Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – January 12, 2023

1. Alibaba Almost a Double Off Bottom

BABA $59 Low in November to $155 Last

2. China Re-Opening Watch Copper…Copper 50% Consumed by China

JJC Copper ETF 50day approaching 200day to upside

Statista-Distribution of refined copper consumption worldwide in 2021, by region

3. Europe 50 Bullish Chart Action

Stoxx Europe 50day thru 200day to upside

4. Industrials U.S. Sector Approaching Break-Out Highs

VIS ETF Held 200 Week Twice in 2022

5. IWM Russell 2000 Small Cap 4th Run Since November Above 200day

6. Jack Ablin with Chart on Months to Economic Indicator Lows After Fed Stops Raising Rates

Jack Ablin Cresset Capital–We expect economic indicators to begin to fall in line with interest rate reality in 2023. However, history suggests the full impact won’t be felt for many months, considering peak tightening, according to the futures market, isn’t expected until sometime in Q2. S&P profits could bottom in 2024 and unemployment may not peak until 2025, if this tightening cycle follows historical norms.

How Interest Rates Will Affect the Economy in 2023 | Cresset Capital

7. U.S. Natural Gas Exports vs. Imports -WSJ

8. Russian prisoners sent to the front lines in Ukraine have been publicly executed for not charging into enemy fire, captured inmates say

John Haltiwanger -Business Insider

A Ukrainian military member on the front lines in Donetsk, Ukraine, December 4. Narciso Contreras/Getty Images

  • Captured members of a Russian mercenary group say defiant troops are publicly executed in Ukraine.
  • The infamous Wagner Group has recruited prisoners to fight on the front lines.
  • One captured former inmate described many of the recruited prisoners as “completely insane.”

Top editors give you the stories you want — delivered right to your inbox each weekday.

Captured Russian inmates who have been sent to the front lines in Ukraine as part of the Wagner Group, an infamous mercenary organization with ties to the Kremlin, say they’ve witnessed public executions of deserters and disobedient troops, according to a Tuesday report from Polygon Media and the independent Mozhem Obyasnit news outlet. 

“Those who disobey are eliminated — and it’s done publicly,” Yevgeny Novikov, a former inmate who the report said was recruited by the mercenary group, said, according to a translation of the report from The Daily Beast.

Novikov said there were “squadrons of liquidators” that dealt with troops considered problematic.

In one instance, according to The Beast’s translation, Novikov said: “Shelling began, one of the prisoners laid down and didn’t cover his own [men]. The shelling stopped, he went back, and the higher-up shouted to him: ‘Why didn’t you go forward?’ And they killed him. The higher-up is killed if his team deserts.”

9. Golden Globes Viewership -75% From Early 2000’s Peak

10. Why We Overeat?

Psychology Today Thomas Rutledge Ph.D.


Topley’s Top 10 – January 11, 2023








Important New Inflation Indicator Joseph Politano -Apricitas Economics

Using the same underlying BLS microdata that composes the housing component of the CPI, the NTRR uses information on lease turnover to track rent growth in units that change tenants. The ATRR covers all housing units but attributes rent changes to when they happened, as opposed to the official CPI data which tracks price changes when units are surveyed.





5. Chips Made in USA May Cost Up to 50% More than Asia

Barrons–Chang has said that factories in the U.S. won’t be cost competitive with the firm’s Taiwan fabrication plants, or fabs. Chips currently made at the company’s Oregon site cost 50% more than the same semiconductors made in Asia, Chang said during an interview last year at the Brookings Institution.

Taiwan Semi 25% Bounce Off Bottom

6. Huge Move from Bond Mutual Funds to Bond ETFs

BND Chart –Barrons Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas, says the bond bear market accelerated the shift, noting that over the past 12 months, a record $634 billion has moved from bond mutual funds into ETFs.

BND Vanguard Total Bond ETF-Hits 200day Twice in Past Month

7. San Fran Public Transportation No Recovery…Wolf Street Blog

8. Small Business Confidence Sliding Lower

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading NOT CONFIDENT– U.S. small-business confidence slid to a six-month low in December, according to a survey on Tuesday, which also showed that inflation and worker shortages remained major issues for firm owners.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.1 points to 89.8 last month – the lowest since June – amid a decline in the share of owners who expected better business conditions over the next six months.

The net share of owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell to -51% last month from -43% in November. It was -61% as recently as June.  Thirty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem, unchanged from November and 5 points lower than July’s reading, which was the highest since the fourth quarter of 1979

9. Not Surprising But % Of Homes Selling Above List Plummets

From Liz Ann Sonders Schwab Perhaps no surprise but % of homes selling above their list price (as of November 2022) has fallen to 30%, which is way below peak of 53% in March 2022 (Redfin)

(99+) Liz Ann Sonders | LinkedIn



The key to being successful in life is knowing your strengths. However, you also need to know where you fall short in order to improve. As much pride as we each have in America and our home states, it’s important to recognize that there are things each of us can do to make our states more wonderful.

Topley’s Top 10 – January 10, 2023

1. S&P Dividend Yield vs. Treasuries 2022

Bespoke Investment Group Blog Two years ago at the end of 2020, the S&P’s dividend yield was higher than the entire Treasury curve except for the 30-year. Fast forward to now and the S&P’s dividend looks puny compared to 4%+ yields on T-Bills.

2. One Bullish Factor for Markets…Sentiment at Extreme Bearishness.

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading Reminder from Last Week, BofA notes the extreme bearish sentiment of Analysts is very bullish for Stocks.

3. Consumer Confidence at Historic Lows\

4. And Presidential Cycle Seasonality Positive.

Presidential Cycle Present?  We know seasonality works different in bear markets vs all markets, but still a very interesting chart considering where sentiment is.

5. Jeremy Siegel Wisdom Tree “Inflation Basically Dead”…I  Agree.

The broad U6 measure of unemployment dropped to an all-time low in the nearly 30-year history of the series. The labor force participate rate increased, bringing some workers off the sidelines and that also is positive for wage gain moderation.

The bottom line of all this price and inflation data: all measures are very encouraging and inflation is basically dead in my view. Commodities and natural gas prices in particular, have just plummeted with warmer weather. Gas prices are way off their highs.

What does this mean for the Fed? There is widespread expectation of a 25-basis point hike at the February 1st meeting. I reiterate I don’t think the Fed should do this hike, as the cumulative tightening is enough. But if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports come in as I expect and softer, there is a chance the February hike is the last of this cycle.

Weekly Siegel Commentary – Weekly Siegel Commentary (

US U-6 Unemployment Rate U-6 Unemployment Level

Measures the percentage of the U.S. labor force that is unemployed, plus those who are underemployed, marginally attached to the workforce, and have given up looking for work.
6.40% for Dec 2022

6. Credit Boom…$1.2Trillion in Loans Made 2022


7. CNBC REAL ESTATE-Consumer confidence in housing finally rises, thanks to falling home prices


A monthly housing sentiment index from Fannie Mae showed sentiment improving from November to December.

The share of respondents saying now is a good time to buy a home was still low, at just 21%, but it was up from 16% in October and November.

More consumers now believe home prices will fall in the next 12 months, and more also said they believe mortgage rates will come down.

8. Good News…U.S. Patents Being Granted at Record Rates

Yesterday was the final day of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the world’s largest tech trade show, which has been offering a glimpse into the future of consumer tech for more than 50 years. This year’s show, attended by roughly 100,000 tech enthusiasts, included color-changing cars, urine-scanning devices and an oven that prevents burnt food.

The innovation acceleration…

Many of the innovative technologies displayed at CES are likely covered by a patent — and digging through patent filings is a good way of picking up on future tech trends. Filings mentioning “metaverse”, for example, have risen significantly, as have those mentioning “foldable technology”, “electric vehicles” and “sustainable technology”.The total number of patents filed in the US has also risen, with record numbers being granted in recent years. That trend has also been reflected globally, with 2021 setting a new global record number of IP filings for patents, trademarks and designs to protect innovations — with Asia filing 64% of the 1.7 million patents filed worldwide.

… or just a paperwork pile-up?Preparing a patent submission usually requires lawyers or experts, and total costs can routinely run into the many thousands for complex ideas or submissions. That is why tech giants, who can monetize their intellectual property more efficiently than individual inventors, always top the patent tables.

Interestingly, IBM — which topped the patent league tables for 29 years in a row before losing its crown to Samsung — has just switched tack. The company dropped its patent count by 44% last year in a bid to free up resources from the time-consuming patent process.

9. Rolls-Royce heralds ‘momentous year’ as car sales exceed 6,000 for first time

Yahoo Finance Neil Lancefield, PA Transport Correspondent

Mon, 9 January 2023 at 8:06 am GMT-5·2-min read

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars has exceeded annual sales of more than 6,000 cars for the first time in its 118-year history, the company announced.

It said it achieved “particularly strong year-on-year growth” during 2022 in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, the USA and Europe.

A “single-digit” drop in sales was recorded in Greater China – which includes mainland China and areas such as Hong Kong – due to “ongoing headwinds” but this was “successfully counterbalanced by increased sales in other markets”, according to the car maker.


Some 6,021 cars were delivered to customers last year, a rise of 8% compared with 2021.

The value of bespoke commissions also reached record levels in 2022, with clients “willing to pay around half a million euros (£440,000) for their unique Rolls-Royce motor car”, according to the BMW-owned company.

Demand for all models “remains exceptionally strong” with advance orders “secured far into 2023”, it added.

Rolls-Royce Motor Cars chief executive Torsten Muller-Otvos described 2022 as a “momentous year” for the company, which is based in Goodwood, West Sussex.

He said: “Not only did we reveal Rolls-Royce Spectre, our marque’s first ever fully-electric series model to the world, it was also the first year we ever delivered more than 6,000 cars in a single 12-month period, with strong demand across our entire product portfolio.

“But as a true house of luxury, sales are not our sole measure of success: we are not and never will be a volume manufacturer.

“Bespoke is Rolls-Royce, and commissions were also at record levels last year, with our clients’ requests becoming ever more imaginative and technically demanding – a challenge we enthusiastically embrace.”

He added: “This success has not been achieved overnight.

“In 2023, we mark the 20th anniversary of the home of Rolls-Royce at Goodwood, during which time we’ve transformed our business through a long-term strategy based on continuous and sustainable growth, careful management and planning, an unwavering focus on profit and a respectful but forward-thinking reinvention of the Rolls-Royce brand.”

More than 150 jobs were created at the company’s headquarters in 2022, taking the site’s total workforce to 2,500.

10. A New Study Shows Improved Health and Increased Longevity Come Down to the Rule of 72-104

Want to live a longer, healthier life? How much water you drink can be a major factor. 


What do you and ice cream have in common? You’re both about 60 percent water. 

What you don’t have in common — assuming ice cream doesn’t lounge around thinking deep thoughts — is the effect water has on your mental abilitiesStudies show you need be only 1 percent dehydrated to experience a 5 percent decrease in cognitive function, and a 2 percent decrease in brain hydration can result in short-term memory loss. 

And then there’s this: A National Institutes of Health study just published in eBioMedicine found that not drinking enough water is also associated with a significantly higher risk of developing chronic diseases, a higher risk of dying early, and a higher risk of being biologically older than your chronological age. 

What you also don’t have in common with ice cream is that longevity matters. (Since ice cream is my healthy-diet Achilles’ heel, it has an extremely short life span in my house.) 

Obviously, we all want to live long, healthy lives. But longevity is also an important factor in success. The longer you live, the more likely you are to be able to start a thriving business.

The longer you live, the more you can leverage the power of time. As Morgan Housel writes in The Psychology of Money, “Effectively all of Warren Buffett’s financial success can be tied to the financial base he built in his pubescent years and the longevity he maintained in his geriatric years. His skill is investing, but his secret is time.”

So yeah: Drinking enough water matters. 

How Much Water Should You Drink?

First a little background. Serum sodium levels in your blood increase when you drink less fluids. 

When the researchers analyzed data collected over a 30-year period, they found that: 

People with serum sodium at the higher end of the normal range had worse health outcomes than those at the lower end of normal.

People with high levels of serum sodium had a 15 percent higher chance of being biologically older than their chronological age, and a 64 percent higher risk of developing chronic diseases like heart failure, stroke, chronic lung disease, diabetes, and dementia.

People with extremely high levels of serum sodium had a 50 percent higher risk of being biologically older and a 21 percent higher risk of dying early. 

The tricky part, of course, is knowing your serum sodium levels. But since serum sodium levels are typically a lagging indicator of fluid consumption, drinking enough water should, for most people, be sufficient.

According to the National Academy of Medicine, women should drink about 72 ounces of water per day, men 104. (The actual fluid intake amount needed is higher, but we also get liquid from water-heavy foods like fruits, vegetables, and, um, ice cream.) You might need more, depending on your level of physical activity, but that’s a good place to start.

Since keeping track is a pain — and because we all tend to overestimate the “good” things we do and underestimate the “bad” — the key is to follow a few simple rules. 

For example:

Drink an eight-ounce glass of water before every meal. If you’re trying to lose weight, that’s a great double dip, since you’ll partly fill your stomach and feel full faster. Three meals? Twenty-four ounces.

Use a water bottle to keep track. Mine holds 32 ounces. I put a piece of tape on the cap and mark off how many times I empty it. Drinking two bottles puts you over or close to the target, respective to gender, and three well above. I usually drink four in a day, so I’m more than good to go (frequent bathroom visits pun intended). 

Easy. And effective.

Also keep in mind that other liquids count. If you drink a bottle of diet soda a day, that counts. Coffee counts. Tea counts.

Yeah, you could get all technical and say caffeine is a diuretic and liquids with caffeine shouldn’t count towards your target, but then again, research shows caffeine doesn’t appear to increase the risk of dehydration

So keep it simple. As with most things in life, success is based on doing the right things most of the time. You don’t have to be perfect. Didn’t drink enough fluids today? 

No problem. Get back on track tomorrow. 

The key is to focus on doing more of what is good for you, and do it more often. That approach is not only good for improving your health and longevity, but for achieving anything worthwhile.

Because we are what we are, but with consistent effort over a period of time, we can become what we hope to become.

Including a lot healthier, over a lot longer lifespan.–c63qBlbHUVjStpSnENYk4h88Lk_30LLUBcZi34lky88nHFfby0aZqbbK5wX1MS9ZhAQzO0Vlot30UfkkLP5rB1oMqRq5NnSM_t

Topley’s Top 10 – January 9, 2023

1. Microsoft Sitting on 200 Week Moving Average

2. Global Rate Rise…German 10 Year…Negative -50 Basis Points to 2.31%

3. Bitcoin Cash to U.S. Dollar Chart….$1700 to $99.

4. Housing Bear?….Lennar Homebuilder 52 Week High

5. Toyota and Tesla Charts Getting Closer

Chart of the Day

Tesla’s ($TSLA) share-price losses seem both ‘useful and rational.’ (chart via @ycharts)

(  Found at Abnormal Returns Blog

6. Big Tech Close to Double the Amount of Employees vs. 2019

Barrons By Tae Kim

7. Electric Vehicle Backlog


8. 71% of Americans Approve of Unions But Only 6% of Private Sector Employees Unionized.

This week, Microsoft recognized the company’s first ever labor union, formed of 300 employees in their videogame unit, ZeniMax. The tech giant now joins the list of other major organizations, such as AppleStarbucksAmazon and Alphabet, that have seen unionization attempts, some of which went better than others.  State of the union(s)Although labor movements at high-profile companies now routinely grab headlines, they remain unrepresentative of the bigger picture in America. In the last 50 years, private sector union membership has declined dramatically — in the 1970s nearly 25% of private sector workers were trade unionists, today that figure is closer to 6%. The public sector, however, is a different story, with union membership holding steady.
Why such disparity has emerged between private and public is a topic for an economics PhD. Some have argued that organizing efforts are just more difficult in the private sector, where bankruptcies and corporate restructuring are common. Others argue that legislative changes have made organizing difficult, and there is also evidence that unions are simply more effective when bargaining for better wages in the public sector — making them more likely to persist.
Don’t call it a comeback?Whether the current momentum translates into a meaningful unionization trend remains to be seen, but public perception suggests it might be more than a few isolated cases. A recent Gallup survey showed that 71% of Americans approve of unions, the highest number since 1965, and other studies suggest Gen-Z is more pro-union than any other generation.

9. Moscow to mobilize 500,000 new conscripts, Kyiv military intelligence says

Ukrainian officials predict the new Russian draft effort will begin after January 15.

KYIV — Ukrainian intelligence officials are warning that the Kremlin plans a new mobilization wave for up to 500,000 men to fight in Ukraine starting in mid-January.

The new conscription drive, which would be larger than last autumn’s Russian draft of 300,000, would include a push in big cities, including some strategic industrial centers in Russia, Andriy Cherniak, an official with the Main Military Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, told POLITICO on Saturday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin in December said a suggested new conscription wave would be pointless as currently only 150,000 previously mobilized soldiers have been deployed in the invasion of Ukraine. The rest are still training or serving in the Russian rear

Russia announced the end of the earlier “partial” mobilization of 300,000 men on October 31. But Cherniak claimed that Moscow has continued secret conscription all along.

Now, Ukrainian military intelligence expects a new major wave of official mobilization might begin after January 15.

“This time the Kremlin will mobilize residents of big cities, including the strategic industries centers all over Russia,” Cherniak said. “This will have a very negative impact on the already suffering Russian economy.”

Moscow plans to use the 500,000 extra conscripts in a possible new massive offensive against Ukraine, the Guardian reported, citing Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of Ukrainian military intelligence.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russia has seen more than 100,000 soldiers killed in action in Ukraine. The latest blow that Moscow’s army has endured was in Makiivka, a town in the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast, where hundreds of newly conscripted Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in a high-precision strike by Ukrainian forces on January 1. Although the number of casualties cannot be verified independently, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged the deaths of 89 soldiers, which makes it the biggest one-time military loss recognized by Moscow in the Ukraine war.

Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief Commander Valery Zaluzhnyy, in a December interview with the Economist, said Russia will conduct a new attempt at a massive offensive against Ukraine in February-March 2023. It might not start in Donbas, but in the direction of Kyiv through Belarus.

10. Self Improvement Tips for 2022

What a year.Whilst the pandemic ceases to end, I can at least say I’ve ticked off many of the personal growth goals I set myself this time last year and turn to the new year with a clean slate, fresh goals, and a determination to succeed.

With this in mind, it’s time to go over some personal growth reminders for experienced, and novice, personal growth enthusiasts. If 2021 wasn’t your year, there’s no reason 2022 can’t not. The pandemic may bring with it restraints on our external wishes but when it comes to internal work, there is always time to work on ourselves.

Here are 4 personal growth tips to remember for the New Year.

1. Make Use of The Past But Don’t Get Lost In It

In retrospect, the past 3 years of my personal growth work have brought with it one overriding theme: Remaining present.

As someone who was prone to rumination, overthinking, and self-depreciation, the past may as well have been my second reality rather than the well of knowledge I ought to have returned to from time to time. Nowadays, I keep both feet in the present and only turn to the past when necessary.

The past is to be learned from and to be used to help guide motives in the present — not a source of constant misery that many of us use it for. In overidentifying with past mistakes, or past versions of ourselves, we prevent ourselves from evolving in the present.

In that, I am aware of my previous pain and trauma’s but I no longer identify with them. They are to be used as reminders; for how far I’ve come, where I am headed, or what to avoid doing. What they aren’t is an anchor to a past version of myself I wish to escape, but never evade as I still remain mentally tied.

As Eckhart Tolle famously says,

You cannot find yourself by going into the past. You can find yourself by coming into the present. — Eckhart Tolle

2. The Future Is Never Certain

Just as the past should be used as a tool for our present-day reality, our future, likewise, should be turned to when, and if, we need it.

Our futures are wildly uncertain. We can’t guarantee our experience of love won’t end in heartache, that our job will be secure in a year, that our friends or family won’t get sick, or where we’ll be in a year’s time. Yes, we can have an idea but even then, there are no guarantees.

This can bring a lot of anxiety to some. As humans, we seek certainty as it brings safety and uncertainty, danger; to ourselves, or those around us. It’s important to get comfortable with this fact. To get comfortable with the fact that no matter how hard we try we can’t make people love us, accept us, or heal others of their afflictions. Each of us are living our own lives.

When we try to control our external world, we lose touch with our internal one. We may turn to self-abandoning tactics and people-pleasing to feel accepted, or try to fix others all the while neglecting ourselves. While caring for others and wanting things to work out is good, we mustn’t do it at expense of us.

The present is all you truly have. Enjoy it for whatever it brings. Certainly, be mindful of where you are wanting to go and use your past accordingly if need be but don’t get lost in the future. All you have is the present moment; the past is but a past present moment and your future, a future present moment that can’t be predicted.

Relinquish control; work to stay grounded.

3. Boundaries Are Your Best Friend

Daring to set boundaries is about having the courage to love ourselves, even when we risk disappointing others. — Brene Brown

Contrary to popular belief among us people-pleasers, boundaries are not the enemy; they’re our friend, and being able to set appropriate ones and communicate them effectively to those around you is one of the most self-serving things you can hope to do in the New Year.

Boundaries are centered on self-respect. It’s about knowing what is good for your wellbeing and not settling for any less. In being boundaryless we risk being too nice and self-abandoning; two traits that are not only self-deprecating but also ironically unattractive to those around us.

There’s never not a great time to start setting boundaries so start getting clear on what you want and how you wish to be treated today.

4. Take Note of Your Intuition — It’s Here To Help You

When I first started this blog a year ago I wasn’t entirely sure why I felt the need to do it — I simply felt pulled in this direction. With more awareness, I realized it was my intuition guiding me.

Looking back at my childhood I was always creative; writing and reading and investing in my creativity. I lost it as I grew up but my subconscious held onto my love of it.

Our intuition is just as real and based in science, as our ability to logically think. It is the subconscious analysis of our reality against the out-of-touch memories of our past — creating a feeling or knowing, of what we must do. Whilst prone to faults just as our conscious thinking is, it holds secrets we may be unaware of at the surface of our mind.

In the new year, begin to lean into this supposedly 6th sense and garner an awareness over what your life may be lacking. Long before I began making art out of my personal growth and sharing my story, I had a deep sense that I needed to move in this direction. You may call it spirituality but I call it my intuition knowing I was in a rough place and wanting me to break free.

You can, too.

What is it you truly want? What is it that needs to change? What old hobby have you forgotten? What isn’t serving you?

Sometimes, we look outwards for answers when they’re located within.

-Above The Middle


Topley’s Top 10 – January 6, 2023

1. Retail Traders Giving Up on Tesla

Business Insider Carla Mozée -While Tesla’s stock price was under pressure last year, retail investors loaded up on the shares. Vanda’s research showed cumulative net retail purchases soared by more than 420% to $15.41 billion, edging out Apple as the most-purchased single stock by individual investors in 2022.  Retail flows on Wednesday ended at $37.8 million but were “significantly weak” even as the EV maker’s stock found a respite from recent losses and surged by 5.1%.

2. Classic Run on Bank at Crypto Lender Silvergate

Silvergate Crypto Bank-Classic Run on Bank Wolf Street Losses and write-downs to wipe out much of its equity capital.

Silvergate reported a loss of $718 million on the sale of securities in Q4, a huge loss for a tiny bank like this.

It said it will incur more losses on the sale of securities. And it may have to mark to market the securities it doesn’t sell, for a loss possibly as high as another $300 million. It will book an impairment charge in Q4 to reflect some or all of this.

It took a $196 million loss in Q4 to write off the crypto technology it had bought from Facebook back when Facebook skuttled its own efforts to build the Diem stablecoin.

And it disclosed other write-offs and charges today that we’ll get to in a moment.

So, let’s see… Silvergate started out Q4 with $1.33 billion in equity capital:

  • Minus $718 million due to the loss on the sale of securities;
  • Minus a portion or all of $300 million on the loss from securities that it will sell, or that it may have to mark to market;
  • Minus $196 million on the write-off of the crypto technology it bought from Facebook;
  • Minus the other losses and write-downs we’ll get to in a moment.

Combined, this could wipe out much of Silvergate’s $1.33 billion in equity capital.

3. Cathie Wood ARKK Net Fund Inflows 2022

Found at Irrelevant Investor Blog

4. Tech Stock Insider Buying Falling Off a Cliff

Sentiment Trader

5-6. Two Charts from Callum Thomas on Earnings

Callum Thomas Chart Storm Peak Earnings: After a roaring rebound post-covid (thanks to reopening, massive fiscal + monetary stimulus, and an element of inflation pushing up earnings in nominal terms), the peak has now been seen.  Compared to the experience of global equities ex-US the surge in US earnings does have an air of unsustainability to it — and perhaps between the two, US has the most to lose…

Source: Topdown Charts @TopdownCharts

US vs Global Equities – Price: The big surge and breakaway of the USA vs rest of world ~earnings~ in that previous chart has been a key driver of the big surge in US vs global relative *price* performance (whodathunkit).

Interestingly though this trade ran into firm resistance this year…

Source: Topdown Charts@TopdownCharts

7. Solar Panel Material Price Plunges Amid Glut


The price of critical material for solar panels plunged this week as supply has caught up with demand, according to BloombergNEF. 

The average cost of the highest grade of polysilicon slid another 20% this week due to oversupplied conditions. This also led to a 1% drop in solar panel prices to the lowest nominal value since May 2021. 

According to the China Silicon Industry Association, polysilicon produced in China increased to 96,700 metric tons in December 2022, 7.5% more than in the previous month. New polysilicon manufacturing capacity in China boosted domestic production in 2022 by 66%. 

BNEF analysis shows polysilicon prices are in freefall. Now at $24 per kilogram.


Daily Time Waste Blog Based on the way the majority votes, most stated get labeled as either “blue” or “red.” We usually think this way because there is only one winner, and there is usually a significant enough majority to recognize election patterns. However, if we could represent the states in shades of purple, this is what the map would look like.

9. Ten States with the Most and Least Net Domestic Migration

WSJ By The Editorial Board

10. How the World’s Best Leaders Use the ‘Ripcord Rule’ to Tackle Their Toughest Decisions


Fighter pilot Michael Allen pulls the safety pins out of an ejection seat as he pre-flights an F-15 at Aviano AFB, Italy. Photo: Getty Images

Here are three quick questions. Ready?

1.     What are the 2 or 3 worst things that could happen at your business?

2.     What would you do immediately, if any of them happened?

3.     Finally, imagine that you had to shut down everything quickly. How would you do it in a manner that lets you relaunch smoothly when the danger has passed?

These are incredibly tough questions to answer in the abstract, and they’re even harder when you’re under pressure.

Yet, we’ve had a lot of examples recently in which leaders had to decide things quickly under tragic circumstances: for example, the NFL game where Damar Hamlin was left fighting for his life on the field, and the Utah ski resort in which a member of the ski patrol fell off a lift and was killed.

These are dire situations, and they made me think about the U.S. military, where training for the worst case scenario is part of the job.

It’s done by planning and building muscle memory to the point at which soldiers, sailors — and as we’ll see, aviators — can react quickly and recite the protocol for events that they hope will never happen.

I call this the Ripcord Rule, because the most compelling examples I can imagine are ones in which you’re literally falling through the sky and something goes wrong with no time to think: either an airborne operation in which there is a parachute malfunction, or else the detailed, memorized checklist of things to do when a fighter pilot has to eject out of a doomed airplane.

The second example is more on my mind, because not long ago, I happened to have watched an interview with retired Navy fighter pilot Capt. Sam “Slammer” Richardson, who described what happened when he was forced to eject during a training exercise over the Pacific Ocean.

You can watch the video of his interview below, but the short version is that he tells a compelling story, and describes out all the little intermediate steps involved.

For example, as Richardson describes his ejection from an F-14 Tomcat fighter plane back in the 1980s, the protocol starts months or even years before the emergency, when he worked to memorized everything involved–just in case the worst-case ever happened:

·         First, as Richardson describes, you quickly separate the canopy from the fuselage, so that the escaping pilot and “back-seater” don’t eject directly into it. (Basically, the thing that went wrong and caused Goose’s death in Top Gun.)

·         Next, there’s the fact that the back-seater’s seat ejects a fraction of a second before the front-seat pilot, because otherwise the explosion from the front-seater’s ejection could burn the back-seater.

It goes on: a parade of small decisions and engineering choices–what you’re supposed to be thinking about as you make sure the parachute opens correctly, what you’re supposed to do during the several minutes it might take to float down to the ground, etc.

It’s pretty intriguing stuff — exactly what to do in a worst-case scenario, and frankly how to weigh the risk of death or injury versus the certainty of destroying a $40 million aircraft in the first place.

(Even that initial decision is standardized and committed to memory: basically, you learn to think about ejecting when you’re (a) in an out-of-control airplane, and (b) you’ve fallen below 10,000 feet.)

Now, neither you nor I is likely ever to eject from an F-14 Tomcat. (This is especially true since the F-14 is now retired, but you get the point.)

But, if you run an organization, you do face the possibility of a worst-case scenarios happening before you even have time to process them. And having thought through what you’ll do ahead of time is invaluable.

·         What do you do if, God forbid, a customer or an employee has a serious medical emergency? How do you get them help? What do you do for all your other other customers and employees who have likely just witnessed something traumatic?

·         Imagine a less than life-and-death emergency, but still important: a massive database failure or security breach, or a crucial supplier that suddenly cuts out and makes it impossible for you to fulfill orders. Who do you contact? How do you prioritize? What systems do you shut down immediately?

·         When do you “pull the ripcord,” so to speak? And if you do so, have you thought through ahead of time each and every little decision you’ll have to make under intense pressure and time constraints?

Nobody wants to think about these kinds of things. They’re not pleasant. But if you do the mental exercises ahead of time, and put together procedures for what you’ll do in the worst-case scenario — if you follow the Ripcord Rule, in other words — you’ll be much better prepared if the time ever comes.

And the people you’re leading will be grateful that you did.

(Here’s Captain Richardson’s story.)

How the World’s Best Leaders Use the ‘Ripcord Rule’ to Tackle Their Toughest Decisions |