Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – July 18, 2022

1. Major Indices Holding Above 200 Week Moving Averages.

S&P above 200 week

Nasdaq Comp above 200 week

www.stockcharts.com


2. Dow Jones and Dow Transports Above 200 Week

Dow Industrials

Dow Transports


3. Small Caps had Worse First Half Ever…Holding Sideways on 200 Week

www.stockcharts.com


4. Japanese Yen Falls to 20 Year Low vs. U.S. Dollar

www.stockcharts.com

 


5. Overall Asian Currencies have Slumped to Historical Lows vs. Dollar

Bloomberg-Unstoppable Dollar Risks Worsening $71 Billion Asia Stock Exodus

Unstoppable Dollar Risks Worsening $71 Billion Asia Stock Exodus-Ishika Mookerjee

(Bloomberg) — The dollar’s relentless rise is threatening to trigger more outflows from Asia’s emerging-market shares, spoiling hopes of the region making a comeback in the second half.

A gauge of Asian currencies has slumped to its lowest in more than two years, an ominous sign for equities given their strong relationship with moves in foreign exchange. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index has fallen 20% as foreign investors took $71 billion out of stock markets in emerging Asia outside China so far this year, already double the outflows in 2021.

The dollar has steamrolled through global currency markets lately, benefiting from bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. A stronger greenback bodes ill for Asian stocks when it signals lower risk appetite and is also seen as negative for growth in emerging economies, many of which rely on imports priced in the currency.

“The dollar is strengthening because there’s risk aversion rather than growth” and that’s “not a good mix” for Asian assets, said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unstoppable-dollar-risks-worsening-71-000000106.html


6. South Korea Chipmakers Inventory Build

QUARTZ Meanwhile, South Korea’s Ministry of Economy and Finance reports that Korean chipmakers are sitting on a rapidly growing stockpile of unsold chips. The country, which is the world’s biggest producer of memory chips for electronics like laptops and smartphones, hasn’t seen its semiconductor inventory rise this fast since 2018.

https://qz.com/2186673/its-the-best-and-worst-of-times-for-semiconductor-supply-chains/

From Barry Ritholtz blog https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/weekend-reads-525/


7. The Tesla of China ….BYD Hit All-Time Highs

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BYDDF:OTCMKTS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwivy7jdg4H5AhW3hYkEHSPKCpMQ3ecFegQIFxAY

2022-BYD +11% vs. TSLA -32%

www.yahoofinance.com

8. Tesla’s Layoffs All Scooped Up Already

Here’s where Tesla’s recently laid-off talent is going
Fred Lambert
@FredericLambert
https://electrek.co/2022/07/11/where-tesla-recently-laid-off-talent-going/

9. 10 Places Where the Housing Market’s Tide Has Turned

Barrons
Shaina Mishkin  andWilliam McCormack
Cooling Down
These metropolitan areas have seen the biggest slowdowns in listing prices compared with their one-year trends.
Metropolitan Area Median Listing Price* Average Monthly Gain Over the Past Year** Gain in June Decline From Monthly Average
Bridgeport, Conn. $982,000 32% 4% 28%
Boise, Idaho 587,900 22 10 12
Austin, Texas 620,000 30 19 11
New Haven, Conn. 362,400 16 7 9
McAllen, Texas 275,000 14 7 7
Baton Rouge, La. 336,995 14 9 5
Las Vegas 499,450 29 25 4
Fresno, Calif. 445,000 15 11 4
Hartford, Conn. 375,000 15 11 4
Denver 680,000 16 13 3
U.S. $450,000 12% 17% +5%

*As of June; **Based on year-over-year gains for each month from July 2021 through June 2022.

Source: Realtor.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-market-listing-prices-outlook-51657816762?mod=past_editions


10. Farnam Street-Inside a Miracle: The 1980 U.S. Hockey Team.

Few people know the details about one of the greatest stories in sports history. A classic David versus Goliath story that happened at the 1980 Olympics in Lake Placid when the U.S. Olympic Hockey team played the Soviets.

While the U.S. team had won the gold at the Squaw Valley Olympics in 1960, they hadn’t done much since then. The only notable showing was 5th place at the 1976 games. The Soviets, on the other hand, came into the 1980 Olympics having won 12 of the previous 15 world championships and 4 Olympic gold medals in a row. The Soviet record since Squaw Valley was 27-1-1.

In fact, the Soviets were so good, that in 1979 there was no NHL all-star game. Instead they just invited the Soviets to play a three-game series called the Challenge Cup. The U.S.S.R crushed the best players in the NHL 6-0 in the deciding game.

The Soviets beating the U.S. hockey team at the 1980 Olympics was as close to a sure thing as you could imagine, or so it seemed. Only things didn’t play out the way either team expected.

In his book, 99: Stories of the Game, the legendary Wayne Gretzky tells the incredible story of what transpired.

“In the United States,” Gretzky writes, “the goal was to build a team that, while not having much chance of winning, would at least not embarrass the country.”

Herb Brooks was hired as coach. If there was one guy in the program who wasn’t playing to avoid embarrassment, it was Brooks.

Eighty of the best college players were invited to Colorado Springs in July of 1979 to compete for a roster spot (remember at the time the Olympic games were for amateurs). Although it wasn’t so much a competition as formality. Brooks had won three NCAA championships coaching Minnesota, so he pretty much knew the 23 man roster he wanted.

A bit of leadership …

Brooks took one of the assistant coaches aside and said “A lot of these guys hate each other, and the only way I can think to make them a team is for all of them to hate me. You’re going to have to keep all the pieces together and be the guy they can lean on, because they’re not going to be able to lean on me. I’m going to be the same to all of them. I’m going to be tough on all of them.”

In a warm up game before the Olympics at Madison Square Garden, team USA lost to the Russians 10-3. The players were in awe of the opponent.

Brooks has spent a lot of time in Russia learning some of their systems. Herb discovered that when the Russians played hockey, they didn’t shoot the puck unless they thought they could score, and so although it might look as if they had fewer than ten shots on goal, they were shots that counted. …

[I]t was all about puck possession. The Russian team didn’t have to work as hard in defense because they had the puck so often. When a lot of people watch hockey, they don’t seem to focus on that. A big part of my game (Gretzky) was the forecheck—chasing a defenseman down, lifting his stick, and taking the puck. If you take the puck off a defenseman or player in his own end, you don’t have as many players to beat in order to score or to make a play.

An unexpected bit of ego and overconfidence …

The first medal-round game featured the Soviets and Americans. The game was played at 5 p.m. but didn’t air on ABC until 8 p.m. “One of the most memorable moments in American sports history would be watched by most Americans three hours after it happened,” Gretzky tells us.

In the locker room just ahead of the game, Herb Brooks gave the most inspirational speech of his life. He told the guys, “You were born to be a player. You were meant to be here. The moment is yours.”

The players skated onto the ice and looked up. The arena was packed. People were waving American flags everywhere. In the first minutes, the Americans surprised the Soviets with how fast and emotionally they played. Still the Soviets scored first. Then the unexpected happened.

Buzz Schneider took a slapshot and beat the legendary Soviet goaltender Vladislav Tretiak, tying the game. The Soviets quickly scored again and it looked like the first period would end that way when Dave Christian picked up the puck in his own zone with only five seconds left. Rather than play till the whistle, a lesson we all learn at one point or another and one that was drilled into me by my high-school football coach, the Soviets had let up thinking the period was over. Christian shot the puck up ice, Mark Johnson chased it down, deked Tretiak, and scored with only one second left. Tie game.

In the second period, Soviet coach Viktor Tikhonov pulled a surprise move. He replaced Tretiak—a guy known as one of the best goalies of all time—with his backup, Vladimir Myshkin. I’ve (Gretzky) had the opportunity to sit down with Tretiak and hear his opinion about it. Tretiak was the biggest star in Russia—and maybe still is, thanks to what he did in ’72 as a twenty-year-old goalie—and I think it used to drive Tikhonov crazy. He wanted to show everyone that his coaching was the reason they were winning the Olympics, not Tretiak’s goaltending. And to this day, Tretiak thinks that’s why he was pulled.

“Don’t change a thing. Don’t change a thing because they’ve changed goalies. Don’t change a thing. Play the same way,” Brooks was heard telling his team.

A lucky bounce …

In the third period, the Soviets looked dominant again. Then, on a rush, a shot from Dave Silk slipped through a Soviet defenceman’s skate right onto Mark Johnson’s stick. Before Myshkin could move, it was in the net and the score was tied (3-3). A minute later, the American captain, Mike Eruzione, scored.

Now the Americans were leading, just ten minutes away from a shot at a gold medal. Brooks kept walking up and down the bench saying, “Play your game. Play your game.” He repeated it a thousand times at least.

Jimmy Craig (the American goaltender) was in the zone. He wasn’t going to get scored on. When a goalie is in that kind of zone, especially in the playoffs, his ability to anticipate the shot is as good as the rest of his skill set. And Craig wasn’t alone—the whole team was flying out there. When you go into a series without the sense of entitlement the Russians had, it gives you the intensity you need to get to that extra level.

The gamed ended 4-3 for the U.S. The Americans swarmed the ice. They could hardly believe it—they had to keep telling themselves, “We beat them. We. Beat. Them.”

It was the first game the Soviets had lost at the Olympics in 12 years.

There are several lessons one can take away from this story—Brooks’ leadership to make the team hate him more than each other; Tikhonov’s ego pulling the legendary Tretiak to show the world how amazing he was; and the importance of playing to the whistle come to mind. Perhaps the most important lesson of all is that when the conditions are right, a group of “average people” can come together and get non-average results.

https://fs.blog/inside-a-miracle/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 14, 2022

1. Yield Curve Full Inversion.

CNBC-Yield curve inversion between 10-year and 2-year rates reaches biggest point since 2000

Samantha Subin@SAMANTHA_SUBINMatt Clinch@MATTCLINCH81

The 2-year Treasury yield popped Wednesday while its 10-year counterpart fell, pushing the so-called inversion between the two to its biggest level since 2000. Yield-curve inversions are seen by many on Wall Street as signals that a recession lies on the horizon.

The 2-year, which is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy, traded more than 9 basis points higher at around 3.138%. The benchmark 10-year rate, meanwhile, slid nearly 4 basis points to 2.919%. Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%.

Those moves came after the U.S. government said after the consumer price index rose 9.1% on a year-over-year basis in June. That’s well above a Dow Jones estimate of 8.8% and marked the fastest pace for inflation since November 1981. It also added to worries of even tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/us-bonds-treasury-yields-tick-higher-as-traders-prepare-for-inflation.html


2. U.S. Steel -57% in 3 Months…Back to Covid Levels

U.S. Steel Stock hit $16.50 intra-day 2020 levels

www.stockcharts.com


3. European Brent Crude Priced in Euros

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


4. Commodities Decline from Peaks

@samRo

(20) Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) / Twitter


5. Odds of 100 Basis Point Raise in July Hit 30%

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html


6. Inflation Breakeven Inflation Rates Falling Quickly

Liz Ann Sonders Schwab-Breakeven rates descending quickly over past 3 months … drop in 1y, 5y, and 10y is steepest since summer 2020

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSounders


7. Public Companies Record Stock Buybacks in Q2

WSJ By Hannah Miao Companies are also using their cash to repurchase their own shares at record levels, with second-quarter buybacks expected to set a fresh high of $286.4 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

CSD-Buyback ETF Clear Down Channel on Chart….broke uptrend line going back to end of 2019

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dividend-payouts-hit-record-despite-rocky-stretch-in-markets-11657618381?mod=itp_wsj&ru=yahoo


8. Chinese Homebuyers Across 22 Cities Refuse to Pay Mortgages

(Bloomberg) — Across China, homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages as property developers drag on construction projects, escalating the country’s real estate crisis and risks of bad debt for banks.

Buyers of 35 projects across 22 cities have decided to stop paying mortgages as of July 12 due to project delays and a drop in real estate prices, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Griffin Chan wrote in a research report distributed on Wednesday.

The payment refusals underscore how the storm engulfing China’s property sector is now affecting the country’s middle class, posing a threat to social stability. Chinese banks already grappling with challenges from liquidity stress among developers now also have to brace for homebuyer defaults.

Now is “a critical time for social stability,” said Chan, adding that “the forgoing of down payments may bring social instability.”

A drop in home values hasn’t helped. Average selling prices of properties in nearby projects in 2022 were on average 15% lower than purchase costs in the past three years, according to Citigroup’s research.

The contagion is spreading to banks. Non-performing loans triggered by the wave of mortgage payment snubs could reach as much as 561 billion yuan ($83 billion), about 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance, according to Chan.

While the overall impact on banks will be “manageable,” state lenders including China Construction Bank Corp., Postal Savings Bank of China Co. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. may have more exposure to mortgages, and could suffer setbacks amid dampened investor sentiment, Chan wrote.

Postal Savings Bank’s shares fell 3.3% as of 2 p.m. in Shanghai, while ICBC declined 2%. The CSI 300 Banks Index fell as much as 2.7%, the most since April 25.

For Chinese banks, the non-performing loan ratio of mortgages was well below the level of other forms of lending, according to the banking regulator. At China Construction Bank, only 0.2% of its residential mortgages were bad as of December, compared with 1.42% for total loans.

The latest development comes at a time when renewed risks of Covid restrictions also pose a threat to the industry. A key real estate index fell for a third day Wednesday, heading for the lowest level since March.

Read: How China’s property bond plunge is spreading

A Bloomberg index of China’s high-yield dollar bonds fell to the lowest in a decade as of Tuesday. Domestic bonds of large property developers, including Gemdale Corp. and Country Garden Holdings Co., also slumped to record lows.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-homebuyers-across-22-cities-062113892.html


9. Home Prices Slowdown but the U.S. is Still Under Built

@robanderson_stl

While the cyclical story could continue to weigh on the Homebuilding sub-industry, long-term fundamentals remain strong. NDR estimates around a 2.5 million unit shortage in housing for 2022 due to persistent underbuilding since the GFC. 2/4

https://twitter.com/robanderson_stl


10. ‘They couldn’t even scream any more. They were just sobbing’: the amateur investors ruined by the crypto crash

The Guardian Sirin Kale

The mania around bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies was fuelled by a social media hype machine unprecedented in the history of financial markets. Investors touted new coins that were amassing huge returns, hung off the tweets of crypto-influencers and spoke in impenetrable jargon. “Demand for bitcoin related purely to the level of interest in this new technology, and that interest was manipulated by the companies that offered different cryptocurrencies and exchanges and startups,” Yarovaya says. “All of this happened on social media, meaning that investors didn’t even know whether there was genuine interest in crypto, or lots of Twitter bots encouraging people to buy. The system wasn’t transparent.”

There are eight stages of crypto-crash grief.

Shock. “I couldn’t eat or sleep for two nights,” says Alla Driksne, a 34-year-old chef from London. “I got sick from the stress.” She has lost her life savings – a six-figure sum – in the Celsius freeze.

Denial. “I always thought the next project would bring me back up again and I’d cash out before it crashed,” says Roy. “In the next cycle, I’m going to try. In the next cycle, I’m going to do it again.” A part of him still believes this is possible.

Anger. Alex Koh, a 41-year-old engineer and personal finance YouTuber from Glasgow, directs his towards Do Kwon, the South Korean entrepreneur who founded terra/luna. Koh says he lost enough to buy a four-bedroom house in London. Kwon has been accused of fraud by five investors based in South Korea; he is being investigated there by a financial crimes unit and in the US by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The rollercoaster has taken crypto holders on a downward spiral. Many people have been caused serious financial pain

Susannah Streeter

Bargaining. Vahid, a 31-year-old from London, has used Twitter to plead for his money with Alex Mashinsky, the founder of Celsius. Vahid’s life savings, more than £50,000 in cryptocurrency, is locked in his Celsius account. Vahid had planned to use the money to start a business or buy a house. For support, he spends his time on conference calls with other Celsius victims; I listen in to one. “I know anything short of getting your native token [initial investment] back is unacceptable,” says one investor, with desperation in his voice. “But would you rather get back 10%, or 20%, or 34%, you know? Now, I’m hoping it’s not a complete loss.”

Depression. “I thought I’d be able to retire early,” says Koh. “But it’s all gone down the drain. I’ve never cried so much in my life.”

Acceptance and hope. “I worked my ass off doing 16-hour days for six years to earn this money,” says Driksne. “This is hard-earned money. That’s what hurts the most. I lost six years of hard work. But I am trying to stay positive. I’ll make it back again.”

Shame. Vahid hasn’t told anyone he has lost his life savings. “I don’t want people turning around to me, saying: you should have taken your money out last year,” he says. I ask him if he is embarrassed. “Of course,” he responds.

Processing. “I hope that I can show that I am willing to learn and accept my mistakes,” says Koh. “If I rebound from this, perhaps I can be an inspiration to people elsewhere around the world – or my kids, at least.”

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash

Topley’s Top 10 – July 11, 2022

1. Inflation Adjusted S&P Returns Worst in Modern Times

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are US inflation-adjusted stock market returns during past episodes of turmoil:

The Daily Shot Blog https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-july-8th-2022/

2. Are Commodities Third Peaking Asset Class?

Callum Thomas-It’s the old textbook market cycle in progress: first bonds peak, then stocks peak, then commodities peak… At it’s simplest, price just reflects the progression of the business cycle (and inflation/monetary policy)

https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas

3. U.S. Dollar Record Strength

ZeroHedge Blog-Earnings Season The simple math on S&P 500 earnings from currency is that for every percentage point increase on a year-on-year basis it’s approximately a 0.5x hit to EPS growth. At today’s 16% year-on-year level, that translates into an 8% headwind for S&P 500 EPS growth, all else equal.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-soaring-dollar-will-crush-earnings-growth-and-snuff-rally-stocks

4. Driving Electric Car in Germany Getting Very Expensive

Electricity Pricing in Germany

Michael A. Arouet
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1546107176116260865/photo/1

5. Three Popular Sentiment Measures Combined…Hit GFC Lows

Investors Sentiment as Contra Indicator….All Hitting Lows
Bespoke Blog -The more bearish turn at the expense of bulls witnessed in this week’s AAII survey was echoed by other readings on sentiment like the Investors Intelligence survey and NAAIM Exposure index. Combining all three of these sentiment readings into one composite, overall outlooks for the market took a further bearish turn this week with the average survey currently 1.8 standard deviations below its historical norm. That is slightly better than earlier this spring, but still, the only period since the mid-2000s with similarly pessimistic readings was in late 2008 and into 2009.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bulls-back-below-20-2

6. Short Duration 1-3 year Bonds -3.5% vs. 20 Year Bond -23%

www.yahoofinance.com

7. Treasury Market Volatility Traded Back to Covid Crisis Levels in 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-11/jpmorgan-s-josh-younger-explains-why-the-bond-market-keeps-getting-shocked?sref=GGda9y2L

8. Amazon Spent $700m Policing Counterfeiting Last Year

This was 2019
Amazon puts out counterfeit warning

9.Americans on Gun Laws

From the Big Picture Blog-by Barry Ritholtz

https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/sunday-reads-281/

10. 3 Ways to Not Feel Overwhelmed Anymore

Psychology Today-Research explains how to withstand the toughest of emotions-Mark Travers Ph.D.
We all feel like we’re being held hostage by our emotions every now and then. While emotions can be overwhelming at times, most psychologists will tell you that they can also be powerful carriers of information about your mind and personality.

However, it can be difficult to understand your emotions from a detached distance if they begin to overpower you. To combat this vulnerability, here are three research-backed ways you can gain more control over problematic or painful emotions and build mental fortitude.

#1. Undo rejection through objectivity

According to psychologist Mark Leary of Duke University, rejection can come in six forms:

  1. Criticism
  2. Betrayal
  3. Active dissociation (for example, a romantic breakup)
  4. Passive dissociation (like not being included)
  5. Being unappreciated
  6. Being teased

Hurt feelings resulting from any of the mentioned events can result in the experience of the “rejection emotion,” which can then turn into sadness, anger, or even anxiety.

“People don’t need to be actually rejected to have the subjective experience of rejection,” says Leary. “For instance, even though we know that our romantic partners accept and love us, they can (unintentionally) make us feel rejected and hurt our feelings in certain situations.”

In order to tackle our rejection emotion, Leary explains that we must first understand why it is so important for us to feel accepted. Simply put, people feel accepted when they think that they have high “relational value,” or worth, to another person or group of people. A great deal of our behavior, thought, and emotion, according to Leary, is driven by our need to belong to groups.

Therefore, Leary advises, if you are experiencing the rejection emotion, make sure that you do not underestimate your relational value because of ambiguous social cues or misinterpreting neutral feedback from others as negative feedback. This is necessary because most people go through life feeling more rejected than they actually are.

“Viewed in this way, the first step to address one’s concerns with rejection is to examine the evidence as objectively as possible, trying not to read too much negativity into them,” warns Leary.

Having said that, if you are going through an obvious and painful rejection, here’s how you can boost your feeling of acceptance:

  • Learn to ignore the negative reactions of people whose opinions of us are unimportant
  • Seek connections with people with whom we have a higher relational value
  • If necessary, make changes in ourselves that would increase the degree to which other people value having connections with us

#2. Watch closely for emotion dysregulation

Emotion dysregulation is best understood as the repeated encroachment of unhelpful emotional patterns. According to researchers, it lies at the core of a range of psychological disorders.

Emotional dysregulation can be elusive, as it can result from multiple causes. According to psychologist Arela Agako, instances of this phenomenon coalesce around five themes:

  1. Brain activation
  2. Physiology
  3. Cognition
  4. Behavior
  5. Individual experience

“We can draw some conclusions from the overlap between all the different theories out there that try to define emotions and emotion dysregulation,” says Agako. “For example, in the case of fear, our amygdala gets activated (brain activation), we notice a lot of changes in our body, such as our heart rate increasing (physiology), we might notice thoughts related to danger (cognition), we might have an urge to run away (behavior), and we also might have different ways of describing this experience (experiential).”

An emotion can be activated when it is not helpful or needed. Or, an emotion can fail to activate when it is needed. It is not uncommon for the intensity of an emotion to be too high or too low than what is helpful in the moment. Moreover, emotions can last longer or shorter than we need them to. These things happen to everyone because our brains and bodies aren’t perfect.

If you are someone who struggles with emotional dysregulation, Agako has the following advice:

  • Make time for the emotion, preferably in a comfortable setting and when you can dedicate a few minutes to it without being interrupted
  • Notice precisely what the emotion feels like in your body
  • Try to name the emotion
  • Reflect on whether the emotion was justified by the situation or whether it came from somewhere else
  • If the emotion is justified, ask yourself what the emotion is telling you you need at that moment. Is it finding social support? Is it figuring out a way to get out of a dangerous situation? Is it apologizing to someone? Or, is it something else?
  • If the emotion isn’t justified, ask yourself if there is another way to think of the situation or what you might say to a friend who is in the same situation

#3. Use the “thinking threshold” to ride your emotional wave

Emotions are like waves: they have a beginning, middle, and end. Something (a situation in life, a thought about the past) triggers an emotion inside us. Like waves, emotions rise up, peak, and eventually come back down.

A study by psychologist Jennifer Villieux identified the “thinking threshold” as a level of emotional intensity above which thinking is impaired—where thinking is driven more by emotion than by logic. When one reaches this point, it is inadvisable to use strategies like cognitive reappraisal that require you to think logically as a means to regulate your emotions. Beyond the thinking threshold, complex cognition is impaired.

Therefore, using behavioral or sensory strategies is a better idea when above the thinking threshold, like splashing your face with ice water, taking a walk, or getting a hug.

Villieux also has the following words of wisdom for anyone who relates to this experience:

  1. Sometimes emotions need to be felt. It’s okay to just ride it out, because the emotion will not last forever. It will come down because that’s what emotions do; waves crest and then recede.
  2. In some cases, cognitive appraisal as a coping strategy may not be the best choice. For instance, cognitive reappraisal may lead to rationalizing of an abuser’s actions in a predatory or abusive relationship.
  3. When you have made it past the emotional peak, make a concerted effort to use cognitive strategies to avoid such surges in the future. So, when you can think clearly, try to engage in some perspective-taking, problem-solving, or reflection on the experience.

Conclusion: Emotions are a big part of our lives, whether we like them or not. With a little bit of perspective, planning, and objectivity, they can transform from being our kryptonite to being our North Star.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/social-instincts/202207/3-ways-not-feel-overwhelmed-anymore

Topley’s Top 10 – July 12, 2022

1. M2 Money Growth Goes Negative

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank-Regular readers will know I’m a staunch believer in inflation being everywhere and (mostly) always a monetary phenomenon. It was no surprise to me then that the rapid increase in M2 balances stemming from the muscular response to the Covid-crisis wound up being persistently inflationary and not transitory, especially when combined with supply constraints. I still believe that inflation will stay structurally elevated in the years ahead for reasons I have detailed many times (deglobalisation, demographics, ESG, etc.); however, there is one warning sign for me at the moment and that’s the rate of change in US M2.

The three-month growth rate in M2 hit only 0.02% at the end of May, that’s the 2nd percentile of M2 growth in data going back to 1959 as you can see in the chart, and on the precipice of turning negative. As you can also see, negative M2 growth rates are extremely rare in the modern era, even during recessions.

Notably, the data is only through May, before the Fed’s QT began in June, which should continue to lead to deposit growth being as weak as it has been recently. When the Fed lets securities mature un-reinvested, the Treasury Department (or MBS issuers) must turn to the public to finance the balances rolling off the Fed’s balance sheet. When the public pays for those balances out of current cash on hand, their deposits are transferred to the Treasury Department (or MBS issuer), effectively removing them from the banking system and monetary aggregates.

Where does that leave me? I still think my core inflation view holds. Not only are we still experiencing an inflationary overhang from the tremendous growth in monetary aggregates (see the peak in the chart), even if monetary aggregate growth stalls, the level of excess savings remains extraordinary, all while labour markets are still historically tight, thus replenishing those bank accounts with pay checks. In fact while the correlation between M2 and inflation isn’t perfect, the correlation works best with around a 30-month lag. Given that M2 YoY growth was 26.9% in February 2021, the overhang might last a while yet.

Nevertheless, the risk that M2 is now on a path lower is one worth keeping an eye on.

2. Earnings Season–Analysts Estimates Still Above Long-Term Trend

Real Investment Advice Blog-Lance Roberts

Over the long term, the economy grows at about 6%. Therefore, earnings growth also runs at roughly ~6% on a peak-to-peak basis. However, analysts suggest that earnings growth into 2023 will run well above the historical growth rate despite forecasts of much slower economic activity.

To put that into perspective, analysts’ estimates are currently at the most significant deviation above that 6% earnings growth trend.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/earnings-recession-coming-as-fed-hikes-rates/

3. Jobs Market Showing No Signs of Recession..2 Job Openings Per Unemployed Person

Sam RO This is in line with BLS data released on Wednesday that showed the layoff rate remained near a record low of 0.9% in May.

So far, we’ve been looking at labor market metrics that reflect the past and the present. But what about the future?
Based on job openings data, it’s pretty clear that the demand for more labor continues to be very strong.
According to BLS data released Wednesday, there was a whopping 11.25 million job openings in May. That compares to the 5.95 million unemployed during the same period.

Sam Ro, CFA https://www.tker.co/p/june-jobs-payrolls-not-recession Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

4. U.S. Retail Gas Prices Down 25 Days in a Row-Y Charts

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price

5. India Surpasses China in Population

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/11/china-india-world-population-trends

6. Refinance Market Kaput

Wolf Street

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/07/11/cash-out-refis-with-holy-moly-mortgage-rates-to-pay-for-remodeling-projects-professional-home-remodelers-face-challenges/

7. Who Imported Russian Fuels Since War? Who Shut it Down?

The Top Importers of Russian Fossil Fuels-Visual Capitalist

The EU bloc accounted for 61% of Russia’s fossil fuel export revenue during the 100-day period.
Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands—members of both the EU and NATO—were among the largest importers, with only China surpassing them.

China overtook Germany as the largest importer, importing nearly 2 million barrels of discounted Russian oil per day in May—up 55% relative to a year ago. Similarly, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as China’s largest oil supplier.
The biggest increase in imports came from India, buying 18% of all Russian oil exports during the 100-day period. A significant amount of the oil that goes to India is re-exported as refined products to the U.S. and Europe, which are trying to become independent of Russian imports.

Reducing Reliance on Russia
In response to the invasion of Ukraine, several countries have taken strict action against Russia through sanctions on exports, including fossil fuels.

The U.S. and Sweden have banned Russian fossil fuel imports entirely, with monthly import volumes down 100% and 99% in May relative to when the invasion began, respectively.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/whos-still-buying-fossil-fuels-from-russia/

8. EV Car Prices +22% Year Over Year …More Models Coming.

  • 2022 is expected to bring an especially dramatic increase in the number of EVs on the U.S. market: from the roughly 62 models available at present to at least 100.
  • Half of U.S. adults (51%) say they are likely to consider purchasing an electric vehicle in the next decade, up from 39% in January and 43% in March-April.

The Coming Electric Vehicle Wave: In 2022, Consumers Get Options BY LISA MARTINE JENKINS https://morningconsult.com/2021/12/22/electric-vehicles-consumers-2022/

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/05/the-worlds-top-selling-electric-vehicles-january-2022/

9. Start-Up Funding Falls the Most It Has Since 2019

The drop was another fallout of rising inflation and widespread economic uncertainty, and a retreat after years of a funding boom.

By Erin Griffith SAN FRANCISCO — For the first time in three years, start-up funding is dropping.

The numbers are stark. Investments in U.S. tech start-ups plunged 23 percent over the last three months, to $62.3 billion, the steepest fall since 2019, according to figures released on Thursday by PitchBook, which tracks young companies. Even worse, in the first six months of the year, start-up sales and initial public offerings — the primary ways these companies return cash to investors — plummeted 88 percent, to $49 billion, from a year ago.

The declines are a rarity in the start-up ecosystem, which enjoyed more than a decade of outsize growth fueled by a booming economy, low interest rates and people using more and more technology, from smartphones to apps to artificial intelligence. That surge produced now-household names such as Airbnb and Instacart. Over the past decade, quarterly funding to high growth start-ups fell just seven times.

But as rising interest rates, inflation and uncertainty stemming from the war in Ukraine have cast a pall over the global economy this year, young tech companies have gotten hit. And that foreshadows a difficult period for the tech industry, which relies on start-ups in Silicon Valley and beyond to provide the next big innovation and growth engine.

“We’ve been in a long bull market,” said Kirsten Green, an investor with Forerunner Ventures, adding that the pullback was partly a reaction to that frenzied period of dealmaking, as well as to macroeconomic uncertainty.

“What we’re doing right now is calming things down and cutting out some of the noise.”

The start-up industry still has plenty of money behind it, and no collapse is imminent. Investors continue to do deals, funding 4,457 transactions in the last three months, up 4 percent from a year ago, according to PitchBook.

Venture capital firms, including Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital, are also still raising large new funds that can be deployed into young companies, collecting $122 billion in commitments so far this year, PitchBook said.

Venture capitalists, such as those at Sequoia Capital and Lightspeed Venture Partners, have cautioned young firms to cut costs, conserve cash and prepare for hard times. In response, many start-ups have laid off workers and instituted hiring freezes. Some companies — including the payments start-up Fast, the home design company Modsy and the travel start-up WanderJaunt — have shut down.

The pain has also reached young companies that went public in the last two years. Shares of onetime start-up darlings like the stocks app Robinhood, the scooter start-up Bird Global and the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase have tumbled between 86 percent and 95 percent below their highs from the last year. Enjoy Technology, a retail start-up that went public in October, filed for bankruptcy last week. Electric Last Mile Solutions, an electric vehicle start-up that went public in June 2021, said last month that it would liquidate its assets.

Kyle Stanford, an analyst with PitchBook, said the difference this year was that the huge checks and soaring valuations of 2021 were not happening. “Those were unsustainable,” he said.

The start-up market has now reached a kind of stalemate — particularly for the largest and most mature companies — which has led to a lack of action in new funding, said Mark Goldberg, an investor at Index Ventures. Many start-up founders don’t want to raise money these days at a price that values their company lower than it was once worth, while investors don’t want to pay the elevated prices of last year, he said. The result is stasis.
“It’s pretty much frozen,” Mr. Goldberg said.

Additionally, so many start-ups collected huge piles of cash during the recent boom times that few have needed to raise money this year, he said. That could change next year, when some of the companies start running low on cash. “The logjam will break at some point,” he said.

David Spreng, an investor at Runway Growth Capital, a venture debt investment firm, said he had seen a disconnect between investors and start-up executives over the state of the market.

“Pretty much every V.C. is sounding alarm bells,” he said. But, he added, “the management teams we’re talking to, they all seem to think: We’ll be fine, no worries.”

The one thing he has seen every company do, he said, is freeze its hiring. “When we start seeing companies miss their revenue goals, then it’s time to get a little worried,” he said.

Still, the huge piles of capital that venture capital firms have accumulated to back new start-ups has given many in the industry confidence that it will avoid a major collapse.

“When the spigot turns back on, V.C. will be set up to get back to putting a lot of capital back to work,” Mr. Stanford said. “If the broader economic climate doesn’t get worse.”

Start-Up Funding Falls the Most It Has Since 2019 – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Found at Morning Brew https://www.morningbrew.com/daily

10. 4 Beliefs That Take Time Away from Your Day

By
Cris Antonio
June 24, 2022 10:00 AM EST | 5 min read
What’s the best gift you can give to someone? It’s definitely not diamonds, expensive shoes, or the latest gadget – it’s your time.
Time is the most valuable thing we own because we can never take it back. However, many of us still struggle with our day-to-day tasks.

We seem to not have enough hours in the day for work, family, or friends – but we surely have time to spare when watching YouTube videos, playing with our cat, or endlessly scrolling through our Twitter feed.

Are there things that take time away from you?

Before you blame your demanding boss or the limited hours in the day, you should look within yourself first.

Have you ever thought that perhaps you have beliefs that might be hindering your productivity? Do you let mundane activities take time away from you?

As the old Chinese proverb goes: “be careful of your thoughts for they become your words, and your words become your actions”.

4 Beliefs that take time away from your precious day

Here are the top four beliefs that a lot of people believe these days – and how they take time away from us and the things that truly matter.

1.) “I need to work overtime.”

Unless it’s absolutely necessary, experts advise against it because it’s detrimental to both the employee and the business.

If you’ve been doing plenty of overtime lately, you could already be experiencing some of its negative side effects, such as fatigue, chronic headaches, stomach upset, and signs of depression.

Aside from the health risks, you also reduce your quality of life and become dependent on your overtime pay. Instead of budgeting your paycheck, you see overtime as a convenient way to earn extra cash (when you could be channeling your energy into more creative side hustles

It’s a necessary evil in life – but you don’t have to believe that it’s the only way to be successful or to make more money. Unless required, always aim to leave the workplace after your shift.

Don’t let overtime take time away from vital aspects of your life, such as your relationships. Have coffee with friends or play with your children.

2.) “I can do it tomorrow.”

Tomorrow is a better day. But what if it doesn’t come? What if you become swamped with other tasks?
Procrastination is the bane of productive, successful people everywhere. Like the famous saying ‘there’s a time and a place for everything’, identify which tasks need to be finished today.
If you feel overwhelmed, create a To-Do list for the most important activities (i.e. finish the business presentation, walk the dog, go grocery shopping, etc.). This should help you stay in control during the day.
After all, tomorrow is a different day.

3.) “I can take several breaks.”

Don’t get me wrong: breaks are good. In fact, a 2014 study proved that employees become more efficient in their tasks if they take 17 minutes of break time for every 52 minutes of hard work.

However, unscheduled or unnecessary breaks could lead to slow output and wasted effort. If you know that you’ll be busy (but you still want to get home on time), strategically take breaks to keep your focus and energy up.

For instance: say you have a report due in three hours. Research and make an outline during the first hour, then pause.

Layout the details and make edits on the second hour. Then, take time away for a 5-minute walk. Lastly, finalize the presentation. Remember: your Twitter Feed can wait.

4.) “I’ll check my email first.”

You have probably heard of the ‘Big Rock Theory’. It’s basically a story about tackling the big concerns of your life first (your Big Rocks) so that everything else (your Little Rocks) will fit into place.

Although this idea was originally intended to help people prioritize things in their life, you can also apply this for everyday use.

Let’s take the previous example of an important report due by the end of the day. On top of that, you need to check and reply to your emails.

Plus, your friends are expecting you for a couple of beers after shift. Now what? Finish your Big Rock (the presentation) first so that it’s quickly out of the way.

Once that’s done, you can simply take time away from the other stuff on your list. As long as there are no more huge surprises, you can end work on time to enjoy the rest of the day.

What beliefs take time away from your day?

You’re probably thinking: but life’s not perfect. In an ideal situation, you can come home early and have enough energy to spend with your loved ones.

Unfortunately no – on most occasions, we need to work overtime. Most days, we just feel like scrolling endlessly on Facebook.

If that’s the case, step back and objectively analyze if such feelings have an underlying cause.

Take the time to reflect on what you need to get done, what you want to accomplish, and who you want to be with.

Be careful with your ideas, because they could shape your actions. But whatever you do, don’t just let things take time away from you. Take back control right away!

Share your thoughts about things that drain your energy during the day with us in the comment section below.

https://everydaypower.com/beliefs-take-time-away/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 13, 2022

1. VDE Vanguard Energy ETF -28% Correction

VDE holding 200 day moving average

Holding Blue uptrend trendline going back to 2020

www.stockcharts.com


2. Small Cap Energy Fast -36% Correction

PSCE Small Cap Energy ETF

www.stockcharts.com


3. Traders Dumped Energy Derivatives Last Week at Fastest Pace Since Covid Crisis

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Investors dumped petroleum-related derivatives last week at one of the fastest rates of the pandemic era as recession fears intensified – Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 110 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to July 5.  Fund managers have now sold a total of 201 million barrels in the past four weeks, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.


4. Historical Market Performance After Big Two Quarter Drops

LPL Research

https://iplresearch.com/2022/07/07/reasons-for-optimism-as-second-half-gets-underway/


5. Global Private Equity Performance.

Irrelevant Investor Blog

Charts

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/07/09/talk-your-book-the-state-of-venture-capital/


6. Private Market Record Dry Powder

Dry Powder is Committed Capital that has not yet been Called

BII-2022-Midyear Outlook Report.pdf


7. Home Values Rolling Over in Expensive Markets

Bloomberg-Jonathan Levin

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-12/housing-inventories-may-not-save-prices-after-all?sref=GGda9y2L


8. Rent Inflation Showing No Signs of Slowing.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/


9. Jail Population -25%

A report out this week from USAFacts explored how the US jail population changed during the pandemic — noting that the number of jail inmates had fallen by 25% from 2019 to 2020.

Jailhouse drop

Jails differ from prisons in that they are usually reserved for those awaiting trials or serving sentences under a year for less serious crimes. The falling jail numbers, which followed a ten-year stretch of relative stability, were largely attributed to an increase in expedited releases and a fall in arrests, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Much of the reduction took place at the beginning of the pandemic as authorities looked to ditch some jailhouse detainees to prevent overcrowding, bringing forward the release dates of around 28% of inmates.

The fall in inmates varied depending on charges, with less serious misdemeanor charges seeing the largest fall — 45% year-on-year — across the country.

More broadly the nation experienced an equally-dramatic drop in arrests, with total arrests dropping from 10.1m to 7.6m according to the FBI’s Uniform Crime report, which also contributed to a smaller jail population.

www.chartr.com


10. Americans Have Stopped Moving

Scott Galloway@profgalloway

The tech exodus narrative is a distraction. The real domestic migration trend is … less migration. Specifically, people aren’t moving. In 1948 roughly a fifth of Americans changed residences. That number has been steadily declining since. During the pandemic, we read opinion pieces about everyone quitting their job and moving to Maine. There was a feeling that migration habits were changing; in reality the song remains (increasingly) the same. In 2021 only 8.4% of Americans moved — an all-time low.

It’s been happening for several decades, though nobody can figure out why. An aging population and a younger cohort described as the “complacent generation” are factors, but there must be more. Lack of portable health care and a decline in the lifestyle once sought in the West could also be explainers. My theory is that, like everything else, mobility has become a luxury item costs can only be borne by college grads (who are themselves increasingly anchored by student loan debt).

American mobility has been halved in three decades. Contrast that with China, where over 370 million people live somewhere besides their home region. (Another contrast: A mere 1 million foreigners live in China, placing it 54th among nations by immigrant population.) Why does it matter? Because when capital is not allocated to its best use, growth declines. A lack of mobility also affects culture, resulting in less dynamism, increased aversion to risk, and suspicion of outsiders. Yes, Covid spurred some relocation, but, like the “renewed” labor movement, that’s a blip that likely won’t reverse the secular decline. The problem isn’t that a tech Karen is leaving the Bay Area, it’s that not enough people are leaving any area. “Remote Work” should be called “Work from Home” as it’s decreasingly remote, just at home. Six in 10 people who move stay within their county; eight in 10 stay in-state.

https://www.profgalloway.com/migrant/