Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Top 10 March 20 2024

1. SMCI -30% Correction


2. AI ETFs Trailing S&P 2024

WSJ Among 17 ETFs specializing in AI and related disruptive technology, only three have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past year. By Jason Zweig

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/ai-disruptive-innovation-funds-2b9d31b3


 

3. IBIT -18% Correction

$44 to $36 for Bitcoin IShares


4. Top 20 S&P Companies = 54% of Stock Buybacks


5. 20 Year Treasury ETF-Longest Losing Streak Since 2002..Investors Betting Higher for Longer

Dave Lutz Jones Trading STREAKING– Treasury ETF Hit by Record Losing Streak, $2 Billion of Outflows – With solid economic growth pressuring bond yields and sapping demand for safe assets, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (ticker TLT) fell again on Monday for eight straight declines. That’s the longest losing streak since its 2002 inception. For five weeks in a row, the fund has seen outflows, with withdrawals totaling $2 billion over the stretch. 

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2024/consumer-prices-up-3-1-percent-from-january-2023-to-january-2024.html


6. Homebuilder Confidence Turning Up

The United States: In the housing market, sentiment among homebuilders is on the rise.

Source: The Daily Shot https://dailyshotbrief.com/


7. Building Permits Up


8. Home prices rose 2.4 times faster than inflation since 1960s, study finds. What that means for homebuyers

Ana Teresa Solá-CNBC

  • If home prices increased at the same rate as inflation since 1963, the median price of a typical house in the U.S. would be $177,511, according to a new research by Clever, a real estate data company.
  • In reality, the cost of a typical house in the U.S. is nearly half a million dollars: the median price for a home in the U.S. $412,778, according to Redfin data.

While inflation is 10 times higher now than 60 years ago, home prices are 24 times more expensive, a new study found.

If home prices increased at the same rate as inflation since 1963, the median price of a typical house in the U.S. would be $177,511, according to a new research by Clever, a real estate data company.

In reality, the cost of a typical house in the U.S. is closer to half a million dollars: the median price for a home in the U.S. $412,778, according to new Redfin data.

Today, it’s harder for adults to buy homes than it was for their parents’ generation,” said Matt Brannon, a data writer at Clever and the author of the report.

Why home price growth has outpaced inflation

While mortgage rates have contributed to high costs, supply and demand have also affected the price growth of homes in the U.S., Brannon said.

“When demand for other consumer products comes up, or when it increases, it’s usually not too hard for people to scale up supply,” Brannon said. “Whereas houses take months to build at a time.”

The average time to complete a newly built single-family home is about 9.6 months, according to the 2022 Survey of Construction conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Zoning restrictions, along with prohibitive land costs, can also make it hard to even secure the opportunity to build a new home, Brannon said.

To increase housing supply, local policymakers would need to lower the barriers for builders by easing land-use and zoning regulations, which determine factors like the maximum height of a building or the minimum size of a lot, C. Kirabo Jackson, an economist and member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, previously told CNBC.

“Production can’t move as quickly in housing as it does in other industries,” Brannon said. “That often means the price goes up when there isn’t enough supply to meet demand.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/why-home-prices-have-risen-faster-than-inflation-since-the-1960s.html


9. Having Trouble Sleeping? This 5-Minute Brain Hack Can Help You Be More Rested and Focused-Inc.

EXPERT OPINION BY JASON ATEN, TECH COLUMNIST @JASONATEN

It doesn’t seem like much of a stretch to say that the single most important thing you can do to be more focused during the day is to get more rest at night. No one is at their best if they’re tired. Sleep is maybe your single most powerful productivity tool, so if there are things you can do to help yourself get more, that seems worthwhile. 

Of course, getting more sleep isn’t always that easy. In fact, many people don’t get enough sleep, according to research. There are a number of reasons this is the case, but one of the biggest barriers to getting enough sleep is falling asleep in the first place.

If you struggle to fall asleep because your mind races, this simple 5-minute brain hack can help. Before you get in bed, take a pen and a piece of paper and spend five minutes writing down everything on your mind

There’s nothing magical about the type of paper you use, though I recommend using a small notepad or a notecard that you can keep next to your bed. That way, if you are lying in bed and can’t stop thinking about something, you can quickly reach over and write it down.

By the way, I strongly recommend you not try to do this on your iPhone, even if that’s where you keep your to-do lists. The reason, which should be obvious, is that once you pick up your phone, even if it’s to dump your brain, you’ll inevitably find a few dozen other distractions that steal away your focus and add to the list of things you’re thinking about. 

This is usually some combination of tasks you need to complete, as well as other things that you’re stressed about. Maybe you have an important meeting that is causing you anxiety. Take those thoughts captive by writing down a simple word or phrase that captures your feelings. In the case of the meeting, you might just write a reminder that “Everything is set for the meeting.” 

If there’s still something you need to do for the meeting, just write it down so your brain can stop worrying about whether you’ll remember. You’ll be surprised how much you can free up brain bandwidth just by writing down a simple list before you try to go to sleep. 

By far, the greatest amount of worry is caused by loose thoughts and things your brain is trying to hold on to so you don’t forget. The beauty of taking a few minutes to write them down is that you give your brain permission to let go. Knowing they’re written down and waiting for you in the morning is usually enough to shut off the noise and let your brain turn off. 

That’s why I call it a brain hack. It’s a way to dump all of the thoughts and information that race through your brain and get them down on paper, where you can organize or act on them later–you know, when you aren’t trying to go to sleep. It’s a way of hacking the way your brain works so that you can get to sleep and be more rested.

By the way, that list you just made is useful beyond your brain letting them go. You just made yourself a to-do list so that you can get started in the morning on the things that matter most. That list is the stuff your brain was holding on to, and it’s the perfect place to start when you think through what you need to accomplish the next morning. And, it only takes you five minutes. 

Having Trouble Sleeping? This 5-Minute Brain Hack Can Help You Be More Rested and Focused | Inc.com

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/new-job-hot-spots-phoenix-orlando-albuquerque-2314675a


10. 9 Rare Traits in Every High Performer

From Chris Donnelly

 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/donnellychris/

Top 10 March 19 2024

1. Follow Up to Copper Charts from Yesterday


2. Indian Options Frenzy Dwarfs America

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-13/india-s-options-trading-boom-hides-billions-of-losses-for-retail-investors?sref=GGda9y2L


3. 2023 The U.S. Added Record Solar Energy Capacity

It’s Official: America Is Experiencing a Solar Power Explosion Unmatched in History

For the first time since WWII, a renewable energy source has outpaced fossil fuels. BY DARREN ORF-Popular Mechanics.

  • In 2023, the U.S. added more solar capacity that ever before, at 32.4 gigawatts.
  • This added capacity surpassed any other energy source in 2023, marking the first time a renewable energy source outpaced fossil fuels since World War II.
  • The Inflation Reduction Act, along with the Biden Administration’s push for U.S. solar manufacturing, means these record-breaking years will hopefully be the year-after-year norm.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/green-tech/a60130391/solar-breaks-record-2023/

TAN Solar Stock ETF Still Sideways -50% from Highs

www.stockcharts.com


4. Oracle Rally Last Week was Breakout on Chart


5. Real Time Inflation is 1-2%?

Jeremy Siegal WisdomTree

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2024/consumer-prices-up-3-1-percent-from-january-2023-to-january-2024.html


6. The Bitcoin Halving …We are at 19.6 million tokens with stop at 21 million tokens

Barrons Halvings happen roughly every four years and will continue until Bitcoins in circulation hit 21 million tokens. So far, more than 19.6 million Bitcoins have been mined, leaving 1.4 million to be issued. Since Bitcoin has no underlying value—only a cost to produce—its price is subject to supply and demand. Halving tends to restrict supply.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-bulls-await-the-halving-heres-a-guide-e9499c83?mod=past_editions


 

7. Office Vacancy Rate Breaks Out to New High

Alpine Macro


8. European AI Act-First Legal Framework to Address AI

Summary of AI Act in Europe

The AI Act is the first-ever legal framework on AI, which addresses the risks of AI and positions Europe to play a leading role globally.

https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/regulatory-framework-ai#:~:text=The%20AI%20Act%20is%20the,play%20a%20leading%20role%20globally.&text=The%20AI%20Act%20aims%20to,regarding%20specific%20uses%20of%20AI


9. Top 5 and Bottom 5 Areas for Job Growth

WSJ By Te-Ping Chen

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/new-job-hot-spots-phoenix-orlando-albuquerque-2314675a


10. 3 red flags recruiters look out for in job candidates: They’re how you ‘get blacklisted,’ says ex-Amazon recruiter

Gili Malinsky-CNBC

A majority of people, 95%, intend to look for a new job this year, according to a January 2024 survey by jobsite Monster. And many anticipate it will be challenging. More than half, 68% say they think it will be difficult to find one given the state of the economy.

While finding work opportunities can be challenging, there are ways to conduct yourself that could make doing so even harder.

“There’s something called validation seeking behavior, aka desperation,” says Lindsay Mustain, a former Amazon recruiter and current CEO of career coaching company Talent Paradigm. She adds that “it’s that ‘pick me’ energy that actually repels the opportunity.”

Here’s how to avoid giving it off.

Don’t apply to a company over and over

First, avoid applying to jobs in the company over and over again, especially in a short period of time.

If Mustain sees that “you’ve applied 20 times in the last two years and we’ve never hired you once,” she says, that’s a red flag. She immediately thinks, “something’s wrong with that candidate for them to have not been hired by this point.”

Regardless of how much of a fit you might be for the job, a recruiter’s likely not going to take the time to investigate your candidacy further.

“This is how you can kind of get blacklisted,” she says. Try to limit your internal applications to a maximum of five roles that you closely align with in the company.

Don’t use LinkedIn’s ‘open to work’ banner

Another red flag for a recruiter: the “open to work” banner on LinkedIn.

Just by putting up that one signal on the site, “we already know that you need something,” says Mustain. It means that you might not be as picky when it comes to your job opportunities, that you might not be moving your career forward in a measured way that helps you build skills and get better.

“It reduces the appearance of being a high caliber candidate,” she says. Plus, it changes the dynamic in a conversation with a hiring manager. Now, they’re not trying to convince you of a great job opportunity because they want you at the company. Instead, you’re trying to convince them to consider you.

Nolan Church, CEO of talent marketplace Continuum and ex-Google recruiter, agrees. Using the banner “actually feels to a hiring manager like desperation,” he previously told CNBC Make It.

“It’s kind of like asking for a handout on the corner,” says Mustain.

Don’t show up ‘very wounded and hurt’ on social media

Finally, if you’re unemployed, don’t post your unemployment status on social media, especially if you’re inclined to do so from a place of hurt. Mustain gives the example of a post like the following:

“I just got laid off and I have two kids at home and I really need another job, like, as soon as possible. So if you could please introduce me to every person that you know that has a possible opening, I would be so grateful.”

Though sad and a cause for sympathy, people who post like statuses are “showing up very wounded and hurt,” she says. They’re “bleeding out on social media.” Ultimately, they’re showing a weakness in a similar way to people who include the “open to work” banner on their LinkedIn profiles. It’s clear they need something.

A post like that “repels people because they’re not coming from a place of strength,” says Mustain.

Instead, if you’ve been laid off and want to signal to the world that you’re looking for new opportunities, try framing the situation as a new beginning or a chance for growth and sharing concrete examples of your past contributions and successes. You can also share what you’ve learned and how your experiences have equipped you for future challenges. All of this “demonstrates adaptability and a forward-looking mindset to potential employers,” she says.

Remember, “you don’t need any job,” says Mustain. “You want a good job.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/11/red-flags-recruiters-look-out-for-in-job-candidates.html

 

Top 10 March 18 2024

1.Record Inflow to U.S. Equity Funds…$56B One Week….Sounds Big But $6 Trillion in Money Markets.

Flows Show:  Similarly, US equity fund flows show clear FOMO.

Source:  Daily Shot


2.The Price Between Puts and Calls has Narrowed to Historic Low.

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading A closely-watched gauge of stock market sentiment has hit its most extreme level since 2008, as options traders increasingly focus on capturing further gains in soaring indices rather than worrying about a potential sell-off – Investors are so bullish that “fear of a crash-up” now trumps “any meaningful concern of a correction lower,” said Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset strategy at Nomura, who wrote in a note to clients this week that markets “are foaming at the mouth, FT reports.


3.Non-Profit Tech Stocks Not Rallying This Time.

Jefferies Zach Goldberg

TS Lombard Chart https://www.tslombard.com/


4.Mega-Cap Standard Deviation vs. Rest


5.Copper Rally-Analysts Pointing Out Copper Rally as Positive Tell for China/International?

Copper Contract Rallying to 2023 Levels.

Copper Miners are Making Run at All-Time Highs.


6.Meanwhile Chinese Young People are Loading Up on Gold.

Gold Beans All the Rage With China’s Gen Z as Deflation Bites

Bloomberg News

(Bloomberg) — With China’s deflation at its worst in 15 years, a volatile stock market and bank interest rates too low for her liking, 18-year-old Tina Hong is placing her financial security in gold beans.

Weighing as little as one gram, the beans — and other forms of gold jewelry — are increasingly viewed as the safest investment bet for young Chinese in an era of economic uncertainty. It’s part of a larger consumer trend for all things gold — from bullion to beans and bracelets — that has gripped the mainland.

“It’s basically impossible to lose money from buying gold,” reasoned Hong, a college freshman studying computer science in Fujian province who in January began buying gold beans because of their relatively low cost of about 600 yuan ($83) per gram. She has more than two grams of the beans and will continue buying them as long as costs are lower than international gold prices, she said.

Branded as an investment entry point for young consumers, the beans, which come in glass jars, are the latest hot-selling items in Chinese jewelry stores. Generation Z consumers — buffeted by high youth unemployment and the nation’s slide into deflation — are now among the top consumers of gold accessories in the world’s second-largest economy, according to the 2023 China Jewelry Consumer Trends Report by Chow Tai Fook Jewelery Group Ltd. The attraction of gold comes as people pull back on shopping amid months of disappointing growth.

China Gold Rush

A lack of faith in traditional investments has fueled this new China gold rush.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-beans-rage-china-gen-000000851.html


7.Musk Now Leading U.S. Defense …Morningbrew

DEFENSE

Elon Musk is being enlisted to protect the US

“Starlink Mission” (CC BY-NC 2.0) by Official SpaceX Photos

SpaceX CEO and terminally online memelord Elon Musk is becoming an increasingly vital figure in the US defense system.

The company that’s been in the news lately for its moonbound megarocket was awarded a $1.8 billion contract in 2021 to build a spy network of hundreds of Starshield satellites for the National Reconnaissance Office, Reuters reported over the weekend. The low-Earth orbit satellites would support ground forces and enhance the ability of the US to locate targets globally.

The SpaceX partnership reflects the US’ urgent efforts to win the latest iteration of the space race.

  • China announced plans earlier this month to create its own constellation of low-orbit satellites to compete with Starlink.
  • US intelligence officials warned in February that Russia is developing a nuclear space weapon capable of destroying satellites.

Musk’s satellites have been a geopolitical football: Ukraine has claimed that Russia is using thousands of Musk’s Starlink satellite terminals to gain a tactical advantage during its invasion, starting a squabble with the Biden administration. Starlink, however, is a separate entity from Starshield, which is designed for military or government uses.

Go down the rabbit hole: The New Yorker dug into the US government’s reliance on Musk for national security.—DL

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


8.World Peak Population.

Capital Group Jared Franz

How population decline could upend the global economy | Capital Group


9.U.S. Migration Trends.

https://jbrec.com/insights/3-migration-shifts-shaping-housing-markets-in-2024/


10.Inaction Increases Stress.

Tiny Thought(s)-Farnam Street Blog

*

“It’s easier to get a smart person to do something hard than to get them to do something easy that doesn’t matter.”

**

“When you know what needs to be done, inaction increases stress. You feel a lot less stress when you do the things within your control that move you closer to your objective. Action reduces stress.”

***

“A lack of routine causes more problems than poor choices. Routines turn desired behavior into default behavior.”

https://fs.blog/

 

 

Top 10 Friday March 15,2024

1.Semiconductor ETF SMH -7% From Highs.


2.NVDA -10% Correction …52-Week High $974…Hit $870


3.S&P Keeps Moving Higher vs. Low Chance of 2024 Rate Cuts

Zerohedge Stocks vs. Rate Cut Expectations

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bad-news-bad-news-stocks-bonds-crypto-gold


4.Euro Granolas Not Far Behind Mag 7

From The Big Picture Blog


5.Update on Plunging Used Tesla Prices.


6.That Was Quick….A New Crypto Unicorn Already.

Bloomberg Crypto’s Berachain Becomes Unicorn in $69 Million Funding Round

· Berachain blockchain platform focuses on decentralized finance

· Venture capital appetite for crypto reviving amid bull market

By Muyao ShenHannah Miller, and Ryan Weeks

The Berachain blockchain platform is becoming a unicorn in a more than $69 million funding round co-led by Brevan Howard Digital and Framework Ventures, according to people familiar with the matter.

The project, which is raising the money by selling digital tokens, will be valued at $1.5 billion, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. Berachain focuses on decentralized finance, or DeFi, which enables trading, lending and borrowing without the use of traditional intermediaries like banks.

Berachain is one of the first crypto projects to achieve unicorn status — a valuation of at least $1 billion — in the current digital-asset bull run marked by record highs for Bitcoin. The fundraising signals venture capital investors are becoming more interested in crypto companies after deals collapsed last year.

Both Brevan Howard Digital and Framework Ventures declined to comment. Berachain didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/crypto-s-berachain-becomes-unicorn-in-69-million-vc-round?srnd=markets-vp&sref=GGda9y2L


7.Productivity Growth Led by U.S.

Jack Ablin-Cresset

Will Productivity Growth Allow Us to Have Our Cake and Eat It, Too?  | Cresset Capital


8.Italy Left for Dead…#2 in Productivity Above and Stock Market to New Highs.


9.Migration Hot Spots in U.S.

John Burns Real Estate.

https://jbrec.com/insights/3-migration-shifts-shaping-housing-markets-in-2024/


10.Seven Reasons to Work

Dan Haylett  |  

ARE YOU READY TO swap your office chair for a rocking chair? Hold that thought.

Before you dive into the world of endless vacations and gardening, consider that keeping a toe—and perhaps your whole foot—in the workforce might be the secret ingredient to a fulfilling retirement. Don’t believe me? Here are seven compelling reasons to keep working at least part-time.

1. Stay young at heart. Remember the excitement of landing your first job? That thrill doesn’t have to end. Continuing to work, even part-time, keeps your brain active and challenged. It’s like a gym membership for your mind, warding off the cobwebs and keeping you mentally sharp. Learning new skills and adapting to new environments can be the fountain of youth for your brain.

2. Social butterflies keep fluttering. One often-forgotten benefit of work is the social connections. Picture this: engaging conversations by the water cooler, team lunches, and the camaraderie of working toward a common goal. These interactions are invaluable and keep you connected to diverse groups of people, ensuring that your social life remains vibrant and dynamic.

3. Even more financial freedom. Who doesn’t love an extra bit of cash? Continuing to work means more financial breathing room. You can fund those dream vacations, spoil the grandkids or simply enjoy the peace of mind that comes with a steady income. It’s not just about the money. It’s about the freedom and choices that money can provide.

4. Purpose, passion and pride. Work can be a significant source of all three. Whether you’re mentoring younger colleagues, contributing to meaningful projects or just being part of a team, these experiences validate your skills and experience. It’s about feeling valued and knowing you’re making a difference.

5. Keep the doctors at bay. Believe it or not, working can be good for your health. Studies suggest that those who continue working tend to enjoy better mental and physical health. The combination of mental stimulation, social interaction and a sense of purpose creates a powerful health cocktail.

6. Flexibility is the new black. Retirement doesn’t have to be all or nothing. Many retirees find joy in flexible work arrangements like part-time jobs, consulting or freelance gigs. This flexibility allows you to balance work with leisure, family time and hobbies. With the right job, you get to design your golden years exactly how you want them.

7. The joy of lifelong learning. Ever wanted to try a completely different career or learn a new skill? Now’s your chance. Retirement can be the perfect time to explore new interests or passions in a low-pressure environment. Who says you can’t be an intern at age 60 or start a new venture at 70?

Bottom line: It’s your adventure. Retirement is a journey, not a destination. By incorporating work into your retirement plan, you’re not just adding years to your life—you’re adding life to your years. It’s about finding the right balance that makes you jump out of bed each morning, excited for the day ahead. So, what will your retirement adventure look like?

Dan Haylett is a financial planner and head of growth at TFP Financial Planning, a U.K. firm that specializes in modern-day retirement planning. Dan’s “pull back the duvet every morning” purpose is helping clients spend their time and money on what’s truly important to them. A version of the above article first appeared on Dan’s website, where you can also learn about his Humans vs. Retirement podcast. Follow him on X (Twitter) @DanHaylett. Dan’s previous article was The Changes Ahead.  

https://humbledollar.com/2024/03/seven-reasons-to-work/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 – March 14 2024

1. First Profit Taking in Technology Stocks

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/03/13/animal-spirits-the-richest-country-in-the-world/


2. Last Week We Pointed Out Possibility of AAPL Bearish Cross

50day thru 200day to downside yesterday


3. Tesla Hitting Next Support Levels from Mid-2023


4. Not a Market Timing Mechanism but Another Market Cap Concentration Chart

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanbaird88/


5. Grayscale files plans for ‘mini’ bitcoin fund, two months after GBTC’s conversion to ETF

Marketwatch Christine Idzelis
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is the largest spot bitcoin ETF, but it’s been losing assets amid competition from cheaper rival funds

Grayscale Investments is planning a second exchange-traded fund tracking spot bitcoin prices, just two months after the firm’s flagship Grayscale Bitcoin Trust converted to an ETF, according to a regulatory filing. 
The Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust will trade under the ticker “BTC,” according to a filing Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm has proposed spinning off part of its large Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC, which trades under the symbol “GBTC,” to seed the new ETF, the filing shows.
The “mini” bitcoin ETF’s fees were not disclosed in the SEC document.
Mini versions of large funds elsewhere in the ETF industry charge lower fees than their flagship versions, as they aim to appeal to buy-and-hold investors rather than big institutions. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has seen billions of dollars in outflows since its conversion to an ETF on Jan. 11, the same day that less expensive spot bitcoin ETFs also began trading.
Rival funds with lower costs than the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s 1.5% expense ratio have been attracting assets, including ETFs managed by BlackRock and Fidelity.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/grayscale-files-plans-for-mini-bitcoin-fund-two-months-after-gbtcs-conversion-to-etf-dbf31592?mod=home-page


6. Grayscale GBTC New Highs

50week thru 200week on long-term chart


7. Negative Yielding Bond Club Almost Dead

Dave Lutz Jones Trading
For the world, it’ll represent closure to the era of negative rates, a radical policymaking approach that was also adopted by the European Central Bank and some continental peers in their battles against falling prices in the 2010s.


8. Will We See Rotation to More Value/Defensive Groups?

Low Volatility ETF still has not made new highs.


9. Commercial Real Estate Prices Starting to Recover

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner
With no signs of a recession, commercial real estate prices are starting to recover, see chart below. This is helpful for the regional banks and for the broader economic recovery.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/countries-shutting-down-internet-most


10. 6 Signs That You’re Stuck in a Negative Narrative

Psychology Today Steven C. Hayes, Ph.D.
How to overcome the story of “not good enough.”
KEY POINTS

  • The stories you tell yourself about yourself shape how you think, feel, and act.
  • However, more than what you think, it matters how you react to your own thinking.
  • By holding your thoughts lightly, you can notice that these are just stories.
  • Pay attention to these six signs, and practice holding your beliefs with more lightness and flexibility.

What you think about yourself and the world around you tremendously affects your life and overall well-being. For instance, if you think you are worthy of love and capable of confronting and overcoming life’s challenges, you are more likely to act in ways that confirm these thoughts. On the other hand, if you think the opposite is true—that you’re unworthy and incompetent—odds are you will act in alignment with those as well. The stories you tell yourself about yourself (that is, what you believe about yourself), shape how you think, feel, and act.

However, this is only part of the truth and maybe not even the biggest part. Because more than what you think, it matters how you react to your own thinking. For instance, you might think, “I will never be good enough.” But you are kind, caring, and compassionate towards yourself. It’s possible! And you know that because if you look more closely at your experience, negative thoughts don’t always land in the same way.
Sometimes therapists use the term belief to talk about thoughts that are implicitly adopted and are then complied with, or fought with—and from that point of view, the real action is not what you think so much as what you believe. In my own work, we usually say people are fused with these thoughts, or that they become entangled with these thoughts, but I’ll practice what I’m preaching here and in this post, I’ll use the term belief to refer to thoughts that are adopted as a basis of action. (Settle down Steve, this ain’t gonna kill you!)

By holding your thoughts lightly, you can notice that these are just stories your mind tells you about yourself. And even though they feel true (or sometimes even are objectively true), they don’t have to dominate your life. Thoughts are just thoughts, they don’t hold power over you unless you get caught up in them.

This is often easier said than done, because we all hold onto beliefs about ourselves that seem as self-evident as the fact that fire is hot, or that water makes things wet. And much too often, we don’t even realize when we’re in the grip of our own beliefs, unable to distinguish them from what is while letting ourselves be guided by them in unhelpful or self-destructive ways. For this reason, it’s important to learn how to notice when we’re stuck in a narrative that negatively affects our lives. Looking out for the following six signs may help.

Sign #1 Overidentification With Labels

The human mind is a master at categorizing. We give names to all the birds in the sky, all the fish in the sea, and literally everything else, because it helps us make sense of the world and allows us to make better decisions that ensure our survival. Scriptural stories note how powerful this is (for example, Genesis 2: 18-20) but so do science and practical experience. For instance, if someone shouts “tiger,” we don’t need to see the animal ourselves to know that we better start running. But as useful as this ability can be, it can also turn on us, especially when we apply it to ourselves.
Words can never capture the true complexity of life, and instead reduce everything to a mere label. And when we forget this fact, which we quite often do, we mistake the label for the real thing. We then reduce ourselves to being our job, to our role within our family, to a slur somebody once called us, to a mental health diagnosis we once received, and so on. We are then no longer a living being of unfathomable complexity, but we are “a janitor,” “a mom,” “a loser,” or just “depressed.” The first sign that we’re stuck in a narrative is that we overly identify with such labels.

Sign #2 Repetition of Negative Patterns

Few habits always have “good” or “bad” results, their usefulness depends on the circumstances. Take a process such as shutting down your deepest feelings. That process is a lousy basis for a fruitful relationship, but learning how to do that for short periods can be essential if you’re working as a first responder. Similar action, different context.
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That said, if you repeatedly engage in unhelpful habits, see if you aren’t stuck in an unhelpful narrative. Despite what your mind may tell you about how you “have to” do what it says, it may be time to break its grip.

Sign #3 Blaming External Factors

Often, there are real forces holding people back in life; especially in a world that struggles to treat everyone with respect and dignity. But life also asks us to look at our own lives and discern what is within our ability to change. If all you see are external reasons to blame for your misery, see whether you are stuck in a negative narrative.
There are always some aspects within our control, even if it’s just our own perspective. By taking responsibility for ourselves, and making active choices in alignment with our goals and values, we are likely to move the needle in a better direction—step by step.

Sign #4 Difficulty Letting Go

Some experiences have such a strong impact, that they continue to haunt you long after they have passed. Maybe someone hurt you in a devastating way, and although you no longer speak to that person, their image and words still echo in your memories. And whenever you remember, and wrestle with that memory, you might feel your heart beating faster and your body tensing up. Again and again, you feel compelled to engage with that memory, imagining things going differently, and hoping to find a solution or even closure, which will never come.
Learning to let go can be hard, seemingly impossible even, especially if you can still feel the pain. And if you were to let go, you might have to let the people who have wronged you off the hook. But letting go is not about other people; it’s about being kind and compassionate towards yourself. It’s about noticing the toll this endless fighting has on you, and with patience and kindness reclaiming your focus and pulling it away from the itching wound and instead on the things you care deeply about.

Sign #5 Consistent Negative Self-Talk

Most of us tend to speak to ourselves in a manner we would rarely, if ever, use when talking to our friends and loved ones. We are then harsh in our judgments, and quick to punish ourselves with critical insults: “How could I be so stupid?!” “I’m a disappointment.” “I’ll never get it right.” And so on. This is often an automatic process, and we do it so quickly and naturally that we hardly ever notice it, let alone how it’s affecting our well-being.
You might have been led to believe that you need to be strict with yourself so that you stop messing up. But what does your experience tell you about how well that works? If you’re being honest with yourself, you likely agree that this approach didn’t deliver the promised results. You are not a horse to be whipped, you are instead deserving of kindness, patience, and compassion—especially when you make a mistake or when you are vulnerable. Changing your inner monologue requires active practice, but you can develop a more caring tone in time.

Sign #6 Unwillingness to Consider Alternatives

When we’re stuck in a negative narrative, life appears very much one-sided. Our vision gets closed down, and we become convinced that reality is just as our mind tells us it is. This is relatively easy to spot in other people, but it is much harder to notice the impact of beliefs on ourselves. When we wear red-tinted glasses, we don’t see our glasses; instead, we see the world as red. As a result, we feel compelled to act as if the world were red, not realizing that different views and perceptions are available, ones that are just as valid.
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If we’re overly concerned about our looks, we may perceive a romantic rejection as proof of our physical inadequacies. We do not notice that it may have nothing to do with ourselves. When we become stressed about all the chores we must do on any given day, we may overlook the fact that not doing them is also an option. There are always different points of view available, some of which are more empowering than others. And by noticing the stories our mind tells us about ourselves, we can more consciously choose which we will ascribe to and which we will let go. In effect, we may not be able to choose our thoughts but we can choose our beliefs.
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The narratives we tell ourselves about ourselves, and the world we live in, have a powerful impact on our mental well-being especially when we believe them. By consciously noticing these narratives – a skill you can practice in your daily life – you can learn to choose how to engage with them: whether you want to let them drive your actions or acknowledge their presence without being dictated by their demands. It’s a matter of continuously training your awareness. And whenever you get sucked back in, you can consciously refocus on what matters to you. Again and again.

Pay attention to these six signs, and practice holding your beliefs with more lightness and flexibility. You soon notice it will help you make new, better choices.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/get-out-of-your-mind/202403/6-signs-that-youre-stuck-in-a-negative-narrative