1.Emerging Markets: EM equities are officially in bear-market territory.
A 20% decline for the market, representing the typical definition of a bear market for an asset, hasn’t occurred in years (see chart below), according to Goldman, and may be halting for investors that have grown accustomed to this current phase of mostly levitating markets.
A stock-market bear signal is at a more-than-4-decade high, says Goldman
Aug 31, 2018
Below we show our decile analysis of S&P 500 gains in August. To construct these analyses, we show how each 10% bucket of stocks in the S&P 500 (50 per bucket) by a given metric performs. In this example, we’ve broken the S&P 500 into deciles based on their percentage change in the first 7 months of the year through July. Over the course of August, performance in the other 7 months was highly correlated to performance this month. As shown in the chart below, the 50 best performing stocks YTD through July were up almost 5% in August, with the 2nd through 5th deciles also performing quite well. The bottom half of the market in terms of YTD performance through July generally didn’t do as well in August. That was most true for the 50 stocks that performed the worst through July, which dropped on average 2.2% in the month of August. Owning winners is often derided by contrarians as a way to underperform, but the decile analysis below is one example of momentum begetting more momentum in financial markets.
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
Posted by lplresearch
It took nearly seven months, but the S&P 500 Index finally closed at a new all-time high on Friday. Many clues along the way suggested new highs could eventually come, like strong overall market breadth and excellent earnings growth. Still, the big question now is, what happens next?
“Investors have been patiently waiting for new highs in the S&P 500, even while small caps and technology have been making new highs for months now. Here’s the good news: When the S&P 500 has gone at least six months without a new high, the index has been higher a year after the next new high in 17 out of the past 18 instances, going back to 1950,” explained Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, long waits between new highs tend to foreshadow strong outperformance in the subsequent year.