Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – May 17, 2022

1. IPO Drawdown (Sell Off) Equal to Dotcom Bubble.

Bespoke Investment Group

2. Russell 1000 Growth -24% Year to Date

IWF-Russell 1000 Growth ETF still above 200 week moving average

3. Hedge Funds See Largest Gross Risk Reduction in Last 6 Years.

Dave Lutz at Jones Trading–GS Notes May 5th to 11th saw the Largest 5-day gross reduction by hedge funds in the last 6 years

4. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Approaching 2008 Levels.

United States: University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to the lowest level since 2011.

Source: Daily Shot

5. Muni Performance Year to Date

History of Muni Drawdowns…Recent  History Since 2008 the Drawdowns were for Credit Issues….Now Higher Interest Rates.

6. Record Inflation ….Gold Sideways for Over a Year

7. $76 Billion in Inflows Last Week to ETFs…No Mass Exodus

Top 10 Creations (All ETFs)

Ticker Name Net Flows ($,mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change
BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF




SHV iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF




IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF




SPYD SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF




VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF




BIL SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF




MUB iShares National Muni Bond ETF




SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust




TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF




GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF





Top 10 Redemptions (All ETFs)

Ticker Name Net Flows ($,mm) AUM ($, mm) AUM % Change
GLD SPDR Gold Trust




VHT Vanguard Health Care ETF




XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund




VLUE iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF




QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust




GSLC Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF




VBR Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF




SRLN SPDR Blackstone Senior Loan ETF




VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF




VB Vanguard Small-Cap ETF




8. Saudi Aramaco 80% Increase in Net Profit.

Oil giant Aramco reports record first quarter as oil prices soarthumbnail



  • Oil giant Aramco reported a more-than 80% jump in net profit Sunday, topping analyst expectations and setting a new quarterly earnings record since its IPO.
  • The Saudi Arabian behemoth said net income rose 82% to $39.5 billion in the first three months of the year, up from $21.7 billion over the same period last year.
  • The Aramco results reflect an ongoing momentum in the oil and gas industry, which has benefited from a more-than 45% increase in prices since the start of the year.

9. Tesla is the Ultimate Believers vs. Non-Believers Stock….Wide Price Range by Analysts $250 to $1620

10. Take It Easy: Too Much Exercise Frazzles the Vagus Nerve

Excessive exercise lowers heart rate variability and negatively affects mood.  Christopher Bergland


  • Heart rate variability (HRV) is an index of healthy vagal tone. HRV reflects how the autonomic nervous system is responding to stress.
  • Vagus nerve stimulation increases HRV and calms the nervous system by activating parasympathetic responses that counteract stress.
  • Overstressing the body with too much exercise disrupts vagus nerve activity, as indexed by low HRV and negative mood states the next day.

Improving physical fitness requires putting stress on your system during vigorous workouts. But the quest for peak performance often backfires—the psychophysiological distress caused by excessive exercise isn’t good for you. Finding a “Goldilocks zone” where your daily workouts put enough stress on your body to improve fitness without overdoing it can be tricky.

For example, when I was trying to get in shape for extreme events like the Triple Ironman (7.2-mile swim, 336-mile bike, 78.6-mile run), the risk of injury and burnout was extremely high. Monitoring fluctuations in my heart rate variability (HRV) was a way to make sure I wasn’t overtraining.

The vagus nerve‘s ability to counteract the sympathetic nervous system‘s fight-or-flight stress response is reflected by higher HRV.

In addition to keeping tabs on how my nervous system responded to the previous day’s stress load by using HRV, I also kept tabs on day-to-day mood changes. Through trial and error, it became clear that if I was really cranky and in a foul mood the morning after an intense training session, it meant I was on the verge of getting burned out from overtraining and needed to take it easy for a day or two.

As a retired extreme-distance athlete, I know from lived experience that doing too much exercise can be harmful to your psychological and physical well-being. Overtraining is every endurance athlete’s Achilles heel. It’s so easy for one’s passion for sports and competition to become exercise fanaticism, which often leads to injuries or overwhelming psychological distress.

Overtraining, Low HRV, and Negative Moods Go Hand in Hand

New research (Alfonso and Capdevila, 2022) from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) in Spain gives us fresh insights into the link between HRV, overtraining, and mood states. Their peer-reviewed findings were published on March 30 in the PeerJ journal.

Carla Alfonso and Lluis Capdevila of UAB’s Laboratory of Sport Psychology found that if a bike workout was very intense and put too much stress on a cyclist’s body, HRV plummeted the following morning. Alfonso and Capdevila also discovered that HRV levels correlated with cyclists’ moods. Low HRV was correlated with negative mood states; higher HRV was associated with better mood states.

“The objective of the research was to explore the relation among three aspects: training, heart rate variability, and mood,” Alfonso said in a news release. “With this study, we aimed to know when an athlete must rest, because their system is saturated, and when an athlete can train, with more or less intensity, because their body is ready to assimilate the training load.”

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The main takeaway from this pilot study is that HRV and mood states seem to rise and fall in tandem. For example, if a “weekend warrior” overdoes it on Sunday, odds are that they’ll be cranky or in a bad mood Monday morning. Negative mood states the day after putting too much stress on your body by overtraining correlate with lower HRV.

Heart Rate Variability Reflects the Vagus Nerve’s Response to Stress

The vagus nerve secretes an inhibitory substance directly onto the heart, slowing it down. Heart rate variability measures how effectively vagus nerve activity is creating healthy fluctuations between heartbeats. Higher HRV indicates that the body has a robust ability to tolerate and recover from stress. Conversely, lower HRV means that the vagus nerve is “frazzled” and isn’t effectively inhibiting the sympathetic nervous system’s fight-or-flight response, which revs up heartbeats and reflects a lower stress tolerance.

Otto Loewi won a Nobel Prize in 1936 for his discovery that stimulating the vagus nerve releases an inhibitory substance that slows heartbeats and calms the nervous system.

In the 1970s, my neurosurgeon father taught me about Loewi’s vagus nerve research in the context of maintaining grace under pressure. My dad knew that “vagusstoff” was released during the exhalation phase of the breathing cycle. So, he used breathing exercises to stay calm during brain surgery and on the tennis court. (See “How ‘Vagusstoff’ (Vagus Nerve Substance) Calms Us Down.“)

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When I was a young tennis player, Dad coached me to take a quick inhalation through my nose followed by a long, slow exhalation through pursed lips to calm my nerves before every serve. A recent study found that one five-minute session of deep, slow-breathing exercise (four seconds in, six seconds out) increases vagal tone and reduces anxiety. Personally, I prefer an inhale-exhale ratio of four-second inhalations followed by eight-second exhalations.

On the basis of evidence-based research and lived experience, I know that longer exhalations are an easy way to hack your vagus nerve by triggering the release of vagusstoff. But, I also understand that the calming effect of these breathing exercises tends to be short-lived.

When the sympathetic nervous system is overstimulated by too much exercise, diaphragmatic breathing is just a bandage that gives you temporary relief. Rest is the best remedy for giving your vagus nerve and parasympathetic system a chance to bounce back.

To Sum Up: Excessive Exercise Reduces Vagus Nerve Tone as Indexed by Low HRV

HRV is an indispensable tool for keeping tabs on how your vagus nerve responds to exercise-induced stress and ensuring that you don’t overtrain. Low HRV indicates that the fight-or-flight mechanisms of your sympathetic nervous system are in hyperdrive and that vagal tone is weak. Conversely, higher HRV shows that vagus nerve activity is robust and that your parasympathetic nervous system is handling stress well.

The latest research (2022) on HRV and overtraining reaffirms that low HRV is a warning sign that your vagus nerve may be “frazzled” from too much psychophysiological distress. If you don’t have access to an HRV monitor, experiencing negative moods the day after exercising vigorously may be a sign that you should take it easy for the next 24 hours and give your system time to recuperate.

Topley’s Top 10 – May 13, 2022

1. Each of the prior 14 rate rising cycles something broke

Barry Ritholtz Blog

2. Nasdaq -16% One Month

10 Year Treasury Yields Fall Last 5 Days ….3.10 to 2.84

3. Global Growth Stocks Underperformance Hits 2008 Levels.

4. Valuations Getting Close to 25 Year Median Levels Based on Forward P/E

From Zerohedge

5. Recent Favorite….Uranium ETF Corrects -34%

6. Softbank -66% from Highs….50day thru 200day to downside long-term weekly chart

7. China Dominates Some Key Minerals

The Daily Shot Blog

8. Inflation Tops Americans List of Biggest Problems.

9. Inventory Crunch Making Things Impossible for Homebuyers.

Marketwatch–By Katie Marriner  Jacob Passy

The U.S. is experiencing an unprecedented housing inventory crunch, but no city in the nation has seen the available homes for sale drop more than El Paso. In March of this year, there were just 1,154 homes listed for sale in El Paso County, down 78% from March 2017—the steepest decline of any highly populated U.S. county over that period, according to a MarketWatch analysis. In El Paso, the median home had been on the market for just 38 days as of March, down from about 3.5 months five years earlier. Investor purchases in March more than doubled from five years earlier, while all-cash deals were up 130%, according to data from Attom Data Solutions.

10. Deepak Chopra: A Life of Fullfillment  By Mike Zimmerman | August 17, 2021 | 


On his 14th birthday, Deepak Chopra’s father made a small, yet purposeful gesture: He gave his son some novels by Sinclair Lewis and W. Somerset Maugham as a birthday gift.

Chopra’s father was a doctor in their native India, and he wanted his son to become a doctor, too. Chopra dreamed of becoming a writer. He ignored biology and chemistry in school. “The people I most admired were journalists and other writers who were friends of the family,” he told SUCCESS. “I had no interest in being a physician. But my father knew two things: that I had a fertile imagination and that those books were all about doctors and healers. At 14, you’re very pliable, so after reading them, I went to my father and said I wanted to be a physician.”

Imagine the knowing smile on dad’s face. Chopra went on to America to become a respected endocrinologist, a medical school professor and eventually, one of the foremost proponents of mind-body medicine, or the combination of Western medical knowledge with ancient Eastern philosophies. He is also the author of more than 50 books, including Reinventing the Body, Resurrecting the Soul. And today, when you consider that our culture’s standard definition of success is money, fame and influence, Deepak Chopra indeed has collected them all.

But that last sentence cheapens his accomplishments. He didn’t just become successful. He fulfilled his own definition of success. That’s a far richer accomplishment. The fact that he fulfilled the fame/fortune/ power success trifecta along the way (what he calls the “restricted” definition of success) is almost a byproduct. “I define success as the following,” Chopra says. “No. 1, the progressive realization of worthy goals. No. 2, the ability to love and have compassion. No. 3, to be in touch with the creative source inside you. And No. 4, to ultimately move from success to significance.”

That last part is crucial. It’s what creates people like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett—people whose material success becomes great enough that they can concentrate on more humanistic and satisfying endeavors, or “significance,” as Chopra says. Through that work, they become greater than their success, and ultimately, when they’re alone, out of the spotlight, that’s what drives them. “Material success by itself without significance to the common good ultimately is not fulfilling,” says Chopra, and he speaks from experience.

In short, folks like Gates, Buffett and Deepak Chopra are not the type who think about making enough money to “retire by 40,” or some other target age. They don’t think about retiring at any age. They’re at war with dissatisfaction, which keeps them fine-tuning their A-game and their long-term goals. Money is simply the byproduct of that process.

Now, Chopra warns, that’s not to say that material success isn’t exciting. “Oh, in the beginning it’s very exciting,” he says with a chuckle. “Though, over many years of soul-searching and observing people, I have discovered to my own amazement, actually, that being extremely wealthy is meaningless.”

He cites a close friend of his, a multimillionaire, as proof. “This man’s level of happiness or misery depends every evening on an e-mail that informs him what his net worth is, based on what the stock market did that day. What kind of life is that? He’s a classic example of millions of dollars not making a person happy.”

“Material success by itself without significance to the common good ultimately is not fulfilling.”

So the secret is to forget all about money? Not at all. “Financial security is very important,” says Chopra, for the freedom it allows. However, the secret to real success goes deeper. Don’t pursue happiness, he says. Especially don’t pursue excitement, like the kind provided by making and spending big numbers. Pursue excellence. Pursue fulfillment. And Chopra has done that by fulfilling not society’s definition of success, but his own. It’s real. It’s meaningful. And the best part: It’s all his.

“True wealth comes from creativity,” he says. “Somehow, in modern society, wealth and money have become equated. Money is not wealth. Wealth in its true sense is success,” as Chopra defines it for himself.

How does creativity impact success? Creativity is all about its root word: Create something of value that wasn’t there before. Creativity is also freedom of thought directed toward your goals. Very few people embrace this, Chopra says. Oh, they talk a terrific game about life goals and potential business models and cool new ideas to increase income streams. But true creativity requires an open mind and curiosity, two phenomena that have become rare these days.

Why? Today, people don’t have open minds. Many of us are closed off to even the slightest deviation in mindset, even though most people would probably consider themselves “creative” and “curious.” They’re liars, says Chopra, and two factors—the financial crisis and Sept. 11—prove it.

“Curiosity and open-mindedness mean being aware of what’s going on in your world,” he says. “What has happened in the past couple decades with economic disasters is the result of not having full awareness of what’s really happening around us. We were forced to do that after 9/11. Now we know more about the rest of the world, and we also see the context in which violence arises, in which power arises, in which ecological disasters occur.”

You might ask, What does that have to do with fulfilling my potential? Well, being locked up in your own mindset means being locked out of the world around you. “Creativity, imagination, insight, intuition, conscious choice-making, love, compassion, understanding— these are the qualities of a core consciousness that we come with into the world as children,” Chopra says. “But then we get programmed into the hypnosis of social conditioning, which says instant gratification is the way to be happy. That’s sold to us every single day.”

Chopra suggests several ways to break open more creativity and curiosity:

Adopt a growth mindset.

Chopra says research over the past five years has shown that when adversity strikes, happier people tend to see creative opportunities, while unhappier people see, well, adversity. “It’s programmed through childhood through a phenomenon called mirror neurons,” he says. “If you saw people complaining all the time when you were a kid, that’s what you do. Your neurons mirror the behavior.” To change your mindset, step back and ask yourself, How can I turn this into an opportunity?

Engage the “unfriendlies.”

This is not the same as “sleeping with the enemy.” It simply means make an effort to connect with those you have the least in common with, or even flat-out disagree with, and dissect their point of view until you understand its inherent value (it’s there, alright). This, Chopra says, is the hallmark of the creative, curious, open mind. “There has been a lot of literature on emotional intelligence, social intelligence, and how they’re all linked. We have a person who is now president who, on some level, knew all this. He bonded with America in a way that was amazing, despite the fact that his middle name is Hussein, and he transcends in many ways the definition of identity: Is he black? Is he white? And yet, he beat all the odds and became president.”


Such a simple concept, but a hallmark of learning that’s, again, ignored by many (even with pride by some). But reading is what allowed Chopra to fulfill two life dreams. The boy who wanted to be a writer instead became a doctor… who has written more than 50 books. Indeed, you can fulfill multiple destinies. Chopra could not have done that without reading and more reading. “Books have always influenced my life. I get a strange sense of joy boarding a plane knowing I’m carrying 100 books [on my Kindle].”

This article was published in November 2009 and has been updated. Photo by Getty.

Mike Zimmerman

Topley’s Top 10 – May 12, 2022

1. Not Sure if These 2 Were the Top Last Week at Crypto Gathering

Royal Flush: Inside Crypto’s Most Exclusive Gathering (

Coinbase Joins the Wipeout Disruptor Stock List -86% from Highs

2. Disruptor Stocks Blow Up List

@Charlie Bilello

3. Over 40% of S&P 500 Stocks Below Pre-COVID Highs

The world changed dramatically with the onslaught of the COVID pandemic in early 2020. Businesses were forced to digitize, consumers saved at historic rates, the Federal Government and Federal Reserve flooded the economy with cash, new hobbies were picked up faster than a dropped hundred dollar bill, and consumers emerged from the lockdowns financially stronger than ever. Long story short, COVID appeared to permanently alter the ways in which consumers and businesses interact, and companies that stood to benefit from the new way of life saw their stocks surge while the old-economy stalwarts were crushed. That was then.

This is now. As the economy has emerged from COVID, the cost of inputs has skyrocketed, real buying power has diminished, supply chains have become strained, and geopolitical tensions are hot.  Not only that, but whereas the rate of fiscal and monetary stimulus was stronger than ever during the pandemic, the headwind from their removal is as intense as it gets.

Given the shifts, a number of stocks that originally surged in the COVID world have been hit hard in the post-Covid environment, and some of the biggest COVID losers during the lockdowns have turned into market leaders.  As things currently stand, 40.6% of S&P 500 members are below their pre-COVID highs (closing high price from the start of 2019 through the end of February 2020), even as the index is up 18.0% from its pre-COVID closing high on 2/19/20. Besides the fact that four out of every ten S&P 500 stocks are below their pre-COVID highs, 8.1% of the index members are within 5% of their pre-COVID high and another 7.1% are within 10% of their pre-COVID highs.

At the sector level, three sectors – Communication Services, Real Estate, and Utilities- have more than half of their components trading below their pre-COVID highs.  In addition to those three sectors, in both the Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors, more than 40% of components are below their pre-COVID highs, and another 10% of each sector’s components are within 10% of those former highs. At the other end of the spectrum, the original ‘losers’ from COVID like Energy and Materials have fewer than a quarter of their components trading below their pre-COVID highs. While it seems some days like COVID will never go away, the rallies that a large number of stocks experienced are now nothing more than memories.   Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

4. History of Heavy Over 93% Down Volume.

@jasongoepfert  About the only positive here is that selling has been so bad it might be exhaustive. Over the past 60 years, there have been 12 times (besides today) when 2 out of 3 sessions saw 93% or more of volume focused on falling stocks. 11 of them witnessed a rebound.

5. Median Small Cap Drawdown on Par with Tech Bubble.

@jonrice80 Fully realize there are many ways to measure sentiment, but we are getting into rare territory for median small cap drawdowns. Median US small cap now down 41% from 52 week high. Now on par with tech bubble, creeping on COVID, still a ways from 08/09

6. Biotech -40% YTD

7. A Good Reminder from Ben Carlson Blog

Some Things I’m Not Going to Regret in 20 Years by Ben Carlson

8. Weed is not Recession/Inflation Proof? MJ Weed ETF Breaks Thru Covid Lows.

9. Facts on Nurses…

USA Facts Blog

10. Mark Cuban Says These are the Dumbest Things Entrepreneurs Do

Whatever you do, don’t do the first thing on this list. Or the second. Definitely not the third.

By Jason Fell July 23, 2019

By nature, entrepreneurs are intelligent, passionate, ambitious people. But all of those smarts and drive don’t always mean every business owner makes all the right decisions all of the time. Hopefully the blunders that are made aren’t big enough that the business fails.

We reached out to tech billionaire Mark Cuban to find out the things that entrepreneurs do that absolutely drive him bonkers. As a longtime investor on ABC’s hit TV show Shark Tank, Cuban has encountered his fair share of entrepreneurs who’ve made some serious missteps.

Whether you’re looking for investment money or quietly growing your business, Cuban says to avoid making the following mistakes at all costs.

For businesses in Ohio, there’s a team working behind the scenes to help you find success.

Not understanding business basics.

One thing that drives Cuban crazy is when entrepreneurs lack the basics. A prime example, he says, is when entrepreneurs “don’t know the difference between a product and a feature.” Before an entrepreneur begins looking for investment money, starts producing a product, even before research and development, they need to have this fundamental understanding.

In other words, if a competitor sells only blue shirts, and your shirts are blue and red, you’ve merely created a feature. Products or services solve problems and people want to purchase them. Features are characteristics that add value to products.

Related: Mark Cuban Shares the Best Advice He Ever Got

Successful companies are founded on products—not features, Cuban says.

Thinking competition equals validation.

Creating something from nothing is no easy feat. Convincing people that you’re providing a valuable service and to buy your products sometimes requires a lot more. Cuban says it’s a big mistake to think that a big competitor moving into your market validates your business.

What it does—or should do—is make smart entrepreneurs extremely uneasy. “It means you are in deep trouble unless you can out-innovate and outsell them,” Cuban says.

Pegging your success on one ‘star’ employee.

As the old saying goes: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. The same goes for hiring and team building.

Too often, business owners believe that “their next hire will solve their biggest problem,” Cuban says. Hiring the best marketer in the industry doesn’t mean you’ll magically figure out how to sell your stuff and everyone will live happily ever after, he says.

If your star employee leaves or fails, then so does everyone else. Growing a successful business requires all hands on deck, meaning everyone on the team needs to be pulling their weight—together.

Topley’s Top 10 – May 11, 2022

1. 82% of Bonds in AGG Bond Index Trade Below Par

2. Global Bonds 9 Straight Months of Losses

Vanguard International Bond ETF

3. Value Worst Year Ever Vs. Growth 2020….Now?

Irrelevant Investor-The outperformance of growth over value has been historic. For 14 out of 15 quarters from 2017 through 2020, value underperformed growth  That mentality reached a fever pitch in 2020 when growth stocks gained  37% while value stocks gained nothing. That was the worst year ever for value relative to growth, including 1999.

4. Gasoline & Diesel Prices Spike to New WTF Records

by Wolf Richter  –Predictions a few weeks ago of peak gasoline prices have been obviated by the inflationary mindset.  The average price of all grades of gasoline at the pump spiked to a record $4.33 per gallon on Monday, May 9, the third week in a row of increases, and was up 46% from a year ago, edging past the prior record of Monday, March 14 ($4.32), according to the US Energy Department’s EIA late Monday, based on its surveys of gas stations conducted during the day.

Gasoline price increases slap consumers directly in the face every time they get gas, and the classic ways of hiding price increases – such as making gallons smaller (shrinkflation) – would be illegal.

5. Small Cap -28% from highs…Closing right at 200day moving average on long-term chart

6. Bitcoin Washout Is Leaving Mom-and-Pop Buyers Holding the Bag…Short-Term Holders Average Price $47,500 and They are Selling.


Vildana Hajric

(Bloomberg) — There’s a crypto refrain when prices crash precipitously like this: The selloff is washing out the short term-focused non-believers, known as weak hands, strengthening the industry in its wake.

It’s a glib way to think of all those who had joined the market as Bitcoin’s price rose to an all-time high at the end of last year — including institutions and small-time at-home investors, many of whom are deeply underwater on their investments now.

A measure called MVRV — which divides market value by the average purchase price — shows that short-term holders, on average, purchased Bitcoin at around $47,500. Another gauge, called the spent-output-profit ratio (SOPR), indicates those kind of investors are selling at a loss right now, according to an analysis by Genesis Global that uses Glassnode data.

And it’s not just those who have held the coin for a few months. More than half of traders who held crypto at the end of 2021 had gotten in that year, crypto-firm Grayscale Investments said at the time. Bitcoin’s average price in 2021 hovered around $47,300. It was near $32,000 on Monday in New York trading.

“Absolutely a ton of people are down,” said Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of FRNT Financial Inc. “Anyone who bought BTC for the first time in 2021 is down.”

Crypto fans have long argued that digital assets would hold up well during turbulent times. Many had said Bitcoin would prove to be a good inflation hedge thanks to its limited supply. It was also supposed to hold up better amid economic and geopolitical crises because it’s not tied to any government and has no centralized authority.

Instead, digital-asset investors are suffering through an environment that’s put a lot of risky assets through the wringer this year. The Federal Reserve and other central banks are raising interest rates to combat inflation just as the economic backdrop is softening. In this environment, Bitcoin, the largest digital asset by market value, has been cut in half since its November record. It’s seen five straight weeks of declines and just one positive day out of the last 11 sessions, including Monday’s.

To be sure, short-term investors aren’t all necessarily retail — a lot of institutional players also started to dabble in crypto in recent years. Still, the crypto craze had caught the eye of a lot of at-home traders who had been stuck at home during the pandemic and who deployed money into a market that went up in 2020 and 2021.

7. Chewy Another Covid Favorite Goes Full Roundtrip Back to 2020 Lows

8. Another Look at Personal Savings in U.S……Consumers Better Prepared for Downturn.

Capital Group

9. Firearm homicides hit highest level since 1994-Axios

Axios on facebook

Axios on twitter

Axios on linkedin

Axios on email

The firearm homicide rate in the U.S. reached its highest level since 1994 during the first year of the COVID pandemic, with significant racial and class disparities, according to a CDC report published Tuesday.

Driving the news: 2020 saw a historic rise in homicides in the U.S., and the upward trend continued into 2021.

  • About 79% of homicides and 53% of suicides in the U.S. involved firearms in 2020, according to the CDC report.

The big picture: The nation’s firearm homicide rate increased 34.6% from 2019 to 2020, with the largest increases occurring among Black men aged 10-44 years old and Native American or Alaska Native men aged 25-44 years old, per the new report.

  • “The firearm homicide rate among Black males aged 10–24 years was 20.6 times as high as the rate among white males of the same age in 2019, and this ratio increased to 21.6 in 2020,” the report says.
  • Larger increases were also observed at higher poverty levels, with racial and ethnic minorities more likely to live in communities with high surrounding poverty.
  • Counties with the highest poverty levels in 2020 experienced firearm homicide and suicide rates that were 4.5 and 1.3 times as high, respectively, as counties with the lowest poverty levels.
  • While overall firearm suicide rates remained “relatively unchanged” from 2019 to 2020, increasing only slightly, the highest increases were observed among Native Americans or Alaska Natives “at the two highest poverty levels,” the report noted.

What they’re saying: The CDC noted that firearm homicides and suicides are a “persistent and significant” public health concern in the U.S.

  • During the pandemic, “longstanding systemic inequities and structural racism have resulted in limited economic, housing, and educational opportunities associated with inequities in risk for violence and other health conditions among various racial and ethnic groups,” the report stated.

The bottom line: The study’s findings “underscore the importance of comprehensive strategies that can stop violence” by addressing underlying factors that contribute to homicide and suicide rates, including economic and social inequalities that drive racial disparities in health outcomes, per the report.

  • These could include policies that improve economic and household stability — such as child care subsidies and housing assistance — and community outreach programs.

10. 5 Lessons On Being Wrong

James Clear Being wrong isn’t as bad as we make it out to be. I have made many mistakes and I have discovered five major lessons from my experiences.

1. Choices that seem poor in hindsight are an indication of growth, not self-worth or intelligence. When you look back on your choices from a year ago, you should always hope to find a few decisions that seem stupid now because that means you are growing. If you only live in the safety zone where you know you can’t mess up, then you’ll never unleash your true potential. If you know enough about something to make the optimal decision on the first try, then you’re not challenging yourself.

2. Given that your first choice is likely to be wrong, the best thing you can do is get started. The faster you learn from being wrong, the sooner you can discover what is right. For complex situations like relationships or entrepreneurship, you literally have to start before you feel ready because it’s not possible for anyone to be truly ready. The best way to learn is to start practicing.

3. Break down topics that are too big to master into smaller tasks that can be mastered. I can’t look at any business and tell you what to do. Entrepreneurship is too big of a topic. But, I can look at any website and tell you how to optimize it for building an email list because that topic is small enough for me to develop some level of expertise. If you want to get better at making accurate first choices, then play in a smaller arena. As Niels Bohr, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, famously said, “An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.”

4. The time to trust your gut is when you have the knowledge or experience to back it up. You can trust yourself to make sharp decisions in areas where you already have proven expertise. For everything else, the only way to discover what works is to adopt a philosophy of experimentation.

5. The fact that failure will happen is not an excuse for expecting to fail. There is no reason to be depressed or give up simply because you will make a few wrong choices. Even more crucial, you must try your best every time because it is the effort and the practice that drives the learning process. They are essential, even if you fail. Realize that no single choice is destined to fail, but that occasional failure is the cost you have to pay if you want to be right. Expect to win and play like it from the outset.

Your first choice is rarely the optimal choice. Make it now, stop judging yourself, and start growing.

Topley’s Top 10 – May 10, 2022

1. S&P Intraday 1% Moves Hitting Record Levels.

The S&P 500 Index SPX has had a rocky start to 2022, with weakness accentuated by a 3.56% decline Thursday that leaves the core market representative at about a 13% year-to-date drawdown. This weakness has come with a substantial increase in the daily volatility, as we examine through our SPX Volatility Study. This study looks at the number of days where the S&P 500 sees an intraday move exceeding 1% in value. There have been 45 days so far this year where such a move has occurred, with 32 such days coming in the first quarter and another 13 occurring in April and May. The number of 1% down days has exceeded the count of 1% up days at 26 to 19. The last time we saw the full calendar year count of extreme daily losses be higher than extreme daily gains was in 2008. While we are only a little over four months into the year, the core index has seen an extreme daily move in 52% of the trading days (through 5/5), which is the second-highest annual percentage of extreme days since 1987. The only year to show more extreme days was 2008 at 53%, with a high percentage of 50% seen in 2002. There is still plenty of time for this reading to come down, but the current pace shows the historic levels of daily volatility the core market has experienced over the past few months.

2. S&P Falls for 5 Consecutive Weeks for the First Time Since 2011

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank- A big theme of ours over the last year is that this is likely to be a very different cycle, (and probably decade) to the last one as many supercycle structural forces reverse. If correct, then many themes will be different going forward to what we’ve been accustomed to. One such theme is the relentless march of US equities. The last decade was noticeable for record long periods without a correction, a don’t fight the Fed mentality and a buy the dip narrative.

Today’s CoTD shows that the S&P 500 has now fallen for five successive weeks for the first time since June 2011. Indeed as the graph shows, this now ends the longest run without such an event since weekly data begins in 1928. In the 83 years between 1928 and 2011 we had 61 runs of five or more weekly declines in a row, so one every year and a third on average even if a number were concentrated together.

So the last decade has very much been the exception rather than the norm.

3. That was Fast…..Software Stock Valuations Correct to Historical Average.

Chart 1 – Overall Software EV/NTM Revenue Multiples, 2015-2022

Software multiples are down 12% this wk. and trade at 7.2x NTM rev. vs. the historical avg. at 8x. Despite the recent downdraft, we believe there is still downside to multiples as fundamentals could weaken into a recessionary environment and past downdrafts have pushed avg. multiples to ~5x. We highlight 5 key risks: 1) Higher Multiple Names; 2) Exposure to Interest Rates; 3) Exposure to Europe; 4) Products with High ASP; and 5) Deferred Software.

Dan Stratemeier-Managing -DirectorEquities, Event Driven Strategies-Jefferies LLC

4. Real Interest Rates vs. Tech….Perfect Inverse Relationship

Dave Lutz Jones Trading–“Real Rates” keep ripping higher and squashing Tech.  Any tech bid without a reversal in USGGT10Y is likely to be met with sellers.

5. QQQ -25%+ High to Low…..Gives Back All of 2021 Gains.

6. VIX-Volatility Index has not Broken Out to Upside Yet.

2020 Spike Hit 75

7. Visual of LNG Export Growth

8. The Oil Market Never Changes…Prices Go Up….Start Drilling…..Permits Hit Record Levels.

The Daily Shot Blog Energy: The number of newly approved drilling permits has increased to record high levels, which typically leads production by six-to-twelve months.

Source: Longview Economics

9. 2021 Breakdown by Age of Homebuyers.

Will The Housing Market Crash? Experts Give 5-Year Predictions.–Natalie Campisi

10. This Is the Sign of a Great Thinker, According to Jeff Bezos and Adam Grant

Great thinkers don’t just harbor doubt. They embrace uncertainty–and how little they really know.


The smartest person I’ve known didn’t, on the surface, appear to be that smart.

She used qualifiers like “I think.” “Seems.” “Suggests.” “Indicates.”

When asked for her opinion she could appear unsure, frequently asking for feedback and shifting the conversation to what other people thought.

To make perception matters worse, she was quick to change her positions. New facts? New decisions. New situations? New strategies. New agendas? New tactics. She changed her mind — a lot.

In time, I realized those behaviors masked a staggering intellect. She wasn’t just “book smart” — although she definitely was — but smart smart. Insightful. Perceptive. Clever. Smart about things. Smart about people.

In time, I realized those behaviors were the sign of a staggering intellect.

The rarely mentioned flip side of the Dunning-Kruger effect, a type of cognitive bias described by social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in which people believe they’re smarter and more skilled than they actually are, is that people with high ability tend to underestimate how good they are.

High-ability individuals tend to underrate their relative competence, and at the same time assume that tasks that are easy for them are just as easy for other people. The smarter you are, the less you think you know — because you realize just how much there is to actually know.

That didn’t mean she suffered from imposter syndrome, the inner belief that she was inadequate and mediocre despite evidence that showed she was highly skilled and extremely successful.

As Adam Grant writes in Think Again:

Great thinkers don’t harbor doubts because they’re impostors. They maintain doubts because they know we’re all partially blind and they’re committed to improving their sight. They don’t boast about how much they know; the marvel at how little they understand. They’re aware that each answer raises new questions, and the quest for knowledge is never finished. The mark of lifelong learners is recognizing that they can learn something from everyone they meet.

That didn’t mean she was indecisive or unsure, even though she often changed her mind. 

According to Jeff Bezos:

The smartest people are constantly revising their understanding, reconsidering a problem they thought they’d already solved. They’re open to new points of view, new information, new ideas, contradictions, and challenges to their own way of thinking.

To Bezos, consistency of thought isn’t a positive trait. Bezos encourages those around him to seek new data, new analyses, new perspectives — to have what Stanford professor Bob Sutton calls “strong opinions, which are weakly held.”


Because wisdom isn’t found in certainty. Wisdom is knowing that while you might know a lot, there’s also a lot you don’t know.

Wisdom is trying to find out what is right rather than trying to be right.

Wisdom is realizing when you’re wrong, and backing down graciously.

Great thinkers aren’t afraid to be wrong. Great thinkers aren’t afraid to admit they don’t have all the answers. Great thinkers aren’t afraid to say “I think” instead of “I know.”

As Grant writes, “Arrogance leaves us blind to our weaknesses. Humility is a reflective lens: it helps us see them clearly. Confident humility is a corrective lens: it enables us to overcome those weaknesses.”

Humility enables us to embrace the fact that we already know what we know.

What we don’t know is what other people know.

At least not yet