Topley’s Top 10 – October 05, 2022

1. Q3 Final Performance Grid

From Nasdaq Dorsey Wright

2. Hedge Funds are Record Short

3. Midcap and Small Cap Forward P/E Back to 2008 Levels.

Ed Yardeni –S&P still high…Mid/Small back 2008

4. Historical October Lows in Market

Callum Thomas Chart Storm

5. 30 Worst Performing Stocks in Russell 1000

Bespoke Investment Group

6. Since 2000 The Average Move on the 10 Year Treasury During Major Moves Higher is 1.8%……We Moved 3.4% Since August 2020

LPL Research

7. Global M2 Money Supply has Decreased $4Trillion

Morgan Stanley Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson -M2 for the “big four” economies: the U.S., China, the eurozone and Japan, peaked in March 2021, and thereafter, has decreased by $4 trillion, according to Wilson’s data.

Tracking the rate of change in the money supply for these economies is important, Wilson said, since it tends to be correlated with lower equity prices, as the chart below shows.


8. 97% of Stocks were Positive 3 of Past 5 Trading Days

This stock market comeback is unprecedented by one measure


  • Susquehanna noted that 97% of S&P 500 stocks are up for the third time in the past five trading days.
  • It is the first time since at least 2000 that the broader market index has seen such strength at the stock level.

Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., May 20, 2022.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters

The S&P 500 has done something it hasn’t in at least two decades, according to Susquehanna.

Chris Murphy, Susquehanna’s co-head of derivatives strategy, noted that 97% of S&P 500 stocks are up for the third time in the past five trading days. It marks the first time since at least 2000 that the broader market index has seen such strength at the stock level.

Investors watch the 97% marker because the index typically pulls back after a day with that percentage of its components up, Murphy said.

He also noted that prior to last week, this week marked the first time since Aug. 25, 2015 that 97% of S&P 500 components were up in two of the previous five trading days. After that, the S&P 500 rebounded about 13% before hitting a new low six months later, he said.

The relief rally seen this week follows a difficult last month and quarter for the stock market, as the major indexes slid and jittery investors grew increasingly concerned about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the probability of an incoming recession.

Through the week’s first two trading sessions, the S&P 500 is up more than 5%. Tuesday was the best day for the S&P 500 since 2020.

—CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

9. Wolf Street-Office Space Major Cities

Commercial real estate advisory Savills today released the first batch of its Q3 quarterly office market reports on the major markets in the US, 12 markets in total. Houston tops the list in terms of the largest share of vacant office space on the market, with an availability rate of 30.7%. San Francisco is second with 28.9%, and shooting higher. A big issue is sublease space. This is space for which companies are still paying rent to the landlord, but they’re not occupying it, and instead they’re trying to find sublease tenants for it to help defray the expenses of that space. These companies will price their sublease space aggressively since they don’t have to make a profit on this office space, but just want to lower their costs of holding it until the lease expires. Sublease space puts downward pressure on effective rents – even as landlords are typing to hold the line.

10. 3 Exercises to Nail Your Point-INC

Use these techniques to concisely communicate the big goal and how to get there.

Photo: Getty Images

One of the most important ideas running through my trainings, articles, podcasts, and books is this: To make a point, you must know your point. And knowing your point starts with knowing what a point is.

If you don’t have or know your true point, everything you say will be pointless — and neither your team nor you want that.

An effective point combines two elements:

  1. An articulation of the impact.
  2. A mechanism to produce that impact.

It isn’t the mechanism alone (“We will streamline our sales process!”) or the impact alone (“We must increase revenue!”). A solid point connects both, as in:

“Streamlining our sales process will enable us to double revenue by the fourth quarter.”

Getting from a non-point to a sharp point in your communications is not just a matter of choosing the right words but having the right mindset. As Albert Einstein once said, “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.”

Below are three easy exercises to help you build that understanding, construct meaningful points, and express them simply and sharply.

1. The “I Believe That” Test

Can your point fit into this phrase: “I believe that ________________” so that it forms a complete sentence?

Let’s take some random professional points and apply the test. If you took Language Arts in junior high, you know these are not complete sentences:

“I believe that increasing fourth-quarter revenue”

“I believe that the new online scheduling system”

“I believe that investing in cloud technology”

In forcing you to construct a complete sentence, this test will prompt you to produce lines like these:

“I believe that celebrity endorsements will increase our fourth quarter revenue.”

“I believe that the new online scheduling system will make our sales process more efficient.”

“I believe that investing in cloud technology will reduce our carbon footprint.”

Once you have a complete sentence, you are well on your way to making a sharp point. If you don’t have a complete sentence, reconstruct it so that it would earn you a check-plus in that Language Arts class.

2. The Formula

In my experience, effective points also follow a simple equation (far simpler than E=mc2):

“If we do X, Y will result.”

X is the mechanism, Y is the impact, and you can see how they manifest in the “I believe that” examples above.

“I believe that the new online scheduling system (X) will make our sales process more efficient (Y).”

Just make sure your X is a specific process, tool, resource, or commitment. Simply “doing better” and “working harder” will not suffice.

Keep your Y specific as well, and make sure you are expressing the most valuable or ultimate impact, not just a “badjective” or a short-term milestone:

Is the ultimate goal simply increasing website traffic or selling more product?

Is the ultimate goal merely spreading social awareness or increasing community activity?

Is the ultimate goal increasing financial contributions or saving lives with those funds?

Think of the people on the other side of the table or screen — perhaps a client, a customer, a partner, or your team. At the end of the day, what impact do they value most? The answer to that question should match your Y.

3. The Magic Words

To ensure my students and clients do more selling than sharing, I encourage them to adopt these point-forcing power phrases:

I propose

I recommend

I suggest

Similar to “I believe that,” these phrases force the creation of a true point that includes — maybe with mild tweaking — both a mechanism and an impact.

These phrases are also attention magnets. Saying “Here’s what I propose…” is a beacon for audience interest, and you certainly can’t say “I propose,” “I recommend,” or “I suggest” without proposing, recommending, or suggesting something. Magic!

These phrases are also valuable for professional development. Don’t immediately make a recommendation when someone you supervise comes to you with a status report or situation. Instead, ask them for one — “What do you recommend?” If you keep asking this question, sooner or later, that person will say, “Here’s the situation… and here’s what I recommend we do.”

I believe that people who use these power phrases are seen as leaders and eventually become them.

What happens when leaders elevate their broad ideas and topics into sharp points? They don’t just inform. They engage, they inspire, and they activate impact. That’s the power of having a point and the point of having power.

3 Exercises to Nail Your Point |