Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/whitepaper/systematic-fixed-income-outlook-summer-2022.pdf

4. Annualized Growth in Areas of Inflation

Blackrock

5. Agriculture in the U.S.

Barrons-About 60% of global food production comes from five countries: China, the U.S., India, Brazil and Argentina.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/companies-solving-world-food-shortage-stocks-51659046305?mod=past_editions

United States

The United States is known for its agriculture science and provides some advanced agriculture technology in the world. It proves a role model for many countries in the agriculture sector, and the United States agriculture is developing continually with increasing rates. Developing here refers to scientific soil, crop analysis, more innovative machinery, and increased use of computers. In short, we can say that the United States is the best country in agriculture technology.

Agriculture in the United States expanded by 5% every year after 1990. In addition to this, the production of every farming worker increased by 0.84% every year.
The United States produces the highest amount of timber. Approx 70% of the country’s forests officially owned with bounded logging permitted.
The United States is a net exporter of agricultural commodities. In 2007, the agriculture census recorded 2.2 million farms covering an area for agriculture.
In the United States, corn was the largest crop that produced an amount of 247,882,000 metric tons. And the 2nd one is soybeans with 74,598,000 metric tons. And the 3rd one is wheat that grew an amount of 69,327,000 metric tons.
The major crops in the United States are sugar cane, potatoes, coffee, sugar beets, and bananas.

https://www.tractorjunction.com/blog/top-10-agricultural-producing-countries-in-the-world/

6. Ag ETFs…VEGI–Hit $18 During Covid

VEGI-50 day went thru 200day to downside last month

stockcharts.com

7. MOO Agribusiness ETF Doubled Off Covid Lows.

MOO bouncing off -25% correction

Ryan Browne@RYAN_BROWNE_

www.etf.com

8. Countries Using Nuclear Power

Source: Statista

9. CNBC-Hackers drain nearly $200 million from crypto startup in ‘free-for-all’ attack

KEY POINTS

Hackers yanked almost $200 million in crypto from Nomad, a so-called blockchain bridge.
Blockchain bridges allow users to transfer tokens from one network to another.
They’ve become a prime target for hackers seeking to swindle investors out of millions.

Hackers drained almost $200 million in cryptocurrency from Nomad, a tool that lets users swap tokens from one blockchain to another, in yet another attack highlighting weaknesses in the decentralized finance space.

Nomad acknowledged the exploit in a tweet late Monday.

“We are aware of the incident involving the Nomad token bridge,” the startup said. “We are currently investigating and will provide updates when we have them.”

It’s not entirely clear how the attack was orchestrated, or if Nomad plans to reimburse users who lost tokens in the attack. The company, which markets itself as a “secure cross-chain messaging” service, wasn’t immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.

Blockchain security experts described the exploit as a “free-for-all.” Anyone with knowledge of the exploit and how it worked could seize on the flaw and withdraw an amount of tokens from Nomad — sort of like a cash machine spewing out money at the tap of a button.

It started with an upgrade to Nomad’s code. One part of the code was marked as valid whenever users decided to initiate a transfer, which allowed thieves to withdraw more assets than were deposited into the platform. Once other attackers cottoned on to what was going on, they deployed armies of bots to carry out copycat attacks.

“Without prior programming experience, any user could simply copy the original attackers’ transaction call data and substitute the address with theirs to exploit the protocol,” said Victor Young, founder and chief architect of crypto startup Analog.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/hackers-drain-nearly-200-million-from-crypto-startup-nomad.html

10. The Difference Between Busy and Non-Busy People

WRITTEN BY JOSHUA BECKER · 20 COMMENTS

Have you ever noticed how “busy” has become the new “fine”? As in, when you used to ask somebody how they were doing, they would answer, “Fine.” But nowadays, everybody answers, “Busy.”

Sometimes, people say it just to sound important. But most of the time, the person legitimately means it. They’re busy. There are too many responsibilities and not enough time in the day nor energy in the body to accomplish everything they want to do.

Busy has become the default state for many of us. But is the state improving our lives? Certainly not.

Statistics indicate that 75% of parents are too busy to read to their children at night. A rising number of children are being placed in day cares and after-school activities. Americans are having a hard time finding opportunity for vacations these days. About 33% of Americans are living with extreme stress daily, and nearly 50% of people say they regularly lie awake at night because of stress.

This is a problem. Activity is good, but we can become too busy.

It doesn’t have to be this way.

While busyness seems to be the prevailing condition of the human spirit these days, it is not true of everyone. In other words, busyness is not inevitable.

Some people are not busy. They appear calm, collected, and in control… but still productive. They are enviable in the life they live. What do they understand about life that others do not?

Learning from the Differences

Over the past fourteen years of minimizing my possessions and embracing greater intentionality in life, I’ve given lots of thought to this question:

How do we unbusy our lives but continue to pursue a significant and productive life?

Over the years, I’ve learned a lot from watching others and embracing habits and practices in my own life.

There is a difference between busy and non-busy people. Here are some of the most significant differences I have noticed:

Unbusy people know their purpose.

Unbusy people have thought long and hard about the legacy they want to leave, the goals they choose to pursue, and the significance they wish to discover.

These purposes may change or evolve over the course of one’s life, but they provide boundaries and a road map for the way they spend their days and time.

Goals shape us and goals move us. When we become resolved in the goals we pursue, we are less likely to allow distractions to remain in our life.

Every day we are presented with countless choices of how to spend our time, our energy, our effort, and our money. The wisest of us recognize we have the power to choose (more on that in a moment). But more than that, we know what we should choose, because we are guided by our life’s greatest mission.

Unbusy people are adamant about saying no to things that do not align with their mission.

Of course, sometimes the choices are obvious (I was never good at hockey, woodworking, or automobile mechanics, for example). But the hardest work is done in the trenches.

Staying on mission is about learning to say no to the urgent requests, the popular requests, and the countless opportunities in front of us each day—even good things that we could do. This becomes easier to do, the more resolved we become about our purpose in life.

What is your purpose? What goals do you have for your life? On what mission do you desire to live? And what plan have you developed to help you get there?

Pursue those with your heart and your life. And learn to say no to all the countless opportunities that will distract you from it.

Unbusy people know they have choice in life.

One of the most life-changing discoveries you can make in the pursuit of an unbusy life is the reality that busyness is a decision we make. We are never forced into a lifestyle of busyness.

We control our days. Our hours and our schedules are determined by us.

Greg McKeown, in his book Essentialism, says it this way: “No one can take away your right to choose. You can’t even give it away if you want. You can only forget that you have the power to decide.”

Now, this reality that we always have a choice in life doesn’t mean that there aren’t some external demands that may be placed on our lives. Anybody who has parented a young child knows this to be the case.

But in almost every case, when you get down to it, it is a decision that we made to put ourselves in that situation. You may have demands on your time from a boss, but your choice to stay in that job is yours. A newborn baby may require your time for a period of time, but what pursuit in life is more significant than raising your child?

You are not a victim and you are not a martyr. You need to show up in your life. In fact, you are the only one who can. You always have a choice. Unbusy people understand this and walk in that reality.

Unbusy people say no to almost everything.

Unbusy people know they can achieve more by doing less. Seneca wrote, “Everybody agrees that no one pursuit can be successfully followed by a man who is preoccupied with many things.”

Warren Buffett is credited as saying it this way: “The difference between successful people and very successful people is that very successful people say ‘no’ to almost everything.”

Now, your definition of very successfulmay be different than Warren Buffett’s, but the truth remains the same. If you desire to be successful in your most valued pursuits, you need to say no to the less important pursuits that distract you from them.

Recognize the inherent value in the word no. Learning to say no to less important commitments opens your life to pursue the most important.

Overcome your fear of saying no by reminding yourself, What my family, friends, and world need most is the best version of me that I can possibly be, accomplishing the most good with the one life I’ve been given.

Unbusy people don’t get distracted by unfulfilling pursuits.

You can never accumulate enough of the things that do not lead to fulfillment.

If, by definition, a pursuit can never satisfy our soul and longing for meaning and happiness, it is a pursuit with no end—it will always demand more time and energy. No matter how passionately we pursue it, we are left empty at the end of the day.

I fear too many of our lives resemble this interaction. We search for happiness, fulfillment, and meaning in the wrong places. We have searched for happiness in a number of society’s greatest offerings and have found most of them lacking—or fleeting.

We have searched for happiness in a bigger paycheck… only to discover we immediately desired an even bigger one.

We have searched for happiness in a job promotion or recognition… only to discover the accolades don’t last.

We have searched for happiness in bigger homes… only to discover they are accompanied by burdensome mortgage payments.

We have searched for happiness in fancier cars… only to discover they get scratches and dings just like the others.

We have searched for happiness in alcohol and drugs and sex… only to discover the pleasure has disappeared by morning.

We have searched for happiness in large savings accounts… only to discover money can’t solve all our problems.

When a pursuit does not provide lasting fulfillment, we have two choices:

First, we can chase after it harder and harder, hoping it will eventually satisfy. Or second, we can reject that pursuit altogether.

Choose the latter.

The sooner we recognize these pursuits will never fully satisfy, the easier it is to unbusy our lives.

Surely, lasting happiness and fulfillment can be found somewhere. There is something deep inside telling us that pursuing happiness is not an entirely futile endeavor. We just need to start looking in the right places.

And the sooner we recognize that the pursuits above will never fully satisfy, the easier it is to unbusy our lives.

Unbusy people value the significance of rest.

One of the reasons many of us keep busy schedules is we fail to recognize the value of rest. Rest is essential to our bodies, our minds, and our souls.

Consider the benefits that rest offers: a healthier body, improved life/work balance, less stress, deeper relationships, better opportunity to evaluate life’s direction, refreshed outlook, even increased productivity.

Yet, despite all the proven benefits, intentionally setting aside regular time for rest is a practice that has become undervalued and underappreciated in today’s culture. We have become overworked, overstressed, and exhausted.

Yet setting aside one day each week for rest remains a practice that fewer and fewer people practice regularly (never mind the idea of taking a two-week vacation).

Overlooking the importance of rest is certainly not unique to our modern society. But our culture has made it increasingly difficult to take rest without specific intentionality.

Rest is not laziness. It is essential for our bodies and spirit. See it as such and embrace it regularly.

Take time for lunch. Find space in your morning to sit quietly before starting your day. Invest in solitude, meditation, or prayer. Find opportunity for breaks at work in between projects. Begin right away cultivating little moments of space and margin in your otherwise busy day.

I work hard to keep an entire day of rest as an important part of my life and weekly routine. But it is an upward battle that requires relentless intentionality—we live in a culture that has far too often underappreciated its value.

Schedule rest on your calendar. Then guard it at all costs.

The Miracle of Margin

If we are wise, we will take our lives seriously. We will seek to develop our talents and skills and grow in our abilities and potential to be our best.

We will realize, however, that this does not occur in a life that is burdened by an over-filled, cluttered, busy schedule. Joshua Becker

Joshua Becker is the WSJ Best-Selling author of The More of Less and The Minimalist Home. His new book, Things That Matter, is now available.

https://www.becomingminimalist.com/busy-not-busy/

Topley’s Top 10 – August 01, 2022

August 1, 2022

1. S&P Agriculture Index -40% Correction…Gave up all of 2022 Gains

50 day approaching 200 day to downside on chart

2. Natural Gas Bottomed Below $2 in 2020

Trading Economics Blog

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

3. Banks Traded Down to 1-1.25x Book Value in 2022 Sell-Off….Some Earnings Misses were Priced In.

@Charlie BilelloRallying on Bad Earnings

The big banks all reported a sharp downturn in net income during the second quarter, but expectations were low enough where the stocks have all moved higher since.

Powered by YCharts

4. U.S. Shale Producers Erasing a Decade of Losses

Bloomberg Kevin Crowley and David Wethe

US shale drillers are expected to post record second-quarter profits in coming days, reversing nearly a decade of debt-fueled losses.

The top 28 publicly traded US independent oil producers generated $25.5 billion in free cash flow in the three months to June 30, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In that space of time they’ll have made enough cash to erase one-fourth of what they lost over the previous decade

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-31/shale-profits-finally-blossoming-after-decade-of-steep-losses?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

5. Huge U.S. Dollar Moves vs. Euro and Yen Pullback this Week

U.S. Dollar to Euro

U.S. Dollar to Yen

https://www.redfin.com/news/real-estate-bidding-wars-june-2022/

6. Bitcoin Correlation to S&P Rolls Over Since May Highs.

Dan Morehead Pantera

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dmorehead/

7. Post WWII Productivity Revolution Led by U.S.

Scott Galloway–The World We Made

The ascent of the American economy after World War II, coupled with the advances of technology, brought unprecedented prosperity not just to the U.S., but to the human race. It’s tempting to let the costs of that prosperity obscure it, but a sober accounting of America and the world today would be incomplete without recognizing our enormous gains.

The world is significantly wealthier, freer, healthier, and better educated than it was forty years ago. In 1980, over 40% of humanity lived in extreme poverty. Today, less than 10% does. In 1980, 44% of humanity had no democratic rights. Today, it is less than 25%. A child born in 1980 had a life expectancy of 63 years. A child born today should live a decade longer. In 1980, 30% of people fifteen years and older had no formal education. By 2015, that share had been cut in half.

These were global gains, but America lay at the heart of them. U.S. innovation in everything from transport to advertising supercharged the consumer culture of the postwar era into an upward dance between demand and manufacturing agility.

The billions lifted from poverty since 1980 were largely in Asia, and their means of ascent was making consumer goods for U.S. and European markets. Those same economies are today converting to knowledge work and middle-class lifestyles, in substantial part on the foundation of digital technologies developed in the former orange groves of the Bay Area.

We tend to focus on things that did occur, but we shouldn’t overlook crises that were averted. The demise of the Soviet Union posed an apocalyptic risk. By 1989, the Soviets commanded 39,000 nuclear warheads and the world’s largest standing army. Managing the sudden collapse of one of history’s largest empires could have gone very, very badly. At one point, the Soviet government sold twenty naval combat ships for cases of Pepsi. But postwar institutions crafted and nurtured by the Western nations held firm.

For better or worse (it’s both), the headline change is increased global connectivity. The term “globalization” has been loaded up with the anxieties of our era, but it represents a profound change in the human condition beyond the concerns of the moment. Never before has human knowledge been so widespread, nor have creators, from artists to manufacturers, had access to such a breadth of markets—and competitors.

https://www.profgalloway.com/a-touch-better/

8. Pelaton Market Cap $50B to $3B

Dated chart but now $3B

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/business/dealbook/peloton-ceo-sale.html

9. Housing—Bidding War Rate Drops Below 50%

Redfin-The bidding-war rate dipped below 50% for the first time since the start of the pandemic in June as rising mortgage rates and inflation took a bite out of homebuyer budgets.

Nationwide, 49.9% of home offers written by Redfin agents faced competition on a seasonally adjusted basis in June. That’s the lowest share since May 2020 and the first time the bidding-war rate has been below 50% since that same month, when the housing market was at a near standstill due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. June’s bidding-war rate compares with a revised rate of 65% one year earlier and 57.3% one month earlier, and marks the fifth-straight monthly decline.

On an unadjusted basis, June’s bidding-war rate was 51.5%, down from 66.7% one year earlier and 62.5% one month earlier.

An offer is considered part of a bidding war if a Redfin agent reported that it received at least one competing bid. The statistics in this analysis are subject to revision. Data below on property type and metro area is not seasonally adjusted. Redfin’s bidding-war data goes back through April 2020.

Housing-market competition is declining because higher mortgage rates, high home prices, inflation and a falling stock market have eroded homebuyer budgets, causing some house hunters to drop out of the market. Roughly 60,000 home-purchase agreements were called offin June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage on record, with the exception of the start of the pandemic. The typical monthly mortgage payment for a homebuyer is now $2,387 at the current 5.51% mortgage rate, up 44% from a year ago.

“While the market is cooling, it’s not coming to a crashing halt,” said Shoshana Godwin, a Redfin real estate agent in Seattle. “House hunters who can still afford to buy should consider taking advantage of the slowdown given that there’s way less competition.”

10. 5 critical thinking benefits for life success-Tips from Sharvi

Critical thinking is a helpful approach when it comes to handling issues, making decisions, arguments, and better communication. It can come to you naturally, or you may want to develop it as a skill and habit. Read my blog post for more…

‘Critical thinking is the analysis of facts to form a judgment.[1] The subject is complex, and several different definitions exist, which generally include the rational, skeptical, unbiased analysis, or evaluation of factual evidence. Critical thinking is self-directed, self-disciplined, self-monitored, and self-corrective thinking.[2] It presupposes assent to rigorous standards of excellence and mindful command of their use. It entails effective communication and problem-solving abilities as well as a commitment to overcome native egocentrism[3][4] and sociocentrism.’ – as on Wikipedia

As a self-improvement blogger who shares what I’ve learnt (formally and informally) and through life experiences, I’m pleased to write about this topic for my readers! Critical thinking is a vital skill that you can develop if you don’t already have it. Most important of all, it will support you in many spheres of life, both personally and professionally.

Here are 5 key benefits:

1. Careful consideration

Considering the matter and analyzing things properly are key to having a better quality result. When I find myself pondering about something that I know will have an important impact, I prefer taking a pen and paper to work on my thoughts and collect facts to help me better understand what I need to do. I then make use of what I’ve written down to work on things.

2. Well informed decisions

Certain decisions that you make have more impact on your life than others. Generally, all of them have some significance, however, some could be more crucial, based on the possible consequences. When I write things down to analyze, it supports better decisions as an outcome of the exercise. If I don’t know all the facts, I find them out.

3. Emotions

Putting on paper helps to release emotions in the form of gratitude journaling. Jotting down what needs logical evaluation, is also a great tip that has helped me much. While being grateful helps me feel better about what I already have in life, some decisions are best taken by setting aside emotions and taking a more rational approach for the best results.

4. Solve issues

There are various problem-solving frameworks and approaches. They are practical methods that are known to walk you through the steps of careful analysis, evaluation of different options, and finding the best alternative for yourself. I have used such methods and have seen that they bring out the best in me.

5. Better results

There’s no right or wrong way to make most decisions, especially personal ones. However, the quality of them could be crucial to the final result. When I believe that something is serious enough, I do take the time to think critically about it. This also helps to reduce any relevant potential risks as a part of the outcome.

If you already practice critical thinking, then you must have seen the gains that come with it. For those who want to learn and develop the skill, starting now is the best time to do so. Improving communication skills, making better decisions and arguments are vital to success!

Conclusion

Critical thinking is your ally in many areas of life. Use it to your benefit by honing an existing skill, or else, embrace it for the better. Would you like to leave a comment to tell us about your experience? If you know someone who needs to read my article, please share it. Thanks and cheers!

https://tipsfromsharvi.com/2021/06/15/critical-thinking-success/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 29, 2022

July 29, 2022

1. Buybacks Coming Back Next Week…Blackout Period Clears

2. Another Bull Market Stock Softbank Holding 200 Week Moving Average

3. Emerging Market Small Cap Holding 200 Week Moving Average

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-vowed-to-crush-inflation-with-higher-rates-then-the-stock-market-rallied-heres-why-its-not-good-news-11659037159?mod=home-page

4. One-Year Inflation Break Even 2.9%

Marketwatch-Using CPI inflation swaps, I calculated the one-year forward, one-year inflation break-evens — basically, the expected inflation between July 2023 and July 2024, which is represented in the chart above and sits at 2.9%. By Alfonso Peccatiello

5. Big Options Bets on Volatility Disappear

Options on VIX have been getting cheaper as investors give up bets on big shifts in volatility.

https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-july-28th-2022/

6. Hong Kong Stocks -10% in July

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gloom-returns-china-stocks-worst-093652919.html

7. Alphabet Revenue Breakdown

Alphabet is A-OK

It’s still all about Search. That was the five-word soundbite that you might have come away with had you combed through Alphabet’s latest quarterly update yesterday.

Although the company reported a slowdown, Alphabet still managed to grow its second quarter revenue some 13% in the last year. Whilst not a home-run performance, it was something of a relief following the recent reports of digital ad rivals Snapchat and Twitter, both of which disappointed investors. At the time of writing it’s been good enough for Alphabet shares to climb 4% this morning.

Still searching

Google Search, which still represents more than half of Alphabet’s total business, saw ad sales grow 14% in the most recent quarter — significantly outperforming YouTube which only grew 5%. That confirms a long-held theory that the search ad market might be less fickle than the social media ad market.

In a recession people might not click that flashy e-commerce ad on Instagram or Snapchat quite as much as they used to, but they seem to still be searching Google for “cheapest car insurance”, “restaurants near me” or “best value vacations” — all of which Google can monetize.

www.chartr.com

8. Until Now Mortgage Rates Have Always Been Higher Than Inflation

John Burns Real Estate This is clearly a “never before” moment in time.
Mortgage rates have always been higher than inflation.
Also, not how tight the spread has been since the Fed started buying mortgage-backed securities in 2009.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnburns7/

9. Coal Consumption Will Set a Record in 2023

Bloomberg Today’s Take: Coal is still king

This Sunday marks the 110th anniversary of the beginning of one of the most important energy transitions. On July 31, 1912, Winston Churchill, then Britain’s First Lord of the Admiralty, established a Royal Commission on Fuels and Engines to explore shifting the Royal Navy from coal to fuel oil.

Churchill convinced the navy to abandon coal-fired steam boilers. And over the next century, the world energy map transformed itself, first through the rise of oil and later to solar and wind power. The ecological movement became a major political force, pushing the fight against climate change.

And coal? It’s still there, king as always.

The International Energy Agency this week said global coal demand in 2022 will match the all-time high set in 2013 of about 8 billion metric tons. And next year, coal consumption will set a fresh record high.

It bears repeating: global demand for coal, the most-polluting fossil fuel, is still rising. The gap between the reality of the coal market and the well-intentioned words uttered at climate conferences has never been wider.

And it isn’t just absolute demand. Even as a share of the world’s primary energy, coal consumption remains robust. Last year, coal accounted for 27% of the world’s primary energy, a couple of percentage points higher than two decades ago, and about the same level as 50 years ago.

With demand rising – in part due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and supply stagnant, the world is paying a steep financial cost for coal alongside the environmental toll. In Europe, coal prices this week surged to a record above $400 per ton.

As important as the surge in spot prices is the fact that the whole forward curve has moved much higher in recent weeks. If in March, just after Russia’s attack, the market saw a short-term rally, now it’s betting on sustained high prices through the rest of 2022, into 2023 and even 2024.

It’s an increasingly expensive addiction the world just can’t seem to kick.

–Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-29/coal-is-still-king-of-the-energy-system-elements-by-javier-blas?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

10. Farnam Street Blog …READING TIPS-Taking Notes

The Blank Sheet

The single biggest change you can make to getting more out of the books you read is using the blank sheet method.

Over the years I’ve tested multiple approaches and this one works best for simplicity and effectiveness — it will 10x your comprehension overnight.

The blank sheet primes your brain for what you’re about to read and shows you what you’re learning.

Here’s how it works:

Before you start reading a new book, take out a blank sheet of paper. Write down what you know about the book / subject you’re about to read — a mind map if you will.
After you finish a reading session, spend a few minutes adding to the map with a different color.
Before you start your next reading session, review the page.
When you’re done reading, put these ‘blank sheets’ into a binder that you periodically review.

An example I made when I was reading a new book by Jeff Immelt—someone whom I was preparing to interview for The Knowledge Project.

Why does this work so well?

The blank sheet primes your brain for what you’re about to read and shows you what you’re learning.

When you first start with a blank sheet, you’re forced to search your memory and put on paper what you know (or what you think you know) about a subject.

As you read, you literally see that knowledge grow as you add new knowledge to the foundation. Often, you’ll even remove things you thought you knew.

Reviewing what you knew about a subject, as well as what you learned before a reading session not only improves memory and recall but helps connects ideas. Most of the early connections come from putting the authors’ raw material onto your foundation.

If you don’t know anything about the subject before you start, don’t worry. You’ll be able to borrow the scaffolding in the book to get you started.

As your cognitive fluency in a subject grows, you’ll start connecting ideas across disciplines, disagreeing with authors about specific points, and even developing your own ideas.

When you’re done with the book put the page into a binder. Review the binder every few months. This last step is essential for establishing deep fluency and connecting ideas across disciplines.

Conventional Notes

Forget the teacher that yelled at you for writing in your book when you were a kid. You bought this thing. It’s your property. You need to write in the margins.

Here is a very simple process to take notes while reading:

At the end of each chapter write a few bullet points that summarize the main idea or specific points. Use your own words and not the authors. Try and connect it to something in your life — a memory or another idea. Also, make note any unanswered questions you had while reading.
When you’re done the book, put it down for a week.
Pick up the book again and go through all your notes. In a lot of cases, reading your notes will be as good as reading the book again.
On the inside cover write out the main idea of the book using your own words. If you find yourself stuck, review your notes. (This is called the Feynman Technique). Writing is the process by which we often discover we don’t know what we are talking about.
You can even make a custom index on the back cover with themes or topics.
(Optional) Copy out the excerpts by hand and put them on the back of your blank sheet from above or type them out and put them into Evernote. Tag accordingly.

The point of both conventional notes and the blank sheet is to connect new knowledge to old knowledge and point out gaps in your understanding. Writing about what you read is a great way to see what you’ve learned.

https://fs.blog/newsletter/

Topley’s Top 10 – July 25, 2022

July 25, 2022

1. 10 Year Breakeven Inflation Rate has Dropped by 1/3

What does 10 year breakeven inflation rate mean?

The 10 year breakeven rate measures the difference or gap between 10 year Treasury Bond and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The 10 year breakeven rate serves as an indication of the markets’ inflation expectations over the 10 year horizon.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

2. Price to Sales and Price to Book S&P

S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio

S&P 500 Price to Book Value

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book

3. Highest Inflation in 40 Years…Nasdaq -30%+…VIX sideways no spike.

4. Lumber -50% from Highs

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-24-july

5. Homebuilders Hold 200 Week Moving Average

Barrons Cheapest Stocks in S&P—3 are Homebuilders-DHI, PHM, LEN.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cheapest-sp500-stocks-now-51653346274

6. Crude Oil Back to Pre Ukraine Invasion Levels

Bespoke Investment Group-Gas prices are of course driven by the price of crude oil, and in Friday’s Morning Lineup, we noted that crude oil prices have now fallen back to the level they were at when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine back in late February:

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/charts-of-the-week-from-bespoke-7-22-22

7. Earnings Estimates Developed Versus Emerging Markets

Earnings Outlook: Emerging Markets are usually a few steps ahead of developed markets given the heavy weightings in EM equities to traditional cyclical sectors (and hence sensitivity to the ebb and flow of the global economy).

As such, Developed Markets, and more specifically S&P 500 earnings estimates are likely the next shoe to drop in all this.

Source: @Mayhem4Markets Found at Callum Thomas Weekly Chart Storm

8. Most Common Statues in America

Washington Post Analysis by Andrew Van Dam

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/15/diversity-statues-highways/

9. The Inflation Adjusted Cost of Baseball Game 1960 vs. 2022…..Its Out of Reach for Working Class Americans

The Hustle Zachary Crockett

America’s favorite family outings are increasingly out of reach

https://thehustle.co/americas-favorite-family-outings-are-increasingly-out-of-reach/

10. Risk Tolerance is the Scarcest Resource at Most Companies.

From Farnam Street https://fs.blog

Risk, decisons, and scarcity-Jason Fried
This weekend I took a long walk with a fellow founder/CEO. We talked on the phone before, but never met in person. We found ourselves in the same city, so it felt like it was time to shake hands and catch up IRL.

He runs a company that’s an order or magnitude larger than 37signals, so his experiences, responsibilities, and perspectives are quite a bit different from mine. But as we’ve careened towards our own renewed growth phase — we’re currently larger than we’ve ever been, and still hiring — a few of his insights really resonated.

And one really stuck.

When he said it, I had to repeat it to make sure I heard it right. I wanted to sear the words in my brain so I both fully understood and wouldn’t forget.

He said “Risk tolerance is the scarcest resource in most companies.” I just love how that’s framed.

He then went on to say, and this one I’m paraphrasing a bit, that it’s the one of the things that sets founder-led companies apart from founder-less companies. Founder-led companies tend to take more risks. They’re more risk tolerant, less risk averse.

He also related this to company size. This one’s a bit more obvious — the larger the company, the more risk averse they are, even if they’re still founder-led. But it’s not just a pure function of size, which is the typical conclusion. No, it’s about distance. The further away a founder is from would-be risky decisions, the more likely those decisions will be safe decisions. It’s only natural.

It made me realize something I may have inherently understood, but hadn’t really realized was a unique responsibility of a founder who’s still running the show: It’s my job — my obligation, really — to fill the coffers with risk. It’s my role to make sure there’s an ample supply. No one else will produce it, and few will introduce it. The more it’s drained, the more it needs to rain.

While the company at large is focused on results, founders should be focused on taking chances.

There are certain risks founders need to take that others will not. Step function changes, for example. Things that can’t be explained by past results and experiments, but a hunch that the equation has changed. All the while keeping in mind that there’s a notable difference between taking a risk and putting yourself at risk.

So, if you’ve decided you want to take a risk, then take it. If you don’t, then keep talking about it — it’ll almost certainly talk you out of it. The safer option is the most abrasive — it’ll wear down the risk, polish the edges, and make the object of beautiful and smooth. But risk needs to snag, or it isn’t much of a risk at all.

-Jason

https://world.hey.com/jason/risk-decisons-and-scarcity-d4c7636c

Topley’s Top 10 – July 20, 2022

July 20, 2022