want to see this taken to a higher level, consider a typical hospital emergency room. If you’ve ever sat waiting, you’ve noticed that it seems inefficient and very process focused. But as a result, the system doesn’t rely on good luck or heroics to save the day. Instead, they’ve invested in process.
An institution that is 100% contemptuous of process may create vividly creative outputs, but it won’t last long. And one that’s 100% process focused will rarely create a breakthrough. We can take a hard look at our culture and decide if we need more (or less) process.
What does it cost to be wrong? What does it cost to avoid being wrong?
1. 10-Year Treasury Yield & Fed Cutting Cycles: What to Expect
Gundlach spent much time discussing December’s big yield curve steepening — when rates on longer-term bonds rise more than shorter ones. Roiling stocks, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury notes have been flirting with 5% levels amid concerns over inflation, a strong economy and fewer rate cuts in 2025. He notes that during past Fed cutting cycles, the 10-year Treasury has never gone up, yet now it has by 100 basis points. “Something is different this time,” he adds.
CNBC
2. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Up 7%
This chart shows massive outperformance of Argentina ETF ARGT vs. Brazil EWZ.
Wealth of Common Sense
3. Higher Rates and Small Cap Stocks
Bespoke Investment Group on R2K vs. 200DMA. The Russell 2000 traded below its 200-day moving average (DMA) on an intraday basis Monday, ending what was the index’s sixth streak of a year or more without trading below that level. Following the end of each of the five prior streaks, the Russell 2000 was higher a year later with a median gain of 13.45%.
Bespoke Investment Group
4. Worst to First-Energy and Healthcare
That is particularly true for the S&P 500 energy sector. It is the top-performing sector-year to date, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ,an ETF that more or less tracks the S&P 500 energy sector, up 5.4% through Monday’s close, according to Healthcare stocks were in second, up 2.8% year-to-date, while the materials sector — last year’s worst performer — was up 1.2% through Monday. Both the healthcare Select Sector SPDR ETF and the Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF have seen similar performance.
MarketWatch
5. These Sectors Are Helping The Equal Weight S&P Hold 200-Day
Stockcharts
6. All Wall Street Strategists are Bullish
Business Insider
7. Goldman Good Number Today…Double in Stock from Late 2023
Stockcharts
8. Marc Andreessen on China Manufacturing
Autism Capital
9. Stats on American Couples & Marriage
John Burns Research
10. You Make the Job; It Doesn’t Make You
From the Daily Stoic Blog: There was once a promising young Greek politician named Epaminondas whose rise threatened some more established leaders (his full story in Right Thing, Right Now). As a way to blunt his potential, they ‘promoted’ him to a job overseeing the city’s sewers and water.
It was supposed to be a humiliation—or at the very least, a dead end job. Instead, he did such a good job, he endeared himself to the population. With discipline and earnestness, Plutarch wrote, “he proceeded to transform that insignificant office into a great and respected honor, even though previously it had involved nothing more than overseeing the clearing of dung and the diverting of water from the streets.”
Whatever we do, if we do it well, is noble. We told a related story in the Daily Dad email recently from Toni Morrison. She came home one day complaining about her job cleaning someone’s house to her father. She expected him to get angry on her behalf or to pity her. Instead, he said, “Listen. You don’t live there. You live here. With your people. Go to work. Get your money. And come on home.”
What he was teaching her, Morrison later wrote, became a set of principles she based her life around.
1. Whatever the work is, do it well—not for the boss but for yourself.
2. You make the job; it doesn’t make you.
3. Your real life is with us, your family.
4. You are not the work you do; you are the person you are.
What’s in our control is how we do the job. What’s in our control is who we are while we do the job. Whether it’s appreciated, whether it’s an impressive or a lowly job, whether a project succeeds or fails–that’s not up to us. What’s up to us is that we do our best, what’s up to us is that we are the best we’re capable of being.
The rest? The Stoics say is not worth worrying about.
From Bespoke Investment Group: The chart below shows how US crude oil production started to take off after 1901. According to the Department of Energy, in 1900, the US produced 63 million barrels of crude oil annually. Within 10 years, production tripled. Another 10 years later, it more than doubled again and kept rising from there until peaking in 1970.
Production was nearly cut in half from 1970 through 2008 as analysts started to fear the world was running out of oil and prices shot well into the triple-digits. Then, proving the adage, that the cure for higher prices is higher prices, the shale boom arrived, and production since then has rebounded to a historic degree. So much for running out of oil.
Even as the US oil industry exploded in the early 1900s, exports were practically non-existent until more than 100 years after Lucas’ first discovery. Beginning in the 2010s, though, exports surged like nothing ever seen before and now total a record 4+ million barrels per day.
2. Decline in Volume by “Professional Investors”
From the DC Lite Blog: The decline in demand from professional investors suggests the potential for elevated equity volatility.
5. Vanguard Total Bond ETF Trades Back to August Levels
Stockcharts
6. Dividend Growth By Sector
Lawrence C. Strauss for Barrons
7. Crypto Pullback Week
From The Daily Shot Brief: Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough week for cryptos so far, with DeFi tokens underperforming.
@TheTerminal
8. Chinese Investors Can’t Get Enough Money Out of Country
From Bloomberg: Chinese Traders’ Demand for Global Stocks Prompt Rare ETF Halts: Chinese investors’ fierce appetite for overseas shares has triggered rare, full-day suspensions on a pair of exchange-traded funds tracking global equities.
The Invesco Great Wall S and P Consumer Select ETF QDII and Harvest Der Dax ETF QDII have been suspended from trading until further notice after their premiums soared, according to exchange filings issued after market hours on Thursday. This marks an escalated degree of risk warning to investors, as halts on such funds usually last for an hour.
A new analysis led by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health found that more than half of calories consumed at home by adults in the U.S. come from ultraprocessed foods.
Ultraprocessed foods contain substances with little or no nutritional value, such as colorings, emulsifiers, artificial flavors, and sweeteners. Examples cover a wide range of products, from chips and hot dogs to prepackaged meals. Researchers have long understood that a substantial proportion of the U.S. diet comes from ultraprocessed foods but it was not clearly understood where those calories were consumed.
Consuming high amounts of ultraprocessed food has been linked to chronic health conditions—cardiovascular disease, obesity, colorectal cancer, among others. The new findings suggest additional measures are needed to promote healthier alternatives for preparing meals at home.
The study was published online December 5 in the Journal of Nutrition.
“The perception can be that ‘junk food’ and ultraprocessed foods are equivalent,” says Julia Wolfson, PhD, MPP, associate professor in the Bloomberg School’s Department of International Health and the study’s lead author.“Yet ultraprocessed foods encompass many more products than just junk food or fast food, including most of the foods in the grocery store. The proliferation and ubiquity of ultraprocessed foods on grocery store shelves is changing what we are eating when we make meals at home.”
For their analysis, the researchers used data from the 2003–2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a nationally representative annual survey of more than 34,000 adults over 20 years of age.
10. Comments from CES Conference
Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA on the Global Tech Showdown.
Korean companies are really dominating screen technology. LG and several other Korean companies showed off transparent, glass-like LCD screens at CES. Imagine sitting in your self-driving car, and your windows are both regular see-through glass and LCD screens at the same time. Our lives are slowly becoming what we used to see in sci-fi movies, and these screens are definitely a leap in that direction.
CES is a truly global show, with technology on display that spans every aspect of our future. There were a lot of companies from Asia (especially China). In certain pavilions focused on consumer or business hardware, China completely dominated the exhibits. There were quite a few large American companies and many American startups, mostly focused on software (though all their hardware was manufactured in Asia). America still dominates in software.
A few, mainly Chinese, companies were showcasing their humanoid robots. One robot was slowly but accurately moving and stacking boxes in a defined area. Others were roaming more freely and were good at avoiding objects. At this point, these robots have the IQ of a smart dog, an average cat (now cat lovers will love me), or Siri. I bet in a few years this will have changed.
I was only mildly surprised by how few European companies were at the show.It’s a very broad generalization, but Europe seems to be running on fumes of past glory.Western Europe has become a pro at regulation and mastered the redistribution of wealth (activities that don’t help innovation or economic growth), and not much else.Yes, there are exceptions, but that’s the point – they are exceptions.If Europe doesn’t change course, eventually it will run out of fumes.
The beauty of learning is that you don’t always know everything you’ve learned at the moment of learning. Often, you’re just depositing data points that will crystallize into insights at a much later date.I don’t know if CES will become an every-year tradition or something I do sporadically, but it’s definitely fertile ground for learning.
From Marketwatch: Retail traders have been particularly active in the market lately, Mizuho’s Azarm said, which suggests that they were responsible for much of the action in these more speculative names.
Trading volume in the U.S. equity market exploded earlier this week. Nasdaq Composite trading volume rose to nearly 14 billion shares on Tuesday, the highest level on record going back to 1995, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The market wasn’t as active on Wednesday. According to data tracked by Azarm, roughly 55% of activity in the U.S. market over the past two weeks has been tied to platforms typically used by individual investors.
“This is massive. Even during the 2021 meltup, we hardly saw anything this elevated,” he said, referring to the meme-stock frenzy that saw shares of GameStop Corp. Some of the recent surge in trading volume across the U.S. market appeared to be tied to penny stocks, Joe Saluzzi, partner and co-founder of Themis Trading, told MarketWatch. Volume in shares of companies trading at $1 or less has been unusually high lately, he said.
2. Two-Year Rise in S&P Puts It in 93rd Decile of 2-Year Returns
DC Lite Blog Mortgage demand. “Mortgage demand is crumbling. For the week ending January 3, mortgage loan applications for purchase sank 6.6%, the 4th decline in the last 5 weeks. The level of conventional purchase apps lowest since 2011! 30-year FRM back to 7%.”
5. Stocks Most Overvalued in 20 Years Versus Corporate Bonds and Treasuries
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading: US bond markets are signaling that equity bulls may be a little too exuberant now. Stocks are close to the most overvalued against corporate credit and Treasuries in about two decades. The earnings yield on S&P 500 shares, the inverse of the price-earnings ratio, is at its lowest level compared with Treasury yields since 2002, signaling that equities are at their most expensive relative to fixed income in decades.
For company debt, the S&P 500’s earnings yield, at 3.7%, is close to the lowest relative to the 5.6% yield of BBB rated dollar corporate bonds since 2008. “Bonds are less expensive than the ‘risky asset’ stocks,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. “As Treasuries remain under pressure pushing yields higher, equity valuations should adjust lower to remain competitive.”
6. FUBO Stock Story
Via MorningBrew:That moment when the popular kid asks you to bundle 🥰: In an effort to snag subscribers from YouTubeTV, Disney and small-fish sports streamer FuboTV are combining their live television forces to become the second-largest cable dupe in the US, Bloomberg reported yesterday.
Fubo’s stock more than tripled on the announcement. As part of the team-up:
Fubo will retain its name and CEO but will reorganize to absorb Disney’s Hulu + Live TV business (which doesn’t include regular ol’ Hulu). Disney will own 70% of the new-and-improved Fubo and will appoint most of its board.
Fubo will go from 1.6 million North American subscribers—near-bottom of the online television provider totem pole—to a combined 6.2 million with Hulu + Live TV (vs. YouTubeTV’s 8 million).
Fubo will also be able to create a new broadcast service and mini sports/news/entertainment bundles with Disney-owned channels, including ESPN and ABC.
Enemies to lovers: Fubo spent last year as Disney’s opp after it sued to block a joint Warner Bros./Fox Corp./ESPN sports streaming bundle called Venu. Under the new deal, Fubo will settle its lawsuit—which would’ve been heard yesterday—for $220 million plus a $145 million loan from Disney. Venu is now expected to resume its launch.
Separate bedrooms: Once the deal closes in the next 12 to 18 months, you’ll still access Hulu + Live TV from the Hulu app, and Fubo through the FuboTV app—at least for now. “Having two separate platforms today, obviously, it’s not ideal,” said Fubo co-founder and CEO David Gandler
9. Major Country Re-Introduces Strict Covid Rules as Mystery New Chinese virus Spreads
From The Express News: Members of the public are advised to avoid public places and to wear masks in public if they are showing symptoms of Human Metapneumovirus.
The local government has issued guidance encouraging individuals to shun public settings if experiencing symptoms related to Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) and has recommended mask-wearing in crowded locales after identifying three cases of the respiratory ailment.
In recent developments, three children have contracted the disease: an eight-month-old boy and a three-month-old girl diagnosed in Bengaluru, and a two-month-old patient from Rajasthan currently receiving treatment in AhmedabadDespite the reimplementation of Covid-related mandates, Indian officials have appealed for calm, pointing out that HMPV is an established virus, with cases already reported both domestically and around the world. In fact, media sources indicate that a six-month-old in Kolkata had the illness as early as November.
10. How the Unconscious Mind Guides Our Behavior
From Psychology Today: Buried memories, past relationships, and hidden feelings affect our daily lives.
Key points
It’s easy to dismiss the idea of the unconscious mind as an old theory, but it has real, measurable effects.
The way you feel about yourself, your loved ones, and other people can be influenced by unconscious bias.
Past experiences can have powerful effects on what you remember and how you remember it.
Raise your hand if the concept of the unconscious mind brings to mind a cartoon iceberg, showing 10 percent of its mass above water shining brightly in the sun, and 90 percent underwater, dark, gloomy, and mysterious—something you probably saw in your Psych 101 textbook.
Some people consider the unconscious a discredited notion, a fusty old concept associated with Sigmund Freud, his Viennese couch, and his cigars—something people once believed could only be reached through dreams or fantasies. But no! The unconscious mind is alive and well in each of us, and has powerful effects on our everyday functioning.
Our emotions, our memories, and even the way we see ourselves (and those who are dear to us) are deeply influenced by unconscious beliefs and feelings. These effects have been studied extensively over the past few decades, offering plenty of evidence for the power of the unconscious mind.
Take emotions, for instance. It’s not hard to understand how your feelings can be affected by unconscious beliefs and desires; it’s face valid, as a social scientist might say. (Perhaps you’re romantically interested in someone you believe you shouldn’t want to be with—a conflict that can generate a lot of frustrated energy.)
In fact, every school of thought in the field of psychotherapy—from psychoanalysis to CBT to relational treatment—is premised in large part on the notion that your past experiences will influence the present. (To say it another way, the way you feel now is filtered through your expectations, which are derived from your previous experiences.)
In psychoanalysis, as Jonathan Shedler, Clinical Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at UCSF says, feelings and conflicts from the past can be retained and can “leak out” into the present (Shedler, 2022). “Conflicts involving anger are… commonplace,” Shedler writes. “Some people, especially those with a certain kind of depressive personality, seem unable to acknowledge or express anger toward others but instead treat themselves in punitive and self-destructive ways.”
Personally, I saw this in a former patient, T, a woman with obsessive-compulsive disorder: She repeatedly worried over, checked, and re-checked the leftovers in her family refrigerator. T’s main concern, which came out as therapy progressed, was her chronic worry that her mother’s food had been poisoned, to which she responded by checking the food for any such poison. But in so doing, T became concerned that she might have accidentally put poison in the food herself… which motivated her to go back and check it again.
Beneath her worry, T acknowledged, was the anger she felt toward her mother, which caused T to fantasize about getting revenge with poison and to cover those fantasies with an act ostensibly undertaken to save her mother’s life. T’s compulsive symptoms, as I saw it, represented a defense against her own disavowed anger.
Unconscious knowledge and beliefs can also affect the way you see yourself and the other people around you. Neuroscientists might put this in the context of conceptual activation—which is to say, the notion that within your “neural network,” two different but similar ideas can be lightly activated by each other.
Drew Westen, professor of Psychology and Psychiatry at Emory University, puts it this way: “When we attend to something, our brain simply enhances activation of the same… circuits that represent information that is peripheral to consciousness or even outside of awareness.” Practically speaking, this is the neural mechanism through which new people are experienced through the lens of your memories of people from the past.
Likewise, I saw this effect play out in my own private practice: M, an adult male patient who argued frequently with his romantic partner, told me that his father had abandoned his family when he was a teen. His feelings of betrayal pervaded many of his relationships, and they intruded into our therapy as well: When M cancelled a session just hours before it was scheduled to begin, I urged him to come in to see me later in the day, and told him that I’d have to assess my late-cancellation fee if he did not do that.
M became enraged, accusing me of using him only for the sake of profit and fully discounting our long working relationship. When I told him that the fee that his particular insurance company would pay me for our session was actually less than my standard late-cancellation fee, he stopped mid-rant. The reality of our work together no longer matched the assumptions about human relationships that he’d drawn from his tragic personal experience, and it was difficult for him to see me in a new light.
Unconscious processes can also affect what you remember and how you remember it. Quite often it is possible for one’s memory to record knowledge or experience while leaving no conscious trace of having done so.
People suffering from prosopagnosia—who have lost the ability to recognize different faces—“nevertheless produce differential electrophysiological responses to familiar versus unfamiliar faces” (Bruyer, 1991). And experiments with people whose brains are damaged in the hippocampal region—a part of the brain utilized in creating new memories—suggest that people whose memories are impaired, and who cannot remember events in their own histories, can still somehow retain the emotional significance of those events.
The well-known and well-studied amnesiac Henry Molaison (often referred to as “H.M.”), became unable to form new memories after brain surgery in 1953. After visiting his mother in the hospital, Molaison remembered nothing of the visit, but “was nevertheless able to feel in some vague way that something had happened to his mother.”
He could also learn to carry out new tasks (using procedural memory, which is said to be distinct from the autobiographical memories that Molaison could not make), like writing words upside-down and backward. Although Molaison was able to learn to do this through regular practice, Westen said in 1999 a paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Rapaport-Klein Study Group, “he had no idea that he had ever seen the task before.”
Even without priming, though, a basic understanding of the unconscious and its effects on human behavior can lead to a new, more fruitful perspective. It’s not always possible to be aware of the influence of the past on your present-day feelings and decisions, but it’s important to acknowledge that this influence is there and that it can run deep.
I’ll close with a telling anecdote about a 1996 study of college students, from the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, entitled “Positive Illusions About the Self.” It’s probably not too difficult to think of someone suffering from excessively positive illusions in that way; what this experiment suggested was that these people might be unconsciously using these illusions to defend against inner self-doubt.
In the study, Richard Robins and Jennifer S. Beer gathered a large number of first-year college students, matched them according to grades and standardized test scores, and separated out the students who were prone to self-aggrandizement of their academic skills and artificially heightened expectations of their college performance. After two years in school, these self-enhancing students were no more pleased with their performance than the other, more realistic group—but they were 32 percent more likely to have dropped out of college entirely. Unconsciously, perhaps, they had always suspected that their abilities wouldn’t hold up in a college environment, but instead of acknowledging their fears and seeking assistance, they defensively overstated them.
All of us, then, can learn from the example of these students: Understanding the influence of our unconscious minds can offer useful and important information about ourselves, and we ignore this information at our own risk.
Plug Power (PLUG) shares surged for a second straight session after the Treasury Department announced final rules on tax credits for producing clean hydrogen.
The tax credits were made available through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The Treasury Department noted in its statement Friday that the rules underwent “significant changes and flexibilities that address several key issues to help grow the industry and move projects forward,” while adhering to the emissions requirements included in the act.1
Officials explained that the changes “clarify how producers of hydrogen, including those using electricity from various sources, natural gas with carbon capture, renewable natural gas (RNG), and coal mine methane can determine eligibility for the credit.”
9. The Female vs. Male Bachelor Degree Gap is Widening
10. This Money Bias is the Biggest Barrier to Building Wealth
Via CNBC: It’s officially the time of year when you get around to that thing you’ve been putting off. And for millions of Americans, that means coming to grips with their finances.
If you’ve been avoiding funding your 401(k) or opening a brokerage account, you’re not alone. Nearly half of U.S. adults — 48% — report owning no investable assets, according to a 2024 survey from Janus Henderson.
And for many, the reasoning behind the procrastination is simple: Investing is (seemingly) too complex.
It’s a pattern of thinking that, if not overcome, could cripple many young people financially, says Amos Nadler, founder of Prof of Wall Street and a Ph.D. in behavioral finance and neuroeconomics.
“It’s a bias that we call ‘complexity aversion,’” he says. “And it’s the biggest barrier to building wealth for people who are not in markets or who have never invested before.”
Here’s how this cognitive bias could be costing you money.
The importance of overcoming complexity aversion
On a very basic level, people who put off doing essential financial tasks have the same fears as those who can’t bring themselves to start an exercise routine — they don’t want to make a mistake or feel foolish.
Just as someone might say they don’t know the first thing about how all that fancy gym equipment works, a financially avoidant person might say, ”‘Man, this is over my head,’” says Nadler. ”‘I’m just not a numbers person.’”
Feeling this way about money is tied closely with another common cognitive bias known as risk aversion. Essentially, not only are you afraid you’ll screw up, but you fear that you’ll lose out on money you put time and effort into accumulating. And because fear of losing what you have can outweigh the joy of building wealth, you stay put.
The impulse is, “I’ve worked hard for it, and I’m risk averse. I’d rather just have the cash,” Nadler says. “I know inflation is eating away at my cash, but the market so volatile, so I’m scared.”
But the need to start investing — especially among young people — extends beyond the need for your money to keep up with inflation. By procrastinating on this particular financial project, you’re losing what many experts call your most valuable asset: time.
The longer you’re in the market, the more time your money has to grow at a compounding rate. For every year you delay getting started in the market, you potentially shave thousands of dollars off your future net worth.
Play around with an online compounding interest calculator, and you’ll likely discover that sitting on the sidelines for even a few years can have a massive effect on your long-term gains.
Consider a 20-year-old who invests $200 a month into a retirement portfolio that earns an annualized total return of 8%. By the time she’s ready to retire at age 67, she’ll have $1.25 million saved. If she starts at age 25, with all other conditions the same, her total drops to about $830,000. And if she puts things off until age 30, she’d retire with $547,000.
How to move past complexity aversion
So, how do you get started? You could always open a brokerage account or self-fund a retirement account, such as an IRA. Doing so requires just a few easy steps.
But if your employer offers a workplace retirement account, such as a 401(k), opting in may be an even easier way to get started. Designate a percentage of your salary to contribute to the account out of each paycheck and select one or more mutual funds for your portfolio.
These plans commonly hold low-cost, highly diversified options, such as index and target-date funds, which give investors exposure to large swaths of the market.
7. U.S. Foreign Aid Accounts for About 1% of Federal Budget
8. AI and Gambling
Fear and coding in Las Vegas–Inside the gambling industry’s big bet on AI.
Via Business Insider:Narrativa is among a crop of startups seizing on the artificial intelligence boom to enthusiastically automate writing tasks that would once have fallen to humans. From penning regulatory documentation for Pfizer to zhuzhing up marketing copy for insurance and e-commerce firms and helping generate breaking news articles for The Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles-based Narrativa boasts roughly 50 clients in various industries. But one of its core focus areas, comprising a quarter of its business, is a little more polarizing than the rest: gambling.
Working with major industry players like 888 and Betway, Narrativa uses large language models to pump out everything from automated summaries of sports games to SEO-friendly reviews of online casino games and promotional social media posts. With no humans required, the 20-person company’s AI tools produce 10 million words a month for gambling clients — the effective output of 170-odd full-time writers producing a grueling 3,000 words a day. It’s all in service of enticing gamblers to place more bets.
“You want to create a community, you want people coming back for more,” Matthew Rector, Narrativa’s vice president of content, says. “You want to foster that environment, and our content helps facilitate that.”
Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, and the tech industry’s other top impresarios talk a big game about how AI may one day attain sentience, solve the climate crisis, and lead society to a post-scarcity economy. Today, though, the technology is being embraced by traditional industries for more prosaic — and mercenary — aims. Key among them is the gambling industry, which is rapidly adopting AI for everything from writing alluring online marketing copy to identifying and helping problem gamblers to tracking people and perfecting the physical layout of casinos. The ultimate goal: to harvest ever more money from gamblers, by profiling them, feeding them content and games personalized to their whims, and cajoling them to stay longer and make bigger bets.
9. Baby Boom: 2600 Indians Born Per Minute
10. Strategies for Wealth & Happiness
Alan Watts on applying yay one thinking to yourself:
“You are under no obligation to be the same person you were five minutes ago.” * Charlie Munger on preparation:
“Neither Warren nor I are smart enough to make decisions with no time to think. We make actual decisions very rapidly, but that’s because we have spent so much time preparing ourselves by quietly reading.” *** Jim Rohn on failure:
“Failure is rarely the result of some isolated event. Rather, it is a consequence of a long list of accumulated little failures which happen as a result of too little discipline. Failure occurs each time we fail to think … today, act … today, care, strive, climb, learn, or just keep going … today. If your goal requires that today you write ten letters and you write only three, you are behind by seven letters … today. If you commit yourself to making five phone calls and you make only one, you are behind by four phone calls … today. If your financial plan requires that you save ten dollars and you save none, you are behind ten dollars … today. The danger comes when we look at a day squandered and conclude that no harm has been done. After all, it was just one day. But add up these days to make a year and then add up these years to make a lifetime and perhaps you can now see how repeating today’s small failures can easily turn your life into a major disaster.”
The final distribution from a fund for victims of the fraudster Bernie Madoff began Monday, the Department of Justice said.
When the last disbursement is completed, more than $4.3 billion will have been distributed by the fund to more than 40,000 victims in nearly 130 countries, the DOJ said.
Madoff died in prison in 2021 while serving a 150-year sentence for what federal prosecutors have called the largest Ponzi scheme in the world.
The last disbursement, of more than $131 million, is being sent to more than 23,000 victims worldwide. When it is completed, more than $4.3 billion will have been distributed by the fund to more than 40,000 victims in nearly 130 countries, the DOJ said.
That tally is nearly 94% of the estimated total losses from the scam, the department said. The final disbursement by the Madoff Victim Fund was announced roughly 16 years after Madoff’s fraud came to light.
“Today’s distribution represents an unprecedented conclusion of victim compensation from civil forfeiture actions related to the Madoff scheme,” said James Dennehy, FBI New York Field Office assistant director in charge.
“These victims implicitly trusted Madoff with their investments only to ultimately lose significant monies to his selfish plan,” Dennehy said.
Madoff, who was head of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities in New York, pleaded guilty in March 2009 to 11 felonies related to what federal prosecutors have said was the largest Ponzi scheme in the world.
Madoff was sentenced to 150 years in prison for the fraud, which spanned four decades and involved him paying off customers with money raised from other customers, not with investment trading gains as he claimed.
He died in April 2021, at age 82, at a federal prison facility in North Carolina, nearly a year after he was denied a request for compassionate release due to a terminal kidney disease.
When Madoff’s fraud first became publicly known, prosecutors estimated the total loss at $65 billion. But that estimate sharply dropped once authorities subtracted the amount of phantom investment gains and interest that Madoff’s customers were duped into believing existed.
The largest portion of the fund for Madoff’s victims, about $2.2 billion, came from a civil forfeiture recovery from the estate of Jeffry Picower, a now-dead Madoff investor, the DOJ said.
Another $1.7 billion came from JPMorgan Chase as part of a deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ in January 2014. JPMorgan Chase and its predecessor institutions had served as the primary bank through which Madoff operated his scheme, the DOJ has previously said.
The rest of the victims fund came from a “civil forfeiture action against investor Carl Shapiro and his family and from civil and criminal forfeiture actions against Bernard L. Madoff, Peter B. Madoff, and their co-conspirators,” the DOJ said Monday.
1. XLE Energy ETF -12% One Month…Negative Year to Date
2. Gold ETF vs. Bond ETF 2024
3. Small Cap Profitability Problem
4. Small Caps Now Hit 4-Year Losing Streak
The Daily Shot Brief Small vs. large performance. “Small caps are on a four-year losing streak and having their worst year relative to the S&P 500 since 1998.”
5. MOVE Index Measuring Bond Volatility Drops to 3-Year Low
6. 401 K Assets in USA Hitting $8T
7. The Under $300k Home is Disappearing
8. Fed Cuts and Mortgage Rates Go Higher
Mortgage Rates Must Go Down When The Fed Cuts Rates
9. Brazil shuts BYD factory site over ‘slavery’ conditions
BBC Annabelle Liang-The BYD Yuan Pro electric vehicle Brazilian authorities have halted the construction of a factory for Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD, saying workers lived in conditions comparable to “slavery”. More than 160 workers have been rescued in Brazil’s northeastern state of Bahia, according to a statement from the Public Labour Prosecutor’s Office (MPT). They were allegedly put in a “degrading” environment and had their passports and salaries withheld by a building company. BYD said in a statement that it had cut ties with the firm involved and remained committed to a “full compliance with Brazilian legislation”. The factory was scheduled to be operational by March 2025, and was set to be BYD’s first EV plant outside of Asia. The workers, hired by Jinjiang Construction Brazil, lived in four facilities in Camaçari city. At one such facility, workers were made to sleep on beds without mattresses, according to prosecutors. Each bathroom was also shared among 31 workers, forcing them to get up extremely early to be ready for work. “The conditions found in the lodgings revealed an alarming picture of precariousness and degradation,” the MPT said. “Slavery-like conditions”, as defined by Brazilian law, include debt bondage and work that violates human dignity. The MPT added that the situation also constitutes “forced labour”, as many workers had their wages withheld and faced excessive costs for terminating their contracts. BYD said affected workers had been moved to hotels. It added that it had conducted a “detailed review” of the working and living conditions for subcontracted employees and asked on “several occasions” for the construction firm to make improvements. The living conditions of some workers constructing BYD’s factory in Brazil https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xj9jp57r2o
1. Semiconductor ETF SMH vs. S&P Downtrend Since July
This chart is shows semiconductors vs. S&P
2. Semiconductor Index Close to Breaking One-Year Uptrend
3. Emerging Markets ETF Closes Below 200-Day
4. Foreign Money Pouring into U.S. Stocks
Foreign Fervor: Foreigners are rotating more and more into US equities. Another record high on this indicator in Q3. Compare and contrast the heights of the dot com bubble vs the depths of the financial crisis in terms of what this chart means.
5. RPV Pure Value ETF -8% in One Month…Trades at 10.1x
Barrons-The potential bad news, however, looks thoroughly reflected in value stocks. The Pure Value ETF trades at just 10.1 times 12-month forward earnings, well below the S&P 500’s 21.6 times and the Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF’s (RPG) 23.8 times.
9. Netflix Spending Equal Amount in International Content as U.S.
10. 9 Daily Practices to Build Up Your Self-Confidence
Psychology Today Adi Jaffe Ph.D. Self-confidence can be built. Here’s how to start the year on the right path.
Self-confidence isn’t something you’re born with; it’s cultivated.
A few simple daily habits can greatly enhance your confidence.
Smal incremental growth is more sustainable than massive shifts.
Self-confidence isn’t a magical trait bestowed on a lucky few; it’s a skill anyone can cultivate. Your daily habits shape how you view yourself—and that sense of self can ultimately determine the quality of your relationships, your work, and your overall happiness. Here are nine daily practices designed to increase your confidence, reduce self-doubt, and help you thrive.
1. Set (and Celebrate) Small, Achievable Goals Why It Works: Breaking large goals into smaller, achievable milestones provides regular wins. This practice rewires your brain to expect success rather than fear failure. How to Do It:
Each morning, write down one to three small tasks to complete that day. (Don’t overdo it at first.)
Make these tasks exceedingly doable (e.g., tidying an area of your workspace, sending a specific important email, or taking a 15-minute walk).
At the end of the day, celebrate your achievement, no matter how small it may seem. Small wins compound over time and train your mind to see yourself as capable and resourceful.
Things to avoid: Do not make these tasks too big or too broad (like “workout more” or “finish all my overdue tasks” if you have a list of 50 uncompleted to-dos).
2. Practice Positive Self-Talk Why It Works: Your inner dialogue has a powerful impact on your actions and beliefs. Consistent negative self-talk (which many struggle with) reinforces low self-esteem, while positive affirmations build confidence. How to Do It:
Notice any negative thought spirals: “I’ll never get this right” or “I’m not good enough.”
Replace them with affirming alternatives: “I’m learning and growing” or “I can handle challenges.”
If it feels unnatural at first, that’s normal; positive self-talk becomes easier and more authentic with repetition.
Things to avoid: If this feels awkward, it’s likely even more crucial a habit for you to practice. Don’t let the fact that you’re not used to being kind to yourself stop you from getting started.
3. Develop a Mindfulness or Meditation Routine Why It Works: Mindfulness trains you to be present and more aware of critical self-judgment. For many, anxiety, regret, and other negative emotions are substantially more troubling when focused on the past or present. Returning to the current moment can alleviate negativity. How to Do It:
Commit to as little as 5 minutes of daily meditation. Try a guided app (if you get too easily distracted) or simply focus on your breath.
There is no right meditation approach. Experiment with different techniques: body scans, mantra repetition, or mindful walking (or even tooth brushing).
Pay attention to judgmental or self-doubting thoughts, acknowledge them, and let them pass without attaching negativity or shame.
Things to avoid: Anxiety during meditation often comes from self-judgment. Don’t expect a perfectly quiet mind. Meditation is a practice, not a performance.
4. Curate Your Social Media and News Intake Why It Works: Comparisons breed insecurity. Social media may show only “highlight reels,” creating unrealistic expectations that can foster harmful comparisons. Reducing negative inputs protects your mental space. How to Do It:
Unfollow accounts that trigger comparison or self-criticism.
Follow inspirational figures, mental health advocates, and accounts that uplift rather than diminish you.
Set time limits for social media to minimize doom-scrolling or procrastination. (These need to be shorter than you think.).
Things to avoid: Stay away from overly aspirational content that feels unattainable. Focus on motivational accounts relevant to your current journey.
5. Engage in Regular Physical Activity Why It Works: All habits are important, but physical movement is a key feature of a healthy routine. Exercise releases dopamine and endorphins—feel-good chemicals that boost mood, motivation, and confidence. How to Do It:
Choose an activity you genuinely enjoy: dancing, cycling, yoga, or just brisk walking.
Start small—10 to 15 minutes a day—and gradually increase the duration.
Stay consistent and track your progress to see improvements over time.
Things to avoid: Avoid unrealistic fitness goals. Consistency beats intensity for long-term success. Build gradually and consistently, and you’ll go from 10 minutes a day to 30 or even 45 minutes within months—and sustain it.
6. Surround Yourself with Positive Influences Why It Works: Supportive relationships reinforce your strengths and aspirations. I recommend curating a social circle that is a mix of both highly supportive people as well as others who can model the sort of life you are looking to grow into. How to Do It:
Identify friends, mentors, or online communities that inspire you.
Limit contact with those who constantly criticize or undermine your progress.
Seek out local or virtual support groups focused on self-improvement or wellness.
Things to avoid: Don’t hesitate to seek help. Even top achievers rely on support systems.
7. Keep a Gratitude Journal Why It Works: Focusing on the good in your life recalibrates your brain toward optimism and positivity. Research has shown that positive people have an exaggerated bias toward the good, and practicing gratitude can help you get there. How to Do It:
Write down 3 things you’re grateful for each day.
They can be small (a cup of coffee, a cozy blanket) or monumental (accomplishing a week of sobriety, reconnecting with a loved one).
Reflect on your daily entries at the end of the week to see how far you’ve come.
article continues after advertisement Things to avoid: Avoid repeating the same items. Challenge yourself to find new sources of gratitude. I’d bet that, if you really think about it, you can be grateful for thousands of things.
8. Learn, and practice, asking for help Why It Works: Seeking support shows self-awareness and fosters personal growth. Recognizing when you need support—and being willing to seek it—can dramatically boost self-confidence. How to Do It:
Identify an area where you tend to struggle or feel overwhelmed (e.g., finances, parenting, emotional support).
Reach out to someone with expertise or simply a listening ear. This could be a trusted friend, a mentor, or even an online support community.
Start small. Ask for a bit of advice or assistance, and allow yourself to accept the support offered without guilt.
Things to avoid: Don’t rely on a single person for all your needs. Build a diverse support network.
9. Take Initiative and Learn New Skills Why It Works: Learning new skills boosts self-efficacy and opens doors to new opportunities. As a bonus, the more you practice these new skills, the more you prove to yourself that you can develop, increasing confidence for the next new skill. How to Do It:
Pick a skill you’ve always wanted to learn: cooking, public speaking, a new language.
Dedicate 15-30 minutes daily to practice or study.
Track your progress and celebrate small milestones (e.g., successfully cooking a new recipe, having a short conversation in another language).
Things to avoid: Avoid sticking only to familiar tasks. Growth comes from practicing areas in which you struggle. Final Thoughts Self-confidence is built through consistent, incremental steps taken daily. By incorporating these 9 practices into your routine, you not only bolster your self-esteem but also create a supportive framework for overall mental health. Think of confidence like any muscle in your body: The more you work it, the stronger it gets. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us
1. Nasdaq Took 15 Years to Recover from the Internet Bubble
The Nasdaq actually went 15 years without hitting an all-time high (from 2000 to 2015), a drought that would be unfathomable to new investors today.
2. MU -45% from Highs
3. 3rd Biggest One Day VIX Surge Ever on Wednesday
Tom Lee Fundstrat mentions what is notable is how quickly markets recovered from these sell-offs: – 3 of 4 times, the S&P 500 fully recover within a week – Jan 2021, Feb 2018, Aug 2024. – 4 of 4 times, fully recovered within a month
The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 had their second-worst days of the year, while the small cap Russell 2000 suffered its largest decline of 2024.
The force of the sell-off was such that now some key market gauges are actually underwater since Nov. 5. Of course, that’s when President-elect Donald J. Trump’s election win generated a strong stock market reaction from investors excited by the prospect of both tax cuts and regulatory relaxation, which might provide a bit more pep for the domestic economy.
Today, the Trump bump is looking more like a hump verging on a potential slump as the US central bank grows more worried about inflation, though of course he isn’t even in office yet.
Of note: The equal-weighted edition of the S&P 500 is now down since election day. That is, the average member of the benchmark US stock index is worth less than it was on November 5.
7. Novo Nordisk -27% After New Weight Loss Data Released
9. Man Admits to Running Secret Chinese ‘Police Station’ in NYC
From the BBC: Prosecutors say the outpost at Manhattan’s Chinatown was used to help Beijing identify pro-democracy activists in the US
An American citizen has pleaded guilty to helping run what has been described as the first known secret police station in the US on behalf of the Chinese government.
Prosecutors say Chen Jinping and his co-defendent Lu Jianwang opened and operated the station in Manhattan’s Chinatown neighbourhood in early 2022 on behalf of China’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS).
At least 100 such stations have been reported worldwide across 53 countries, with rights groups accusing China of using the outposts to threaten and monitor Chinese nationals abroad.
But China has denied that they are police stations, saying they are “service stations” providing administrative services to nationals overseas.
The outpost, which occupied an entire floor above a ramen stall, did provide basic services like renewing Chinese citizens’ driver licenses, but it also helped Beijing identify pro-democracy activists living in the US, say federal authorities.
Matthew Olsen, an assistant attorney general in the US Department of Justice, called the attempt to operate the undeclared overseas police station “a clear affront to American sovereignty and danger to our community that will not be tolerated”.
The station was closed in the autumn of 2022 after the Federal Investigation Bureau launched an investigation.
But Chen and Lu destroyed text messages they exchanged with an MPS official when they learned of the probe, prosecutors said.
On Wednesday, Chen, 60, pleaded guilty to conspiring to act as an agent for China, and faces up to five years in prison when he is sentenced next year.
Chen’s acknowledgement of guilt is a “stark reminder of insidious efforts taken by the [Chinese] government to threaten, harass, and intimidate those who speak against their Communist Party,” Robert Wells, an executive assistant director of the FBI’s National Security Branch said in a statement.
Lu, 59, has pleaded not guilty and is awaiting trial. Prosecutors have accused him of harassing a purported Chinese fugitive to return to China and for helping to locate a pro-democracy activist in California on behalf of the Communist Party.
At the time of Chen’s arrest, authorities said it marked the first time the US has brought criminal charges in relation to such police outposts.
Mr Olsen said US authorities would “continue to pursue anyone who attempts to aid the PRC’s efforts to extend their repressive reach into the United States”.
Last year, 34 officers from the MPS were also charged with using fake social media accounts to harass Chinese dissidents in the US and spread official Chinese government propaganda.
10. The Stories We Tell Ourselves
From Seth Godin: If it happened to us, our memory of it is a story, our record of it with us at the center.
Even if it’s on video, even if other people were there, our narrative and the context and the play by play belong to us.
The useful question might be: “Is my story helpful?”
And the follow on could be: “Is there any other version of this story that might be more helpful?”
1. S&P Value Stocks Have Declined 11 Consecutive Days: The Longest in History
Via Dan Stratemeier, Jefferies Managing Director Equities, Event Driven Strategies
2. Dow Jones Down 9 Consecutive Days, First Time Since 1978
3. United Health is Half of Dow Sell-Off
4. Fed Rate Cut Path to Slow 2025
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading: With inflation proving sticky, Wall Street banks have started to anticipate that the Fed will forecast perhaps one fewer cut next year, meaning three-quarters of a point in total. And some predict the central bank may pencil in just a half-point, a level that’s broadly in line with what swaps markets are pricing in.
5. Equity supply
From the Daily DC Chart: Unlike previous risk frenzies, this one lacks an equity supply response. This year is tracking to a net negative, and marks three straight years of no supply, with a rolling three-year negative number.
9. Masa’s SoftBank bets $100B on America under Trump
Via Pitchbook:SoftBank is investing $100 billion into US companies, President-elect Donald Trump announced Monday with CEO Masayoshi Son.
“My confidence level of the economy of the United States has tremendously increased with his victory,” Son said at the press conference.
The colossal bet on US industry is Masa’s latest effort to reassert SoftBank—and himself—as the world’s leading tech investor after having retreated to the sidelines in 2023.
The Japanese investor is in a transitional period. Last month, Rajeev Misra, one of the original architects of the Vision Fund, left the company. After being burned by the tech reset in 2022, SoftBank has restarted investing in startups heavily geared toward AI. Its recent investments include OpenAI and Glean.
Across its two Vision Funds and LatAm fund, SoftBank’s current investment gain stands at $1.9 billion.
But SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2, which it largely deployed in 2020 and 2021, is still underwater to the tune of $22 billion. Despite strong tech stock performance in the second half of 2024, VF2’s fair value remained flat this year: It started 2024 at $33.7 billion, and its fair value had dipped to $32.9 billion as of September 30.
This is a huge sum for SoftBank to deploy from its balance sheet. SoftBank recorded a $17 billion investment gain in the six months ending September 2024—up from a $6 billion loss the year prior.
In 2016, after Trump’s first election victory, SoftBank announced it would invest $50 billion into US companies. It followed through, backing startups such as DoorDash and Slack. Both were tremendously successful for Vision Fund 1, netting a gross return on investment of $7.5 billion and $1 billion, respectively.
But the firm reportedly invested roughly $18.5 billion into the now-bankrupt co-working space provider WeWork.
10. Not a Great Statement on Society
Walmart is putting body cameras on employees. The technology is being used as a deterrent against theft and other bad customer behavior
From QZ: As the holiday shopping season comes to a frenzied peak, Walmart is introducing a new tool that it hopes will help reduce tensions for frenzied staffers. CNBC (CMCSA) reports that the retail giant is going to start affixing body cameras to workers in its stores.
The company told the outlet that the cameras are still in the pilot testing stage, but a Walmart spokesperson did say that “we are always looking at new and innovative technology used across the retail industry.”
One use of the technology will be to create a deterrent for bad behavior by customers, to which retail workers are often on the receiving end. Another use will be to possibly reduce theft. Though the National Retail Federation walked back claims last year about the extent of shoplifting in recent years, the problem remains a concern for stores.
Walmart (WMT) is not the only company whose workers are donning cameras. This summer, discount retail chain T.J. Maxx (TJX) said that its staff would be using body cameras as well.
“When somebody comes in, it’s almost like a de-escalation where people are less likely to do something when they’re being videotaped,” CFO John Joseph Klinger said during a company earnings call, adding that the discount retailer started using the cameras late last year and “definitely feels that they’re playing a role.”
China capital markets outflow hits record high in Nov after Trump election win.
From Reuters: China’s capital markets outflow reached a record high of $45.7 billion in November, according to official data tracking cross-border payments, as Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win roiled global portfolio flows.
Cross-border receipts from portfolio investments were $188.9 billion, while payments totalled $234.6 billion, resulting in the biggest monthly deficit on record, according to data from China’s foreign exchange regulator.
The data release comes as China’s policy-driven stock market rally that started in late September is losing steam, while the yuan has slumped against the dollar in the face of tariff threats from Trump.
The massive deficit, which widened from a $25.8 billion outflow in October, also reflects weakening investor confidence, despite a slew of policies announced by Beijing since late September to stimulate an economy mired in a property crisis, weak consumption and persistent deflation.
2. KWEB-Chinese Internet Stock ETF
Back into sideways pattern…2 years sideways.
3. AAII Sentiment: 50 Weeks of Bulls in 2024, Not Seen Since Late 90’s
4. U.S. Large Cap Still Dominates Inflow
5. Fund Managers Cash Levels
6. Mapped: Crypto Ownership Growth by Region in 2024 ₿
The report has grim news for the industry: 90% of investors said they’ve received requests from money managers for fund extensions as dealmaking remains slow, and more than two-thirds said they’ve seen funds raise less than what managers had targeted.
10. Psychology Today Shares the 5 Things that can Increase Brain Inflammation
Alcohol, diet, and smoke, for starters.
Key points:
Brain inflammation may damage our mood, cognition, and general brain health.
Diet quality plays a major role in our overall inflammatory state, and may significantly influence brain inflammation.
Poor metabolic health, exposure to smoke, and excess alcohol may all negatively impact brain inflammation.
From Psychology Today: When we experience inflammation in our joints, we may have redness, swelling, and pain. If we have inflammation in our skin, we might get an itchy or otherwise annoying rash. But what happens if there is inflammation in our brains?
In recent years, scientists have shown that inflammation in our brains may be a significant contributor to everything from risk for dementias like Alzheimer’s to mood issues like depression to trouble making healthy decisions. That’s a big deal, because these brain issues are major contributors to our quality of life.
Some factors in our lives that contribute to brain inflammation may be unavoidable, and some may have occurred long ago. But there are still several things that we can do to help keep levels of brain inflammation in check. Here are 5 great examples of things worth paying attention to:
The food we eat is likely a major contributor to our overall immune state as well as the immune state of our brains. It’s thought that a diet rich in processed food (think added sugar, refined carbohydrates, seed oils, processed meats) may contribute to inflammation in our brains, while a diet rich in leafy greens, nuts, fruits/berries, whole fish/omega-3s, polyphenols, gut-healthy fiber (consider adding some fermented foods for an extra gut-health bonus) as well as flavorful spices like cloves, cinnamon and turmeric may have the opposite effect. For inspiration, check out the Mediterranean diet, which is especially rich in all of these key healthy nutrients.
2. Poor metabolic health.
Research shows that our metabolic health (our body’s ability to extract nutrients from and generate energy from our food) is tightly linked to our immune health, including levels of inflammation. We now know that most of us are likely to be metabolically unhealthy, and that this may have carryover effects for our risk of brain diseases, in part by way of inflammation. Key variables that influence metabolic health include our diet (especially the way our food influences insulin and blood sugar levels), whether or not we get exercise, and even our levels of psychological stress.
Some basic strategies to help improve metabolic health include paying attention to and limiting your added sugar intake, lowering your daily consumption of simple carbohydrates like white bread, pasta, muffins, cakes cookies, and cereal, and engaging in daily movement practices.
3. Exposure to smoke and substances (especially excess alcohol use).
Research shows that exposure to smoke (either because we smoke cigarettes or smoke in air pollution) may increase levels of inflammation in our brains. Similarly, it’s been proposed that exposure to certain drugs may have a damaging effect on our brains by way of the immune system. Though the use of some of these drugs is less common, we likely need to be careful about drinking too much alcohol which may increase inflammation in the brain. It’s still debatable if there really is a “brain safe” level of alcohol consumption.
Some basic steps include getting help quitting smoking (if you smoke), doing your best to reduce exposure to air pollution (check your local AQI) whenever possible—including considering a HEPA filter in your home, and limiting alcohol consumption as viable.
4. Too much weight around our bellies.
Our fat cells are immunologically active cells, and this appears to be especially the case for our belly fat. White fat cells deep in our bellies and around our internal organs are thought to contribute to inflammation in our bodies, which may negatively impact inflammation in our brains. While weight loss is a challenging conversation, some strategies worth considering as it relates to decreasing our belly fat include cutting back on refined carbohydrates and added sugar, as well as limiting alcohol consumption.
5. Chronic stress.
One of the most powerful connections between brain inflammation and what we put into our bodies concerns stress. When we experience chronic stress, which can happen for a wide variety of reasons, it appears to increase inflammatory pathways in the brain. Though some stress may be unavoidable, a few practices worth trying include limiting exposure to stressful news and social media (especially before bed) and trying a stress mitigation technique like mindfulness, time in nature, or breathwork.
3. Space UFO ETF +41% 6 Months Leading Up to Election
4. Wow! This Might be the Stat of the Year
5. ADBE had NOT Made it Back to Highs Prior to Last Night’s Number
6. IBIT Surpassed $50B Assets in 227 Days
The Daily Shot Brief Cryptocurrency: The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) surpassed $50 billion in assets in just 227 days, achieving this milestone five times faster than the previous record-holder, IEMG, which took 1,323 days. IEFA and VOO reached similar levels in comparable time frames.
CNBC reports that Renaissance Capital IPO ETF (IPO), a basket of recent IPOs, is up 22% this year, many of the companies in that ETF are two years old or more. There simply has not been enough IPOs to repopulate it with newer offerings. There are now only 32 holdings in the ETF, with half that were there two years ago.
IPOs: Total raised
2024 YTD: $28.8 billion
2023: $19.4 billion
2022: $7.7 billion
2021: $142 billion (record)
2020: $78 billion
2019: $46 billion
2018: $47 billion
2017: $35.5 billion
Source: Renaissance Capital
Largest IPOs of 2024 (from IPO price)
Reddit – up 364%
Astera Labs – up 228%
Rubrik – up 112%
UL Solutions – up 80%
OneStream – up 52%
Waystar – up 56%
Ibotta – down 15%
Ingram Micro – down 1%
8. Increased Use of Employee ChatGPT
9. New Hedge Fund Launches Set to Hit 24-Year Low
Via Reuters: New hedge fund launches will ‘likely’ end the year at their lowest in 24 years amid tough fundraising conditions, hedge fund research firm Preqin said on Wednesday, based on numbers from the first three quarters of this year.
By the third quarter of 2024, hedge fund managers opened 123 new funds, the lowest number since at least 2000 when total launches reached 191, Preqin said. Hedge fund debuts peaked at 697 in 2017, according to its data.
4. Will South Korea Follow Japan With Stock Market Reforms
Per Bloomberg, South Korea’s oligarchs have held near unchallenged power over almost every aspect of the economy for half a century. They run the biggest companies, command political clout and engineer arcane business deals that enrich themselves, often at the expense of their shareholders.
Now, regulators and investors are fighting back. And the potential ouster of President Yoon Suk Yeol after his short-lived declaration of martial law is likely to supercharge the process.
5. Equal Weight Tech Index Hitting New Highs
6. U.S. Stocks Are At All-Time High In Global Stock Market Cap
7. Germany: A Country Losing Economic Ground
8. The FED Has Shed 43% Of Its Assets Since 2022 QE
9. U.S. Adults Are Getting Worse At Reading And Math
From Morning Brew: Americans are increasingly flustered by words and numbers, according to a test that measures adult literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills in 31 industrialized countries.
The report card revealed an expanding gap between the most and least adept Americans in their ability to handle everyday tasks—from calculating an average to understanding a government email.
See me after class: The 2023 assessment of 4,600 US adults showed:
The share of Americans scoring at the lowest level (1 out of 5) or below in literacy rose to 28% from 19% in 2017.
And 34% scored at the lowest numeracy level or below, compared to 29% six years prior.
That means that over a quarter of Americans can reliably gauge info only from a simple text, while more than a third might struggle to perform tasks beyond basic arithmetic.
But the decline wasn’t even: The 90th percentile score didn’t drop for literacy and numeracy but the 10th percentile score for both decreased.
The US isn’t alone: Average literacy and numeracy scores dropped in 20 and 11 countries, respectively, which some researchers blame on less reading and more scrolling, though some of it could be due to aging populations and language difficulties stemming from increased immigration. Finland ranked No. 1 in both literacy and numeracy, while sharing first place with Japan in problem-solving.
10. MasterClass Is Introducing AI Mentors, Including A Mark Cuban Chatbot
From Inc.: MasterClass is bringing its famous teachers into the AI arena.
The online learning platform known for its wide variety of celebrity instructors is launching MasterClass On Call, a standalone product that will allow customers to chat with AI-powered duplicates of the platform’s teachers. The cost will be $10 per month or $84 per year.
MasterClass founder and CEO David Rogier says the company has been experimenting with the concept of AI versions of its instructors since the launch of OpenAI’s GPT-3 in 2022. He sees the technology as the key to unlocking a feature that MasterClass customers have been requesting for years: the ability to ask its celebrity instructors for advice. Big names like Ray Dalio, Richard Branson, and yes, Mark Cuban, have already inked deals to collaborate with MasterClass on these AI personas.
With the rise of generative AI, Rogier says a shift toward on-demand learning is underway. “If I’m negotiating a business deal, I need advice right now,” he says. “I don’t want to sit through an eight-hour class. Just tell me what to do.”
Subscribers to MasterClass On Call will gain unlimited, on-demand access to a collection of AI personas designed to be artificial mentors. For example, Rogier says that aspiring entrepreneurs could ask Cuban’s AI to help improve a pitch and role-play as a potential investor. Cuban said in a statement that the new product is “going to be an important tool for entrepreneurs and something I’m excited to be a part of.”
In an exclusive demo, Inc. got access to AI versions of sleep expert Matt Walker and Black Swan Group founder and former FBI hostage negotiator Chris Voss, the first two personas currently available in the public beta. The AI voices are remarkably similar to their human counterparts, with natural-sounding cadence and fast response times. When asked for help with a hypothetical salary negotiation, the AI-Voss discussed how to approach the conversation, provided tips on how to strike a balance between confidence and humility, and drafted an initial outreach email.
Future updates will bring new in-development personas, enable the AI mentors to remember previous conversations, and give users the ability to upload documents (like pitch decks) for the AI instructors to review.
Creating these AI mentors is no easy feat. MasterClass chief technology officer Mandar Bapaye says that the company links together “an orchestra of multiple AI models” to handle individual components, like providing the mentors’ knowledge base or transforming text into speech.
The knowledge model is trained on information contained in the mentors’ already-existing MasterClass courses, along with a curated selection of writings and audio recordings. In addition, MasterClass holds extensive interviews with mentors to gather both voice samples and data regarding how they respond to a wide variety of questions. Mentors also give periodic feedback to continuously improve the AI’s performance, like choosing which of two responses to the same question is more accurate to the advice the mentor would actually give.
When MasterClass began internal tests of On Call, Rogier was surprised by how comfortable people were talking to the AI mentors. Early testers felt more comfortable sharing with the AI because they didn’t feel any judgement or pressure to impress anyone. They were empowered to ask the “dumb questions” they might be embarrassed to ask otherwise, says Rogier.
MasterClass On Call is now available in beta with access to Voss’s and Walker’s AI personas. More mentors, including fashion designer and Queer Eye style expert Tan France, superstar chef Gordon Ramsay, and legendary feminist writer Gloria Steinem are expected to be added over the coming months.
Take a look at a short video about the new feature here.
1. WallStreetBets Sentiment Is Back To Its Earlier Highs
Via Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)
2. Assets In Leveraged Long ETFs Exceed Short Product By Record
3. Momentum Stocks Down 4.4% Yesterday
Sachs has what it calls the “high beta momentum long/short index,” and on Monday that grouping tumbled 6.1%, its worst daily performance since Feb. 2023. Morgan Stanley has its own momentum long index, which fell 4.4%; Bloomberg’s ‘pure momentum’ factor suffered its worst day in two years. The definitions slightly vary but all agreed that momo, as it’s called, was a mess.
4. Best Performing 2024 Stocks Were Down 2.9% Yesterday
If you’ve had a good year so far in the stock market, chances are you had a pretty bad day in the market today. On the surface, today’s action wasn’t awful. The S&P 500 (SPY) was down 0.5% while the Russell 1,000 was down 0.7%. Within the Russell 1,000, the average stock was down even less at -0.33%.
So what’s the big deal? Well, what made today noteworthy was the near-perfect performance distribution based on how stocks had performed so far this year heading into today. In the chart below, we’ve broken up the Russell 1,000 into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on YTD stock performance through last Friday. Decile 1 contains the 100 best-performing stocks YTD, decile 2 contains the next best 100, and so on until you get to decile 10, which contains the year’s bottom 10% of performers. In the chart, we show the average performance today of the stocks in each decile. As shown, the decile of the best-performing stocks YTD through last Friday was down 2.9% today, while the decile of the worst-performing stocks YTD was up 2%! As you work your way down from the best decile to the worst, today’s performance gets better and better.
From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading: Mike O’Rourke noted the unwind tied to the Morgan Stanley US Momentum Index. “The Long/Short index had a return of 65% year to date coming into today’s session. The index cratered 6.7% in the first 90 minutes of trading today before settling in for a 5.5% decline on the session. It was the largest single day decline for the index since early February of 2023.”
9. Lithium Supply Surplus Set To Stay With Battery Makers’ Help
Per Reuters: Many lithium mines, led by Chinese operators, are maintaining production of the raw material needed for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, in defiance of prices weak enough to trigger mass output cuts – providing a boon for battery makers.
The continued production raises the prospect of years of oversupply and of weak prices.
Some battery makers own mines or have injected cash into operations to keep them operational, company reports show.
Mines were also maintaining production to retain market share and good relations with governments and because closures and restarts can lead to technical issues, according to interviews with miners, consultants and analysts.
So far, around a dozen lithium producers have temporarily shut loss-making mines, trimmed output or delayed expansions.
Many others are still operating, meaning the global supply glut of the mineral needed for batteries for stationary storage, as well as for EVs, is likely to last for several years and keep prices low, the industry insiders and analysts said.
Live This Day As If It Were Your Last: On the surface this sound like you’re trying to turn your life into some sort of Jackass-meets-the-Purge situation. But it doesn’t need to be that extreme. If you’re not occasionally ditching responsibilities to belt out “Total Eclipse of the Heart” to a crowd of strangers in a karaoke bar at 2 a.m., you’re not living.
Live This Year As If It Were Your Last: It’s not the end… but you can see it from here. You have time, but not too much time. This can help you prioritize without going crazy. And you’ll be more grateful.
Live This Day As If It Were Your First: “Be present” isn’t just a Pinterest quote for people who wear hemp. Really look around and notice the things you’ve come to ignore. See the world like a child again.
Live This Day As If You Were Living It For The Second Time: With the weight of that invisible, non-existent first day looming over you like a disapproving gym coach, you’ll skip some of the dumb decisions that usually leave you feeling like you’ve been hit by the regret bus. And you’ll seize those opportunities that make life memorable.
EXPERT OPINION BY PETER ECONOMY, THE LEADERSHIP GUY @BIZZWRITER What separates extraordinary leaders from those who aren’t so great? What do the most respected leaders have in common? Research shows that leaders spend more than 75 percent of their time communicating, and extraordinary leaders have developed powerful communication skills as part of their personal leadership practices. Which leads to this question: What communication skills do these highly successful leaders consistently use? The answers reflect both science and art. The best leaders have high self-awareness and are flexible, adaptable, and balanced between chaos and stability. They are acutely aware that they must first manage themselves if they hope to successfully communicate with others. Here are seven powerful communication skills that separate the very best leaders from the rest: 1. They are fearlessly authentic. The most successful leaders courageously open themselves up to others. It takes equal measures of confidence and humility to be vulnerable. Vulnerability in turn creates safety, liberating the organization from battles for survival to help them unleash their innate creativity, drive, and self-organization. Top executives refuse to hide behind polite discomfort, creating safety for others to openly offer differing views. 2. They carefully listen to the emotion behind the words. Top leaders don’t pay as much attention to the words themselves as they do to the emotion behind the message. Identifying the underlying emotion eliminates the defense or pretenses and helps them quickly cut through all the noise that stands between them and the core issues at play. 3. They don’t blame or accuse others. The best leaders take responsibility for their own emotions. Therefore, they never blame others for how they feel. As masters of their own emotions, they consciously decide how they will feel and how they will react. By practicing focused awareness, Leaders avoid blaming and accusing others by not projecting onto others their own leftover negative mental models from past experiences. 4. They are grounded and centered. When listening, great leaders don’t get triggered by assigning their own meaning to what others say and react automatically. They can imagine what it must be like for the other person by stepping into their shoes. At the same time, they are comfortable in their own skin and therefore do not attempt to please others. When a team member states, “I don’t feel fulfilled in my job,” the leader doesn’t hear, “You are a bad leader.” Instead, they hear, “I need help.” This ability to be grounded creates safety for others and allows their reality to exist with equal merit as their own. 5. They are curious, not judgmental. While listening for emotions, leaders are open to and curious about all possibilities. If a colleague comes across as irrational, ridiculous, or overreacting, the best leaders become curious and carefully explore what is happening deeper without jumping to a conclusion. They know that judgment shuts off avenues for important discovery and learning. During this discovery, they can put aside their own emotions and pay focused attention. They can empathically imagine what must have happened for others to create the reality that comes across as irrational and validate that reality for them. 6. They look for patterns. Leaders have one ear on what others are saying (content) and the other on the interaction pattern (process). They are constantly scanning themselves, people, and processes to identify patterns and changes in the patterns. Through this constant, unbiased observation, the best leaders notice early indicators of an underlying issue. They then use their judgment-free curiosity to discover the source and manage it proactively. 7. They create a safe space. Highly successful leaders know their most important job is to create safety and belonging in their organization, which sets members free to unleash their innate creativity, innovation, passion, and drive. Whether delivering an address to the entire organization—or within a one-on-one meeting—they convey a sense of community and belonging. Great leaders protect and nurture their people under their wings. Top executives create a culture that does not tolerate behaviors that threaten that sense of safety and belonging, such as bullying, kingdom building, or favoritism. The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.
7. Good Reminder: 30-Year Mortgage Rates Were Never Below 5% Until Jan 2009
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rates were never below 5% in the data from Freddie Mac, which goes back to 1971, until the Fed started buying MBS in January 2009, which pushed mortgage rates below 5% for the first time ever.
8. Housing Supply: Still Undersupplied By Millions Of Units
Housing affordability remains one of the top economic issues facing American households. Both homeowners and renters have seen the cost of housing increase faster than other consumer prices, putting a significant strain on household budgets. As we have documented in several previous research notes, the root cause of decreased housing affordability is the fact that housing supply has not increased enough to match demand. Inadequate housing supply leads homeowners and renters to bid up the sale price and rent of available housing, which puts a squeeze on affordability.
In this spotlight we provide an updated estimate of the housing supply shortage relative to long-run housing demand. In our last published estimate from May of 2021, we estimated that the U.S. housing shortage was 3.8 million units as of Q4 2020. Our updated estimate based on data through Q3 2024 is that the U.S. housing shortage has declined slightly to 3.7 million units.
Exhibit 2 below breaks down how we arrived at the new estimate and compares it to prior estimates. Since our previous estimate for Q4 2020, the U.S. housing stock has increased by 5.8 million units, or an average annual rate of 2.1 million units per year. However, over that same time the number of households increased by 6.3 million (2.3 million annual rate), while target or latent households increased by 6.9 million (2.5 million annual rate). But despite the increases in housing stock and the much larger increase in household formation, our estimate of housing shortage is slightly lower than our previous estimate.
That’s due to our lower target vacancy rate assumption. Our previous analysis assumed a target vacancy rate of 13% which was the average vacancy rate during the period between Q1 1990 and Q2 2018. The target vacancy rate assumed units held off market would continue to remain high as was the trend at that time. However, since our last estimate, housing market conditions have changed, and the units held off market have been declining, especially since 2022. Therefore, we revised our target vacancy rate assumption to correspond to the stable period in the housing market which we consider was from Q1 1994 – Q4 2003. Thus, our target vacancy rate declined from 13% to 11.7%, reducing the number of vacant housing units needed by 1.3 million.
9. Google Says AI Weather Model Masters 15-day Forecast
A new artificial intelligence-based weather model can deliver 15-day forecasts with unrivaled accuracy and speed, a Google lab said, with potentially life-saving applications as climate change ramps up.
GenCast, invented by London-based AI research laboratory Google DeepMind, “showed better forecasting skill” than the current world-leading model, the company said Wednesday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produces predictions for 35 countries and is considered the global benchmark for meteorological accuracy.
But DeepMind said GenCast surpassed the precision of the center’s forecasts in more than 97 percent of the 1,320 real-world scenarios from 2019 which they were both tested on.
Details of its findings were published in Nature, a leading science journal.
ECMWF chief Florence Rabier told AFP the project was a “first step” towards integrating AI in weather forecasting but that “it is indeed a leap forward.”
At this stage it can be used to supplement their current models, she said.
“We are progressing year by year,” she added. “Any new method that can enhance and accelerate this progress is extremely welcome in the context of the extreme societal pressures of climate change.”
The model was trained on four decades of temperature, wind speed and air pressure data from 1979 to 2018 and can produce a 15-day forecast in just eight minutes — compared to the hours it currently takes.
“GenCast provides better forecasts of both day-to-day weather and extreme events than the top operational system… up to 15 days in advance,” a DeepMind statement said.
DeepMind said GenCast “consistently outperformed” the current leading forecast model when predicting extreme heat, extreme cold and high wind speeds.
“More accurate forecasts of risks of extreme weather can help officials safeguard more lives, avert damage, and save money,” DeepMind said.
Extreme weather is becoming more common and more severe as a result of human caused climate change.
In August 2023, a series of wildfires in Hawaii killed around 100 people. Authorities were criticized by locals who said they were given no warning of the impending blaze.
This summer, a sudden heatwave in Morocco killed at least 21 people over a 24-hour period. And in September, Hurricane Helene killed 237 people in Florida and other southeastern US states.
“I am confident that AI-based weather forecasting systems will continue to incrementally improve in the future, including better prediction of extreme events and their intensity, for which there is a lot of need to improve upon,” said David Schultz, a professor of synoptic meteorology at Manchester University, who was not involved in the research.
But he said these forecasting systems are reliant on the weather prediction models that are already running, such as that operated by ECMWF.
I was recently leading a seminar about public speaking, when one woman asked me how she should deal with speaking to reluctant audiences. She worked in health and safety, she explained, and people only attended talks about health and safety because they were compulsory. She seemed self-effacing and glum.
“Do you think health and safety is important?” I asked her. Yes, she did. “Do you think that if people understood your ideas better, it might prevent an awful accident?” Yes. Well, I suggested, perhaps that might be a starting point.
She might build her talk around the message, “The simplest-seeming details could save your life.” But not necessarily. Another good talk about health and safety could emphasise that when you pay attention to safety, you raise your game more generally: “health and safety doesn’t just save lives, it saves money.”
Or maybe there’s a different angle altogether. I’m not a health and safety expert, after all. But most people, I would hope, have at least one interesting thing they might want to share with the world. If you have one, start there.
In his book TED Talks, Chris Anderson (the head of TED, the conference that has become synonymous with compelling public speaking) emphasises the “throughline” — the thread that should connect everything in the speech, every story, every joke, every slide and every rousing call to action.
The throughline is the most important idea in public speaking. A good speaker mixes things up, varying tone and pace and subject-matter — but the one thing they should never mix up is their audience. That means linking everything, from tear-jerking anecdotes to statistical analysis, to the throughline. More fundamentally, it means knowing what the throughline is.
It isn’t easy to speak compellingly in front of an audience, but our fear of the occasion does us more harm than good. It’s best not to prepare in a defensive crouch. Instead, start with having something to say. Then say it.
Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 25 October 2024. Full article is here.
1. First Newsletter I Ever Read Starting in 1998…Art Cahsin RIP
2. Art Knew Communism Sucks…U.S. Productivity Separates From the Pack
A Wealth of Common Sense Blog—Joey Politano breaks down the productivity boom in the U.S. and how it compares to the rest of the developed world: He explains:Productivity growth is nothing short of the bedrock of progress–in the long run, creating more with the same amount of labor is the only way to durably increase wages, consumption, and society’s overall prosperity. That makes it such a historic achievement that American economic output per hour worked has risen 8.9% over the last five years–faster than the five years prior or any point in the 2010s–in spite of the COVID-19 pandemic.
3. U.S. Oil Production Per Day 47% Higher than Saudi Arabia in October
The Wall Street Journal reported that US officials anticipate the US will produce an average of 13.2 million barrels of oil per day this year, which was 47% higher than Saudi Arabia’s average in October.
Marketwatch-Altimeter Capital founder Brad Gerstner pounded the table for software stocks back in June, arguing the sector was trading 15% below its 10-year average. The call was prescient: the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF +3.89% has jumped 42% from its August lows. He shared this chart showing software multiples are still below their average and trading at a discount to pre-COVID multiples.
5. Small Caps are Only Group Trading Below 10-Year Average
Equities: Only small caps are trading at multiples below their 10-year average.
Source: The Daily Shot
6. Ethereum Close to Break-Out
ETHE no full break-out yet.
7. Morgan Stanley Projection on Weight Loss Drugs
8. Internet Retail Spike Post Covid
Jack Ablin Cresset Capital
9. xAI Raised $10B One-Year
10. Elites vs. elitism -Seth Godin
Tom Brady is an elite athlete. Few have even approached the stats he had playing football. And Catherine Walker, NSTA Science Teacher of the Year, is an elite, because her pedagogy and understanding give her the ability to create better outcomes for her students. There’s a hospital for special surgery, but all surgery is special if it’s surgery on someone you care about, so we seek out an elite doctor because outcomes matter.
Our culture prizes performance, we spend a lot of time ranking and measuring output. Fans of a team are rooting for their side to win, because identity is easily hooked into performance.
But this is not at all related to elitism. Elitism is a barrier, where we use a label to decide who gets to contribute and who is offered dignity. A law firm that only hires from a few law schools is elitist–they have no data to confirm that these recruits are more likely to contribute than others, they’re simply artificially limiting the pool they draw from.
Opening our filters and seeking a diversity of experience undermines elitist insecurity and creates the possibility for even better solutions and connection.
Elitism also shows up when elites who are arguably very good at something believe that this means that they’re also good at everything.
The scientific method isn’t elitist, nor is a stopwatch used to record the 100 meter dash. Seeking coherent arguments, logical approaches and a contribution that leads to better outcomes isn’t elitist, in fact, it’s precisely the opposite.
Barrons Oil companies are on a relentless quest to produce more oil at lower costs, and AI is boosting that effort. Their success has already been remarkable. Over the past decade, the U.S. pumped out 60% more oil a day with 40% fewer workers. The industry’s annual productivity gains in that stretch outpaced even those of online retailers, and are roughly seven times as large as those of the average U.S. business. By extracting more oil while reducing capital expenses and manpower, they’re lowering the costs at which they can drill profitably. In the Permian, the “break-even” price for oil producers has fallen to $40 a barrel from over $90 in 2012, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. AI should take that number even lower, boosting oil company margins and cash flow.
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised President-elect Donald Trump that Canada would toughen controls over the long undefended joint border, a senior Canadian official said on Sunday. Trudeau flew to Florida on Friday to have dinner with Trump, who has promised to slap tariffs on Canadian imports unless Ottawa prevents migrants and drugs from crossing the frontier. Canada sends 75% of all goods and services exports to the United States and tariffs would badly hurt the economy.
8. The Ethereum-Bitcoin Ratio
Yahoo Finance Bram Berkowitz, The Motley Fool Given their history and the fact that cryptocurrencies can be hard to value because they have no intrinsic value, many investors have looked for trends between the prices of Ethereum and Bitcoin. After all, groups of stocks are often compared to one another to determine relative valuation. A simple way to track Bitcoin and Ethereum is by looking at the relationship between Ethereum’s and Bitcoin’s prices by dividing the price of Ethereum by the price of Bitcoin. Seeing where this ratio has trended over time can offer clues as to which looks undervalued or overvalued relative to the other.
Data source: TradingView. Chart by author. As you can see in the chart, the Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio recently fell toward 0.035, the lowest level seen since April 2021. The average ratio dating back to 2020 is 0.0538. Ethereum has performed well since Election Day, up roughly 38% compared to Bitcoin’s 44%. However, Bitcoin has widely outperformed this year.
10. AI Predicts Neuroscience Study Results Better Than Experts
Psychology Today LLMs beat human neuroscience experts in predicting study outcomes.
The results were clear—each LLM (Large Language Model) beat human neuroscience experts by a wide margin. The LLMs average accuracy of 81.4 percent far exceeded the 63.4 percent average of human experts.
Next, the scientists created a new LLM called BrainGPT by fine-tuning an existing version of Mistral and training data from twenty years of neuroscience publications from a hundred journals published during 2002-2022. BrainGPT had an 86 percent accuracy in predicting neuroscience study results, which was a three percent gain from the general-purpose version of Mistral.
“LLMs can be part of larger systems that assist researchers in determining the best experiment to conduct next,” the researchers wrote.
The ability to predict results of neuroscience research in advance can help guide neuroscientists to optimize limited resources such as time and money, enable timely adjustments based on probable outcomes, and augment our understanding of the brain and central nervous system that may lead to better treatments and health interventions.
This proof of concept is not limited to neuroscience. According to the scientists, none of their methods used was specific just to neuroscience and can be applied more broadly to other knowledge-intensive domains in the future.
“LLM’s impressive forward-looking capabilities suggest a future in which LLMs help scientists make discoveries,” the researchers concluded.
The proof that 7% mortgage rates are causing issues in the housing sector were evident in the U.S. New Homes Sales report that came out Tuesday. New homes sales dropped by 17.3% in October. It’s the biggest drop since 2013 and 8th worst going back to 1960. Source: Mike Zaccardi
10. What the Matthew Effect Reveals About Career Success
Psychology Today Understand the psychology of success and apply it to advance your career.-Benjamin Laker
KEY POINTS
Early career wins can snowball into greater opportunities, reinforcing long-term success.
Visibility and recognition amplify success, making it crucial to showcase achievements.
Networking builds on the Matthew Effect by opening doors through trusted connections.
Have you ever noticed that some people seem to climb the career ladder effortlessly, while others struggle to get their foot on the first rung? This isn’t always about talent or hard work—although both are important. Often, it’s about the Matthew Effect: the idea that initial success can create a snowball effect, making future success easier to achieve. Psychologically, this dynamic taps into the way human perception and social behaviours amplify advantage. Success signals competence and reliability, which are qualities that others instinctively gravitate toward when making decisions about promotions, collaborations, or mentorship. This principle, named after a biblical verse about those who have being given more, explains why some professionals seem to advance faster and more smoothly than others. Understanding how this dynamic works—not just externally, but in the minds of those who influence your career—can help you harness it to your advantage.
Starting Strong: The Power of Early Wins
The first big break in your career often sets the stage for everything that follows. Think of a young graphic designer who lands a high-profile client early on. That one project, if handled well, opens the door to bigger opportunities, referrals, and a growing portfolio of impressive work. The success becomes self-reinforcing: More clients want to work with someone who’s already successful. Early recognition builds confidence—not just in you, but in the people around you. When your manager sees you excel in one area, they’re more likely to trust you with bigger responsibilities. This phenomenon feeds into workplace psychology, where competence is often perceived rather than measured. One success leads colleagues and supervisors to view you as reliable, creating a positive feedback loop. How to Apply This:
Focus on excelling in one key project or role early in your career. Success in one area can act as a launchpad, so treat every early opportunity as a chance to build your reputation.
Say yes to opportunities that might stretch your skills but offer high visibility. A bit of risk in the beginning can pay off in long-term career growth.
Building Momentum: The Importance of Visibility
Visibility is crucial to the Matthew Effect. If people don’t know about your achievements, it’s hard for success to compound. Think of an employee who consistently delivers outstanding work but doesn’t share their accomplishments. They may be overshadowed by a colleague who’s just as competent but better at self-promotion. Consider the example of a mid-level marketing manager. By regularly presenting their team’s results at company meetings, they ensure leadershipassociates their name with success. This visibility can lead to opportunities like promotions, speaking engagements, or even being headhunted by other companies. Perception matters in the workplace, and being seen as a high performer often leads to more opportunities than quietly excelling behind the scenes. How to Apply This:
Learn to share your successes without coming across as boastful. Frame your achievements as team efforts or solutions to challenges, which makes self-promotion more palatable.
Use tools like LinkedIn to showcase your work and build a personal brand. A well-maintained profile can open doors to collaborations, new roles, or mentorship opportunities.
Leveraging Networks: Success Through Connections
Another key driver of the Matthew Effect is the power of networks. People with strong professional networks are often exposed to more opportunities than those with limited connections. A tech entrepreneur, for example, might get their first big break by pitching to a mentor who introduces them to an investor. Once they have one investor, others follow, because the initial endorsement signals credibility. Psychologically, people tend to associate success with competence. When you’re recommended by someone respected in your field, that recommendation carries weight. This is why networking isn’t just about meeting people—it’s about creating meaningful relationships that lead to trust and mutual benefit. How to Apply This:
Prioritise networking early in your career. Attend industry events, join professional organisations, and engage with colleagues outside of your immediate team.
Stay in touch with your network by offering value—sharing resources, celebrating their successes, or introducing them to others. A strong network should feel reciprocal, not transactional.
Compounding Skills: How Small Improvements Create Big Gains
The Matthew Effect doesn’t just rely on external factors like visibility and networking; it also plays out internally through skill development. Consider an entry-level journalist who invests time in improving their writing, researching, and interviewing techniques. Over time, these incremental gains lead to mastery, making them a standout in their field. As their reputation grows, they’re entrusted with more significant assignments, which further improve their skills. This compounding effect is a psychological motivator: When you see tangible results from your effort, you’re more likely to continue investing in your development. Success breeds confidence, and confidence inspires further effort, creating an upward spiral. How to Apply This:
Focus on developing one high-impact skill at a time. Mastery in one area often opens doors to opportunities that allow you to develop others.
Seek feedback regularly. Knowing where you’re excelling and where you can improve will help you grow faster and more strategically.
Turning the Matthew Effect Into Your Career Ally
The Matthew Effect can seem unfair at first glance—after all, it rewards those who are already ahead. But recognising how it works gives you the tools to use it to your advantage. By seeking early wins, making your achievements visible, building strong networks, and investing in your skills, you can create the conditions for compounding success. While initial breaks are helpful, the real power of the Matthew Effect lies in your ability to capitalise on opportunities and build momentum. For those starting from a disadvantaged position, the key is persistence and strategic focus. Every small win counts and can snowball into something much larger over time. Success may not come overnight, but understanding and leveraging the psychology of success can put you on a steady path toward it.
10. Russia Keeps Duping Foreign Fighters into Ukraine
Russia reportedly recruits Yemeni fighters for war in Ukraine Mathias HammerThe News-Semafor
Russia has recruited hundreds of Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine, the Financial Times reported, as the Kremlin increasingly looks to foreign troops to limit the impact of the war on the domestic population.
The men were seemingly recruited by a group linked to the Iran-backed Houthis, which promised them lucrative jobs and Russian citizenship, but they were instead sent to fight in Ukraine, some of the men told the FT.
Both Russia and Ukraine have struggled to recruit enough troops to replace their battlefield casualties; to avoid a costly and unpopular mobilization effort at home, the Kremlin has instead used more foreign fighters, including those from Nepal and India, as well as an estimated 12,000 North Korean soldiers.
The US special envoy for Yemen said Russia is discussing weapons transfers with the Houthis that could allow the group to more accurately target ships in the Red Sea. Since Israel’s war in Gaza began last year, the Houthis have attacked at least 90 merchant ships in an apparent show of solidarity with Hamas, another Tehran-backed group.
1. Number of International Markets Hitting Lows Reached Highest Level of Year
U.S. Is Still No. 1. HMR Insights. Hi Mount Research. himountresearch.substack.com Nov. 17: The number of markets hitting new lows reached its highest level of the year. The late-September spike (when half the world was making new highs) seems like a distant memory at this point. As it stands now, less than a fifth of markets are above their 50-day average and less than half are still above their 200-day average. Global weakness last week helped confirm one of the most durable trends over the past decade as the U.S. hit a new high versus the rest of the world (again). Willie Delwiche. Barrons
Vanguard International ETF on 200-Day
2. China -22% from Stimulus Rally High
Bespoke Investment Group
Chinese Stocks in Free Fall-In the US, equities have staged a solid rally this month with most of the move occurring after the election. Elsewhere in the world, equities haven’t exactly shared in the gains. Chinese stocks, using the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) as a proxy, surged throughout September and into early October as stimulus measures were announced. After a massive 42.7% gain from the end of August through the closing high on October 7th, MCHI reversed lower and was down 14.5% by Election Day. Headed into the election, MCHI actually stabilized somewhat, but post election it has taken another leg lower as it is now down 9% since then and 22.2% since the October high. As shown below, the ETF is also now in no-man’s-land trading smack in the middle of its 200 and 50-DMAs with gaps to fill from the September post-stimulus run up.
Teas made from the tea plant come in four basic varieties: black, oolong, green, and white. They differ in flavor and color depending on how the leaves of the plant are picked, rolled, crushed, and exposed to air before drying.
For example, black teas are exposed to the air for an extended period before being steamed and dried, which promotes oxidation and gives the tea its dark color and deep flavor. Oolong teas are exposed for a shorter time, creating a slightly milder color and flavor. The leaves in green tea retain their color because they’re steamed and dried soon after picking, preventing most oxidation, so green tea has a grassier, more herbal flavor. White teas are even lighter in color and flavor because they’re made from young tea buds that are steamed and dried immediately after picking.
In addition to the obvious differences in color and flavor, there are some differences in health effects. Most notably, the darker the tea, the higher the caffeine level tends to be. An 8-ounce cup of black tea, for example, usually has about 40 to 60 milligrams of caffeine, about half of what’s in a typical cup of brewed coffee and about twice as much as what’s in green tea.
While caffeine can promote alertness, too much can make you jittery and possibly pose other health risks. That’s why the Food and Drug Administration recommends consuming no more than 400 mg of it per day. If you are watching your caffeine intake, then, you may want to drink more green tea, for example, than black. Note, though, that how much caffeine ends up in a cup of tea can vary from product to product, and also depends on how long you let it steep. So monitor how you feel after drinking your tea and adjust accordingly.
There are also some subtle differences among tea types in the amounts of antioxidants—a broad class of substances that offer a multitude of health benefits—they contain. But overall, they are all excellent sources of those beneficial compounds, says Michelle Francl, PhD, professor of chemistry at Bryn Mawr College in Pa., who’s also the author of the book “Steeped: The Chemistry of Tea” (Royal Society of Chemistry, 2024). “Even though we tend to think of green tea as kind of healthier than black tea, the [antioxidant] profiles are practically all the same,” she says.
Here’s a quick rundown of tea’s likely health benefits and the compounds thought to contribute to them.
Heart Disease
Polyphenol antioxidants in tea seem to relax blood vessels, which could prevent them from constricting. And catechins, a type of polyphenol, may reduce levels of LDL (bad) cholesterol and keep levels of HDL (good) cholesterol high. That could help prevent plaque from building up in your arteries. In combination, these effects may explain why research generally suggests that tea reduces the risk of heart attack and possibly other forms of heart disease.
Diabetes
Catchins as well as theaflavins, which are another type of antioxidants found in tea, appear to affect how the body regulates insulin and blood sugar. And a study in the Journal of General Internal Medicine found that people who drank four or more cups of tea per day had a 20 percent lower risk of type 2 diabetes than those who drank less.
Weight Loss
Tea, especially green tea, has a reputation as a weight loss aid. And the combination of caffeine and catechins may boost your metabolism, some research suggests, which could translate into weight loss. However, that effect appears modest at best. Note that there’s little evidence that green tea supplements marketed for weight loss help in that effort, and some research has raised safety concerns about them, so it’s probably wise to skip them.
Bone Health
Tea’s effect on your skeleton is complicated because some research has found that caffeine may be bad for the bones. But a number of studies over the years suggest that drinking tea doesn’t reduce bone density, and may actually strengthen bones. For example, a 2022 study of 3,530 postmenopausal women found that those who drank one to three cups of green tea daily had lower rates of osteopenia (weakened bones) and osteoporosis (decreased bone mass) compared with people who consumed less than one cup daily.
Cancer
The catechins in tea, perhaps especially green tea, may suppress the growth or spread of certain kinds of cancer cells, according to a 2022 study in Frontiers in Nutrition. The study linked tea consumption to a possible reduced risk of gynecological, digestive, liver, lung, and gallbladder cancers.
Cognitive Decline
Regularly drinking tea may combat some of the normal declines in cognitive function that come with age, according to several studies, including a 2022 analysis in the journal Frontiers of Aging Neuroscience that looked at 36 previously published articles. One possible explanation for that apparent benefit is that the antioxidants in the beverage shield the brain from damage.
What About Herbal Teas?
Peppermint, chamomile, eucalyptus, echinacea, ginger, slippery elm—those are just a few of the hundreds of herbal teas you can buy, alone or in combination. They often have purported health benefits, from helping to soothe a sore throat, improving sleep, and relieving menstrual pain to easing stress, boosting immunity, and aiding digestion. But in part because there are so many of them, with so many different potential health claims, it can be hard to document their benefits with hard, scientific research.
That said, herbal teas often contain some of the same antioxidants and other healthful compounds found in true teas. Many of them also have long histories of use as traditional medicines from around the world, with few known risks when consumed in typical formulations. And, of course, they can be no-calorie ways to keep yourself hydrated—and many people find relief, or just comfort, from a soothing cup of hot herbal tea.
8. Another Chart on Federal Government Spending ..DOGE Won’t Be Easy
DC Lite Blog
DOGE vs. government spending. “As for the Department of Government Efficiency, good luck with that. Entitlements are an increasingly large share of total government spending, and previous budget agreements will already cut non-defense discretionary spending to the lowest share of GDP on record.”
9. U.S. office property prices fall another 19% from a year ago
By Joy Wiltermuth Marketwatch
Signs of gradual stabilization of U.S. commercial real estate continued in October, except for office buildings, according to a closely followed price index. (MSCI RCA CPPI). Prices for offices in U.S. central business districts fell another 18.7% in October from a year ago, putting their three-year drop at 50.7%, according to MSCI’s latest RCA commercial property-price index.
Nationally, all property prices were down only 1.5% from a year ago, reinforcing expectations of a gradual recovery in the U.S. market has been taking hold. The Federal Reserve started cutting short-term rates in September, but long-term rates that finance the economy have shot higher, dashing hopes for lower borrowing costs for many landlords.
DC Lite Blog Equity positioning. “Consolidated equity positioning has reached the 94th percentile, approaching extreme levels and indicating robust market sentiment.”
Dave Lutz Jones Trading 9 out of the 10 most-traded options wagered on gains. The highest activity was in calls expiring in January with a $55 strike, followed by December expiry at $65 — 25% above the exchange-traded fund’s closing price on Monday.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust is the largest portfolio for the token and one of 12 US spot-Bitcoin ETFs. The group has attracted a net inflow of about $29 billion since going live in January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
5. Third Year of Bull Market 2025
6. Healthcare Stocks Sold Off Post Trump Election Except Devices
Medical Device ETF
7. KWEB China Internet ETF…Rally on Stimulus then -23% Pullback
8. Social Spending as Percentage of GDP
9. First-Time Buyers Share of Housing Purchases Hits All-Time Lows
Via WSJ: America’s Homes Are Piggy Banks That Few People Can Afford to Raid (click chart to read)
Ethereum ETF flows. “Ethereum ETFs have made a quick and sudden rise from the deep dark depths of cumulative outflows following the Election, finally into fresh air and net inflows.”
3. Small Cap Gives Gains Back Again
MarketEar Blog
4. Mexican Peso vs. U.S. Dollar Straight Down…Tariff Fear
By Sonali Basak and Ryan Gould There are hundreds of private technology companies waiting for the market for initial public offerings to open up, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. global chair of technology investment banking, with clarity on the US election expected to provide a shot in the arm for listing hopefuls.“When we look at our analysis, we have about 750 quality companies in tech alone that want to get out,” Madhu Namburi said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Sixty to 70 companies go public in a normal year. That’s a lot of backlog.”With the election in the rearview mirror, the market is showing signs of wanting to reward companies prioritizing growth as opposed to just profitability, Namburi said.
SMCI holding around 200-week moving average and 2023 lows.
9. America Needs Housing Supply
Trump Should Bring On a Great American Housing Boom by The Editors of Bloomberg News, 11/19/24 First, the administration should encourage a wave of rezoning and deregulation at state and local levels, which is the source of most of the friction. In his first term, Trump promised an effort along these lines and established a council to study the problem. This time around, he should act on its recommendations, including by helping local governments dial back costly requirements such as parking minimums and minimum lot sizes and speed up permitting. Perhaps the “freedom cities” Trump says he wants to build on federal land (details TBD) might be exemplars in this regard.
More prosaically, the administration should change federal policies that needlessly raise the cost of construction. This could include reducing certain tariffs — such as those on Canadian lumber, which were sharply increased during the Biden administration — as well as expediting environmental reviews and reducing red tape. To help address the 288,000 job openings in construction, up from an average of 190,000 since 2000, Trump could create incentives for community colleges and vocational schools to provide relevant training and offer more visas for qualified immigrants. Finally, Trump has promised to reduce interest rates, which would certainly help make housing more affordable
10. Retired Navy SEAL Jocko Willink shares 5 go-to exercises to get stronger and live longer with minimal equipment -Business Insider
Jocko Willink starts his day at 4:30 a.m. with a workout, a habit he picked up in the Navy SEALs. Courtesy of Jocko WillinkGabby Landsverk Nov 19, 2024, 7:45 AM EST
Jocko Willink, a retired Navy SEAL and Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, works out up to 3 hours a day.
He varies his exercises to stay healthy long-term and avoid having any athletic weaknesses.
Exercises like push-ups, squats, and rucking are a part of his routine for overall strength and stamina.
Whether you want to build muscle, burn fat, or live longer, some of the simplest exercises are the best place to start, according to retired Navy SEAL Jocko Willink. Willink, a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu, said he wakes up at 4:30 a.m. every day to work out for up to three hours. He varies the exercises to avoid having any major weaknesses as an athlete, and more importantly, to keep him ready for any challenge life throws at him. “There is no more important strategic goal in our lives than staying healthy,” he told Business Insider. While he has a massive garage gym, Willink said the most tried-and-true exercises require minimal equipment. Movements like pull-ups, squats, sprints, and rucking (carrying weight) can help you put in the work without overcomplicating your workouts. The latest research also suggests that the benefits of these movements — getting stronger, improving your resilience, and boosting heart health — can help you live longer, too. “Going back to the basics and doing things that have been used for decades is a solid way to go,” Willink said. “You can never go wrong with those.” Bodyweight exercises can build strength and muscle without a gym For getting stronger and more muscular, it’s hard to beat bodyweight movements like pull-ups, push-ups, and dips, Willink said. They work the major muscle groups in the upper body and core, improve stability, and don’t require much equipment beyond a bar or bench. Do enough of them, and you can also raise your heart rate enough to get some cardio benefits. Scaling exercises like push-ups to make them easier can help you get the benefits even as a fitness beginner. And if you’re still working up to your first pull-up, starter movements like eccentrics can help you get there. Squats are key for a strong lower body For stronger legs and overall fitness, squats have big benefits: building your glutes, hamstrings and quads, strengthening your core, and improving stability. Willink said he does squats for better mobility, too, since using a full range of motion can help keep the joints like the hips, knees, and ankles strong and healthy. “When I squat, I’m squatting all the way down,” he said. Burpees offer a quick workout on the go Willink said he travels quite a bit, but doesn’t slack off on the road and will wake up and hit 100 burpees in his hotel room if necessary. “There are definitely days that I try to figure out a way to just move. You’ve got to do some minimum work,” he said. Burpees offer a total-body workout for explosiveness and endurance in just a few minutes. If you hate them, lean into it; it pays to put your ego aside and work on your weaknesses, according to Willink. “One of the key components here is that what we need to do as people is watch out for the things you don’t like doing,” he said. Sprint intervals can boost your explosive power and cardio Willink said he incorporates running, rowing, swimming and other cardio into his workouts, but not only as long, steady endurance sessions. He also does repeated short, explosive efforts to keep his skillset as versatile as possible. “I want to be able to do a bunch of different things but at the same time, I don’t want to lose a movement or an area where I’m ridiculously weak.” he said. “But if I would go to extremes and become a marathon runner, I’d be smaller and lighter and my ability to do jiu jitsu would be weaker.” Rucking offers full-body benefits Willink is a big fan of a military-based exercise called rucking, which involves walking, hiking, or running with a weighted back. Rucking has become a hot fitness trend outside the military for people who want to build muscle, burn fat, and improve their stamina all at once. He uses a 75-85 pound pack, but you don’t need to go that heavy to start rucking. An ordinary backpack with books, water bottles, or similar weight can work. Willink said he’s glad to see the exercise getting more popular, since it taps into a basic human movement and a mindset of tackling challenges. “You’re going to experience some suffering and you have to push through it,” he said. “It’s hard but it’s meditative. You don’t have to think about it. It’s the simplest movement that humans do,” Willink said.
Fund Manager Survey: Likewise, the BofA fund manager survey (1-7 Nov), also saw a surge; not quite to all time highs on this one, but a clear bullish shift among these larger real money investors.
5. Amazon New Highs Launches Competition for TEMU and SHEIN
Morningbrew
6. Bonds Higher Yield than Stocks for First Time in 22 Years
7. Junior Gold Miners -18% Since Election
8. Europe -10% Correction into U.S. Election
9. Which Countries Hit Hardest by Tariffs?
From Zach Goldberg Jefferies …DB ranked the countries that are likely to be hardest hit by potential US tariffs, based on their economic reliance on US trade and potential scope of new levies. The top three hardest hit: Mexico, Vietnam and Canada.
A digital token inspired by a Shiba Inu dog meme is now worth more than the company that pioneered the assembly line. Yesterday, dogecoin continued its post-election surge to become more valuable than 121-year-old Ford. As of last night, dogecoin had a market cap of $55.5 billion, compared to Ford’s $44 billion.
While all cryptocurrencies have popped since Election Day, Elon Musk’s preferred token, dogecoin, stands out with a ~157% gain. But at a price of around 40 cents, it remains far below its record high of 72 cents from 2021, per Business Insider.—NF
China’s trade surplus is hitting record highs, with customs data from the world’s second-largest economy showing that its export-heavy economy is more export-heavy than ever before. The difference between the value of goods imported and exported in China surged to $785 billion in the first 10 months this year, the highest on record for that period and an increase of almost 16% from 2023, per Bloomberg. That is an imbalance that won’t have gone unnoticed by the newly elected Trump administration, which has previously discussed slapping tariffs of 60% or more on shipments from China during the campaign — indeed, Google searches for the word “tariff” have soared in the last week (chart here). The case of China’s ballooning trade surplus is partly a short term story of how manufacturers ramped up shipments ahead of the busy season, and some potentially anticipating tariffs in the event of a Trump victory, as exports soared in October ahead of economists’ expectations. But this is really just a continuation of a bigger trend, as China has been increasingly relying on exports to compensate for the weakness of its domestic demand, with imports down 2.3% last month. The slowing economy, weak consumer spending, and China’s middle class becoming increasingly satisfied with domestic alternatives all seem to have contributed towards declining import demand. Brad Setser, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, summarized in a post on X: “[The] overall story is of an economy that is again growing off exports”. If — or perhaps more accurately given the rhetoric, when — Trump’s administration do announce more details on planned tariffs, analystsexpect Beijing to respond with more stimulus and a sharp depreciation of the renminbi; China’s central bank set its official exchange rate against the dollar at the lowest level in a year on Thursday.
10. I tried to hit my daily protein target while avoiding ultra-processed foods like protein powder and bars. I learned 4 lessons. Business Insider
Rachel Hosie tried to hit her protein target while avoiding ultra-processed foods. Boris SV/Getty, mastersky/Getty, Tyler Le/BI
I try to eat up to 130 grams of protein a day, and products like protein powder and bars can help.
Such foods are often ultra-processed and therefore linked to health risks, so I quit them for a week.
I didn’t like how the experiment made me fixate on the ingredients in food.
As a fitness and nutrition reporter, I’m slightly ashamed to say I’ve never paid close attention to how many ultra-processed foods I eat. I take a relatively relaxed approach to my diet and have always felt comfortable with the knowledge that whole foods make up most of it. I mostly focus on eating enough protein and fiber: I don’t track my food intake and haven’t done for years, but I know roughly how to get enough of each in my diet. Protein is important for overall health but is particularly helpful for active people, such as myself, as it helps muscles repair and rebuild after workouts. I try to eat around 110 to 130 grams of protein per day, and most days I consume one high-protein UPF like protein powder, fruity high-protein yogurt, or a protein bar, which have all exploded in popularity in recent years. According to Precedence Research, the global protein market was worth $10.37 billion in 2022 and is forecast to grow to $23.34 billion by 2032. With more studies pointing to the potential health risks of UPFs, I started to wonder if I could hit my protein target while avoiding them and keeping my calories in check (not just stuffing my face with vast quantities of peanut butter). For example, UK-based nutritionist Rob Hobson previously told Business Insider that he used to eat protein bars every day but cut down once he learned about the link between UPFs and a host of health issues plus weight gain. I tried cutting out high-protein UPFs for a week. There’s no set definition for a UPF, but it’s widely considered to mean any food or drink containing an ingredient you wouldn’t have in your own kitchen, such as emulsifiers. So that’s how I chose what to avoid. It was doable but required a lot of effort, and my diet also became more boring. Here are four lessons I learned. I had to pay close attention to ingredient lists The night before I started my experiment, I made some overnight oats for the following morning — without my usual scoop of protein powder. Instead, Greek yogurt and chia provided protein, and honey gave flavor and sweetness. It wasn’t until I was lying in bed that night that I realized I’d unthinkingly used almond milk — a UPF — as I would normally. Not a great start.
Overnight oats, and a grilled cheese sandwich with soup. Rachel Hosie/Business Insider Come lunchtime, and having not had time to go to the grocery store, I assessed the bread options in the freezer. One loaf was UPF, one, fortunately, wasn’t. While I was already aware of “sourfaux” — fake sourdough bread — I decided to pay more attention to which bread I buy. I was also pleased to find that the store-bought soup in my fridge was not a UPF either. So my go-to winter lunch of soup with a grilled cheese sandwich on sourdough bread was safe. When I went to the store, however, I realized not all soups are created equal, and sadly some of my favorites were UPFs. I didn’t like feeling that foods were off-limits It was hard to think of high-protein snacks to eat aside from more Greek yogurt. Some days I had an apple with peanut butter, but that got boring after a while and isn’t as high in protein as some people think. Satisfying my sweet tooth wasn’t particularly easy either — I don’t always want high-protein snacks, sometimes I just want a sweet treat. Nothing in my food cupboard was UPF-free, and I realized I’d have to bake from scratch, so blueberry muffins it was. As I gazed longingly at the chocolate in my cupboard, I started to feel uneasy. Having food “off-limits” felt all too familiar. It reminded me of being in the throes of diet culture 10 or so years ago, back when I thought certain foods were “bad” (which, of course, made me want them even more). As someone who’s come a long way and put a lot of work into breaking free from this restrictive mindset, I didn’t like the feeling that there were foods I couldn’t eat. I usually cook dinners from scratch and I realized I could make small tweaks to ensure they were UPF-free. For example, I like making pasta sauces with cream cheese, but I realized that some brands were UPF and others weren’t. Grocery shopping took longer than usual, but I figured that was inevitable at the start of the experiment and it would become less time-consuming as I learned which foods were UPF-free.
Pea pasta with chicken, chickpeas, butternut squash, leeks, and pine nuts; and a blueberry muffin. Rachel Hosie/Business Insider As a meat-eater, I find it easy to eat enough protein at dinner, and I regularly make dishes combining both meat and pulses — like a chili con carne with black beans — for the varied nutrients they provide. However, I was conscious of needing my dinner to do even more heavy lifting to hit my protein goal while avoiding UPFs. So I opted for pea pasta rather than the usual wholewheat, which contained 15 grams more protein per 100 grams. I preferred the texture and taste of regular pasta. My diet was more boring As the week wore on, I got bored of eating the same meals. The cinnamon and raisin bagels in the freezer and the cereal in my cupboard teased me as I ate the same two breakfasts on repeat (overnight oats with cow’s milk and sourdough toast with a side of Greek yogurt). I’m sure I could have been more experimental, but avoiding UPFs was taking enough planning without having to find new recipes to try. I managed to hit my protein target of 110 to 130 grams of protein each day, but my diet felt a bit less exciting. Come the weekend, when my fiancé wanted to order a pizza, I decided that life was too short to miss out, even for a one-off experiment. Ultimately, while most dietitians advise people to take a food-first approach to hitting their various health targets, they aren’t saying people need to eliminate UPFs, but most of us could benefit from cutting down. This experiment has made me more conscious of where I could make small tweaks that aren’t too much effort. But I’m not going to stress too much about having a scoop of protein powder here or there.
MicroStrategy buys $2 billion in bitcoin in 10 days. Is there $42 billion to go? Stock heads for first record in 24 years, as Coinbase and Mara shares also continue to ride the postelection cryptocurrency frenzy By Tomi Kilgore
7. Homebuilders Sideways for Months…No New Trump High
8. U.S. Dollar Makes New Highs On Trump
9. Rent vs. Buy Above Levels Coming Out of Housing Bust
Wolf Street “One effect of the prolonged period of relatively high home prices of the past four years is that we are seeing a slowly growing preference to rent rather than buy on consumers’ next move,” Fannie Mae said. “With rent growth expected to remain modest in 2025, more consumers may be seeking – and finding – attractive deals in the rental market as they continue saving toward a future home purchase,” Fannie Mae said.
10. Getting more light in the day and less at night is good for your health. Here’s why-NPR
By Will Stone Diet, exercise, sleep — all are fundamental to our health, but our relationship to light doesn’t get mentioned as much. Now, a massive new study suggests light-driven disruption can take years off our lives. Scientists tracked nearly 90,000 people in the U.K. who spent a week with wrist-worn activity devices equipped with light sensors. Then, they analyzed their risk of dying over the next eight years. The results were published in theProceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. The study participants with the brightest nights had a 21% to 34% higher risk of premature death, compared to those who were mostly in the dark between midnight and dawn. The opposite was true for daytime. People who enjoyed the brightest days had a 17% to 34% lower mortality risk than those who were in dim environments during the daytime. The data underscore that light represents an “emerging risk factor for poor health and longevity,” says Daniel Windred, lead author of the study and a postdoctoral researcher at Flinders University in Australia. Previous large-scale studies have found similar associations between mortality and light exposure, for example using satellite data and self-reports. However, the U.K study is the first to directly measure personal lighting environments around the clock. “It’s a very powerful study,” says Dr. Charles Czeisler, chief of the Division of Sleep and Circadian Disorders at the Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School. “We’re not talking about a marginal change. We’re talking about huge increases in risk associated with an easily modifiable risk factor,” he says. Your muscles keep time too. How circadian rhythms affect your workout and your health While the study can only show a correlation — not prove causality — the “dose-dependent” response to light was evident even when the researchers controlled for factors like socioeconomic advantage, income and physical activity. The results reflect decades of research indicating that our modern relationship to light can spell disaster for our circadian rhythms — the patterns in our physiology and behavior that fluctuate over the 24-hour cycle — influencing sleep, blood pressure, how we use energy, release hormones and countless other functions. “We are flooding the nighttime with light that was never possible before and shielding ourselves from light during the day,” says Czeisler. Here are four takeaways from the research.
Outside light is best The benefits of having bright days were consistent from early in the morning to late in the afternoon. Windred says it’s not hard to interpret the results: They represent people who were spending time outside in daylight. “There’s a massive jump in the intensity between an indoor and an outdoor environment,” he says. We’re talking orders of magnitude. In a typical indoor environment, you may be exposed to about 100 to 500 lux (a unit of measurement for light), compared to anywhere from 10,000 to over 100,000 lux depending on the conditions and time of day. Even a cloudy day can be well over 1,000 lux. The central circadian pacemaker in our brain is particularly sensitive to light in the morning, and prioritizing light at that time can make you more alert. But even if you can’t pull that off, Windred says you will still reap the benefits of outdoor light later in the day. “If you come home from work in the afternoon and the sun is up, it’s still a good time to get light.” In fact, Czeisler says people tend to underestimate the effects of being outside during dawn and dusk — times when you are being exposed to different wavelengths and intensities of light. “We think that these transitions are probably particularly important,” he says. As long as there’s daylight though, he encourages people to get outdoors, ideally for at least half an hour to 45 minutes. “It doesn’t have to be all at once,” he says, “This will do wonders for their health.”
Look for the contrasts You can picture circadian rhythms as undulating currents, with the ups and downs reflecting your body’s changes throughout the dark-light cycle. Digesting food, repairing organs, replenishing the energy in our brains and clearing out toxins, all of these function better if the circadian system resembles a robust wave. Sponsor Message And light is the most powerful cue. During the day, it can enhance our rhythms — and at night, suppress or shift their timing. “The study is highlighting that you really need this contrast,” says Laura Fonken, a neuroscientist at the University of Texas at Austin, “It’s not just about having too little light during the day or too much light at night.” Put another way: You don’t want your day and night lighting environments to be comparable. That can easily happen if you spend the bulk of your days in an office, without much natural lighting, she says.
How Messing With Our Body Clocks Can Raise Alarms With Health In fact, the U.K data suggest the harms can add up if light is causing your circadian rhythms to be misaligned on both fronts. “We estimate that people with both bright days and dark nights could be living up to five years longer than people with bright nights and dark days,” says Windred.
Light can be protective Bright days can also set you up for a better evening — improving your sleep and shielding you against some of the downsides of artificial light at night. “We know that exposure to broad daylight during the day can actually reduce the sensitivity of our circadian system to light exposure at night,” says Windred. Studies measuring the effect of nighttime light on the hormone melatonin, which promotes sleep, support this concept: Study participants who spent their daytime in dimly lit conditions had much greater melatonin suppression when they encountered light at night. That’s compared to those who were exposed to more light during the day. Czeisler says this doesn’t mean you will be completely impervious to the disruptive effects of light during the evening, especially the blue-enriched light that’s emitted from our devices. “That sends a direct signal to the brain saying it’s daytime,” he says. Czeisler’s lab has documented that reading from light-emitting tablets in the hours before you go to sleep can “shift your circadian rhythm, making it harder for you to fall asleep, more difficult for you to wake up and less likely that you’ll go to bed at an earlier hour the next day.”
Keep lights out in the dead of night People who had the lowest chance of dying in the coming years were exposed to barely any light between about midnight and 6am, the study found. On the other hand, bright light during the dead of night — specifically between 2:30 and 3am — was associated with the highest risk of mortality. “That’s the most important time to avoid light,” he says, “It also happens to be the time that the circadian system is the most sensitive to light.” In recent decades, scientists have linked light-driven disturbances to all manner of health problems — obesity, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, mental illness and other conditions. Scientists have even shown that misalignment of circadian rhythms over relatively short periods of time can mess with blood pressure and how the body handles glucose. The hazards of working the night shift are well-documented, especially for cardiovascular and metabolic health. In this latest study though, Czeisler points out even when shift workers were excluded from the analysis, the detrimental effects of bright light at 3 or 4 in the morning were still “highly significant.” The best time to turn off the lights will depend, to some extent, on your schedule and chronotype — which is your body’s natural preferences toward being more of a morning or evening person — says Fonken. But the bottom line is simple: The stretch of time when you sleep should be as dark as you can make it.
2. Over the past 12 months, companies repurchased another $960 billion in stock, about 65% of free cash flow
PKW Buyback ETF New Highs….1% Buyback tax has not slowed purchases.
3. Tesla Weighting Drives Consumer Discretionary Stocks to New Highs
4. Biggest Trump Trade Winner …GEO Group
5. Pre-Election… Tech Stocks Had Biggest 4-Week Outflow Ever
6. Will This Small Cap Rally Be the Real Deal? Or 4th False Start?
Mind the Hype: However, as Kantro points out below, at least in the case of small caps relative performance, there have been many false starts and bouts of premature speculation. While price does tend to move faster than fundamentals, the point he makes with this chart is that you need real fundamental follow-through if things are going to sustainably turnaround for this specific case, but also for wider bullish follow-through (and on that note, check out the bonus chart section…!)
7. Private Equity Unicorns ($1B Valuation) Have Grown 1100% Since 2014
Barrons The Morningstar PitchBook US Unicorn index tracks privately held, late-stage venture-backed U.S. companies with valuations of at least $1 billion. Evens observes the number of companies in it has grown 1,100% since 2014 as the public small-cap market has shrunk.
8. Private Market Valuation of SpaceX +170% Post Election
9. Communism Sucks Weekly …South vs. North Korea
Barrons By Andy Serwer In a memo Marks wrote in September, “Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics?”, he extolled the virtues of capitalism: “History is littered with command economies that didn’t succeed.…Eighty years ago, Korea was a single country. Then, following World War II, it was split in two….South Korea has operated as a capitalist democracy and North Korea as a communist dictatorship…[North Korea’s] GDP in purchasing power terms is estimated at $2,000 per person versus $50,000 in South Korea. North Korea’s citizens are described as impoverished, but at least it doesn’t have a border problem, since nobody’s trying to sneak in….I think it’s fair to say capitalism has won.”
10. This 1 Tweak to Your Behavior Makes You Instantly More Attractive, According to New Wharton Research
How you behave affects how attractive other people find you. New research uncovers a way to use that to your advantage. EXPERT OPINION BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM @ENTRYLEVELREBEL
Americans spend more than $420 billion a year trying to look more beautiful. And not just because they’re vain or looking for love. Fair or not, research shows “pretty privilege” is very real. Being perceived as attractive won’t just help you get a date, it will help you get ahead. Beautiful people are viewed as more trustworthy, smarter, and more capable just for looking the way they do. Which means you probably shouldn’t feel shallow for shelling out a stupid amount for skin-care products or gym memberships if that makes you feel more confident. But are there other, subtler ways to appear more attractive that don’t involve complicated beauty or fitness routines? A new study out of the Wharton School just revealed one, and I have to say, these are some of the nicest research findings I’ve come across in a while. They found that just by being kind, you can make yourself appear instantly more attractive to others.
Beautiful acts make you appear more beautiful. If you need convincing that this research is relevant for a business site, then just look at who conducted it. Natalia Konova, author of the study recently published in the British Journal of Social Psychology, got her PhD in marketing and is now doing research at a prestigious business school, Wharton. A stack of previous studies show that when people are attractive, we tend to ascribe other positive qualities, like intelligence and kindness, to them too. Together with her collaborators, Konova wanted to see if this so-called “halo effect” works the other way around as well. Does being a beautiful person make others see you as more physically beautiful as well? To find out, the team designed a series of experiments that tested how people’s behavior influenced others’ estimation of their attractiveness. For instance, would being told about someone’s kind and cooperative acts cause people to rate them as more beautiful? After running 10 different experiments on more than 4,000 people, the answer was clear and consistent. The more kindly you act, the more beautiful you appear. And the more consistently you are kind—the more kindness is seen as a fundamental part of your character—the more impact it has on how other people rate your looks. “Beautiful acts do, indeed, lead us to see people as more beautiful,” Kononov sums up on PsyPost. That’s true regardless of gender, and the effects weren’t tiny. “We thought prosociality would play a significant role, but we didn’t expect it to surpass traits like intelligence and humor,” Kononov continues. “It’s interesting because, while people often view humor and intelligence as highly appealing traits, kindness may actually have a stronger impact on how attractive someone appears.”
How to improve your attractiveness and your mental health You don’t need a PhD to interpret these findings. Whether you’re looking to impress a potential romantic partner, an investor, or a sales prospect, you should think about showing off your kindness along with your slick new hairstyle or wardrobe. (As a very welcome bonus, a ton of other research shows kindness makes you happier and more resilient too.) Human brains are packed with irrational quirks. Among them is that we clearly don’t judge inner and outer beauty entirely separately. When one is appealing, we’re more likely to have a positive impression of the other. Use that to your advantage. Kindness, unlike new creams or clothes, is free, instantly accessible, and psychologically great for you. It is also pretty much guaranteed to help you come across as more attractive too.
1. NYSE Composite of Stocks New Highs Best in 3 Years
2. Post-Election Solar Stock ETF New Lows
3. Post Election Marijuana ETF Approaching Lows
4. 2023-2024 2/3 of S&P Stocks Underperformed Index
Spilled Coffee Blog Eric Soda Look at the high number of S&P 500 stocks that are underperforming the S&P 500 index. In 2023 and midway through 2024, roughly 2/3 of stocks have underperformed.
TLT -10% correction going into election…Sitting on 200-day—third time since Summer.
2. 10-Year Bond Same Chart
3. Perplexity AI Telling me 10-Year Return on AGG Bond Index is 1.81%…Inflation Adjusted Negative.
4. Russell 2000 Small Cap +6% Pre-Market
Jack Ablin Cresset High-Quality US Small Caps Best Performers Immediately Post-Elections-High-quality US small caps (S&P 600) tend to be the best-performing equity sector in the days following a presidential election. The S&P 600 advanced in six of the last seven elections in the 90 days following elections, with 2008 the notable exception. Going back to 1996, the S&P 600 enjoyed a median 8.7 per cent return between Election Day and Inauguration Day, outpacing all major equity asset classes, although with a higher high and a lower low than their counterparts.
Winning the 2024 election can help Donald Trump in all four of his criminal cases.
Trump has vowed to fire the special prosecutor who brought two federal cases against him.
Being president-elect may also help him delay his state cases in Georgia and New York.
Donald Trump‘s presidential victory is also a win as he seeks to resolve his four criminal indictments. His win may largely free Trump from dealing with his criminal cases for the foreseeable future, experts told Business Insider. “Setting politics aside, there is a lot at stake legally for Trump” in the November 5 election, former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani predicted early in the day Tuesday. Here’s what will happen with Trump’s four criminal cases — two federal and two state — moving forward.
Donald Trump confers with his defense lawyer Todd Blanche in his hush-money trial before New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan. Jane Rosenberg/AP
The New York hush-money case Trump, the first US president convicted of a crime, has a November 26 Manhattan sentencing date on his calendar. He faces a sentencing range of as little as no jail and as much as four years in prison for his May conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up his $130,000 hush-money payment to the adult film actor Stormy Daniels. There is a chance the sentencing date will be delayed. Trump has promised to fight his indictment and conviction in New York’s appellate courts. He will likely argue that the evidence in the case includes acts that took place while serving in his official role as president — evidence that would be barred under July’s landmark US Supreme Court presidential immunity decision. Once he’s sentenced, experts say further appeals could keep a jail sentence on hold for years — though a jail sentence is highly unlikely, a quartet of former New York judges previously told BI.Winning the presidency could now push things back even further, as Trump could argue he’s too busy running the country to tend to his personal legal issues. Prior to the election results, Michael Dorf, a Cornell Law School professor, predicted that if Trump won, he would quickly file court papers to delay the sentencing until he is no longer president. Rahmani, the president and cofounder of West Coast Trial Lawyers, said that he does not believe Trump would be sentenced to jail “regardless of the outcome of the election.” “Trump winning makes it logistically impossible and a certainty that he won’t receive any time,” Rahmani said.
Trump’s federal cases Trump was indicted on two federal charges, both brought by special counsel Jack Smith, which would be eligible for presidential pardon, though a self-pardon has never been tried.Once president, Trump could ask his attorney general to fire Smith. He could also ask the courts to halt the federal prosecutions as there is long-standing Justice Department policy that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted while in office or attempt to pardon himself, said Dorf. Trump said on a conservative radio interview last month that if elected, he would fire Smith “within two seconds.” Justice Department regulations stipulate that a special counsel can only be fired for a good cause, but Trump could have his attorney general rescind that regulation, Dorf said. Firing Smith “is basically his right as president, though I would expect Smith to resign before then, just as a matter of course,” said Michel Paradis, an attorney who teaches national security and constitutional law at Columbia Law School. “The key thing to watch would be what Jack Smith does between Election Day and January 20 to potentially protect those prosecutions from interference,” Paradis said. “There’s not a lot he can do to make them ironclad since, at the end of the day, the president does control the Justice Department,” Paradis added,Paradis said that before Trump took the oath of office, Smith could try to stay both proceedings, on the grounds that sitting presidents cannot be prosecuted while in office.Trump has pleaded not guilty to both federal indictments. Asked for a comment, Steven Cheung, Trump’s campaign spokesman, told BI: “The Lyin’ Kamala Harris – Crooked Joe Biden Witch Hunts against President Trump have imploded just like their failed campaign, and should all be dismissed in light of the Supreme Court’s historic decision on immunity and other vital jurisprudence.”
A DOJ spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The federal election-interference caseEven if Trump had lost, Smith’s prosecution of Trump on charges he tried to overturn the 2020 election wouldn’t necessarily have barrelled ahead at full speed.Citizen Trump could have continued to challenge the election-interference case on the grounds of presidential immunity, experts said. In July, the US Supreme Court issued a landmark opinion that provides presidents with broad protection from being prosecuted for official acts while in office. The opinion also bars the use of official-act evidence in any prosecution of a former president, even on charges not relating to official acts.In August, Smith won a revised indictment that narrowed the charges against Trump to cover acts he took as a private, office-seeking citizen.
The federal classified documents case Another federal charge against Trump, alleging he failed to return classified government documents he took from the White House, was dismissed in July by the Trump-appointed US District Judge Aileen Cannon, who said Smith’s appointment violated the Constitution.The dismissal, which argues Congress should have approved Smith’s appointment, is now being appealed by Smith in the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals. Smith’s appeal revolves around what he calls “the long tradition of special-counsel appointments by Attorneys’ General.”
The Georgia election-interference case The election interference case in Georgia against Trump and 18 of his associates remains in legal limbo, thanks to the defendants’ efforts to get the Fulton County district attorney, Fani Willis, disqualified from the case.In May, a Georgia appeals court agreed to consider Trump’s bid to get Willis removed from the case.Attorneys for Trump and his codefendants argued that Willis had a conflict of interest in the case because she improperly benefited from a romantic relationship with Nathan Wade, the Atlanta lawyer she hired as a special prosecutor. After an evidentiary hearing earlier this year, a judge ruled that Willis and her office could remain on the case so long as Wade stepped aside, and Wade announced his resignation hours later.Trump has pleaded not guilty to the Georgia indictment.If Trump had lost the election, the case could have moved forward, though Trump would likely have moved to get it dismissed based on the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling. As the election winner, however, he can file papers with the Georgia court “saying you got to put this on hold for the time that I’m president because it’s just not consistent with federal supremacy to have a state prosecuting a sitting president,” Dorf, a constitutional law expert, told BI on Tuesday. “He doesn’t control the prosecutors, so you can’t fire them, and he can’t pardon himself because these are state crimes, so his only option really in the state cases is suspend them,” said Dorf.
November 6, 2026: This story was updated after the election was called for Donald Trump.
7. The French crypto whale looks to have made $47 million from his Trump bets
Marketwatch By Steve Goldstein The French national who ran four interrelated accounts on the crypto betting site Polymarket has profited handsomely from his bets on former President Donald Trump.The user’s combined profit was over $47 million, according to MarketWatch calculations of the accounts. The accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie — can be viewed in real time. The size of the user’s bets were so large that some had feared it was deliberate market manipulation. But the site’s own investigation — as well as an interview conducted by the Wall Street Journal — said the user simply had a strong belief that Trump would win and bet accordingly.
8. The Global Wellness Industry is Bigger than Sport and Pharma…$6.32 Trillion
Bloomberg By Sarah Rappaport The global wellness industry was worth $6.32 trillion in 2023, according to a new report from the Global Wellness Institute, a leading industry group. That’s 25% larger than it was in 2019, making it bigger than the sports and pharmaceutical industries. “Growth was even stronger than we predicted,” says Katherine Johnson, one of the authors of the Global Wellness Economy Monitor. She added that the wellness industry was boosted by the focus on health and well-being as a result of the pandemic. Research from the nonprofit argues that trends such as an aging population, chronic disease and an increased focus on mental health are helping drive growth.
9. As America’s Marijuana Use Grows, So Do the Harms -NY Times
The drug, legal in much of the country, is widely seen as nonaddictive and safe. For some users, these assumptions are dangerously wrong. By Megan TwoheyDanielle Ivory and Carson Kessler
The reporters are continuing to examine cannabis policies, use of the drug and the rise of the commercial market. If you have a story or information to share, please contact us here. In midcoast Maine, a pediatrician sees teenagers so dependent on cannabis that they consume it practically all day, every day — “a remarkably scary amount,” she said.
From Washington State to West Virginia, psychiatrists treat rising numbers of people whose use of the drug has brought on delusions, paranoia and other symptoms of psychosis.
And in the emergency departments of small community hospitals and large academic medical centers alike, physicians encounter patients with severe vomiting induced by the drug — a potentially devastating condition that once was rare but now, they say, is common. “Those patients look so sick,” said a doctor in Ohio, who described them “writhing around in pain.”
As marijuana legalization has accelerated across the country, doctors are contending with the effects of an explosion in the use of the drug and its intensity. A $33 billion industry has taken root, turning out an ever-expanding range of cannabis products so intoxicating they bear little resemblance to the marijuana available a generation ago. Tens of millions of Americans use the drug, for medical or recreational purposes — most of them without problems.
I’m usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won’t be many people who can write.
One of the strangest things you learn if you’re a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they’re worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren’t; writers know how many people need help writing.
The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it’s fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.
And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.
These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they’re not even halfway decent at writing.
Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn’t buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.
Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.
The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can’t write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can’t write, there will just be good writers and people who can’t write.
Is that so bad? Isn’t it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren’t many blacksmiths left, and it doesn’t seem to be a problem.
Yes, it’s bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there’s a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can’t make this point better than Leslie Lamport did: If you’re thinking without writing, you only think you’re thinking. So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.
This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people’s jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.
It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.
10. Why Grit and Willpower Fail and What to Do Instead -Psychology Today
Exploring the merits of healthy hedonism when it comes to wellness-Mike Rucker Ph.D. Key points
Treat exercise as a fun activity rather than a chore to foster consistency and enjoyment in wellness routines.
Shifting from restrictive diets to a positive relationship with food supports lasting health and satisfaction.
Over-quantifying wellness can harm enjoyment; too much tracking risks turning joy into obligation.
Enjoying wellness activities, aka “healthy hedonism,” is crucial for sustaining positive health behaviors.
Too often, aspirations in the pursuit of wellness are misguided. The advice takes on a perfectionistic angle, pushing individuals to believe that rigid standards are what is required to move the needle when it comes to improving health.
Recently, my medical provider just pushed out a newsletter advocating the 75 Hard program, an ultra-rigid self-improvement protocol with such a high bar that a quick Google search makes it clear it sets most participants up for failure. In my provider’s defense, their newsletters are put together well and generally well-researched. However, this particular one (I presume) was meant to be more inspirational in nature. Still, I felt compelled as a behavioral scientist to let them know that research indicates that wellness regimens that require this unforgiving level of adherence have a poor track record of long-term success. On the contrary, these types of programs come with the risk of actually harming both physiological and psychological well-being. Instead, what is emerging as one of the most useful components of any health intervention is enjoying the journey. Engaging in something you at least derive some pleasure from—sometimes referred to as healthy hedonism—appears to be a stronger predictor of sustained wellness behavior when compared to most other factors.
It Starts With Finding What Works for You When it comes to exercise, one size does not fit all. The good news is that the wellness landscape has significantly evolved over the past few decades to offer a diverse selection of approaches to fitness and movement, which means there is a high likelihood that there is a type of exercise or wellness practice that fits your preferences and lifestyle. As someone whose livelihood depends on helping health club operators design the optimal customer experience, it is not surprising I caught some flack when I wrote in my book The Fun Habit, “If you hate the gym, don’t go! It’s not for everybody. Instead, pick a physical activity with no commute, like bodyweight exercises in your own home or a nature hike in a nearby park.” But the assertion wasn’t meant to cause controversy. On the contrary, it was to highlight the fact that when people don’t find fun in what they’re doing, they tend to fail. When we start our health journey by honoring our unique preferences, we are able to redefine wellness as a source of joy. When we stack the deck in our favor by scheduling activities we are drawn to that are also helpful in supporting a healthy lifestyle, we don’t need to rely on willpower to push through and keep going when it comes to fitness. Instead, we turn exercise into something “we get to do” rather than something “we have to do.”
The Joy of Cooking Healthy hedonism isn’t just about fitness; it is also about embracing the enjoyment of food without the guilt often attached to indulgence. Weight loss programs that are restrictive are well-known to have a low success rate, yet this fact has done little to slow down the popularity of fad dieting. When we are able to move away from the idea of a “diet” and instead cultivate a healthier relationship with eating—free from restrictive diets and shame cycles—we generally have better long-term results. Learning to cook with nutrition-dense whole foods, appreciating the flavors and colors of nutritious meals, as well as the experience of eating well-crafted dishes, mitigates the hazards of processed foods and mindless eating.
Prioritizing Experience Over Metrics With so many health apps at our fingertips, it’s easy to reduce our wellness to numbers. I am a strong advocate of digital health, and when designed well, the right contextually relevant piece of consumer health technology can have a substantial positive impact on one’s health. However, I am also an opponent of overly quantifying health because of its negative impact on healthy hedonism. Dr. Jordan Etkin, a researcher from Duke University, has looked into this extensively. Her research highlights some of the unintended negative consequences of overfocusing on health metrics served up by technology, which can erode the inherent fun from an activity we once found enjoyable. For instance, while activity trackers might initially increase the frequency we partake in an activity because they focus our attention on the amount we are doing (such as walking or reading), this redirection of attention runs the risk of simultaneously reducing how much we intrinsically enjoy those activities. Over time, the result is that we are no longer drawn to the activity we once enjoyed, so we abandon it. Unfortunately, this phenomenon transcends physical activity into other areas of wellness. For instance, the popular meditation app Waking Up, created by Sam Harris, removed the prominence of its quantitative features when Sam recognized they were creating what he referred to as “spiritual materialism”—bringing the user’s focus outward instead of inward (where an inward focus is the app’s goal).
Healthy Hedonism at Its Best Across all domains, prioritizing presence allows us to savor our experience and connect with what we enjoy, whether it’s a workout, meal, or mindfulness session. In doing so, healthy hedonism steers our focus away from outcomes that are often ephemeral if they are too goal-oriented and instead keeps our focus on finding the joy in what we do and what we experience, nurturing a rewarding relationship with wellness—a basket of fun habits where the result is a long-term sustainable strategy toward maintaining our well-being.
From Dave Lutz Jones TradingAlamanacTrader notes November-January is the top 3-month period for DJIA and S&P 500 in all years and election years. In all years since 1950 DJIA is up 4.3% on average, up 71.6% of the time. S&P averages 4.4%, up 73.0% of the time. In election years, DJIA is up on average 4.3%, up 72.2% of the time while S&P is up on average 4.0%, up 72.2% of the time.
Bespoke Investors While yesterday ended up being the worst Halloween trading day since 2011, the S&P 500 still ended the month with a year-to-date gain of 19.6%. That’s good enough for 2024 to be the best Election Year through October since 1936!
Koylin shows, Estée Lauder has an incredible 10Y chart. The first seven years had a 26% CAGR, followed by three years of a (-44%) CAGR, and now the 10-year total return is close to dropping below 0%.-Zach Goldberg Jefferies
5. Mutual Fund Cash Levels at Historical Low Levels
From the Daily Chartbook Blog
6. Summary of 10-Year Yield Action
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright -10-year yields comprised of inflation expectations and real rates You can think of it as the sum of: + 10-year inflation expectations (what markets think annual inflation will average over the next 10 years) + 10-year real rate (a proxy for expected real economic growth) And the +60bps increase in the 10-year Treasury yield (chart below, black line) is driven by both the inflation (orange line) and real (green line) components.
Inflation expectations increasing on stronger economy, geopolitical tensions, and government spending 10-year inflation expectations are up +20bps (orange line) to 2.3%. There are a few reasons why: + Rising geopolitical tensions, which could increase energy inflation + With analysts projecting both Presidential candidates will increase government spending (especially in red wave/blue wave outcomes), expectations are rising that increased government demand will boost inflation + A stronger economy (next section) sees increased demand, adding to inflation Real rates rising on a stronger economy and Fed rate cuts reducing recession odds 10-year real rates are up +40bps (green line) to 1.95%. Again, for multiple reasons: + The Fed’s pivot to rate cuts reduced the risk of recession, meaning higher average economic growth over the next 10 years + Stronger-than-expected economic data over the last couple months (+254k jobs in September, Services PMI up to 17-month high, better consumer spending, etc) further reduced recession odds + Expectations of increased government spending (previous section) will add to economic growth
Bloomberg By Keith Naughton –Sticker shock is increasingly scaring off many would-be buyers. A recent survey by automotive researcher Edmunds.com found that almost half of American car shoppers expect to pay $35,000 or less for a new car. That makes sense because the average trade-in is six years old, which means those buyers last purchased a new car back when the average price was in the mid-30s. When they return to the showroom and discover they’ll have to pay almost $50,000, they’re walking away. The Edmunds survey found that 73% of consumers are holding off on buying a new car because of the cost.
9. Private Equity Shifts to Operational Efficiency of Portfolio Companies
Pitchbook Madeline Shi The PE industry is placing a greater emphasis on enhancing the value of portfolio companies by improving their operations—or at least, that’s the message many GPs are trying to convey to their LPs, industry participants tell me.
The concept of value creation has taken on new importance as high interest rates and a tepid exit environment have forced many firms to reinvent the strategies they use to generate returns.
“Many of them in the past were doing great by just doing ‘buy low, sell high,’ having the right strategy for portfolio companies, placing the right management and using financial leverage,” said Romain Bégramian, a managing partner at Paris-based advisory firm GP-Score. “But now they’re eager to improve operational value creation, or at least they are saying that to their investors.”
The strategy was spotlighted on Apollo‘s investor day in October, when the private equity titan lauded its ability to capture excess return in its PE investments through operational improvements at portfolio companies. That came in stark contrast to the broader PE industry’s strategy for the last decade which, by and large, leaned most often on multiple expansion and topline growth for returns.
David Sambur, the co-head of equity at Apollo, quipped: “What is the purpose of investing in private equity if it’s just levered beta on steroids?” As I reported this week in “Mid-market deals fare best in boosting profitability,” the ability to grow margins tends to set the best PE investments apart.
A difficult market for selling assets has also prompted GPs to pay more attention to operational matters—crafting ways to improve cash flow, widen margins and formulate detailed plans for long-term strategic growth.
But improving portfolio companies this way is no small feat. It is an intricate undertaking that impacts various aspects of a company, including its operations, technology and people.
Operational value creation could involve any number of projects, such as optimizing a legacy IT system or reducing surplus raw materials accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic. It could mean an exciting endeavor to implement cutting-edge technology—AI, for example—or involve making a tough decision to cut long-tenured employees.
Tiny Thoughts * Attention isn’t free. It’s the most valuable thing you spend. ** Flashy gets attention. Boring gets results. While most chase the views, the greats obsess over the basics. *** Don’t curse the obstacle; find a way around it. Elite special forces don’t complain about defenses—they adapt their tactics or create new ones. When a primary route is compromised, they don’t waste time lamenting. They quickly shift to another approach. Elite athletes don’t complain about defenses—they find the gap or create one. Face the obstacle. Find the gap. Or make one.
Insights * Agatha Christie on love: “It is a curious thought, but it is only when you see people looking ridiculous that you realize just how much you love them.” ** Alexander Graham Bell on looking for the opportunity: “When one door closes, another opens; but we often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door that we do not see the ones which open for us.” *** Sam Altman on avoiding regrets: “If you think you’re going to regret not doing something, you should probably do it. Regret is the worst, and most people regret far more things they didn’t do than things they did do.” https://fs.blog/
3. SMCI Hit $114 in March 2024…$29 Last..Down -75% from Highs
4. Blast from Covid Past Charts…PTON +46%
PTON +46% year to date…50 day thru 200 day to upside.
5. Blast from Covid Past …Carvana +400% Year to Date
50 week about to cross above 200 week to upside.
6. ASML Continues Correction…-40% from Highs
ASML Closes below 200 week moving average on long-term chart.
7. Car Sales in Europe
Dave Lutz at Jones Trading TIT FOR TAT China has told its automakers to halt big investment in European countries that support extra tariffs on Chinese-built electric vehicles (EVs), two people briefed about the matter said, a move likely to further divide Europe. The new European Union tariffs of up to 45.3 per cent came into effect on Oct 30 after a year-long anti-subsidy investigation into EV imports from China that divided the bloc and prompted retaliation from Beijing.
The move by the Chinese authorities to suspend some investment in Europe would suggest that the government, keen to avoid a sharp fall in EV exports to the key market, is seeking leverage in talks with the EU over an alternative to tariffs.
8. Alphabet Cash Flow Breakdown
9. Ukraine and Chinese Nationals 400k Encounters at Border
3. Tight Spreads Have Been Followed by Below Average Equity Returns
@Charlie Bilello Is this a good thing to see? Not exactly. In the past, very tight spreads have been followed by below-average equity and credit market returns over the next five years.
7. Yale Endowment Models Falters as VC Distributions Slow
Pitchbook Jessica Hamlin Yale University‘s endowment reported one of the weakest annual investment performances in the Ivy League. The endowment saw a 5.7% investment return for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024, as a lack of exits in its private market investments continues to batter the portfolio’s one-year returns. Yale’s FY return places it second from the bottom of performance at the Ivy League institutions that have reported so far this year, landing just above Princeton’s 3.9% gain. After riding the highs of private market dealmaking and valuations and returning a record 40.2% on its investments in 2021, the endowment has since—along with its peers—endured nearly three years of minimal distributions from its private market managers. In the 2022 and 2023 fiscal years, the now $47 billion endowment returned 1.8% and 0.8%, respectively. The endowment’s one-year return placed it behind peers like Columbia and Harvard Universities, which saw 11.5% and 9.6% gains for FY 2024, respectively. In VC, initial public offerings and large M&A transactions have been scarce during this period. In Q3 2024, VC fund distributions to LPs hit a rate nearly as low as the state of returns during the global financial crisis, according to the
8. Cash Out Re-Fi’s Go Negative…Pent Up Demand When Rates Move Lower
WSJ By Ryan Dezember More homeowners are borrowing against the rising value of their properties, suggesting that the worst of the remodeling slump has passed. Analysts and building-products executives are forecasting lower interest rates will fuel a rebound next year in spending on new kitchens, bathrooms and decks, reviving a reliable source of economic activity and stock-market gains.
1. 2022 Once a Generation Experience? Stock and Bonds Both Down Teens
2. Seasonality Favorable
3. S&P Has Not Had Two Down Days in a Row for 30 Sessions
The chart -Marketwatch Investor buy-the-dip mentality has been on show of late. The chart from Jason Goepfert at Sentimentrader shows how the S&P 500 has not had two down days in a row for 30 sessions. When the stock benchmark has the temerity to register a negative day investors push it up the next. “This is one of the longest streaks in its history, with the Nasdaq not far behind,” says Goepfert. Similar streaks of buy-the-dip activity preceded gains over the next 6-12 months almost without fail, he notes.
9. Poor sleep in early midlife years could mean higher dementia risk: Study
by Anna Kutz
Study compared baseline sleep data with MRI scans taken years later
Having more ‘poor sleep characteristics’ linked to dementia development
Daytime sleepiness, early morning wakeups are two characteristics
(NewsNation) — Those tossing and turning throughout their early midlife years may be more susceptible to dementia as they age, researchers found. The new study, published Wednesday in the journal Neurology, analyzed 589 people’s brain scans for a connection between sleep quality in people in their 40s and their brain age later in life. Researchers found a “dose-response relationship” between the two factors, with those who reported more poor sleep characteristics at 40 showing an advanced brain age in MRIs obtained 15 years later. Poor sleep characteristics include:
Bad sleep quality
Difficulty initiating sleep
Difficulty maintaining sleep
Early morning awakening
Daytime sleepiness
Patients who reported two or three characteristics had a brain age that was 1.6 years older than people who only reported one characteristic, which made up roughly 70% of the pool. However, those with more than three characteristics — around 8% — showed a brain age 2.6 years older than their counterparts. When will the next COVID, flu surge start? Experts weigh in “Sleep problems have been linked in previous research to poor thinking and memory skills later in life, putting people at higher risk for dementia,” study author Dr. Clémence Cavaillès told MedPage Today. “Our study which used brain scans to determine participants’ brain age, suggests that poor sleep is linked to nearly three years of additional brain aging as early as middle age.” “Advanced brain aging is associated with cognitive decline and Alzheimer’s-related atrophy patterns,” Cavaillès added. “Therefore, poor sleep may be an important target for early interventions aimed at preventing neurocognitive decline, even before amyloid and tau accumulation begins.” The researchers used CARDIA, a long-term federal study of cardiovascular disease, to obtain baseline data. As the characteristics were self-reported, study leads acknowledged that some people’s sleep data could have been misreported.
