Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – May 16, 2023

1. 5-Year TIPS Break-Even at FED Target 2%,long%20term%20average%20of%201.91%25.

2. Re-Visit of XLF Financials ETF Chart

XLF still holding 200 week moving average …50week still above 200week

3. Howard Marks on Private Credit.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading OAKTREE WARNS– Howard Marks, the co-founder of $172bn investment group Oaktree Capital Management, has warned that the boom in private credit will soon be tested as higher interest rates and slower economic growth heap pressure on corporate America. The 77-year-old billionaire told the Financial Times that big asset managers had competed aggressively to lend to the largest private equity groups as money poured into their coffers in 2020and 2021, raising questions over the due diligence the funds conducted when they  agreed to provide multibillion-dollar loans. “Did the managers make good credit decisions, ensuring an adequate margin of safety, or did they invest fast because they could accumulate more capital? We’ll see”

Data provider Preqin estimates the private credit market, which includes loans for corporate takeovers, has grown to about $1.5tn from roughly $440bn a decade ago. Fundraising has been brisk, eclipsing $150bn every year since 2019.  But part of that influx of capital was lent when markets were on a seemingly unstoppable march higher — before the US Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates. Competition among private lenders pushed borrowing costs down at the time.

4. International Breadth Stronger than U.S….75% of Names Above 200day.

LPL Research

5. U.S. Budget Deficit is Widest Ever Entering a Recession

Zerohedge The US’s budget deficit is currently running at 8% of GDP, wider than any other major country, and already significantly more than where it was prior to previous recessions.

6. Institutional Money Selling Stocks for 12 Months.

7. Chicago Office Space 22% Vacancy…Bad Quarter of Demand.

Bloomberg-Things aren’t looking up for the commercial real estate market, with the city’s office-vacancy rate reaching a record 22.4% in the first quarter. Even tech companies, once seen as a bright opportunity for Chicago’s future, are retrenching: Salesforce Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are giving up almost 240,000 square feet (22,300 square meters) of space. By

Isis Almeida and Shruti Singh

8. U.S. Retail Gas Prices -30% from Highs


9. 14 million mortgages were refinanced during ‘pandemic boom.’ That makes life very difficult for home buyers.

Aarthi Swaminathan Marketwatch

The great pandemic mortgage refinance boom is most definitely over, but the aftershock is still rippling through the housing market. Homeowners are holding up home sales, as their ultra-low prize is too precious to give up.

During the early days of coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates fell sharply, and millions of homeowners jumped at the opportunity to refinance. The 30-year mortgage fell down to 2.65% in early January of 2021, according to Freddie Mac data FMCC, +2.11%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated that 14 million mortgages were refinanced during the “pandemic refinancing boom.” 

The surge in refinancing was, in part, due to strong household balance sheets and an increased need for housing, the New York Fed said in a blog post published Monday.  The average homeowner who refinanced saw their monthly payment drop by $220, the Fed said.The biggest share of mortgages that were refinanced originated from 2015 onwards, the NY Fed. said. Older mortgages, such as those originated before 2010, were the least likely to be refinanced. 

Homeowners most likely to refinance their mortgage owed a balance of $400,000 to $500,000 on their mortgage, the NY Fed concluded.  “The mortgage refinancing boom is over, but its impact will be seen for decades to come,” Andrew Haughwout, director of household and public policy research at the NY Fed, said in a statement.

10. 10 Ways to Declutter Your Mind

How to feel lighter and more hopeful using these powerful, yet simple tools.  Shonda Moralis MSW, LCSW


  • Cluttered minds can weigh people down and cause unnecessary stress.
  • Individuals can use simple practices to declutter and spring clean their minds.
  • It just takes a few minutes a day to create healthy, sustainable habits. 

This time of year often brings thoughts of spring cleaning our homes—throwing open the windows, decluttering, and organizing. A fresh start to a new season feels light and hopeful.

It’s also the perfect time to spring clean our minds (and our lives in general) by taking stock and recommitting to our priorities.

Whether house or mind, attempting a massive overhaul all at once is not recommended—taking it one small step at a time is far more effective for sustainability and follow-through.

The following are some easy, fun tips to spruce up your life in manageable, bite-sized pieces:

Begin with your mindset.

Let go of thoughts that don’t serve you. We find evidence for what it is we focus on. If my mind is trained on what’snot going well, I will notice the negative more—and vice versa. We can habituate our minds to be on the lookout for the good stuff daily.

Be in the moment. We spend so much of our time in the past or in the future and miss out on what is happening right in front of us. Notice when you are worrying (the future) or rehashing (the past) and come back to what’s here now. (Meditation also helps train our minds to be more in the present moment.)

Do a daily brain dump. Get all of your to-do’s, worries, and thoughts down on paper first thing in the morning, or keep a notebook and pencil by your bed to jot down random thoughts when your mind is full late at night.

Do a digital or screen detox. Spend a weekend day or shorter block of time screen-free in order to make room for creative thought.


Where in your life could you use more organization? Even if you are a well-organized person, there is usually at least one area that can be streamlined—emails, finances, paperwork, the sock drawer—pick one. If you need some motivation, set a timer for 10 minutes or blast your favorite music.


Reflect: After the upheaval of the past few years, what have you learned? What do you want to let go of, and what gets to stay? If you’ve acclimated to a slower pace or more downtime, you might keep one day on the weekend for unscheduled rest or fun.

Identify your top four values (what matters most to you—think nature, learning, community), and let them guide your actions and priorities. Knowing our top values helps keep our priorities and actions in check. If family is one of your top values, for example, each time you decide whether or not to take on a work project or say yes to a social engagement, ask yourself if you are allowing enough family time.


Track your energy: Notice your level of energy when engaged in various activities or tasks. Do you love to garden? You might feel relaxed, calm, and content. Carve out time for more of that (and less social media, which likely drains you). Does cooking dinner and deciding what to make tire you out? Meal plan, assign other family members to make dinner on certain nights, or order a meal subscription service. When possible, do more of what energizes you and less of what drains you. What can you add, delete, or delegate from your to-do list?

Get outside and get moving. Spring ushers in a renewed sense of energy. Moving our bodies helps calm our minds and opens up creative thought.

Cold water swimming is trending to boost energy and ward off depression. Cold bodies of water are decidedly not for me. I do, however, love to step outside in the morning with my cup of coffee, listen to the birds sing, and let the cold air wake me up, starting the day refreshed.

Start a new healthy habit. Be intentional about what habit you choose. What do you want to do and why? Knowing our why helps renew our motivation when it inevitably flags. I might, for example, begin stretching five minutes a day to increase flexibility, lessen stiffness, and prevent injuries, and it feels great!

Which one life spring cleaning tip will you experiment with today

Shonda Moralis, MSW, LCSW, is a psychotherapist, mindfulness educator, writer, and mom of two. Shonda Moralis MSW, LCSW

Topley’s Top 10 – May 15, 2023

1. History of Bonds Post Fed Rate Hike Cycle.

JP Morgan Private Bank

2. Where Will All This Cash Be Deployed?

Capital Group

3. Oil Down 4 Weeks in a Row…Energy ETF Bearish Cross to Downside.

50day thru 200day to downside for last year’s winning sector energy

4. GOOGL Bullish Cross to Upside.

Last year’s loser tech add another bullish chart….GOOGL still well off highs but 50day thru 200 day to upside.

5. The Dramatic Increase in Satellite Launches.


6. Space ETF UFO Testing Previous Lows.

7. Credit: The US still has too many banks.

Source: Goldman Sachs

8. Youth Unemployment in China 20%

9. Tech vs. Banks Dispersion

Barbara Kollmeyer Marketwatch

10. Shifting Paradigms: 3 Business ‘Truths’ That Are Fundamentally Untrue

Reframe your entrepreneurial dream with a few shifts in perspective and a clear methodology to achieve a more joyful life.


Photo: Getty Images

Michèle Hecken is an Entrepreneurs’ Organization (EO) member in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. An ex-CEO, she is the founder of The Art of Offboarding, a proprietary leadership and operational methodology which she implements in Fortune 500 companies. She is also a public speaker who delivers keynotes and workshops for organizations across the world. We asked Michèle how she transformed her business to do what she loves on her own terms. Here’s what she shared:


“Go from good to great. Build a big business. Size matters.”

“Don’t work too hard. Work-life balance matters.”

Sound familiar to you? I know I’ve heard and grappled with these universal “truths” over the years, after starting a global translation company in my twenties and trying to grow it while raising two young children. 

Eventually, I realized something that would change the course of my entire life: There was a way to build a successful business based almost entirely on what you love doing rather than what you think you should love doing. 

I carved out a system to grow the business that served my family, my team, our customers, and myself. In 2019, it culminated in a high-seven-figure exit

Here are the three paradigm shifts that form its foundation: 

1. From “Delegating” to “Offboarding”

According to some, you should delegate to successfully grow a business. I’m here to tell you that this is not the solution but the problem. Why?

What happens when you delegate is a placebo effect. You feel good in the moment because you shuffled something off your desk. But then you do it again. And again. 

What happens next? You get lost in the follow-up. The time you saved on executing the tasks is replaced with endless coordination of employee work.

Delegating simply shifts the kind of work you do. You still own the task. Eventually, you become more stressed, as delegation encourages micromanagement. 

Offboarding is a game changer because it transfers task ownership–your employees own the entire outcome. Speaking from experience, this is an excellent way to train employees, increase their value to the business (and ensure they feel valued), and relax your grip. This also frees up your schedule, allowing you to pursue other goals.

2. From “Work-Life Balance” to “Life”

I’ve never met an entrepreneur who works optimally within a standard nine-to-five schedule. Some days we are in a deep state of flow and work 14 hours. On other days, we might struggle to get out of bed. At the same time, we build our businesses to give us the flexibility to be present for our non-work engagements whenever we want–trying to please everyone around us. 

When you try and make everybody happy, all while keeping everything “balanced,” it becomes an impossible challenge. 

The solution, something that I do when advising other entrepreneurs, is to reverse-engineer it all. Ask yourself:

·         What do I want my life to look like?

·         What is my ideal day?

·         How does my flow work on that day?

·         What kinds of freedoms do I want and need?

The goal isn’t to ensure burnout never happens again. Instead, it’s to optimize your life and business so that they align with your true self, your wants, and your needs.

3. From “Good to Great” to “Good to Happy”

Everyone wants to be happy in life–most of us prioritize happiness as a goal. 

The happiest lives are those that are continually enriched with new knowledge, connections, and experiences. That means having the willingness to get out there, try new things, and make time for enjoyment every day. You can’t get to this point by feeling forced to fit in fun or relaxation time, nor by stagnating and stifling your growth.

One practice I’ve implemented, that has worked wonders, is treating every day like a “mini life” and living it on my terms. Am I allocating my time and energy where I want it to go? Am I enjoying my day to the fullest and achieving the goals I’ve set? Most of all, have I done things that brought me joy today?

If you can respond with a resounding “yes” to these questions every day, you can theoretically achieve an entire lifetime of happiness. Sounds much more realistic this way, doesn’t it?

Reframing paradigms and shifting away from what you’ve been told should make you successful is not easy. The opportunity to co-author a recently published book, Lead Like a Woman: Audacity has allowed me to reflect on just how profoundly I’ve subverted traditional expectations both in my business and in my life.

I believe the entrepreneurial dream needs to be reframed to include a joyful life in which you never have to give up happiness for the sake of your business. I know that with a few shifts in perspective, a clear methodology, and a remarkable support system, every entrepreneur can achieve that reality.

Topley’s Top 10 – May 12, 2023

1. 10-Year Treasury Yield Chart

Bearish cross to downside…50day thru 200day to downside.

2. Comparing U.S. vs. International Stock Returns Since 1970

Ben Carlson Here are total returns by various periods of over- or underperformance for each going back to 1970:

Some investors have an easier time wrapping their heads around annualized returns so here are those figures as well:

U.S. stock had an unbelievable run coming out of the Great Financial Crisis but international stocks did far better at times in the 1970s, 1980s and early-2000s.

It’s also true that much of the outperformance has taken place during the latest cycle. From 1970-2012, the annual returns were basically dead even:

  • U.S. stocks +9.7%
  • International stocks +9.6%

All of the outperformance has essentially come since 2013.

3. 20 Years of Negative Average Real Fed Funds Rate

@Charlie Bilello Since 2010, this has been a rarity, with ultra-easy monetary policy persisting nearly the entire time. 

4. Disney One-Year of Bouncing Along Bottom

5. Buyback ETF Chart.

Maybe another example of the concentration of performance this year….S&P positive but buyback etf bearish cross to downside…50day thru 200day

6. China: State-owned companies have been outperforming.

Source: Gavekal Research

7. Wages and Earnings vs. Inflation

Jack Ablin Cresset Real wage growth has been negative consistently since April 2021, implying that American households are falling behind as the cost of food, energy and other products and services are racing ahead of incomes. Corporate profits have had a similarly difficult time outpacing the inflation current. Since March 2021, cumulative profit growth has trailed inflation by nine percentage points.

8. Robinhood will launch 24-hour trading to let customers buy and sell Tesla, Apple, and other popular stocks around the clock

Business Insider

Carla Mozée 

May 11, 2023, 2:48 PM EDT

  • Robinhood will soon allow customers to buy and sell stocks and ETFs overnight in extended trading hours. 
  • Its 24 Hour Market will run Sunday through Friday starting at 8 p.m. ET, beginning this month. 
  • Customers can place limit orders on 43 individual stocks and ETFs including Tesla and Apple. 

Robinhood said 24-hour trading is coming to its platform as the company that was at the center of the meme-stock frenzy aims to accommodate time-strapped customers while pushing for wider change in trading operations. 

A rollout of 24 Hour Market will begin May 16 to a “subset” of customers, followed by all customers getting access in June. Trading hours will be from 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Sunday to 8 p.m. Eastern on Friday.

“We’ve often heard from customers that it’s tough to find time for investing during regular market hours with work, family, and everything in between,” Robinhood said in a statement. “24 Hour Market lets customers invest when they want, on their schedule.” 

The program will allow people to place limit orders to buy whole shares of TeslaAmazonApple and 40 other of the most-traded individual stocks and exchange-traded funds, the company said. 

Limit orders let investors buy or sell a security at a specific price versus market orders under which trades are made at the best available price. Limit orders could dial down the exposure for customers to large price swings that can occur after hours when trading volume is thinner than in regular market hours. 

Regular hours of stock trading Monday through Friday begin at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time and end at 4 p.m. Eastern. So-called after-hours trade or extended hours are available at some brokerages, with trading running early as 4 a.m. Eastern and stretching to 8 p.m. Eastern. 

“It’s the next step in evolving the market to how it should work, which is 24/7, and more like a piece of software rather than a brick-and-mortar institution that’s tied to U.S. East Coast working hours,” Robinhood’s Chief Executive Vlad Tenev told The Wall Street Journal.

9. NYC Running Out of Shelter Space

10. 14 Great Study Habits for a Lifetime

Psychology Today Temma Ehrenfeld These tips can help at all ages, from high-school students to job-changers.

You need to study up. The tips that work for high school and college kids still apply, whether you’re a retiree learning for fun, adapting to meet challenges at a job, or boning up as part of a career switch.

Here are 14 ways to make learning go better. They may be especially helpful if you have ADHD or a low mood that limits your energy.

1. Take a little time to get into the right frame of mind. 

A little time, not so much that you’ve used up all of your available time. Dance to an upbeat song for 10 minutes. If you’re distracted by chores that need doing, list them, then put the list away for later. If you’re completely obsessed with a distraction, be honest with yourself. But don’t just procrastinate. Decide exactly when you’ll do your studying and commit to being in the right frame of mind.

Be positive. Instead of thinking, “I don’t have enough time,” think, “I’m starting now.” Remember that discipline and focus are skills that you can build over time in small steps.

2. Find a quiet spot without distractions and return to it next time.

Think, “Where did I do well?” Look for the ideal situation, not just “good enough.” It might be as simple as choosing to sit up on a living room chair rather than lie down on the sofa to read. Bed probably isn’t the best place.

3. Bring what you need, but only what you need.

If you need a book, don’t forget it. But if you can leave your smartphone well out of reach, do so. Do you truly learn best while listening to music? If so, have your music and earphones, but otherwise, don’t have them handy.

4. Don’t multi-task.

You may think you’re an expert at watching a video with the information you need and scrolling through Instagram. However, evidence suggests that common sense applies: You have only so much working memory, and you’re taking some of it up on Instagram. Your multi-tasking means you won’t absorb and retain as much of the video.

5. Outline your notes. Make lists and fill them in.

Make outlines that work for you, even if they might be confusing to someone else. Use words that make sense to you, translating the words in material you may be reading. “Chunk” together the groups of words or facts or ideas that you feel belong in a group. The goal is to produce an outline that will help you—not someone else—remember the material.

Writing may work better than keyboarding into a laptop. There’s some evidence that using our fingers in that way helps us think. Read aloud an important sentence if you’re alone or mouth the words if you’re in a library. You may think it’s babyish to mouth or read aloud. Actually, poetry was the first way that human beings remembered stories, and we haven’t changed that much.

6. If you like memory devices, use them and get creative.

Make up a catchy rhyme to associate ideas and repeat it out loud. Make up a sentence. For example, “Never Ever Seem Worried,” is a way to remember “North, East, South, West.” “Every Good Boy Deserves Fun” helps music students remember the five notes of the treble clef, “E, G, B, D, F.”

If you don’t know if you like memory devices, try one out and see if it sticks. Then the next time you’re studying, you can try another one.

If you tend to be visual, take your time looking at the illustrations or photos in the book you’re reading to associate them with the information.

7. Practice.

If you’re taking a class and will be writing the answer to a surprise question on a test, make up a likely question and do the exercise of writing an answer with a timer on. Do it again.

Actually try to solve the sample problems in the materials you’re using; don’t just read the answers. Make up similar problems, try to solve them, and later on, at the end of a study period, find sources that can tell you whether your answers were correct. If you’re learning a new language, you might write out some questions and answers and show them to a native speaker at your next opportunity. Research suggests that an activity in which you generate a product or test yourself is more powerful than time spent consuming information—for example, reviewing notes. 

8. Find buddies.

Some people like to work with a group of four or five other people who are at about their level. Quiz each other. Try to do as well as the person you most admire. Turn envy into a source of motivation rather than resentment.

9. Make a schedule you can stick to.

If you have any flexibility, notice the times of day when you’re sharpest and dedicate them to learning. If you’re studying at home on a weekend or work at home, take a warm morning shower to gear up for analytical work, advises biologist and body-clock expert Steve Kay. Get your studying or work done before lunch, especially if you’re an early riser. You’re likely to be most distractible from noon to 4 p.m.

Sticking to a schedule may seem like a burden, but you’ll appreciate the investment if you can avoid last-minute cramming. How many minutes you spend each time is less important than regularity.

9. Space it out.

Most work goes better if you divide it into realistic chunks. Try not to cram for an exam in one burst. The evidence against cramming is mixed, but the common-sense advice to plan ahead and proceed in a consistent way, spacing out your study time, does seem to be right. 

10. Take breaks.

If you’re falling asleep while reading, you may have picked the wrong time of day to study. Consider a nap if you’re sleep-deprived and then get back to work.

If you’re losing focus, but not short of sleep, move. It’ll help you more than extra coffee and stoking yourself with sugar is a mistake. Stretch and walk to the other end of the library at least once an hour. Even better, go for a short jog.

Bouts of movement—typically 15 to 20 minutes at moderate intensity—can measurably boost your mood and cognitive performance. Even 10 minutescan make a difference. Take time to look out the window, especially if you have a view of trees or other greenery. Nature is a good stress-reliever,even if you can’t climb the Himalayas today. If you succeed in a significant goal—maybe reading an entire chapter—treat yourself by a break flying over the Himalayas on Google’s satellite map.

10. Reward yourself.

It’s healthy to set goals and then reward yourself in ways you decide in advance—not French fries, but something you won’t regret later. Facebook is an OK break if you haven’t let it become a substitute for what you meant to do.

11. Students need to learn about finding balance.

This means getting enough sleep, eating regularly and well, exercising, and not becoming too distracted or obsessed by love affairs or social problems. As adults, we, too, need to keep that kind of balance.

12. Don’t depend on drugs or even herbs to make you more focused and productive.

Also don’t indulge in partying in ways that will interfere with the next day.

13. If you’re taking a course, talk to the instructor early on, or an assistant, to know what to expect.

You may be aiming high, so plan on working harder or be realistic about your grade. Suss out what’s most important to the instructor. Establish a connection so you can talk to the instructor if you find yourself falling behind or do badly on a project. Pay attention in class.

14. Recall your original goals and motivations.

Sometimes we lose track of our original impetus once we’re midway through an endeavor. Why did you want to master this material? If you’re resenting the time, money, or difficulty, talk to someone you trust to reorient yourself.

Topley’s Top 10 – May 11, 2023

1. Demand for Corporate Loans and Commercial Real Estate

Torsten Slok Apollo Group

2. Chinese Internet Stocks -15% YTD as U.S. Tech Leads

KWEB Chinese Internet ETF

3. QQQ vs. KWEB chart..straight up for QQQ in 2023….50day thru 200day to upside

4. Developed Europe ETF Runs Up to 2021 Highs

$37 to $52….big resistance at these levels on chart

5. Global Equity Profit Margins Still Elevated.

Blackrock Insights

6. How Many Months on Average Between the Last Fed Hike in Cycle and the First Cut Thereafter

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank I’ve done a lot of thinking recently as to whether the market has been crazy or not after the SVB collapse to price in imminent Fed cuts when the hiking cycle hasn’t yet officially finished.  The reality is that the market probably got ahead of itself in the immediate aftermath, but more recently has been closer to being in line with history.

Today’s CoTD shows (in order) how many months there were between the last Fed hike in a cycle and the first cut thereafter. There is quite a wide bid-offer and every cycle is different, but the average gap is around 6 months, with the median 4 months.  So if May was the last hike then median/average history would take us to September/October. Given the first cut is now fully priced by the November meeting (no meeting in October) it’s hard to criticise too heavily. DB think it’ll be in Q1 2024.

Of the 13 Fed cycles we’ve analysed here the annotated numbers on the graph show that 5 first cuts occurred when the recession had already started. A further two within 3 months. 2 more saw the recession start 6-7 months later, 1 more 11 months later and 3 outliers where the recession only started 33-69 months later.So most but not all (7/13) saw the first cut occur within 3 months of the subsequent recession.

 Given where inflation currently is it’s hard to see the Fed cutting without a recession being imminent or obvious to them. Although that’s not the case at the moment, given the house view of it starting in Q4 we are probably in the right ball park for pricing in the first cut even if you could argue over the finer details.

7. U.S. Government Interest Expense is Now Annualized $929 Billion.

8. Global Supply Chain Pressure Record High to Record Low in One Year

9. Olive Oil Prices Highest in 26 Years

10. 5 Things the Good Leaders Never Say in Meetings

Meetings can be a real drag. Especially when you’re the one making them that way.


Getty Images

We’ve all been there. That meeting you’ve scheduled 30 minutes for is now taking three hours. When you’ve finally called it a day, you’re still left without the answers you need. Your staff are left frustrated, your team deflated. What went wrong?

While mandatory to the company, meetings can quickly take a turn for the worst. Given the approach, it’s no wonder. Locking everyone in a room and buckling down until issues are solved is hardly an environment to garner innovation and camaraderie. 

It also doesn’t help when the person in charge is making things worse. If you’re ever left scratching your head wondering why things turned sour, it’s time for some self-reflection.

Here are five signs that you’re likely the culprit of a good meeting gone wrong: 

1. You use nicknames. 

You may not think twice about it, but referring to a colleague as ‘man’, ‘bro’, ‘girl’, or ‘dude’ creates an issue. Not everyone interprets nicknames as a term of endearment. Some may feel it’s demeaning, while others may feel like you’re playing favorites. 

Instead of navigating which nicknames are okay and which are not, do yourself a favor and just avoid the issue all together. Call someone by their first name. It’s that simple. I’m all for casual offices, but there is a level of professionalism that you need to maintain.

2. You play the blame game.

This can go two ways. You’re either blaming one person, or you’re taking all of the blame. We have a tendency as leaders to assume that if anything goes wrong, we need to point the finger. Even if it’s at ourselves.  

To create a culture that’s continually innovating and connected, never single out someone or something as the culprit. Just watch any professional sports team; when they lose, they don’t blame the referee or another player. They win as a team and they lose as a team. Treat yours the same way. 

3. You put people on the spot.

We all know that feeling when the teacher called your name, followed by the entire class staring at you. Even if you knew the answer, the pressure of being put on the spot makes your mind foggy and your anxiety levels high. 

Why would you want to put someone through the same torture? It’s a common misconception that leaders have to keep employees on their toes to ensure they’re always prepared. But if you’ve hired right and are offering meaningful work, then this should never be an issue. 

4. You shut down bad ideas.

This can seem like a no-brainer, but before you plead not guilty, chances are you’ve been an offender without even realizing it. 

There are many ways we can dismiss ideas that aren’t worth developing. Your body language and facial expressions can play a big part. Snickers, eye rolls, furrowed brows, or pretending like you never heard them are all examples of how you’re telling the person (and your team) that their idea is not just bad, but not worth your time.

While no one’s asking you to sugarcoat the truth or analyze every idea that hits the table, the key is to celebrate the fact that ideas are coming forward at all. So treat every single one with consideration and respect. Otherwise, you’ll stop getting them. 

5. You ‘but’ in. 

“I thought you did a great job, but…”

As soon as you say those three little letters, you’ve ruined whatever came before it. If you have critical feedback to give, then give it without spinning it from a positive. Employees will appreciate you telling it like it is.

Stay away from loaded sentences. You’re only creating scenarios that are over analyzed and highly agonized.

Topley’s Top 10 – May 10, 2023

1. Jeremy Schwartz at Wisdom Tree Answer to Yesterday’s Top 10 Opener.

Expanded tech is the the old tech classifications before S&P carved it up… effectively Amazon from Consumer Discretionary and Facebook/old twiter, Netflix from comms services more like old FANNG… Expanded tech makes up 40% of S&P

2. Up to Date Fundamentals by Sector


3. Passive Fixed Income Surpassed $3 Trillion

Vanguard’s Trillion-Dollar Man Leads a Fixed-Income Revolution-by Ye Xie, Liz Capo McCormick, 5/9/23

But history is repeating. The dramatic losses in debt markets last year, fueled by the most aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening in a generation, has turned what was once a relatively slow and steady shift away from active bond funds and toward passive products into a stampede.

The gap between passive and active net flows reached a record $1.04 trillion in 2022, almost triple any other year, according to data from EPFR. Passive funds lured $279 billion in new cash, while active funds bled $757 billion.

As of March, assets managed by passive funds surpassed $3 trillion for the first time. They now account for 31% of the fixed-income fund universe, the data show, up from just 13% a decade ago.

4. Comparing Historical Interest Rate Cuts

This Fed rate hiking cycle IS different.

( Abnormal Returns Blog

5. Regional Bank Turmoil Pushing More Lending to Direct Private Lending.

Dealbook ByLauren Hirsch  Whipsaw trading in shares of regional banks this week made it clear the fallout from three federal bank seizures was far from over. Some investors are betting against even seemingly healthy banks like PacWest, and regulators are gearing up to tack on new capital constraints for small and medium-size lenders.

Large banks, though raking in cash, are facing their own constraints, saddled with loans written before interest rates started rising.

That means businesses large and small may soon need to look elsewhere for loans. And a growing cohort of nonbanks, which don’t take deposits — including giant investment firms like Apollo Global Management, Ares Management and Blackstone — are chomping at the bit to step into the vacuum.

For the last decade, these institutions and others like them have aggressively scooped up and extended loans, helping to grow the private credit industry sixfold since 2013, to $850 billion, according to the financial data provider Preqin.

Credit…The New York Times

6. Andressen $500m Bet on Civic Minded Start-Ups-Axios

Mike Allen

7. Where Countries Stand On Russia


While most of Europe and North America condemns Russia for its war in Ukraine, as far as politics goes, it’s not a universal stance…

Statista’s Anna Fleck reports that new analysis by the Economist Intelligence Unit has found that Russia’s support base is slowly growing in some parts of the world.

Where 29 countries used to lean towards Russia in 2022, that number has now risen to 35.

Conversely, while the number of countries either West-leaning or actively condemning Russia is still by far the bigger group, its figures have dropped from 131 to 122.

The EIU says this fall is partly driven by the shift of a number of emerging economies into a more neutral position.

The map above uses EIU data to show different countries’ stances on Russia ranging from condemnation to support, as of March 2023.

While Africa shows a patchwork quilt of positionings, the EIU reports that a number of its countries have moved towards the Russian side in the past year.Where South Africa and Uganda were politically neutral on the topic in 2022, they are now listed as Russia-leaning. Meanwhile, where Burkina Faso and Mali were Russia-leaning before, they are now outright supportive of Russia. In Latin America, Bolivia was highlighted as a notable country for its position shift, having also moved from neutral to pro-Russia by 2023.

At the same time, the number of neutral countries has risen from 32 to 35. One country to buck the trend is Bangladesh, which has moved the opposite direction, shifting from being neutral to West-leaning between 2022 and 2023.

8. Pennsylvania 165% Increase in Handguns Since 2000

9. NYC Most Expensive Neighborhoods.,6%20percent%2C%20to%20%243.5%20million.

10. The Velvet Rut-The Daily Stoic

Ryan Holiday-It’s very easy to get comfortable. To build up your life exactly how you want it to be. Minimize inconveniences and hand off the stuff you don’t like to do. To find what you enjoy, where you enjoy it, and never leave.

velvet rut is what it’s called. It’s nice, but the comfort tricks you into thinking that you’re not stuck.

The Stoics knew that this was a kind of death. That as soon as we stop growing, we start dying. Or at least, we become more vulnerable to the swings of Fate and Fortune. Seneca talked over and over again about the importance of adversity, of not only embracing the struggle life throws at us but actively seeking out that difficulty, so you can be stronger and better and more prepared. A person who has never been challenged, he said, who always gets their way, is a tragic figure. They have no idea what they are capable of. They are not even close to fulfilling their potential.

So that leaves you with something to think about today: Are you challenging yourself? Do the choices you make push you or do they help you atrophy? Are you in a velvet rut?

Be honest. And then challenge yourself to do better.