1. On DeepSeek News/AI Sell-Off Day…Retail Investors Bought $562M in NVDA Stock
Tipranks
2. Canadian Currency Weakness Offsetting Any Tariffs? Chart of Canadian Dollar vs. U.S. Dollar Straight Down
StockCharts
3. Trudeau Post After 30-Day Delay Announced
Bloomberg
4. Mexican Peso Weakness Offsetting Tariffs….Peso vs. U.S. Dollar Straight Down
StockCharts
5. 80% of Mexican Exports Go to U.S…Mexican Stock Market Down -30% Before Tariffs
StockCharts
6. U.S. Exports to Mexico Mostly to Texas
The United States and Mexico trade over $800 billion annually in goods (nearly $300 billion just from the top six exporting states, as shown in the graph above). More than one million US jobs are tied to cross-border commerce and over five million US jobs depend on commerce with Mexico, all intertwined in a highly diversified supply chain that keeps everything from cars to avocados flowing.
Atlantic Council
7. Goldman Global Clients Bullish on U.S….Much Higher than Recent History
Bloomberg
Bloomberg
8. Who Owns the Cloud?
The Capitalist
9. SuperBowl Tickets Down -30 to 50%
Via CNN: The Kansas City Chiefs might make history this weekend, but ticket prices aren’t reflecting that.
The cheapest ticket forSuper Bowl LIX in New Orleans has fallen below $4,000 on the secondary market, according to reseller TickPick, marking a 30% decline over the past week — and more than 50% cheaper compared to last year’s record-breaking Super Bowl.
The Chiefs, whoface the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, are hoping to be the first team to win three successive Super Bowl rings. Despite that historic feat on the line, fans apparentlyaren’t excited to splash out big bucks.
There are a few potential reasons related to this year’s host city — and perhaps a slight dose of Chiefs fatigue.
Consistency compounds while occasional brilliance fades. You don’t need more time. You need more focus. Time isn’t the constraint. Your choices are. Great outcomes aren’t built on great days, but on consistent ones. You can’t just count the days when it’s easy. Each day moves you closer to the goal. No day is a hero; no day is a villain. Perfect days don’t compound. Consistent ones do.
You know what’s going great? Gigachad. It’s a memecoin representing, to quote fromgigachad.com, “tokenized masculinity.” A sparse splash page there explains that there is “no intrinsic value or expectation of financial return. There is no formal team or roadmap.” It’s up 91,000% over the past year, with a market value of more than $600 million. I’m leaving out some key fundamentals. There’s also a picture of a guy with a beard on the website, and phrases like, “I don’t care, I win.”
Barron’s
2. A Positive January is Bullish
Of the 32 years where January was up 2% or higher, the S&P 500 finished down in only 4 of those 32 years.
Ryan Detrick
3. Apple Buybacks and Dividends
The world’s largest company by market cap continues to return all its cash flow (and then some) to shareholders.
Over the last 5 years, Apple has returned $550 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, more than any company in the world. Notably, over that same timeframe, Apple has generated $511 billion in free cash flow.
Performance since earnings: +0%.
FinChat.io
4. Update on H100 NVDA Chip Hoarding
Sherwood
5. Money Flows to Bonds 2024
Vanguard
6. Healthcare: 2-Years of Underperformance
Advisor Perspectives
7. Rise of Stablecoins for Cross-Border Cash
Stablecoins have become a crucial part of the global economy. Crypto has great potential for cross-border trade: People in developing markets with unreliable banks, poor financial infrastructure, or high tariffs can use it to buy goods from abroad. But crypto’s unpredictable value makes that difficult. Stablecoins, cryptocurrencies pegged to the value of traditional currencies such as the dollar, allow frictionless transactions without crypto’s usual instability. As a result, major companies, including SpaceX — whose Starlink satellite service is a key source of internet in developing countries — and financial services firm Stripe have begun using stablecoins for some cross-border transactions. The coins are now a $205 billion market, “driven by real-world utility, not speculation,” according to TechCrunch.
Semafor
8. Republican vs. Democrat Congressional Traders
Unusual Whales has created two counterpart ETFs that are meant to track Republican Trading (KRUZ) and Democratic Trading (NANC) based on trading activity disclosures from members of Congress and their spouses. As shown below, the Democratic Trading ETF has outperformed SPY since the ETF’s inception in early 2023 with NANC up 58.9% compared to a 46.6% gain in the S&P 500 (SPY). The Republican Trading ETF (KRUZ) has gained roughly 30%, which means it’s up about half as much as the Democratic ETF. Based on these two ETFs at least, investors have recently been better off following the trading patterns of Democrats rather than Republicans in Congress.
Bespoke Investment Group
9. Tariffs Have Been Eliminated Over the Last Century
Yahoo! Finance
10. Why You Wake Up at 3 a.m., and How to Get Back to Sleep
Psychology Today: Do you often awake at the witching hour? Here’s how to cast off its spell.
KEY POINTS
A key to getting back to sleep is to reframe your response to seeing the time displayed on the clock.
Instead of panicking about what time it is, remember that it’s normal to awaken during the night.
Nervous system regulation strategies (progressive muscle relaxation, mindfulness, deep breathing) can help.
Waking up in the middle of the night isn’t an uncommon experience. About one-third of the general population struggles with it. Many of us have one or two interruptions to slumber that entail a bathroom trip or a reconfiguration of our pillows, sheets, and sleep positions. Some of us, however, wake up wired and can’t for the life of us get back to sleep. It’s the 3 a.m. wide-awakeness that tends to be the bane of many insomniacs’ existence. If this is happening to you on the regular, here are some possible reasons why—plus, some strategies to increase your odds of getting better shut-eye.
1. Age
As we age, we tend to have more frequent awakenings from sleep and stay awake longer during those stretches. This isn’t a cause for panic. It’s just something to be aware of. Relaxation strategies (think: progressive muscle relaxation, light stretching, meditation) and low-stimulation endeavors like reading (an actual book or magazine, not using an e-reader or phone) can help fill that time and prevent the body from being so overly stimulated that it can’t get back to sleep.
2. Blood sugar imbalances
Falling into a hypo or hyperglycemic state during the night has been linkedwith poorer sleep quality. If you have a family history of diabetes or have been diagnosed yourself, consider consulting with your doctor or a specialized dietitian about a helpful pre-bedtime snack to support stabler glucose levels throughout the night. Some evidence suggests that a small serving of peanuts, other nuts, or nut butter before bedtime may help keep blood sugar levels on a more even keel throughout the evening.
3. Alcohol
Alcohol disrupts our sleep, making it more fragmented and robbing us of the REM cycles essential to emotional processing and memory consolidation. Stopping drinking alcohol at least four hours before bedtime can help reduce this negative impact. If insomnia is a regular bugaboo for you, consider forgoing nightcaps as a standard practice.
4. Caffeine
Even if you fall asleep after having an after-dinner coffee, research shows that caffeine can lead to “increased nocturnal awakenings” as well as disrupted REM sleep. Try curbing caffeine intake before the late afternoon (or sooner, if you can) to avoid this.
5. Freaking Out
If your response to seeing the clock (or more likely, your phone) display 3 a.m. (or an equally non-preferred time) is to spiral into a panic, this could explain why you’re not able to fall back asleep. Anxiety and panic cue the release of cortisol, adrenaline, and other excitatory chemicals in the body, shutting down parasympathetic nervous system activity (which we need to have on in order to relax into sleep) and shifting you into fight, flight, or simply freak out mode.
Combat this negative cycle by reframing your interpretation of the so-called witching hour. Instead of seeing being awake as a bad thing, rest assured that it’s natural to awaken at this time, as sleep cycles typically last 90 to 120 minutes and you may simply be emerging from one.
Consider this witching-hour wakefulness an opportunity to practice self-care and relaxation. Each of the below strategies can help downshift your nervous system and lull you back into a dreamy state:
Box breathing. Inhale fully and hold your breath for three to four seconds. Exhale slowly; at the end of that exhalation hold your breath again for three to four seconds. Repeat three to five times.
Bilateral stimulation. Here’s a handy trick from EMDR (eye movement desensitization and reprocessing). Cross your arms over your chest and tap your left and right shoulders or upper arms quickly and firmly for 20 to 30 seconds. Pause, inhale, and let that breath go. Repeat the process several times. Observe any shifts in energy, tension, and relaxation.
Observe your thoughts. Part of why we can’t sleep when we wake up in the middle of the night is because we finally have time to process our thoughts in the absence of the day’s distractions. Getting too preoccupied by them can, however, overstimulate our brains and keep us wide awake. Try watching your thoughts come and go as if they are credits at the end of a movie. You might even imagine them as billboards in a parade. Or leaves on a steam. (This is a handy tip from acceptance and commitment therapy, or ACT.)
Progressive muscle relaxation. Starting with the muscles on your face, tense and hold each muscle group in your body for five (or so) seconds, and then release. From your face, move to your shoulders, your arms, your chest, upper back, abdomen, lower back, groin area, upper and lower legs, ankles, feet, and toes.
The goal is to reduce the hold that negative thought patterns have on your mind and awareness. This helps you amass evidence that you can wind down, even when you awaken, so you can do this more effectively each night it happens.
If you’re really struggling in the staying-asleep department, consider reaching out to a psychotherapist who specializes in insomnia (such as a CBT-i or EMDR therapist or a sleep medicine practitioner). There are many well-researched interventions (some of them mentioned briefly above) that can help you reduce symptoms of insomnia, get better rest, and stop associating the middle of the night with dread and despair.
1. Microsoft: Which Way Will Sideways Pattern Break? Up or Down?
StockCharts
2. Software ETF Below Highs
StockCharts
3. UPS Has Worst Single Day Ever…-40% from Highs
StockCharts
4. GOLD: New High Yesterday
StockCharts
5. Which S&P Sectors Hold the Most Cash?
Visual Capitalist
6. Healthcare: 2-Years of Underperformance
SentimenTrader
7. Factory Construction in the U.S.
Bespoke Premium
8. Military Spending has Almost Doubled Since the 90’s
Statista
9. Share of Religious Nationalism
Pew Research
10. You Want to Do Big Things
Via The Daily Stoic: You want to do big things. You want to achieve. You want to leave your mark on the universe. You want to conquer the world.
This is what Alexander the Great did—literally. And yet where did it get him? Marcus Aurelius took pains to remind himself that the man died and was buried like the rest of us. The band Iron Maiden has a lyric: “Measure your coffin / does it measure up to your lust?” As it happens, there is a much older poem–from Juvenal writing sometime between around 100 AD—who pointed out that in life, while the world was not big enough for Alexander’s ambition, in death, a coffin was sufficient.
No one is saying you should put all your drive aside, that you should not try to do anything. Clearly, Marcus Aurelius tried to be a good person, tried to be a good ruler, tried to be a good philosopher. But that’s the point: He measured his life not by the size of the monument he hoped they would leave to him (and there are some) but instead by the things he controlled.
In the end, it’s not about the empire you build or the fame that outlives you. It’s about the character you lived by, the person you were, and the impact you make on those who matter most. Aim high, but remember: your legacy isn’t measured in the grandness of your ambition—it’s measured in how you live each day.
1. S&P Sector Performance Before Yesterday…Technology Worst Sector
CNBC
2. Equal Weight S&P Still Below Highs
StockCharts
3. India vs. China Chart Swinging Back to China Favor
India (INDA) had big run of outperformance vs. China (FXI). This chart shows FXI vs. INDA.
StockCharts
4. DJT-Trump Media…It Would Not Take Much to Move Lower than Election Day
StockCharts
5. Argentina Budget Surplus
Barchart
6. Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Owns 1.5% of All Listed Stocks Globally
Cut to today, and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is the biggest in the world. It owns 1.5% of all listed stocks globally, making it the world’s largest single investor. Now, following a bumper year for big tech, the fund posted a record-breaking annual profit of ~$222 billionon Wednesday, with the fund’s value topping $1.78 trillion at the time of writing — the equivalent of ~$319,900 for each Norwegian citizen.
Chartr
7. Good Demographics Tailwind….Gen Z and Millennials Earning Above Inflation
John Burns Research
8. U.S. Government Spending as a Share of GDP
Semafor
9. Population Without Electricity
10. Organizing for Urgent
From Seth Godin: There are many ways to prioritize our time and focus, but the easiest and most vivid way is to do the urgent things first.
If we wait until a house plant is sick before we take care of it, though, it’s too late.
Deadlines, loud requests and last-minute interventions are crude forcing functions. They’re inefficient and common.
It’s far more effective to organize for important instead.
We thrive when we do things when we have the most leverage, not when everyone else does. Waiting for trouble means that you’re going to spend your days dealing with trouble.
1. Alibaba releases AI model it claims surpasses DeepSeek-V3
BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese tech company Alibaba (BABA) on Wednesday released a new version of its Qwen 2.5 artificial intelligence model that it claimed surpassed the highly-acclaimed DeepSeek-V3.
The unusual timing of the Qwen 2.5-Max’s release, on the first day of the Lunar New Year when most Chinese people are off work and with their families, points to the pressure Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s meteoric rise in the past three weeks has placed on not just overseas rivals, but also its domestic competition.
StockCharts
2. ASML Good Number Last Night
ASML hit $1110 at high…-40% correction before bounce.
StockCharts
3. Semiconductor ETF …Trading Around 200-Day for 6 Months
StockCharts
4. Diamonds vs. Gold
Isabelnet
5. Average Fed Rate by Decade
Semafor
6. Trade Policy Uncertainty…No Shock Here
The Irrelevant Investor
7. Betting Markets 77% Chance of Canadian Tariffs
Torston Slok Apollo-Betting markets are telling us something about consensus expectations for the coming months. We can then begin to discuss the macroeconomic consequences.
Polymarket
8. Strategic Mineral Supply Chain….Not Many American Flags on Map
Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog
9. Inventory of New Construction Homes for Sale
Wolf Street
10. How Sleep Helps the Brain Build Learning Maps
KEY POINTS
Sleep hygiene fuels neuroplasticity, and quality sleep consolidates new experiences.
Myelination solidifies learning ensuring neural pathways become faster and more efficient.
The formation of habits is influenced by the intentions that guide our behaviors
Via Psychology Today: Our brains have an extraordinary ability to adapt and learn, a process known as neuroplasticity. From navigating a new city to mastering a new skill, neuroplasticity allows us to reshape our neural connections in response to experiences. But this process doesn’t work in isolation, and one key ingredient it requires is good sleep hygiene.
Sleep plays a pivotal role in refining the brain’s ability to form and solidify cognitive maps—mental representations of the spaces and connections around us. Recent research has revealed how the brain connects discrete memories into a cohesive map during rest, showcasing the critical interplay between neuroplasticity and sleep.
Neuroplasticity involves several stages, starting with the formation of new neural connections, followed by the strengthening of those connections. A critical part of this process is myelination, in which the myelin sheath—a protective coating around nerve fibers—thickens to improve the speed and efficiency of neural signals. This process ensures that the new pathways become permanent and robust, enabling long-term learning and adaptability.
The Power of Cognitive Maps
When you explore a new city, your brain initially remembers specific locations, like a cozy café or a bustling market. These isolated memories are stored in specialized neurons called place cells in the hippocampus. Over time, weaker neurons, known as weakly spatial cells, act as bridges, connecting these memories into a mental map.
During sleep, these connections are refined, allowing your brain to link locations and form a cohesive geography. For example, Sarah, a student navigating her university campus, initially found it overwhelming to locate her classes. However, after a week of exploration and restful sleep, she could effortlessly guide a friend from the library to the cafeteria, thanks to the cognitive map her brain constructed.
Sleep: The Catalyst for Memory and Learning
Research highlights how sleep consolidates learning by replaying experiences in the brain. This replay refines neural connections, making them more precise and efficient. Mohammed, an engineer preparing for an exam, experienced this firsthand. After implementing a strict sleep hygiene routine, he found that reviewing his notes before bed helped him recall critical information effortlessly the next day. Sleep provided his brain with the opportunity to strengthen the pathways needed for retention.
Neuroplasticity isn’t just about remembering spaces; it’s also crucial for forming habits. Jasmine, a professional striving to establish a morning exercise routine, struggled to make it stick. However, when she prioritized consistent sleep, her brain began reinforcing the habit through plastic changes during rest. Over time, waking up for her workout became second nature, demonstrating how sleep transforms intentions into automated behaviors.
The Science of Latent Learning
A recent study from MIT’s Picower Institute showed that sleep allows the brain to encode meaningful maps of space. When mice explored mazes without rewards, their brains initially registered individual locations. But after several days of exploration combined with sleep, weakly spatial cells stitched these discrete memories into a cohesive cognitive map. The role of sleep hygiene is further explored by Leah Irish, et al (2014) in a review of empirical evidence.
The role of latent learning—learning that occurs without immediate rewards—relies heavily on sleep-dependent neuroplasticity. Interestingly, mice deprived of sleep failed to form these maps, highlighting the irreplaceable role of rest in learning. Sleep enables the brain to organize and refine information, creating a foundation for navigation, planning, and problem-solving.
The Role of Myelination in Learning
One of the most fascinating aspects of neuroplasticity is myelination, the process of strengthening neural pathways. As we repeatedly use a new connection—remembering a route, mastering a skill, or building a habit—myelination thickens the protective sheath around neurons, ensuring faster and more reliable communication. This crucial process is impaired by insufficient sleep, leaving new learning fragile and incomplete.
Neuroplasticity in Everyday Life
Neuroplasticity and sleep intersect in countless aspects of daily life, from learning and memory to habit formation and emotional regulation. Here’s how you can leverage this connection:
Prioritize Sleep. Aim for 7-9 hours of quality sleep each night to ensure your brain has time to consolidate and refine new learning.
Engage in Exploration. Allow yourself to explore new environments and ideas without immediate goals or rewards. Trust that your brain will make sense of the experiences during rest.
Repeat and Rest. Repetition strengthens neural pathways, but sleep is what solidifies them. Alternate periods of focused practice with restorative sleep for optimal results
Conclusion
Our brains adapt and learn, which allows us to reshape our neural connections in response to experiences. But this process requires sleep hygiene. The brain’s ability to adapt and grow is a testament to its resilience and complexity. Whether it’s finding your way, mastering your studies, or establishing healthy habits, neuroplasticity and sleep work hand in hand to help us navigate life’s challenges.
Rest isn’t a luxury; it’s a necessity. Sleep fuels the brain’s ability to create, refine, and maintain the connections that define us and what we can achieve. Let’s sleep better to shape mental maps, build habits, and drive our potential to new heights.
