Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 28, 2025

1. S&P +1.5% 3 Days in a Row…History

Consecutive gains. From Tuesday-Thursday, the S&P 500 was up “at least 1.5% for three days in a row. This isn’t stuff you see in bear market rallies or short covering rallies. You see this before times of strong performance. Higher 10 out of 10 times a year later and up 21.6% on average.”

Ryan Detrick


2. Gold Articles All Over the Weekend Financial Press

All told, there is now an estimated $4 trillion worth of gold held by central banks, and $5 trillion by private investors. Calculated against $260 trillion for all financial assets, including stocks, bonds, cash, and alternatives, that works out to a global gold portfolio allocation of 3.5%, a record.

Barron’s


3. Major Indexes and Max Drawdowns

Liz Ann Sonders


4. Foreign Investors are at Max U.S. Equities with Little Currency Hedging

Bloomberg


5. Household Wealth -$6T YTD

MarketWatch


6. Despite Volatility…10-Year Treasury is Back to March Levels

Bespoke


7. Americans Still Spending

WSJ


8. Asian Countries Opinion of China

Semafor


9. The Sinking Birth Rate in U.S.

Eric Finnigan


10. 6 Under-the-Radar Mindsets You Need to Excel

How to problem-solve at a higher level.

Key points:

  • Seek unsolved problems to enhance pattern recognition and problem-solving skills.
  • Innovate by sourcing knowledge from unexpected fields and perspectives.
  • Embrace abstraction to apply concepts to diverse challenges.

Via Psychology Today: The mindsets that separate extraordinary from average aren’t just about productivity or career advancement. They’re the same patterns that help you navigate life’s complexities.

While most self-improvement advice focuses on discipline and routine, these six under-the-radar mindsets develop something more fundamental: your capacity to learn, adapt, and discover what others miss. They’re about seeking novel challenges, embracing unexpected discoveries, and finding connections where others don’t look. Whether you’re wanting to excel at work, at self-management, at home, or at sports, these mindsets can help you be more innovative, resilient, and a better problem-solver.

1. You Need To Be Attracted To Problems You Haven’t Seen (Or Solved) Before

School and corporate life train us to feel most comfortable applying familiar formulas to familiar problems, again and again.

But to excel, you need to seek out problems you haven’t already seen and solved. That’s what grows your problem-solving skills and intuition.

Why it’s important for excellence: Knowledge comes from recognizing patterns — and you won’t encounter enough different patterns without exposing yourself to new kinds of problems.

2. You Need To Be Open To Learning Something More Important Than What You Set Out To Learn

The history of science and innovation is full of examples of unintentional discoveries that turned out to be more important than solving the intended target problem. For instance, French polymath Henri Poincaré expected his approximations would solve the problem he was working on. When they unexpectedly didn’t, it led him to develop chaos theory!

The problems we solve or discoveries we make along the way often end up being the most valuable part of the experience. This applies psychologically too.

Why it’s important for excellence: If you’re not open to this, you’ll miss your biggest discoveries.

3. You Have To Be Interested In Abstraction

Abstraction allows us to carry ideas like tools and apply them to new problems. For example, I was recently introduced to two paradoxes. First, the “Barber Paradox”: If there’s only one barber on an island who shaves everyone who doesn’t shave themselves, the question is: who shaves the barber?

Next, consider the “Baldness Problem”: If a person has no hair, they’re bald. With one hair, still bald. A few hairs? Bald. But when do they stop being bald? How many hairs is too many?

Within a week of learning about these ideas, I encountered situations these paradoxes helped me understand. They had seemed like curious puzzles at the time, but they turned out to be unexpectedly useful.

For example, the Baldness Problem might help you understand tensions arising from different people’s definitions of “clean.” The Barber Paradox can help you spot self-referential patterns of circular logic.

Why it’s important for excellence: Without abstraction, it’s hard to carry knowledge with you. We need this to spot patterns we wouldn’t otherwise recognize. Another example here.

4. You Have To Be Interested In A Variety Of Ways Of Solving A Problem

Imagine a non-curious person learning math. They learn one method for solving a specific type of problem—say quadratic equations—and once they’ve got it, they’re not interested in learning any others. Why would they do that? It seems inefficient, like flogging a dead horse.

Now, contrast that with a curious person who, after learning one method, sees a video showing nine other ways to solve the same problem and is excited to try them all.

Why it’s important for excellence: We need to build mental flexibility and the intuition that problems can generally be solved in many different ways. For example, if storming a castle’s main gate isn’t working, we step back and try to view the problem from a completely different angle. Shifting how we approach familiar problems helps us apply the same flexibility to more complex, unfamiliar ones.

Knowing multiple ways to solve a problem also builds resilience. If your usual method isn’t available, you’ll have other strategies. Again this applies psychologically. For example, if you’re injured and can’t exercise to relieve your stress, you need other methods.

5. You Have To Be Interested In Exploring The Long Tail Of Your Strengths

We often focus on obvious strengths that influence success, like a visionary entrepreneur or a runner with a high VO2 max.

However, at elite levels, everyone possesses these top strengths. What sets people apart is the long tail of their strengths, like fast recovery from hard workouts or high-carb fueling tolerance.

Why it’s important for excellence: Without understanding your full range of strengths, you won’t fully appreciate how to use them. It’s crucial to recognize them, see how they might be applied in unconventional ways, and be willing to experiment—even if it means stepping outside conventional methods.

6. You Have To Be Interested In Finding Knowledge In Unexpected Places

Imagine a running coach who only looks for new methods from other running coaches or running journals. Now, picture a coach who also seeks ideas from cycling. Or someone who explores models of recovery, mental toughness, and innovation from fields completely outside of sports. Then, think of a coach who disagrees with another on almost everything but decides to adopt an interesting method they come up with.

Why it’s important for excellence: We become more innovative when we’re open to learning from a wide variety of sources, not just from the usual places or our buddies.

Your Mindset Determines Your Approach to Challenges

Mindset shifts change your approach in ways that routine and discipline alone cannot. They push you beyond applying familiar formulas to familiar problems. While most people scramble for quick wins, your mindset can help you see deeper connections between knowledge sources that others miss. Excellence isn’t just working harder—it comes from sharpening your reasoning skills and problem-solving intuition.

If you’re interested in improving your reasoning further, try this guide.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 25, 2025

1. JP Morgan Globalization—The Bank Moves $10 Trillion Daily Across 160+ Countries in 120 Currencies

From WSJ: How Long Will Big U.S. Banks Lead-

Stockcharts


2. Japanese Stocks and Bonds Biggest Monthly Inflow on Record

Bloomberg


3. Japan Stock ETF Sideways Pattern…Looking for Breakout

StockCharts


4. Year to Date Fund Flows Robust

Equities: Fund inflows have been robust year-to-date.

The Daily Shot


5. Volatility Crash…VIX $60 to $27

StockCharts


6. Existing Home Sales Back to 2010 Levels

Wolf Street


7. Share of Wealth Owned by Top 10%

The Irrelevant Investor


8. 59% of Venture Dollars Q1 Went to AI

PitchBook


9. Top Donors 2024 Presidential Campaign

Voronoi


10. Latin American Poverty

Voronoi

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 24, 2025

1. The Q1 2025 Letter

My Q1 breakdown of the emerging opportunities, overlooked market inefficiencies, and key strategic shifts most investors didn’t see coming. Read it here.


2. China Large Cap Stocks Nowhere for 17 Years

Google Finance


3. China Pulling Private Investments in U.S.

The Kobeissi Letter


4. Gold Trading at 100x Silver

Bespoke


5. IWM Russell 2000 Small Cap Bullish Triangle

StockCharts


6. S&P Underperforming MSCI All World by Most in 32 Years

Lisa Abramowicz


7. MBA Mortgage Applications Falling

Barchart


8. Argentina Driving Free Trade.Imports Increased by 42%…Exports 10%

Perplexity


9. Generic Drugs 90% of Prescriptions in America

Sherwood


10. Work Ethic vs Discipline

Via Seth Godin: A solid work ethic drives someone to show up, even when they’d rather not. If there’s work on their desk, they’ll take it on.

Discipline, on the other hand, is the ability to say ‘no’ to free up focus and resources for the work that’s worth saying ‘yes’ to.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 23, 2025

1. U.S. Dollar Positive Yesterday…Due for Bounce

‘Sell America’ gathers steam. The dollar plunged to a three-year low, as a US trade war and threats against the Federal Reserve drove “Sell America” trades. President Donald Trump’s renewed push to fire the Fed chair, in particular, has undermined the haven status of US assets, resulting in a combined stock, currency, and bond weakness not seen since 1981, according to Sherwood News. Pension funds worldwide are reassessing whether to keep betting on the US, while Chinese state investors are pulling back from US private equity. Traders have flocked to gold, which hit a fresh record Monday, as well as German bonds. The “exorbitant privilege of the US,” Commerzbank’s chair said, “may not be carved in stone.”

Semafor


2. Gold ETF Flows Hit Record Level

Macro Charts


3. Swiss Franc Safety Currency Rallies to New Highs vs. Dollar Sell Off

StockCharts


4. Japanese Yen Rally

StockCharts


5. Dow Jones 50-day thru 200-day to Downside…Not Sure of History

StockCharts


6. Growth Vs. Value 2025

Robertson Stephens


7. Ethereum Bounce Yesterday…Hit Lowest Valuation in History vs. Bitcoin

Barchart


8. Ex-US Stocks See Record Volatility…ACWX Did Not Make New Highs on International Rally

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright: International equities have held up better than US stocks during the most recent bout of global uncertainty. The iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index ETF (ACWX) fell into correction territory on April 4 with a 10% decline from its most recent high on March 19. The fund ultimately bottomed out 13.8% below that high on April 8. Over the next couple of weeks, ACWX advanced sharply to notch a 10% rally last Thursday, April 17, officially moving the fund out of correction territory.

The 20-day peak-to-trough move for ACWX was the shortest correction the broad international fund has seen since 2009, spanning less time than the previous 18 corrections. The nine-day rally was also the quickest ascent we have seen since 2011, outside of the two-day rally during COVID that saw ACWX climb out of correction territory in record time. Meanwhile, US stocks still sit in correction territory, despite the 9.5% upside movement seen from the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on April 9, the day after the recent low.

Voronoi


9. More Take Private Deals than IPOs

Private equity capitalized on take-private opportunities in the first quarter of 2025 as the market grappled with the new reality of tariffs and prolonged uncertainty around deals.

Take-private deal value increased 24.6% quarter-over-quarter, according to PitchBook’s Q1 2025 US PE Breakdown, with one big deal driving much of the action.

That prominent deal occurred in March, when consumer retail sector-focused investor Sycamore Partners acquired Walgreens in a transaction valued at $23.7 billion, the largest PE-backed take-private transaction over the last two years.

PitchBook


10. The History of University Research Funding

Daniel G. Amen

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 April 22, 2025

1. U.S. Stocks Spend 30% of the Time in Correction Territory

Vanguard


2. Microcap Stocks -20% 2025—Held Above 2023 Lows

StockCharts


3. Rolling 3 Month S&P vs. EFA (Developed International). Rare Territory 16% Spread Positive to EFA in 3 months

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


4. During this 3 Months of International Outperformance….U.S. Dollar -9%

StockCharts


5. 31% of S&P Reports Earnings this Week

Via Zero Hedge


6. Price to Earnings Multiple Compression in Mag 7…Before Yesterday

Charlie Bilello


7. Tesla Earnings Today After the Close….-40% 2025 Prior to Announcement

Google


8. Exports Lead by China

Voronoi


9. China: Lender to World

Voronoi


10. Excess Sugar=Inflammation

Daniel G. Amen