Topley’s Top 10 – June 07, 2023

1. Bullish IPO ETF Chart

One of the victims of 2022 speculative crash….IPO ETF showing life…50day thru 200day to upside….New 2023 High.

IPO ETF Chart breaking above a downtrend line going back to 2021


2. Yesterday….The Market Came Within a Few Basis Points of This Record Going Back to 2008

Marketwatch The last time the Russell 2000 gained more than 2.5% and the Dow finished the day lower was on Oct. 10, 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. By William Watts

Yesterday Russell 2000 +2.63% vs. Dow +3 basis points.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/small-cap-stocks-are-surging-tuesday-as-broader-u-s-market-sleeps-heres-why-83b78016?mod=search_headline


3. Russell 2000 Small Cap Returns Post S&P 500 Coming Out of Bear Market

Dorsey Wright We are working with a limited testing history here, as there simply have not been that many bear market environments for the S&P 500 since the origin of our Russell 2000 data in December 1978. Still, the data adds to the unique story the Russell 2000 has shown over the last eight months. Forward returns for RUT following the conclusion of the S&P 500 bear market have been mixed. Some periods show sharp upside movement, like 1982, 2009, and 2020. Others show more muted movement or weakness. Those returns also do not seem to be dependent on the extent of the rally leading up to the bear market conclusion.


4. America is Undergoing a Factory Construction Boom

https://twitter.com/SteveRattner


5. Last Year’s Laggards Chart

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/ria/insights/articles/big-tech-turnaround-can-it-continue.html?sfid=238885404&cid=81002566&et_cid=81002566&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=A-btn-BigTechRally


6. NVDA Still Well Below Revenues of Other FAANG Stocks

Bespoke-Recent high flyer and trillion dollar market cap club hopeful, NVIDIA (NVDA), may be one of the largest stocks by market cap in the S&P 500, but it is far from the largest in terms of revenues.

https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest


7. Argentina ETF Close to Double Off Bottom

Argentina has upcoming election that has free market conservatives leading.

MELI 21% of ETF

https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/argt/


8. Battery Electric Vehicles…Winner and Losers

The Global Adoption Of Battery Electric Vehicles Is Gaining More Traction

ARK Invest_Illustration_Sam Korus_Final_Circle 400 px

By Sam Korus | @skorusARK
Director of Research, Autonomous Technology & Robotics

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales surpassed 10% share of global light vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2023, as shown below. For the past three years, BEV adoption during the first quarter has lagged that in the fourth quarter, perhaps because of Chinese New Year. This year, however, BEV share broke that seasonal trend.

Not all automakers have participated in the upside. TeslaBYDVW, and GAC Motor, for example, accounted for ~75% of the year-to-date BEV sales growth on a year-over-year basis through April 20231—even though they account for only ~48% of total sales—while ~40% of automakers reported BEV sales declines. Macroeconomic headwinds seem to be separating the winners from the losers.

Source: Irle, V. 2023. “Global EV Adoption is on steady increase.” Twitter. Based on data from EV-volumes.com, as of June 2, 2023. https://twitter.com/viktorirle/status/1664633210158850049

https://ark-invest.com/research-center/


9. Interest Only Loans on Commercial Real Estate


10. It’s Terribly Hard to Change Our Minds

The Daily Stoic What new information could there have possibly been for Seneca, in 62 AD, when he finally broke with Nero? Nero had been deranged for years (as detailed in James Romm’s excellent book Dying Every Day). He had been blood thirsty for years, unfit for leadership since almost the beginning. Seneca knew better from the beginning–the man was a philosopher and historian and could not have been deceived for long.

We can sit here and judge. We can shake our heads in bafflement. But we really shouldn’t. The fact that Seneca eventually worked up the courage to participate in the Piso Conspiracy to unseat his former boss shouldn’t be dismissed as “too little too late” because later is better than never.

Because not everyone did come around. In fact, most people never do–then or now. When we are wrong, when we’ve had our blinders on, when we’ve been implicated in something, even complicit in it, it’s so terribly, terribly hard to change our minds. It is hard to admit error, harder still to admit guilt, and the hardest to take steps to rectify it.

Instead of condemning those who have the fortitude, the awareness, the conscience (or even the desperate motivation of last-minute self-preservation), we should celebrate it. We should make soft landings for them, so as to encourage future folks. We should, as Marcus Aurelius tried to do, forgive. We should sympathize and realize how easily we could be in their position. We should take note of their example and make sure we are learning from it in our own lives.

Judgment is easy. Changing is hard–hard enough that late is still better than never.

https://dailystoic.com/

Topley’s Top 10 – June 06, 2023

1. The Equity Risk Premium Chart in Unchartered Waters

The ERP is defined as the difference between the expected earnings yield and the yield on safe Treasurys, with a higher number meaning investors are being compensated more for putting money in stocks.  He said more than 100% of the reset on PE last year was due to higher 10-year Treasury yields. “Historically, that ‘moment of recognition’ for the market typically occurs when the forward NTM [next 12 months] EPS forecast for the S&P 500 goes negative on a y/y [year over year] basis.” The expected liquidity drain from the debt ceiling passage may help push this process along, he said. By Barbara Kollmeyer Marketwatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-sees-an-earnings-wipe-out-ahead-for-wall-streets-unloved-stock-rally-dec4b3be?mod=home-page


2. Non-Profit Tech Stocks Outperforming Since May 1

https://dailyshotbrief.com/


3. Record Shattering Inflows into Tech Funds

Dave Lutz Jones Trading Wall Street hasn’t been this bearish on the stock market in more than a decade. Tech shares are a different story – Hedge funds and other speculative investors have built up a big bet that the S&P 500 will decline, marking their most bearish positioning since 2007. At the same time, they are preparing for a rally in the technology-focused Nasdaq-100, with net bullish wagers in recent weeks approaching the highest levels since late last year, WSJ reports.


4. Crude Oil Charts

Crude oil held previous 2023 lows

Crude Oil held above 200-week moving average

www.stockcharts.com


5. History of VIX Levels

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright The below chart shows the average level of the VIX in each calendar year from 1990 forward. As we can see, there have been a few different environments of either amplified or reduced volatility over the last 20+ years. After seeing average levels north of 20 in 1990, the VIX retreated to an average level south of 15 from 1993 through 1995. We then rose in several consecutive years to an average level north of 25 from 1998 through 2002, peaking at almost 28 in 2001. Volatility then declined through 2006, before ramping up again at the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. By 2012, volatility from that crisis had largely subsided, and we saw eight consecutive years of an average VIX level south of 20. While we are not quite halfway through 2023, we have seen this year’s average VIX level drop below 20 yet again, potentially suggesting another period of dampened volatility could be around the corner. https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright


6. Follow-Up to Yesterday’s Private Credit Charts

Bloomberg-Defaults Rising Slowly.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/private-credit-poised-multi-trillion-052540561.html


7. The Fed Expansion During Banking Stress Already Reversed


8. Commercial Real Estate Loan Concentration at 700+ Banks

Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management. Two years ago, the number of banks exceeding the FDIC’s CRE loan concentration guidelines was about 300. Today there are almost 700, see chart below.   In other words, US banks have become much more vulnerable to a decline in commercial real estate prices.

Our latest credit market outlook is attached.


9. Baseball Shot Clock Working

www.chartr.com


10. The Four Attitudes of Calm

Research shows that four attitudes can dampen the fires of excessive stress. George S. Everly, Jr. PhD, 

KEY POINTS

  • Excessive stress arises from the amygdala within the brain.
  • Research indicates it is possible to dampen overactivity in the amygdala by changing attitudes.
  • Adopting the “four attitudes of equanimity” can reduce stress and change your life for the better.

Equanimity is a sense of calm and composure. It’s the polar opposite of stress. Myriad posters, t-shirts, and greeting cards espouse the virtues of staying calm, especially when adversity strikes. Actually doing so remains a challenge for many of us. It may be that adopting four fundamental attitudes can help you dampen, even extinguish, the fires of excessive stress and develop the equanimity so many seek but so few actually achieve.

The Raging Inferno

So, from whence do the fires of human distress arise? With the risk of oversimplification, the anatomical center of human stress is the limbic system. In 1952, Paul MacLean coined the term “limbic system” to refer to the functionally integrated system responsible for human emotion. Located deep within the center of the brain, it consists of the hypothalamus, amygdala, thalamus, and hippocampus. Of these four components, the amygdala is of greatest interest to our discussion. The amygdala consists of two almond-shaped anatomic nexuses. In addition to regulating autonomic physiology in everyday life, the amygdala also gives rise to the “fight or flight” response. It serves to alert and arouse the body in instances of fear, anger, aggression, panic, and traumatic stress. The amygdala is believed to be the primary culprit in the vast majority of stress-related physical illnesses. So, you can see that keeping the amygdala from becoming a raging inferno of hyperactivity would be desirable. But how?

Activate the “Cut-off Switch”

In his pioneering research, Herbert Benson (Benson, Beary, & Carol, 1974) asserted that the consistent practice of meditation could dampen the activity of the amygdaloid-based “fight or flight” response and reduce the likelihood of its over-reacting. Subsequent research confirmed his assertions (Everly & Lating, 2019). But perhaps there are easier and even quicker ways to dampen the flames of an overheating amygdala.

What’s the best way to put out a fire? Answer: Deprive the fire of fuel. What’s the best way to stop a broken waterline from flooding your house? Answer: Close the main water supply line. Pretty simple, right? Wouldn’t it be nice if there was a way to cut off that which fuels the fires of stress and anxiety? Well, there is. Research shows that attitudes can regulate stress and anxiety. By adopting four specific attitudes you can dampen the activity in brain regions from which stress and anxiety arise, especially the amygdala.

Four Attitudes of Equanimity

Research has shown that there are at least four attitudes that you can invoke that serve to reduce activity in the amygdaloid nuclei. Those are the attitudes I refer to as the “four attitudes of equanimity” (calm). They are: gratitudeforgiveness, acceptance, and hope. Functional neuroscience has shown these attitudes activate the angular gyrus, the anterior cingulate cortex, and prefrontal cortices, all of which have the ability to dampen acute arousal in the amygdala almost instantaneously. In doing so, they can provide you with an opportunity to pause, reflect, reassess, and perhaps react differently. More specifically, gratitude mitigates loss and envy. Forgiveness extinguishes anger and vengeance. Acceptance can quash worry, frustration, and misdirected protestation. And hope offers transcendence.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/when-disaster-strikes-inside-disaster-psychology/202306/the-four-attitudes-of-calm

Topley’s Top 10 – June 05, 2023

1. VIX Volatility Index Breaks Lower to Pre-Covid Levels

www.stockcharts.com


2. The Nonbank Financial System Controls $239 Trillion…..Half the World’s Financial Assets

Barrons-By Reshma Kapadia The nonbank financial system now controls $239 trillion, or almost half of the world’s financial assets, according to the Financial Stability Board. That’s up from 42% in 2008, and has doubled since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Postcrisis regulations helped shore up the nation’s biggest banks, but the restrictions that were imposed, coupled with years of ultralow interest rates, fueled the explosive growth of nonbank finance.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/shadow-banks-account-for-half-of-the-worlds-assetsand-pose-growing-risks-8f4b5961?mod=past_editions


3. Deal Funding in AI Space

Madison Faller and Jonathan Linden  JP Morgan Private Wealth


4. Sectors Drawdowns from Prior Highs

Equities: This chart shows sector drawdowns from prior highs.

Source: @bespokeinvest


5. More Data on Bank Insiders Record Buying of own Stocks

Zero Hedge Another measure of insider sentiment is the buyers-to-sellers ratio, which compares unique insider buying to unique insider selling. The average quarterly ratio for banks since 2011 has been 1.8 to 1, according to the report. So far in the second quarter, the ratio is at a record high of 14.7 to 1.

“Insiders in this group are expressing a strong belief that the regional-banking system as a whole is sound, that there’s not a danger of a wide-scale collapse,” Ben Silverman, director of research at VerityData, said in a Bloomberg interview.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/small-bank-insiders-are-buying-shares-their-companies-near-record-pace


6. Heavy Truck Sales Not Signaling Recession

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2023 03:08:00 PM

Note: “Heavy trucks – trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.” Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 558 thousand SAAR in May, up from 548 thousand in April, and up 20% from 464 thousand SAAR in May 2022.    Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.   Sales were strong in May.

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog. www.abnormalreturns.com


7. The Best Performing Stocks Over the Last 30 Years

@Charlie Bilello


8. Investments in Solar Power Eclipse Oil for First Time

WSJ Will Horner More than $1 billion a day is expected to be invested in solar power this year, which is higher than total spending expected for new upstream oil projects, the IEA said in its annual World Energy Investment report.  https://www.wsj.com/articles/investments-in-solar-power-eclipse-oil-for-first-time-c7bc6707#:~:text=More%20than%20%241%20billion%20a,annual%20World%20Energy%20Investment%20report.

Solar ETF bearish chart.

www.stockcharts.com


9. Estimated Office Space Occupancy

https://ritholtz.com/


10. Common causes of bad decisions: Farnum Street Blog

1. Assumptions based on small sample sizes 
2. Wanting the world to work the way we want rather than the way it does 
3. Conforming to expectations/authority/group (social default) 
4. Blindness to large trends (blind spots) 
5. Not asking, “and then what?”

www.fs.com

Topley’s Top 10 – June 01, 2023

1. U.S. Dollar Rally in May New 2023 High


2. Central Banks Demand for Gold Highest Since 2010

From Zerohedge.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/central-banks-are-buying-gold-record-pace-what-does-mean-inflation


3. AI Google Search Hockey Stick

Google Search trends for AI…Extremes…

Dan Stratemeier dstratemeier@jefferies.com


4. Chinese Internet ETF KWEB

KWEB bearish chart negative for year and 50day thru 200day to downside.

www.stockcharts.com


5. Shanghai to L.A. Freight Cost Chart

From Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/05/31/animal-spirits-something-has-to-break/


6. Percentage of S&P Members Outperforming S&P 500 Index at 30 Year Low on Chart

Liz Ann Sonders

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/05/31/mega-caps-reign-annsonders


7. QQQ vs. PKW Buyback ETF

Tech dominance shows in this chart …..QQQ vs. stocks that are buying back the most stock.


8. Renewable Energy in U.S.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-renewable-energy-and-battery-installations-in-the-u-s-in-2023/


9. China Overtakes Japan As The World’s Biggest Exporter Of Passenger Cars-Forbes

Michael Harley

The Buick Envision SUV is assembled at a GM’s assembly plant in Shanghai, China, and imported to the…

According to reports, China is now the world’s biggest exporter of cars. Credit tariffs, the war in Ukraine, and the changing automotive landscape that have positively affected the country’s car production.

Chinese officials have released figures showing the country exported 1.07 million cars during the first three months of 2023, an increase of 58 percent compared to last year. That number pushes Japan, with 954,185 cars, to second place despite increasing its production by more than 6 percent in the same period. Germany, which previously held the second spot for passenger car exports, was surpassed by China last year — it now sits in third.

China’s rise in vehicle production is due to increased global demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) as countries enact legislation limiting fossil fuel (combustion) vehicles and their emissions. The Asian nation is well-positioned to accommodate the demand. According to an International Energy Agency report released in July 2022, China produces 75 percent of the world’s lithium-ion batteries and holds 85 percent production capacity for anodes and 70 percent for cathodes. The report says that China’s first-quarter exports of NEVs, including electric cars, rose more than 90 percent compared to a year ago.

The war in Ukraine has also helped China’s exports. Western countries have imposed trade sanctions on Moscow, so the Russian government has turned to China for its vehicles. While Volkswagen and Toyota pulled out of Russia after the Ukraine invasion, Chinese carmakers Great Wall, Chery, and Geely — satisfying the new demand — enjoyed a market share jump.

Other automakers, such as Tesla, are benefitting as well. Elon Musk’s electric car company has a massive Shanghai manufacturing plant that sends cars to Europe and Japan — the Gigafactory is currently capable of making 1.25 million vehicles a year and has plans to increase capacity. While Chinese-built Teslas still aren’t being imported into the United States, last month, the company began making Model Y sport utility vehicles for export to Canada.

SAIC Motor, the Chinese state-owned automaker based in Shanghai (which owns the MG brand), and BYD Auto Co., Ltd., an automotive subsidiary of the publicly listed Chinese multinational manufacturer BYD Company (backed by US investor Warren Buffett), are some of China’s top exporters of NEVs.

It’s interesting to note that import tariffs, legislated by the US government, have prevented most, but not all, automakers from bringing Chinese cars into the US marketplace. However, tariffs have not stopped GM from selling its Buick Envision SUV (based price of about $35,000) in the US market. Last year, GM imported 36,407 made-in-China vehicles, with the majority being the aforementioned Buick SUV. The balance was brought in by Polestar and Volvo brands.

Don’t get the impression that China is throttling back its manufacturing capabilities. On the contrary, Xu Haidong, the deputy chief engineer at the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, has indicated that China’s target is to export a staggering 8 million passenger vehicles by 2030!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelharley/2023/05/22/china-overtakes-japan-as-the-worlds-biggest-exporter-of-passenger-cars/?sh=30a1b6632c4f


10. The Costanza Principle-2023 Market

The Daily Stoic-A classic episode of Seinfeld begins with George Costanza having a revelation. “Every decision I’ve ever made in my entire life has been wrong,” George says. “Every instinct I have in every aspect of life…is often wrong.” Then just do the opposite, Jerry says. “Yes,” Costanza says with excitement, “I will do the opposite!” For the rest of the episode, George has great success doing the opposite of what his instincts tell him to do.

This is now known as The Costanza Principle. And it turns out to be scientifically-sound advice. On a recent episode of the Daily Stoic podcast, the positive psychiatrist Dr. Samantha Boardman said,

“There’s so much messaging today about how you always have to be yourself and trust your feelings. But I tell people, “be un-you.” Like what is the opposite of what you feel like doing right now? Or who is someone you really admire—what would they do in this moment? And I actually think that can get us closer to the versions of ourselves that we would like to be…Separating oneself from one’s impulse, taking a healthy step back and gaining some distance between what you feel like doing and what’s actually going to help you—you’ll make a better choice.”

As we’ve talked about before, this is ancient advice. In his essay on clemency, Seneca tells the story of the emperor Augustus’ wife advising him, “Do what doctors do when the usual prescriptions have no effect: try the opposite remedies. Strictness has gotten you nowhere…Now try and see how far clemency gets you.” And Epictetus’ line was, “What assistance can we find in the fight against habit? Try the opposite!”

When the Stoics, the science, a wife, and a sitcom agree on something, only a fool would decline to listen. Try the opposite today. Be un-you.

You can listen to the entire interview with Dr. Samantha Boardman where she talks about her book Everyday Vitality: Turning Stress into Strength, how you can improve your life by changing small daily habits, why feeling stressed is not necessarily a bad thing, how to deal with catastrophizing, and more.

https://dailystoic.com