Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 28, 2024

1. Hedge Funds Underweight U.S. Stocks

HFs vs. US equities. “Hedge funds remain significantly U/W US equities vs the market benchmark.”

Goldman Sachs via Zero Hedge


2. History of S&P After 6 Straight Weeks of Positive Returns

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


3. Total Crypto Market Cap $2 Trillion…Equal to GOOGL…Smaller than MSFT and AAPL

https://www.allstarcharts.com/2024-02-28/crypto-market-cap-hits-2-trillion-dollars


4. Gold vs. Bitcoin Market Cap

Investing in the Web Blog

Cryptocurrency Statistics (2024)


5. Not All Crypto is Created Equal -Bespoke

In the crypto space, Bitcoin and Ethereum are considered two of the most credible with market caps of $1.3 trillion and $300 billion, respectively. While there is a tendency for many investors/speculators to lump the two together as highly correlated to each other, that has been far from the case over the last several months. Until mid-summer, Bitcoin and Ethereum followed similar paths, but since then, the paths of the two have diverged. The chart below shows the YTD performance of both cryptos and as recently as July 15th, both were up an identical 50% YTD. Since then, though, Ethereum has given up most of its YTD gains while Bitcoin has added modestly to its rally

Given the divergence between the two, the ratio of bitcoin to Ethereum has widened to just under 27 which is a level not seen in more than three years. As shown in the chart below, this is still half of where the ratio was in early 2021 (it was even higher than that in 2000), but in the short term, Bitcoin has become the “Mag 1” of the crypto space.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/not-all-crypto-is-created-equal


6. The Bottom 50% of Americans Making Gains

From Eric Soda – Spilled Coffee Blog

https://www.spilledcoffee.co/


7. Tesla’s Energy Business is Booming


8. Why countries are seeking to build “sovereign AI”-Sherwood

Nvidia’s CEO says nations can’t afford to miss out on this technology, but an AI created and controlled by the government could be dangerous.Jon Keegan The King of Denmark just “plugged in” his country’s very own supercomputer, with NvidiaNVDA $141.06 (0.75%) CEO Jensen Huang by his side. 
The country’s new AI system is named “Gefion,” after a goddess from Danish mythology, and it’s powered by 1,528 of Nvidia’s popular H100 GPUs. 
Denmark’s new supercomputer is an example of what Nvidia calls “sovereign AI,” which the company defines as “a nation’s capabilities to produce artificial intelligence using its own infrastructure, data, workforce and business networks.” But for countries seeking to rewrite history and control the information its citizens access, the movement toward sovereign AI comes with serious concerns.
Huang said at the announcement:
“What country can afford not to have this infrastructure, just as every country realizes you have communications, transportation, healthcare, fundamental infrastructures — the fundamental infrastructure of any country surely must be the manufacturer of intelligence.”  
Selling its powerful AI GPUs and computing infrastructure to governments is a lucrative new business for the company. Nvidia and its partners have already sold AI systems to India, Japan, France, Italy, New Zealand, and Switzerland, as well as countries with histories of human rights abuses like Singapore and UAE. In Nvidia’s Q2 2025 earnings press release, Huang cited sovereign AI as one of multiple future “multibillion-dollar vertical markets.”
Nvidia’s pitch to governments argues that building their own AI systems is a strategic move, helping secure their own supply of advanced-computing resources for its scientists, researchers, and domestic industries. 

https://sherwood.news/tech/why-countries-are-seeking-to-build-sovereign-ai/?utm_source=chartr&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=chartr_20241027


9. 2025 Federal Tax Brackets


10. A 3-Step Process to Break a Cycle of Frustration, Stress, and Fighting at Work-HBR

by Annie McKee

Summary.   When we have a conflict at work, most of us blame the other person — an incompetent boss, a passive aggressive colleague, or the resource-hoarding peer in another department. But having fewer disagreements at work starts with working on yourself…more

Bring to mind a conflict at work, and you’ll probably have the perpetrator in mind: your incompetent boss, that passive-aggressive colleague, or the resource-hoarding peer in another department. We spend an inordinate amount of time complaining about these people, avoiding them, and fighting with them. But if you want to manage conflict in the workplace, you can’t start with someone else. Usually there isn’t just one culprit, and if you want less fighting and a more enjoyable, productive workplace, you have to understand your own role in it and what you can do to break a vicious cycle that starts with frustration and stress and ends with workplace wars.

Constant challenges breed frustration. A healthy dose of frustration can be good, leading to determination and creativity. Unfortunately, instead of the occasional obstacle at work, we are often buried in an avalanche of problems. We don’t have the resources we need to do our job, and the goalposts keep moving. We blame the relentless, do-more-with-less nature of our shortsighted, quarterly-results-driven business climate for our frustration, or we pin responsibility on unending change or corporate culture. Whatever the reason, many of us are chronically frustrated at work.

Toxic emotions are stressful. Chronic frustration often morphs into fear and anger — “destructive emotions” that serve as an early warning system that we’re in danger. When the alarm rings, our bodies go into high alert, adrenaline and hormones course through our veins, muscles tighten so that we can move quickly, hands sweat, and breathing and heart rates speed up. This would all be well and good if it happened infrequently and saved us from actual danger. Unfortunately, frustration, low-grade fear, irritation, and even rage are familiar companions at work. Many of us are hyperalert all the time. We don’t thrive physically, we are disengaged and unhappy at work, and our brains don’t work properly.

Stress feeds conflict — and conflict breeds anger, resentment, and unhappiness. It’s easy to fool ourselves into thinking that stress isn’t all bad. In fact, when we’re under pressure, we may perform well on routine, well-rehearsed tasks. But when we’re under chronic stress, our complex thinking, reasoning, and social skills all suffer. Our ability to process and use information is compromised, as is our judgment. We have more difficulty with being flexible or open to new ideas, and we start seeing things in simplistic ways. We overreact to minor irritants, and everything and everyone starts looking like a threat. In this state, we are more likely to cause problems than solve them — especially in relationships.
This is when the vicious cycle becomes an endless loop. We don’t think straight. We pick fights. People aren’t pleased, and they let us know. Stress escalates, and our reasoning and behavior suffer even more. We lash out, hide out, or opt out.

A Three-Step Process to Interrupt the Vicious Cycle
If you want to break this cycle and have fewer destructive conflicts at work, the first step is to become more aware of your feelings and reactions to pressure and stress. The second step is to consciously manage your emotions, and the third is to start seeing people as people, not as threats.

Step 1: Develop self-awareness. To interrupt the frustration-stress-conflict cycle, you need to begin by recognizing what causes you to feel thwarted, scared, or threatened and what drives you to the battleground. This sounds easy, but even well-intentioned people typically put self-reflection last on the list — there just aren’t enough hours in the day. Telling yourself you don’t have time or are not inclined to “work on yourself” will keep you stuck in a bunker mentality at work. Instead, make time and tap into curiosity and courage to try to figure out what kinds of situations (and people) send you into the stratosphere. The more you know about your triggers, the better you can control your emotions.

Step 2: Employ emotional self-control. Once you’re aware of the emotions that are driving your behavior, you can employ another important emotional intelligence competency: emotional self-control. This is what enables us to check and channel our emotions so that we don’t get stuck in a permanent amygdala hijack. We can manage negative feelings, see reality through a clear lens, and stop lashing out when we feel threatened.

Step 3: Build friendships at work. To minimize stress and conflict at work, we need to replace “I, me, mine” with “We, us, ours.” We need to stop seeing each other in terms of what we can get, and replace it with what we can give. This shift would result in less stress and fewer negative emotions. It would also lead to warmer, friendlier relationships — something most people need and want at work.
Developing self-awareness, increasing your emotional self-control, and recharging relationships at work takes commitment, but you don’t have to remake yourself to improve how you deal with strife. Here are a few practical tips to help you with the above steps:

Build mindfulness practices into your daily life. Mindfulness practices like yoga, meditation, deep breathing, and taking a solitary walk are invaluable when it comes to developing self-awareness, learning to manage our emotions, and short-circuiting the stress response. The research is mounting by the day: Even a few minutes of slow, deep breathing several times a day helps us to clear our minds, calm down, and choose our actions more consciously.

Schedule time for self-reflection. Like mindfulness practices, self-reflection helps tremendously with self-awareness and self-control. It’s hard to find time to think about our viewpoints and actions in our always-on world, however. So start small. You might, for example, reserve 20 minutes at the end of each week to reflect on what went well and what didn’t. But remember: Don’t fall prey to the “beat myself up” trap and spend this time lamenting what you didn’t get done or what you should’ve done differently. All that does is engender more stress.

Lean in to your natural empathy and compassion. Concern for others, empathy, and compassion help us to survive and thrive. Like self-reflection, this muscle may not be one you use often at work. But you can get better pretty quickly if you make a point to ask yourself questions that help you understand others’ points of view. Try these:

  • What is he thinking and feeling about the situation?
  • How is she different from me? How are we the same?
  • What can I do to make him feel better about this situation and about me?

As you ask yourself these questions, remember that we all have a story — loves, sorrows, and joys in life and at work. And chances are that while another person’s story might seem different from yours, our human experiences are remarkably similar. As tempting as it is to blame others for our strife-ridden companies, the best way to make work a more enjoyable, productive experience is to lean in to our natural empathy, learn to care for ourselves and others, and take responsibility for our feelings and actions.

Read more on Stress management or related topics Managing conflicts, Emotional intelligence and Mindfulness

https://hbr.org/2017/07/a-3-step-process-to-break-a-cycle-of-frustration-stress-and-fighting-at-work?tpcc=orgsocial_edit&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 24, 2024

1. Stock Factor Rotation Since July 10th

@Charlie Bilello
Within the US the market, we’ve seen a factor rotation since July 10 with Small Caps ($VBR) outperforming Large Caps ($SPY) and Value ($IWD) outperforming Growth ($IWF).

This is a reversal from the prior secular trend which saw Large Cap outperformance hit its highest level since October 1999 and Growth stock outperformance hit its highest level since March 2000.


2. Sector Performance Post Rate Cuts

Advisor Perspectives -by Tony DeSpirito of BlackRock

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/24/interest-rates-fall-new-stock-opportunities-arise


3. UPS was at $180 in 2023..Earnings Beat Today


4. KKR Assets (AUM) Jump 19% Year Over Year

KKR chart straight up to right


5. Southern state could become ‘white gold’ boom town after $150 billion lithium reserve discovery

By NIKKI MAIN SCIENCE REPORTER FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Arkansas is sitting on a $150 billion ‘hidden treasure’ trove of lithium that could meet the global demand for EV batteries by 2030.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) found between five and 19 million tons of lithium in the Smackover Formation, which is nine times the amount needed to meet the ongoing electric vehicle demand  in the US by the end of the decade.
The metal is a necessary component for batteries used in EVs and can be extracted from the brine wastewater from the same mines that produce oil and gas.
Lithium is a critical mineral for the energy transition, and the potential for increased U.S. production to replace imports has implications for employment, manufacturing and supply-chain resilience,’ USGS Director David Applegate said.
‘This study illustrates the value of science in addressing economically important issues.’
Several companies, including Exxon Mobil, have already begun drilling exploratory wells to extract the lithium from 4,000 feet below ground.
The global demand for lithium has drastically increased in recent years as countries move to transition from using fossil fuels in gas-powered cars to electric and hybrid vehicles.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13988211/Arkansas-lithium-reserve-solve-EV-battery-demand.html


6. The U.S. Growth Since 2019 vs. G-7

Irrelevant Investor Blog-Michael Batnick

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/animal-spirits-the-1990s-really-were-better


7. Why are We Leading Our Peers? Morningbrew  We Work Harder

Why the US economy is leading its peers
Anna Kim
While Italians scoff at Americano slop and Japanese people cringe at stateside 7-Eleven hot dogs, Americans are having the last laugh when it comes to economic prosperity.
The US economy is doing better than that of any other member of the rich countries club (aka the Group of Seven), the International Monetary Fund said yesterday. The global economy watcher upgraded its prediction for US GDP growth to 2.8% this year, compared to the 0.9% average for all G7 countries.
Economists attribute the strength of the US economy to rising inflation-adjusted wages and strong consumer spending, all fueled by longtime investment. Experts say it boils down to Americans being more efficient workers.

Americans get more done

US workers are more productive than their counterparts in Europe and Japan, but probably not because they take shorter vacations or drink less wine at lunch. US companies have more money to invest in innovation due to lower energy prices and strong government support.
Workers benefit from updated machinery and software to operate more efficiently. According to The Economist:

  • The average US worker will churn out $171,000 of goods and services this year, compared to $120,000 for a European employee and $96,000 for one in Japan.
  • Americans’ hourly productivity has risen 70% since 1990, compared to just 29% in Europe and 25% in Japan, according to Conference Board data analyzed by The Economist.

The US owes its economic powerhouse status to a robust business environment, in which workers switch jobs often and new companies pop up, according to The Economist. These conditions give rise to its dominant tech sector and other lucrative industries that create economic value.
But…productivity growth is declining worldwide, including in the US, which is bad news for global economic growth. AI might reverse this trend. Some economists are optimistic that it will boost productivity and turbocharge economies, but the IMF cites experts who say that governments need to do more to promote a competitive environment and support smaller businesses.—SK 

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


8. U.S. Home Equity is $35 Trillion

St. Louis Fed noted, Americans have more than $35 trillion in home equity, which is up by 81% from the end of 2019.


9. Rates Rising Again…Mortgage applications fell 17% last week. That’s the largest weekly drop since April 2020.

Source: Liz Ann Sonders


10. ‘Silent Phase’ Of Alzheimer’s Begins Decades Before Symptoms, NIH Study Suggests

BY TYLER DURDEN ZEROHEDGE

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Recent advancements in Alzheimer’s disease research show a promising shift in the understanding of the memory-robbing disorder, suggesting that crucial brain changes can occur decades before symptoms manifest.
​A recent study has identified a two-phase progression of Alzheimer’s, highlighting a silent phase marked by subtle brain changes long before cognitive decline becomes apparent.​
Alzheimer’s disease has a long pre-symptomatic period, with related changes taking place in the brain “10, 15, even 20 years before the onset of memory and thinking symptoms,” Igor Camargo Fontana, Alzheimer’s Association director of scientific conference programming, told The Epoch Times.
This research could also open new avenues for earlier detection and targeted treatments.
“One of the challenges to diagnosing and treating Alzheimer’s is that much of the damage to the brain happens well before symptoms occur,” Dr. Richard J. Hodes, director of the NIH National Institute on Aging, said in a statement. “The ability to detect these early changes means that, for the first time, we can see what is happening to a person’s brain during the earliest periods of the disease.”

The Early Phase: Silent and Gradual Damage

A recent National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded study provided new insights into the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, potentially paving the way for earlier detection and treatment options.
The findings, published in Nature Neuroscience, say that Alzheimer’s affects the brain in two distinct phases: an early, silent phase characterized by subtle changes, and a later, symptomatic phase marked by widespread damage and the accumulation of amyloid plaques, long associated with the disorder.
Researchers have found that the initial phase of Alzheimer’s is insidious, unfolding slowly over time and occurring well before noticeable memory problems arise. During this phase, a gradual buildup of beta-amyloid plaques and tangles—hallmarks of Alzheimer’s—can be observed.
This early “quiet” phase is marked by subtle changes in brain cells, particularly inhibitory neurons, which may be among the first to become vulnerable, disrupting communication between brain cells, according to Fontana. These cells are mostly located in a brain region that is associated with memory, vision, and language.
The research specifically identified the death of somatostatin inhibitory neurons, a group previously underestimated in their role within Alzheimer’s pathology. This finding challenges the prevailing notion that the disease primarily harms excitatory neurons responsible for facilitating brain cell communication.

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/silent-phase-alzheimers-begins-decades-symptoms-nih-study-suggests

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 22, 2024

1. Valuation Without Mag 7…19.6X Forward P/E

From Irrelevant Investor Blog-Michael Batnick

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-strength-leads-to-strength


2. Since 1981 Tax Revenue Up 4.9x -Debt Up 44x

I would check these numbers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/end-us-economic-and-military-empire-rise-gold


3. Investors Hedging Run Away Spending with Gold–Gold Miners GDX Chart

50-week moving average thru 200-week to upside

2011-2012 Chart Hit $60


 

4. More Speculative Junior Miners Same Chart

50 week moving average thru 200 week moving average to upside

GDXJ Hit $160 in 2011-2012 Era


5. Silver +41.5% YTD-Chart

SLV breaks above 2020-2021 levels….Next resistance 2012 levels.


6. Record Debt, Gold New Highs…But U.S. Dollar Still Going Higher

Renmac Dollar Overbought Chart


7. ASML Shows Chip Sector Still Cyclical Business….$8B Revenue Quarter in 2023 to $2B 2024

https://sherwood.news/business/asml-ai-chip-trade-semiconductors-slowdown/?utm_source=chartr&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=chartr_20241020


8. What’s at Stake in a Strained Microsoft-OpenAI Partnership- DEALBOOK NEWSLETTER

Andrew Sorkin
But tension is building in what Altman once called “the best bromance in tech.” 

Microsoft began to get worried after last year’s upheaval at OpenAI and moved to hedge its A.I. bets. That included spending at least $650 million to hire most employees from Inflection, an OpenAI rival led by the former Google executive Mustafa Suleyman. At Microsoft, Suleyman’s role includes building tech that could supplant OpenAI’s products, which has riled some of the ChatGPT parent’s executives.
From The Times:

Some OpenAI staff recently complained that Mr. Suleyman yelled at an OpenAI employee during a recent video call because he thought the start-up was not delivering new technology to Microsoft as quickly as it should, according to two people familiar with the call. Others took umbrage after Microsoft’s engineers downloaded important OpenAI software without following the protocols the two companies had agreed on, the people said.

OpenAI executives are also complaining that Microsoft isn’t providing enough computing power. The start-up has already negotiated their to let it sign a $10 billion contract with Oracle for additional compute, and secured reductions in how much Microsoft charges for its cloud resources.

Both sides are working with investment banks — Goldman Sachs for OpenAI and Morgan Stanley for Microsoft — over how much of a stake the tech giant should have when the A.I. start-up becomes a for-profit entity, according to The Wall Street Journal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/18/business/dealbook/microsoft-openai-ai.html


9. Top 10 States with Highest Average Retirement Savings Per Person

Visual Capitalist

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/emp01-ranked-the-top-10-states-by-average-retirement-savings/


10. Elite Sports and Business-Farnam Street

Rob Fraser discusses the mindset required to excel in elite sports and business. 

“Sometimes you don’t push as hard because there’s no personal mission there. There’s no reason to push. You don’t necessarily take that mindset into everything you do, but it’s really helpful for those larger goals. And it’s similar with business; I think success in any large goal comes down to your ability to endure over the long term. Perseverance. Resilience. People always talk about hacks and quick wins and “How can you shorten the timeline?” And ultimately I think that leads to maybe a quick win here and there, but not longevity. In business and in sport, careers are built on longevity, and that really comes down to a mindset because along that path on anything worth doing, there are just so many ups and downs and sideways and there’s just so much going on.”

— Listen now on Apple, Spotify, or watch on YouTube. (Members have access to the transcript and my reflections.) https://fs.blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 21, 2024

1. It’s Not 1999-2000


2. What Sectors are Above their Pre-2022 Bear Market Highs?

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-strength-leads-to-strength


3. Trading Culture is Rampant…HOOD Rolling Out New Trading Tools to Retail

Robinhood +175% in 12 Months as Retail Traders Up Options Trading


 

4. Uranium Made Double Bottom Now a Tick from New Highs


5. Uranium Miners Chart Similar Picture


6. Portfolio Performance with Rates Falling…It Depends

www.capitalgroup.com


7. Emerging Market ETF Chart

50 week thru 200 week moving average to the upside on long-term chart


8. Saudi Arabia Dream City Neom ‘uses one fifth of world’s steel’

By Andrew Hammond

Neom could be the world’s largest customer for construction materials for several decades, according to an official

  • Largest construction customer
  •  ‘5% of global logistics market’
  • Market driver for decades

The Neom giga-project in Saudi Arabia is currently using one fifth of all the steel produced in the world, an official said on Monday. 
The futuristic city will be the world’s largest customer for construction materials for several decades, said Manar Al Moneef, Neom’s chief investment officer.
She told the Global Logistics Forum in the King Abdullah Financial District in Riyadh that the $500 billion project would be one of the world’s leading drivers of the global logistics sector in coming years. 
“Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next decade. If you look at our demand in logistics it’s 5 percent of the global logistics market,” she told the forum, in rare public comments. 
Neom’s demand for steel meant “we are 20 percent of the global steel market. If you look at our demand in elevators, cement and so on … put simply, Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next few decades,” Al Moneef said. 
Neom, located in the far northwest of Saudi Arabia, is the jewel in the crown of Saudi Arabia’s economic development projects, which have been valued at more than $1.25 trillion. 
However, some projects have slowed down as Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) faces funding pressures caused by lower oil prices and pressure to funnel cash towards projects in Riyadh before the World Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup, both taking place in the Saudi capital.

 Neom ‘uses one fifth of world’s steel’ | AGBI


9. U.S. Set to Spend $1.7 Trillion Over 30 Years to Revamp Nuclear Arsenal

NY Times By W.J. Hennigan 
With Russia at war, China escalating regional disputes and nations like North Korea and Iran expanding their nuclear programs, the United States is set to spend an estimated $1.7 trillion over 30 years to revamp its own arsenal.  The spending spree, which the government began planning in 2010, is underway in at least 23 states — nearly 50 if you include subcontractors. It follows a decades-long freeze on designing, building or testing new nuclear weapons. Along with the subs, the military is paying for a new fleet of bomber jets, land-based missiles and thermonuclear warheads. Tally all that spending, and the bill comes to almost $57 billion a year, or $108,000 per minute for three decades.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/10/opinion/nuclear-weapons-us-price.html


10. Every Leader Needs to Navigate These 7 Tensions -HBR

by Jennifer Jordan,Michael Wade, and Elizabeth Teracino
In recent years, articles have claimed that old-style command-and-control leadership is “out” and a new way of leading is “in.” Instead of telling people what to do, leaders should ask them open-ended questions. Instead of sticking exactly to plans, they should adjust goals as new information emerges. Instead of working from the gut, a leader should rely on data to make decisions. And so forth.
Let’s call this old-fashioned leadership model traditional and the new one emerging. Here’s the challenge: in the current environment, most executives need to be good at both styles to succeed. That is, any leader who relies solely on positional authority will run into trouble; business, technology, and workforce expectations are changing much too quickly for that approach to be sustainable. But at the same time, any leader who fails to strive for perfection, who never tells and only listens, and who shares but never holds power, will also struggle to be effective.
In surveys and interviews with hundreds of leaders worldwide, we uncovered seven core tensions between the traditional and emerging leadership approaches. Those tensions create significant stress for leaders, as they are often unsure of what competencies, skills, and behaviors to exercise in a particular context. In this article, we describe the tensions, outline the dangers in ignoring them, and suggest coping strategies for balancing the two approaches.
Tension 1: The Expert vs. the Learner
Traditionally, leaders built their careers by developing deep expertise of some kind and demonstrating increasing levels of competence as they moved up the corporate ladder. Organizations assumed that they would bring superior insight to the challenge at hand. In the emerging approach, leaders must accept that their specialized expertise is limited (in some cases obsolete) and be open to learning from others. This is especially true when it comes to digital knowledge, as many of the leaders who are tasked with leading digital transformations are not digital natives themselves. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of making bad or inappropriate decisions.
Tim Westergren, co-founder of streaming radio platform Pandora, was able to blend the two. He believed that a key to his success was combining his deep knowledge of the industry with an openness to learning from others about new trends and technologies. Prior to Pandora, Westergren worked as a record producer and composer for two decades, under the name Pandora Media, which was all about music discovery — this fed Pandora’s “music genome” algorithm, one of the keys to Pandora’s success. But then when the company shifted to a freemium business model, he was in new territory and had to rely heavily on insights and knowledgefrom employees and customers.
Tension 2: The Constant vs. the Adaptor
The traditional approach to leadership values decision-making conviction and consistency; good leaders “stick to their guns.”  By contrast, the emerging approach recognizes that in fast-changing environments, decisions often need to be reversed or adapted, and that changing course in response to new information is a strength, not a weakness. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of seeming too rigid, on the one hand, or too wishy-washy on the other.
Early in his career, Jim Whitehurst, CEO of open-source software company Red Hat, decided to release a product that wasn’t completely open source, which was against company policy. Not surprisingly, the product failed. Fortunately, he had developed a reputation for providing a secure, solid base for his team. Consequently, when he openly admitted his error, employees and colleagues were willing to quickly move forward from the mistake.
Tension 3: The Tactician vs. the Visionary
The traditional approach to leadership calls for operational clarity and well-defined plans. The emerging approach suggests that leaders require a clear vision for where they want to go, without necessarily needing a concrete roadmap for how to get there. If this tension isn’t managed wisely, leaders run the risk of providing no “north star” for their team members. On the other hand, if they are not grounded in reality, they may serve up lofty, unrealistic, or intangible goals.
Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis AG, believes that predictive analytics and artificial intelligence will revolutionize the healthcare industry. Therefore, he invested significantly in AI and challenged different parts of the organization to find their own way to deploy the technology. Most teams welcomed the initiative, but Narasimhan noticed that they often struggled to link AI to their daily work. Thus, he paid close attention to the day-to-day processes needed to allow these “bigger, bolder moves” to achieve results for the pharmaceutical giant. He infused predictive analytics and artificial intelligence into the operational heart of the company itself, as a tangible first goal, and launched a tool enabling real-time viewing of all 500 clinical trials around the world, which can be expanded into other areas such as manufacturing and regulatory affairs.
Tension 4: The Teller vs. the Listener
The traditional approach to leadership calls for leaders to tell others what to do and how to do it. The emerging approach values listening carefully to others before deciding. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of missing important information that resides in the team members surrounding them. Conversely, if a leader refrains from providing their viewpoint, they miss the chance to apply their own valuable knowledge.
Angela Ahrendts, former CEO of Burberry, entered her role with a clear point of view: that the fashion brand needed to become relevant to a generation of Millennial shoppers in order to thrive. But when it came to specific operational decisions, she sourced ideas and opinions from a wide range of people, leading to an almost doubling of Burberry’s operating profits during her tenure.
Tension 5: The Power Holder vs. the Power Sharer
The traditional approach suggests that leaders must lead from the top, make decisions, and take actions independently. In contrast, the emerging approach values empowering others to achieve goals. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of alienating and marginalizing promising talent. Alternatively, they may undermine their own authority by sharing power too broadly.
Marco Bizzarri, CEO of Gucci, held the power endowed to his position by managing the financial part of the business while giving Gucci’s creative director, Alessandro Michele, the space to focus solely on what he does best — the design. But he also knew when to empower, creating a shadow board of Millennial employees to advise the fashion behemoth’s executive team.
Tension 6: The Intuitionist vs. the Analyst
The traditional approach suggests that leaders build up an “expert gut” to make intuitive decisions. By contrast, the emerging approach says that leaders should base decisions largely on data. If this tension is not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of making decisions based on outdated and biased heuristics. Or, on the other hand, they risk ignoring their inner compass, which might provide valuable insights from past experience.
Barbara Coppola, CDO of IKEA, advocates for the importance of data-driven decision-making and data standardization globally, while giving regions the latitude to innovate to suit their immediate markets. Because data and certain metrics are standardized across regions, these can be benchmarked easily against all other regions, as well as globally. The benchmarking standardization tactic gives an overall picture from which intuitive hunches about which regional innovations could be experimentally expanded or leveraged globally.
Tension 7: The Perfectionist vs. the Accelerator
The traditional approach asserts that leaders should take the time to deliver a perfectly finished product. The emerging approach calls for leaders to acknowledge that doing something quickly, and failing fast, is often more important than doing it perfectly. If not managed wisely, leaders run the risk of delaying the launch of key initiatives or directives due to a fear of imperfection. Conversely, bringing initiatives forward without ample consideration and testing can lead to embarrassing results.
Charlotte Lindsey-Curtet, director of digital transformation and data at the International Red Cross, strives to maintain an impeccable, privacy-by-design approach to protecting the identity of refugees. However, she also explores ways to connect refugee families via new technologies, like biometrics, as speed is a critical factor in family reunification.
What can executives do to navigate these tensions?
Leaders improve their effectiveness not by consistently emphasizing one approach over the other, but by developing the ambidexterity to move between the two as the context requires. The difficulty of achieving this level of cognitive and behavioral ambidexterity should not be underestimated — but it can be achieved, with focused efforts.
Self-awareness. Understanding one’s natural tendencies is an important first step. Where is your comfort zone? What’s your default position? In the digital world, leaders can gain insight about themselves from real-time feedback apps or from online forums where members of their community post comments and provide assessments.
Learn, adapt, practice. Once leaders know their natural tendencies, they can work to develop a portfolio of micro-behaviors to address the tensions that they don’t manage well. This process can be enhanced by formal coaching. That may come in the form of human coaching, or through a coaching bot, like Jolt.ai.
Contextual awareness. Becoming a more effective leader means not only expanding one’s current leadership approach to incorporate new behaviors but knowing when to focus more on one side of the tension or the other. This requires both contextual awareness and emotional intelligence — sourced directly from the leader or from the surrounding social environment. Through programs like reverse mentoring, leaders can rely on the diversity embedded within their workforces to give them advice on when it is appropriate to favor one approach more than the other.
Read more on Leadership and managing people or related topics Managing yourself and Decision making and problem solving

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 17, 2024

1. Insider Buying at Lows

DC Lite Blog Insiders
“You know who’s not chasing stocks here? Insiders. Corporate executives among S&P 500 firms have some of the least open market purchases in 13 years.”

@jasongoepfert


2. Current Expansion Still Early?

Torston Slok Apollo


3. Bond allocations see record drop amid jump in investor optimism, BofA survey finds

By Christine Idzelis
Investor optimism has jumped the most since June 2020 on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-cut cycle, expectations for a soft landing for the U.S. economy and China’s stimulus, according to BofA Global Research’s global fund manager survey in October.Allocations to stocks surged, while bonds saw a record drop in allocations, BofA said in an Oct. 15 note on the survey. Cash levels fell to 3.9% from 4.2%, the survey found.

While BofA’s bull and bear indicator indicates “froth” is rising, it’s “not yet the big ‘sell signal,’” according to the report. The fund manager survey found bond allocations dropped to 15% underweight from 11% overweight, while global equity allocations jumped to 31% overweight.
 
 https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-take-a-pause-after-sell-off/card/bond-allocations-see-record-drop-amid-jump-in-investor-optimism-bofa-survey-finds-Z0PP2n9PSHN9KFpS1SpR?mod=home-page


4. U.S. Dollar About to Make New Highs


5. Taiwan Semis Hitting New Highs on Numbers

Barrons-Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing posted a big jump in profit and sales for the third quarter, beating analysts’ estimates. It’s a sign of strong demand for artificial-intelligence chips.  Taiwan Semi, or TSMC, said revenue in U.S. dollars in the third quarter jumped 36% from a year earlier to $23.5 billion. Net profit rose 54% on the year to the equivalent of $10.1 billion. https://www.barrons.com/articles/tsmc-taiwan-semiconductor-earnings-stock-678836db?mod=hp_LEAD_5


6. Underwater Car Loans

American consumers are increasingly underwater on their car loans (cnbc.com)


7. However…Households Net Worth Going Up Across the Board….Dwarfing National Debt

Yes the large amounts of stimulus helped boost this and also ballooned the national debt. But take a look at household net worth less the national debt. This chart is really something.

Source: Jake


8. History of Portfolio Returns Since 1976

Jeffrey Sinak -AMG

https://wealth.amg.com/contactus/


9. India Plans $109 Billion Of Grid Investments To Boost Renewables

Zerohedge By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

India plans a massive upgrade and expansion of its power transmission system, expecting investment opportunities of $109 billion to support the integration of renewable energy sources and storage solutions, the power ministry has said.
India’s new National Electricity Plan (Transmission) envisages the addition of hundreds of thousands of kilometers of transmission lines, transformation capacity, and inter-regional transmission capacity by 2032.

India aims to have 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity installed by 2030 and more than 600 GW by 2032, according to the National Electricity Plan.
The country expects its power demand to surge to 708 GW by 2047, India’s Power Minister Manohar Lal said in a statement. To meet this demand, India needs to quadruple its power capacity, the minister added.

“This is not just about increasing capacity; it’s about reimagining our entire energy landscape,” Lal said.
“We have set an ambitious target of 500 GW of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030, effectively doubling our current capacity,” he added.

This push towards green energy aligns with India’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions by one billion tons by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, the power ministry said.
Last month, Renewables Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi said that financial institutions had pledged $386 billion in investment commitments to help India boost its renewable energy industry.

The country will need to install at least 44 GW of clean energy capacity every year by the end of the decade to meet the 500-GW goal, according to Bloomberg’s estimates based on data from the Indian Ministry of Power.

“We received overwhelming commitments from states and Union Territories as well as from the developers, manufacturers, and financial institutes to support our goal of 500 GW by 2030,” Joshi said at the annual Renewable Energy Investor’s Meet and Expo in India.
India-based conglomerates Reliance Industries and Adani are among the companies that have pledged additional renewable energy capacity. Reliance committed 100 GW of additional renewable capacity, and Adani Green Energy pledged to develop 38.8 GW of capacity. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/india-plans-109-billion-grid-investments-boost-renewables


10. New Neuroscience Reveals 5 Secrets That Will Make You Smarter -Eric Barker

Here’s how to get smarter:

  • Consider The Opposite: No, this is not a mental autoimmune disorder; it’s epistemological hygiene. Consider how you could be wrong and you’re less likely to be wrong.
  • Use Self-Distancing: Sounds like something I might do at a family reunion. In reality, it’s stepping outside your emotional meltdown to look at the situation from a cool, objective distance, as if you’re watching a Netflix show about a character named “You.”
  • Use Base Rates: Those grim reapers of magical thinking that most people completely ignore because math is hard and hope is addictive. Before you worry about the unlikely or predict the impossible ask, “How often does this actually occur?”
  • Use Emotional Differentiation: The top investors are out there deciphering the exact flavor of their emotional state like wine connoisseurs, while we’re over here chugging emotional boxed wine. Get nuanced about your feelings and intuition can become a sixth sense.

We’d all love to have clear answers in life – but sometimes a little ambiguity can lead to better thinking.

Researchers did a study where students were given a method to solve a type of math problem. Half the students were told this was “the way to solve this equation” and the other half was told this was “one way to solve this equation.” And that little word made all the difference.

Students who heard “one way” were 50% more likely to get the right answer. And, when tested, they had a more thorough understanding of the mathematical principle. Researchers redid the study with students in the humanities and social sciences. It worked again and again.

When we hear, “This is the cause, end of story,” we’re like, “Cool, I’ll just memorize that and never think about it again.” But with a little ambiguity it’s like we’ve been handed the intellectual equivalent of a treasure map. We’re no longer following orders — we’re exploring. It’s like handing someone a mystery novel instead of a manual.

Our brains expand faster than the plot holes in a Fast & Furious movie. Instead of mindlessly regurgitating what we’re told, we’re thinking critically. When we hear, “Hey, this is one option, but there might be others,” we start thinking we have agency — and we start using our brains.

Don’t let yourself get locked on to one idea. Don’t get lazy. Leave some wiggle room. Stay open-minded. Ambiguity doesn’t always create confusion. Sometimes it creates curiosity. And curiosity? That’s the stuff of brilliance.

Whatever your cognitive ability might be, start using these tools to improve your cognitive style. Consider the opposite: What if this problem isn’t as difficult as I think it is? Then self-distance: What would I tell my friend if they were in this situation? Check the base rates: How does this usually play out in the real world? Use emotional differentiation: Am I really “unhappy” with this situation, or am I just “frustrated” with this one issue? And, finally, consider there might be more than one way to make things better…

Having a high IQ doesn’t come with a warranty against being stupid. Being smart is great, but being aware of how your brain is trying to trick you?  https://bakadesuyo.com/

That’s genius.

https://www.profgalloway.com/origin-story-2/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 16, 2024

1. Venture Exits in Q3 Plummet

Wolf Street Blog

Venture Capital Slammed by Fed Tightening: Exits Blocked after IPOs & SPACs Collapsed, Distributions at Financial Crisis Lows

 


2. Options Market Pricing in Bigger Single Stock Moves this Earnings Season


3. UBER New Highs Post TSLA Robotaxi News


4. Citi and Goldman Hit New Highs


5. Cash Levels of Active Managers Contra Indicator?


6. However…Longer-Term Margin Debt Not at Stretched Levels

Ed Yardeni Blog

Margin Debt


7. Europe’s Most Valuable Tech Company -35% from Highs

ASML -16% on day approaching 200-week moving average…last breached in 2022.


8. Trump Media Following PolyMarket Betting Odds


9. LVMH Trading Back to 2022 Levels…Sales Down Again in China


10. American Reading Habits-From Scott Galloway Prof G Blog

Origin Story

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 15, 2024

1-2. Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?

@Charlie Bilello Before the Fed cut interest rates by 0.50% on September 18, the average 30-year mortgage rate in the US was at 6.11%. Today it’s at 6.64%.


Many are wondering how that’s possible. Doesn’t the Fed control mortgage rates?
Not exactly. The Fed targets short-term interest rates which directly influence short-term bonds like 1-month and 3-month Treasury bills.
But mortgages are longer-term securities and are much more correlated with longer-term bonds like the 10-year and 30-year Treasury.
And those yields have actually been rising since the Fed cut rates, with the 10-year yield moving from 3.63% up to 4.09%.
What’s driving that move?
Rising inflation expectations, with 10-year breakevens moving up to 2.33% from a low of 2.02% before the Fed cut rates.

The market seems to be saying that the Fed rate cuts will stimulate the economy and lead to higher prices over the next 10 years. And long-term bond investors are demanding a higher yield in return.
What will happen to mortgage rates if the Fed cuts rates another 150 bps as currently expected?
That will depend on what happens with inflation expectations, longer-term Treasury yields, and the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury rates.
It will also depend on whether the Fed decides to start buying mortgage bonds again, something they haven’t been doing since April 2022.


3. NVIDIA at Previous Highs


4. XLG 50 Largest Stocks New Highs


5. Cybersecurity ETF New Highs

Foreign investors increased their purchases of Japanese stocks in the week ended Oct. 5, as the yen weakened following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s dovish remarks, boosting appetite for local exporters.  Foreigners acquired Japanese stocks worth 919.3 billion yen ($6.16 billion) on a net basis during the week, according to Finance Ministry data, in their largest weekly net purchase since April 13


6. DJT Trump Media Making Run at 200 Day…The Binary Event Stock of 2024


7. New Investors to Venture Capital

In 2023, 15,303 unique investors participated in at least one VC deal in the US. But this year, that figure has dropped to 11,425 investors, according to the Q3 2024 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor.

Startup investor ranks have fallen another 25%—can they come back to life? – PitchBook


8. $16B Spent on Election Cycle


9. Data Centers Share of Total Power Consumption


10. 4 Reasons Why You Wake Up Feeling Tired

Psychology Today
Waking up sleepy is only partly your fault. Gary L. Wenk, Ph.D.
Key points

  • Getting a good night’s sleep requires a balance of internal and external factors.
  • Internal factors include the role of diet and alterations in brain chemistry.
  • External factors include the environment, circadian rhythms, and sleeping partners.

The alarm rings, you awaken, and you are still drowsy. Why? Being sleepy in the morning does not make any sense; after all, you have just been asleep for the past eight hours. Shouldn’t you wake up refreshed, aroused, and attentive? No, and there are a series of ways to explain why.
The neurobiological answer
During the previous few hours before waking in the morning, you have spent most of your time in REM sleep, dreaming. Your brain was very active during dreaming and quickly consumed large quantities of the energy molecule ATP. The “A” in ATP stands for adenosine. The production and release of adenosine in your brain is linked to metabolic activity while you are sleeping. There is a direct correlation between increasing levels of adenosine in your brain and increasing levels of drowsiness. Why? Adenosine is a neurotransmitter that inhibits, i.e., turns off, the activity of neurons responsible for making you aroused and attentive. You wake up drowsy because of the adenosine debris that collected within your brain while you were dreaming. The only known cure for too much adenosine is coffee.
Who did you sleep with last night?
Couples sleeping in pairs were investigated for sleep quality, that is, for the correct balance of non-REM and REM, as well as their own subjective view of how they slept. For women, sharing a bed with a man had a negative effect on sleep quality. However, having sex prior to sleeping mitigated the woman’s negative subjective report, without changing the objective results—that is, her balance of non-REM and REM was still abnormal. In contrast, the sleep efficiency of the men was not reduced by the presence of a female partner, regardless of whether they had sexual contact. In contrast to the women, the men’s subjective assessments of sleep quality were lower when sleeping alone. Thus, men benefit by sleeping with women; women do not benefit from sleeping with men, unless sexual contact precedes sleep—and then their sleep still suffers for doing so.
Did you go to bed late last night?
Too many people go to bed too late on too many nights. The reason is that going to bed later just feels better; in addition, we tend to fall asleep faster if we delay going to bed. Going to bed one hour later every night is easier than going to bed one hour earlier. Why? Because humans evolved an endogenous biological clock that is set for 25 hours while we live in a world that functions on a strict 24-hour cycle. This means that it is always easier to go to bed one hour later. People who prefer to stay out late (evening types) get up at a later time and perform best, both mentally and physically, in the late afternoon or evening. Unfortunately, evening-type individuals were also significantly more likely to suffer from poor sleep quality, daytime dysfunction, and sleep-related anxiety as compared with morning-type individuals. Even more disconcerting is that late bedtime is associated with decreased hippocampal volume in young healthy subjects. Shrinkage of the hippocampus has been associated with impaired learning and memory abilities.
Did you go to bed hungry last night?
What you eat before bedtime also might improve your chances of getting a good night’s sleep. A recent study suggests that eating something sweet might help induce drowsiness. Elevated blood sugar levels have been shown to increase the activity of neurons that promote sleep. These neurons live in a region of the brain that lacks a blood-brain barrier; thus, when they sense the presence of sugar in the blood they make you feel drowsy. This might explain why we feel like taking a nap after eating a large meal. This is just one more bit of evidence demonstrating your brain’s significant requirement for sugar in order to maintain normal function.
Getting a good night’s sleep is not always easy for most people. With aging, normal sleep rhythms become increasingly disrupted leading to daytime sleepiness. Scientists have determined that we sleep best at puberty; then, sleep quality declines with age.
What if you do not get enough sleep?
Although scientists have not discovered why we sleep, they have discovered that we need between six and eight hours every night. Not getting enough sleep makes us more likely to pick fights and focus on negative memories and feelings. The emotional volatility is possibly due to the impaired ability of the frontal lobes to maintain control over our emotional limbic system. We also become less able to follow conversations and more likely to lose focus during those conversations. Sleep deprivation impairs memory storage and also makes it more likely that we will “remember” events that did not actually occur. Extreme sleep deprivation also may lead to impaired decision-making and possibly visual hallucinations. Not getting enough sleep on a consistent basis places you at risk of developing autoimmune disorders, cancer, metabolic syndrome, and depression. Why? Some recent studies have reported that sleep is important for purging the brain of abnormal, and possibly toxic, proteins that can accumulate and increase the probability of developing dementia in old age.
Whatever you are doing right now, stop and go take a nap. Preferably alone.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-on-food/202410/4-reasons-why-you-wake-up-feeling-tired

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 11, 2024

1. Software ETF New Highs


2. Micro Cap Stock ETF Still 21% Below Highs


3. Bonds and Gold Performance During Stock Crashes

Jack Ablin Cresset

https://cressetpartners.com/


4. Warren Buffett Deepens Association with Japan’s Capital Markets

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
JAPAN BUYERS
– Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has raised 281.8 billion yen ($1.9 billion) in a yen-denominated bond offer, a move analysts say lays the ground for the U.S investment company to increase its exposure to Japanese assets.  The deal was the largest bond sale in the Japanese currency for the firm in five years, a term sheet reviewed by Reuters on Thursday showed.  The yen, or Samurai, bond issue signals Buffett’s deepening association with Japan’s capital markets after its equity stake buys in the nation’s top five trading houses over the past four years.

Foreign investors increased their purchases of Japanese stocks in the week ended Oct. 5, as the yen weakened following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s dovish remarks, boosting appetite for local exporters.  Foreigners acquired Japanese stocks worth 919.3 billion yen ($6.16 billion) on a net basis during the week, according to Finance Ministry data, in their largest weekly net purchase since April 13


5. Trump Media +50% in 5 Days


6. STAX -Schwab Activity Index-New (2019) Sentiment Index

Bespoke-Traders Much Less Enthusiastic Now Versus 2021 
This week we got an update from the Schwab Trading Activity Index, also called the STAX.  We initially covered this data in Tuesday’s Closer for subscribers, but we also wanted to highlight it here on Think BIG.  Whereas most investor sentiment readings like the AAII survey directly ask investors how they feel about the market, indicators like the STAX are derived by measuring what retail investors are actually doing in their accounts.  In September, Schwab’s Trading Activity Index fell to 47.1, which is the lowest reading since January.  That drop occurred even though the stock market continued to rally to new all-time highs.

The STAX data dates back to 2019, and as shown below, the index surged in late 2020 through late 2021 during the first post-COVID bull market when Americans were flush with stimulus cash and were actively bidding up pretty much everything that traded!  At the time, the STAX index saw record highs with readings above 75 in June and November 2021.  November 2021 was ultimately the peak for growth stocks before the bear market of 2022.

Notably, there’s a big difference between the STAX reading now versus 2021.  The stock market is currently up 60%+ off the late 2022 lows and has registered 44 all-time highs already this year. Similarly, the market was also making a new high after a new high back in 2021. During this year’s rally, though, the STAX has remained quite subdued compared to going gangbusters in 2021.  This tells us that there’s less complacency, enthusiasm, and overall interest in the market right now versus 2021 levels, which is good if you’re a long-term bull.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/traders-much-less-enthusiastic-now-versus-2021


7. One of Druckenmiller’s Buys was KMI Kinder Morgan…..Making a Run at 2014 Highs


8. Foreign Central Banks Buying Up 30 Y Treasury Auction

Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stunning-foreign-demand-strongest-30-year-auction-record


9. Where are Populations Growing?

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-top-10-countries-driving-future-population-growth


10. Everything costs -Seth’s Blog

But not all costs are the same.

There are three kinds of costs that people get confused about, but understanding them, really understanding them–in your bones–unlocks opportunity.

Opportunity cost: If you eat the cupcakes, you can’t also eat the brownies. Every time we choose to do something, we’re choosing not to do something else.

Sunk costs: If you’ve invested time or money in something (a law degree, a piece of real estate, a bag of chips) that money is gone. All you have left is what you bought, and that is a gift… a gift from your former self. You don’t have to accept the gift if it’s no longer useful to you. Using a gift still has real opportunity cost, and if it’s keeping you from doing something better, walk away.

Marginal cost: How much extra does this decision cost? For a subscriber, the marginal cost of watching one more show on Netflix is zero. The service costs the same regardless of how many shows you watch. On the other hand, the marginal cost of a tuna sandwich is equal to what it costs to replace the ingredients. It makes sense to prefer things with a lower marginal cost if everything else is similar.

I’ve never encountered a person who was fully rational in making decisions on any of these three sorts of costs. That’s okay. But let’s do it on purpose. 

https://seths.blog/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 10, 2024

1. Dow Jones Breadth

Sentiment Trader-Marketwatch
The Dow DJIA has risen 152 times over the past 250 trading days, Jason Goepfert, senior research analyst at SentimenTrader, observed in a Wednesday note — a win rate of just under 61%. The only times it saw such consistency in the past came in April 2010 and May 2018, and both those instances preceded periods of around six months of choppy trading, he wrote.

“The buying pressure the index has enjoyed across time frames is truly historic. And, for the most part, this has been a good sign, at least for another 6-9 months. After that, the precedents dwindle further, especially those that show sustained gains,” Goepfert said. “The 1995-2000 period is the only one that managed a prolonged, impressive continuation of the momentum, and bulls need to hope that the [artificial intelligence] revolution is comparable to the internet bubble.”
 
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-is-running-hot-history-says-thats-usually-a-good-sign-b9dad2be?mod=home-page


2. Dow Transports Still Below 2023 Highs


3. History of Stocks with Consecutive 10%+ Sales Growth


4. All-Time High List


5. EWH Hong Kong ETF

Wild Ride on China Stimulus …50day thru 200day to upside.


6. Top 10 Online Stores

Read Full Top 100
https://www.aftership.com/store-list/top-100-ecommerces-stores


7. Tesla Talking RoboTaxi Today…Waymo 700 Vehicles in Several Cities

CHARTR BLOG The truth is, robotaxis are already here. In June, Google-backed Waymo opened up its services to the public, and it now counts ~700 vehicles in several cities, which are completing more than 100,000 self-driving rides a week. That progress is off the back of years of testing — Waymo autonomous vehicles racked up ~4.9 million miles in 2023, according to the California DMV, more than any other company that filed reports (Tesla does not report data).


8. Tesla Robotaxi Announcement Tonight

Oct 10 (Reuters) – By Norihiko Shirouzu and Chris Kirkham
Tesla aims to stun investors Thursday night with its long-awaited “robotaxi unveil,” a potential milestone after a decade of Elon Musk’s unfulfilled promises to deliver self-driving vehicles.
The automaker is widely expected to showcase a prototype called the “Cybercab” rather than a road-ready driverless taxi.
Convincing regulators and passengers of the vehicle’s safety could prove much harder and take much longer — while its main competitors, such as Alphabet’s Waymo, expand robotaxi fleets they’re already operating in select cities today.
Tesla has to date pursued a different technological path than all of its major self-driving rivals – one with potentially higher rewards but also higher risks to both its business and its passengers, according to Reuters interviews with more than a dozen executives, consultants and academics specializing in self-driving technology and three former Tesla autonomous-vehicle engineers.
Tesla’s strategy relies solely on a combination of “computer vision,” which aims to use cameras the way humans use eyes, with an artificial-intelligence technology called end-to-end machine learning that instantly translates the images into driving decisions. 

https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-gambles-black-box-ai-tech-robotaxis-2024-10-10/


9. AquaFence Protects Tampa Hospital

Morningbrew
How Tampa General withstood two hurricanes

Bryan R. Smith/Getty Images

Just two weeks after protecting Tampa General Hospital from Hurricane Helene, AquaFence faced a bigger test with Hurricane Milton…and once again it passed.
The hospital, the only Level 1 trauma center in the region, is located in the low-lying Davis Islands neighborhood of the city, a high-risk flood zone that was under a mandatory evacuation warning from Milton. But the staff stayed put during the storm, confident the building would be safeguarded by innovative, temporary bulwarks made by the company AquaFence the hospital first invested in four years ago.
It worked: As Milton moved inland overnight, Tampa General posted on X that it was “weathering the storm” and “power, water and supplies are holding strong.”
What is AquaFence?  The company’s watertight fences, which cost anywhere from $350 to $1,000 per linear foot, are made of one-inch-thick panels that secure to the ground and can withstand high winds while protecting buildings from flooding. Launched in Norway in 1999, AquaFence says it now protects more than $30 billion worth of real estate in the US across 24 states, shielding everything from hotels to banks to a Shake Shack.

  • They also go up quickly: According to the company’s US president, 100 feet of AquaFence can be installed in 30 minutes.
  • And crucially, AquaFence walls are reusable, able to be deployed up to 60 times.

Big picture: As climate change intensifies natural disasters, more private companies are working to develop tech to protect against the damage. And as the risks rise, so does the cost of keeping you and your stuff safe. AquaFence is developing a residential model that would cost around $20,000 per household.
The latest on Milton: As of 5am ET, Milton is exiting Florida’s east coast as a Category 1 storm after making landfall on the state’s west coast near Sarasota last night as a Category 3. More than 3 million homes and businesses are without power. You can read live updates here.—MM 

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


10. Growth of Admin Staff at Schools

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 09, 2024

1. China Stock Trading Turnover Hits Records

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/chinese-stocks-surge-on-return-from-holidays-as-euphoria-extends?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


2. Earnings Season Kicks Off …Expectations for Slowdown from Q2

SMH ETF 30 Points below highs.


4. Nuclear Production by Company


5. Exxon Mobil New All-Time Highs


6. Google Challenged in Search

WSJ By Suzanne Vranica and Miles Kruppa
Amazon is expected to have 22.3% of the market this year, with 17.6% growth, compared with Google’s 50.5% share and its 7.6% growth.  “This space has been ripe for a shake-up for a long period of time,” said Brendan Alberts, head of search and commerce at the ad-buying firm Dentsu.   Google remains in an enviable position: far ahead of the pack in the search market, with plenty of resources to counter moves by its rivals. Still, advertisers are eager for more competition.  “For the first time in probably 15 years, we will have viable alternatives to Google,” said Nii Ahene, a veteran digital-advertising executive. 


7. Office Glut Update

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET
The glut of vacant offices on the market for lease, as depicted by availability rates, rose to new records in many major office markets in Q3, despite pronouncements by landlords that the office glut has bottomed out. The availability rate is the office space on the market for lease either by the landlord directly or by a tenant as a sublease, expressed as a percentage of the total office market.
Of the 15 office markets for which Savills released data today, these five had the biggest office gluts:

  1. San Francisco: 36.6%
  2. Atlanta: 30.6%
  3. Dallas-Ft. Worth: 30.0%
  4. Chicago: 29.4%
  5. Houston: 29.0%

Of the 15 markets, 6 hit new records, and 1 matched its prior record:

  1. San Francisco: 36.6%
  2. Atlanta: 30.6%
  3. Chicago: 29.4%
  4. Los Angeles: 28.3%
  5. Seattle: 28.2%
  6. Silicon Valley: 27.6% matched prior record
  7. Washington DC: 24.4%

Within a hair of their record were Dallas-Ft. Worth (30.0% v. 30.1% in Q1 and 29.8% in Q4 2023) and Philadelphia (25.2% in Q3 from 25.3% in Q1).
The chart shows the availability rates at three different points in time: red = Q3 2024; purple = Q1 2021; gray = Q1 2019.

Epic Office Glut Hits Records in San Francisco, Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle, Washington DC.  Dallas Availability Rate Dips to 30%, Houston rises to 29%


8. Commercial Real Estate Loan Maturities 2024-2025

Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/new-post

 


9. Covid Stimulus vs. 2008 Crisis

Kailash Concepts

 

Kailash Concepts, LLC – Behavioral Finance, Portfolio Strategy & Quantamental Tool Kits


10. Two Questions You Should Ask About Any Piece of Market Information

The Noise Factory  OCTOBER 8, 2024 / JOE WIGGINS  
What will the Fed do next? How will conflict in the Middle East impact the oil price? What does a new bout of stimulus mean for the Chinese Equity market? Is the US economy heading into a recession or reflation? Investors are trapped in a vortex of noise. We are compelled to engage with and react to a rotating cast of inescapably prominent and impossibly complex issues. This constant state of flux is the lifeblood of the investment industry but poison for clients. For most investors 99%, of what we see, hear and feel in financial markets is not just irrelevant to what we are trying to achieve, it actively makes it harder to make good decisions and attain our goals. Why is noise so ubiquitous and what can we do about it?

Critical to the success of any investor is the ability to cancel out the noise that surrounds us and focus on the elements that will have a material influence on our outcomes. Given the sheer complexity and chaos inherent in financial markets this can seem like an impossible task – how can we figure out what is significant?

There are two key criteria we can apply to help us identify harmful noise in financial markets (which is the vast majority of what we encounter). For any issue or event, we should ask two questions:

– Does it matter?

– Is it knowable?

Unless we can answer both in the affirmative, we can classify it as unhelpful noise.

Let’s take each in turn:

– Does it matter? Here we are seeking to understand whether the subject we are focusing on will actually matter to what we are trying to achieve. Let’s assume I have a 20-year investment horizon, will the next decision by the Fed have any obvious impact on my investment goals? Absolutely not. The same can be said for whatever geopolitical issue is the focus of our attention at any given point in time. If something is likely to have either no effect or a random influence on us meeting our investment objectives, then it is just noise. Spending time thinking about it is likely to leave us worse off. 

Even if something does matter – we are confident that some variable or topic will have a material impact on our investments over the time horizons that matter to us – it can still be noise, because it also must be knowable.

– Is it knowable? Being confident that something actually matters is a pretty high hurdle for investment information, but even that is not sufficient. For it not to be noise, it must be knowable or predictable. Why? Well, let’s say I was certain that the near-term decisions of the Fed or the latest geopolitical issue would have an impact on meeting my investment objectives – this is only meaningful if I know or can predict the outcome of these things. I need to know both that the Fed decision matters and believe that I can predict it, otherwise, what am I going to do about it?

If that isn’t tough enough, there is another problem. We often need to know two things – both what is going to happen and how it will impact financial markets. Many wonderful (lucky) predictions about a particular event have been rendered worthless because someone got the second part wrong. Forecasting any future occurrence is usually a herculean task, adding on a prediction of how it will then influence something else (alongside all the other unforeseeable things that might also impact it) is getting us pretty close to impossible.

So, how can we tell what matters and what is knowable? Well, we can apply some simple tests.

Does it matter?

Test: If I had a crystal ball and knew something would occur in advance, would it change my investment decision making?

This is a useful test for long-term investors because most things really should not influence our choices. There is a danger, however, of being overconfident and believing that certain pieces of information will move markets in an obvious way. Imagine having some foresight of 2020 ‘Covid’ economic data and making investment decisions based on that – it probably would have ended badly.

Is it knowable?

Test: 
Is the information already known or is there evidence that people can accurately predict it?

The most obvious piece of information that is in some way knowable is the valuation of an asset. For example, when bond yields were close to zero we didn’t need to make predictions about future returns being low – we knew this. Unfortunately, most financial market relevant activity isn’t knowable, it is instead reliant on making bold predictions about the future, which in complex adaptive systems is quite the ask.

Bringing these aspects together creates a simple framework for addressing the issue of noise in financial markets and the many problems it causes investors: 

Does it matter? Is it knowable? What to do about it?
Yes Yes Use the information 
Yes No Diversify 
No No Ignore 

https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2024/10/08/the-noise-factory/    Found at Abnormal Returns Blog https://abnormalreturns.com/2024/10/08/tuesday-links-a-collective-mistake/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 08, 2024

1. OPEN AI Valuation vs. Other Big Tech

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2. The Rally is Spreading to Other Sectors/Market Caps

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-11-1024x678.png

Source: Grant Hawkridge


3. Rate Sensitive Sectors Leading

Private client flows. Clients continue buying rate-sensitive areas (REITs, Financials, Utilities) and selling defensive (Low-vol, Staples).

Michael Hartnett – BofA


4. FANG+ ETF Never Got Back to July Highs


5. Tesla Failed at July Highs


6. Past Chinese Stock Market Rallies Have Been Powered by Stimulus….KWEB Chinese Internet ETF +50% in One Month.

Of the five major stock-market rallies in China in the past quarter-century, three were powered by stimulus. Stocks during those episodes notched trough-to-peak gains of between 50% and 100%, suggesting this rally could have much further to run if policymakers follow through with meaningful stimulus and property-market support, Thomas Gatley, China strategist at Gavekal Dragonomics, wrote in a report Monday. By
Rebecca Feng and Jason Douglas https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-manufacturing-gauge-signals-continued-weakness-in-economy-3a729f33


7. META/RAY BAN Eyeglasses

TECH
Will these be the end of privacy?

Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses

Josh Edelson/Getty Images
In a shocking turn of events, someone was able to use a new high-powered tech product for evil. Two Harvard students paired the Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses with facial recognition software to rapidly identify strangers and compile their personal information from the internet to highlight the privacy concerns that are getting unboxed with easily accessible consumer tech.
In a video posted to X, AnhPhu Nguyen and Caine Ardayfio explained how they built I-XRAY. The program uses the glasses to capture images of random people on campus and at a train station, identify them through a publicly accessible facial recognition search site like PimEyes, and then use a large language model (LLM) to trawl the web and compile the person’s information. Nguyen and Ardayfio could access people’s addresses, the names of their parents, and photos in mere minutes, and even approached unsuspecting people using the info they collected to make them think they had met before.
The creators said they would not release the code for this program but created it to highlight how it’s possible to build invasive tech with recent advancements like smart glasses and LLMs.

  • When 404 Media approached Meta for comment about the project, it said that similar information gathering could be used with any camera.
  • Meta’s smart glasses have a small light that comes on when the wearer is recording, but many people report it being hard to see in crowded spaces and bright lighting outside.
  • Nguyen and Ardayfio said they chose the glasses specifically for their inconspicuousness.

Big picture: Searching through someone’s info online has been around since Facebook introduced poking, but with the right tools, like artificial intelligence, it’s easier, faster, and potentially more invasive.—MM

META Powers to New Highs.


8. U.S. Dollar has Best Week in Two Years


9. ‘It’s going to be a mess’: The flood insurance crisis following Helene’s wreckage

Only 2 percent of households in flooded parts of Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina can get insurance paymentss
Cindy White looks over the devastation inside her home in North Carolina caused by Hurricane Helene. Only a tiny number of households in North Carolina have flood insurance. | Kathy Kmonicek/AP
By Avery Ellfeldt Hundreds of thousands of people across parts of the Southeast will struggle to rebuild their homes after Hurricane Helene for one reason: Hardly anyone has flood insurance.
In dozens of counties in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina that were flooded by Helene, less than 1 percent of households have flood insurance through the federal program that sells almost all of the nation’s flood policies.
“People never thought they would have a problem with flooding,” said Jimmy Isaacs, fire chief of Boone, North Carolina, a mountainous town in Watauga County, where less than 2.5 percent of households are insured. “It’s going to be a difficult recovery.”
Helene is highlighting the major gaps in U.S. flood insurance and their consequences as climate change amplifies flood risk both from coastal storm surge and rapidly overflowing rivers in Boone and other inland areas.
Flood insurance is sold separately from homeowners’ insurance, which typically does not cover flood damage. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program covers 4.6 million homes and businesses.
But the overwhelming number of people who don’t live on the coasts do not purchase coverage either because they aren’t required to, can’t afford to or don’t think they’re at risk. The result is a dangerously low number take it, leaving millions of people without financial protection from floods and their increasing damage.
States flooded by Helene exemplify the problem. In North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, just 2 percent of households in counties that are declared a federal disaster area have FEMA flood insurance, according to a POLITICO’s E&E News analysis of agency records.
In South Carolina, just 0.5 percent of the 770,000 households in disaster counties have FEMA insurance.
In North Carolina, 0.8 percent of households in disaster counties have FEMA insurance.
In Georgia, 8.5 percent of properties in disaster counties have FEMA insurance, though the figure is inflated by a large number of policies in coastal Chatham County, which includes Savannah. Excluding Chatham, 0.7 percent of households in disaster counties have FEMA insurance
In Florida, which has one of the highest rates of FEMA coverage, 24 percent of households in disaster counties are covered. The next disaster after Helene: Almost no victims had flood insurance. – POLITICO


10. Twenty questions-Seth’s Blog

Your next project might feel like a calling, but it’s a choice. A choice that will have an impact on each day you spend on it.
There are no right answers here, but before you fall in love with a business or an organization, it may pay to think about these and other options that are built in:

  • Are you selling to consumers?
  • Are you raising money?
  • Do you serve one person at a time or does a committee have to agree?
  • Is there a network effect to the work you do?
  • Is the margin on each item low?
  • What’s the lifetime value of a new patron, customer or partner?
  • Is the work time sensitive?
  • Do you meet with people in person?
  • Are you answering RFPs or are people seeking you out by name?
  • Is price or yield or efficiency the dominant metric in making a choice?
  • Will you create value with your personal effort or by managing others?
  • How will people find out about what you do?
  • Is accuracy the most important part of what you deliver?
  • Can a competitor who works far more hours have a big advantage over you?
  • What’s the effluent, waste or side effects of what you create?
  • Are you likely to spend time working with peers you like?
  • Are you likely to respect your customers?
  • How much time after you begin before you expect your metrics to be positive?
  • Is the learning curve steep?
  • After you’ve learned how to do this, does it become boring?

Pick your customers, pick your future.
PS Joel recommended this post from fourteen years ago.
https://seths.blog/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 02, 2024

1. No Shock…Largest Week of Chinese Equity Buying Ever

HFs vs. China. Last week, “Chinese equities saw the largest weekly net buying on our book’s record, driven almost entirely by long buys.”

Cullen Morgan – Goldman Sachs


2. Q3 Sector Returns


3. Gold Straight Up After U.S. Froze Russian Assets

Market Ear Blog

https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


4. Gold Keeping Pace with S&P Bull Market

Barrons


5. Fear and Greed Index Ticking into “Extreme Greed” Territory

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


6. Russell 2000 Small Cap Still Below Summer Highs


7. FXI China Large Cap 61% of ETF Float is Short

I heard this on Josh Brown podcast interview with Tom Lee ..I almost drove off road.

https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/130-000-people-have-watched-this-tom-lee-conversation-so-far


8. Global Monetary Easing

The Daily Shot Brief Global Developments: Monetary easing accelerated in September.

Source: BofA Global Research 


9. Food Inflation Drop

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com


10. There Are Two Types of Happiness—But Only One Lasts

Psychology Today-Most of us are hooked on the first type. Here’s what to do instead-Emma Seppälä Ph.D.

 

KEY POINTS

  • Hedonic happiness is all the pleasures of the senses—it’s fun but short-lived.
  • Eudaimonic happiness is the pleasure you get from helping others, meaning, and purpose.
  • The right balance of both can lead to a life that is both fun and fulfilling.

There are two forms of happiness, but only one leads to lasting joy. Most of us are hooked on the first and forget about the second, leaving us with subpar levels of well-being. The good news? You can do something about it.

The Allure of Hedonic Happiness

Hedonic happiness—think sex, drugs, and rock ‘n’ roll—captures all the pleasures of the senses: food, money, even fame and popularity. These experiences provide a brief high, followed by a dip that leaves you craving more.

We often link happiness directly to pleasure, imagining it as a series of thrilling, fun, or sensual moments. While hedonic happiness offers delightful bursts of joy, let’s be honest: these moments are short-lived. Once the initial thrill fades, we’re left searching for the next high, whether it’s from a favorite movie or an extravagant meal—the “hedonic treadmill” of chasing fleeting pleasures.

Moreover, we’re often sold the idea that happiness can be bought—that a new gadget or a luxurious vacation will fill the void. However, people in more materialistic societies frequently report feeling less fulfilled, sometimes even more depressed. This highlights the trap of hedonic happiness: while it can be enticing, it often leads to a sense of emptiness when the pleasures fade. So, how can we bring more lasting happiness into our lives?

The Depth of Eudaimonic Happiness

Eudaimonic happiness shifts the focus from personal pleasure to something greater—connection, service, and a sense of purpose. This kind of happiness nourishes us and contributes to a lasting sense of contentment.

Giving to others can even increase well-being beyond what we experience when spending money on ourselves. A revealing experiment published in the journal Science by Professor Elizabeth Dunn at the University of British Columbia showed that participants who received a sum of money and were instructed to spend it on others felt significantly happier than those who spent it on themselves. Neuroscience studies by Jordan Grafman and others also show that the act of giving can be more pleasurable than receiving.

This finding holds true even for infants! A recent study by Lara Aknin and colleagues at the University of British Columbia demonstrated that even children as young as two find greater happiness in giving treats to others than in receiving treats themselves. Remarkably, this trend is observed worldwide, regardless of a country’s wealth. A different study showed a strong correlation between the amount of money spent on others and personal well-being—regardless of income, social support, perceived freedom, and national corruption.

The Power of Compassion

Eudaimonia doesn’t mean you have to spend money on others. Any form of support or help can contribute to this happiness. One reason compassion may boost our well-being is that it broadens our perspective beyond ourselves. Research shows that depression and anxiety are linked to a state of self-focus—a preoccupation with “me, myself, and I.” When you do something for someone else, that self-focus shifts to a state of other-focus. Think of the last time you helped someone; chances are, it made you feel great, no matter how you felt before that.

Moreover, cultivating compassion can enhance our sense of connection to others. One telling study showed that a lack of social connection is a greater detriment to health than obesity, smoking, or high blood pressure. People who feel more connected to others have lower rates of anxiety and depression and enjoy higher self-esteem. They tend to be more empathetic, trusting, and cooperative, creating a positive feedback loop of social, emotional, and physical well-being.

A study by Barbara Fredrickson and Steve Cole reveals an intriguing truth: individuals who derive happiness primarily from hedonic pursuits have inflammation levels similar to those experiencing chronic stress. In contrast, people who find joy through meaningful connections and a sense of purpose—what we call eudaimonic happiness—show significantly lower inflammation levels. This suggests that deeper fulfillment provides a protective effect on our well-being.

Finding Your Balance

Consider happiness like a meal: a decadent dessert may provide instant pleasure, but a wholesome meal leaves you feeling energized and satisfied. If we chase only short-term pleasures, we might feel excited for a moment but ultimately drained. Eudaimonic happiness, on the other hand, fosters deeper joy that lasts.

Research by Ryff and Singer (2008) highlights that integrating both hedonic and eudaimonic elements into our lives leads to better psychological health and life satisfaction. They suggest that balancing these two forms of happiness enhances our overall well-being, creating a richer experience of life. Both hedonic and eudaimonic pursuits have their place; they enrich our lives in different ways, and finding the right balance is key.

Simple Steps to Cultivate Meaning

  1. Connect with Loved Ones: Make time for family and friends. Share meaningful conversations and experiences that strengthen your bonds.
  2. Give Back: Look for opportunities to serve your community. Volunteering can provide a profound sense of purpose and fulfillment.
  3. Explore Spirituality: Whether through organized religion, personal reflection, or an appreciation of nature and art, nurturing your spiritual side can add depth to your life.
  4. Practice Gratitude: Regularly reflect on what you’re thankful for. This shift in focus can help you appreciate what truly matters.
  5. Seek Growth: Invest in self-discovery and personal development. Pursue activities that challenge you and bring a sense of accomplishment.

Embracing a Holistic View of Happiness

Enjoy both the thrill of pleasure and the richness of meaning. By embracing this balance, you can navigate the beautiful landscape of happiness, creating a life that’s not just fun—but profoundly fulfilling.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/feeling-it/202409/there-are-two-types-of-happiness-but-only-one-lasts

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 October 01, 2024

1. China JD.com- 70% of Market Cap was Cash Before Rally

2021 high was $100


2. Alibaba 47% of Market Cap was Cash Before Rally

BABA 2021 high was $300


3. Assets in Money Markets Approaching $7 Trillion

WSJ 

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/when-will-money-market-funds-lose-their-allure-952c3805?mod=itp_wsj


4. REIT XLRE Chart Bullish Cross


5. Regional Bank ETF No Breakout on Fed Cut


6. Financials ETF XLF  New Highs


7. SLV Silver ETF $856m in New Flows 2024

SLV back to highs


8. Refinancings vs. Mortgage Rates


9. According to Barrons cover story this weekend…GLP-1 sales at $50B and still growing 50% CAGR per year, with global penetration rates in low single digits.

Grandview Research The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market size was estimated at USD 36.79 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21.65% from 2024 to 2030. The launch of new GLP-1 receptor agonist products, a strong product pipeline for both diabetes & obesity applications, and the high efficacy of these drugs are anticipated to propel the market. For instance, in November 2023, Eccogen and AstraZeneca signed an exclusive licensing agreement for ECC5004, an investigational oral GLP-1 receptor agonist to treat patients with type 2 diabetes, obesity, and cardio-metabolic conditions. Phase I trial preliminary results have demonstrated a distinct clinical profile for ECC5004, with good tolerability and encouraging reductions in body weight and glucose at all tested dose levels compared to placebo.

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/glp-1-receptor-agonist-market  Barrons Healthcare story https://www.barrons.com/articles/healthcare-biotech-pharma-stocks-roundtable-dcb49100?mod=past_editions


10. Shrinking Number of Men in Labor Force

Emily Peck-Axios

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/28/working-class-men-labor-market-losses

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 30, 2024

1. China Large Cap Chart

Held 2022 lows just broke above 2023 high


2. China Small Cap

Held previous low….Still moved to positive return for 2024


3. Emerging Markets +5.5% Last Week

Big technical level in play…50week about to go thru 200week to upside.


4. Emerging Markets Still Below 2020 Highs

Another technical level…watch for breakout to new high.


5. Everything Rally Since August

Source: Jim Paulsen

From Spilled Coffee Blog https://www.spilledcoffee.co/


6. Micron Chart

Retraced all of 2024 gains before this week’s rally, still well below 2024 highs.


7. Biotech Sideways for 5 Years….New Venture Rounds Picking Up

Biotech ETF still below 2021 highs.

Venture Mega Rounds Returning WSJ By Brian Gormley  Venture mega-rounds are on the rise in biotechnology as the outlook for the industry brightens.  Sixty-eight U.S. and European biotech startups raised venture financings of $100 million or more this year through Aug. 31, putting this year on track to at least approach the 106 mega-rounds closed in 2021, the highest number on record, according to Silicon Valley Bank.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venture-mega-rounds-return-to-biotech-1f639d04?mod=biotech_news_article_pos3


8. Hezbollah Chain of Command Wiped Out.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/12557338/mystery-hezbollah-leader-nasrallah-lebanon-israel


9. How Much Doctors Make by Specialty


10. 10 Things I Learned from Mark Cuban

Robert Herjavec   Emmy Award Winner 🏆 Entrepreneur | Investor | Cybersecurity Expert Lead Shark on Shark Tank 🦈 Author | Mentor | Car Enthusiast Constant, Forward Momentum 🚀

I have now been doing Shark Tank for almost 20 years. Kevin O’Leary and I started with the show in Canada (called Dragon’s Den) and did it there for about five years. Now, we have been doing it in the United States for 17 years. I have also done two seasons of Shark Tank in Australia. I love the show. I love how it inspires people and teaches everyone the language and opportunity of business. I get a lot of motivation and energy from all the people that come and pitch to us, but I also get a lot of energy and knowledge from the other Sharks and Dragons. These are some of the most amazing businesspeople I have had the pleasure to meet, and I get to hang out with them. How cool is that?
This is Mark’s last season on the show—while we will miss him, the power of the show will certainly continue. It has made me reflect on all the amazing things I have learned from Mark. Mark is a big guy—in all things—and his presence fills every room. I was probably not confident enough in myself at the time to not let that intimidate me.
Over the years, I have gained a massive amount of respect for him. He is a great guy, not just in business, but also fun, family-loving, pure of heart, highly competitive, and a good friend. I will never forget, one time when I was going through some difficult times, the first Shark to call me and check in was Mark.
I will never forget that, and if I haven’t said thank you for that, let me say it here. But let me say thank you more for all the valuable lessons I have been fortunate enough to learn from you. And no, I am not paying you for them, Mark! You simply get my undying gratitude.

Beware the one in the T-shirt (not the one in the suit)
I remember when I first met Mark, I was surprised at how “badly” he dressed. I had pictured a guy worth that kind of money in designer outfits—not necessarily in a suit and tie, but maybe some casual Brunello Cucinelli. In fact, I think at one point I said to Mark, “Why do you dress so badly?” (jokingly), and he said (not jokingly), “Because I can.” I didn’t get it at the time, but he was right. He has nothing to prove, and most rooms he walks into, people are selling to him. When you’re the one being sold to, you can wear whatever the hell you want. Chances are, if you walk into a room and there’s a bunch of suits, beware the person wearing the T-shirt. They probably worked their ass off to get to a point where they can wear whatever they want, and the odds are the suits work for the person in the T-shirt.

Lesson: Everyone has a thing—Mark’s thing isn’t clothes or cars. Never judge someone by their “thing” because it may not be your thing. I stopped having to wear a suit a long time ago, but I still like a good Tom Ford suit. When I first started out, I worked for six months part-time at a high-end men’s shop so I could get a discount to buy my first quality suit. Dressing well means something to me. I love cars, Mark couldn’t care less. Cars excite me; to Mark, they’re just basic transportation. Everyone has their own thing. Not sure I’ll ever be the Mark Cuban T-shirt-wearing guy. The difference is, I don’t wear clothes to impress anyone anymore because I don’t need to. My advice: when you’re starting out, dress to impress—until you’re the one they need to impress. It’s fine to be the T-shirt guy, but until you “make it,” show some respect and dress for the situation.

Expect to Win – Always
One day between shooting pitches, I was working on a big deal and asked Mark, “Every time you do a deal or compete, do you expect to win?” Mark, without hesitation, said, “Yes, I expect to win every time.” I then asked, “What if it doesn’t work out?” He simply said, “It will.” I loved that—absolute sheer confidence in the results, and more importantly, in himself. Another friend of mine (and guest Shark) wrote a book on this recently called Burn the Boats. It’s basically about abandoning Plan B and only focusing on Plan A. Even having a Plan B gives you the option of not winning at Plan A.
This was such an “aha” moment for me. I have to admit, it wasn’t my natural mindset. I wasn’t born with that level of confidence—it’s something I had to work on very hard. My background was as an immigrant—shy, poor, came here on a boat, everyone made fun of me, etc. My mindset was, “I am determined to win, but I should have a backup plan.” Maybe this is an immigrant thing—the fear of going back to where you came from. Lots of Plan Bs my entire life.

Lesson: I think this thought pattern works for some people, and I think it can be very risky. You have to expect to win, but I believe when you’re building a large-scale business, you have to take calculated risks. I still believe you should never make a bet that risks losing the entire farm. But I have to admit, as I’ve been more successful, while I may not have bet the entire farm, I’ve certainly bet the horses, cows, and chickens to grow my farm.
It’s a balance, and it depends on where you are in life. Along these lines, one day I asked Mark, “Did you always expect to be rich?” He said, “When I was 12, I knew I was going to be rich.” I loved that answer and admired it because it was so different from my upbringing. When I was 12, I didn’t even think about being rich—I just didn’t want to be poor. Small distinction in some ways, but huge in others.

The Bigger You Get – The Bigger the Bullseye on Your Back
As successful as Mark is, his work ethic is still unbelievable. The man works his ass off. You’d think that, at his level, you wouldn’t have to work that hard, but it’s absolutely not true. There’s a fallacy that you can relax and coast at a certain point—and that is usually the point of decline. Remember when you started your business? You were the little guy, taking on the world. It was exciting, it was fun, and you wanted to take the big guy down. Well, once you get bigger and become “the guy,” someone wants to take you down. And that someone is willing to work 24/7 to do so.

Lesson: To stay on top, you have to work like someone is trying to steal it from you—because the odds are, someone is. And they’re willing to work 24 hours a day to do it—are you?

Time Kills All Deals
We had been shooting the show for three years in the U.S. even before Mark got on board. Obviously, he was very wealthy, but just having more money than another Shark wasn’t going to win deals. The people coming on the show need to get the amount of money they’re asking for, and in really good deals, we all become very competitive. Before Mark, we had all found ways to compete with each other—I’m a better Shark for this or that reason.
Mark came on and introduced something new—speed. I remember the very first time he did it, he made an offer and said, “I’m putting you on the 24-second shot clock.” I hate to admit it (not being a big basketball guy), but I didn’t even know what that meant. For those of you also not basketball fans, in basketball, you have 24 seconds to make a shot when you have the ball. If you don’t shoot during that time, you lose possession, and the opportunity is gone—the 24-second shot clock. The pitcher was confused—did he really mean it? What was going on? The rest of the Sharks all chimed in. I forget whether he actually got that deal, but he used it again many times in other deals, and it usually worked. He also brought in the idea of just taking the deal—quickly. You’d have a couple of Sharks negotiating for a deal. One would say, “I’ll give you $200K for 20%,” and another would say, “I’ll give you $200K for 18%,” and so on. The pitcher would respond, “Would you do $200K for 16%?”—and Mark, out of the blue, would say, “I’ll take that deal if you say yes right now.” And more often than not, it would work.

Lesson: Speed forces people to make a decision, and there’s the old saying: time kills all deals. When you force someone to make a decision quickly, you often get to see what they’re actually thinking. Most people have a hard time thinking that fast under stress, and their true self comes out. The other benefit is, if you aren’t going to get a deal, it’s better to know today than to waste time tomorrow.

Two Airplanes Are Better Than One – But Why Do You Care?
Most of the Sharks were doing an event at a high school one time (kids absolutely love our show), and one of the kids asked me, “Why do you still work so hard?” I was trying to be funny (believe it or not, all of us think we’re pretty funny), and said, “So I can buy a bigger jet than Mark.” I was joking and being flippant and cute. Mark said, “Which jet?”—meaning he had multiple jets. It kind of shut me up. If I’m being honest, it threw me for a loop. Not only did I realize my answer was stupid, but more importantly, it made me realize—how in the world was I ever going to afford a bigger jet? I had absolutely worked my ass off to get to the point of buying a plane, but Mark’s plane was twice the size of mine, and not only that, he had multiple planes. That thought just didn’t compute for me.
And then it hit me—why do I care? Did I work all this time, and sacrifice so much, to buy a plane, a car, more stuff? What was I doing? And why did it bother me? And most importantly, why do I care—because no one else does. But it really made me think. I had never been that money-driven—I was always success-driven. And now that I had some success and some nice stuff, I cared about other people’s stuff?
It made me step back and realize I had lost my way. As well as I was doing, I had lost the purpose and the focus that got me to where I was. It wasn’t about the stuff—it was about doing great things and having purpose. It wasn’t about competing with Mark or anyone else—it was about being the best I could be. Living to my potential—no one else’s. I had lost that bearing in my compass, and that simple answer from Mark brought me back—quickly.

Lesson: Know your why. There will always be someone with a bigger car, bigger jet, nicer watch, whatever. But it’s not about that—and it never was for me. Don’t get me wrong, I love nice and fun stuff, but I didn’t work so hard just to get nicer stuff. I had purpose, and I had clarity in that goal: take care of my family, help others, inspire people, make the lives of the people who work with me better. I wanted to make an impact on the world. Those are things that last—the stuff comes and goes.
Never forget your purpose—there is no greatness without great purpos

The Right and Wrong Time to Sell a Business
A number of years ago, someone offered me an enormous amount of money to buy my business. When I say enormous, I mean well over $100 million—all cash. Back then, that was a lot of money to me, and I was focused on the money and tempted to take it. I happened to be hanging out with Mark, and I told him about it—and asked whether I should take it or not. His answer was, “You should only sell your business in three cases: 1) You don’t want to do it anymore; 2) You don’t think it can continue to grow; or 3) The money will fundamentally change your life.” That was it—knee-jerk answer. I couldn’t stop thinking about it. Did I want to do it? Hell yeah, I loved my business. I believed in it and wanted to keep doing it. His point was: if you’re not 100% into it, business is so competitive, someone else will kick your ass because they will be 100% into it. Did I believe we could continue to grow? Absolutely. My business is cybersecurity, and at the time (and still do), I felt that it was just the tip of the iceberg. Would the money change my life? No, not really. Don’t get me wrong, for a poor immigrant kid, that kind of money was extraordinary. But would it change my life? I was already richer than I had hoped for when I started—I’d just be more rich with the money. And I loved my business and woke up every day ready to fight the good fight.
I didn’t do it, and of course, I regretted it as soon as the buyer walked away! But guess what? Two weeks later, I didn’t care. We kept growing and adding value, and lo and behold, a few years later, I ended up selling a piece of the business for many hundreds of millions more than someone was going to pay me for the entire company. And then I kept going and built a $1 billion company with the remainder.

Lesson: Know when to sell and be brutally honest with yourself. People often ask me, “Which sale changed your life the most?” I sold my first business for $600K, my second business for $30 million, and my last business, I sold a piece of it for many hundreds of millions. Which one changed my life the most? The first one—the $600K. I was such a nervous, scared kid, but selling that business for $600K in my 20s allowed me to pay off my mortgage and own a house. As an immigrant, that was my parents’ dream—they worked a lifetime to pay off their house, and I did it in my 20s. That gave me the freedom to take bigger risks, and the courage to do so.

Time is More Important Than Money
Mark says this all the time, but in fairness, so do most of my ultra-successful friends. Time is the only commodity you can’t get back or buy more of—and it’s true. Another lady I admire, Codie Sanchez, said, “You’re young and you’re broke, but every old billionaire would trade spots with you in a second.” And it’s true. I’m old—I don’t feel it, and I probably don’t look it, but I’ve already lived longer than both my parents. Time. I could always make more money, but I cannot make more time. Don’t waste what you’ve been given.
This one, I very much believe. Do it now—that trip you wanted to take, that company you wanted to start, that person you wanted to ask out—do it now. A life lived with regret is a life wasted. We are all here for a limited amount of time—make it worthwhile. Make it great. And by the way, if you don’t love your business and you’re doing it just to get more stuff, you’re probably wasting time.

Lesson: You can’t make more time, but you can make more money. Be wise about where you spend your time, and learn to say NO. Odds are, there are far too many time vampires in your life right now

Once Everyone Knows the Answer, the Opportunity is Probably Gone
Have you ever been wrong when everyone else was right? How did that make you feel? On the flip side, have you ever been right when everyone else was wrong? Mark was one of the first people to stream basketball games on the internet. At the time, that seemed like a not very good idea, considering you could do that for free on the radio. Everyone said he was wrong. Mark saw the opportunity and ended up selling that business for $6 billion. By then, everyone knew he was right. I never met Howard Schultz, but I did buy his old plane. Incredible attention to detail. I flew into Seattle one time to inspect his plane. I landed, and when the pilots opened the door, I walked onto the tarmac, and there was his assistant holding a silver tray with a cup of Starbucks coffee (how I like it—she had called my assistant ahead of time to find out) and a card from Howard. She said, “Mr. Schultz apologizes that he wasn’t able to meet you in person; he had to go to China, but he sends his card and asks that you call him anytime convenient for you.” Amazing level of detail. I read a story one time that Howard went to 300 VCs to get funding for Starbucks—a coffee shop where people would hang out and pay a premium for coffee—when there were already thousands of coffee shops. Everyone thought he was wrong. He thought he was right. Howard is now worth many billions of dollars, and Starbucks is a $100 billion company.
When I started my first business, I thought large companies would need to protect their employees online. Clients used to say to me, “We don’t allow internet access for users for personal stuff. We don’t need security.” I said, “You can’t stop people from accessing information, and you do need it.” Many people thought I was wrong, but I was right, and I created a billion-dollar business out of it.

Lesson: Get comfortable with being the contrarian, because that is usually where the opportunity is. To create great wealth and great value, you are probably going to make bets that others cannot see. And sometimes you are going to be wrong. But most successful people are more concerned about creating value than fitting in. It’s OK to be wrong—you only need to be right once. And when you’re right, let your winnings run.

There Are No Participation Trophies – Trophies Are Only for Winners
Mark is a highly competitive guy—in all things. One time, after a particularly heated and competitive negotiation for a deal against a couple of other Sharks, I asked him what he liked about the deal. He simply said, “Not sure, I just wanted to mess with the other Shark and win the deal.” If there’s a push-up contest, he wants to compete and win. Basketball—he loves the competition, but he wants to win. He loves to compete in all things. I had a guy that worked for me who was a huge Dirk Nowitzki fan, and it was his dream to meet him. We happened to be in Dallas for a game, and I reached out to Mark to see if he could arrange it. He said, “No problem, but not before the game; I want the guys focused on winning.” Winning first—always.

Lesson: If you’re going to play the game, play to win. And in order to win, you have to love to compete. Business isn’t flag football. It’s not feely, fluffy, touchy—it’s full-on, contact. I used to have a saying behind my desk: “Every day, someone wakes up with the sole intention of kicking your ass.” Keep that in mind.

You Only Need to Be Right Once
People often think that you have to win all the time in business, that you go from one win to another. Mark always says you only need to win once—and that’s all people will remember. And it’s true—no one remembers all the times I failed; they only remember my wins.

Lesson: Business is actually survival from one setback to another, constantly fighting to stay in the game. But here’s the beauty of life—you only need to win once. People remember Mark’s sale for $6 billion, people remember the Mavs winning the NBA championship. People don’t remember all the crappy seasons, all the setbacks. You just have to stay in the game and live to fight another day. And never forget—fortune favors the bold, but sometimes fortune just favors the lucky. And if you survive long enough, why can’t you get lucky?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/top-10-things-i-learned-from-mark-cuban-robert-herjavec-yd5yc/?trackingId=rd%2FqTFYl1UK8M2wtP6e7%2FA%3D%3D

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 25, 2024

1. Stocks Go Up When Earnings Go Up


2. Retail Investors More Concentrated than S&P

Retail portfolios. Nvidia and Apple account for over 20% of the average retail investor’s portfolio.

Vanda Research via @beursanalist

3. NVIDIA Still Below Highs


4. Chinese Tech Bounces But Still Sideways 3 Years

KWEB China Internet ETF


5. Uranium ETF Charts

URA Closes back above 200-day on daily chart.


6. Small Caps Need Lower Rates More than Ever

Credit: Small caps are facing a steeper debt maturity wall than large caps.

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi


7. Commercial Property Prices Rose 3% this Year

Bloomberg


8. U.S. Home Prices Hit New Highs as 30-Year Mortgage About to Break 6% Level


 

9. Top English as Second Language Countries


 

10. Ben Carlson -2 Things That Helped His Career

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 24, 2024

1. Since 2015 S&P Big Outperformance….How About 30 Years?

Over 30 Years Equal Weight (RSP), IJH Mid-Cap, and IJR Small Cap All Beat S&P
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright–The “core” of domestic equities, represented by the S&P 500, has dominated the market over the last decade.
Since 2015, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 178%, handily besting the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), iShares S&P Mid Cap 400 Index Fund (IJH), and iShares S&P Small Cap 600 Index Fund (IJR) by 50% in cumulative return. However, the core of the market hasn’t always been the area of strength within US Equities. In fact, the cap weighted S&P 500 has underperformed all three of the other previously mentioned indices across the last 30 years (since the start of 95′). While that alone is interesting, you may be surprised by which group sits atop the list: the S&P Mid Cap 400 Index (IJH).


2. 10% Plus Per Year Sales Growth is Rare

From Zach Goldberg at Jefferies
–GS noted, it’s hard to grow revenues fast for long. There are many examples of companies that can grow sales by more than 10% in a year, even 2 years, but very few examples of companies that can grow sales more than 10% year-after-year. Persistently high growth is rare and special — and unusual; the odds are against it happening


3. S&P Best Performance 2024 is not NVDA….VST +180%


4. Crypto High Correlation to Stocks Right Now

From The Daily Chartbook 
Crypto vs. stocks. “A 40-day correlation coefficient for a gauge of the largest 100 digital assets and the S&P 500 Index is at about 0.67, a level exceeded only in the second quarter of 2022 when it topped 0.72.”

Suvashree Ghosh – Bloomberg


5. China Double Bottom?


6. Rare Air-S&P Positive 35 of Past 52 Weeks

Sherwood News
But over the past year, the S&P 500’s rise has been unusually consistent. In 35 of the past 52 weeks, the benchmark US index has gained. This is rarefied air: going back to March 1957, only 5% of the time has the S&P 500 posted more weekly wins over a one-year span.

https://sherwood.news/markets/stock-market-weekly-relentless-rise


7. Post Rate Cut Returns Near All-Time S&P Highs


8. Teen Girls’ Brains Aged Rapidly During Pandemic, Study Finds

NYT- By Ellen Barry
Neuroimaging found girls experienced cortical thinning far faster than boys did during the first year of Covid lockdowns

The thinning of the cortex is seen by scientists as the brain rewiring itself as it matures.Credit…Institute for Learning and Brain Sciences, University of Washington

A study of adolescent brain development that tested children before and after coronavirus pandemic lockdowns in the United States found that girls’ brains aged far faster than expected, something the researchers attributed to social isolation.

The study from the University of Washington, published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, measured cortical thinning, a process that starts in either late childhood or early adolescence, as the brain begins to prune redundant synapses and shrink its outer layer.
Thinning of the cortex is not necessarily bad; some scientists frame the process as the brain rewiring itself as it matures, increasing its efficiency. But the process is known to accelerate in stressful conditions, and accelerated thinning is correlated with depression and anxiety.

Scans taken in 2021, after shutdowns started to lift, showed that both boys and girls had experienced rapid cortical thinning during that period. But the effect was far more notable in girls, whose thinning had accelerated, on average, by 4.2 years ahead of what was expected; the thinning in boys’ brains had accelerated 1.4 years ahead of what was expected.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/health/teen-brains-pandemic-girls.html


9. The Tax Code Grew in Length by 40% 1994-2021

Barrons By Karen Hube 
The tax code grew in length by 40% to about four million words between 1994 and 2021 and has expanded steadily since, and that pales when compared with ballooning regulations published annually to interpret the changes, along with tax court case law that sets precedents for how the tax code applies in specific circumstances.  From 2000 to 2022, the Department of Treasury’s annual volume of regulations grew 35% to 17,631 pages from 13,070, according to the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/filing-taxes-harris-trump-11f8de34?mod=past_editions


10. Put Yourself in Position for Success -Farnam Street Blog

“So much of life isn’t about intelligence or luck but putting yourself in a position for success.

The cash-rich investor thrives in crashes. The well-rested athlete outperforms the exhausted star. The student who studies daily aces the pop quiz. The employee who leaves early gets to the meeting with the CEO on time while the other person sits in the unanticipated traffic. All seem lucky, but they’ve positioned themselves to succeed.

Master your circumstances before they master you.”

https://fs.blog/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 23, 2024

1. Chart of Week-Fundstrat

Many investors wonder if the economy is late cycle. But as Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee points out, businesses became cautious about over-expanding in early 2022, when the Fed began signaling intentions to raise interest rates sharply. They have remained cautious ever since. “The private investment-to-GDP ratio sits at 25%, below the long-term average of 27%, and with the exception of the pandemic, no major recession has started since 1970 without this figure exceeding 28%,” he told us this week. Our Chart of the Week illustrates this

 

 


2. Coming Margin Expansion in AI?

Source: Sam Ro


3. Computer Processing Power +3440% 2015-2023

Food for Thought: Computational capacity of the fastest supercomputer:

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi
https://dailyshotbrief.com


4. Small Cap Russell 2000-7 Straight Days of Gains-First Time in 3 ½ Years

Bespoke Investment Group
The latest rally in the Russell 2000 has also been impressive given that yesterday was the seventh straight day of gains for the index which is the longest winning streak for the index in three and a half years. Seven-day winning streaks are by no means uncommon or extreme in the Russell 2000’s history. As shown in the chart below, since 1980 there have been 110 other winning streaks of at least seven trading days, and the longest was more than three times longer at 22 in March 1988.  What is interesting about the chart below, however, is how common 7-day winning streaks were from 1980 through the dot com bust (86 from 1980 through the end of 2022) and how uncommon they have been since (24 since 2003).

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bespokes-morning-lineup-9-20-24-closing-out-the-week-on-a-down-note


5. New Highs for 60/40 Portfolio

Source: Josh Schafer


6. A More Stable Financial System in U.S.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
Long-term loans to corporates are moving away from being financed by overnight deposits to instead being financed by long-term liabilities such as insurance and pensions, thereby making the financial system more stable, see chart below

 


7. AT&T Breaks Out of 12-Year Sideways Pattern


8. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Barrons-By Avi Salzman

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-china-went-from-climate-laggard-to-leader-of-the-energy-transition-05d1d267?mod=past_editions


 

9. Global Coal Consumption Is Still Soaring…

Zerohedge BY TYLER DURDEN
Despite efforts to decarbonize the economy, global coal consumption surpassed 164 exajoules for the first time in 2023. The fossil fuel still accounts for 26% of the world’s total energy consumption.
In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti shows global coal consumption by region from 1965 to 2023, based on data from the Energy Institute.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/global-coal-consumption-still-soaring


10. Have a Hard Time Making Decisions? How to Be More Decisive

 

Life is about choosing: Time to clear out the obstacles. Robert Taibbi L.C.S.W.

KEY POINTS

  • Living life is about making decisions, but if you fear making a “wrong” decision, you can become immobilized.
  • The underlying obstacles are self-criticism and worry about future regrets and what others may think.
  • The key is to realize when anxiety has taken over—you can’t control the future or make everyone happy.

Like it or not, everyday life is a factory of decision-making: What to wear for a first date, whether to take the new job, whether to circle back to the argument you had on Saturday night with your partner, or what to make for a dinner with friends. Some decisions are bigger, some smaller, but making choices is always a part of running your life. But because decisions have consequences, decision-making can often be challenging; for some, even minor decisions can feel like big ones. If you have a difficult time making up your mind, here are three common underlying obstacles along with ways to resolve them to help you be more decisive.

You’re self-critical or perfectionistic.

If you tend to be self-critical, always giving yourself a hard time over some “mistake,” or worse, are perfectionistic, needing everything to come out perfectly, every decision—the clothes, the job, the dinner, and the argument—feels equally important. Your mind flips through a checklist of criteria your decision needs to meet: Is this what I really want? Am I overreacting? Is the timing right? What will others think?

Consequences: You start to obsess, and that checklist is long. So you go online and look at dress combinations, make endless pro-and-con lists about the job, scour through dozens of recipes, and plug in multiple AIquestions to compose the perfect sentence that tells your partner how you feel without creating resentment.

Solution: Your brain is telling you that the only way to put this to rest is to work harder to get it right—get more information so you don’t make a mistake. But the real problem isn’t what to wear or say, but that your self-critical or perfectionistic mind has taken over, pressuring you to make every decision, however small, the right one.

Time to get your rational brain back online: Realize that every decision doesn’t have the same weight—the job may be more important than the dinner—and that you’re spinning your wheels going down rabbit holes. Next, take concrete action to move forward: Talk to someone who works at the potential job about their experience or ask for a follow-up interview to answer your lingering questions; say what you want to say to your partner, and if they get defensive, back off but circle back later to mop up and clarify. Only by moving forward, no matter how small the baby steps, will you discover what to do next.

You worry about having future regrets.

This is a variation of the other. Even if you know what you want to do, you worry about the results in the future: You’ll take the job, but you’ll wind up hating it; you’ll talk to your partner, but it won’t go well, and your bringing it up will only add fuel to the emotional fire, eventually leading to divorce.

Consequences: Obsessing all future worst-case scenarios undermines your confidence in your decision.

Solution: Just as it’s easy to go down rabbit holes of information, you can do the same with future worst-case scenarios. The reality check is that not only can’t you control the future, but your past is constantly being recreated through the lens of the present: If two years from now you’re happy at the new job, you’ll not only pat yourself on the back for making a good decision but also think you should have switched jobs sooner. If you’re miserable two years from now, you’ll wish you had stayed at your old job. It’s a moving target. The best you can do is the best you can do right now. You can only deal with future problems if and when they arise.

You worry that others will judge your decisions.

I’ve met folks who struggle with decisions because they worry that “other people” won’t approve of their choices. This fear is usually part of a learned childhood hypervigilance where “I’m happy only if the whole world is happy.”

Consequences: The thinking is understandable, but the solution is not. You can’t be sensitive to the whole world. With that large an audience looking over your shoulder, you get paralyzed.

Solution: You may care what those close to you think, and you want to be assertive and help them understand why you’re doing what you’re doing, but agreement isn’t always necessary. Worrying that you need to explain yourself to those outside your intimate circle pushes you off course from what you want; you wind up living their lives, not yours.

The underlying driver is anxiety.

Indecisiveness is a solution to the problem of creating the right outcome, whether it is about making your present plan work out the way you want, having no regrets in the future, or making everyone happy. The best you can do is make the best decision in the present and see what happens. If it works out, great—good for you. If not, it’s not because you screwed up, but you now have a new problem, and hopefully you’ve learned what not to do. Take each problem and each decision one at a time.

The key is seeing anxiety as the driver, stepping back, and realizing that your anxious brain is taking over—causing you to obsess and fall into little-kid emotions and irrational thinking. Stop doing what your anxious brain tells you to do; realize that your thoughts are running you rather than you running your thoughts.

Learning to be decisive is learning not to let anxiety run your life, learning that there are no mistakes, focusing on doing the best you can right now, recognizing that all decisions are not equally important, and accepting that you can control only this moment.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/fixing-families/202409/have-a-hard-time-making-decisions-how-to-be-more-decisive

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 20, 2024

1. Largest Fed Pause Rally in History Before 50 bps. Cut

 

 


2. Will Lower Rates Spark Small Caps?

R2K streak. The Russell 2000 has now risen for 7 days in a row, a feat accomplished only 27 other times while also trading above the 200SMA. Forward returns have been mixed.

SentimenTrader


3. Fed Wants to Close Gap

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


4. 247 BPS by 2026

Irrelevant Investor Blo


5. Gold History After First Fed Cuts

Gold vs. first cut. “After a cut, there has only been one time, 1998, when gold has trended significantly lower after a rate cut throughout the next year, and even then, close to the one-year mark, it surged as the Dot Com crash started.”

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog/


6. Fed Cuts Outside Recession History

Capital Group

 


7. Household Assets Elevated vs. Liabilities


8. 30-Year Mortgage Getting Close to Breaking 6% Mark


 

9. American People Dislikes Federal Government, Advertising and Pharma


10. The Daily Stoic

As we work and achieve, we pile up titles and money. We accumulate assets and influence. We build a life, as they say. And a life is made up of things: Our job. Our house. Our car. Our relationships. Our reputation.
Looking around at what we possess, what we’ve poured so much sweat and blood into, is an immensely rewarding experience. As Margaret Atwood writes in a beautiful poem,
The moment when, after many years
of hard work and a long voyage
you stand in the centre of your room,
house, half-acre, square mile, island, country,
knowing at last how you got there,
and say, I own this,
But the Stoic knows that we never really own anything. All that we possess in this life, Marcus Aurelius says, even life itself, is really ours only in trust. We are renters. Our lives are here on loan…loans that can get called in at any time. We can be fired. Someone can dislodge our seemingly dominant market position. A loved one can leave. People die.
That’s why Margaret Atwood warns against the pride and satisfaction of surveying one’s possessions. The moment you do that, she says, nature rebels. Almost out of spite, they feel the need to rebuke you for your pride.
No, they whisper. You own nothing.
You were a visitor, time after time
climbing the hill, planting the flag, proclaiming.
We never belonged to you.
You never found us.
It was always the other way round.
None of us own anything. Everything is constantly in flux. What we have today may be gone tomorrow—we ourselves may be gone tomorrow. Understand that. Appreciate everything accordingly. Be grateful and humble…or life will rebuke you. Fate will remind you who is in charge and nature will reclaim what is hers.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 19, 2024

1. Intel is Flat on 20-Year Performance

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

INTC Chart $50 to $20 since end of 2023


2. Trump Media Trades Back to Lows


3. Hedge Fund Titans Breed a $14 Billion Pack of Startup Cubs

By Nishant Kumar

Once, it was Julian Robertson, the founder of Tiger Management, who got to play godfather to a generation of hedge fund stars.
Now, it’s Ken Griffin’s Citadel and Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management who are taking up that role — whether they want to or not.
With the multistrategy hedge fund titans closed to outside cash amid a dearth of talent able to manage their money, Citadel and Millennium traders are seizing the chance to go it alone. And investors are backing them with an avalanche of assets.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-09-17/hedge-fund-startups-millennium-citadel-traders-raise-14-billion-for-spinoffs?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


4. Gold Decouples From Real Interest Rates

Commodities: Gold remains decoupled from real rates amid extensive central bank buying.

Source: The Daily Shot


5. Venture Capital Liquidity

WSJ By Yuliya Chernova

https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-venture-capital-keep-itself-afloat-41ec1a04


6. Healthcare and Auto Insurance vs. Inflation

@Charlie Bilello


7. XLY Consumer Discretionary One Tick from New Highs

Recession not showing up in this ETF…AMZN, TSLA, HD 50% of holdings.


8. Weekly mortgage demand surges 14% higher as interest rates hit two-year low

Diana Olick-CNBC

Key Points

  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $766,550 or less decreased to 6.15% from 6.29%
  • Applications to refinance a home loan jumped 24% from the previous week and were 127% higher than the same week one year ago.
  • Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home increased 5% for the week but were still 0.4% lower than the same week one year ago.

Total mortgage application volume rose 14.2% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $766,550 or less decreased to 6.15% from 6.29%, with points increasing to 0.56 from 0.55, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the lowest rate since September 2022 and is 116 basis points lower than it was the same week one year ago. 
“Application activity was up significantly last week, as market expectations of a rate cut from the Fed pulled mortgage rates lower,” said Joel Kan, an economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/weekly-mortgage-demand-surges-as-interest-rates-hit-two-year-low.html


9. The Federal Government Owns 27.4% of the Land in America. 80% of Nevada and 62% of Alaska….


10. Baby Boomer Housing Market Statistics

List with Clever

  • More than half of boomers who currently own a home (54%) never plan to sell it and hope to live in it for the rest of their lives. 
  • 90% of boomer homeowners have concerns about homeownership as they age, with maintenance/upkeep issues and rising costs the most common. 
  • Nearly two-thirds of boomers who own homes (65%) expect to profit more than $100,000 when selling their home, while 40% expect to clear $200,000 or more. 
  • More than three-quarters of boomer homeowners (76%) say owning a home is the primary reason they’re financially secure.  
  • Almost half of current boomer homeowners (46%) would consider themselves failures if they didn’t own a home.   
  • Fewer than half of boomers (47%) required a double income to purchase their home.
  • Half of boomers who have owned a home (50%) bought their first one for $75,000 or less, while almost two-thirds (64%) paid less than $100,000.
  • 42% of boomers believe younger generations had an easier time than they did buying a home in their 20s. 
  • Only 6% of boomer homeowners say their biggest challenge when buying their first place was that homes were too expensive. 
  • When factoring in inflation, just half of boomers (50%) believe they would still be able to afford a home today.
  • Among boomers who have never owned a home, two-thirds (66%) say they regret never achieving that milestone.
    •  Nearly two-thirds of this group (63%) say they simply couldn’t afford to buy a home.
  • About half of boomers who once owned a home but don’t now (47%) wouldn’t recommend homeownership to younger generations, but barely a quarter of current boomer homeowners (27%) feel this way.
  • Boomers view themselves as the generation least responsible for the affordable housing crisis, a view held by 41% of respondents.
  • 69% of boomers feel the government should do more to help first-time home buyers afford a house.
  • About two-thirds of respondents (65%) believe America would be a better place to live if more people prioritized homeownership.
  • 87% of boomers think buying a home was part of the American dream when they were younger, but only 73% think it still is.
  • 57% of boomers believe younger generations could afford homes if they tried harder, and 64% believe younger generations could be homeowners if they were more responsible.

https://listwithclever.com/research/baby-boomers-housing-market-2024/#never  Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 17, 2024

1. Commentary on Wed. Rate Cut

Tom Lee Fundstrat
If the Fed does indeed cut rates at the FOMC on Wednesday, as widely expected, the bearishly inclined are warning that this could actually be bad for stocks. They note (correctly) that historically, stocks have fallen half the time immediately after the Fed makes its first cut of a cycle. However, Head of Data Science “Tireless” Ken Xuan and his team took a deeper look historical cycles and came to a different conclusion. Examining the last 11 Fed “first cuts,” Xuan found that five of them took place with a recessionary backdrop. The other six came during a non-recessionary, “no landing” scenario such as the one in which we currently find ourselves. The difference in historic post-cut win ratios between the two categories is significant and best illustrated by our Chart of the Week.

https://fundstrat.com/


2. Gold Miners

Gold making new highs…leveraged junior gold miners 50day crossing above 200day to upside.


3. Defensive Consumer Staples ETF Trading at 25x P/E

Looks like a tech stock chart for last 12 months.


4. Defensive Sector YTD Utilities XLU +23% vs. XLK (tech) +17%


5. Sample- The Power of Dividends

Bespoke Investment Group
Altria has increased its dividend for 54 consecutive years, making it one of the longest-running Dividend Aristocrats.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/altria-group-mo


6. Starlink 61% of Global Satellites

Perplexity AI

https://www.perplexity.ai/


7. Foreign Direct Investments in China Go Negative

WSJ By Yoko Kubota and Liza Lin

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/western-firms-that-flocked-to-china-are-now-pulling-back-ea2f3c27


8. India 50% Internet Connectivity

 


9. Loan to Value of American Mortgages….Low Leverage

If people are already in a home they have a lot of equity. That’s proven in this chart which shows that the Loan-to-Value ratio for mortgages is 48%.
That’s down from 70% just over 10 years.

Source: Mike Simonsen


10. Know Thy Time: Peter Drucker’s Strategy to Become More Effective -Darius Foroux

The reason I research productivity is simple. I think that a productive life equals happy life.

Also, if you’re more productive than average people, you’ll advance faster in your career. You learn more. You do more. And eventually are rewarded more.

Now, productivity is a very generic term. Personally, I prefer to use the word effectiveness.

Because productivity doesn’t necessarily mean that you get the right things done. It just means you get a lot of stuff done. But that’s not what matters.

Effectiveness, however, refers to getting the right things done. It’s basically a polite word for “getting shit done.”

And if you want to do your job well, earn money, live a meaningful life, learn skills, you HAVE to get shit done.

Results matter the most.
You might work for 50 hours a week, but if you don’t experience any growth personally, emotionally, financially, you’re not effective.
People often ask me, “where do I begin?” To answer that question, I want to share one exercise that I use with companies and people who hire me to improve their effectiveness.

It’s an exercise that I picked up from Peter Drucker’s The Effective Executive. To me, Drucker is the first and best thinker when it comes to effectiveness for knowledge workers.

Much of the books, articles, productivity tools, and productivity apps you see these days are all in a way influenced by Drucker.

For instance, the term “deep work” (coined by Cal Newport) is currently very popular. But if you read The Effective Executive, which is written in 1967, Drucker talks about the same concept.

He says that if you want to get things done, you have to allocate large chunks of (uninterrupted) time to your work. Drucker says:
“To be effective, every knowledge worker, and especially every executive, needs to be able to dispose of time in fairly large chunks. To have small dribs and drabs of time at his disposal will not be sufficient even if the total is an impressive number of hours.”

As you can see, my appreciation for Drucker goes deep. That’s why I read much of his work, and also apply it in my life and work.
What you will find next is a simple exercise from The Effective Executive (which I modified slightly to make it easier) that you can apply to become more effective.

Step 1: Know thy time
I often hear people saying: “I don’t know what’s wrong with me. I keep procrastinating.”

My question is: “Do you know thy time?”
If you don’t measure your time, it’s tough to stop procrastination or improve your productivity. Because if you want to manage your time better, you have to know where it goes first.

Your memory is not sufficient. If I asked you what you were doing exactly one week at this time, would you have an answer? There you go.

How do you know your time? Keep an activity log.

Before I even have a real session with clients, I often ask them to keep an activity log for two weeks. An activity log is exactly what you imagine — an hour by hour record of what you’re doing throughout the day.

The specific method you use for your activity log doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is that you want to keep a record for at least two weeks. Preferably, you want a whole month of recorded activities.

I just keep a pen and a notepad on my desk and every hour I write down the time and what I’ve done during the past hour. It’s important to keep the notebook visible, so you don’t forget.

Step 2: Identify the non-productive work
This step is actually very simple. I just have one question for you:
“Go through all the recurring activities in your log one by one. What would happen if you would stop doing them?”

If the answer is: “All hell breaks loose.” Don’t change anything.
But if your answer is: “Nothing would happen.” You’ve hit gold.
We all do activities that have ZERO return. I call those activities time-wasters.

Step 3: Eliminate the time-wasters
Boom. That’s it. Know where your time goes. Identify the critical tasks from the trivial tasks in your life. And cut the trivial, time-wasting, tasks.

“That simple?” Yes.

If you want to be a super-effective person, you regularly keep a log. You don’t have to keep a log for 365 days a year.

Instead, do two stretches of two-three weeks a year. That’s enough to keep track of your time and identify new time-wasters.

Also, the additional benefit of such a simple exercise is that it forces you to think about your daily routine.

Often, we start time-wasting activities, and they become habits. And if you don’t become aware of the pointless behavior, it’s difficult to break those bad habits.

I’ve found this exercise to be one of the most powerful things in productivity.

Start now. Your activity log probably looks something like this:

  • (insert time) — Read Darius Foroux’s article about keeping a time-log and started my own time-log.
  • (insert time) — Turned off my phone and got back to (whatever you were working on).
  • (insert time) — Browsed the news, Facebook, Instagram. And watched YouTube videos. (Be honest with yourself. Shit happens).
  • (insert time) — responded to emails.

Great. I’m happy to see that you started. Now keep going for another two weeks.

Grade inflation at American universities is out of control. The statistics speak for themselves. In 1950, the average GPA at Harvard was estimated at 2.6 out of 4. By 2003, it had risen to 3.4. Today, it stands at 3.8.

The more elite the college, the more lenient the standards. At Yale, for example, 80% of grades awarded in 2023 were As or A minuses. But the problem is also prevalent at less selective colleges. Across all four-year colleges in the U.S., the most commonly awarded grade is now an A.

Some professors and departments, especially in STEM disciplines, have managed to uphold more stringent criteria. A few advanced courses attract such a self-selecting cohort of students that virtually all of them deserve recognition for genuinely excellent work. But for the most part, the grading scheme at many institutions has effectively become useless. An A has stopped being a mark of special academic achievement.

If everyone outside hard-core engineering, math or pre-med courses can easily get an A, the whole system loses meaning. It fails to make distinctions between different levels of achievement or to motivate students to work hard on their academic pursuits. All the while, it allows students to pretend—to themselves and to others—that they are performing exceptionally well. Worse, this system creates perverse incentives. To name but one, it actively punishes those who take risks by enrolling in truly challenging courses.

All of this contributes to the strikingly poor record of American colleges in actually educating their students. As Richard Arum and Josipa Roksa showed in their 2011 book “Academically Adrift,” the time that the average full-time college student spent studying dropped by half in the five decades after 1960, falling to about a dozen hours a week. A clear majority of college students “showed no significant progress on tests of critical thinking, complex reasoning and writing,” with about half failing to make any improvements at all in their first two years of higher education.

In one of the oldest jokes about the Soviet Union, a worker says “We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us.” To an uncomfortable degree, American universities now work in a similar fashion: Students pretend to do their work, and academics pretend to grade them. It’s high time for a radical reboot of a broken system.

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/college-grades-have-become-acharade-its-time-to-abolish-them-ee4eb3fe

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 16, 2024

1. Forward P/E COST 51x vs. NVDA 42x

COST more expensive than NVDA on forward P/E ratio


2. S&P Sector Valuations vs. Earnings Growth

Captial Group


3. Semis vs. Software

After underperforming Semis by nearly 5 standard deviations over the 100 days through early June, Software’s relative performance is mean reverting.

@datatrekmb


4. Fed Funds Spread


5. Spreads Still Tight -Ned Davis


6. Only Fans Creators $15B in Revenues Over 5 Years

MarketEar Blog

https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


7. Japanese Yen Update

The yen carry trade set off volatility earlier this month…Yen chart 50day thru 200day to upside.


8. Why Do Americans Love Housing?


9. Demand for Wireless Data Hits Record Highs -Chartr Blog


If you’ve tried to buy any kind of electronic good recently you’ve probably found a version that can connect to your phone and has an app that you need to download (which is usually terrible), with everything from smart watches, to smart light bulbs, to smart fridges, to self-driving cars now connected to the internet. Indeed, companies continue to produce connected versions of devices which, for years, functioned well without them.
But, in fairness to the people behind those products, all of the evidence shows one thing: that America loves being online and staying connected.

Indeed, according to wireless industry association CTIA’s annual survey, Americans used 100.1 trillion megabytes of wireless data in 2023, nearly double the traffic that was driven in 2021 and more than the amount used in all the years from 2010 to 2018 combined. That’s a lot of watching, scrolling, working, texting, and — realistically — even more watching.

The good news is that all of that mobile connectivity is a lot cheaper than it used to be. According to the report, Americans now pay $.002 per MB of wireless data — a 97% decrease from a decade prior and a 50% decrease since 2020, when the average cost of consumer goods and services began to soar.
The uptick has been driven in large part by the rollout of 5G, which the CTIA estimates to be used by almost 40% of all wireless connections today. The rise in wireless data usage comes amidst an ongoing standoff in Congress over how to find new spectrum, per Reuters.


10. Larry Silverstein Spent Years Tussling With the City to Rebuild the World Trade Center. Now He’s Ready to Talk About It

WSJ By Yascha Mounk

Grade inflation at American universities is out of control. The statistics speak for themselves. In 1950, the average GPA at Harvard was estimated at 2.6 out of 4. By 2003, it had risen to 3.4. Today, it stands at 3.8.

The more elite the college, the more lenient the standards. At Yale, for example, 80% of grades awarded in 2023 were As or A minuses. But the problem is also prevalent at less selective colleges. Across all four-year colleges in the U.S., the most commonly awarded grade is now an A.

Some professors and departments, especially in STEM disciplines, have managed to uphold more stringent criteria. A few advanced courses attract such a self-selecting cohort of students that virtually all of them deserve recognition for genuinely excellent work. But for the most part, the grading scheme at many institutions has effectively become useless. An A has stopped being a mark of special academic achievement.

If everyone outside hard-core engineering, math or pre-med courses can easily get an A, the whole system loses meaning. It fails to make distinctions between different levels of achievement or to motivate students to work hard on their academic pursuits. All the while, it allows students to pretend—to themselves and to others—that they are performing exceptionally well. Worse, this system creates perverse incentives. To name but one, it actively punishes those who take risks by enrolling in truly challenging courses.

All of this contributes to the strikingly poor record of American colleges in actually educating their students. As Richard Arum and Josipa Roksa showed in their 2011 book “Academically Adrift,” the time that the average full-time college student spent studying dropped by half in the five decades after 1960, falling to about a dozen hours a week. A clear majority of college students “showed no significant progress on tests of critical thinking, complex reasoning and writing,” with about half failing to make any improvements at all in their first two years of higher education.

In one of the oldest jokes about the Soviet Union, a worker says “We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us.” To an uncomfortable degree, American universities now work in a similar fashion: Students pretend to do their work, and academics pretend to grade them. It’s high time for a radical reboot of a broken system.

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/college-grades-have-become-acharade-its-time-to-abolish-them-ee4eb3fe

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 12, 2024

1. NVDA Stock is About One Thing…Earnings Keeping Up

Look at the share price of Nvidia relative to earnings growth:

Found at Ben Carlson Blog https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/09/can-this-continue/


2. Sector Earnings


3. Sentiment Hit Bearish Levels in Last Week’s Sell Off -Investor Intelligence

Investor Intelligence

“Bulls are leaving the building: II bears are rising as bulls drop to lowest level of 2024. S&P 500 has struggled to make sustained upside progress over the past decade when the Bull – Bear Spread has been less than 20%.”

https://www.dailychartbook.com/s/dc-lite


4. CNN Fear and Greed Index


5. Follow Up to Monday’s Uranium Comments

ZeroHedge
Uranium stocks jumped in the early US cash session after Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the government to review possible measures to restrict exports of strategic raw materials, such as nickel, titanium, and uranium, in retaliation for Western sanctions.

In markets, uranium stocks, such as CCJ, UEC, URA, and URNM, jumped between 5% and 7%. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/uranium-stocks-ignite-after-putin-asks-govt-weigh-export-restrictions-critical


6. U.S. Education Degrees In Nuclear Dropping

WSJ 
Between 2012 and 2022, the number of students graduating with bachelor’s degrees in nuclear engineering in the U.S. fell by 25%, according to the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, with the class of 2022 seeing only 454 students graduate with a degree in the field. 

At the same time, the nuclear industry is facing a maturing workforce, with 17% of workers in the industry over the age of 55 and 60% aged between 30 and 54, according to the 2024 U.S. Energy and Employment report. The report also highlighted that 23% of workers were aged under 30, compared with 29% for other energy workers. By Yusuf Khan

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shortfall-in-young-engineers-threatens-nuclear-renaissance-b63c6642?mod=business_lead_pos3

 


7. Job Openings Still in Excess of Available Workers

From Advisor Perspectives Blog

Demographic Deficits by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust Recent work from the McKinsey Global Institute clearly illustrates this progression. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis left many out of work, and the slow recovery from that episode kept ratios of job openings to job seekers very low. But starting in 2015, labor market capacity began declining. The pandemic years created a rude interruption, but the long-term trend has been re-established.

In several large countries, job openings are still well in excess of available workers. McKinsey finds that skills mismatches do not explain much of the gap; job vacancy rates are highest in occupations that are at the lower end of the wage scale, and should therefore be within the reach of most of those seeking work.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/09/12/deficits-demographic


8. Nonresidential Construction Spending Hits Another Record

Construction Spending Squeaks to Record amid Eyepopping Boom in Spending on Factories while Residential Construction Tries to Dig Out of Last Year’s Slump


9. NFL 21M Per Game Viewership Record

BY  JOE REEDY
LOS ANGELES (AP) — The NFL averaged 21.0 million viewers per game during the league’s opening week, making it the most-watched Week 1 on record.

The league and Nielsen said Wednesday morning that the per-game average on TV and digital platforms was a 12% increase over last year. Nielsen began electronic measurement of viewing in 1988.

All told, 123 million people saw at least part of one game, its highest total for an opening week since 2019.

“A great start with the viewership. It was great to be back and a lot to be excited about,” said Hans Schroeder, the NFL’s executive vice president of media distribution.

NBC had the most-watched game, with defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City’s 27-20 victory over Baltimore in last Thursday’s opener averaging 29.2 million on TV and digital. It was NBC’s second-largest regular season game since 2006, when it acquired the “Sunday Night Football” package. The Sunday night game between Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams, which the Lions won 26-20 in overtime, averaged 22.7 million, a 3% jump from last year.

 

https://apnews.com/article/nfl-ratings-brady-01fce6b89c7d738c21badda85901e33c


10. Larry Silverstein Spent Years Tussling With the City to Rebuild the World Trade Center. Now He’s Ready to Talk About It

Inc.com 

In his new book, the veteran real estate developer recounts the decades spent trying to reclaim the NYC skyline after tragedy.

 
BY SAM BLUM, SENIOR WRITER @SAMMBLUM
He’s one of the lucky ones: Larry Silverstein narrowly skirted disaster on September 11, 2001. 

As the property developer has recounted numerous times over the last 23 years, the terrorist attacks that brought down the Twin Towers occurred just a few weeks after Silverstein Properties signed a 99-year lease on the World Trade Center in New York City. 

That morning, he was supposed to be eating breakfast at Windows on the World, the restaurant on the 106th and 107th floors of the North Tower. But before he left, his wife Klara reminded him he was due uptown for a dermatology appointment. 

Unimaginable chaos and tragedy ensued. Terrorists hijacked two commercial airliners and flew one into each of the towers. The tallest buildings in New York eventually collapsed, laying in a gargantuan heap of smoldering rubble, and Silverstein made it his remaining life’s mission to rebuild them swiftly. Silverstein’s efforts to rise from the detritus of Ground Zero are recounted in his new book, The Rising: The Twenty-Year Battle to Rebuild the World Trade Center. 

It’s a story rife with political infighting among a rotating cast of 21st-century New York powerbrokers. Across the mayoral administrations of Rudy Giuliani, Michael Bloomberg, and Bill de Blasio, and governorships of George Pataki and Andrew Cuomo, the book casts Silverstein as the hero who sought to heal deep national wounds and bring the NYC skyline back to life. Others criticized

Silverstein for tussling with insurance companies and accused him of profiteering during an emotionally charged era in U.S. history. 
Silverstein, now 93, sat down with Inc. to discuss the new book and where he thinks the commercial real estate market is headed from 2024 onward–an era that is far different from the one that saw rebuilding efforts begin. 
(This conversation has been edited for length and clarity). 

Why does the book describe rebuilding efforts as a “battle?” 
There was no shortage of naysayers, people telling me this would never happen. After 9/11, they said nobody would ever want to go back down here. People would leave their residences. People would leave their commercial spaces. And that’s exactly what happened. Lower Manhattan was an unmitigated disaster.
I also came to the realization that the insurance companies were not going to pay me their obligations under the policies, for which I paid some significant premiums. And they said totally flat out building back here would never succeed. Therefore don’t bother, and forget about getting compensation from them. 
They even offered me some kind of monetary advantage if I just picked up and left. And I said, “I’ve been a New Yorker all my life. You just expect me to just walk away from my obligation to New York? I can’t do that.” So I said, “Everybody has their price. My price is: Get on with the rebuilding and do it as quickly as possible.” So we ended up with five years of litigation. That was a terrible time.

Why was there no time to wait in the rebuilding process? 
We needed to bring energy back to Lower Manhattan. I had acquired the site for the original 7 World Trade Center from the Port Authority in 1981; it was the last building to come down on 9/11. And under that building was a Con Edison substation that provided all electricity to Lower Manhattan. 
Eugene McGrath, who was the CEO of Con Edison, called me and said, “We’ve got to get the substation rebuilt as quickly as possible, because we’re now supplying Lower Manhattan with emergency generators; they’re constantly subject to failure.”
In order to get power back to Lower Manhattan, we had no time for plans, no time for specifications, no time for contracts, no time for agreements, no time for anything. I mean, we had to start building, literally, on a handshake. [Editor’s note: Inc. and its parent company are tenants in the rebuilt 7 World Trade.]

Given everything that went into the rebuilding process, how do you feel looking up at the World Trade Center buildings today? 
When the buildings had collapsed, there was nothing there. There was massive debris, terrible, terrible smog, terrible smoke, terrible fumes rising, and the odor of burning flesh. It was just horrible.
But in the most amazing turn of events, people started coming down to Ground Zero days after the attacks, to search for missing people. First from New York, but then from around the country, to try to help rescue people who they assumed could still be alive, but who they had no relationships with. They were just human beings, trying to help other human beings. 
And so, thinking about that, and then looking out at what we’ve been able to create to replace the Twin Towers, gives me a feeling of accomplishment. I was enormously hopeful that we could build something vastly superior to what had been here, originally.

How has the WTC, lower Manhattan area changed since 2001? 
Before 9/11, there was nothing here. After six o’clock at night, it was dead. You could roll a bowling ball down Wall Street and hit nothing. Nobody around: no cars, no vehicles, no trucks, no cabs. It was a dead community.
Now, It’s bustling with human beings. It’s the number of people down here visiting, walking through the Memorial Park. I can tell you, 27 percent of the people who work down here live down here. It’s the highest work-to-residence ratio in the entire United States. 

What’s going on with 2 World Trade Center, which is the last building slated for construction? 
Keep an eye on the press. That’s a no comment from us. 

The pandemic cratered demand for commercial office space. Plus, we have a housing crisis in this country. How can we use unoccupied office space for people who need a place to live? 
Part of working in the business today is the realization that some of the buildings are no longer functional as office space. The Rudin family built 55 Broad Street, maybe 70 years ago, and it became the headquarters building for Goldman Sachs. But Goldman left for a bigger office, and the family couldn’t find a corporate tenant. 
So what we ended up doing is buying the building from the Rudins with the thought of converting it from office occupancy to residential. Frankly, if we are successful in converting 55 Broad Street–and I think we will be–I could see us doing the same with many other commercial buildings. It’s something that will affect New York in a very positive way. In the future, it’ll change neighborhoods very significantly, and create a better environment.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 11, 2024

1. Utilities and Staples Beating Tech in 2024

The more cyclical Technology ($XLK) and Consumer Discretionary ($XLY) sectors are now underperforming the more defensive Utilities ($XLU) and Consumer Staples ($XLP) sectors on the year.


2. PLTR Hitting New Highs-Peter Thiel Selling $1B of Shares

Palantir disclosed in a regulatory form in August that Rivendell 7 LLC, an investment vehicle owned by co-founder and Chairman Peter Thiel, on May 15 adopted a so-called Rule 10b5-1 plan allowing for the sale of as many as 28,590,737 shares by Dec. 31, 2025, or earlier.


3. GOOGL Antitrust

Morningbrew

BIG TECH
The antitrust trial that could upend advertising

 

They say lightning doesn’t strike twice, but the Department of Justice certainly does. Google reported to court yesterday to defend itself against monopoly allegations for the second time in less than a year in a new case that has the potential to strip the world’s largest online advertiser of a chunk of its ad business.
Hair of the DOJ. About a month after a federal judge decried Google’s search engine dominance as anti-competitive, regulators are now trying to prove that Google unfairly dominates the digital ad space, too. The DOJ alleges:

  • Google’s trifecta of software products for ad sellers, ad buyers, and real-time ad auctioning account for 91%, 40% to 80%, and at least 50% of their respective markets.
  • Cornering both the supply and demand sides lets Google keep $0.36 from every dollar spent on ad deals it brokers.

Google says…its ad tech is successful because it’s the best. The search giant also panned the DOJ for only focusing on website ads, since the market has expanded to mobile apps, social media, and streaming.
But…regulators say YouTube CEO Neal Mohan will testify that Google has sometimes required ad sellers to either use all or none of its tools, steering them away from competitors.
Looking ahead…the DOJ wants Google to sever its popular Ad Manager services from the rest of its business, which some industry experts say could level the field and lead to better data privacy regulations in online advertising.—M

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

GOOGL -21% from July Highs….Close Below 200-day


4. Walgreens Worse Performing Stock S&P 500 2024….-67%


5. Gasoline Futures Sub $2 Per Gallon

Energy: US gasoline futures are now trading below $2/gal.

Source: The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/


6. Small Business Optimism Index Disappoints

Bespoke Investment Group

Looking under the hood of the report, there wasn’t much to like. Of the inputs to the Optimism Index, only two rose month over month: Plans to Make Capital Outlays and Job Openings as Hard to Fill. The latter of those is by far the strongest category of the report with the August reading in the 92nd percentile of all months. Outside of that, there are four inputs to the optimism index and another three non-input categories that now rank in the bottom decile of readings. Some of those like Actual Earnings Changes and Expectations for Higher Real Sales also fell significantly month over month with bottom decile monthly moves.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/horrible-small-business-earnings


7. India Now Has the 3rd Highest Number of VC Backed Unicorns ($1B valuation) -Pitchbook

https://pitchbook.com/


8. The Danger of Chasing High Dividend Payers


9. Golden Visas—I Heard this Mentioned on Prof G Markets Podcast so Checked it Out

Henley Global 
An Overview of Golden Visas-In its most basic form, golden visa acquisition, or residence by investment and citizenship by investment, denotes the process whereby qualified, vetted candidates are granted either full residence or citizenship rights in exchange for a defined economic contribution to the host country. Golden visa programs give high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) the option of physically relocating to a favorable jurisdiction — either now or upon retirement — and becoming residents of that state with full legal rights, including the right to live, work, study, and receive healthcare in that country.
Benefits of holding a golden visa-A golden visa provides investors and their families with access to new markets and a host of business, career, educational, healthcare, tax, and lifestyle opportunities on a worldwide scale, for both present and future generations. Many golden visa programs allow the successful applicant to apply for citizenship after a few years of residence, such as the Portugal Golden Residence Permit Program, which offers citizenship eligibility after five years. The Greece Golden Visa Program allows investors to apply for citizenship after seven years, and the Italy Residence by Investment Program after 10 years.
Providing increased optionality worldwide along with the ability to hedge against potential risk and volatility, golden visas allow HNWIs and their families to:

  • Secure an alternative safe haven
  • Enrich and expand their lifestyle and business opportunities
  • Enjoy a high quality of life and access to excellent infrastructure
  • Access world-class healthcare at leading facilities
  • Attend first-rate educational institutions

Golden visa countries
There is now golden visa legislation in place in over 100 countries around the world, spanning five continents. Over 60% of EU member states have programs that are functional and active, with the UK and the US having among the world’s longest running golden visa programs. Other popular golden visa countries include Portugal, Spain, Greece, Malta, Australia, Canada, Italy, and the UK. Discover the full list of more than 40 golden visa programs that Henley & Partners promotes. 

https://www.henleyglobal.com/residence-investment/golden-visa


10. How to Tell a Great Story -Seth Godin

Ode: How to tell a great story
Chris Fralic reminded me of this piece I wrote for Ode.

Great stories succeed because they are able to capture the imagination of large or important audiences.

A great story is true. Not necessarily because it’s factual, but because it’s consistent and authentic. Consumers are too good at sniffing out inconsistencies for a marketer to get away with a story that’s just slapped on.
Great stories make a promise. They promise fun, safety or a shortcut. The promise needs to be bold and audacious. It’s either exceptional or it’s not worth listening to.

\Great stories are trusted. Trust is the scarcest resource we’ve got left. No one trusts anyone. People don’t trust the beautiful women ordering vodka at the corner bar (they’re getting paid by the liquor company). People don’t trust the spokespeople on commercials (who exactly is Rula Lenska?). And they certainly don’t trust the companies that make pharmaceuticals (Vioxx, apparently, can kill you). As a result, no marketer succeeds in telling a story unless he has earned the credibility to tell that story.

Great stories are subtle. Surprisingly, the fewer details a marketer spells out, the more powerful the story becomes. Talented marketers understand that allowing people to draw their own conclusions is far more effective than announcing the punch line.

Great stories happen fast. First impressions are far more powerful than we give them credit for.

Great stories don’t always need eight-page color brochures or a face-to-face meeting. Either you are ready to listen or you aren’t.

Great stories don’t appeal to logic, but they often appeal to our senses. Pheromones aren’t a myth. People decide if they like someone after just a sniff.

Great stories are rarely aimed at everyone. Average people are good at ignoring you. Average people have too many different points of view about life and average people are by and large satisfied. If you need to water down your story to appeal to everyone, it will appeal to no one. The most effective stories match the world view of a tiny audience—and then that tiny audience spreads the story.

Great stories don’t contradict themselves. If your restaurant is in the right location but had the wrong menu, you lose. If your art gallery carries the right artists but your staff is made up of rejects from a used car lot, you lose. Consumers are clever and they’ll see through your deceit at once.

Most of all, great stories agree with our world view. The best stories don’t teach people anything new. Instead, the best stories agree with what the audience already believes and makes the members of the audience feel smart and secure when reminded how right they were in the first place.

Ode: How to tell a great story

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 10, 2024

1. Probability of 50 Basis Point Cut

Fundstrat
As implied by Fed Funds futures trading, market consensus regarding the Federal Reserve’s rate cut plans for September 18 is now split between expectations for a 25 bp cut or a 50 bp cut. As shown by our Chart of the Week, implied odds of a 50 bp cut plunged from 65% to 27% on Friday after the jobs report and is one possible reason why stocks also fell on Friday. Nevertheless, this is still a dovish Fed. As Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton notes, “If we look further out, the market anticipates roughly 200 basis points of cuts by next June, expecting the Fed to start taking rates down quite sharply.” He asked rhetorically, “Would you really want to see a 50 bp cut at the next FOMC meeting? That arguably would mean the Fed knows something that we all don’t, because that’s a very big cut in an election year.” 

Chart of the Week


2. History of Yield Curve Inversion Ending

No idea what happens but interesting note from Charlie Bilello

@Charlie Bilello The longest yield curve inversion in history has ended with the 10-year Treasury yield (3.71%) now 6 bps above the 2-year yield (3.65%).

 

What does this mean for the economy?

Historically, the flip back to a positive sloping curve after a long inversion has occurred near the start of recessions:

-March 2007 flip back: recession began 10 months later, in January 2008.

-December 2000 flip back: recession began 4 months later, in April 2001.

-June 1989 flip back: recession began 13 months later, in August 1990.

-October 1981 flip back: recession began 2 months earlier, in August 1981.

-May 1980 flip back: recession began 3 months earlier, in February 1980.


3. 10 Year Treasury Yield Hit 3.36%


4. Bitcoin ETFs Posting Streak of Outflows

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted their longest run of daily net outflows since listing at the start of the year, part of a wider retreat from riskier assets in a challenging period for global markets.  Investors pulled close to $1.2 billion in total from the group of 12 ETFs over the eight days through Sept. 6, data compiled by Bloomberg show

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/


5. AI Venture Raises Over $1B

Market Ear Blog

https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


6. Large Value Outperforming Large Growth Q3

Christine Idzelis-Marketwatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-stocks-outperform-this-quarter-as-growth-equities-struggle-in-downtrend-dc089e81?mod=home-page


7. Nuclear Generates 18.6% of U.S. Electricity

Barrons

America’s 94 nuclear reactors generate 18.6% of U.S. electricity, enough to power 72 million homes. They’re the largest single source of carbon-free energy in the country. But nuclear’s share of total electricity generation has been ebbing for years, after peaking above 20% in the 1990s. A dozen U.S. reactors shut down from 2012 to 2021.

The tide is turning. Six reactors slated to close from 2021 to 2025 have been saved through state and federal action. And three reactors that were closed and decommissioned may be restarted, which has never happened before. Gates’ nuclear company, TerraPower, is preparing the site of a retired coal plant in Wyoming for a new reactor with more than $2 billion in government financing, and two Altman-backed companies are testing nuclear technologies. The Biden administration has announced a goal to triple the nation’s nuclear capacity by 2050.

 


8. Cameco Nuclear Stock -35% from Highs

50day thru 200day to downside in August


9. Global Percentage of Homes with Air Conditioners

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
According to data from the International Energy Agency, 90% of homes in the US have air conditioning, but only 10% of homes in Europe and 5% of homes in India, see chart below. For China, the number is 60%. 


10. 24/7 Presidential Election News Cycle—Meanwhile Only 50% of Americans Vote

The Daily Stoic
They are frustrating and awful, in some cases absolutely vile. The situation is corrupt. The results, unacceptable. You’re upset. You have every right to be.
We deserve better. Our children deserve better—better politics, better government, better policies.
In the last couple election cycles, a curious thing happened as former President Barack Obama laid out the very real—and in many cases nonpartisan—frustrations that people have with their government these days in front of an audience: the crowds started booing. Not booing at him, but booing at the situation. Each time, he has replied by stopping them. “Don’t boo,” he says, “vote.”
The Stoics have been involved in politics since the days of ancient Greece and they no doubt would have witnessed a certain timeless tendency in democracies: People will complain. People will get angry. But you know what they can’t be bothered to do? Their most basic civic obligation. They’ll chatter about politics. They’ll talk about how they’d like things to be, how they should be, but they won’t vote! (Today, roughly 50% of eligible Americans vote. Just half!)
The task of the philosopher, Epictetus said, was to focus on what we control. We don’t control much, but we do control whether we register to vote and whether we bother to show up. Will our vote be decisive? Will the politicians listen? That’s not up to us, really. And even if it was, it doesn’t matter until after we vote.
Don’t boo. Don’t complain. Be an adult. Go read up on the candidates. Watch the debates tonight. Check them for the virtues necessary in a leader. Examine their platform for bullshit and demagoguery. Understand no one will check every box, but pick the one you can best trust with the responsibilities of power and the common good. Go do your job.
Vote.  https://dailystoic.com

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 9, 2024

1. Semiconductor Index -17% from Highs

2nd close below 200 Days in a month.


2. Tech Sector Dominates Flows

Market Ear Blog


3. New iPhone Announcement Monday from AAPL


4. Mag 7 Percentage of S&P Returns

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/


5. China Mega Tech Sitting in Cash as Government Limts Power


6. Broadcom Has Traded Above 50 Week Moving Average Since End of 2022

Level to Watch AVGO-50 Week Moving Average on Long-Term Chart.


7. Bitcoin ETF -30% from Highs

IBIT a series of lower highs.


8. How Big is the Oil Market


9. AI and Hair Analysis

From Longevity Insider

https://www.longevityinsider.org/subscribe/landing-1-a/


10. T.J. McConnell Earned Close to MJ?

 

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 6, 2024

1. Average Life Span of S&P 500 Company Shrinking

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Average-company-lifespan-on-S-P-500-Index-each-data-represents-a-rolling-7-year-average_fig9_307560120


2. Yield Curve Update-Longest Inversion in History Steepening

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank
Regular readers will know that I’m a big fan of the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of forecasting the US cycle. However it’s fair to say that its predictive power in this cycle looks to have malfunctioned. 2s10s has been inverted for 26 months continuously, which is the longest ever, and there still hasn’t been a recession.
So with the 2s10s poking its head into positive territory over the last 24 hours, it’s tempting to suggest we can sound the all-clear.
But today‘s CoTD shows we’re not out of the woods yet, as recessions start when curves are re-steepening and not when close to their maximum inversion point. Indeed the last 4 recessions only began once the curve was positive again. Henry’s piece from last year (link here) looks at those examples of how the curve steepened into positive territory before the recession.
Of course, a perfect soft landing would also bring a steeper curve, as the Fed will be able to cut and lower yields at the front-end. So whichever way you lean, a positive sloping curve (if we continue to move in that direction) likely brings forward the moment of truth as to whether the yield curve has completely failed as a leading indicator in this cycle, or whether its powers were just felt later than in other cycles through history.


3. TLT 20 Year Treasury Breaks Out to New High


4. More Detailed Post Election Returns Map


5. It’s Not 1999..Large Tech Trading at Half the Valuations of Internet Bubble

MarketEar Blog

https://cressetcapital.com


6. Corporate Buybacks Slowdown Period

Dave Lutz Jones Trading
US corporates have been the largest buyer of the equity market, and we expect their demand to drop by -35% during the closed window,” Rubner wrote. “This week is peak open-window for corporates.”


7. REIT Sentiment Chart

Topdown Charts

https://www.topdowncharts.com/


8. Manufacturing % of U.S. Economy

DC Lite Blog
Manufacturing jobs.
 “Manufacturing is not the economy.” https://www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-194-327

Freya Beamish – TS Lombard


9. Parkinson’s may begin in the gut, study says, adding to growing evidence

MSN-Story by Meeri Kim 
A new study adds to a growing body of evidence that Parkinson’s disease, long believed to have its origins in the brain, may begin in the gut.
Gastrointestinal problems are common in patients with neurodegenerative disorders, to the point where a condition known as “institutional colon” was once thought to afflict those who lived in mental health institutions. In Parkinson’s disease, the entire gastrointestinal tract is affected, causing complications such as constipation, drooling, trouble swallowing and delayed emptying of the stomach. These symptoms often appear up to two decades before motor symptoms such as rigidity or tremor.
“People have, for the longest time, described Parkinson’s disease as a top-down disease — so, it starts in the brain and then percolates down to the gut, and that’s why patients have issues with their gastrointestinal tract,” said study author Subhash Kulkarni, an assistant professor at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. “Another hypothesis suggests that, in many patients, it may be a bottom-up approach, where it starts in the gut and goes all the way up to the brain.”
Kulkarni and his colleagues found that people with upper gastrointestinal conditions — in particular, ulcers or other types of damage to the lining of the esophagus, stomach, or upper part of the small intestine — were far more likely to develop Parkinson’s disease later in life. The study was published online Thursday in JAMA Network Open.
Trisha Pasricha, the senior author of the study, is the Ask a Doctor columnist for The Washington Post. She was not involved in the reporting of this article.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/ar-AA1q3r8C


10. Practicing These 3 Good Habits for the Rest of Your Life Will Be a Difference Maker

The challenge with forming good habits for success is picking the right ones. Here are three to consider.
 
Expert Opinion By Marcel Schwantes, Inc. contributing editor, executive coach, speaker, and author  @MarcelSchwantes
 
One of the most valuable insights into life and success revolves around the underestimated power of habits. It’s often said that people don’t fully appreciate just how important habits are until they get older.
As we age, we realize how difficult it can be to change habits, especially those ingrained over decades. This is why it’s crucial to form the right habits early on.
The challenge with forming good habits is picking the right ones! Not all habits are the same; some help us grow and achieve, while others hold us back and make us feel unsatisfied.
Her Dog Was Sick. Really Sick. She Turned His Cure Into a Fast-Growing Busines 
So, what’s the key? It’s to identify habits that match our values and long-term goals and nurture them intentionally. Here are three to consider:
1. Living with integrity
Living and working with integrity brings significant benefits, both personally and professionally. When you operate with integrity, people trust you. They know you’re reliable and ethical and won’t cut corners. This trust helps build stronger relationships with colleagues, clients, and customers. Furthermore, maintaining integrity enhances your reputation, opening up new opportunities and advancing your career. Investor Warren Buffett once said, “In looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if they don’t have the first one, the other two will kill you.”
2. Getting smarter each day
Embracing a growth mindset and making a commitment to lifelong learning are really important habits for success. Think about how you can go to bed a little smarter each day, because when you do, it leads to greater achievements. For example, regular reading and learning can make a big difference in your personal and professional life. The saying “the more you learn, the more you’ll earn” really shows how valuable education and self-improvement are.
3. Simplifying your life
Keeping things simple can lead to long-term success and financial security. Instead of splurging and getting into unnecessary debt, focusing on saving and investing is a great idea these days. Many successful people use their resources to help others, rather than just chasing after personal riches. This shows that living modestly can truly make a positive impact on society.
By embracing the power of simple habits and consciously cultivating the right ones, we can set ourselves on a path to success, fulfillment, and a life well-lived. www.inc.com

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/click-here-for-happiness/202312/benefits-of-the-wim-hof-method

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 5, 2024

1. TSM and NVDA Make Up 34% of Semiconductor Index.


2. NVDA vs. INTC Chart


3. Stocks and Bonds Non-Correlated Again.

From DC Lite Chart Book Stocks vs. bonds. “Stocks and bonds aren’t moving in the same direction any more. The 21-session correlation between the daily change in the S&P 500 and long-term US Treasury bonds is now at its most negative since the second quarter of 2023.”

Luke Kawa – Sherwood   https://www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-194-327


4. Dollar Tree and Dollar General Charts

DLTR -60% from highs

DG -70% from highs


5. Wal-Mart Nation…WMT vs. DG

Cresset

https://cressetcapital.com


6. Brazil Bans X….Stock Market -30% for Last 5 Years.


7. India Up 13 Sessions in a Row…Makes New Highs.


8. Popular Life-Sciences Real Estate 24% Vacancy

www.chartr.com


9. U.S. Accuses Russia of Spending Millions to Influence U.S. Voters

Vladimir Putin’s inner circle has been directly involved in covert propaganda efforts, Justice Department says

By Dustin Volz and C. Ryan Barber

Top U.S. officials shared evidence to support their claims that the Kremlin is actively trying to influence the November vote in favor of Republican candidate Donald Trump; the Kremlin Senate building in Moscow, seen from Red Square. Photo: Reuters

WASHINGTON—The Biden administration accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of orchestrating a covert campaign to influence the coming U.S. presidential election and erode international support for Ukraine, blaming the Kremlin for targeting American voters with political propaganda and disinformation.

The influence campaign, Attorney General Merrick Garland said during a news briefing on Wednesday, involved Putin’s inner circle and included a scheme to direct Russian public-relations companies to promote state-sponsored narratives to influence the presidential race.

The Justice Department announced the seizure of more than 30 internet domains it said were being weaponized by the Russian government to direct malign influence efforts against the U.S. It identified Sergei Kiriyenko, a longtime senior aide to Putin, as overseeing the internet websites, which were designed to appear to readers as leading U.S. news sites but were, in fact, filled with Russian propaganda.

Separately, the Justice Department announced charges against two Russian nationals employed at the Russian state-media organization RT. Kostiantyn Kalashnikov and Elena Afanasyeva are accused of conspiring to illegally and secretly send nearly $10 million to a Tennessee-based online media company to inject hidden Russian government messaging across social media to target American audiences. Garland said the two Russians directed the company to contract with U.S.-based social media influencers to then share the content on their platforms.

“The company never disclosed to the influencers or to their millions of followers its ties to RT and the Russian government,” Garland said. 

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-accuses-russia-of-spending-millions-to-influence-u-s-voters-be531b99


10. Benefits of the Wim Hof Method

Learn about the science and history behind the Wim Hof Method.-Psychology Today

Key points

  • Through concentration and meditation, Wim Hof was able to deliberately activate his autonomic nervous system.
  • The Wim Hof method involves breathing exercises, cold therapy, and mindset training/concentration.
  • Increasing willpower and self-control can help one withstand cold exposure and endure breathing exercises.

The Wim Hof Method is named after the person who developed it—a man named Wim Hof from the Netherlands. He developed his method after years of pushing the physiological limits of his body and the perceived limits of his mind through cold exposure and breathing techniques. Wim holds several world records for various cold-weather activities such as the longest ice bath and running marathons around the polar circle (Hof, 2015). These physical achievements led to a scientific case study about him by an academic research institution.

This case study turned out to be groundbreaking as the researchers were able to show that through concentration and meditation, Wim was able to deliberately activate his autonomic nervous system. This is a feat previously believed to be impossible, as the autonomic nervous system controls involuntary bodily functions such as sweating and blood pressure. The paper concluded that Wim was able to achieve a consciously controlled stress response through his practice, which also seemed to activate his innate immune responses (Kox et al., 2012).

​Three Components of the Wim Hof Method

  1. Breathing exercises
  2. Cold therapy
  3. Mindset training/concentration

RMIT University in Australia conducted a survey of more than 3,200 Wim Hof practitioners to determine what the subjective benefits of the practice are. The answers were compiled into the following categories (Wim Hof Method, n.d.). Remember these results have not been scientifically evaluated and may only occur on a case-by-case basis.

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Possible ​Physical Benefits of the Wim Hof Method

  • More energy
  • Natural anti-inflammatory effect
  • Better sleep
  • Increased sports performance
  • Faster workout recovery
  • Autoimmune disease relief
  • Arthritis relief
  • Fibromyalgia relief
  • Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease management
  • Asthma management
  • Lowered blood pressure
  • Improved metabolism

Possible Mental Benefits of the Wim Hof Method

  • Improved mental health
  • Stress relief
  • Burnout recovery
  • Increased willpower
  • Boosted concentration
  • Improved mind-body connection
  • Increased happiness
  • Improved creativity

Breathing

Breathing is the first of the three pillars of the Wim Hof method. Breathing is an essential function of your survival that is usually controlled by your autonomic nervous system. This means you usually breathe without even giving it a second thought. However, you have an immense amount of control over your breath, and exerting this control can help activate your immune responses by increasing the overall amount of oxygen in your blood, which increases the amount of available energy for your cells.

Cold Therapy

Cold therapy is the second pillar of the Wim Hof method. One study found that the combination of breathing exercises and cold exposure produced a more potent anti-inflammatory response in participants compared to either breathing or cold therapy alone (Zwaag et al., 2022). This means that the combination of breathing exercises and cold therapy is what drives the activation of your immune response. Skip the cold therapy, and you might not see the full benefits of this method.

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​Wim Hof Breathing Steps

  1. Get yourself into a comfortable position sitting up. Try putting pillows under your legs if your hips feel tight while sitting down.
  2. Take 30-40 deep breaths. Close your eyes and focus on inhaling into your belly and chest then exhaling unforced. Repeat this cycle in powerful bursts. (This type of breathing exercise may induce lightheadedness, so use caution.)
  3. Hold your breath. After 30-40 breath cycles, inhale once more as deeply as you can and then exhale completely. Hold your breath until you feel the need to breathe again.
  4. Take a recovery breath. Once the urge to breathe strikes, inhale as deeply as you can into your belly and chest and hold this breath for 15 seconds. Exhale completely and start another cycle at step one. You can repeat this cycle 3-4 times.

Wim Hof Cold Therapy Steps

Note: You can either take a cold shower solely for this purpose or incorporate this exercise at the end of your regular shower. You also might want to complete meditation or the breathing exercises above prior to this to prepare yourself mentally for the cold exposure.

  1. Turn on the shower and adjust the temperature to the absolute coldest that you can tolerate for at least 10 seconds.
  2. Step into the shower carefully and quickly. Going quickly rather than easing in is often easier and more efficient.
  3. Try to tolerate the cold for as long as possible. Start at 10 seconds before working your way up to 1 minute. Your tolerance to the cold will build over time.

Wim Hof Mindset Steps

​The final pillar of the Wim Hof Method can often be overlooked. However, it serves as the foundation for the two other practices, which makes it an integral piece of this method. Increasing your willpower and self-control will help you withstand cold exposure and endure breathing exercises. Showing up and completing the exercises—even just one cycle of breath and 10 seconds of cold exposure—will help you demonstrate to yourself that you do have the ability to show up and get things done. This effect can snowball into more willpower and self-confidence, leading to even better results

Tchiki Davis, Ph.D., is a consultant, writer, and expert on well-being technology.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/click-here-for-happiness/202312/benefits-of-the-wim-hof-method

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 4, 2024

1. Second Half 2024–S&P Equal Weight +5.7% vs. QQQ -3.6%

RSP-S&P Equal Weight ETF


2. S&P 500 Q2 Earnings Growth by Sector

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


3. Capex Increases Spending by Big 4

@Charlie Bilello


4. Commodities vs. 52-week highs. Most commodities are down 20% or more from their 52-week highs.

Koyfin (get 20% off)


5. History of Bad First Days of Month


6. The Shortage of Accountants

Chartr Blog

For decades, the accountant stereotype has conjured up depressing images of white-collar workers, slouched in office stalls, painstakingly crunching numbers on a spreadsheet till it’s quittin’ time.
Historically, the long-term financial stability afforded to accountants was enough to offset its somewhat unglamorous reputation. Today, though, that appeal isn’t resonating with Gen Z, according to new reporting from Business Insider.
Indeed, America is facing an accountant shortage, and it’s starting at college. Data released by the AICPA last October found that the number of students who’d earned a bachelor’s degree in accounting in the 2021-22 school year was just 47,067 — down ~8% from the year prior, marking the 6th consecutive year of decline — while the number of students who’d graduated with a master’s in the subject fell to 18,238, a 21% drop from its peak, recorded just 4 years earlier.

Sum people

Furthermore, only a fraction of these graduates actually go on to become accountants: post-master’s degree, one must pass a further four 4-hour CPA exams within an 18-month period, and spend a year working with a licensed CPA, before receiving the official title.
A lack of new talent entering the industry is especially problematic because there’s a huge wave of professionals that are set to close their books for good, with the AICPA estimating that ~75% of the CPA workforce reached retirement age in 2020.
To address the issue, the AICPA dropped its opposition to calls that would cut the amount of education needed to become a CPA, and companies like the ‘Big 4’ firms are promoting programs with built-in master’s-degree equivalents to encourage applications.
One obvious way to make the profession more appealing? A bigger, better number. According to the BLS, the median salary for accountants and auditors is ~$80K — far lower than other jobs in the sector, such as financial analysts (~$100K) and financial managers (~$156K).


7. We Have 8m More Adults Working than 10 Years Ago.


8. Case/Shiller Year Over Year Housing Price Changes.

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/new-york-new-york


9. We Check Our Smartphones 352x Per Day

The New Normal: Phone Use is Up Nearly 4-Fold Since 2019, According to Tech Care Company Asurion
New Research Shows Our Smartphone Use Has Skyrocketed to 352 Times Per Day
Mask mandates may be lifting, but some of our pandemic-fueled habits are here to stay, including our “new normal” for screen time. In fact, even with the return of travel and in-person gatherings, most Americans can’t seem to put their phones down and are reaching for their device an average of 352 times a day – once every two minutes and 43 seconds –according to new research by tech care company Asurion*. Whether we’re sending text messages, capturing content or bringing up digital vaccination cards, it’s a nearly 4-fold increase from a similar survey conducted by Asurion before the pandemic in 2019, when Americans said they checked their phones 96 times a day**.
“From video chatting with loved ones to conducting contactless payments, mobile banking and even bringing up menus at restaurants, the pandemic has certainly put our smartphones at the center of it all,” says Anitha Somanahally, Asurion Senior Director, Research and Insights. “Our phones have become such a huge part of our day that when they break, getting them fixed or replaced becomes an urgent priority. No one knows this better than our Asurion Experts, who help panicked customers repair their much-needed devices every day – often within a few hours.”
Asurion surveyed 1,965 U.S. adults to learn that three-quarters of Americans consider their phone a “necessity,” rather than a “luxury.” In fact, 1 in 5 of us is unwilling to go without our smartphone for more than “a few hours,” and three-quarters of us are so attached to our devices that we take them into the bathroom. The main reason we’re not ready to put down our devices? We want to stay in touch with family and friends, both near and far. While the pandemic and social distancing drove us apart physically, 86% of Americans say they primarily reach for their phones to keep in touch with family and friends by calling, texting, chatting on social media or emailing. Taking photos and videos was the second biggest driver of phone use (61%), followed by mobile banking (46%), mobile gaming (40%) and online shopping (31%).
What’s interesting is that even more Baby Boomers (75%) and Gen Xers (76%) consider their phones to be a necessity than the “techy” Gen Zers (71%) or Millennials (68%). The devices are so essential that 60% of Americans say they could go no more than a day without their phone if it were damaged so badly that they couldn’t use it. And for parents, the urgency of having a working phone is even higher: 67% of parents said they’d need a working device within a day or sooner if theirs was lost, damaged or stolen.
Asurion provides quick and convenient device repair, replacement and support services through protection plans in partnership with leading wireless carriers and retailers, as well as through its uBreakiFix® by Asurion stores. The more than 700 store locations across the U.S. provide professional fixes on smartphones, tablets, computers, game consoles and most anything else with a power button. The company’s repair network also includes nearly 600 “We Come to You” mobile repair vehicles, bringing phone repair services to customers’ homes, offices or wherever is most convenient. Customers enrolled in protection plans through their carrier can often take advantage of same-day delivery of replacement phones too. Need your tech fixed? Learn more at Asurion.com.


10. Life Rewards Strength -Farnam Street Blog

“School tests weaknesses. Life rewards strengths.

Spending more time on our weakest areas is tempting, but life mostly rewards us for investing in our strengths. Imagine a student who struggles with math but excels at writing. In school, they might spend hours raising their math grades from a C to a B. However, spending the same time on writing might move them from an A to an A+. Focusing on math makes sense when you’re taught to think in grades. It doesn’t make sense if you think about life. The difference between an A and an A+ in writing ability might mean the difference between a New York Times bestseller read by millions and a book that only 100 people read.”

Address weaknesses only to the point where they stop holding you back. Then concentrate effort on your strengths.

https://fs.blog/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 3, 2024

1. NVDA’s Correlation to S&P is Lowering

Barrons-What’s more, Nvidia seems to hold less sway over the market than it has in past years. The correlation between the stock and the S&P 500 has recently climbed to 0.658, according to Bloomberg data, its highest since last year. (A correlation of 1 means two assets move in complete lockstep, of -1 means they move in total opposition.) Still, that is far below the 0.851 hit right at the beginning of 2022. Now, correlation isn’t causation, but it does suggest that the S&P 500 is less sensitive to Nvidia’s cues than it had been a couple of years ago.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-earning-stock-market-reaction-939ed514?mod=past_editions

NVDA vs. S&P chart lower highs.


2. Mag 7 Underperformed the Market in August.

The most bullish part of all. This all has happened despite the Magnificent 7 having their worst month relative to the S&P 500 since December 2022.

Source: Kevin Gordon  From Spilled Coffee Blog https://www.spilledcoffee.co/


3. NVDA Revenue Growth + Profitability


4. Corporate Profits Hit a Record

The United States: Corporate profits hit a record high.


5. IPO Market Update

https://www.renaissancecapital.com


6. Chasing Star Fund Manager Performance

by Ben Carlson  Chasing ARK Investments Cathie Wood Top to Bottom

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/08/chasing-star-fund-manager-performance


7. House Prices vs. Full Time Earnings.


8. Falling Fertility

Barrons By Megan Leonhardt-The Price of Parenthood.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/parenthood-economy-expenses-politics-5ac47bac?mod=hp_LEAD_1


9. Lobbying Spending by Industry


10. Want to Get Smarter? Neuroscience Reveals 6 Simple, Remarkably Effective Ways to Learn Faster and Retain More

Learn more quickly and remember more? Here’s how, backed by a number of studies.

EXPERT OPINION BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC. @JEFF_HADEN

Who you know matters. But what you know, and what you do with what you know, matters a lot more, making learning faster and retaining more a business superpower.

Here are six neuroscience-based ways to learn more quickly — and, even more important, better retain what you learn

1. Learn several things at a time.

The process is called interleaving: studying related concepts or skills in parallel. Instead of focusing on one subject, one task, or one skill during a learning session, purposely learn or practice several subjects or skills in succession. 

It turns out interleaving is a much more effective way to train your brain and your motor skills. A theory proposed in a study published in the Educational Psychology Review says interleaving improves your brain’s ability to differentiate between concepts or skills: When you block practice one skill, you can drill down until muscle memory takes over and the skill becomes more or less automatic. 

When you interleave several skills, no single skill can become mindless, and that’s good, since you then have to constantly adapt and adjust. You have to see, feel, and discriminate between concepts or movements. 

That process helps you better learn what you’re working to learn since you’ll gain understanding at a deeper, less automatic/muscle-memory level. 

Want more on how adaptation helps you learn? 

2. Frequently vary the way you study.

Repeating anything over and over again, in the hopes you will master that task, not only keeps you from improving as quickly as you could, but, in some cases, may actually decrease your skill as well. 

According to a study published in Johns Hopkins Medicine, practicing a slightly modified version of a task you want to master helps you “actually learn more and faster than if you just keep practicing the exact same thing multiple times in a row.” The most likely cause is reconsolidation, a process where existing memories are recalled and modified with new knowledge.

Imagine you want to master a presentation. Here’s the process:

1. Rehearse the basic skill. Run through the presentation twice, under the same conditions you’ll eventually face when you do it live. Naturally, the second time through will be better than the first; that’s how practice works. But then, instead of going through it a third time  …

2. Wait. Give yourself at least six hours so your memory can consolidate. (That could mean you need to wait until the next day before you practice again, which, as you’ll see in a moment, is a great learning effectiveness double-dip.)

3. Practice again, but this time …

  • Go a little faster. Speak a little (just a little) faster than you normally do. Run through your slides slightly faster. Increasing your speed means you’ll make more mistakes, but that’s OK — in the process, you’ll modify old knowledge with new knowledge, and lay the groundwork for improvement. Or …
  • Go a little slower. The same thing will happen. (Plus, you can experiment with new techniques, including the use of silence for effect, that aren’t apparent when you do your presentation at a normal speed.) Or …
  • Break your presentation into smaller chunks. Almost every task includes a series of discrete steps, and that’s definitely true for presentations. Pick one section of your pitch. Deconstruct it. Master it. Then put the whole presentation back together. Or …
  • Change the conditions. Use a different projector. Or a different remote. Or a lavaliere instead of a headset mic. Switch up the conditions slightly; not only will that help you modify an existing memory, but it will also make you better prepared for the unexpected.

4. Keep modifying the conditions as you keep practicing.

Best of all, the process can be applied to learning almost anything, whether memory or motor skills related. 

3. Test yourself — a lot.

A classic study published in Psychological Science in the Public Interest shows that self-testing is an extremely effective way to speed up the learning process.

Partly that’s because of the additional context you create. Test yourself and answer incorrectly and not only are you more likely to remember the right answer after you look it up, but you’ll also remember the fact you didn’t remember. (Especially if you tend to be hard on yourself.)

So don’t just rehearse your sales pitch. Test yourself on what comes after your intro. Test yourself by listing the four main points you want to make. Test your ability to remember cost savings figures, or price schedules, or how you will respond to the most common questions or types of customer resistance.

Not only will you gain confidence in how much you do know, but you’ll also more quickly learn the things you don’t know — at least not yet. 

4. Repeat what you want to remember out loud.

Mentally rehearsing is good. Rehearsing out loud is better. 

Research published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition found that compared with reading or thinking silently (as if there’s another way to think), the act of speech is a “quite powerful mechanism for improving memory for selected information.”

As the researchers write:

Learning and memory benefit from active involvement. When we add an active measure or a production element to a word, that word becomes more distinct in long-term memory, and hence more memorable.

So don’t just practice your presentation in your head. Rehearse it out loud. (Or don’t just repeat the name of someone you just met in your head. Find a way to say it out loud, like using their name in conversation.)

That way you’ll remember what you thought and what you heard yourself say.

5. Take plenty of breaks.

Once you’ve drafted that presentation, run through it a couple of times. Take a few minutes to make corrections and revisions.

Then step away for a few hours, or even for a day, before you repeat the process; as a study published in Psychological Science shows, “distributed practice” is a much more effective way to learn. Why?

Study-phase retrieval theory says each time you attempt to retrieve something from memory, and that retrieval is more successful, the memory then becomes harder to forget. If you go over your presentation back-to-back-to-back, much of it will still be top of mind.

Which means you don’t have to retrieve it from longer-term memory.

Another theory regards contextual variability. When information gets encoded into memory, some of the context is also encoded. That’s why listening to an old song can cause you to remember where you were, what you were feeling, etc., when you first heard that song. The additional context creates useful cues for retrieving information.

Either way, distributed practice definitely works. So give yourself enough time to space out your learning sessions. You’ll learn more efficiently and more effectively.

Especially if you …

6. Get some sleep.

According to a 2016 study published in Psychological Science, people who studied before bed, then slept, and then did a quick review the next morning not only spent less time studying but also increased their long-term retention by 50 percent.

Why? One factor is what psychologists call sleep-dependent memory consolidation.

As the researchers write:

Converging evidence, from the molecular to the phenomenological, leaves little doubt that offline memory reprocessing during sleep is an important component of how our memories are formed and ultimately shaped.

Sleeping after learning is definitely a good strategy, but sleeping between two learning sessions is a better strategy.

Or in non-researcher-speak, sleeping on it not only helps your brain file away what you’ve learned, but also makes that information easier to access — especially if you chunk your learning sessions by studying a little the next morning.

Better, more efficient retention.

Can’t beat that.

https://www.inc.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 30, 2024

1. NVDA Revenue Growth Slowdown

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-biggest-challenge-for-nvidia-stock-in-one-chart-142146081.html


2. Charted: Nvidia’s Quarterly Revenue (Q1 2021-Q2 2025)

ByKayla Zhu Joyce Ma


3. Dollar General 5-Year Return -45%


4. Fed Rate Cuts Coming-Dividend Growers Break Out.

SDY dividend grower ETF…..breaks out of 3 year sideways channel

www.stockcharts.com


5. Fed Funds vs. Inflation

Barry Ritholtz Blog


6. Seasonality of Bitcoin

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


7. Goldman Most Shorted Stock Basket


8. Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall 5.5% in July to All-Time Low

by Jennifer Nash-Advisor Perspectives

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/08/29/pending-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-5-5-in-july-to-all-time-low


9. ESPN Survival Plan -Axios

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/29/espns-business-cable-streaming-sports-betting


10. The Science-Backed Productivity Strategy You Probably Ignore

Productivity strategies rarely consider how the brain optimizes motivation. Psychology Today  Bobby Hoffman Ph.D.

Key points

  • Productivity strategies should be based on science, not the personal experience of others.
  • Understanding neural synthesis can make the difference between superior and average performance.
  • Productivity means maximizing the power of your circadian rhythm.

For many of us, what we accomplish on a particular day impacts everything from our reputation to our mood. Productivity serves as a cornerstone of success, acting as the driving force behind achievement in both our personal and professional lives. Research reveals a strong positive correlation between productivity and various measures of well-being, including career advancement, financial stability, and overall life satisfaction (Dierdorff, 2019; Judge et al., 2010). The ability to efficiently manage time, prioritize tasks, and maintain focus on goal-oriented activities significantly contributes to an individual’s capacity to excel in their chosen field (Grant & Ashford, 2008). While the relationship between productivity and success is well-established, it is crucial to recognize that productivity itself is not a fixed trait. Rather, it is a skill that can be cultivated and enhanced through the implementation of targeted strategies and learned techniques.

Use techniques based on science, not “expert” experience

However, when it comes to productivity strategies, we often rely on sources and techniques that have little basis in science. The allure of advice from self-proclaimed experts often falls short because, while the “gurus” may offer appealing quick fixes, their recommendations frequently lack scientific rigor and fail to account for the complex interplay of neural processes that underpin human behavior and cognition (Lilienfeld et al., 2013). Although personal experience can be valuable for individual growth, it is inherently limited by factors such as cognitive biases, environmental influences, and the exclusion of individual differences in neural architecture. Instead, the reliance on neuropsychology leverages how your body operates, irrespective of how you or anyone else thinks.

When someone is being super productive, several key processes occur in their brain and body. At the neurochemical level, dopamine synthesis promotes motivation and focus, while norepinephrine enhances alertness and attention (Cools & D’Esposito, 2011). When you’re in the zone, crushing your to-do list, your brain is like a well-oiled machine because dopamine helps increase activation in the prefrontal cortex, the brain area that is critical for cognitive control impacting things like planning, decision-making, and goal-directed behavior. As you use your cognitive horsepower and repeat productive behaviors, you begin to feel successful. The more you flex those productivity muscles, the stronger they get and the better you feel. That’s neuroplasticity in action, rewiring your brain to make being productive feel like second nature (Lövdén et al., 2010). In addition, productivity is influenced by the body’s circadian rhythms, meaning that cognitive functions and energy levels fluctuate throughout the day in accordance with our internal clocks.

Make it happen!

Knowing what happens behind the scenes in your brain and how neurotransmission impacts motivation, you can now use this knowledge to enhance your productivity. Just like you feed your body with food for energy and movement, you need to feed your brain to be productive. Stanford neuroscientist and ophthalmology professor Andrew Huberman recommends a specific morning protocol to get you going based on how your brain operates, with the objective of producing game-changing dopamine transmission while leveraging your natural circadian rhythms.

The routine starts with exposing yourself to natural sunlight soon after waking. This means going outside, without sunglasses, and before drinking coffee/tea and staying outside for at least 20 minutes (ideally moving) to significantly boost dopamine production and overall well-being. This practice helps regulate your circadian rhythm and triggers a cascade of positive neurochemical changes. The bright light stimulates melanopsin receptors in your eyes, which then signal the brain to release cortisol, providing an energy boost. More importantly, this early light exposure sets off a delayed release of dopamine and serotonin later in the day. This natural light exposure is crucial even on cloudy days, as outdoor light is much stronger than indoor lighting. This simple habit can improve mood, increase alertness, and enhance overall cognitive function throughout the day. For those living in areas with limited morning sunlight, use bright artificial lights designed to mimic sunlight, although natural sunlight is always preferable when available. Always take precautions to not look directly into the light as a way to shorten the process; it is the prolonged natural exposure that matters most.

While you may be skeptical, this simple technique works! I can tell you from personal experience when I follow the protocol my productivity is far better than when I don’t. Give it a try and see how you can exponentially increase your productivity and also your satisfaction about what you accomplish. By acknowledging the malleability of productivity and taking this one small step to improve it, you can unlock your full potential and pave the way for greater success in all areas of life.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/motivate/202408/the-science-backed-productivity-strategy-you-probably-ignore

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 28, 2024

1. Earnings Tomorrow NVDA After Close…The Only Chart that Matters this Week.

NVDA-2 Lower Highs in place…Need to close above $140 for breakout.


2. Real Estate Leading Sector for Last Month of Trading.

(7/31 – 8/23) SPDR Fund XLRE leads the major 11 sectors with a 5.29% gain.


3. Japan Stock Market +23% from Lows.


4. Corporate Buyback Data from B of A

Equities: Corporate cash as a share of total assets has been trending lower, indicating that we could see a pullback in share buybacks.

Source: BofA Global Research  

https://dailyshotbrief.com


5. Alternative Energy Stocks Hyrdrogen and Biofuel Sell Off.

WSJ


6. Allbirds Sneaks -97%

Business Insider-The Rise and Fall of Allbirds

  • Allbirds was founded in 2015 and soared to prominence with its iconic wool sneaker.
  • The company went public in November 2021. Shares rose 90% on the opening day of trading.
  • Sales have since slowed and the company reported a nearly 27% decline in quarterly revenue.

With the closure of 14 underperforming stores, CEO Joe Vernachio told investors the past 18 months have been a period of reinvention for the company as it looks to reinvent itself in a leaner, more focused organization.

https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-to-allbirds-rise-fall-2023-4


7. Communism Sucks…Chinese Consumer Sentiment Chart.


8. Taliban Vice and Virtue Laws -AP News

Article 13 relates to women. It says it is mandatory for a woman to veil her body at all times in public and that a face covering is essential to avoid temptation and tempting others. Clothing should not be thin, tight or short.

Women should veil themselves in front of all male strangers, including Muslims, and in front of all non-Muslims to avoid being corrupted. A woman’s voice is deemed intimate and so should not be heard singing, reciting, or reading aloud in public. It is forbidden for women to look at men they are not related to by blood or marriage and vice versa.

Article 17 bans the publication of images of living beings, threatening an already fragile Afghan media landscape.

Article 19 bans the playing of music, the transportation of solo female travelers, and the mixing of men and women who are not related to each other. The law also obliges passengers and drivers to perform prayers at designated times.

https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-taliban-vice-virtue-laws-women-9626c24d8d5450d52d36356ebff20c83


9. Fare Evasion Surges on N.Y.C. Buses, Where 48% of Riders Fail to Pay

August 26, 2024

Every weekday in New York City, close to one million bus riders — roughly one out of every two passengers — board without paying. The skipped fares are a crucial and growing loss of revenue for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which is under severe financial pressure.

New York’s long-running fare evasion problem, among the worst of any major city in the world, has intensified recently; before the pandemic, only about one in five bus riders skipped the fare.

Yet public officials have done relatively little to collect the lost revenue from bus riders. Instead, they have focused almost exclusively on the subway system, where waves of police officers and private security guards have been deployed to enforce payment, even as fare evasion rates on trains are dwarfed by those on buses.

During the first three months of this year, 48 percent of bus riders did not pay, according to the latest available statistics from the transit authority, while 14 percent of subway riders evaded fares. Roughly twice the number of people ride the city’s subways as ride its buses.

Fare evasion has led to startling financial losses for the M.T.A., the state agency that runs the city transit system. In 2022, the authority lost $315 million because of bus fare evasion and $285 million as a result of subway fare beaters, according to a 2023 report commissioned by the M.T.A.

Transit experts say some New Yorkers don’t pay to board the bus because they cannot afford the fare. Others find it far easier to board a bus without paying than to sneak into the subway system, where turnstiles and gates block access. The standard fare for subway riders and most bus passengers is $2.90 per trip.

Fare beaters might also feel emboldened, experts say, because heavy traffic and a lack of bus lanes means that bus service can be slow and unreliable. For some riders, it is simply not worth the price of admission. The pandemic also reinforced the perception that fares were optional, after the authority made bus rides free for a few months in 2020.

“In the public’s mind, they don’t see the bus system as the real source of fare evasion,” said David R. Jones, an M.T.A. board member and the chief executive of the Community Service Society, a nonprofit supporting lower-income New Yorkers. “We have to get people to recognize that this is no longer acceptable.”

Even before the pandemic, bus fare evasion was a serious problem in New York. The evasion rate was roughly 18 percent in 2018, according to a 2019 M.T.A. report. Around that time, the rate was 11 percent in Paris and 5 percent in Toronto. In London, where riders can face fines exceeding $1,000, the fare evasion rate on buses was only 1.5 percent.

Transit leaders in New York have struggled to balance their desire to enforce the rules against the safety of drivers and the needs of low-income commuters. When Andy Byford, the former leader of the city’s subway and bus systems, suggested in 2019 that the M.T.A. needed “cops on buses,” the backlash was swift. The authority for years has sent groups of unarmed employees, known as “eagle teams,” to patrol buses and give tickets to riders who do not pay. Last year the agency expanded the routes they covered.

https://dnyuz.com/2024/08/26/fare-evasion-surges-on-n-y-c-buses-where-48-of-riders-fail-to-pay/


10. The problem isn’t that life is unfair – it’s your broken idea of fairness

Unless you’re winning, most of life will seem hideously unfair to you.-Oliver Emberton  The truth is, life is just playing by different rules.  The real rules are there. They actually make sense. But they’re a bit more complicated, and a lot less comfortable, which is why most people never manage to learn them.

Let’s try.

Rule #1: Life is a competition

That business you work for? Someone’s trying to kill it. That job you like? Someone would love to replace you with a computer program. That girlfriend / boyfriend / high-paying job / Nobel Prize that you want? So does somebody else.

We’re all in competition, although we prefer not to realise it. Most achievements are only notable relative to others. You swam more miles, or can dance better, or got more Facebook Likes than the average. Well done.

It’s a painful thing to believe, of course, which is why we’re constantly assuring each other the opposite. “Just do your best”, we hear. “You’re only in competition with yourself”. The funny thing about platitudes like that is they’re designed to make you try harder anyway. If competition really didn’t matter, we’d tell struggling children to just give up.

Fortunately, we don’t live in a world where everyone has to kill each other to prosper. The blessing of modern civilisation is there’s abundant opportunities, and enough for us all to get by, even if we don’t compete directly.

But never fall for the collective delusion that there’s not a competition going on. People dress up to win partners. They interview to win jobs. If you deny that competition exists, you’re just losing. Everything in demand is on a competitive scale. And the best is only available to those who are willing to truly fight for it.

Rule #2. You’re judged by what you do, not what you think

Society judges people by what they can do for others. Can you save children from a burning house, or remove a tumour, or make a room of strangers laugh? You’ve got value right there.

That’s not how we judge ourselves though. We judge ourselves by our thoughts.

“I’m a good person”. “I’m ambitious”. “I’m better than this.” These idle impulses may comfort us at night, but they’re not how the world sees us. They’re not even how we see other people.

Well-meaning intentions don’t matter. An internal sense of honour and love and duty count for squat. What exactly can you and have you done for the world?

Abilities are not prized by their virtue. Whatever admiration society awards us, comes from the selfish perspectives of others. A hard working janitor is less rewarded by society than a ruthless stockbroker. A cancer researcher is rewarded less than a supermodel. Why? Because those abilities are rarer and impact more people.

We like to like to think that society rewards those who do the best work. Like so:

But in reality, social reward is just a network effect. Reward comes down mostly to the number of people you impact:

Write an unpublished book, you’re nobody. Write Harry Potter and the world wants to know you. Save a life, you’re a small-town hero, but cure cancer and you’re a legend. Unfortunately, the same rule applies to all talents, even unsavoury ones: get naked for one person and you might just make them smile, get naked for fifty million people and you might just be Kim Kardashian.

You may hate this. It may make you sick. Reality doesn’t care. You’re judged by what you have the ability to do, and the volume of people you can impact. If you don’t accept this, then the judgement of the world will seem very unfair indeed.

Rule #3. Our idea of fairness is self interest

People like to invent moral authority. It’s why we have referees in sports games and judges in courtrooms: we have an innate sense of right and wrong, and we expect the world to comply. Our parents tell us this. Our teachers teach us this. Be a good boy, and have some candy.

But reality is indifferent. You studied hard, but you failed the exam. You worked hard, but you didn’t get promoted. You love her, but she won’t return your calls.

The problem isn’t that life is unfair; it’s your broken idea of fairness.

Take a proper look at that person you fancy but didn’t fancy you back. That’s a complete person. A person with years of experience being someone completely different to you. A real person who interacts with hundreds or thousands of other people every year.

Now what are the odds that among all that, you’re automatically their first pick for love-of-their-life? Because – what – you exist? Because you feel something for them? That might matter to you, but their decision is not about you.

Similarly we love to hate our bosses and parents and politicians. Their judgements are unfair. And stupid. Because they don’t agree with me! And they should! Because I am unquestionably the greatest authority on everything ever in the whole world!

It’s true there are some truly awful authority figures. But they’re not all evil, self-serving monsters trying to line their own pockets and savour your misery. Most are just trying to do their best, under different circumstances to your own.

Maybe they know things you don’t – like, say, your company will go bust if they don’t do something unpopular. Maybe they have different priorities to you – like, say, long term growth over short term happiness.

But however they make you feel, the actions of others are not some cosmic judgement on your being. They’re just a byproduct of being alive.

Why life isn’t fair

Our idea of fairness isn’t actually obtainable. It’s really just a cloak for wishful thinking.

Can you imagine how insane life would be if it actually was ‘fair’ to everyone? No-one could fancy anyone who wasn’t the love of their life, for fear of breaking a heart. Companies would only fail if everyone who worked for them was evil. Relationships would only end when both partners died simultaneously. Raindrops would only fall on bad people.

Most of us get so hung up on how we think the world should work that we can’t see how it does. But facing that reality might just be the key to unlocking your understanding of the world, and with it, all of your potential.

https://oliveremberton.com/2014/the-problem-isnt-that-life-is-unfair-its-your-broken-idea-of-fairness/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 27, 2024

1. Nasdaq Fastest 10% Rally From Correction Ever

Source: Michael Batnick


2. Regional Bank Index +5% on Friday

KRE-watch for new highs.


3. Asset Class Real Returns by Time Horizon

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright.


4. Travel Slowdown Post Labor Day??


5. China Invasion? Taiwan Home Prices Not Worried

Bloomberg By Hailey Wang  The median home price in Taipei is 16.1 times median household income, according to Taiwan’s interior ministry. That compares with 3.8 times in Singapore and 7.1 times in New York, though it’s still lower than in Hong Kong, at 16.7 times, according to researchers at Chapman University in California studying data from late last year. Prices in Taiwan are being fueled by mortgage costs that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says have been negative in inflation-adjusted terms for much of the past three years: In May, rates for new loans stood as low as 2.19%, according to the central bank, versus 2.9% in Singapore and 4.1% in Hong Kong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-22/frenzy-fuels-taiwan-home-prices-despite-threat-of-china-invasion?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


6. Private Clients Buying Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors-REITS and Financials …Selling Japan

From the Daily Shot Brief  https://dailyshotbrief.com/


7. 10 U.S. housing markets where buyers have the most power right now: They’re ‘in a good position to negotiate,’ expert says

CNBC Celia Fernandez@cfernan6  Florida’s housing markets reigned supreme in Realtor.com’s report, with nine out of the top 10 in the Sunshine State.

“Buyers in the easiest markets tend to be relatively slow-moving as supply outpaces demand,” Hannah Jones, Realtor.com’s economist, stated in the report. “Many of these markets saw prices and competition climb significantly during the early days of the [covid-19] pandemic, but the combination of high prices and climbing mortgage rates tempered demand, leading to building inventory.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/26/us-housing-markets-buyers-most-power-realtor-com.html


8. Generation Z Voter Gender Gap is 39 Points

NY Times–When President Biden was still in the race, men ages 18 to 29 favored Mr. Trump by an average of 11 percentage points, while young women favored Mr. Biden by 28 points, according to four national New York Times/Siena College polls conducted from last December to June. That was a 39-point gender gap — far exceeding that of any older generation.

And in Times/Siena polls of six swing states this month — taken after Ms. Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee — young men favored Mr. Trump by 13 points, while young women favored Ms. Harris by 38 points, a 51-point gap. (Our companion article on the shift among young women is here.) https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/24/upshot/trump-polls-young-men.html


9. 47% of Teachers in this Poll Say “students showing little to no interest in learning”

Philadelphia Inquirer by Maddie Hanna and Kristen A. Graham

https://www.inquirer.com/education/school-district-mobile-phone-bans-20240825.html


 

10. A shortage of young men in the workforce could weigh on housing, Social Security, and growth for years to come

Story by jsor@businessinsider.com (Jennifer Sor)

-Declining workforce participation among younger men could weigh on the US economy for years.

  • The trend could be a drag on economic growth, housing, and Social Security funds, experts say.
  • The effects could last decades as there are no clear ways to spark a turnaround. 

America’s job market is mysteriously short of young men.

It’s a trend experts say will drag on the economy and could take years to fix, mainly because men have already been dropping out of the workforce for decades.

According to Carol Graham, a senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institute, the labor force participation rate of prime working-age men has been declining over the last twenty years. Today, 10% of men aged 25-54 don’t have a job and aren’t looking for one, more than triple the percentage recorded in 1955, when just 3% were out of the workforce, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That amounts to around 7 million prime working-age men who aren’t working — and has introduced a host of problems for the economy, leaving key industries understaffed and adding to the strain on government services and social safety nets, Graham and other experts told Business Insider.

“Some of them drop out [of college] and are just sort of forlorn and have no purpose or meaning in life. They’re not very likely to be married. They’re very likely to be living in their parent’s basement,” Graham said. “They’re lonely, they’re isolated.”

The economic burden can also compound through generations, she added, given that men who have exited the workforce tend to be lower-income and are more likely to report mental and physical health problems, which impact their children’s ability to build wealth.

Zack Mabel, a research professor at Georgetown University, theorizes that falling labor force participation among young men could impact the economy for at least several decades.

“At this point, it’s a long trend over the course of multiple decades that does not appear to be improving, and could have real long-term consequences,” he said.

Straining the economy

The economy appears to already be feeling the decline in male workforce participation. Despite a small post-pandemic rebound, US GDP per employee fell 1% in 2022, the first decline seen since the World Bank began recording productivity data over 30 years ago.

The overall labor force participation rate, meanwhile, has slumped to 62%. Besides the years following the pandemic, US workforce participation rate hasn’t been that low since the 70s, World Bank data shows.

The trend could weigh on key industries, like infrastructure and manufacturing, where women are often less likely to seek work due to social stigma, Mabel said. That means it could be hard for those industries to find workers, which is a big problem considering the need for labor in growing areas like semiconductors, he added.

“In a situation where you have millions of men … foregoing college, and as a result are less productive and less able to hold onto a stable job, yes, that certainly would raise concerns our national productivity would suffer as a result,” Mabel said.

And while the housing market may be booming now, it is also possible that men leaving the labor force will weigh on that market as well. Meredith Whitney, a longtime Wall Street forecaster, predicts home prices could drop as much as 30% over a period of years thanks to men working less, being less interested in starting families, and being more likely to live with their parents.

Those trends all weigh on household formation, which is the most important factor in determining home prices over the long term, Whitney said.

42% of men who have exited the workforce live with at least one parent, a 2017 Brookings study found.

“This is such a seismic shift in the social structure,” she told BI. “It’s hard to say how long it lasts.”

Government benefits are also hugely taxed by men who are not in the workforce.

Men who have dropped out of the workforce, for one, are significantly more likely to suffer from opioid addiction, Graham said. 44% of men who were out of the workforce said they needed to take pain medication — more than double the portion recorded in employed men, where just 20% took pain meds, a separate Brookings study found.

57% of men not looking for work said they had a physical, mental, or behavioral reason, according to a survey conducted by BPC-Artemis.

11% of men who have exited the labor force rely entirely on government welfare programs for income, according to Brookings data.

“They cost the health system. They go to the emergency room and they’re sick, they’re not going to be able to pay the bills,” Graham said. “That’s coming out of somewhere.”

The welfare burden is exacerbated by the fact that unemployed men aren’t contributing to benefit programs such as through Social Security taxes.

“Potentially, more and more people would benefit and depend on resources that we don’t actually have the means to provide … And that then would really present itself as a huge societal conundrum,” Mabel warned.

There’s no clear answer for how to get young men back into the workforce. The causes appear to be multifold — disabilities, incarceration, and wages not being enticing enough, to name a few —but possible solutions could lie in helping train men for the jobs that are available, according to Graham, or finding ways to give young men role models, such as by hiring more male teachers, Mabel said.

“There’s clearly an economic cost for more than one generation if the trends continue,” Graham told BI. “There are lots of ways it costs society in addition to their individual human lives.”

This story was originally published in June 2024. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1nTJ6g#image=1

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 26, 2024

1. Barrons-The past four Septembers, the market has performed -3.9%, -4.8%, -9.3%, and -4.9%.

QQQ Leader-Bounced at 200-day, but still 25 points from previous highs.


2. Bespoke Mortgage Plus Gas Index-Two Giant Factors for Consumers

Bespoke Investment Group-Combined, our MORTGAS Index currently sits at 10.2.  As shown below, the index is down 1.46 points from its record high of 11.66 seen in late 2023, but it’s still extremely elevated relative to the last 20 years.  Looking on the bright side, the index is now back below its peak seen in 2008 during the Financial Crisis, but we’re going to need to see significant further easing to get back to the 20-year average of 7.62.  A drop like that would likely mean mortgage rates falling at least into the 4-5% range and gas prices remaining closer to a 2-handle than a 4-handle.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog


3. Emerging Markets Ex-China Technical Breakout


4. Crypto Sentiment…Crypto Fear and Greed Index

Equities: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the “fear” zone after a sharp drop from “greed” levels during the sell-off in risk assets. The Daily Shot Blog

Source: Alternative.me

https://dailyshotbrief.com


5. Gold vs. Bitcoin Volatility.

Marketwatch-Bitcoin and gold are very different assets, with the latter much less volatile, noted Cavatoni. In the five years between Dec. 31, 2018 and December 31, 2023, bitcoin showed an average daily volatility of roughly 60%, while gold’s volatility was at about 15%. By Frances Yue

PHOTO: WORLD GOLD COUNCIL

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-much-for-digital-gold-why-bitcoin-remains-lackluster-while-gold-had-a-record-run-abc1d07d?mod=home-page


6. New York Population Exodus-Financial Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/6c490381-d2f0-4691-a65f-219fab2a2202


7. The Modern Family: Married Households Decline to 47% in the U.S. Share of U.S. Households by Married Couples, Other Families, and Nonfamilies (1950–2023)

From Barry Ritholtz Blog https://ritholtz.com/2024/08/sunday-reads-383/

Source: @econovisuals


8. Top 100 Political Donors in Presidential Election = $1.2B

Barrons Campaigns this election season have raised roughly $7.2 billion, with the top 100 donors pitching in $1.2 billion, according to campaign-finance tracker OpenSecrets. The contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump—and the hundreds of down-ballot races in Congress—is on track to be one of the most expensive campaigns ever. It is being increasingly bankrolled by a handful of billionaires and some hundred millionaires seeking to bend the U.S. and the regulations that govern it to their will.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-harris-election-campaign-billionaires-megadonors-6cf28b0c?mod=past_editions


9. Mental menu: Your food choices may be causing anxiety and depression

By The Conversation  Optimizing mood with food

The most obvious way to stabilize blood sugar levels is to decrease sugar and carbohydrate intake. However, this is not the only way. Research has proven that simple changes can drastically mitigate volatile blood sugar fluctuations. Some strategies to stabilize blood sugar and optimize mood include:

  • Make low glycemic index carbohydrates such as parboiled rice, whole grain bread and al dente pasta dietary staples, and be mindful of how many high glycemic index carbohydrates you consume. I give my patients this guide to increase their awareness of the glycemic index of various carbohydrates.
  • Eat carbohydrates earlier in the day, such as breakfast or lunchtime, as opposed to later in the day, like dinner or, worse yet, as a nighttime snack. Our hormones follow a circadian rhythm, and carbs eaten earlier in the day produce a smaller blood sugar spike compared with carbs eaten later in the day.
  • Avoid eating carbohydrates on their own, such as snacking on a box of crackers or downing a bowl of rice. Always strive to combine carbohydrates with proteins such as beans, nuts, meat and fish, or with healthy fats such as olive oil and avocado. The combination of nutrients slows down the digestion of carbohydrates and thereby produces a smaller blood sugar spike.
  • Eat carbohydrates at the end of the meal, after eating vegetables and protein first. Just changing the order in which foods are eaten can drastically lower the blood sugar spike that comes after.
  • Eat a salad dressed with olive oil and vinegar prior to eating carbohydrates. The combination of vegetables, acid from the vinegar and fat from the olive oil, all work together to slow carbohydrate absorption and minimize the resultant blood sugar spike.

Mary Scourboutakos is a family medicine resident and nutrition expert at Eastern Virginia Medical School.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

https://studyfinds.org/food-choices-anxiety-depression


10. Circle of Competence-Farnam Street Blog

Mental Models

Circle of Competence 

“The first rule of competition is, you are more likely to win if you play where you have an advantage. Doing so requires a firm understanding of what you know and what you don’t know. Your circle of competence is your personal sphere of expertise, the area where your knowledge and skills are concentrated. It’s the domain where you have a deep understanding, where your judgments are reliable, and your decisions are sound. 

The size of your circle isn’t as important as knowing the boundaries. The wise person is the one who knows the limits of their knowledge, who can say with confidence, “This falls within my circle,” or “This is outside my area of expertise.” 

Operating within your circle of competence is a recipe for confidence and effectiveness. But venturing outside your circle of competence is a recipe for trouble. You’re like a sailor navigating unfamiliar waters without a map, at the mercy of currents and storms you don’t fully understand. This isn’t to say that you should never venture outside your circle. Learning new things, gaining new skills, and mastering new domains is one of the most beautiful things about life. 

Celebrate your expertise, but also acknowledge your limitations.” 

— Source: The *Updated* Great Mental Models v1: General Thinking Tools

https://fs.blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 22 2024

1. Stock Buybacks on Track for Record Year

The Market Ear

https://themarketear.com/the-newsletter


2. The Small Cap Profit Recovery

Small cap EPS outlook. “The profits recovery has once again been pushed out another quarter – with 3Q S&P 600 y/y EPS growth now projected to be negative.”

Jill Carey Hall – BofA, h/t @mikezaccardi


3. Tech stocks dominate the list of hedge funds top 20 equity positions

Tech stocks currently account for 16% of hedge funds’ portfolios compared to 30% of the wider S&P 500 index by market value, the blog notes.


4. XLF: Financial Sector ETF – Chart Has Not Broken Uptrend Line Since Coming Out of 2008 Crisis

XLF Blue Trend Line Unbroken

www.stockcharts.com


5. Coca-Cola Took 13 Years to Recover from 1998 Highs

Kailash Concepts-The chart below shows the evolution of Coke’s market cap into its 1998 peak and a decade after. A full 10 years after it peaked in 1998, the company’s equity had fallen nearly 60 billion dollars. From the stock’s high in 1998, with dividends reinvested, a buyer of Coca-Cola stock did not break even until March of 2011. Nearly 13 years to breakeven on one of America’s most storied and safest blue-chips. A doubling of sales and a 233% increase in profits is what it took to overcome that hefty 1998 multiple.

Kailash Concepts, LLC – Behavioral Finance, Portfolio Strategy & Quantamental Tool Kits


6. Macy’s Chart at 1998 Levels


7. Will Sodium Replace Lithium in Batteries?

Natron Energy Announces Plans for $1.4 Billion Giga-Scale Sodium-Ion Battery Manufacturing Facility in North Carolina
Edgecombe County, NC facility to produce 24 GW of Natron’s revolutionary sodium-ion batteries annually, representing a 40x scale-up of current production capacityNatron to invest nearly $1.4 billion in the facility, supported in part by a North Carolina Job Development Investment Grant (JDIG), creating more than 1,000 high-quality local jobs and growing the state’s economy by $3.4 billion over the next 12 years
Partnership to meet the rapidly expanding demand for critical power, industrial and grid energy storage solutionsNatron’s high-performance sodium-ion batteries outperform lithium-ion batteries in power density and recharging speed, do not require lithium, cobalt, copper, or nickel, and are non-flammable
BUSINESS WIRE)–Natron Energy, Inc. (“Natron” or “the Company”), a global leader in sodium-ion battery technology, today announced plans to build the first sodium-ion battery gigafactory in the United States. The facility will be located in Edgecombe County, NC, and is expected to produce 24GW of Natron’s revolutionary sodium-ion batteries annually at full capacity. Natron’s sodium-ion batteries offer higher power density, more cycles, a domestic U.S. supply chain, and unique safety characteristics over other battery technologies.
“North Carolina’s momentum in the clean energy economy reaches epic proportions with today’s news”
The nearly 1.2 million sq. ft. facility, located at the 437-acre Kingsboro megasite, will represent a total investment of nearly $1.4 billion from Natron Energy, facilitated in part by a Job Development Investment Grant (JDIG) approved by the state’s Economic Investment Committee earlier today. Today’s news was announced by Governor Roy Cooper at an Edgecombe County event attended by Natron executives, North Carolina Commerce Secretary Machelle Baker Sanders, and a number of local officials. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240815622233/en/Natron-Energy-Announces-Plans-for-1.4-Billion-Giga-Scale-Sodium-Ion-Battery-Manufacturing-Facility-in-North-Carolina

LIT Chart- I have shared this chart many times on way down


8. Population Turns Negative in China

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management
Population growth in China has now turned negative. This is important because a growing labor force used to be a strong driver of growth in China. Combined with falling home prices and ongoing trade wars with Europe and the US, the headwinds to growth in China are intensifying. One implication for markets is continued downward pressure on commodity prices.


9. Labor Day Travel Seen Climbing 9% After Record US Summer

Bloomberg By Antonia Mufarech  
Traffic on highway 101 in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, June 29, 2023. More than 43 million motorists will drive 50 miles or more from their homes this Independence Day weekend, according to a forecast from AAA. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg) 

Bookings for domestic travel over the US Labor Day weekend are up 9% from last year, according to motor club AAA.

While the estimate only includes travel booked through AAA, the data adds to a sanguine picture for summer fuel demand in the US. Domestic travel was forecast to reach a record over the July 4 holiday week, and seen at a 20-year high for the Memorial Day weekend before that. Growth in travel has remained resilient in the US this year, supported by pump prices that are trending lower. Retail gasoline prices for Labor Day weekend are seen at $3.50 a gallon compared with $3.81 last year, said AAA. 
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/08/19/labor-day-travel-seen-climbing-9-after-record-us-summer/

https://www.airlines.org/news-update/a4a-predicts-record-setting-summer-travel-season-for-u-s-airlines/


10. Warren Buffett Says True Success in Life Comes Down to Just 12 Key Decisions. Here’s Your Checklist -INC

https://www.inc.com/
EXPERT OPINION BY BILL MURPHY JR., FOUNDER OF UNDERSTANDABLY AND CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC. @BILLMURPHYJR
 
Warren Buffett is known for two things: making money and giving advice.
In his Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders last year, Buffett wrote that his success over 58 years was mainly the result of “about a dozen truly good decisions — that would be one every five years.”

He listed just a few of these decisions, but having written a lot about Buffett (and also having studied all of his shareholder letters), I believe you can use Buffett’s well-documented life as a framework to inspire just about anyone to make these kinds of truly good decisions.
So here’s a checklist: 12 life decisions that lead to success, using Buffett’s example:

1. The decision to nurture curiosity.

Let’s start with one that starts early — early in life, and early on a journey to success. In fact, it’s so early that I tend to think of this as something that people might do to help their kids find success, even before they know what the word means.
In Buffett’s case, I think we can point to two experiences, both of which happened before he turned 10 years old, that he says sparked real interest. The first was that he borrowed a book called One Thousand Ways to Make $1,000 from the Omaha public library and read it over and over.
The second was that once he started showing interest in finance and the stock market, his father took him on a tour of the New York Stock Exchange.

2. The decision to get started.

Curiosity is great, but the next step has to do with experimentation and execution. Buffett has talked a lot about the first businesses he founded — things like a paper route, detailing cars, and buying cases of Coca-Cola from his grandfather’s grocery store and selling the individual bottles at a markup.
Even at 93 years old, Buffett remembers many of these early ventures in detail — and he has a highly unusual advantage. In short, Buffett reports that he has saved a copy of every federal income tax return he ever filed, dating back to 1944.

3. The decision to find mentors.

Nobody does anything worthwhile alone. Most of us mere mortals need mentors to show us the way.
Buffett has talked at length about his first and most important mentor in business: the man he describes as his “investing hero,” Benjamin Graham, who died in 1976 at age 82. In fact, one of the reasons Buffett decided to attend Columbia University’s business school was that Graham was a professor there.

4. The decision to be bold.

Fortune favors the bold, they say. Actually, the Romans said it. Probably my favorite early Buffett story about boldness has to do with what he decided to do on a January weekend in 1951.
Having learned that Graham, his investing hero and professor, was chairman of Government Employees Insurance Company, or Geico, which was to Buffett at the time “an unknown company in an unfamiliar industry,” he decided to take the train to Washington, show up at the company, and ask about it.
Serendipitous result: Lorimer Davidson, who would later become CEO of Geico, gave Buffett a four-hour explanation and tour of the insurance industry. Fast-forward quite a few years, and Buffett’s Berkshire Hathway wound up owning Geico.

5. The decision to be healthy.

“You only get one mind and one body. And it’s got to last a lifetime,” Buffett famously told a group of students. “But if you don’t take care of that mind and that body, they’ll be a wreck 40 years later…. It’s what you do right now, today, that determines how your mind and body will operate 10, 20, and 30 years from now.”
The irony here is that Buffett has never been known particularly for exercise or healthy habits, and says he has “the diet of a 6-year-old.” Actually, there’s no way I’d let my 6-year-old consume as much candy, red meat, and can after can of Coca-Cola as Buffett does — but then again, he has lived to be 93 and counting.

6. The decision to nurture relationships.

One of the decisions Buffett listed in the shareholder letter that sparked this whole exercise was his decision to work with Charlie Munger, who passed away last year but was Buffett’s partner for decades.
But Buffett talks about many other crucial partners and relationships as well, among them Thomas Murphy (no relation to me, as far as I know) who was chair and chief executive officer of Capital Cities / ABC Inc., and Chuck Feeney, a billionaire turned intention-former billionaire. (We’ll talk more about Feeney below.)

7. The decision to plan for afterward.

Nobody lives forever, and once he began knocking on the door of nonagenarian status, Buffett began to acknowledge this himself — although he does like to joke about being an exception to the actuarial tables.
Finally, in 2021, he explained the succession plan for Berkshire Hathaway, which will be led by Greg Abel, who is currently the head of all non-insurance businesses at Berkshire Hathaway.

8. The decision to cut your losses.

So many people never learn this lesson, and as someone once put it, they wind up spending their entire lives in the wrong room rather than admit they might have picked an incorrect door.
In Buffett’s case, one of the big examples and decisions involved his acknowledgment, after years of trying, that the textile business — the core of Berkshire Hathaway’s business for more than its first 100 years — was no longer viable in the United States.

9. The decision to laugh.

Life is happier when you laugh more. And while Berkshire Hathaway is a serious business — what’s more serious than money, investments, and people’s futures? — it’s striking how often Buffett’s letters, speeches, and interviews are peppered with jokes.
He’s partial to the corny kind, and also to the bawdy kind that, if you heard your grandfather tell them, would leave you on the fence about whether to laugh or cringe. Here’s one from the 2011 shareholder letter that I don’t mind quoting:
A good underwriter needs an independent mindset akin to that of the senior citizen who received a call from his wife while driving home.
“Albert, be careful,” she warned, “I just heard on the radio that there’s a car going the wrong way down the interstate.”
“Mabel, they don’t know the half of it,” replied Albert. “It’s not just one car, there are hundreds of them.”

10. The decision to teach.

They call Buffett the Oracle of Omaha, and he clearly loves the role. In fact, there are so many moments in his letters and other communications in which he makes asides to offer advice or hard-learned lessons that teaching truly seems to be his second calling.
One of my favorite examples here is the advice he gave verbatim twice over the years, in both the 1987 and 2003 shareholder letters. (Maybe he thought the audiences had turned over sufficiently in the interim?)
Anyway, it’s this, and it really goes back to the first item on the list: “Develop your eccentricities when young.”

11. The decision to do nothing.

This one is important: Besides the limited number of very good decisions Buffett says he’s made, the other key to success is simply not to do anything when you don’t see any good option. Instead of the old adage, “Don’t just stand there, do something,” Buffett suggests the opposite: Don’t just do something, stand there!
Actually, let’s use his precise quote: “The trick is, when there is nothing to do, do nothing.”

12. The decision to give back.

This is where we get back to Chuck Feeney, who I mentioned all the way back in item No. 6 on this list. Feeney was a multi-billionaire who made it his life goal to give away all of his money.

It was Feeney’s example that inspired Buffett to team up with Bill Gates to launch the Giving Pledge, and get more than 200 other billionaires to sign it as well.

I write more about these kinds of decisions and insights in my free e-book, Warren Buffett Predicts the Future.
More than his wealth, more than his advice, more than his 12 decisions — many years from now, these are the kinds of things for which Buffett will be best remembered.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 20 2024

1. History of VIX Crashes

@Charlie Bilello
They don’t appear to be. Following the biggest $VIX declines in the past the S&P 500 has been higher 1 year later 100% of the time with an average total return of +14.3%. 


2. Ex-Shelter and Auto Insurance…CPI Negative

The latest Core CPI reading last week provided good news for the Federal Reserve, and so did its internals. Shelter and auto-insurance components continued to account for the bulk of inflation, but, as we have noted previously, both these components are lagging relative to current, real-world conditions and will eventually become disinflationary when they catch up. As our Chart of the Week shows below, core CPI excluding these two components came in at -0.04 MoM.


3. Long-Term Inflation Readings Downward


4. Cybersecurity ETF About to Make New Highs Despite CRWD Blow Up


5. Another REIT Stat

Barrons By Lewis Braham
The REIT sector is now trading at a 10% discount to the S&P 500 in terms of funds from operations, according to Ryan Dobratz, co-manager of the Third Avenue Real Estate Value fund. “If you were to go back over the past 20 years, it has traded at a 30% premium on average,” he says. “And we haven’t seen the REIT index at a discount really outside of the pandemic, the 2008-09 financial crisis, and the early 2000s.” 
https://www.barrons.com/articles/real-estate-staging-comeback-6-funds-7fe2a71b?mod=past_editions

Vanguard REIT Chart Making Its Way Back to 2022 Levels


6. Tesla Big Bet on Self-Driving Car….Software Improving

Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com  
https://www.barrons.com/articles/teslas-self-driving-software-is-getting-better-39031f02?mod=past_editions


7. Chinese Stock Market Back to 2007 Levels

Wolf Street Blog
China’s stock markets have been a long-term horror show for foreign investors. Since the peak in October 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index has plunged 52.5%. Today, at 2,894, it’s back where it had first been in January 2007. Buy and hold forever?


8. Startups Running Leaner -Chartr

The startup squeeze

The startup world is facing rougher seas. Over the past year, the number of fledgling companies closing shop has surged by 60%, and startup bankruptcies are now 7X higher than in 2019, according to data from Carta reported by the FT.
With higher interest rates, funding has dried up for many startups. Anyone involved in AI may still be having success fundraising, but in many other industries the landscape is significantly more challenged than it has been in recent years. Indeed, data from PitchBook reveals that AI and machine learning startups raised some $27 billion last quarter — nearly half of all VC investment. 
With dealmaking slower than it was in 2021, many startups are scrambling, trimming what is often their biggest expense: employees.
Data from Carta shows that headcounts have dropped across the board. For instance, seed stage companies have gone from having nearly 7 employees on average to just over 5, while companies that closed Series C rounds in the first half of 2024 did so with workforces that were, on average, 43% smaller than those of last year.
Interestingly, these reductions appear to be driven more by hiring freezes than outright layoffs. The first 4 months of this year saw the lowest number of new hires for those months in the past 4 years. Most striking, January — which is typically a busy month for recruitment — recorded its lowest number of new hires so far this decade.
It seems the startup world is, perhaps out of necessity, embracing the mantra of “doing more with less.”

www.chartr.com


9. The New Residential Real Estate Commission Structure

WSJ By Nicole Friedman and Laura Kusisto

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/new-real-estate-commission-rules-impact-9a880731


10. Two Things We Constantly Do That Make Our Lives Worse

Psychology Today
How ignoring our weaknesses and strengths leads to unfulfilled potential.
Nick Kabrél, MA, is a psychology researcher at the University of Zurich.

KEY POINTS

  • We often engage in behaviors that worsen our lives, but all of them can be summarized as two key points. 
  • We often sabotage our lives by ignoring our weaknesses, thinking they’re not urgent enough to address. 
  • We also tend to overlook our strengths, failing to develop the potential that could bring us fulfillment. 

What do we do psychologically to live a worse life? When I just started to think of this, I first found many potential actions and thoughts that can make our lives worse. Consider bad habits, resentment, jealousy, arrogance, low self-esteem, and many more. Yet, when I conducted a more thorough analysis and extracted the gist of those behaviors, I realized that all of these actions can be aptly summarized under two key points.
Before we discuss them, let me share an example from my own life. Recently, one client came to my consultation who, at first glance, seemed to embody the image of an ideal man. He ate only healthy food, practiced yoga and meditation daily, listened to meaningful podcasts about physical and mental health, and had a promising career at a reputable company. 
On the surface, his life appeared to be flourishing. However, he sought my help for a reason. As we spoke, I realized that he was engaging in precisely the two detrimental behaviors I had identified. Despite his many positive habits, these two actions were significantly undermining his overall well-being and making his life less fulfilling. So what are those things? 

We know our weak sides, yet we don’t work on them

There are generally two types of people when it comes to confronting personal weaknesses. The first type are those who claim they don’t have any weaknesses, and therefore, see no need to work on anything. As a response, I have only one thing to say: this is a dangerous form of self-deception.
We all have aspects of ourselves that we could improve. Claiming to be flawless is often a sign of a lack of willingness to self-reflect and grow. This mindset leads us to ignore our problems when they are not immediately disruptive. We tend to think, “Unless this issue completely ruins my life, I don’t need to address it,” forgetting that unresolved issues usually resurface when triggered.
The second type are those who acknowledge their weaknesses but procrastinate on addressing them. They might admit, “Yes, there is something within me that needs work,” but for various reasons, they delay taking action. Many people whom I met expressed a desire to seek help from a psychologist or coach someday. This exactly shows that somewhere in the back of their mind, they know that there is a problem they could work on. Yet, what I see is that they continue to waste their time in hesitation and almost certainly will not ever start working on themselves.
Don’t get me wrong—I’m not saying that I don’t engage in those behaviors. On the contrary, I was able to write this piece only because I constantly find these tendencies in my own behavior. So, I also encourage you to be honest with yourself as I am. If you look at your own behavior, can you find something similar there? Do you know where your weak side is? Do you prefer to turn a blind eye to it?

We know our strong sides, yet we don’t work on them

The flip side of ignoring our weaknesses is the tendency to overlook our strengths. I know many people who live an unsatisfactory life. What unites them? They never made an effort to identify their strengths, let alone to use them confidently and develop them further. Our feelings of meaninglessness and dissatisfaction with our lives often stem from the unrealized potential that we could contribute to the world.
People who make their own lives miserable are often those who leave their potential under a parapet. You could say that they are being irresponsible to life itself, as they fail to give the world what they could have offered. Indeed, there are many terrible things in the world that could be fixed by you, by me, or by the client I recently had. Yet, we often choose to remain silent, hiding from the potential great things we could achieve if we only developed our strengths.
We add more problems to our lives when we think along the following lines: “Oh, no, I can’t ask for this promotion; I’m not great enough,” or “I’m not ready for this. I need to become someone important to take on this responsibility,” or “I’m scared of what people will think if I do this.” These are voluntary, and sometimes even conscious, mistakes that evidently make our lives worse.

Where does it lead us?

If you feel that your life is worse than you think it should be, check if you do the two things that I described today. Do you have some weak sides, bad habits, addictions, social anxiety, depressive moods, lack of communication skills, or hesitation about what people think about you? Ask yourself why you haven’t taken steps to address these issues.
Additionally, consider whether you are neglecting opportunities to develop your strengths. Do you lack a good job or a hobby that you are passionate about and could excel in? If so, why aren’t you taking steps to pursue these interests?
Or perhaps you already have a decent job and have achieved some success. Yet, you feel you are not as high as you could be and as you wanted it to be? Why don’t you go in this direction?
I hope this post has helped you realize that a significant part of our life’s dissatisfaction stems from our own actions or inactions regarding personal growth. If you feel your life is not as good as it should be, it might be time to focus on the two key aspects I’ve described.
In my next posts on Psychology Today, I will describe practical steps and strategies to deal with those.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 19 2024

1. History of September Returns

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


2. Tech/Healthcare/Telecom Percentage of Global Equity at Previous Peaks


3. Gains Since August 5th Lows


4. Warren Buffett Updated Holdings


5. Buffett Sale-Snowflake -54% Correction from High to Low

Year to date -32%


6. Commodities vs. Stock Valuations at 50 Year Lows

Jonathan Baird https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/


7. Unfunded Pensions in Europe


8. 109% More Home Listings in South than Northeast and Midwest Combined


9. South Florida Condo Fees +60% Since 2019

From Yahoo Finance

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13739993/florida-real-estate-crisis-condo-owners-slash-prices.html


10. Can Your Mind Heal Your Body?

Psychology Today
Why beliefs, expectations, and perceptions impact our physiology and health. Gina Simmons Schneider Ph.D.

Key points

  • Evidence shows our beliefs influence our health.
  • Expectations about medications shape the body’s response to treatment.
  • Mindfulness provides measurable positive health outcomes.

Faith healers and psychics have long claimed magic powers to heal the body. In the late 19th century, spiritualists asserted that they could heal the sick, speak to the dead, and move objects with the mind.

At that time, psychology was a newly emerging science. American philosopher and psychologist William James, along with a brilliant, multi-disciplinary group of scientists including one who earned a Nobel Prize in medicine, led a serious investigation into clairvoyance and other paranormal phenomena. Their research exposed many charlatans. However, under controlled conditions, they found evidence that some clairvoyants received and communicated information that could not be explained rationally.

Many of these researchers yearned to find scientific evidence supporting life after death and other paranormal events. Battles emerged as one group of researchers fell under the spell of mediums and the other group sought rational explanations for their elaborate ghost-summoning performances. In the end, many of these scientists discovered that belief is a more potent influencer than proof (Blum, D. 2007).

The Power of Belief

Contemporary researchers found evidence that our beliefs have physiological effects on our bodies. In one study, researchers randomly assigned hotel maids into two groups. One group was told that their work met the Surgeon General’s requirements for a healthy exercise regimen. The other group served as a control.

All the maids submitted to physiological measures before and after the study. After four weeks, those who believed their work satisfied the requirements for a healthy lifestyle showed a decrease in weight, blood pressure, body fat, waist-to-hip ratio, and body mass index compared to the control group of maids doing the same work (Crum, A. and Langer, E. 2007).

A study conducted in 2009 looked at a patient with giant cancer tumors in his armpits, groin, and abdomen. His doctors believed he had only days to live. After receiving an experimental drug, his tumors disappeared. When he learned later that the drug failed in clinical trials, his tumors returned.

After that, doctors told him they were giving him a “double strength” medication (a placebo), and the tumors vanished again. Eventually, he read that the drug he took was worthless. He died days later (Vernillo, A. 2009).

In another study, Alia Crum and colleagues wanted to see if our beliefs about the calories consumed would affect our physiology. In this study, they invited a group of participants to come into a lab twice and drink a milkshake. Subjects submitted to physiological tests before and after drinking the milkshake.

On each visit to the lab, the subjects were given a milkshake with a fake nutritional label. On one occasion, they drank what they were told was a “sensible milkshake” of 140 calories. On the second visit, they were told the milkshake was an “indulgent milkshake” with 620 calories. Participants did not know they were drinking a milkshake of 380 calories on both visits to the lab.

The experimenters looked at changes in levels of the hormone ghrelin. Ghrelin is a hormone that goes up and down throughout the day in response to our feelings of hunger and satiation. It goes up to signal we are hungry and goes down when we feel full.

The experimenters were astonished that the hormone responded to the subject’s beliefs about the calories they were consuming. Those who thought they were drinking the “indulgent” shake showed a rapid decrease in ghrelin. Those who thought they were drinking the “sensible” shake showed a flattening of the ghrelin level like one would experience eating a light snack (Crum, A. et al. 2011).

Expectancy Effects

Our expectations about medical treatments influence how the body responds to treatment. In an immunology study involving children with peanut allergies, all subjects were given oral immunotherapy drugs to help desensitize their allergic reactions. Many patients drop out of this treatment due to side effects that cause anxiety. Researchers set out to see if changing the patient’s mindset about side effects might produce better treatment outcomes.

In the study, one group of families was told that non-life-threatening side effects meant that the medication was working as intended to desensitize them to the allergen. The other group was told they might experience non-life-threatening side effects. After six months of immunotherapy, the group told that side effects meant the medication was working experienced less anxiety, better treatment compliance, fewer negative side effects, and had greater desensitization results than the control group.

Many of us go to the eye doctor for our annual prescription and assume our eyesight is static with normal deterioration with aging. Ellen Langer and colleagues at Harvard challenged that assumption. In one experiment, students from MIT’s ROTC program were asked to enter a flight simulator. After taking a vision test, they entered the simulator.

Some were asked to play the role of pilot, aware that pilots need to have perfect vision to qualify. Others merely entered the simulator without performing the duties of a pilot. Forty percent of those designated as “pilots” showed improved vision compared to controls who were not role-playing pilots in the simulator.

In another study, subjects showed improvement in their vision after the experimenter flipped the eyechart so that the letters got larger rather than smaller. Subjects were able to read the smaller print. We expect to fail as the test goes on. Once that expectancy is disrupted, our vision improves (Langer, E. 2023).

The Mind-Body Connection

The mind and body connect in a complex web of neural networks. A recent study published in Nature used precision fMRI to map mind-body connections. The brain’s motor circuits, cognitive functioning, and perception are entwined with basic body functions like breathing, heart rate, pain, and muscle tension (Gordon, E.M. et al., 2023). This shows that we cannot separate our thoughts and perceptions from our physiology.

There is ample evidence that mindfulness, (defined as paying attention to moment-by-moment changes on purpose without judgment), offers significant health benefits. Mindfulness lowers stress-related disease symptoms and inflammation. When we notice negative and positive physical changes it helps us make minor adjustments that prevent injury. Awareness encourages us to seek medical treatment for symptoms sooner, which leads to better health outcomes if we get sick.

These and many more studies demonstrate that the mind can mobilize the body’s healing properties. Begin by harnessing your beliefs in the service of your health and well-being.

Practice mindfulness and notice subtle improvements and discomforts in your body. Provide comfort if needed and understand what fuels your joy and contentment. Visualize positive outcomes while receiving medical treatment. Allow yourself to have positive expectations for your health and future. It may not be magic, but your magnificent human mind is mighty powerful.

Facebook/LinkedIn image: GaudiLab/Shutterstock 

 https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/frazzlebrain/202406/can-your-mind-really-heal-your-body

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 16 2024

1. Interesting Stat on Chat GPT


2. .$3B in Forced Sales (Margin) Crypto First 7 Days in August


3. Consumers Not Slowing at Walmart

Morningbrew One of the main beneficiaries of US consumer spending was Walmart, which said sales increased by 4.2% last quarter, operating income jumped by 8.5%, and digital sales rocketed up 22%. The retailer also raised its outlook for the rest of the year as shoppers power through their weariness about inflation


4. Year to Date-Walmart Doubles the Return of Amazon

www.yahoofinance.com


5. Equal Weight Sector Index…Utilities Outperform Next Closest Sector by 5%

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
Utilities is far and away the best performing equal weight sector through the start of the year. Up almost 16% year-to-date (through 8/14), the Invesco S&P Equal Weight Utilities ETF (RSPU) has outperformed the next highest equal weight sector by over 5%, as seen in the graph below. Equal weighted ETFs can be a measure of how well the average stock is performing, which means the average utility stock has done better than the average stock of any other sector so far this year. In fact, utilities is the only equal weighted sector to outperform the S&P 500 (SPX) YTD

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright-research-platform-login


6. Dip Buyers Stick with Mega Cap Stocks.

Equities: Just give me the largest 50 stocks and forget the rest …

Source: The Daily ShotSource: @markets   Read full article


7. Travel and Leisure Stock Post Covid

https://www.capitalgroup.com


8. China Home Sales Slump to 9-Year Low

Also, While Chinese industrial and retail reports for July were mostly a mixed bag, the elephant in the room remains the ailing housing sector and Thursday’s data showed China’s new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in July.


9. In U.S….Ultra-Luxury Sales Hitting Record

A $115 million purchase of a duplex high above New York’s Central Park in June ended a nearly two-year drought for the city’s ultra-luxury real estate market.

The closing was ultimately a turning point. Less than a month later, a nearby five-story penthouse went for $135 million.
With more than four months of the year still to go, home sales of $100 million or more are on pace to set a new record in the city. Billionaires globally have seen their wealth boom, generating momentum for major home purchases. The pace of sales is spurring optimism among agents tasked with finding buyers for other top listings around the US.

Nationwide, there have been six deals at $100 million or above this year through the end of July, just three shy of a record set in 2021. Those have stretched from Southern California, where an oceanfront estate notched a record for the state at $210 million, to Aspen, Colorado — where a transaction this year crossed the nine-figure threshold for the first time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-16/ultra-luxury-home-sales-in-us-are-on-pace-to-set-a-new-record?srnd=homepage-uk&sref=GGda9y2L


10. Robot’ Dogs of War Deployed in Ukraine

The robotic K-9s, which resemble the commercially developed Unitree Go2 quadruped, have been used to collect data, transport cargo, and perform surveillance.

by Peter Suciu 
“Cry ‘Havoc!’ And let slip the dogs of war” probably wasn’t actually uttered by Roman General Mark Antony. It was simply an invention of William Shakespeare for the play “Julius Caesar.” The line wasn’t even about actual canines. But the passage serves to remind us that man’s best friend has also marched to war for eons. Dogs have tracked enemies, guarded prisoners, and protected soldiers since antiquity. Though these loyal companions are all too willing to put their lives on the line—and in fairness really can’t understand the risks they face—there are now efforts to develop a more disposable version of canine warriors.

Enter the Robot Dogs of War
In June 2022, the U.S. Army announced it would provide Kyiv with a pair of robotic dogs that could aid in clearing minefields and in the disposal of other ordnance. The robotic canines were seen as being just as effective as living, breathing dogs at sniffing out landmines, and they would not be distracted.

Most importantly, the innovation meant that real dogs wouldn’t have to risk life and paw in the process.
Two years later, Ukrainian soldiers from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade are taking to Telegram to share results from field testing of a robotic dog in combat conditions. While robotic dogs have already been used as guards to patrol the perimeter of a military base, the Ukrainian robotic dogs have been employed as scouts near villages on the frontlines around Toretsk, near the destroyed city of Bakhmut.

The robotic K-9s, which resemble the commercially developed Unitree Go2 quadruped, have been used to collect data, transport cargo, and perform surveillance.  “The robotic dog in use possesses advanced technological features that make it especially suitable for such tasks. It has high mobility due to its four-legged design, allowing it to overcome various obstacles and operate on uneven surfaces,” United 24Media reported. “Its balance system ensures stability, while advanced sensors and cameras enable it to accurately perceive its surroundings and avoid obstacles.”

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/robot-dogs-war-deployed-ukraine-212299

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 15 2024

1. What Mall REIT is Beating S&P on 1-Year Returns? SPG Simon Property Group

4.5% Yield   +31% One-Year.


2. XLV Healthcare ETF

Breaks out of a 3-year sideways pattern.

www.stockcharts.com


3. Investors Adding to Healthcare

DC Lite Blog FMS rotation. “Investors increased allocation to bonds, cash, and healthcare … and reduced allocation to equities, Japan, Eurozone, and materials.”

Michael Hartnett – BofA   DC Lite Blog https://www.dailychartbook.com/s/dc-lite


4. Consumer Spending is Favorite Topic of Summer…XRT Retail ETF +2% YTD

Sideways in 2024


5. But…U.S. Economy Grew at Faster than Expected Pace in Q2

From Spilled Coffee Blog
Let’s take a look at that. Did you know that the US economy grew at a faster than expected pace in Q2? Try the third best quarter of GDP growth since Q4 2021.

Source: Brian Sozzi


6. Talk of a Government Bitcoin Reserve…..Right Now Its Gold and Oil

Barrons By Joe Light

https://www.barrons.com/articles/crypto-volatility-makes-a-u-s-bitcoin-reserve-unlikely-6d960a30?mod=past_editions


7. Has The FED Largesse Has Led to This Chart?

Zerohedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/it-became-necessary-destroy-global-economy-save-it


8. Chicago Population Dropped 9 Years in a Row

Illinois Policy Bryce Hill

Chicago population hits lowest point since 1920 (illinoispolicy.org)    
Found at King Report https://mramseyking.com/


9. Demographics Line Up for Housing…If We Can Get Supply and Affordability


10. Research Shows Coffee Makes You Healthier and Happier, but If You Want to Boost Your Energy Level and Memory, There’s a 7-Day Catch

Drink coffee for health benefits? Absolutely. Drink coffee to kick-start your energy levels and even your memory? Definitely–but not every day of the month.
 
Expert Opinion By Jeff Haden, Contributing editor, Inc. @jeff_haden
Coffee does plenty of cool things.
Coffee can reduce your risk of cancer up to 20 percent, your risk of type 2 diabetes by 30 percent, and your risk of Parkinson’s disease by 30 percent. A study published in Circulation found that coffee can reduce the risk of stroke by 20 percent. A study of over 260,000 people conducted by the NIH found that people who drank four or more cups of coffee a day were nearly 10 percent less likely to become depressed than those who drank none.

Coffee can also make you smarter. While research has found little to no effect from ingesting caffeine prior to creating new memories, one study determined ingesting caffeine after a learning task improved memory recall up to 24 hours later.
Drinking a little coffee kick-start your day? Makes sense. So does drinking a little coffee later in the day to better retain what you’ve learned during the day.

But there is one catch. 

Caffeine blocks adenosine — a nucleoside that modulates physiological processes — from binding to receptors in your brain. When adenosine can’t bind, you feel (or keep feeling) alert and awake. That’s one reason why drinking a lot of coffee makes you feel really awake.
Yet not indefinitely. When your body recognizes that adenosine isn’t binding, your body responds by creating more receptors. A 2012 study found that within three days of consistent caffeine ingestion, the number of adenosine, nicotinic, and muscarinic (a chemical that modulates neuronal excitability) receptors significantly increases.

That’s why you need an extra cup of coffee to kick-start your day. That’s why you need a couple of cups after lunch. In simple terms, your body builds up its tolerance, and the effect diminishes. And that’s why the inevitable caffeine crash — and headache — is so dramatic and even painful; more receptors means your body is even hungrier for caffeine.

As with most things, your constantly caffeinated state becomes your new normal. A 2019 study found that participants in a 20-day study increased their peak cycling power (a proxy for feeling alert and energetic) for the first 15 days of ingesting caffeine. 
The biggest boost came on the first day. After that, adenosine receptors started sprouting like wildflowers. Then the effect steadily diminished, until it reached pre-study levels.

So while coffee will still provide a number of health benefits — potentially reducing the likelihood of cancer, diabetes, Parkinson’s, etc. — the energy and memory boost provided is basically gone.

Unless you periodically hit the reset button. The same study found changes in adenosine receptor levels typically reverse after a 7-day caffeine break. Taking a week off reduces your tolerance and increases the boost you will feel when you start drinking coffee again. 
Keep in mind you don’t have to go cold turkey. While some people take the first week of every month off, others use the week to strategically reduce their intake. Instead of two cups of coffee in the morning, just one. Instead of two cups in the afternoon, just one. The key is to reduce your intake for seven days to allow your adenosine receptor levels to reverse.

How great of a reduction you seek depends on how willing you are to cut your consumption. Just make sure you follow that approach for a whole week; one or two days will make relatively little impact on adenosine receptor levels, and therefore on the benefits when you resume your normal coffee routine.

Research Shows Coffee Makes You Healthier and Happier, but If You Want to Boost Your Energy Level and Memory, There’s a 7-Day Catch | Inc.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 14 2024

1-2. S&P 4 Straight Weeks of Losses….A 5th Week Would Be Rare

S&P has posted 5 straight weeks of losses just once in the past decade.

What Happens After 5 Weeks of Losses?


3. Despite 4 Weeks of S&P Losses…Stock Inflows Still Positive

Global equity fund flows. “Despite the market turmoil, inflows to equities continued for a 16th straight week, actually picking up from the prior week, while inflows to bond funds slowed.”

Deutsche Bank via @samro


4. IGV Software ETF -13% Correction from Highs

Stayed Above Blue Blue Trend Line going back 18 months.

www.stockcharts.com


5. Softbank -37% Correction in Summer Sell Off


6. Starbucks Erases Losses for the Year in One Day


7. Fear and Greed Index Did Hit “Extreme Fear”

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


8. Sell Side Indicator Updated for August…Not Showing “Extreme Bullishness”

Isabelnet Blog

Sell Side Consensus Indicator


9. DJI Chinese Drone Company Accounts for 70-90% of American Drone Market

WSJ By Heather Somerville 
Yet DJI accounts for around 70% to 90% of the American commercial, local government and hobbyist drone market. Real-estate agents, movie producers, firefighters, roof inspectors, utilities and law enforcement have all come to depend on the brand. The Secret Service bought more than 20 of them in 2022 just before restrictions were put in place, according to federal purchasing records.
DJI says a ban could cost the U.S. billions of dollars and impact thousands of jobs. 
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/congresss-plan-to-outlaw-chinese-drones-met-with-protest-c95cf1fe?mod=politics_lead_story


Statista Blog-Global market share of consumer and commercial drone manufacturers in March 2021, based on sales volume

https://www.statista.com/


10. 7 Factors to Choose the Best Retirement Location

PKindness Financial Planning Elliott Appel, CFP®, CLU®, RLP®

Welcome! I’m Elliott, the founder of Kindness Financial Planning, LLC, a fee-only, fiduciary advisor located in Madison, WI working virtually with widows and caregivers across the United States. When I’m not helping people live their ideal life, I’m often cooking for my wife, playing tennis, or hiking.
Once you are retired, you don’t necessarily need to live in the same place. You can consider different factors to choose the best retirement location for you — not needing to worry about your commute to work. 
Where will you go? 
Although there are many different factors to choose the best place to retire, below are 7 factors to help you choose the best retirement location for you. 
You can decide how much weight to put into each one to create a list of possible locations. 

Politics & Demographics – Use a Tool
If you are unsure of where to go, the first step may be to rent a camper and do a cross country road trip for a few months! 
I’m kidding…unless you want to do that, in which case, send me photos along the way. 
The NY Times has an online tool called Where Should You Live? that can help you decide where you should live based on what’s important to you. 
For example, if mountains are really important to me and trees, air quality, restaurants, live music, health care, and less snow are important, I get the results below. I’ve purposely left off any political or demographic information for you to see how it affects things in the example.

You can adjust everything from schools, population, climate, politics, demographics, and more! 
Once you narrow down the list, you could research, select a few favorites, and go visit during different times of the year. 

Community
One of the primary factors you should use to choose your destination is the community you either have or can build. 
Community is a wide-reaching word, which could include family, friends, or other social groups. 
Community offers support, social interactions, and help. Without it, you can feel lonely and isolated. If you are moving to a location where you don’t know anybody, know that it can take years to build community. 
It’s estimated that it takes about 50 hours to go from acquaintance to casual friend, 100 hours to become a “regular” friend, and 200 hours to become a close friend. If you spend two hours a day with someone twice a week, it would take nearly a year to become a close friend. If you spend less time, it would take even longer.
That’s important to keep in mind because it may take a few years to form close friendships if you are moving to a new area. 
I’ve often talked with retirees who moved locations and decided to move back because the new area was too far from friends and family. Others get settled quickly and love it. It’s a mixed bag. 
Uprooting your life to move somewhere you’ve never been can be a costly and time consuming process. Before you do, consider doing a trial run, which I’ll talk about later. 

Healthcare
I hope you stay healthy until the day you die. 
Unfortunately, that’s unlikely. 
As you age, most people need more access to healthcare, even if they want to age in place. Not only do they go more frequently, but they also need to see other specialists. If you live in a rural location where the nearest specialists are a few hours away, that either means you are going to spend more time on the road or you may decide not to see them and accept the health consequences. 
When my dad was diagnosed with Stage IV Lung Cancer, I was thankful he was only an hour away (in good traffic) from Seattle Cancer Care Alliance (now Fred Hutch Cancer Center). 
Since he was only an hour away, that meant he could get a ride to his treatment every three weeks. When he broke his hip, he was close by and had access to excellent surgeons. When he didn’t manage his diabetes well, he could see a doctor who specialized in diabetes medication management. 
As I’ve been told, you tend to “collect” doctors as you get older: primary care provider, surgeons, dentists, cardiologist, ophthalmologist, urologist, audiologist, rheumatologist, and more. 
Those are hard to find in small or rural towns. Better medical care tends to be found in or near larger cities. 

Climate
The climate cannot be stressed enough – in all four seasons, but especially summer and winter. 
I’ve seen people go somewhere in the summer, love an area, but when they visit in winter, decide that a few months of snow and below freezing temperatures are not for them. This is common in the Midwest and Northeast. 
The opposite can be true. You may go somewhere in winter, but despise it in the summer. For example, Arizona is lovely in the winter, but the summers are brutal. 
You want to love, or at least tolerate, the place you are moving to year-round. If you can’t, then you may want to consider living in two locations. This is a common setup where people escape either the winter or summer in the primary location and go to a more desirable area for a few months. 
Some people buy a second home while others rent to give them flexibility and less upfront costs. 
The most important advice I can give is to go visit in different seasons to see how you like it. Could you tolerate the temperature? Can you deal with any allergies? How do you feel about the different natural disasters in that area? Are you okay shoveling snow or not going outside much if it’s above 100 degrees? 

Income Inequality
Income inequality isn’t something I thought about until I was living in the Midwest and went to Los Angeles for a weekend. 
As we drove around, I felt uncomfortable, but I couldn’t put my finger on it. As we were leaving, I think it had to do with the income inequality.
I grew up in the suburbs in Washington state. There was income inequality, but it wasn’t stark. A few people had nicer cars and homes, but it was the difference between a Honda and a BMW — not a Honda and a Lamborghini.
I spent all of my adult life in Seattle up until a few years ago. Seattle has a lot of income inequality, but it’s also hidden. There are Lamborghini’s, but you also have millionaires driving around in Subarus.
When we moved to the Midwest, I didn’t think about it much, but I’d guess there is less income inequality here. I rarely see BMWs. I’ve seen one or two Lamborghini’s. I see more expensive pickup trucks than anything.
As a financial planner, I see the salaries of clients I work with and the salary ranges jobs offer. It’s overwhelmingly a much narrower band in the Midwest, such as $40,000 to $200,000.
For people I work with in Seattle, the band tends to be $150,000 to $1,000,000+. These are only the folks I’ve worked with, which by nature of what I do is going to be skewed to a higher level of income. The range is much higher in Seattle when you factor in people making minimum wage. 
As I drove around LA, the income inequality was uncomfortable. I’d be stopped at a traffic light and see millions of dollars worth of cars next to someone sleeping under a tarp.
While living in Seattle, I saw plenty of people who are unhoused and lots of income inequality, but it wasn’t as drastic as LA. Plus, having lived in the Midwest for a few years now, it’s not something I see regularly anymore.
It reminded me of the studies that say that much of our happiness is strongly related to our perception of our wealth relative to others.
Basically, the less you have relative to others, the less happy you may be.
If you make $500,000 (an objectively high income), that may not feel good if you are constantly surrounded by people making $1,000,000. Those two incomes buy drastically different lifestyles.
If you make $80,000 and most people around you make $70,000 to $100,000, you may feel better. That range won’t buy drastically different lifestyles.
Let’s bring this back to deciding where to live.
Obviously, family and friend relationships, access to healthcare, weather, activities, and other factors are important to consider, but it’s worth considering income inequality.
If you are frequently comparing yourself to others who have more, you may find yourself less happy. If you are someone who is interested in volunteering in order to close the gap in income inequality, perhaps you want to live in a location with high income inequality.
Personally, when I was living in Seattle, I’d get an itch to buy a nicer car every once in a while. I didn’t, but it was there.
I haven’t felt that itch once in the Midwest.

Airport Access
If you hardly travel and most of your family is within driving distance, airport access may be less important, but for people who travel a few times a year, airport access can make a huge difference. 
If you have an airport with many direct flights across the country, you can usually spend half a day traveling to see family and friends. If you have a smaller airport or a regional airport, you usually need to spend at least a full day traveling.
I noticed this when I moved from Seattle to the Midwest. I used to be able to catch an early flight and enjoy the afternoon or evening in the city to which I was flying. Now, it’s usually at least two flights and a full day of travel. 
In retirement, that may matter less, but it can take a toll when you are spending 10 or more hours in airports or planes when you are used to 4 to 6 hours. 
Retirees have told me that moving away from a large airport has been tough. They may have been within an hour’s drive, but after moving, they are three or four hours away.
It’s harder when your family has a medical emergency or you are traveling regularly to see grandkids. That extra time can be stressful. 
It’s not a dealbreaker for them, but it is an adjustment. 

Taxes
Although people often think about taxes first, taxes are last because in almost every circumstance, everything else is more important. 
Taxes are important, and I don’t want anybody to pay more than they are legally obligated, but I often see people contemplating uprooting their life to move somewhere for lower taxes. 
If you have the ability to pay taxes and live somewhere you love, why change it? 
Let’s say you can move somewhere and pay $5,000 per year less in taxes. Is it worth being away from family? Is it worth being in a harsher climate? Is it worth changing your life completely? 
For most people, the answer is no. 
Plus, most people only look at one or two types of taxes when they consider moving. 
You shouldn’t only consider income taxes. You should be considering:

  • Federal income taxes
  • State and local taxes
  • Property taxes
  • Capital gains taxes
  • Sales taxes
  • Inheritance taxes
  • Gift taxes
  • Estate taxes

Even within income, types of income can be taxed differently from state-to-state. For example, distributions from 401(k)s and IRAs are typically not taxable in Pennsylvania. 
People often quote Texas as having no income tax, but property taxes could be 1.7%, which may be more than double your current location. 
Although not directly a tax, you may want to consider the cost of living. There are different calculators online that do a decent job of comparing taxes, housing, and food. 

While taxes can become important, particularly in the case of state estate taxes and inheritance goals, most people focus too much on taxes and not the quality of life that they have in a location with higher taxes. 
Try It Out
One of the biggest mistakes I see people make is not try out a new location before selling their home and moving. 
Some people move and love it, but there are people who make the move, regret it, and end up going back. 
That can be a very costly and disruptive decision. 
Given the growth of platforms where you can rent homes for extended periods, it can be a good investment to rent a home for a month during two different seasons in the place you want to live. You want to do it for long enough to get a feel for what it’s like to live there. 
How is the traffic? How is the weather? Are the people friendly? Is it easy to get around and travel? Is there good healthcare nearby? Could you see yourself building community? 
Renting a house for a couple of months might be $10,000 or less. When you consider the cost of moving, selling a home, potential capital gains on a sale, and the time it takes to do everything, that $10,000 could be a small investment in helping you decide whether living in a new location in retirement is worth it. 
Final Thoughts – My Question for You
Choosing the best retirement location for you is not easy. 
It may be where you are located, but it may be somewhere else. 
Although taxes often feel important, don’t discount your community or the community you can build, healthcare, climate, income inequality, and airport access.
Lastly, don’t forget to try it out before you make a big move! 
I’ll leave you with one question to act on. 
What factors are you going to consider in your move? 
Disclaimer: This article is for general information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. It is not a recommendation for purchase or sale of any security or investment advisory services. Please consult your own legal, financial, and other professionals to determine what may be appropriate for you. Opinions expressed are as of the date of publication, and such opinions are subject to change. Click for full disclaimer.

https://kindnessfp.com/7-factors-to-choose-the-best-retirement-location/   Found at Abnormal Returns www.abnormalreturns.com

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 13 2024

1. VIX Stock Volatility Index Had Largest Peak to Close Move Ever Monday Last Week

@Charlie Bilello
After hitting a high of 65.73 on Monday morning, the $VIX would end the day at 38.57. That 41% decline was the largest peak to close move ever.


2. Russell 2000 Small Caps -8.5% in August


3. Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on Commodities…Contra Indicator?

Found at Daily Dirt Nap Newsletter

https://www.dailydirtnap.com


4. Follow-Up to Yesterday’s REIT Chart

All-Star Charts

https://get.allstarcharts.com


5. Semiconductor Index -27% Sell Off Bounces at 200-Day


6. DJT Trump Media…$70 in March….$25 Last

DJT 50day about to go thru 200day to downside.


7. Foreign Investors Pull Record Amount of Money From China

Story by Bloomberg News

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-AA1oD8vy


8. Top 11 Holders of Bitcoin in World


9. YouTube Ad Empire


10. Creatine for Brain Energy?

Psychology Today
-Potential benefits for fatigue, foggy thinking, sleep loss, and even dementia Austin Perlmutter M.D.
 
Key points

  • Creatine aids brain energy by boosting ATP regeneration, possibly improving cognitive performance.
  • Studies suggest creatine may help with fatigue, brain fog, and sleep deprivation in stressful conditions.
  • Early research shows creatine might benefit Alzheimer’s and cognitive decline, though more studies are needed.

To think, act and feel your best, your brain needs constant access to high quality energy. Is it possible that creatine can help our brains regenerate energy, and can this combat foggy thinking, fatigue, poor cognitive performance, dementia, and sleep deficits? In this post, we’re breaking down the powerful new science showing how creatine can influence brain energetics. We’ll talk about mechanisms and the latest clinical research. Note: this is purely for educational purposes, and you should talk to your healthcare provider before taking any supplement.

Let’s Start With a Quick Background on Brain Energetics
The brain, despite its relatively small size, consumes about 20% of the body’s total energy, primarily in the form of glucose, which our brain imports through the blood-brain barrier from our bloodstream. Glucose is metabolized through glycolysis and the citric acid cycle, generating ATP (adenosine triphosphate), which powers our neurons. Additionally, the brain can use ketone bodies as an alternative energy source, particularly during periods of low glucose availability, such as fasting. Dysregulation of brain metabolism is implicated in various neurological conditions, especially Alzheimer’s disease, where impaired glucose metabolism and mitochondrial dysfunction play significant roles. We’ll come back to this.

What Is Creatine and Where Does it Come From?
Before we get into the technical aspects of creatine, let’s start with the basics of what creatine is. Creatine is a compound made naturally in our bodies out of the amino acids arginine, glycine, and methionine. This synthesis primarily occurs in the liver and in the brain. Creatine also can be found in certain foods, in particular animal foods. It’s notable that for this reason, when compared to omnivores, vegans consume substantially less dietary creatine, and vegetarians may have lower levels of circulating and muscle creatine than omnivores. Over 90% of our creatine stores are located in our skeletal muscle.

Creatine Supplementation
Ok, now let’s shift to talk about taking creatine supplementation. There are over 1000 peer-reviewed papers on this topic. There are several different forms of creatine, but the majority of the data on efficacy and use comes specifically from creatine monohydrate. Creatine monohydrate is highly popular in athletes, and has been extensively studied and deemed relatively safe at doses up to 30 grams a day for up to five years in healthy people, although there are reports of GI issues, muscle cramps and problems with heat tolerance. Though these topics are still being investigated, a recent review entitled “Common questions and misconceptions about creatine supplementation: What does the scientific evidence really show?” looked at popular misconceptions about creatine, finding that in healthy individuals, there’s not much data that creatine is linked to hair loss, kidney issues, muscle cramping or fewer benefits in women, and that oral creatine monohydrate is likely to be the best form, probably around 3-5 grams a day.

Brain Energetic Mechanisms of Creatine
The core pathway identified that tethers creatine to everything from exercise benefits to brain health is a bidirectional reaction where phosphate groups can be added to creatine to allow for the regeneration of energy currency called adenosine triphosphate, or ATP. Here’s the basics of how it works. Creatine can have a phosphate added to it using an enzyme called creatine kinase. The new molecule, called phosphocreatine, can then be used to regenerate ATP from ADP in places of high energy use, specifically the muscle and brain. Creatine is removed by the body after it degrades into creatinine, a molecule that can be excreted through urine.

How does creatine get into the brain? There are several transporters, including the creatine transporter one or CT1 and a sodium chloride protein that allows for dietary creatine and creatine made in our livers to pass the blood-brain barrier, but the CT1 pathway seems to be more important in regulating uptake.

Some research suggests that CT1 receptors may be decreased in the context of high consumption of supplementary creatine, which could potentially limit the ability of supplemental creatine to reach the brain. As a way to bypass this potential resistance, there’s some data suggesting that the consumption of a creatine precursor called guanidinoacetic acid or an analog of creatine called cyclocreatine may help bypass this potential resistance.

How Creatine May Acutely Boost Brain Energy
Let’s now talk about the potential role of creatine under conditions of acute brain stressors. In the course of our days, our brains can experience a host of different stressors like fatigue, lower oxygen, and sleep deprivation. These stressors are believed to affect and be a reflection of brain energetics. Here, research suggests that creatine may have an especially important role. In one 2015 clinical study, young people who experienced oxygen deprivation had improvements in cognition when given placebo. A 2002 study using 8 grams of daily creatine supplementation was found to reduce mental fatigue during math calculations. A small study on sleep-deprived rugby players from 2011 found that creatine supplementation attenuated sleep-related declines in performance, and a new study in Nature Scientific Reports published in 2024 found that creatine supplementation improved cognitive performance and altered brain energetic signals in healthy people after sleep deprivation.

Could Creatine Target States of Chronic Brain Energetic Depletion?
In addition to acute brain stressors that reflect and influence brain energetics, many chronic brain issues are linked to impaired brain energetics. Of these, the best example may be Alzheimer’s disease, a condition that affects almost 60 million people around the world and up to 1 in 3 people over age 85. Alzheimer’s disease is sometimes called “Type 3 diabetes” because it’s been clearly linked to impairments in brain energetics. Specifically, data suggests that a decrease in brain use of glucose (called “cerebral hypometabolism”) is an early indicator of Alzheimer’s disease, and may be a driver of disease progression. Importantly, a decrease in brain glucose utilization has also been found in older adults in general. So how might creatine factor into the conversation?

Generally speaking, the research looking at the potential for creatine as a way to benefit brain energetics in Alzheimer’s or age-related cognitive decline is very early and almost exclusively preclinical. However, some promising findings have many researchers invested in continuing pursuit of this emerging science. In a 2023 paper entitled “Creatine as a Therapeutic Target in Alzheimer’s Disease,” the authors state that despite the existing lack of clinical data, “Creatine may serve as a potential target for prevention and therapy and Creatine monohydrate supplementation may be beneficial in AD,” and advocate for more clinical data. The good news is that there’s at least one protocol for a pilot study on this very topic now published.

Putting it Together
Creatine is a naturally occurring compound that is found in our food and is synthesized in our bodies under normal states. Creatine’s known mechanism of action indicates that it plays a role in energy regeneration, and this may have significant implications for brain energetics. While the research is still early, there’s some initial signal that creatine may help to offset energetic depletion states in our brains both acutely and long term.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-modern-brain/202408/creatine-for-brain-energy

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 12 2024

1. Bonds Negatively Correlated with Stocks Again

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading
As the S&P 500 Index lost about 6% across the first three trading days of August, the Treasury market posted gains of almost 2%. That enabled investors with 60% of their assets in stocks and 40% in bonds — a once time-honored strategy for building a diversified portfolio with less volatility — to outperform one that merely held equities.


2. Fed Fund Futures Pricing in 100 Basis Points in Cuts 2024

https://fundstrat.com/


3. Vanguard REIT Index Now Positive for the Year


4. AI Weight in S&P

MarketEar Blog

https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


5. S&P Earnings Expanding Beyond Mag 7


6. Most Neglected Stocks and Most Crowded Stocks in Each Sector

From Spilled Coffee Blog 

This is the list of the most neglected stock within each sector:

These are the most crowded stock with each sector:

Source: Daily Chartbook


7. Top100 Interval Funds Annualized Growth Rate of 39%


8. More Data Centers in U.S. than Rest of World Combined

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management

There are more than 5000 data centers in the US. In Germany there are 521 and in China 449, see chart below.


9. The U.S. Only Imports Half of What Europe Does

Barrons

https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-companies-tik-tok-huawei-7e9c6444?mod=past_editions


10. David Brooks “Mental Diet”

From Farnam Street Blog  

When people worry about your mental diet, they tend to fret about the junk you’re pouring into your brain—the trashy videos, the cheap horror movies, the degrading reality TV, and … I’m not so worried about the dangers of mental junk food. That’s because I’ve found that many of the true intellectuals I’ve met take pleasure in mental junk food too. Having a taste for trashy rom-coms hasn’t rotted their brain or made them incapable of writing great history or doing deep physics. No, my worry is that, you won’t put enough really excellent stuff into your brain. I’m talking about what you might call the “theory of maximum taste.” This theory is based on the idea that exposure to genius has the power to expand your consciousness. If you spend a lot of time with genius, your mind will end up bigger and broader than if you spend your time only with run-of-the-mill stuff. The theory of maximum taste says that each person’s mind is defined by its upper limit—the best that it habitually consumes and is capable of consuming.”

— David Brooks (lightly edited for clarity)   

https://fs.blog/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 09 2024

1. Capital Spending by the Big 4

Random Walk, by Moses Sternstein https://www.therandomwalk.co/


2. Capex Not Helping Startups–Struggling AI Startups Look for a Bailout From Big Tech

WSJ
Amazon, Google and Microsoft are using a new type of deal to get employees and technology from artificial-intelligence firms—
By Berber JinTom Dotan and Miles Kruppa

Artificial intelligence startups raised billions of dollars last year, aiming to become winners in the latest tech-driven boom. Now many are struggling to survive—and asking Silicon Valley’s biggest companies to bail them out. 

At least three once-hot AI startups have been rescued via a new type of deal that many in the tech industry say are acquisitions in everything but name. These deals have the advantage of skirting the typical regulatory process at a time when big tech’s growing control over generative AI is being scrutinized by governments.

On Friday, Character.AI announced a deal for Google to use its technology and hire many of its researchers and executives, including its co-founders Noam Shazeer and Daniel De Freitas. Google negotiated a licensing fee worth $2 billion for the startup’s technology to help buy out early investors, people familiar with the matter said. 

The two companies considered an outright acquisition, but concluded that was unlikely to get past regulators, according to a person familiar with the matter. 

In June, Adept AI struck a deal in which Amazon agreed to hire most of the startup’s employees and paying about $330 million to license its technology, according to people with knowledge of the arrangement. That was enough, along with Adept’s remaining cash, to pay back investors, but a disappointing turn for a company that just last year was valued at $1 billion.
Microsoft cast the mold for this deal type in March when it hired nearly all the employees from AI developer Inflection to start a new consumer AI division and paid around $650 million to license its technology. 

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/struggling-ai-startups-look-for-a-bailout-from-big-tech-3e635927


3. Bitcoin -15% in 7 Trading Days

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


4. Stock Leader Monster Beverage -27% from Highs…Back to 2022 Levels


5. Micron Top to Bottom Correction -45%

$156 Top to $85 Low


6. Latin America Chart

An International Market Breaking Down…50d thru 200d to downside.


7. Costco Pulling a Netflix Password Clean-Up

Morningbrew Blog
RETAIL Good luck sneaking in here anymore 
Soon the only way you’re gonna be getting into Costco without a membership is through the vents: Card scanners are coming to all front entrances “over the coming months,” the retailer of everything in bulk announced this week in an escalation of its Netflix-like efforts to end membership-sharing.
The main change: Instead of showing your pass to a Costco employee (the ones TikTokers have made a trend of foiling), you’ll present your physical or digital membership card to a scanner. But robots aren’t taking jobs—there will still be someone at the door guiding the process.
Here’s why your days of borrowing mom’s card to grab a rotisserie chicken are numbered:

  • The grocery warehouse makes most of its money from membership fees (they accounted for $4.6 billion in revenue last fiscal year).
  • It started cracking down on card-sharing over a year ago after noticing more shoppers using memberships that didn’t belong to them, especially at self-checkout. Since then, Costco has tightened up its entrances and started requiring customers to show photo ID if their membership card doesn’t include a picture.

Memberships are also getting a price hike for the first time since 2017. On Sept. 1, the basic Gold Star tier will go from $60 to $65, and the Executive Membership will increase from $120 to $130.—ML
https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


8. Retail Gas Prices Coming Down

From Abnormal Returns Blog

www.abnormalreturns.com


9. Long-Term S&P Chart Still Above 50 Week Moving Average


10. Views on America’s global role diverge widely by age and party

ByHannah Hartig

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/02/views-on-americas-global-role-diverge-widely-by-age-and-party

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 08 2024

1. ABNB -35% from Highs

 


2. SMCI Hit $1229 on March 7th 2024…

-60% from highs but stock was at $300 to start year.


3. Ethereum ETF -25% Since Launch

 


4. 94% of Stock Market Years Have a 5% Drawdown

Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/thoughts-selloff


5. Consumer Debt Issues at Lows

Wolf Street Blog

Household Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q2


6. Add Latin America to the Demographic Slowdown


7. More than 80% of S&P Outsources to India. Will AI Change that?


    8. Olympic Streaming

    https://www.profgalloway.com/


    9. What are the Most Dangerous Jobs in the United States? From Zerohedge

    Some of the most dangerous jobs in the U.S. involve significant physical labor and working in hazardous environments, like loggers, roofers, and fishing and hunting workers.

    Many of these jobs also are usually done in isolated areas, like logging and fishing, where access to emergency medical attention is limited.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/these-are-most-dangerous-jobs-us The figures come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and are updated as of December 2023.


    10. The 5 Stages of the Creative Process -James Clear Blog

    In 1940, an advertising executive named James Webb Young published a short guide titled, A Technique for Producing Ideas. In this guide, he made a simple, but profound statement about generating creative ideas.

    According to Young, innovative ideas happen when you develop new combinations of old elements. In other words, creative thinking is not about generating something new from a blank slate, but rather about taking what is already present and combining those bits and pieces in a way that has not been done previously.

    Most important, the ability to generate new combinations hinges upon your ability to see the relationships between concepts. If you can form a new link between two old ideas, you have done something creative.
    Young believed this process of creative connection always occurred in five steps.

    1. Gather new material. At first, you learn. During this stage you focus on 1) learning specific material directly related to your task and 2) learning general material by becoming fascinated with a wide range of concepts.
    2. Thoroughly work over the materials in your mind. During this stage, you examine what you have learned by looking at the facts from different angles and experimenting with fitting various ideas together.
    3. Step away from the problem. Next, you put the problem completely out of your mind and go do something else that excites you and energizes you.
    4. Let your idea return to you. At some point, but only after you have stopped thinking about it, your idea will come back to you with a flash of insight and renewed energy.
    5. Shape and develop your idea based on feedback. For any idea to succeed, you must release it out into the world, submit it to criticism, and adapt it as needed.

    For a More Creative Brain Follow These 5 Steps

    TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 07 2024

    1. VIX Volatility Index Third Largest Rise in History

    VIX had its largest increase in history (to 65.73 from 23.39 on Friday) and reached its 3rd highest (crisis) reading in history. Only the Lehman and Covid Panics had higher (crisis) VIX readings. Several brokerage firms’ systems crashed. From King Report http://thekingreport.com/

     


    2. VIX History

    Dave Lutz Jones Trading
    Since 2000, the VIX has closed above 28.5 just 12% of the time.  But when the VIX has been that high, the S&P 500 has produced an annualized return of greater than 40% (vs an annualized return of less than 1% when the VIX has been below 28.5) – Bloggers note.


    3. 40% of World Population is on META Products Daily

    META sideways pattern…+42% 2024


    4. The AGG Bond Index +7.7% One Year vs. T-Bill 5.4%

    The Aggregate Bond ETF ($AGG) is now up 7.7% in the past year, outperforming Treasury Bills ($BIL +5.4%).

    Bonds non-correlated again…Returns since July 16th highs in stock market.


    5. S&P Best Performing Stocks Since 7/16 High in Market

    What is impressive is that in looking only at the S&P 500’s 20 best performing stocks since the 7/16 high, the two sectors with the largest representation are Health Care and Industrials. However, looking more closely, a number of those Industrial stocks are also in the Aerospace & Defense industry with stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and RTX (RTX) all posting double digit gains.

    https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/defense-outperforms


    6. Credit Spreads Widen

    Credit: Spreads have widened sharply.

    Source: The Daily Shot


    7. Used Car Prices Falling Month Over Month for Past Year

    Barrons

      https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-survey-reveals-a-used-car-sweet-spot-a-willing-buyer-and-a-decent-stock-30bd53b5?mod=past_editions


      8. Best and Worst Cities for College Graduates -ADP

      The 10 best cities for new graduates, according to ADP:

       

      https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities/4798950-these-are-the-best-us-cities-for-recent-college-grads/


      9. Ranking the Most Expensive Neighborhoods in NYC

      NYT By Michael Kolomatsky

       

      https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/realestate/new-york-citys-most-expensive-neighborhoods.html


      10. What Do Pommel Horse Guy and Jeff Bezos Have in Common? The Same Secret to Success

      By Jessica Stillman, Contributor, Inc.com @EntryLevelRebel
       
      Watching the Paris Olympics has been a blast — we’ve had it on basically all day, every day at my house. But following Paris Olympics memes has been almost as much fun. 
      There was the ultra-casual Turkish shooter (versus the badass Korean with action star vibes), the Italian gymnast sponsored by parmesan cheese, and just about everything Snoop Dogg does and says. 
      But obviously, the number one meme of the Games so far has been Stephen Nedoroscik, a.k.a. Pommel Horse Guy.
      Unless you live under a rock, you don’t need me to tell you the story of the understated pommel horse specialist whose last-minute heroics helped the U.S. men’s gymnastics team take home bronze in the all-around event (and also earned him an individual bronze). I have nothing to add to the internet’s hilarious response to Nedoroscik’s Clark Kent-like performance, except to point out that it has a surprising lot in common with the career of Jeff Bezos. 

      Pommel Horse Guy and the power of specialization
      You’re probably thinking I have lost my mind. One guy is a mild-mannered electrical engineer who happens to be a world-class gymnast. The other is among the world’s richest men. They’re both kind of buff and nerdy, but beyond that, what’s the similarity?  
      In a sentence, both are spectacular examples of the power of clear-eyed self-assessment followed by strategic specialization. 
      This occurred to me when I was reading through reactions to the Olympics on social media (don’t judge me–I’m far from the only one wasting time this way) and came across a LinkedIn post celebrating Nedoroscik’s triumph from executive coach Stephen Courson. 
      Like everyone else, Courson was impressed by Nedoroscik’s humility and self-possession. But he also highlighted Nedoroscik’s unique career trajectory in gymnastics. 
      “His story is incredible and probably applies to more people on here than a Biles or Dressel story,” Courson insists. “Stephen didn’t progress in gymnastics like he wanted to, so he niched down into the one event he excelled at: the pommel horse. He started winning all sorts of competitions as an event specialist, and literally was put on the team because he scores so big on his ONE THING.” 
      “How many of us need to specialize a bit more to get to the next level of our journey?” he asks. 

      The secret ingredient to success? Brutal self-assessment
      I’m not sure the answer to that question. Generalists have their strengths too. As star psychologist Adam Grant has noted, “We don’t need to debate whether it’s better to be a generalist or a specialist. The world needs both.” 
      But what Courson’s post did underline for me is the importance of being brutally honest with yourself about where your talents lie and making smart choices about how to direct your efforts for maximum payoff based on those observations. 
      That’s something Jeff Bezos famously did early in his life. The Amazon founder has spoken about how when he arrived at Princeton as a young man, he dreamed of being a physicist. “Halfway through, I figured out I wasn’t smart enough to be a physicist,” he admitted. A cold-eyed appraisal of his abilities led him to switch to business. We all know how that turned out. 
      There’s even a mathematical way to express the value of the kind of insight that led to Bezos’s early career switch. Physicist Albert-László Barabási, a Northeastern University-based expert on network theory, examined the careers of scientists and came up with this formula for success: S = Qr.

      Put that back into plain English, and what does it mean? Your level of success in life (or S) is the product of the value of what you choose to work on (that’s r) and what Barabási termed your Q-factor, basically your innate level of skill at that activity. Or, in other words, it’s only when the right person is working in the right area for them that amazing things happen. 
      It couldn’t have been pleasant for Nedoroscik to face the fact that he just didn’t have the chops to be an all-around gymnastics champion, or for Bezos to concede his mind wasn’t built for quantum mechanics. But by redirecting their efforts to the kind of endeavors they did have real talent for, these realizations made both their later accomplishments possible. 
      This column isn’t an argument for any particular path. Some people are meant to be specialists, others generalists; some excel at pommel horse, others at parallel bars. Some will solve the mysteries of particle physics, others will found trillion-dollar companies. 
      There are as many ways to be successful as there are people on the planet. But what holds true for all of us is we’re more likely to reach our dreams if, like both Bezos and Pommel Horse Guy, we’re clear eyed about what we’re really good at and really enjoy, even if it seems initially less glamorous or flattering.

      Dedicating yourself to what you’re suited to with humility and dedication might not guarantee you billions or an Olympic gold medal, but it is your best shot at true success.

      What Do Pommel Horse Guy and Jeff Bezos Have in Common? The Same Secret to Success | Inc.com

      TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 06 2024

      1. QQQ Closes Below 200Day Moving Average

       


      2. FANG+ ETF -21% from Highs…Still Above 200-Day


      3. Fear and Greed Index Hits Extreme Fear Levels

      https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


      4. VIX Volatility Index +135% in 5 Days..What Happens Next?

      Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


      5. Japan Lost All of 2024 Gains in 3 Days


      6. Nikkei Japan Stock Market -25% from High….Approaching 200day

       


      7. TLT 20-Year Treasury +5% in 5 Days


        8. Who is Hoarding NVDA Chips? META


        9. 60% of Today’s Workers are Employed in Occupations that Didn’t Exist in 1940

        Torsten Slok, Ph.D.  Apollo–Global Management  Research by David Autor from MIT shows that 60% of today’s workers are employed in occupations that didn’t exist in 1940, see chart below.

        This is important when discussing what impact AI may have on the labor market.


        10. Leave the Crown in the Garage -Farnam Street

        Reading-Indra Nooyi on leaving your crown in the garage:

        “I drove home. It was about 10 p.m., and the wintery roads were peaceful and dark. In those fifteen minutes behind the wheel, I let myself enjoy my accomplishment. I had worked so hard, learned so much, and earned my place. I entered our house through the kitchen door and dropped my keys and bag on the counter. I was bursting with excitement—so eager to tell everyone. Then my mother appeared. “I have the most incredible news!” I exclaimed. “The news can wait,” she said. “I need you to go out and get milk.” “Why didn’t you ask Raj to go get the milk?” I asked. “It looks like he came home a while ago.” “He looked tired, so I didn’t want to disturb him,” she said. I picked up my keys, went back to the car, drove to the Stop & Shop a mile away, and bought a gallon of whole milk. When I walked into the kitchen again, I was hopping mad. I slammed the plastic bottle on the counter. “I’ve just become president of PepsiCo, and you couldn’t just stop and listen to my news,” I said, loudly. “You just wanted me to go get the milk!” “Listen to me,” my mother replied. “You may be the president or whatever of PepsiCo, but when you come home, you are a wife and a mother and a daughter. Nobody can take your place. “So you leave that crown in the garage.”

        Still, my mother’s comment that night has stuck with me—just vague enough to interpret in myriad ways. First, I think she said something deeply important about how we combine work and family. She was right, of course, that no matter who we are or what we do, nobody can take our place in our families. I was enjoying big success, but the stability of our home meant I would be equally valued and important whether or not I had been named president of PepsiCo, she indicated

        The “crown in the garage” comment also speaks to the broader relationship between power and humility. This is an incredible lesson for those who rise in their careers and end up in roles that give them real authority in the workplace and in society.”

        — Source: My Life in Full: Work, Family, and Our Future (Members can access my highlights here).   https://fs.blog/

        Important hills usually get much steeper at the top.

        99% of the training in competitive athletics is devoted to the last 1% of performance. A tenth of a second.

        The same is true for squeezing the last bit of performance out of a car, a grape or a semiconductor. And healthcare, luxury goods and science as well.

        As soon as we declare it important and invite the world to compete, the problems become more difficult.

        Our experience tells us that more input leads to more output, but in asymptotic conditions, where competition is seeking to go to the very end of the curve, this rule is often suspended. The entire point of the competition is how extreme the last few steps are.

        The options are pretty clear:

        1. focus on activities where you’re in the sweet spot of the curve, where more preparation, focus and effort lead to huge benefits. This means walking away from competitions against people who are committed to being unreasonable.
        2. embrace the unreasonable and accept that your competitors will as well. While the unreasonable is thrilling, it’s difficult to build a sustainable career around it.

        https://seths.blog

        TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 05 2024

        1. No Idea What Happens Going Forward but this is 29th 5% Correction Since 2009 Low

        S&P 500 pullback. “The S&P 500 is down 5.6% from its peak on July 16, the 2nd pullback of the year. This is the 29th correction >5% off of a high since the March 2009 low. They all seemed like the end of the world at the time.”

        @charliebilello

         


        2. Earnings Season Volatility 

        Earnings season volatility. “If it’s felt like a volatile earnings season, that’s because it is. In fact, this has been the most volatile earnings season since the financial crisis.”

        Brian Garrett – Goldman Sachs via Sherwood


        3. July Leadership Rotation -Ned Davis

        www.ndr.com


        4. We’ve Talked About $6 Trillion in Money Markets…B of A Saying $18 Trillion in Cash

        Spilled Coffee Blog
        If the consumer can handle any type of slowdown, this is the time. Take a look at the amount of cash US households have now compared to pre-COVID. $18 trillion vs. $13 trillion. That’s over 40% more cash now than in 2019.

        Source: Seth Golden

         


        5. Amazon -19% from Highs


        6. Intel Trades Back to 1999 Levels….18K Layoffs


        7. Earnings Going Up for Utilities

        Capital Group

        https://www.capitalgroup.com/


          8. Utility Index Chart …Summer Ramp Up


          9. Surging Odds of 50 Bps Cut by Fed in September


          10. The last little bit -Seth’s Blog

          Important hills usually get much steeper at the top.

          99% of the training in competitive athletics is devoted to the last 1% of performance. A tenth of a second.

          The same is true for squeezing the last bit of performance out of a car, a grape or a semiconductor. And healthcare, luxury goods and science as well.

          As soon as we declare it important and invite the world to compete, the problems become more difficult.

          Our experience tells us that more input leads to more output, but in asymptotic conditions, where competition is seeking to go to the very end of the curve, this rule is often suspended. The entire point of the competition is how extreme the last few steps are.

          The options are pretty clear:

          1. focus on activities where you’re in the sweet spot of the curve, where more preparation, focus and effort lead to huge benefits. This means walking away from competitions against people who are committed to being unreasonable.
          2. embrace the unreasonable and accept that your competitors will as well.

          While the unreasonable is thrilling, it’s difficult to build a sustainable career around it.

          https://seths.blog

          TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 01 2024

          1. AMD -40% from Highs Before Last Night’s Earnings

          +9% after earnings

           


          2. NVIDIA -25% Off Highs


          3. Crowdstrike -43% from Highs

          From Callum Thomas @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)


          4. The Cap Spending Boom No Slowdown

          https://www.geekwire.com


          5. Rotation Watch Continues

          Equities: The rotation from mega-cap stocks to smaller-capitalization shares continues.

           


          6. Tech Jobs No Longer Concentrated In Cali

          Bloomberg -Justin Fox

          https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-26/tech-jobs-keep-moving-out-of-california-don-t-panic-yet?sref=GGda9y2L

           


          7. More Good New for Inflation

          From Dave Lutz Jones Trading
          Journos note that Commodity prices are set for their worst month since the middle of last year


            8. Revenue Exposure to Foreign Countries


            9. Who was Ismail Haniyeh and why is his assassination a blow to Hamas?

            Reuters By Samia Nakhoul and Stephen Farrell

            https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/obituary-tough-talking-haniyeh-was-seen-more-moderate-face-hamas-2024-07-31/


            10. 12 Career Advice Bullets

             

            TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 31 2024

            1-2. AI vs. the Web

            I wrote about AI boom not being a 1999 moment in my quarterly letter, Bespoke comments below.

            Bespoke Investment Group In our premium research over the last few months, we’ve done a lot of analysis comparing the launch of ChatGPT and the AI Boom that has ensued with other major technological advances over the last few decades.  One of the most correlated periods to now in terms of the Nasdaq 100’s performance was the launch of the modern web browser (Netscape) back in late 1994. Just as ChatGPT brought AI to the masses, the Netscape browser made the internet easily accessible.As shown in the chart below that was included in our latest Bespoke Report newsletter, if we tie the release of ChatGPT in November 2022 to the release of the Netscape web browser in December 1994, the Nasdaq 100 is up about the same amount, and we would currently be around August 1996 on a time scale.
            What’s interesting about August 1996 is that we’d be about four months away from Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s famous “Irrational Exuberance” comments that were meant to highlight some of the frothiness that he was seeing in markets at the time.

            Those comments by Alan Greenspan turned out to be correct (eventually), but if we expand the chart above out ten years, they were about three years early!  As shown below, the Nasdaq would go on to experience a massive bubble for years after Greenspan’s first mention of “irrational exuberance” in late 1996.There are plenty of investors saying the same thing and worse about Tech/AI stocks right now, but keep in mind that we’ve yet to see a pick-up on the M&A and IPO fronts that usually accompany bubbles.  Some of that can be tied back to the fact that companies that may have gone public 25 years ago are often getting acquired before they go public, but overall, the AI Boom, while certainly hot, still seems far more subdued than what we saw during peak Internet boom back in the late 1990s.

            Of course, every boom/bust cycle is different, and the chart below is not to suggest that the Nasdaq will continue following the path it took back in the 1990s. We just thought it was helpful to see the two periods side by side when comparing the launch of ChatGPT to the launch of the Netscape web browser.As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results!We have a lot more interesting analysis like this in our newest Bespoke Report. If you’d like to read it, simply start a trial to one of our three membership levels.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/ai-vs-the-web


            3. Regional Bank ETF KRE

            KRE-42% off lows….back to 2022 levels.


            4. US vs. Euro Stocks

            From Callum Thomas @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)


            5. Another Look at the Diverging Paths of India and China

            The business cycles in China and India are decoupling after having grown in sync for decades, see chart below.

            Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management


            6. Truflation Hits 1.6%…Good Sign for Fed

            @Charlie Bilello


            7. Copper Sell-Off Helping Lower Inflation

            Copper Sell-Off Helping Lower Inflation


            8. Europe Mega Cap 50 Failed to Make New Highs


              9. Annual Hours Worked by Country


              10. Americans Opinion on Government Departments

               

              www.chartr.com

               

              TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 30 2024

              1. Tom Lee Fundstrat on Small Caps

              Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee and his team saw an important quantitative signal last week that historically has been followed by strong win ratios for small-caps: The Russell 2000 has been volatile, trading at +/- 1% in 11 out of the last 12 trading sessions. This has happened only 10 times in non-bear markets since 1979 – in 1987, 1998, 2009 (4x), 2011, 2020 (2x). “These were all clear ‘risk-on’ years and more importantly, ‘early cycle’ years,” Lee pointed out. In those historic precedents we found high win ratios for small-caps one-month forward, as well as three, six, and 12 months afterwards. In fact, the historical win ratio was 100% in the three-, six-, and 12-month forward-looking periods. We see this in our Chart of the Week

              Home


              2. Over the Last 12 Trading Days…13% Spread Between Small Caps and S&P

              @Charlie Bilello
              US Small Caps are up 10% over the last 12 trading days while US Large Caps are down 3%. The 13% spread is the largest 12-day Small Cap outperformance ever.


              3. What Will It Take for Equal Weight S&P to Outperform Cap Weight?

              Barrons Ben Levisohn 
              Bank of America’s Ohsung Kwon looked at when the equal-weight S&P 500—another proxy for the rotation trade—outperformed the market-cap-weighted version of the index. He found that it did so 90% of the time when the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell a full point from its 12-month high and when the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers index rose over four points from its lows. For those two things to happen now, the 10-year yield would have to drop to 3.99% from a recent 4.21%, and the PMI would have to hit 50.5, from June’s 48.5. That seems like a big ask.

              https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-stock-market-rotation-has-occurred-what-comes-next-6137aa72?mod=past_editions


              4. Corporate Insider Selling

              Corporate insiders are dumping stock at the fastest rate in more than a decade
              Marketwatch By Mark Hulbert 

              Corporate insiders have taken a sharply pessimistic turn — selling their companies’ shares at the fastest rate in at least a decade.  That’s according to InsiderSentiment.com, a website maintained by Nejat and Jon Seyhun. The former is a finance professor at the University of Michigan and one of academia’s leading experts on interpreting the behavior of insiders.  In calculating their insider-sentiment indicators, the Seyhuns focus only on two of the three categories that the law defines as insiders (corporate officers and directors) and ignore the third (a company’s largest shareholders). That’s because Professor Seyhun has found from his research that these large shareholders on balance have no privileged insight into their companies’ prospects. Because their transactions are typically several orders of magnitude larger than those of officers and directors, including them skews the much more valuable signals coming from officers and directors.

              The insider indicator that the Seyhuns calculate is the percentage of all companies with any officer or director transactions for which there has been net buying. The past decade’s average is 26%, and up until July this ratio had been slightly to moderately below this average. In the first three weeks of July, however, the insider buy ratio turned “deeply negative” — to 13.6%, its lowest in at least a decade, as you can see from the accompanying chart.

               

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corporate-insiders-are-dumping-stock-at-the-fastest-rate-in-more-than-a-decade-4cc5ed3a


              5. Ethereum New ETF Lags Bitcoin

              MarketEar Blog

              https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


              6. Chinese Tech ETF -16% from 2024 Highs

              KWEB closes back below 200-day


              7. Warren Buffett Reduced Most of Top Holdings

              https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-is-in-a-selling-mood-whats-next-16694668?mod=past_editions


              8. Home Inventories Inching Higher But Still Below Average -Bloomberg


                9. Africa Divided in Half by Religion

                https://www.zerohedge.com/


                10. The Growing Evidence That Americans Are Less Divided Than You May Think

                Time BY KARL VICK

                Read Full Article
                https://time.com/6990721/us-politics-polarization-myth/

                 

                TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 25 2024

                1. FANG+ ETF Closes Below 50Day Moving Average….-11% from Highs


                2. NVIDIA Closes Below 50-Day…-18% from Highs


                3. AI Stock …SMCI -40% from Highs…


                4. Tesla -20% from July Run Up

                50day never made it thru 200day to upside on chart.


                5. EV Inventory 125 Days


                6. Chipotle Closes Below 200-Day

                Not sure if CMG, UPS, MCD telling us consumers slowing down spending.


                7. Shares Of Major French-Fry Supplier Crash As Restaurant Traffic Slowdown Worsens

                ZEROHEDGE BY TYLER DURDEN

                One of the world’s largest producers and processors of frozen french fries, waffle fries, and other frozen potato products reported fourth-quarter profit and sales that missed estimates. The company also issued a below-consensus full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook due to sliding global restaurant traffic. This is an ominous sign, as elevated inflation and high interest rates are squeezing consumers. 
                Lamb Weston reported adjusted earnings per share of 78 cents for the fourth quarter ending May 26, which was well below analysts’ expectations tracked by Bloomberg of $1.25. Revenue also missed, coming in at $1.61, versus the average estimated $1.7 billion. 
                Here’s a snapshot of fourth-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

                • Adjusted EPS 78c, estimate $1.25 (Bloomberg Consensus)
                • Adjusted Ebitda $283.4 million, estimate $357.4 million
                • North America adjusted Ebitda $276.5 million
                • Net sales $1.61 billion, estimate $1.7 billion
                • North America net sales $1.11 billion, estimate $1.17 billion
                • International net sales $498.7 million, estimate $530.7 million
                • North America volume -7%
                • International volume -9%
                • Price/mix +3%, estimate +5.41%
                • North America price/mix +3%
                • International price/mix +2%

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shares-major-french-fry-supplier-crash-amid-restaurant-traffic-slowdown-worsens


                8. Small Cap 600 Forward P/E Gap vs. S&P Got Close to Internet Bubble Levels

                Liz Ann Sonders Schwab


                  9. Blackstone Mortgage REIT Cuts Dividend by 24%

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-24/carson-block-s-call-for-blackstone-reit-stress-starts-to-show-up?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


                  10. The two bicycle errors -Seth Godin Blog

                  Momentum activities like public speaking, board sports and leadership all share an attribute with riding a bicycle: It gets easier when you get good at it.

                  The first error we often make is believing that someone (even us) will never be good at riding a bike, because riding a bike is so difficult. When we’re not good at it, it’s obvious to everyone.

                  The second error is coming to the conclusion that people who are good at it are talented, born with the ability to do it. They’re not, they have simply earned a skill that translates into momentum.

                  There’s a difference between, “This person is a terrible public speaker,” and “this person will never be good at public speaking.”

                  And there’s a difference between, “They are a great leader,” and “they were born to lead.”

                  The thing about momentum activities is that we notice them only twice: when people are terrible at them, and when they’re good at it. That includes the person you see in the mirror. 

                  https://seths.blog

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 24 2024

                  1. Effective Corporate Tax Rates


                  2. Two-Year Treasury Yield

                  Three Lower Highs in a Row for 2 year treasury yields…trend is down pulled back to early Feb 2024 levels.


                  3. Q2 2024 First Year Over Year Increase in IPOs Since 2021

                  From Zachary Goldberg Jefferies –Wall Street Horizon noted, the second quarter of 2024 marked the first year-on-year increase in new global #IPOs since Q3 2021 and the single most active quarter since Q3 2022.


                  4. UPS Stock Breaks Below 2023 Lows


                  5. AT&T Chart…Can T Break Out of 10-Year Range?


                  6. De-Globalization Will Not Be Easy

                  Bernstein Advisors Trade Deficit is at record levels.


                  7. Best and Worst Cities for Renters

                  NY Times

                  By Matt Yan https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/realestate/whats-the-best-city-for-renters.html


                  8. The US housing-market logjam keeps getting worse

                  Business Insider 

                  • Existing home sales fell in June to nearly to their slowest pace since 2010.
                  • The decline comes as home prices notched a record high in the same month.
                  • Buyers are likely waiting for interest-rate cuts that would loosen financial conditions.

                  The pace of existing home sales fell close to a record low in June as record-high prices and persistently high mortgage rates turned buyers away.
                  Data from the National Association of Realtors shows that sales slumped 5.4% from May to June, hitting an annualized rate of 3.89 million. That marks the one of the slowest paces since 2010.
                  Adding to the reluctance of buyers was a second straight monthly record for home prices. The median existing-home price surging 4.1% year-to-year to $426,900.
                  The two dynamics are combining to worsen a long-standing logjam in the housing market. While the issue was once a lack of inventory, home sales have stayed stagnant even as more units have come available. It’s likely buyers are waiting for interest rates to start declining.

                  https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-outlook-logjam-existing-home-sales-record-prices-mortgages-2024-7


                  9. American Mortgage Holders Loan to Value at Super Strong Levels


                  10. Most Followed Accounts On Instagram…Ronaldo and Messi

                  Aside from Instagram’s own account, Cristiano Ronaldo has the most followers on Instagram with over 600 million.  Another soccer star Leo Messi currently ranks third for most Instagram followers, just over 100 million behind rival Ronaldo.  With the exception of YouTube’s MrBeast and T-Series (over 260 million subscribers), each of Instagram’s top 20 accounts has more followers than all other social media accounts.
                  17 of the top 20 Instagram accounts are focused on a single person.

                  Rank   Account Current Followers Jan 2024 Followers July 2022 Followers
                  1 Instagram 673.7 million 665.8 million 526 million
                  2 Cristiano Ronaldo 632.7 million 616.5 million 462.4 million
                  3 Leo Messi 503.7 million 496.5 million 344.4 million
                  4 Selena Gomez 426.7 million 429.7 million 332.8 million
                  5 Kylie 399.1 million 399.4 million 355.1 million
                  6 Dwayne Johnson 396.9 million 395.4 million 325.8 million
                  7 Ariana Grande 378.6 million 380.9 million 320.2 million
                  8 Kim Kardashian 362.1 million 364.2 million 322.8 million
                  9 Beyoncé 318.1 million 319.9 million 265.6 million
                  10 Khloé Kardashian 308.5 million 311.4 million 250.8 million
                  11 Nike 305.9 million 306.7 million 227.2 million
                  12 Justin Bieber 293.4 million 292.9 million 246 million
                  13 Kendall 293 million 294.8 million 244.6 million
                  14 Taylor Swift 283.8 million 279.4 million 217.2 million
                  15 National Geographic 282.9 million 283.8 million 229.9 million
                  16 Virat Kohli 269.2 million 265.7 million 204.4 million
                  17 Jennifer Lopez 252.3 million 253.4 million 216.8 million
                  18 Barbie (Nicki Minaj) 229.1 million 229 million 196.8 million
                  19 Kourtney Kardashian Barker 223.1 million 224.9 million 187.4 million
                  20 NJ ?? (Neymar) 222.3 million 218.3 million 176 million

                  Source: Social Blade

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 23 2024

                  1. Trading on Polymarket Hits $112m…Bets on Politics, Sports, Pop Culture

                  WSJ Alexander Osipovich 
                  Welcome to the world of Polymarket, a four-year-old startup that offers bets on politics, sports, pop culture and pretty much anything else. Trading volumes on Polymarket hit a record $112 million in June and have already exceeded that level so far this month. Activity rose sharply after the June 27 presidential debate, in which President Biden’s disastrous performance unleashed speculation that he would drop out of the race.

                  https://www.wsj.com/finance/meet-the-traders-making-money-off-the-trump-shooting-and-bidens-stumbles-1332ec3e

                  Polymarket https://polymarket.com/


                  2. Sector Earnings Per Share Growth Projections …Industrials Ranked #1 ….IT #4

                  Marketwatch By Philip van Doorn

                  Are you surprised? The industrial sector ranks highest for expected two-year revenue and earnings-per-share CAGR through 2026. The IT sector ranks fourth for expected sales growth and is in a second-place tie with the healthcare sector for expected EPS growth.
                  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-s-p-500-sector-is-expected-to-grow-profits-most-rapidly-through-2026-and-its-not-tech-here-are-14-related-stocks-efa398dc?&mod=home-page


                  3. Small Cap Tech a Couple Ticks from New Highs

                  Mega-Cap Tech drove 2023-2024 rally…small cap tech still below 2021 highs.


                  4. Manhattan Real Estate Manager SL Green +205% from Lows

                  Yahoo Finance
                  Description-SL Green Realty Corp., Manhattan’s largest office landlord, is a fully integrated real estate investment trust, or REIT, that is focused primarily on acquiring, managing and maximizing value of Manhattan commercial properties. As of September 30, 2023, SL Green held interests in 59 buildings totaling 32.5 million square feet. This included ownership interests in 28.8 million square feet of Manhattan buildings and 2.8 million square feet securing debt and preferred equity investments.

                  50- week about to go thru 200week to upside.


                  5. CRWD -30% Correction but Still in Green for 2024

                  CRWD close to next support


                  6. Mag 7 Lost $1.32 Trillion from Highs…A Blip on Long-Term Chart

                  Wolf Street Blog

                  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/20/small-stocks-keeled-over-after-brief-super-hyped-rotation-spike-magnificent-7-lost-1-3-trillion-in-seven-days/


                  7. Millennials Entering Prime Time Spending Years

                  Business Insider Tom Lee Fundstrat
                  Lee put the chart above together several years ago, but his thesis remains the same. The average age of millennials is now around 31 years old, and the global cohort of 2.5 billion people is starting to enter its prime age years of 30-50 years old.
                  “This would be the third time that stocks entered a cycle where annual returns compound at high teens. You had the roaring 20’s, and then you had the 50’s through the late 60’s, and this is a third cycle,” Lee told CNBC last month.  “They all coincided with a surge in the number of people aged 30-50, so in other words the number of prime age adults, and this time it’s powered by millennials and Gen Z.”

                  https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-4-charts-show-fundstrat-triple-sp500-prediction-2024-7?_gl=1*vyalh2*_ga*MTcwNTA0MjU4My4xNjYxMzU3MTY0*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyMTY4NDE0MS4xMjUuMS4xNzIxNjg0MTg5LjEyLjAuMA..


                  8. Tesla Big Rally Now Needs to Break Thru Levels Visited Multiple Times in Last 12 Months


                  9. Union Membership-Visual Capitalist

                  https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-american-jobs-highest-union-membership-2023


                  10. Why you are probably sitting down for too long -BBC

                  Annabel Bourne
                  Sitting down for prolonged periods can have a profound effect on our health
                  In the office, on transport, at home…Sitting down is ingrained in most peoples’ days. But, due in part to vascular dysfunction, staying sedentary for too long can increase the risk of serious health conditions like cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes.
                  In 1953, epidemiologist Jeremy Morris found that London bus drivers were more than twice as likely as bus conductors to develop coronary heart disease.
                  Demographically (in age, sex and income range) the two groups of workers were the same, so why was there such a significant difference? 
                  Morris’ answer: bus conductors were required to be on their feet and regularly climb the steps of London’s iconic double-decker buses as they sold tickets to passengers, whereas the drivers remained seated for long stretches of time. His landmark study laid the groundwork for research on the links between physical activity and coronary health. 
                  Whilst London bus conductors may now be a thing of the past, Morris’ results are more relevant than ever. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been a huge shift towards working from home, which is likely to increase our collective sitting time.
                   
                  Without the trips to the water cooler and trot from meeting room to meeting room, it’s easy to spend hours sat behind a desk without getting up. (Office culture, however, had already changed our working lives so much by the 1980s that some researchers joked that our species had become Homo sedens – the “seated man” – rather than Homo sapiens.)
                  Prolonged sitting is a form of sedentary behaviour, characterised by a highly reduced energy expenditure in a seated or reclined position. Typical sedentary behaviours including television-watching, gaming, driving and desk-bound work. Sedentary behaviours are associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and premature mortality, and the time we spend sitting down in particular has been identified as an independent risk factor in a range of health conditions. In 2020, the World Health Organization suggested measures to reduce sedentary behaviour.
                  Since 2010, researchers have been keen to point out that sedentary behaviour is distinct from a lack of physical activity. You can get sufficient exercise per day, and still sit for too long. However, the risks of sedentary behaviour are heightened for those who do not exercise enough.
                   
                  Why does sedentary behaviour increase risk of cardiovascular disease? The primary hypothesis is increased vascular dysfunction, particularly in the legs. The vascular system is responsible for keeping blood and lymph fluid – which forms part of the immune system – moving through the blood vessels.
                  David Dunstan, a physiologist at Deakin University’s Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, in Melbourne, Australia, has extensively researched the effects of prolonged sitting and possible interventions.
                  “What characterises sitting is a reduction in muscular activity,” says Dunstan. “If I’m on a chair, the chair is taking all the responsibility there.”
                  The combined effect of reduced muscular activity, lower metabolic demand and gravitational forces decreases peripheral blood flow to the leg muscles, which can lead to blood pooling in the calves. The biomechanics of sitting, with the legs usually bent, can also reduce blood flow.
                  Researchers suggest that 120-180 minutes of prolonged sitting is the threshold of too long spent seated
                  Reduced muscular activity of the leg muscles reduces their metabolic demand. Metabolic demand is the primary determinant of blood flow, so blood flow in the legs is also reduced. The biomechanics of sitting, with the legs usually bent can cause to blood pool in the calves – one study of 21 young healthy volunteers saw their calves increase in circumference by nearly 1cm (0.4in) over the course of two hours. This can also reduce blood flow.
                   
                  Earlier this year, my colleagues and I looked at some simple ways you can improve your physcial and mental health. We discovered it might not matter that much if you hit 10,000 steps everyday, but there are some types of exercise that can really make a difference.
                  I was also reminded while editing this piece that even fidgeting while sat on a long phone call can have its benefits. Here are some other articles I went back to read again after this one:
                  Normal blood flow provides friction, known as arterial shear stress, against the endothelial cells which line the walls of blood vessels. The endothelium responds to this force and secretes vasodilators, like adenosine, prostacyclin and nitric oxide, which keep the vessels sufficiently dilated and maintain the ability of the vascular system to regulate itself – known as homeostasis.
                   
                  Reduced blood flow, however, reduces shear stress, and the endothelium produces vasoconstrictors like endothelin-1 which cause the blood vessels to narrow. In a vicious cycle, vasoconstriction further reduces blood flow, and blood pressure rises to keep the blood moving. High blood pressure, or hypertension, is one of the predominant risk factors for cardiovascular disease.
                  “That’s [vascular dysfunction] one of the potential mechanisms,” says Dunstan. “But the truth is that we haven’t been able to pinpoint the exact mechanisms, and there’s likely to be multiple. 
                  Whilst the underlying mechanisms are hypothetical, recent studies support the theory. A study with 16 young, healthy men found that sitting for three-hour periods increased blood pooling in the legs, peripheral vascular resistance, diastolic blood pressure and leg circumference. Another study finds that blood pressure increases with time spent sitting uninterrupted. Researchers generally agree that 120-180 minutes of uninterrupted sitting is probably the threshold at which you have probably spent too long in a seated position, but vascular dysfunction generally increases with time spent sitting.
                   
                  Sitting for a prolonged period after a high-fat meal is thought to be particularly harmful.
                  The muscular skeletal system is also likely to be affected. Prolonged sitting contributes to reduced muscle strength, lower bone density and increased total and visceral fat in adipose tissue. Additionally, prolonged sitting is associated with physical discomfort, stress at work and higher depression, and can even lead to pressure ulcers.
                   
                  Dunstan, who specialises in researching type 2 diabetes, also notes that sedentary behaviour increases post-meal, or post-prandial, rises in blood glucose and insulin. Impaired insulin sensitivity and impaired vascular function, both contribute to a higher risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes.
                  People are becoming more sedentary because it’s what society has encouraged. As things get more efficient, we don’t have to move around so much – Benjamin Gardner
                  Given all these well-known potential consequences, why is it that we sit for so long – and can we break the habit?
                  “I think people are becoming more sedentary because it’s what society has encouraged,” says
                   
                  Benjamin Gardner, a social psychologist specialising in habitual behaviour at the University of Surrey, who has been researching why people sit for so long. “It’s not that anyone’s deliberately pushing it. It’s just as things get more efficient, we don’t have to move around so much.”
                  In 2018, Gardner and colleagues found that encouraging standing in meetings presented unique social obstacles.
                  “We encouraged people to try this [standing up] in three different meetings, and we interviewed them after each one to find out how they got on, and the findings were fascinating,” says Gardner. “In a formal meeting, it was felt it was not appropriate to be standing.”
                   
                  Some researchers believe we need more social factors to make it easier for people to break up the time they spend sitting (Credit: Getty Images)
                  Other interventions include height-adjustable workstations, sit/stand chairs, treadmill workstations, and fidgeting the legs which enhances blood flow. (Learn more about why fidgeting is good for you.)
                  Just getting up every-so-often and going for a light walk or climbing some stairs has also been shown to be beneficial.
                  Wearable technology may also help nudge us into action. In a promising new study, wearable devices called accelerometers provided 24-hour data on individual behaviour patterns including sitting, standing, sleeping and exercising.
                   
                  As Dunstan pointed out, this potentially allows for tailored optimal sitting and standing times, with devices then sending automatic reminders whenever we sit for too long. However, the use of technology is not without its drawbacks, as some may become frustrated by or desensitised to its prompts.
                  Above all, Gardner and colleagues encourage moving between sitting and standing positions more frequently. The premise of breaking up sedentary time by just standing up is simple, but has significant health benefits, particularly for low-activity individuals. For wheelchair users or others with mobility constraints, specific, adapted exercises can be beneficial.
                  For many, sedentary behaviour can seem like an unavoidable consequence of modern life and work. But even small changes to your routine – be it stretching more, fidgeting or standing up to make a cup of tea – can help break your sitting habit.
                  —
                  For essential climate news and hopeful developments to your inbox, sign up to the Future Earth newsletter, while The Essential List delivers a handpicked selection of features and insights twice a week.
                  For more science, technology and health stories from the BBC, follow us on Facebook and X.
                   
                  https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240722-why-you-are-probably-sitting-down-for-too-long

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 22 2024

                  1. Tom Lee Fundstrat on Small Caps

                   

                  Home


                  2. Ryan Detrick on Small Caps


                  3. 10 Largest Stocks One Week Percentage Change

                  Source: Bespoke


                  4. Price to Earnings of Mag 7

                  Eric Soda Spilled Coffee Blog

                  Source: Mike Zaccardi
                  https://www.spilledcoffee.co/


                  5. Mag 7 Stock Buybacks

                  The Daily Shot Brief Food for Thought: Magnificent 7 share buybacks:

                  Source: Visual Capitalist
                   https://dailyshotbrief.com/


                  6. Investing Based on Elections is Tough Game

                  Barrons-The catchphrase “Drill baby drill” is in the 2024 Republican party platform. But it’s a relic that rings hollow. While Trump promoted fossil fuels in his first term and was hostile to renewables—pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement on climate—the energy sector declined 30% in total return on his watch, hit by Covid and depressed oil prices. Under Biden, the sector has returned a total 148%, despite Biden’s promotion of a “Green New Deal” and getting the U.S. back in the Paris agreement. Paul R. La Monica

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-election-stock-market-59926820?mod=past_editions


                  7. Market Ear Blog-Capital Expenditure Heavy Spenders Underperform

                  https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


                  8. UBER Lost $31.5B Before Posting First Profit


                  9. Democratic Nominee Process


                  10. Peter Lynch Quotes: 25 More Highly Valuable Insights

                  From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com
                  ”The bearish argument always sounds more intelligent.” (p. 23)
                  “It’s self-defeating to try to invest in good markets and get out of bad ones.” (p. 48)
                  “Obviously you don’t have to be able to predict the stock market to make money in stocks, or else I wouldn’t have made any money.” (p. 84)
                  “If professionals can’t predict economies and professional forecasters can’t predict markets, then what chance does the amateur investor have?” (p. 87)
                  “No wonder why people make money in the real estate market and lose money in the stock market. They spend months choosing their houses, and minutes choosing their stocks. In fact, they spend more time shopping for a good microwave oven than shopping for a good investment.” (p. 80)
                  ”The simpler it is, the better I like it.” (p. 130).
                  “Why take chances on a fickle purchase when there’s so much steady business around?” (p. 142)
                  “When management owns stock, then rewarding the shareholders becomes a first priority, whereas when management simply collects a paycheck, then increasing salaries becomes a first priority.” (p. 143)
                  “Insider selling usually means nothing and it’s silly to react to it. There are many reasons that officers might sell. But there’s only one reason that insiders buy.” (p. 144)
                  “Wait for the earnings. You can get tenbaggers in companies that have already proven themselves. When in doubt, tune in later.” (p. 159)
                  “Value always wins out – or at least in enough cases that it’s worthwhile to believe it.” (p. 161)
                  “Once you’re able to tell the story of a stock to your family, your friends, or the dog, and so that even a child could understand it, then you have a proper grasp of the situation.” (p. 175)
                  “La Quinta was a great story, and not one of those would-be, could-be, might-be, soon-to-be tales. If they aren’t already doing it, then don’t invest in it.” (p. 179)
                  “It’s never too late not to invest in an unproven enterprise.” (p. 182)
                  “All else being equal, a 20-percent grower selling at 20 times earnings is a much better buy than a 10-percent grower selling at 10 times earnings.” (p. 218)
                  “All of this research I’ve been talking about takes a couple of hours, at most, for each stock.” (p. 227)
                  “What’s wrong with high expectations? If you expect to make 30 percent year after year, you’re most likely to get frustrated at stocks for defying you.” (p. 237)
                  “Going into cash would be getting out of the market. My idea is to stay in the market forever, and to rotate stocks depending on the fundamental situation.” (p. 242)
                  “Sell the winners and hold on to the losers is as sensible as pulling out the flowers and watering the weeds.” (p. 243)
                  “Most money I make is in the third or fourth year that I’ve owned something.” (p. 266)
                  “In most cases it’s better to buy the original good company at a high price than it is to jump on the ‘next one’ at a bargain price.” (p. 268)
                  “It takes years, not months, to produce big results.” (p. 285)
                  “Just because the price goes up doesn’t mean you’re right.” (p. 286)
                  “Buying a company with mediocre prospects just because the stock is cheap is a losing technique.” (p. 286)
                  “You don’t have to kiss all the girls. I’ve missed my share of tenbaggers and it hasn’t kept me from beating the market.” (p. 286)

                  https://quartr.com/insights/investment-strategy/chasing-10-baggers-the-timeless-wisdom-of-peter-lynch

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 19 2024

                  1. $190 Trillion in Treasuries Traded 2023..10-Year Treasury Approaching 4%


                  2. Earnings Upgrades Moving to Non-Tech Sectors

                  DC Lite Blog 
                  EPS sentiment. “Earnings-per-share upgrades have fallen sharply for the Nasdaq 100, while upgrades for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are on the rise.”

                  Albert Edwards – Societe Generale via Business Insider


                  3. 12-Month Forward Earnings Estimates for AI is Falling

                  Market Ear Blog


                  4. Equity Inflows Slow in August

                  Marketwatch Barbara Kollmeyer  August, he adds, is typically the “worst month of the year for equity flows. There are no predicted inflows in August as the capital has already been deployed for [the third quarter]. Buyers are out of ammo and I am on the look out for outflows,” Rubner says, providing this chart:


                  5. We Showed Chart Earlier in Week Showing Luxury Brands Earnings Growth Over 20-Years

                  LUXX is an ETF 

                  https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/luxx


                  6. Domino’s Pizza -23.5% from Highs


                  7. Home Solar Provider SunPower Collapses to $1


                  8. Record Number of Americans Have $500k in Stocks and $500k in Home Equity

                  Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner-Apollo Global Management 
                  The University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment shows that a record-high 30% of the population have stocks worth more than $500,000, and 37% own a home worth more than $500,000, see charts below.   It is remarkable that these wealth gains for the household sector have taken place while the Fed was raising interest rates. The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant, in particular when combined with record-high cash flows from fixed income.


                  9. Immigration Update


                  10. The Seven Health Benefits of Cold Showers

                  Story by Emily Craig
                  Ice cold showers are purported to ward off illness, improve mood and help with weight loss© Provided by The Telegraph

                  There are gentler ways to start the day than with an ice-cold shower, yet the potential health benefits – warding off illness, improving mood and helping with weight loss – could just be enough to make you consider braving the chill.
                  Prof Mike Tipton, a physiologist at the University of Portsmouth, has spent four decades studying how temperature affects our health. It’s a promising area of new research and, coupled with anecdotal accounts, might persuade you to turn the dial down to cold.
                  “For the people who say, I feel alive, awake, it sets me up for the day, I’m not going to knock it in any way. But there’s work to be done to figure out the mechanism,” he says. Read on to find out why. 
                   
                  1. Boosts your immune system
                  One of the most rigorous studies into cold showers involved 3,000 volunteers in the Netherlands turning the water to as cold as possible for the final 30, 60 or 90 seconds of their shower. A control group showered as normal.
                  After three months, results showed that those who included a cold water blast in their shower had taken 29 per cent fewer sick days – regardless of how long the water was cold for. 
                  “My particular hypothesis is that the sudden change in skin temperature is driving a lot of the beneficial changes,” says Prof Tipton. “That sudden fall produces the cold shock response – a gasp, hyperventilation and increasing workload in the heart. 
                  “Because it’s part of a fight or flight response, you’re activating the stress hormones, serotonin goes up and beta endorphins increase,” which contributes to boosting the immune system to ward off illness, he says.
                  Longer exposure to cold water is, of course, fatal, accounting for 60 per cent of deaths in cold water, Prof Tipton says.
                  “This is a very double edged sword. A minute in cold water may prime your immune system, five minutes may actually impair it. It’s the dose of cold that’s critical.”

                  2. Enhances mental health
                  Exposure to cold water may drastically improve mental health in patients, even when drugs have failed to do so, research suggests.
                  One study by Prof Tipton and colleagues found that weekly cold-water swimming helped to ease a 24-year-old woman’s depression. She had previously spent seven years battling the condition, during which medication failed to reduce her
                  “She said that she was the happiest she could remember being. A year later, she was drug-free and open water swimming. She’d overcome a big challenge in her mind,” he says. 
                  It’s not clear if a cold shower could have the same effect. “It may be the distraction of the cold water [that eased her depression]. When exposed to cold water, most people say all they can think about is the temperature and it takes their mind off everything else,” he says.
                  However, improvements in her mental health could also be down to the exercise involved in cold water swimming, overcoming the challenge of the cold, or the social inclusion of swimming with others, he noted.
                  “Is it the cold, or is it any one of these other things? We won’t know until there are studies that isolate cold exposure,” Prof Tipton adds.

                  3. Improves skin and hair health
                  Lukewarm water is the ideal for face washing, as it effectively removes dirt, oil and impurities without causing excessive dryness or irritation, explains Dr Anastasia Therianou, a consultant dermatologist on Harley Street and at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust.
                  However, cold water constricts blood vessels in the skin, which can reduce redness and inflammation – so can improve the appearance of skin, she says.
                  When it comes to hair, a cold shower can help lock in moisture. “Cold water closes the hair cuticles, so the hydration is ‘trapped’ inside the hair,” Dr Therianou says. “This is beneficial for people with thin hair that tends to break easily. However, cold water cannot fully remove the excessive oils from the scalp so it’s advisable to wash your hair in warm water and then condition and rinse using cold water – if you can bear it.”

                  4. Supports weight loss
                  A review of more than 100 studies suggested cold water immersion, such as swimming or a cold bath, can activate and expand brown adipose tissue – a “good” fat that burns calories – and also reduce “bad” white fat, and therefore aid weight loss.
                  “The brown fat cells develop from white fat cells and, as their energy source, they like free fatty acids which they get from the white fat cells,” explains James Mercer, a professor emeritus at The Arctic University of Norway who co-authored the review. “By reducing the content of free fatty acids in the white fat cells, theoretically, one loses weight.”
                  However, scientists have not yet investigated whether a cold shower would also trigger this process. “My gut feeling is no, since the development of brown fat in cold water swimmers seems to require a very strong cold stimulus which I do not think you would get from a short cold shower,” says Prof Mercer.
                  “A cold shower doesn’t provide the same stimulus as being immersed in cold water, as only about a third of the body is exposed to the cold,” says Prof Tipton. “As a result, the cold shock response is roughly about a third of the size it would be in an immersion. That doesn’t mean it’s not big enough to have a positive effect – but nobody’s done the study.”

                  5. Relieves muscle soreness and accelerates recovery
                  Athletes frequently turn to ice baths to aid their recovery, the idea being that the cold reduces blood flow, swelling and inflammation of the muscles.
                  Cold showers could have a similar effect, as the cold water is an analgesic (painkiller) and may be enough to decrease swelling, says Prof Tipton. 
                  However, he notes that while there is “some evidence” cold water can help muscle aches, the evidence “is not convincing across the board”. For example, some studies suggest that cold water actually lowers protein generation, which is vital for building and repairing muscle.

                  6. Aids in pain relief and reduces migraines
                  There’s anecdotal evidence of cold baths and cold water swimming easing very severe migraines, Prof Tipton notes. These accounts suggest short-term exposure to the cold may ease pain, he says.
                  Cold receptors are located about 0.18mm below the skin surface and, when skin temperature drops quickly, these fire off an enormous amount of information to the central nervous system and the subsequent gasping changes blood flow in the brain, he explains. 
                  A reduction in pain could be down to a combination of those two things or other factors,” he says.

                  7. Enhances mood and promotes emotional wellbeing
                  There’s anecdotal evidence from cold water swimmers that it dramatically improves their mood and wellbeing, says Prof Tipton. “I work with the Bluetits [an outdoor swimming group in Pembrokeshire] and I am overwhelmed by the accounts of people who say it has changed their life. People are in tears about it.
                  “The vast majority of people who report benefits, say it’s to their mental wellbeing, although the mechanism behind this effect is unclear. The cold water is clearly activating people and waking them up, which will be down to the cold shock response and the release of stress hormones.”
                  Health risks to consider before having a cold shower

                  Before stepping into a cold shower, it’s important to consider if you’re in good enough health to do so, says Prof Tipton.
                  “We’re a tropical animal that wants to be naked in 28C. Taking that animal and showering it with 10 or 12C water is a really stressful thing to do,” he says. 
                  The cold triggers cold water shock, which is a gasp of breath, followed by rapid breathing and high blood pressure. While this can be beneficial for some over a short time, it will become detrimental to everyone with time, so people should stay in a cold shower for no more than one minute.
                  It is especially dangerous for people with cardiovascular disease, aneurysms or heart problems and they therefore shouldn’t try it, Prof Tipton says.
                  Other complications of cold water that could affect anyone include hypothermia and non-freezing cold injury, he warns, is damage to the small nerves and blood vessels of the hands and feets that can last for life. 
                  Recommended
                  Cold water therapy: What is it, types and where to start

                  https://www.msn.com/en-ph/health/other/the-seven-health-benefits-of-cold-showers/ar-BB1qbI0G

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 18 2024

                  1. Small Cap Volume Eclipsed the QQQ for the First Time Since 2017

                  Dave Lutz Jones Trading
                  IWM Volume Yesterday eclipsed QQQ, the first time since 2017 – and Eric B Notes the Record option volume too, and that’s going back to the ’90s


                  2. Market Leading Sub-Sector Semiconductors -9% from Highs

                  First test 50day moving average blue line


                  3. I Have Pointed Out Divergence in Transports vs. QQQ Multiple Times this Year…Bespoke Charts Give Detail

                  Bespoke- Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a look at the massive difference in performance between two leading industries: the Dow Transports and the Semiconductors (page 1). We then dive into the latest earnings and the Beige Book (page 2). Next, we recap today’s residential construction data (pages 3 and 4) before pivoting over to the newest update of petroleum stockpiles (page 5). We close out with a recap of the 20 year bond reopening (page 6).
                  Highest 5-day spread Since 2000

                  https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-closer-leading-industry-divergence-residential-construction-7-17-24


                  4. NVDA 20% of Semiconductor Index

                  Chart update…NVDA did not make the new high so lower high in place for now…trading right on 50-day


                  5. Financials ETF XLF New Highs with Fed Rate Cut Projections

                  XLF has held above 200-day moving average for 2 ½ years testing it 3x  …impressive


                  6. Schwab Stock Chart Update

                  SCHW trades quickly back to Feb lows, failed to exceed this year’s previous high.


                  7. Blackstone Reported Earnings…$1.08 Trillion in Assets

                  Another sub-sector to watch as rates move lower…Alternative investment leader Blackstone made new highs before reporting today.


                  8. Public Corporation Balance Sheets in Good Shape

                  Net interest payments at 20-year lows.


                  9. Movie Box Office vs. Video Games


                  10. Read Books….Read Books Out Loud….Advice from Dad for Richest PE Investor in Korea

                  Interview with Michael Kim -Philadelphia Inquirer by Susan Snyder

                  And you didn’t speak any English when you first came to the United States? How did you learn it?
                  My father just said “read books.” That’s how I learned English. That’s how I became an American by reading American novels.
                  You read the books out loud, right? I was really having trouble with oral language, speaking, and [my father’s] response, of course, was “read out loud.” That’s how I learned to speak English.

                  One of the richest men in Korea just became Haverford College’s new board chair. Here’s what to know about him.
                  Michael B. Kim’s book, “Offerings,” took 20 years to write and will be made into a movie.  By Susan Snyder Philadelphia Inquirer

                  Michael B. Kim, a Haverford College alumnus and incoming board chair, shares details of his time at Haverford and his life as a writer.Courtesy of Haverford College

                  Michael B. Kim, a Haverford College alumnus and private equity firm leader who has the distinction of being one of the richest people in Korea, became chair of the college’s board of managers on July 1.

                  While he made his fortune in finance, he spent his time at Haverford as an English major, and over the last two decades wrote his first novel, Offerings, in which the story of the main character, Dae Joon, an investment banker from Seoul who works on Wall Street, closely mirrors his own. That book is now being made into a movie.

                  In April, Kim, 60, once named “the godfather of Asian private equity,” gave a $25 million gift to Haverford to start a new Institute for Ethical Inquiry & Leadership. He has a current net wealth of $9.7 billion, according to Forbes.

                  Kim came to the United States with his family from South Korea when he was 11 and grew up in New Jersey. He spent his high school years in Cherry Hill and attended Bishop Eustace High School in Pennsauken before enrolling at Haverford in 1981. He also has an MBA from Harvard. He and his wife, Park Kyung-ah, daughter of the late Park Tae-joon, former prime minister of South Korea, have two children.

                  The Inquirer sat down with Kim to talk about what drew him to his latest role, including his love of Haverford, books, and the need for ethics missionaries. His answers have been edited for length and clarity.

                  What were your high school years like?
                  It was good and bad. … I was the only Asian, certainly the only Korean in every class I went to. But there was some ethnic and cultural diversity. … I felt like it was a connected society in South Jersey, and that made it an interesting place to spend the latter part of my formative years. … I wouldn’t have been conscious of this at the time, but I think I was probably the classic nerd. Or I would have been if it weren’t for my Taekwondo [ability] as a black belt.

                  How did you end up choosing Haverford?
                  The liberal arts courses and the Duck Pond [along College Lane] drew me to Haverford. … I just kind of felt at home. I was an English major there because of my love of books.

                  Why did you join the college’s board of managers?
                  Because I’m a Haverfordian. You get called to service, you answer the call.

                  As the new chair, what are your priorities for the college?
                  A renewed focus on our core mission, which is … academic excellence. That is an easy thing to say and even aspire to, a more difficult thing to procure and also maintain. … What that means to me is hiring the best faculty and getting the best students and distinguishing the Haverford academic experience from so many other good liberal arts colleges.

                  So you want to increase Haverford’s prominence?
                  Not prominence. … Not necessarily getting to a higher ranking in (U.S. News & World Report) rankings, but just making sure we really are getting the best students. You can tell from our admissions stats that we’ve fallen behind a little bit, so kind of a return to glory. What that means is we need to really be committed to delivering the best education. That requires resources. …
                  Our endowment, [$643 million], is much smaller than some of our peers’. … So this would be the second priority … [securing more financial resources to carry out the strategic plan].
                  The third goal would be to continue to nurture the special values-based community that I think really is a distinguishing feature of Haverford College. That’s where the Institute for Ethical Inquiry & Leadership comes in.

                  Tell me why ethical leadership is important to you?
                  Leadership without ethics is a body without a soul. And look around, there are a lot of soulless leaders, not just in America but around the world. My hope is that with the renewed focus on ethics … we can enrich ourselves as a society.
                  It’s even more important, given all the turmoil in the world including on our college campuses. …
                  My wish is for Haverford to be known for as the leader in ethics education, much in the way Middlebury is for languages and for the Institute to train and send out ethics missionaries to the world.

                  Was the institute your idea?
                  Yes. Wendy Raymond, the president, it kind of germinated with her and she gave a lot of thought on how we flush out an institute … what we should aspire to do and the curriculum, in particular. It was her idea to make it across academic disciplines. My idea was to make it a little more expansive, to have a global reach.

                  At many college campuses, including Haverford, pro-Palestinian encampments were erected last spring, which caused some tension. How should colleges handle these?
                  I’m a free-speech advocate. I think the more speech, the better. … My father used to say protests are the flowers of democracy. That has meaning if you consider our own country, Korea. … Until the late ‘80s. we were ruled by a succession of generals in an autocratic system. The way we destroyed that system and became a liberal democracy is through student protest.
                  So I believe in the power of protests.
                  The trick or the challenge of negotiating the current situation is where do we draw the line to hate speech, … Hate speech, whether it’s antisemitism, Islamophobia or any other form of hate speech, you have to discourage. … That’s where I draw the line.
                  But it’s a really tough line to draw.

                  What motivated you to write your book?
                  I always felt I had a book to get out. We didn’t talk about my aspirations as a college student. But I’m the accidental banker, accidental finance guy. I wanted to be an academic, to teach or to be a writer, which I considered noble callings.
                  I figured out pretty early on in my investment banking career that this was the quickest way for me to get to a level of having success and be able to make an impact on society by giving back. … Throughout this journey, I felt compelled to get this book out.
                  The book took me almost 20 years to write … because of my day job. … The perspective changes as you go from a 30-some-year-old to a 50-some-year-old. I looked back on my original writing and I couldn’t really recognize the young man who seemed so angry at the injustices of the world.
                  I wanted to be true to the evolving perspective and the different voices I had in my protagonist.

                  And it’s going to be made into a movie?
                  Yes … by this great production company called Anonymous Content. You must have seen the movie Spotlight. They are the producers of Spotlight, along with The Revenant and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
                  We are going to start shooting in the fall.

                  You have two sons?
                  They are both in their 20s. The first went to Haverford, majoring in political science … He is now an artist/fashion designer based in New York. My second son graduated from the University of Chicago. … He is going on to get his master’s in data science.

                  What is your favorite vacation spot?
                  We have a house in the Hamptons. … That’s where I go with my family to get some peace and rest (reminiscent of the poem “The Lake Isle of Innisfree,” by William Butler Yeats, he said).
                  The key line is, “And I shall have some peace there, for peace comes dropping slow.” I first came across this poem in college.
                  The image I got in my head as a 50-year-old was there’s so much stress in my life as there is in many people’s lives, particularly in my job. … So you are continually seeking peace. … Peace comes in drops. The image I got [is like when] you go to the hospital and get hooked up to an IV. You see the little drops of liquid coming drop by drop. I think that’s how peace comes.
                  Your job is … to just hold out your hands in Asian style and accept the drops of peace when it comes.

                  Now for some quick hits:
                  Favorite book? Too many to mention. But I will say literature starts and ends with William Shakespeare.
                  Favorite sports team? New York Yankees.
                  What gets you out of bed in the morning? I think it’s really life. That old Wordsworth line: “Bliss was in that dawn to be alive.” I feel really fortunate to be alive, and doing what I do with the family that I have.
                  What is your motto to live by? Be grateful. Be humble. Be seated.

                  https://www.inquirer.com/education/haverford-college-michael-kim-movie-board-chair-20240711.html#:~:text=Michael%20B.%20Kim%2C%20a%20Haverford%20College%20alumnus%20and%20private%20equity,of%20managers%20on%20July%201

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 17 2024

                  1. September 100% Probability of Rate Cut-CME Group

                  https://www.cmegroup.com/company/about-us.html


                  2. Equal Weight S&P-RSP New Highs


                  3. Equal Weight QQQ Breaks Out to New Highs


                  4. Everyone’s Favorite Chart of Year Small Cap Breaks Out to New Highs….Druck Went Size with Options on Small Cap

                  Small Caps 40-year record spread in performance vs. S&P

                  One-Month +11%


                  5. Lagging Healthcare Sector Making New Highs


                  6. Gold New Highs


                  7. KRE Regional Banks +18% One-Month


                  8. Emerging Markets Ex-China Breaking Out


                  9. Homebuilders Breakout


                  10. 5 Qualities of the Wisest People

                  They make the best of bad situations. Eric M. Brown PhD
                  KEY POINTS

                  • Wisdom is the key to living fulfilled lives in an increasingly complex world.
                  • Being able to identify the wise in our social circles can greatly increase our chances of success in all areas of our life.
                  • Knowing what wisdom looks like can help us make the best of less-than-desirable situations.

                  For those who are privileged enough, we are increasingly living in a society where we can make choices and pursue lifestyles that our grandparents would not have considered possible. Three generations ago, we were generally expected to remain living in the area in which we grew up and choose from among a few dozen careers or jobs, and our romantic prospects were limited to our immediate social circles.
                  Now we encourage each other to construct our lives from scratch, by following our dreams wherever they may lead us. As wonderful as this new freedom is, it also places a burden on each of us to make myriad choices and take sole responsibility for the lives we have constructed. The ability to make wise decisions may be more crucial now than ever.
                  Defining Wisdom
                  Knowing what wisdom entails and identifying who is wise may help us to live our lives in a way that is fulfilling and meaningful. For thousands of years, the discourse around wisdom has been centered on the study of philosophy and religion. But, over the past 20 years, psychologists have begun to research and define wisdom in ways that provide a picture of what a wise person looks like while providing descriptions of how they operate in the world.
                  Wisdom is often defined as the ability to make sound decisions and to act or advise others to behave in ways that are more likely to bring about desired outcomes. Some scholars have described wisdom as a form of practical intelligence. I’m drawn to the thought that wisdom is knowing the right thing to do, in the right way, at the right time, in the right context. If any one of these four elements is off, then a decision or action will not prove to be wise. Given the complexity of our world, it may greatly benefit us to be able to identify who is wise and how to act wisely.
                  Following are five attributes or abilities of wise persons:

                  1. They self-regulate. Wise persons are able to regulate their emotions so that they are able to think clearly about what decisions and actions may bring about a positive outcome, and, yet, emotions are not the enemy of wisdom. If a decision will entail strong emotions, a wise person must be able to feel the weight of a situation in order to account for how a particular decision may affect themselves, another person, or other parties.
                  2. They are virtuous. From philosophers such as Aristotle to the most recent psychologists who research wisdom, it is firmly believed that wise persons are virtuous people in that they act, make decisions, and counsel others in ways that are mindful of the well-being of all who are involved. A person who is highly intelligent or savvy may know how to get what they want, but, if they do so at the expense of others, they are not considered wise. Wise persons know that individuals tend to thrive in relationships in which everyone flourishes.
                  3. They see and recognize patterns. Psychologists who study wisdom tend to agree that those who are older are not necessarily wiser, but to be wise one must have enough experience to glean from to discern how and when to apply knowledge and past experiences to new situations. There is a certain degree of intelligence needed to be able to (a) recognize ways that a present situation may have elements that resemble past occurrences; (b) consider the present situation and discern what, if any, previous knowledge or experiences may apply; and (c) discern how one may apply past learnings to what is unknown. Wise persons can recognize patterns while appreciating the uniqueness of the new circumstance.
                  4. They navigate environments well. Robert Sternberg, a psychology professor at Cornell University, has written that one attribute of wise persons is their ability to decide between three possible responses to one’s environment when a person is not pleased with their given situation. A person can (a) simply adjust or adapt to their context, (b) seek to shape their situation, or (c) seek a new environment altogether. Most people will try to do a combination of the first two before moving to the third option. Wisdom is needed to discern whether a person can adjust or adapt without too much personal cost to themselves. One must also consider whether a person has the ability (e.g., influence or power) to bring about the desired change. If a person needs to choose a new environment, they will need wisdom to not move into another equally unsatisfying or worse situation.
                  5. They make the best of bad situations. Most people have lived long enough to know that sometimes we are not able to get anywhere near the outcome we desire. There are many factors in the world we do not have control over, so there are times when we simply lose. But wise people know that the way we weather deep disappointment has a significant impact on the persons we become. Furthermore, they know that there may be actions we can take, or refrain from taking, that will lessen the negative and long-term impact of an undesirable outcome. Wise persons make the best of less-than-ideal situations.

                  https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/healing-within/202207/5-qualities-the-wisest-people

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 16 2024

                  1. Last Week’s One-Day Small Cap Move was 6 Standard Deviation Event


                  2. One of the Issues for Small Cap is Shrinking Pool of Names….More Mutual Funds than Stocks

                  WSJ By Spencer Jakab

                  https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/where-have-all-the-good-stocks-gone-8e8fbb79?mod=itp_wsj


                  3. Alphabet Acquisition of WIZ is 2X any Prior Deals


                  4. Annualized S&P Gains Based on CPI Inflation Numbers

                  Schwab


                  5. Weekly Crypto Asset Flows

                  From DC Lite Substack  Crypto asset flows. Bitcoin saw the 5th largest weekly inflows ever (+$1.35bn). YTD inflows to crypto assets total a record $17.8bn.

                  CoinShares


                  6. Sales of Homes in Manhattan All Cash

                  NYT By Ronda Kaysen and Ella Koeze

                  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/06/upshot/manhattan-real-estate-cash.html


                  7. Mortgage Applications Update

                  The United States: Mortgage applications remained at multi-year lows last week.

                  Source: The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/


                  8. U.S. States with Shrinking Populations

                  From ZeroHedge blog www.zerohedge.com


                  9. Young People Are Flocking to the Republican Party

                  By Darragh Roche
                  Young people appear to be flocking to the Republican Party, according to the figures in a new poll from the Pew Research Center that surveyed Americans’ party affiliation.
                  The National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) published by Pew Research on Tuesday has drawn significant attention from analysts because it shows the GOP leading among those under 30.
                  There are just four months until the presidential election where former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, is hoping to defeat President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate.
                   
                  Former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures to the crowd before delivering the keynote address at the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s Road to Majority Policy Conference at the Washington Hilton on June 22, 2024 in Washington,… More SAMUEL CORUM/GETTY IMAGES
                  The NPORS found that, among all respondents, 47 percent said they were Republican or leaned Republican, while 46 percent said they were Democrats or leaned toward the Democrats.
                  The poll was conducted from February 1 to June 10 among 5,626 U.S. adults.st
                  Analyts were quick to point to the detailed figures regarding party affiliation among young people.
                  “By subgroup, the headline is age,” The New York Times’ chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
                  “NPORS found the GOP ahead on leaned party ID among 18 to 29 year olds, even though the sample was Biden+20 on 2020 recall vote. The sample size is fairly large (n=496) and it hasn’t shown anything like this in previous cycles,” Cohn added.
                  In an earlier post, Cohn said: “NPORS found leaned party identification at R+1. That’s the first time NPORS gives the GOP a party ID edge. Last year, it was D+2.
                  That’s significant in its own right, given the quality of the survey. But it will effect other polls — like that Ipsos poll that recently showed Trump/Biden tied.”
                  Newsweek has reached out to the Republican National Committee (RNC) for comment.
                  Matt Blackwell, a political scientist at Harvard who researches statistical methodology and U.S. politics, also drew attention to the figures for young people who are registered voters.
                  “Uhhhhh…. one odd tidbit from the Pew NPORS: respondents under 26 that are registered to vote are almost R +30,” Blackwell wrote on X. He shared a screenshot of the polling showing that the GOP led with 63.8 percent to Democrats’ 34.3 percent among registered voters under 26.
                  Blackwell added in a subsequent post: “Sorry, was dropping non-responses to the gender question with those back in it’s only R +26.”
                  He shared a screenshot of figures showing Republicans on 62.2 percent support compared to 36 percent for the Democrats.
                  Sharing the unweighted numbers from the poll, Blackwell said: “Maybe just sampling noise? MoE [margin of error] for each one is ±8 or so.”
                  “To match @Nate_Cohn’s age bracket of 18-29, here’s the breakdown for them. R +7 among the registered voters,” Blackwell wrote in another X post.
                  G. Elliott Morris, editorial director of data analytics at ABC News and FiveThirtyEight, wrote on X the results could be caused by “sample noise” but added that there are other explanations.
                  Morris said that one of the possibilities was that “we’re seeing a historic realignment among young voters, to the point where they are as GOP as the silent gen and white evangelical Christians.”
                  Morris added another possibility: “Selection into taking a poll is correlated with some unmeasured very political variable that’s throwing off most to all polls right now, even literally the best in the industry, and will cause havoc on Election Day (on the level of 2020, 2016, 1980, 1960, 1952, 1948).”

                  Young People Are Flocking to the Republican Party – Newsweek


                  10. 2,500 Years Ago, the Ancient Greeks Believed Every Great Speech Must Contain 3 Elements. It’s Still True Today

                  The ancient Greeks’ approach to public speaking has withstood the test of time and is still the secret of persuasion today.
                  EXPERT OPINION BY JESSICA STILLMAN, CONTRIBUTOR, INC.COM @ENTRYLEVELREBEL
                  If you’re looking for advice on how to become a great public speaker, there are plenty of people you can go to. Speaking coaches, VCs, Hollywood directors, jazz musicians, and MIT professors have all offered worthy tips and suggestions.
                  But perhaps the most compelling advice of all comes from the most unlikely source — ancient Greek philosophers. Before you groan and click away, hear me out.
                  Much has changed in the 2,500 or so years since Aristotle and Plato were walking around an agora discussing their ideas. Our lifestyles, tech, and understanding of the world are wildly different. But human beings themselves haven’t changed much.
                  Evolution is slow. Our brains are basically wired the same way then as now. And what worked in ancient Athens — before speakers had the advantage of fancy slides and eye-catching graphics — will almost certainly work now. Plus, these ideas have withstood millennia. They must be pretty worthwhile.
                  You could, of course, take whole college courses on what the Greeks had to say about what they called rhetoric and what most modern entrepreneurs would call delivering a great speech or presentation. But for time-pressed professionals, let’s start with the fundamentals. Ancient Greek thinkers taught that every convincing speech should contain three essential elements.
                  1. Ethos
                  Ethos is the ancient Greek word for character. Aristotle taught that speakers must establish their ethos — their character, credibility, or authority to speak on a subject — for their words to persuade anyone. Without this essential first ingredient, even the most clever and well-worded arguments will fall flat.
                  “Your audience needs to know (or to believe, which in rhetoric adds up to the same thing) that you are trustworthy, that you have a locus standi to talk on the subject, and that you speak in good faith. You need your audience to believe that you are, in the well-known words, ‘A pretty straight kind of guy,’ ” journalist Sam Leith explained in his book on great rhetoric through the ages, Words Like Loaded Pistols.
                  How do you establish this good standing with the audience? “No one likes a bragger or a name-dropper. But underselling yourself can be just as damaging to your chances of making an impact with your presentation,” warns Big Think’s Kris Flegg. “Often, the right balance can be struck with case studies and examples.”
                  You might mention people or companies you’ve worked with to use social proof to establish your credentials. Academics might mention their university or affiliations. Hard numbers help too. “It’s much easier to tell an audience that you’ve been coaching for 15 years than it is to tell them that you’re the best coach around,” Flegg points out.
                  The idea isn’t to toot your horn to enjoy the sweet sound of self-praise. It’s to foster your audience’s basic trust that you have the knowledge and character to talk about whatever it is you’re going to talk about.
                  2. Logos
                  OK, now your audience trusts you. What are you going to tell them? Logos is the content of your speech — the actual ideas you’re trying to get across and the way you link them together. And when it came to how to do this, Aristotle agreed with contemporary writing teachers: “Show, don’t tell.”
                  “Aristotle had a tip here: He found that the most effective use of logos is to encourage your audience to reach the conclusion to your argument on their own, just moments before your big reveal. They will relish in the fact that they were clever enough to figure it out, and the reveal will be that much more satisfying,” explains the Farnam Street blog.
                  By using evidence, anecdotes, and solid logic to lead your audience to the conclusions you want them to draw, you enlist them in your speech. That’s both more entertaining and more persuasive than just flat out telling them what they should think.
                  3. Pathos
                  So far, so logical. But as you may have observed, humans are not 100 percent logical creatures. Far from it. So according to Aristotle and other ancient Greek thinkers, a truly great speech must not just have a credible speaker making logically sound arguments. It must also have pathos, or emotion.
                  Offering statistics about your topic is one thing. Sharing a moving story about how your product or idea impacted an individual is an appeal to pathos. So is invoking the audience’s feelings of empathy, anger, frustration, or even patriotism or duty. You might even display a little well-timed emotion yourself.
                  The idea is to make your audience feel, not just think. But you don’t want to overdo it.
                  “In order to work, pathos needs to be used sparingly, where it has the strongest impact, and in a way that feels natural. If forced, pathos can have the opposite effect, making people distance themselves to avoid the awkwardness of your emotional outpouring,” warns neuroscientist and Ness Labs founder Anne-Laure Le Cunff in her own deep-dive post on the ancient Greek approach to persuasion.
                  Put these three elements together, and you had a recipe for true persuasion 2,500 years ago — and you have the recipe for it now.

                  2,500 Years Ago, the Ancient Greeks Believed Every Great Speech Must Contain 3 Elements. It’s Still True Today | Inc.com

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 15 2024

                  1. First Decrease in Inflation in 4 Years


                  2. Inflation by Sub-Sectors

                  First 2 chart today from Spilled Coffee Blog
                  https://www.spilledcoffee.co/


                  3. Equal Weight Outperformance Thursday was Third-Best Ever

                  Still on long way to go vs cap weight.

                  Bespoke https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-closer-cpi-sparks-epic-rotation-7-11-24


                  4. French Luxury Companies 30-Year Earnings Growth as Strong as Tech


                  5. From Market Ear-NVDA Stat

                  Market Ear “Since Start of 2023, 97% of NVDA returns have been driven by greater earnings vs 3% from valuation expansion.  However, year to date, NVDA NTM/PE Ratio has increased from 25x to 42X, accounting for 56% of the 165% YTD return.”

                  https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


                  6. Tech Companies Went from 5% of S&P Capex Spending to 25%

                  Capital Group

                  AI fever: Has it gotten too hot? | Capital Group


                  7. New World Order Semiconductors vs. Transports

                  Historically, Bulls did not happen without transports stocks.  Below is semiconductors vs. transports:


                  8. China 60% of World Steel Market

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/biden-trump-steel-tariffs-c44f4279?mod=past_editions


                  9. World Billionaires

                  WSJ By Tripti Lahiri

                  https://www.wsj.com/world/india/100-million-wedding-puts-crazy-rich-indians-in-spotlight-604fc704


                  10. Are These Bad Habits Ruining Your Brain?

                  3 simple ways to build a better brain at any age. Melissa Burkley Ph.D.

                  KEY POINTS

                  • Sleep, exercise, and a healthy diet all contribute to brain health—as do these underappreciated tips.
                  • Avoid sensory overload and focus on one task at a time for peak performance.
                  • Prioritize spending time with people face-to-face. 
                  • Hearing loss is associated with dementia. Protect your hearing by wearing earplugs around loud noise.

                  We live in an era where people are increasingly concerned about protecting their brain health. Unfortunately, we also live in an era where our technology and daily habits are rewiring our brains in unhealthy ways. Experts agree that the modern lifestyle poses a serious risk to our gray matter, chipping away at our neurons and making our brains slower, less creative, and less productive.
                  If we want to preserve our brains, now and for years to come, we are going to have to tweak our lifestyle. You probably already know that poor sleep, poor diet, and poor exercise put your brain at risk, so I’m not going to repeat those here. Instead, let’s examine some often overlooked habits that threaten your brain health and identify some simple fixes.

                  1. Avoid Sensory Overload
                  Think about the sheer number of information bites your brain has to juggle in a typical day. Now compare that number to what your parents had to deal with when they were your age.
                  We are living in a golden age of sensory overload. Emails, texts, Twitter feeds, Instagram, 24-hour news, 24-hour streaming, 24-hour everything! This constant stream of information means our brains rarely get a chance to process something before five other things are on its heels.
                  “No problem,” you might say, “I’m great at multitasking.” But you are wrong. Research has shown time and again that despite what people claim, multitasking always leads to poorer performance. Even worse, it dulls the brain. According to a study conducted at Gresham College, just having an email sitting unread in your inbox while you try to concentrate on a task can damage your problem-solving performance by an equivalent of 10 IQ points.
                  As MIT neuroscience Earl Miller explains, the human brain is “not wired to multitask well… When people think they’re multitasking, they’re actually just switching from one task to another very rapidly. And every time they do, there’s a cognitive cost in doing so.”
                  We think we are expert jugglers, keeping all of the balls churning in the air. But really, we are more like a novice who can only keep one ball going at a time. When our attention is focused on one ball, all the others come crashing down.
                  Once you accept that efficient multitasking is a myth, you can better identify ways to protect your precious brain energy. Be mindful of how you consume media throughout the day. Instead of checking your emails at all times of the day, consider relegating this task to a few time slots (for example, once in the morning and once in the afternoon). And look for creative ways to guard your brain against unnecessary information, especially during times when you want peak brain performance. For example, consider using apps that limit your most tempting distractions during designated hours.

                  2. Too Much FaceTime, Not Enough Face Time
                  Face-to-face interactions were already on the decline when the pandemic hit, and lockdown only made this trend worse. Before the pandemic, the average American adult spent 17 hours a day glued to a screen, be it a TV (4.5 hours), computer (5 hours), or gaming system (3 hours). That adds up to 6,259 hours a year, which constitutes an average of 44 years of your life staring at a screen!
                  article continues after advertisement
                  Digital tools are quickly replacing physical interaction, and while this makes remote work easier, it isn’t benefiting our brains. Human brains are hard-wired for social, face-to-face interactions. Social interactions encourage neuronal growth and give our brains opportunities to forge new connections. One University of Michigan study found that just 10 minutes of daily face-to-face conversation led to marked improvements in cognitive performance and memory. Social interaction also decreases loneliness and depression, both of which threaten brain health.
                  Look for ways to unplug from your electronics and include doses of social interaction throughout the day. Have a regularly scheduled sit-down dinner with your family and ban all phones from the table. Take regular walks with loved ones, which allows you to get two brain boosts in one: social connection and exercise. While the pandemic continues, join a social group online and once lockdown is over, make this activity face-to-face.

                  3. Protect Your Hearing
                  People often overlook how the brain’s next-door neighbors, the ears, play a vital role in cognitive health. But if you think about it, hearing is one of the most important ways your brain receives information from the external world. Anything that makes that information more difficult to process means your brain has to work extra hard to complete its task. No wonder then that hearing loss in older adults is associated with having less gray matter and a greater likelihood of dementia.
                  Sadly, hearing problems are on the rise. One in four American adults now shows signs of noise-induced hearing loss, making it the third most common chronic health condition (just after diabetes and cancer). We talk a lot about protecting our health by wearing sunscreen, using condoms, eating healthy, and exercising, but rarely do we discuss protecting our hearing.
                  The government isn’t doing much to regulate noise pollution these days and hopefully, that will change, but in the meantime, here are a few things you can do:

                  • Wearing ear protection while mowing your lawn or using other high-decibel machinery
                  • Wear earplugs at concerts
                  • Wear noise-canceling headphones on airplanes
                  • Keep the volume on all your electronic equipment to a minimum (Tip: If you can hold your headphones an arm’s length and still hear the music, your volume is too high)
                  • Embrace the joy of silence and schedule noise-free breaks throughout the day

                  For more quick tips on how to boost your brain health, check out my earlier article. Looking for an even deeper dive into this topic? Check out Dr. Sanjay Gupta’s excellent book, Keep Sharp: Build a Better Brain at Any Age.

                  https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-social-thinker/202103/are-these-bad-habits-ruining-your-brain

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 11 2024

                  1. Venture Funding of AI Start-Ups Doubles

                  From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading


                  2. America’s startup boom is still going strong. Here’s what it means for the economy

                  NPR Greg Rosalsky

                  What’s driving the boom
                  Haltiwanger says that, basically, two big buckets of new businesses are being created these days.

                  New businesses in the first bucket are capitalizing on a huge post-pandemic population shift. Many office workers are now either fully remote or hybrid. “People are not spending five days a week at the office in major downtown areas,” Haltiwanger says. Where people spend their time, they spend their money. Bad news for businesses in downtown areas. Good news for businesses where office workers live.

                  Sponsor Message
                  That’s why one of the big areas for new business growth is in food and accommodations, particularly in the outskirts of cities. Haltiwanger, together with Ryan Decker, calls this “the donut effect.” There’s now a hole lacking vibrant economic activity in many major business districts, and a delicious fried dough of new business opportunities in the suburbs surrounding them. Office workers need their doughnuts, coffee and sandwiches near their office, which is now more often at home.

                  However, if the story of the new business boom were limited to just delis, gyms and doughnut shops in suburban areas, the upside would be somewhat limited. Sure, remote and hybrid work is a revolutionary change for a large fraction of the workforce, but the business boom it has fed could be seen as mostly just a geographic reshuffling of economic activity. Fewer coffee shops in Manhattan. More in New Jersey or Brooklyn. That would likely have only a limited upside for the economy.

                  That’s why Haltiwanger is much more excited about the other big bucket of new businesses he has identified in the data: tech startups. This boom is proving, he says, to be the most persistent. These tech startups come in many stripes, but one subcategory has really caught his and other economists’ attention: startups working in artificial intelligence.

                  “I think we’re in a new tech wave,” Haltiwanger says. “I think AI is the poster child of this.”

                  https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2024/07/02/g-s1-7139/economy-startup-boom-america-productivity  Found at Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog https://ritholtz.com/2024/07/weekend-reads-617/


                  3. Roaring Kitty and CHWY

                  CHWY rally did not get back to 2023 levels…All-time high was $120 in 2021


                  4. Tesla’s Share of U.S. Electric Car Market Falls Below 50%

                  NYT By Jack Ewing
                  Tesla accounted for 49.7 percent of electric vehicles sales from April through June, down from 59.3 percent a year earlier as the company led by Elon Musk lost ground to General Motors, Ford Motor, Hyundai and Kia, the research firm, Cox Automotive said. It was the first time the company’s market share fell below 50 percent in a quarter, according to Cox. The firm, a leading auto industry researcher, estimates market share based on registrations, company reports and other data.

                  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/09/business/tesla-electric-vehicles-market-share.html#:~:text=A%20new%20report%20estimates%20that,second%20quarter%20of%20the%20year.


                  5. Not Yet But Small Cap Tech PSCT Good Chart to Watch


                  6. More Mag 7 Market Cap Stats

                  Blackrock Insights

                  https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/outlook


                  7. AI Power Demand May Grow by 10X

                  The Surging Problem of AI Energy Consumption-By Kelly Barner
                   
                  On April 9th, Rene Haas, CEO at British semiconductor and software design company Arm Holdings, made a statement about data center energy consumption ahead of a partnership announcement with U.S. and Japan-based universities. 
                  As Haas said, “by the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that’s probably 4% or less.”

                  25 percent of all power consumed in the United States might go to data processing in less than 6 years. No wonder all of the interest in AI and advanced computing has been driving up the stock prices of companies that own power plants: Vistra is up by 84 percent and Constellation Energy by 63 percent.

                  Many of the sources I consulted in preparation for this episode reference a report from The International Energy Agency. Titled simply Electricity 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2026, this 170 page report is full of data points, analysis, and projections.

                  For instance, the report states that a request to ChatGPT (one of the most popular examples of generative AI widely available today) requires an average 2.9 watt-hours of electricity. That is equivalent to turning on a 60-watt light bulb for about three minutes. That is nearly 10 times as much energy as the average Google search. 

                  If that doesn’t have your mind spinning, AI power demand is expected to grow by at least 10X between 2023 and 2026.
                  Companies that are heavily invested in the AI and data processing space are well aware of this problem. Microsoft and Google have well defined plans to achieve net negative emissions (forget net zero). Apple aspires to be net neutral globally, including their supply chains, by 2030. 

                  How they are all going to hit those targets without changing something about AI energy consumption is a mystery to me.

                  AI’s Insatiable Need for Energy
                  AI runs on GPUs (short for (graphics processing units), a type of chip used to process large amounts of data. Processing requirements and energy consumption increase when the AI is responding to a query. The more complex the model or the larger the dataset, the more energy must be consumed to complete the job.

                  In addition, queries involving imagery are more energy intensive than those focused on text. Generating one image using AI can use the same amount of energy as charging a smartphone according to researchers at Hugging Face, a collaborative AI platform. 

                  Energy isn’t just consumed when we use AI; it is also consumed when the AI is being trained. 
                  Alex de Vries, a data scientist and a Ph.D. candidate at Vrije University Amsterdam talks about a training phase v an inference phase. Training is the process of setting up the model and teaching it how to learn on its own, while inference is when you feed it scenarios to test it and refine how it works.

                  ChatGPT it took relatively little energy to train, but a lot to do inference, which makes sense, because it had to learn to do a lot of complex things in a very human-friendly way. 

                  ChatGPT-3 was the one cited as consuming about 10 times as much energy per query as a Google search. GPT-4 probably uses more power because it has more parameters and is a larger model.

                  https://artofprocurement.com/supply/the-surging-problem-of-ai-energy-consumption/


                  8. Rents Falling in Florida-Redfin

                  https://www.redfin.com/news/rents-fall-in-florida-austin-june-2024


                  9. F-16 Transfers to the Ukraine

                  Axios Jacob Knutson

                  https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/ukraine-russia-f16-jets-nato-summit


                  10. 80% of Adults Want Parental Consent Around Social Medial-Prof G Blog

                  Peer Pressure-Prof G-Scott Galloway

                  Age-gating social media is hugely popular. Over 80% of adults believe parental consent should be required for social media, and almost 70% want platforms to limit the time minors spend on them.

                  https://www.profgalloway.com/age-gating

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 10 2024

                  1. Concentrated Stock Rally Update…Highest Since 1972

                  Ned Davis


                  2. Cap Weight vs. Equal Weight Hits 2000 Level

                  Bespoke Investment Group

                  https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog


                  3. The Last 30 Days Has Narrowed the Market Even More

                  Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor Blog

                  https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/always-hard-beat-market


                  4. We Shall See….Mag 7 Earnings Projected to Slow.

                  Business Insider Jennifer Sor

                  https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-where-to-invest-investing-strategy-ai-economy-jpmorgan-2024-7


                  5. How Hard is De-Globalization and Onshoring?  AAPL Phone Uses Parts from 43 Countries.

                  AAPL straight up since AI announcements


                  6. Core PCE is Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure….Trending to 2%


                  7. KRE Regional Bank ETF Stuck Below 200-Week Moving Average Since February 2023


                  8. Will Regional Bank Commercial Real Estate  Move into Private Equity Hands?

                  Bloomberg Neil Callanan-
                  John Brady, global head of real estate at Oaktree, is similarly blunt about what’s ahead: “We could be on the precipice of one of the most significant real estate distressed investment cycles of the last 40 years,” he wrote in a recent note on the US. “Few asset classes are as unloved as commercial real estate and thus we believe there are few better places to find exceptional bargains.”

                  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-commercial-property-crash-set-103000002.html


                  9. Used Car and Truck Prices Giving Back Covid Spike.

                  Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET
                  Used Car & Truck Prices Spiral Down Further in Historic Plunge, Surrender 60% of Stunning 2-year Spike
                  But used EV prices still +61% from Jan. 2020, used ICE vehicles +31%. When will they bottom out? Compact cars approach affordability again.

                  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/09/used-car-truck-prices-spiral-down-further-in-historic-plunge-surrender-60-of-stunning-2-year-spike


                  10. Warren Buffett Solves Deficit in One Sentence

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 09 2024

                  1.The U.S. Now Produces More Energy Than It Consumes

                  Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management 
                  For the first time in more than sixty years, US energy production is now higher than US energy consumption, see chart below.

                   

                  2. Nasdaq Advance/Decline Line Image on Concentration of Stock Returns

                  A/D vs. NASDAQ index, showing a major gap & indicating just a few stocks are driving the entire index (Source: Zero Hedge

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/disconnect-between-market-valuation-and-economic-reality-couldnt-be-more-apparent


                  3. But Earnings Season Projected Positive…Forward Earnings for S&P Rising

                  MarketEar

                  https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


                  4. Software ETF Break-Out to New Highs.

                  Software IGV Chart


                  5. Jobs Numbers Should Push Fed to Lower Rates

                   


                  6. Short-Term Bonds Price Rising

                  Are short-term bonds pricing in rate cuts…50week thru 200week on long-term chart?


                  7. Intel Received Biggest Direct Investment from Chips Act

                   

                  Chips Act has been no help to chart…Held support levels and bounced 10% in 5 days.


                  8. Wind Passes Coal for U.S. Electricity 


                  9. These Are the Best U.S. National Parks—and They’re Not Even That Crowded

                  WSJ By Emily Pennington and Tom Corrigan

                  https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/best-uncrowded-national-parks-5a65e80a


                  10. Ranking the Best TV Shows of All-Time

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 08 2024

                  1. Last 10 Years Post July 4th

                  Bespoke Investment Group- The next chart shows the consistency of positive returns for the S&P 500 and all eleven sectors. Here again, Energy is the only exception to the trend of consistency over the following three months not being worse than the one month.  Additionally, the only sectors that have experienced positive returns more than 50% of the time for both periods are Financials and Technology.

                  https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-best-of-times-the-worst-of-times

                  2. 500 Days Since the Last 2% Down Move in the S&P

                  Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
                  We have gone 500 days since the last 2% down move for SPX (2/21/2023). This is the fourth longest streak since April 1987 and will move into the third-longest if we do not see a 2% drop in the next 11 calendar days. Going so long without a 2% drop seems unnatural and has been highlighted as a point of potential concern for some investors going into the second half of the year. A worried investor may suggest that since we have gone so long without a 2% daily decline, we’re just increasing our likelihood for more 2% declines soon. Not necessarily true.
                  Most of the 2% days happen within close proximity to another 2% day. Only 336 trading days since April 1987 have seen a 2% decline in SPX, which equates to roughly 3.5% of total trading days. Out of those 336 days, 206 instances occurred within two weeks of another 2% down day. That skews the averages to favor more frequent events annually. Several periods saw multiple extended runs between 2% down days. Only eight 2% down days occurred from August 1991 to March 1997, including three consecutive stretches with more than 350 days between events. There were 10 such events from June 2012 to June 2015, with six of those seeing at least 100 days between events. We are eventually going to see another 2% daily drop in SPX, but that doesn’t mean we have to “catch-up” to the 16 day annual average for such events.

                  https://data.nasdaq.com/publishers/NDW


                  3. Hedge Funds Increasing Small Cap Shorts


                  4. You Thought Active Managers Can’t Beat the Market 


                  5. Higher Rates Equals Less Pools

                  POOL stock back to 2022 correction levels…-30% from 2024 highs


                  6. Dow Transports -4% 2024

                  Tech dominating market…This chart shows Dow Tranports versus S&P..straight down since mid-2023


                  7. Lumber Prices Sideways -75% from Highs

                  Lumber 18 month sideways channel…see which way it breaks.


                  8. Lumber Hit $1700 in 2021


                  9. Close to 50% of America Would Remove Both Presidential Candidates

                  https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-expands-lead-over-biden-after-debate-as-voters-age-worries-grow-wsj-poll-finds-c3a793ab


                  10. Get Over Fear of Losing Money

                  On Fear

                  Get over the fear of losing money so you can make money
                  Money and fear. For so many of us, they go hand in hand.

                  •  Some people fear losing the money they have
                  • Other people fear that they won’t be able to make money again in the future

                  It’s natural to fear loss. I’ve been there. I lost close to two-thirds of my money within a year when I first started investing. 
                  It’s painful to lose a significant amount of money. And that fear of loss has affected me so badly in the past that I became afraid of getting back into investing.
                  This same fear makes many people avoid the stock market. But if we let this fear control us, we will never take any risk.
                  Just like in any other aspect of life, there will always be risks involved when it comes to wealth building. Whether that’s in the stock market, real estate, or starting a business – you can always lose money.
                  But the problem is that we often get too fearful. And as a result, we never even invest. If we do invest, we don’t invest nearly enough.
                  End result: You leave a lot of money on the table.
                  Look, we’ve all hear the same old story of, “Many of the richest people in the world built their wealth with stocks.”
                  Think of Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk. All their wealth is created through the stock market.
                  We also can invest in stocks. But for some reason, we get fearful.

                  • “What if I lose my money?”
                  • “What if there’s a recession?”
                  • “What if the dollar collapses?”
                  • “What if there’s another war or pandemic?”

                  I get it. I’ve had those thoughts too. Especially if you spend some time on social media, you think the world is about to end.
                  But just look at the past 100 years. We’ve dealt with world wars, natural disasters, recessions, pandemics, currency issues, elections, social unrest… and yet, the stock market has gone up through everything.
                  What’s going to stop it if those things can’t stop it?
                  We need to overcome the fear of loss if we want to build long-term wealth. After all, when it comes to passive investing, losses are only temporary. 
                  Marcus Aurelius said this about time:
                  “Time is like a river made up of the events which happen, and a violent stream; for as soon as a thing has been seen, it is carried away, and another comes in its place, and this will be carried away too.” 
                  In a similar way, the stock market is also like a river, which keeps flowing no matter what’s going on in the world. Sometimes the current is faster or wilder than other times. But the river always flows in the same direction.
                  The stock market experiences its ups and downs, but on the whole, it keeps going up.
                  Those ups and downs are natural. Something temporary. 
                  Acceptance of this nature takes away our fear of investing. When we zoom out and stop looking at the day to day moves, we realize that it’s more costly to not invest.
                  The main takeaway from the Stoics is this: Never fear something that’s natural.
                  Next week, we’ll see how we can combine the skill of managing both fear and greed to become a more consistent investor.
                  All the best.
                  -Darius  https://dariusforoux.com/stoic-and-wealthy/

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 02 2024

                  1. A Snapshot of Massive Bond Bear Market

                  From Abnormal Returns Blog -Bespoke Blog

                  www.abnormalreturns.com


                  2. B of A: Bull Bear Indicator is Neutral

                  Market Ear Blog https://themarketear.com/the-newsletter


                  3. Fear and Greed Index Neutral

                  https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


                  4. Trading in Intra-Day Options Keeps Increasing as so do Losses.

                  Barrons-The options are inspiring retail traders who moved on from meme stocks during the pandemic, says John Bartleman, CEO of brokerage TradeStation. “A lot of customers are jumping into 0DTE. It’s a popular trading vehicle,” he says.

                  Despite big gains touted through social media, some academic research indicates the options are a losing trade for most people. Retail investors lost more than $350,000 on 0DTE options on an average trading day between May 2022 and September 2023, according to a study by researchers at the University of Münster in Germany. “0DTE options are on average not a lucrative investment vehicle for retail traders,” the researchers wrote.

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/zero-dated-options-rules-volatility-nvidia-apple-vix-3bf8dcac?mod=past_editions


                  5. Housing Inflation Rolling Over

                  https://fundstrat.com


                  6. Microsoft-Ballmer Richer than Gates


                  7. Tesla Recaptures 200-Day Moving Average


                  8. Roaring Kitty Gamestop GME is Negative on One-Year Return


                  9. Satellite Images Show Expansion of Suspected Chinese Spy Bases in Cuba-WSJ

                  By Warren P. Strobel
                  WASHINGTON—Images captured from space show the growth of Cuba’s electronic eavesdropping stations that are believed to be linked to China, including new construction at a previously unreported site about 70 miles from the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, according to a new report.
                  The study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, follows reporting last year by The Wall Street Journal that China and Cuba were negotiating closer defense and intelligence ties, including establishing a new joint military training facility on the island and an eavesdropping facility.

                  https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-cuba-suspected-spy-bases-da1d6ec9


                  10. Meaningfully Informed -Seth Godin

                  Community requires individuals to have the option of speaking up. If we’re in this together, we ought to be able to chime in.

                  But while every member of the community can speak out, the ones that are heard also have something useful to say. Being informed is a requirement to be heard.

                  Sometimes, our insight can come from firsthand experience, but it’s most likely that we’ve learned about the issue and the alternatives we face. 

                  Education is at the heart of the conversation. Organized schooling, substantial peer engagement and intelligent media consumption give us a chance to earn our opinion.

                  Successful communities celebrate learning. 

                  https://seths.blog/2024/06/meaningfully-informed/

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 01 2024

                  1. Bitcoin ETF Sideways Channel

                  IBIT after big run-up, now in sideways pattern, see how it breaks.


                  2. Bitcoin Trades 24/7 But Since Launch of ETF….Weekend Trading Volume Sinks

                  (Bloomberg) – The proportion of Bitcoin traded over weekends has declined to an all-time low of 16% this year, according to cryptocurrency research firm Kaiko. The drop comes in the wake of the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded-funds, which appears to have shifted the periods when Bitcoin is traded to be more in line with the schedule of traditional equity exchanges and has lowered its price volatility.

                  One of crypto’s noteworthy traits is that, unlike stocks, it trades during all hours of the day and even on Saturdays and Sundays. In the past, Bitcoin trading gained notoriety for its “Wild Weekends,” where the digital currency would experience wide price fluctuations.

                  But that phenomenon seems to be cooling since Bitcoin’s weekend trading volume has continued to dwindle from its high of 28% in 2019. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs is likely a big reason why.

                  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boring-bitcoin-sends-weekend-trading-143000465.html


                  3. China Giving Back May Run-Up

                  FXI Large Cap China…May 20th gave bullish upside 50day thru 200day..now pulling back


                  4. That Same Run-Up Started Catch Up vs. India


                  5. U.S and India Growing Percentage of World Market Cap

                  Bespoke Investment Group —We began the week with our Chart of the Day on Monday looking at Bloomberg’s % of World Market Cap indices.  As shown below, the US now makes up 48% of world stock market cap, which is a record high going back to late 2003.  Ten years ago in 2014, the US made up roughly 36% of world market cap, so it has risen 12 percentage points since then.  Note that while the US makes up nearly half of world stock market cap, it only makes up about 25% of global GDP.

                  While most countries have seen their share of world stock market cap fall as the US has risen, India is really the only major player on the world stage that has also seen its share increase consistently over time.  As shown below, India has seen its share of world market cap more than double since its COVID low in early 2020.

                  https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/this-weeks-cant-miss-analysis-6-28-24


                  6. Nike Breaks Hard Thru 2022 Bear Market Levels


                  7. Silver Outperforming S&P in First Half 2024


                  8. This is not Meant to be Political….Hydrocarbon 2004-2023

                  Authored by Robert Bryce via Substack
                  I’ve updated it with the latest figures from Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the Statistical Review.

                  From Zerohedge https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/numbers-dont-lie


                  9. 25% of Offices Will Be Empty By 2026 -Chartr.com

                  While employees initially had to create home office setups by necessity, factors like work-life balance, reduced time spent commuting, and generally becoming accustomed to the comforts of their own desks (and/or couches) left many with a taste for the hybrid 9-5 model that still lingers today… despite mounting pressure from businesses trying to clamp down on remote working.

                  Indeed, the desire to WFH remains strong: research cited by The Economist indicates that the typical worker worldwide wants 2 days at home — an entire day more than the actual average — and a LinkedIn survey in January found that now only 39% of US employees want a fully in-person job. 

                  With WFH looking increasingly established, one sector in particular is struggling to adjust to the new normal: commercial real estate. In fact, although US office vacancy rates are already at record highs, according to a report from Moody’s published yesterday, they are set to continue rising up to 24% by early 2026, driven by the expiration of leases and an influx of new office buildings onto the market.

                  As we noted earlier this week, the pressures on the commercial real estate sector are weighing heavily on REITs and other real estate-exposed stocks… but, while there might be short-term pain, the outlook is not entirely bleak. Moody’s foresees vacancy rates eventually stabilizing as redundant offices are either demolished or repurposed into warehouses and residential properties.


                  10. Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA Grew Up in Russia…Why He Doesn’t Invest in China?

                  Excerpt #3: Why I Don’t Invest in China

                  The easiest question to answer of all is why I don’t invest in China. If every question were this straightforward, life would be much simpler. 

                  So, why do I avoid investing in China? 

                  For the same reason I don’t invest in Russia or any country where I operate by this one simple rule: If I were to write a negative article about the country’s leader, would I feel comfortable traveling there afterward? 

                  If the answer is no, I probably shouldn’t invest in that country.

                  Let me share a true story. 

                  In 2008, I went to Russia for the first and only time since leaving in 1991. This was after the government had stolen a company from its shareholders. I was planning to write a negative article about the incident and actually did write it, but I never published it. 

                  The reason I didn’t publish was that I realized nobody in Russia would care about the content of my article, except if I got arrested for jaywalking. They would find out I was an American citizen, Google me, find the article, and then my fate might change.

                  For that reason, I’ve never invested in Russia; and for the same reason, I’ve never invested in China. 

                  The Chinese government decided that Jack Ma said something wrong. By the way, this is something I always had an issue with regarding Charlie Munger. Somehow, he looked at Singapore and Hong Kong and fantasized about China. I looked at China and just saw a bigger version of Russia, albeit maybe slightly more pragmatic. 

                  This is why we never really invested in China. I don’t want to wake up one morning and find out that a CEO said something the government didn’t like, and suddenly I don’t own the company anymore.
                  https://investor.fm/about/

                  But do you know what happened during this period? Where do we begin …
                  1.3 million Americans died while fighting nine major wars.
                  Roughly 99.9% of all companies that were created went out of business.
                  Four U.S. presidents were assassinated.

                  • 675,000 Americans died in a single year from a flu pandemic.
                  • 30 separate natural disasters killed at least 400 Americans each.
                  • 33 recessions lasted a cumulative 48 years.
                  • The number of forecasters who predicted any of those recessions rounds to zero.
                  • The stock market fell more than 10% from a recent high at least 102 times.
                  • Stocks lost a third of their value at least 12 times.
                  • Annual inflation exceeded 7% in 20 separate years.
                  • The words “economic pessimism” appeared in newspapers at least 29,000 times, according to Google.

                  Our standard of living increased 20-fold in these 170 years, but barely a day went by that lacked tangible reasons for pessimism.
                  Getting Wealthy vs. Staying Wealthy · Collab Fund

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 28 2024

                  1. Nasdaq 100 Short Interest Chart

                  Shorts are dead


                  2. Largest Weekly Inflow Ever to Tech Funds


                  3. July Seasonality for Nasdaq

                  Dave Lutz Jones Trading 
                  Nearly a quarter of all 1-month peaks in the Nasdaq 100 happened in July.  That’s twice as many as any other month.  Quite a few factors lining up for a short- to medium-term peak soon.


                  4. Top 10 Companies in U.S. Equals GDP of China


                  5. Home Construction ETF Flat for the Year

                  ITB -15% from highs…flat in 2024


                  6. Micron -15% from Highs

                  MU pulling back to 50-day moving average.


                  7. Gold was Rising with S&P Until May 2024

                  Gold vs. S&P rolled over in May/June


                  8. Waymo Full-Time in San Fran-Morningbrew

                  AUTO
                  Waymo’s California dream come true

                  People who are afraid of talkative Uber drivers, rejoice: Driverless taxi rides are one step closer to ubiquity. Waymo One, the ride-hailing service that employs self-driving white Jaguars, is now available to everyone in San Francisco.
                  San Francisco is the second city to go full Waymo, four years after the company opened operations to the general public in Phoenix, Arizona. Not to be confused with John Mulaney’s soda-delivering robot friend, Saymo, Waymo was started 15 years ago as a project within Google’s parent, Alphabet. Multiple tests and destroyed cars later, it stands out as a pioneer in the nascent robotaxi space.
                  And it could be coming to a city near you. Waymo currently offers limited service in Los Angeles and plans to start operating in the San Francisco of Texas—Austin—later this year.
                  Everyone’s cool with this?
                  Waymo’s success makes it almost easy to forget that it’s had plenty of hiccups:

                  • As recently as last month, a probe by the US Highway Traffic Safety Administration discovered safety incidents relating to Waymo’s cars.
                  • Waymo recalled software in all its cars earlier this month after one crashed into a telephone pole.
                  • In February, a San Francisco crowd set a Waymo car on fire.

                  And yet, Waymo is still cruising. The company said 300,000 people were on its San Francisco waitlist before it opened to the public. Waymo claims that its cars have driven riders over 3.8 million miles across SF as of April.
                  Its next goal…make money. As the company vies for a piece of the market dominated by Uber and Lyft, it hopes to find a way to be profitable and make back some of the billions that Google has spent to develop it.
                  Zoom out: Waymo is the future of the US robotaxi industry. Its closest competitor, GM’s autonomous vehicle unit Cruise, had its licenses in California suspended in October after a series of collisions.—CC

                  9. Value of U.S. Homes by State


                  10. Wealth Building

                  By Morgan Housel @morganhousel
                  Here’s how the U.S. economy performed over the last 170 years:

                  But do you know what happened during this period? Where do we begin …
                  1.3 million Americans died while fighting nine major wars.
                  Roughly 99.9% of all companies that were created went out of business.
                  Four U.S. presidents were assassinated.

                  • 675,000 Americans died in a single year from a flu pandemic.
                  • 30 separate natural disasters killed at least 400 Americans each.
                  • 33 recessions lasted a cumulative 48 years.
                  • The number of forecasters who predicted any of those recessions rounds to zero.
                  • The stock market fell more than 10% from a recent high at least 102 times.
                  • Stocks lost a third of their value at least 12 times.
                  • Annual inflation exceeded 7% in 20 separate years.
                  • The words “economic pessimism” appeared in newspapers at least 29,000 times, according to Google.

                  Our standard of living increased 20-fold in these 170 years, but barely a day went by that lacked tangible reasons for pessimism.
                  Getting Wealthy vs. Staying Wealthy · Collab Fund

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 27 2024

                  1. Valuation of Largest Stocks vs. DotCom


                  2. Hedge Funds Holding Top 20 Largest Names in S&P

                  The Most Popular Stocks in Hedge Fund Portfolios  Visual Capitalist By Niccolo Conte

                  https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-most-popular-stocks-in-hedge-fund-portfolios/


                  3. FedEx +15% Day…Breaks to New Highs

                  Fedex trades like tech stock yesterday.


                  4. Market Projections for Interest Rates

                  End of 2025 4% Fed Funds-Dorsey Wright

                  https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright-investment-research-technical-analysis-platform


                  5-6. The Problem with Europe

                  From Irrelevant Investor Blog


                  7. Materials Sector ETF (VAW) Relative to S&P at Covid Lows

                  https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VAW/holdings/


                  8. Follow-Up to Yesterday’s Streamer War Charts….Less Original Shows


                  9. TSA Checkpoints New All-Time Highs in Travel


                  10. Primal Blueprint Living Laws

                  The 10 Primal Blueprint Laws: Your Ultimate Guide to Healthy Living

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 26 2024

                  1. Tech Still Powering Rally


                  2. Streak Without 2% Correction

                  Jefferies Zach Goldberg
                  335 and Counting…Bespoke noted, while the current streak is only about a third as long as the longest on record, if we get to July 17th without a one-day drop of 2%+, this will be the longest streak without a 2%+ drop since 2007.


                  3. Semiconductor Seasonality—NVDA 20% of Index


                  4. Streaming Wars-PARA Lost $1.6B on Streaming Last Year


                  5. Comcast Lost $2.7B on Streaming Last Year


                  6. NFLX Vs. CMCSA Chart


                  7. “Everyone Else” Catching Tesla

                  By Tom Randall Bloomberg

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-26/tesla-poised-to-lose-its-six-year-ev-market-majority-in-the-us?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


                  8. Home Prices 47% Higher than Early 2020

                  CNBC

                  https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/housing-affordability-price-mortgage-rates.html

                  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS


                  9. McDonalds Margins vs. WEN/BK

                  Barrons


                  10. Google Studied Gen Z

                  Business Insider Adam Rogers

                  What they heard surprised them. Young folks basically say they see no difference between going online for news versus for social interaction. Gen Zers approach most of their digital experience in what the researchers call “timepass” mode, just looking to not be bored. If they want to answer a question or learn something new, they might turn to a search engine, but they’re acquiring new information mainly via their social feeds, which are algorithmically pruned to reflect what they care about and who they trust. In short, they’ve created their own filters to process an onslaught of digitized information. Only the important stuff shows up, and if something shows up, it must be important.

                  Gen Zers told researchers they spend most of their digital lives in “timepass” mode — engaging in light, obligation-free content. Jigsaw and Gemic

                  They don’t read long articles. And they don’t trust anything with ads, or paywalls, or pop-ups asking for donations or subscriptions. “If you’re making clickbait, you have zero faith in your content,” one subject told the researchers. “And news sources — even CNN and The New York Times — do clickbait. I throw those articles away immediately.”

                  For Gen Z, the online world resembles the stratified, cliquish lunchroom of a 1980s teen movie. Instead of listening to stuffy old teachers, like CNN and the Times, they take their cues from online influencers — the queen bees and quarterback bros at the top of the social hierarchy. The influencers’ personal experience makes them authentic, and they speak Gen Z’s language.

                  “Gen Zers will have a favorite influencer or set of influencers who they essentially outsource their trust to, and then they’re incredibly loyal to everything that influencer is saying,” says Beth Goldberg, Jigsaw’s head of research. “It becomes extremely costly to fall out of that influencer’s group, because they’re getting all their information from them.”

                  https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-most-trusted-news-source-online-comment-sections-google-2024-6

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 25 2024

                  1-2. Start with a Couple Chats from Callum Thomas

                  No shock…global stocks and small value hit new lows in valuation vs. large growth

                  Defensive Sectors-Staples, Healthcare, Utilities New Lows in ETF market share

                  https://www.topdowncharts.com


                  3. Nvidia Daily Volume Dwarfs Mag 7

                  Rosenberg Research
                  Nvidia, a $126 stock, saw trading volume of around 520 million shares on Thursday and more than 600 million on Friday. The norm so far this year has been over 400 million shares traded daily (split-adjusted), which is beyond the pale. Most of the rest of the Magnificent 7 have seen daily trading volume of between 20 million and 70 million shares, a fraction of Nvidia’s activity. Back in the early 1980s, just before I started in this business, a big day for the overall market was 20 million shares. This is not only surreal, but also it is difficult to understand in terms of the implications of this extraordinary situation when the world’s largest company sees its shares trade hands a half-billion times in one day. Why it’s concerning is that it highlights the extent to which dramatic liquidity inflows are underpinning these mega-cap stocks.
                  https://www.rosenbergresearch.com


                  4. Market Leading Semiconductor Sub-Sector -7.2% Since From Highs


                  5. Bitcoin Technicals Update from Bespoke Investments

                  Bespoke Investment Group
                  -Like many stocks, Bitcoin has also found itself treading water for the last several months trying to hang on to the gains from the late 2023/early 2024 rally. This morning, prices are down another 4% near the $60,000 level. After peaking above $70,000 in March, prices have been drifting lower in a sideways range, and if the April lows in the $57,000 range don’t hold, it could be a long summer.

                  From a longer-term perspective, $65,000 seems to be a level that Bitcoin just can’t shake. In early 2021, it briefly flirted with that level and then quickly erased more than half of its value. Later that year, it got there again and managed to stay there for a few days before crashing over 75%. It took two years and a few months to get back there again, and this time Bitcoin managed to hang around $65,000 again and even take out $70,000, but that level has failed to hold again.

                  https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bespokes-morning-lineup-6-24-24-bitcoin-tries-to-hold-the-sixties


                  6. Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy weight-loss drug approved in China

                  Reuters-By Andrew Silver 
                  The number of overweight adults in China, the world’s second most populous country, is projected to reach 540 million by 2030, 2.8 times higher than 2000 levels, a Chinese public health study showed in 2020. Numbers who are obese are seen jumping 7.5 times to 150 million.  But Novo may have a much shorter time in the Chinese market to make the most of its early-mover advantage in weight-loss drugs.
                  Its patent on semaglutide, the key ingredient in Wegovy and its diabetes drug Ozempic, is set to expire in less than two years in China compared to in 2031 in Europe and Japan and in 2032 in the U.S, and local drugmakers are racing to develop generic or biosimilar versions.
                  Novo is also in the midst of a legal fight in China over the patent, an adverse ruling in which could make it lose its semaglutide exclusivity even sooner. That would make China the first major market where it is stripped of patent protection for the drugs.  At least two Chinese firms, Livzon Pharmaceutical Group (000513.SZ), opens new tab and Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering, have already applied to begin commercial sales of Ozempic copies.
                  https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/novo-nordisk-says-semaglutide-approved-long-term-weight-management-china-2024-06-25/


                  7. Fixed Income Yields Above U.S. Inflation

                  Advisors Perspective Blog

                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/74/74c2cda3a8e554064e51f51b42246d4f.png


                  8. UBS Selling Midtown Office Via Online Auction


                  9. Rolex Prices -40%


                  10. High Stress Resiliency Linked To Specific Types Of Gut Microbes And Metabolites: Study

                  ZEROHEDGE BY TYLER DURDEN
                  Authored by Amy Denney via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
                  A new study came out on Friday in Nature Mental Health reveals new evidence that the gut and brain work together to build resilience to stress, contributing to a growing body of research that suggests the gut is a possible pathway to help prevent or minimize stress-related psychiatric conditions.
                  Specifically, a high-resilience phenotype of the gut microbiome was identified based on a mix of microbes and metabolites that had anti-inflammatory and gut-barrier integrity features. This phenotype was associated with lower levels of anxiety and depression.
                  Besides looking at the traits of the microbiome, the study used clinical and psychological assessment tools and MRIs that examined structural and functional roles of the brain. The study included 116 healthy participants, 18 to 60 years old.
                  The main finding suggests that “the microbiome is critical in shaping resilience” and modifying the gut microbiome “can optimize mental health.”

                  Resiliency Equates to Health

                  The differences in microbes and metabolites between high-resilience and low-resilience individuals were distinct in the study. High resiliency was associated with biomarkers indicating better gut barrier integrity, lower depression and anxiety psychopathology, higher cognitive function, less gray matter volume in the brain, and increased functional circuitry in the brain.
                  Compromised or weakened gut barrier, sometimes called “leaky gut,” is being considered as a potential factor in a number of chronic diseases. Dysbiosis, or an imbalance of gut microbes, is associated with chronic diseases and inflammation.
                  Analysis of the gut microbiome in the high-resilience individuals noted increased levels of microbes and metabolites that are:

                  • Better at environmental adaptation
                  • Able to replicate and repair DNA
                  • Better at carbohydrate and energy metabolism
                  • Anti-inflammatory

                  Ms. Church said in terms of psychosocial traits, the high-resilient individuals were also more non-judgmental, easy-going, kind, extroverted, and mindful. They had lower levels of perceived stress and also low levels of neuroticism.
                  She described the relationship between the gut and brain like a car with working brakes.
                  “If you have great working brakes, you’re able to modulate or control the situation, have emotional regulation and cognitive response,” she said. “And they had gut bacteria and metabolites associated with reduced inflammation and better gut barrier integrity.”

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/high-stress-resiliency-linked-specific-types-gut-microbes-and-metabolites-study

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 24 2024

                  1. NVDA $2T to $3T in 30 Day vs. Warren Buffett

                  Jim Reid Deutsche Bank


                  2. Short-Interest in S&P and QQQ Hits New Lows

                  JP Morgan

                  Found at Daily Dirt Nap Newsletter https://www.dailydirtnap.com/


                  3. Ned Davis Research- U.S. Households at Record Stock Allocation


                  4. Long-Term Trends in S&P

                  From Ben Carlson Blog

                  https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/06/when-is-the-mean-reversion-coming-in-the-stock-market


                  5. The Defense Industry Can’t Hire Workers Fast Enough -Axios

                  By Hope King and Colin Demarest


                  6. Tom Lee Fundstrat -Autos and Housing Effect on CPI

                  https://fundstrat.com


                  7. Home Prices to Median Income Increases by 50% vs. 1990

                  Chartr
                  -As wage growth struggles to keep pace with home price inflation, buying a house has felt increasingly out of reach for millions of Americans recently — a trend that’s been ongoing for the last 3+ decades.
                  Indeed, in 2023, a typical home in America will cost buyers 4.9x the median income. That’s a 50%+ increase on the 3.1x price-to-income ratio averaged in 1990 and only slightly below the record figure set in 2022, according to new analysis from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.
                  Furthermore, this is a phenomenon that’s happening almost everywhere: a whopping 378 out of the 384 American Metropolitan areas (98.4%) that Chartr analyzed from the Harvard report saw rises between 1990 and 2023. Just 2 areas reported a home-price-to-median-income ratio that was the same as in 1990 and only 4 reported a drop.

                  Inflation continues to be the factor in how Americans perceive the economy — and the cost of houses is a major factor in that sentiment. Across the US, home prices have surged by 47% since the start of 2020 and have more than doubled since 2010, based on data from the NAR cited in the report.
                  While new-home construction has fallen to a 4-year low, there’s also fewer existing homes entering the market. Rising interest rates have created a “golden handcuff” effect, discouraging homeowners from selling and taking on new, more expensive mortgages. Additionally, more homes are owned by older generations who are less likely to move. This has all culminated in a stark reality: you now need an annual income of $100,000 to afford a median-priced home in nearly half of all metro areas.
                  As for renters? The majority of them are already declaring the American Dream of homeownership dead.

                  www.chartr.com


                  8. Median Price Single Home $424,500 -Wolf Street Blog


                  9. The Average Heat Waves in U.S.

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/heat-wave-economy-damage-d63ce343?mod=past_editions


                  10. Farnam Street Blog-Roger Federer

                  Insights-“Perfection is impossible. In the 1526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches. Now, I have a question for you.
                  What percentage of points do you think I won in those matches? Only 54%.
                  In other words, even top-ranked tennis players win barely more than half of the points they play. When you lose every second point on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot.
                  You teach yourself to think, okay, I double-faulted … it’s only a point. Okay, I came to the net, then I got passed again; it’s only a point. Even a great shot, an overhead backhand smash that ends up on ESPN’s top 10 playlist. That, too, is just a point.
                  And here’s why I’m telling you this. When you’re playing a point, it has to be the most important thing in the world, and it is. But when it’s behind you, It’s behind you. This mindset is really crucial because it frees you to fully commit to the next point and the next point after that, with intensity, clarity, and focus.
                  You want to become a master at overcoming hard moments. That is, to me, the sign of a champion. The best in the world are not the best because they win every point. It’s because they lose again and again and have learned how to deal with it. You accept it. Cry it out if you need to and force a smile.”
                  — Roger Federer
                  https://fs.blog/

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 21 2024

                  1. Technology ETF RSI 80

                  For Technical Traders…Short-term RSI indicator on XLK …..From Dave Lutz Jones Trading XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, 14-day RSI now above 80 for the first time since September 2020.  It suffered a 15% drawdown in 2 weeks back then.


                  2. Semiconductors vs. Software 2024.

                  SMH (semis) vs. IGV (software)


                  3. Software Valuations Below 2020 Trough


                  4. Bespoke Investment Group-Nearing 10x Sales for Large-Cap Tech

                  In today’s Chart of the Day we took a look at valuations across the Tech sector and how things stand relative to historical extremes.  (It’s an eye-opening read, so make sure to check it out if you haven’t seen it yet.)

                  Below is a quick look at trailing 12-month price to sales ratios (P/S) over the last five years for the large-cap S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2,000 along with each index’s respective Technology sector.  As shown, the Russell 2,000’s price to sales ratio is just 1.25x, which is slightly below its average P/S ratio over the last five years.  The Russell 2,000 Technology sector’s price to sales ratio is higher at 2.8x, but that’s still below the 2.9x P/S ratio for the S&P 500 as a whole.  Incredibly, the S&P 500 Tech sector’s price to sales ratio has pushed all the way up to 9.8x, which is well above its high at the peak in late 2021.  A 9.8x multiple is attractive if you’re looking at price to earnings (P/E), but for Tech stocks to be trading at 9.8x annual sales, that’s just a remarkably high number.  (As mentioned, we’ve got further coverage of this topic in today’s Chart of the Day if you’d like to read more of our thoughts.)

                  Below is a look at the stocks in the large-cap Russell 1,000 that have seen the biggest increase in their price to sales (P/S) ratios since the current bull market began on 10/12/22.  As shown, NVIDIA (NVDA) has seen its share price rise more than 1,000% during this bull market, but its P/S ratio has made 32 turns higher from 9.7x up to 41.9x!  That’s by far the biggest jump of any stock in the index.  Of the 30 stocks shown, the average P/S ratio has risen 9.6 points from 8.6x up to 18.2x, and most stocks on the list are Tech stocks.

                  https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/nearing-10x-sales-for-large-cap-tech


                  5. The Bear Market in Diversified Portfolio Investing

                  Bloomberg Lu WangThe numbers are stark. Money managers who obeyed the financial industry’s age-old wisdom to divide investments across markets and geographies are on an epic losing streak versus those who simply bought the S&P 500 and sat still. In one example, out of roughly 370 asset-allocation funds tracked by Morningstar Inc., just one has managed to beat the index since 2009.

                  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-bear-market-diversification-haunts-113037594.html


                  6. Construction of New U.S. Homes Fell 5.5% in May to Lowest Level in 4 Years.

                  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST


                  7. Solar High Use Hours…. Solar punches in and punches out-Moses Sternstein

                  One of the many challenges of relying on “renewable” energy sources is that they are unreliable. Solar energy does not work at night, and wind energy does not work if there is no wind.

                  It’s intuitively obvious, but I found a visualization that really drives the point home.

                  Take a look at California’s fuel mix, over a 24 hour period:

                  Gridstatus

                  Solar energy powers 70% of CA’s consumption at its peak . . . and 0% at its nadirs.

                  On the one hand, this is a very impressive accomplishment. That’s a lot of solar energy doing work. CA is basically incapable of building anything, so the fact that they got this much solar online is no small feat.

                  On the other hand, you can see why skeptics think that LNG in the near-term (and maybe nuclear in the longer-term) will have to be part of the picture. Solar energy is entirely useless between the hours of 8pm and 6am. For 14 hours per day though, solar is a beast.

                  Again, that doesn’t mean that battery storage won’t improve, or that we won’t develop clever ways of optimizing for solar when it’s available. There are many companies focused on various iterations of both of these solutions.

                  But it sure seems like solar has a long way to go before it becomes the thing.

                  https://substack.com/@therealrandomwalk


                  8. Record Number of Elections 2024

                  Jack Ablin Cresset

                  https://cressetcapital.com/about/team/jack-ablin/


                  9. 7’9 Inch BBall Player Coming to Florida


                  10. A cardiologist shares one simple change you can make to your diet to protect your heart health-Business Insider

                  Gabby Landsverk 

                  Jun 19, 2024, 8:11 AM EDTSugary beverages can add about 500 calories a day to your diet, increasing your risk of heart-health issues. Start by cutting back on sodas, sweetened coffees, and alcohol. Oleh_Slobodeniuk/Getty Images

                  • A cardiologist said the biggest heart-health mistake is waiting too long to make healthy changes.
                  • Diet and exercise play a big role in preventing heart disease, heart attacks, and strokes later on.
                  • A simple way to make your diet more heart-healthy is to switch up your drinks first. 

                  If you want to live a long life, the best time to pay attention to your heart health is right now, according to a doctor.

                  The biggest mistake people make about heart health is waiting until it’s too late to take action, Dr. Gregory Katz, a cardiologist at NYU Langone, said.

                  “People think it’s something that happens suddenly. Sometimes they look up and are like, ‘How the hell did I have a heart attack or stroke?’ The seeds are planted very early on,” Katz told Business Insider.

                  Your habits today, such as eating well and exercising, can make a big difference in protecting your heart and preventing heart disease, heart attacks, and strokes later in life, he said.

                  While medication can help, patients sometimes put off taking drugs that could help them manage their risk in favor of trying to change their habits first.

                  “Taking medication is not a moral failing. That’s an important message,” Katz said.

                  The trick is focusing on changes you can actually stick to, he added.

                  “People are not honest with themselves about what lifestyle changes they’re actually going to make,” Katz said. “A large percentage of patients tell themselves they’ll make changes, and suddenly five years later, their cholesterol is still high.”

                  To make heart-healthy habits stick, focus on making small, sustainable changes — one of the simplest is reducing your sugar intake from drinks, Katz said.

                  Cutting liquid calories can be transformative

                  High cholesterol and other heart-health risks are linked to diets high in processed food, added sugar, red meat, and saturated fat, which are common for the average American.

                  In contrast, diets for better heart health involve eating lots of veggies, whole grains, legumes, and unsaturated fats such as olive oil, which help lower your cholesterol.

                  But it can be tough to transform your diet overnight, and making too many changes at once can backfire

                  One of the simplest ways to make your diet more heart-healthy is to cut back on sweetened drinks or boozy beverages, Katz said.

                  “Drinking calories and drinking alcohol are the biggest modifiable risk factors. The number of people I see drinking 500 calories a day blows my mind,” he said. “Just because it’s simple doesn’t make it easy.”

                  Evidence suggests that sodas, juices, sugary coffees, and cocktails can all contribute to health risks such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and cancer.

                  A dietitian previously told BI a good strategy to cut back on sweet drinks is to replace them with alternatives such as:

                  • seltzer with a splash of fruit juice
                  • unsweetened tea
                  • water flavored with citrus or herbs such as mint

                  Swapping out liquid calories is a good first step to improving key factors for better heart health (and a longer life), such as healthy blood pressure and cholesterol levels and stable blood sugar.

                  https://www.businessinsider.com/cardiologist-shares-easy-way-avoid-biggest-calorie-heart-health-mistake-2024-6

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 20 2024

                  1. NVDA Stats….Market Cap Passing Germany, France and UK

                  Jim Reid Deutsche Bank
                  Some other remarkable stats:

                  • Nvidia went from $2tn market cap to $3tn in 30 trading days from April 24th.
                  • Nvidia has added a trillion dollars of market cap since May 20th. At 23 trading days this is the quickest a company has ever added a trillion dollars.
                  • For context, Berkshire Hathaway, one of the most respected companies in the world, has taken around 135 years since its origins in the 1880 to get from zero to around $900bn today.
                  • Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft are now worth a combined $9.95tn and look set to cross $10tn for the first time any day.
                  • The last time the entire S&P 500 had a market cap of $10tn was in September 2010.
                  • At the lows in 2009, the entire market cap of the S&P 500 was $6.11tn, less than double Nvidia today.
                  • As it stands, Nvidia is on track to be the top-performing member of the S&P 500 for a second year running. In 2023, it was up +239%, ahead of Meta which had a +194% gain. In 2024 so far, Nvidia is up another +174%, far outpacing Constellation Energy in second place, which is “only” up 89%.
                  • Exactly a decade ago the entire listed UK stock market was 400 times larger than Nvidia. In the last week Nvidia overtook it.

                  2. Technical Record? New Highs in Nasdaq with More Stocks Making 52-Week Lows


                  3. Only 1% of Small Cap Stocks at 52-Week Highs


                  4. Mortgage Rates Drop Below 7%


                  5. Robinhood 24 Hour Market….$20B in Overnight Trading

                  Found at Irrelevant Investor Blog
                  https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/animal-spirits-fed-needs-cut


                  6. HOOD Stock Chart $8 December 2023…to $22


                  7. Gen Z Comfortable with “substantially more financial risk”

                  Barrons By Paul Andrews  
                  However a recent survey conducted by CFA Institute found a very different mindset among Gen Z investors. Those attitudes were forged in the fire of the Covid lockdowns from 2020 to 2022. Today they are shooting through our financial system, creating pressures that could cause problems down the road.

                  Our survey found that Gen Z is comfortable taking substantially more financial risk than previous generations were. In fact, they believe it’s necessary, with fully half of them saying they were comfortable taking significant financial risks to achieve their wealth goals. They told us they thought taking those risks was necessary because they believe the economic conditions they face were more challenging than any time in history.

                  That doesn’t strike my boomer ear as historically correct, but the reality almost doesn’t matter. It’s their perception, and it’s shaping their behavior.

                  Gen Z also has a surprising degree of confidence in its financial knowledge. Almost half said they knew more about investments than their parents, and about a third said they were very or extremely confident in their ability to make financial decisions.

                  But at the time of the survey, Gen Z’s No. 1 investment product was crypto. You’d think perhaps the remarkable risk inherent in that asset class, combined with the significant valuation beating it took, would have dented the Gen Z financial mindset. But with crypto’s remarkable rebound, apparently little has changed.
                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/gen-z-investors-risk-advisors-26fe6c1e?mod=past_editions

                  https://www.empower.com/the-currency/money/what-are-gen-zers-attitudes-toward-money


                  8. India and Mexico Elections

                  Post Elections….India (INDA) makes new highs vs. Mexico (EWW) -17%….EWW holding 2023 lows right now.


                  9. China to Regulate Lithium Battery Industry

                  China to regulate lithium-ion battery industry amid fast expansion
                  By Reuters

                  HONG KONG/BEIJING, June 19 (Reuters) – China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Wednesday issued new guidelines for its lithium-ion battery industry, aiming to transform, upgrade and promote high-quality development amid rapid expansion in the sector.The guidelines, following a proposal in May, will help firms scale back manufacturing projects that only expand production capacity, while enhancing technology innovation and product quality and trimming output costs, the ministry said.
                  Advertisement · Scroll to continue
                  Projects built on farmland and ecological zones would be required to be shut down, or strictly reined in and gradually removed.
                  Rapid expansion of production capacity along the lithium battery supply chain has led to a plunge in prices for products, including battery and raw materials, eroding companies’ profits in the world’s biggest market.
                  Industry planning and launch of new projects should be in line with national development of resources, ecological protection and energy saving management, the ministry said.
                  Advertisement · Scroll to continue
                  Reporting by Farah Master, Ella Cao and Siyi Liu; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Bernadette Baum
                   
                  https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-regulate-lithium-ion-battery-industry-amid-fast-expansion-2024-06-19/

                  Lithium ETF (LIT) close to breaking new lows.


                  10. Ten Principles of Mental Immune System Care

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 19 2024

                  1. NVDA Insiders Sell $700m in Shares…1/3 After May Earnings

                  Bloomberg

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-18/nvidia-nvda-insiders-cash-in-on-rally-as-share-sales-top-700-million?sref=GGda9y2L


                  2. 2024 Mag 1

                  Barrons – by Allan Sloan

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/mag-seven-nvdia-tesla-microsoft-apple-stocks-18f0dc4c?mod=past_editions


                  3. NVDA vs. MAGS (Mag 7) ETF

                  This chart compares NVDA to Mag 7….straight up in 2024


                  4. S&P Top 5 Market Cap Trillions….Bottom 406 Market Cap Below $100B

                  Ritholtz Wealth Chart


                  5. Top 20 S&P Holdings Returns 2024

                  Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

                  https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


                  6. Uranium Bull

                  Uranium vs. Lithium Chart…..LIT Lithium ETF about to make new lows.


                  7. Millionaires Fleeing China and….UK???

                  By Devon Pendleton-(Bloomberg)
                  —
                   The UK is on track to lose 9,500 millionaires this year, more than any country in the world except China, according to a new report on the migration intentions of the world’s wealthy.
                  It’s more than double the number that left the country in
                  2023 and lags only China, which is expected to lose 15,200 millionaires this year, according to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, authored by migration advisory Henley & Partners.
                  “As the world grapples with a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and social upheaval, millionaires are voting with their feet in record numbers,”
                  Dominic Volek, Henley’s group head of private clients, said Tuesday in a statement.
                  Read More: Britain’s Rich Race to Save Their Wealth From Election Hit The report’s numbers refer to net arrivals and exits, reflecting where millionaire populations are growing versus shrinking. Henley’s research partner New World Wealth estimated the migration figures based on relocation data, investment migration program statistics and interviews with intermediaries in the wealth industry.
                  The estimate comes as Britain girds for an election in just over two weeks where the opposition Labour Party, which is advocating for some higher taxes on the wealthy, has about a 20- point lead over the ruling Conservatives.
                  The recent uptick in departures of Britain’s ultra-wealthy residents is the acceleration of a trend that began around the time of Brexit. From 2017 through last year, the country lost
                  16,500 millionaires to migration, according to the report. The exodus is a reversal for the country that for decades served as a magnet for rich families from Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, who mainly flocked to London.
                  More than 7% of the millionaires projected to move globally this year will be leaving the UK, the report shows. That reflects “a steady accumulation of factors” that are making the country less appealing to the rich, including Brexit, the energy crisis from the war in Ukraine and the subsequent rise in inflation, said Hannah White, chief executive officer of the Institute for Government in London.
                  “The outflow of high-net-worth individuals already generated by the economic and political context is now being accelerated by policy decisions ahead of the election,” she wrote in an analysis accompanying the Henley report.

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-18/china-and-uk-set-to-see-the-most-millionaires-leave-survey-says?sref=GGda9y2L


                  8. What Retail Apocalypse? Shopping Centers Are Making a Comeback-NYT

                  By Joe Gose-NY Times 
                  Vacancy is the lowest it has been in two decades, at 5.4 percent, according to a recent report. The properties are thriving even as retailers like Macy’s and Express shutter many stores.
                  Shopping center landlords have found themselves in a wholly unfamiliar position: For the first time in 20 years, demand for retail space outstrips supply.
                  That demand has soared recently and, after years of muted construction and a purge of weak-performing properties, met a retail market with less available space. Properties that survived the purge signed up tenants that would draw more shoppers and give them more reason to linger. That meant more restaurants and venues that promote recreational experiences, like ax throwing and, more recently, pickleball. It also meant less space for traditional retailers that weren’t performing as well, like bookstores and apparel brands.
                  Because of those moves, “there’s not as much redundancy from tenants, and landlords are creating much more robust tenant mixes,” said Barrie Scardina, president of Americas retail services, agency leasing and alliances for Cushman & Wakefield, a real estate firm. “We are seeing some of the most productive occupancy recorded in the last 10 years.”
                  Shopping center vacancy is the lowest it has been in two decades, at 5.4 percent, Cushman & Wakefield said in a recent report, and the edge in lease negotiations has shifted from tenants back to landlords.

                  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/09/business/shopping-centers-mall-demand-comeback.html

                  Colliers-Anjee Solanki

                  https://www.colliers.com/en/research/nrep-us-retail-market-statistics-q1-2024#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20quarter%20of,new%20deliveries%2C%20according%20to%20Colliers.


                  9. Home Prices Stagnate in Florida and Texas as Supply Soars -Redfin

                  Redfin by Lily Katz

                  • The number of homes for sale in Cape Coral, FL and North Port, FL surged roughly 50% from a year earlier in March—more than anywhere else in the country. And in McAllen, TX, supply jumped 25%.
                  • Housing supply is soaring because both states have been building a lot of homes, which is limiting home price growth. Buyer demand is also lackluster because many people are priced out. And in Florida, an insurance crisis is throwing a wrench into deals.
                  • Nationwide, new listings slowed in March as mortgage rates remained elevated. The Fed recently warned rates are likely to stay high longer than expected.

                  On the west coast of Florida, housing supply is surging, sellers are cutting their asking prices and the time it takes to sell a home is soaring—all at a faster rate than anywhere else in the U.S. The story is similar in parts of Texas.
                  Florida and Texas have been building more homes than anywhere else in the country, partly to accommodate the flood of newcomers that showed up during the pandemic homebuying boom. But the boom is over, in part because many people have been priced out. Now, homes are sitting on the market and price growth is stagnating.
                  Here’s how these trends showed up in U.S. housing-market data for March, which covers 85 major metropolitan areas: 

                  • Supply: Of the 10 metro areas that posted the largest year-over-year increases in supply, six are in Florida and two are in Texas. Cape Coral, FL saw the biggest jump in homes for sale (51%), followed by North Port-Sarasota, FL (48%), Fort Lauderdale, FL (30%), Tampa, FL (29%), McAllen, TX (25%), Orlando, FL (23%), Knoxville, TN (23%), Dallas (20%), West Palm Beach, FL (20%) and Cincinnati (17%).
                  • Price drops: Of the 10 metro areas where sellers were most likely to cut their list prices, five are in Florida and two are in Texas. In North Port-Sarasota, 48% of listings had a price cut—the highest share in the country. Next came Tampa (44%), Indianapolis (43%), Cape Coral (41%), Denver (37%), Orlando (35%), Portland, OR (34%), Houston (33%), San Antonio (33%) and Jacksonville, FL (33%).
                  • Prices: Median sale prices fell from a year earlier in three metros, one of which is in Florida and one of which is in Texas: North Port-Sarasota (-4.6%), Oklahoma City (-1.5%) and San Antonio (-0.3%). Prices climbed least in Austin, TX (0%), El Paso, TX (0.5%), Memphis, TN (0.7%), Tampa (1.1%), Salt Lake City (1.1%), Omaha, NE (1.2%) and Charleston, SC (1.2%).
                  • Speed of sales: Of the 10 metros that saw the biggest upticks in median days on market, two are in Florida and two are in Texas: In Cape Coral, the typical home took 31 more days to sell than a year earlier—the largest jump in the nation. Next came North Port-Sarasota (20), McAllen (20), New Orleans (18), Tulsa, OK (13), Cincinnati (13), San Antonio (10), Greensboro, NC (8), Honolulu (7) and Knoxville (7).

                  “Out-of-town homebuyers no longer see Florida as a place to get amazing value. Now they’re moving to North Carolina or Tennessee to get a good deal. Many local blue-collar workers have been priced out of homeownership, too,” said Eric Auciello, a local Redfin sales manager. “Two years ago, the North Port metro was one of the most competitive housing markets in the country because it was affordable for remote workers and there was a shortage of homes for sale, but none of those things are true today. Sarasota, in particular, has been overvalued for decades, and the chickens have finally come to roost. The Tampa metro has been faring a bit better.”

                  https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-march-2024/


                  10. The intentional stance -Seth’s Blog

                  Dan Dennett explained that it began as a survival mechanism. It’s important to predict how someone else is going to behave. That tiger might be a threat, that person from the next village might have something to offer.

                  If we simply wait and see, we might encounter an unwelcome or even fatal surprise. The shortcut that the intentional stance offers us is, “if I were them, I might have this in mind.” Assuming intent doesn’t always work, but it works often enough that all humans embrace it.

                  There’s the physical stance (a rock headed toward a window is probably going to break it) and the design stance (this ATM is supposed to dispense money, let’s look for the slot.) But the most useful and now problematic shortcut is imagining that others are imagining.

                  There used to be a chicken in an arcade in New York that played tic tac toe. The best way to engage with the chicken game was to imagine that the chicken had goals and strategies and that he was ‘hoping’ you would go there, not there.

                  Of course, chickens don’t do any hoping, any more than chess computers are trying to get you to fall into a trap when they set up an en passant. But we take the stance because it’s useful. It’s not an accurate portrayal of the state of the physical entity, but it might be a useful way to make predictions.

                  There’s a certain sort of empathy here, extending ourselves to another entity and imagining that it has intent. But there’s also a lack of empathy, because we assume that the entity is just like us… but also a chicken.

                  The challenge kicks in when our predictions of agency and intent don’t match up with what happens next.

                  AI certainly seems like it has earned both a design and an intentional stance from us. Even AI researchers treat their interactions with a working LLM as if they’re talking to a real person, perhaps a little unevenly balanced, but a person nonetheless.

                  The intentional stance brings rights and responsibilities, though. We don’t treat infants as though they want something the way we might, which makes it easier to live with their crying. Successful dog trainers don’t imagine that dogs are humans with four legs–they boil down behavior to inputs and outputs, and use operant conditioning, not reasoning, to change behavior.

                  Every day, millions of people are joining the early adopters who are giving AI systems the benefit of the doubt, a stance of intent and agency. But it’s an illusion, and the AI isn’t ready for rights and can’t take responsibility.

                  The collision between what we believe and what will happen is going to be significant, and we’re not even sure how to talk about it.

                  The intentional stance is often useful, but it’s not always accurate. When it stops being useful, we need to use a different model for how to understand and what to expect.

                  JUNE 17, 2024
                  https://seths.blog/2024/06/spam-3-0/

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 18 2024

                  1. QQQ Chart

                  RSI short-term overbought.


                  2. IHistory of Buying the Largest Stock

                  Marketwatch By Mark Hulbert
                  This is illustrated in the accompanying chart, which plots the performance of a hypothetical strategy that each year invested in the U.S. stock with the largest market cap at the end of the prior year. Notice that the strategy significantly lags the S&P 500 SPX.

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/8-stocks-other-than-microsoft-apple-and-nvidia-that-could-be-worth-4-trillion-in-three-years-3f45110b?&mod=home-page


                  3. Stock Buyback Update


                  4. Buyback ETF PKW Trailing YTD…+4%


                  5. China Housing Market Not Improving

                   

                  https://dailyshotbrief.com/


                  6. France Election Sell-Off was Coming Off +20% Spike

                  Rate-Cut Mania’s 20.7% Spike in French Stock Market Comes Home to Roost


                  7. E-Bikes Growth

                  https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/e-bikes-market-report


                  8. Defense Expenditures Per NATO Country

                  Invesco

                  US Presidential Election 2024 (invesco.com)


                  9. Half of the World’s Uranium Comes from Two Countries

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-06-12/uranium-price-surge-helps-deadly-metal-dominate-commodity-market?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcxODI5Mzg4NiwiZXhwIjoxNzE4ODk4Njg2LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTRVpKT0tUMEcxS1cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIxRDMwNURBMDVBNjE0QkE5Qjk1OEZDRkE5OEQ3Qjc3OCJ9.uYb8xBocSIBi752xP4MhWb02OGYGxzILrLu6a5Gqrws&sref=GGda9y2L


                  10. Surgeon General: Social media needs cig-like warning

                  MorningBrew

                  The top health official in the US is urging Congress to pass legislation that would stamp social media apps with a surgeon general’s warning “stating that social media is associated with significant mental health harms for adolescents,” he wrote in an op-ed for the New York Times yesterday.
                  Upping the pressure: Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy’s push for a warning label follows years of alarm-sounding with his strongest appeal to lawmakers yet.

                  • In his statement, Murthy referenced a 2019 study that found risks of depression doubled among teens who scroll for more than three hours per day, and a 2023 Gallup poll showing that US teens log a daily average of 4.8 hours on social media.
                  • “Why is it that we have failed to respond to the harms of social media when they are no less urgent or widespread than those posed by unsafe cars, planes or food?” Murthy wrote, alluding to driverless car permits getting rescinded, Boeing groundings and listeria-related dairy recalls this year.

                  Adding a warning label is likely to make some parents think twice about unsupervised scrolling, according to a recent Brookings study. Still, Murthy acknowledged that it wouldn’t be enough to make social media a kid-friendly space. So, he also asked Congress to pass measures that would:

                  • Protect minors from online abuse and exposure to inappropriate content, bar social media platforms from gathering sensitive data from child users, and set limits on features including push notifications, autoplay, and infinite scrolling.
                  • Require social media companies to be publicly transparent about their platform’s mental health effects and undergo independent safety audits.

                  Some states are already grinding. Laws enacted in Florida and Utah since March 2023 have raised the minimum age for social media account ownership. A recently passed New York bill that would ban companies from sharing children’s data and using algorithms in their feeds is awaiting the governor’s signature. More than 40 states have also sued Meta, alleging that it intentionally tries to get kids addicted to its platforms.—ML

                  https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 17 2024

                  1. 10-Year Rate Drops 4.4% to 4.2%

                  More important on chart…Ten-Year yield makes two lower highs


                  2. Inflation 43% of CPI Basket Trending Down -Tom Lee

                  https://fundstrat.com


                  3. The Biggest Component of CPI has Moved Down for 14 Straight Months


                  4. Tech-Six Largest Stocks vs. Rest of S&P

                  www.chartr.com


                  5. S&P Cap Weight vs. Equal Weight Premium History

                  Market Ear Blog

                  https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


                  6. It is not just the S&P Equal Weight….Nasdaq Equal Weigh ETF QQQE +5.7% YTD


                  7. Speaking of Equal Weight…Transports Index Bad Chart

                  Dow Transports 50day thru 200day to downside….Lower Highs.


                  8. The US installed more solar in Q1 2024 than it did in all of 2018

                  Michelle Lewis-Electrek Blog  In Q1 2024, the US saw the largest quarter of solar manufacturing growth in its history, bringing its total installed capacity to 200 GW.
                  A record-setting 11.8 gigawatts (GW) of new solar panel manufacturing capacity came online in the US during Q1 2024, making up 75% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the US grid in that period.
                  According to the US Solar Market Insight Q2 2024 report released today by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, total US solar panel manufacturing capacity increased to 26.6 GW in Q1 2024 compared to 15.6 GW in Q4 2023. Once this capacity fully ramps up, it will be enough to supply about 70% of US demand.
                  The report also contains new data showing that the US added over 40 GW of new solar capacity in 2023 – more than initially reported. Wood Mackenzie now projects that the US solar industry will install another 40 GW in 2024. https://electrek.co/2024/06/05/us-solar-q1-2024/

                  https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/a-decade-of-us-solar-growth-2024


                  9. Solar ETF TAN Still Sideways -50% from Highs


                  10. Violent Crime Dropping in Major Cities -Axios

                  https://www.axios.com/2024/04/16/homicide-rate-us-voters-trump

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 14 2024

                  1. Short-Interest at Record Lows.


                  2. Short Selling in Danger of Extinction?

                  Short Sellers in Danger of Extinction After Crushing Stock Gains

                  The business of betting on stock declines is shrinking as bearish investors face threats on all sides.

                  By Denitsa Tsekova and Carmen Reinicke

                  Jim Chanos quit after failing to raise capital. Carson Block’s firm launched its first long-only fund. Andrew Left dubbed his kind “a dying breed.”

                  These are bad times to be a bear on Wall Street.

                  After taking hits on multiple fronts, short sellers — who borrow and then sell stocks in a bid to profit from price declines — are in retreat. Thank the gravity-defying bull market, lingering regulatory threats, a day-trading horde randomly squeezing shares like GameStop Corp. ever higher, and more.

                  Short interest in a typical member of the S&P 500 is hovering around the lowest levels in more than two decades, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Assets in funds with a short bias have slumped to $4.6 billion from $7.8 billion in 2008, HFR data show, during a period when equity hedge funds overall nearly tripled in size. Activist campaigns like those pursued by Block and Left — where investors seek company flaws and bet against them before making their findings public — launched at the slowest pace in a decade in 2022, with only a tiny uptick last year.

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-03/jim-chanos-leads-short-seller-retreat-after-markets-surge?sref=GGda9y2L


                  3. Best Performance to Start Election Year.

                  @Charlie Bilello


                  4. Global Stock Flows are Second Largest on Record.

                  Market Ear Blog https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


                  5. P/E Ratios of S&P by Market Cap.

                  Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist Apollo Looking at P/E ratios for companies in the S&P500 ranked by market cap shows that large-cap companies are much more expensive than small-cap companies, see chart below.

                  Why are P/E ratios low for small-cap companies and high for large-cap companies?  Because Fed hikes and higher costs of capital are weighing on highly leveraged small-cap companies with low coverage ratios.

                  And the AI story has boosted valuations of mega-cap names.  With the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer and the AI narrative pushing valuations and index concentration to extreme levels, the downside risks to equities are growing.


                  6. S&P Value ETF Fails to Make New Highs …Rolling Over.


                  7. Ethereum ETF by End of Summer.


                  8. Inflation-Auto Insurance Cost Ticks Down.

                  Dave Lutz Jones Trading After 3 straight years of rising prices, auto insurance is finally getting cheaper –Last month was the first decline for CPI motor vehicle insurance since 2021 (!)


                  9. Home Mortgages 2024 vs. 1982

                  Found at Irrelevant Investor Blog

                  https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/animal-spirits-addicted-trading


                  10. Wealth and Money Are Two Different Things- Darius Foroux

                  I wanted to be rich so badly for my entire life. And I always looked at wealth and money to be the same thing. Make a lot of money, get rich, and you’ll be wealthy! Simple, right?

                  In high school, I watched the film, Wall Street starring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen. It was supposed to be a cautionary tale about greed and insider trading in the stock market. But I saw the movie as an inspiration.

                  I wanted to be Gordon Gecko (played by Douglas), the crazy, high-risk Wall Street trader. When I was 17, I got a job at a call center during the summer. My routine looked like this:

                  • I’d get on the phone every day, working double shifts.
                  • I would sell mobile phone subscriptions to people, mostly the elderly.
                  • It was a shameful job. But I was making money. So I’d keep doing it: making one sale after another.

                  This is how badly I wanted to get rich. But I was a teenage idiot. I didn’t know the difference between wealth and money.

                  Now, 20 years later, I finally understand that being rich and having a lot of money is not the same as being wealthy.

                  You can be wealthy and not rich

                  You can also be rich and not wealthy.

                  It takes most people a lifetime to understand that material wealth, which is acquired with money, is not the most important thing.

                  Genuine wealth means freedom.

                  Think about those people who have a lot of money but they can’t do the things they truly want. I wouldn’t call them wealthy. They are rich and have lots of money. But they’re not free.

                  When you have freedom, you have wealth. When you’re rich but you have no freedom, you’re caged.

                  The ancient Stoics understood this 2000 years ago. They are famous for living stringent and hard lives. Seneca said it well:

                  “I do not regard a man poor, if the little which remains is enough for him.”

                  People talk about Stoicism like it’s a philosophy for dealing with obstacles. No. Stoicism is a way of life. One that promotes freedom over everything.

                  Buying stuff doesn’t make you happy

                  I can’t believe 20 years have gone by since I had my first job when I finally made my first paycheck.

                  For the next decade, I did what everyone else did. I chased that paycheck. I wanted to acquire more money.

                  Then, in 2015, I realized it wasn’t the way to go. I started to write and focus on solving problems. I stopped focusing on money, but I started making more money than before.

                  That helped me to become financially free. But I experienced what every person who is doing well financially experiences: Living an unsatisfied life even with money. That’s because I was too focused on buying things.

                  Buying things will not make you happy. Everyone knows this. And yet, everyone needs to figure it out on their own. That’s when you start differentiating wealth from money.

                  What is life? A collection of your memories

                  At some point, we all realize that life is just a collection of our memories. You look back, and you don’t think, “Buying that new car really changed my life.”

                  No, you think:

                  “Remember when we all had to sleep in that one hotel room because we had no choice? We were so angry but we had a good time.”

                  That was me in 2014. My family came to London to help me move to a new apartment. At the time, I was living with a roommate and wanted to get my own place.

                  My parents and brother came from The Netherlands to help me. But the new apartment that I rented fell through, and we had to get a place to stay. I was soooo angry and discouraged.

                  We ended up sleeping in the hotel room that my parents had booked. Everything was fully booked in that hotel and I had no energy to find another place because it was late when I found out.

                  Don’t ask me how we did it, and it was really uncomfortable, but we still talk about that moment. It’s a memory baked into our minds.

                  We all have memories like that.

                  Think about your memories. Do they revolve around wealth and money?

                  I bet you $100 it doesn’t.

                  You probably think about the experiences you had with your family, friends, partner, or on your own.

                  That’s what life is about.

                  And if you can make enough money to have experiences, you have wealth.

                  Enjoy your life! And try not to be so obsessed with money.

                  Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 13 2024

                  1. Bond Index AGG is in 4 Year Drawdown…Was Yesterday Turnaround?

                  Nasdaq Dorsey Wright As of Thursday (6/6), AGG is roughly 19% below its all-time high reached in August 2020. Even if we use total return data (AGG.TR), including coupon reinvestment, the fund is still about 10% below its all-time highs.

                  What is more punchline worthy is that, as of yesterday, AGG has been in a drawdown for 1000 trading days…that’s nearly four years in real time.


                  2. SHY Short-Term Treasury Bond ETF.

                  50week thru 200week on long-term chart


                  3.U.S. Retail Gas Fails to Below 2023 Highs..Downward Trend.

                  https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price


                  4. What Happens to Names Added to S&P?  CRWD, GDDY, and KKR Added.

                  Nasdaq Dorsey Wright by Will Gibson

                  The S&P 500 (SPX) will rebalance at the end of this month. Notable additions to the index include CrowdStrike (CRWD), GoDaddy (GDDY), and KKR (KKR).

                  Theoretically, a stock’s inclusion in an index should have no impact on its performance. However, being added to a major benchmark like the S&P 500 can increase demand for a stock. Passive funds that track the index must purchase the new addition(s) and being added to an index can also increase stock awareness, especially among retail investors. Although, the performance trends for new adds have not been what you might expect.

                  In the table below we summarized performance of stocks that were added to the S&P 500 since 2010. We did not include stocks removed from the index due to various nuances with delisting (M&A activity as one example).

                  In the month prior to joining the index the upcoming additions had an average return of 4% which was about 3.5% higher than S&P 500’s average return, yet most of the alpha-generation opportunity seemed to vanish as the index reconstitution date approaches. On average, the new constituents underperformed the index after their inclusion date. S&P Global has a more detailed study that confirms our observations.

                  This performance asymmetry seems counterintuitive, but some hedge funds and sophisticated investors have ways to reasonably predict which companies will join the index even before an announcement is made, essentially setting up an arbitrage/front-running strategy. In other words, by the time information is widely public the market has long priced in the potential effects.

                  That said, all three of the upcoming additions have been high technical attribute stocks on our system since the middle of 2023. So, we would not suggest dumping these names solely based off today’s data because the technical pictures still look constructive for the soon-to-be members.


                  5. Oracle Breakout Similar to Apple Chart from Yesterday.

                  ORCL breaks out of sideways pattern


                  6. $6 Trillion in Money Markets But Household Stock Allocations Still at Highs.

                  Is it time to be max bullish? (rbadvisors.com)


                  7. HIMS Compound Pharmacy $200 a Month Weight Loss Treatment Sends Stock Back to 2020 Highs

                  www.stockcharts.com


                  8. One Commodity has Held Up Versus Tech Heavy S&P for 5 Years…Water.

                  Water ETF PHO +87% 5 Years.


                  9. Bill Gates Backing Small Nuclear Reactor Build Out …Good Nuclear.

                  From Morningbrew Blog

                  ENERGY

                  Bill Gates goes nuclear

                  The guy who helped construct the computer company in a garage-to-billionaire pipeline has put his money where his mouth is. Bill Gates, a proponent of competitive clean energy sources to combat climate change, broke ground on a next-gen nuclear power facility yesterday outside a small Wyoming town.

                  TerraPower, a company Gates co-founded in 2008 to boost private nuclear investment, is building a first-of-its-kind reactor that it thinks will usher in a new era of scalable clean energy.

                  What’s the big deal? TerraPower’s new reactor isn’t like old reactors—it’s smaller, cheaper, and may stand a shot at being finished…unlike new traditional reactors, whose death certificates are usually written before they even start running due to delays and cost overruns. The US has only built two reactors in the last 30 years, costing $35 billion, but TerraPower sees itself as #builtdifferent.

                  • The TerraPower design calls for liquid sodium rather than water to cool the reactor, meaning the power station won’t need extensive (and expensive) heavy piping.
                  • The reactor will also be able to adjust its output, making it easier to coexist with wind and solar sources and take advantage of selling energy to the grid.

                  Digging deep

                  Gates maintains that he’s not involved in the nuclear project to make more money. “I’m involved in TerraPower because we need to build a lot of these reactors,” he said in an interview.

                  The project still has plenty of unknowns, including whether the reactor will actually be cheaper to build (some critics say it won’t) and whether the Nuclear Regulatory Commission will approve its unorthodox engineering plan.

                  You need deep pockets to pull this off…but with some of the deepest pockets propping up the project, there’s a chance it can work. Gates has poured $1 billion into the project so far, raised another $830 million, and said he’s prepared to stand by it financially.—CC

                  Bad Nuclear

                  Russian Nuclear-powered Submarine Arrives In Cuba

                  A Russian nuclear-powered submarine and other naval vessels arrived in Cuba Wednesday for a five-day visit to the communist island off Florida’s coast in a show of force amid spiraling US-Russian tensions.

                  The submarine Kazan, which Cuba says is not carrying nuclear weapons, was accompanied by the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, as well as an oil tanker and a salvage tug.

                  The Kazan and Admiral Gorshkov, which is one of Russia’s most modern warships, could be seen just off Havana, which is about 90 miles (145 km) from the tip of Florida.

                  The tanker Pashin and the tug, flying the white, blue and red tricolor of Russia, entered the harbor early Wednesday morning, an AFP reporter said.

                  The Cuban government announced that Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez was meeting his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Wednesday, as the two former Cold War allies further tighten their links.

                  The unusual deployment of the Russian military so close to the United States — particularly the powerful submarine — comes amid major tensions over the war in Ukraine, where the Western-backed government is fighting a Russian invasion.

                  Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel met with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin last month for the annual May 9 military parade on Red Square outside the Kremlin.

                  During the Cold War, Cuba was an important client state for the Soviet Union. The deployment of Soviet nuclear missile sites on the island triggered the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, when Washington and Moscow came close to war.

                  Relations between Russia and Cuba have become closer since a 2022 meeting between Diaz-Canel and Putin.

                  https://www.barrons.com/news/russian-nuclear-powered-submarine-arrives-in-cuba-35f38414


                  10. Deaths Per Year Back to Pre-Covid Levels.

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 11 2024

                  1. Capex Boom U.S. and Japan

                  https://www.topdowncharts.com


                  2. End of Day Rallies…Institutional Buying?

                  Fundstrat Tom Lee

                  https://fundstrat.com


                  3. Apple’s “Golden” Moment

                  Bespoke Investment Group
                  For over a year now, shares of Apple (AAPL) have been stuck between the low $160s and the high $190s as the market impatiently waits for the company to outline its AI strategy.  In just the last seven weeks, though, the stock has tested both ends of the range, and ahead of today’s Worldwide Developers Conference, shares of AAPL are modestly pulling back from the top end of the range. In case you missed it, in last week’s Bespoke Report, we discussed the stock’s performance leading up to, during, and after prior conferences including its performance when it rallied in the weeks leading up to the conference. If you missed that on Friday, make sure to check it out.

                  As the stock has rallied from its lows in the last several weeks, AAPL is on the verge of completing a golden cross formation, which technical analysts consider a bullish pattern. A golden cross occurs when a stock’s shorter-term moving average (in this the 50-DMA) crosses up through a longer-term moving average (in this case the 200-DMA) as both are rising.  Conversely, the opposite of a golden cross is an iron cross which occurs when the short-term moving average crosses down through a longer-term moving average as both are falling.

                  As recently as May 1st, AAPL’s 50-DMA was more than 5% below its 200-DMA, but that spread has narrowed quickly in the last six weeks to less than 1% today. The gap is also continuing to narrow fast, and barring an absolute plunge in the stock, it’s likely that the 50-DMA will cross up through the 200-DMA within a week or so.

                  While golden crosses are a positive technical formation in theory, they don’t necessarily play out that way in practice.  The table below summarizes the performance of AAPL after each prior golden cross and iron cross in the post-iPod era (since 2001).

                  After the four golden crosses, AAPL traded down over the next week three out of four times, and one and three months later, it was only up half the time. Six and twelve months later, AAPL’s stock was higher three out of four times with the lone exception being its performance after the golden cross in May 2008 just ahead of the financial crisis.

                  In the post-iPod era, AAPL has experienced five iron crosses with the most recent being in March 2024.  Performance following these prior occurrences was similarly weak over the short term, but six and twelve months later, median returns were stronger than after golden crosses.

                  What stands out concerning performance following both golden and iron crosses, though, is the fact that the median returns for both golden and iron crosses are weaker than the average for all periods.

                  https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/apples-golden-moment


                  4. Unemployment Moved Above 4%…History of S&P Returns

                  https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


                  5. Tesla Has Gone 648 Days Since making All-Time High


                  6. So Much for Inflation at Restaurants

                  Axios

                  Restaurants are having their biggest year ever (axios.com)


                  7. Used Car Prices Down but Still Above 2020

                  Wolf Street Blog  
                  Vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) also went through a crazy price spike during the pandemic, up by 64% in May 2022, a huge historic ridiculous price spike that was nevertheless dwarfed by what EVs went through. The Manheim index for ICE vehicles is up 34% from January 2020 (red):

                  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/10/used-car-wholesale-prices-continue-plunge-gave-up-59-of-pandemic-spike-but-still-up-35-from-jan-2020-evs-still-72-ice-vehicles-34


                  8. Work from Home by Age Groups

                  https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-xers-boomers-return-to-office-remote-work-hybrid-wfh-2024-6


                  9. Where are U.S. Military Troops Located?

                  USA FACTS

                  https://usafacts.org/articles/where-are-us-military-members-stationed-and-why


                  10. How to Handle Difficult People Like a Stoic

                  PSYCHOLOGY TODAY Follow these three principles to guard your equanimity.- Seth J. Gillihan PhD
                   
                  KEY POINTS

                  • The philosophy of Stoicism offers greater flexibility in how you respond to challenging people.
                  • It teaches that your interpretations, rather than events themselves, are the true source of upset feelings.
                  • Peace of mind comes from redirecting your energy to the things you can actually control.

                  On a recent road trip with my wife and kids, I found myself being tailgated by an apparently angry and impatient driver. I was going a few miles per hour over the speed limit as I passed a semi on a long downhill stretch through the mountains; when I pulled into the right lane, the driver accelerated past me, blowing his horn for about 10 seconds.
                  I felt my sympathetic nervous system turn on, and resisted the urge to give him the finger or to passive-aggressively honk a “friendly” beep-beep in return. For several minutes afterward, I was silently seething. It felt like he had gotten away with something, as if I had lost and he had won. Each time I replayed the prolonged honk I felt angry and humiliated. Part of me really wanted to chase down his car and pay him back somehow, but I knew nothing good would come of it.
                  You no doubt have had similar encounters with obnoxious or pushy people, whether on the road or elsewhere. These episodes are a perfect opportunity to practice the principles of Stoicism.

                  1. Judgments, Not Events, Disturb People
                  As I ruminated on what had happened, I had to wonder: What had that pushy driver actually done to me? The idea that he had “humiliated” me or “won” was based on multiple layers of interpretation. The facts were much simpler:

                  • A driver wanted his car to go faster than mine was going.
                  • He drove close to my bumper when my car was blocking his way, apparently angry and annoyed.
                  • As his car passed mine, he pressed on his horn for several seconds before speeding away.

                  The powerlessness and sense of victimhood that I felt were not part of the events themselves. Nothing says that honking without retribution equals “winning.”
                  article continues after advertisement
                  As the Stoic philosopher Epictetus wrote in Enchiridion nearly two millennia ago, “It is not events that disturb people, it is their judgments concerning them.”
                  A few pages later he adds: “Another person will not hurt you without your cooperation; you are hurt the moment you believe yourself to be.”
                  It wasn’t the driver’s actions that upset me, it was the meaning I gave to them. When someone does something that offends you, ask yourself what is fact and what is interpretation.

                  2. Don’t Give Your Peace of Mind to Others
                  The judgments you make drive your emotional reactions. If you want to “win” against others, guard your equanimity. The only way I would lose to that honking driver was by losing my peace of mind.
                  Why give difficult people power over how you feel and what you do? Your emotional equilibrium is not to be entrusted to the actions of others. You can let people be rude or unreasonable, without acting as if your only recourse is to get upset and respond in kind.
                  Remind yourself that no one else is responsible for your emotions. “So when we are frustrated, angry, or unhappy,” wrote Epictetus, “never hold anyone except ourselves—that is, our judgments—accountable.” When you do, you’ll discover true freedom in how you choose to respond.

                  3. Focus on What You Can Control
                  The Stoics recognized that peace of mind is found by focusing on what you actually are responsible for. Epictetus advised asking yourself, “‘Is this something that is, or is not, in my control?’ And if it’s not one of the things that you control, be ready with the reaction, ‘Then it’s none of my concern.'”

                  https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/think-act-be/202404/how-to-handle-difficult-people-like-a-stoic

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 10 2024

                  1. A Few Charts on Market Concentration

                  The Top 10 stocks in the S&P500 now make up a record-high 35% of the index, see chart below.-Torsten Slok Apollo


                  2. Percentage of Stocks Outperforming Index

                  RBA Advisors

                  From Callum Thomas
                  https://www.chartstorm.info


                  3. Europe Mag 7 Outperforming U.S. Mag 7 Since 2022

                  Capital Group

                  https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/2024-midyear-stock-market-outlook.html


                  4. Mega-Caps Led Performance in May

                  www.ndr.com


                  5. NVDA Worth $102M Per Employee

                  Doug Short Advisor Perspectives

                  The records have been coming thick and fast for AI phenomenon Nvidia recently — and on Wednesday it ticked off two more major milestones. The company crossed the $3 trillion market cap mark and simultaneously surpassed Apple to become the second most valuable company in the world.

                  There are a lot of ways to value a company: price-to-earnings multiples, discounted cash flow analysis, or EV-to-EBITDA multiples are all favorites of equity analysts… though each is often more of an art than a science. One really simple fundamental metric is: how much value is being ascribed for every person that it employs? For Nvidia, after this latest run-up took it north of the $3T milestone, the company is being valued at more than $100M for each of its 29,600 employees (per its filing that counted up to the end of Jan 2024).

                  That’s more than 5x any of its big tech peers, and hundreds of times higher than more labor-intensive companies like Walmart and Amazon. It is worth noting that Nvidia has very likely done some hiring since the end of January — the company might just be in growth mode — but even if the HR department has been working non-stop, Nvidia will still be a major outlier on this simple measure.

                  We are running out of ways to describe Nvidia’s recent run… but a nine-figure valuation per employee is a new one.

                  www.chartr.com


                  6. Bill Ackman Pershing Square Going IPO….Pershing Square Holdings in London PSHZF Trades at Sizable Premium to Big Money Managers

                  Barrons
                  One valuation metric is market value relative to assets. Traditional asset managers likeBlackRock are valued at 1% to 3% of assets, while higher-fee alternative managers likeBlackstone, Ares Management, and Blue Owl Capital are valued at 10% to 15% of assets. Pershing Square is valued at nearly 60% of assets.

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/bill-ackman-new-fund-pershing-square-usa-4cb5c2c2?mod=past_editions


                  7. Copper Hit Friday…Closes Below 50-Day


                  8. GOLD Hit Friday….GLD Closes Below 50 Day


                  9. Inflation -Fed Funds Minus Core CPI is in Restrictive Zone

                  Unio Capital

                  https://uniocapital.com


                  10. Russian Demographics Were Bad Before Ukraine War….Now Crisis Mode

                  WSJ
                  In the midst of the economic and social upheaval that followed, growing numbers of Russians died from cardiovascular disease, suicides, traffic accidents and other causes—often related to heavy drinking—and women had fewer babies.

                  By 2003, Russia’s life expectancy had dropped to about 65 years from 69 in 1990, far below many Western countries at the time. A more stable economy, along with policies restricting alcohol purchases and antismoking campaigns, helped push that up to about 70 years in 2022—still below most developed countries, according to United Nations data. The U.S. had a life expectancy of about 78 years. Estonia, a former Soviet republic, had a life expectancy of 79 years. 

                  By Betsy McKay and Georgi Kantchev 
                  https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-russia-population-birthrate-war-904d74a7

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 07 2024

                  1. Semi’s vs.Software-Market Ear Blog

                  https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


                  2. Chips Act Grants By Company

                  https://www.wsj.com/tech/chips-act-funding-semiconductor-investments-us-22cc1ea8?st=hqt5jcabopnl0gc&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink


                  3. Stocks Strongly Linked to Bond Yields vs. History

                  WSJ By James Mackintosh  The link to bond yields is also split, with the average stock more strongly linked to bond yields—rising when they fall, and vice versa—than any time since 1999 over a 100-day period. The gap between this correlation and that of the ordinary S&P, which has a much weaker link to Treasury yields, is unprecedented in data back to 1990.

                  Aside from AI, I think this is best explained by corporate profits and interest rates, and to a lesser extent concern about the economy.

                  The Big Tech stocks that dominate the market sit on huge cash piles, while the biggest companies chose to lock in low interest rates for a long time by refinancing their bonds before the Fed began raising rates in 2022. Smaller companies tend not to have cash piles on which to earn fat savings interest and have more need to issue bonds to raise cash. The smallest don’t even have access to the bond market, one reason the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies has lagged so far behind the S&P this year, eking out a gain of just 1.6%.

                  https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/big-tech-companies-unplug-stock-market-from-reality-ff1d3e0e


                  4. HIMS Stock Post Weight Loss Supplement Announcement

                  HIMS post $200 a month weight loss compound pharmacy replacement


                  5. Starbucks Held 2022 Lows

                  SBUX bounced at 2022 lows.


                  6. Neurotech Growth

                  https://dailyshotbrief.com/


                  7. Vacancy Rates for Commercial Real Estate

                  From Irrelevant Investor Blog

                  https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/


                  8. More N.Y.C. Rentals Are Available. But Can You Afford One?

                  NY Times By Michael Kolomatsky

                  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/30/realestate/nyc-rentals-available-price.html


                  9. Update on Mortgage Payment Cost….But Rates Dip Below 7% This Week

                   

                  Mortgage rates dip below 7%. ‘Expect them to modestly decline over the remainder of 2024,’ Freddie Mac says-Aarthi Swaminathan

                  30-year mortgage rate fell on the back of reports of a slowing U.S. economy

                  Mortgage rates dipped below 7% in the latest week as the U.S. economy showed signs of slowing. 

                  The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.99% as of June 6, according to data released by Freddie Mac FMCC, +4.08% on Thursday. 

                  It’s down 4 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point. 

                  A year ago, the 30-year was averaging at 6.71%.

                  The average rate on the 15-year mortgage was 6.29%, up from 6.36% last week. The 15-year was at 6.07% a year ago.

                  Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates is based on thousands of applications received from lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage. 

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-dip-below-7-expect-them-to-modestly-decline-over-the-remainder-of-2024-freddie-mac-says-bbb44f2f?mod=home-page


                  10. Buying Freedom

                  Jonathan Clements  |  Jun 1, 2024

                  IF 20-SOMETHINGS ASK me for financial advice, I suggest getting a job right out of college and saving like crazy, so they quickly get themselves on the fast track to financial freedom.

                  If 60-somethings ask me for advice, I advocate a phased retirement, seeking part-time work in their initial retirement years and, if they enjoy it, perhaps keeping it up into their 70s.

                  Yeah, I know, I sound like a real killjoy. My advice raises an obvious question: Is there ever a time when we should cut ourselves some slack and not have a job?

                  Let me start with this: If you have a burning passion—perhaps to establish yourself as an artist in your 20s or to commit yourself to religious study in your 60s—you already know what you need for a fulfilling life. Everybody else’s opinion, including mine, is of little import.

                  But what if you don’t have a calling? It’s worth keeping five key ideas in mind:

                  First, in crass economic terms, adult life is about using our human capital—our income-earning ability—to amass financial capital, so one day we no longer need to rely on our human capital. This “no longer relying on our human capital” is what non-economists call retirement, and it often takes three or four decades of saving and investing to accumulate enough.

                  Second, beyond paying for retirement and other goals, it’s desirable to amass money because it provides a sense of financial security and it gives us the flexibility to lead our life as we wish. If we sock away a moderate amount of savings early on, we’ll remove one of life’s biggest stressors.

                  Third, most of us aren’t very good at anticipating what our future self will want. Maybe our greatest desire will be to retire early. Perhaps, in our 40s or 50s, we’ll want to swap into a career that’s less lucrative but more fulfilling. Or maybe we’ll be happy to persevere with our current job. It’s hard to know what we’ll want, which is another reason to save diligently starting early in adult life. The larger our nest egg, the more options we’ll have.

                  Fourth, our focus often shifts as we grow older. We become less motivated by the prospect of pay raises and promotions, and more focused on doing what we personally care about. With any luck, once we have a better handle on what we really want, we’ll get the chance to pursue those passions more fully during a second career or once we’re retired.

                  Finally, most of us enjoy striving toward our goals. To be sure, we imagine that the greatest happiness will lie in achieving those goals. But in truth, it’s the striving that offers the great pleasure. This pleasure is captured by the notion of flow, those times when we’re engaged in activities that we’re passionate about, we find challenging, we think are important and we feel we’re good at. At such moments, we can become totally absorbed and lose all sense of time. We should design our life—including our retirement—so we enjoy frequent moments of flow.

                  The five ideas above help explain why we should save early in life to prepare ourselves for later, when we might want to change how we spend our days. But that still leaves one question unanswered: Why, come retirement, should our days necessarily involve working part-time?

                  The short answer is, it isn’t necessary. Unless you don’t have enough saved, there’s no need to work part-time in retirement. But I think it’s an idea that deserves more attention. Today, retiring as early as possible is considered a badge of honor, and continuing to work later in life is viewed as somehow offensive to the whole notion of retirement.

                  But as I’ve argued before, there are all kinds of reasons—financial and otherwise—to continue earning money through our 60s and into our 70s. It can feel good to be a productive member of society, plus retirement can be a whole lot less financially stressful if we still have a little money coming in. What about those savings we earlier amassed? Even if we keep earning money, we’ll likely still find plenty of uses for our savings, including travel, helping family members, supporting our favorite charities and perhaps paying long-term-care costs.

                  I’m not saying that working part-time in retirement is the right choice for everybody. But if there are activities you find fulfilling, and you can make a little money doing so, why not?

                  Jonathan Clements is the founder and editor of HumbleDollar. Follow him on X @ClementsMoney and on Facebook, and check out his earlier articles.

                  Buying Freedom

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 05 2024

                  1. MCHI China IShares Chart

                  MCHI breaks above red downtrend line going back to 2021


                  2. KWEB China Internet ETF

                  50day thru 200day to upside in early May


                  3. Energy Sell Off

                  OIH Oil Service ETF closes below 200-day


                  4. Another Look at Concentration in S&P…Top 3 Companies 20% of Market


                  5. Buffett Indicator

                  Doug Short Advisor Perspectives

                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/04/buffett-valuation-indicator-may-2024


                  6. Criticisms of The Buffett Indicator

                  From Current Market Valuation Blog 
                  No single metric is illustrative of the health or relative valuation entire market. Common criticisms of the Buffett Indicator are:

                  Interest Rates-The Buffett Indicator only considers the value of the stock market, but does not consider how stocks are valued relative to alternative investments, such as bonds.
                  When interest rates are high, bonds pay a high return to investors, which lowers demand (and prices) of stocks.

                  Additionally, higher interest rates means it’s more expensive for businesses to borrow money, making it harder to borrow cash as a way to finance growth. Any business that takes on debt will face relatively higher interest payments, and therefore fewer profits. Less corporate profits means lower corporate stock values. The corollary to this is also true. Low interest rates means bonds pay less to investors, which lowers demand for them, which raises stock prices in relation to bonds. Low interest rates make it easy for corporations to borrow cash to finance growth. Corporate interest payments will be low, making profits higher.

                  This is all to say that all else equal if interest rates are high, stock prices go down. If interest rates are low, stock prices go up.

                  Over the last 50 years the interest rate on 10 Year US Treasury bonds has averaged 5.86%. During the peak of the .com bubble when the Buffett Indicator was very high, the 10Y Treasury rate was a bit higher than average, around 6.5%, showing that low interest rates weren’t juicing the stock market. Today the Buffett Indicator is still quite high relative to its historical trend line, but interest rates are still relatively low, currently at 4.20%.

                  This can be interpreted to mean that during the .com bubble, equity investors had other good options for their money – but they still piled recklessly into stocks. Whereas today, investing in bonds returns relatively little. Today‘s investors need to seek a return from somewhere, and low interest rates are forcing them to seek that return from riskier assets, effectively pumping up the stock market. While this doesn’t justify the high Buffett Indicator on any fundamental basis, it does suggest that the market today is less likely to quickly collapse like it did in 2000, and that it may have reason to stay abnormally high for as long as interest rates are abnormally low.

                  For additional detail on the effect interest rates have on stock prices, view our Interest Rate Model.

                  International Sales
                  A second fair criticism of the Buffett Indicator is that the stock market valuation reflects international activity while GDP does not. Though GDP does include national exports, it would not include something like the sales Amazon makes in India (sourced from Indian fulfillment centers and sellers). However, Amazon’s India business is definitely priced into its overall stock price, which is listed in the USA. Imagine if the Indian government banned Amazon from the country and shut down all its operations/subsidiaries there. This would lower Amazon’s stock price, which would lower overall US stock market value, but have no impact on US GDP. That is, the Buffett Indicator would fall.
                  Globalization has expanded steadily over the last 50 years and has been a key driver in the growth of the Buffett Indicator over time, since US stocks have risen in value due to overseas activities not included in US GDP.

                  This is a very fair criticism of the Buffett Indicator itself — though not necessarily for the valuation model presented here, which looks at the Buffett Indicator relative to it’s own exponentially growing trend line. Our model expects exponential growth of the indicator over time, such that we have a “fair” Buffett Indicator value of 50% in 1960, growing to ~120% in 2020. Part of that natural increase is due to technological advances that lead to higher profits for existing firms, or from the creation of new industries entirely. Another part of that natural increase is because US market value is growing faster than GDP due to the rise of international sales of US-based firms. The key point here is that the model is looking at relative performance against the indicator’s own trend rate, and not just saying “the Buffett Indicator is high”.

                  https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php


                   

                  7. Bitcoin Second Biggest Net Inflow Day Ever

                  BY TYLER DURDEN  ZEROHEDGE 
                  After a period of flat to negative flows, the spot ETFs have added $3.7 billion in assets over the past month, to make the aggregate net inflows since inception almost $15 billion. Yesterday completed the sixteenth straight day of net inflows with a second-best-ever $887 million flood of money into the crypto assets.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/fidelity-dominates-bitcoin-etfs-second-biggest-net-inflow-day-ever-crypto-soars


                  8. Number of Job Openings Normalizing

                  https://www.axios.com/


                  9. Devastation in Ukraine-NYT

                  By Jeffrey Gettleman 

                  Measuring every town, street and building blown apart since the Russian invasion. A map of Ukraine showing damaged areas since the invasion of Russia in 2022 

                  Sources: Analysis by Jamon Van Den Hoek, Corey Scher and The New York Times

                  You’re reading The Morning newsletter.  Make sense of the day’s news and ideas. David Leonhardt and Times journalists guide you through what’s happening — and why it matters.
                  Imagine your hometown being wiped off the map.
                  Imagine a city where no one lives.
                  Imagine the landmarks in your life — where you went to school, where you were married, where you worked and played and loved and prayed — erased.
                  This is what happened to Marinka, a small town in Ukraine’s east with nearly 200 years of history. Photos of it look like those of Hiroshima. Its destruction has become a symbol of Ukraine’s war.
                  A map of Ukraine showing damaged areas since the invasion of Russia in 2022

                  Photo by Finbarr O’Reilly for The New York Times
                  It’s hardly the only Ukrainian town like this. The Times worked with researchers to measure every town, street and building in Ukraine blown apart since the Russians invaded in 2022. In today’s newsletter, we’ll explain how we did it — and what we found.

                  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/04/briefing/ukraine-russia-damage.html


                  10. 5 Ways to Emotionally Recover From a Frustrating Mistake

                  Practical strategies to bounce back and restore your peace of mind. Alice Boyes Ph.D.
                  We all make frustrating mistakes from time to time. Examples:

                  • You drop and crack your phone.
                  • You miss a deadline and have to pay a late fee.
                  • You ding your car.
                  • You lock yourself out of your house.
                  • You forget to take your debit card to a store that only accepts debit cards, so you have to go home to get it, wasting 30 minutes.

                  These errors can be emotionally stinging, especially if you’re already feeling down on yourself or your emotional reserves are low. Here are five tips for recovering after this type of incident.

                  1. Give it an hour or two.
                  Rather than rushing in with strategies to repair your mood, wait an hour or two after the incident to see how much you recover in a small amount of time without doing anything. This will prevent unnecessary work and angst if your emotions substantially repair themselves. You can then deal strategically with whatever remains.

                  2. Do something smart and purposeful, even if it’s unrelated.
                  We can’t always fix a specific mistake, but we can take smart and purposeful action to remind ourselves that we’re not hopelessly inept at adulting. Do something, virtually anything, that makes you feel like you’re doing a good job managing your life.

                  3. Reflect on the pathways that led to the mistake.
                  Pointlessly dwelling on the causes of mistakes is a form of rumination. Don’t do that, but you can try fruitful reflection. For example, perhaps you had several warning signs of the potential for the mistake (e.g., near misses), and you ignored them. Or, perhaps you made other silly mistakes recently due to feeling scattered or overwhelmed. You’re aware that those states lead to being disorganized or making mistakes due to rushing, but you didn’t do anything to prevent that.

                  4. Implement a routine that will disrupt the pathway you identified.
                  If you make silly mistakes when you’re scattered, you probably need a consistent routine to help prevent them. For example, you always check your bag for your debit card before heading to a particular store, and you stick to going to that store on a specific day of the week to make it even more of a strong habit.
                  If you consistently use a habit, not just when you feel scattered, that will help that sequence of behavior carry over to times you’re rushing, etc.

                  5. Engage in “at least it wasn’t something worse” thinking.
                  Forced positive thinking can backfire, but there likely will be a point when it feels beneficial to engage in thoughts like, “At least no one was injured in the accident” or “This was minor in the grand scheme of things.” Most things that go wrong are minor rather than major. Try this thinking style when it feels beneficial to you. If it doesn’t come naturally to you, you can try techniques like describing the situation via ChatGPT and asking what a supportive but realistic friend might say in the situation. This can help you learn compassionate self-talk if it’s not currently in your repertoire.
                  Small mistakes are annoying, especially if they incur wasted time or money, embarrassment, or rumination. Don’t make the pain of an objective consequence (like wasted time or money) worse by loading up optional consequences (like excessive rumination). Instead, use these tips to analyze and react to the mistake in a smart and productive way.

                  https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/in-practice/202406/5-ways-to-emotionally-recover-from-a-frustrating-mistake

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 04 2024

                  1. Penny Stock Volume

                  From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Seven of the top 10 most traded US equities in May, as measured by the number of shares bought and sold, are penny stocks worth less than $1, according to Cboe Global  Markets. None of the companies are profitable.  The huge volumes in so many little-known stocks suggest renewed appetite among  retail investors for cheap names in which they believe they can quickly make a lot of  money, FT reports.
                  “Penny stocks are not the same as the meme stock phenomenon, but let’s say they  rhyme. It’s people willing to put fundamentals aside and chase returns,” said Steve  Sosnick, chief market strategist at retail broker Interactive Brokers.


                  2. Bullish Bets in US Stock Futures at 12-Year Highs

                  I am not familiar with this chart.
                  Barbara Kollmeyer Marketwatch
                  In a separate note, strategists led by Mislav Matejka point out that apart from a “complacent technical picture,” positioning is looking stretched headed into summer. Their below chart shows U.S. equity futures positioning, which has been above average all year, is now the highest in a dozen years:

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-stocks-to-hit-a-wall-this-summer-says-jpmorgan-6808dc58?mod=home-page


                  3. Dell -25% From Highs But Still Up 76% YTD


                  4. Record Number of Global Elections in 2024….Mexico Market and Currency Down -10% Post-Election.

                  EWW -10% One Day

                  Mexican Peso -10% One-Day


                  5. Modi Majority Shrinks in India

                  Huge run India ETF….-6% pre-market


                  6. Small Banks Increasing Commercial Real Estate Exposure

                  Credit: Small banks have been increasing CRE exposure.

                  Source: Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog
                  https://dailyshotbrief.com/


                  7. Poll of Leverage Loan Companies

                  From Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture Blog

                  https://ritholtz.com/2024/06/10-sunday-reads-168


                  8. Construction Spending on Factories

                  By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
                  Companies plowed $18.4 billion in April into the construction of manufacturing plants in the US, a seasonally adjusted annual rate of construction spending of a record $212 billion, according to the Census Bureau today. This was up by 140% to 200% from the range in 2015 through mid-2021,

                  The spike in factory-construction activity began in the second half of 2021. The CHIPS Act, signed into law in August 2022, seems to have turbocharged it, though the money hasn’t even started flowing yet.

                  Beyond semiconductors, a large number and a great variety of manufacturing plants have been announced over the past two years, and we’ll get to some that were announced just in recent weeks. They’re part of what the National Manufacturing Association has termed, “general reshoring.”

                  During the record year of 2023, spending on factory construction spiked by 71% from 2022, and by 138% from 2021, to $196 billion. And 2024 is on track to set a new record as the eyepopping boom continues.
                  This boom is a result of a massive corporate and government rethink after the supply-chain and transportation chaos during the pandemic, the increasingly edgy relationship between the US and China, the fundamentally scary dependence by US companies on production in China, and the nerve-racking dependence on semiconductor production in Taiwan.

                  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/03/eyepopping-factory-construction-boom-in-the-us-semiconductors-auto-industry-and-everyone-else


                  9. America’s Commute to Work Is Getting Longer and Longer

                  Story by Anne Marie Chaker
                  The American worker is making peace with a longer ride.

                  Big shifts in the way people live and work are making commutes of over an hour into the office more common—and even more palatable. Rising housing costs have prompted many to move farther away from city centers, while the staying power of hybrid work means they don’t have to drive into work every day.

                  The share of super commutes—those 75 miles or longer—have grown the most and are up by nearly a third since 2020, according to new research from Stanford University.

                  Craig Allender’s family of four felt they had outgrown their three-bedroom home in Novato, Calif., and wanted to upgrade. They found a five-bedroom one 30 miles north in Sonoma County where lower housing costs put a 3,000-square-foot house in reach.

                  Allender says he can tolerate his new 63-mile drive to work since he only has to go in three times a week.

                  “If I had to be in the office five days a week, there’s no way,” says the managing director of an engineering company in Oakland.

                  A recent analysis of satellite-navigation data for the 10 largest cities in the U.S. shows he’s not alone in making that calculus.

                  America’s Commute to Work Is Getting Longer and Longer© Provided by The Wall Street Journal

                  Examining two million morning commutes over the same four-month period in 2023-24 and 2019-20, Stanford University economists Nick Bloom and Alex Finan found the number of longer drives—though still a fraction of total trips—rose the most over the four years: As a share of all morning commutes, those between 50 and 74 miles rose 18%, while those 75 miles and up rose 32%. Commutes less than 35 miles, which were the majority of all commutes, declined, according to their analysis of data from transportation research firm INRIX.

                  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/america-s-commute-to-work-is-getting-longer-and-longer/ar-BB1nzqQ1


                  10. If you answer ‘always’ to these 8 questions, you’re mentally stronger than most

                  Scott Mautz, Contributor@/IN/SCOTTMAUTZ/

                  Mental strength is the ability to productively regulate your emotions, thoughts and behaviors, even in challenging circumstances. It’s how you manage internally, so you can operate better externally. 
                  Most of us intuitively understand that to be successful at work and in life, you need to self-regulate. But it’s hard to do in practice. 
                  I’ve spent 30 years studying what makes people, and especially leaders, mentally strong. As part of my research, I’ve developed a Mental Strength Self-Assessment that helps you gauge where you are, and what you can do to level up. 
                  DON’T MISS: The ultimate guide to becoming a master communicator and public speaker
                  Here’s a mini-assessment: If you answer “always” to these eight questions, you’re mentally stronger than most.
                  1. Are you resilient in the face of setbacks?
                  When you’re navigating obstacles and facing challenges, there are bound to be moments of defeat. But what determines your mental strength is how — and whether — you pick yourself up and press on. 
                  Mentally strong people find and focus on the opportunity in adversity, rather than the threat. Instead of getting stuck in unproductive emotional reactions and the sense that “it’s not fair,” they accept where they are and ask: “How do we move forward now?”
                  2. Do you perform well under pressure?
                  Your ability to thrive under pressure is based in large part on your mindset and initial response to stressors. Being mentally strong means thinking “challenge” rather than “threat.” 
                  If you see something as a threat, your body responds as it might to a predator in the wild: with a fast-beating heart, sweaty palms, tense muscles and an upset stomach. Feeling anxious and imagining everything that could go wrong undermines your ability to perform. 
                  Mentally strong people think: “I’m prepared for this challenge.”
                  This approach helps them handle stress, increase their focus and control their emotions and thoughts, enhancing their ability to perform. They ignore “What if …?” and think “What will,” as in “What will now happen is that I’m going to ….”
                  3. Do you avoid approval-seeking behavior?
                  Mentally strong people chase authenticity, not approval. They know approval is elusive, and pursuing it with people-pleasing behaviors can erode their confidence, advertise their insecurity and create a false and temporary sense of comfort. 
                  They understand how their need for approval holds them back, and act like they already have approval. 
                  4. Do you avoid comparing yourself to others?
                  Comparing yourself to others most often makes you feel small and inadequate. 
                  It’s an exercise that typically involves comparing your own weaknesses to other people’s strengths. You attribute their success to some kind of inherent superiority, rather than considering the context and factors that may have worked in their favor. 
                  People with the most mental strength only make comparisons to who they were yesterday. Instead of concentrating on whether they measure up to someone else in one way or another, they ask themselves if they’re becoming better versions of themselves. 
                  5. How often do you challenge the status quo?
                  Mentally strong people know that boldness leads to growth. Boldness means thinking big, taking risks, pushing past discomfort, trying new things and embracing change in pursuit of something worthwhile.  
                  It requires uncovering the beliefs holding you back, exposing the unhelpful assumptions and stagnant stories you tell yourself and tearing off the self-applied labels weighing you down. 
                  Boldness means replacing limiting beliefs, like “I’m not good enough,” with empowering beliefs, like “I have all the ability I need to succeed.” 
                  6. Are you able to manage your negative emotions in the moment they arise?
                  Mentally strong people don’t let negative emotions take over. 
                  When they feel their temperature rising, they breathe, take a moment and, if needed, create some distance between themselves and the intensity of their emotion.
                  People with the most mental strength only make comparisons to who they were yesterday.
                  They don’t let the emotion pull them somewhere they don’t want to be. 
                  Instead, they name what they’re feeling, so it loses its hold over them. Then they logically reassess the situation and reframe it in a way that allows them to take actions that lead to beneficial outcomes.  
                  7. How often would you (or others) say you’re decisive?
                  Indecision is a lack of self-regulation, discipline, courage and conviction in an especially damaging form. It’s particularly harmful for people in leadership positions. 
                  At work, indecision can bring an organization to a standstill, drain a team’s energy and damage employees’ sense of certainty. When leaders don’t make decisions, they leave multiple options open for too long, costing the organization money and delaying timelines. 
                  In life, hesitation allows someone else to jump on that thing you didn’t. It causes you to burn time second-guessing yourself that you could have spent being the first mover. 
                  Mentally strong leaders are decisive, evaluating the cost of a wrong decision versus indecision, setting deadlines for deciding, accepting inevitable choices sooner and willingly making tough, unpopular calls when they need to. 
                  8. How often do you hold yourself accountable?
                  Mentally strong people aren’t afraid to look in the mirror and ask themselves: 

                  • “Where am I making excuses instead of progress?” 
                  • “Where am I avoiding the issue instead of owning it?” 
                  • “Where am I blaming instead of being brave?”

                  Holding yourself accountable isn’t always easy, but doing the right thing rarely is. 
                  Even if you can’t answer “always” to all of the questions above right now, that doesn’t mean you never will. With the right intention and tools, you can get — and stay — mentally stronger. 
                  Scott Mautz is a popular speaker, trainer, and LinkedIn Learning instructor. He’s a former senior executive of Procter & Gamble, where he ran several of the company’s largest multi-billion-dollar businesses. He is the author of ”The Mentally Strong Leader: Build the Habits to Productively Regulate Your Emotions, Thoughts, and Behaviors.” Follow him on LinkedIn.
                  https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/mental-strength-test.html

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 03 2024

                  1. Update Value vs. Growth Stocks

                  Barrons The Russell 1000 Value Index trades at 15.8 times 12-month forward earnings, a deep discount to its growth counterpart at 27.9 times.

                  2. Spread Between Largest Nasdaq Names and the Rest.

                  Spread Between Nasdaq 100 and Rest of Nasdaq Names (Comp)

                  Chart from Jonathan Baird
                  https://www.linkedin.com/groups/1964467/?highlightedUpdateUrn=urn%3Ali%3AgroupPost%3A1964467-7203020979462156289&q=highlightedFeedForGroups


                  3. Software ETF IGV Closes Below 200 Day

                  IGV-A Series of lower highs and close below 200day after CRM missed earnings


                  4. Seasonality in Election Year

                  Marketwatch –  Clissold, in a note earlier this week, observed that since 1950 the S&P 500 has risen 77.8% of the time from April 30 to Oct. 31 in election years, that’s the strongest of the four years in the presidential election cycle. The 3.3% median gain seen over that stretch in election years is the second highest (see table below).

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-defying-sell-in-may-and-go-away-why-the-u-s-presidential-election-could-aid-summer-rally-40312a79?mod=home-page


                  5. American Exceptionalism Last 5 Years.

                  Chartr Blog USA #1 – Another reason economists might have a rosier view of the American economy than the general public? A global perspective. Indeed, the US has seen real GDP grow by nearly 9% since the pandemic began, by far the strongest of any of its G7 peers, which have averaged only 2.7%. Canada’s economy has been the next best in the group of seven, growing 5%.

                  The great American consumer.

                  Despite sky-high interest rates and inflation, good old-fashioned consumer spending – the biggest slice of the US economic pie – has been nearly unstoppable for more than 3 years, with people continuing to splurge. However, very recently, there have been signs that some consumers might be starting to crack. Retail sales growth halted abruptly in April, and recent earnings from Target and Walmart suggest that lower-income consumers are starting to struggle, with Fortune reporting “a shift from spending on wants to needs”, with similar sentiments shared by executives at other consumer companies.

                  In recent years, when consumers felt the pinch, many had pandemic-era savings to dip into thanks to stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, tax credits, and the fact that there wasn’t much to spend your money on during lockdown. This influx of cash bolstered our bank accounts significantly: one economic model estimates that America banked excess savings worth a staggering ~9% of nominal GDP during 2021.

                  www.chartr.com


                  6. Josh Brown Ritholtz Wealth-Wide Dispersion in Retail Stocks.

                  https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/big-picture-idea-second-half-2024


                  7. Cyber Crime Losses


                  8. Solar and battery storage to make up 81% of new U.S. electric-generating capacity in 2024.

                  Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, December 2023 

                  https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61424


                  9. American Home Equity $32 Trillion…Added $12 T Since 2019.

                  by Ben Carlson America’s Piggie Banks Are Full The pandemic housing boom means Americans have more home equity than ever.

                  Households have added roughly $12 trillion in home equity since the end of 2019:

                  https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/06/americas-piggie-banks-are-full


                  10. Classroom vs. Real Life-Farnam Street Blog

                  There is a certain category of decisions that work well in the classroom but not in real life. I call these chalkboard decisions. These decisions tease us because the math always seems correct. 

                  The problem is that most decisions are less about the math and more about judgment. The math always points to the optimal immediate decision, which is rarely the best long-term decision. 

                  Consider paying off your mortgage. With 2% interest rates, the spreadsheet will tell you it doesn’t make sense to pay off your mortgage. Instead, put the money you would have used to pay off your house in the stock market. Assuming an 8% return, you’d be much better off. 

                  The math in chalkboard decisions is irrefutable. And yet, the best decisions are often based on positioning yourself for things you can’t see. 

                  What if we have a pandemic? What if the stock market drops 20% or 30%? What if mortgage rates rise 10%? Can you handle these events with equanimity, or will circumstances force you to do something you don’t want to do? 

                  I see the same thing in business all the time. The math says lever up, reduce inventory, pay your employees as little as possible, charge your customers as much as possible, and take advantage of the weakness of your suppliers. You don’t need to look far to see companies who take this approach. In the short term, these decisions almost always seem optimal. In the long term, they almost always fail. 

                  If it helps to visualize chalkboard decisions, imagine standing at the base of a 2000m mountain with two paths in front of you. You can only see the next 100m of each, and one path looks easier. If you only consider what you can see, you’ll choose the easier path. Only after you walk the first bit do you realize that choosing the easiest visible path leads to a cliff and doesn’t take you where you want to go. 

                  Our ability to predict the future is never as certain in the real world as in the classroom. No matter how compelling the math, the best chalkboard decision might not be the best overall move.

                  https://fs.blog

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 31 2024

                  1. Will Nvidia Become the Largest Company in the World?

                  @Charlie Bilello
                  That question would’ve seemed absurd just a few years ago.

                  For at the start of 2020, Nvidia had a market cap of $144 billion.

                  Fast forward to today and it’s market cap stands at $2.82 trillion, over 19x higher.

                  The only companies in the world with a bigger market cap than Nvidia: Microsoft ($3.19 trillion) and Apple ($2.92 trillion).
                  If you think that’s an incredible stat, how about this one: Nvidia’s market cap is now over $1 trillion higher than all of the companies in the S&P 500 Energy sector … combined.


                  2. Stock Market Concentration at Multi-Decade Highs

                  Digging further into the S&P 500’s concentration, one of the reasons today’s environment is so different than that of other periods of high concentration is its top-heaviness. According to data from J.P. Morgan, the weight of the largest 11th-50th stocks in the S&P 500 is still near multi-decade lows while the weight of the 10 largest stocks is the highest it’s been since the early 1970s. The weight of the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 is 32.1%, but as mentioned earlier, the weight of the five largest stocks is over 25%. Therefore, most of the exposure of the 10 largest stocks comes from just five stocks. Breaking it down further, the average year-to-date performance of the largest 6-50th stocks in the S&P 500 is 6.90%. That’s better than the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index but is still lagging the SPX by a considerable margin. This is all to say that the market is truly being led and carried by just a handful of stocks.


                  3. Concentrated Returns Leaves Market Breadth Lagging


                  4. Why 10-year Treasury yields should fall into year end, based on 60 years of history

                  Joy Wiltermuth Marketwatch

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-10-year-treasury-yields-should-fall-into-year-end-based-on-60-years-of-history-12f32077?mod=home-page


                  5. Consumer Discretionary Stocks Underperforming

                  Consumer Spending ETF XLY vs. S&P ….Breaking below 2023 lows.


                  6. Same Store Sales Growth of Big 3 Retailers

                  Jack Ablin Cresset

                  Home


                  7. Salesforce Chart-Negative 1-Year Return After Yesterday

                  CRM closed below 200-week moving average on long-term chart….

                  www.stockcharts.com


                  8. DELL -14% Pre-Market

                  DELL $35 to $170 since 2023


                  9. Global Private Debt Update

                  Bloomberg

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/what-is-private-credit-how-does-it-work-and-what-are-the-risks?sref=GGda9y2L


                  10. Who’d Want to Give a Commencement Speech Anymore?

                  Sarah Kessler

                  Tim Cook has delivered at least seven commencement addresses since becoming CEO of Apple. Superstar Taylor Swift, whose concerts have been credited with lifting local economies, addressed New York University’s graduation ceremony in 2022. Bill Gates, Oprah Winfrey, Jamie Dimon — they’ve all given graduation speeches more than once.

                  They’re obviously not doing it for the money (and typically there isn’t any). Instead, speakers have long seen graduation ceremonies as offering something increasingly rare: a stage where a large group of people gather to hear speakers impart wisdom, advice or whatever else they want to talk about.

                  The appeal of being a commencement speaker, however, seems to be waning.

                  Just three Fortune 50 CEOs appear to be commencement speakers this year, as colleges have faced campus protests over the war in the Gaza Strip and student arrests, and wealthy alumni threatening to break ties with their alma maters over antisemitism.
                  “The idea of CEOs going out aggressively and speaking anywhere near this environment on campuses, it just doesn’t seem like the moment for them to be doing that,” said David Murray, executive director of the Professional Speechwriters Association.

                  CEOs are tired of talking. At a recent meeting of executive speechwriters, Murray said one takeaway stood out. As one presenter put it, “Less is more in ’24.”

                  Murray highlighted the sentiment in the Professional Speechwriters Association’s May newsletter: “Folks will increasingly keep their leaders out of the spotlight,” he wrote, describing the current moment as one in which “even formerly anodyne messages encouraging employees to vote” sound partisan to some.

                  That approach marks a drastic change from when executives made statements in droves after the death of a Black man, George Floyd, in police custody in 2020.

                  “They didn’t get rewarded for it,” Murray said. “They got called woke. One group said they didn’t go far enough, one group said they went too far, and now they’re definitely in a phase of ‘We comment on things that absolutely have essential bearing on our company and our business.’”

                  Campuses reflect an era of division. Before the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, the war in Gaza and the campus protests that followed, the City University of New York School of Law announced that it would have no commencement speaker. The school had faced a backlash when speakers at previous commencements focused on their support for Palestinians.

                  After protests on campus related to the war, and the ensuing controversy over how school administrations handled them, Columbia University announced that it would cancel its main commencement ceremony altogether. And across the country, as many ceremonies carried on without disruption, several have been interrupted by protests and walkouts, some targeting the school’s choice of speaker.

                  Speechwriters are increasingly preparing for disruption, said Michael Franklin, executive director of the industry association Speechwriters of Color.

                  “A new part of the package this year, in addition to the remarks that they would deliver, is also having some alternative transition remarks in the event of a disruption,” he said.

                  Some executives prefer chats to speeches. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella accepted an honorary doctorate at Georgia Tech this year but did not give a commencement speech. Instead, at a special ceremony in January, he delivered a five-minute speech, left the stage to remove his graduation robe and returned for a “fireside chat” with the school’s president, Ángel Cabrera.

                  “They love fireside chats,” Murray said of executives. “They want to sit down, have a chummy conversation, look charming, be charming, say short things, kind of stick to their key messages.”

                  Kate Linkous, an executive vice president in Edelman’s corporate reputation practice, said she’s also noticed more conferences replacing their keynote speeches with fireside chats.

                  “The commencement speech is one of our last few brilliant examples of a long-form speech,” she said.

                  Will the commencement address as we know it survive? One potential outcome is that the address just becomes boring, as speakers focus on avoiding controversy.

                  “Whenever you’re in a position of trying to sand something down, you end up appealing to no one and saying nothing,” said Ben Krauss, a former speechwriter for Joe Biden and other politicians and CEO of Fenway Strategies, a speech writing and strategic communications firm. His advice?

                  “People have been protesting commencements for as long as there have been commencements,” he said. “If someone interrupts, someone interrupts. That’s just kind of a natural feature of human communication.”

                  c.2024 The New York Times Company

                  Who’d Want to Give a Commencement Speech Anymore? (yahoo.com)

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 29 2024

                  1. Equity Positioning Not At Extreme Bullish

                  From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
                  Deutsche Bank’s measure of positioning shows investors are “overweight” equities but not to the “extreme” levels seen in 2021 and 2018.


                  2. Fear and Greed Index Neutral

                  https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


                  3. Semis Relative to S&P


                  4. Semis -20% in Five Weeks -Bespoke Investments

                  Since its closing low on April 19th, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has rallied over 20% in five weeks. When anything rallies that much in so little time, you can’t help but take notice, but in the case of the SOX, the current rally is already the second this year – and it’s not even June!

                  As shown below, the SOX rallied 21.2% in the five weeks ending on March 7th, and back in June 2023, it was also up 20% over five weeks for a third time in the last year.

                  The fact that there have been three separate five-week rallies of at least 20% sounds pretty remarkable.  In the post-COVID environment, though, they’ve been somewhat common with eight other occurrences (besides the current one) since April 2020.  That’s more than the seven total occurrences from 2003 through 2019, but from the SOX’s inception through the end of 2002, when semis were a much less ‘mature’ sector, there were a total of 20 different periods when the SOX rallied at least 20% in five weeks. As shown in the chart below, in many of those periods, the magnitude of the gain was much larger than 20%!

                  https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/semis-20-in-five-weeks


                  5. Equal Weighted S&P Trades Below 10 Year Average P/E

                  Unio Capital

                  https://uniocapital.com


                  6. S&P Margins Keep Increasing

                  From Irrelevant Investor Blog -Michael Batnick

                  https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/animal-spirits-wages-beating-inflation


                  7. Last Week’s Market All Tech

                  The Daily Shot Brief 
                  Equities: 
                  The rally is increasingly dominated by tech/growth stocks, with the rest of the market lagging. Here is last week’s performance by sector:

                  Source: The Daily Shot


                  8. Apple’s iPhone sales in China jump 52% in April, data shows

                  By Reuters   
                  BEIJING, May 28 (Reuters) – Apple’s (AAPL.O), opens new tab smartphone shipments in China rose 52% in April from a year ago, extending a rebound seen in March, according to data from a research firm affiliated the Chinese government.

                  The jump follows a weak performance by the U.S. tech giant in the world’s biggest smartphone market earlier this year amid intensifying competition in the high-end smartphone category from local rivals like Huawei (HWT.UL).
                  Shipments of foreign-branded phones in China increased by 52% in April to 3.495 million units from 2.301 million a year earlier, data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) showed on Tuesday.

                  Apple’s shares rose 2.3% in premarket trading.

                  Although the data did not explicitly mention Apple, the company is the dominant foreign phone maker in China’s smartphone market. This suggests that the increase in foreign-branded shipments can be attributed to Apple’s performance.
                   
                  https://www.reuters.com/technology/apples-iphone-sales-april-jump-52-data-shows-2024-05-28/?utm_campaign=mb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew


                  9. High Paying Remote Jobs Fading Fast

                  Kelsey Kernstine

                  • A new study by job-seeking website Ladders found that high-paying remote jobs fell nearly 60%, while hybrid job availability fell 95% over the past year. 
                  • Plus, a survey by Resume Builder found that 90% of companies out of the 1,000 surveyed said they expect a full five-day week return to the office by the end of this year. 
                  • For those looking to make $250,000 or more annually, only 4% of those jobs are available for remote work. A year ago, it was 10%. 

                  (NewsNation) — Loving that remote job? Employees hoping for a raise might want to reconsider working from home. 
                  A new study by job-seeking website Ladders found that high-paying remote jobs fell nearly 60%, while hybrid job availability fell 95% over the past year.
                   
                  Higher-paying jobs require more commitment from their employees, including showing up to the office daily. Companies have found it is better for their bottom line to have workers in the office versus working from home.
                  78% of Americans see fast food as a ‘luxury’: Survey 

                  Return-to-office requirements

                  CITI, HSBC and Barclays banks are now among those companies requiring employees to return to the office five days a week, according to a Bloomberg report.
                  Plus, a survey by Resume Builder found that 90% of companies out of the 1,000 surveyed said they expect a full five-day week return to the office by the end of this year. 
                  For those looking to make $250,000 or more annually, only 4% of those jobs are available for remote work. A year ago, it was 10%. 

                  Remote workers make less money: Data

                  Remote jobs still exist, but many companies that allow employees to work from home are likely to be paid less. 
                  James Terry, a hiring expert from Indeed Flex, told NewsNation that moving up the career ladder is tied to in-office employment. 
                  Has McDonald’s menu outpaced inflation? 
                  “A lot of businesses and organizations I’ve spoken with have actually really wrestled with the idea of promotions and growth within organizations, and do people who work fully remote have the same, truly the same type of opportunities for career advancement as those that work in the office,” Terry said.
                  Even Zoom, the company that made work from home a possibility during the COVID-19 pandemic, is now demanding its employees come back to the office at least twice a week.
                  https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/equality/4688785-high-paying-remote-work-jobs-fading-fast-study/


                  10. Events Can Only Harm You If They Harm Your Character

                  The Daily Stoic
                  John Profumo screwed up. He had an affair with what turned out to be a spy. He lied about it. As a result, the prime minister lost his job. The country was embarrassed. He was canceled, driven into political exile from which he was never able to return.

                  Did he deserve it all? Maybe. Probably.

                  But what’s interesting is what happened after. Because instead of licking his wounds, instead of being angry, instead of nursing many grievances, what John Profumo did instead was go to work at Toynbee Hall, a poverty-fighting charity in England. For the next forty years he was the charity’s single longest-serving volunteer, working his way up from manual labor to its chief fundraiser, almost entirely without recognition or fanfare.

                  This is a story told in Right Thing Right Now (a book about the Stoic virtue of justice, which you can preorder…right now) because it’s so rare. Here is someone engulfed in scandal and shame, largely of his own making, who instead of being made worse by it, instead of trying to settle scores or prove people wrong, he decided to become better for it. Someone who quietly, diligently, decided not to be defined by what happened to him—at least to himself anyway. He did try to prove people wrong, but only in the sense that he sought to prove that he was not who he was at his worst moment.

                  Marcus Aurelius talks in Meditations about how events can only harm you if they harm your character. He talks about how the best revenge is to not be like that. It is so easy in the middle of a scandal or after a huge mistake, to double down. To make it all about you. To become bitter and angry about the unfairness of it all. Profumo didn’t do that. Instead, he made something positive out of it. He showed his truecharacter. He got revenge not on his political enemies but on the old version of himself.

                  That’s why seeing justice as a way of being, as how you treat others, is so important. It’s why Marcus Aurelius called it “the source of all other virtues.” Because how can we become better versions of ourselves, how can we reach the heights of our potential, if we can’t admit our past blunders, if we can’t make amends with others, if we can’t own the unpleasant responsibility of who we’ve been? Justice, as the Stoics understood, is the foundation to true self-improvement.

                  Which is exactly why I wrote my new book Right Thing, Right Now: Good Values. Good Character. Good Deeds., which features the stories of Profumo, Marcus Aurelius, and many more…

                  https://dailystoic.com

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 28 2024

                  1 – 2. Q1 Earnings Recap

                  Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
                  AI-focused “Fab Five” lift large caps to best earnings growth in almost 2 years.
                  We wanted to hold off until we got Nvidia’s earnings before doing our Q1 earnings recap… and they did not disappoint (+468% YoY earnings growth for Nvidia)! 
                  Now, Q1 earnings season is all but done for the S&P 500 (96% reported), and it turned out pretty well for large caps (and especially mega caps).
                  S&P 500 earnings grew +6% YoY in Q1 (chart below, orange bar) – the strongest growth in nearly two years.

                  But, as we showed a month ago, earnings were top heavy. Earnings for the AI-related “Fab Five” (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia) grew +85% YoY, while earnings actually fell 2% YoY for the rest of the S&P 500.
                  3 buckets of sector earnings: AI-related, ongoing earnings recessions, and everyone else
                  At the sector level, the divide wasn’t quite so stark. Instead, they fell into three buckets: AI-related sectors, those still in earnings recessions, and everyone else (chart below).

                  • AI-related sectors saw 25%+ YoY earnings growth: Information Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities (dark green bars).
                  • Continued earnings recessions for Health Care, Energy, and Materials (red bars) for the same reasons (drop in Covid-related spending, 25% YoY drop in natural gas prices, and earlier manufacturing recession, respectively).
                  • Everyone else saw +4% to +10% YoY earnings growth. These sectors (Financials, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate) aren’t AI hubs, but they’re still benefitting from a strong economy (light green bars).

                  3. S&P 5 Straight Weeks of Gains…..Positive 23 of Past 30 Weeks

                  Jim Reid Deutsche Bank
                  After another run of 5 consecutive weekly gains, the S&P 500 is in rarefied historical territory again. For example, the index is now up for 23 of the last 30 weeks, which is a joint record since 1989. And if this week ahead is positive again, it would mark 24/31 weekly advances, which would be a joint record back to 1963.

                  Unsurprisingly, some of these relentless advances happen as the economy is recovering from a recession. So, in 1958 for example, the index set an all-time record of 26 positive weeks out of 30. Equities went on a serious rally as output began to rebound after the 1957-58 recession, whilst unemployment came down. It’s a similar story in 1954 and 1980, and some have made that recession argument about today’s moves since a US recession in 2023 had been the overwhelming consensus at one point. But as optimism about a soft landing has grown, equities have rallied very strongly.

                  Another theme is that the rallies have often occurred around periods of tax cuts. There was a very strong rally in 1964, which came around the time that President Kennedy’s proposed tax cuts came into force, having been signed by President Johnson in 1964. Another happened in 1986, ahead of the passage of the Reagan tax cuts in his second term, which substantially reduced the top rate again. A similar theme happened in 2017-18, around the passage of the Trump tax cuts. Given markets are forward-looking, it’s plausible that this anticipation is working beforehand as well as afterwards.

                  A more concerning theme is that a few of these happen shortly before recessions – a last hurrah for equities if you will. In fact, by March 1929, the S&P 500 had gone on a run of 23/30 gains, just like today, yet the Wall Street Crash happened six months later. Likewise in December 1989, it had been on a run of 23/30 gains, but the economy was in recession within the year. It’s the same in March 1945, where the 23/30 weekly rally ended just as a recession was beginning.

                  So, are markets rallying on the lack of a recession, or is this the last gasp before the next recession? Either way, the chart shows that we’re nudging up against what would be the most relentless run of gains in history.


                  4. Percentage of Stocks with Dividend Yields Above Treasury Yields.

                  Ned Davis Research


                  5. It’s Not Anything Close to 1999…Check P/E’s Below

                  Charlie Bilello

                  Unsustainable Values: Interesting to reflect on this piece of historical art — while the internet would a decade or so later become ubiquitous and a source of tremendous wealth and innovation, at the height of the dot com bubble it was pure hype at that stage… certainly relative to the valuations prevailing at that time.

                  Source:  @kakashiii111 @NewLowObserver


                  6. China World Leader in Battery-Electric Vehicle Sales

                  Barrons By Al Root

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-ev-tesla-ford-gm-trade-tarrifs-63cd62cc?mod=past_editions


                  7. Record Travel Memorial Day

                  CRUZ ETF still below all-time highs.


                  8. First Drop in Home Remodeling 10 Years…9% Home Credit Lines

                  WSJ By Ryan Dezember  
                  A widely cited barometer of the remodeling market is pointing to the first annual decline in home-improvement spending since the housing bust of the late 2000s. That would follow a run up to last year’s record $481 billion, threatening a reliable source of economic growth and stock-market gains.

                  https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/deck-makers-450-million-bet-on-americas-renovation-boom-69969f9c


                  9. Cannabis Passes Alcohol in Daily Consumption

                  www.zerohedge.com


                  10. Steady 54% of Americans Identify as Middle Class

                  More Republicans, fewer Democrats identify as working class and lower class
                  BY MEGAN BRENAN

                  https://news.gallup.com/poll/645281/steady-americans-identify-middle-class.aspx

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 24 2024

                  1. REITS Roll Back Over

                  VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF 4 lower highs on chart.


                  2. Follow-Up on Dow Theory…Transports Not Cooperating

                  Marketwatch-by Christine Idzelis

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-lag-tech-gains-as-nvidia-stock-pops/?mod=home-page


                  3. Transports Chart-A Couple Ticks from New 2024 Lows


                  4. Semiconductors New Highs

                  SMH-Semiconductor ETF….Does Dow Theory Stil Matter?


                  5. China De-Dollarizing Cross Border Transactions

                  Zerohedge Blog The De-Dollarization of China’s Cross-Border Transactions

                  This analysis uses Bloomberg data on the share of China’s payments and receipts in RMB, USD, and other currencies from 2010 to 2024. 

                  In the first few months of 2010, settlements in local currency accounted for less than 1.0% of China’s cross-border payments, compared to approximately 83.0% in USD. 

                  China has since closed that gap. In March 2023, the share of the RMB in China’s settlements surpassed the USD for the first time.

                  Since then, the de-dollarization in Chinese international settlements has continued.  

                  As of March 2024, over half (52.9%) of Chinese payments were settled in RMB while 42.8% were settled in USD. This is double the share from five years previous. According to Goldman Sachs, foreigners’ increased willingness to trade assets denominated in RMB significantly contributed to de-dollarization in favor of China’s currency. Also, early last year, Brazil and Argentina announced that they would begin allowing trade settlements in RMB. 

                  Most Popular Currencies in Foreign Exchange (FX) Transactions

                  Globally, analysis from the Bank for International Settlements reveals that, in 2022, the USD remained the most-used currency for FX settlements. The euro and the Japanese yen came in second and third, respectively.

                  The Chinese renminbi, though accounting for a relatively small share of FX transactions, gained the most ground over the last decade. Meanwhile, the euro and the yen saw decreases in use. 
                  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/start-de-dollarization-chinas-move-away-usd


                  6. The Dollar Still Strong

                  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/22/home-sales-whacked-by-mortgage-rates-active-listings-price-reductions-jump-to-highest-in-years-but-sales-of-high-end-homes-surge


                  7. Ethereum Gets the ETF Approval

                  ETHE about to make new highs.


                  8. XLE Energy ETF-Chart

                  A few lower highs …trending down.


                  9. Tax Burden by State

                  Food for Thought: The tax burden by state:

                  Source: Visual Capitalist


                  10. While U.S. Kids are on TikTok…….In Russia at war, kids swap classroom for shooting range

                  By Reuters

                  VLADIKAVKAZ, Russia, May 24 (Reuters) – Fourteen-year-old Russian schoolboy David learned something new this month: firing accurately with a Kalashnikov is trickier than with a pistol.
                  With other pupils, he got to try out the weapons as part of basic military training – a feature of the school programme that was dropped in the final years of the Soviet Union but has been reintroduced since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
                  In the southern city of Vladikavkaz this month teenage boys in camouflage uniform took turns at firing weapons and practising first aid under the eye of instructors.
                  “It’s easier to fire a pistol. And it’s more difficult to take aim with an assault rifle,” said David, a lanky boy with black hair and glasses.
                  He said the firearms practice would “make life easier” for him in the future. Military service is compulsory for young men in Russia, whose war in Ukraine is now well into its third year.
                  Sergei Menyailo, a retired vice-admiral who is now the leader of Russia’s North Ossetia region, referred to the conflict in remarks to the youngsters, telling them the training would help them “to fulfil your military duty within a team” if they had to fight one day.
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                  The education ministry issued a decree in late 2022 introducing basic military training into the school curriculum as part of a subject called “basics of life safety”. Critics see it as part of a growing militarisation of Russian society since the start of the war.
                  Boris Kantemirov, local head of a volunteer organisation that supports the armed forces, said the training delivered skills that any soldier would need.
                  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-war-kids-swap-classroom-shooting-range-2024-05-24/

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 23 2024

                  1. New Lows in Stock Volatility VIX


                  2. List of Countries with Semiconductor Government Funding

                  Dave Lutz Jones Trading
                  South Korea has unveiled a 26 trillion won ($19 billion) package of incentives to bolster its chip sector – The total is more than double the 10 trillion won Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok had proposed less than two weeks ago.  Shares in Samsung reversed earlier losses to gain as much as 1.4 per cent in Seoul after the announcement. Other semiconductor stocks had climbed in Asia in the wake of Nvidia’s earnings blowout. SK Hynix’s stock extended its morning gains and was up about 3 per cent after the news.


                  3. The Size of AI Market

                  Capital Group

                  Separating AI hype from investment opportunity | Capital Group


                  4. NVDA 10 for 1 Split….Does Market Return to Stock Splits?


                  5. American Consumer is Spending at Record Rates


                  6. Months Supply of Existing Homes

                  Wolf Street

                  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/22/home-sales-whacked-by-mortgage-rates-active-listings-price-reductions-jump-to-highest-in-years-but-sales-of-high-end-homes-surge


                  7. Fast Food Inflation

                  From Zach Goldberg Jefferies


                  8. Surging Golf Membership Costs

                  Jack Ablin Cresset
                  As equity markets hit new highs, country club costs are surging and meme stocks are on the rise again.  Since the end of 2018, the cost of playing golf at public and private golf courses has surged more than 40 per cent, nearly twice the rate of inflation overall.

                  https://cressetcapital.com/about/team/jack-ablin


                  9. Top 10 Countries by GDP

                  Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

                  https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


                  10. Think for Yourself

                  Psychology Today Steven A Hassan PhD

                  https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/freedom-of-mind/202405/a-few-words-for-graduates

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 22 2024

                  1. Ethereum +52% in 5 Days


                  2. Gold/Oil and Inflation

                  Barrons
                  On Friday, May Comex gold settled at a record $2412.20 an ounce, up 32.8% from October. WTI crude, meanwhile, trades around $80 a barrel, up from around $70 a year ago, although off from its short-lived pop over $90 after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. (For more on the bullish outlook for energy, see “12 Stocks to Play Growing Energy Demand.”)

                  Looking at what has happened to gold and oil, “the inflation outlook in the coming year is for a large increase,” Ranson concludes from his model.


                  3. Gold Priced in Yen

                  Bespoke Investment Group

                  https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-closer-tech-new-highs-fedspeak-build-conference-5-20-24


                  4. Silver Breaks Out of 5 Year


                  5. Silver Market Shortages

                  Commodities: The global silver market is on course for the fourth straight year of shortages.

                  Source: @markets   Read full article


                  6. Two Wars but Oil Volatility Measure Hitting New Lows

                  Dave Lutz Jones Trading
                  Oil’s implied volatility near lows last seen in 2019 according to one measure, despite ongoing drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and another Houthi attack against a tanker in the Red Sea area over the weekend.


                  7. Ratio Emerging Markets to U.S.

                  @Charlie Bilello With China rally, this becomes chart to watch


                  8. GenAI Demand for Energy

                  Marketwatch
                  “Demand for electricity was almost flat for two decades. We are now beginning to see this trend reverse — driven by large customers such as industrial manufacturers, data processors and others who require significant amounts of power,” Fowke said as he spoke before the committee.

                  He told the panel that a large manufacturing facility just a few years ago might have required the same amount of power as 100,000 homes, but now it’s common for a single data center to need up three times, or even 15 times, that amount of juice.

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-could-demand-a-shocking-amount-of-electricity-check-out-this-chart-e91e306d?mod=home-page


                  9. College Sports S-Show

                  Morningbrew

                  https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


                  10. Psychologist Adam Grant Says Your Overall Success at Work Comes Down to 3 Familiar Words

                  The always-brilliant Adam Grant offers a different spin on success and work-life balance.
                  BY MARCEL SCHWANTES, INC. CONTRIBUTING EDITOR AND FOUNDER, LEADERSHIP FROM THE CORE @MARCELSCHWANTES
                   
                  Adam Grant. 
                  Some people subscribe to the idea that work-life balance is critical for achieving success. Wharton organizational psychologist Adam Grant has a different take. He once called work-life balance “mostly a myth” and stressed something else as the key to success. We can boil Grant’s advice down to three words:

                  Work more hours.  

                  Let’s put that in the right context. In a previous video posted on the Mic Facebook page, Grant tells viewers, “It’s not to say you have to be a workaholic in order to be successful, although the evidence is strong that one of the ways that people become successful is they just work more hours. Or they work with more intense focus than their peers.”

                  Grant adds, “But I don’t think that means you can’t have a life. The idea that work-life balance means ‘I show up at 10 a.m. and I’m done by 3 p.m.’ is ridiculous. The successful people I know don’t tend to have very balanced days. They will have a whole day where all they do is work. But then the next day, all they do is spend time with their families.”

                  Work With More Intense Focus

                  Grant has a good point, and I have seen a big difference in my own productivity when I work with intense focus, but definitely short of crossing the line into workaholism. That’s not healthy and leads to burnout. So, what’s the key? How do you get that same intense focus to maximize your day and get a ton of stuff done? The best way to do it is to achieve a state of flow.

                  Flow is a state of mind where time flies by and productivity increases. It’s like hitting that sweet spot where everything just clicks. This mental state was studied by psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, in which we benefit from peak experience and performance, enjoying what we’re doing and performing at our best. It’s being “in the zone” where we are entirely focused, free from distractions, and able to learn, grow, and improve.

                  Here’s how you can tap into it:

                  Clear Goals: Start by setting clear, achievable goals for what you want to accomplish. When you know what you’re aiming for, it’s easier to stay focused and engaged.

                  Challenge Yourself: Find tasks that are just challenging enough to keep you engaged but not so difficult that they overwhelm you. Flow happens when you’re stretched just the right amount.

                  Eliminate Distractions: Minimize interruptions and distractions as much as possible. Turn off notifications, close unnecessary tabs, and create a quiet workspace where you can concentrate.

                  Focus on the Task at Hand: Dive deep into what you’re doing. Forget about everything else for a while and immerse yourself completely in the task.

                  Stay Present: Don’t worry about the past or the future. Focus on the present moment and give your full attention to what you’re doing right now.

                  Take Breaks: Even though you’re in the zone, remember to take short breaks to rest and recharge. This can help prevent burnout and keep your energy levels up.

                  Once you find your flow, you’ll be amazed at how much more productive and fulfilled you feel. And to Grant’s point, the next day, you’ll feel like you can take the afternoon off to take the kids to the park or enjoy a bike ride on the beach. This is what having a healthy, productive life looks like. You work your butt off first, and then take time to reward yourself later. It’s what Grant meant when he said, “They will have a whole day where all they do is work. But then the next day, all they do is spend time with their families.”

                  https://www.inc.com/marcel-schwantes/adam-grant-explains-success-comes-down-to-three-words.html?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=freeform&utm_source=linkedin

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 20 2024

                  1. Summary of Biden’s China Tariffs

                  Barrons By Reshma Kapadia

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-tariffs-biden-trade-war-inflation-trump-e262d3cf?mod=past_editions


                  2. Shorts Interest in Chinese Markets at Highs

                  @Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)


                  3. China Market Outperforming World in 2024

                  RBA Investments Matthew Poterba, CFA

                  https://www.rbadvisors.com/insights/chinas-stealth-rally/


                  4. Emerging Markets ETF

                  Breaks above 200-week moving average after failing 3x in 2022-2023


                  5. FXI China Large Cap ETF

                  FXI about to break above red downtrend line going back to beginning of 2021

                  www.stockcharts.com


                  6. The Slowdown of Smartphone Shipments

                  Barrons Adam Clark

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-smartphones-google-android-apple-iphone-9d5399d3?mod=past_editions


                  7. Chipotle vs. McDonalds….CMG +38% vs. MCD -8% 2024

                  CMG vs. MCD Chart


                  8. Used Cars Deepest Drawdown Ever

                  Michael Batnick

                  https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com


                  9. World’s Wealthiest Cities

                  From Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture Blog https://ritholtz.com/2024/05/weekend-reads-615/

                  World’s Wealthiest Cities Report 2024

                  Source: Henley & Partners


                  10. Farnam Street Blog Sunday

                  FS

                  “Knowing virtues is like having a map; adopting them is actually taking the journey.” 

                  — The highest form of leverage is reputation.


                  Insights

                  “Without courage we cannot practice any other virtue with consistency. We can’t be kind, true, merciful, generous, or honest.” 

                  — Maya Angelou 

                  ** 

                  “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already.” 

                  — Tolstoy 

                  *** 

                  “People spend too much time on the last 24 hours and not enough time on the last 6,000 years.” 

                  — Will Durant 


                  Tiny Thoughts

                  The highest form of leverage is reputation. 

                  ** 

                  Imagine what you could accomplish if you weren’t focused on being right all the time. 

                  *** 

                  Reasoning in public forces discipline of thought. 

                  It’s like doing math on the chalkboard in front of the class. Every step must be clear and correct, or someone will point out the mistake. There’s no room for fuzzy thinking or skipped steps. 

                  If your reasoning is correct, you have nothing to fear. If it’s wrong, you have everything to learn.

                  https://fs.blog

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 16 2024

                  1. Negative Economic Surprises and Interest Rates

                  The Daily Shot Blog The United States: Negative economic surprises signal lower Treasury yields ahead.

                  Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.


                  2. IBIT About to Pass Grayscale GBTC in AUM

                  From Abnormal Returns Blog

                  www.abnormalreturns.com


                  3. $1 Trillion in Government Programs Around Industrial Renaissance….AIRR ETF -First Trust

                  AIRR New Highs.

                  Top 10 Holdings -Marketwatch

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/airr/holdings


                  4. GE Announced Split of Company in November 2021….Spin-Offs Jan 3, 2023

                  GE +62% Year to Date.


                  5. Copper Breaks to New Highs


                  6. Druckenmiller Bets 15% of His Portfolio on Russell 2000 Small Cap Calls….Tom Lee Pick of Year is Small Cap

                  Here’s what Druckenmiller did as he sold Nvidia — it’s a risky bet on an unloved asset
                  By Barbara Kollmeyer


                  The market wanted a reason to rally and got it on Wednesday after data showed slowing inflation and an economy that’s also ratcheting down.
                  That data combination, in theory, may make it easier for the Fed to justify an interest-rate cut, and the market hopes soonish.

                  But lower rates could also help another group of stocks, which have a tough run this year — small caps. And one big investor seems ready for this bunch of equities to take off. Our call of the day focuses on billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who just revealed a big bet on the Russell 2000 RUT in a newly released 13-F regulatory filing.
                  Through his Duquesne Family Office, Druckenmiller invested a 15% chunk of his portfolio in call options on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM in the first quarter. The filing also confirmed the firm reduced holdings in tech names Nvidia NVDA, +3.58%, which Druckenmiller discussed earlier this month, and Seagate Technology STX, +2.60%.
                  That Russell 2000 bet would indicate that Druckenmiller’s firm smells opportunity for struggling small caps, which investors have struggled to love or even like in recent years.

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-druckenmiller-did-as-he-sold-nvidia-its-a-risky-bet-on-an-unloved-asset-2e875f31?mod=dist_amp_social&link=sfmw_tw&redirect=amp

                  Business Insider-3 reasons an overlooked area of the stock market is poised for 50% gains this year, according to Fundstrat
                  Tom Lee

                  “Our top idea for 2024 is small-caps, where we see at least 50% upside,” Fundstrat’s head of research Tom Lee said in a note on Wednesday, noting that small caps are so disdained by the market that even a “wrong-way Charlie” can confidently bet against their success.
                  Lee, who nailed his 2023 stock market forecast, laid down three fundamental reasons to take a closer look at this unloved segment of the roaring US equities market.
                  First, Lee notes that Russell 2000 firms are poised for substantial revenue growth, outpacing the S&P 500 by a significant margin in 2025 from 2024 thanks to the Fed’s potential rate cut this year. 

                  “Now, you may be surprised, but small-caps actually have faster revenue growth. 6.9% versus 5.5%, that’s 140 basis points faster or nearly 25% faster growth, and that’s true in every quintile” Lee said in a video on the topic posted this week. 

                  Second, Lee also highlighted small-caps’ earnings growth potential, projecting 19% growth is earnings-per-share, outpacing the S&P 500’s 12% EPS growth. He said small-caps have an advantage in their lower P/E ratios compared to large-cap stocks, making them look more affordable to investors. 

                  Finally, the Fundstrat CEO noted that institutional investors have been dumping small caps for years, making them ripe for a turnaround trade. 
                  “[M]ulti-cap investors have multi-decade low allocations to small-caps even as small-caps have begun to outperform. We see this performance chasing as a key factor for small-caps to sustain gains,” he added.

                  https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-small-caps-surge-outperformance-tom-lee-sp500-2024-3#:~:text=%22Our%20top%20idea%20for%202024,confidently%20bet%20against%20their%20success.


                  7. Small Cap Trailing S&P Again This Year

                  Long-Term Weekly Chart….50week thru 200week to upside.

                  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13415427/Europe-gears-war-Nukes-Russias-doorstep-conscription-18-arms-factories-whirring-life-continent-faces-doomsday-WW3-scenario.html


                  8. Slovakia Prime Minister Shot 5 Times

                  Slovakia PM Fico’s condition still ‘very serious’ after surgery
                  By Ayhan Uyanik and Boldizsar Gyori

                  Item 1 of 7 Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico looks on during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany, January 24, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo

                  Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico looks on during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany, January 24, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

                  • Summary
                  • Slovak PM was shot five times at close range on Wednesday
                  • Hospital says his condition is ‘very serious’ but stable
                  • Police charge suspect with attempted murder, says website
                  • Slovakia’s president, president-elect call for calm
                  • Security council, cabinet are meeting on Thursday

                  BANSKA BYSTRICA, Slovakia, May 16 (Reuters) – Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico was in a “very serious” but stable condition on Thursday, a hospital official said, after he was shot five times in an assassination attempt that has laid bare deep political divisions in the country.
                  The shooting was the first major assassination attempt on a European political leader for more than 20 years, and spurred international condemnation, with political analysts and lawmakers saying it was indicative of an increasingly febrile and polarised political climate across the continent.
                  Advertisement · Scroll to continue
                  Slovak President Zuzana Caputova called for a calming of political tensions and said she would invite all parliamentary party leaders for a joint meeting. Fico ally and President-elect Peter Pellegrini urged parties to suspend or tone down their campaigning for next month’s European Parliament elections.
                  “If there is anything the people of Slovakia urgently need today, it is at least a basic consensus and unity among Slovaks’ political representatives,” said Pellegrini, who won an April election for the mainly ceremonial post of president.
                  Advertisement · Scroll to continue
                  News website tvnoviny.sk reported on Thursday that police had charged the suspect with attempted murder and that he could face life imprisonment.
                  Miriam Lapunikova, director of the F.D. Roosevelt University Hospital in Banska Bystrica where Fico is being treated, said the 59-year-old prime minister had undergone five hours of surgery with two teams to treat multiple gunshot wounds.
                  “At this point his condition is stabilised but is truly very serious, he will be in the intensive care unit,” she told reporters.
                  Slovakia PM Fico’s condition still ‘very serious’ after surgery | Reuters


                  9. Longer-Term Perspective on Crime..Violent Crime in the U.S. Since 1990s Big Dowtrend

                  Pew Research

                  https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us


                  10. Choose Not To Be Harmed-The Daily Stoic Blog

                  “Choose not to be harmed — and you won’t feel harmed. Don’t feel harmed — and you haven’t been.”

                  This passage has been highlighted by 11,590 readers in the Kindle edition of Gregory Hays’ translation of Meditations. It’s the most popular quote in the most popular edition (we think that it’s the best edition too).

                  The reason it resonates is that it articulates in simple terms a timely and timeless truth that is as empowering as it is profound: it’s not events themselves that cause our suffering but how we choose to interpret them. Events are objective, our interpretations are not. They are a guess, a story, an opinion as to what’s happened and what it means, and whether or not our actions are governed by those instant interpretations is a good indicator of exactly how stoically we’re behaving.

                  Remember Epictetus’s famous observation that every situation has two handles—or two interpretations—and that we choose which one to grab. We decide what story to tell ourselves. We decide how we react. We decide to feel harmed or to not feel harmed. And once we make that choice–choosing not to be offended, choosing to see an opportunity to practice a virtue–then we really haven’t been harmed.

                  There’s a reason so many people have highlighted that passage. It’s because it’s true.

                  https://dailystoic.com/

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 15 2024

                  1. Mag 7 ETF Re-Balanced to Equal Weight Quarterly …New Highs

                   

                  2. Increase in Capital Spending from Big 3

                  The Big Picture Blog

                  https://ritholtz.com/2024/05/weekend-reads-614/


                  3. The Biggest Capex of All=Global Energy

                  Scott Galloway Prof G Blog

                  https://www.profgalloway.com/big-energy/


                  4. Home Depot Chart

                  A chart to watch regarding rates, inflation and consumer spending. Home Depot -17% correction, 3rd pullback to 200-day


                  5. Gas Prices Down 3 Weeks in a Row Going into Summer Season

                  Advisor Perspectives Blog by Jennifer Nash

                  Gas prices are down for a third straight week. As of May 13th, the price of regular and premium gas fell 3 and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for regular at $5.25 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $3.05.

                  Currently, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stands at $3.61 with premium gasoline averaging $4.51 per gallon. One year ago, regular gas was priced at $3.54 per gallon, while premium gas was at $4.36 per gallon.

                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/05/14/gasoline-prices-down-for-3rd-straight-week


                  6. U.S. Consumer Bankruptcies at Lows

                  Wolf Street Bankruptcies continue to scrape along the historic bottom, with just 121,000 consumers with bankruptcies in Q1, compared to the already low levels of the Good Times of around 200,000:

                  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/14/household-debt-delinquencies-collections-and-bankruptcies-the-free-money-era-is-over-for-our-not-so-drunken-sailors/


                  7. NATO Wargames and Increased Military Spending

                  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13415427/Europe-gears-war-Nukes-Russias-doorstep-conscription-18-arms-factories-whirring-life-continent-faces-doomsday-WW3-scenario.html


                  8. Winning States from the Inflation Reduction Act

                  Barrons By Joe Light

                  https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-biden-poll-election-2024-news-98d4da11?mod=past_editions


                  9. Bringing the Multi-Level Marketing Model to Day Trading


                  10. Why We Love Music

                  Greater Good Magazine
                  Researchers are discovering how music affects the brain, helping us to make sense of its real emotional and social power.

                  BY JILL SUTTIE

                  I still remember when I first heard the song by Peter Gabriel, “Solsbury Hill.” Something about that song—the lyrics, the melody, the unusual 7/4 time signature—gave me chills. Even now, years later, it still can make me cry.

                  Who among us doesn’t have a similar story about a song that touched us? Whether attending a concert, listening to the radio, or singing in the shower, there’s something about music that can fill us with emotion, from joy to sadness.

                  Music impacts us in ways that other sounds don’t, and for years now, scientists have been wondering why. Now they are finally beginning to find some answers. Using fMRI technology, they’re discovering why music can inspire such strong feelings and bind us so tightly to other people.
                  “Music affects deep emotional centers in the brain, “ says Valorie Salimpoor, a neuroscientist at McGill University who studies the brain on music. “A single sound tone is not really pleasurable
                  in itself; but if these sounds are organized over time in some sort of arrangement, it’s amazingly powerful.”

                  How music makes the brain happy
                  How powerful? In one of her studies, she and her colleagues hooked up participants to an fMRI machine and recorded their brain activity as they listened to a favorite piece of music. During peak emotional moments in the songs identified by the listeners, dopamine was released in the nucleus accumbens, a structure deep within the older part of our human brain.
                  “That’s a big deal, because dopamine is released with biological rewards, like eating and sex, for example,” says Salimpoor. “It’s also released with drugs that are very powerful and addictive, like cocaine or amphetamines.”

                  There’s another part of the brain that seeps dopamine, specifically just before those peak emotional moments in a song: the caudate nucleus, which is involved in the anticipation of pleasure. Presumably, the anticipatory pleasure comes from familiarity with the song—you have a memory of the song you enjoyed in the past embedded in your brain, and you anticipate the high points that are coming. This pairing of anticipation and pleasure is a potent combination, one that suggests we are biologically-driven to listen to music we like.

                  But what happens in our brains when we like something we haven’t heard before? To find out, Salimpoor again hooked up people to fMRI machines. But this time she had participants listen to unfamiliar songs, and she gave them some money, instructing them to spend it on any music they liked.
                  When analyzing the brain scans of the participants, she foundthat when they enjoyed a new song enough to buy it, dopamine was again released in the nucleus accumbens. But, she also found increased interaction between the nucleus accumbens and higher, cortical structures of the brain involved in pattern recognition, musical memory, and emotional processing.

                  This finding suggested to her that when people listen to unfamiliar music, their brains process the sounds through memory circuits, searching for recognizable patterns to help them make predictions about where the song is heading. If music is too foreign-sounding, it will be hard to anticipate the song’s structure, and people won’t like it—meaning, no dopamine hit. But, if the music has some recognizable features—maybe a familiar beat or melodic structure—people will more likely be able to anticipate the song’s emotional peaks and enjoy it more. The dopamine hit comes from having their predictions confirmed—or violated slightly, in intriguing ways.

                  “It’s kind of like a roller coaster ride,” she says, “where you know what’s going to happen, but you can still be pleasantly surprised and enjoy it.”

                  Salimpoor believes this combination of anticipation and intense emotional release may explain why people love music so much, yet have such diverse tastes in music—one’s taste in music is dependent on the variety of musical sounds and patterns heard and stored in the brain over the course of a lifetime. It’s why pop songs are, well, popular—their melodic structures and rhythms are fairly predictable, even when the song is unfamiliar—and why jazz, with its complicated melodies and rhythms, is more an acquired taste. On the other hand, people tend to tire of pop music more readily than they do of jazz, for the same reason—it can become too predictable.

                  Her findings also explain why people can hear the same song over and over again and still enjoy it. The emotional hit off of a familiar piece of music can be so intense, in fact, that it’s easily re-stimulated even years later.

                  “If I asked you to tell me a memory from high school, you would be able to tell me a memory,” says Salimpoor. “But, if you listened to a piece of music from high school, you would actually feel the emotions.”

                  Read Full Article
                  https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/why_we_love_music

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 14 2024

                  1. Gamestop +240% One-Month

                  Dave Lutz Jones Trading KITTY ROARS– Wall Street is feeling meme stock déjà vu.  An army of small investors this week have been driving up the price of GameStop, the video game retailer whose enormous 2021 rally led to fame for the stock’s chief social-media savvy booster (Keith Gill, known as Roaring Kitty), a Netflix series and a movie, a congressional hearing, an investigation by securities regulators — and steep losses for those who mistimed the stock’s rapid rise and fall.


                  2. List of Short Squeeze Candidates

                  J.C. Parets All Star Charts

                  https://allstarcharts.com/about/jc-parets


                  3. Blackrock 60/40 No New Highs Yet


                  4. Utilities +19% in 3 Months


                  5. Another U.S. Dominance Chart


                  6. Wind and Solar Scaled Up Fast

                  https://www.carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar-are-fastest-growing-electricity-sources-in-history


                  7. 40% of Homes Mortgage Free

                  The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is weaker because a rising share of US homes don’t have a mortgage, and about half of all mortgages have an interest rate locked-in below 4%, see charts below.

                  Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner


                  8. No Shock with Rates Higher and Post-Covid Boom Hangover….Second Home Sales at 6-Year Low


                  9. The Economics of $15 Salad….Sweetgreen in Red


                  10. Absenteeism Chicago Teachers

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 13 2024

                  1. Sixth Consecutive Quarters of Outperformance by Magnificent 7


                  2. Has Rate Volatility Peaked?  Above my Pay Grade but Interesting.

                  From the Market Ear Blog

                  https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


                  3. Stock Volatility and Presidential Elections

                  The Daily Shot Brief

                  https://dailyshotbrief.com/


                  4. Emerging Market Small Cap New Highs


                  5. Charger Companies Competing with Tesla -90+% from Highs


                  6. Single Stock ETFs ..7 of Top 10…TSLA and NVDA Related

                  https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/most-investors-single-stock-etfs-are-best-left-alone


                  7. Online Groceries Dominated by Whales-Walmart and Amazon.

                  Below is a ranking of the top 10 qcommerce players that U.S. online shoppers have ordered products from in the past year.

                  https://ecommercedb.com/insights/quick-commerce-trends-in-the-u-s/3945


                  8. China Overtakes U.S. as Largest Coffee Shop Market.  Luckin and Cotti Open 11,000 Outlets vs. Starbucks 785

                  World Coffee Portal. 
                  China leads significant coffee shop growth across East Asia -China has overtaken the US as the largest branded coffee shop market in the world by outlets, growing 58% over the last 12 months to reach 49,691 outlets. Growth was led by the rapid expansion of small store format and delivery focused Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee, which added 5,059 and 6,004 net new stores respectively. Starbucks opened net 785 outlets in China during the period and is the second largest branded coffee operator in the country by outlets.  
                  China is the fastest growing market in East Asia ahead of Malaysia (28%) and the Philippines (15.3%). Overall, six of the largest 10 markets by outlets achieved double-digit outlet growth over the last 12 months.

                  https://www.worldcoffeeportal.com/Latest/News/2023/December/East-Asia-branded-coffee-shop-market-booms-as-Chin


                  9. CHOP restored eyesight for two children with one injection. It’s one more step for gene editing using CRISPR.

                  By Abraham Gutman-Philly Inquirer

                  The 10-year-old and 14-year-old patients had their eyesight improved about 10- to 100-fold after a single injection to their retina.
                  A new study from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia published Monday in the New England Journal of Medicine shows that gene editing in the eyes of children can restore vision safely.Patrick Sison / AP

                  Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia physicians restored eyesight in two children by performing a gene therapy technique entirely inside their eyes to correct a genetic mutation causing blindness, a first-of-its-kind treatment for kids.

                  The 10-year-old and 14-year-old patients had their eyesight improved about 10- to 100-fold after a single injection to their retina, the area in the back of the eye that converts light into electric signals that the brain can process.The procedure is known as gene editing, a type of therapy used to correct a deficiency in a person’s DNA causing disease. It is typically performed outside of the body by taking cells out and then transplanting them again after the genetic correction.

                  The two children were part of a clinical trial, involving hospitals in five cities, that also included 12 adults. All of the patients had Leber Congenital Amaurosis, a common cause of blindness in children. The results of the clinical trial were published Monday in the New England Journal of Medicine.

                  “It’s the first time that gene editing has been used in the eyes of children, and proved safe and successful,” said Tomas Aleman, a retina specialist at CHOP and one of the study’s authors.
                  The study focused on the safety of the procedure, finding the gene-editing injection to the eye to be safe. But researchers also saw vision improvement in half of the patients, including the two children treated at CHOP.

                  The children still did not leave the hospital with 20/20 eyesight, said Aleman, who is also a professor at Penn Medicine. He hopes that delivering the treatment to children when they are younger will lead to greater improvement in eyesight.
                  The study is part of an ongoing collaboration that includes CHOP, University of Pennsylvania’s Perelman School of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Oregon Health and Science
                  University, and the University of Michigan.The research was funded by Editas Medicine, Inc., a Cambridge, Mass.-based gene therapy company.

                  Spell checking
                  Gene therapy fixes errors in the body’s genetic code using an approach analogous to editing a text, said Eric Kmiec, executive director and chief scientific officer of ChristianaCare’s Gene Editing Institute, which was not involved in the study.

                  A deficiency in a gene is like a misspelled word.Gene therapies a decade ago could only fix the error by injecting corrected DNA next to it within the cell, like striking out a word and writing it the right way by its side. The newer generation of therapies instead fix the misspelling itself using a technology called CRISPR.

                  Physicians most often apply gene therapy by taking cells out of the body, fixing the genetic error, and then transplanting the cells back into the patient. That’s how CRISPR works to cure sickle cell disease: Bone marrow cells are corrected to produce red blood cells in the right shape, and are returned to the body where they multiply.That approach has a few problems, Kmiec said. The body can reject the corrected cells like any transplantation. And cells in the nervous system don’t multiply.

                  These problems have led scientists to work on ways to fix the mutations in cells while they are inside the body. Kmiec’s research focuses on doing that with cancerous tumors. The CHOP team is focusing on editing genes in the eye.“This is remarkable right? You can correct a mutation in the human gene in the body,” Kmiec said.

                  https://www.inquirer.com/health/crispr-gene-editing-chop-blindness-20240506.html


                  10. Harvard professor who teaches a class on happiness: The happiest people balance and prioritize 3 things

                  Renée Onque@IAMRENEEONQUE  Social scientist Arthur C. Brooks, who teaches a happiness course at Harvard University, has been searching for the answers about what it means to be happy for decades, and he’s arrived at some specific conclusions.

                  In Brooks’ recent book with Oprah Winfrey, the pair explain that your goal in life should not be to attain happiness, but to constantly strive for “happierness.” Brooks often emphasizes that happiness is not a destination, but a direction — something that you should aim to increase without an end goal in mind.
                  “It’s not just, ‘Go get happier.’ That’s too general,” Brooks said on a new episode of the “Ten Percent Happier with Dan Harris” podcast. “I talk about the sub-parts, the macronutrients of happiness.”

                  “When I meet somebody, I can figure out pretty quickly where their ‘diet’ is not up to snuff, where they’re lacking in their macronutrients of happiness and we can work on the subdimensions,” he added.

                  The happiest people “enjoy their lives. They get a lot of satisfaction in their activities and they have a sense of meaning about why they’re alive,” Brooks said on the podcast. “These are the protein, carbohydrates and fat of happiness.”

                  The 3 ‘macronutrients of happiness’

                  1. Enjoyment
                  2. Satisfaction
                  3. Purpose

                  Enjoyment
                  People often assume that enjoyment is simply pleasure, Brooks said, which isn’t an accurate way to think of it. Constantly chasing purely pleasurable experiences “is a terrible way to live a fulfilling life,” he said.
                  “What we need to do, by the way is not to get rid of the sources of pleasure, but to add two things that will make them more human.”
                  You can experience enjoyment when you take a source of pleasure and add people and memory to the mix, Brooks said: “If you’re doing something that’s pleasurable and can be addictive [and] you don’t do it alone, then you can get enjoyment which is a source of actual authentic and enduring happiness.”
                  There are experiences that you can enjoy solo like reading a book, meditating or listening to music, but he suggested engaging in social activities like going out for drinks or watching funny videos on social media with people you enjoy spending time with.

                  Satisfaction
                  “Satisfaction is the joy, the reward, that you get after you struggle for something,” Brooks said. “We as humans, we need to struggle, we need to strive, we need to sacrifice, we even need pain in our lives, because that’s actually how we earn something.”
                  When you feel like something you have is something you’ve earned, it makes it much more valuable to you in the end, he said.
                  Brooks shared an analogy from his father-in-law that illustrates the concept of satisfaction: “The reason people aren’t as happy as they should be is because they don’t enjoy their dinner,” he said. “Because they’re never hungry.”
                  He also used the example of how his students at Harvard wouldn’t be as satisfied by acing a test if they cheated, compared to if they worked really hard to study for the exam. “We want to defer our gratification for real rewards,” he explained.

                  Purpose
                  Purpose is the feeling that your life has a sense of meaning, Brooks said. Of all three “macronutrients,” purpose is the one that you need to experience the most.
                  Brooks said that there are three sub-parts to meaning:

                  • Coherence: Why do things happen the way they do?
                  • Purpose: Why is my life unfolding the way it is? What are my goals, and what’s my direction?
                  • Significance: Why does it matter that I am alive?

                  And there aren’t right answers to these questions, he said, because the answers are subjective for everyone. The only wrong answers to these questions are no answers, “which is not failure. It’s actually a really good outcome if you fail because you know what to start looking for,” Brooks said.
                  “It takes a lot of work” to find your purpose, he added, but it’s really important to think about it and have a sense of direction.

                  https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/20/arthur-c-brooks-the-3-macronutrients-of-happiness.html

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 10 2024 

                  1. Sell Side Consensus Indicator Neutral

                  There is not “extreme bullishness” from Wall Street.


                  2. U.S. Strong Profit Margins vs. International

                  The Daily Shot Brief Equities: The ability of US firms to maintain strong margins continues to exceed expectations.

                  Source: Deutsche Bank Research


                  3. Summertime Historical Returns

                  Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

                  https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


                  4. Post Covid Vaccine Healthcare Stocks

                  From Abnormal Returns Blog  www.abnormalreturns.com


                  5. Bitcoin ETF Price vs. Flows

                  Marketwatch By Frances Yue  
                  Last week, bitcoin’s BTCUSD, 0.46% price rose despite a net outflow of $468 million from bitcoin ETFs, according to data from crypto market maker Wintermute. And in the first three days of this week, bitcoin fell roughly 3%, even though the ETFs saw an aggregate inflow of about $192 million. Bitcoin was trading at around $62,390 as of Thursday afternoon — up 48.5% year to date, but down more than 15% from its all-time high of $73,798 reached in March, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
                  “The varied demand for bitcoin suggests that the market is maturing and may not necessarily remain strongly correlated with ETF flows in the future,” analysts at Wintermute’s OTC desk wrote in a recent note.  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-etfs-helped-drive-the-cryptos-price-higher-that-may-no-longer-be-the-case-581f4bb2?mod=home-page

                  IBIT below highs


                  6. Airbnb -13% Correction

                  ABNB approaching 200-day


                  7. New Home Construction Hasn’t Kept Pace

                  Capital Group, Martin Jacobs

                  https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/us-housing-underappreciated-growth-market.html?sfid=892031133&cid=81173592&et_cid=81173592&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=btn-LP-A1cta-advisor


                  8. Rent Inflation Should Continue to Fall

                  Nasdaq Dorsey Wright New rents inflation peaked two years ago, but CPI rent inflation is a year behind
                  The story is similar in housing. New rent inflation (looking just at new lease prices each quarter) peaked in Q2 2022 at 12% YoY, but has since fallen to 0.4% p.a. (chart below, blue line).
                  But the CPI measure of rents (chart below, purple line) has been much slower to fall. That’s partly because it’s a sample of all rents – not just newly signed or renewed leases.
                  The short story here though, is that rents also seem more likely to fall in the future too.


                  9. US cities drawing more millionaires with lower taxes, cheaper homes, and shorter commutes

                  Scottsdale, Arizona. 

                  • Consulting firm Henley & Partners identified 3 US cities with huge potential for wealth growth.
                  • They have faster growth in millionaire residents, said Henley, which advises the wealthy on moving. 
                  • Scottsdale, Palm Beach, and Greenwich draw high-net-worth people leaving New York and California. 

                  New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago may no longer hold the same sway for millionaires and billionaires anymore, according to consulting firm Henley & Partners.
                  Instead a “millionaire remix” is underway, according to the firm, in which increasing numbers of wealthy people are choosing destinations farther away from the economic centers that once dominated.

                  “Cities such as Austin, Miami, and Scottsdale are gaining residents, while traditional hubs such as Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago experience modest declines,” wrote Henley & Partners managing partner Mehdi Kadiri.

                  Henley & Partners, a London-based firm that advises wealthy people on moving and citizenship, tracks the movements of high-net-worth individuals using data from wealth intelligence firm New World Wealth.

                  Alongside its new ranking of the world’s wealthiest cities — ones with the most millionaire and billionaire residents — Henley & Partners also highlighted smaller spots poised for significant wealth growth in 2024 and beyond.

                  Take Scottsdale, Arizona, a city just outside Phoenix, prized for its resort-like homes and amenities, including golf courses, which come at a fraction of the cost of nearby California.

                  Two other cities with fast-growing wealthy populations — Palm Beach, Florida, and the posh Connecticut suburbs of Greenwich and Darien — attract finance types. Lower taxes and quality-of-life improvements may also motivate high-net-worth individuals to move.

                  The numbers of wealthy residents in these cities might be smaller than in the major hubs, but their rate of growth is much higher. New York, for example, has 349,500 millionaires, according to Henley & Partners, while Scottsdale only has 14,500. However, the number of millionaires in Scottsdale grew 102% from 2013 to 2023, while New York’s millionaire population went up 48% over the same period.

                  https://www.businessinsider.com/us-cities-fastest-growing-millionaire-population-taxes-cost-of-living-2024-5


                  10. An art market full of cracks is about to face a $1 billion test

                  Robert Frank@ROBTFRANK

                  The key May art sales at major auction houses are expected to be down from last year, as wealthy buyers and sellers take a breather from the frenzied prices of 2021 and 2022.

                  Art auction sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips over the next two weeks are expected to total $1.2 billion, down 18% from a year ago and nearly half the total for the May 2022 sales, according to ArtTactic.

                  It extends a recent decline for the art market from its post-Covid peak, when cheap money, a booming stock market and fiscal stimulus saw record sales. Last year, global auctions of fine art fell 27% from 2022 — the art market’s first contraction since the start of the pandemic in 2020 — and the average price dropped 32%, marking the biggest decline in seven years, according to ArtTactic.

                  During the first quarter of this year, sales in the contemporary and postwar category — the big money maker and growth driver for the art market in recent years — plunged 48%, according to ArtTactic.

                  Total auction sales and lots sold 2019–2023

                  The auction houses say demand from buyers remains strong. The problem, they say, is supply, as collectors hold back on selling their trophies for a better market environment. This spring, there are also no big single-owner collections up for sale, like the Macklowe Collection or Paul Allen Collections that helped power sales in previous years.

                  “We’re seeing what people perceive as a smaller offering this season,” said Brooke Lampley, global chairman and head of global fine art at Sotheby’s. “The proof is in the pudding. It’s the buyers showing up and what the work will sell for that will define our perception of the art market right now. And I expect the results to be strong.”

                  https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/art-sales-down-collectors-pull-back.html

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 09 2024

                  1. For All The Young People …Ben Carlson on Buying that $70,000 Truck

                  A Wealth of Common Sense Blog

                  Now let’s do the personal finance thing and look at how much these savings could be worth over the long haul.

                  Let’s say you say just 75% of the monthly savings so you can blow the rest of the money on anything else you’d like.

                  Here’s what it looks like if you bank those savings in the stock market every year for 30 years and earn 7% on your investments:

                  https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/02/how-much-is-that-70000-truck-costing-you/


                  2. The Size of Aggregate Earnings Beat Q1 2024 was Best in 3 Years

                  From UNIO Capital

                  https://uniocapital.com/


                  3. Stock Buybacks About to Break-Out to New Highs


                  4. Private Equity Sitting on $3.2 Trillion of “Unexited” Companies.

                  Bloomberg
                  But the revival hasn’t come fast enough: Behind the scenes, the private equity shops saddled with bulging portfolios — and the banks and exchanges that make millions helping companies go public — are still scrambling to come up with alternative exit strategies.

                  Some are turning to private sales of shares, while others are establishing new semi-public exchanges to tempt companies to market. Inside at least one buyout firm, executives want to rejig long-accepted investment frameworks to address the new reality.

                  The reasons: A return to true health in the IPO pipeline could take until next year, and a record $3.2 trillion was tied up in aging, closely held companies at the end of 2023, Preqin data found. That’s a problem for private equity, which relies on the cycle of raising money to make acquisitions, exiting via a sale or IPO and then returning money to investors — before ultimately asking for more funds to do it all again.

                  By Bailey Lipschultz, Swetha Gopinath, and Vinicy Chan 
                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/buyout-firms-seek-alternatives-to-going-public-in-weak-ipo-market?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


                  5. UBER -22% from Highs


                  6. FXI Large Cap China ETF +15% 2024 But Trend Still Down Versus vs. FRDM

                  Large Cap China vs. FRDM (emerging minus china and other freedom lacking markets)


                  7. 10-Year Treasury Yield Down From Fed Meeting….4.70 to 4.50


                  8. Tech Jobs Leaving California for Texas

                  Torsten Slok Apollo
                  The share of tech jobs in California has been declining and the share of tech jobs in Texas has been rising, see chart below.


                  9. Coindesk….Nearly All FTX Creditors Will Get 118% of Their Funds Back in Cash, Estate Says in New Plan

                  The new reorganization plan must first be approved by a Delaware bankruptcy court.  By Cheyenne Ligon

                  Bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX has proposed a new reorganization plan that would see a whopping 98% of its creditors get back 118% of their claims – in cash – within 60 days of court approval, according to new documents filed Tuesday evening.

                  Under the plan, other non-governmental creditors would get back 100% of their claims plus up to 9% interest to compensate them “for the time value of their investments.” The arrangement is still subject to approval by the Delaware bankruptcy court overseeing the bankruptcy case.

                  The proposed payouts are higher than earlier estimates from the FTX estate, which said in October it expected to pay back only 90% of customer funds. In January, current FTX CEO John Jay Ray III revised that estimate, telling the court he expected to be able to pay customers back in full.

                  Though the crypto market has rebounded since FTX’s collapse and subsequent bankruptcy – irking many of FTX’s customers, who have missed out on the opportunity to profit from the run-up in crypto prices while their funds are stuck in bankruptcy limbo – the estate denies that the market recovery is the driving force behind its massive pile of cash.

                  In a Tuesday press release, the FTX estate said it expects to have between $14.5 and $16.3 billion in cash available for distribution by the time a plan is approved by a Delaware bankruptcy court – the result of a year-and-a-half of scraping together the company’s scattered assets around the world and liquidating them.

                  “As previously disclosed, FTX.com had a massive shortfall at the time of the Chapter 11 filing in November 2022 – holding only 0.1% of the Bitcon and only 1.2% of the Ethereum customers believed it held,” the press release stated. “Accordingly, Debtors have not been able to benefit from the appreciation of these missing tokens during these Chapter 11 cases.”

                  Other sources of value, including investments made by FTX and Alameda Research – such as its 8% stake in AI startup Anthropic, which was sold piecemeal to institutional investors for $884 million in March – have been liquidated to generate cash to pay back the claims.

                  FTX’s new reorganization plan would also settle a host of claims from regulators and government agencies, including the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

                  The IRS agreed to resolve its $24 billion in claims in return for a $200 million cash payment and a $685 million subordinated claim that will only be paid out after all creditors and other governmental entities.

                  The CFTC and other unnamed governmental claimants agreed to subordinate their claims as long as FTX users and investors were paid in full with interest. There are also plans for a special fund created to make “supplemental restitution” to certain customers and creditors, though the details of this agreement have not been finalized, according to the press release.

                  A hearing to discuss the proposed plan is scheduled for June. The specter of Sam Bankman-Fried

                  Former FTX CEO and convicted fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried previously attempted to use the estate’s ability to pay back customers in full as evidence that the collapse of his exchange had “zero” harm to its customers.

                  Before his sentencing in March, Bankman-Fried’s lawyers argued that their client should receive a light sentence, in part because customers would get all their money back.

                  Ray, along with dozens of FTX creditors, wrote to the court arguing that the estate’s ability to claw together enough to money pay back his victims – the result of “tens of thousands of hours … spent digging through the rubble of Mr. Bankman-Fried’s sprawling criminal enterprise to unearth every possible dollar, token or other asset” – doesn’t mean his conduct wasn’t criminal.


                  Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison. He plans to appeal his sentence and conviction.

                  https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/05/08/nearly-all-ftx-creditors-will-get-118-of-their-funds-back-in-cash-estate-says-in-new-plan/


                  10. Jerry Seinfeld Just Said Lifelong Success, Happiness, and Fulfillment Comes Down to Just 2 Words

                  Money, fame, and ‘things’ are great, but to Seinfeld, the pursuit of this matters most.
                  EXPERT OPINION BY JEFF HADEN, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, INC. @JEFF_HADEN
                   
                  Jerry Seinfeld. 
                  The other day, I walked into a room and said to my wife, “You know, we did a really good job on these floors.” Well-fitted, wide-plank oak boards. Artful racking. Smooth, even finish. Laying the floor took considerable time and effort and wasn’t particularly fun, but in that moment all I thought about was how good it looked.
                  And how good that made me feel.
                  I don’t always like doing, but I really like having done, especially if I’ve done well.
                  Which, according to Jerry Seinfeld, is the key to happiness and fulfillment:
                  … the only thing in life that’s really worth having is good skill. Good skill is the greatest possession. The things that money buys are fine. They’re good. I like them. But having a skill….
                  It’s a very Zen Buddhist concept: Pursue mastery. That will fulfill your life. You will feel good.
                  I know a lot of rich people. They don’t feel good, as you think they should and would. They’re miserable. Because, if they don’t master a skill, life is unfulfilling.
                  Granted, those two words — pursue mastery — do sound a little Zen.
                  But not if you unpack it. Imagine you want to achieve, to accomplish, to be something.
                  Say your goal is to build a thriving business. Most people focus on measuring results and outcomes. Want to know your revenue for the month? Easy: Add up your sales. Want to know your safety record for the month? Easy: Add up your recordable accidents.
                  Results, though, are lag metrics. They show what happened — or, in the case of a goal, what you wanted to happen. Lag metrics are easy to set and simple to track. But they’re useless in terms of predicting, much less influencing, the future.
                  That’s where lead metrics come in. Lead metrics are predictive of achieving a long-term goal:

                  • Want to increase revenue? Increase ad spending. Make more sales calls.
                  • Want to improve safety? Require hard hats on the factory floor. Enforce lock-out/tag-out procedures.

                  Seinfeld’s lag metric was to become a successful comedian. Early on, he realized the path to becoming a better comedian was to write better jokes. The performance, the lag metric, was the end product. Good jokes were the foundation. As he recently said, “I have never succeeded at anything that wasn’t my material. Not one time.”
                  Having good jokes meant writing good jokes, every day. Having good jokes meant consistently — relentlessly — pursuing mastery.
                  So he hung a calendar on the wall, and every day, once he had accomplished his lead indicator — writing one new joke every day — he put a red X over that date.
                  As Jerry told Brad Isaac:
                  After a few days, you’ll have a chain. Just keep at it and the chain will grow longer every day. You’ll like seeing that chain, especially when you get a few weeks under your belt.
                  Your only job is to not break the chain.
                  The goal — the lag metric — informs the process for achieving that goal. A lag metric tells you what you want to happen; a lead metric describes how you will get there.
                  That’s the beauty of lead metrics. They’re reasonably predictive. Do the work and you will achieve some level of success.
                  Which makes lead metrics much more important than lag metrics, because doing the work, day after day — pursuing mastery, day after day — is the only way that success will follow.
                  Try it. Pick a goal. Pick a lag metric. Then reverse engineer the lead metrics that will get you there.
                  If you want to hit $30,000 in sales per month, use your current results to determine how many additional leads and sales calls you need to generate and make. Then create a daily process, and commit to checking off the boxes on your calendar.
                  If you want to improve safety, focus on lead metrics that predict success. Mandatory equipment. Refresher training. Even how long it takes a manager to respond to an accident report, since a rapid response indicates a commitment to finding and eliminating root causes. Then track those lead metrics, because they give you a much better chance of hitting your lag metric.
                  Choose lead metrics that predict success, and then track your performance to those metrics — because success is achieved by doing the right things, day after day after day.
                  By pursuing mastery.
                  And while you might not always love the process, you will love the result, especially in terms of how it makes you feel.
                  Because happiness and fulfillment comes not from what you get at the end of the long journey towards mastery… but from how it makes you feel.
                  About yourself.
                  https://www.inc.com/jeff-haden/jerry-seinfeld-just-said-lifelong-success-happiness-fulfillment-comes-down-to-just-2-words.html?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=INC%20-%20This%20Morning%20Newsletter.Newsletter%20-%20Inc%20-%20This%20Morning%205-9-24&leadId=1548979&mkt_tok=NjEwLUxFRS04NzIAAAGS_BvK9IFA6dzPsbaaq72JYu0YQX2eaeKjBoqsuH4c32n0o_oGiSXSaqW3eJLESrxFQxa46JBB9T7Sb6SDn5_7RdtV6u-FSJUJ8qSold74xC0

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 08 2024

                  1. 10-Year “Safe” Treasury Bond on Pace for 3rd Decline in 4 Year

                  @Charlie Bilello
                  @Charlie Bilello The 10-Year Treasury Bond is down 3.6% in 2024, on pace for its 3rd decline in the last 4 years. That hasn’t happened since 1956-59.

                  2. European Financials Break-Out to New Highs

                  UBS numbers kicked Euro financials to new highs 


                  3. European Financials vs. U.S. Regional Banks

                  Since end of 2022 EUFN outperforming regional U.S. banks.


                  4. KWEB China Internet ETF vs. QQQ

                  Follow up to yesterday…KWEB sees first outperformance in years.


                  5. URA-Uranium Break-Out

                  https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/05/03/the-compound-and-friends-55/


                  6. Countries with Highest Crypto Ownership


                  7. Remote Work Move to Small Towns

                  Bloomberg- By Michael Sasso
                  The remote work boom that prompted Americans to flee urban areas for mountain hamlets and seaside towns during the pandemic continued at least through last year, according to University of Virginia demographer Hamilton Lombard. An estimated 291,400 people last year migrated from other areas into America’s small towns and rural areas, which Lombard defines as metropolitan areas with 250,000 people or fewer.

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/record-wave-of-americans-fled-big-cities-for-small-ones-in-2023?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&sref=GGda9y2L


                  8. Share of Income Needed to Cover Housing Higher than 2008 Crisis….2010-2021 Affordable Housing Apex

                  WSJ By Eric Wallerstein

                  https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/rising-stocks-home-prices-young-americans-left-behind-ae941b64


                  9. Americans Local News Moves Online

                  Pew Research


                  10. Six Things You Can Do to Stop Worrying

                  Today
                  Amen Clinic
                  Do you worry too much? Do you fret about every little thing in life? Are you constantly stressed about work, health, finances, and more? Maybe you even worry about your worrying.
                  Some people call this “what if disease” or “worst-case scenario disease,” but it can actually be a sign of a mental health disorder. If chronic worrying is interfering with your daily routine and diminishing your quality of life, it’s time to take action.
                  Are you constantly worried about your work, health, finances, relationship, children, pets, and more? Some people call this “what if disease,” but it can actually be a sign of a mental health disorder.CLICK TO TWEET
                  This blog will introduce you to the consequences of constant worry, what makes some people more prone to worry, and how to stop worrying so you can feel happier.
                  WHAT IS CHRONIC WORRYING?
                  Chronic worry occurs when someone is unable to manage their worries. If you fall into this category, you may find that anxious thoughts tend to loop endlessly in your mind. And these fearful thoughts persist even in the lack of a direct threat.
                  Worriers are often preoccupied with distressing thoughts about a wide range of things, including:

                  • Health and the possibility of getting or being ill
                  • Family issues
                  • Romantic relationships and friendships
                  • Career
                  • Financial issues
                  • World affairs
                  • Other issues

                  When you are constantly fretting about what might go wrong, it can make it very difficult to relax. Chronic stress may lead to hypervigilance, which is being overly aware of your surroundings and potential dangers. You may also have a sense of impending doom, expecting something to go wrong at any moment.
                  It’s important to understand that some anxiety and worry is a good thing. It helps you be prepared.
                  However, chronic worry can be mentally exhausting and physically draining. It is associated with mental health disorders, such as anxiety disorders and obsessive-compulsive disorder. On the physical side, it can lead to muscle tension, a nervous stomach, loose bowels, high blood pressure, increased risk of viral and bacterial infections, and more.
                  WORRYING IN THE BRAIN
                  The brain-imaging work using single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) scans at Amen Clinics shows that people who tend to be worriers often have busy brain. In particular, there is too much activity in an area of the brain called the anterior cingulate gyrus (ACG).
                  Located deep in the middle of the frontal lobes, this fascinating region is involved in shifting your attention from one thought to another and from one activity to another. When there is heightened brain activity here, people tend to get stuck.
                  Often due to low serotonin levels in the brain, overactivity in the ACG is common in people who get locked into negative thoughts or behaviors. They have trouble seeing options in situations and stay focused on those worst-case scenarios.
                  Optimizing this part of the mind involves increasing serotonin levels and brain training techniques to stop getting stuck on worries.
                  6 WAYS TO STOP CHRONIC WORRYING

                  1. Eat foods that increase serotonin levels.

                  Research shows there are two ways that food can increase serotonin levels. First, foods high in simple carbohydrates—such as pastas, potatoes, breads, pastries, pretzels, and popcorn—increase insulin levels.
                  Second, the uptick in insulin raises the amount of L-tryptophan that enters the brain. Tryptophan is a natural amino acid building block for serotonin. With more tryptophan in the brain, more of it is converted to serotonin.
                  The calming effect of serotonin can often be felt in 30 minutes or less by eating these foods. This may be one of the reasons simple carbohydrates are so addictive.
                  Be aware that over time, simple carbohydrates can cause high blood-sugar levels that are associated with brain atrophy and some types of dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease. For a healthier way to boost serotonin, opt for complex carbohydrates, such as sweet potatoes and garbanzo beans.

                  1. Exercise on a regular basis.

                  Physical activity can be helpful in calming worries and increasing cognitive flexibility. Exercise works by increasing brain levels of tryptophan, according to research.
                  In addition, exercise increases your energy levels and may distract you from the worrisome thoughts that tend to loop in your mind. When you find yourself focusing on stressful thoughts, take an exercise break.
                  Go for a brisk walk, do a few dance moves, try a few yoga poses, or engage in some other form of exercise. It can help take your mind off your worries.

                  1. Practice “Thought Stopping.”

                  Whenever you notice thoughts looping or getting stuck in your head, imagine seeing a traffic stop sign in your head and silently saying to yourself, “STOP. THIS IS MY ACG GETTING STUCK!” For some people, the more actively they stop these thoughts, the more control they develop over them.
                  Keep a journal where you note how many times you use thought stopping each day. It’s likely the number of times you’ll need this intervention will decrease as you gain better control.

                  1. Notice when you’re stuck, distract yourself and come back later.

                  A primary way to overcome a busy anterior cingulate gyrus is to notice when you’re stuck on a thought and do something to distract yourself. Becoming aware of circular or looping thoughts is essential to gaining control over them.
                  Distraction is often a very helpful technique. Get up and do something else. For example, try singing your favorite song, do a few stretches, or read an article.

                  1. Think through answers before automatically saying no.

                  As mentioned, many worriers imagine the worst things that can happen. Because of this, when asked to do something, these people have an automatic tendency to say no. Fight this tendency.
                  Before answering questions or responding to requests in a negative way, take a breath and think for a moment. If you automatically envision a bad outcome, practice thinking about a good outcome. Is that good scenario more likely to happen than the bad one? If so, say yes.

                  1. Write out options and solutions when you feel stuck.

                  When you’re stuck on a stressful thought, it is often helpful to write it down. Writing it down helps to get it out of your head. Seeing a thought on paper makes it easier to deal with it in a rational way.
                  When repetitive worries interfere with sleep, keep a pen and paper near your bed to write them out. After you write out a thought that has “gotten stuck,” generate a list of things you can do about it and things you can’t do about it. Practice focusing your energy on the things you can control about a situation and stop dwelling on what you can’t control.

                  https://www.amenclinics.com/blog/6-things-stop-worrying-today/

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 07 2024

                  1. AAPL Bought Back the Equivalent of Boeing Market Cap in One Day

                  @Charlie Bilello
                  @Charlie Bilello Apple is the undisputed king of buybacks. Over the past decade, it has bought back $625 billion in stock. That’s greater than the market cap of 492 companies in the S&P 500.


                  2. Warren Buffett Sold $135B AAPL Stock and Bought T-Bills

                  AAPL still Buffett largest holding by far but….

                  Wolf Street Converting Apple shares to T-bills.

                  While loading up on T-bills – of which the government has been issuing a tsunami on a weekly basis – BRK dumped 13% of its stake in Apple in Q1, or about 116 million shares, after having sold about 10 million shares in the prior quarter. Apple remains BRK’s largest stock position, with a value of $135.4 billion on March 31, according to BRK’s 10-Q filing today.

                  Obviously, Buffett praised Apple and the stock, because BRK was still holding $135.4 billion as of March 31, and he doesn’t want to tank the shares before he can unload more of them.

                  But he did sell Apple, and bought T-bills with the proceeds, instead of other stocks, and that ballooning pile of interest-earning cash became a topic at the shareholder meeting on Saturday, and he was asked why he wasn’t putting this cash to work – though it’s actually working just fine, producing 5%-plus risk free.

                  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/06/buffett-invests-in-t-bills-instead-of-stocks-waits-for-bad-stuff-to-happen-cash-is-king-at-5-plus/

                  AAPL Below 2023 Highs


                  3. Big Tech Has Acquired 870+ Companies


                  4. Tech Returns Post Earnings Beats Q1


                  5. ETF Outflows Excessive in Chinese Tech?

                  From Irrelevant Investor Blog interview with Jeff DeGraff

                  https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/05/03/the-compound-and-friends-55/


                  6. KWEB Chinese Internet ETF Beating QQQ YTD

                  50day thru 200 day to upside….+17% year to date


                  7. Total Sovereign and Corporate Debt Hits $100 Trillion Mark


                  8. Russia’s military is so hard up for manpower that it now pays more than the oil and gas sector-Business Insider

                  Huileng Tan 

                  • Russia has a manpower crunch because of its war with Ukraine.
                  • Russia’s military is paying more in sign-on bonuses and salaries than the oil and gas sector.
                  • Russia’s oil and gas revenues have been keeping its war chest filled.

                  Russia is facing a labor crisis as its war with Ukraine siphons manpower away from the country’s economy.

                  The manpower crunch has gotten so bad that the Russian military is now offering sign-on bonuses and salaries that are so competitive that even the country’s lucrative oil and gas industry isn’t keeping up, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

                  Russia’s oil and gas sector has been paying wages that are at least two-thirds higher than the national average wage since 2017, per Bloomberg calculations based on official data.
                  That’s no longer the case.

                  In January and February, workers in Russia’s oil and gas sector took home about 125,200 rubles, or $1,370, in monthly nominal salary, per the media outlet.

                  But the Russian army is now offering incentives to contract soldiers, including a nationwide sign-on bonus of 195,000 rubles, according to a Russian government portal. Each region in the country also offers an additional one-time payment of up to 1 million rubles, per Bloomberg.

                  The salary of a contract soldier starts at 210,000 rubles per month.

                  https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-manpower-crunch-military-bonus-pay-salary-oil-gas-2024-5


                  9. The U.S. Needs Babies

                  The Daily Shot Brief Food for Thought: US births hit a multi-decade low.

                  Source: @jessicanix_, @business 
                   https://dailyshotbrief.com


                  10. How to Foster and Sustain Team Motivation 

                  Psychology Today Harness the power of psychological needs within your team

                  Marylène Gagné Ph.D.
                  THE BASICS

                  KEY POINTS

                  • Enhancing your teammates’ psychological needs promotes better team motivation. 
                  • Monitor how leadership styles, reward systems, and external pressures affect your team’s motivation. 
                  • Better support from your external environment may be required for healthy internal team motivation.

                  Do you belong to a work or sports team? Do the members of your team share the same motivationor goals or are they misaligned? What could you do to get everyone in your team to be more aligned and adopt the right type of motivation that will lead your team to succeed?
                  We often hear about how team leaders and organisations should structure, lead, and reward teams for them to be effective. But have we paid enough attention to what team members can contribute to their own internal team dynamics?
                  I recently co-authored an article with Simon Grenier from the Université de Montréal and Thomas O’Neill from the University of Calgary that might help you. In it, we present a model, based on self-determination theory, from which we can derive a simple key strategy to foster healthy team motivation: Ensuring the satisfaction of every team member’s psychological needs. Here’s how it works:

                  Supporting Psychological Needs

                  As a team member, you can help foster high autonomous team motivation(that is, motivation based on meaning and enjoyment toward team activities) by supporting your teammates’ needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness. For example, you can provide your teammates with choices and constructive feedback, and promote the inclusion of all points of view. If enough teammates adopt these supportive behaviors, it will create a virtuous cycle of interactions that leads your team to develop norms of support over time.
                  Easier said than done right? Yes. What do you need for supportive norms to develop? First, you must consider the initial motivation of team members at a team’s inception or during the formative phase where team members get to know each other and learn about what they will work on together. If team members are primarily motivated by rewards or status (i.e., controlled motivation), they are less likely to support the needs of their teammates. If they are motivated by meaning and enjoyment, they are more likely to support their teammates’ needs. Selecting team members with the right motivation or fostering that initial motivation through good task design and leadershipcan make a difference.
                  Once the cogs are in motion within the team, here is what is likely to happen. First, team members’ motivations are likely to become more similar over time. If you satisfy needs, individual motivations are likely to converge towards becoming more autonomous. In other words, when members’ needs are supported, they are more likely to internalize team goals and focus on their importance and on enjoying the process of working on goal accomplishment. If you thwart needs, individual motivations are likely to converge toward becoming more controlled or losing motivation altogether.
                  Second, members will forge an identity to the team if autonomous motivation is cultivated. In other words, when members pursue team goals out of meaning and enjoyment, they are likely to make their team an important aspect of their self-identity, which in turn further fosters the endorsement of team norms and goals.
                  Third, working for the same reasons (i.e., motivations) and sharing a common identity is likely to facilitate both explicit and implicit coordination that is essential to team performance. Explicit coordination includes discussing and agreeing on strategies and logistics, while implicit coordination involves monitoring each other and adapting to others’ behaviors without explicit communication (think of a flock of birds or a school of fish moving in unison).
                  Finally, look at how the external context of a team is likely to influence internal collective motivation. Is your team under the leadership of a tyrant leader who can undo any effort at supporting needs within your team or worse, serves as a role model for team members to thwart each other’s psychological needs? Is your team contingently rewarded in a way that primarily encourages controlled forms of motivation within your team? Is your team under high pressure or is it struggling to survive? These can negatively impact both the motivation of team members and your team’s internal support dynamics. Advocating for better external support from your external environment (e.g., your organization) might be required to ensure you can maintain healthy internal team motivation. 
                  This post was co-authored with Simon Grenier from the Université de Montréal.
                   https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/getting-up-on-monday-morning/202405/how-to-foster-and-sustain-team-motivation

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 06 2024

                  1. Warren Buffett vs. S&P 25 Year Chart

                  Slight lag vs. S&P

                  From Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com


                  2. History of Returns Post 5 Months of Gains


                  3. Returns During Fed Pause Phases

                  From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading
                  Stock performance is typically varied during the pauses, but positive on average, Bloomberg notes.


                  4. PARA Takeover Bids…Stocks Still Negative YTD 2024


                  5. Starbucks Stock Now Negative 5-Year Return


                  6. Defensive Utility Sector +5% One Month

                  XLU 50day thru 200day to upside beginning of April


                  7. Gold vs. Yen

                  Gold’s Rise Against the Yen

                  Source: Bloomberg   From Zerohedge www.zerohedge.com


                  8. Active Managed ETF Growth

                  Active ETFs Activate:  On the other hand, active ETFs have taken off. Goes to show, you can either bemoan and suffer from a new dynamic such as the rise of passive investing and ETFs, or ride that trend.

                  Source: mahmood noorani


                  9. Russian energy giant Gazprom reported its first annual loss in 24 years amid Western sanctions

                  Business Insider
                  A sign advertises Russia’s natural gas giant Gazprom, in Moscow, Russia. Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP

                  • Russian energy giant Gazprom posted its first annual loss since 1999.
                  • The West’s ban on Russia’s energy exports, combined with macro factors, dragged profits.
                  • The oil company also projected fewer investments for 2024. 

                  Russian energy producer Gazprom Group reported its first annual loss in 24 years, with restricted energy flows to Europe a leading factor in dragging down earnings. 
                  Gazprom, which is majority-owned by the Russian government, saw a net loss of 629 billion rubles, equivalent to about $6.84 billion last year, marking a sharp drop from 1.23 trillion rubles in 2022, according to an earnings report published Thursday and first reported by Bloomberg. 
                  It marks the first annual net loss for the energy giant since 1999, largely due to restricted flows to Europe and lower fuel prices following the West’s sanctions over Moscow’s war against Ukraine. 
                  The market reacted by sparking a 4.4% drop in the company’s share price, the largest decline in more than a year. 
                  Gazprom’s report also revealed a 40% drop in gas revenue to 4.88 trillion rubles ($52.6 billion USD). International Energy Agency data indicates that gas flows to Europe hit their lowest levels since the early 1970s. 
                  The financial loss was also driven by broader energy market factors, including plunging gas prices, lackluster demand, and overflowing inventories.
                  Meanwhile, Gazprom has outlined investments totaling 2.57 trillion rubles for this year, indicating a reduction of nearly 16% compared to its projections for 2023.
                  Once a booming market for Russia’s gas exports, Europe has placed hefty restrictions on the country’s energy outflows to the continent since the war in Ukraine started. Russia has managed to reroute much of its energy flows to other countries such as China and India.
                  https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-gas-energy-flows-gazprom-sanctions-ukraine-war-putin-2024-5?_gl=1*eglwm7*_ga*MTcwNTA0MjU4My4xNjYxMzU3MTY0*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxNDY3NTUxMS4xMDUuMS4xNzE0Njc3OTQxLjYwLjAuMA..


                  10. Warren Buffett’s warning about AI 🧐

                  SAM RO, CFA
                  The See’s Candies exhibit at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2024 annual meeting. (Source: Sam Ro)
                  OMAHA, Neb. — Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has mixed feelings about artificial intelligence (AI).

                  “It has enormous potential for good and enormous potential for harm,“ Buffett said at Berkshire’s annual shareholders meeting on Saturday.
                  He shared a personal experience with AI that had him shook.
                  “Fairly recently, I saw an image in front of my screen,” he said. “It was me, and it was my voice and wearing the kind of clothes I wear. My wife or my daughter wouldn’t have been able to detect any difference. And it was delivering a message that in no way it came from me.”
                  He explained: “When you think about the potential for scamming people… Scamming has always been part of the American scene. If I was interested in investing in scamming— it’s gonna be the growth industry of all time.”

                  Warren Buffett speaks at the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting. (Source: CNBC)
                  Buffett drew comparisons to the emergence of nuclear weapons.

                  “We let the genie out of the bottle when we developed nuclear weapons, and that genie has been doing some terrible things,“ he said. “The power of that genie scares the hell out of me. And I don’t know of any way to get the genie back in the bottle. And AI is somewhat similar. It’s part of the way out of the bottle.”
                  Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger bobble heads. (Source: Sam Ro)

                  In the context of investing, analysts have mostly spoken bullishly about AI thanks to the potential for improving productivity across many sectors. TKer has written about this narrative here, here, and here.
                  Asked later about how Berkshire’s own businesses could be disrupted by AI, Buffett noted the technology would affect “anything that’s labor sensitive” and that for workers it could “create an enormous amount of leisure time.”

                  Greg Abel, vice chairman of Berkshire’s non-insurance businesses, added that “we’re in the early innings” of understanding the impact.

                  Buffett has taken this tone before 👂

                  Buffett, arguably the most successful stock market investor in history, is well-known for his persistent bullish long-term view of the U.S. economy and stock market.
                  “I understand the United States’ rules, weaknesses, strengths,” Buffett said on Saturday. “I don’t have the same feeling generally around the world. And the lucky thing is that I don’t have to.”
                  But he’s no stranger to expressing caution on matters with significant downside risks — especially in regards to technology.

                  For example, Buffett has been vocal about his concerns about cyber attacks. Here’s some language I shared in the March 5, 2023 issue of TKer:

                  “There is, however, one clear, present and enduring danger to Berkshire against which Charlie and I are powerless. That threat to Berkshire is also the major threat our citizenry faces: a ‘successful’ (as defined by the aggressor) cyber, biological, nuclear or chemical attack on the United States.“ – Buffett in 2016
                  “I don’t know that much about cyber, but I do think that’s the number one problem with mankind.” – Buffett in 2017
                  “Cyber is uncharted territory. It’s going to get worse, not better.” – Buffett in 2018
                  “I think cyber poses real risks to humanity.” – Buffett in 2019

                  As you can see, this dire tone from Buffett is not new.
                  What’s important is that it has never stopped him from being bullish on stocks for the long run.

                  Zooming out 🔭
                  Emerging technologies like AI come with risk, as they have the potential to scale up bad behavior in the same ways they’ll scale up good behavior.

                  Broadly speaking, you can never be certain about how risky anything is. And even worse, there are limits to how much you can hedge a risk before you eliminate the potential for a reasonable return.
                  Unfortunately, this is just the nature of investing in stocks. And it speaks to why returns in the stock market are relatively high — investors demand a high premium for the uncertainty tied to taking on the risk.

                  “Nothing’s sure tomorrow,” Buffett said at last year’s meeting. “Nothing’s sure next year. Nothing is ever sure in markets or in business forecasts or anything else.”

                  We can only hope that history repeats, and the good outcomes far outweigh the bad outcomes — as they always have.

                  https://www.tker.co/p/warren-buffett-artificial-intelligence-warning   Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 02 2024

                  1. Market Leader Semiconductor Index had -17% Correction

                  Semis -17% before bounce rolled over at 50-day


                  2. U.S. Electricity Generation


                  3. Natural Gas Fund $140 to $14


                  4. Trade Natural Gas at Your Own Risk


                  5. NFLX -15% Correction


                  6. These Corrections Have Broken Excessive Optimism Sentiment Streak

                  Excessive Optimism Streak Broken by Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research, 5/2/24

                  Key Takeaways

                  • The NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll exited its excessive optimism zone for the first time in 20 weeks, the third-longest run on record.
                  • Long optimism streaks have become more common and in clusters.
                  • S&P 500 returns have been mixed after optimism periods have ended.

                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/05/02/optimism-streak-broken-ned-davis-research


                  7. Yield Spreads Not Widening

                  Jack Ablin Cresset
                  The yield differential between high-yield bonds and US Treasuries is the narrowest since 2007, according to Credit Suisse data. This suggests that lenders are more comfortable with lower-quality borrowers, believing that higher inflation makes debt repayment easier.


                  8. Wages vs. Inflation Post Covid

                  https://ritholtz.com/


                  9. 81% of Americans Unfavorable View Toward China


                  10. Richard Branson’s Best Advice on Hiring the Right People Is a Master Class in Leadership-INC

                  EXPERT OPINION BY MARCEL SCHWANTES, INC. 

                  Forget the impressive resume and the college degrees. Branson looks for something else when hiring his best people.

                  Richard Branson is famous for his innovative ideas and adventurous spirit. Branson’s signature blond hair and love for risky stunts make him an unconventional leader who isn’t afraid to challenge the status quo.
                  The founder of the Virgin Group has shared various leadership lessons over the years, including his advice on whom to hire and place in leadership roles. He told Forbes years ago:
                  I’m quite involved in hiring for leadership and I look to hire my weaknesses. Personality before [resume]. A person who has multiple degrees in your field isn’t always better than someone with broad experience and a wonderful personality. 

                  What exactly is a ‘wonderful personality’?

                  That’s the million-dollar question. Some confuse skills for traits or vice versa. While you can argue that traits are inherent qualities that define a person’s personality, behavior, and attitudes, most leadership experts will tell you that they can be learned. 
                  That said, the most desirable (personality) traits you’ll want to look for in a leader can skillfully be applied on the job to achieve great results. So what are they? What will lead to effectiveness and success on the job these days? 
                  According to Harvard Business School professor Linda Hill, one of the world’s top experts on leadership, there are eight essential qualities to look for. She tells Harvard Business Review, “Leadership is a process of self-development. No one can teach you how to lead; you need to be willing and able to learn how to lead. Mostly we learn from our experiences and facing adversity.”
                  Of those eight qualities Hill has studied (which you can review in the HBR article), I’ll cover three here that I think Richard Branson would certainly consider for his own leaders:

                  1. Authenticity

                  Merriam-Webster announced late last year that “authentic” was its word of the year for 2023. It’s an overused buzzword that has lost its meaning, sure, but considering the current era of artificial intelligence and disinformation, where the distinction between what’s real and what’s fake has become increasingly ambiguous, it’s not a bad choice.
                  What does the word mean for leadership? I’ll break it down like this: Being authentic in human interaction means showing up with your best self. Unfortunately, sometimes, we choose to hide our true intent or motives to achieve a specific outcome. We wear a mask and try to impress others by becoming who we are not. 
                  You might have heard the phrase “fake it till you make it.” However, this approach leads to short-term gains. It can have severe consequences that damage your reputation and relationships.
                  Perhaps we put up a front and avoid our authenticity because we’re afraid. We might fear failure, feel ashamed of our true identity, or feel that we’ve been playing a role in life.
                  By being real with yourself, dropping the masks, and walking in the path of authenticity, you’ll soon notice a drastic difference in who you attract and how others treat you, especially employees.
                  How to be more authentic
                  The brave thing to do is to first ask for feedback from trusted peers. Hill recommends asking, “Can you give me some sense of what I should keep doing, start doing, and stop doing?” 
                  My own advice as a leadership coach is to be genuine and open about your emotions. This can be shown through statements like, “I’m not sure what direction we should take as a team in this situation. I need some guidance from you (team members).” This creates an environment of honesty and authenticity, which should be modeled and encouraged by leaders in organizations. Being emotionally honest and authentic sets an example for your team members to do the same, leading to stronger connections and more sincere conversations.

                  2. Adaptability

                  Do you adapt well to change and adjust easily to challenging situations? This is an important question you should ask yourself as a leader. Adaptability is a hallmark trait of people with high emotional intelligence. They recognize when to stay the course and when it’s time for a change. In other words, when one strategy is not working, high-EQ leaders evaluate and determine a different course of action. In practical terms, leaders with high EQ know how to handle unhappy customers, disgruntled co-workers, or bosses above their line of sight not pleased with their work.
                  How to boost your adaptability
                  It’s important to engage in activities that require you to be adaptable, says Hill. This means taking on tasks that may be outside of your usual area of expertise. For example, Hill suggests that if you work in finance, you could try working with the marketing team to broaden your skills. Basically, challenge yourself in new environments with diverse groups of people.

                  3. Resilience

                  Similar to adaptability, resilience means being able to adapt to challenging situations in life. Resilient leaders demonstrate unwavering emotional stability under stress, effortlessly adapt to ambiguity, and handle setbacks with poise. 
                  We know that setbacks and failures are inevitable, so today’s leaders and innovators rely heavily on resilience to overcome adversity. Mistakes are a natural and important part of the learning, growing, and innovating process and can be flipped into advantages when embraced.
                  How to become more resilient
                  Working with a coach. Coached individuals are better equipped to manage and thrive during change and uncertainty because coaching strengthens their resilience. How leaders handle stress also plays a crucial role in determining their overall resilience. To enhance yours, some effective techniques include:
                  – Setting clear and specific goals
                  – Sharing worries, anxieties, and concerns with others
                  – Getting enough rest
                  – Balancing work and leisure time
                  – Practicing meditation
                  Going back to the beginning, it raises questions about which of these “traits” Richard Branson would value the most when identifying top leaders. He is known for hiring leaders whose strengths complement his weaknesses, but I find it hard to believe that any of these traits could be considered a weakness in one of the world’s most innovative and charming billionaires.
                  Now accepting applications for Inc.’s Best Workplace awards. Apply by February 16 for your chance to be featured!
                  Like this column? Sign up to subscribe to email alerts and you’ll never miss a post.

                  https://www.inc.com

                  TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 01 2024

                  1. Earnings Surprises Highest Since 2021

                  Equities: In the current earnings season, EPS surprises have been the highest since 2021 (so far).

                  Source: Morgan Stanley Research; @carlquintanilla
                  The Daily Shot Brief https://dailyshotbrief.com/


                  2. History of TSLA Drawdowns

                  Tesla Axes Supercharger Team-Bloomberg

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/tesla-axes-supercharger-team-in-blow-to-other-/automakers?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


                  3. Starbucks Trading Below $77 Pre-Market…-30% from Highs

                  Starbucks heading for 2022 levels….50 week will be below 200 week today


                  4. United Health UNH has More Revenue than Alphabet and Microsoft this Year…CEO Before Congress Today

                  UNH Sideways for 2 years

                  Morningbrew

                  HEALTH

                  Congress to question if UnitedHealth is too big to fail

                  If you’ve ever shaken your fist and yelled at a bill from UnitedHealth, you may have more in common with members of Congress than you think.
                  Lawmakers in Washington are prepared to grill UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Witty in two congressional hearings today, months after a cyberattack on a subsidiary of the healthcare giant, Change Healthcare, rattled the industry and left pharmacies, doctors, and hospitals in the dark. Change processes roughly half of all Americans’ medical claims.
                  Congress wants Witty to clarify how UnitedHealth handled the breach of patient data. But beyond that, it wants to investigate whether the company—the nation’s largest private health insurer—has grown too big and taken on too much risk.
                  Healthcare with a hefty profit
                  However big you think UnitedHealth is, it’s bigger than that:

                  • With a market cap of nearly $450 billion, it’s the fourth-largest company in the US by revenue this year, beating out Alphabet and Microsoft.
                  • The company is eyeing a $24.7 billion profit in 2024.
                  • One analyst estimated that more than 5% of US GDP flows through UnitedHealth’s systems daily.

                  That could all end soon. Throughout most of UnitedHealth’s light-speed growth and acquisition spree, it’s drawn little scrutiny from regulators. But the winds are changing: The DOJ launched an antitrust investigation into the company in February, and today’s hearings show lawmakers are digging in. According to the Washington Post:

                  • Sen. Ron Wyden, chair of the Senate committee interrogating Witty today, plans to ask about the company’s practices, like prior authorization.
                  • At a hearing earlier this month, Rep. Buddy Carter said the company “needs to be busted up.”

                  As if that wasn’t spicy enough…some lawmakers are asking the SEC to investigate suspiciously timed stock sales by UnitedHealth execs that occurred shortly before news of the antitrust investigation went public.—CC
                  https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


                  5. Presidential Election Years and S&P Returns

                  Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


                  6. U.S. vs. Europe Stocks…Pre-2009 vs. Post 2009


                  7. The Increase in U.S. Treasury Issuance


                  8. Inflation for Vehicle Repair….Add to home and car insurance inflation

                  Wolf Street The Consumer Price Index for motor vehicle maintenance and repair leaped in March and was up by 8.2% from a year ago, and by 37% from four years ago. CPI reflects cost increases that consumers face. For fleets, cost increases, including for collision damage repairs, were similar.

                  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/04/29/sagging-used-car-prices-spiking-maintenance-repair-costs-and-a-post-bankruptcy-propaganda-coup-turn-toxic-for-hertz/


                  9. U.S. Spending on Home Renovations

                  From Irrelevant Investor Blog

                  https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/04/24/animal-spirits-a-healthy-pullback/


                  10. Average Wealth for Americans Under 40

                  Emily Peck Axios

                  https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/us-millenial-wealth-pandemic-economy