Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 16, 2025

1. Quarterly S&P Earnings Being Market Up

SPX earnings. “Positive S&P 500 earnings revisions are very uncommon unless the US economy is coming out of a recession, so the Street’s recent bullishness on future index earnings is nothing short of remarkable.”

@


2. Nasdaq Win Streak Tied for Longest in 4 Years

This is now the longest winning streak for the Nasdaq 100 in nearly two years (November 2023) and tied for the longest since November 2021, or nearly four years! The longest daily winning streak in the index’s history was 19 back in May 1990, just two months before a July peak that led to a 33% decline in the subsequent weeks. We also found it notable that while extended winning streaks were relatively uncommon before 2009, they have become far more frequent in the last 15 years. For example, in the 23+ years from 1985 through 2008, there were just nine winning streaks of nine or more days, but in the last 16 years, there have been 13.

Bespoke


3. Institutional Investors 3rd Weekly Purchase of Tech Stocks in 5 Years

@KobeissiLetter


4. GOOGLE is Best Performing Mag 7 Stock 2025 …At Lowest Point this Year -24% on Fear of Losing Search to AI

StockCharts


5. Bitcoin Did Not Make New Highs with QQQ

StockCharts


6. Small Cap One Tick from New Highs

StockCharts


7. Commodities Equal Weight New Highs

Crescat Capital


8. Money Markets Hit $7.5 Trillion Before Fed Cut Coming

Total MMFs (those held by households and institutions) rose by $83 billion in Q2 from Q1, and by $933 billion year-over-year, to $7.48 trillion. Since Q1 2022, balances have ballooned by $2.39 trillion.

WolfStreet


9. Bessent says US won’t hit China with tariffs over Russian oil unless Europe goes first

By David Lawder

  • Europe needs to ‘do their share’ to cut off Russian oil revenues, Bessent says
  • Bessent criticizes European countries for buying Russian oil, Indian refined products
  • US to consider new Russian sanctions, uses for Russian assets, Bessent says

MADRID, Sept 15 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the Trump administration would not impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods to halt China’s purchases of Russian oil unless European countries hit China and India with steep duties of their own.

Bessent told Reuters and Bloomberg in a joint interview that European countries needed to play a stronger role in cutting off Russian oil revenues and bringing its war in Ukraine to an end.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/bessent-says-us-wont-hit-china-with-tariffs-over-russian-oil-unless-europe-goes-2025-09-15


10. 5 Tips to Make Fast Progress on Any Goal

Some strengths are only visible when you’re in action mode.-Psychology Today

We all have goals that languish on our mental should-do list. Goals we’re either taking no action or painfully slow action on.

Common examples:

  • Home projects or de-cluttering
  • Health-related goals, like incorporating more strength-training
  • Systems-related goals, like becoming more organized at home or work
  • Learning a new tool or technology, like AI

Here are 5 tips to make quick progress on any should-do. As a bonus, they’ll help you discover how taking action itself changes what seems possible and reveals strengths you already possess but only see when you’re in action-mode, not thinking-mode.

Jumpstarts That Work

Choose the one or two strategies that best suit your goal and your flavor of stuckness.

1. Try an Idea You’ve Been Thinking About

Most of us have more good ideas we don’t try than bad ideas we do try. Even finding out an idea didn’t work moves you forward because it takes that idea off your mind.

Try the best (or just quickest to implement) idea you’ve got now, rather than waiting for a better one.

2. Dedicate a Consistent, Weekly Slot for Several Weeks in a Row

I recently dealt with a health concern that felt very emotionally weighty. It was hard to find a balance between ignoring it completely or letting worry about it take over my life.

How did I handle it? For four Mondays in a row, I did something toward addressing it.

To give a real-world example: In week one, I ordered at-home testing supplies. In week two, I started using them. In week three, I got a blood test and emailed some leading researchers. In week four, I did a urine test (after picking up the cup at the blood draw) and read a 14-page document one of the researchers sent.

By the end, I had an annual plan to follow.

A key to this strategy is that your weekly slot should be for executing an action, not deciding what it will be, so plan accordingly.

When you start working, you’re no longer waiting. You’re influencing your outcomes, even when the problem feels scary.

3. Message Someone the Progress You’ve Made on the Goal, Each Monday, for the Next Four Mondays

I’ve been specific with the instructions for this tip to relieve you of some decision-making. Pick a well-regulated friend, therapist, work supervisor, or anyone you think might be a good person for this role.

Let them know what you’re working on, and quietly message them each week to tell them the progress you’ve made in the previous week. You don’t necessarily need to let the person know this is what you’re doing if you’d organically be having ongoing discussions anyway.

4. Give Up Looking for a Solution You’re Sure Will Work

We often hesitate until we’ve thought of an action we’re sure will work.

When I emailed researchers, I had no idea if any would reply, but one did and was extraordinarily helpful.

Here’s another example. My spouse is currently fixing something that’s broken at our house. She’s not sure if she needs to replace the entire unit that’s causing the problem or one part of it.

In these scenarios, back-of-the-napkin math can help you choose an action. Say the whole unit costs $150, and the part costs $20. She estimates there is a 50% chance that swapping the part will be enough.

That seems like a good trade-off.

Rather than trying to know for sure what needs replacing, she can experiment.

Solutions that work often weren’t guaranteed to work. If your anxiety is only managed by knowing a solution will work before trying it, you’ll miss out on solutions you only discover work after trying them.

5. Progress Through Showing Up, Not Planning

This is a completely different strategy that’s well-suited to some goals.

Let’s say you want to learn to use AI, but the possible routes to doing so feel overwhelming. Rather than focusing on a specific goal, spend around 10 hours exploring the tools and possibilities. See where that takes you.

You could take a similar approach to strength training. Commit to spending, say, ten 1-hour slots in the weight room at a gym. Explore. Try out different equipment rather than attempting to have efficient workouts.

Don’t have a gym membership? Get a one-week trial at one gym chain, then try another. Or get a cheap weekly or monthly pass at a community center gym that doesn’t require contracts.

Leverage putting yourself in a setting where action and progress will occur. Focus on exploration and time spent, not a specific outcome.

Develop Meta-Awareness of How Action Itself Transforms Your Thinking and Emotions

By applying any of these strategies, you’ll see actions reveal options, strengths, and solutions you hadn’t imagined.

Taking physical action toward a goal tends to revolutionize our relationship with that goal vs. when we’re just mentally marinating on it. If thinking is a more comfortable state for you than doing, you can marry the two by better appreciating the processes through which action is clarifying.

When we act, we recognize levers we can pull and variables we can influence that we hadn’t considered. Scary tasks, like my medical example, become less scary when we actually start taking effective action. We might realize a goal is harder or easier than we expected, and can adjust accordingly.

Taking action helps us realize the creativity, flexibility, and strength within us that mostly sit unused when we’re not making active progress. There can be fun in seeing what works that we didn’t expect. Our ideas become better after we’ve acted, not before. The problem-solving skills that strong thinkers possess aren’t fully evident until the results of your experiments require them.

When you understand how fast progress can influence your ideas and your self-perceptions, and you have some specific strategies to jumpstart you, this combination can help you make progress on pesky or scary should-dos that have weighed you down.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/ie/blog/in-practice/202509/5-tips-to-make-fast-progress-on-any-goal

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 15, 2025

1. AI Adoption by Companies with 250 Employees

A trend noted by Apollo’s chief economist, Torsten Sløk, shows that as of the second and third week of August, AI adoption in businesses with more than 250 employees had dropped to 9% from a 15% peak in the first two weeks of June. Only 14% of the companies surveyed in the same period in August expected to use AI in their businesses in the next six months, too, down from 19% in June.

ChartR


2. Goldman Sachs Baskets Performance

Liz Ann Sonders


3. Short-Term S&P 500 Overbought

Bespoke Premium


4. Headlines About Government Shutdown….No Historical Effect on Market

SPX vs. shutdowns. “I have no idea if the Government will shutdown soon. What I can say is if it does, it isn’t a big deal for markets. In fact, up 12 months later more than 85% of the time and up nearly 13% on average a year later says don’t get worked up.”

@RyanDetrick


5. Wall Street Trading Desks are Seeing the Best Numbers in Years

Bloomberg


6. Why the IPO party is happening in New York and Asia, not Europe

Ganesh Rao@IN/RAO-GANESH@_GANESHRAO

KEY POINTS

  • A lack of quality companies suitable for public market scrutiny is one reason behind the dearth of IPOs in Europe.
  • A lengthy IPO process exposes deals to significant market volatility, making IPOs a relatively unattractive option, compared to an M&A, for risk-averse sellers like private equity firms.
  • Some also suggest that capital-intensive industries — such as AI and the energy transition — have no choice but to tap U.S. markets to raise the “tens of billions and hundreds of billions” they need to grow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/ipos-are-booming-in-the-us-and-asia-is-europe-falling-behind.html


7. Chinese BYD Auto -30% from Highs …$45B in Market Cap Lost…See Trendline Going Back to 2012

StockCharts


8. 18-34 Year Olds Gloomier than Rest of Americans ….See Chart 1996-2016 Never Red

The Market Ear


9. US overtakes Israel in spyware investments

The US has overtaken Israel as the largest investor in global commercial spyware, a new report found. The Atlantic Council identified a notable increase in the number of US investors in spyware in 2024 compared with 2023. The US government has tried to curb the technology through trade restrictions, sanctions, and other limits on its use, but the industry has “continued to operate largely without restraint,” Wired wrote. Governments have used spyware to covertly surveil politicians, journalists, and activists, and while US President Donald Trump’s stance on the tech has been less defined, immigration officials recently gained access to Israeli spyware that can hack phones and encrypted apps

Semafor


10. European Demographics

Michael Arouet

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 11, 2025

1. Oracle Forecast Catching NVDA

Chartr


2. Another Look at ORCL Projections

ZeroHedge


3. U.S. Small Caps Lowest ETF Market Share in 20 Years


4. Fear and Greed Index Neutral

CNN Business


5. Buybacks Go Dark September 14th

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading

But Reminder The 2nd half of September is the worst two-week period of the year.  The “Buyback blackout” starts on the 14th.


6. Most Aggressive Share Repurchasers Over Last Decade—Koyfin

Koyfin


7. 401k Flows Every Month…Here are Top Stock Beneficiaries

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

The Irrelevant Investor


8. Chinese Stock Market Breaks Out….But Deflation Kicking In

New data in China intensified fears of deepening deflation in the world’s second-biggest economy. Consumer prices fell more than expected and into negative territory for the first time in months, while factory deflation persisted, adding to the challenges Chinese economic policymakers are facing. The country is grappling with mammoth debt, a real-estate market downturn, high levels of youth unemployment, and a broad economic slowdown. Deflation is particularly dangerous: When consumers expect declining prices, they hold off major purchases, creating a vicious economic cycle. Beijing has sought to fight this trend by urging against price wars and unveiling stimulus measures, but “it remains questionable to what extent this crackdown will be effective,” ABN Amro economists wrote.

Semafor Media


9. 30-Year Mortgage Rate Gets to 6.5% …Lowest in One-Year

Business Insider


10. Most Valuable Global Brands

Voronoi

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 10, 2025

1. Small Cap Hits Record 960 Days Without Reaching All-Time Highs

DC Lite Blog  R2K vs. ATHs. The Russell 2000 has now gone a record 960 days without reaching a new all-time high, surpassing the streak that followed the GFC.

DAILY CHARTBOOK


2. Only 1/3 of Stocks Outperforming Index

Jurrien Timmer


3. IPO Market Picking Up…Average Age of Firms 14 Years

Torsten Slok Apollo There are fewer public companies to invest in, and firms that decide to do an IPO are getting older and older.  In 1999, the median age of IPOs was five years. In 2022, it was eight years, and today, the median age of IPOs has increased to 14 years, see chart below.  The rise in the age of companies going public is not only a result of the Fed raising interest rates in 2022, but also the consequence of more companies wanting to stay private for longer to avoid the burdens of being public.  Combined with the domination of passive investing, failure of active managers and high correlation in public markets, and high concentration in a few stocks, the reality is that there is no alpha left in public markets.

Apollo 


4. Robinhood Going All-In on Tokenization

Crypto Advisor–Robinhood is also making a major push. At its Cannes event Robinhood Presents: To Catch a Token, the firm unveiled products targeting 400 million users across 30 EU and EEA countries, including stock and ETF tokens. These moves reflect a broader push to make investing simpler and more accessible on a global scale. https://thecryptoadvisor.substack.com/

StockCharts 


5. Who Owns Bitcoin?

Crypto Advisor Blog Here’s the breakdown of who owns what:

  • ETFs – 1.472M BTC
  • Public Companies – 1M BTC
  • Governments – 526K BTC
  • Private Companies – 300K BTC
  • The Rest – 400K BTC

https://thecryptoadvisor.substack.com

IBIT Sideways Pattern Here

StockCharts


6. Platinum and Silver Catch Up to Gold

Over the last year, gold has gained 45.9% while platinum and silver have rallied 47.9% and 46.1%, respectively. Their paths haven’t necessarily been identical, but they’ve ended up at the same place.

Bespoke


7. Stock Market Record Share of American Net-Worth

SherwoodNews


8. Open AI Projects $20B in Annualized Revenue

OpenAI Raises $8.3 billion, Projects $20 Billion in Annualized Revenue By Year-End  By Sri Muppidi

OpenAI has secured $8.3 billion of new commitments from investors such as hedge funds Dragoneer, Altimeter Capital and D1 Capital Partners, exceeding its earlier goal of $7.5 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the fundraise, confirming earlier reporting from The Information about the round.

The fundraise comes as ChatGPT continues to anchor OpenAI’s business, which is generating $12 billion in annualized revenue, roughly doubling from the start of the year. OpenAI expects to hit $20 billion in annualized revenue by the end of the year, meaning it would be generating about $1.7 billion in revenue per month, according to the same person, up from practically no revenue three years earlier. The company has over 700 million ChatGPT users across both consumer and business customers.

The new capital is part of an unprecedented $40 billion funding round that values the ChatGPT maker at $260 billion before the investment. OpenAI received $10 billion of that amount in June, and the new commitments means that the $40 billion round will increase by about $1 billion. SoftBank, which is leading the fundraise, has committed to funding $22.5 billion of the round, provided that OpenAI successfully reorganizes its corporate structure this year or early next year.

Dragoneer committed $2.8 billion to OpenAI, and other investors in the round include existing shareholders Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, Fidelity Management, Tiger Global Management and Thrive Capital. New OpenAI investors in the round include TPG, T. Rowe Price and Blackstone.

https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/openai-raises-8-3-billion-projects-20-billion-annualized-revenue-year-end


9. Countries with Highest Wealth Per Person

Visual Capitalist


10. Americans Opinion on Journalists

Pew Research Center

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 September 09, 2025

1. Largest Top 10 U.S. Stocks vs. World-Prof G Markets

Prof G Markets


2. Private Equity/Alts Charts from Michael Batnick

The Irrelevant Investor


3. RobinHood +197% 2025…New Highs

Robinhood Markets Inc


4. Election Setback in Argentina…ETF Pulls Back to April Lows

50day thru 200day to downside.

StockCharts


5. 10-Year Treasury Chart Approaching 4% Levels

Barchart


6. Housing Needs Lower Rates….Three Years of Pending Sales Index Down

Wolf Street-Demand in the housing market sagged further: Pending home sales dropped by 0.4% in July from June, seasonally adjusted. They have now spent nearly three years crawling along, or setting, record lows, according to data going back to 2010 from the National Association of Realtors today (historic data in the chart via YCharts):

Buyers Strike


7. U.S. Most Important Ally vs. Threat

People in Many Countries Consider the U.S. an Important Ally; Others See It as a Top Threat

The Big Picture Blog


8. 90% of Americans Largest Asset is Social Security

Americans’ Most Valuable Asset Isn’t Stocks or a Home. It’s Social Security.

For the vast majority of people, the stream of promised retirement checks is worth more than anything else, our columnist says.  By Jeff Sommer

Jeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.  Social Security is the most valuable thing most Americans have.

I don’t mean this in an abstract sense. In purely financial terms, the Social Security check that you are getting now or have a right to receive when you are older is your most valuable financial asset.

That statement is true for nearly everyone except those in the top 10 percent of the wealth distribution in the United States. And for people right in the middle, Social Security amounts to roughly one-third of their total wealth, on average, according to an eye-opening study by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

For poorer people, Social Security isn’t just the most valuable asset they’ve got. It can be absolutely crucial — the difference in old age between destitution and a bare modicum of survival. And it helps people with disabilities and children as well as older Americans. Social Security lifts more people out of poverty than any government program, according to a separate study by an independent research institute the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Anything this important ought to receive far more attention and respect than it has been getting. Instead, Social Security is a neglected responsibility of the political classes — a precious 90-year-old legacy that has been allowed to fall into disrepair.

Consider this: If Social Security is your most valuable asset — and it is, for nine out of 10 households, according to the budget office — protecting Social Security ranks among the most important things that will help you financially.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/business/social-security-wealth-benefits.html


9. Chronic Absenteeism in Schools Post-Covid World

Google AI Search


10. Write it down, write it down, write it down

September 8 Update: On the importance of “writing it down,” + AI and education, and more.

Jack Raines

Welcome to Young Money! If you’re new here, you can join the tens of thousands of subscribers receiving my essays each week by adding your email below.

A quick PSA: 1) several of you have sent me some very cool leads / intros of different creators / entrepreneurs to chat with, thank you I love you all. 2) I do read all of my email replies and try to respond to as many as I can, so if you have someone you think I should meet, def shoot me a note!

Write it down, write it down, write it down.

As a “non-technical” San Francisco resident (a slur used by software engineers and programmers to describe normies like me who weren’t building React apps pre-ChatGPT) during an AI boom, I think it’s important to ramp up my knowledge base on how all of these AI tools work under the hood. This would, of course, make me better at my job as an investor, but it’s also a hubris thing. It annoys me when I’m interested in a thing, or I use it a lot, and I don’t really know it works.

My method for speed-running this knowledge acquisition has increasingly been to build things using the technology that I’m interested in. Pre-AI coding assistants, this would have been difficult to do without a programming background, but now with Claude Code / Cursor / ChatGPT, you really can “just do things.”

My most recent interest was learning how to fine-tune a model. You hear about “fine-tuning” and “training” models all the time, but what does that actually mean? Like, what are you, the “fine-tuner,” actually doing? So I decided to fine-tune one of OpenAI’s models by training it on all of my travel blogs to create an chat model that can generate “Jack Raines-style travel blogs” on a whim.

The whole process only took a few hours, and after taking it live, I took another hour or two to document the whole process for future record.

I’ve always been a big proponent of “writing is thinking,” and I have always thought process documentation was important, which shouldn’t be a surprise considering that I am a writer. But I think the importance of slowing down and writing out your thoughts and processes has increased 10x now that AI tools are so prevalent.

Why?

Because knowledge acquisition used to be an automatic consequence of doing or researching anything, but thanks to AI, the end result the the knowledge formerly created by reaching the end result have become decoupled. Writing is the forcing function to ensure that you actually retain knowledge from AI-enabled projects.

Pre-ChatGPT, it was pretty difficult to reach your end result or ideal output without learning how the thing you’re trying to build, or the idea you’re trying to research, works along the way. Three years ago, if you wanted to create a simple python tool that allowed you to forward emails to a particular address and receive Spanish translations of those emails a few seconds later (I spun this up a few weeks ago), you would have had to understand the logic of the code itself and be very intentional about the software stack you used to connect all of the pieces for it to work. Your intuition was being refined the entire time you were building the thing.

Now? You can hack the whole thing together in a few hours with coding assistants without having any idea how the backend that you just built “works.” The result? You have a functional tool, but your actual “learnings” from building that tool are minimal. If you spend an hour or two after building the tool to document your process, however, you’ll retain much more knowledge of “how” you built the whole thing, which will allow you to move faster and more purposefully on future projects, and if you take the time to read through the script(s) and analyze what the code is actually doing, your intuition about coding logic will improve. Again, pre-AI, your intuition was strengthened simply by doing the work. But now that you can streamline 90% of the labor, you have to be intentional about the learning.

The same is true for anything “research-y.” Say I’m digging into the marine robotics space as diligence for a couple of investment opportunities. I could almost-certainly offload most of the cognitive load of the “research” to a Gemini deep research report, and read through a thorough, well-written, AI-generated report after. The problem is that your fully-AI-generated report will be logically sound, and while reading it will obviously inform you about your topic of interest, reading without writing won’t reveal to you all of the things you don’t know.

The process of writing about a topic makes the holes in your knowledge base immediately obvious because you’ll be stopped mid-sentence when you’re working through an idea as you encounter an information gap. Those information gaps inform the direction of your research, and you accumulate more and more knowledge as you seek to fill those information gaps. You have to do the writing yourself to retain the lion’s share of the ideas, and more importantly, to strengthen your intuition over time.

Writing is also powerful reinforcement learning: ideas stick with you better when you write them out and read them. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t use AI assistants. Claude Code is fantastic, and my ChatGPT usage is absolutely contributing to global warming. But if you aren’t retaining the knowledge related to your work, AI isn’t giving you leverage. It’s turning you into a commodity.

https://www.youngmoney.co/p/write-it-down-write-it-down-write   From Abnormal Returns Blog  www.abnormalreturns.com