Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 16 2024

1. Last Week’s One-Day Small Cap Move was 6 Standard Deviation Event

2. One of the Issues for Small Cap is Shrinking Pool of Names….More Mutual Funds than Stocks

WSJ By Spencer Jakab

3. Alphabet Acquisition of WIZ is 2X any Prior Deals

4. Annualized S&P Gains Based on CPI Inflation Numbers


5. Weekly Crypto Asset Flows

From DC Lite Substack  Crypto asset flows. Bitcoin saw the 5th largest weekly inflows ever (+$1.35bn). YTD inflows to crypto assets total a record $17.8bn.


6. Sales of Homes in Manhattan All Cash

NYT By Ronda Kaysen and Ella Koeze

7. Mortgage Applications Update

The United States: Mortgage applications remained at multi-year lows last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

8. U.S. States with Shrinking Populations

From ZeroHedge blog

9. Young People Are Flocking to the Republican Party

By Darragh Roche
Young people appear to be flocking to the Republican Party, according to the figures in a new poll from the Pew Research Center that surveyed Americans’ party affiliation.
The National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) published by Pew Research on Tuesday has drawn significant attention from analysts because it shows the GOP leading among those under 30.
There are just four months until the presidential election where former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, is hoping to defeat President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures to the crowd before delivering the keynote address at the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s Road to Majority Policy Conference at the Washington Hilton on June 22, 2024 in Washington,… More SAMUEL CORUM/GETTY IMAGES
The NPORS found that, among all respondents, 47 percent said they were Republican or leaned Republican, while 46 percent said they were Democrats or leaned toward the Democrats.
The poll was conducted from February 1 to June 10 among 5,626 U.S.
Analyts were quick to point to the detailed figures regarding party affiliation among young people.
“By subgroup, the headline is age,” The New York Times’ chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
“NPORS found the GOP ahead on leaned party ID among 18 to 29 year olds, even though the sample was Biden+20 on 2020 recall vote. The sample size is fairly large (n=496) and it hasn’t shown anything like this in previous cycles,” Cohn added.
In an earlier post, Cohn said: “NPORS found leaned party identification at R+1. That’s the first time NPORS gives the GOP a party ID edge. Last year, it was D+2.
That’s significant in its own right, given the quality of the survey. But it will effect other polls — like that Ipsos poll that recently showed Trump/Biden tied.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Republican National Committee (RNC) for comment.
Matt Blackwell, a political scientist at Harvard who researches statistical methodology and U.S. politics, also drew attention to the figures for young people who are registered voters.
“Uhhhhh…. one odd tidbit from the Pew NPORS: respondents under 26 that are registered to vote are almost R +30,” Blackwell wrote on X. He shared a screenshot of the polling showing that the GOP led with 63.8 percent to Democrats’ 34.3 percent among registered voters under 26.
Blackwell added in a subsequent post: “Sorry, was dropping non-responses to the gender question with those back in it’s only R +26.”
He shared a screenshot of figures showing Republicans on 62.2 percent support compared to 36 percent for the Democrats.
Sharing the unweighted numbers from the poll, Blackwell said: “Maybe just sampling noise? MoE [margin of error] for each one is ±8 or so.”
“To match @Nate_Cohn’s age bracket of 18-29, here’s the breakdown for them. R +7 among the registered voters,” Blackwell wrote in another X post.
G. Elliott Morris, editorial director of data analytics at ABC News and FiveThirtyEight, wrote on X the results could be caused by “sample noise” but added that there are other explanations.
Morris said that one of the possibilities was that “we’re seeing a historic realignment among young voters, to the point where they are as GOP as the silent gen and white evangelical Christians.”
Morris added another possibility: “Selection into taking a poll is correlated with some unmeasured very political variable that’s throwing off most to all polls right now, even literally the best in the industry, and will cause havoc on Election Day (on the level of 2020, 2016, 1980, 1960, 1952, 1948).”

Young People Are Flocking to the Republican Party – Newsweek

10. 2,500 Years Ago, the Ancient Greeks Believed Every Great Speech Must Contain 3 Elements. It’s Still True Today

The ancient Greeks’ approach to public speaking has withstood the test of time and is still the secret of persuasion today.
If you’re looking for advice on how to become a great public speaker, there are plenty of people you can go to. Speaking coachesVCsHollywood directorsjazz musicians, and MIT professors have all offered worthy tips and suggestions.
But perhaps the most compelling advice of all comes from the most unlikely source — ancient Greek philosophers. Before you groan and click away, hear me out.
Much has changed in the 2,500 or so years since Aristotle and Plato were walking around an agora discussing their ideas. Our lifestyles, tech, and understanding of the world are wildly different. But human beings themselves haven’t changed much.
Evolution is slow. Our brains are basically wired the same way then as now. And what worked in ancient Athens — before speakers had the advantage of fancy slides and eye-catching graphics — will almost certainly work now. Plus, these ideas have withstood millennia. They must be pretty worthwhile.
You could, of course, take whole college courses on what the Greeks had to say about what they called rhetoric and what most modern entrepreneurs would call delivering a great speech or presentation. But for time-pressed professionals, let’s start with the fundamentals. Ancient Greek thinkers taught that every convincing speech should contain three essential elements.
1. Ethos
Ethos is the ancient Greek word for character. Aristotle taught that speakers must establish their ethos — their character, credibility, or authority to speak on a subject — for their words to persuade anyone. Without this essential first ingredient, even the most clever and well-worded arguments will fall flat.
“Your audience needs to know (or to believe, which in rhetoric adds up to the same thing) that you are trustworthy, that you have a locus standi to talk on the subject, and that you speak in good faith. You need your audience to believe that you are, in the well-known words, ‘A pretty straight kind of guy,’ ” journalist Sam Leith explained in his book on great rhetoric through the ages, Words Like Loaded Pistols.
How do you establish this good standing with the audience? “No one likes a bragger or a name-dropper. But underselling yourself can be just as damaging to your chances of making an impact with your presentation,” warns Big Think’s Kris Flegg. “Often, the right balance can be struck with case studies and examples.”
You might mention people or companies you’ve worked with to use social proof to establish your credentials. Academics might mention their university or affiliations. Hard numbers help too. “It’s much easier to tell an audience that you’ve been coaching for 15 years than it is to tell them that you’re the best coach around,” Flegg points out.
The idea isn’t to toot your horn to enjoy the sweet sound of self-praise. It’s to foster your audience’s basic trust that you have the knowledge and character to talk about whatever it is you’re going to talk about.
2. Logos
OK, now your audience trusts you. What are you going to tell them? Logos is the content of your speech — the actual ideas you’re trying to get across and the way you link them together. And when it came to how to do this, Aristotle agreed with contemporary writing teachers: “Show, don’t tell.”
“Aristotle had a tip here: He found that the most effective use of logos is to encourage your audience to reach the conclusion to your argument on their own, just moments before your big reveal. They will relish in the fact that they were clever enough to figure it out, and the reveal will be that much more satisfying,” explains the Farnam Street blog.
By using evidence, anecdotes, and solid logic to lead your audience to the conclusions you want them to draw, you enlist them in your speech. That’s both more entertaining and more persuasive than just flat out telling them what they should think.
3. Pathos
So far, so logical. But as you may have observed, humans are not 100 percent logical creatures. Far from it. So according to Aristotle and other ancient Greek thinkers, a truly great speech must not just have a credible speaker making logically sound arguments. It must also have pathos, or emotion.
Offering statistics about your topic is one thing. Sharing a moving story about how your product or idea impacted an individual is an appeal to pathos. So is invoking the audience’s feelings of empathy, anger, frustration, or even patriotism or duty. You might even display a little well-timed emotion yourself.
The idea is to make your audience feel, not just think. But you don’t want to overdo it.
“In order to work, pathos needs to be used sparingly, where it has the strongest impact, and in a way that feels natural. If forced, pathos can have the opposite effect, making people distance themselves to avoid the awkwardness of your emotional outpouring,” warns neuroscientist and Ness Labs founder Anne-Laure Le Cunff in her own deep-dive post on the ancient Greek approach to persuasion.
Put these three elements together, and you had a recipe for true persuasion 2,500 years ago — and you have the recipe for it now.

2,500 Years Ago, the Ancient Greeks Believed Every Great Speech Must Contain 3 Elements. It’s Still True Today |

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 15 2024

1. First Decrease in Inflation in 4 Years

2. Inflation by Sub-Sectors

First 2 chart today from Spilled Coffee Blog

3. Equal Weight Outperformance Thursday was Third-Best Ever

Still on long way to go vs cap weight.


4. French Luxury Companies 30-Year Earnings Growth as Strong as Tech

5. From Market Ear-NVDA Stat

Market Ear “Since Start of 2023, 97% of NVDA returns have been driven by greater earnings vs 3% from valuation expansion.  However, year to date, NVDA NTM/PE Ratio has increased from 25x to 42X, accounting for 56% of the 165% YTD return.”

6. Tech Companies Went from 5% of S&P Capex Spending to 25%

Capital Group

AI fever: Has it gotten too hot? | Capital Group

7. New World Order Semiconductors vs. Transports

Historically, Bulls did not happen without transports stocks.  Below is semiconductors vs. transports:

8. China 60% of World Steel Market

9. World Billionaires

WSJ By Tripti Lahiri

10. Are These Bad Habits Ruining Your Brain?

3 simple ways to build a better brain at any age. Melissa Burkley Ph.D.


  • Sleep, exercise, and a healthy diet all contribute to brain health—as do these underappreciated tips.
  • Avoid sensory overload and focus on one task at a time for peak performance.
  • Prioritize spending time with people face-to-face. 
  • Hearing loss is associated with dementia. Protect your hearing by wearing earplugs around loud noise.

We live in an era where people are increasingly concerned about protecting their brain health. Unfortunately, we also live in an era where our technology and daily habits are rewiring our brains in unhealthy ways. Experts agree that the modern lifestyle poses a serious risk to our gray matter, chipping away at our neurons and making our brains slower, less creative, and less productive.
If we want to preserve our brains, now and for years to come, we are going to have to tweak our lifestyle. You probably already know that poor sleep, poor diet, and poor exercise put your brain at risk, so I’m not going to repeat those here. Instead, let’s examine some often overlooked habits that threaten your brain health and identify some simple fixes.

1. Avoid Sensory Overload
Think about the sheer number of information bites your brain has to juggle in a typical day. Now compare that number to what your parents had to deal with when they were your age.
We are living in a golden age of sensory overload. Emails, texts, Twitter feeds, Instagram, 24-hour news, 24-hour streaming, 24-hour everything! This constant stream of information means our brains rarely get a chance to process something before five other things are on its heels.
“No problem,” you might say, “I’m great at multitasking.” But you are wrong. Research has shown time and again that despite what people claim, multitasking always leads to poorer performance. Even worse, it dulls the brain. According to a study conducted at Gresham College, just having an email sitting unread in your inbox while you try to concentrate on a task can damage your problem-solving performance by an equivalent of 10 IQ points.
As MIT neuroscience Earl Miller explains, the human brain is “not wired to multitask well… When people think they’re multitasking, they’re actually just switching from one task to another very rapidly. And every time they do, there’s a cognitive cost in doing so.”
We think we are expert jugglers, keeping all of the balls churning in the air. But really, we are more like a novice who can only keep one ball going at a time. When our attention is focused on one ball, all the others come crashing down.
Once you accept that efficient multitasking is a myth, you can better identify ways to protect your precious brain energy. Be mindful of how you consume media throughout the day. Instead of checking your emails at all times of the day, consider relegating this task to a few time slots (for example, once in the morning and once in the afternoon). And look for creative ways to guard your brain against unnecessary information, especially during times when you want peak brain performance. For example, consider using apps that limit your most tempting distractions during designated hours.

2. Too Much FaceTime, Not Enough Face Time
Face-to-face interactions were already on the decline when the pandemic hit, and lockdown only made this trend worse. Before the pandemic, the average American adult spent 17 hours a day glued to a screen, be it a TV (4.5 hours), computer (5 hours), or gaming system (3 hours). That adds up to 6,259 hours a year, which constitutes an average of 44 years of your life staring at a screen!
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Digital tools are quickly replacing physical interaction, and while this makes remote work easier, it isn’t benefiting our brains. Human brains are hard-wired for social, face-to-face interactions. Social interactions encourage neuronal growth and give our brains opportunities to forge new connections. One University of Michigan study found that just 10 minutes of daily face-to-face conversation led to marked improvements in cognitive performance and memory. Social interaction also decreases loneliness and depression, both of which threaten brain health.
Look for ways to unplug from your electronics and include doses of social interaction throughout the day. Have a regularly scheduled sit-down dinner with your family and ban all phones from the table. Take regular walks with loved ones, which allows you to get two brain boosts in one: social connection and exercise. While the pandemic continues, join a social group online and once lockdown is over, make this activity face-to-face.

3. Protect Your Hearing
People often overlook how the brain’s next-door neighbors, the ears, play a vital role in cognitive health. But if you think about it, hearing is one of the most important ways your brain receives information from the external world. Anything that makes that information more difficult to process means your brain has to work extra hard to complete its task. No wonder then that hearing loss in older adults is associated with having less gray matter and a greater likelihood of dementia.
Sadly, hearing problems are on the rise. One in four American adults now shows signs of noise-induced hearing loss, making it the third most common chronic health condition (just after diabetes and cancer). We talk a lot about protecting our health by wearing sunscreen, using condoms, eating healthy, and exercising, but rarely do we discuss protecting our hearing.
The government isn’t doing much to regulate noise pollution these days and hopefully, that will change, but in the meantime, here are a few things you can do:

  • Wearing ear protection while mowing your lawn or using other high-decibel machinery
  • Wear earplugs at concerts
  • Wear noise-canceling headphones on airplanes
  • Keep the volume on all your electronic equipment to a minimum (Tip: If you can hold your headphones an arm’s length and still hear the music, your volume is too high)
  • Embrace the joy of silence and schedule noise-free breaks throughout the day

For more quick tips on how to boost your brain health, check out my earlier article. Looking for an even deeper dive into this topic? Check out Dr. Sanjay Gupta’s excellent bookKeep Sharp: Build a Better Brain at Any Age.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 11 2024

1. Venture Funding of AI Start-Ups Doubles

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

2. America’s startup boom is still going strong. Here’s what it means for the economy

NPR Greg Rosalsky

What’s driving the boom
Haltiwanger says that, basically, two big buckets of new businesses are being created these days.

New businesses in the first bucket are capitalizing on a huge post-pandemic population shift. Many office workers are now either fully remote or hybrid. “People are not spending five days a week at the office in major downtown areas,” Haltiwanger says. Where people spend their time, they spend their money. Bad news for businesses in downtown areas. Good news for businesses where office workers live.

Sponsor Message
That’s why one of the big areas for new business growth is in food and accommodations, particularly in the outskirts of cities. Haltiwanger, together with Ryan Decker, calls this “the donut effect.” There’s now a hole lacking vibrant economic activity in many major business districts, and a delicious fried dough of new business opportunities in the suburbs surrounding them. Office workers need their doughnuts, coffee and sandwiches near their office, which is now more often at home.

However, if the story of the new business boom were limited to just delis, gyms and doughnut shops in suburban areas, the upside would be somewhat limited. Sure, remote and hybrid work is a revolutionary change for a large fraction of the workforce, but the business boom it has fed could be seen as mostly just a geographic reshuffling of economic activity. Fewer coffee shops in Manhattan. More in New Jersey or Brooklyn. That would likely have only a limited upside for the economy.

That’s why Haltiwanger is much more excited about the other big bucket of new businesses he has identified in the data: tech startups. This boom is proving, he says, to be the most persistent. These tech startups come in many stripes, but one subcategory has really caught his and other economists’ attention: startups working in artificial intelligence.

“I think we’re in a new tech wave,” Haltiwanger says. “I think AI is the poster child of this.”  Found at Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog

3. Roaring Kitty and CHWY

CHWY rally did not get back to 2023 levels…All-time high was $120 in 2021

4. Tesla’s Share of U.S. Electric Car Market Falls Below 50%

NYT By Jack Ewing
Tesla accounted for 49.7 percent of electric vehicles sales from April through June, down from 59.3 percent a year earlier as the company led by Elon Musk lost ground to General Motors, Ford Motor, Hyundai and Kia, the research firm, Cox Automotive said. It was the first time the company’s market share fell below 50 percent in a quarter, according to Cox. The firm, a leading auto industry researcher, estimates market share based on registrations, company reports and other data.,second%20quarter%20of%20the%20year.

5. Not Yet But Small Cap Tech PSCT Good Chart to Watch

6. More Mag 7 Market Cap Stats

Blackrock Insights

7. AI Power Demand May Grow by 10X

The Surging Problem of AI Energy Consumption-By Kelly Barner
On April 9th, Rene Haas, CEO at British semiconductor and software design company Arm Holdings, made a statement about data center energy consumption ahead of a partnership announcement with U.S. and Japan-based universities. 
As Haas said, “by the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that’s probably 4% or less.”

25 percent of all power consumed in the United States might go to data processing in less than 6 years. No wonder all of the interest in AI and advanced computing has been driving up the stock prices of companies that own power plants: Vistra is up by 84 percent and Constellation Energy by 63 percent.

Many of the sources I consulted in preparation for this episode reference a report from The International Energy Agency. Titled simply Electricity 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2026, this 170 page report is full of data points, analysis, and projections.

For instance, the report states that a request to ChatGPT (one of the most popular examples of generative AI widely available today) requires an average 2.9 watt-hours of electricity. That is equivalent to turning on a 60-watt light bulb for about three minutes. That is nearly 10 times as much energy as the average Google search. 

If that doesn’t have your mind spinning, AI power demand is expected to grow by at least 10X between 2023 and 2026.
Companies that are heavily invested in the AI and data processing space are well aware of this problem. Microsoft and Google have well defined plans to achieve net negative emissions (forget net zero). Apple aspires to be net neutral globally, including their supply chains, by 2030. 

How they are all going to hit those targets without changing something about AI energy consumption is a mystery to me.

AI’s Insatiable Need for Energy
AI runs on GPUs (short for (graphics processing units), a type of chip used to process large amounts of data. Processing requirements and energy consumption increase when the AI is responding to a query. The more complex the model or the larger the dataset, the more energy must be consumed to complete the job.

In addition, queries involving imagery are more energy intensive than those focused on text. Generating one image using AI can use the same amount of energy as charging a smartphone according to researchers at Hugging Face, a collaborative AI platform. 

Energy isn’t just consumed when we use AI; it is also consumed when the AI is being trained. 
Alex de Vries, a data scientist and a Ph.D. candidate at Vrije University Amsterdam talks about a training phase v an inference phase. Training is the process of setting up the model and teaching it how to learn on its own, while inference is when you feed it scenarios to test it and refine how it works.

ChatGPT it took relatively little energy to train, but a lot to do inference, which makes sense, because it had to learn to do a lot of complex things in a very human-friendly way. 

ChatGPT-3 was the one cited as consuming about 10 times as much energy per query as a Google search. GPT-4 probably uses more power because it has more parameters and is a larger model.

8. Rents Falling in Florida-Redfin

9. F-16 Transfers to the Ukraine

Axios Jacob Knutson

10. 80% of Adults Want Parental Consent Around Social Medial-Prof G Blog

Peer Pressure-Prof G-Scott Galloway

Age-gating social media is hugely popular. Over 80% of adults believe parental consent should be required for social media, and almost 70% want platforms to limit the time minors spend on them.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 10 2024

1. Concentrated Stock Rally Update…Highest Since 1972

Ned Davis

2. Cap Weight vs. Equal Weight Hits 2000 Level

Bespoke Investment Group

3. The Last 30 Days Has Narrowed the Market Even More

Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor Blog

4. We Shall See….Mag 7 Earnings Projected to Slow.

Business Insider Jennifer Sor

5. How Hard is De-Globalization and Onshoring?  AAPL Phone Uses Parts from 43 Countries.

AAPL straight up since AI announcements

6. Core PCE is Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure….Trending to 2%

7. KRE Regional Bank ETF Stuck Below 200-Week Moving Average Since February 2023

8. Will Regional Bank Commercial Real Estate  Move into Private Equity Hands?

Bloomberg Neil Callanan-
John Brady, global head of real estate at Oaktree, is similarly blunt about what’s ahead: “We could be on the precipice of one of the most significant real estate distressed investment cycles of the last 40 years,” he wrote in a recent note on the US. “Few asset classes are as unloved as commercial real estate and thus we believe there are few better places to find exceptional bargains.”

9. Used Car and Truck Prices Giving Back Covid Spike.

Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET
Used Car & Truck Prices Spiral Down Further in Historic Plunge, Surrender 60% of Stunning 2-year Spike
But used EV prices still +61% from Jan. 2020, used ICE vehicles +31%. When will they bottom out? Compact cars approach affordability again.

10. Warren Buffett Solves Deficit in One Sentence

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 09 2024

1.The U.S. Now Produces More Energy Than It Consumes

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management 
For the first time in more than sixty years, US energy production is now higher than US energy consumption, see chart below.


2. Nasdaq Advance/Decline Line Image on Concentration of Stock Returns

A/D vs. NASDAQ index, showing a major gap & indicating just a few stocks are driving the entire index (Source: Zero Hedge

3. But Earnings Season Projected Positive…Forward Earnings for S&P Rising


4. Software ETF Break-Out to New Highs.

Software IGV Chart

5. Jobs Numbers Should Push Fed to Lower Rates


6. Short-Term Bonds Price Rising

Are short-term bonds pricing in rate cuts…50week thru 200week on long-term chart?

7. Intel Received Biggest Direct Investment from Chips Act


Chips Act has been no help to chart…Held support levels and bounced 10% in 5 days.

8. Wind Passes Coal for U.S. Electricity 

9. These Are the Best U.S. National Parks—and They’re Not Even That Crowded

WSJ By Emily Pennington and Tom Corrigan

10. Ranking the Best TV Shows of All-Time